It might be time for a few people to start adjusting those mock drafts because there’s a growing sense that Drake Maye isn’t going to go as early as some people have been suggesting.
I’ve long been a sceptic of Maye’s. It’s not that I think he’s a bad player or doesn’t deserve a placing in the first round. I just think he’s been overhyped since day one. We started the college football season with the media constantly relaying that Caleb Williams and Maye were equals, or that either could go first overall. There was no evidence of that on tape.
Throughout the season — and I watched most of UNC’s games in 2023 — I just didn’t see what everyone else was seeing. In week one, I thought Spencer Rattler outplayed him even in a losing effort. In mid-October I wrote the following:
I feel like the only person who ever says anything non-gushing about Maye. Twitter was awash all weekend with nonsense about him going before Caleb Williams. That would be nuts. Williams had a carless performance against Notre Dame and it might act as a useful kick up the backside, given reports today that he might seek an ownership percentage in his first contract (come on). However, he is clearly also so unbelievably talented and the rightful #1 pick next year. Maye is an intriguing player too but this idea that he’s a top-five lock is hard to fathom.
I went on to review Maye’s performance against Miami in that article, which highlighted some of the issues. There’s plenty of good where the physical tools shine and the risk-taking pays off. There were also too many head-scratching moments in 2023, too many ugly plays and he was far too inconsistent with his technique and his decision making.
It’s why I’ve consistently graded him as a fringe first rounder, with clear separation on my horizontal board between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, then Daniels and the rest. I have Michael Penix Jr and Rattler ahead of Maye. The physical tools are alluring but I genuinely believe he is someone who needs time and development before he can start in the NFL.
That thinking is now, seemingly, starting to permeate through the media after the combine — where many of the talking heads will have spoken to people in the know.
Mike Garafolo was on KJR today and mentioned that he’s hearing from multiple sources that J.J. McCarthy, not Maye, is generally considered QB3. There’s a lot of hype around McCarthy at the moment but I’d suggest this is partly a review of Maye and how teams likely feel uncomfortable taking him in the top-five, with the subsequent pressure that will come to start him quickly.
A month ago Lance Zierlein cited a source saying Maye could fall, comparing his situation to Will Levis:
NFL Draft Analyst @LanceZierlein appearing on The Move the Sticks podcast with Daniel Jeremiah & Bucky Brooks said that an NFL evaluator told him that he thinks that UNC QB Drake Maye could fall in the draft. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/VQc9jFSLwM
— WBG84 (@WBG84) February 4, 2024
For what it’s worth, I’d argue Levis was on a different level physically to Maye and had better examples of translatable tape. That doesn’t mean Maye will drop to the #33 pick — Levis had some injury history and was older — but it’s interesting when considering what might happen in April.
Bob McGinn has started reporting intel from his scouting sources. Here’s a quote from one scout on Maye:
“He really didn’t raise the level of that program. That last game, I’ve never seen a quarterback who’s supposed to be a top guy have absolutely no answers for a team (North Carolina State). I always had concerns that he couldn’t raise his level, but that just cemented it. He shrunk under just the pressure and the gravity of what was going on around him. He’s got an arm. He can move around. But everything is just flashes. Nothing is consistent. It’s all flashes. Doesn’t have a very good feel for the game. There’s a little bit of Drew Lock in him.”
Here’s another scout, for balance:
“He’s still growing. They don’t drill fundamentals at all. But he’s big, good enough arm, smart, really accurate. I don’t know he’s going to be dynamic but guys like him win Super Bowls. He’s a pocket passer but he’s not a statue.”
Then there’s news from Tony Pauline today, where he initially reported that the Patriots are not enamoured with Maye and that teams are ‘hot and cold’ on the North Carolina prospect. In the latest ‘Draft Season’ podcast, he went a step further — saying, “Drake Maye is probably going to go in the middle part of round one.”
That would speak to the kind of fall Lance Zierlein was hinting at a month ago.
There are other things to consider here. Garafolo, again speaking on KJR earlier, said he would expect Michael Penix Jr to go in the first round. I spoke to a source at UW this week and asked for a best guess on where Penix Jr goes — and was told he won’t get past the #13 pick.
I can well imagine Penix Jr going before Maye, provided the medical checks are clear as reports suggest. He has an outstanding arm. Unlike Maye, he elevated Washington to new heights. He’s better placed to start quickly.
Then there’s McCarthy. It’s been interesting to listen to the analysis on him since the combine, where he didn’t have a great workout (contrary to what some are saying). As noted on Saturday, the big appeal here is going to be McCarthy the person and the fact he statistically performs well in key metrics such as third downs and scrambling completion percentage. Coaches like Sean Payton, who basically want a quarterback to work within the framework of the scheme and execute as they’re told to, will find McCarthy appealing. Denver trading up feels like a solid bet.
McCarthy isn’t an exceptional talent with amazing tape. He doesn’t seem, to me, like someone who will do what you want a top-level quarterback to do and occasionally win a big game with his arm and drag his team over the line. In a desperate quarterback driven league, though, someone will take him for the intangible and ‘money-down’ qualities and hope that he’ll be consistent — emotionally and performance wise.
And yes — I do think some teams will convince themselves that the immensely charismatic and likeable McCarthy has comparable personality traits, not to mention the same winning habit, as a certain other Michigan QB — even if that’s a fairly desperate reach. Thus, McCarthy going ahead of Maye suddenly feels plausible and perhaps very likely.
This could quickly become an ‘elite two’ at quarterback, with Williams now the consensus #1 pick (he always was) and Jayden Daniels being Washington’s clear selection at #2. Then things get interesting.
There’s increasing clamour that New England will trade down. They could auction the pick to Denver, Minnesota (who are very analytically driven in their front office) or the Giants before inevitably drafting an offensive tackle (people don’t realise Ron Wolf was a big trenches guy and his son may have a similar mindset). It’s also not a surprise that the Patriots seem like competitors for Baker Mayfield, given the decision makers in New England these days were big players and/or are linked to the people who took Mayfield first overall in Cleveland.
Don’t be surprised if Penix Jr is next off the board to a team like the Giants, Vikings or Raiders. It also won’t be a surprise if one of these three teams wait on Box Nix or Spencer Rattler (Rattler will go earlier than some think — possibly round two).
Where does that leave Maye?
It’s conceivable he is New York’s choice. They could sit him behind Daniel Jones for a year. Brian Daboll did wonders developing Josh Allen in Buffalo. However, Rich Eisen said the Giants ‘are done’ with Jones this week and if you take Maye at #6, good luck stopping the New York media clamouring for him to start right away. They might be better off going the Nix route — given his greater experience.
Would Minnesota or the Raiders draft Maye, forcing him to start quickly? Or the Falcons if they can’t land Kirk Cousins as many believe?
It’s very possible but the same kind of teams passed on Levis, despite the fact he was far more ready to start, flashing for the Titans as a rookie.
When John Schneider was asked at the combine why he’d met with Maye and Daniels, this was his answer:
“We have to be ready for anything. We don’t know if a certain trade will go down, or something happens, I mean, you guys have seen players fall in the past and we’ve seen teams be able to jump up and have successful trades moving up into the top-10 to draft guys and, so yeah, you just have to be prepared for everything.”
I think Maye is Schneider’s type of quarterback — big, creative, bit of a gunslinger mentality, unpolished. Maye’s personality also feels like it fits with the type of character Schneider would want to bring to this team. I suspect, given the huge amount of focus on character in the last two drafts, Seattle’s next big splash at QB will be for someone with A+ character. By all accounts, Maye seems to have that.
Schneider is also, I believe, someone who focuses on what a player can become. Even as a Maye-sceptic, I appreciate he has the tools to be excellent. It’s just about how much conviction you have that he’ll succeed, or how secure you feel in taking him early.
Being ready for anything, as Schneider said in the quote above, could mean being prepared for Maye to fall. If he fears the likes of Minnesota and Las Vegas, he might be willing to move up — just as the Bills did for Allen and the Chiefs did for Mahomes, Schneider’s two publicly known draft crushes.
Allen and Mahomes were considered rough diamonds, too. That’s easy to forget.
It could be ideal for the Seahawks and for Maye. For the team, it wouldn’t cost as much to move up into the #6-10 range than #3 overall. For the 21-year-old player, he could sit behind Geno Smith for a year while he makes critical adjustments to his footwork in preparation to start, while learning the playbook.
That could also be true for 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy, who might be getting rave reviews from Mike Macdonald and Jay Harbaugh. Both of course worked with the quarterback at Michigan. It’s hardly beyond the realms of possibility that they speak glowingly about McCarthy, or that the new Head Coach has told his new boss — this is the guy we need.
As I’ve talked about a lot recently, it feels like the Seahawks are very aware — now that John Schneider is in control — that they need a long term solution at quarterback. The non-committal answers about Smith, the meetings with the top QB’s at the combine, reporters like Peter King and Jeff Howe suggesting the Seahawks could be a team that has its eye on moving up for a QB.
There’s some smoke. We’ll see if there’s fire in the coming weeks.
Eventually though, they’ll need to do something. You can’t wait year after year for the ideal situation to fall into your lap. There are three ways to land a franchise quarterback. You can be bad enough to draft early (see: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert). You can get lucky with a mid or later round pick (see: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady). Or you need to be aggressive (see: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford).
I doubt the Seahawks plan to be picking earlier than 16th next year, in a class that is expected to have a thinner group of first round quarterbacks. If they are picking later than #16, or if there are fewer QB’s to go after, it’ll be harder to trade up. They could hope to be lucky but that’s not much of a plan.
Is this the year to ‘go for it’?
I firmly believe they are exhausting their options at quarterback in round one in this draft. If it simply isn’t possible, either because they can’t move up or because one they like doesn’t last to #16, they’ll have no choice but to crack on and take the best player left available instead, which would probably be a lineman. That would be fine.
I get the increasing sense, though, that Schneider does like the quarterbacks in this draft and is very open to finding a way to invest in one, knowing they have the ideal situation in Seattle to transition to the future rather than feeling pressure to throw a rookie in at the deep end.
This is going to be a fascinating off-season.
If you missed my interview with Michigan pass rusher Jaylen Harrell, check it out here. You can also listen to my latest visit with Puck & Jim on KJR, brought to you by Superior Linen, by clicking here.
