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College football week seven scouting notes: Why draft media is having a bad year

October 15, 2025 /

Draft media is having a Jets-like start to the season

The draft has become such big business that it needs to be talked about constantly. The way to market a draft is to promote players and make them the faces of a class — particularly at quarterback. Sometimes this is easy because the players are there. Sometimes they aren’t and that’s when the problems start.

This summer we saw a number of high profile pundits list Arch Manning as a potential #1 overall pick or the top draft eligible player for 2026. There was zero evidence for this. He showed nothing to back this up in two relief starts for Texas against UL Monroe and Mississippi State. You’d never typically grade a player in that range after two college starts. But this was a Manning, so he headlined nearly every article — mostly because it got the clicks. Fans of bad teams could dream about having the next great Manning as their franchise saviour.

Some knew the deal with Manning and perhaps weren’t under the same editorial pressure to mention him in every piece or podcast. Therefore, in search of an alternative, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik was chosen to be the name who would lead the quarterbacks.

Manning showed he wasn’t ready for the hype (and nobody should’ve expected him to be) and Klubnik was quickly exposed as a limited player with very little pro potential.

So what now?

No defensive linemen were elevating their stock to the top end. Some have tried to push Miami’s Rueben Bain into the top-five but it again feels really forced for a player who is bigger and more power-centric than twitchy. It’s a class light at every premium position — cornerback, left tackle, EDGE.

Attention turned to Dante Moore at Oregon after the win at Penn State. At that point, winning against the Nittany Lions was seen as an achievement. Moore, a former five-star recruit, had pulled off a big win. Penn State going on to lose to UCLA and Northwestern showed it wasn’t quite the big success many thought. Nevertheless, suddenly Moore was everyone’s top player for 2026.

This week Mel Kiper placed him at #1 on his first 2026 big board.

I’m not seeing it. Moore hasn’t played that well. He looks like a player with limited playing experience — because he has limited playing experience. We shouldn’t be pushing him towards the draft, we should be looking forward to watching him play at least one more year for Oregon.

At the moment he’s ranked 39th in college football for QBR (69.6). To compare, Arch Manning isn’t that far behind (67.9). For EPA it’s even worse — he’s ranked 59th (20.3). He’s benefitted from some nice easy games including Oklahoma State before they fired their coach, hapless Oregon State (who have also now fired their coach), Montana State and Northwestern — along with the win at Penn State. The player being talked up as destined to be the #1 pick wasn’t the player you saw on tape.

On Saturday, I thought he played quite poorly in the loss to Indiana. He didn’t look like a first round pick in this game, let alone the #1 overall pick. That Kiper put him at #1 after watching this is extremely surprising, frankly.

I tracked all of his throws in the game and 23 of 34 were high-percentage, easy throws (dump-offs, quick passes to the outside, checkdowns, jet sweeps, RPO’s etc). There were 11 throws that I’d consider semi-challenging or difficult (downfield throws, layered passes, throws requiring anticipation or throws over the middle in traffic). He completed just two of those passes.

His accuracy was off all game. Too often when Indiana took away his first read he would set off to run but with no purpose, making him easy to track down and tackle. He didn’t look elusive or much of a runner and as soon as the eyes dropped and the legs started moving, it was pretty much the end of the play. He took too many sacks (six on the day) and his best run was a four-yard gain.

His first interception was on a tipped pass but the second was just Indiana jumping the latest easy dump-off. You can only do that so often before the defense will gamble and win.

I was shocked how he barely threw downfield. His touchdown, a 44-yard throw, came on a total bust in coverage where he could’ve arm-punted the ball to his receiver if he wanted to.

I didn’t see any technically challenging NFL throws, any real command of the offense, any difference making physical talent or an ability to elevate his team against a tough opponent. He looked exactly like a player figuring things out at the start of his career — because that’s what he is.

There wasn’t a single thing about this display that said Moore is ready for the NFL, should be remotely considering turning pro or warranted the lofty praise the media have been giving him. Indiana were deserved winners, 30-20.

Yet we’re being told he’s the top player in the draft. Really?

Now let’s discuss the other quarterback in the game, Fernando Mendoza. He too is being massively talked up by draft media as a possible top-10 pick. This is despite the fact he plays in a RPO-heavy offense that is so incredibly challenging to project to the next level.

He ranks 7th for QBR (84.6) which is at least better than Moore’s 39th. However, for EPA, he’s only 28th (31.7).

On the first play he fakes the handoff so he’s opting to pass and then locks onto his #1 target Elijah Sarratt. He lingers on him so long, then throws a back-shoulder throw which is perfectly delivered, with the receiver equally doing his job flawlessly for a nice gain. In the pro’s, you can’t hold on to that throw. It needs to come out with anticipation quickly. If you sit there eyeing it up for three-and-a-half seconds the ball is getting played or picked.

They love the back-shoulder type throws to the outside and go to it all the time. It’s a limited playbook executed well. There’s a ton of short range stuff off the fake hand-off and a lot of throws to the sideline. He does his job well but I’m not even sure we’re seeing the variety of throws that Kurtis Rourke delivered in this system.

It’s only fair to highlight what a brilliant job Curt Cignetti does with this offense and the results are there for all to see.

However, with his quarterback I just see a player benefitting from the system who isn’t an elusive, creative player. There’s never any improv. He threw a horrendous pick-six off his back-foot — just lofting it up in the air for one of the easiest scores a defender could wish for. His accuracy is not pinpoint (there were multiple off-target throws in this game). He doesn’t challenge downfield with a great arm. When he throws on the run the ball tends to die. His best throws are to the sideline and he’s had some good moments there. There’s not much evidence of progression-based quarterbacking and no evidence of working under center.

Is Mendoza a first round pick? Not for me. Yet on Kiper’s board he’s the #3 overall player.

It doesn’t just come down to these two though. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers is also often touted as a high pick but is nowhere close to being ready to turn pro. He’s miles away from round one, as emphasised by a wretched performance against LSU on Saturday. He’s ranked 59th for QBR. On Kiper’s board he’s the 21st overall prospect. How? Why?

The best quarterback in college football at the moment is Ty Simpson and it’s not even close. We’ve been talking about him for a while now and it won’t be long before the draft media start projecting him in the same range as these others. At least with Simpson the tape somewhat warrants the chatter — but even then, he’s still raw with only a handful of starts to his name and he’d be best served returning to college like the rest of the names here next year.

That said, my word is he just on a different level.

Unlike the others who play in limited systems with a ton of high-percentage throws, Simpson is out there taking the game to opponents. He attacks the middle of the field. He delivers complex, NFL-level throws every week. He fits the football into tight windows, he looks off defenders, he layers passes in-between defenders. He excels on third down.

None of the other quarterbacks I’ve talked about in this piece have made a throw like Simpson does here (with the exception of one Mendoza throw):

On Saturday, unbeaten Missouri wasn’t an easy place to play and Alabama were 7-0 down early. This was Simpson’s response on the next drive. A big third down completion, avoiding pressure, stepping into the pocket and delivering. Then a bootleg to the right, running for a nine-yard gain. A good throw to the tight end Josh Cuevas, followed by another 3rd down conversion in the red zone. He finishes off the drive with an angle route to the running back for a touchdown — knowing exactly where he wanted to go.

The crowd were quietened and he looked and played like a pro. He’s composed, his execution is top level and he lit up the field.

Look at his second touchdown. It’s on 3rd and 12 so a difficult down and distance. He drops, sets and there’s no hesitation. This is a NFL throw through traffic into the end zone. Absolutely fantastic:

Can he run and improvise? Yep. Look at this scramble to convert a 3rd and 4 running up the middle. He shows great instinct, decision making and athleticism. It’s a 20-yard run (he just needs to learn to slide at the end):

Again, I’ll keep saying it. The next video below is what a NFL quarterback looks like. There’s no RPO or dump-off or jet-screen here. This is a passer on 2nd and 9 going through his progressions (look at his helmet) and despite facing quick pressure right in his face (he gets levelled after the throw) he spots an open target and with zero hesitation getting the ball out on time and on target. And look at the receiver — this wasn’t a wide-open easy chuck into the flat. This is a first round play:

Most players get sacked on that play and it’s drive over.

Look at this throw on 4th and 8. Imagine if he doesn’t make this, with Alabama only holding a three-point lead in the fourth quarter:

He finished this drive with a red zone throw on 4th and goal to ice the game.

This is the quarterback of the year so far. Since the difficult game at Florida State on the opening weekend, where everyone played badly for Alabama and it was his first true start as the unchallenged quarterback of the team, his QBR is 87.3 from the following five games. That includes games against Missouri and Georgia on the road and the upstart Vanderbilt at home.

He has 18 total touchdowns and just one interception so far this season (the pick came on a fourth down where he might as well throw it anyway).

He is extremely impressive. He also takes snaps under center — something a lot of college QB’s never do.

If there’s one quibble it’s that he takes too many sacks. He needs to work on this but I’m tempted to say for the improv quality and playmaking, it’s a consolation prize to let him play with some freedom.

I read a piece a few days ago where Jordan Reid for ESPN ranked Moore, Mendoza and Sellers as the three ‘hottest’ draft eligible quarterbacks in college football.

Nobody should be ranked higher than Simpson at quarterback right now and it’s not close. If I was a GM being told by the owner I must draft a quarterback at all costs in 2026, this is the player I would choose. Garrett Nussmeier has been too injured to properly assess and has failed to remove the ugly turnovers from his game. John Mateer has rushed back from injury too quickly and didn’t look close to being right against Texas. Arkansas’ Taylen Green would be a good day-two bet if I had that freedom to wait.

If I didn’t, Simpson’s the guy. I just hope when he gets the hype that the others have been afforded, he’ll consider staying in college. There is no need to rush to the NFL and a second year starting at Alabama would be wise. Hone your craft, live through positive and negative experiences. Enjoy college. Then turn pro.

At least with his technical quality you can understand why he might feel like he’s ready for the NFL. Moore isn’t close to being ready, neither is Sellers.

It’s not working for Garrett Nussmeier

He came into the season the legit QB1 for his class because he threw the highest number of NFL throws last season. However, either his mind is scrambled at the moment and he’s forcing things to try and impress, the injuries have just taken their toll and he shouldn’t be out there or he’s just a player who will always press and making mistakes.

Against South Carolina he had a bad overthrow on an interception, then a poor red zone pick. He started the season well but the mistakes have returned and he hasn’t taken the step forward he was hoping to in 2025. In the right system I still think he can shine — and that’d be a Shanahan/McVay/O’Connell type scheme. If he lasts to the middle rounds he could even end up being something of a steal. But it seems unlikely he will go in the top-50 based on what we’re seeing at the moment.

He wasn’t as bad as LaNorris Sellers in this game though. Again, he should either return to South Carolina or transfer somewhere he can develop because at the moment he’s just a tools-based project.

Taylen Green remains interesting

Every time I watch Arkansas I half expect Green to have a bad performance and ground his stock. Yet even during blowouts, it’s been hard to pin anything on the quarterback. He has a decent arm and he has shown an ability to make explosive plays. He’s a genuine threat as a runner and I maintain that there’s a bit of Colin Kaepernick to his playing style — although his throwing mechanics are superior.

I think there’s half a chance he could be a day two player who, for the right team, could emerge as a handy starter. Physically he has what you need in the modern NFL. He ranks second in college for QBR (90.1) and EPA (52.3).

Makai Lemon is a quality receiver

Once again he showed off a great skill-set in USC’s easy win against Michigan. Body control, ball-tracking, concentration, hands, speed. Lemon had nine catches for 93 yards and a score.

Here’s the touchdown and as you can see, he’s really had to contort his body in traffic to make the grab:

I think in a typical draft class he’d likely go somewhere between 25-40 but in 2026, with such a dearth of good options, he could go earlier.

Mike Washington Jr is a running back to watch

The Arkansas transfer is big, physical, finishes runs but also has some quickness and ability to dodge tacklers. He really stood out against Tennessee so I watched some more of his stuff over the last few days. There’s a player here.

Not many runners have this kind of burst at a listed 6-2 and 223lbs:

Bobby Petrino, the interim Head Coach at Arkansas, has compared him to Knile Davis — a former third round pick in 2013. Washington Jr is one to watch, especially if the Seahawks need to add a back next year.

Other notes

— I had Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt on my board last year as a third rounder and in his last two performances against Iowa and Oregon he’s showing why he could go in that range. I’m not convinced he’ll be an amazing tester with a high NFL ceiling. However, he is technically good and runs clever, crisp routes. He understands what he’s doing and plays with a competitive edge. He’s reliable (only two drops for the season). I like him.

— I’m less sure why Oregon tight end Kenyon Sidiq is appearing in the top-15 of mocks. Sure, he looks athletic and compact. Yet in the big game on Saturday he had one catch for 13 yards until a garbage time eight-yard reception. You’d like to think an offense like Oregon’s, which featured Terrance Ferguson in big games frequently, would get him more involved if he justified that type of projection. The desperation to ‘find’ names this year has been on a different level.

— A different Oregon player is very interesting. A’Mauri Washington the defensive tackle had a fantastic bull-rush against Indiana showing his great combination of power and mobility to walk an interior lineman back into the quarterback:

It’s rare to see this level of quickness on a player listed at 6-3 and 330lbs:

Washington ranked #4 on Bruce Feldman’s latest freaks list, reportedly running at 20.89mph and vertical jumping 36 inches. Now it’s worth noting in other games this season I haven’t noticed him that much. He isn’t a big pressure or sack artist. At the moment he’s more potential than game-wrecker and at the next level he might be more useful as an athletic nose who takes a bit of time to work things out.

Even so — he’s doing things most people his size can’t. That needs to be noted.

— Sometimes you’ve got to save a player from himself. Yes, Oklahoma probably started dreaming about winning the SEC and going on a great run before John Mateer hurt his hand and needed surgery. It was clear watching on Saturday he wasn’t ready to play. Oklahoma were awful and so was the QB as they lost to Texas. His accuracy was off all day — throwing behind (including on his second of three interceptions). His dynamic playmaking was totally stymied. It was sad, really, to watch a player who is so much better than this endure such a performance. He only turns 22 next April so he might be back for the Sooners in 2026.

— Drew Allar is undraftable. It’s been trending that way for a while but the latest horror show against Northwestern followed by a season-ending injury confirms it. He’ll probably have to consider returning to school next year to repair his stock. Whatever they’ve been teaching him at Penn State is just atrocious. We’ve talked all year about his tendency to throw late. Look at this interception from Saturday:

Look how late it is. He keeps doing this — holding onto the ball, delaying. The target looks like he’s shaping for a back-shoulder throw but it’s so late there’s no chance. It’s a sad story really, just how far he’s fallen this year. But you can’t draft him playing this way and now with an injury. It’s rough.

— Last week I mentioned Arvell Reese the linebacker at Ohio State could be another Abdul Carter. Look at this rush from the edge against Illinois for further validation of that:

He’s getting more and more opportunities to rush for the Buckeye’s. It’s the type of rush that’s worth noting. He isn’t just running around a limited tackle with speed. He’s attacking that tackle and just bossing him back into the quarterback with power. If you can do that at 240lbs, with a quick-twitchy athletic frame, he can be a huge weapon. He’s one of the few players this year that you can say with a degree of certainty will be a high pick if he declares.

— It’s good to see Jalen Catalon playing well again. The safety is on his fourth team now after spells at Arkansas, Texas, UNLV and now Missouri. The injuries over the years have clearly taken their toll and I’m not sure he’ll be drafted when the time comes to turn pro. I thought he performed well against Alabama. He’ll be 25-years-old by the time of the 2026 draft.

Potential trade targets for the Seahawks to consider before the deadline

October 13, 2025 /

“Trades will happen this week”

Those were the words of Adam Schefter on Monday, following on from his weekend report that as many as a dozen players could swap teams between now and November 4th.

I’d be surprised if the Seahawks don’t do something. Look at their history. The moves for Ernest Jones and Leonard Williams. Adding players like Quandre Diggs, Carlos Dunlap and Duane Brown in the past.

There are going to be opportunities coming and some teams are already at the point where rebuilding is being embraced.

The Titans fired Brian Callahan today, effectively writing off their season. They’ll spend the next few weeks evaluating for the future and deciding who they want to be their next Head Coach.

The Miami Dolphins might be the next to make a change, with Mike McDaniel increasingly under pressure. Meanwhile, at 0-6, league insiders are suggesting every player could be available on the Jets’ roster.

Schefter said the Browns are willing to consider making deals (they are 1-5) and it won’t be a shock if the Saints (also 1-5) are willing to make some moves as they need to rebuild their roster.

Previously I suggested Devin Lloyd, only to see him literally the next day claim two interceptions against the 49ers. The Jacksonville linebacker then had a pick-six against the Chiefs. My thought process was the Jaguars’ new GM came from the Rams and they are allergic to paying linebackers. In a contract year, the Jags might be inclined to get what they can for Lloyd if he’s not part of their long-term plan. I think, given the way he’s playing, they are obviously less likely to do this now. They don’t have a first round pick next year but they’re expected to have 12 total picks in 2026 — making it less likely they need to acquire any extras now. The Rams really don’t value linebackers though.

Then there was Maxx Crosby. His contract is surprisingly easy to trade — it would only cost the Raiders $5m in dead money this year and next. The Raiders left the door open with Crosby’s extension — but a two-sack performance in a much-needed win against the Titans all but eliminates that prospect for now. If they lose their next two games against the Chiefs (A) and Jaguars (H) perhaps they’d consider it at 2-6 before the deadline?

I’ve looked around and tried to be creative with suggestions. Here are some more names to discuss. Some will be more exciting than others but I’m just throwing them out there…

L’Jarius Sneed (CB, Titans)
It’s not that long ago that Sneed was viewed as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. In 2024 the Chiefs even placed the franchise tag on him. However, with no extension forthcoming and some injury concerns emerging, Kansas City sought to move him. They did so for a third rounder and a pick swap. It hasn’t really worked in Tennessee but that might be down to the Titans opting for ‘shambolic franchise’ as an identity. He’s 28-years-old and more competent than great these days — but that might work for the Seahawks. His base salary is such that by my reckoning he might cost about $11m for the rest of the season, so he’s not cheap. Yet the Seahawks have $22m available in effective cap space. If they want an upgrade at outside corner — and it seems pretty clear that’s a big need at the moment — they could do worse than seeing if the Titans will let Sneed go on the cheap. The question is has Sneed gone beyond his peak or does he still has some good football left in him?

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Dolphins)
He was traded back to the Dolphins from the Steelers in exchange for Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and a pick swap. If Miami is considering a rebuild, is a soon-to-be 29-year-old Fitzpatrick likely to be part of their plan? The injury to Julian Love has created a problem for the Seahawks and really tested their depth. Fitzpatrick is also multi-faceted and can wear a number of hats. Could he provide some depth and security for the rest of the season? His base salary in 2025 is only $1.25m. The only concern is — the Steelers traded him away, somewhat surprisingly, for a reason — amid concerns about low effort play having been shifted to nickel last year. That doesn’t sound very ‘Mike Macdonald’. He’s still playing at a decent level though.

Sauce Gardner (CB, Jets)
This would be seen as a big splash and would likely cost a high pick in 2026. Gardner has not lived up to the hype from his rookie season so you’d need to determine how much of that is down to the player and how much is it being stuck on a terrible Jets team. If you believe in the talent and think you can turn him into an elite corner, you consider the move. As with Crosby, it’s surprisingly manageable for the Jets to deal him despite his recent contract extension. The Jets would take on an $11m dead cap hit in 2026 and $8m this year. That’s not back-breaking if you’d prefer the picks. They have a new GM who is watching the current roster go winless in six — so they might want to trade anyone to get stock for next year. Yet the new regime were the ones who extended Gardner so unless everyone truly is ‘up for sale’ — the chances are they won’t trade him.

Logan Wilson (LB, Bengals)
A former blog favourite, Wilson’s play has regressed in Cincinnati recently. After spending two good draft picks on linebackers this year, there’s a chance the Bengals are ready to move on. Some fans have suggested they should try and get ‘anything’ for Wilson. That doesn’t sound like a glowing review of his current play but nobody seems to be playing well on defense in Cincy. He only turned 29 in June so he’s not old and could provide useful depth and experience at linebacker. It appears Tyrice Knight (two snaps vs Jacksonville) has been benched for Drake Thomas, who played well. Could they do with more at this spot? Has Wilson got enough left in the tank to provide more? If they think so, they might be able to get him for virtually nothing. I’d prefer Pete Werner or Demario Davis in New Orleans but Wilson might be more readily available. His base salary is only $5.4m for the season and he’s already played six games.

Keion White (DE, Patriots)
Seen by many as a breakout candidate under Mike Vrabel, the opposite has happened for White this season. His role has been gradually reduced and he didn’t play against the Saints on Sunday with an elbow injury. He’s in year three of his rookie deal and might want a change of scenery if he doesn’t fit what Vrabel is looking for. Furthermore, the Patriots are doing quite well without him. The Seahawks have shown interest in having bigger defensive ends — using Mike Morris and occasionally Jared Ivey. DeMarcus Lawrence isn’t small either. Could they take a look at White if he’s available on the cheap? He had five sacks last season. It’d probably depend on how they viewed him in the draft. He was the 46th pick in 2023, with the Seahawks taking Derick Hall (who they had a first round grade on) at #37.

Adding a veteran pass-rusher
If Trey Hendrickson becomes available before the deadline (and the Bengals will likely let things play out with Joe Flacco for another game or two first), you’d have to imagine the Seahawks will put a call in. The problem is, the 49ers and Eagles are even more needy at the position and will probably be prepared to be very aggressive. A bidding war would be challenging. Hendrickson also hurt his back on Sunday. Would they consider a Cam Jordan or Bradley Chubb? Potentially — but Sunday’s showing in Jacksonville might shift the priority to the secondary.

Things I don’t think are likely
I can’t see the Seahawks acquiring a new right guard. The Browns are supposedly open to moving some of their linemen but let’s not forget what Wyatt Teller did to Uchenna Nwosu. I’ve always liked Joel Bitonio, going way back to the 2014 draft, but he just turned 34 and has played one solitary NFL snap at right guard (six years ago). As mediocre as the 2026 draft class currently looks, there are some good offensive line options. They may stick with what they’ve got this year. I would’ve liked the idea of adding Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed a few weeks ago, given both know the Kubiak offense. However, Seattle’s supporting cast has shown using a decent pick on either isn’t really necessary.

Instant reaction: Seahawks win on the road again, beat the Jaguars

October 12, 2025 /

There are several reasons to feel really good about this win.

It’s never easy travelling from Seattle to Florida and then playing your best ball. This is always a case of getting the job done. They did that — continuing an excellent run on the road.

It’s a win against a team with a lot of momentum and, prior to today, a 4-1 record. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes lost in Jacksonville on Monday. Coming here and winning, simply because the Jaguars didn’t look great on the day, shouldn’t be underestimated.

The defense was embarrassed last week and ruined what should’ve been a winning display from the offense. There were moments where the coverage struggles continued again — yet overall this was a massive improvement. The defensive line led the way with seven sacks — one more than Jacksonville had given up in their previous five games combined. The entire defensive front played very well.

Sam Darnold continues to play at a high level. His chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most exciting aspect of the team currently. As JSN moves himself securely into a top-five player at his position in the NFL, Darnold is elevating himself into a strong position too. There are a lot of bad quarterbacks out there and very few very good ones. The Seahawks, so far, have played a blinder signing Darnold.

It’s also worth noting the supporting cast are delivering at a good enough level to allay any fears about whether they were a weapon or two short.

I’ve seen some complaints about the play-calling which I don’t agree with. You’re always going to run the ball in the fourth quarter when you’re leading 20-6 or 20-12. Seattle’s problem wasn’t being too conservative — it’s that they’re still working out how to run the ball consistently and competently. That’s something that still needs a lot of work.

I also think the trade market is going to have to come up with some answers in the secondary. Their depth isn’t good enough to cope with a couple of injuries. They need more.

They also need to start winning their home games. I know it’s stating the obvious but when you’re this good on the road, you can have a truly incredible season if you handle your business at home. They’ve got to get that right, starting with the Texans up next.

This is a wide open NFL season and the Seahawks are one of the teams in the mix, which is a good feeling.

Curtis Allen’s Watch Points (Week Six vs Jacksonville)

October 12, 2025 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Life sure comes at you quickly in the NFL.  The ‘Any Given Sunday’ trope is alive and well this season for all teams — and that includes the Seahawks and Jaguars.

A brilliant game by Sam Darnold was undone by a secondary plagued by injuries and an equally brilliant game by Baker Mayfield.  The ‘Seahawks cannot win at home’ narrative is alive and well unfortunately.  The silver lining might be they can keep the ‘Seahawks are excellent on the road’ narrative going.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville recorded a signature win in prime time against a legacy team and are riding a wave of positivity at 4-1 under the leadership of new Head Coach Liam Coen.

Fuelling the Jaguars’ early-season success is an incredible run of takeaways on defense and an offense that relies on quick passing and some explosive running by Travis Etienne.

Both teams have a belief they can play with anyone.  Both also have new Offensive staffs that have been very effective and defenses that have more than their fair share of highlights.

You could argue Jacksonville has the edge from the momentum of beating Kansas City and the Seahawks have to fly across the country and play in warm, muggy weather with a 10am body clock.

You could equally argue that the Seahawks have the edge, given how they have already experienced a letdown at home and bounced back heartily on the road (Weeks 1-2) and that Jacksonville might have a bit of a letdown on a shorter week after winning such a hard-fought game.

It should be a fantastic matchup.  How can the Seahawks come away with a win?

Control the Game

There is a straight line between the Jags’ success and their ability to generate turnovers on defense.  It goes far beyond just keeping their opponents out of the end zone.

So far this season, the Jacksonville defense has only had to play 15 of their 311 snaps of football while behind on the scoreboard.  They have been able to force offenses into an unbalanced mix on offense.  No defense in the NFL has faced fewer rushing attempts through five games.

And yet when they do, they are conceding 4.6 yards per carry, good for only #22 in the NFL.  A well-executed run game plan (of which I think we can all agree the team is overdue on) can put a lot of pressure on both the Jags’ offense and defense.  Pressure that through five weeks, they have experienced very little of.

How would they respond?  They have not all that well so far:  In those fifteen snaps mentioned above, they are conceding an NFL-worst 8.87 yards per play.  Yes, that is an incredibly small sample size.  But if the Seahawks expand that sample size by using the run game to balance their offense, the odds swing dramatically in their favor.

That is not to suggest the Seahawks should come out and run the ball at a crazy rate.  But teams have been able to move the ball when they incorporate doses of running into their offense.  A series or two of some runs setting up some explosive pass plays to gain a lead early could be just the thing to turn this game on its head.

Bonus stat:  The Jags have conceded ten runs of ten yards or more so far this season.  Five of them have been by Quarterbacks scrambling.  They run a lot of zone defense, and running slants and crossers opens up space for scrambles to gain first downs and keep that clock moving.

How can the Seahawks control the game on defense?

Coen is constantly changing the eye level of defenses.  He loves to mix fly sweeps and screen passes that test the edges with runs between the tackles and quick slant passes in the middle.  And with the element of Brian Thomas being able to work downfield, there are multiple attack points that need to be defended on every play.

He has Trevor Lawrence making decisions very quickly, averaging 2.2 seconds from snap to throw when he drops back and his average depth of target is among the lowest as well.  As a result, he is facing a league-low 10% pressure rate.

The downside is in his fifth year, Lawrence is still a one-read Quarterback.

Coen has taken a lot of the burden of carrying an offense off of Lawrence’s shoulders.  The Seahawks need to put it all back on.

The Linebacking group and Nick Emmanwori will be key players.  Their speed will determine whether some of these screens and sweeps will be effective.  Edge players like Demarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu will also be critical in keeping their teammates clean and forcing those horizontal plays towards the sidelines.

Keeping the game in front of them and not allowing easy throws to gain chunks of yards will swing the control in their favor.

That is not to say Lawrence is some noodle-armed checkdown merchant.  He has the arm strength and touch to put the ball where he wants to at times.

But there are two major weaknesses the Seahawks can exploit by making the success of the offense dependent on his arm.

One, he is still regularly throwing interceptions.  In five games this season he has five.  It is a downside of his adjustment to yet another new offense and his crippling dependence on his first read.

And two, this:

Lawrence’s receivers are dropping balls at a prodigious rate.  It is only a matter of time before someone really makes them pay for it.

Win the Battle of the Backups

The injury reports this week were not great for the Seahawks.  Tariq Woolen and Derrick Hall will not play and key defenders Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love are doubtful.

We know what this means for the Seahawks, especially given the difficulties they had in the secondary last week.

Josh Jobe, Ty Okada, Shaq Griffin and Nathaniel Pritchett must come up with solid performances.  All the work we described above can be undone with some over the top deep passes to tilt the field.

Jacksonville has potential obstacles to overcome as well.

Brenton Strange was Lawrence’s top target in the passing game at the time he was injured.  He will miss this game.  While Hunter Long has had some clutch catches, he is a long way from filling Strange’s shoes.  Will having his top option out hinder their offense?

Also notable is Center Robert Hainsey is doubtful to play with a hamstring injury.  He has started all five games this year and been a very solid addition to the team.  Rookie Jonah Monheim would be the fill-in should Hainsey not be able to go.  Monheim had a few snaps against Chris Jones last week and would now face Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy.  If he is in, the Seahawks must take advantage and push the pocket into Lawrence’s lap.

College football week six scouting notes: Duke lineman excels & Arvell Reese is a first round talent

October 9, 2025 /

It’s been a difficult college football season for scouting so far — and you’re well used to me saying it’s not looking like a great 2026 class at the moment. However, I wanted to focus on some positives today…

Duke lineman Brian Parker is very interesting

Last year Graham Barton, Duke’s left tackle, was drafted 26th overall by Tampa Bay with the intention of kicking inside. Parker feels like he could emulate that achievement and be taken in a similar range.

He is playing very well at right tackle. He’s a high performing, rounded player for the scheme the Seahawks are using. He is PFF’s highest graded zone blocker in college (any position) with a 95.3 grade.

Here’s what you see on tape. Parker moves people off the ball and is extremely physical. He shows good technique with the ability to consistently get his hands inside to control blocks. He’s very mobile and capable of progressing to the second level, then landing on secondary blocks.

He has forceful hands and can jolt defenders off balance with violence. With 9:46 left in Duke’s game on Saturday against California he pulled dove inside and absolutely demolishes the interior defender to the extent you see his head rock back. He’s desperately trying to re-compose himself but the job’s done from Parker. The running back ran through the hole created for a 30-yard gain.

On Duke’s final touchdown with six minutes left they ran behind Parker. He combo-blocked the defensive lineman then reached up to the linebacker:

Look at that jolt on the initial defender and then the quick reactions to land on the linebacker who is completed handled by Parker. The running back gets a ton of space to exploit and darts for a 47-yard score.

There are some issues that show up on tape too. He is susceptible to the occasional inside swim and I’m not sure he has great length or the ability to play inside/out at a high level in the NFL. He looks better in smaller spaces where he can use his hand placement square-on, linking his ability to control with the upper-body to his peppering feet and agility. He did also show at times a propensity to drop a little too deep, ceding ground to the edge rusher.

I think his natural progression is to kick inside. That’s where you’ll really max-out his skill-set. There’s been talk he could end up at center like Barton but I prefer him at guard. He’s 6-5 and 300lbs which isn’t a typical center frame.

I see him as a top-50 talent pre-testing who could effectively be the right-sided equivalent to Grey Zabel if you wanted to go in that direction. He is definitely a name to keep on your radar.

There are several interior linemen that are interesting in this class. I’ve been talking up Penn State’s Vega Ioane — a player I think could warrant going in round one potentially. Miami’s Francis Mauigoa might be best served kicking inside. That could also be the case for Iowa’s Gennings Dunker and some even feel that way about Spencer Fano at Utah. There are options here.

Arvell Reese can be a first round pick

The Ohio State linebacker is getting a lot of buzz online so I decided to check him out. He’s a very impressive talent.

He doesn’t look like a ‘big’ player despite being listed at 6-4 and 243lbs. However, on tape he plays with a thunderous ferocity. He can get under the pads of big offensive linemen, stack them up and disengage. His jolting punch is shocking for a linebacker to displace linemen and throw them off balance. It makes him a real menace defending the run and unlocks a pass-rushing repertoire you don’t often see from a linebacker.

How many players at his position can control an offensive tackle off the edge like this? He’s keeping his entire frame clean to be able to read the play and shed:

There are not many players who can just throw off linemen the way he can:

However, the thing that makes Reece truly special is he combines this unique power with extreme quickness and burst. I’m becoming increasingly obsessed with range and speed at linebacker after watching Fred Warner live twice in two years and seeing his super-human ability in person to fly to the ball-carrier and run to the sideline, whilst playing with forceful power. Reece has such incredible range and suddenness — that’s why he has a shot to be something special:

When he’s not flying to the ball-carrier or levelling blockers, he’s adept at filling gaps and putting a hat on a hat. He’s very light on his feet and will read/react to plays from his gap. When it’s time to sprint outside he’ll do it — dodging any blocks or stacking/shedding when he needs to. Or if he just has to run right into the running back and fill a hole, he does that too.

His pursuit speed is excellent. He plays with a fantastic motor. His ability to sift through traffic is top notch. His range of contain is superb — stalking opponents and timing the strike consistently well.

And then there’s the pass-rushing. Ohio State has dabbled with using him off the edge a bit and he can do that too. You wonder if he could actually develop into another Abdul Carter type if he sticks around at Ohio State for another year.

If he declares and is part of this 2026 class, which is so light at the top-end, he can be a very high pick.

Ty Simpson continues to shine at Alabama

I’ve been talking about Simpson for a while because he just looks the part. There’s something here which is very interesting. He might not declare as a one-year starter but then again, as an older player, he might see an opportunity — especially if Alabama keeps winning.

He impressed again against Vanderbilt last weekend. His first touchdown is fantastic — showing great movement to escape pressure, reset and then throw to the end-zone:

His second touchdown is a perfectly thrown ball using his eyes to keep the safety inside slightly, before delivering to the left pylon with textbook accuracy and loft.

Second touchdown is a perfectly throw, using his eyes to keep the safety inside slightly and then throwing towards the left pylon with textbook accuracy and loft.

Simpson showed off his arm with a 55-yard shot down the sideline with good placement to Ryan Williams for a big fain in the third quarter. Then, with 7:05 left in the third — he scrambles away from pressure moving to his left. He runs away from the pocket to the right sideline to buy himself time, then quickly stops, re-sets his feet, frames his body to the target and throws perfectly over the middle to the uncovering receiver for a big gain. The momentum of his body is still fading left so he does an excellent job generating velocity and staying accurate:

One of the things I really like about Simpson is his willingness to make plays from the pocket attacking the middle of the field. He isn’t in an offense setting the table for him, making his life easy. He’s going after coverages. He is showing a lot of promise as a third-down converter, both as a passer and with his legs.

On a 3rd and 5 with 10:54 remaining in the game he was pressured so had to leave the pocket. Simpson scrambles to the right sideline and as he is being tackled by a defender he throws back across his body to an uncovering receiver for a first down. You want your quarterback to be able to improv and deliver a little magic from time to time. Here’s a good example of that:

His QBR score since the week-one loss to Florida State is 90.0 exactly. He is playing better than any other quarterback in college at the moment. He is making NFL throws, he’s doing what you want to see a pro-prospect do to project to the next level. Nothing about his completions are high-percentage or cookie-cutter.

He did throw a bit of a lousy interception against Vandy — his first of the season — although it was on fourth down and he probably just executed the call and it wasn’t on. When it’s fourth down, you’re not eating the play because there’s no next down to live for. You might as well put it into the air but he threw into coverage and was picked off.

He does take some sacks trying to extend but you can live with it because when he does break contain or finds that extra space, he’s technically so good at re-setting he can make big things happen.

I don’t know if he’ll be part of the 2026 class but he’s a very interesting prospect and I’d recommend checking him out in the coming weeks.

Final point on Reuben Bain

The Miami defensive end is getting a lot of love online but I feel obliged to push back a little bit here. There’s no doubt he’s playing well and impacting games. However, from a pure next-level projection point of view I do have some reservations.

He is a bigger pass rusher and relies on power a little too much for my liking. There have been some examples on tape where he bends and straightens off the edge but I feel like a very small sample is doing a lot of heavy lifting for what he can do as a player. There’s some stiffness to his game, he is not particularly twitchy and he’s not a loose-hipped athlete. I’d also note that his motor isn’t relentless and while there’s no doubting his jolting power at times, I’m not convinced he’s going to boss around NFL blockers.

One of the consistent mistakes draft media makes are to over-project bigger edge rushers. We see it every year — players in that 270-280lbs range who get hyped up as a first rounders but settle into day two. Nic Scourton is a good example this year. Many were projecting him to go very early and he ended up being the 51st overall pick. AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham. This is a common trend.

I’m not saying Bain will last well into day two — especially in this class — but I’m not buying the talk of him being a potential #1 overall prospect or even necessarily a player warranting a first round grade. He’s good — but not as good as some are hyping up.

Why Maxx Crosby could be a trade option for the Seahawks

October 8, 2025 /

When the Raiders extended Maxx Crosby’s contract in March, it looked like a commitment by the player to finish his career in Las Vegas.

A further study of his contract, however, suggests otherwise.

Typically when players sign big extensions it’s difficult to trade them without major financial consequences. For example — if the Browns trade Myles Garrett today, they would take on a $68m dead cap-hit for 2026 and have to eat another $20m this year. Moving him would be financial insanity.

No such restriction exists with Crosby. If the Raiders traded him away before the November 4th deadline, their dead cap-hit is only $5m this year and $5m next year.

The obvious conclusion to draw from this is the deal was window dressing — an extension done to remove any speculation about his future (Crosby, on his podcast, sympathised with Garrett after he announced his trade request in Cleveland). Combined with the appointment of Pete Carroll, who immediately talked about winning in 2025, it gave the impression the Raiders meant business. They were trying to engage the fanbase.

We’re in a very different time now. The Raiders have collapsed to 1-4 with a 40-6 pasting by the Colts the latest setback. The fans and media have turned on Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith. For the last two weeks Carroll has been asked about whether he’ll bench Smith for Kenny Pickett.

The all-in nature of the Raiders’ plan for this year hasn’t worked. They didn’t just hire a now 74-year-old Head Coach. They paid a fortune to bring Chip Kelly in as offensive coordinator. Patrick Graham, a highly rated defensive coordinator, was also retained. They aggressively pursued this vision and it’s hard to imagine they’ll tolerate much more of what we saw on Sunday. The Raiders franchise, even before Tom Brady’s arrival, has frequently hired and fired coaches.

Their next game is against the Titans. Lose that and it could spell trouble. Then it’s the Chiefs and Jaguars before the trade deadline. This is a key period where the Raiders are either going to turn a corner or face a brutal reality.

As passionate as Crosby is about his current team, he must surely be second guessing his future. As a player who gives every ounce of his being to every game, does he want to do that again for another lost season? Before potentially greeting another new regime? He’s reaching the time in his career where the next five years will determine so much — namely his ability to play meaningful football games at the business end of the season.

That contract definitely says ‘we will play this by ear’. The player clearly wanted flexibility and by agreeing to the contract, it seems like the team appreciates they can turn Crosby into stock for the future.

Could he be a target for the Seahawks?

According to Albert Breer, they pitched the idea of trading Geno Smith and DK Metcalf to Vegas for Crosby in the off-season. The Raiders turned it down. So we know they at least have some interest (an obvious statement given Crosby’s impact and talent).

He’s one of the few players in the NFL I’d be willing to go big on. His relentless playing style, personality and production can be a game-changer. He’s a true star off the edge.

You might only get four great years out of him but the Seahawks are entering a window where they need to take the next step. Finishing second or third in the NFC West and hoping to make the wildcard round has been their trend for a while now. Getting to the next step is often the hardest one and requires the addition, one way or another, of blue-chip talent.

Sam Darnold’s performances at quarterback are giving cause to believe this team can make some noise. The offense is humming. Surprisingly, it’s the defensive side of the ball that has at times looked like it needs help.

Before the season I pushed back on an aggressive trade because I thought the Seahawks needed to retain stock in case Darnold didn’t pan out. That concern is being swept away.

The 2026 draft also has to be considered. I have 96 players on my 2026 horizontal board currently. I’m finding it desperately hard to discover legit first round talents. This isn’t a draft class that appears to have much in the way of depth or top-end quality. There’s still time for that to change but we’re into October now. We’re not going to see a ton of movement in that regard.

I’d also argue there are not a lot of options emerging at cornerback or edge rush — two positions that could warrant strong consideration by the Seahawks.

Make no mistake, you would have to give up a lot for Crosby. Perhaps throwing Uchenna Nwosu into the mix, a Carroll favourite, could sweeten the deal? Or Riq Woolen or Boye Mafe? I suppose that would depend on how committed the Raiders are to Carroll.

Even then you’d be talking about your first round pick next year and something else of significance. There would also likely be a bidding war for his services which would ramp up the cost.

It might be time to roll the dice. With Crosby under contract until 2029, you wouldn’t have to worry about that angle either.

This isn’t just a wide open NFC this year. It’s a wide open NFL. We might see two teams in the Super Bowl few would’ve expected mere weeks ago. The Seahawks have a very competitive, talented roster — but they’re short of something. Adding an X-factor defender could be the missing piece.

Crosby’s contract was set up to have this kind of conversation about a trade. As he gets older, the trade compensation will decrease. If the Raiders are preparing to embrace a rebuild, I’d imagine they’d get more in a deal today than March.

I would consider it. I would be bold. With Crosby on Seattle’s roster they could’ve been 5-0 right now. Easily.

It won’t be cheap but it might be the thing that makes this season very interesting.

I discussed the subject with Puck today and you can check out our conversation below:

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