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College football week six scouting notes: Duke lineman excels & Arvell Reese is a first round talent

October 9, 2025 /

It’s been a difficult college football season for scouting so far — and you’re well used to me saying it’s not looking like a great 2026 class at the moment. However, I wanted to focus on some positives today…

Duke lineman Brian Parker is very interesting

Last year Graham Barton, Duke’s left tackle, was drafted 26th overall by Tampa Bay with the intention of kicking inside. Parker feels like he could emulate that achievement and be taken in a similar range.

He is playing very well at right tackle. He’s a high performing, rounded player for the scheme the Seahawks are using. He is PFF’s highest graded zone blocker in college (any position) with a 95.3 grade.

Here’s what you see on tape. Parker moves people off the ball and is extremely physical. He shows good technique with the ability to consistently get his hands inside to control blocks. He’s very mobile and capable of progressing to the second level, then landing on secondary blocks.

He has forceful hands and can jolt defenders off balance with violence. With 9:46 left in Duke’s game on Saturday against California he pulled dove inside and absolutely demolishes the interior defender to the extent you see his head rock back. He’s desperately trying to re-compose himself but the job’s done from Parker. The running back ran through the hole created for a 30-yard gain.

On Duke’s final touchdown with six minutes left they ran behind Parker. He combo-blocked the defensive lineman then reached up to the linebacker:

Look at that jolt on the initial defender and then the quick reactions to land on the linebacker who is completed handled by Parker. The running back gets a ton of space to exploit and darts for a 47-yard score.

There are some issues that show up on tape too. He is susceptible to the occasional inside swim and I’m not sure he has great length or the ability to play inside/out at a high level in the NFL. He looks better in smaller spaces where he can use his hand placement square-on, linking his ability to control with the upper-body to his peppering feet and agility. He did also show at times a propensity to drop a little too deep, ceding ground to the edge rusher.

I think his natural progression is to kick inside. That’s where you’ll really max-out his skill-set. There’s been talk he could end up at center like Barton but I prefer him at guard. He’s 6-5 and 300lbs which isn’t a typical center frame.

I see him as a top-50 talent pre-testing who could effectively be the right-sided equivalent to Grey Zabel if you wanted to go in that direction. He is definitely a name to keep on your radar.

There are several interior linemen that are interesting in this class. I’ve been talking up Penn State’s Vega Ioane — a player I think could warrant going in round one potentially. Miami’s Francis Mauigoa might be best served kicking inside. That could also be the case for Iowa’s Gennings Dunker and some even feel that way about Spencer Fano at Utah. There are options here.

Arvell Reese can be a first round pick

The Ohio State linebacker is getting a lot of buzz online so I decided to check him out. He’s a very impressive talent.

He doesn’t look like a ‘big’ player despite being listed at 6-4 and 243lbs. However, on tape he plays with a thunderous ferocity. He can get under the pads of big offensive linemen, stack them up and disengage. His jolting punch is shocking for a linebacker to displace linemen and throw them off balance. It makes him a real menace defending the run and unlocks a pass-rushing repertoire you don’t often see from a linebacker.

How many players at his position can control an offensive tackle off the edge like this? He’s keeping his entire frame clean to be able to read the play and shed:

There are not many players who can just throw off linemen the way he can:

However, the thing that makes Reece truly special is he combines this unique power with extreme quickness and burst. I’m becoming increasingly obsessed with range and speed at linebacker after watching Fred Warner live twice in two years and seeing his super-human ability in person to fly to the ball-carrier and run to the sideline, whilst playing with forceful power. Reece has such incredible range and suddenness — that’s why he has a shot to be something special:

When he’s not flying to the ball-carrier or levelling blockers, he’s adept at filling gaps and putting a hat on a hat. He’s very light on his feet and will read/react to plays from his gap. When it’s time to sprint outside he’ll do it — dodging any blocks or stacking/shedding when he needs to. Or if he just has to run right into the running back and fill a hole, he does that too.

His pursuit speed is excellent. He plays with a fantastic motor. His ability to sift through traffic is top notch. His range of contain is superb — stalking opponents and timing the strike consistently well.

And then there’s the pass-rushing. Ohio State has dabbled with using him off the edge a bit and he can do that too. You wonder if he could actually develop into another Abdul Carter type if he sticks around at Ohio State for another year.

If he declares and is part of this 2026 class, which is so light at the top-end, he can be a very high pick.

Ty Simpson continues to shine at Alabama

I’ve been talking about Simpson for a while because he just looks the part. There’s something here which is very interesting. He might not declare as a one-year starter but then again, as an older player, he might see an opportunity — especially if Alabama keeps winning.

He impressed again against Vanderbilt last weekend. His first touchdown is fantastic — showing great movement to escape pressure, reset and then throw to the end-zone:

His second touchdown is a perfectly thrown ball using his eyes to keep the safety inside slightly, before delivering to the left pylon with textbook accuracy and loft.

Second touchdown is a perfectly throw, using his eyes to keep the safety inside slightly and then throwing towards the left pylon with textbook accuracy and loft.

Simpson showed off his arm with a 55-yard shot down the sideline with good placement to Ryan Williams for a big fain in the third quarter. Then, with 7:05 left in the third — he scrambles away from pressure moving to his left. He runs away from the pocket to the right sideline to buy himself time, then quickly stops, re-sets his feet, frames his body to the target and throws perfectly over the middle to the uncovering receiver for a big gain. The momentum of his body is still fading left so he does an excellent job generating velocity and staying accurate:

One of the things I really like about Simpson is his willingness to make plays from the pocket attacking the middle of the field. He isn’t in an offense setting the table for him, making his life easy. He’s going after coverages. He is showing a lot of promise as a third-down converter, both as a passer and with his legs.

On a 3rd and 5 with 10:54 remaining in the game he was pressured so had to leave the pocket. Simpson scrambles to the right sideline and as he is being tackled by a defender he throws back across his body to an uncovering receiver for a first down. You want your quarterback to be able to improv and deliver a little magic from time to time. Here’s a good example of that:

His QBR score since the week-one loss to Florida State is 90.0 exactly. He is playing better than any other quarterback in college at the moment. He is making NFL throws, he’s doing what you want to see a pro-prospect do to project to the next level. Nothing about his completions are high-percentage or cookie-cutter.

He did throw a bit of a lousy interception against Vandy — his first of the season — although it was on fourth down and he probably just executed the call and it wasn’t on. When it’s fourth down, you’re not eating the play because there’s no next down to live for. You might as well put it into the air but he threw into coverage and was picked off.

He does take some sacks trying to extend but you can live with it because when he does break contain or finds that extra space, he’s technically so good at re-setting he can make big things happen.

I don’t know if he’ll be part of the 2026 class but he’s a very interesting prospect and I’d recommend checking him out in the coming weeks.

Final point on Reuben Bain

The Miami defensive end is getting a lot of love online but I feel obliged to push back a little bit here. There’s no doubt he’s playing well and impacting games. However, from a pure next-level projection point of view I do have some reservations.

He is a bigger pass rusher and relies on power a little too much for my liking. There have been some examples on tape where he bends and straightens off the edge but I feel like a very small sample is doing a lot of heavy lifting for what he can do as a player. There’s some stiffness to his game, he is not particularly twitchy and he’s not a loose-hipped athlete. I’d also note that his motor isn’t relentless and while there’s no doubting his jolting power at times, I’m not convinced he’s going to boss around NFL blockers.

One of the consistent mistakes draft media makes are to over-project bigger edge rushers. We see it every year — players in that 270-280lbs range who get hyped up as a first rounders but settle into day two. Nic Scourton is a good example this year. Many were projecting him to go very early and he ended up being the 51st overall pick. AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham. This is a common trend.

I’m not saying Bain will last well into day two — especially in this class — but I’m not buying the talk of him being a potential #1 overall prospect or even necessarily a player warranting a first round grade. He’s good — but not as good as some are hyping up.

Why Maxx Crosby could be a trade option for the Seahawks

October 8, 2025 /

When the Raiders extended Maxx Crosby’s contract in March, it looked like a commitment by the player to finish his career in Las Vegas.

A further study of his contract, however, suggests otherwise.

Typically when players sign big extensions it’s difficult to trade them without major financial consequences. For example — if the Browns trade Myles Garrett today, they would take on a $68m dead cap-hit for 2026 and have to eat another $20m this year. Moving him would be financial insanity.

No such restriction exists with Crosby. If the Raiders traded him away before the November 4th deadline, their dead cap-hit is only $5m this year and $5m next year.

The obvious conclusion to draw from this is the deal was window dressing — an extension done to remove any speculation about his future (Crosby, on his podcast, sympathised with Garrett after he announced his trade request in Cleveland). Combined with the appointment of Pete Carroll, who immediately talked about winning in 2025, it gave the impression the Raiders meant business. They were trying to engage the fanbase.

We’re in a very different time now. The Raiders have collapsed to 1-4 with a 40-6 pasting by the Colts the latest setback. The fans and media have turned on Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith. For the last two weeks Carroll has been asked about whether he’ll bench Smith for Kenny Pickett.

The all-in nature of the Raiders’ plan for this year hasn’t worked. They didn’t just hire a now 74-year-old Head Coach. They paid a fortune to bring Chip Kelly in as offensive coordinator. Patrick Graham, a highly rated defensive coordinator, was also retained. They aggressively pursued this vision and it’s hard to imagine they’ll tolerate much more of what we saw on Sunday. The Raiders franchise, even before Tom Brady’s arrival, has frequently hired and fired coaches.

Their next game is against the Titans. Lose that and it could spell trouble. Then it’s the Chiefs and Jaguars before the trade deadline. This is a key period where the Raiders are either going to turn a corner or face a brutal reality.

As passionate as Crosby is about his current team, he must surely be second guessing his future. As a player who gives every ounce of his being to every game, does he want to do that again for another lost season? Before potentially greeting another new regime? He’s reaching the time in his career where the next five years will determine so much — namely his ability to play meaningful football games at the business end of the season.

That contract definitely says ‘we will play this by ear’. The player clearly wanted flexibility and by agreeing to the contract, it seems like the team appreciates they can turn Crosby into stock for the future.

Could he be a target for the Seahawks?

According to Albert Breer, they pitched the idea of trading Geno Smith and DK Metcalf to Vegas for Crosby in the off-season. The Raiders turned it down. So we know they at least have some interest (an obvious statement given Crosby’s impact and talent).

He’s one of the few players in the NFL I’d be willing to go big on. His relentless playing style, personality and production can be a game-changer. He’s a true star off the edge.

You might only get four great years out of him but the Seahawks are entering a window where they need to take the next step. Finishing second or third in the NFC West and hoping to make the wildcard round has been their trend for a while now. Getting to the next step is often the hardest one and requires the addition, one way or another, of blue-chip talent.

Sam Darnold’s performances at quarterback are giving cause to believe this team can make some noise. The offense is humming. Surprisingly, it’s the defensive side of the ball that has at times looked like it needs help.

Before the season I pushed back on an aggressive trade because I thought the Seahawks needed to retain stock in case Darnold didn’t pan out. That concern is being swept away.

The 2026 draft also has to be considered. I have 96 players on my 2026 horizontal board currently. I’m finding it desperately hard to discover legit first round talents. This isn’t a draft class that appears to have much in the way of depth or top-end quality. There’s still time for that to change but we’re into October now. We’re not going to see a ton of movement in that regard.

I’d also argue there are not a lot of options emerging at cornerback or edge rush — two positions that could warrant strong consideration by the Seahawks.

Make no mistake, you would have to give up a lot for Crosby. Perhaps throwing Uchenna Nwosu into the mix, a Carroll favourite, could sweeten the deal? Or Riq Woolen or Boye Mafe? I suppose that would depend on how committed the Raiders are to Carroll.

Even then you’d be talking about your first round pick next year and something else of significance. There would also likely be a bidding war for his services which would ramp up the cost.

It might be time to roll the dice. With Crosby under contract until 2029, you wouldn’t have to worry about that angle either.

This isn’t just a wide open NFC this year. It’s a wide open NFL. We might see two teams in the Super Bowl few would’ve expected mere weeks ago. The Seahawks have a very competitive, talented roster — but they’re short of something. Adding an X-factor defender could be the missing piece.

Crosby’s contract was set up to have this kind of conversation about a trade. As he gets older, the trade compensation will decrease. If the Raiders are preparing to embrace a rebuild, I’d imagine they’d get more in a deal today than March.

I would consider it. I would be bold. With Crosby on Seattle’s roster they could’ve been 5-0 right now. Easily.

It won’t be cheap but it might be the thing that makes this season very interesting.

I discussed the subject with Puck today and you can check out our conversation below:

Instant reaction: Seahawks lose shoot-out against Tampa Bay

October 5, 2025 /

In a way, I’m grateful for the old familiar melancholic feeling after witnessing a disappointing defeat. In recent years they haven’t felt like they mattered all that much. This one stung.

This Seahawks team feels like it could do some damage in the NFC. That’s what makes it all the more difficult to take.

However, I’m going to start by choosing to focus on the positives — because I think the positives are potentially long-lasting and significant and the negatives are explainable, fixable and come with justifiable injury-related excuses.

Sam Darnold was exceptional. Nobody should be lingering on a flukey interception at the end, pinging off a Tampa Bay helmet and elevating the ball into an area where it could be picked off. It’s unlucky and I think without that deflection, the ball just hits the turf and they’re onto the next play.

Seattle’s quarterback made things happen today, highlighted by explosive plays downfield and a truly sensational improvised touchdown to Tory Horton. It was a masterclass of quarterbacking between two exciting QB’s getting a second chance at a career. It’s a shame Darnold won’t get the bulk of the attention this week as a potential MVP candidate because he didn’t win the game. Baker Mayfield will get it instead — but he deserves it. Both players were sensational.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the best receivers in the league. He has arrived at that status. His chemistry with Darnold is superb and he’s a pleasure to watch. The Seahawks have a star on their hands and a winning duo for their passing game — complemented wonderfully by a very solid supporting cast.

The offensive line is not flawless but it is far better than it was last year and I’d suggest it’s the best it’s been in years. The running game is coming to life and is gradually improving.

Finally, I have absolutely no doubt that Klint Kubiak was the right man to be offensive coordinator and I think they nailed that hire.

These are all major highlights for this team. When you turnover so much on offense, to feel this good about the unit is such a positive. If Darnold continues to play at this level you have a 28-year-old quarterback reaching the prime years of his career. If he retains his current play and we’re saying the same things in the off-season, I’d argue this year will be a success irrespective of what else happens. Finding a quality young quarterback is very difficult and shouldn’t be taken for granted.

However, they lost today for two main reasons (at least in my opinion).

Firstly, they’ve got to stop getting in their own way. Stodgy game-planning and key errors cost them in week one against San Francisco. They made hard work of a game they mostly dominated against Pittsburgh (trailing 14-7 at half-time when they should’ve been winning). In Arizona they were coasting until things unravelled at the end. They shouldn’t have needed to rely on a last gasp drive-and-kick to win that one.

Today the missed field goal early on was an unforced error and so was the Jalen Milroe fumble. I don’t understand why they persisted with the Milroe package and said so after the Green Bay pre-season game. He had not shown enough ‘juice’ to feel like it was worth persevering with. It isn’t producing an X-Factor, it’s just producing a moment to watch through your hands. It isn’t doing the player or team any favours. When they went with it today, I was immediately fearing the worst. The call and the execution was poor. Time to shelve this idea.

It’s as if they justified the Milroe pick in round three at the time because they could find an immediate role for him. Now, they feel obliged to pay lip service to that original thought. Don’t. It is what it is and it isn’t worth the risk. Darnold is playing too well to take the ball out of his hands and put the third string quarterback on the field, even just to hand it off or try and pitch the football.

They need to find a way to avoid putting themselves in difficult spots, or not capitalising fully on their own successes. They need to get out of their own way.

Secondly, the defense is clearly looking broken due to the injuries. Mike Macdonald’s system doesn’t rely on individuals. It relies on everything working together and connecting. The pass rush won’t work if the coverage stinks and vice versa. Today, the coverage was awful and easily abused. When you then take Derick Hall off the field early on and reduce your pass-rush options further, it’s a bad mix.

The lingering injuries for Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon are concerning. They need to get both players back because people were taking the field in that secondary today who, to put it bluntly, are probably practise squad level at best.

They might need to get creative in the trade market soon, as they did a year ago, to fix some issues on defense and cover injuries.

A final point on this being another home loss. I think this one is a bit more easier to stomach all considered (it’s hardly the Bills or Packers game from last season, or the 2024 Steelers game) — yet it really is deflating that the ‘Lumen losses’ continue to stack. With a seven-point lead late on it was a great chance for the defense to step up, make a play and get the kind of great home win to show things were turning. Instead, it’s two defeats out of three at home and they are still struggling to beat good teams at Lumen Field.

There are way more positives than negatives for this team and there’s still a great opportunity to have a very strong season in a wide open NFC. However, Jacksonville (A), Houston (H) and Washington (A) are three tough games to have next — especially with injuries. This is going to be a real test.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week Five vs Tampa Bay)

October 5, 2025 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks start their second quarter with a fantastic matchup.  The Buccaneers are a great test to see where the Seahawks stand in the NFC landscape.  They are also a perfect gauge of progress the team has made since last season.  They had a gut-wrenching string of four straight home losses at this stretch in 2024, including winnable games against the Rams and Giants.  It ultimately cost them a shot at the division and the playoffs.

The Bucs stand at 3-1 despite being hammered by injuries.  They are slow starters (currently 24th in the NFL in first-quarter scoring), have been behind late in the fourth quarter of every single game this year — but Baker Mayfield has fought and clawed his way to making his team successful.  While flawed, they are mentally tough.  They should provide a good challenge to see if this team is truly adaptable and focused enough to execute.

How can they move to 4-1 and position themselves as a serious contender?

Beat the Blitz

Tampa has always been one of the NFL’s most aggressive teams in terms of blitzing on defense.  This year they stand at #3 in the NFL, blitzing at over 36% of plays.  Incredibly, they are only generating pressure to the Quarterback on 19% of plays, good for #16 in the NFL.

That is not a great return on investment.  It can be exploited in three ways…

First, keep doing what you are doing.  Sam Darnold in the first four games has nearly perfected the high-pressure blitz-beating pass offense.  His quick reads, spot on accuracy combined with the receivers and Tight Ends ability to run routes that quickly present a target has worked very well so far.  Darnold is among the NFL’s quickest, most accurate but also deepest passers.

Clocking the incoming blitzer and finding the best option is a real antidote to this high-pressure front that Tampa Bay employs.  It might be a silver bullet-type weapon that makes this game easier than it would appear.

Second, a well-timed run into the teeth of the blitz might exploit some of the gaps left by blitzers abandoning their post.  Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak being able to time up some of these runs could really make a very long day for the defense.  With Kenneth Walker, who is able to juke about anyone in the open field, and Zach Charbonnet, who has a relentless drive to keep the ball moving forward, the Seahawks could really break the chains of the Bucs’ impressive 3.3 yards per carry conceded number.

Third, using the Running Backs as receivers out of the backfield could be a very potent weapon when the defense blitzes.

Have a look at this pass to Bijan Robinson in the flat.  Tampa has sent Corner Jamel Dean and YaYa Diaby to bring six men into the box and Michael Penix has found Robinson on the flat.

Robinson makes quick work of SirVocea Dennis and scampers 50-yards with the help of downfield blockers for the touchdown.  It is not hard to see Kenneth Walker doing something similar in a high-leverage situation.

Fourth, Sam Darnold needs to occasionally exploit the gaps in the middle of the field to run.  Look at him run for 24 yards against Arizona.  When there are six rushers, that means there are five defenders dropped.  That means players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp are stressing defenders and drawing the coverage and opening up gaps to exploit.

Punishing the blitz on a consistent basis does not always mean making splashy plays.  It just means finding and exploiting the weakness the Bucs have exposed by sending extra men on the rush.

Make the Bucs Offense One-Dimensional

Bucky Irving is out for this game and his impact on the offense cannot properly be quantified.  He currently is one of the NFL leaders in touches.  In fact, Irving is both Tampa’s leading rusher AND receiver at this point in the season. He has accounted for 46% of the offense’s touches through four games.

Rachaad White is a perfectly fine backup to Irving but he will be easier to contain as a core piece of the Tampa offense.

Tampa has been truly awful on third downs this season, converting 37% of them, keeping them just outside of the ten worst teams this season.  That was with Irving.  The Seahawks defense has been conceding only 39% of third down conversions.

Currently, Baker Mayfield is leading the team in first-down runs.

If the defense can force Mayfield to need to win the game with his legs and his arm, they can truly control the pace of this game and give the offense chances to win the Time of Possession battle and perhaps even acquire some turnovers as the offense needs to take more shots to keep pace with the Seahawks.

Curtis Allen’s First Quarter 2025 Report Card

October 3, 2025 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Record: 3-1

Thoughts

Last year, the team also started 3-1 in their first four games.  They then lost four out of their next five and it cost them the division and a playoff spot.

What is the difference between last year and this year?  The peaks and valleys last year turned out to be prescient of the next few weeks.  The team struggled with a different facet of the game nearly every week.

This year is a far more balanced 3-1 team.  Both the offense and defense are high in the top-10 in scoring and special teams had an ‘explosive trifecta’ this quarter: A blocked punt and return touchdowns on both a punt and a kickoff.

There are things to work on to be sure, but the fundamentals of this team are strong.  Something fans have not been able to say for years.

MVP

1a. Sam Darnold

The decision by the Seahawks to pivot quickly from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold in March made a lot of sense on paper.  Darnold was younger, cost less, and was a natural fit in the new offense Mike Macdonald was installing with Klint Kubiak.

Mixing all the ingredients and making the offense go is another matter altogether.  How would Darnold fit in the locker room?  Would he be able to quickly form chemistry with his new group of receivers, most notably new top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba?  Would concerns about his late-season struggles under the face of pass-rush pressure doom an offense that had only added Grey Zabel to its Offensive Line?  Is his success totally dependent upon being carried by a dominant running game?

All questions and concerns have been answered to the extent that they can be in the first four games.

Darnold is among the NFL’s best passers statistically.

Perhaps the best stat to distill Darnold’s play so far might be On Target Throw Percentage from Pro Football Reference.  They take Total pass attempts and remove Spikes and Throwaways to get a better picture of a Quarterback’s accuracy.

Darnold is far and away leading the NFL with an 82.8% number.

He is above a group of players at around 80% On Throw Percentage: Daniel Jones, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff.

The big difference between Darnold and that tier of Quarterbacks is throwing short passes at a very healthy clip.  They are all in the 5.5-6.8 Air Yards per Completed Pass, while Donald is clocking in at 8.1 – deepest average in the NFL.

So, he is more accurate than everyone else while throwing much farther than his next best Quarterback.

Does he have chemistry with his teammates?  Yes, he does.

Draw up a realistic best-case scenario for the first four games the moment Darnold signed with the Seahawks in March.  This is exactly what it would look like.

1b. Leonard Williams

His renaissance continues right where he left off last season.  At 31, he again is on track to match his career-best numbers in all the important stats: sacks, pressures, tackles for loss, passes defensed and solo tackles.

Opposing offenses give him extra attention and still cannot contain him.

Mike Macdonald – a coach who does not dole out praise liberally – recently said “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.” 

Through four games, the Seahawk defense has generated a 25.3% pressure rate (good for #5 overall in the NFL) while only blitzing on 14.9% of plays (#31 in the NFL!).

Williams is a big part of the reason why.  Getting effective pressure early in the season like this allows Mike Macdonald to not need to reveal his entire blitz package so early.  He is able to keep his cards close to the vest as the season progresses and save them for key moments.

Williams has always lived on the lower end of the NFL’s top 10 inside linemen.  He is highly valued around the league but his tremendous skillset and athleticism always left you wanting a little more from him in games.

No longer.  He has arrived, and the defense would not be the same without him.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Plug in his stats and project them over a season and he is on course to top his career-best season from last year.

That is to be expected.  A top-20 draft pick making good and getting better every season of his rookie contract should not surprise anyone.

What makes it so impressive is he is doing it while breaking in his third consecutive Offensive Coordinator in as many seasons.  Added to that, he is working with a new Quarterback.  Added to that, the running game is not hitting on all cylinders yet, putting pressure on the passing game to excel.  Added to that, Smith-Njigba is clearly the top target with D.K. Metcalf gone, so he is getting the bulk of Defensive Coordinator attention.

If all that doesn’t get him into the team MVP conversation, this will:

He is on track to record 77 first downs.  He had a fantastic 57 last year.  He is on pace to be a top-five player in the NFL in first downs and moving the chains is incredibly valuable.

Rookie of the Quarter

  1. Grey Zabel

Zabel might be the best example in recent Seahawks history of Occam’s Razor.

The Offensive Line badly needed an upgrade.  At Left Guard if possible.

If that person could be strong enough, talented enough and available when they picked in the first round of the draft, it would be the perfect intersection of talent, value and need.

And if he could snap into the starting Offensive Line from Day One of camp like a three-year NFL veteran, that would be great.

Oh, and if he could live up to all the expectations and maul some people while keeping his Quarterback clean, that would be great too.

Zabel has been all that and more.  A seamless fit on the team.  It’s almost as if he was fated to be a Seahawk in this offense.

Probably the greatest compliment he gets is little to no coverage in broadcasts, except to point out his effort and great play.

In a game so competitive that major roster shuffling is a regular occurrence, it is rarely simple enough to just make a pick and count on a guy for the next 5-10 years without giving it a second thought.

Zabel and the Seahawks are doing just that.

2. Tory Horton

The fifth-round pick has turned whispers of being the Steal of the Draft in camp to real production on the field.

Three touchdowns in his first four NFL games is fantastic production.

Two of them came early on when the game was still contested, making them more valuable.

One of them is the 95-yard punt return that showcased his speed and ability to attack defenders and not just elude them.

It is just a glimpse of that production he can have if he keeps living up to his athletic potential.

He is also doing this while only having a split share of snaps.  Horton currently stands at 106 offensive snaps, only 44% of all the snaps on offense.

Horton has not replaced D.K. Metcalf.  But he most assuredly has eased concerns over where some of Metcalf’s production is going to come from.

3. Elijah Arroyo

Arroyo’s potential is well known by fans who have watched him since his college football days.

He delivered two key plays in a Week Four win against the Cardinals.  The first, being available on a scramble drill and taking advantage of being covered by 265-lb Josh Sweat.

The second, using a quick step to force Budda Baker to commit Pass Interference in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown.

As he and Darnold get acclimated to one another, Arroyo’s production will only grow — and he is going to get more opportunities to make an impact on offense.

In the meantime, he is doing some of the unseen chores that Tight Ends do:  be a lead blocker on wide zone runs and draw coverage attention to open the middle of the field for dump offs or Quarterback runs.

Successes

1. Defensive Continuity

Something we can take for granted at times is year-to-year greatness in one area of the team.

Things change quickly in the NFL, even when teams carry a large chunk of their coaches and players into the new year.  There is nothing automatic about it.  Every yard of success must be earned.  Just ask shell-shocked Ravens fans about the state of their current defense – bottom-five in most categories.

The Seahawks defense has not changed as the force that is pushing this team forward.

They currently surrender under 90 rushing yards per game and stand #2 in the NFL by conceding only 16.8 points per game.

They have not surrendered a rushing touchdown and are only giving up 3.6 yards per rush.

And it needs to be said again – they are the fifth-best defense in getting pressures while being next-to-last in blitzing rate.  That is coaching matching talent.

Last season it took some time and some in-season personnel adjustments to reach their potential.  This year, they have come out of the gate firing and supported the offense in a fine way.

They have not peaked yet.  Some things need work (see below).  But overall, the core of this team is in place and it gives them a chance to win any game.

2. The Roster Moves’ Impact on the Field

Core players Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have all moved on.

Making such dramatic roster moves carries a degree of risk that not all General Managers have the stomach for.  That is a lot of voltage going out the door.

What has kept this team on track, even moving forward?

A shared vision from top to bottom.  A commitment to lower-maintenance personalities in the locker room.  Placing a premium on finding players and coaches that fit what they want to do.

Veteran signings Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Lawrence.  A draft class that is already paying dividends.

These players are unified in their belief, and they want to be here, helping the team be as successful as they possibly can.

You can even point to far smaller moves garnering on-field results.

Committing to Josh Jobe instead of playing the Restricted Free Agent tender game and giving him snaps that he very clearly is earning.

Claiming Derion Kendrick has already proven a very shrewd move.

Not being afraid to give Tory Horton – a rookie and presumptive #3 Wide Receiver – punt return duties.

Getting standout special teams play from Chazz Surratt and D’Anthony Bell.

The roster is littered with ‘clear wins’ and many who have room to add even more than what they have in the first quarter.

Also not to be ignored is the team’s trust in their medical staff for guidance in their decisions.

Let’s hold off awarding John Schneider the same accolades he got for building the Legion of Boom teams.  But if this offseason is any indication, he is on his way to building another team that is deep, talented and very hard to beat.

3. The Blowout of the Saints at Lumen

The Saints are 0-4 and nobody is confusing them with a contender.

Let’s be clear though:  In all three of their other games (against San Francisco, Arizona and Buffalo) they put up a worthy fight.  They are not some sad-sack franchise who is already booking vacation flights and tee times for January (that is Tennessee’s lot in life right now).

The last time the Seahawks beat an opponent by as many as 31 points, it was 2020 when they pasted the New York Jets 40-3.  In that game, it was not well in hand until the end of the third quarter.  Against the Saints, the Seahawks took a 38-6 lead into halftime and were able to pull starters in the third quarter to rest them up for the upcoming Thursday Night game against a division rival.

Offense.  Defense.  Special Teams.  Everything was working.

And it was at home, where long-suffering fans were able to serenade their team and relax and celebrate a win before the game was half over.

It was glorious.

Challenges

1. The Running Game & Running Back Usage

For as much as we talk about the vision of this team, a big chunk of it remains an open question.

Brady Henderson recently pointed out that the Seahawks lead the NFL in runs with zero or negative gain.

They are not even supplementing the numbers by passing to the Running Backs to give them touches.  Last year Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet had 105 targets between them.  This year so far?  Nine.  That averages out to about 38 over the course of a season.  While there is a little silver lining to this stat, they currently are being criminally underused in this area.

Those dog December days of cold temperatures and rainy conditions will require the team to be able to get first downs and wear defenses out while eating clock.  If they cannot find yards on the ground, it could mean a quick exit come playoff time.

This core principle of the offense needs some production soon.

It is not going to get easier.  In the next four games, the Seahawks will face the current #4, 5, 11 and 13 rushing defenses.

Adding to the challenge is the placing of Fullback Robbie Ouzts on Injured Reserve, as he was establishing himself in the running game in a big way early on.

They must win the matchup in this critical area.  Or at least force it to a draw so the defense does not consistently flood coverage and disrupt the passing game.

2. Riq Woolen & the Corner Situation

Entering a contract year, following two seasons of mixed play, Woolen has a lot of pressure on him to perform.

Once again, the results have been mixed.  Woolen has suffered the curse of the cornerback, particularly in the opener against San Francisco:  Play good and not much is noticed.  Make mistakes at key moments and you get all the attention and have no one to blame but yourself.  It can be a lonely position on the field at times.

It could be that Woolen just does not fit Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme and moving on is the best option.  Woolen is a great instinctual player and it always appears like he is being asked to think more than react.  At times that hurts him.  He has given up key pass interference penalties and failed to high point or otherwise attack the football.  He seems to be committed to improving his tackling from prior seasons but it has not improved enough to offset the other troubles he has had.

So now we are in a spot where his name is being prominently mentioned as a trade candidate.  Once you get to that point, it may be best for everyone involved to part ways.

The Seahawks do have quality depth at Cornerback.  But being able to adequately fill in for a couple of quarters or a full game is one thing.  Being promoted to starter and being consistently adequate is another.

Given how critically important the two Woolen mistakes in the San Francisco game were, it may not be an overstatement to say how they handle the situation at Cornerback going forward may determine how deep they get in the playoffs.

3. Defending Tight Ends

Currently the Seahawks are one of the NFL’s worst defenses when covering Tight Ends.  No team has had the opposing offense target their Tight Ends more.  Their three touchdowns conceded to Tight Ends also is the highest in the NFL currently.

Some of it can be excused a bit as just the cost of doing business.  Through four games, they have faced George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Juwan Johnson and Trey McBride.  Nobody is going to keep a lid on that group.

It cools off slightly in the second quarter, with slates against Cade Otton, Brenton Strange, Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz.

It could be argued that at 3-1 this has not been a fatal weakness.  But it still needs tightening up.

Right now, the Seahawks are a bit stuck in coverage of Tight Ends with Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas at Linebacker and Nick Emmanwori out with injury.

Is it something that they can scheme up and fine tune to get better?

Second Quarter Games

Tampa Bay (double throwbacks!)

@Jacksonville

Houston (Monday Night Football)

Bye

@Washington (Sunday Night Football)

Goals for the Second Quarter

1. Beat Tampa Bay

The Bucs are a team that may be on the Seahawks’ radar for the playoffs.

A win at home with the same level of play we have seen in the first four games would go a long way towards strengthening their confidence, hopes of landing a playoff spot and having success in the postseason.

The list of Tampa players who likely or definitely will miss the game reads like a Pro Bowl roster.  Calijah Kancey, Mike Evans, Luke Goedeke, and Bucky Irving are high-quality players.  Losing those four would hurt any team.

On the other hand, All-World Left Tackle Tristan Wirfs got his first action last week, Emeka Egbuka is settling nicely into the NFL as one of the best rookies so far this year and Vita Vea is not at all interested in helping the Seahawks improve their running game.

And Baker Mayfield.  He is becoming the player many thought he could be, and is not afraid to take hits, run and dive for yards, or will the Bucs to victory in other ways.

Taking on and defeating a mentally tough team like this at this point in the season could be just what this team needs to build on their early-season momentum.

2.  Fit Nick Emmanwori into the Defense

Emmanwori has only played a handful of snaps this year.  The Seahawks declined to put him on Injured Reserve with his ankle injury and kept the possibility open of him returning to game action earlier than the four-week window.  It has been three full weeks and he should be nearing readiness to go.

Given his use in camp and in the preseason, Mike Macdonald had a very specific role in the defense in mind for him.  While he may not be a starter that plays most snaps on defense, it was clear they were counting on Emmanwori to be a key piece of this unit.

It naturally feels like his timeline this season has been stalled.  The first quarter was likely to be a break-in period and the team would intend to give him increasing responsibilities as he learned playing NFL offenses and how to properly use his enormous size and skill.

The dream is that Emmanwori and the team have been using the downtime to study game film and get him up to speed with more than just the basics.  But there is no substitute for game action.

If he can have a similar impact on the defense that say, rookie Tory Horton has had on offense, he can be a force multiplier that creates turnovers and forces Quarterbacks into taking checkdowns to avoid either getting sacked or intercepted by him.

3. Determine What Will Best Fortify the Roster Going Forward

Several important roster decisions are coming:

  • The window is now open for NFI & IR players to start practicing, most notably Christian Haynes and Johnathan Hankins
  • They have a bye in Week Eight, a great time to take a breath and reassess
  • The trading deadline is Tuesday Nov 4, two days after their Week Nine Sunday Night Football game in Washington

As good as John Schneider has been this off-season, he is best known in recent years for in-season moves.  He acquired Leonard Williams and Ernest Jones in consecutive seasons through trades and they have both proven to be excellent additions to the team with real, material impact on the field.  Will he strike again this year?

It does appear that there are opportunities.  The Seahawks have excellent depth currently on the roster but the chance to acquire a player that could be a difference-maker this year and potentially in future years could prove irresistible.

Another pass rusher?  A Linebacker or big Safety who can cover?  Another receiving weapon?  A Right Guard who can simply be invisible in games?

There is no doubt that John Schneider will continue being aggressive with trades.  The first quarter’s 3-1 record, great defense and establishment of Sam Darnold as a productive and affordable option at Quarterback give him plenty of justification to seek out every possible avenue to improve the team and keep the momentum going.

College football week five scouting notes: A quarterback emerges in the SEC and thoughts on my WR1

October 2, 2025 /

The standout performance of the week came from Alabama’s quarterback

It’s been an interesting last few days. The media, desperate for anyone to cling to given the disappointing performances from the big names in college football this season, have decided that Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is going to be their new poster boy.

Various pundits have talked him up with several even suggesting he could be the #1 pick next year. I watched the Oregon win at Penn State and feel this is a significant reach.

Moore is clearly physically gifted. There are throws on tape that are worthy of first round chatter. He’s well sized, has a good arm that generates easy velocity and he’s mobile. He played decently well on Saturday — but nowhere near well enough to warrant the reaction we’ve seen.

There were some inaccurate throws, at least one turnover worthy play and he looked exactly how you’d expect a naturally gifted five-star recruit with only 10 college starts to look. The desperation to find someone to talk about is going to do Moore no favours. This talented player, who is only 20-years-old, shouldn’t be talked about as a first round pick in 2026. He should be talked about as a potential high pick the year after. Let him play two seasons for Oregon. Let him learn his craft. This rush to crown him because the other players you expected to be pushing for top-10 contention are failing is irresponsible.

We’re doing this all wrong. Hyping players up too soon. Needing to create clicks for articles, views for videos and retweets for twitter. Content, content, content. The draft is big business and accurately saying the 2026 crop isn’t delivering isn’t a sexy enough storyline. The media needs a face of the draft. They’re trying to make it a player who would be best served ignoring the noise — but that’s so hard to do.

I’d also say I think Penn State are one of the most overrated teams in college football. They’ve been awful so far this season and I thought they were poor again here — so I don’t think this is anything significant that Moore, while admittedly in a hostile environment, led a vastly more talented roster with a superior Head Coach to a road win.

Some have said this week Moore will go on to become the best quarterback in college football in the second half of the season. I think it could just as easily be the returning John Mateer — who is seemingly recovering very quickly from his hand injury — or Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who was the real top performer of the weekend.

As with Moore, I don’t think we should necessarily be talking about Simpson for the 2026 draft. He has four career starts. Nobody should be coming into the league with such a low level of experience. However, he’s an older player who turns 23 in December. He sat for three years at Alabama biding his time. We’ll see what that means for his pro-prospects and it’ll likely depend on the feedback he gets from the league. It’d be good to see him do what Michael Penix Jr did and spend two years playing for Kalen DeBoer.

To me Simpson looks like a talent. On the road against Georgia he attacked the middle of the field with accuracy and aggression. He was tremendous in the red zone. He’s a very decisive quarterback with a fantastic release and no delayed motion. He gets the ball out quickly, on time and to the right place. He really had one bad throw five minutes into the game, forcing things on the run when he should’ve thrown the ball away, but other than that he played very well.

It sounds like such an obvious thing but so many college quarterbacks don’t drop and set properly with the right footwork or base. Simpson has it down — and it enables him to throw with a strong foundation in the lower body and deliver with accuracy.

Here’s a good example of everything mechanically just working:

He’s not veering all over the place as he drops or drifting in the pocket. Simpson is very efficient with his footwork, steps into the throw with base and just rockets it over the middle. This is a NFL play.

His arm is good and he can drive the ball into tight windows, yet has also shown he can deliver with touch to all levels. There’s a level of poise on tape and he doesn’t get flustered under pressure and he passes with good anticipation. There are not many players who can do this under intense pressure:

That’s just about as good a throw as you’ll see. He gets lit up as the ball is delivered and he knows it’s coming. Yet he stands tall, throws with fantastic accuracy, velocity and timing and makes an incredibly difficult completion to the left sideline.

Throwing on the run isn’t a problem for him and he’s a useful playmaker with his legs. You can imagine him being a big threat on bootlegs and he’ll extend drives with critical runs. He’s also not a slave to the play-call. He can improvise — and that doesn’t always mean crazy scrambling or being Brett Favre. It’s feel, instinct — sensing a developing situation and adjusting — as he did on this redzone touchdown:

In the Georgia game in particular he just didn’t make risky decisions yet equally didn’t appear conservative. His incomplete throws were typically aggressive ‘my receiver or nobody’s getting this’ type of plays. The defenders weren’t being given much of an opportunity to make a play on the ball. He excelled on third down, with Alabama going 13/19 on the night. That’s a big indicator for quarterbacks.

For the season so far he has 13 total touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now he has a big win at Georgia on his CV. Can Alabama go on from here? He will be well tested — the next few games are Tennessee (H), South Carolina (A), LSU (H) and Oklahoma (H). Keep winning and people will end up talking about him.

Personality wise he comes across a little bit like Kirk Cousins. His best friend is Tyler Booker, who we know was highly respected at Alabama for his character.

DeBoer, for all the criticism he’s received, has shown he can develop quarterbacks. I really like what I’m seeing from Simpson. This is a player with a pro future. Now it’s about showing this year and probably next year what his ceiling can be.

Simpson was the standout QB at the weekend and looks like a possible top player in the making. With him, Alabama can still have a better season than many expected after that week one pounding by Florida State.

The top receiver in the 2026 class?

Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell is easily the best receiver I’ve watched this season. His body control, gliding running style, ability to get open and propensity to make difficult catches is unmatched so far among draft eligible receivers.

He has a long, lean frame (listed at 6-5, 200lbs). If you don’t jam him at the line he can be virtually unstoppable. Against Mississippi State last weekend he could line up in the slot, run with suddenness to the space over the middle and it was a simple pitch-and-catch. Defenders aren’t quick enough to stick with him unless they rough him up.

His touchdown came from the slot, running the seam and with no contact to disrupt his route, he simply ran by the defender in coverage and then contorted his body to adjust to the ball and make a catch in the end zone.

On the next drive, he had a 32-yard reception in double coverage where he somehow twisted his body in mid-air while falling backwards to make a tremendously difficult catch.

He did have another downfield bomb for a touchdown called back for OPI. However, with Tennessee trailing 34-27 with under five minutes to go, he hung in the air on an in-cutting route to convert a 4th and 4. The pass was thrown behind Brazell, so he had to adjust to the ball. They scored a few plays later, before winning in overtime. He made it possible.

I also watched his game against Georgia recently, where he made multiple stunning plays and scored three touchdowns. He has 531 receiving yards in five games with seven touchdowns and only one dropped pass (in week one).

Testing always matters at this position but he looks plenty quick enough. You might be able to argue you want to see a little more explosion on his release and there will be concern that he will get roughed up in the NFL a lot more than we’re seeing here. Can he handle that?

At the moment though, he is listed as WR1 on my early horizontal board ahead of USC’s Makai Lemon and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson.

Other quarterback notes

— Garrett Nussmeier fell back into bad habits at the weekend, as LSU slumped to a disappointing defeat to Ole Miss. The Rebels were far better on the day and Nussmeier was given very little in the way of help.

His touchdown pass was very lucky — a red zone throw straight to a defender. The receiver somehow flicked the ball out of his grasp allowing a different receiver to get the rebound. It was a good play by the two receivers, not so much by the quarterback.

He did throw an interception at the start of the second quarter. It was an awful decision and a forced throw into a lot of traffic. It’s the kind of play he needed to kick out of his game this year:

On 2nd and 20 with 7:31 left in the first half he threw another extremely dangerous pick into double coverage that could’ve been picked off. The camera panned to his offensive coordinator in the booth pulling a pained expression.

In fairness to Nussmeier, it’s hard to know what LSU are even trying to do on offense. They had -24 rushing yards in the first half. The O-line stinks. They don’t have the usual plethora of great weapons. The quarterback was better in the second half but then the defense collapsed to enable the Tigers to be outplayed and out-coached.

I’m not sure we’re seeing enough to justify Nussmeier as a first round pick. These are the big games he has to win, be a difference maker and lead — even when the rest of the team is subpar. The bad picks are still there. He’s such a good technical player, makes a lot of NFL-level throws and he’s a better athlete than some realise — but is he a first round quarterback? I’m not convinced.

— Notre Dame’s hammering of Arkansas led to a coaching change but surprisingly, quarterback Taylen Green still played fairly well.

He had a great throw down the seam 30 seconds into the game. Green had a three step drop, no hesitation, showed great velocity in his arm and placed the pass right between three defenders:

Green also had a big run down the right sideline. Aside from that, he had little chance with Notre Dame just embarrassing the Arkansas defense. They led 42-13 at half-time with Jeremiyah Love scoring four times before the break. The tackling was an abomination, as was the effort. Most of Notre Dame’s touchdowns were farcically easy.

Green’s interception was just a hopeful loft into the end zone with five minutes left, trailing 56-13. It was a bad throw but really, it’s almost surprising he was still on the field at that stage. There’s definitely talent here and you can see why the NFL is interested.

— There’s talk that John Mateer could make it back for the game against Texas on October 11th. If that happens, he finishes the season and Oklahoma keep winning, he has an opportunity to be a very high pick. Perhaps even the top pick. His dynamism, playmaking quality, personality, explosive traits and timely similarities to Baker Mayfield could propel him into a range most currently aren’t projecting.

QBR stats

Taylen Green — 87.6
Ty Simpson — 84.2
Dante Moore — 83.0
Fernando Mendoza — 82.1
Carson Beck — 81.9
Sawyer Robertson — 77.9
Garrett Nussmeier — 76.4
Haynes King — 75.5
John Mateer — 75.5
LaNorris Sellers — 66.1
Sam Leavitt — 64.1
Drew Allar — 48.4
Cade Klubnik — 45.0

An example of why the media doesn’t know what to do with this draft class

The Athletic today published a mock draft. You can see it here. I appreciate in some instances writers are obligated to produce these things. Yet if you don’t have enough information and you’re just putting names out there to fill in the gaps, there is no benefit to this. In fact with players likely reading this as it’s an Athletic piece, they’re likely to be deceived by bad info that can influence how they view their future.

There’s so much about the mock that is objectionable. Kadyn Proctor is not a top-10 pick. How he is still being projected in this range given the way he’s played so far this season is incredible. Isaiah World is not a top-10 pick. I haven’t got either graded in the top two rounds currently.

Kenyon Sadiq is listed as a top-15 pick. He’s a talented tight end but he is not a top-15 pick. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game once this season and that was against Oregon State. I really like Domonique Orange but he is in no way, shape or form a top-25 pick. Xavier Chaplin isn’t a first rounder at all and neither is LT Overton. Connor Lew isn’t a first rounder or even the best draft eligible center.

You’re really putting Fernando Mendoza as the #2 pick with the offense he’s playing in after a handful of games? Or keeping LaNorris Sellers at #6 when it’s clear for all to see he needs more time?

And there’s even a continued first round placing for Arch Manning, 28th overall (because I guess you need to still mention him for clicks).

No Dani Dennis-Sutton. No Chris Brazell II.

Let’s just not do this. Draft media would be better served just being honest about this class. It’s very difficult currently to find first rounders. We don’t need to force out bad mock drafts, with names getting by on familiarity and certainly not performance. I don’t want to pile on too much but that’s one of the worst mocks I’ve ever read and it’s OK some years to just hold off for a while. We don’t ‘need’ them on October 2nd.

A final thought

It continues to be such a challenging draft class to analyse, with a bunch of players with potential who simply aren’t delivering at a top level in college. This has been, so far, the most underwhelming year of scouting I’ve done. This doesn’t mean I want the Seahawks to do anything reckless but I am inclined to think a little bit of aggression before the trade deadline would be totally understandable.

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