This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…
Record: 3-1
Thoughts
Last year, the team also started 3-1 in their first four games. They then lost four out of their next five and it cost them the division and a playoff spot.
What is the difference between last year and this year? The peaks and valleys last year turned out to be prescient of the next few weeks. The team struggled with a different facet of the game nearly every week.
This year is a far more balanced 3-1 team. Both the offense and defense are high in the top-10 in scoring and special teams had an ‘explosive trifecta’ this quarter: A blocked punt and return touchdowns on both a punt and a kickoff.
There are things to work on to be sure, but the fundamentals of this team are strong. Something fans have not been able to say for years.
MVP
1a. Sam Darnold
The decision by the Seahawks to pivot quickly from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold in March made a lot of sense on paper. Darnold was younger, cost less, and was a natural fit in the new offense Mike Macdonald was installing with Klint Kubiak.
Mixing all the ingredients and making the offense go is another matter altogether. How would Darnold fit in the locker room? Would he be able to quickly form chemistry with his new group of receivers, most notably new top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Would concerns about his late-season struggles under the face of pass-rush pressure doom an offense that had only added Grey Zabel to its Offensive Line? Is his success totally dependent upon being carried by a dominant running game?
All questions and concerns have been answered to the extent that they can be in the first four games.
Darnold is among the NFL’s best passers statistically.
Perhaps the best stat to distill Darnold’s play so far might be On Target Throw Percentage from Pro Football Reference. They take Total pass attempts and remove Spikes and Throwaways to get a better picture of a Quarterback’s accuracy.
Darnold is far and away leading the NFL with an 82.8% number.
He is above a group of players at around 80% On Throw Percentage: Daniel Jones, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff.
The big difference between Darnold and that tier of Quarterbacks is throwing short passes at a very healthy clip. They are all in the 5.5-6.8 Air Yards per Completed Pass, while Donald is clocking in at 8.1 – deepest average in the NFL.
So, he is more accurate than everyone else while throwing much farther than his next best Quarterback.
Does he have chemistry with his teammates? Yes, he does.
Draw up a realistic best-case scenario for the first four games the moment Darnold signed with the Seahawks in March. This is exactly what it would look like.
1b. Leonard Williams
His renaissance continues right where he left off last season. At 31, he again is on track to match his career-best numbers in all the important stats: sacks, pressures, tackles for loss, passes defensed and solo tackles.
Opposing offenses give him extra attention and still cannot contain him.
Mike Macdonald – a coach who does not dole out praise liberally – recently said “I have a hard time thinking there’s another defensive lineman playing better than him.”
Through four games, the Seahawk defense has generated a 25.3% pressure rate (good for #5 overall in the NFL) while only blitzing on 14.9% of plays (#31 in the NFL!).
Williams is a big part of the reason why. Getting effective pressure early in the season like this allows Mike Macdonald to not need to reveal his entire blitz package so early. He is able to keep his cards close to the vest as the season progresses and save them for key moments.
Williams has always lived on the lower end of the NFL’s top 10 inside linemen. He is highly valued around the league but his tremendous skillset and athleticism always left you wanting a little more from him in games.
No longer. He has arrived, and the defense would not be the same without him.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Plug in his stats and project them over a season and he is on course to top his career-best season from last year.
That is to be expected. A top-20 draft pick making good and getting better every season of his rookie contract should not surprise anyone.
What makes it so impressive is he is doing it while breaking in his third consecutive Offensive Coordinator in as many seasons. Added to that, he is working with a new Quarterback. Added to that, the running game is not hitting on all cylinders yet, putting pressure on the passing game to excel. Added to that, Smith-Njigba is clearly the top target with D.K. Metcalf gone, so he is getting the bulk of Defensive Coordinator attention.
If all that doesn’t get him into the team MVP conversation, this will:
He is on track to record 77 first downs. He had a fantastic 57 last year. He is on pace to be a top-five player in the NFL in first downs and moving the chains is incredibly valuable.
Rookie of the Quarter
- Grey Zabel
Zabel might be the best example in recent Seahawks history of Occam’s Razor.
The Offensive Line badly needed an upgrade. At Left Guard if possible.
If that person could be strong enough, talented enough and available when they picked in the first round of the draft, it would be the perfect intersection of talent, value and need.
And if he could snap into the starting Offensive Line from Day One of camp like a three-year NFL veteran, that would be great.
Oh, and if he could live up to all the expectations and maul some people while keeping his Quarterback clean, that would be great too.
Zabel has been all that and more. A seamless fit on the team. It’s almost as if he was fated to be a Seahawk in this offense.
Probably the greatest compliment he gets is little to no coverage in broadcasts, except to point out his effort and great play.
In a game so competitive that major roster shuffling is a regular occurrence, it is rarely simple enough to just make a pick and count on a guy for the next 5-10 years without giving it a second thought.
Zabel and the Seahawks are doing just that.
2. Tory Horton
The fifth-round pick has turned whispers of being the Steal of the Draft in camp to real production on the field.
Three touchdowns in his first four NFL games is fantastic production.
Two of them came early on when the game was still contested, making them more valuable.
One of them is the 95-yard punt return that showcased his speed and ability to attack defenders and not just elude them.
It is just a glimpse of that production he can have if he keeps living up to his athletic potential.
He is also doing this while only having a split share of snaps. Horton currently stands at 106 offensive snaps, only 44% of all the snaps on offense.
Horton has not replaced D.K. Metcalf. But he most assuredly has eased concerns over where some of Metcalf’s production is going to come from.
3. Elijah Arroyo
Arroyo’s potential is well known by fans who have watched him since his college football days.
He delivered two key plays in a Week Four win against the Cardinals. The first, being available on a scramble drill and taking advantage of being covered by 265-lb Josh Sweat.
The second, using a quick step to force Budda Baker to commit Pass Interference in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown.
As he and Darnold get acclimated to one another, Arroyo’s production will only grow — and he is going to get more opportunities to make an impact on offense.
In the meantime, he is doing some of the unseen chores that Tight Ends do: be a lead blocker on wide zone runs and draw coverage attention to open the middle of the field for dump offs or Quarterback runs.
Successes
1. Defensive Continuity
Something we can take for granted at times is year-to-year greatness in one area of the team.
Things change quickly in the NFL, even when teams carry a large chunk of their coaches and players into the new year. There is nothing automatic about it. Every yard of success must be earned. Just ask shell-shocked Ravens fans about the state of their current defense – bottom-five in most categories.
The Seahawks defense has not changed as the force that is pushing this team forward.
They currently surrender under 90 rushing yards per game and stand #2 in the NFL by conceding only 16.8 points per game.
They have not surrendered a rushing touchdown and are only giving up 3.6 yards per rush.
And it needs to be said again – they are the fifth-best defense in getting pressures while being next-to-last in blitzing rate. That is coaching matching talent.
Last season it took some time and some in-season personnel adjustments to reach their potential. This year, they have come out of the gate firing and supported the offense in a fine way.
They have not peaked yet. Some things need work (see below). But overall, the core of this team is in place and it gives them a chance to win any game.
2. The Roster Moves’ Impact on the Field
Core players Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have all moved on.
Making such dramatic roster moves carries a degree of risk that not all General Managers have the stomach for. That is a lot of voltage going out the door.
What has kept this team on track, even moving forward?
A shared vision from top to bottom. A commitment to lower-maintenance personalities in the locker room. Placing a premium on finding players and coaches that fit what they want to do.
Veteran signings Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Lawrence. A draft class that is already paying dividends.
These players are unified in their belief, and they want to be here, helping the team be as successful as they possibly can.
You can even point to far smaller moves garnering on-field results.
Committing to Josh Jobe instead of playing the Restricted Free Agent tender game and giving him snaps that he very clearly is earning.
Claiming Derion Kendrick has already proven a very shrewd move.
Not being afraid to give Tory Horton – a rookie and presumptive #3 Wide Receiver – punt return duties.
Getting standout special teams play from Chazz Surratt and D’Anthony Bell.
The roster is littered with ‘clear wins’ and many who have room to add even more than what they have in the first quarter.
Also not to be ignored is the team’s trust in their medical staff for guidance in their decisions.
Let’s hold off awarding John Schneider the same accolades he got for building the Legion of Boom teams. But if this offseason is any indication, he is on his way to building another team that is deep, talented and very hard to beat.
3. The Blowout of the Saints at Lumen
The Saints are 0-4 and nobody is confusing them with a contender.
Let’s be clear though: In all three of their other games (against San Francisco, Arizona and Buffalo) they put up a worthy fight. They are not some sad-sack franchise who is already booking vacation flights and tee times for January (that is Tennessee’s lot in life right now).
The last time the Seahawks beat an opponent by as many as 31 points, it was 2020 when they pasted the New York Jets 40-3. In that game, it was not well in hand until the end of the third quarter. Against the Saints, the Seahawks took a 38-6 lead into halftime and were able to pull starters in the third quarter to rest them up for the upcoming Thursday Night game against a division rival.
Offense. Defense. Special Teams. Everything was working.
And it was at home, where long-suffering fans were able to serenade their team and relax and celebrate a win before the game was half over.
It was glorious.
Challenges
1. The Running Game & Running Back Usage
For as much as we talk about the vision of this team, a big chunk of it remains an open question.
Brady Henderson recently pointed out that the Seahawks lead the NFL in runs with zero or negative gain.
They are not even supplementing the numbers by passing to the Running Backs to give them touches. Last year Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet had 105 targets between them. This year so far? Nine. That averages out to about 38 over the course of a season. While there is a little silver lining to this stat, they currently are being criminally underused in this area.
Those dog December days of cold temperatures and rainy conditions will require the team to be able to get first downs and wear defenses out while eating clock. If they cannot find yards on the ground, it could mean a quick exit come playoff time.
This core principle of the offense needs some production soon.
It is not going to get easier. In the next four games, the Seahawks will face the current #4, 5, 11 and 13 rushing defenses.
Adding to the challenge is the placing of Fullback Robbie Ouzts on Injured Reserve, as he was establishing himself in the running game in a big way early on.
They must win the matchup in this critical area. Or at least force it to a draw so the defense does not consistently flood coverage and disrupt the passing game.
2. Riq Woolen & the Corner Situation
Entering a contract year, following two seasons of mixed play, Woolen has a lot of pressure on him to perform.
Once again, the results have been mixed. Woolen has suffered the curse of the cornerback, particularly in the opener against San Francisco: Play good and not much is noticed. Make mistakes at key moments and you get all the attention and have no one to blame but yourself. It can be a lonely position on the field at times.
It could be that Woolen just does not fit Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme and moving on is the best option. Woolen is a great instinctual player and it always appears like he is being asked to think more than react. At times that hurts him. He has given up key pass interference penalties and failed to high point or otherwise attack the football. He seems to be committed to improving his tackling from prior seasons but it has not improved enough to offset the other troubles he has had.
So now we are in a spot where his name is being prominently mentioned as a trade candidate. Once you get to that point, it may be best for everyone involved to part ways.
The Seahawks do have quality depth at Cornerback. But being able to adequately fill in for a couple of quarters or a full game is one thing. Being promoted to starter and being consistently adequate is another.
Given how critically important the two Woolen mistakes in the San Francisco game were, it may not be an overstatement to say how they handle the situation at Cornerback going forward may determine how deep they get in the playoffs.
3. Defending Tight Ends
Currently the Seahawks are one of the NFL’s worst defenses when covering Tight Ends. No team has had the opposing offense target their Tight Ends more. Their three touchdowns conceded to Tight Ends also is the highest in the NFL currently.
Some of it can be excused a bit as just the cost of doing business. Through four games, they have faced George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Juwan Johnson and Trey McBride. Nobody is going to keep a lid on that group.
It cools off slightly in the second quarter, with slates against Cade Otton, Brenton Strange, Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz.
It could be argued that at 3-1 this has not been a fatal weakness. But it still needs tightening up.
Right now, the Seahawks are a bit stuck in coverage of Tight Ends with Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas at Linebacker and Nick Emmanwori out with injury.
Is it something that they can scheme up and fine tune to get better?
Second Quarter Games
Tampa Bay (double throwbacks!)
@Jacksonville
Houston (Monday Night Football)
Bye
@Washington (Sunday Night Football)
Goals for the Second Quarter
1. Beat Tampa Bay
The Bucs are a team that may be on the Seahawks’ radar for the playoffs.
A win at home with the same level of play we have seen in the first four games would go a long way towards strengthening their confidence, hopes of landing a playoff spot and having success in the postseason.
The list of Tampa players who likely or definitely will miss the game reads like a Pro Bowl roster. Calijah Kancey, Mike Evans, Luke Goedeke, and Bucky Irving are high-quality players. Losing those four would hurt any team.
On the other hand, All-World Left Tackle Tristan Wirfs got his first action last week, Emeka Egbuka is settling nicely into the NFL as one of the best rookies so far this year and Vita Vea is not at all interested in helping the Seahawks improve their running game.
And Baker Mayfield. He is becoming the player many thought he could be, and is not afraid to take hits, run and dive for yards, or will the Bucs to victory in other ways.
Taking on and defeating a mentally tough team like this at this point in the season could be just what this team needs to build on their early-season momentum.
2. Fit Nick Emmanwori into the Defense
Emmanwori has only played a handful of snaps this year. The Seahawks declined to put him on Injured Reserve with his ankle injury and kept the possibility open of him returning to game action earlier than the four-week window. It has been three full weeks and he should be nearing readiness to go.
Given his use in camp and in the preseason, Mike Macdonald had a very specific role in the defense in mind for him. While he may not be a starter that plays most snaps on defense, it was clear they were counting on Emmanwori to be a key piece of this unit.
It naturally feels like his timeline this season has been stalled. The first quarter was likely to be a break-in period and the team would intend to give him increasing responsibilities as he learned playing NFL offenses and how to properly use his enormous size and skill.
The dream is that Emmanwori and the team have been using the downtime to study game film and get him up to speed with more than just the basics. But there is no substitute for game action.
If he can have a similar impact on the defense that say, rookie Tory Horton has had on offense, he can be a force multiplier that creates turnovers and forces Quarterbacks into taking checkdowns to avoid either getting sacked or intercepted by him.
3. Determine What Will Best Fortify the Roster Going Forward
Several important roster decisions are coming:
- The window is now open for NFI & IR players to start practicing, most notably Christian Haynes and Johnathan Hankins
- They have a bye in Week Eight, a great time to take a breath and reassess
- The trading deadline is Tuesday Nov 4, two days after their Week Nine Sunday Night Football game in Washington
As good as John Schneider has been this off-season, he is best known in recent years for in-season moves. He acquired Leonard Williams and Ernest Jones in consecutive seasons through trades and they have both proven to be excellent additions to the team with real, material impact on the field. Will he strike again this year?
It does appear that there are opportunities. The Seahawks have excellent depth currently on the roster but the chance to acquire a player that could be a difference-maker this year and potentially in future years could prove irresistible.
Another pass rusher? A Linebacker or big Safety who can cover? Another receiving weapon? A Right Guard who can simply be invisible in games?
There is no doubt that John Schneider will continue being aggressive with trades. The first quarter’s 3-1 record, great defense and establishment of Sam Darnold as a productive and affordable option at Quarterback give him plenty of justification to seek out every possible avenue to improve the team and keep the momentum going.
