Introduction
This is a draft class that will please a lot of teams. There’s tremendous depth at offensive tackle (not something you say very often). We should see at least seven go in the first round. That’s virtually unheard of — two or three other offensive linemen could sneak into the first frame too. Ten in total is plausible.
The quarterback class will divide opinion across the league. There are plenty of positives with the top seven but also some question marks. Beyond Caleb Williams and probably Jayden Daniels, there’ll likely be incredible discrepancy in the way the quarterbacks are graded.
As per most years, it’s a loaded class at receiver. If you need a cornerback, there are some attractive options. On the other hand, it’s another incredibly thin tight end group and there are no running backs worthy of being considered in the first two rounds. It’s not a great defensive line class either in terms of depth of quality but a few names at the top stand out, especially Chop Robinson.
It’s been revealed that big name prospects Jer’Zhan Newton and Cooper DeJean will not do drills as they recover from injuries.
Possible storylines
A lot of people will be digging around for medical information on Michael Penix Jr, Payton Wilson and Laiatu Latu. All three have significant injury histories. It’ll also be interesting for teams to check on the recovery progress of talented players like Zak Zinter, Jordan Travis and Jonathon Brooks — who are still yet to return to full health and won’t workout.
There are many elite-level athletes within the draft class so expect some great testing numbers over the course of the four days. I’ll run through some names to watch and go position-by-position in the preview.
A year ago Anthony Richardson’s stock caught fire after a remarkable testing performance, highlighting the impact a good combine can have. Equally, #1 overall pick Bryce Young was the only big-name quarterback not to throw and Seattle’s top pick, Devon Witherspoon, didn’t do anything due to injury. So a good combine is not the be-all and end-all.
How different will things be in 2024?
The Seahawks have a new Head Coach for the first time in 14 years. Some of the previous data around trends might not matter any more. The fascinating thing about the 2024 draft is going to be seeing how different things are post-Carroll. There are some clear historical trends in terms of what they looked for at different positions. Will we see big changes, or will things generally stay the same?
One thing that’ll definitely be different is the Seahawks are not sending their coaches to Indianapolis, as they continue to install their new systems. We’re used to seeing many shots of Schneider flanked by Carroll, watching drills. This year, only Seattle’s scouting staff will be present. This isn’t unusual and an increasing number of teams are opting not to send coaches to the combine.
One non-combine specific detail to mention is how much intel the Seahawks already have. Grubb, Huff and Macdonald have recent hands-on experience coaching players from Michigan and Washington. Jay Harbaugh was coaching in Michigan last season. Not only that, presumably they have intel on other college players through game-planning, game experience and recruitment. This could be a big advantage for the Seahawks.
The combine is still badly scheduled
When they moved the event to ‘primetime’ several years ago, they damaged the combine. Previously the testing would start in the morning, giving players a full day to work. Now the on-field workouts start at 3pm ET on Thursday and Friday and 1pm ET on Saturday and Sunday. This means the drills last until around 9-10pm at night. Quite rightly, players are not overly keen on doing agility testing drills that late after a long day, when they are physically and mentally exhausted.
The short-shuttle and three-cone are really important tests for several positions. It’d be really simple, you’d think, to move these two tests to immediately follow the forty yard dash. Instead, an increasing number of players have opted to wait until pro-day or not bother at all. Only six linebackers ran a short shuttle in 2023 — a critical test for the position.
The NFL did bring things forward by an hour a year ago. For me, they could bring it forward another hour or two further still. This should be an event to produce the most data possible for teams looking to make educated decisions in the draft. It shouldn’t be an event catered for casual football fans to have on in the background, paying half their attention to. How many casual fans actually enjoy watching tedious cornerback drills anyway?
The other bugbear I have with the combine is the bench press. Last year they thankfully corrected the error of having it take place on the same day as on-field drills, leading to the vast majority of participants skipping it completely. However, it was moved to the day after on-field drills, when previously it was the day before. Again, a lot of players simply didn’t bother to do it because the test takes place on the same day they fly out of Indianapolis.
It’s also 2024. Isn’t it time we had a better test of power than a 225lbs bench press? Why are we testing how many times a 320lbs offensive tackle can push 225lbs in the air? This is cardio, not a test of power. Equally, why is a 200lbs receiver being asked to bench the exact same weight as a lineman? None of it makes sense. The powerball toss, which is used by SPARQ, would be a much better test of pure power.
Other notes
Last year it was mentioned the league might trial the use of body scans for measurements. The hope was that this year they wouldn’t have to measure arm length and hand size in the traditional, manual way — producing a more consistent, accurate result. We’ll see if that’s the case.
The tight ends are now working out on Friday with the defensive backs. The running backs have switched to Saturday, doing drills on the same day as receivers and quarterbacks. Given how long the defensive back drills go on for, Friday could be a long day. For some reason there are always too many coaches on the field for DB workouts, each wanting to run their own drill which is almost identical to the one prior. Hopefully this changes for 2024.
Workout schedule
» Thursday 29th February (3pm ET): defensive linemen and linebackers
» Friday 1st March (3pm ET): defensive backs, tight ends
» Saturday 2nd March (1pm ET): running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers
» Sunday 3rd March (1pm ET): offensive linemen, special teams
Player schedule
Each players goes through a six-day process. Day one they arrive in Indianapolis. Day two, they register, conduct a pre-exam, go through orientation and undertake team interviews. Day three includes a general medical exam and further team interviews. On day four, players speak to the media, have a NFLPA meeting and an ortho exam, then speak to more teams. Day five includes the on-field drills and measurements. The final day involves the bench press and then departure.
Horizontal board
Here is my latest updated board going into the combine.
Click the image to enlarge:
Defensive tackle, defensive end & linebackers
Arrival: Sunday 25th February
Team interviews: Monday 26th February
General medical exam: Tuesday 27th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Wednesday 28th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Thursday 29th February
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Friday 1st March
Defensive tackle
None of Seattle’s defensive tackle picks in the Carroll era were explosive testers, with an average vertical jump of 26.8 inches among the group. I’m sure the Seahawks would be very open to selecting a highly athletic, dynamic interior rusher. However, great testing has not been a precursor to being selected in the past. This feels like a position where tape and playing style has been king.
Of the nine defensive tackles drafted under Carroll and Schneider, seven had +33 inch arms. The 33-inch threshold has been consistent but it’ll be interesting to see if things change under Mike Macdonald. The Ravens have contributors without ideal arm length. Michael Pierce, Baltimore’s key nose tackle, has only 31.5 inch arms, while Broderick Washington Jr has 32.5 inch arms.
Under Carroll’s leadership they only drafted two defensive tackles with sub-33 inch arms — Demarcus Christmas and Jesse Williams, both late round picks.
Key tests
Short Shuttle, Three-cone, 10-yard split, Forty
Ideal size
+6-2, 300-310lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.50-4.65 ss
Positional assessment
At the start of the college football season there were high hopes for the position. However, several big names underwhelmed. Players who were being touted as first round picks in many mock drafts, such as Kris Jenkins, Michael Hall Jr, Maason Smith and Leonard Taylor, all had inconsistent or disappointing seasons. The two Texas defensive tackles, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, head the class and both will likely be top-35 picks. After that there could be a bit of a gap, with some depth (and boom or bust potential) to be found in rounds three-to-four. There are also some solid, rotational players available. I don’t think there’s a ready-made game-wrecker at defensive tackle in this draft. One note on Sweat — he didn’t weigh-in at the Senior Bowl amid concerns that he struggles to control his weight. He still performed very well in Mobile but it’ll be interesting to see if he weighs and measures here and how teams react if he doesn’t.
Interesting note
The Seahawks under Schneider have not used high picks at defensive tackle. When they took Jarran Reed with the 46th pick in 2016, they traded up using a fourth rounder. Afterwards John Schneider admitted they considered taking Reed with their first round pick (used on Germain Ifedi) and thought the value was too good. Typically they have preferred to target the defensive tackle position in the mid-to-late rounds. I do wonder whether the aggressive Leonard Williams trade was with a view to extending him long-term, partly because they thought this was a slightly limited defensive tackle class.
Best drills to watch
I like to watch the swim/rip drills for defensive tackles. I also like to watch how they get in-and-out of the bags with their footwork and how they punch and move. Who plays with violence, even in this setting? However, nothing at the combine compares to the 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl — and it’s worth watching T’Vondre Sweat’s highly impressive performance in Mobile if you missed it.
Five names to watch
T’Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy, Kris Jenkins, Ruke Orhorhoro, McKinley Jackson
Potential standout
According to Bruce Feldman, Byron Murphy has been clocked at 18 MPH on the GPS and had a team-best 455lbs front squat, while power-cleaning 375lbs. He is a contender for the athletic standout — but Michigan’s Kris Jenkins is the name I’m going to go with. Reportedly he can run a 4.33 shuttle and a 7.16 three-cone, while jumping a 9-8 broad and a 34-inch vertical. If he manages these numbers at +300lbs, he’ll be one of the stars of the combine.
Importance to the Seahawks?
This completely depends on Leonard Williams. The Ravens only carried five defensive tackles in 2023. If Williams returns to go with Jarran Reed, Dre’Mont Jones, Cam Young and Mike Morris, they might look for a cheap veteran or a mid-to-late round depth pick. If Williams signs somewhere else and they don’t replace him, defensive tackle would become a huge need and they might be more likely to draft someone with a comparable physical profile to Justin Madubuike, who had a good combine in 2020 and excelled under Macdonald in Baltimore. A name to watch who compares to Madubuike? I’d suggest Ruke Orhorhoro from Clemson.
DE’s, inside/out rushers or 5-techniques
This is another mixed bag for the Seahawks. They have sought difference-making athletes at this position, with the most obvious example being Malik McDowell — who they took with their top selection in 2017. At 6-6 and 295lbs he had outstanding length (35-inch arms), agility (4.53 short shuttle) and great speed for his size (4.85 forty plus a 1.69 10-yard split). His explosive testing, however, was relatively poor (28.5-inch vertical) — perhaps further highlighting that explosive traits haven’t been that important to the Seahawks for defensive linemen.
A year later they took Rasheem Green. At 6-4 and 275lbs he also had good length (34-inch arms), great agility (4.39 short shuttle) plus a strong performance in the sprints (4.73 forty, 1.65 10-yard split). Before drafting McDowell or Green, they selected Quinton Jefferson in 2016. At 291lbs he ran a 4.37 short shuttle plus a 4.95 forty with a 1.69 10-yard split.
They used a first round pick on L.J. Collier in round one in 2019. He ran a mediocre 4.91 forty and a 4.78 short shuttle. Collier was explosive (30 inch vertical, 9-10 broad jump) and impressed at the Senior Bowl.
A year ago they spent a fortune on Dre’Mont Jones in free agency. His profile included great length (34 inch arms), agility (4.53 short shuttle) and explosive traits (31.5 inch vertical, 9-2 broad). They also drafted Mike Morris — who Mike Macdonald coached at Michigan. Morris had a poor combine, sinking his stock into round five having initially been projected as a day-two selection.
Key tests
Short Shuttle, Forty, 10-yard split
Ideal size
DL — +6-2, 275-295lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.35-4.50 ss
Positional assessment
It’s really thin this year. I’m calling Jer’Zhan Newton a five-technique due to his frame but you could easily put him down as an interior rusher instead. He won’t do drills at the combine after recently having surgery. Darius Robinson will look to follow up a Senior Bowl that had people talking about a first round placing, while Washington’s Bralen Trice will likely surprise people with his workout. Gabe Hall at Baylor should be another strong tester and Brandon Dorlus was part of Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ last year. Justin Eboigbe and Keith Randolph both had decent Senior Bowl’s. There aren’t a lot of options.
Interesting note
The Seahawks have selected a defensive lineman with one of their first two picks in seven of the last nine drafts (Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor, L.J. Collier, Rasheem Green, Malik McDowell, Jarran Reed, Frank Clark). Last year, they took edge rusher Derick Hall with their third pick.
Best drills to watch
The two I’ll be watching closely is the figure of eight (where a player has to run around two hoops, picking an object up within the first hoop and placing it down in the second) plus the test where they have to run between a line of bags, slapping two away and spinning past one, before rounding a final bag and finishing. These drills show off change-of direction, ankle-flexion, power and quickness.
Five names to watch
Darius Robinson, Bralen Trice, Justin Eboigbe, Gabe Hall, Brandon Dorlus
Potential standout
When I visited Washington’s facility in November, I went in the weight room. In there they list top-three performers on big screens at each key testing drill. Bralen Trice, according to the screens, ran a 4.2 short shuttle at around 275lbs. If he can repeat that at the combine, his stock will sky-rocket.
Importance to the Seahawks?
It feels like the Seahawks have been chasing a great inside/out rusher ever since Michael Bennett’s departure. They’ve used high picks and lots of money to chase an impact player. If Macdonald’s scheme emulates the one in Baltimore, it might not be as high a priority these days. Every defensive lineman on the Ravens’ roster was +300lbs. It could mean they move Dre’Mont Jones on after June 1st when there’s a better saving available on his contract and seek a bigger, bulkier replacement.
Edge rushers
Twitch and length was the name of the game under Carroll and Schneider. They drafted five edge rushers in the first two rounds. Darrell Taylor couldn’t test due to injury — but we can well imagine he would be in a similar range to the other players listed below for the forty yard dash, 10-split and short shuttle:
Bruce Irvin — 4.50 (40), 1.55 (10), 4.03 (ss)
Frank Clark — 4.68 (40), 1.58 (10), 4.05 (ss)
Boye Mafe — 4.53 (40), 1.56 (10), DNP (ss)
Derick Hall — 4.55 (40), 1.59 (10), 4.20 (ss)
Free agent signing Uchenna Nwosu ran a slightly slower 4.65 forty and a 1.63 10-yard split. He also ran a 4.27 shuttle. All of the players here had +33 inch arms, too, aside from Boye Mafe who was a shade below. Macdonald’s use of Kyle Van Noy last season (31.5 inch arms) suggests length might be less of a deal-breaker going forward but we’ll see.
If they are going to retain these preferences (and let’s be honest, these feel like league consensus numbers rather than anything specific to the Seahawks), we need to look for 10-splits in the 1.5’s, shuttles in the 4.0-4.2 range and explosive testing in the vertical/broad jumps.
A 10-yard split in the 1.5’s is considered elite. Cliff Avril famously ran a 1.50. If you’re running a short shuttle in the 4.00’s with the size of an EDGE or defensive end, that is remarkable. Anything in the 4.2’s or 4.3’s is really good too.
Even Seattle’s later round picks all performed relatively well in the shuttle. Cassius Marsh (4.25), Obum Gwacham (4.28) and Alton Robinson (4.32) all excelled.
Key tests
Vertical, Broad, Short Shuttle, Forty, 10-yard split
Ideal size
6-4, 250lbs, +33 inch arms, 1.50-1.59 10-yard split, +35-inch vertical, 4.0-4.3 shuttle
Positional assessment
The class is led by the sensational Chop Robinson of Penn State. I think he’s a legit blue-chip talent with elite get-off, sensational bend and balance to round the edge and despite being approximately 255lbs, he has forceful hands and can battle at the line of scrimmage with bigger blockers. After that, Jared Verse isn’t too far behind as a rounded, more complete edge rusher. Laiatu Latu is a technician, while I think Dallas Turner at Alabama is a bit overrated. There’s a chunky mid-round group including the raw but talented Austin Booker, Alabama’s Chris Braswell (who could be the top tester), Marshawn Kneeland, Jonah Elliss and Gabriel Murphy. Xavier Thomas from Clemson could surprise people with the way he tests, Penn State’s other pass rusher Adisa Isaac has his admirers and Myles Cole from Texas Tech has remarkable length. It’s not a thin class but it could be better.
Interesting note
Only three pass rushers ran a 1.5 10-yard split in 2022. Mafe was one of them, plus Kayvon Thibodeaux and Amaré Barno. A year ago, YaYa Diaby, Derick Hall, Nick Herbig, D.J. Johnson and Tyrus Wheat managed it. It’s not many over a two-year span and it’s probably quite noticeable that the Seahawks have tapped into the group on each occasion.
Best drill to watch
For the reason noted above, it’s probably the forty for the 10-yard splits. But seeing how the players change direction and whether they play with aggression and heavy hands in the bag-drills will be key.
Five names to watch
Chop Robinson, Jared Verse, Austin Booker, Chris Braswell, Xavier Thomas
Potential standout
I should probably go with Chris Braswell here because he’s expected to deliver an eye-catching performance. However, I’m going for Chop Robinson. He’s the one top player you see consistently mocked into range for the Seahawks. Bruce Feldman has reported he’s capable of running in the 4.4’s in the forty, with a 4.22 short shuttle. He’s the player I want to watch the most from this group because his skill-set is somewhat similar to Micah Parsons and Von Miller.
Importance to the Seahawks?
On the one hand, they have numbers. Nwosu will return and join Mafe and Hall. Taylor is a restricted free agent, so we’ll see what they do there. However, none of the group feel like true game-wreckers. If a player like Robinson or Verse is available, they could be tempted to go to the well once again at this position. If not, they might do what Baltimore did and seek value in free agency by adding cheap, experienced players to the rotation. After all, Macdonald had the Ravens’ pass rush rocking without an elite edge rusher on the roster. He’s very creative in the way he disguises and creates pressure, setting up opportunities on stunts and confusing blockers. Having important players at linebacker might be more critical to Macdonald, rather than trying to find one great edge rusher. However, if they get a chance to draft someone like Robinson, he could be the destroyer of opponents they’ve been seeking for a long time.
Linebackers
The Carroll-era Seahawks tended to look for two types of player at linebacker — freakish athletes and players with great short-area quickness and agility.
Shaquem Griffin ran a blistering 4.38 forty. Kevin Pierre-Louis, Korey Toomer, Malcolm Smith and Eric Pinkins all ran excellent times (in the 4.44-4.51 range). Jordyn Brooks ran a 4.54. Bobby Wagner was a 4.4 runner at his pro-day.
Pierre-Louis, Smith and Pinkins all jumped +39 inches in the vertical. Wagner jumped a 39.5-inch vertical.
They also specifically targeted top-testers in the short shuttle. Here are the top-15 short shuttle times run by a linebacker since 2010:
Jordan Tripp — 3.96
Nick Bellore — 4.00
Ben Heeney — 4.00
Mike Mohamed — 4.00
Nick Vigil — 4.00
Kevin Pierre-Louis — 4.02
Stephone Anthony — 4.03
Cody Barton — 4.03
Dakota Allen — 4.03
Josh Hull — 4.07
Dorian O’Daniel — 4.07
Avery Williamson — 4.07
Shaq Thompson — 4.08
Ben Burr-Kirven — 4.09
The players in bold were either drafted or signed by the Seahawks during the Pete Carroll era. A third of the players.
Admittedly, Nick Bellore was signed as a full back. Even so, this isn’t a coincidence. It’s something I wrote about originally six years ago.
If there’s a linebacker who runs an exceptional short shuttle, under Carroll there was a decent chance he would be on Seattle’s radar. We’ll see if that trend continues with Macdonald running the defense. Neither of Baltimore’s two starting linebackers — Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen — ran a short shuttle. Queen ran a 4.51 forty, with Smith running a 4.50.
Much has been made of Smith’s impact on the Ravens’ defense and how Macdonald elevated the play of Queen. If there’s a position where he has a firm view on what he wants, this could be it. According to this breakdown of Macdonald’s defense, having two legit linebackers did wonders for Baltimore’s pass rush by setting up creative opportunities. Smith was said to be of vital importance due to his quickness and organisational skills.
Key tests
Forty yard dash, short shuttle, vertical, broad, three cone
Ideal size
+6-0, 230-240lbs, 4.4-4.5 forty, 6.70 three-cone, +10’ broad, 4.00-4.20 short shuttle
Positional assessment
As with last year’s draft, there are no superstars destined to go in round one. However, there is depth. Mike Macdonald is familiar with Michigan’s old-school thumper Junior Colson, so he could be someone of real interest. Payton Wilson has a serious injury history but he plays at 100mph every game and has been a tremendous impact player for NC State. Jeremiah Trotter Jr has NFL bloodlines from his father, Nathaniel Watson is another classic old-school linebacker who was used extremely effectively as a blitzer (21 career sacks in three seasons), Cedric Gray had a good Senior Bowl and Edgerrin Cooper is a terrific athlete but reportedly disappointed teams with his decision to attend the Shrine Bowl but not do anything on the field. After this group, there are a bunch of depth/special teams pieces (although good testing could elevate a player’s stock).
Interesting note
John Schneider mentioned recently about the interaction he had with the Ravens’ front office about players both teams liked in the past. It was interesting, because the Seahawks took Jordyn Brooks just ahead of Baltimore, who ended up settling for Patrick Queen in 2020. It might mean both teams rated Brooks highly and that could be indicative of a desire to keep him in Seattle.
Best drill to watch
Due to the importance of the short shuttle — look how the players work in space, backpedal and read/react. Quickness and change of direction is vital at linebacker.
Five names to watch
Junior Colson, Payton Wilson, Jeremiah Trotter, Nathaniel Watson, Cedric Gray
Potential standout
According to Bruce Feldman, Payton Wilson can run a 4.49 forty and managed a 4.21 in the shuttle last off-season. He can bench press 390lbs and test well in the jumps. Wilson plays every snap like it’s his last and his pursuit is something to behold. The medical checks will be so important for him, after a series of shoulder and knee issues. I would also add, despite loving him on tape, his frame looked quite lean and wiry at the Senior Bowl. It’ll be interesting to see how he compares to players like Junior Colson who weighs around 245lbs.
Importance to the Seahawks?
At the moment it’s absolutely critical. The only contracted inside linebacker is undrafted free agent Drake Thomas. It feels increasingly likely that Bobby Wagner won’t be back, while Brooks’ future is unclear. One way or another, they are adding to this position in the next two months. There are options beyond Brooks in free agency — including Tampa Bay’s out-of-favour (yet physically brilliant) Devin White, Carolina’s impressive and intense Frankie Luvu, Blake Cashman from Houston, Josey Jewell in Denver, Willie Gay in Kansas City and of course, Queen from Baltimore. One decent veteran and one reasonably highly drafted rookie could be the plan. Yet by all accounts it sounds like they need to find their version of Roquan Smith. Can Brooks do that? And if not, who can? Is Junior Colson up to the task and if so, how early would you be prepared to draft him?
Defensive backs & tight ends
Arrival: Monday 26th February
Team interviews: Tuesday 27th February
General medical exam: Wednesday 28th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Thursday 29th February
Measurements, on-field drills: Friday 1st March
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Saturday 2nd March
Cornerbacks
For years, everyone knew what the Seahawks liked in a corner. You had to have 32 inch arms. You had to be long and lean. Then, in 2021 — things changed. They drafted Tre Brown in round four. He was small (5-10, 186lbs) and had 30 3/8 inch arms. Carroll and Schneider talked about changing their approach, after experiencing the success of D.J. Reed before he joined the New York Jets in free agency. They also took Coby Bryant with his 30 5⁄8-inch arms in the fourth round, before confirming for good the change in approach when they spent a top-five pick on Devon Witherspoon with his 5-11, 181lbs frame and 31 1/4 inch arms.
Macdonald in Baltimore did a tremendous job fitting players in at corner. While he had Marlon Humphrey for all of 2022 and 10 games in 2023, he had to make-do otherwise and was able to convert safeties into cornerbacks, develop no-name players and had a lot of success. With the talent of Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen already on the roster, plus the potential for RFA Michael Jackson to return, he already has some good options. However, this is a deep cornerback class and with a defense preaching discipline, strong coverage ability and trying to create situations where the quarterback holds onto the ball — adding further talent could be appealing.
Key tests
Forty, Vertical, short shuttle
Ideal size
+5-10, 195lbs, +32-inch arms, 4.30-40 forty, +35-inch vertical
Positional assessment
Two positions that seem to be deep most years these days are cornerback and receiver. That’s the case again this year. We could see a battle between teams for the top-two — Quinyon Mitchell and Nate Wiggins — and Seattle’s #16 pick could be an attractive trade-up spot for teams trying to get to either. Terrion Arnold, Kool-aid McKinstry, Kamari Lassiter and Ennis Rakestraw Jr are all expected to go in the top-40. I’m a big fan of Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa and think he will go higher than many expect. Kris Abrams-Draine could provide day-two value while Notre Dame’s Cam Hart will be a top-tester. Michigan’s Mike Sainristil is a converted receiver who I went back and reviewed last Friday and I bumped him up two rounds on review. He’s feisty and athletic. Renardo Green is intriguing and the depth lasts into day three with players like Caelen Carson and Josh Newton. This is a good-looking group.
Interesting note
The Seahawks only drafted one cornerback between 2018 and 2021. They’ve drafted three in the last two years, including using a top-five pick on the position. There are certain positions where you need quality depth and cornerback is definitely one of them. Let’s hope the new trend continues and they keep adding, even if Macdonald did a good job fitting players into his scheme in Baltimore.
Best drill to watch
The backpedal drill. Watch to see how the cornerbacks transition and whether it looks effortless. Do they have loose hips and do they explode out of their breaks? Is the footwork smooth or clunky? Are they laboured in any way or do they look natural?
Five names to watch
Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, T.J. Tampa, Cam Hart, Mike Sainristil
Potential standout
Quinyon Mitchell can reportedly run in the 4.3’s and he said at the Senior Bowl he wants to ‘set records’ at the combine. However, I’m going to go with Cam Hart here. According to Bruce Feldman he’s been timed running at 23.01 MPH on the GPS and he’s jumping a 38-inch vertical and an 11-2 broad.
Importance to the Seahawks?
This will likely depend on multiple things. Firstly, is Michael Jackson coming back as a RFA? Secondly, how do they view Tariq Woolen after a sophomore slump? Thirdly, how do they intend to use Devon Witherspoon? Does he take the ‘Kyle Hamilton’ role in Seattle under Macdonald? They have numbers here, unlike elsewhere. But it’s a good enough class to draft a cornerback at some stage, even just for depth.
Safeties
After hitting on Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in 2010, Seattle didn’t have much success at the safety position under Carroll. Ryan Murphy, Winston Guy, Mark LeGree, Tedric Thompson, Delano Hill and Marquise Blair came and went. The less said about the Jamal Adams trade the better. Quandre Diggs was an inspired trade initially and has played generally well — but his cap-hit is now way too big for the level of production.
There was a real mix of physical profiles in the players they took, making safety one of the tougher positions to project. The only safety they’ve drafted in the first round (Earl Thomas) was a tremendous athlete. He ran a 4.37 at his pro-day after pulling a hamstring running the forty at the combine (while still managing an official 4.49). Blair, their next highest pick at the position, was also athletic and hit like a sledgehammer.
According to this review, safety is a critical position in Macdonald’s scheme. This is underscored by the fact the Ravens drafted Kyle Hamilton with the #14 pick and gave Marcus Williams a five-year, $70m deal. Prior to these moves, they spent big money on Earl Thomas (four-years, $55m).
It’s worth noting that none of Baltimore’s safeties were particularly fast. Hamilton ran a 4.59, Williams a 4.56 and Geno Stone a 4.62. I’m sure they didn’t deliberately look for slower players on the back-end but speed doesn’t seem that critical to the Ravens’ system.
It’ll be fascinating to see what the Seahawks do at safety. Jamal Adams appears a certainty to go but Quandre Diggs may have value for the system — it’s just his enormous $21m cap hit is unsustainable. If they cut both, Julian Love will be the only veteran safety on the roster.
Key drills
Forty yard dash, short shuttle, vertical
Ideal size
+6-0, 200-220lbs, 4.4 forty, +39-inch vertical, +10-5 broad jump
Positional assessment
There are numbers within the 2024 safety class but it’s low on top-end quality. I’m a huge fan of Wake Forest’s Malik Mustapha — who I interviewed last week (check it out here if you missed it). Washington State’s Jaden Hicks feels like a ‘Ravens’ type of safety to me. Intelligent, versatile, around the ball. Ditto Tyler Nubin, who equally feels like he’d settle nicely in Baltimore’s scheme. He’s a high-character, ‘dawg’ mentality type with gliding ability to cover ground and he can wear a number of hats at the position. After further tape review over the weekend, I think he’s the top safety in the class. Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo is also a favourite as a bigger, rangy, forceful strong safety. Miami’s Kam Kinchens has been overrated by many, although his stock seems to have balanced out from the initial first round hype. I think he’s more of a day three option, where there are plenty of alternatives too. They might be able to find characteristics that stand out beyond the testing numbers, for players who fit their scheme.
Interesting note
As much as I was underwhelmed by Kam Kinchens on tape, he has 11 interceptions in two seasons. Tyler Nubin had 13 picks for Minnesota in his college career. If you’re looking for players who turn the ball over, they are statistically the top-two in this safety class.
Best drill to watch
Any of the drills requiring the safeties to close in space and show off their open-field quickness and range. I also like the ‘W’ drill for this position.
Five names to watch
Malik Mustapha, Tyler Nubin, Jaden Hicks, Kitan Oladapo, Beau Brade
Potential standout
I’m going for Malik Mustapha. According to Bruce Feldman he’s been timed at 23MPH on the GPS and you only have to watch how he flies to the ball on tape. He reminds me so much of Budda Baker.
Importance to the Seahawks?
Absolutely critical, based on a potential lack of numbers and the scheme Macdonald uses. The Ravens invested resources into the position in a way that’d probably only be matched by Carroll’s Seahawks. If Adams and Diggs depart, they’ll need to do something here. Even if they keep Diggs, it’s very easy to imagine they will draft a safety at some point.
Tight ends
Seattle drafted five tight ends under Pete Carroll — Nick Vannett, Luke Willson, Anthony McCoy, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. They traded for Jimmy Graham in 2015 and signed Zach Miller to a big contract in 2011. In the last five years they also signed Greg Olsen and Gerald Everett to one-year deals and brought in Noah Fant as part of the Russell Wilson trade.
One thing links all ten players — agility testing.
Short shuttle and three cone:
Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)
Gerald Everett — 4.33 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Noah Fant — 4.22 (ss), 6.81 (3c)
Short-area quickness and agility appear to be important for any prospective Seahawks tight end so pay close attention to the short shuttle and the three cone.
This is an understandable approach to the position when you consider the best tight ends in the league also excelled here. They generally all have the same thing in common — strong agility testing and a good 10-yard split.
Rob Gronkowski — 1.58 (10), 4.47 (ss)
Travis Kelce — 1.61 (10), 4.42 (ss)
George Kittle — 1.59 (10), 4.55 (ss)
Mark Andrews — 1.54 (10), 4.38 (ss)
T.J. Hockenson — 1.63 (10), 4.18 (ss)
Sam LaPorta — 1.59 (10), 4.25 (ss)
David Njoku — 1.61 (10), 4.34 (ss)
It’s also pretty clear that in the modern NFL you need a dynamic, pass-catching tight end. Kelce and Kittle were in the Super Bowl. The Lions should’ve been in the Super Bowl with LaPorta as a top target. The Ravens lost Andrews to injury, but he’s been so important for them over the years. Look at the other playoff teams — Green Bay and Buffalo invested high picks in the position last year, Houston signed Dalton Schultz, Njoku has been big for the Browns.
Ryan Grubb’s offense in Washington might not have heavily featured a tight end in the passing game, short of Jack Westover’s incredibly clutch ability to convert in key situations — but the chances are he will need to have an impact TE in the NFL.
Key tests
Short shuttle, three cone, 10-yard split
Ideal size
6-5, 250-265lbs, +33-inch arms, +10-inch hands
Positional assessment
It’s not a good class. Brock Bowers is a legit top-10 talent in any draft but then there’s a drop-off. I think Cade Stover warrants a second round grade (more on him in a moment) while Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders clearly has a lot of potential. Theo Johnson and Ben Sinnott have shown promise — and I think Johnson will test very well. Aside from that, there’s not much to talk about. A.J. Barner is a good blocker.
Interesting note
In 2017 the Seahawks needed a tight end and were presented with a strong looking class. Unexpectedly, they passed on the position. They drafted seven players before George Kittle was selected in round five by the 49ers — despite his good combine and dynamism as a blocker. Seattle used five picks in rounds 3-4 without taking Kittle, who felt like a great fit for them. It was a huge error, on a par with selecting Rashaad Penny instead of Nick Chubb.
Best drill to watch
Catching technique is always important so look for how a player uses his hands. Is he cupping them to the ball? Cade Stover, on tape, does an excellent job here. I always like to see TE’s who can move naturally on seam routes and change direction during drills. Who’s running their route at full speed then tracking the deeper pass over the shoulder? Too many TE’s jog their on-field deep routes to make sure they catch the pass.
Five names to watch
Brock Bowers, Cade Stover, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Ben Sinnott
Potential standout
Brock Bowers is going to put on a show and cement his placing in the top-10 but I’m going to go with Cade Stover. I don’t think people realise how athletic he is. He’s a lot more fluid in the open-field than you’d expect for a converted linebacker and I think that hints at good agility. Plus, he’s a strong runner after the catch and he can accelerate. Keep an eye on his numbers.
Importance to the Seahawks?
Another big need position. Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are free agents while Will Dissly, with a $10m cap-hit, is a potential cap-casualty. Something needs to happen here and you’d imagine it could mean at least one veteran addition and possibly a draft pick too.
QB, WR, RB
Arrival: Tuesday 27th February
Team interviews: Wednesday 28th February
General medical exam: Thursday 29th February
Media & NFLPA meeting: Friday 1st March
Measurements, on-field drills: Saturday 2nd March
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Sunday 3rd March
Quarterbacks
The Seahawks are now two years removed from the Russell Wilson trade. When that deal was finalised with Denver, most people would’ve thought the Seahawks would be extremely active to find a young replacement. Instead, they continue to have Geno Smith as the assumed veteran starter — while they also constantly talk-up Drew Lock during interviews.
I’ll repeat what I said last year. Many fans get angry when you mention quarterback as a need for the Seahawks, following Geno Smith’s surprisingly productive 2022 and 2023 seasons. Yet as John Schneider stated himself — in both of those two seasons, there’s basically been a good half and a bad half. It’s been a mixed bag.
When Schneider sees a quarterback he really likes, I would imagine he’s going to pursue him aggressively. Think of all the talk about Patrick Mahomes being ‘the GOAT’ recently, as he lifted his third Super Bowl. Seconds after Kansas City selected Mahomes, the NFL Network was reporting that Seattle would’ve taken Mahomes in round one, despite having Wilson, if he’d lasted to their pick. Schneider loved Mahomes and probably rues not being more aggressive, as the Wilson drama was only simmering at the time.
If Schneider is waiting to be blown away by another signal caller, when he finds him — he’ll likely go and get him. I’m not sure he will see that player in this class and he might have his gaze firmly on someone who opted not to declare this year, who plays for Texas. Quinn Ewers feels like a Schneider type of QB.
Even so, the Seahawks are long overdue drafting a quarterback without necessarily needing to think they’re the next big thing in the NFL. For someone who once said his intention was to draft a quarterback most years, the reality is Schneider has taken two in 14 years. Yet with no second round pick and a cluster of holes on the roster — without much free agent money to play with — the Seahawks are somewhat backed into a corner again.
Either way — I believe it’s Schneider intention to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later and that the current situation is a holding position, not the solution — despite the OTT rhetoric on Geno Smith within certain sections of Seahawks Twitter.
There are some things to consider in terms of Seattle’s possible preferences — Charlie Whitehurst, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Drew Lock all have big arms. All but Wilson have prototype stature. Mahomes is creative and able to extend plays — while Allen, Lock and Wilson were all excellent athletes. Even Whitehurst could move around a bit.
Much is made of hand size and that could be important. Wilson has 10 1/4-inch hands. However — Mahomes only has 9 1/4-inch hands and Lock’s are even smaller at exactly nine-inches. It might be more of a bonus than a factor.
Key tests
Deep throws, Forty
Ideal size
+6-2, 220lbs, +9.5 inch hands
Positional assessment
With so many quarterbacks returning to school, the depth has taken a kicking. However, there’s a group of seven who could realistically be off the board before the end of day two. I spoke to a very experienced talent evaluator recently who wasn’t a big fan of the quarterback class this year but he still thought six could be taken in round one. It seems certain, based on the jungle drums around the league, that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy will be off the board before Seattle’s pick at #16. Then it’s anyone’s guess. It won’t be a surprise if one team has a top grade on Bo Nix, while another has him slated for day two. Ditto Michael Penix Jr, who will be hoping for good news from his medical checks. Spencer Rattler is a talented wildcard who will likely be grilled on mistakes made at Oklahoma. Good luck finding a late-round flier. Jordan Travis’ health could seriously hamper his stock, while Michael Pratt is worth a roster spot courtesy of a day three pick. Aside from that, good luck.
Interesting note
From the Senior Bowl, we know this is a quarterback class with big hands. Michael Penix has 10.5 inch hands, Bo Nix’s are a shade under 10-inches, as are Spencer Rattler’s. Joe Milton also has 10.5 inch hands and even Sam Hartman, at 6-1 and 209lbs, has 9.5 inch hands. Michael Pratt was the outlier with only nine-inch hands.
The best drill to watch
Everyone wants to see the top QB’s throw the deep ball. I used to think it was a waste of time at the combine but I’ve changed my mind. It’s a great way to compare all of the QB’s because they’re throwing in the same setting. You can do an apple’s for apple’s comparison — without all the home comforts of a pro-day. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will not throw in Indianapolis but Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and J.J. McCarthy have confirmed they will participate.
Five names to watch
Michael Penix Jr, Spencer Rattler, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy
Potential standout
Joe Milton will probably test the best but I think he’s a marginal NFL prospect. Bo Nix throwing a 60-yard flea-flicker at the Senior Bowl caught my attention — and he’s an all-round quality athlete so he could put on a show. However, it’s Michael Penix Jr for me. Let’s see that rocket arm at its very best, please. I know he can jump a 38-inch vertical from my time at Washington and he timed very well at the Senior Bowl on the GPS. He could surprise a few people with his athletic testing.
Importance to the Seahawks
On Saturday I was sent an email that started with, “I notice that you and every other anti Geno-ite…” and I stopped reading at that point. This is how silly the fanbase has allowed itself to become. It’s been this way for years. Everyone has to pick a side and go into an online battle. I think Geno Smith is OK. Not bad. I don’t think he’s elite or Seattle’s franchise quarterback. I think he’s a bridge. Apparently, that constitutes being ‘anti’ Geno Smith — or as others have put it, it means I ‘hate’ him or I ‘don’t know ball’. I really wish all of this rhetoric would get in the sea. I say all this in preparation for stating that I think finding a top-tier, elite quarterback will be Seattle’s biggest need until they have one, irrespective of the state of the rest of the roster.
Wide receivers
Last year was interesting because the Seahawks used the #20 pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, despite the fact he wasn’t known for long speed (he ran a reported 4.52 at pro-day). Prior to that pick, they’d only drafted three receivers who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster and they were all late round picks.
I’m not sure if this is an adjustment or an outlier. Smith-Njigba did run an excellent 3.93 short shuttle and a blistering 6.57 three-cone. That short-area quickness and agility more than makes up for a lack of 4.4 speed. He’s also a very naturally gifted player who, prior to an injury-hit 2022 season, was expected to be a top-10 pick.
Prior to his selection though, speed was critical under Carroll and Schneider:
Paul Richardson — 4.40
Golden Tate — 4.42
Tyler Lockett — 4.40
Kris Durham — 4.46
Kevin Norwood — 4.48
Amara Darboh — 4.45
David Moore — 4.42
D.K. Metcalf — 4.33
Freddie Swain — 4.46
Dee Eskridge — 4.38
Bo Melton — 4.34
Dareke Young — 4.44
Positional assessment
It’s another loaded class at receiver. You have three legit top-10 picks in any draft with Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers. I have 17 players on the horizontal board graded for day two. There will still be attractive options on day three. It’s just a tremendous group and it won’t be a surprise if multiple players develop into key, household names from this class. To highlight some potential combine standouts, keep an eye on Troy Franklin. His deep-speed looks fantastic on tape so he could run a blistering forty. Malachi Corley is a well sized, tricky receiver. Brenden Rice at USC is expected to have a great workout and Michigan’s Roman Wilson could light-up the combine with his testing. Washington’s other two receivers — Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk — will be worth tracking. A good set of testing results could secure a top-40 spot for Ladd McConkey. Xavier Legette should run a great forty. Keep an eye on Ryan Flournoy as a day three sleeper — he did well at the Senior Bowl and should test well. Finally, Christian McCaffrey’s brother, Luke, is also part of this great receiver class.
Interesting note
The Seahawks under Schneider have been prepared to draft receivers at any point in the draft. Smith-Njigba was their first pick in round one (if you don’t include the Percy Harvin trade). They’ve drafted four players in round two (Tate, Richardson, Metcalf, Eskridge), two in round three (Darboh, Lockett), three in round four (Norwood, Harper, Durham), one in round six (Swain) and five in round seven (Moore, Lawler, Ursua, Melton, Young). They’ve always taken this position seriously.
Key tests
Forty, vertical, catching drills (proper technique)
Ideal size
Just run a 4.4 forty or faster
The best drill to watch
Any drill that clearly shows catching technique. It’s extremely important. You want to see a receiver cupping his hands while presenting to the ball. No alligator arms, no fighting the ball or snatching at it. Watch the downfield throws and see who is good at high pointing the football, showing body control and tracking over the shoulder. Who is a natural hands catcher?
Five names to watch
Rome Odunze, Roman Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Brenden Rice, Ryan Flournoy
Potential standout
There are so many players expected to test well, including Jerry Rice’s son Brenden, Roman Wilson will put on a show and don’t forget Ryan Flournoy. However, I’m going with Rome Odunze. The word I got at Washington was he can run a 4.3 or at worst a 4.4 and that he will test well across the board. When you add that to his supreme body control, sure hands, sensational ball-tracking and A+ character — he might be WR1 on some boards. Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers will not test or go through drills.
Importance to the Seahawks
At the moment, not at all. D.K. Metcalf is a critical part of the team and they’ll hope Smith-Njigba will join him. Tyler Lockett is still on the roster and Jake Bobo had a good rookie season. Dareke Young had a forgotten 2023 season but showed flashes as a rookie. Will they try and salvage Dee Eskridge? If Lockett doesn’t depart to save money or retire, the chances are they might roll with this group.
Running backs
The Seahawks had a type at running back in the Carroll/Schneider era. Their runners were about 210-220lbs and they had explosive testing results (good vertical & broad jump). Since 2016 we’ve been able to pretty much figure out who they might like. Here are the players we identified between 2016-23 after each combine as a possible target:
2016:
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-1 broad
Kenneth Dixon — 5-10, 215lbs, 37.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
2017:
Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs, 37 inch vert, 10-10 broad
Brian Hill — 6-0, 219lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Alvin Kamara — 5-10, 214lbs, 39.5 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Joe Williams — 5-11, 210lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-5 broad
2018:
Saquon Barkley — 6-0, 233lbs, 41 inch vert DNP broad
Kerryon Johnson — 511, 213lbs 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Bo Scarborough — 6-0, 228lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-9 broad
Nick Chubb — 5-11, 227lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
John Kelly — 5-10, 216lbs, 35 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Lavon Coleman — 5-10, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Rashaad Penny — 5-11, 220lbs, 32.5 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Royce Freeman — 5-11, 229lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-10 broad
2020:
Jonathan Taylor — 5-10, 226lbs, 36 inch vert, 10-3 broad
Cam Akers — 5-10, 217lbs, 35.5 inch vert, 10-2 broad
Deejay Dallas — 5-10, 217lbs, 33.5 inch vert, 9-11 broad
AJ Dillon — 6-0, 247lbs, 41 inch vert, 10-11 broad
Zack Moss — 5-9, 223lbs, 33 inch vert, DNP broad
James Robinson — 5-9, 219lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Patrick Taylor — 6-0, 217lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-3 broad
2022:
Breece Hall — 5-11, 217lbs, 40 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Brian Robinson — 6-2, 225lbs, 30 inch vert, 9-11 broad
Dameon Pierce — 5-10, 218lbs, 34.5 inch vert, 9-11 broad
D’Vonte Price — 6-1, 210lbs, 34 inch vert, 9-11 broad
Isaih Pacheco — 5-10, 216lbs, 33 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Jerome Ford — 5-10, 210lbs, 31 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Kenneth Walker — 5-9, 211lbs, 34 inch vert, 10-2 broad
Kevin Harris — 5-10, 221lbs, 38.5 inch vert, 10-6 broad
Snoop Conner — 5-10, 222lbs, 29.5 inch vert, 9-10 broad
Rachaad White — 6-0, 214lbs, 38 inch vert, 10-5 broad
Tyler Allgeier — 5-11, 224lbs, 33 inch vert, 10-0 broad
Tyrion Davis-Price — 6-0, 211lbs, 30 inch vert, 9-9 broad
Zamir White — 6-0, 214lbs, 33.5 inch vert, 10-8 broad
2023:
Tank Bigsby — 5-11, 210lbs, 32.5v, 9-11b, 4.56 forty
Chase Brown — 5-9, 209lbs, 40v, 10-7b, 4.43 forty
Zach Charbonnet — 6-0, 214lbs, 37v, 10-2b, 4.53 forty
Tiyon Evans — 5-9, 225lbs, 30.5 v, DNPb, 4.52 forty
Evan Hull — 5-10, 209lbs, 37v, 10-3b, 4.47 forty
Bijan Robinson — 5-10, 215lbs, 37v, 10-4b, 4.46 forty
They drafted a player from each of the groups — Prosise, Carson, Penny, Dallas, Walker and Charbonnet. They eventually added Bo Scarborough too and admitted significant interest in James Robinson as an UDFA (John Schenider said he was on the brink of signing with the Seahawks, before opting for Jacksonville).
In 2021 the combine was cancelled and in 2019 we identified Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison, LJ Scott, Miles Sanders, Dexter Williams and Tony Pollard as possible options. Running back was an unlikely target that year with the depth they had at the position.
The two players they selected outside of the size ideal were Travis Homer — a sixth round pick with special teams value — and Kenny McIntosh — a talented but undersized player selected in the seventh round. We did name McIntosh as ‘one to watch’ in our 2023 combine preview due to his running style.
Again, it’ll be interesting to see if anything changes now that Macdonald has replaced Carroll as the Head Coach.
Key tests
Vertical, Broad, size
Ideal size
5-10, 220lbs, +35 inch vertical, +10 broad
Positional assessment
There are Seahawks fans out there who really don’t like the fact they used high picks on Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet in back-to-back drafts. They don’t have to worry this year because there aren’t any runners worthy of selecting that early. There are players who could test well and ultimately take on decent rotational roles, such as Notre Dame’s Audric Estime, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen or Kentucky’s super tough Ray Davis — but the rest of the class are basically depth picks. Some people really like Michigan’s Blake Corum. I’m intrigued to see how Frank Gore Jr gets on in Indianapolis and there are other players I like, such as Washington’s Dillon Johnson, Missouri’s Cody Schrader and TCU’s Emani Bailey (who had a great game at the Senior Bowl).
Interesting note
The Seahawks preferred explosive traits over straight line speed for some time. Christine Michael (4.54), C.J. Prosise (4.48), Robert Turbin (4.50) and Chris Carson (4.58) were better explosive testers than runners. Things then shifted a little. Rashaad Penny wasn’t quite as explosive but ran a 4.46. They admitted after the 2022 draft that they thought there were two top-level running backs — Ken Walker (who they drafted) and Breece Hall. Walker ran a 4.38 and Hall a 4.39. The pick of Charbonnet was a return to the past. He ran a 4.53 but was highly explosive (37-inch vertical) with ideal size and a tough running style. He screamed ‘Seahawks’ for two years at UCLA and it wasn’t a surprise they took him.
The best drill to watch
It’s nice to see the running backs cutting against pads while showing body control and quickness in the open field. You can tell who has it and who doesn’t in these drills and it’s where Walker really excelled two years ago — changing direction despite having a very muscular, thick frame. He looked like a beast and moved like a ballerina.
Five names to watch
Braelon Allen, Dillon Johnson, Emani Bailey, Frank Gore Jr, Audric Estime
Potential standout
Braelon Allen. He’s been on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ for the last two years. As a teenager he could power-clean 406lbs while clocking a 1.49 10-yard split. He also benched 365lbs. After adding another 10lbs since then, his workout could be off the charts.
Importance to the Seahawks
After spending two high picks on Walker and Charbonnet, the absolute maximum Seattle should be thinking here is a late round flier for depth.
OL, special teams
Arrival: Wednesday 28th February
Team interviews: Thursday 29th February
General medical exam: Friday 1st March
Media & NFLPA meeting: Saturday 2nd March
Measurements, on-field drills: Sunday 3rd March
Bench press & broadcast interviews: Monday 4th March
Offensive linemen
This has typically been the point in the combine preview where I introduce ‘TEF’ — the formula we created to calculate explosive testing. In the past it helped us identify potential O-line targets for the Seahawks successfully, using data points recommended by Tom Cable during his time coaching in Seattle.
I’ll still do a full TEF breakdown of the 2024 draft class because if nothing else, I think it’s interesting to see which players possess explosive traits and how the different players compare — both within the class and historically. However, so much has changed in Seattle and it’ll be difficult to determine how important explosive testing is for new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, new offensive line coach Scott Huff and new Head Coach Mike Macdonald.
It felt like they were trending away from explosive traits for a time. Charles Cross didn’t do a bench press or broad jump before the draft, so it was impossible to judge how truly explosive he was. However, his 26-inch vertical at the combine was not good. Generally you want to see players jumping in the 30-inch range. Meanwhile, Abe Lucas only scored a 2.73 through TEF. He was not an explosive tester.
Yet just when you think that’s the end of that, they go and draft Anthony Bradford (3.17) — the third best TEF tester at the 2023 combine behind only Peter Skoronski and Andrew Vorhees. Then they took Olu Oluwatimi (3.07) —- the fifth highest TEF tester. They also signed Evan Brown in free agency, one of the most explosive linemen in the league (3.64).
Perhaps they wanted explosive power inside and athleticism/quickness at tackle? We’ll probably have to wait 12 months, though, to have an idea what Grubb and Huff are looking for. Having two highly touted offensive tackles from Washington in this draft working out at the combine in Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten might give us a clue.
I’m going to run through the annual TEF explainer because like I say, I’m still going to calculate the numbers from this draft class. There is value in explosive testing. Most of the top linemen in the league are explosive testers, as I detailed in this article.
Pat Kirwan — a confidant of Pete Carroll — explained in this piece why explosive testing is important:
Every time a ball is snapped to start a play there is a critical element of explosiveness that takes place. When two players collide in an attempt to physically dominate each other, the athlete with the edge in explosiveness has the best chance to win the confrontation. It could be a blocker vs. a tackler, a tackler vs. a ball carrier, or many other examples of winning at the point of contact.
Explosiveness is defined in the dictionary as a violent release of energy, a sudden outburst. Football is a series of explosions. How do you measure it in athletes trying to play NFL football?
Take the vertical jump, standing broad jump and the bench press test results and add them together. If the combined score is over 70 there is a reason to consider the candidate at some point in the draft process for his explosiveness.
Kirwan’s formula is flawed because it diminishes the impact of the broad jump. A superb 9-7 only achieves a 1.2 point advantage over a below par 8-5. That’s why TEF was created — to do what Kirwan intended and measure explosive traits equally and emphasise their combined importance.
In recent years we’ve increasingly seen explosive testers drafted earlier than non-explosive testers. Despite Seattle’s scheme shift, I’d expect that trend to continue.
Here’s the TEF formula explained…
Tom Cable stated in 2015 that an O-line prospect would ideally achieve a 31-inch vertical, a 9-foot broad jump and 27 reps in the bench press. TEF uses these numbers to create an overall score for each individual offensive lineman:
1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF
Here’s what the ideal (31 — 9 — 27) would look like using this formula:
1. Vertical: 31 ÷ 31 = 1
2. Broad: 9 ÷ 9 = 1, cubed = 1
3. Bench: 27 ÷ 27 = 1
4. Overall score = 3.00
A prospect achieving the exact Cable ideal (31 — 9 — 27) will score a 3.00 in TEF.
The TEF formula is explained here. We also created a second calculation to account for the fact that jumping a vertical at 320lbs is considerably more challenging than jumping a vertical at 275lbs. Thus, we created a second formula (weighted TEF or wTEF) to account for weight:
Weight x TEF x 0.1
We can give each player a score that sufficiently emphasises their unique size. For example:
Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1
Phil Haynes, meanwhile, scored a 103.7. For more information on weighted TEF, click here.
TEF is not an attempt to determine who is a good or bad offensive linemen. It’s merely a calculation to judge explosive traits. While that’s only one part of any evaluation — it’s clear the league pays attention to it. That’s why I do, too. It might not shed any light relating to possible Seahawks picks any more but it’s interesting information to have from a league perspective.
Key tests
Vertical, Broad, Bench, Short Shuttle, Forty
Ideal size/testing
OT — +6-4, 305-320lbs, +33 inch arms, 4.90-5.00 forty, 4.40 ss
OG — 6-2/6-5, 300-320lbs, +33 inch arms, +3.00 TEF
OC — 6-0/6-2, 295lbs, 4.50 ss
Positional assessment
The combine might be saving the best for last. This is an epic looking offensive tackle class, with seven potential first round picks. If there’s an early rush on the position, we could see more than seven offensive linemen go on day one. That’s great news for a league craving improved O-line play. A lot of the first round picks, however, either played right tackle in college or they’re naturally suited to moving there in the NFL. We could see six centers go between picks 40-100, plus there are interesting guards available too. Most teams will come out of this draft having spent a pick in the top three rounds on an offensive linemen. There are too many to do a full breakdown but my favourite tackle is Taliese Fuaga, the one with the most upside is Amarius Mims, my favourite guards are Cooper Beebe and Zak Zinter, the feistiest center is, I think, Zach Frazier from West Virginia, while Graham Barton (converting from tackle) and Jackson Powers-Johnson will both likely be high picks. There are so many names you could mention.
Interesting note
The average short shuttle time among the leading, most respected centers in the league is a 4.50. If you take out Jason Kelce’s insane 4.14 short shuttle, it’s still a 4.56. When I interviewed Juice Scruggs last year he said he’d been working hard on his short shuttle times, following advice that it was viewed as an important test. It’s something to keep an eye on if you want the Seahawks to pick a new center — because Austin Blythe and Evan Brown both excelled in the test. Plus Washington and Baltimore have both preferred smaller, agile centers recently.
The best drills to watch
The mirror drill and kick-slide. In the mirror, two linemen used to stand opposite each other, with one acting as ‘the rabbit’. He’d move around and change direction and it’s up to the participant to stick. Now they don’t use the ‘rabbit’. It’s an important test of footwork, agility, mobility, balance, control and stamina. It’s also a good gauge of pass protection skills. In the kick-slide, it speaks for itself. How well do the offensive tackles get into position, how athletic do they do it, what’s the footwork like? I also like to watch the linemen move around the field from side-to-side so we can see who are the more fluid athletes. Abraham Lucas looked so smooth out there two years ago and it showed in the way he played as a rookie. You also want to look at how players bend — whether it’s at the waist or in the knees — and you want to see violent strikes on the pads, not high-fives. Overall though you aren’t drafting a big, gnarling offensive lineman based on what he does in shorts on the field at the combine. Tape and testing is king here.
Five names to watch
Tackle — JC Latham, Tyler Guyton, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Amarius Mims, Kingsley Suamataia
Guard — Troy Fautanu, Cooper Beebe, Christian Haynes, Brandon Coleman, Jarrett Kingston
Center — Graham Barton, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Zach Frazier, Sedrick Van Pran, Dylan McMahon
Potential standout
The word on the street is that Kingsley Suamataia, despite being a massive 329lbs, can run in the 4.8’s and will perform well in other tests too. It’s not unheard of for BYU to send outstanding O-line athletes to the combine. Suamataia could be one of the headline makers on the final day of testing, although I found his tape underwhelming.
Importance to the Seahawks
There’s no getting away from it — the Seahawks need to be better in the trenches. The problem is, they haven’t typically found solutions with high picks in the draft. Russell Okung was OK. James Carpenter was OK. Both first round picks. The jury’s out big time on Charles Cross. They didn’t develop Ethan Pocic. Germain Ifedi was a first round bust. Personally, I’ve been ready for some time now for the Seahawks to shift resource to proven, experienced, quality linemen in free agency. However, with hardly any money to spend this year, the chances are we’ll see another high pick on the O-line instead. Here are some other things to remember. John Schneider is a Ron Wolf disciple. Wolf was big on drafting for the trenches. The Seahawks have launched pretty much every ‘fresh start’ with a high O-line pick. Okung in 2010, Cross after the Wilson trade in 2022. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they launched the Grubb/Huff/Macdonald era with another big investment in the offensive line. Troy Fautanu, in particular, could be a name to watch. Not just because of the Washington connection — but also because his highly aggressive playing style seems to fit what Grubb says he wants up front. However, there are several very appealing first round offensive linemen in this class.
The week ahead
Throughout the combine I’ll be producing a live blog updating testing results, followed by a reflective piece at the end of each day. I’ll also be delivering daily live streams to offer thoughts and observations. Robbie Williams is attending the combine and will also provide his own analysis from Lucas Oil Field.
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do, including this 10,689 word combine preview — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon?
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You’ve outdone yourself. All I did was scroll down to the bottom and I just can’t believe you were able to get this put together besides all of the other articles you put up.
This is going to be a terrific read. Thank you sir.
I literally came to post the same thing. Dang man, you’ve outdone yourself! This is next level good. Such a good read! Can’t wait to report back from the combine!!
Pretty stoked to hear your thoughts as you watch it play out this week!
You son of a birdcatcher, now how am I going to get any work done today
Thanks Rob!
Rob,
This is great. It feels more and more like a cheat code for hawks fandom for following this site and being part of the community.
The accurate journalism. The hyper detailed reporting on prospects.
Mentioned this yesterday joking around with Loucity but if you don’t know more than say: penix, mccarthy ( thanks Salk…) and perhaps bowers by this point, welcome to SDB.
Because of you and your enthusiasm ( and just trying to keep up on my end!!) Pre drills there’s around 20 players I’m intrigued for Seattle to draft. Making it way less of a surprise when the mafe’s and the lucas’ of the world get drafted.
This is really an invaluable primer.
This would definitely be worth discussing in some radio spots to raise the general fan IQ.
Amazing job Rob thanks for everything you do
Well done Rob. A masterclass.
I’m going to try something different this year, reading about 2000 words at a time instead of all at once. Maybe I’ll absorb it better that way.
I tried to read it all at once this morning. This was me after:
https://tenor.com/view/huh-confused-dont-know-thinking-john-c-reilly-gif-16141237
I broke it into two parts as well.
Let me say that I am so happy that John Schneider is calling the shots. John Schneider is much more conservative than Pete Carroll. Pete Carroll made decisions based on emotion and not logic. Nothing against Leonard Williams. Awesome player! Great guy. However, in my opinion this was a desperate decision by Pete Carroll to save his job.
The trade for Jamal Adams (two first round picks and a third, you cannot be serious https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFIQ-1SUZnw ) had Pete Carroll’s hands all over it. This was another trade based on emotion not logic. Is John Schneider perfect? No. No one is perfect. In fact some call Bill Belichick the greatest coach of all-time. But yet Belichick has a losing record with out Tom Brady. But Seattle could not be in better hands with John Schneider as captain of the Ship.
Another heard what Brock Huard said this morning about J.J. McCarthy? Huard is absolutely 100 percent sold on McCarthy. In fact Huard thinks that JS should trade up to the 7 or 8 spot to take McCarthy.
I don’t think it’s nearly as black and white and that might be more what you (and many others) want to see, to provide more hope for the future. Carroll said the LW trade was all Schneider. I think Pete knew full well this wasn’t a playoff team, let alone a Super Bowl team, but John believed in him and thought getting LW was going to push the defense over the top and into contender territory. Clearly it didn’t happen. I think Pete knew he was losing the team and all the positivity in the world couldn’t mask it in those late interviews.
We’ll find out how Schneider handles things himself sooner than later. I’m cautiously optimistic, and I hope he thinks the team is in mid-rebuild and not a Superbowl contender.
Thankfully Huard is pretty bad at draft prognostication.
I’m excited for the future with slight reservations about this john/Pete ( thankful to put it to bed) debate.
John was in 710 recently and balked at the idea Pete was calling all the shots.
Came to say the same thing. One thing that Huard is pretty bad at is evaluating quarterbacks (go figure). Pretty bad at evaluating anything in the draft for the most part, but qb’s is the worst.
One guy that we should be able to rule out for Seattle is McCarthy.
Brock is very natural calling games. Has okayish ideas on radio though he needs to come save Salk on his own.
But the draft I’m not sure what he’s looking at.
I wonder how common that is with a lot if qb’s. I remember Leaf being way too high on Hendon Hooker last year. Klatt is alright. I think he’s pressing a little hard with the “all he does is wins,” take on mccarthy and teaching down a very select amount of throws to make something there.
His Penix to Miami take is both super hot and I’m not sure there’s a gm in the world bold enough for that move. To restart the clock in Miami instead if paying tua.
Leaf isn’t good haha(but I’d rather listen to him 50 x out of 50 over Brock), Klatt I love listening to him talk about football. But same thing with qb’s. They almost overthink it.
But you’re right, they aren’t the best at it. Brock can almost take it personally? Kind of makes me think of Elway: Elway wanted to find their elite guy, but at the same time couldn’t take anyone that might be good enough to threaten his legacy. Not that Brock has that mindset, but he just seems pretty far off, yet still adamant about his opinions.
Hadn’t hear Penix to Miami. A little interesting….
Yeah Klatt mentioned it in a very rough outline of a draft. I thought it was a pretty clever idea. Get a guy who can really press down the field and start again with the cheap contract.
And is also left-handed. A better deep-passing Tua.
Would be a shocking pick that has enough thought behind it to not be completely crazy.
Two guys whose opinions I don’t want: Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel. Brock is…meh!
Well if Pete was more or less calling the shots do you really expect John to come out and say yeah I’m just a tool of a GM and I let Palpatine I mean Pete call the shots and I just comply ad nauseum?
You’d have to think the truth is somewhere towards the middle. Let’s hope for the future of the team that it did lean towards Pete getting the bigger say otherwise the tough ride of mediocrity at best will probably continue until John is replaced…
I believe John used the word unanimous when describing how they picked. With the new coaching staff it will be different but will probably stick with the BPA approach which has been a typical Ravens approach over the years.
Huard said Bryce Young was the hands down best QB in last years draft. Didn’t like Will Levis at all. Nor Anthony Richardson. I like his knowledge but I wouldn’t put his assessment higher than Rob’s.
Not just puffing – it’s clear to me that Rob is the best identifier of QB talent we have in the seahawks ecosystem. It’s unnecessary to listen to anyone else.
Sadly, I think we’re passing on QB yet again…despite Schneider’s usual proclamations to the contrary.
Only if one of Rattler/Penix/Nix falls into the third will we bite. I think we will come away with an offensive lineman and WR early on. Trade down and let other teams chase needs. Unfortunately, in trading down we end up with the runt’s/risky ones of the litter, per the usual, and will just as likely flame out as become a starter.
It will be another boring year with Geno and ???. I’m not convinced Lock is will be returning as Geno’s backup yet again, thus all the PR and praise thrown his way. I think he moves on and we have to sign FA leftover. But at least the offensive and defensive schemes will be new and refreshing. Unless they bomb spectacularly — Grubb’s offense doesn’t translate to the NFL, McDonald can’t replicate the Harbaugh/Ravens schemes — then we’re in for a brutal year. But at least we may get a high draft pick and a shot at trading it all for Ewers?
Very intrigued where and when Rattler goes. Watching perna of that’s good sports talk him up the way Rob had previously done had me dreaming of a bold gm that would take him.
I think Seattle goes oline early and Dline late second or third. When I say trenches I mean trenches with an “s”. I understand what Baltimore carried but at the expensive of being highly reductive….the Ravens are a great defense and we are one of the worst.
It’s hard for me to hope the coaches get through to the dline guys, quite a few haven’t shown anything. We were talking about how thin the rotation was just a year ago and I don’t see it differently today even with a Williams signing.
If somehow we trade down and get Rattler in the third, that would be outstanding. Hopefully the combine brings some clarity to the QB draft situation.
I think they will shore up everything and punt at it for another year. Which is what I think they should do at this point. You and I are chomping at the bit for them to draft SOMEONE, but I really don’t want them to touch this class (other than Rattler, who I think teams will really regret passing on; I’d take him in any year). I like next year’s much better (me beating a dead horse saying this daily now).
I think it will be a…boring draft class? No flash, but guys that will be core players for years. Fix the backbone and the mean streak. Qb this year will probably be a wash.
I think I would be happy with a boring draft. A draft full of big bodied dudes who will just hold down the fort. I dont need to spend the rest of the offseason watching highlight reels of guys like Eskridge… Show me a couple pancake blocks and a big dude stuffing the run and I will be very very happy.
Geoff, just because Geno may be back does not mean we are shoe horned in for another boring season.
We have a new and fresh outlook on O with coordinators and assistants looking to fizz things up.
If we have Geno this year I’m not dismayed by it at all, given that the overall philosophy on the O is going to change.
Besides….I’m hoping he’ll be handing the ball off 30+ times a game anyway!
Great content – and also easy to understand and well-written. Thanks Rob! Fuaga or Chop at #16 or try and trade down and find that sweet spot where you can get value and depth. Personally, don’t think the board will fall right to get our QB for another year again.
Wow. That was an incredibly in-depth read. I don’t really watch college ball, so these types of articles are invaluable to me in understanding the strengths of the draft and how it might benefit Seattle. Keep up the amazing work!
Premium content here
trying to get better ideas of Mac and Grubb, and thinking about which players might be great fits for the scheme.
Continuing thoughts from yesterday and making 2 assumptions (L/W is resigned for 3/18(per) and Diggs is cut)
Absent Chop (or the like falling) it makes too much sense to trade down to recoup that lost second round pick. That positions the Seahawks to select their IOL1 (Barton), LB1 (Wilson), And either scoop up in QB (Penix/Rattler) or DT (Jenkins), who slipped in the round three, or grab one of the very talented safeties (Nubin, Mustapha, Bishop), who might who might be their safety1.
I’d almost argue that the entire wide receiver group is worth watching, the sheer depth this year, almost guarantees, that there will be wide receivers, dropping one or two rounds below where they’re graded. I’ve seen the likes of Corley, Cowing, Wilson, Rice, and McCaffrey, all projected in the fifth round, and various mocks.
Looking at the savings in moving on from Lockett after June 1, an opportunistic add might be the crown jewel on what could be a very good draft year.
I’ve been reading you since 2010 and perhaps before that on the seahawks.net forums, and this preview has prompted me to finally comment and say: thank you for your hard work over the past decade! This is truly the most exciting time to be a Hawks fan in the last five years at least, so it’s especially gratifying to get high-quality, in-depth content to read such as this piece.
It’s interesting looking at the list of LB’s with fast short shuttles. Only name from that list that jumps out at me is Shaq Thompson. The rest just seem to be average dudes. Doesn’t seem to be very indicative of finding quality starting talent at the position. Intuitively, a fast short shuttle time should indicate the lateral quickness necessary to play the position well. Just interesting that of the 5 on the list that the Seahawks have had on the roster, none appear to be starting LB’s in the NFL despite elite (relative to the position) SS times.
The rest of the names of the guys that Seattle didn’t get don’t inspire much confidence in short shuttle as a reliable metric for future success either.
Fred Warner ran a 4.28 SS, a 4.64 40yd a 6.9 3-cone, a 9’11” broad… he basically missed every metric and turned out to be one of the best ILB’s in the game.
The million dollar question is why did he pan out so well?
Rob mentioned in the article that it will be interesting to see which tendencies hold from the PC era. Because despite the lack of success with targeting insanely fast SS times, it was clearly a pattern.
If indeed JS was given control of the draft the last two years, we did see some picks that went against previous patterns. Charles Cross & Cobe Bryant in ’22. Spoon & JSN last year, along with Mike Morris and Kenny Mac who had terrible testing.
I’m not quite sure what conclusions to draw just yet, but I did notice that we passed on DT (biggest ‘need’ of 23) 3 straight times. No, not Jalen Carter. JSN just before Mazi Smith, Hall over Keeanu Benton & Charbonnet over Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. Of course, we then went and traded a 2nd for LW, so maybe they looked back on those picks as missteps.
LB is a tough position to analyze. All the speed and short area quickness doesn’t mean anything if you are a slow processor. Other things need to be looked at, such as average depth of tackle, reception % given up, or passer rating against. Give me a smart guy who loves to spend hours watching film.
Also, in regard to Fred Warner, of the top linebackers he has the fastest 10 yard split, 1.55.
I think you’re right, Doug. It is the most cerebral position on defense, I would guess. And you have to be a football player, as ambiguous as that is. If you can’t read what’s happening pre-snap or have some instincts it doesn’t matter what your SS is. Interesting point about Fred Warner. He has explosive quickness which makes a ton of sense. Closing that gap between you and the LOS and/or your coverage responsibility can be just as important as lateral quickness.
It definitely seems like they have used a BPA (at least by their evaluations) model the last couple drafts. And it kind of makes sense. You can’t teach speed and maybe they thought with Bobby Biceps on the roster they could coach up the rest. Just never quite worked.
I read the post from the RavenHawk Fan that Rob linked in the article and he talked specifically about Will vs Mike LB.
He mentioned how Queen was essentially a bust playing Mike and then looked great when they moved him to Will. He said finding a true Mike LB is key to the scheme MM wants to run. I’ve had my eyes on Cooper, but he may be better suited to the Will role (sideline to sideline, shooting gaps).
I’m starting to think Trotter or Colson could be the guy with Brooks at Will.
It will be interesting to see if they address ILB in FA.
Interesting! Yeah adapting to new scheme and what MM looks for in a player depending on position will be fun over the next few years. I wonder if he will be as much of a stickler for specific measurables as it it seemed the PCJS era was.
Wow this is incredible stuff! Thanks again Rob for making draft season special.
Amazing! You absolutely nailed the Combine preview.
Apparently Caleb isn’t planning to throw.
Throwing at the combine seems to hurt more than help.
The best thing about my wife insisting we buy a new laser printer is the fact that I can now print your Horizontal Board.
Having that in paper form as I watch the combine highlights and the draft is pretty much canon, at this point.
Thanks for this unending profusion of content, Rob.
Rob, this is really very best quality, kind of material that you show people and say “this is how it’s done”. Thank you.
Nice work Rob. Hope to hear you early and often on KJR over the next few days.
Great Combine primer, Rob! It’s so helpful to have such a resource for understanding some of the key metrics teams evaluate. Also like seeing some of Seattle’s past draftees by position. I didn’t realize how poorly the FO did on linebackers, or maybe it wasn’t considered that important by PC?? Given what a need that position is I hope we do better this year. I am interested to see how JJ McCarthy performs. After watching and comparing tape of him and Drake Maye, I think McCarthy could go before Maye. He has much better footwork and throws a nice, accurate ball to all levels. One thing I noticed about Maye is he often underthrows his receivers. He got completions, but he won’t get away with that in the pro’s.
And Bob, begat Robert, who begat Rob who lived for 800 years and had 1000 wives and 10 thousand concubines in the land of Lott. Ronnie Lott…
Goofy predictions for the combine:
1. Sweat won’t do any testing but will do positional drills opting for Big 12’s pro day in March.
2. Marvin Harrison Jr. Won’t run a 40. Ohio state has a fast track and he will opt for their pro day.
3. Jj macarthy will not be 6’3″ 202. He’ll be 6’2″ barely like an 1/8th of a inch and sub 195 pounds.
4. Bo nix will do everything at the combine. Penix will throw but will not do other athletic testing.
Will Sweat weigh in?
I think he needs to. I actually think it’ll hurt his stock. Then you’ll see a guy who had 8 weeks to focus and were it me I’d be concerned how he’ll be at camp.
Apparently, Harrison Jr. won’t even be AT the Combine, for interviews or otherwise.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/02/26/marvin-harrison-jr-ohio-state-star-receiver-skip-nfl-combine/72745674007/
Haha! Okay I’ll have to come up for some new ones.
How much hype is surrounding Harrison Jr? My first impression when I saw him play was WOW, Who the hell is that guy? I don’t understand why he has a completion percentage of only 58.8% which is 10 to 20 points lower than I would expect. I have questions and when he avoids the combine it just creates more questions.
Well done, Rob, you’re a beast!
Rob said:
This X1000 and not just the draft.
Thanks for all the effort Rob. Amazing breakdown.
Yup, this!
Wow! This is going to take a while to get through. Fantastic.
Just saw the Aaron Levine interview of MM. Sooooo noncommittal on Geno! Very strange. I really expected a different, more committed answer this time around. Basically just said, we are getting to know them when asked about Geno’s and Drew’s role in the future of the organization. “That’s a tough question and one that I can’t answer right now.” Anyone know if this was recorded before the restructuring of Geno’s contract?
Looks like it was recorded before.
So its John doing his stuff…. like it in a way and scary at the same time given the waste of trade and cap space in recent years.
Yeoman’s work!! Thank Mrs. Staton for us.
Rob, great work as usual and thank you for all the hard work putting this together.
What I am really curious about is how Schneider and McDonald look at players. Schneider and Carroll hand the traits they looked for, DeCosta and Newsome have done things in Baltimore. Does Macdonald want to stick with bigger DL like Baltimore had or does he want the chance to really design a scheme that he thinks can be even more dominant and slow down the McShannahan offenses.
Appreciate all the nice feedback guys — a quick favour, I’d love the massive amount of work that goes into this to be worth it with as many eyes on it as possible. So if you get a chance to share it around on other sites/forums/social media I’d be really grateful
I like Aaron fine, but how does a guy with regular, consistent access to the Seahawks not even know the issue that fans and reporters have been talking about the most?
It’s a major part of that interview! MM being noncommittal to his $30m QB is huge.
This almost has the smell of the lead up to Russ’s trade.
So many in the local media were saying they’ve heard nothing, that it’s not a real story, and in Clayton’s case stating that people were just plain stupid.
I keep thinking they have a team on the phone in constant contact. Just rolling along, keeping in touch, trying to figure something that’s amenable to both sides.
I’ve done a video on the latest non-committal interview by Mike Macdonald when answering questions about Geno Smith:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDfGMqEoWPo
Great analysis, Rob.
They’re definitionally pretty wishy washy, but if they trade him and Lock doesn’t re-sign, things start to get chaotic and interesting pretty damn quick.
I wonder if a Geno + conditional pick for Fields might be in the offing. Geno as a bridge for Bears. There has to be some heat on the staff there to win and Geno could walk in and run offense today. Bears could get rid of him with zero cap hit after a year and transition to whoever they draft #1. It makes sense for Bears but not sure Fields is that inticing.
The Bears will just start Caleb
And Fields is a big no thanks
Great video Rob!
I’m starting to think they don’t care if they draft a QB or go with Lock and a cheap veteran, I think Schneider wants to move on from Pete’s guy.
Macdonald talks about playing on the edges or having guys that can be difference makers, Geno doesn’t do either. Geno Smith played it safe, stayed within the system, which is what Carroll wanted and which is why he started.
I am starting to really think Schneider wants to clear out Pete’s guys from the roster so the new culture can really take hold. He could see it as Pete’s guys being an obstacle to the changes that are needed.
I could be totally off base, but just my read on what could be the thought process.
Above and beyond. Great work Rob. Thank you.
Great work! Essential info & every year it gets harder to watch players come off the board as we get familiar with & somewhat attached to so many players.
Ran a ‘trade down’ mock.
33. Cooper Beebe, OG KSU
58. Ruke Orhorhoro, DL Clemson
62. Jeremiah Trotter Jr, LB Clemson
65. Junior Colson, LB Michigan
78. Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota
91. Spencer Rattler, QB South Carolina
97. Theo Johnson, TE Penn State
131. Chris Jones, OT Texas
151. Erick All, TE Iowa
194. Zion Tupuola-Fetui, EDGE Washington
I want to echo everyone in saying this is a very impressive work by Rob. I want the Seahawks to draft a Quarteback as much as anyone on this board.
I think the Geno Smith trade market is almost nil at this point. Lowering his cap hit for other teams will help to be able to move him, but I cannot see another team offering anything other then a day three pick.
One other option could be to go ahead and draft their QBOTF along with bringing back Lock and Smith. Maybe Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, etc. gets injured in Training Camp or early in the Regular Season. There is no way that a team like the Jets, if Rodgers gets hurt again, is going to want to go through another season without a legitimate Quarterback on their roster. A desperate team may very well trade a 2025 2nd Round Pick for Geno Smith.
Waiting around for a starting quarteback to get injured may not sound sexy, but it is inevitable that some quarterbacks will suffer season ending injuries, and it could maximize the return that they get for Geno.
Daniel Jeremiah doesn’t have T’Vondre Sweat in his top-50
Saw that earlier skimming his list.
Did you see the reports today that Russ is bound for Pittsburgh?
I saw Chad Johnson speculate about it but that’s it
Mike Tomlin loves Virginia guys
How does he feel about West Virginia guys?
I’m afraid Geno is from Florida 😂
Makes Pittsburgh scary. All Russ has do is his late 4th Q magic (while sucking first half 😉 )
Russ does not have it in him anymore, I am afraid.
But us he going to be the 8th highest rated player next week?
Zing. Good one brother. Patrick thinks so too
Wow Rob, that took a few to finish but was well worth it – engaging, concise, packed with everything pertinent.
I just come away from (this article) wishing this was the first or second year after the Wilson trade so we’d have a bunch of pick’s for the new coach/Schneider combo to work with.
Should be interesting anyways to see possible new philosophies come through on players picked. Hopefully they continue with best player available at the forefront.
John Schneider, MM and all coaches need to memorize an answer that they repeat over and over again. “Our plan is to have both QB’s on our roster next year.”
That way they can either be right, or they can say “things changed”. But they need to be on the same page.
Good call on coaches with recent experience from college on staff. Early draft success under Pete can also be attributed to this.
combine cheat code… this should be pinned to the top of the blog.
really appreciate the incredible content through the lens of a seahawks fan… liquid gold.
My take away from this article is that this roster has a ton of needs, and they won’t be able to fix it all in one offseason. Especially given that they will be limited in free agency unless they go the dramatic cha approach of severely overhauling the roster.
Strong need positions, DL (if Williams not signed), LB, Safety (with inevitable cuts), TE, QB, Oline.
Basically it’s easier to say what position groups aren’t needs, which is WR, RB, CB. Those are the only ones I feel comfortable with atm.
6 position groups being a need is tough, especially without your second round pick. Thinking about this, to me it makes it likely that they either trade down, or look to trade a player or players from their current roster to get more picks.
Almost certain to be some fireworks from the Seahawks, either if the stick and pick cause that player will probably be very highly touted, or lots of roster moves to get more bites at the apple in this draft.
Agree. They need to go BPA and be patient, not trying to fill every need this year.
Dude. This is incredible. Thank you.
This article is incredible! Thank you for all you do in the Seahawks community, Rob.
JS is going all in for a QB!
Everything is pointing toward the Seahawks wanting to move away from Geno via trade. Instead of getting a day 3 draft pick for Geno (likely after this years draft ). Instead, they package him with a trade up for one of the top 4 QBs in this draft
Seahawks give up: 2024 First Round (#16) + 2025 First Round + Geno Smith + ? (depending on how high the pick)
Patriots (#3), Titans (#7), Falcons (#8), and Bears (#9) are all viable options if Seattle really likes the 3rd or 4th best QB (Maye/McCarthy). Two of the younger QBs in this draft (they can develop for a year behind Drew Lock)
Why would any of them take on Geno and a lesser pick? Especially when you can have your quarterback?
Man, if they trade up for anyone, let alone Minimal McCarthy….
Why did 9 teams pass on Mahomes…because they felt they had bigger needs than QB. All of these teams have young QBs with new coaches that may want to try to get the most of them (for the Bears new OC who already knows Geno)
Rob, thank you for your hard work! This is a great article!
Here’s the latest on the QB carousel from Mike with Aaron Levine on Q13.
https://twitter.com/MikeDugar/status/1762226276662669475?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Rob, curious what you think of Jared Wiley (TE, TCU).
Good shout Andy. He’s someone I’ve got my eye on for sure.
Rob, thanks for the great content! I posted the link to it in the Seattle Times comments section, but I’m not sure if the moderators will let it through. 🙂
After looking at your talent board, I’m thinking there may well be a run on QBs in the first round. You’ve only listed 21 first round/blue-chip guys. I’m guessing GMs would probably want to take a gamble on a QB at that point, vs. taking other positions too early. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
One of my fav of annual articles of the year!
Some really interesting prospects this year, made freshly interesting with new coaching staff and painful without having the extra draft capital of the past two years.
Thanks for the big work Rob! Made it half way. Can’t wait to read the rest. As a Beaver, getting Fuaga and Oladapo is the dream
Why am I finding this out now? I had tons of tickets to games last year and was struggling to find people to go with.
Hahaha. I was there too!
Phenomenal work.
However, I’d like a word with Daniel Jeremiah. These are the guys in his current Top 50 who, I predict, are on the one-way train to Bustville:
Drake May
Tyler Guyton
Amarius Mims
Bo Nix
JJ McCarthy
Zach Frazier
Kool Aid McKinstry
Malachi Corley
Marshawn Kneeland
Roman Wilson.
Now, I’ve never been right about anything, but I feel like you can take this to the bank. Give me Sweat over any of those guys. Remember, he also failed to include Mahomes in his Top 50.
Finally, as a way to waste time thinking about other things that will never happen – if, say, Carolina was willing to swap their 2025 R1 and a sweetener for your 2024 R1 (16), would you do it? That 2025 pick has some incredibly rich potential to be 1-1. I probably would for QBOTF purposes. If nothing else, you turn that into a metric shit-ton of picks. But, as it’s JS, the Seahawks will trade down and take someone from Michigan, or Directional Michigan.
Malachi Corley – my side eye could not be stronger. I’ve thought about setting up a mini shrine at my house to pray that Corley not be drafted by the 9ers and Rams.
Agree that the Sweat exclusion seems odd, but I’ve read elsewhere that teams are very concerned about his weight, conditioning and motivation.
I don’t make that trade, simply because I think the Hawks have too many needs that need to be addressed asap while the 2022 class is still developing.
Concerning the 10 yard split for the good tight ends, I noticed that Seahawk TEs fall into 2 camps. Luke Wilson, Jimmie Graham, Greg Olsen, Gerald Everett, and Noah Fant all have splits of 1.62 or better. Will Dissly, Nick Vannett, Anthony McCoy, Zach Miller, and
Colby Parkinson have splits of 1.66 or higher.
I think we should consider the difference in times between the 20 and 10 yard split for WRs and DBs. When you consider that the time a quarterback needs to drop back and release the ball, that time is about the same time as the 20 yard split. Some receivers that have a slower 10 yard split can make up the difference in the second 10 yards and are abvle to create separation. For example, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua each have a 10 yard split of 1.63 and 1.62 and their 2nd 10 yard time is 1.01 and 1.02. For reference Tyreek Hill has 10 yard split of 1.50 and a 2nd 10 yard time the same as St. Brown of 1.01. Most of the 2nd 10 yard times are 1.04 or higher. Two that are sub 1 second times are Jamar Chase(0.92), and JSN(0.96).
I did this calculation on CBs and have yet to do it on Safties. There are a few sub 1 second times but not many, Charvarious Ward(0.91), Devon Witherspoon(0.97), Derek Stingley(0.95), Tre Brown(0.97), and Tyson Campbell(0.98). No 1.01 times but players with a 1.02 time are Deom Lenoir, Stephon Gilmore, and Riq Woolen.
Can you please elaborate on Witherspoon taking the Kyle Hamilton role potentially under MM? I was thinking that he might be an interesting solution at safety given his size and play, but I’m not sure that’s what you mean by what you wrote about KH there.
If it’s not, would you mind speaking to the idea of Witherspoon as a safety? Is that a waste of talent?
Check out the link to the Ravens fan I posted within the article
Rob: This information is amazing.
The Seahawks are starting a new era. Because they are starting a new era everything centers around finding that franchise QB. In 2012 they found Russell Wilson in the third round. Once they found him they we off and running. As long as Russell Wilson was on his rookie contract they were an elite team. But Wilson is not in the class of Patrick Mahomes, Joss Allen and Joe Burrow. Those three are in a class all there own. In my opinion their is a great divide between those three and the rest of the league. So can John Schneider can his elite QB. It’s going to be very difficult.
What is amazing about the Chief’s situation is that even though Kansas City has spent franchise money on Patrick Mahomes they are still elite. The Chiefs have done a fantastic job of rebuilding their defense. It’s amazing how they have rebuilt their defense. They are young at defense. But eventually they are going to want to get paid.
Getting back to the Seahawks. Can John Schnieder find his guy. I am confident that they can rebuild the rest of the team. But can he find his franchise QB?
I know everyone is going to complain that I left LaMarr Jackson off the list. He is very good. But he has two problems. When the Ravens are ahead he is elite. But they have not able to come from behind. Jackson in 2-4 in the playoffs. When the Ravens are ahead they roll. But look what happened last year in the AFC Championship game. They could not come from behind. Also one of Jackson’s greatest strength’s are his legs. What happens when they go? Because Jackson’s legs are a weapon in the running he has become injury prone. He will not always be able to run like deer. Eventually because they use him in the running game his body will breakdown. Over the years Jackson’s accuracy has increased. But is he in the class of Mahomes, Allen and Burrows. I will let you decide.
Lamar’s not Mahomes.
But Burrow and Allen aren’t either. Burrow is amazing if he plays. But he doesn’t. Allen? Who knows. He’s tremendous running the ball. If that goes then what. He’s very good passing. Good. Not some tremendous field general. With pinpoint accuracy.
I kind of feel for burrows, Allen, and jackson. There’s a very good chance all three never get a ring.
Peter: Burrows has been injured because of the lack of offensive line protection. The Bengals get what they deserve for NOT PROTECTING Burrows.
When Burrows has protection he is just as good as Mahomes. How good was Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay. Because of poor offensive line play. In that Super Bowl Mahomes was 26 Comp. 49 Att. 270 yards. Zero TDs and 2 INTs.
I thought at the time and still do that Cincy should’ve drafted Sewell instead of Chase in that draft. I know Jamarr is elite but Oline is just too important to pass on a guy as obviously excellent as Penei.
I have heard rumblings about this, wonder which team might give up that ransom…the Commies trading up would flip some draft boards
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2024/2/26/24083889/chicago-bears-rumors-justin-fields-nfl-draft-trade?_gl=1*1wnqgr4*_ga*NTc2Mjc5Njk3LjE3MDg4MDMxMTk.*_ga_2M5GYNY1YS*MTcwOTA0Mjk3NC4zMC4xLjE3MDkwNDUwOTguMzIuMC4w
Have thought for awhile that with Waldron in place they may be looking for a QB with less Williams traits. Has to be tantalizing for Poles to think about grabbing Harrison and Bowers or something to that end.
If Waldon wants a QB with less Williams’ traits, thank God he’s gone. I don’t buy it though, even the Bears aren’t that stupid. After 3 years of Fields, no way they pass on Williams. They already lucked out once by not taking Stroud, and ending up with the #1 overall pick AGAIN. Lucky bastreds.
I legitimately think the bears would have trouble putting butts in seats if they yet again from mahomes, to Stroud, and now Williams overlook a talent that is there to be had so they can run with Fields and pay him a good chunk in the hopes that Shane* turns him into something.
* did he really turn zillion year vet Geno into a probowler or did Geno like a half dozen 30 plus year old qbs before him have a good year and regress to the mean?
I think Geno hadn’t been playing for so long there was little tape on him, which worked great for awhile, but once teams started figuring him out he had no counter punch.
People point to him playing better during the second half of the season, but I didn’t see him playing all that different and we ended up with quite a bit more losses than wins so…
If the Bears have this kind of draft capital and decide to stick with Fields, that would be mind blowing. You just never know when you will have the opportunity to draft 1-2. Oh wait, this is the Bears. I’m sure they will have plenty of opportunities to do so.
Rob-
Wholly *$&#! Been reading you for years and this is the first article that literally overwhelmed me given not only its length, but sheer intensity to detail. I wanted to suck in all the information you were providing, but you also connected dots to what players Schneider prefers and who he might draft. I literally couldn’t handle all the data as my brain needed breaks to digest it all.
Just amazing work. You’re efforts are so appreciated and why you’re literally the only Patreon user I support. It’s reached the point where I swear I’d make you a scout for the Seahawks, if not GM. 😉
-Matt
Brilliant breakdown! quite simply you are a treasure in this otherwise barron sea of Lazy analysis and headlines
Epic read, thanks Rob.
In case anyone thinks the lack of QB commitment the Seahawks are verbalizing is perfectly normal, here’s what we’ve already heard from officials at the combine on their QB situations:
Chicago says if they decide on a QB at #1, ‘it would not be right’ to not trade Fields before Free Agency begins.
Tampa says getting Baker Mayfield back is ‘an extremely high priority’ and ‘we’d love to have him back.’
Denver says they will decide on Russ in two weeks.
Atlanta coach Raheem Morris said ‘if we had better QB play, I wouldn’t be standing here’
When you have two number ones though it can be tricky to remember both their names.
😂
According to the Broncos GM, no other teams have reached out about Russ.
https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/1762514619556389292?s=20
Interesting thing to say publicly.
Eh.
Option A: Trade for him and pay him $25m guaranteed this year and $45m guar next year
Option B: Let the Broncos cut him and sign him for $2m this year and not have to guar $45m next year
Reminds me of when Pete talked the Raiders out of cutting Gabe Jackson, so we could trade a 6th for him, move Lewis to LG and sign Gabe to a 3 year extension, cut him after year two and pay almost $5M in dead cap.
‘No one will trade for Russ, everyone knows we have to cut him… unless’
Ring, ring
Hello, VMAC
Pete Carroll Please
Click
Nope, cut him
Assuming Russ is cut, is the reason he would be cheap this year because anything that is paid by the team that signs him would reduce what the Broncos are paying him up to the guaranteed number? So if someone were to pay Russ $10m, then the Broncos would only be on the hook for $15m, so there isn’t any incentive for Russ to seek more than the veteran minimum for this year?
We don’t know if Russ’ Denver contract has salary offsets.
But the prevailing logic is, Russ is getting paid big $ in 2024 either way, so he can afford to take a min contract to better choose his destination and help his new team. He can also leverage that into a starting job, maybe some 2025 and forward contract triggers/incentives.
Okay, so it’s based on his ego and agent being willing to forego double-dipping on money for 2024, so not necessarily a foregone conclusion.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/russell-wilson-contract-broncos-release-veteran-minimum/6b1df82c797434a864d00f7c#:~:text=His%20deal%20with%20the%20Broncos,from%20what%20it%20owes%20him.
This was what I read regarding the offset language. Doesn’t seem like you could offset signing bonus that was paid and accounted for 2 seasons ago, does it?
Yeah the offset language can only apply to salary, not bonus.
So the max Denver could recover was his $17m salary.
They’ve got it worded strangely.
What I’m seeing is that Denver is on the hook for $39M ($17M guaranteed base + $22M signing bonus proration).
The offset language feels like it’s being mis-reported to me. Articles are saying that Denver will not be liable for anything that another team pays, but I don’t think that’s how it works. The signing bonus has been paid and accounted for, so I don’t think there can be offset language for that part.
The guaranteed salary on the other hand could. If a team signs him for $2M, Denver would only owe $15M. If they signed him for $10M, Denver would owe $7M.
So it’s only really in RW best interest to make over $17M, to add ‘new’ money to what he’ll make in 2024. That said, a $20M one-year deal only gets RW $3M in new money, while saddling his new team with a $20M cap hit and let’s Denver off the hook for $17M in the process.
That would be really greedy and not only hurts his new team, but is a de facto reward for Denver cutting him, just so he can make a bit more – despite having career earnings of over $266M. I think he’d sign for vet min with the team he wants.
Thanks, Brodie. It makes sense that if the $17m base has offset language then RW would be willing to sign for vet minimum.
“According to the Broncos GM, no other teams have reached out about Russ.”
“Option A: Trade for him and pay him $25m guaranteed this year and $45m guar next year
Option B: Let the Broncos cut him and sign him for $2m this year and not have to guar $45m next year”
It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out why no one is willing to trade for Russell Wilson.
This was very well done Rob, comprehensive and a very enjoyable read! Thanks for all that you do 🙂
“is Geno Smith your #Seahawks starting quarterback for 2024?
“Yeah. Yes.
“The starter until he’s not.”
“Said he, #Seahawks decision-makers will assess what they’ve learned from other teams this week in Indianapolis”
Translation: Geno Smith is on the trade market.
I don’t doubt that, I just have a hard time seeing any takers…
It seems like he *really* wants to trade him.
I wonder if it’s… “we’ll take anything for him”
or
“We’ll only trade him for (insert appropriate trade value here).”
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
For those that can watch, Schneider is going to be sitting down at the Combine to talk with the NFL Network crew, supposedly soon after the current commercial break ends.
Can you post any notable questions & quotes here ShowMe?
* compares MikeMac’s interview and hiring to speed dating *
* will talk to Mac about the plan for the offseason once JS returns to Seattle after the Combine *
Pelissero: “You converted Geno’s roster bonus to a signing bonus, which to me would indicate he’s probably going to be on the roster? How do you look at that room right now and which direction you want to go in 2024?”
JS: “It’s a great room. Drew’s a FA. Moving Geno’s roster bonus to a signing bonus… we wanted to do that to create some cap room, and uh….. with Drew, we’d love to have him back. He’s made good progress with us, he had a brand new baby and loves the area. ….And you guys know, I was with Ron Wolf in GB a long, long time and going through 14 drafts and only drafting two QBs is something we’re not real proud of but it’s just the way it’s happened and you can’t reach at certain positions, especially at QB. This is a cool class and we’ll study this one like we do every other one. We won’t be doing the selfie thing, no.”
Schefter: “You guys were right on the cusp last year. How much retooling do you need to do, system wise?”
Schneider: “That’s what we’re doing right now. We do feel behind a little bit. That’s why the staff didn’t come down here, so they can get their football in place and study our guys some more. …I would say, and this isn’t arrogant at all, that our standard is our standard and we underachieved this year and it didn’t feel great. We’re going to try and uphold that standard. Now with the players, it’s kind of like asking for some patience, some grace to learn everybody.”
* when asked about Grubb’s system, mentions that UW’s WRs were great and he understands why Grubb was throwing the ball around everywhere, despite Seattle’s commitment to running the ball *
Once again, JS gives no mention of Geno, beyond why his roster bonus was converted. Talked excitedly about Drew, however.
HMMMMMMMMM. 🤔
Well done. Much better job of quoting than I did. I had the same takeaway from his question about Geno. Totally sidestepped it – even though it was a fairly direct question.
Also, that was Rapoport, not Schefter.
Ah, good catch. Yes, not Schefter. These guys all become one roving NFL reporter, at some point.
On MM: Impressed with the staff HE put together
How do you work with MM to evaluate roster: Constant evaluation, will see soon what kind of alignment roster and staff have.
How does MM fit w/ positivity/culture: blah blah, interactions w/ (drops 5 names of staff)
QB situation: Great room, converting bonus to create cap room, love to have Drew back. Was w/ Ron Wolf – only drafting 2 QB’s in 14 years not something proud of. Cool class, will study.
Re-tooling, how much work is there? feel behind, staff stayed home to study roster. Underachieved last year. Didn’t live up to standard. Need patience.
Grubb offense: UW threw it all over because they had great WR’s (clearly likes them), but were able to run when they wanted to and control TOP.
Sorry, not much of a stenographer 🙂
FTR I didn’t hear anything that sounded like an endorsement of Geno. Mentioned Lock having a new baby, a house in the area and wanting to have him back.
The way the reporter phrased it was: “You guys converted some salary to bonus which to me seems like you plan to have him as your guy this year” (*paraphrasing quote)
JS said – Ya, we did that to create some cap space this year. We like Geno and Drew and are hoping to get Drew back, he’s a FA with a new baby, etc. Glossed right over Geno, but some will probably point to the fact that his first word was “Ya”.
Definitely didn’t take the opportunity to say Geno is our guy.
You got it in before I did, so kudos. Wanted the exact quotes, so I was rewinding and replaying. 🤣
Haha, had I known you were on the case, I would have just waited and commented on your more accurate account.
Sounds like we came to the same conclusion about the Geno ‘answer’.
https://twitter.com/CorbinSmithNFL/status/1762547694336102556?s=19
Corbin has to be getting a cut of Geno’s roster bonus to be this stupid.
It always strike me as odd when reporters stake out positions.
Aren’t you supposed to be the one who has an open mind and report facts? To take what the team leadership says and analyze it and compare it to what they have said in the past and what other NFL leadership groups are saying about their QBs with uncertain situations?
I don’t get it.
It’s like they learned nothing from being professionally embarrassed by Russell Wilson being traded.
Just imagine Buffalo’s GM stepping to the podium and saying “Josh Allen is our QB until he isn’t.”
Or the Rams GM saying that about Stafford
Or the Packers GM saying that about Jordan Love
Or the Jags GM saying that about Trevor Lawrence
This is not that hard to see what JS is doing, unless you’ve blindfolded yourself.
It is odd… but we should adjust our expectations… at least with our local media.
These folks take stands, fight with people on twitter, double and triple down on positions, even when evidence suggests they shouldn’t.
It’s really incredible to see.
I will give Hawkblogger credit, at least. He see’s the writing on the wall, even if he disagrees with what JS is doing, and the way he’s handling it.
💯
Months ago; I literally posed the question if Geno pays reporters and bloggers. None of their antics have proven orherwise, for now.
JS asked by Tom Pelissero about the QB room (paraphrasing here):
“Yeah, we converted his (Geno’s) roster bonus to create cap room. But we’d love to have Drew back, he’s a free agent, made good progress, had a baby recently, and loves the area. I was with the Ron Wolf group in GB… Only drafting 2 QBs in 14 years is not something we’re proud of. We’ll study this class like any other.”
Hmm….
Man, it sounds like Germans talking about WW2…
“Yeah, it was a time that happened…but bratwursts and pretzels! We make good beer!”
lol
I was comparing it to asking my kid about a math test. “Ya, we had that – but let me tell you about this crazy kickball game at recess”
It feels like JS will bring up Lock’s name, no matter what the question is. 😀
“What is your favorite Netflix show?”
“Locke and Key”
I said this before that I think it is shaping up nearly the same the Russ trade. At least, the maneuvering and hush-hush stance.
A trade may not come to fruition, but I just can’t shake the feeling that they have at least one team in constant contact, hashing something out. Maybe John relents and takes a lower pick. Maybe the other team is waiting on the combine results.
It just smells too similar to what we already witnessed a couple years ago.
To me it feels like any trade would happen after the draft.
1. Teams will want to wait to see if they get ‘their guy’
2. If we traded Geno before the draft, we’re instantly one of the most QB needy teams in the NFL and EVERYONE would know that if a QB they want is sitting there before our pick that they would need to trade up and get him.
3. Trading Geno before all but rules out trading down – which means spending our #16 on a QB and/or pinning the season on Lock.
I think John’s best case scenario is that we sign Drew, trade down and get a QB on day 2 and then deal Geno for 2025 draft capital. Alternate scenario is that we go with Geno and Lock because we didn’t land the QB we wanted.
I’m not sure if anyone listens to the Man2Man podcast with Michael Shawn Dugan and Christopher Kidd, but they discussed trading Geno.
Kidd posits that he might return a 4th or 5th rounder. To which Dugar replies that
“Negotiations START with a first rounder and more.” He goes on to elaborate for a few minutes and says if it’s not a top 10ish pick, he needs two firsts in return. And even then it’s not smart for the Seahawks.
It’s all about 10 mins into their latest episode.
MSD has access, but it doesn’t help inform his takes. I remember him saying – ZERO chance Pete would be let go and 20% chance that Hurtt would be back.
That was maybe 2 days before Pete was let go.
Two 1’s for Geno = a bad deal for us?
🤣👍
Man, if we get a top 10 pick or two 1sts for Geno I will completely forgive and forget that godawful Jamal Adams trade.
Is Michael okay? I mean I get putting a high value to settling higher than most would have assumed but I would expect every sane person to laugh hysterically.
If his conversations starts with a first round pick, they will end with a click of the phone and the sound of the other person laughing.
Him and Corbin are going to need therapy of Geno is traded….
Sounds good!!
Multiple firsts. Or a top ten pick.
I expect geno to be in Seattle next year but some of these brain dead takes. A qb no one wanted a year ago, on a worse performance….
The only team that would make that trade is the team he is on already.
Remember when Mason Rudolph went on that great 3 game run and Tony Romo said ‘he’s Geno Smith-like’ in that he’s been knocked around and discounted and returned from the scrap heap and performed well?
MSD took personal offense to that comment on Twitter.
I could not resist. I looked up Mason’s 3 game stats and pointed out that Geno Smith had NEVER had a 3-game stretch that good (true).
MSD’s reply? “Geno looks better on tape.”
All I can think of with him and Corbin is that WWE fan:
“IT’S STILL REAL TO ME DAMMIT!”
Not sure if they work for Geno as PR, but they aren’t good at it.
Speaking of couldn’t resist… I just had a listen to that pod.
“I need it to be top 5 or top 3. If it’s someone like the Raiders at #11, it’s got to include next years’ #1 too.”
“What they should go with Tyler is extend him with some void years, because they want to win the SuperBowl in 2024.”
JHC. He even went on to say the reason that Tyler’s contract looks so bloated is that they did a restructure last year… so they should do that again.
It’s just a stream of consciousness, like he’s done zero prep for the show.
“If it’s the Bucs… that doesn’t make much sense, but let’s say they like Geno more than Baker” or “who else is in the top 10? Let’s take a look. Maybe Atlanta. If they call, then I’m gonna say I need your #8 and more.”
Then the co-host, who started out saying a 4th or 5th is now convinced that’s the proper valuation, plus who knows how many listeners who will take to X to let everyone know.
https://twitter.com/hawkblogger/status/1762541859162001588?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Speaking of X, weird timeliness, and accidentally saying tge quiet part out loud that our qb…..might not be that great if the league doesn’t rate him.
+1,000!
Shaq Barrett (TB) and Jonnu Smith (ATL) were both cut today.
Could names like these guys be the expected bargain/street FAs to fill the roster out?
Barrett is pretty done. Smith has underachieved, but depending on price, I’d kick the tires.
Here’s a great bias test. JS said darn near the exact same thing about Jamal Adams as he did Geno Smith.
Who interprets these comments as they’re done with Jamal and yet there is no way they’re going to trade Geno?
Gotta keep em both. That’s what that means. Best in the Nation!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yDDBw_GtOXw
Then again, maybe Geno looks better on tape.
JS was on with Florio and Simms. I time-stamped to the Geno question
https://youtu.be/a_8U_G7MNDw?si=o2mfdQp4eL1KS1zH&t=390
TLDW: Sounds just like the rest of his answers. Is Geno QB1? “We hope it’s a competition.”
“He’s been our QB for the last two years”
rrrriiiiiggghhhhtttt….
Same on CBS
I love the interviewer asked him about the emotion of Geno Smith’s story and does that play into his decision-making. JS sidestepped it and talked about how he’s only taken 2 QBs in 14 years and that wasn’t intentional.
https://youtu.be/yLd_XH5XpZE?si=Fhhe0Hl4opIH9W3g&t=285
So interesting that it’s: “We have a lot of love for Drew and a lot of love for Geno” and not the other way around.
I’m thinking JS should have avoided all of these interviews. This can’t be helping steer things. Even the most tone-deaf fan has got to be taking notice at this point.
Watch the interviewer when it pans back to her after ‘lotta love for Drew…and lotta love for Geno’ She’s cracking a wide, knowing smile. She just witnessed a professional question-dodger at work.
Well, Seattle now seems pretty desperate to drum up a trade market for Geno.
Not sure desperation gets you anywhere.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxYgs0t3aEBA6Kt9fjWtMukcKHQLHaQ5Id?si=k4-auZN1RmyJo60H
Another non committal answer on Geno
What’s odd to me is if they really wanted to trade him wouldn’t they want to act like he’s a valuable piece? You can still say “We love him and he’s our starter, but of course it’s my job to answer the phone and consider trades.”
It only behooves them to underplay their commitment/interest if they are trying to renegotiate and get him to a lower number.
New video on John Schneider’s combine comments on Geno Smith…
https://youtu.be/37SRHzwFyvc?si=HE1-3e9QYuTyYrbL
John Boyle just posted a “What did we learn from John Schneider today?” wrap-up on the official website.
Not a single word on Geno Smith.
Not one.
Why is that odd? Geno is a Lock to be our starting franchise QB for the next ten years at least
I finished listening to some of John Schneider’s interview’s today and Rob’s Reaction Video.
Is JS being non-committal on Geno Smith being the Staring Quarteback in order to entice Drew Lock to re-sign with the Seahawks? Is Lock the guy they really want but they are also contractually tied to Smith?
I am a little dumbfounded by him regretting only ever drafting 2 Quarterbacks. I think Schneider is telling us he really just wants Lock and a Rookie Quarterback on the roster in 2024.
That makes a lot of sense. Sign Drew for backup money, then trade Geno.
I get the sense John is a little irked, either at the decision or the circumstances around Lock’s covid, that he didn’t get a serious crack of the whip to start in 2022
I think a big part of that Wilson trade, for John at least, was getting Lock. And he hasn’t had a chance to see if he could even be the answer because — in John’s mind — an ageing, short-term QB has got that chance instead
Just a guess, based on a hunch. I’ve heard it suggested John has a blindspot for Lock and that might be a good way of putting it. But I think JS is a little bit miffed that Lock hasn’t had a bigger shot at this — and I think that and his keenness/respect for Lock is driving all of this talk about him
Tony Pauline had a pretty hot report discussing that.
Have you got a link?
I can’t find it now.
Rats. Somebody posted it here in the last couple weeks.
It was basically the front office was leaning Drew Lock, Pete was leaning Geno. Front office was frustrated about Geno getting all the opps.
Anyone?
The way that everyone in the organization is talking about Lock make me think that you might be correct.
Geno was Pete’s guy and Lock was Schneider’s may be accurate regardless of John saying otherwise.
History is repeating itself with beat writers’ willingness to ignore storylines. Michael Bumpus, Dave Wyman, and John Boyle are employed by the team so that is to be expected.
https://twitter.com/CorbinSmithNFL/status/1762607984482361675?s=19
So, has NASA got the signal from Vega yet declaring the Underwear Olympics open?
JS’s comments today make me feel even more like they want Lock and a Rookie QB with Geno traded. Agree that Geno on his own will not get enough to justify the dead cap (extra R4??). However, doing a draft day trade to move up and get the QB they want that includes Geno is very viable.
One example: If Drake Maye is still there at #6, have a deal ready to go with the Giants for 2024 R1 (#16) + 2025 R1 or R2 + Geno
– Giants would get competition for Daniel Jones by getting Geno. Plus likely a starting right tackle with #16 (to fix their terrible line), and they would have the bonus of a 2025 pick. They would not want to select Maye directly because he is RAW and would likely take a couple years to fully develop…their coaching staff would be fired before they saw the benefits given their current status
– Seahawks gets a QB in Maye that needs time to developer but has all the tools to be a great starter in the league…Drew Lock will be the bridge until he is ready. I know Maye is not a blog favorite, but he has a lot to work with, and I can see JS wanting him
Just saying, but there’s no way the Giants are letting the Seahawks come up for Drake Maye, just so they can get picks and Geno Smith. The Giants fans would tear down MetLife Stadium
This is a huge deal. We NEED Abe healthy
Really shapes the draft in my opinion if the prognosis is good.
Heard that Sean Peyton might be interested in J. J. McCarthy.
Multiple teams are going to be interested in McCarthy. Love him or hate him, he’s intriguing to teams.
I can see the Broncos, Raiders, Vikings having a bidding war for McCarthy.
I’ve heard Nix and I think there’s a good chance he’d dutifully follow all orders from Payton which is apparently what the guy wants in a QB. Nix may have already done that at Oregon considering he didn’t throw deep much and what QB wouldn’t love to take some deep shots?
The thought that Geno was Pete’s guy and Drew is John’s makes a lot of sense. I remember at the time during the draft leadup in 2012 Pete was a Kirk guy when Russell was John’s. So it makes a lot of sense they’d have different philosophies regarding QBs. I mean look at how both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes swing it. Both are more of a gunslinger than the point guard that Pete prefers. And what is Drew compared to Geno?
It took me two days to get through it properly because work kept knocking on my skull, but it is glorious!
I watched TEF and WTEF being birthed in real time, and reading about it all again never gets old to me. It’s one of the more remarkable examples of sports journo sleuthing and applied logic I’ve ever come across.
There are a great number of very interesting prospects in this class, many of whom will be available in the range where Seattle currently don’t have a pick. I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to think Schneider will want to correct that prior to the draft so that he’s not reliant on a trade down to recoup the missing R2, which will no doubt be Plan B if he can’t fix things first.
I think the cap massaging they did with Geno’s contract, the main thing it really does is make it easy for an acquiring team to see value for the pick they trade in a low cost Geno Smith for one year and the opportunity to extend him if he works out. The question is does it move the needle enough for a team to give up a R2 pick? Or a R3, seeing that they already have two R3s and a third would make moving up into R2 an alternative to trading down from 16, which they might still do.
I wonder if there’s another player they might move with Smith to get that extra value if necessary? Someone like Stone Forsythe or Raiqwon O’Neal. Maybe Dee Eskridge too.
Anyway, I think John will leave no stone unturned on his way to the draft to get a R2 pick before it all starts.
Work kept knocking on your skull?
Helmet tester? How’s the pay? I’m in!
“…I think JS is a little bit miffed that Lock hasn’t had a bigger shot at this — and I think that and his keenness/respect for Lock is driving all of this talk about him…”
While the assumptions made with respect to Drew Lock are valid, Occam’s razor would suggest there is a simpler set of assumptions to explain why JS, a 30-year professional talent evaluator and reportedly well thought-of amongst his peers, would be fawning over Drew Lock.
Most likely he is keenly aware of the value in retaining a solid back-up QB (see Jets, Vikings, NE, Raiders, Falcons, Broncos, etc). He recognizes also that Lock would be an ideal bridge QB in the event he is able to secure a QBotF. I doubt he would stake his future gambling that Lock could be anything more than this.
As we saw during the search for a new HC, Schneider is a good poker player; he’s methodical, keeps his cards close, and only reveals what he wants the other players to see. Clearly, he wants to trade Geno, but I suspect this is only the tip of the iceberg.
Everything that has happened to date presages a big move upcoming. It’s anyone’s guess how that will manifest, but my guess is JS will defy convention and do a major trade-up in the draft to select a QB, and the target is…(drum-roll)… JJ McCarthy.
I know a lot of people will scoff at the idea, but he’s very under-rated. He’s better than Maye; he’s the most technically sound of all the top QBs (IMO)…watch his footwork and throwing motion. He goes through his progressions and takes what the defense gives him. Good size, athletic…Most importantly, he wins.
Given the Michigan/Ravens connection of Macdonald, Jay Harbaugh, and Chris Partridge OLB coach, plus players Mike Morris and Olu Oluwatimi, the Seahawks seem to like what Michigam offers. Maybe we should pay more attention to what new Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh says in talking up JJ McCarthy. I don’t think he is going to be the #1QB drafted, but he might end up being the #1 QB of this draft class when the dust settles.
We need to get ahead of Denver so I could see JS trading up with the Jets with players and picks (Geno, Woolen?). Chicago might also be a logical trade partner and maybe even the Chargers, although the cost would seem to be prohibitive.
I just cannot imagine John trading up for a 195lbs quarterback with a non-rocket arm whose tape is as underwhelming as McCarthy
John has shown he has a type at QB and McCarthy ticks hardly any boxes for that type
I hear you. It’s okay that we disagree. Unio understands his is not a popular opinion but he is not dismayed or deterred.
Did you know Tom Brady at 76.4 inches only weighed 211-lbs for the Combine? This is from Brady’s scouting report: “Poor build … Skinny … Lacks great physical stature and strength … Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush … Lacks a really strong arm … Can’t drive the ball downfield … Does not throw a really tight spiral … System-type player who can get exposed if forced to ad lib … Gets knocked down easily.”
I am not saying JJ is another Tom Brady, no one is, however JJ has plus-height at 6′-3″ and will weigh-in not at 195 but around 210-lbs. Also, he is very young and still growing. He will add more muscle weight on his ample frame. He is athletic. He will surprise many with the vigor of his arm during the throwing exhibition. By the time of the 2024 NFL draft, many will have upgraded his prospects. Possibly you, as well.
Unio thanks you for your quality in reporting and analysis. Seahawks should hire you, but then, we would be without.
Do you ironically refer yourself in the third person? Why not just say “I” when referring to your own opinion?
Just my personal opinion but it’s hard to take anyone who refers to themselves in the third person seriously, doing this undercuts any point you could have that is interesting.
I will try to do better. Sometimes I lapse into old ways. All cultures are not the same in expression of ideas or in expression of oneself to others. My apologies.
I should have mentioned if English isn’t first language or whatever that’s totally understandable just wanted to point out cause it can undercut otherwise interesting points when I’m sure that’s not your intention.
Prediction:
Mccarthy will not be 6’3″ 200 lbs. No college lists the real size.
Best footwork? An easy case can be made for Nix with the best footwork. Denver is taking him because he’s drew brees ( maybe) with athleticism.
Tom Brady? Do people understand how monumentally out of the norm his legend is?
With respect to mccarthy….against real opponents Jim said “no thanks son, you aren’t throwing today.” He’s a backups backup when forced to play against teams with one or more ranked defenders. 143 yards and less than 1 td per game against defenses that put up a fight. Amazing 3rd down stats. Amazing against Alabama. Against the other four ranked teams he did almost nothing.
My best guess for mccarthy: darnold, or similar. Or- out of all the guys playing pro football… he sure is one of them.
Rob, I respect how much you put into this and the tons of tape you watch, but Unio is right: McCarthy is extremely underrated. The one thing he has that’s extraordinary is instant processing. When he’s under duress he almost always makes the canny play. He’s unflappable in high pressure situations. Look at his numbers on 3rd and 4th down. Remarkable.
He is still young and his body will still develop, but it’s his decision making under pressure that augers success at the next level. I do agree that his arm strength is merely decent right now, especially his deep balls. His intermediate passes have good velocity though. I think his arm strength will improve as his frame fills out.
I hope you take another look at him.
Everyone is saying McCarthy is going in the top-12
How is that underrated?
Trust me, this is very much overrated territory. His tape is not impressive. ‘He’s young and will develop’. Why will he? Maybe he’s just going to be 195lbs or 200lbs? He needed to add weight a year ago and didn’t
And I’ve watched double digit games. He is not a particularly impressive watch. I thought he was a better version of Desmond Ridder — another player people told me was underrated
Here’s the deal: when was he under duress? He was never used. Why is this guy the one guy that Harbaugh handcuffed? Out of all the players that he’s had? Because he either isn’t that good or the team didn’t trust him. Or both. And it’s not because it was a run-heavy offense. It’s the same offense he’s always ran. Yet every other qb, college to pro, was a focal point. There were games where they actively didn’t use McCarthy. Yet he’s the hidden gem of the draft….
All he has is plus athleticism. That’s it. Not processing, not the arm. He can scramble. No matter what, his arm isn’t good enough for Schneider. And he isn’t getting that much better with his arm. It’s a moot point. He’s the one guy that we can rule out.
Lot of truth here
So we’re now comparing him to Brady?
Come on, let’s go through the many undersized QB’s who weren’t Brady
WOW ROB!!! This looks like a team (3) of writers did this over a 2 week period. We are so blessed to have you. Other teams fan are coming to read your work because it is just so good.
My prediction for Rob-you are going to be offered this job soon. Your job will be to cover and write about the entire-NFC West!
The pay and benefits will be excellent!
Question-
Ever since Rob re-introduced us to Spencer Rattler, the more I have wanted him on the Seahawks.
In my humble opinion, Rattler wont make it out of the 2nd round.
If the Seahawks have traded all the way down to pick 27 for example, do you there is a chance to Seahawks could draft him? By being a 1st rounder the Hawks will get him a for a 5th year and that is going to save them alot of money.
If they don’t take him and he goes on to be a STAR in this league, it’s going to be a gut punch that never goes away. Kind of like Anthony Richards.
If a QB works out, the 5th year option won’t mean much. You’ll still have to pay him top dollar. You don’t low all a Franchise QB on his second contract, unless you’re an asshat with more hubris than brains.
I love Rattler.
He’s the only qb who plays in a way that you can see on Sunday.
But I doubt he goes first round.
I think Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels do what Rattler does and they do it way way better. I like Rattler but I think Jayden Daniels is the most dangerous QB in this draft class.
I think Rattler is second behind Williams. Daniels is more dangerous but raw. He can be Lamar and get by for a few years off of his athleticism. Rattler has a base skill set and ability to run an offense that no one else in this class has.
A weird thought occurred to me after Rob wrote about the combine being so poorly scheduled again this year, and cited the bench press last year.
This is a leap year with a leap day. Why not do the vertical and the broad jump that day for everyone? It seems like a lost marketing opportunity.
JD Bertrand May test fairly well at LB in regards to speed. Short arms though. He might surprise as a day 3 pick given both his speed, instincts and ability to read/understand a defense.
On the other hand Marist Liufau is a contrast, great athlete with length . Plays with abandon but not disciplined through most of his career, although a lot better this year.
I keep thinking Seattle will be looking for multifaceted tools.
WR that can double as RB, RB that can be a TE, or a TE that can be a WR. Positional flexibility is what is needed for the offense to really open up and become what many thought they would be in 2023 under the old HC and OC. The below listed guys are all circled on my Seahawks draft day “bingo card”.
Examples
WR Luke McCaffrey (mid round pick) – new to WR position, but shows flashes rushing
RB Will Shipley (mid round pick) – can rush, but has very good hands for a RB in space
TE Cade Stover (mid round pick) – can catch, but willing to rush and block / Deebo comes to mind when I think about his fit in an offense.
I just finished watching Schneider’s press conference at the combine. About 6:30 minutes into it, he was asked about how he evaluates QB prospects. He mentioned the obvious things like interceptions and fumbles, but also listed the following things as important:
1. How do they handle themselves in the pocket? Do they have confidence?
2. How do they interact with their teammates? With their coaches?
3. How do they deal with adversities in a game (like throwing a pick)? Are they calm and poised through-out a game?
4. Field vision.
He also mentioned that Geno is a confident guy and how Geno’s confidence was boosted further by Pete and Dave Canales. He thinks that Dave can do the same thing with Bryce Young.
One player I have my eye on as a late rounder/UDFA is LB Daniel Green from Kansas State.
He looks a little slow at times, but I like his eyes when diagnosing the mesh and screens, I like his energy and although he missed a few tackles he has an equal amount where he finished tackles with a good pop.
If he tests better than expected I’d be excited to see how he does.
Also, what’s your take on Jared Wiley from TCU?
Not a player I’ve had a chance to study yet, sorry
Jer’Zhan Newton and Junior Colson confirmed combine meetings so far.
Great job Rob, I took in a couple of positions a day and have just finished the preview before testing starts tomorrow. Thanks for all the content. Enjoy the event.