
This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
The bye week is mercifully over. The Seahawks have had twelve days to rest, review their play calling and assess their roster needs. We will finally see the beginnings of this mid-season break.
They face a battered and weary Commanders team, themselves badly needing a bye week that is still weeks away. They started out as a respectable 3-2 team but are currently in a three-game losing streak, doomed by a tough schedule, an inordinate number of injuries to their top players (particularly on offense) and a defense that has been exposed as one of the NFL’s worst. At 3-5, they currently hold the #13 spot in the NFC, and three teams that have beaten them this year stand between them and a Wildcard spot. And they’ll have to claw their way back into the picture without the regularly insane catches of Terry McLaurin.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have returned Devin Witherspoon and Derrick Hall to the defense plus Fullback/Battering Ram Robbie Ouzts to the offense. While key defender Julian Love has been officially shelved for at least four games with an injury, it is fair to say this is the healthiest their defense has been so far this season.
Notable is the fact that this will be the first game with Witherspoon and versatile weapon Nick Emmanwori on the field at the same time since the first few minutes of Week One.
This is a game where the Seahawks match up exceedingly well against their opponent.
On offense, their passing attack is #1 in the NFL with 8.3 net yards per attempt. The Commanders are one of the NFL’s worst teams defending the pass, coming in at #30 with 7.2. They should not have much trouble moving the ball on this team.
On defense, they are #1 in the NFL in defending the run at 3.2 net yards per attempt. Washington’s offense is #4 with 5.2. They rely on the running game as much as any team in the NFL, and the Seahawks have only one 100-yard rushing game conceded on defense, Week One vs San Francisco.
This is a matchup the Seahawks should comfortably win.
If a deep playoff run is truly in their vision, this a game that both sides should play like they have the decided advantages we discussed.
How can they do that?
Play Clean Football
The Seahawks were very clearly the better team in back-to-back eight-point wins against Jacksonville and Houston. But penalties, turnovers, dropped interceptions and bizarre play-calling choices on offense have kept them from enforcing their will and making the game much easier on themselves.
Perfectly mistake-free football is a high bar to set.
That is not what the Seahawks need at this point. They do need to get out of their own way in order to take the next step as a team though.
I have every confidence that the Seahawks identified these weaknesses during the bye week and worked to clean them up. Reviewing their trick play calling, having defensive backs get some extra work on the Juggs machine, and reviewing their situational football work.
Let’s see the results of that work on the field.
The Commanders are one of the most-flagged teams in the NFL, the Seahawks are in the better half. Let the results show that this week.
A double-digit lead in the second half of the game should not be too high an expectation for this game.
Pass To Set the Game Tempo
We know how good the Seahawks’ passing game is. Sam Darnold is decisive, accurate and can have this offense striking like a coiled snake. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an incredible season that has generated Offensive Player of the Year talk.
Missing Cooper Kupp for this game is a setback but should not hamper this team too terribly much. Tory Horton has potential, A.J. Barner has proven to be a back-breaking weapon at key times and Elijah Arroyo is just getting started making noise in the NFL (Do not be surprised if he lined up in WR formations with Barner as a standard in-line option today).
What we need to understand is how truly horrible the Commanders’ pass defense is. As we mentioned above, they are the third-worst team in the NFL in yards-per-pass attempt.
Let me tell, you the more I dug into the numbers, the wider my eyes got.
To wit:
— Bobby Wagner is an ageless wonder and a lock to be a Hall of Famer the moment he is eligible. But teams are exploiting what Seahawks fans already knew about him in his last couple of years in Seattle: He is vulnerable in pass coverage. But 2025 has shown further regression in this area. He is targeted in the passing game very close to the line of scrimmage (2.6 yards avg depth of target), but is conceding a career-worst 12.4 yards per reception. Meaning, he is giving up over 10 yards after the catch, also a career-worst. His game is smarts, positioning and moving toward the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks need to create plays where he is covering Wide Receivers on crossing routes, Running Backs like Ken Walker on dump-offs and Tight Ends like Elijah Arroyo to get him backpedaling where he cannot keep up.
— Safety Quan Martin I can honestly say is the worst starting pass defender in the NFL. He has conceded a whopping 500 yards in the passing game, worst in the NFL. But it is so much worse than that. He is the #72 most-targeted defender in the passing game. Which means he is conceding unheard-of yards per catch. His 20.8 yards would qualify him as the second-highest number for a starter in the NFL in the last five seasons. The worst? Quan Martin last year. Other defenders are getting beat on completions but Martin is conceding a 75% completion rate and a 137.5 QB rating when targeted.
— Overall, there is not one specific position they are having a problem defending in the passing game. They are #27 in defending Wide Receivers, #29 in defending Tight Ends and #30 in defending Running Backs in the passing game. Their blitzing and pressure rates are just outside the top-10, so they are doing well there. But it is a boom or bust proposition, as they are conceding a 112 QB Rating when they blitz and have zero interceptions. So, their back end and front end are not aligned at all.
— Perhaps worst of all, when they are trailing in the game, their ability to defend the pass collapses. They are conceding (deep breath) a 123 QB Rating (36% worse than when tied or leading), 9.5 yards per reception (27% worse), and are conceding almost the same amount of first downs. On offense? Their play mix goes from 52/48 run/pass when tied or leading all the way down to 40/60 and their effectiveness drops from 6.6 yards per play to 5.13. The Quarterback is also under considerably more pressure.
I do not think I can spell out the game plan any better than that. Pass to control the scoreboard. Get your tempo in place and supplement it with the running game, and let the Commanders chase the game. They are flat out terrible at it.
Robbie Ouzts is back and no doubt the team has studied and discussed heavily their lack of effectiveness in the run game. I completely agree that an improved run game is necessary for the stretch run. But for today – let the passing game carry the load, and that will give them breathing room later in the game to try out some of their run game enhancements.
Keep The Commanders’ Running Game in Check
Washington is one of the best running teams in the NFL. Kliff Kingsbury has the team trying all kinds of formations and sets to be effective in this area.
However, in their three losses the Commanders have been markedly worse at running the football, and it is not where the obvious answer lies – Jayden Daniels dealing with leg injuries and not playing.
No, Marcus Mariota has been blossoming as a Quarterback runner and more than adequately filling in while Daniels has healed.
Their Running Backs have dropped off a cliff.
Have a look at Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s run game charting this year. He started out with a burst, surprising the NFL as a great rookie option and making Brian Robinson Jr expendable.
Look at his last three games though. He has been confined to running in between the tackles and defenses have been bottling him up very effectively. It is a combination of both the plays called on offense and the defense effectively setting the edge and having safeties and cornerbacks be willing and able tacklers on the perimeter of the defense.
This has put more pressure on the Quarterback to provide a larger share of the offense, at the same time putting down-and-distance stress on them. And if they are behind on the scoreboard… you get the idea.
Their formula has stopped working the last three weeks and it has really hurt them. Their aging defense is on the field more often, the defense can key on the Quarterback more and they are at a strong disadvantage when they get in that position.
As for keeping Jayden Daniels in check in the running game? I would suggest that Nick Emmanwori and Devon Witherspoon will likely take turns being a lane-clogging presence that steps up and uses their speed to take the angles away from Daniels when he scrambles. Coming off a hamstring injury, Daniels may not be as effective with his legs and will need to rely on short-game passing and his running backs to carry more of the offense.
If the Seahawks can do what they have normally done with a minimum of mistakes, it could be a very long day for the Commanders on both sides of the ball.