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Everything is pointing to Sam Darnold being Seattle’s replacement for Geno Smith. So what does it mean? Why is he the person they’re targeting? What is the bigger picture?

Why has this happened?

Simply put, I suspect the Seahawks don’t see a big difference between Smith and Darnold apart from the price-tag.

Reports are saying Smith wanted $45m a year. We’ll see what contract he agrees in Vegas. If Darnold is closer to $30m, it’s not insignificant. The Seahawks will probably structure the contract to contain annual outs, too. It likely won’t be a firm commitment. They’d just be switching to a younger, cheaper bridge.

Frankly, that makes sense.

Why do they want a bridge?

It all comes down to drafting a quarterback. That has almost certainly been the plan since trading Russell Wilson in 2022. It was always going to be the plan, whether Smith stayed or whether they pivoted to someone else.

The reason it hasn’t happened so far isn’t anything to do with Seattle’s wants and desires. The 2022 quarterback class was extremely poor. They didn’t pass on anyone who has flourished in 2023. Last year, six quarterbacks went in the top-12 and then there was a gap to round five. The opportunity to invest in a good, young quarterback with a realistic chance to be a starter hasn’t existed.

Now, for the first time in four drafts, there’s a pool of quarterbacks who are interesting and potentially within a reasonable early-round range for the Seahawks. It doesn’t mean a fantastic franchise passer will emerge from the group. But there will be an opportunity for Seattle to invest in a signal caller to see if they can become a capable starter with upside for more.

That’s what it’s all about. Finding the next guy in the draft. Yet in order to bridge to that player and guard against missing out, you still need a starter on the roster. That’s just common sense.

I know some people viewed Geno Smith as more than a bridge. The Seahawks didn’t agree. This is all about hedging for April and if the player or players they want are available, they will draft a quarterback this year.

Don’t underestimate this draft class

In a recently published board, Todd McShay included four quarterbacks in his top-30 — Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough. I don’t think anyone should be surprised if all four of those players go in round one. Meanwhile, Quinn Ewers will likely be a top-50 selection and we could still see Jalen Milroe and Riley Leonard go earlier than many are projecting.

We have a habit of running with narratives online within the football community. This isn’t a bad quarterback class. It lacks top-end talent. But it’s not bad and potential starters exist, even if some players will need plenty of development.

Can Darnold help Seattle compete in 2025?

Seattle’s new scheme will share DNA with Minnesota’s, where Darnold played as part of a 14-win team. He’s reuniting with an offensive coordinator he knows well. This scheme has been quarterback-friendly in the past.

There are positives to Darnold’s play. Only Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson threw more ‘big time throws’ last season. His PFF grade when he has less than 2.5 seconds to throw (81.0) is better than Geno Smith’s (77.9). He only threw two turnover worthy plays in that scenario, compared to Smith’s three.

Darnold ranked 14th per QBR, while Smith was 21st. Darnold was ninth for EPA, Smith was 14th. For EPA with low-leverage passes weighted down, Darnold was eighth and Smith 12th.

There are also things to be concerned about. He threw a league high 27 ‘turnover worthy plays’. We all saw how poorly he played in Minnesota’s final two critical games. It’s also worth noting that Smith’s worst grades in 2024 came against the Bears, 49ers, Lions, Packers and Vikings. All key games. He also had a significant pick-six against the Rams. He had his bad moments too.

Neither player is the answer long term. There’s not much to say one is worth $10-15m more than the other though. And that’s the point.

What about the offensive line though?

Whoever was the quarterback this year, the line would need improvement. The Seahawks know that. Armed with $60m in effective cap space, they’ll likely be aggressive on Monday when the legal tampering period begins.

I don’t want to repeat myself too much but Will Fries is the ideal addition — potentially pairing him with a center he’s familiar with in Ryan Kelly. Drew Dalman is a better option at center but it might be tricky to sign Fries and Dalman — with the Bears said to be leading the chase for the Atlanta lineman.

I keep seeing comments that Darnold wouldn’t have coped behind Seattle’s 2024 O-line. The point is, he won’t have to play behind it in 2025. Moves will be made next week to change things up.

Why the meltdown?

Is Geno Smith really worth it? Really?

A 35-year-old increasingly expensive quarterback who has some excellent physical qualities but also isn’t likely to take you to the promise land.

I’ve seen people talking about becoming a Raiders fan, people hammering the Seahawks, some even ridiculously claiming that Seattle’s fan base has negatively influenced John Schneider, forcing him into this decision (like he’s taking any stock of what’s said on social media in his decision making).

Let’s put it this way. If Smith is as good as some people say — why didn’t any team outbid the Raiders for his services? It would’ve been easy to do. Why is he only worth the #92 pick? Why weren’t the Titans, Giants, Browns and Jets offering more? Was there even another suitor apart from Pete Carroll’s new team?

I appreciate the people who constantly went OTT in their criticism of Smith were equally annoying and their victory laps over the last 24 hours are unpalatable. But there’s a group of media types and Seahawks Twitter contributors who seem to think any person who doesn’t agree with them on Geno Smith is an idiot. These people need to get a grip.

What happens with DK Metcalf?

I’m really intrigued to see what happens here. As I said 10 minutes into our instant reaction stream, I think yesterday’s news increases the chances he will stay. Others have said similar. Could he end up extending his contract? Will he still be traded?

This is the next big domino to fall. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens.

The Seahawks beat the Bears 6-3 on Boxing Day. It wasn’t an entertaining or festive experience. After the game, I wrote the following:

The Seahawks didn’t fire Pete Carroll to win nine games. They made that change because they thought the roster was underachieving and the changes would bring about better results. Things about the team may be different — such as the defense — and that’s good news. But the end result is virtually the same — and the team is no closer to being taken seriously as a post-season contender.

Maybe more drastic moves are needed to elevate to the next tier? Perhaps those moves will carry risk of failure? Do you need the courage to risk failing, sometimes? Rather than just going year after year with the end result being very similar?

Maybe it’s time for some risk/reward? New approach to the O-line, new offensive staff, new quarterback?

The Seahawks have a new offensive staff. They will have a new quarterback. Next week I firmly believe they’ll spend money on their offensive line. As discussed in the week, Colts guard Will Fries is the clear best fit for their blocking scheme.

That’s not to suggest this was 100% by design. The intention to replace Ryan Grubb clearly was, as was the likely internal acknowledgement that the offensive line had to be an off-season priority.

The quarterback situation was different though. A parting with Geno Smith wasn’t inevitable. They were never going to take on a $44.5m cap hit. Neither were they going to make a firm commitment financially or with term. There had to be a compromise — an arrangement that ultimately enabled the Seahawks to manage cost and retain flexibility. They wanted the ability to move on when they wanted to. That’s the nature of a bridge quarterback.

Smith wasn’t interested in that clearly. With the Raiders missing out on Matthew Stafford, an opportunity emerged. One that felt distinctly possible following Pete Carroll’s appointment in Vegas.

The Seahawks get a third round pick (#92) for Smith. The Raiders will give him the contract he desires. A win-win for all concerned, I’d suggest.

I never agreed it was impossible for the Seahawks to replace Smith this off-season. They replaced Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Wilson. They can replace Geno. It’s of some considerable relief that the endless discussion about Smith is over, at least in a Seahawks context. One side constantly claiming you’re an idiot for thinking he’s anything less than excellence personified, the other going over the top in their criticism with virtually every incomplete pass.

The reality was somewhere in the middle, which is where Smith deserves to be ranked as a quarterback in this league. He possesses highly impressive physical traits, can complete throws many wouldn’t even try and he won games for Seattle during his time as a starter. He also struggled in the red-zone, had too many turnovers and had moments of erraticism and occasionally lost his composure.

Playing behind a bad offensive line was a major hindrance. Yet he also made mistakes without excuse — including a rotten pick-six against the Rams last November. It was a back-breaking moment in a critical game. He also, too often, failed to take shots to DK Metcalf — something that irked the receiver enough to be one of the reasons why he fancied a fresh start (although let’s be right, contract talks are always king in these instances and Metcalf might want to try something new as he enters the defining years of his career).

I wrote during the season that the Seahawks might pivot to Sam Darnold. John Schneider attended his pro-day and for a brief moment he was linked to Seattle after Adam Schefter tweeted Russell Wilson’s four-team trade list in 2021. The fact he’s worked with Klint Kubiak makes it an obvious connection and Schefter tweeting that the Seahawks will be a suitor is massively telling. This is on the cards.

Darnold’s market is said to be cooler than many anticipated. Albert Breer says the Seahawks were looking at $35m a year for Geno Smith but the Smith camp wanted $45m. If Darnold is more open to a Baker Mayfield contract ($33.3m per season) that would be an obvious, more cost-effective option.

Such a deal wouldn’t make Darnold the confirmed ‘franchise quarterback’ of Seattle — although I’m sure that’s how it would be billed. In 2012 the exact same thing happened with Matt Flynn and he never played a down for the Seahawks. Adding Darnold would be the perfect foil for a dalliance in the draft. I’ve been saying it for weeks — I think this is the year John Schneider drafts a quarterback.

I’ve thought for a while he admires Quinn Ewers. Plenty of teams will be intrigued by Jaxson Dart. Will Howard definitely has fans in important places. I think many people in the league have been surprised by how much they like Tyler Shough during this draft process so far. There are also going to be teams who believe in the upside of Riley Leonard and Jalen Milroe plus the analytics of Kyle McCord.

You’re going to hear a whole bunch of stuff about this being a bad quarterback draft class. Utter bunkum. It’s not an elite class. You’re not going to get the next Jayden Daniels at #18 or #50 or anywhere in-between. Is it possible to get a player who can be your answer to Bo Nix, in a system that has been friendly to quarterbacks in the past (see: Brock Purdy)? Absolutely, yes.

I think that will be part of their thinking. My prediction is they will sign Sam Darnold and draft a quarterback within the first two rounds of the draft.

Here are some other ‘thinking out loud’ ideas…

— I wonder if a new deal for DK Metcalf is more likely now than it was before Geno Smith’s departure? Just a thought.

— Reportedly the Seahawks pitched the idea of swapping Metcalf and Smith for Maxx Crosby. The Raiders said no, emphatically. However, I wonder if — with extra stock acquired and potentially more on the way through Metcalf — whether the Seahawks would call Cincinnati about Trey Hendrickson? He’s 31 this year and wants a new deal but he does have 35 sacks in the last two seasons. Some Bengals fans think he could be available for a second round pick. I think the Seahawks are determined to add a true game-changing EDGE rusher and Myles Garrett likely won’t be available until after June 1st because of his contract (if at all). The Seahawks have the resources to make something happen with Hendrickson if they want to.

— Aside from Will Fries — do the Seahawks now have the money to aggressively go after other players? Can they compete with Chicago for Drew Dalman to properly fix their O-line? Will they look at the pass rush or safety market — where interesting options are available? If they trade Metcalf, will they make a bit of a splash at receiver? They suddenly have $60m in effective cap space (spending money) and can raise more by trading Metcalf ($10.8m) and/or re-working Uchenna Nwosu’s deal.

— I think the Seahawks deserve credit and praise for being bold. Sometimes you’ve got to have the courage to take a chance. I mentioned this the other day — there’s too much fear of change within this fan base. People didn’t want to move on from Carroll, yet 12 months on the defense improves and the team didn’t regress in the win-column. The idea of parting with Russell Wilson was too much for others. The Seattle Seahawks were not a serious contender in 2024 and haven’t been for some time. The chances are they won’t be a contender in 2025 either. Trying to get to that stage sometimes requires risk. Otherwise you just end up stuck in the middle. Nobody wants to be there — we should be grateful ownership and the front office agree with that sentiment.

If you missed our instant reaction live-stream to today’s news, check it out here:

There’s been so little said about Geno Smith’s future since the combine. No updates. No informed opinion on how close an agreement was. Just silence.

Now things are changing.

Firstly, this video from Tom Pelissero:

💻 @TomPelissero #NFLFreeAgency opens next week and the @nflnetwork insider gave us the ultimate primer to get ready — buckle up!#NFL #NEPats #DallasCowboys #FlyEaglesFly #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/SUiNBvI2Gh

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) March 7, 2025

Pelissero notes that in the next 72 hours, there are a lot of dominos to fall regarding quarterbacks in the league. He noted the contract negotiations between Seattle and Smith were ongoing and pondered whether the offer the Seahawks are making is to Smith’s liking.

It was always going to come down to compromise. Is he willing to work with the Seahawks on a deal that suits both parties? Potentially giving him more money in his pocket this year, lowering his cap hit and giving the Seahawks the flexibility to move on at the end of every season?

I would suggest this is the sticking point. The reason it’s now Friday and this hasn’t been resolved is because, at the moment at least, they can’t reach that compromise. I’m guessing we’re now approaching a pivotal weekend. Either an arrangement will be agreed, or there’s going to be a parting of ways.

Meanwhile, Dianna Russini tweeted this:

The Las Vegas Raiders are exploring veteran quarterback options on the free agent and trade market, per sources.

That includes the possibility of trading for a current starting QB.

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) March 7, 2025

Vincent Bonsignore from the Las Vegas Review-Journal tweeted this:

If the @Raiders do go down the trade route for a veteran QB for 2025, Geno Smith makes a lot of sense. Keep an eye on that one.

— Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) March 7, 2025

And Charles Robinson from Yahoo Sports reported the following:

Two league sources believe there is a possibility that the Las Vegas Raiders could pursue a trade for Seahawks QB Geno Smith after striking out on Stafford. That would reunite Smith with Raiders head coach Pete Carroll and open up a quarterback slot in Seattle, potentially putting Darnold in play for the Seahawks.

It’s an intriguing scenario that comes out of two developments: First, the Raiders missing on Stafford and then having reportedly soft interest in Darnold; and second, NFL teams now operating with the knowledge that Darnold wasn’t tagged and will indeed be an unencumbered free agent. That latter point is important, because it’s possible that some teams didn’t have legitimate interest in Darnold until they knew he was actually going to hit free agency. Now that he’s a real option on the table, it could lead a team like Seattle or another unknown club to reassess its own quarterback room … and potentially make a player available for calls.

A picture is starting to emerge. Either the Seahawks and Geno Smith will find their compromise or he’ll end up in Las Vegas — with Seattle moving on to another quarterback, potentially Sam Darnold. A player, lest we forget, who worked with Klint Kubiak in San Francisco in 2023.

There’s also another angle to this. If Smith ends up in Vegas, I’d suggest that puts to bed any possibility DK Metcalf goes there too. I do not see the quarterback and receiver reuniting there or anywhere else.

At the moment, many people consider Vegas to be Metcalf’s most likely destination. If he goes there, then it will be the surest sign — in my opinion — that the Seahawks are going to find common ground with Smith. If Metcalf goes elsewhere, all bets are off. That’s my reading of the situation.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jeremiah says “Everybody in the league thinks that DK Metcalf is going to New England.”

It’s worth remembering that three years ago Jeremiah also said the following:

“In talking to friends around the league, the expectation from every single one of them is that when it’s all said and done, Deshaun Watson is going to be the quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks.”

Metcalf himself has already said he has no interest in living in Boston so I’m not sure how likely this is. However, he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. The Patriots need a #1 receiver. They possess two third round picks. An offer worth #38 and #77 could get it done. Metcalf wouldn’t have any choice — and the Pats have the most cap space in the NFL ($117m) to help persuade him that a move to New England can be worthwhile.

I made my thoughts clear yesterday. I’d move on from both. The financial saving is massive and will enable the Seahawks to address their offensive line next week. I think the quarterback class contains players who can start quickly, especially now you have an offensive coordinator who comes from a system that has enabled Brock Purdy to thrive early in his career. We even saw some positive moments from Spencer Rattler in New Orleans last season, considering the incredible number of injuries the Saints had on offense.

John Schneider mentioned on Seattle Sports yesterday there were a couple of quarterbacks who performed well enough at the combine to warrant further scouting and research. My guess is one of those two players might be Tyler Shough at Louisville. Not because they’ve not done initials checks and grading — but because he’s suddenly much more intriguing than most people thought initially.

I’ll also remind people that this time last year, there wasn’t any conviction that Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix would go in round one — let alone the top-12. Nix ended the season as a rookie of the year candidate.

I don’t think Smith is noticeably better than Sam Darnold. If Darnold’s market is weaker than he expected, I think you have to consider him too — perhaps in competition with a rookie.

I think there are also receivers in this draft who can be developed to become effective pieces within this scheme.

I’m even more convinced this is the right thing to do 24 hours on. If Metcalf wants out, so be it. If Smith wants a big financial and term commitment, let someone else give it to him.

Trade DK Metcalf. Trade Geno Smith.

I would seriously consider it.

A fresh start. Move on. A new direction for this team.

I think it’s time for this to be a serious consideration. Metcalf has made his feelings known and it appears it’s a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ he is dealt. Smith is yet to agree terms on a new contract, with a March 16th deadline looming when a $10m roster bonus triggers.

I suspect at least some of the motivation for Metcalf’s trade request is due to the relationship between quarterback and receiver not being ‘great’. You only need to listen to Hugh Millen’s tape assessments. He’ll frequently break down in detail the number of times Metcalf was open and not thrown to. I would imagine that led to a degree of frustration, perhaps adding to other issues, and I’m not sure Metcalf and Smith saw eye to eye. Call this an educated guess. It doesn’t necessarily mean this was the defining factor in the request — contract negotiations are always king at the end of the day. I would imagine it played a part, though.

Moving on from both will be somewhat risky but I don’t think the Seahawks are knocking on the door of contention anyway. I feel more confident writing this after the combine. There are quarterbacks in this draft who can be competitive starters in the league. Perhaps not ‘elite’ players — but certainly competitive.

You would need a new bridge. You don’t go into the draft with only Sam Howell on the roster.

Numerous reporters are noting a modest market for Sam Darnold. He has familiarity with Klint Kubiak from their time in San Francisco together. I would consider pivoting to him, especially if he is suddenly available on a far more reasonable contract than many thought at the end of the 2024 season.

I would also consider putting faith in your system. The Shanahan scheme has produced results with a type of quarterback. Including, it has to be said, young players. Look at Brock Purdy for example. I think you can create a pathway that enables the team to set up a bright future with a cheap placeholder on the roster as a draft hedge, before selecting the future at the position.

Some people will read this and recoil in horror. Seahawks fans typically don’t like change. They often never want players to leave. There’s a comfort zone and a fear of worst case scenarios. We saw it with Pete Carroll. Yet 12 months on from his departure, we already see a rapidly improved defense and a win-loss record that was actually improved (and could’ve been better).

We also saw it with Russell Wilson before his trade to Denver. Yet his backup, Geno Smith, stepped into the starting role and replaced him.

The defense moved on from the old guard and showed signs of life. It might be time to do the same on offense. Create a young, vibrant unit. Accept the prospect of growing pains. Play the longer game.

It’s not a plan to ‘tank’ or any nonsense like that. It’s about plotting a new course with the intention of building into a contender. The aim is to win in 2025, while appreciating the serious contending might be more likely in the future.

The fact that the Smith negotiation is still ongoing days after the combine, without resolution, perhaps speaks to his intention to gain a level of commitment from the Seahawks that they’re just not comfortable with. If you can retain him on a modest, flexible deal then it’s understandable. Smith is not leading you to where you want to go though. Despite what Mike Macdonald said during interviews recently, I’m not sure anyone truly believes Smith is ‘the guy’.

Let someone else make that commitment. See what the likes of Las Vegas are willing to offer. Or Tennessee. Or the Giants. Or Cleveland.

Likewise, I think Metcalf desires a fresh start and should be granted one. Get the best deal you can — preferably including a top-40 pick as part of any package.

These moves would not only bolster your draft stock, you’d save $31.9m in cap space. Added to what’s already available in effective cap space (spending money) you’d have a $60m war-chest for free agency. That’s more than enough to go and land someone like Will Fries, who as we’ve been noting is the best fit for Seattle’s blocking scheme in free agency, and perhaps challenge the Bears for Drew Dalman (they appear to be the frontrunners for his signature).

You’d also have the money to land a replacement veteran quarterback — whether it’s someone more expensive like Darnold or a cheaper alternative.

Armed with multiple top-100 picks, you could inject cost-effective talent onto the roster. It is a deep class, making up for a lack of blue-chippers at the top end.

More importantly, I’m starting to think there are quarterbacks in the draft who can start for you sooner rather than later. I think, for example, Tyler Shough could do that job. I found it interesting that Todd McShay has moved him up to #30 on his board, just behind Jaxson Dart. Either player could potentially start for you and maybe, just maybe, emulate some of what we saw from Bo Nix as a rookie. As with Nix in Denver, I think you have the offensive system to guide a player early in his career.

I was incredibly impressed with Shough’s attitude during combine interviews, the way he embraced the situation and delivered an excellent performance. He has the tools and the mentality, I think, to start quickly. I have a hunch that Sean McVay might like him enough to take in round one as the heir apparent to Matthew Stafford in 2026.

As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, there’s a decent chunk of analytical data working in Dart’s favour too.

We’ve seen how a young quarterback can energise a franchise in Washington and Denver. The fans in Chicago are certainly buzzing about their prospects under Ben Johnson — and Michael Penix Jr flashed a bit at the end of last season. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you can do this too, with this class of quarterbacks. With a system that is friendly to quarterbacks.

The upside of this situation is enormous. It completely opens up your cap so that you can invest in the trenches and you can build an excitement around the team that is currently absent.

Other quarterbacks, like Quinn Ewers and Will Howard (and certainly Jalen Milroe and Riley Leonard) will need time and development. They could also be possibilities if you did sign a more capable veteran starter.

On the 27th December I wrote about the Seahawks needing a disruptive off-season. I spoke about the challenge of Metcalf’s future, the need for a new offensive coordinator, a rebuild of the O-line and whether they should move on from Geno Smith.

Here’s a passage from that article:

The Seahawks didn’t fire Pete Carroll to win nine games. They made that change because they thought the roster was underachieving and the changes would bring about better results. Things about the team may be different — such as the defense — and that’s good news. But the end result is virtually the same — and the team is no closer to being taken seriously as a post-season contender.

Maybe more drastic moves are needed to elevate to the next tier? Perhaps those moves will carry risk of failure? Do you need the courage to risk failing, sometimes? Rather than just going year after year with the end result being very similar?

Maybe it’s time for some risk/reward? New approach to the O-line, new offensive staff, new quarterback?

They replaced Ryan Grubb. Metcalf’s on the trade block. Next week, I’m certain they will be in the mix to sign free agents to fix the offensive line (they have no choice). I believe it’s also time to think about Smith’s future.

The disruptive off-season they needed is happening. Now it’s time to see it through to its fullest conclusion.

Thoughts on the potential trade compensation for DK Metcalf

Reportedly the Seahawks want a first rounder and a third rounder. I think it’s more a case of a top-45 pick and a third rounder.

Not all first round picks are the same. The difference between Buffalo’s first round selection (#30) and Las Vegas’ second rounder (#37) is seven picks. Would you take #37 and one of the Raiders’ two third rounders (#68 or #73) for Metcalf? I’m guessing most people could live with that.

A viable range of compensation starts with the Steelers at #21 and stretches to the Cowboys at #44. Anything in that ball-park feels like a win. The later you pick, the better the additional stock should be. If the Packers were willing to offer #23, you might not get anything else. If it’s the Cowboys at #44, you’d absolutely expect a third rounder to be thrown in, or at least a fourth plus a later pick.

This feels reasonable given the comparable trade offers made to other player as noted by Brian Nemhauser here and here.

If the likes of Green Bay are only willing to part with a second rounder, which would mean receiving the 54th pick, you’re going to need more than that. Preferably a third rounder and a player. I’d want tight end Luke Musgrave ahead of any of their receivers.

This would be a hard sell, although one I think fans could reason with just to be able to move on. The Seahawks can’t just give Metcalf away. They have to hope teams — and owners — will fall for the idea of adding a big name, physically unique player who is very capable of putting up very good numbers even during a relative down season as he had in 2024.

The fear is this drags on for weeks and becomes a saga. The Seahawks benefit from a quick deal so they can use the $10.8m cap space they’d create by doing a deal. Hopefully a market is being established as we speak. The quicker this is done the better.

Why is a first rounder important to the Seahawks?

Since the combine I’ve just had this feeling that the quarterbacks are going to go earlier than people think. In my latest mock draft I had five going in the top-52. I might need to have a re-think and push them up the board.

It seems like some teams, facing a draft class without a lot of true blue-chippers, might be inclined to take a quarterback very early. That’s why we might see Cam Ward go first overall despite not having a first round grade by many (any?) teams. It’s why Cleveland might take Shedeur Sanders (or someone else) at #2. Mike Sando published a speculative top-10 according to league execs. They had Ward first, Sanders second and Jaxson Dart at #7 to the Jets.

I don’t think it’s preposterous. Again, this isn’t a class littered with ‘can’t miss’ players. I also think this is a quarterback class that might be receiving more love in draft rooms than the internet.

Let’s suppose we do see three quarterbacks go in the top-10. I’m not sure we’ll have to wait that long to see others leave the board.

Pittsburgh don’t have a long term solution. The Rams are going year-to-year with Matthew Stafford. Tennessee at #35 could be in the market as could Las Vegas at #37 and New Orleans at #40.

Yes, the Seahawks could be in the market too. Whether that’s at #18 — or an additional pick acquired slightly later in a Metcalf trade.

A lot of people aren’t going to like this thought but there are quarterbacks in this draft that will carry intrigue. Quinn Ewers, Tyler Shough and Will Howard in particular will have supporters in several draft rooms.

It wasn’t immediately obvious this time last year that Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix would be first round picks. It was only after the combine that a general consensus emerged that JJ McCarthy would go in the top-15. His character and leadership clearly played a big part in that. I don’t think Ewers, Shough or Howard will go that early and possibly (probably?) won’t go in the first round at all. I’m not sure they’ll last to #50 though.

The Seahawks might be eyeing a pick between #21-44, acquired in a Metcalf trade, for the intention of making sure they can get the quarterback they want without necessarily having to use the 18th pick.

Geno Smith’s future adds a further layer of intrigue

We’re now four days removed from the combine and there’s been no news. A wall of silence.

Neither party leaking any information likely means both sides are still working together to get things done. A good sign. But with every passing day you move closer to the deadline John Schneider claimed didn’t exist. Five days into the new league year he’ll be due a $10m roster bonus.

During a very interesting segment on Puck Sports earlier today, Mike Garafolo left the door open for a potential parting of ways. He did say it was more likely than not that Smith remains in Seattle. It was hardly, however, a no-brainer.

Garafolo said one team had called the Seahawks about a trade. He also mentioned there’s a list of quarterbacks the Seahawks would target if they dealt Smith, including Sam Darnold. Interestingly Garafolo is the latest reporter to hint at a weaker than expected market for Darnold who might now have to settle for a ‘prove-it’ arrangement in Minnesota.

Either way, you get a real sense here that the Seahawks are not ready to commit major money and term to Smith — thus the idea of drafting a future potential replacement becomes increasingly likely. If they move on, it would ramp up big time.

I can easily imagine the team having interest in this class. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility they’ll draft a quarterback earlier than expected. It might be something to prepare yourself for mentality. Some will be all for it, others will hate the idea.

It might need to be earlier in the draft than most anticipated. The middle-class could end up being a bunch of top-50 picks.

Would the Seahawks seriously draft Shough, Ewers or Howard in the top-50?

I think it’d be foolish to rule it out. None of them are flawless players. All of them have reasons to believe they are worth investing in.

I’ll go in reverse order. Howard’s 97.4 QBR score in the four Ohio State playoff games is remarkable. He helped the Buckeye’s to a 50% third-down conversion rate in those games too. He was clutch when the team needed him in the big moments.

Howard did all of this after suffering the most devastating setback imaginable losing to Michigan. Rather than view that loss as a reason to knock Howard, I think most teams will admire his reaction. He elevated his game after that loss and won a Championship.

Furthermore, if you are going to win a Super Bowl without a Patrick Mahomes type under center, you need a QB who can deliver in the big moments. Howard showed in the playoff games he can do that.

He wasn’t just the beneficiary of a loaded Ohio State team either. He contributed big-time throws on third down. He previously won the BIG-12 with Kansas State, one of only three conference titles for the Wildcats since the turn of the century.

Some GM’s and some coaches will happily say — I want this guy on our team.

Been watching the last 4 games for top NFLDraft QBs & Will Howard had the BEST 4 game stretch of any QB I’ve watched so far – and it really wasn’t even that close!! Great throws, consistent accuracy, downfield throws, good reads, multiple concepts, etc…

— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) March 6, 2025

Now onto Ewers. Sometimes you have to think like the teams and not let your own personal biases get in the way. This is a player the NFL has been waiting for. He was a child-prodigy, tipped for the very top at an early age. I’ve watched him throw during recruiting camps. Very few teenagers throw a football like Ewers did at that age.

He has shown flashes at Texas, such as the Alabama game in 2023. The team made two semi-finals with Ewers under center, something they haven’t achieved in a long time. I wouldn’t assume they’ll be better with Arch Manning playing next year.

The injuries clearly are a problem. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy. When he was healthy though, the data is good. In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. His QBR average in Texas’ three playoff games was an impressive 82.7.

Some teams will think — this guy has talent. The league’s been waiting for him. Yes the injuries are a worry — but if they weren’t we might not have a chance to draft him. Let’s roll the dice. His combine throwing session was a good reminder of how natural he is as a passer.

The concerns don’t end with just the injuries. His consistency and occasional inability to come off his primary read, plus some mechanical throwing issues with his footwork, also need to be raised.

Several quarterbacks came into the league as rough diamonds though. I think some may view Ewers through that lens. I think the Seahawks could be one of those teams, particularly given he’s been working with Schneider’s close friend Mike McCarthy.

Then there’s Shough. The tape is what it is — a mix of really good and some bad. His injury history is a thing and so is his age. I like him though. I like his attitude, his mentality, his personality, his frame, his arm, his athleticism. There’s something here. I can imagine Sean McVay liking him enough to take at #26. I think there’s a starting NFL quarterback here. Maybe not an elite one — but one who can win plenty of football games with the right support.

We’re talking about three individuals with high character, who’ve been through adversity and they all have some traits. Not elite traits but they’re not low-level physical prospects.

I even think we’ll see Riley Leonard and possibly Jalen Milroe taken earlier than many project.

It’s just something to store in the back of your mind. Don’t be surprised if we start to see the quarterbacks being bumped up in mock drafts.

This is both an opportunity for the Seahawks and a situation that could put real pressure on GM John Schneider.

Let’s start with the opportunity.

For a long time now — too long, arguably — the Seahawks have talked about a desire to create a certain type of football team. They want to win in the trenches, run the football, play great defense. What they actually produced was a roster almost entirely reliant on finesse — quarterbacks and receivers — with little in the way of defensive quality or any degree of competency up front.

A shift has certainly occurred on defense. Last year they gradually turned into a much better unit under Mike Macdonald. The defensive line in particular produced results. There were promising signs.

The offense however was a disaster. The running game was as bad as it’s ever been, flailing behind an offensive line totally incapable of protecting the quarterback or creating running lanes. Whether it was talent, scheme or execution — nothing worked.

It’s clear for all to see that changes were necessary. A new offensive staff has been installed but everyone — the coaches, the fans, probably the owners too — need to see additions. Having adequately upgraded the D-line over the last couple of years, now it’s time to do the same with the O-line.

They have about $29m in effective cap space to spend. Trading DK Metcalf adds $10.8m more to the kitty. They have a fortune available in 2026 to tap into. They will add significantly more if they also re-sign Geno Smith to an extension. They’ll have the funds to be players in free agency. They need to go out and land a key addition. It needs to be done.

As I wrote earlier, the #1 priority should be Will Fries of the Indianapolis Colts. They should also be in the mix for Drew Dalman. It might be an either/or situation with these two players — but if you’re serious about fixing your offensive line, sometimes you’ve just got to make things happen.

Trading Metcalf would also produce further draft stock to aid your O-line upgrade.

This is a big opportunity to finally be a trenches-based team. To further shift resources, as they have been doing, away from positions like receiver, safety and linebacker and put most of your investment in the lines.

Yes, you can still go out and re-sign Ernest Jones. You’ll also need to replace Metcalf. It’s not about ignoring other positions. However, not paying a receiver $30m a year, adding stock and reinforcing your lines is the only way to become the team you say you want to be.

Now on to the challenge facing Schneider and the pressure he will face.

Fans have grown weary of Seattle’s ongoing problems with the offensive line and the excuses, rather than ownership, for not creating a better line. Even the most compelling excuse will fall on deaf ears if solutions are not found. The Seahawks simply have to find them this off-season.

If they fail in free agency next week, when the better linemen are available, there’s a danger things become toxic. Questions will be rightly asked about Schneider’s ability to fix the problem and whether he’s the right man to drive this thing forwards. Having to get a great deal for DK Metcalf at the same time is a heck of a proposition.

The optics of whiffing in free agency and then getting a lesser deal for Metcalf could be defining. Let’s not forget the team still faces uncertainty with Geno Smith’s contract too.

Alternatively, get at least a reasonable haul for Metcalf and sign one or two key additions for your offensive line next week and this could start to feel like a transformational off-season. The first steps towards crafting the vision Mike Macdonald has laid out.

It’s a huge week for the Seahawks. Potentially, a defining week.

The only team to be linked to Metcalf so far is the Chargers, which isn’t a good sign. A robust market will be required to get great value in a trade.

It’s difficult to work out what a good deal looks like. Ideally it’s a first round pick for a player who is still young (27), is physically unique and has name-recognition working in his favour. Any owner or GM wanting (or needing) to make a splash can do so here.

There are also teams badly in need of a top receiver picking at the top of round two. That said, Metcalf has seemingly made it clear he would prefer to go to a contender. Of course, that’s not his choice. He doesn’t have a no-trade clause.

I would be hesitant to do a deal that doesn’t include, as a starting point, a pick between #21 and #45. The later you go into round two, the more you would require as extras.

Gaining one or two more picks in the top-100 of this draft would be a good return. What it lacks in clear blue-chip talent early on, this class makes up for in depth.

There are also good receivers available so replacing Metcalf is possible. Keep an eye on Emeka Egbuka. He is a huge Seahawks fan from Tacoma but also a highly respected, mature leader. He’s all business and exactly the type of player who fits the Kubiak system and the character profile Seattle is looking for. He would need to be a high pick. I do think he’s a more likely high-pick target for this team specifically than the others touted for the top-40. The Seahawks have a clearly defined ‘type’ of person they want to draft and Egbuka fits the bill.

Jaylin Noel and Jack Bech would be two excellent options in round two while Tai Felton, Jayden Higgins, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams and Jaylin Lane (among others) could appeal.

An extra high pick, particularly if it’s between #21-45, could also position the Seahawks to get their ‘pick of the bunch’ at quarterback if they’re so inclined, without having to wait to #50. I do think we could see a rush on the position at some point in the second round. They might not want to leave things to chance in the second half of round two.

Alternatively you can just keep adding good players. Yesterday I mocked Donovan Ezeiruaku at #18 to the Seahawks because he very much fits their preferred profile. Acquiring the best possible talent has worked for Seattle in recent years. They’ll feel very comfortable doing that again, provided they can address their O-line need next week.

They could add receivers in free agency too. Earlier today I touted Elijah Moore as a reclamation project, while Marquez Valdez-Scantling played well for Kubiak in New Orleans. Dyami Brown could be an interesting name to watch. Ditto Josh Palmer.

The immediate priority though is the O-line, remaking the identity of the team and coming out of the developing Metcalf saga with a good deal.

Over to you, John.

We’ll do a live stream at 3pm PT to discuss this further.

Joe Thuney is going to Chicago

According to Ian Rapoport, the Chiefs are trading the 32-year-old to the Bears. The compensation is only a 2026 fourth rounder.

For the last few weeks I’ve been pitching creative ideas to try and acquire Thuney, a proven performer who can add much needed experience at left guard (his natural fit after spelling at left tackle in 2024, including during a difficult Super Bowl performance).

It seems as if not much creativity was needed. The compensation is minuscule. After tagging Trey Smith, the Chiefs clearly want to save money. After all, they drafted Kingsley Suamataia in round two a year ago and he isn’t the answer at tackle but could replace Thuney at guard.

Thuney had a 79.1 grade in zone last season. It’s worth noting his grade in 2023 was only a 66.8. Therefore, he might not have been an ideal fit. He would’ve cost the Seahawks $15.5m in cap space to acquire, although they could’ve extended his contract to lower that number.

Not acquiring Thuney is understandable if they make other moves next week. Failing to land free agents and watching him go to Chicago at a bargain price, however, will be frustrating. It’s absolutely critical the Seahawks get the job done of improving their O-line this off-season. There will be growing external pressure on GM John Schneider if he fails to deliver. Other teams are showing it is possible to reshape a line in a way that appears effective.

On a positive note, the Bears acquiring Thuney and Jonah Jackson could take them out of the O-line market next week. A potential benefit for the Seahawks if they’re eyeing younger, better players.

Will Fries is really, really good

Wow. I can’t say I knew much about Fries until this week. I watched his tape and was blown away. He is an ideal fit for the zone blocking scheme.

Every box is ticked. He’s a tremendous combo blocker, he reaches up to the second level with ease and he understands how to use his awareness to open running lanes. Furthermore, he’s an absolute monster finisher — levelling opponents when he gets any opportunity.

The only downside is his tall frame (6-6) sometimes creates an issue with leverage. That’s it. He had a 91.2 zone blocking grade last year, he ran a 4.51 shuttle at his pro-day and he’s explosive (3.10 TEF). He turns 27 next month.

For several weeks we’ve talked about Drew Dalman as an ideal addition this off-season. I think Fries is an even better option. He legitimately has the potential to become a top guard in the league. He’s not tied to the right guard spot either, having played multiple positions in college. I think he can probably kick over to the left in a pinch.

If they land Fries, this will be a huge move for the Seahawks and exactly the kind of investment required to deliver the transformational off-season they need. For me, he should be the top target.

Drew Dalman is still a good option

None of the above is a negative review of Dalman. He would still be a fantastic fit for the Seahawks. He is a legit top-five center in the league with an 86.6 average zone blocking grade over the last two seasons. He ran a 4.51 short shuttle at his pro-day and he’s extremely explosive (3.31 TEF). He turns 27 in October.

Both Dalman and Fries are at a perfect age, have outstanding physical profiles and they’re proven performers in the NFL. The only problem is, a terribly weak center draft class could drive Dalman’s market into an unpalatable range — with rumours during the combine that he could earn $20m a year.

On the other hand, Tom Pelissero is projecting a contract worth $13-14m a year in this article. I suspect, given the rapid increase in the O-line market, that we might see Fries and Dalman both paid more than that.

If there was ever a time to shock the NFL and land both players, this is it. In reality, it’s likely a one-or-the-other situation — and Fries coming off a broken leg might mean his salary range is more modest.

If they both ended up in the $13-14m range Pelissero is suggesting for Dalman, I would gamble on going higher to make sure they come to Seattle. My guess is Dalman ends up in Chicago too.

What if they can’t get Dalman?

I would pivot to Ryan Kelly. It’s not ideal because he’s an ageing player who has missed time. However, the Seahawks need experience up front. Furthermore, if you were able to pair him with Fries, the two players have played together in Indianapolis and have built-in chemistry.

Kelly’s only a year removed from recording a very respectable 75.4 zone blocking grade in 2023. He’d be the perfect player to help steer the offensive line, handling the protection calls in Kubiak’s system. It would also give the Seahawks an opportunity to further develop Jalen Sundell, who they appear to rate. Olu Oluwatimi hasn’t graded well in zone either at Michigan or in Seattle. It feels like they need to add a center and if Dalman is too pricey, this is the next best option unless some like Garret Bradbury is cut by the Vikings.

The one O-liner I’m wary of

In his article, Pelissero predicts Aaron Banks could match Robert Hunt’s $20m a year. The 28-year-old has never had a PFF grade higher than 65.4. His zone blocking grade at Notre Dame was good but it hasn’t been in the NFL.

You’re left thinking — if you can’t succeed playing for Kyle Shanahan while lining up next to Trent Williams, why are you going to be better here? I liked him coming into the league but watching his NFL film, there’s very little to get excited about. The only saving grace is he’s familiar with the scheme.

It’s imperative the Seahawks find solutions and enter the draft believing they don’t have to try and find starting offensive linemen. Christian Haynes’ near-90 grade as a zone blocker at UConn suggests there might still be hope for him in this scheme. Believe it or not, Anthony Bradford also graded well in zone at LSU.

Seeing the Bears make the moves they are to rebuild their O-line will leave Seahawks fans envious. This is what Seattle has been crying out for. Make no mistake, next week is a pivotal one for Schneider. They can no longer be left on the outside looking in for offensive linemen, hoping to find solutions in the bargain bin.

A player in the draft to note

Logan Brown the Kansas offensive lineman has an almost identical profile to Fries. They’re both 6-6, both have +10-inch hands, both ran a 4.51 short shuttle, both played tackle in college and Brown’s TEF is 3.08 compared to Fries’ 3.10. His zone blocking grade (85.2) is better than Grey Zabel’s.

I’m noting this because if they don’t land Fries, Brown could be a priority target in the draft. I’m grading him in round three. Or alternatively, they could draft Brown and use him as a swing tackle as a rookie, with the idea he might compete at guard. He’s definitely a name to watch.

However, there is one thing to note. Brown was kicked off the team in Wisconsin for hitting a team mate. He doesn’t come across as a bad person and it might’ve been an isolated incident. The Seahawks are big on character though, so they’ll no doubt be doing their homework on that if they like Brown’s tape.

The other position I’d look at in free agency

It’s safety. There are some good options available and the market has stalled at the position, potentially creating value opportunities to replace Rayshawn Jenkins with a significant upgrade.

I would look at these players:

Tre’von Moehrig (S, Raiders)
Justin Reid (S, Chiefs)
Talanoa Hufanga (S, 49ers)
Julian Blackmon (S, Colts)
Jeremy Chinn (S, Commanders)

The objective here is not to prioritise this group. The offensive line has to be the key. If the safeties aren’t getting the market they hoped for, though, then it’s an opportunity to strike. Pelissero is suggesting $12m a year for Moehrig, which seems reasonable.

There are three other players I’ll mention.

Brandon Stephens played his best football under Mike Macdonald in Baltimore. He regressed after Macdonald’s departure. Could he be a buy-low prove-it target to add depth and competition at cornerback?

It hasn’t worked out for former second round pick Elijah Moore in New York with the Jets or in Cleveland. There might be a reason for that. He’s still only 24 and I remember being really high on him ahead of the 2021 draft. He could be an interesting reclamation project.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling had an electrifying spell in New Orleans last season, recording 347 yards and four touchdowns in five games. He still has the potential to run deep and make big plays. Is he worth bringing in to see if he can do it again for Kubiak in a different city?

On top of any additions this off-season, I would also work to re-sign Ernest Jones Jr and Jarran Reed as two key priorities. Expect news of Tyler Lockett’s departure and a Geno Smith extension in the near future, as the Seahawks work to create the cap space to have the kind of off-season required to kick them on to the next level.

A quick scene-set. In this projection, the Seahawks sign Will Fries in free agency as their significant addition to the offensive line and one other, less expensive O-line addition. That could be Ryan Kelly, who played with Fries in Indianapolis. I also have them tapping into a good safety market to replace Rayshawn Jenkins and making key moves to re-sign Ernest Jones Jr and Jarran Reed.

Round one

#1 NY Giants (v/TEN) — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
The Giants, with a GM and Head Coach in desperation mode, trade up to the #1 overall pick using their 2026 first rounder. They select Ward, a player I think deserves a second round grade but is being elevated in an atrocious draft for blue-chip talent at the top-end. As you’ll see in this mock, the top-10 is littered with players who would typically go later.

#2 Cleveland — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
With question marks surrounding Myles Garrett’s future, the Browns take Abdul Carter. Financially it’s challenging for the Browns to trade Garrett before June 1st. If they do it, it’ll likely be for an obscene package of picks in 2026 and 2027. That could enable the Browns to be aggressive in the quarterback market next year, while adding a placeholder (Kirk Cousins) for this season.

#3 Tennessee (v/NYG) — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
The Titans move down and acquire an extra first for next year. I get the sense they appreciate the need to build, not just go through an endless young quarterback cycle. This projection considers that situation and has Tennessee building — starting with Hunter.

#4 New England — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The Patriots could be big spenders in free agency to try and repair their offensive line. Tyler Warren was Drew Allar’s #1 target — a playmaker and a safety valve. Giving Drake Maye a fantastic, reliable weapon like this could be the making of him — provided they add O-liners in free agency. You have to believe they will.

#5 Jacksonville — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
Jaguars Head Coach Liam Coen virtually put a ‘for sale’ sign on this pick during his combine appearance on the NFL Network. There simply aren’t enough blue-chip players in this class to want to stay in this spot. The draft could become highly unpredictable from this point onwards. So when all else fails, take a plug-in-and-play offensive lineman. Membou could immediately replace the departing Brandon Scherff.

#6 Las Vegas — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Jeanty is pound-for-pound the best player in the draft. Putting him on the field with Brock Bowers will make the Raiders more interesting in 2025. Especially if they can get a quarterback later on.

#7 NY Jets — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
The likes of Todd McShay and Albert Breer have reported how much the league is buzzing about Booker post-combine, with McShay stating he’ll go earlier than people think. He is a completely safe pick and again, in a class without a lot of blue-chip talent, that’ll count for something. Booker can help to establish a Lions-esque presence up front for Aaron Glenn, with Alijah Vera-Tucker moving to right tackle.

#8 Carolina — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
I’ve been saying it for months — Loveland will be graded way higher than the internet is suggesting. It’s now being reported by several known pundits that he won’t get out of the top-15. He will be seen as one of the few genuine first round talents in the class. He can become Bryce Young’s go-to target.

#9 New Orleans — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
Walker is a lesser version of Abdul Carter. He can start right away and he has A++ character traits. The Saints need to re-energise their defense and Walker can help do that with immediate impact not only as a tone-setting linebacker but also as a pass-rusher.

#10 Chicago — Will Campbell (T, LSU)
Having 32.5-inch arms is a concern and I’m not convinced at all that he can kick inside to guard with his height and playing style, which lacks aggression. Also, his tape wasn’t as good as some are making out in 2024, just ask the LSU fans. However, high-end athletic traits could keep Campbell in the top-10 and the Bears are rebuilding their offensive line after trading for Jonah Jackson today.

#11 San Francisco — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
Weighing at about 295lbs with only 32-inch arms is a concern. He didn’t do any testing at the combine either. Even so, you get the sense the 49ers will prioritise rebuilding their defensive line and he has good tape.

#12 Dallas — Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina)
There’s a growing buzz that Hampton could go as high as this and that some teams grade him in a similar range to Jeanty.

#13 Miami — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
He’s such a playmaker and his character’s off the charts. Barron can play in the slot or outside, he plays with physicality and running a 4.39 is the icing on the cake. The most impressive thing in 2024 was seeing how much he attacked defending the run. He could go in the top-10.

#14 Indianapolis — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
The Colts badly need an upgrade at cornerback and Johnson’s talent is being overshadowed by an injury plagued 2024 season.

#15 Atlanta — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
Campbell’s stock is going through the roof and it’s not a surprise. He’s a punishing tackler, a great athlete and he can play in multiple spots including rushing the passer. He’s a potential game-changer for a defense needing a major upgrade.

#16 Arizona — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Apparently there are mixed views on Williams and it’s easy to understand why. There’s a noticeable difference in his upper body size compared to some of the other bigger defensive ends. He’s also struggled to stay healthy and consistent. That could keep him on the board longer than this.

#17 Cincinnati — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
The character concerns will need to be investigated by all teams but if there’s one franchise typically willing to turn a blind eye it’s the Bengals.

#18 Seattle — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
He is exactly the type of player the Seahawks have been drafting early over the last few years. Ezeiruaku has exceptional football character, production (16.5 sacks in 2024 plus the joint most pressures during the regular season), he ran a brilliant 4.19 shuttle (in his weight-range of 245-260lbs, only 15 rushers have run a faster time in combine history) and his run defense is really good for a player of his size (tied first for run-stop responsibility percentage). Mike Macdonald seems to like to have four rush options based on his time in Baltimore and Seattle. Ezeiruaku could be a prolific sack-collector in his system.

#19 Tampa Bay — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
His physical profile is enticing but his tape is a mix of exciting and baffling. The elite players with his physical profile produced an average of 25 sacks in college. He only produced 4.5. Teams will be wary about that.

#20 Denver — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
Apparently Sean Payton is after an X-factor weapon, someone who can do the Alvin Kamara job. He could wait until day two to scratch this itch but Henderson could be really good in Denver.

#21 Pittsburgh — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
Everyone knew Emmanwori was a top athlete and I think some mocks are counting it twice after he ran and jumped well at the combine. He’s a good player — but I’m not convinced he’s a top-15 pick.

#22 LA Chargers — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
Jim Harbaugh is a trenches man. He’s going to draft for the trenches. He worked with Grant and will know what he’s all about.

#23 Green Bay — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
The Packers are under a lot of pressure to find a #1 receiver and they might be forced to use a bit more urgency to address that need in the draft by using a first round pick on the best one available. If they did trade for DK Metcalf this could be a spot for the Seahawks to take Grey Zabel.

#24 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
The Vikings could use an interior defender with upside. There are questions about Nolen’s attitude but the Vikings have occasionally taken a chance on athletic potential. He’s a former #1 overall High-School recruit.

#25 Houston — Grey Zabel (G/C, North Dakota State)
His tape is excellent and he just jumped a 36.5-inch vertical. It’s time to take Zabel seriously as a first round pick.

#26 LA Rams — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
With Cooper Kupp set to move on the Rams add a replacement weapon for the returning Matthew Stafford.

#27 Baltimore — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
The Ravens need a safety and have a knack of capitalising when players drop into range. His play fell off a cliff in the second half of the season but I thought he looked very good during combine drills.

#28 Detroit — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
The Lions can afford to let the board come to them and take the best players available, which in this instance is Luther Burden — who, like Stefon Diggs — could play his best football at the next level.

#29 Washington — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
The Commanders could do with refreshing and bolstering their trenches.

#30 Buffalo — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
The Amari Cooper experiment didn’t really work but Egbuka could end up being a version of the younger Cooper, as a reliable chain-moving target.

#31 Kansas City — Kelvin Banks Jr (T, Texas)
I think he’s best suited to playing right tackle but the Chiefs’ need on the left means they’ll probably try him there first.

#32 Philadelphia — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
If there’s ever a team prepared to plan ahead at certain positions and think about the future, it’s the Eagles. They take Simmons and give him the chance to fully recover from his injury as a future starter at either tackle spot.

Round two

#33 Cleveland — Quinshon Judkins (RB, Ohio State)
He gave his stock a huge boost at the combine, testing brilliantly and looking superb. He has the physical profile to go in this range.

#34 NY Giants — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
A superb on-field work-out at the combine should secure his place in the top-35.

#35 Tennessee — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
Some teams are going to value this guy way higher than the Mike Green types who are short and lack length. Jackson is built like a terminator and is a ‘win getting off the bus’ type of player.

#36 Jacksonville — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
The Jaguars need a playmaker in the secondary. Hairston is fantastically athletic and smooth in coverage but his run defense and tackling is a big concern.

#37 Las Vegas — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
Sanders simply isn’t physically impressive enough, isn’t capable of avoiding creating his own pressure and based on Todd McShay’s reports about how he handled combine meetings last week, there’s a chance he will slide.

#38 New England — Josh Conerly Jr (T, Oregon)
The Patriots secure a left tackle, although they’ll need to dabble in free agency before they get to this point to fix their O-line.

#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
After a brilliant week at the Senior Bowl Arroyo could be Chicago’s answer to Sam LaPorta for Ben Johnson.

#40 New Orleans — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Swinson is being massively slept on after recording the joint most pressures during the college football regular season. A quality player.

#41 Chicago — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
Harmon’s pass-rush win percentage from the interior is highly impressive and he had a good combine session on the field.

#42 New York Jets — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
The Jets stay patient and land Dart, a player who could compete to start quickly in New York.

#43 San Francisco — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
With Dre Greenlaw seemingly set to depart, the 49ers get a steal by landing Schwesinger in round two.

#44 Dallas — Jaylin Noel (WR, Iowa State)
A quality player who jumps off the tape. He would provide a brilliant complement to Ceedee Lamb in Dallas.

#45 Indianapolis — Tate Ratledge (G, Georgia)
With Will Fries reaching free agency, the Colts select his replacement here.

#46 Atlanta — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
The Falcons need another cornerback and Thomas’ excellent Senior Bowl will secure a top-50 placing.

#47 Arizona — Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
‘The Mayor’ finds his way to the NFC West as the Cardinals double-down on EDGE rushers.

#48 Miami — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Williams has so much potential but could stand to shed about 10lbs to realise it.

#49 Cincinnati — Demetrius Knight (LB, South Carolina)
He was such a force for the Gamecocks and had a better than expected work-out in Indianapolis.

#50 Seattle — Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
I get the sense some teams (not all) will view Ewers very differently to the internet. I have an inkling too that John Schneider might be one of the people who feels that way. Ewers has been working closely with Mike McCarthy recently, a close friend of Schneider. This could be the year the Seahawks take a QB.

#51 Denver — Harold Fanin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
The Broncos need a tight end. Sean Payton has found ways to max-out receiver-first TE’s in the past and Fanin Jr might appeal to him.

#52 Pittsburgh — Will Howard (QB, Ohio State)
It’s very easy to imagine Mike Tomlin having a lot of time for Howard. You can see him in Pittsburgh and the AFC North.

#53 Tampa Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
A tremendous player who would be an immediate contributor and replacement for Chris Godwin if he departs.

#54 Green Bay — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
The Packers try to kick start their pass rush by adding Umanmielen to the rotation.

#55 LA Chargers — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Again, Jim Harbaugh is a trenches guy. He could be set to lose Khalil Mack and/or Joey Bosa. As with Kenneth Grant, he knows all about Stewart’s qualities — with a NCAA leading 27% pass-rush win percentage.

#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — James Pearce Jr (EDGE, Tennessee)
Character concerns push Pearce Jr into round two before the Bills end his fall.

#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
A tremendous player with a high level of intensity, power, athleticism and character. He had seven sacks in 2024. If you missed my recent interview with him, check it out here.

#58 Houston — Jared Wilson (C, Georgia)
The Texans continue to rebuild their interior O-line through the draft.

#59 Baltimore — Aireontae Ersery (T, Minnesota)
The Ravens are always prepared to take a chance on big offensive tackles.

#60 Detroit — Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
An excellent Senior Bowl and a decent combine secure a second round placing for Alexander.

#61 Washington — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
He lacks sand in his pants to absorb double-teams but as a pass-rusher he can impact games.

#62 Buffalo — Shavon Revel (CB, East Carolina)
If it wasn’t for the injury, he’d have a shot at the first round.

#63 Kansas City — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
A forty in the 4.5’s is an alarm bell — many receivers with his size and lack of speed fail to separate at the next level. He’ll need a good quarterback throwing the ball.

#64 Philadelphia — Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
When he’s revved up and going full tilt, he can be incredibly disruptive.

Round three

#65 NY Giants — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
#66 Kansas City (v/TEN) — Terrance Ferguson (TE, Oregon)
#67 Cleveland — Tyler Shough (QB, Louisville)
#68 Las Vegas — Billy Bowman Jr (S, Oklahoma)
#69 New England — Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
#70 Jacksonville — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
#71 New Orleans — Tai Felton (WR, Maryland)
#72 Chicago — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
#73 Las Vegas (v/NYJ) — Darien Porter (CB, Iowa State)
#74 Carolina — Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
#75 San Francisco — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
#76 Dallas — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
#77 New England (v/ATL) — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
#78 Arizona — Dylan Fairchild (G, Georgia)
#79 Washington (v/MIA) — Tyler Baron (EDGE, Miami)
#80 Indianapolis — Joshua Farmer (DT, Florida State)
#81 Cincinnati — Marcus Mbow (G, Purdue)
#82 Seattle — Jackson Hawes (TE, Georgia Tech)
#83 Pittsburgh — Tory Horton (WR, Colorado State)
#84 Tampa Bay — Andrew Mukuba (S, Texas)
#85 Denver — Shemar Turner (DE, Texas A&M)
#86 LA Chargers — Jake Majors (C, Texas)
#87 Green Bay — Benjamin Morrison (CB, Notre Dame)
#88 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Virginia Tech)
#89 Houston — Omarr Norman-Lott (DT, Tennessee)
#90 LA Rams — DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
#91 Baltimore — Jacob Parrish (CB, Kansas State)
#92 NY Jets (v/DET) — Denzel Burke (CB, Ohio State)
#93 New Orleans (v/WAS) — Riley Leonard (QB, Notre Dame)
#94 Cleveland (v/BUF) — Anthony Belton (T, NC State)
#95 Philadelphia — Barrett Carter (LB, Clemson)
#96 Kansas City — Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (DE, Georgia)
#97 Minnesota — Zy Alexander (CB, LSU)
#98 Miami — Jonah Savaiinaea (G, Arizona)
#99 San Francisco — Gunnar Helm (TE, Texas)
#100 LA Rams — Emory Jones (T, LSU)

Thoughts on the Seahawks

It won’t be a surprise to anyone who followed our combine coverage that Donovan Ezeiruaku is the pick at #18. I can imagine a lot of people will turn their noses up at him. It’s indisputable though that he is exactly the type of player the Seahawks love to draft and is worthy, within this draft class, of going in the top-20.

Character has been a big part of their decision making for some time. Ezeiruaku is A+ in this category. He was a captain at Boston College, he’s incredibly driven and has a passion for the game. Listening to his interviews, he perfectly fits the type of player they have come to target.

He’s highly productive, recording 16.5 sacks last season despite getting little help at Boston College. For a comparison, Jared Verse had nine sacks in the same conference in his final year at Florida State and had the benefit of playing on the same line as Braden Fiske. Ezeiruaku was also tied Bradyn Swinson for the most pressures (60) during the college football regular season. He had more than Abdul Carter. He won games for his team in 2024.

He’s not just a good pass-rusher. His run-stop responsibility percentage led college football at his position in 2024 (10.1%) — so he can start quickly and won’t be a liability on early downs.

His short shuttle of 4.19 has only been beaten by 15 pass rushers in combine history weighing between 245-260lbs. It’s in the same ball-park as former target Arnold Ebiketie (4.24) and Derick Hall (4.22). He also has 34-inch arms. The only thing lacking is a 1.5 10-yard split. We’ll see if he runs at his pro-day.

If you’re worried about his size (248lbs) it’s worth looking at the 2024 sack leaders. The list in the top-12 includes:

Nik Bonitto — 240lbs
Micah Parsons — 245lbs
Andrew Van Ginkel — 242lbs
Will Anderson — 243lbs
Will McDonald — 236lbs

This is a draft class where players drafted at #18 and #45 will carry similar grades. It’s going to be a real ‘pick your poison’ second half of round one. I wouldn’t underestimate Ezeiruaku as an option for the Seahawks. Don’t take my word for it — Lance Zierlein gave him a 6.40 grade. Only 16 players have a higher grade.

Questions about Uchenna Nwosu’s future and ability to stay healthy, plus Boye Mafe being in a contract year, could put an EDGE rusher among Seattle’s priorities this off-season.

For what it’s worth, I would seriously consider Grey Zabel at #18 after a brilliant combine workout on the field, plus explosive testing (3.23 TEF) worthy of a top-25 pick. If the Seahawks sign Will Fries though, it makes his selection less likely.

If the Ezeiruaku pick will divide opinion, I can feel the force of the collective eye-rolls from Seahawks Twitter at the Quinn Ewers selection at #50.

As I noted yesterday, I think we’ll see a run on quarterbacks on day-two. I also think the presence of a middle-class will create the best opportunity for Schneider to pick one he likes since trading Russell Wilson in 2022.

Ewers spending time with Mike McCarthy recently is interesting, given the connection between the former Cowboys Head Coach and Seattle’s GM. I’m not making any bold predictions for Ewers’ NFL career. I feel like we’ve done to death the positives and negatives of his time in college. I do think some decision makers will be intrigued by the prodigy nature of his upbringing and will feel like — with time — they might be able to ‘chase an edge’ and get a player who typically might’ve gone earlier if the injuries didn’t derail his final year at Texas.

Can I see Schneider picking Ewers? Yes. Can I see him being interested in several of these quarterbacks on day two? Also yes.

Alternative picks could include Georgia center Jared Wilson, Darius Alexander from Toledo and Ty Robinson from Nebraska.

The final pick in round three might feel like a reach but I don’t think it is. Georgia Tech tight end Jackson Hawes is a fit for the desired nature of this team. He’s an incredibly intense blocking tight end. Forget the 4.82 forty yard dash, it doesn’t matter. Focus on the 1.56 10-yard split at 253lbs (an elite time for a great pass-rusher at that size) and the 4.4 short shuttle. The best tight ends in the league have this kind of agility and short-area burst.

This is a tone-setter of a pick. It’ll be like having an extra offensive lineman on the field when he’s out there. I think he deserves to go in round three and if you want the Seahawks to be more tough, physical and better blockers up front — this is your guy. It’s also possible they could move Noah Fant after the draft if they make this selection — or just keep him for 2025.

Seahawks seven-round mock draft

#18 — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
#50 — Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
#82 — Jackson Hawes (TE, Georgia Tech)
#137 — Nazir Stackhouse (DT, Georgia)
#173 — Nick Martin (LB, Oklahoma State)
#187 — Robert Longerbeam (CB, Rutgers)
#212 — Isaac TeSlaa (WR, Arkansas)
#236 — Luke Kandra (G, Cincinnati)

A few notes on the day three picks. Stackhouse is a classic nose tackle who looked well proportioned with his weight at the combine. He was one of the big surprises. Martin tested superbly and is known for his great attitude and physical toughness. Longerbeam’s leadership qualities are said to be highly regarded at Rutgers and he too had an excellent day at the combine. TeSlaa was a big surprise with his testing — he’s raw and needs refinement but there’s a lot of potential here. He makes difficult catches look easy. Medical concerns could force Kandra down the board but he’s a really good fit as a developmental zone blocking guard or center.