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I’m publishing an updated Horizontal Board today with accompanying notes. Things will be impacted in the next few weeks by the Senior Bowl. I’ve also created a list of players at the end of the piece who are either not turning pro or have transferred to stay in college.

Horizontal board

This is how I am currently grading individual players. Those marked in red either have current injuries or reported injury concerns/injury history. Those marked in purple have reported character related issues that would require investigation by a team.

Class breakdown by numbers

Legit first round prospects — 5
Fringe R1 (prospects I’d be prepared to take in round one) — 10
Second round grades — 13
Players with grades in the first three rounds — 80

Position-by-position breakdowns

Quarterbacks

I think it’d be a mistake for Oregon’s Dante Moore to declare. The game against Indiana showed he needs more playing experience. Plus, is that really the way you want to end your college career? He will undoubtedly be well compensated for playing another season of college football. I hope the people advising him are focusing on what gives him the best chance to have a long and successful pro career and not what’s best to ‘game’ the draft and take advantage of a weak class.

Should Moore remain at Oregon (edit — he has chosen to stay in school), Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is going to be the #1 overall pick. He deserves a lot of respect for his 2025 season. However, I don’t personally believe he deserves a first round grade, let alone going first overall.

Physically he is good not great — both in terms of arm talent and improv. He doesn’t operate under center and benefits a lot from a scheme that is about as well coached as you’ll ever see in college football. The abundance of back-shoulder throws won’t be readily there at the next level and he will need to challenge more into tight windows over the middle and deliver downfield. His footwork also needs cleaning up after his initial read isn’t open.

Before the Oregon game he only ranked 13th for EPA in college football — which speaks to the Indiana environment meshing with his talent and consistency. I think the challenge for the Raiders, if they select him, will be to create a dynamic and brilliant offensive scheme. Mendoza is not a physical marvel waiting to take the league by storm (although his accuracy, poise and the way he’s elevated Indiana this year all should be noted).

Vegas need an inspired offensive-minded Head Coach to lead from the front and set out a clearly defined system. If they do this, Mendoza can thrive within structure and they’ll make the most out of the positive aspects he delivers — including his obvious dedication to his craft.  He is not a rare franchise saviour who can revolutionise a franchise with individual brilliance though.

If Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) fails in his court case to gain another year of eligibility, I think he could be a fascinating prospect. He made plays out of structure for Ole Miss that were very interesting.

There isn’t a quarterback in this class I would draft in round one. If I were a team needing to select a quarterback, I would be pitching to the owner why we had to wait and would offer veteran solutions for the short term. Some owners won’t want to hear that, of course.

I think there’s a chance Ty Simpson (Alabama) will find a home in the top-40 — potentially to a team like Minnesota who should be dipping back into the market. That feels like a good scheme fit. I would also be interested in Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and Taylen Green (Arkansas) if they stick on the board. They are two players with obvious plus talent who for different reasons did not have the finish to 2025 they would’ve hoped for. There could be value in taking a shot on both with a low-risk pick later on.

Running backs

The position is led by Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love — a potential top-five pick with the potential to be the next dynamic runner in the NFL to go along with the James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane type backs.

The more I’ve watched of the class though I just don’t think there’s a ton of value to be had early on. I really enjoyed watching Emmett Johnson (Nebraska) and Mike Washington Jr (Arkansas) but I think you have to cap their value at round three and believe they could be available later than that.

Johnson doesn’t have a majorly explosive looking lower half. His speed is good but he doesn’t have a second gear when he breaks free. He’s not a short-yardage power back. He’s agile and quick and makes plays in the passing game but he’s a 7.5/10 talent in college and probably a 5.5/10 at the next level.

Washington Jr collected yards after contact during his best spell of 2025 but his impact was limited by how often Arkansas had to play from behind. He dodges and weaves through tackles but doesn’t possess game-changing long-speed. He reminds me of Knile Davis, a third round pick from the same school in 2013.

Nicholas Singleton (Penn State) has bags of physical potential but his final year in college was a massive disappointment. You might be able to find a diamond here if you believe he has a lot more to offer. I think he does.

If you’re in the market for a really good running back next year, there’s one solution if you’re not in position to get Love early in round one. Call the Dolphins about Achane. I don’t think people realise just how good he is. A lot of people scoffed at a second round price tag at the trade deadline. With hindsight — I think a good team should’ve pulled the trigger:

Wide receivers

I think USC’s Makai Lemon will be the first receiver drafted and he should probably send Jaxon Smith-Njigba a bottle of Châteauneuf-du-Pape when it happens. Lemon has a very similar frame and playing style. With JSN’s excellent year fresh in the minds of GM’s, don’t expect Lemon to last into the 20’s.

He’s savvy with his routes and can get open in both the short-game and downfield. He adjusts to the ball in the air superbly and his ball-tracking is top tier. He shows strong and consistent hands paired with excellent focus and technique. He’s not electric or sudden but he’s shifty and finds ways to get open. I really like him.

Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) won’t be too far behind, provided he passes all medical checks. His injury history will be a concern (14 missed games out of 38 for ASU). However, he’s such a natural receiver that there’s every chance he will also find a home within the top-20.

Tyson wins a lot of contested catches and can jump up to go and get the ball. He did a bit of everything in college — slot, outside, screens. He shows good hands, he turned awkward and off-target throws into completions and he has a subtle separation talent to make up for a lack of blazing quickness. His ball-tracking is good and it’s easy to imagine him making plays in the league.

Carnell Tate (Ohio State) saw his season tail off at the end but he too should go reasonably quickly. He has great body control, he catches the ball away from his body, he can hang in the air to make catches and his ball-tracking is also excellent. He lines up almost exclusively outside and his speed is a question mark.

Lemon, Tyson and Tate all have a very reasonable chance to become solid NFL starters.

After that there’s some depth but I sense we might end up seeing players pushed way above their grading. I’m struggling with the first round buzz Washington’s Denzel Boston is getting. To me he feels like a useful bigger target on slants and in the red zone but someone who will struggle to separate at the next level and doesn’t have the vertical leaping ability to win-out.

Zachariah Branch (Georgia) is a screen/pass into the flat specialist used basically as a ‘kick-returner’ on offense, getting the ball into his hands and trying to get him to run through traffic. He has an explosive lower half and he can sprint away from defenders in space but he wasn’t used as a conventional receiver and his tendency to body catch highlights this. Again, it’s hard to see some of the round one buzz here.

KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) could go in round one due to his ability to separate and make big plays — but that’s not certain. I’m hoping Evan Stewart returns to Oregon after missing the 2025 season with a serious injury.

Tight end

After a strong top of the draft a year ago, this is the opposite. Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq is regularly assumed to be a very high pick but what is this based on? Testing. He’s expected to be one of the big winners at the combine. His performance on the field for Oregon was nothing to write home about. Did you feel his presence against Texas Tech or Indiana? He only had four games this year with +50 yards.

He’s talking about potentially going back to school. I think he should. A lot more development is needed here and I’d have a hard time taking him early believing his production is suddenly going to explode at the next level. I’d describe his blocking as ‘OK’. He’s a major upside project.

Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt) feels like someone who is more likely to come in and contribute quickly but he will need to test well to show off his upside to warrant going in round two. I’m glad the Seahawks took the opportunity to draft Elijah Arroyo a year ago and believe in time he will prove to be an inspired pick. There are no truly exciting solutions as part of this draft class.

Offensive line

Spencer Fano (Utah) and Francis Mauigoa (Miami) should both go very early. They are highly aggressive, tone-setting, consistent arse kickers. Both might have to kick inside to guard, however.

The more I watched of Caleb Lomu (Utah) I think he might go quite early too. There’s such a dearth of well sized, athletic left tackles in this draft and Lomu could be elevated based on upside. He could go in the top-20.

I’ve really battled with Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) and I studied a bunch of his tape again recently. I think I like him more than I did prior to that work. I still have real reservations about his size/weight and how that’d need to be controlled. However — he ticks a few boxes. His zone-blocking is surprisingly effective. He does a great job moving into space and finding blocks at the second level. He can smother and dominate when blocking square-on. He bullies opponents 1v1 in a wrestling match. He’s shown evidence of passing off defenders to handle stunts. He’s a finisher and a people mover. He also has rare speed/mobility for his frame — although that works best moving forwards and not protecting the edge at tackle.

There is a level of uniqueness to Proctor you don’t see with many players and in a draft like this, I’d probably roll the dice. If you have the luxury of drafting him to kick inside to guard, even better. I think he could be really good there. I’m not sure I’d trust him defending the edge against speed at the next level.

I think Brian Parker (Duke) might go earlier than people realise. He’s an excellent zone blocker and moves people off the ball. He’s extremely physical. He shows good technique with the ability to get his hands inside to control blocks. He’s very mobile and capable of progressing to the second level. His success rate landing on second-level blocks is impressive and he uses forceful hands to jolt defenders off balance with violence.

There are examples on tape of him springing big run plays due to his key blocking
Duke seemed to funnel their run game to his side. I think he has a bright future and is worthy of top-45 talk.

Gennings Dunker (Iowa) and Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon) also provide quality zone-blocking tape and finishing ability. Dunker, like Parker, will project to move inside from tackle. I wonder if we could see a major run on offensive linemen simply because there are players here with some starting ability and you can’t say that in other areas of this class.

Later round options that have caught my eye include Beau Stephens (Iowa) and Pat Coogan (Indiana). Stephens is another really good zone-blocker. He sinks his hips well to anchor, is adept at getting on the move and reaching up to the second level. He has the brawling mentality you expect from an Iowa lineman. There are examples on tape of him turning defenders and finishing his blocks to the turf. He has a willingness to combo block but some technical tweaks are needed to execute at a higher level. I’d prefer to see a better initial punch into the chest of opponents. Coogan excelled against Oregon and while his upside is limited — he’s going to give everything on every down. There’s evidence of good zone-blocking on tape.

I studied newly declared Monroe Freeling (Georgia) today before writing this piece. He’s a pure pass-pro tackle and not a great run blocker. His height (6-7) means he struggles with leverage and he has a high centre of gravity. He gets beat through the chest because he can’t sink and anchor well enough. He can also get out over his toes when he gets on the move — lunging at blocks. There’s enough athleticism to seal off the edge with his footwork and his foot-speed on the kick-step is a positive. He showed he can contain Texas’ Colin Simmons with his kick-step and peppering hands. Yet his technique needs major work — he too often lunges at EDGE defenders with his arms over-extended meaning he’ll be so easy to counter off. He also loses all balance and it hinders his base.

He’s a project with upside but there’s a lot of work needed and he’s not helping you set a tone up front. I think he could go in round two because teams are always looking for athletic tackles.

EDGE

I’m really struggling to understand the first round buzz with some of these players. David Bailey (Texas Tech) has taken the form of ‘first round lock’ in the media but I just found his tape underwhelming. Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) is going to get blasted against the run at the next level. Romello Height (Texas Tech) is a rotational rusher and R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma) plays with a lot of intensity and motor but as with many defensive ends/EDGE rushers in this class, he just doesn’t have the measurables.

I have Joshua Josephs (Tennessee) currently graded as my top EDGE after reviewing tape. He looks the part with great arm length and a long, lean frame. He shows evidence of speed-to-power. He works nicely to disengage and his arm/over can be effective to win 1v1. He seems to prefer to sprint into contact rather than the preferred bend/straighten which isn’t ideal but Josephs offers a physical playing style and the motor never stops. His run discipline is evident on tape. I think he’s someone who could realistically start and play some early downs without necessarily being a star player.

This isn’t a class where I’d be looking for solutions if I wanted to add an impact rusher. I think you all know by now what I would do if that was a desired off-season aim.

Defensive end

Keldric Faulk (Auburn) is one of several players with enticing physical tools who didn’t have a great 2025 season — yet within this class he could/should be a top-15 pick because those teams at the top will need to take someone. After that, I think Ohio State’s Kenyatta Jackson (if he turns pro) has some intriguing upside, perhaps enough to tempt a team to take him in the top-40.

I’ve been pretty consistent since September in saying I think Rueben Bain Jr (Miami) has been overrated by the media and fans on Twitter. Short-armed players with his frame and playing style don’t go early in round one.

He has 30 inch arms at 270lbs with a stocky 6-3 frame — that’s difficult to place in a NFL context. Is he an inside/out rusher? Not many players with his body type succeed. His game is based on power and while he does show occasional bend for his size he just doesn’t seem all that twitchy. He had a four game stretch where he missed 21.3% of his tackles in 2025 and he just reminds me of those AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Myles Murphy types who go earlier than they should. He has this tendency at Miami to be impactful one week and then have a couple of games where you barely notice he’s playing. The limitations in this class could mean he still finds a home in round one but it’s not the banker many would have you believe.

I’m also not sure why his older team-mate, Akheem Mesidor, who has an injury history, is being projected in round one. I thought his tape was pretty average personally.

There’s not a lot of excitement to be had here. This isn’t a position in the draft I’d be chasing.

Defensive tackle

Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald is one of the best six players in the draft. His run-defense and ability to control double-teams, anchor down, disengage and just generally be a load in the middle of the defense are not typical. On top of that, he has great size (325lbs) and carries his weight well. He’s also far more athletic than people give him credit for — there’s untapped pass-rush ability here. I think he’s potentially another Derrick Brown.

Peter Woods (Clemson) had a very disappointing season but is expected to run a 4.8 at +300lbs so teams may feel obliged to take him early, knowing his 2024 tape was so much better than what we saw in 2025. Caleb Banks (Florida) had injury problems all year but there simply aren’t many humans with his incredible size, length and ability to disrupt. If he passes medical checks he will go early.

Domonique Orange (Iowa State) is a big nose tackle type with plus athleticism and disruptive qualities. I think he’d be a very solid day two pick. Darrell Jackson Jr (Florida State) is another player who just jumps off the screen thanks to his size, motor, aggression and length. He plays with genuine violence to throw off blocks with disdain. His one-arm bull rush is interesting and effective. At the very least he can provide some early-down run defense value. In my notes I wrote ‘has an AFC North vibe to him’.

I’m not buying the sudden ‘Lee Hunter (Texas Tech) in round one’ talk either. His frame is unappealing and apologies for the crude comparison — he’s built like an orange. I’m not convinced he’ll test well. He does have surprising shiftiness and an ability to dodge blocks to penetrate. He can also sift down the line to get a feel for the blocks then slip through gaps. His arm/over is competent but he’s not a bully vs the run and doesn’t take the game to the opponent with violent hands.

Linebacker

Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is going to be a very high pick as a hybrid EDGE/LB who could develop into another Abdul Carter type player. He plays with a thunderous ferocity, getting under the pads of bigger linemen and somehow stacking/disengaging. He delivers a jolting punch which has to be seen to be believed at his size. He displaces linemen to throw them off balance which again, at his size, is remarkable.

He’s a tremendous run defender because of his ability to disengage and/or keep his frame clean. There’s evidence on tape of throwing off offensive tackles to explode into the backfield. As a linebacker he plays with fantastic range and he looks like a sudden athlete. He’s very willing to fill gaps and put a hat on a hat. He’s light on his feet and will read/react to make plays. His pursuit speed is excellent. That said, he had quiet games in the BIG-10 Championship and Ohio State’s playoff exit to Miami.

CJ Allen (Georgia) has grown on me. He’s a classic downhill linebacker who can explode to attack the LOS and expose gap opportunities with his quickness. His closing speed when running forward is excellent. He reads the eyes of the QB and remains patient when playing read/react. He has good stalking speed when he runs to the sideline.

He likes to keep everything in front of him and doesn’t look that comfortable going backwards. He’s not the best at reacting to play-action and he could be exposed when forced into coverage situations. His tackles pack a punch and he’ll help set a stone. His lateral movements (sidesteps) are solid but not the most sudden or free. He doesn’t miss many tackles. There’s a little bit of stiffness/tightness with his movements.

I think he has the makings of a solid starter.

I’m not sure why Sonny Styles (Ohio State) is suddenly being projected as a top-20 lock everywhere. Is it because of testing? The former safety is a long, lean linebacker but he doesn’t have a typical build for the position. You can see his former DB background in the way he drops with ease. Yet he lacks take-on power when attacking the LOS, he doesn’t always fly to the ball carrier and he can overcommit and get washed out. There’s some over-eagerness at times that means he runs into blocks and it costs him. You can see tight ends having success in the blocking game against him too.

I like linebackers with speed, range and mobility but to me Styles feels like a project who warrants far more restraint in terms of taking a shot than the top-20. For me he’s a day-two player.

One player I loved watching is Kyle Louis (Pittsburgh). He’s undersized and I’m not sure he’s going to test well enough to compensate for that — however, he gives absolutely everything in every game and he’s said to be an absolute work-horse off the field in terms of preparation and dedication. Keep an eye on him during the Senior Bowl.

Cornerback

Clemson’s Avieon Terrell covers well running across the field and he’s sticky downfield with strong recover ability. For me he has the most potential to be a plus starter — although his lack of size looks an issue at times. I did like the way he played the run and his brother has obviously had success in the league. There’s a natural classiness to his play which speaks to those bloodlines. He looks like a NFL player on tape.

Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) has a lot of snaps where he’s face-guarding but he’s well built and can stick in coverage downfield. He’s a ball of clay to develop into a rounded CB1. There are injury checks to take place after he missed 2025 but he sticks in the hip-pocket in man and can trace steps downfield with ease. He looks the part but against the top opponents (Jeremiah Smith & Ryan Williams) he did give up some plays.

Mansoor Delane (LSU) is intelligent, makes plays on the ball and shows a degree of natural talent and flair for the position. The concern is his long-speed and testing — and whether limitations here could be an issue at the next level.

Safety

Ohio state’s Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the draft, possibly the best. Testing expectations are not sky-high and with his low positional value he might last a bit longer on draft day than he should (see: Kyle Hamilton). He is probably the safest bet in the class to hit on a good starter.

Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman is being slept on — he is expected to test brilliantly and he has good size too. His range as a deep-cover safety is impressive and he can be a chess piece at the next level. Keep an eye on Arizona’s Genesis Smith too.

Overall assessment

There’s still time for things to change but right now I think it’s pretty clear what this class is (or isn’t). There’s a distinct lack of obvious blue-chippers at the top of round one. You are unlikely to find players from #15 onwards with first round grades, at least in my view. You will badly struggle to get value in round two.

I think we’ll see teams resort to attacking the trenches positions, receiver and cornerback early — feeling like these are the areas you might as well plunder if the grading value isn’t up to par.

I continue to think we’ll see a rich appetite for teams picking later in each round to attack the veteran trade market. The big question will be — with a weak draft class in 2026 — how reasonable are selling teams going to be to make deals? And are you going to have to dig into your 2027 resources to sweeten certain deals?

Players not turning pro

Dante Moore (QB, Oregon)
LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina)
A’Mauri Washington (DT, Oregon)
Matayo Uiagalelei (DE, Oregon)
Kelley Jones (CB, Mississippi State)
Anthony Smith (DE, Minnesota)
Keon Sabb (S, Alabama)
Ryan Baer (T, Pittsburgh)
Bray Hubbard (S, Alabama)
Quincy Rhodes (DE, Arkansas)
Mark Fletcher Jr (RB, Miami)
Bear Alexander (DT, Oregon)
Jayden Maiava (QB, USC)
Darian Mensah (QB, Duke)
Nyck Harbor (WR, South Carolina)
Whit Weeks (LB, LSU)
Trevor Goosby (T, Texas)
Lucas Carneiro (K, Ole Miss)

Players transferring

Sam Leavitt (QB, LSU) transferred from Arizona State
Brendan Sorsby (QB, Texas Tech) transferred from Cincinnati
Byrum Brown (QB, Auburn) transferred from USF
Josh Hoover (QB, Indiana) transferred from TCU
John Henry Daley (DE, Michigan) transferred from Utah
Raleek Brown (RB, Texas) transferred from Arizona State
Xavier Chaplin (T, Florida State) transferred from Auburn
Billy Edwards Jr (QB, North Carolina) transferred from Wisconsin
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State) transferred from North Texas
Cade Uluave (LB, portal) —transferring from California
Preston Zachman (S, Indiana) transferred from Wisconsin
Jaden Craig (QB, TCU) transferred from Harvard
Earl Little Jr (S, Ohio State) transferred from Florida State
Justice Haynes (RB, portal) transferring from Michigan
Dylan Raiola (QB, Oregon) transferred from Nebraska
AJ Harris (CB, Indiana) transferred from Penn State

Notable prospects eligible for 2027

Colin Simmons (EDGE, Texas)
Dylan Stewart (EDGE, South Carolina)
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Leonard Moore (CB, Notre Dame)
Arch Manning (QB, Texas)
LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina)
CJ Bailey (QB, NC State)
Nico Iamaleava (QB, UCLA)
Kewan Lacy (RB, Ole Miss)

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Rams @ Panthers

A lot of things had to go Carolina’s way to beat the Rams in week 13. Matthew Stafford turned the ball over three times, including a pick-six. The Panthers converted two huge fourth downs — both for touchdowns. A perfect storm of events was needed for Carolina to win by three points.

It’s hard to imagine it unfolds this way again. The Panthers looked really bad in their final two games. Stafford and Sean McVay won’t lose to this team twice and it could be comfortable this time.

Verdict: Rams win

Packers @ Bears

Green Bay should’ve beaten the Bears twice in the regular season. If it wasn’t for a botched onside kick they would’ve comfortably won at Soldier Field in week 16. That was despite losing Jordan Love to injury, Micah Parsons already being out with his knee injury and Josh Jacobs looking like he was about 5% healthy.

Credit to the Bears for a miraculous turnaround. That was the story of their season really — so many late, crazy wins. It’s fair to wonder if the magic is running out. They’re on the right track with Ben Johnson and there’ll be no shame in being one-and-done in the playoffs this season.

I think Green Bay will win a close one, sending them to Lumen Field in the Divisional Round.

Verdict: Packers win

Bills @ Jaguars

The Jaguars finished the season playing as well as any team in the NFL. Liam Coen has turned Trevor Lawrence into a highly productive quarterback who is finally delivering on his potential. It remains to be seen if they can win the big playoff games coming up but they are the AFC’s momentum team (as they showed by comfortably beating Denver at Mile High).

The Bills haven’t felt right all year. Josh Allen remains a top player and he could will his team to victory on his own. Yet the defense isn’t very good and that’ll make life tough if Lawrence and Coen get things rolling.

Defeat would call into question Sean McDermott’s future as Head Coach and I think that will be the big talking point after Wildcard Weekend.

Verdict: Jaguars win

49ers @ Eagles

I think there’s some recency bias over the 49ers after the way their week 18 game unfolded. The Seahawks beat them up but prior to that they’ve been an electric force on offense. They averaged 42.3 points in their three games before losing to Seattle. Extend that out to their eight games prior and they averaged 34.5 PPG.

There’s an assumption they’ll go to Philly and play exactly like they did in week 18 but I’d expect Kyle Shanahan to get his offense back on track.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to work out the Eagles. They recently had a three-game losing streak (Cowboys, Bears, Chargers) and they finished the regular season with a 3-4 record in their last seven games.

It’s not that long ago that Eagles fans were booing their team against the Bears and I’ve just got a feeling Shanahan and San Francisco will pull this off. They won 12 games for a reason.

Verdict: 49ers win

Chargers @ Patriots

New England’s strength of schedule this year was .391 — by far the easiest in the NFL. There’s no doubting they’ve had an unexpectedly great year and Mike Vrabel has had an amazing impact. Are they good enough to go on a playoff run though? I’m not sure.

I don’t trust the Chargers though. They’ve too many injured players and won’t be at their potent best. Justin Herbert can go toe-to-toe with Drake Maye and this could be quite an entertaining game. Plus, Jim Harbaugh is typically made for these kind of occasions.

Nevertheless, I think the Patriots escape with a close win in a back-and-forth game. I’m not sure they’ll make it much further after though.

Verdict: Patriots win

Texans @ Steelers

The Steelers aren’t very good. They look old, they don’t have difference making coaching and they needed a lot of fortune to get by the Ravens last week. They feel like a team clinging desperately to relevancy.

The Texans, meanwhile, have been a tour de force for the last few weeks. Their defense has been an absolute monster and that could be the difference here. I can’t imagine Aaron Rodgers beating them. The Steelers will need a bit of magic or a Houston implosion to come through.

I don’t see either happening, with the Texans marching on and the questions over Mike Tomlin’s future beginning.

Verdict: Texans win

Divisional Round games

Packers @ Seahawks

49ers @ Rams

Texans @ Broncos

Jaguars @ Patriots

Klint Kubiak is a man in demand.

Any team with a Head Coaching vacancy appears to want to talk to him. There’s an increasing chance he will get an opportunity to take the next step in his career.

I know there’s been a fairly regular conversation, including on the latest Seahawks Collective, about whether he’d want to move again.

I think there’s no question he will be.

The difference in salary between an offensive coordinator and a Head Coach is significant. Kubiak is not close to earning the bizarre $6m Chip Kelly received from the Raiders last year.

It’s believed Kellen Moore, when he was the Eagles OC in 2024, was given $2.5m a year — and that was at the top end of the salary scale.

Kubiak didn’t appear to have a ton of options after leaving New Orleans a year ago and there didn’t appear to be a bidding war for his services. It’s realistic to think that $2.5m is the maximum he’s on — with the likelihood he’ll be on less. The average salary for an offensive coordinator in 2022 was reported to be $1m.

Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson — the two in-demand coaching candidates a year ago — ended up getting deals worth $14m and $13m a year respectively. Aaron Glenn got $12m from the Jets, with Liam Coen getting $10m from the Jaguars.

The chances are Kubiak could match Coen’s salary at the very least. That would constitute a massive pay increase. Not to mention, if interest is high in his services, a bidding war could emerge. Glenn got $12m from the Jets in part because the Saints wanted him too.

I think for Kubiak the grind of churning through different jobs in different cities has all been a means to an end — chasing the dream to be a Head Coach. His family history and trajectory would point to that. He may never be more in-demand than he is now given Seattle’s 14-win season. Taking a top job would enable him to potentially put down some long-term roots, not have to move for the next few years and earn a fortune for the privilege.

The interest in him also speaks to the NFL’s continued preference to target offensive-minded coaches. There’s a lot more buzz, it seems, around Kubiak than there is around Robert Saleh, Chris Shula or Jesse Minter.

With eight vacancies now open, and the potential for more after the Wild Card weekend, the chances of Seattle needing to replace Kubiak are growing.

So who could be an option to replace him?

The first thing to note is there are a couple of things working in Seattle’s favour. Any offensive coach is going to get to control that side of the ball. They’d be coming to a winning team who just managed to position the previous OC to get a Head Coaching job.

They might go for continuity and appoint from within. That could be more likely if they get to the Super Bowl because some attractive external candidates will be appointed by February.

Quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko was given the chance to call plays during the Green Bay pre-season game. It didn’t go particularly well — but it’d be harsh to base a full assessment of his credentials on that experience. I don’t think hiring someone without previous play-calling experience would be a savvy move — but they might have no choice.

Jake Peetz has been on the team for three seasons now as passing game coordinator. It’s interesting that he was never considered for the OC role a year ago, so either he or the team (or both) might not see that as an option. He spent one year as an OC in college at LSU and it might not have suited him.

Justin Outten had one year as Denver’s offensive coordinator under Nathaniel Hackett and did get some play-calling opportunities with the Broncos. Is that enough experience to justify getting the Seahawks gig? Possibly. Out of these three internal names he might be the best option.

One thing the next OC might need is contacts. Janocko is basically Kubiak’s guy, while John Benton the O-line coach and Rick Dennison the run-game co-ordinator have also followed him around. The chances are all would support his move to take on a top job. It’s also possible Kubiak would appoint Outten as OC, if he wanted someone familiar who wouldn’t need to call plays. Basically, Seattle’s next OC might need to replace multiple members of staff.

Externally there would be a few options — but it would depend on who’s available at the time the Seahawks were making an appointment.

Mike McDaniel would be a great option given his history in the Shanahan system. It would be a seamless transition you’d think — and his play-calling and Head Coaching experience would make him a perfect fit to lead Seattle’s offense.

However, following his firing by the Dolphins, he will be seen as a premier OC candidate for defensive-minded Head Coaches. He’s extremely close to Dan Quinn and is already being connected to the Commanders opening. He could even get an immediate second shot as a Head Coach himself, given the sparse offensive options on the market.

Mike Kafka was admired enough by the Seahawks to be interviewed to replace Pete Carroll. There was also seemingly interest in hiring him to be the OC a year ago. I’m not sure a difficult stint as Giants Head Coach, in an impossible situation, will change that appreciation for his ability. He could be a leading candidate and he now has some play-calling and leadership experience.

Kafka could, though, be an option for the Chiefs — who appear set to move on from Matt Nagy whether he gets a new job or not. Kafka was well liked in Kansas City before moving to New York.

There’s always a chance of snatching a highly rated OC who isn’t calling plays. I’m not sure on the exact rules — but if a coordinator is a non-play-calling coach, I believe you can target them to be the main man. That could bring Grant Udinski into play, who was interviewed by the Seahawks a year ago. He’s had a very successful year in Jacksonville but doesn’t call the plays.

Klay Kubiak could be another option to replace his brother. He doesn’t call the plays in San Francisco, obviously. Although staying attached to Kyle Shanahan will present him with Head Coaching opportunities probably from next year, so he likely won’t feel obliged to move to a NFC West rival.

Davis Webb has been touted as a Head Coach in waiting and is getting interviews in this cycle. He is Denver’s passing-game co-ordinator. In order to boost his chances of a Head Coaching gig in the future, would he take on an OC job in 2026?

Todd Monken and Mike Macdonald will know each other from their time in Baltimore. It’s possible Monken will go wherever John Harbaugh goes next but should that not be the case, he has experience leading an offense. The Ravens had the #11 ranked offense this year per DVOA, one place behind Kubiak’s Seahawks, despite having a bunch of injury issues at quarterback.

If you want to stick to the Shanahan/McVay DNA and take a chance on an up-and-comer — Nathan Scheelhaase is said to be highly rated in LA. He is the Rams’ passing-game co-ordinator.

I’m not sure Brian Daboll is necessarily a personality fit for this franchise — but he did do an excellent job as Buffalo’s OC working with Josh Allen. He also helped Jaxson Dart transition to the NFL and he has extensive play-calling experience. There’s talk of him potentially pairing with Brian Flores in Las Vegas.

Then there’s Kevin Stefanski, who appears set to get an immediate second chance as a Head Coach. However, there’s something to consider here. Stefanski has worked for one basket-case franchise in the Cleveland Browns. His next chance at a Head Coach will be his last. He, more than anyone, needs to choose carefully.

He appears to want the Giants job — but they seem particularly enamoured with John Harbaugh. If he misses out and the Ravens and Falcons go in a different direction, is he going to want to rush to Arizona, Vegas, Tennessee or Miami?

It might be in his interests to take a coordinator job and bide his time — especially if the pay-off from the Browns keeps him compensated at a high level. He only signed a new contract in Cleveland in 2024 so he will likely be receiving money for the next year or two. That would mean he won’t miss out on earning a Head Coach’s salary while he waits to see what the options are in 2027.

That might be a best case scenario for the Seahawks. After all, Gary Kubiak was Stefanski’s coaching mentor. Yet at the moment the odds are stacked against him being available. If Stephen Ross can finally deliver a Harbaugh brother to coach the Dolphins, Stefanski will probably get the Giants job within minutes.

Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t feel like a fit given his desire to live in the shot-gun.

Let’s also remember that the Seahawks are willing to think outside of the box — as they did with Ryan Grubb and by interviewing Hank Fraley a year ago.

It’s a nice problem to have, your coaches being in demand. Hopefully they are formulating a plan though in case they do lose Kubiak after, hopefully, an extended playoff run. They don’t want to be left in a situation again like 2024 — where the appointment of Macdonald was so late in the process they had to settle for Grubb with so few options available. That turned out to be a disaster.

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With the typical spate of firings taking place after the NFL regular season concludes, there’s a chance the Seahawks could be left looking for an offensive coordinator for the third year in a row.

There are six vacancies currently — the Giants, Titans, Falcons, Raiders, Browns and Cardinals. It’s unclear if there could be more, with slight questions over John Harbaugh’s future in Baltimore.

The Falcons have reportedly already requested an interview with Klint Kubiak. It’s not a surprise. Arthur Blank has experienced a lot of average-to-bad football over the years. His team, however, went to a Super Bowl when Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator.

So what are the chances of Kubiak being one-and-done in Seattle?

NFL teams with young quarterbacks tend to want to pair them with play-calling Head Coaches for obvious reasons.

It stands to reason that the Giants (Jaxson Dart), Titans (Cam Ward) and Falcons (Michael Penix Jr) might want to create a long term HC/QB partnership. With the Raiders picking first overall and destined to draft either Dante Moore or Fernando Mendoza with the top pick, they will also surely consider such an arrangement.

It’s also common for teams to do the opposite of what they’ve done before. For example, will the Cardinals now look for an offensive identity after firing the defensive-minded Jonathan Gannon? The Titans appear keen to go for experience after previously hiring first-timer Brian Callahan.

It’s a deeper pool of defensive coaches this year (Jeff Hafley, Vance Joseph, Brian Flores, Chris Shula, Jesse Minter, Robert Saleh) but I wouldn’t rule out teams with a QB-led focus primarily sticking to offensive candidates.

Kevin Stefanski being fired by the Browns probably helps if you’re minded to root for Kubiak to stay in Seattle.

He’s already getting interest, reportedly, from the Giants, Titans and Falcons. He ticks multiple boxes as someone with experience, he’s offensive-minded and he’s enjoyed personal success (two-time NFL coach of the year).

Stefanski is virtually guaranteed to get a Head Coaching job and he’ll probably be able to hand-pick which one he takes.

The problem is the lack of alternatives. Are teams seriously going to give Kliff Kingsbury a second go-around after a disappointing season for the Commanders? Is Joe Brady’s stock high enough in Buffalo after a slight down year for the Bills?

Expect Grant Udinski to emerge as a hot name. He was seen as a wunderkind in Minnesota before taking the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator job. Along with Head Coach Liam Coen, Udinski seems to have helped salvage the career of Trevor Lawrence — who was incredible over the last few weeks.

Don’t be surprised if teams like the Cardinals, who won’t necessarily be a destination gig for people like Stefanski, try to recruit Udinski — sensing he might have a Sean McVay-type aura to him. Heck, teams might even be satisfied trying to find the next Coen.

The Cardinals could also go after Kubiak for similar reasons. He’s an offensive mind at a time when they appear set to make changes at quarterback.

It’s reasonable to think Chris Shula and Jesse Minter could easily end up getting new jobs. Both seem quite highly rated. Nevertheless, Kubiak’s going to be in the mix for sure. There are many reasons why.

He inherited a shambles of an offense from Ryan Grubb and despite sweeping changes (changing quarterback, trading DK Metcalf) he created the #10 ranked unit per DVOA. He has led a staff that has transformed the O-line performance and helped turn Jaxon Smith-Njigba into a star.

The Seahawks are winning and part of Kubiak’s allure will be tapping into what has worked in the Pacific North West. This is as much about hiring from Seattle as anything.

Many will note he isn’t the most dynamic speaker in the media but regardless of how he communicates, it’s still easy for an owner to win the initial press conference by introducing Kubiak. You pitch that you’re bringing in a bright, young offensive mind who has worked with Shanahan (also not the most dynamic media presence), succeeded in Seattle and his Dad was a Super Bowl winning Head Coach with the Broncos.

That ticks a lot of boxes.

I’ve seen it mentioned that the fact he and his family have had to move cities in five consecutive years might make him reluctant to make it six by moving again. I’m not buying that.

If it’s his burning ambition to be a NFL Head Coach, that is a very difficult thing to turn down. Given his family background and his life in football, I’d guess it probably is his aim to get a top job. It sounds great — not doing it now, turning down jobs, waiting until next year. You never know if that opportunity will still be on the table in 12 months.

Even then, you’re moving six times in seven years instead of six in six. It’s still another move. The best way to ensure you’re not moving around all the time is to get a Head Coaching job. If it works out — and that’s what you plan for — you’re not moving for years. It’s the kind of security, not to mention increased pay (which also matters greatly) you’re not getting as an offensive coordinator.

The one thing that would hurt Kubiak’s job prospects, although not hurt him personally I’m sure, is an extended playoff run for the Seahawks. Teams get uncomfortable waiting around. It was actually quite a ballsy move by the Seahawks in 2024 to wait as long as they did for Mike Macdonald. Had they missed out and he’d gone to Washington instead, what then?

If the Seahawks get to the Super Bowl you’d have to really want Klint Kubiak to wait until February.

Clearly the best chance of the Seahawks keeping hold of their offensive coordinator is to make the final game of the NFL season. Let’s hope they do it.

If he ends up moving on it would be a tough pill to swallow, as he’d likely take the staff he brought to Seattle with him. It’d mean major changes again. I also think he’s done an excellent job mostly and it’d be great to see what a second season with Kubiak running the offense looks like.

Who could replace him? The Seahawks seemed to like Mike Kafka quite a lot two years ago. He could be an option. By interviewing Udinski and Hank Fraley a year ago they showed they are also willing to think outside of the box.

Sources: The #Seahawks and star OT Charles Cross have agreed to terms on a 4-year extension worth $104.4M — $26.1M average per year.

This is the largest non-QB contract in Seattle history. He gets $40.5M in Year 1 in a deal done by agent Saint Omni of @KlutchSports. pic.twitter.com/izLEEAcBOy

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 4, 2026

This news shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. A few weeks ago Brady Henderson, the primary source of Seahawks intel, suggested Cross — along with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Devon Witherspoon — would likely get new deals in 2026.

The big question for me, and the discussion I’ve tried to generate over the last few weeks, is how much a new deal should be worth.

I am surprised at how Cross has been viewed both locally and nationally. There’s been almost no conversation about his play, with many assuming he’s one of the NFL’s top left tackles. My argument has been that there’s little evidence of that.

Without going over old ground too much, he wasn’t even an honourable mention on Jeremy Fowler’s executive, scouts and coaches poll for the top players at his position (16 others were listed). He’s 14th on ESPN’s pass-block win-rate rankings. He is PFF’s 30th ranked offensive tackle at the end of the season.

Josh Jones, who played in relief for Cross over the last three games, averaged a PFF grade of 71.5. Cross’ average for the season is 66.7. In the most recent outing against San Francisco — Jones’ grade was a 75.4. The only time Charles earned a grade that high was in week one.

Making these points has often been confused with people thinking I want Cross out of Seattle. I don’t. I just want to avoid overpaying for a level of performance that isn’t quite what many people would have you believe.

I even went on the Seahawks Collective and admitted I wanted to see what life was like without Cross to help determine his true value. In fairness, it may well be that missing the last three weeks has helped get a deal done. The Seahawks have hardly faced a crisis at left tackle in Cross’ absence. This possibly cultivated a negotiating environment that was reasonable for all parties.

As I discussed on today’s stream with Jeff Simmons earlier, I don’t think his performance level warranted a re-setting of the market. He didn’t warrant a $30m a year contract. It’s possible the reported $26.1m average per year is lower than Ian Rapoport is suggesting, with his information almost certainly coming from Cross’ agency.

Curtis Allen has already provided some clarity. The fifth-year option for 2026 is not being replaced by the new deal. Per Curtis, that technically means the contract from next season onwards is $24.4m per year over five seasons.

Today I pitched the idea of $24m a year. That felt fair to avoid losing a 25-year-old left tackle who, while not exactly being Tristan Wirfs, also isn’t a liability. There is value in that, along with consistency on the offensive line.

If it’s between $24-26m, I say fair enough. It puts him in the Christian Darrisaw range which feels reasonable. He’s still young enough to take the step I think we’ve all been hoping to see in his performance. Cross is clearly well respected and a big character fit for the identity of the team. This isn’t an overpay, although I think a bit more realism and a little less hype about Cross would be welcome when analysing him in future.

JSN and Witherspoon will inevitably follow, probably over the summer. One thing to consider will be the outlay the franchise will now have to start spending on extensions. It will limit how much ‘cash’ they have to spend.

Cap space isn’t the only thing to consider with teams. There isn’t a bottomless pit of cash to guarantee multiple players who sign large new contracts. If Cross, Smith-Njigba and Witherspoon all agree deals, it’ll mean there’s less of a chance they’ll make splashy moves in free agency. The Seahawks were never likely to dive head first into free agency anyway — but I think it’s important to set realistic expectations (especially with Tyler Linderbaum remaining without a new deal in Baltimore).

It shouldn’t preclude them entering the trade market in March, especially if the players they are acquiring don’t require an immediate new contract (something the Seahawks don’t like to do anyway). As we’ve discussed, there will be options there.