Breshad Perriman is getting a good press this week — but can you trust his hands?
The current flavor of the month prospect is UCF’s Breshad Perriman. Mel Kiper had him going 15th overall to the 49ers in his latest mock draft, stating:
One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman is a player I’ve grown to really like as I’ve spent more time going through his tape. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class. He’s got size, and strength, and is going to run really fast at the combine and be a guy who can both stretch defenses vertically and also make plays over the middle and in traffic. He’s also got great bloodlines, as I scouted his father (Brett) when he played for Miami.
Today Gil Brandt tweeted his interest in Perriman, suggesting he could be a first round pick. Greg Cosell went a step further, comparing his “size and movement” to Julio Jones.
Here’s the issue with Perriman — and it’s a big one. Drops. At the end of the day, you can have all the size and speed in the world. If you’re not a reliable hands catcher, how high are you going to go in the draft? I mean, you better have some pretty serious athletic qualities to make up for the number of drops Perriman had in college. According to Steve Palazzolo he had seven drops from 54 catchable passes in 2014 — a drop percentage of nearly 13%. That’s just too high. Palazzolo clarified they don’t count drops on bad throws — these are basic passes that should’ve been hauled in.
As Lance Zierlein puts it, “His drops will drive teams crazy.”
A year ago another big, athletic receiver was getting similar attention. Cody Latimer didn’t work out at the combine due to injury — but at his pro-day he recorded a 39-inch vertical jump, a sub-4.4 forty, he benched 23 reps and looked the part at 6-3 and 215lbs. Physically he was quite the talent. Then you throw on the tape and he had excellent, secure hands — he could high point the football and he showed dedication as a blocker and special teams contributor.
Getting behind Latimer was easy and although he eventually settled into a second round slot (drafted by Denver) — the growing hype was understandable. Perriman might have similar physical tools but he’s nothing like the reliable pass-catcher Latimer proved to be in college. For that reason it’s hard to invest too much stock in a high first round grade.
The receiver position is more important than ever with teams throwing a ton and building around the passing game. For that reason I can see Perriman going earlier than Latimer — who had the misfortune of declaring in a freakishly loaded year at the position. If there’s an early rush (Cooper, White, Parker) — teams might start reaching. Let’s say all three are gone before Kansas City is on the clock at #18. Can they afford to wait until round two, praying a receiver is there that they like? Possibly not. A small reach in the first round can be forgiven. I’m not sure missing out altogether will be in KC. What about San Francisco at #15? You have Cleveland at #19 (receiver is a BIG need for the Browns), Carolina at #25 (still need more), Seattle at #31 and New England at #32. So you can imagine a situation where someone like Perriman gets vaulted up the board.
The two videos below are both positive examples of his game. There are two drops combined, but also some pretty eye-catching grabs where he shows good catching technique. The quarterback situation post-Blake Bortles wasn’t great at UCF and you see a real lack of accuracy at times — throws behind or just off target. That’s no excuse for the big missed opportunity against ECU (1:43 in the second video), where he just straight drops a perfect throw and takes a touchdown off the board.
Ultimately I think Perriman will be a second or third round pick. It won’t be a shock if he goes earlier, but it’s hard to bang the table for him in Seattle unless you convince yourself he can get over the drops and make big improvements in that area.
Meanwhile…
Mike Mayock revealed his first set of positional rankings this week. His top five at receiver reads: White, Cooper, Parker, Green-Beckham and Funchess.
That drop percentage is scary considering he might only get 4-5 a game if he was on the hawks. Definitely pass. Off topic, but what are your guys thoughts on trying to pick up Orakpo on a 1 year deal? He was injured last year and might want to re-establish value.
Orakpo is always injured.
Very talented, very dynamic pass rusher, but with the physicality and intensity that Seattle practices and plays with, could Orakpo hold up health wise?
He was playing on that awful turf in DC. Any deal for him would have to be a prove it deal. I wouldn’t want him coming in here and playing 50 snaps a game.
My first thought is, where does he fit?
Thinking end? At 255-265, that’s a slight end. He played linebacker for the Redskins. So is he taking Irvin or Wright’s spot?
He was drafted, and played in a 3-4 scheme. So he was tasked with rushing the passer as a LB. He wouldn’t be doing that here in Seattle. Right now, I would see him as a straight up downgrade from Irvin already at SAM.
He’s had 2 season ending injuries in the last three seasons. I’m not seeing a lot of value in pursuing him, even at a minimum contract. He doesn’t add anything really that our team isn’t already better at right now.
Would need to be a low deal for me. Injury issues a big concern, most of his production pre-2012. Needs to want to come and play for a great team on a small deal with a point to prove, hitting free agency in 2016 with momentum.
Rob, I know your a fan of Cleveland DE-LEO or soon to be FA Jabaal Sheard, but what do you think about DE-LEO Jerry Hughes?
He said there’s now way he’s coming back to Buffalo to play a 3-4 OLB position, because he wants to play with his hand in the dirt.
I thought I’d seen him say he wanted to stay in Buffalo? Personally not sold on Hughes. Will be expensive and his bad time with Indy sticks in my mind.
He’s a very intriguing guy with the size and athleticism he possess. But, I agree with you, and just think the drops are concerning. Especially with teams currently placing an emphasis on drop (passes) rate %.
I’m one of these guys who every month I have a new favorite WR, and it’s because I’m open-minded and try to identify what excites me or stands out about these guys. I tend to not resign myself to just 1 player at a certain position, because IMO your setting yourself up for disappointment if that certain player isn’t picked. So, it’s nice to consider WR Breshad Perriman as an option.
However, the bigger targets at the top of this year’s draft class, just don’t seem very ‘Seahawky.’ At least to me. As it currently stands, USC WR Nelson Agholor and Miami WR Phillip Dorsett are my favorite’s. Followed by K-St WR Tyler Lockett, Baylor WR Antwan Goodley, E. Carolina’s WR Justin Hardy, and possibly Arizona St WR Jaelen Strong, depending on his combine and broad/vertical jumps, and I’d now have to add UCF WR Breshad Perriman right behind Strong.
Of course I also like WRs Kevin White, DeVante Parker, and Amar Cooper, but in no way whatsoever am I expecting any of those 3 to end up in Seattle.
Should say right beside Strong, not behind.
Great comment V12.
I totally agree with you that all of the “bigger” guys seem to be the exact opposite of the type of player Seattle would want. If Seattle passed up on the opportunity on Kelvin Benjamin (which is what I assume has something to do with drops/lack of focus) then why would they be interested in Perriman who is even more inconsistent and not nearly as dominant (albeit that’s hard with a poor QB).
I’ll say this and I’m sure everybody else would agree. Seattle wants a big receiving threat. Then again, what team wouldn’t? Especially when they have nothing but undrafted and small over performers. However, this does not mean they will try to reach for a guy just to try and fit that role. I think we’ll still see a “BPA/Our type of Guy” drafting strategy that they never stray from. This is why I agree with you that Dorsett will be a guy they are interested in (and Devin Smith). I think they’d like Agholor, but not as a 1st round or maybe even a 2nd round option though considering the fact that his main impact at first would just be on special teams.
Thanks Chopper.
I completely forgot about Ohio St WR Devin Smith. I’d of course have to add him to my list as well.
Agree that Seattle won’t or shouldn’t ‘reach’ for that big receiver just for the sake of having one. Great point about passing on WR Kelvin Benjamin. I mean they didn’t pass over him per se, but he was only 4-5 spots ahead of them and probably would have taken very little capital to move up and get.
I disagree with you however on USC WR Nelson Agholor. IMO he’s one of the most ready NFL receivers. He’s got a great understanding of the route tree and route concepts. He’s extremely focused, intense, and has a determination/drive to be great. And at only 20 or 21 years of age, that is highly exciting in my mind. Plus, as you said, his return skills may be some of the best in this draft.
I’ve got to say, I want Gurley with the first pick, the DGB if available. If not Id go Dorsett in the second. and Goodley in the third unless he could drop to the 4th. If we got dorsett and goodley we would have some serious speed and would cause some serious headaches for dc’s. Needless to say DGB is only if he checks out. Id love to have that rare size speed catching ability combo. We would be rolling on offense if some sort of combo came out of that.
I dunno. There’s one taller WR I like in the mid rounds – Dezmin Lewis. He reminds me a lot of a youthful Sidney Rice.
Deontay Greenberry is another Sidney Rice clone.
Jaelen Strong’s combine set will be very interesting.
I would like to see how he does against better competition. He looks like he has huge hands too and that makes the drops harder to understand.
I’m glad his star is rising! Why? Because I think we know better than to take an inconsistent guy. He would be eaten alive by the LOB at practice, and break. But it will help ensure we have a better chance at getting the guy we want!~!
Can’t wait for the draft… Which WR will we choose??? P.Rich wasn’t on the radar last year. This year? Who knows…
DGB, Phillip Dorsett, Tyler Lockette, Nelson Agholor, Ty Montgomery…who will it be?
Drops can be kind of flukey. With the small number of opportunities, just one or two can balloon one’s drop rates significantly.
I prefer to look at how he goes about catching the ball in the first place. There are a few things that jump out at me watching him.
1. This dude gets open. Watching him, even on the throws that don’t go his way. He gets open like clockwork. Probably second only to Phillip Dorsett that I’ve seen thus far in this class. I’d put DGB third in this regard. Don’t discount this ability, because it really shows up a lot.
2. He shows the ability to control his body and get poor passes. Shows ability to catch balls low and behind on crossing routes, and hard passes led too far. These are tough catches. He demonstrates an above average ability to catch the ball with his hands.
3. Hands are probably average. Even on some of his catches, they can rattle around a bit before settling in. Not always though. He is aggressive in attacking the ball. I see a receiver who has better hands than Jermaine Kearse.
4. Doesn’t always work back to the underthrown ball. This is a pet peeve of mine. He is inconsistent in this regard. When he does slow up and high point the contested ball, he does so with authority and wins. Can see the ability to catch and rip the ball clean despite a defender having a hand on the ball at the same time.
Ultimately, I’m not as down on the drops as some. He doesn’t look awkward when catching the ball. It doesn’t eat him up. Even balls directed at him (Curl routes), he snatches cleanly with his hands.
I really do like his ability to get open though. And his ability to trust his hands, and throw them out there to get the ball. He shows good ability to catch on the move, without slowing or allowing defenders to close gaps. Displays a very good catch radius that is functional (i.e. he doesn’t just have long arms — but shows the ability to catch bad balls well away from his body).
He looks like a guy who flashes real potential. It seems to me that he’s coached well who is trying to find confidence in his hands. It appears that the passes he does have trouble with, he almost has too much time to second guess how to position his hands and he turns them wrong. When he has to stab at the ball because it’s errant — his hands look extremely natural and sure.
I agree with your points! It looks like he has the body control and acceleration that a bigger WR needs to be elite.
He’s definelty an exciting guy to consider. But, if he doesn’t know how to position his hands and stabs at the ball at this point, that’s troublesome. Your hands should be in the diamond formation when catching the ball.
I’m referring to stabbing at errant balls offline from his body.
On curls/slants that are thrown properly to his numbers, he positions his hands nicely.
On some throws, particularly deep ones, he shows a couple instances where he gets caught between turning and catching like that, or letting the ball drop to his hands over the shoulder. And then looking like he’s all thumbs.
Overall, I don’t think his hands are as bad as advertised. And I can see the potential for improvement in that aspect based on how well he can catch poor throws when he has to make radical reactionary adjustments to the ball.
He shows quick hands. Able to snatch the ball suddenly from the air at the last second away from his body. In that regard, he’s actually pretty good at it. And it translates into better opportunities to catch the ball at the next level when coverage is tighter.
His route running is a bit inconsistent. Like just about every WR in college. But he does flash real quality/crisp route cuts.
This is great analysis and I agree 100%. So many of those throws I thought to myself, “Russ would put that ball on him.”
Perriman flashes advanced route running concepts. He’s big enough to beat press coverage but there’s a subtlety to the way he sets up db’s that I rarely see at that level.
How do players with big drop percentages in college translate to the NFL? I don’t know where to find that information, but it would be interesting to see if these guys drop less passes.
Fair question. Anyone?
Finding college stats seems to be the problem. There are a couple of articles that cite the college drop percentages of the top receivers in last year’s draft but I can’t access source the source website. The writer asserts that good hands in college doesn’t mean good hands in the NFL, and that bad hands in college almost always means bad hands in the NFL, in terms of drop percentages at least. I don’t know if this is verifiable.
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2014/04/2014-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-drop-percentage-rates-greg-peshek/
Using those figures and comparing them to drop rates in the NFL:
Rookie Drop rate – name – College drop rate
7.4% – Lee – 12.31%
6.9% – Benjamin – 9.68%
6.1% – Bryant – 12.5%
5.8% – Matthews – 7.69%
4.1% – Moncrief – 11.1%
3.3% – Evans – 4.29%
3.1% – Watkins – 4.49%
1.8% – Landry – 2.5%
1.5% – Beckham – 6.45%
1.5% – Cooks – 4.69%
1.2% – Robinson – 5.43%
0% – Richardson – 8.89%
I think the pattern is stupidly clear. Better QBs in the NFL lead to much better drop rates. In every single case (other than guys that didn’t catch passes at all), these rookies had much better drop rates in their rookie year.
I would call that myth thoroughly debunked. Drop rates should shrink by 30-50% upon reaching the pros.
Great stuff.
Looking at that, the two guys I was least interested in last year due to iffy hands – Moncrief and Bryant – took a giant leap, and I’d love to have either of them at this point. Interesting given the conversation in this post; the QB looks completely marginal in that film, which might also have an impact.
Isn’t there a sample size issue though? Not sure at what point drop rate stabilizes, but is one season enough data to draw meaningful conclusions?
It would be worth it to look at how drop rates vary from year to year. Not sure where to find info on NFL drop rates though.
If someone has a PFT subscription, they could run the numbers.
Yes there is J. That’s why I prefaced the discussion above that drops are flukey. The sample size of targets is almost always less than 100. So a drop here and there can really make a player appear much worse. One drop can increase the rate by 4-6%.
For what it’s worth, I have never considered drop rates to be of any consequence whatsoever. They are certainly frustrating, but in reality there is always that element there. Kind of like missing a long field goal. Just about every player does it, and the numbers are always generally oversold to make players look like something they aren’t.
Additionally, drop rates are by nature subjective. Honestly, when I see dropped passes, personally I see it as the fault of the QB most of the time. Placing the ball poorly, or throwing harder than necessary. Basically not doing what they should to increase the likelihood of the catch.
And what’s interesting, is that these drop rates really bear that truth out. That better QB play really has a substantial impact on drop rates. While one player’s drop rates can vary wildly, the reality that you can look at a dozen players and every last one of their drop rates just plummet from college to their first year in the pros kind of bears that out.
Drops are really more a function of bad passes. And probably not a shortage of ‘If it hits your hands you catch it’ mentality. Maybe that was true 40 years ago when QB accuracy was poor. But that sentiment really strikes me as something that should be said with a John Facenda voice over. It’s an archaic belief.
Great job Attyla. I was just thinking of Martavis Bryant as I read the criticism of Perriman’s hands. Last year, every scouting report said Bryant had great speed, hops, but his hands were iffy. How many of us wish the Seahawks drafted him instead of P.Rich or Kevin Norwood. Let’s be honest, even when healthy, P.Rich was never the speedster he was advertised to be. But Bryant? He can fly. And his drop percentage was cut in half after he came to the pros. Seahawks made a big mistake by not drafting Bryant, unless they know of some character flaws we don’t.
I think the Seahawks would be making another big mistake if they passed on Perriman. 6’3 WRs that can take the top off, make circus catches, and have big bodies to go over the middle and box out corners just don’t come around very often. In my view, Perriman and Phillip Dorsett (love him) are the gems in the WR class that the Seahawks actually have a chance at getting. I’d like to see them get both (wishful thinking, I know).
Personally I felt more comfortable with Bryant’s drops, they weren’t quite as ugly as Perriman’s (or Benjamin’s).
That’s an interesting statistic and confirms a suspicion I had. I do think there is something to the quality of pass when assessing drop rate. Drops, like a lot of things in football, shouldn’t necessarily be seen as a black and white issue. Pro quarterbacks, with their superior ball placement, should in theory present fewer opportunities for drops.
Also, being able to focus on football 24/7 can’t hurt.
where are the seattle receivers on this list
Ask and you shall receive:
10% Luke Willson 22r/4d
7.7% Tony Moeaki 8r/1d
6.7% Ricardo Lockette 11r/1d
4.2% Cooper Helfet 12r/1d
4.2% Marshawn Lynch 37r/2d
3.1% Doug Baldwin 66r/3d
2.9% Jermaine Kearse 38r/2d
0.0% Richardson/Norwood/Turbin/Coleman/Walters/Miller
Courtesy of http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2014/
Note, it still warms the heart that Vance McDonald (hey hey Harbs!) sports a career 10 receptions for 149 yards. Willson almost has half as many TDs (4) as McDonald has catches.
Man… if Luke Willson had safe hands…
Notice how the 2 guys with a drop rate of over 10% went lower than the 2nd round? It may not mater to fans, but it’s defiantly something NFL teams are now placing a premium on.
Just by looking at these numbers, it seems to me that the bigger wideouts drop more passes.
That is a great question. Is a 13% drop rate from someone with no NFL training that bad? Seems like Kearse and Lockette are much worse as pros.
I’d be interested in those stats for sure. Kearse has definitely improved his catching from his time at UDUB.
Maybe Perriman needs the Kearse treatment and get LASIK. Or he needs hours in front of the jugs gun.
Very good question there Ross, I thought they had something about this on NFL.com, but I could be mistaken,
Honestly this guy looks pretty good…maybe if he’s available end of round 2. The drops look bad, but his upsides look great: He gets open, his catches look great, he’s tallish, and he seems to have great ball vision.
It happens every year – someone gets hyped and over drafted. Mr. Perriman, this year it could be you! I’m not sure Pete and John have ever drafted a hype guy – arguably, they may have drafted guys before others would have, but they don’t draft the guys everyone else says is great.
They did back when they had early picks (you know, that one year). Earl was the consensus best FS in the draft, and the top OT was a coin toss between Trent Williams (who was already off the board) and Okung.
That qb was pretty awfuk at times. I guess I see a wr who has some size and good speed, but the separation isn’t always there. You’d like to see more from a college receiver. He seems like a solid guy, but 13% is bananas.
I can certainly see why this guy is garnering attention from the Mel Kipers of the world. He is a tantalizing mix of size and speed. The way he works the middle of the field on slants and seams is encouraging for a man of his size. I saw only one drop in the NC State tape, and honestly the ball placement could have been better.
The quality of quarterback here makes it very difficult to judge this guy, I will say this, however, everytime the UCF QB went somewhere else with the football, I thought to myself, “why didn’t he throw to Perriman? He was wide open.”
Anyways, I’ll watch more film, but leave by saying – you can teach a guy better catching technique, but I have yet to see a coach make a receiver grow taller.
This scouting report makes me think of Koren Robinson.
I like Perriman better than Funchess. Too bad he doesn’t have Jaelin Stong’s hands. In an offensive predicated on efficiency its hard too believe the Hawks will take him too high unless he falls too where the value matches need. I will say that he has the ability to make difficult catches that are thrown poorly. I just don’t know if it makes up for the drops of the easy passes.
TE Funchess screams Patriots to me. They have been desperate to get back to the 2 TE offense made famous in 2012 or so….. He would be able to line-up all over the field, essentially a mirror of what Gronk can do. Patriots love multiple guys who can do the same thing…. making their offense even more explosive.
What is Sammie Coats drop rate? I like him in the Second he is probably a top 60 pick. Reports say he will run under 4.5. NFL.com gave him a Kenny Britt comp for what that is worth. I would rather have WR that gets open and drops a few compared to WR who struggles to get open.
Coates and Perriman have the same problem — very ugly, basic drops.
I’m a firm believer in the need for speed in the Seattle WR group. If Seattle pics a WR early, they must feel that the player is exceptional in some way. Route running, hands, ability to separate from defenders and top end speed.
Coates, Dorsett and Smith stand out as a fit for Seattle, but if you have to pick only one, which would it be? I’m pretty sure Smith will be gone by #31, so that leaves Coates and Dorsett. If the reports are true at how fast and suddeness Dorsett displays on the field, Seattle has to go with him… even if Kiper says they should.
I do not see value taking a TE at #31. None of the TEs wow the critics. I’d rather go for a TE in the late 3rd round or 4th round, since the value would be appropriate for a “blocking” TE. (Nick Boyle)
I’m not so sure like everyone else that we need a WR in the number 1 spot. Yah we been looking for the tall red zone receiver, the fast receiver to stretch the defense vertically. But the bottom line is we have been fighting with what we have and we have won consistently. It took Tate 2 years to come into his time. The window for the next 4 years is open don’t reach for talent that just isn’t in this draft.
This is not the year for receiver especially where we are picking this year. What we need is a PR/KR who can produce positive yards on special teams because that was the greatest weakness we had last year. There’s plenty of WR/PR/KR in this years draft. We didn’t reach for a franchise QB when we needed one and I don’t think we reach for one in a class that will need a couple years to get it together.
I will say this now TODD GURLEY is the next Barry Sanders or Walter Payton you pick. He is that guy when you watch him play you never forget period…
I’d disagree Madmark — I think when you see Wilson with 8-10 seconds to throw as he did at the end of the first quarter of the Super Bowl — and nobody can get open — it goes to show how they just need better players at that position. They’ve won in spite of the lack of great receivers. Imagine this offense if they can finally get the guy they hoped Harvin and Rice would turn out to be?
They were dropping 7/8 Rob and with a mix of zone and man that doesn’t leave a lot of windows. And in the 2/3 quarter, they started beating the coverage when Wilson started going deep.
If you give a group of receivers nearly ten seconds to get open it needs to happen — against any coverage.
Todd Gurley looks nothing like Barry Sanders. I’ll give you the Walter Payton comparison, but he looks more like Corey Dillon, speed, power and balance (not ML balance but still good).
Gurley is Herschel Walker 2.0
I guess I should explain the Barry Sanders comparison and that is when he running the ball your excitement level goes up.
I get it now.
I just don’t see Gurley staying healthy and having a long career with the type of running style he is projected to play. He is already breaking down in college. For other positions those knee injuries would not be as significant but for a power RB like him they are concerning. If we take him I hope I’m wrong.
This is what I see when watching UCF WR Breshad Perriman. Good size, quick off the snap, and some ‘chunk play’ potential. His negatives far outweight the positives.
He’s supposed to have good bloodlines, I don’t see it. For a WR of his size he easily gets re-directed. Doesn’t come back to the ball, and with a scrambling QB, we’ve seen how that works out. It’s like he just waits for the ball. His route running is sloppy, he rounds them off, and for me personally that’s something he’s going to struggle with at the next level. Really lacks good technique, and strikes me as a guy who doesn’t give a ton of effort.
Agreed.
The dude looks the part for sure, but he is not a natural catcher. Watching the tape above there were 2-3 bad drops, but another 4-5 plays where he “double catches” the ball. In the NFL, if you don’t cleanly catch the ball and bobble it even a bit, you better pray it doesn’t get picked.
My bet is that we’ll see that his hands are small. That seems to be a common thread with receivers that have a hard time hands catching the ball.
Cysco, I think that’s the perfect way to describe Perriman.
‘double catches/r,’ is very fitting.
I love Mayock as one of the most knowledgeable analysts out there and I know he’s not one to just throw out names but his positional rankings are as banal and vanilla as it gets. I was just slightly surprised that he had Funchess at 5 as a WR but past that meh mostly filler until the combine begins.
Off topic my slow simmering affair with Jaelen Strong is over. I rewatched all his cut ups last night (because I’m the oldest mid 30’s dude I know) and his technique is almost text book how he gets his head around, hands up, watches the ball in. time after time if his mediocre QB throws it to him its, catch, catch, catch obviously he takes pride in fundamentals. And weirdly he reacts and throws his body into any blocking duty with a good deal of authority for a a WR. But for a tall 6’2″-3″ 205-15 lb player he is the least sudden player I’ve seen. He just lopes into his routes with zero authority, honestly its kind of funny in a,way that he just runs exactly the route with no sell or fake or anything and is basically reliant on his Qb putting it near him. Which could be seen as some positive I suppose. For those still interested in Strong I’ll eat my words if he goes off at the combine but honestly I have a feeling that the combine may do him no favors or be more realistically a mixed bag with great results in half the categories and bottom end results in the others.
Agreed RE: Strong.
Great hands catcher. Solid technique. In fact, watching his catches reminds me of when I first watched OBJ highlights last year. I was struck by how confidently and securely he snatched the ball out of the air. Strong has that same hands catching ability.
But…..
OBJ’s suddenness, explosiveness and speed is on another planet compared to Strong. We already have a receiving corp that struggles to get open and create separation. Strong appears to be more of the same. A Taller Doug Baldwin if you will. I think Strong will make a solid #2 or #3 receiver, but he doesn’t appear to be a feature WR to me at least.
This is great stuff.
Strong has some absolutely major positives, but his negative of not being able to separate/get open is really the nail in the coffin for me. I watched more of him last night as well and the only times I really saw him get open, was blown coverage.
He has fantastic hands and high pointing ability, but he just can’t get open. I’ve heard Boldin comparisons, but in no way do i see that. Boldin, despite average long speed, can get open with short area quickness and strength. I don’t see that with Strong.
Personally, I think Strong is a lesser version of Keenan Allen, who posted slow 40 times, but had really nice lateral quickness. I don’t see that in Strong. IMO, he’s a 3rd Round prospect who can be a nice #2, IF he plays with a top notch QB who can put the ball in the right area.
“I rewatched all his cut ups last night (because I’m the oldest mid 30’s dude I know)”
🙂
I know how you feel!
Yeah, I was a fan of Strong earlier in the year, then I wasn’t, then I was again, and now I’m kind of leaning to ‘not so much.’
I mean, don’t get me wrong, I think he has a unique ability to highpoint passes and make acrobatic catches look routine, but after reading that Seattle likes ‘lower body explosion’ in their WRs and places a premium on the broad/vertical jump, I’m not so sure Strong possess those attributes.
His combine will be intriguing,
Volume12 oddly I think his very and even his broad could be good but then I think his 3 cone and Te yard split will be kind of ugly…
Your probably right Peter.
Its probably a contest a lot of us are entered into!
Another great thought provoking article , thanks Rob. The more I look at the WR class the more I’m convinced that the Hawks will NOT go there at 31. There are so many quality but flawed (??) guys out there who seem to fall into the 50-100 range. It’s almost a case of pick your poison with this bunch. As is always the case, count on a few teams to overdraft to fill a need. I personally think that will happen with CBs this year. Dropping out of the first will be tough with the perceived lack of QB’s ,if it does happen it will be someone trying to move up for a Gurly or Gordon. If the Hawks do go WR in the first im intrigued by Devin Smith. This guy is a deep ball machine and I think that RW is arguably the premier deep ball thrower in the game… That’s precisly why they drafted PR last year and given his injury uncertainly I could see them revisiting that again.
The Hawks always target players with their first pick(s) that:
a. Possess unique physical abilities/attributes
b. Have proven production in college
There are likely two receivers that will check those boxes at the end of the first. Unfortunately neither one of them is a tall physical receiver. Devin Smith and Phillip Dorsett.
I’ll be really curious to see how both those guys do at the combine. I really want to see Smith in the route drills and I can’t wait to see what vertical jump numbers these guys put up. Seeing if either of them can break 4.4 in the 40 will also be interesting as well as who is faster and by how much.
How will these two guys measure up next to OBJ’s measurables from last year? Should be fun to watch.
This is why I’m high on USC WR Nelson Agholor. I’m going to continue banging the table for him, he just seems so ‘Seahawks,’ and after listening to JS describe what they like in WRs, Agholor fits that description perfectly.
A. His unique physical attributes are his length, and I’m willing to bet, his insane vertical/broad jump. Again, you guys may be getting sick of me using this phrase, but ‘lower body explosiveness,’ he has in spades. And he has some of the best ‘quicks’ out of this year’s class.
B. You wanna talk about insane production. 2014 CFB stats- 104 rec., 1313 yds., 12 TDs, an average of about 13 yds per reception. 20 PR, 197 yds., 2 TDs. He was especially dominant the 2nd half of the season.
Without a doubt the value at WR is in the R2-3 range and probably not at #31. Free agency will be fascinating because this team has shown they’d rather reach to get a guy they like at a need position (Britt last year) than miss out altogether. If they don’t get a veteran WR, I can see another reach this year.
I have to say, I’m very intrigued by Breshad Perriman. He’s a big dude with some awesome suddenness to his game. He might be on of the top guys with the sheer ability to “get open.” He has enough outstanding catches to lead me to believe he has good hands, it might just be a concentration problem. Not sure I’d take him in R1, but I do think he has the ceiling to become a legit #1 WR, at least from a “demands attention” perspective.
All that said, I’m actually starting to really like Sammie Coates. I know the drop issue has been brought up, but he is a guy who plays with passion and looks/sounds like he has a tremendous work ethic. Not to mention, there are few humans with that type of strength, speed, and length. There are a few plays where he absolutely leaves high end/NFL caliber DBs in the dust. He looks very Seahawky and I could see him really impressing the staff with his passion + athletic ability.
All in all, I really would like to see a premium pass catching talent get paired with RW and allowed to grow. RW is now in a leadership role where he can help mold a young WR.
Sammie Coates has the physical skills of T.O. and the hands of Luke Willson.
quote of the week
Absolutely. That said, I just think his athletic potential is too great to pass up. Granted, I say that with the caveat of “if his work ethic and passion” checks out.
That’s how all draft synopsis should read!
The Seahawks will evaluate the receiver draft class, like they do all positions, by looking for players with unique qualities which can be optimized, regardless of other, seemingly conventional flaws. To that end, JS said something interesting on his 710 ESPN segment with Brock and Salk the other day.
When asked how he evaluates which players ‘love to play football’ JS responded by saying he watches how they play and, paying special attention to players who don’t finish plays vs those that do. He said it’s easy to get fooled by the talent and upside of a player if they aren’t even motivated to play through the whistle, and that he has made that mistake multiple times in the past (his words, not mine.)
So I would say the most important factor in predicting what the Seahawks will do, especially at WR, is to look for players who play hard through the whistle on every play, regardless of body type or other conventional measurements. First and foremost. After listening to that JS interview more than once I have to think that drops and speed – or relative lack thereof – would be secondary if they thought a receiver had the grit and motivation they covet, along with at least a threshold of physical talent.
Hindsight is 20/20, but using this criteria, PReach might have stood out a little more than he did last draft. It’s a hard thing to evaluate, though, from our position. We don’t have the practice tape and only a handfull of game tape. But if any receiver stands out within our limited resources for at least going full speed all game, every play, it should cause bells to go off. As far as Perriman is concerned, I don’t see him failing the grit test necessarily, but I don’t see him acing it either. At the time of writing this I don’t have an immediate gritty Seahawk WR in mind, but I will go back and rewatch the video of the usual suspects with my grit lenses on.
Good points.
Nicely put bigD.
As a big fan of Miami WR Phillip Dorsett, USC WR Nelson Agholor is growing more and more on me, and becoming extremely appealing.
Agholor is a guy who leaves it all on the field and gives 110%. Not only is he highly focused, driven/motivated, but I think he’s got some real grit to him as well.
I wish there was more game tape available of Deontay Greenberry. In the one, short video I’ve seen his grittiness jumps off the screen, though his measurables may not be first round quality.
Agholor is a guy whom, if we want him we have to over draft him. Yeah, he probably goes in the second round, but I could see him gone before our pick at 63. We might need to either trade back a little or use the #31 on him.
IMO he’s worth it.
Just think, if he had stayed for his senior year and had another year like he did in 2014, he’d be a mid 1st rounder.
You said “So I would say the most important factor in predicting what the Seahawks will do, especially at WR, is to look for players who play hard through the whistle on every play, regardless of body type or other conventional measurements. ”
I agree, and I get worried when people talk about SPARQ measurements and how awesome someone could be when their play doesn’t back it up. Anyone could have awesome SPARQ measurements, track athletes should do very well. That doesn’t mean they will be good football players. It also doesn’t mean that the quick fast light tweener will be able to hold down a position and be durable enough to last. We always get seduced by the small light guy – hey he ran a 4.3/40. But can he play the position without injuries?
Regarding getting open and the drop rate of receivers. It is desirable that a receiver get open and that they have good hands to catch passes. I would put a premium on the hands though. Without good hands they really aren’t a receiver, they are a defensive back (har har).
When JS said he had made that mistake more than once, the first player that came to mind was CMike. He was a SPARQ hero in the 2013 draft but can’t get on the field because he refuses to carry the ball in his left hand. I’m sure JS knew this going into that draft but the SPARQ score was irresistible at the time.
The player from the last draft that probably most apitomized the grit factor JS recently illuminated was Jarvis Landry. There was no receiver in that class with better snap-to-whistle effort and determination than him. But he was also the anti-SPARQ player from that daft, with measurables that probably scared a lot of teams. Yet, sure enough, he went on to have a great, gritty rookie season for the Phins.
It should be be emphasized that the recent JS grit comment is especially applicable to our receivers, more so than other position groups, for the simple reason that they have to practice against the LOB every day. Every one of our receivers must have an inner determination to finish every play because they practice against the best secondary in NFL history who does the same thing at the highest level, and will quickly get run over otherwise. If a receiver can finish against the LOB, they can finish against any NFL secondary.
Great point. Something I think we should all keep in mind.
Landry would have made the catch….
I always read how Prich was drafted to take the top off of the D and stretch the feild, although it seemed to be the only time I seen him go deep is when he got hurt. They seemed to use him underneath out in the flat, which I was actually impressed with his route running and his catching ability in doing so. Just seemed that he never did stretch the feild or go deep EVER not even as a decoy.
It my have to do with the fact that NFL CBs can stay with receivers step for step.
They knew what they had in P-Rich deep ball wise, but let him get his feet under him and show he can do other things, so opposing teams then have to respect that deep speed as well, and can’t cheat off of him,
Off topic a bit, but I think we really missed Preach in the SB. To that end, I assumed/hoped we would run Lockett deep on Browner every other play. Either expose the space created underneath, or throw it long… and run him silly regardless. We can all likely remember how grabby BB was in Seattle. Really thought it was a missed opportunity to get either chunk plays or 15 yd penalties. Perhaps we did this more than I realized, but seemed to me to be a missing part of the game plan. Who better to expose BB than his former team. Anyone else feel the same way or have insight? Again…sorry for going astray here.
No, I agree. Not only did they miss P-Rich in the SB, but he was sorely missed in the NFCCG. And Justin Britt for that matter, even with all his rawness,
I think P-Rich was starting to become a big part of this offense and showed he was capable of being a difference maker, which makes his injurie all the more frustrating/saddening.
I did see that JS said he was about 50/50 for the PUP list. Sure would nice to at least have him for half of this season or so.
Call me crazy but I’d like to see how Perriman plays corner.
What’s the adage: A corner is a WR with bad hands
Lippitt play’s corner..
If Perriman checks out in interviews, I could see Seattle loving the guy. Kinda Sidney Ricey, not as big, but maybe better after the catch. More fluid and natural of a runner. Rice wasn’t the greatest hands guy either.
And good God is Holman bad at throwing footballs.
Interviews is the second biggest concern with me regarding Perriman (after hands). A bit shy and goofy. Limited footage though.
Shy and Goofy? I’m all about that action, Boss.