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A lot of people aren’t going to like this week’s projection. For whatever reason, a lot of people can’t entertain the idea of stock piling talented receivers. Cornerbacks? Sure. Offensive and defensive lineman? You can never have too many. Receivers on the other are treated with great suspicion. The Seahawks have a better group of wide outs today than they’ve had for a long time, but there’s still room for improvement. Mike Williams has regressed this season while Golden Tate still has a lot to prove even if his performances have been improved in recent weeks. Sidney Rice needs to show he can stay healthy after another injury plagued season and Ben Obomanu is steady and reliable, yet unspectacular. Sure, there have been some high profile busts at receiver in recent years, but there’s also been some big success stories. Busts can happen anywhere, including the much fancied offensive tackle and corner back positions.

What the Seahawks don’t have is a receiver capable of scaring the life out of a defense due to pure speed. This week, I’m sending one of the most under rated players in the 2012 NFL Draft to Seattle. Baylor’s quarterback has received a lot of plaudits this year – including a Heisman nomination – but none of it would’ve been possible without Kendall Wright. Those long downfield passes you see Robert Griffin throwing are often to a wide open Wright, who has the speed to stretch the field and the ability to create separation time and time again. This season he, like Griffin, has taken the next step and become a consistent force in the Big 12. Only one player – Western Michigan’s Jordan White – has more passing yards this season. Wright’s stat line reads: 1572 yards, 13 touchdowns.

The Seahawks need to find a quarterback in this draft, even if that means trading up. BUT… if such an option isn’t possible – we have to look at the alternatives in these mock drafts. I anticipate people will ask why I haven’t got the Seahawks taking Dre Kirkpatrick instead – a player adored by many simply because he happens to be 6-2 and coached by Nick Saban. The Seahawks aren’t desperate to add yet another big cornerback, particularly one who isn’t great in coverage (a pretty big part of a corner’s game, don’t you think?). David DeCastro? Perhaps, but eventually the Seahawks have to trust what they’ve invested in the offensive line, including the coaching staff, and look at other areas of the team.

Justin Blackmon takes a fall this week and I have the Seahawks preferring Wright to his Big-12 rival. Why? The Seahawks already have receivers that offer a similar skill set to Blackmon. What they don’t have – and haven’t had for a long time – is someone with elite downfield speed. If they are forced to look at the best options available in the middle of round one, Wright has to be a possibility. And if Seattle is faced with a situation where they’re rolling with Tarvaris Jackson and developing Josh Portis or a later round pick, Wright is also someone who can have an impact running deep route’s early in his pro-career. The idea with these weekly projections is to run through different possibilities, particularly if the Seahawks are going to win their way out of the quarterback stakes.

A final word on Blackmon falling – many people see him as a top-ten lock. I’m guessing I’ll receive the usual flurry of emails arguing against one of the ‘big names’ falling. That kind of thing happens every year and Blackmon is not a can’t miss type player. If he does go in the top ten, it’ll come with a risk factor and it’ll be a reach based on need. I’ve had Blackmon in the top-five picks in previous projections, today I’m looking at the other possibility that he could fall. He’s not going to run a brilliant time at the combine, he does make several frustrating errors (see this video at the 1:16 mark), he’s not got that elite size that teams dream about and there are some slight concerns with his attitude that will need to be checked out. In many ways he’s similar to Michael Crabtree, but Crabtree was a sensational hands catcher with a tremendous wing span. Last year I gave Blackmon a grade in the 20’s and while I expect he probably will go earlier than that, I’m not convinced he’ll be taken in the same range as superior physical prospects like AJ Green and Julio Jones.

One other note… Indianapolis needs to prepare for a big decision. The noises are already being made that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck cannot co-exist, something we’ve talked about a lot on this blog. The Colts are almost certainly going to have to choose between the two players, potentially freeing up Manning as a free agent. You have to believe teams like Washington (with an owner like Dan Snyder) will jump at the chance to sign Manning to a bumper deal for 2-3 years while quietly grooming a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill in the background. It’s a possible scenario that could open the door for Seattle if you’re hoping for one of the top three quarterbacks.

Of course, the Luck camp may not see a gig in Indianapolis – and following Manning – as the ideal situation for their man. This is a bad Indy team that could easily go 0-16. Following Manning will be like trying to follow up a brilliant first album. The Lucks could push for a better situation – again, possibly Washington but more likely a team such as Cleveland that has the ammunition to trade up. Getting a big deal for multiple round one picks could help the Colts rebuild their terrible roster, back Peyton Manning who’s done so much for that franchise and still plan for the future at quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out, but I’ll be stunned if Manning and Luck are on the same roster next season.

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are facing a difficult situation where they’ll have to either cut Peyton Manning or trade this pick. Interesting times ahead.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams need some offensive playmakers more than anything, but they’ll struggle to pass on a talent like Kalil who can anchor their line for years.

	#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) He keeps making plays – eleven interceptions in two seasons. Minnesota would surely love a crack at Matt Kalil, but he’s off the board.

	#4 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) With Gene Smith extending his contract, he’ll be tasked with backing his judgement on Blaine Gabbert. That should include an offensive minded coach and a unique target like Jones.

	#5 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) Elite potential and crucially he’s pro-ready. Washington needs someone who can start in year one.

	#6 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia) He says he won’t declare for the draft, but after a prolific season (including 13.5 sacks) a top-ten grade could change his mind.

	#7 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Cleveland needs a playmaker on offense and Richardson would be an instant star for the Browns.

	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) More of a right tackle prospect than a blind-side blocker, Philly needs to sure up that offensive line.

	#9 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) We’re told big changes are coming in the coaching department, which usually means a new quarterback. Griffin will help the Dolphins sell tickets.

	#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Tampa Bay fans say linebacker is a big need, so why not draft a player who’s been compared to Lance Briggs?

	#11 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Arizona’s priority this off season has to be finding a left tackle. Martin isn’t spectacular, but he’s the best available here.

	#12 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Tackling machine who looks like a Scott Pioli-type player. A nice fit in Kansas City’s defense.

	#13 Quinton Coples (DE, UNC) The Bills need a pass rusher, but the options at 3-4 OLB are limited. Coples was a lot better in the second half of the season.

	#14 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) With three QB’s off the board and no obvious defensive line options – the Seahawks have to think outside of the box. Wright could be the next Mike Wallace.

	#15 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) San Diego has to add a reliable feature to it’s defense. Te’o can be a leader who performs every Sunday without fail.

	#16 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) There’s a degree of bandwagon jumping when it comes to DeCastro. That’s not to say it won’t help promote the Washington native into this kind of range.

	#17 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Could he suffer a fall? He doesn’t have explosive speed, he can make frustrating errors. Blackmon isn’t a top-ten lock.

	#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) Cincinnati has some promising young playmakers and Miller would add another dimension.

	#19 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) The Jets need to add to their pass rush and could show interest in Mercilus, who leads the NCAA with 14.5 sacks this year.

	#20 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Looks every bit a future NFL guard. Perhaps a little under rated and closer to David De Castro than most think

	#21 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Having added an elite talent at running back earlier, Cleveland continues it’s offensive rebuild with a big playmaker at receiver.

	#22 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite talent who only falls due to character concerns. AJ Green and Julio Jones had their worst games against Jenkins in 2010.

	#23 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) Under rated linebacker, would be a nice compliment to Chicago’s defense.

	#24 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Versatile defensive lineman who can fit into a number of looks. Pittsburgh can afford to take the BPA.

	#25 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall corner who’s flashed real ability in run support, but needs to improve in coverage. John Brantley shouldn’t be abusing any cornerback in the SEC.

	#26 David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech) Really productive running back for the Hokies who could have a quick impact in Denver.

	#27 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.

	#28 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) Big nose tackle prospect. Houston switched to the 3-4 this year but could still use Ta’amu’s size up front to anchor their defensive line.

	#29 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia) I’ve seen Virginia twice this season and Aboushi looks like a NFL tackle. Baltimore needs to bolster that offensive line.

	#30 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor) He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.

	#31 Micheal Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Production machine but issues off the field will prevent him going much earlier than this.

	#32 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He’s having a good year but his stock is limited due to the position he plays. This would be a nice get for the Packers.

On Tuesday I raised a point ahead of this updated mock draft – what if the Seahawks don’t need to trade up for a quarterback? As we saw with Blaine Gabbert last April, teams have contrasting grades on certain players. In that instance Jacksonville aggressively pursued a player that Washington – who desperately needed a quarterback – just weren’t interested in. Despite having a big need at the position, the Redskins completely ignored the options available. Just because a team has a perceived need, it doesn’t mean they’ll just take the next player available in round one. Could this allow a quarterback to slip through the cracks? It’s something we can consider and discuss at the start of December and that’s why I’ve chosen to highlight this in my latest projection.

Scroll down for further analysis after the mock.

	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts will need to make a decision on the future of Peyton Manning, but if they keep this pick then Luck will be the choice.

	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams need some offensive playmakers more than anything, but they’ll struggle to pass on a talent like Kalil who can anchor their line for years.

	#3 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is too high for Blackmon in my view, but the Vikings need a dynamic, alpha male type at receiver. You have to think they’d love Kalil.

	#4 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia) He says he’ll return to Georgia, but getting a grade like this could change his mind. He’s a tremendous playmaker with 13.5 sacks this season.

	#5 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) Elite potential and pro-ready, Barkley can start in week one for the Dolphins and end the post-Marino curse in Miami.

	#6 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) With Gene Smith extending his contract, he’ll be tasked with backing his judgement on Blaine Gabbert. That should include an offensive minded coach and a unique target like Jones.

	#7 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Drafting a left tackle should be Arizona’s priority and although this is a reach, Martin is the clear #2 blind-side blocker after Kalil.

	#8 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Skins need a quarterback, but Mike Shanahan showed last year he won’t just take anyone. Richardson is an elite talent and keep an eye on Ryan Tannehill later.

	#9 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) More of a right tackle prospect than a blind side blocker. Kansas City needs better line play to compliment their playmakers.

	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) He’s played better the last few weeks. Cleveland’s defense has a lot of young talent and Coples would provide a good compliment to Jabaal Sheard.

	#11 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Keeps making plays in a loaded LSU secondary. He’s not the finished article, but time spent at receiver is obvious given his ball skills.

	#12 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Tackling machine who would provide a solid, blue collar addition to Philly’s defense.

	#13 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) He’s not an obvious fit for the two Mike’s – Shanahan & Holmgren. Seattle could benefit if that’s the case.

	#14 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Tampa Bay fans say linebacker is a big need. Why not have a player who’s been compared favorably to Lance Briggs?

	#15 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) The Bills need a pass rusher. Mercilus also needs to play in space at his size, but will need to prove he can adapt to the 3-4.

	#16 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) There’s a degree of bandwagon jumping when it comes to DeCastro. That’s not to say it won’t help promote the Washington native into this kind of range.

	#17 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Explosive, under rated playmaker who looks a lot like Mike Wallace. Locker-to-Wright could be a combination for the ages.

	#18 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He’s having a great year and looks like the consistent force he perhaps hasn’t been prior to 2011. His stock is rising.

	#19 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos are in a difficult position with ‘Tebow-Mania’, yet they need to add something on offense. John Fox had two first round running backs in Carolina.

	#20 David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech) The Browns need to find a playmaker, whether that’s at QB, RB or WR. Wilson has game breaking speed and finishes runs well for his size.

	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who will appeal to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. Specialises in run support, coverage skills need work.

	#22 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite talent who only falls due to character concerns. AJ Green and Julio Jones had their worst games against Jenkins in 2010.

	#23 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) Under rated linebacker, would be a nice compliment to Cincinnati’s defense.

	#24 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro.

	#25 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) The Bears need to add a big, consistent receiver to their offense. Sanu will surprise people with early production.

	#26 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia) I’ve seen Virginia three times in the last two seasons and Aboushi looks like a future pro. Could he rise to this level?

	#27 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Perhaps it’s time to start thinking about inside linebackers in Baltimore? Te’o is the best left on the board here.

	#28 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) Big nose tackle prospect. Houston switched to the 3-4 this year but could still use Ta’amu’s size up front to anchor their defensive line.

	#29 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) He’s made a lot of mistakes off the field, but despite inconsistent quarterback play he’s maintained solid production.

	#30 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor) He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.

	#31 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Looks every bit a future NFL guard. Perhaps a little under rated and closer to David De Castro than most think.

	#32 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) He’s having a good year, but looks like a five-technique convert to me and that could hamper his stock.

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Why have you left out….?

There are several ‘big names’ not included in this week’s projection. While I do try to look at different possibilities with these mocks, I’m only judging things as I see them. I wanted to try and justify why some high profile prospects are missing.

Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma) – I think he’s a completely unspectacular quarterback who will be found out at the next level. He’s not making pre-snap reads, he’ll live or die by the play call. He can’t improvise in the pocket and the modern NFL loves quarterbacks who can extend plays and think outside of the box. Jones is the complete opposite of that – a pocket passer with bad footwork who can’t go through 1-2-3 reads and fire. Mike Shanahan isn’t drafting this guy, Pete Carroll isn’t drafting this guy, Mike Holmgren isn’t drafting this guy. That leaves Miami, Kansas City and Denver. There are better options for the Dolphins and I’m not sure John Elway will be able to leave his front door if the Broncos draft a quarterback in round one. My gut feeling is Jones deserves a mid-round projection, but will end up in round two due to reputation.

Courtney Upshaw (DE/LB, Alabama) – Speed is great when you’re judging a pass rusher, but it’s also possibly the most over rated aspect. I love guys who find ways to get the job done, either with good hands and reach to disengage, or with a repertoire of moves to keep lineman thinking. If you’re doing the same edge rush every time, you’ll get found out. When you combine speed rush, violent hands and a repertoire, you’re onto a winner. I really liked Jabaal Sheard last year because he combined those aspects and played above a lack of elite size. He’s had a decent start to his career in Cleveland with 4.5 sacks so far as a rookie, but I loved that pick for the Browns.  There are a lot of things I like about Upshaw particularly his hand use and ability to gain leverage and avoid blockers because he’s not an elite athlete. At 6-1 and around 270lbs, without eye catching speed, he’s going to need to rely on smarts and technique. But if Sheard with all his talents can’t find a home in round one, then I’m struggling to give Upshaw a better grade. He’s a solid football player, but not the type who usually goes in round one.

Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) – He’s falling a bit because he’s not had a spectacular season and teams will be wary of his temper and attitude. He’s unpredictable, on and off the field, and I’m not sure how he’ll be received in meetings. He doesn’t play a crucial position in terms of draft stock. There isn’t a team in the NFL who’s a middle linebacker away from a big tilt in the playoffs, so teams may well ask, “Do we want the hassle?” I had him in the 20’s last week, but time to look at the possibility he could be a round one casualty.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) – It’s all about separation in the NFL and unfortunately that’s where Jeffery struggles. He has a big frame, but he’s not getting away from anyone. Jonathan Baldwin had similar size but he was an athlete and ran well at the combine. For all his faults, he went in round one because there is that ‘special’ potential hidden away. He found ways to get open, he’d make spectacular downfield plays. Jeffery hasn’t got it. He’ll run a really average time at the combine, because that’s what the tape shows. He’s not exploding into his breaks, he’s not a really consistent receiver and he tends to run sloppy routes. What he does have is the big Mike Williams type frame, so you’re throwing at a big target. He’s been hurt by a bad quarterback situation at South Carolina this season, but this is a class full of better receivers than Alshon Jeffery.

Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson) – When you watch Clemson, every now and again Brandon Thompson jumps off the screen and looks like a top-15 talent. You want to buy into his potential, particularly in a weak overall defensive tackle class. However, the flashes are hidden among a lot of average tape. He will have games where he’s just not effective against the run, getting pushed around by interior lineman. Plus, you just can’t get away from the fact that he has 4.5 sacks in a four year career – despite playing on the same team as Da’Quan Bowers, Andre Branch and others taking up double teams off the edge. He’s quite good at slipping blocks and getting into the backfield, but can you trust he’ll finish with that low level of production? For me, he looks like the kind of player who slips into the third round or the late second and you end up getting a solid pro. Maybe one day you wonder how he fell as far as he did? But that’s what happens.

How did you work a quarterback going to Seattle?

It’s not as ridiculous as it perhaps looks. Miami regrets passing on Matt Ryan, but Matt Barkley can make up for that. Mike Shanahan is very picky with his quarterbacks, as we saw when he passed on Blaine Gabbert last year. He isn’t just looking for an arm and athleticism to run numerous naked bootlegs, play actions and out-of-the-pocket deep passes. To some degree, I can see the Redskins buying into Robert Griffin III. However, I can also see Shanahan and Washington targeting Ryan Tannehill outside of round one, allowing them the chance to add a much needed offensive playmaker like Trent Richardson. Cleveland could be a home for Griffin III, but does he look like an ideal quarterback for the Holmgren visision?

We know the Seahawks have a different way of looking at the position to Shanahan, even if both teams are looking for similar functions (arm strength, athleticism, ability outside of the pocket). Seattle had Gabbert #1 on their board among quarterbacks according to our sources, but Washington clearly didn’t rate him. I’m guessing Shanahan would’ve loved to draft Jake Locker, but the Seahawks had him at #6 among quarterbacks behind second round picks like Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton.

If the Seahawks and Redskins are looking at different players in round one, there’s every chance they have opposing views on Griffin III too. In that situation, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility Griffin III could fall to the Seahawks.

Lamar Miller looks the part for Miami

On October 7th I wrote this article noting which players I believed were worthy of first round projections. I wanted to go back and review this list and also update it based on the games I’ve watched since. It’s important to remember that in some cases I’ve just not seen enough evidence to grade a player. For example, I’ve not had the opportunity to truly focus on Georgia’s rising linebacker Jarvis Jones – therefore I can’t offer a true evaluation. This is supposed to be a work in progress, moving towards the introduction of the weekly mock drafts that will begin in the upcoming weeks.   

Of the initial twelve, here are the players maintaining first projections this month. Of the group, only the top five warrant high first round grades.   

Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)   

Matt Barkley (QB, USC)   

Matt Kalil (OT, USC)   

Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)   

Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)   

Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)   

Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)   

Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)   

Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)   

Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)   

Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State)   

One player on October’s list – Alshon Jeffery (WR, SouthCarolina) – has performed poorly in the previous month and I’m going to re-visit his grade in December. Jeffery is struggling – partly due to a bad quarterback situation but also due his own general physique. He’s playing heavier than he did last year and it’s showing up in games too often. He always looked limited to the role of a big bodied possession receiver, capable of flashing the occasional spectacular catch. He wasn’t a burner and while he was never likely to be a consistent downfield threat, this season he’s struggling to get much separation even on simple routes. His burst off the snap is below average and you don’t see any real explosion in his breaks.   

People like to compare him to Jonathan Baldwin last year, but Baldwin flashed #1 receiver potential despite the size. He could get separation quickly and make the big downfield plays, something I’m not convinced AlshonJeffery can do. It has to limit his stock given the depth of talent at the receiver position this year. He was always over rated as a top-ten pick, but now  I’m starting to doubt whether he even look like a solid late first rounder.   

I’m prepared to add two more players to the list following further tape study:   

Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)   

He’s playing like a NFL cornerbackthis year, he’s a converted wide receiver withgreat fluidity and hip movement for a guy who plays above 6-0. His recovery skills are worthy of a high grade, and so is his ability to make spectacular plays on the ball. Claiborne hasn’t got the explosive overall skill set that Patrick Peterson had last year, but he may end up being a more consistent player at the next level. He does need to add a bit of further bulk in order to cope with the physical nature of the NFL, but his technique makes up for it at LSU and he’s got that all important ability to go through the gears when needed and accelerate to make a play on the ball.   

Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)   

I watched Miller in the first week of the season and he looked explosive – ideal size for the position (5-11, 210lbs), breakaway speed and the ability to play any down on offense. One game isn’t enough evidence to give someone a first round grade, but seeing Miller on an off day for his team against Virginia made me realise he’s the real deal. Although he wasn’t spectacular in the game (70 yards, no touchdowns from 16 carries) he flashed the same balance, vision and acceleration you want to see from a first round back. He won’t be a high choice like Trent Richardson and he won’t define anyone’s offense, but a good team looking for a first round playmaker could check out Miller.   

One further player will be added to the list based on previous evidence in 2010   

Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)   

I left Jenkins off the confirmed list of first round picks last month, but noted him among the players to monitor. Since then he’s been ejected from a game for striking an opponent. Clearly this is a player who will always carry an element of controversy, which is a shame. Last year Jenkins would’ve been the clear #3 cornerbackbehind Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith. AJ Green, AlshonJeffery and Julio Jones all had their worst games of the season in 2010 when being shadowed by Jenkins. He’s an extreme talent, excellent in coverage with supreme fluidity and instinct. He’ll make big plays and he’ll double up as a return threat on special teams. If he can convince one team he’s matured enough to become a true pro, he’ll go in round one. That’s the only thing holding him back.   

Four players I’ll continue to monitor this month prior to December’s update   

Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)   

Having the opportunity to study Iowa only once this year has limited any opportunities to sufficiently grade Reiff, although I did catch some of his play in 2010. I am a bit concerned that he looks like a right tackle prospect – he can get beat off the edge by even a moderate speed rush and his footwork is hit and miss. He’s got the long frame and he’s not a slouch athletically, but when he’s drawn to the outside he’s susceptible to an inside rush move and like I said before – he’ll always be a little suspect against speed round the corner. I want to see if he’s made improvements in pass protection, because he’s a mean run blocker, he understands leverage and hand use as you’d expect from an Iowa-coached lineman and the worst case is he’ll make a solid book-end (of course most teams shouldn’t be drafting right tackles in round one).   

Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina)   

I went back and watched the Georgia Tech game and on a second viewing, Reddick really stood out. I have another UNC game saved against Clemson so I’ll do a bit more homework. Reddick was all over the field against GT and made a number of splash plays against the difficult triple option attack. Great tackler and he also appears to have the kind of restraint and composure lacking in Vontaze Burfict’s play. He’s not a stunning athlete but he consistently made plays outside of his comfort zone and for a guy only playing at 6-2, 233lbs he was a really sure tackler. When he needed to react quickly to the pass against GT (obviously it’s common in the triple option to assume the run) he was quick to get back into coverage and did a good job.   

David De Castro (OG, Stanford)   

Stanford’s right guard and a great technician. The USC game was the first time I’ve really focused on De Castro and he made several impressive plays. On one drive in particular there were three running plays where he drove the defender backwards a good 5-6 yards to create a huge hole for the running back. He seems to know what he’s doing in the run game, his hand placement and technique are about as good as it gets. Thrives on getting to the second level and he’s always looking to block downfield. However, Stanford’s offensive line is among the best in college football, mainly due to the superb coaching they’ve received over the years. There are no explosive athletes – including left tackle Jonathan Martin – this is a group that has grown together. I need to decide whether the sum is greater than the parts in terms of next level projection for both De Castro and Martin.   

Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)   

The great wildcard of the 2012 draft so far. Griffin is intriguing in so many ways – the athletic potential, the deep ball accuracy and the incredible development he’s made from run-first quarterback in year one to  accomplished passer as a fourth-year junior. He extends plays and keeps his eyes downfield, he’s got a decent if not perfect throwing motion, he’s got statistics to die for this year with very few turnovers in his career and he’s the very definition of a character guy (he comes across personable and funny but also hard working and a leader). Even so, something is holding me back from committing to a high grade. His footwork needs a major overhaul and it’s going to take time. His deep accuracy is a positive, but does it translate to the next level? A lofof his big plays have been simple down-the-field bombs with sound placement- often several times in a game. We don’t see that much of a downfield focus in the NFL, so if you take it away and ask Griffin to play a more clinical short passing game will he be able to move the ball? Part of me wants to promote him to the upper echelon of this draft class – especially given his extreme progression as a passer over the years. The other part of me wants to go back and watch his bowl game from last season when I gave him a late round grade at best. This is a tough one.   

Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)   

I’ve seen a lot of Kirkpatrick, but I’m still trying to work out whether he justifies the hype. There’s a stigma around cornerbacks that size = good. Kirkpatrick is 6-2 and about 190lbs and he’s certainly very physical in run support and a sure tackler. However, cornerbacksmake their money in coverage and too often I’ve seen receivers coast past Kirkpatrick with no disruption at the LOS. He’s not been burnt as often as he should’ve been, there’s been a few missed chances in games over the last two seasons. The Florida game this year was a bit of an eye opener in that regard, when Kirkpatrick was at one stage being targeted by John Brantley. Is Kirkpatrick highly over rated due to his Nick Saban coaching and physical appearance? I’m leaning that way, but there’ll be plenty of opportunities to watch Alabama before the season’s end.   

Players who won’t receive first round grades, but are worthy of attention   

Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss)   

Under rated quarterback prospect and the heart-beat of the Golden Eagles team. Southern Miss are ranked #23 on the coaches poll and #25 according to the AP – that achievement cannot be under estimated and it’s mainly down to the impact of their quarterback. Davis is a pure worker – he knew the areas he had to improve both physically and technically and he’s worked as hard as anyone to get there. He’s a clinical passer who makes very few bad decisions. He works within an offense that stresses the necessity to avoid turnovers (similar to the Seahawks), he’s enough of an athlete to make runs on the ground and extend plays. He’s added upper body muscle this year to improve his arm strength. Davis has a shot to make it and only a lack of national attention is keeping him under wraps.   

Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State)   

Busy defensive tackle who jumps off the screen and makes a number of splash plays. Few players will trouble the Boise State offensive like like Harrell did this year. He’s not the biggest lineman and that will limit his role at the next level, but he plays with a spark and he explodes off the snap. Hand use is above average and he finds ways to get into the backfield consistently. He could split roles between the three and five technique in the NFL and while he’ll never be a dominating force – Harrell will find a way to get attention. Also owns a world class moustache, which is a big plus.   

Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)   

He’s having a great year with 10.5 sacks already, but where does he play at the next level? He’s not agile enough to consider switching to 3-4 OLB, but he’s not got the ideal size for a base 4-3 end. Curry isn’t an explosive speed rusher despite that lack of true size, but he’s surprisingly strong and his production over the last two seasons has been among the best in college football. He may still end up in the first round if he performs well enough at the combine to match the stats, but I suspect he’ll go after the top-32 and provide someone with a challenge – how to get the best out of this guy given his skill set.   

Over rated players   

Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)   

I’m still hesitant to commit to Coples as a first rounder, despite his near consensus approval ratings elsewhere. What position is he going to play at the next level? He’s not a good enough edge rusher to play 4-3 defensive end, he’s not big enough to kick inside as anything more than a third down rusher. I end up settling for the 3-4 orthodox five technique, but even then I’m not entirely convinced you’d want to make a big splash to get this guy on your team in that role. He’s off the field too much for my liking, including in key third down attempts. For the season he has 4.5 sacks – two of which came against James Madison in week one. If he’s a top-ten pick, I’ll be stunned.   

Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma)   

Limited physical talent working to execute a small playbook in a high tempo offense. He doesn’t have an amazing arm, he’s very limited in terms of athleticism, he’s predictable and the production he’s having in college will not translate. In the NFL he’s not going to be able to rely on the same play call every week (the now notorious fade to Kenny Stills). A lot of his plays are scripted and he basically does what he’s told, in the NFL he’s going to be presented with multiple options and he’s going to have to improvise – something I’m not sure he’ll be able to do. He struggles against any kind of pressure – Jones’ can’t extend plays by moving out of the pocket and he surprisingly struggles to step up and buy extra time against even moderate edge pressure. I think he’ll be found out quickly in the pro’sand you’ll be left with a very mediocre quarterback.   

Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)   

I still see Floyd cropping up among top-ten projections and I have to ask – why? This is a player who wasn’t considered a high pick last year as a junior and returned to Notre Dame largely because of a poor grade from the draft committee. Needing a strong year to boost his stock back into the first round – he was almost immediately cited for drink driving and suspended by the team. The production has been good this year (as it was in 2010) but the same problems exist – sloppy route running, too many body catches and he’s not an explosive deep threat. He’s a big receiver who may end up being a good #2, but compared to players like Dwight Jones he’s severely lacking the skills to be a top end receiver pick.

Yesterday we highlighted Robert Griffin III’s tape against Texas A&M from the weekend. Overall I found it to be an impressive performance, strangely more impressive than Griffin’s highlight reel display against TCU in week one. The game with the Horned Frogs was a bit of a freak show – repetitive long bombs that made for great viewing but provided more questions than answers. Was this something the Bears had worked on during a long off-season to surprise TCU given Baylor’s strict screen game? Was it just a rank bad performance by a secondary that had previously impressed? Was it a one-off spectacular?

I was leaning more towards scepticism than excitement after watching Griffin’s tape against Rice. The screen game was back and some of the old flaws were still screaming out. There’s no getting around the basic footwork issues that require major work at the next level. For starters, Griffin needs to get rid of the dance moves in the pocket – he often takes two steps without advancing or retreating, before needing to re-set to release.

It’s like watching Justin Timberlake trying to lead a Big 12 offense and it’ll cause problems at the next level because it adds wasted time to the complete motion of delivering the football. In the NFL Griffin may only get a small window of opportunity to find an open receiver, he needs to quicken up the time it takes to drop back and release to give himself the best possible opportunity to hit the target. Secondly, pass rushers at the next level don’t need very long to get free and even if they’re not getting the sack there’s always the chance they’ll force a splash via a deflected pass or by taking away one side of the field.

Griffin being such a good athlete compensates for this wasted time and often he’s able to move out of the pocket to extend plays either by running or throwing. The potential is there to become an even more spectacular player with proper pro-coaching on his footwork, but it’s one of the hardest things a young quarterback has to embrace. Neither is it an unusual thing – Joe Flacco had to learn every basic fundamental of becoming a pro-passer when he was drafted by Baltimore and he still had an impact as a rookie starter. It helps that Flacco’s deep ball was such a threat from day one, but Griffin similarly is a gifted downfield passer.

Bringing it back to the Texas A&M game to talk about the positives, I was surprised at how rounded Griffin looked as a passing quarterback. There were several instances where he visibly went from one target to another and wasn’t afraid to attempt a difficult throw rather than look for checkdowns. The Baylor offense doesn’t use a lot of checkdown stuff, it really is screen-heavy with downfield passing and some intermediate routes. Even so, the big issue I have with quarterbacks like Kevin Kolb is the frequency they play safe to checkdown. Griffin is almost the anti-Kolb but not in a bad way – he’s pretty accurate on downfieldthrows and he’s got a good feel for the football, knowing when to take something off the ball or to go high/low to avoid coverage. I don’t anticipate he’ll change much at the next level, taking what he’s given downfield if possible, but being wise enough to know when to checkdown.

If you look at yesterday’s video and the touchdown pass at 3:47 – that’s a brilliant play. It’s only a short completion, but Griffin disects two defenders and recognises he needs to throw low to avoid them. There’s a greater risk that the pass will be incomplete, but there’s virtually zero chances of a turnover. It’s that kind of execution and quick thinking that will impress NFL scouts.

The athletic side of Griffin’s game speaks for itself – he will run a good forty yard dash at the combine and he’s got the double positive of being elusive in the pocket to extend plays and a threat running the ball if he finds a lane. 

I find it hard to find a par comparison for the player Griffin could be in the NFL. He’s not Michael Vick. At Virginia Tech Vick had 636 yards from 113 attempts with nine touchdowns the year before he turned pro. Vick actually only threw 179 passes that year for 1439 yards and a mediocre 9-7 touchdown-turnover ratio. Griffin works in a completely different offense and has been a much more productive passer throughout his career (3501 yards last season) but less of an explosive rusher (635 yards in 2010 from 149 carries). Essentially it took Vick 46 less carries to reach the same yardage as Griffin managed in 2010. Vick is such a phenomena that we may never see a player with his physical potential again. It’s not just on a production basis that the two differ, there are also physical and athletic differences. Griffin is a brilliant athlete, but he isn’t Mike Vick.

I’ve also seen comparisons to Cam Newton, but again I think they are wide of the mark. I cannot stress enough how impressive Newton was/is. Despite a lot of negative press last year at Auburn, he carried that team through his own sheer brilliance. I suspect in a few years time we may well talk about Newton in the same way we talk about Vick – this is a rare breed of player that will bring his own unique twist to the NFL. Griffin is a safer pair of hands than Newton when it comes to decision making, character and controlling an offense, but Newton is just a complete superstar. He’s harder to control and manage, but you don’t want to control or manage him. You let the guy loose, you let him make big plays using his own talent and instinct. Griffin is much more of a project than Vick or Newton and can’t be expected to have the same impact early in his NFL career.

According to my sources Seattle didn’t grade Newton particularly highly. I suspect this is because they’re looking for a quarterback who can fit into a scheme and help control a possession offense and help win a turnover battle (whether that’s the correct way of viewing Seattle’s needs at QB is another debate completely). Newton would never fit into that way of life – he’s someone who won’t be controlled on the field and will have turnovers in his career. However, he’ll also keep you competitive in most games because of his pure individual talent. If Newton finds a level of consistency he could become a NFL great. That will be his greatest battle though, and I suspect he’ll always be somewhat unpredictable. That may not be what Pete Carroll wants for his offense.

Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick, and Andy Dalton were all listed above Newton on Seattle’s board. Jake Locker – another precocious but unpredictable talent – was ranked at #6. I suspect someone like Griffin may interest the Seahawks given his low number of turnovers (13 in four years compared to 61 touchdowns), his impressive on and off field intelligence, decision making and ability to extend plays. I can’t stress enough how impressive Griffin the individual is. The players at Baylor see him as a leader and put their necks on the line for him. His interviews are always conducted with respect and without attitude. He has a high level of book smarts and a work rate that is clear given his continued progress. This brings me onto my final point…

The one thing teams love to see more than anything is progress. Matt Barkley has made progress every year at USC – whether it’s technique, production or decision making. Andrew Luck – despite setting high bars in 2010 – has actually managed to continue to progress. Yet both players entered college as talented, natural quarterbacks. Griffin’s progress is maybe more impressive because he was an athlete who has transformed into a passing quarterback. Go back and find tape of Griffin’s freshman year and tell me that’s a guy with any NFL quarterback potential. Even last year I watched Baylor and wondered if I could muster a late round grade for the guy. Now? We’re talking about him in a whole new light.

He has worked at his craft and it shows. Griffin doesn’t just deserve immense credit, he’ll be making people sit up and take notice. He may not declare for the 2012 draft and he’s looked at the possibility of attending law school if he stays at Baylor for a 5th year (he was granted a medical redshirt in 2009). If he does declare, he’ll star at the combine in work outs and in the meeting rooms. Teams are going to fall in love with this guy – from an athletic, academic and personal perspective.

For those reasons, there’s every chance he could end up being a very high pick indeed. Would I pull the trigger? I’m still not convinced, because he is a long term project and there are lingering issues that would concern me enough to put me off investing a high pick. Someone will be convinced though when it’s time to make the decision and that’s the crucial thing when trying to project where he’ll go in the draft. I wouldn’t completely rule out that someone being Pete Carroll or John Schneider.

To learn more about Robert Griffin III, check out this USA Today article by Kelly Whiteside.

by Kip Earlywine

I’ll be honest.  I don’t know when exactly it was, but at some point last offseason I heard the phrase “point guard quarterback” for the very first time.  Its human nature to react negatively to things we don’t understand, and so like many others, my disposition towards the idea began at a low point.  Using a basketball position to describe a quarterback?  What kind of nonsense is that?

Many other Seahawks fans were confused by the term, and yet they talked about it.  Quite a lot actually, without ever bothering to find out exactly what the definition of a point guard quarterback really is.  This led to an epidemic of misunderstanding.  To many Seahawks fans, even right now, a point guard quarterback simply means a signal caller with mobility.  Initially, I was one of those people.  But eventually I became unsatisfied with such a murky definition.  If a point guard quarterback is just a mobile one, then why not just say “mobile quarterback?”  Why invoke the point guard position in basketball?  Surely there must be a reason.

After a bit of research, I came to learn that the point guard analogy is actually a two way street, as point guards in basketball are often referred to as “the quarterback” of the basketball team.  This makes a lot of sense, as some of the greatest point guards, guys like John Stockton and Gary Payton, were more dangerous for their ability to assist than to score directly.  Yet their ability to score themselves was potent also.  Their threat to pass to teammates sometimes opened up chances to score themselves, and being a credible threat to score helped open up the pass.  Another thing about point guards, is that some of the best are very short by NBA standards.  John Stockton is perhaps the best point guard of all time, and he’s only 6’1″.  Steve Nash might be the best active point guard, and he’s 6’3″.  Gary Payton was 6’4″.   The average NBA player is 6’7″, and it was actually slightly higher in Stockton’s time.

So how does this analogy relate to this NFL?  A point guard dribbles the ball up just past mid court, holds up fingers to “call a play”, and as the offensive series evolves, he will eventually have a choice between passing and shooting.  Passing the ball to a more open team-mate is often better for scoring points.  However, occasionally a defender will not take the threat of the point guard shooting seriously and play the point guard soft.  If a wide open shot is available, a point guard will often take it.  Concisely speaking, a point guard prefers to pass, but will shoot if an open look is given.  In the NFL, the “pass” portion of the analogy represents passing the ball, and the “shoot” part means to run.  A typical point guard will take his fair share of shots, but he will pass multiple times for every shot he takes.

A critical part of this analogy is that unlike some NFL quarterbacks, a point guard quarterback will not lock onto a primary receiver all game long.  Just like how an NBA point guard doesn’t just pass the ball to his best player, but the other 4 members on his team; a point guard quarterback distributes the ball to as many receivers, at as many locations, as possible.  Doing so stretches a defense, and can help open up the #1 wide receiver when it counts.  In boxing, a common strategy is to attack where the gloves ain’t, meaning that if he’s guarding his face, attack the body, and when he guards the body, attack the face.  This kind of strategy wears down opponents and ultimately proves more effective in tough fights than just going exclusively for face hits.

As far as the shoot portion of the analogy, a good point guard must also be able to shoot the ball at least somewhat well, because if he shows no threat to do so, defenders can just swamp him without any worries about the risk that entails (being blown by for an easy layup).  That’s an exaggeration for effect, but essentially, its tougher to defend two things than one.   That said, shooting is always the 2nd option, unless the point guard really is the best player on the team (as it was for Payton and Nash for parts of their careers).  A point guard quarterback is the same.  A 5 yard run is better than throwing the ball out of bounds, and if a defense gives it to you, you slide and take it.

So to clear up misconception #1, a point guard quarterback is not a run first position, as the ability to run the football is important, but far less important than the ability to pass the ball.  A lot of people assumed that Jake Locker would be a Seahawk had he reached the 25th pick, since he averaged over 100 carries at year at Washington.  As it turns out, Jake Locker was much lower on Seattle’s draft board than many thought (through an inside source, Rob revealed Seattle’s quarterback draft board earlier this year and Locker was quite low on it).  Further, the Seahawks war room actually erupted into smiles and applause the moment that Locker went well ahead of them, just as they did when the Rams selected Robert Quinn.   Does that sound like the reaction of a disappointed group?  Jake Locker could run, but he tended to have tunnel vision with his receivers, as attested by Jermaine Kearse and Devin Aguilar having several monster games, but almost never at the same time.  He was also a big play quarterback with a 54% completion rate and below average pocket presence.  If just being a mobile quarterback was enough, then Locker was that in spades.  But clearly it was not.

So if the position is not run first, why is mobility emphasized?  There are two reasons.  The first is that a viable threat to run is yet another way to stress out a defense, and while the point guard position was designed to make a quarterback’s life easy, it ironically (or fittingly?) makes defending it a total headache.  If a point guard type checks all the boxes, he can make a defense worry about defending both sides of the field, defend every running back, tight end, and receiver near equally, and have to cover short, intermediate, and deep in near equal parts, plus defending against a quarterback running himself, and also defending against effective play action fakes and non-fakes (the running game is a crucial part of a team that runs this type of offense).  Like the boxer analogy, the ability to run is like adding an extra body area to hit.  The 2nd and perhaps more important reason for the mobility requirement is elusiveness.  The point guard role is not structured but fluid and instinctive; improvisation is required on many plays.  Great pocket presence might be the biggest asset of all to a point guard type.  He must feel pressure and use his mobility to buy extra time both outside the pocket and within it.  Jeff Garcia, when playing in his natural point guard role, was a pretty effective quarterback and huge reason for that was his penchant for completing passes at the very last instant after buying time with his feet.  An elusive quarterback can turn sacks into completions, which is why the good ones excel so much at building long drives.

Another misconception is that point guard quarterbacks are game managers.  This is almost true but not quite.  They are similar in that both types of quarterbacks strongly emphasize possession plays over big plays.  Point guard quarterbacks are known for long drives as are game managers.  Both game managers and point guard quarterbacks stress having few interceptions.  The difference is that point guard quarterbacks actually have balls about it.  A game manager type rarely throws the ball more than 10 yards down the field and typically features a below average yards per attempt.  A point guard type will pass short, intermediate, and deep, all to keep the defense as honest as possible.  Andrew Luck is an effective point guard type.  His YPA is 9.50, one of the best in college football.  Michael Vick (under Andy Reid) is an NFL contemporary of the role.  He had a 8.1 YPA last year (7.9 so far in 2011), which was good for 4th best in the NFL.  A game manager role is given to quarterbacks with limited ability.  A point guard role is similar, but given to players with a lot of natural ability.

For this reason, high accuracy has added importance for a point guard quarterback.  Incompletions and sacks lead to unfavorable down and distance, and the point guard system is built to reduce both.  This is critical, because a point guard offense is built around maintaining drives more than big plays.  Due to the instinctive, less structured nature of the role, and its high emphasis on spreading the ball, comfort checking multiple reads is also further emphasized.  Though the point guard role is designed to make a quarterback’s life easier, it is actually quite demanding in terms of having skills.  Having elite measurables is optional, but having poor innate talent with the fundamentals is not.

Finally, I mentioned before that some of the best point guards in the NBA have been much shorter than the average NBA height.  Similarly, many notable point guard quarterbacks have below average height as well.   A typical NFL quarterback is 6’4″.  The prototypical Steve Young is 6’2″.  Michael Vick is 6’1″.  Jeff Garcia is 6’1″.  I think the reason for this is that in the NBA, point guards typically play far away from the basket, so height is less of an issue.  In the NFL, height is less of an issue since point guard quarterbacks move so much in the pocket that they can usually find windows to look through, even if their lineman stand a few inches taller.  By no means do I think the role cancels out the need for certain height requirements, I don’t think a 5’8″ quarterback would succeed even as a point guard type.  But I do think that mobility behind the line helps cancel out the extra couple inches of height.  And of course, there is nothing wrong with having a tall point guard type.  Josh Freeman is 6’6″.  Its just that for whatever reason, most point guard types tend to be shorter.  Perhaps its because their height is what put them in that system to begin with.  Or because physical elusiveness in taller people is uncommon.

Regarding Keith Price:

Some of these concepts I knew from the research I did earlier this year, but it was when I watched Keith Price take over for Jake Locker about a month ago that the concept fully came into focus.  In almost every way, he is the perfect example of what a point guard quarterback is.

First, let me be clear about something.   This essay is not about discussing Keith Price:  NFL draft prospect.  Its merely to highlight Price as an example of what a true point guard quarterback looks like, without having to venture any further than Lake Washington for evidence.  So with that in mind, consider this comparison between two pro-style college quarterbacks:

Quarterback A:  69.4% completion rate, 8.62 YPA, 21 TD, 4 INT, 177.9 rating (sacked 11 times in 6 games)

Quarterback B:  71.3% completion rate, 9.50 YPA, 18 TD, 3 INT, 180.5 rating (sacked 2 times in 6 games)

Pretty close huh?  The first quarterback is Keith Price, and the second is Andrew Luck.  Both quarterback’s play the point guard role in a similar offense, in the same conference, in the same sub-division of that conference.  In fact, they actually play against each other on national television this weekend.  There are issues comparing the performances of college quarterbacks in many cases, but as both Stanford and Washington play very similar schedules and basically run the same kind of offenses, it makes a comparison worth making.  I’m hardly the only one to notice the similarities, today’s copy of USA Today made a similar statistical comparison between the two.

Luck has a small edge in completion rate, YPA, and interceptions, but Price has a small edge in touchdown passes and has been sacked five and a half times as often.  Eleven sacks allowed in six games is actually not that bad, and its more of a testament to Price’s elusive nature than his unimposing line.  By contrast, Andrew Luck throws behind perhaps the best line in all college football, with two members currently being projected in the mid to high first round of the 2012 draft.  Its just silly that Andrew Luck has one of the best interception per pass rates in football, yet has more interceptions than sacks taken.  Luck is having his best year yet: one of the very best pro-style system seasons in college football history.  And yet the unheralded redshirt sophomore Keith Price is right there with him in his first six games since being named the starter- by far the best 6 game stretch by any Husky quarterback or any Husky offense in its history.  In half a season, he’s already 5th all time for TDs in Huskies history for a single season.  The record is 28, and he’s on pace for 45 or 46.

That’s not to say that Price can hold water to Luck as an NFL prospect.  Please do not interpret this analogy as such.  If anything, the wide gap in physical attributes only furthers a point I wish to make, that a great point guard quarterback can put up elite production without all the elite measurables.

And besides, I didn’t really make this post to talk about production, though its certainly been outstanding out Price’s part.  I made this post to illustrate what a real point guard quarterback looks like.  And Keith Price is just that.  Moreso than even Andrew Luck.  More than just about any quarterback I’ve seen.  So lets get to it:

For starters, Keith Price is 6’1″ with a weight listed at 200 pounds (listed at 195 some places).  Height is not a real concern, since as stated before many successful NFL point guard types were around that height.  Price is outstanding at maneuvering behind his line, and he seems to see his targets just fine because of it.  His line may not be very good, but they are NFL sized.  Height will not be an issue for Price in the NFL.  His weight though… its a major concern.  Most NFL quarterbacks sit around 225 pounds, and 220 is considered to be somewhat fringe, although point guard types are typically lighter weight.  Michael Vick is 215, as was Steve Young, and Jeff Garcia was only 205.

Those players were effective in the role, but they were also no stranger to injuries.  This is true for Price as well.  He’s played hurt in all six games to date, namely with two bad knees and recently a tweaked ankle.  I’d be exaggerating if I said Price comes up limping after every hit he’s taken, but not by much.

That he’s put up the numbers he has in the context of his injury bug is astonishing, and also evidence that mobility is not the end all of a true point guard quarterback.  Price has got decent wheels when healthy, but he’s only had 15 net rushing yards so far in six games.  That’s fewer rush yards than passing touchdowns.  Despite this, Price’s ability to be elusive in the pocket has remained mostly intact, which shows how much more valuable elusiveness is than running ability as a point guard quarterback.

Bottom line though, Price needs to add a more weight to his frame, and cut it out with the constant injuries.  His frame is far from maxed out, and i think he could probably get all the way to 220 if he really wanted to.  I’d say he needs to at least reach 215 if he wants to be a first round pick some day.

Price’s arm strength seemed suspect early in the year against Eastern Washington.  Like Tarvaris Jackson, Price was more of a “tosser” than a “thrower,” emphasizing accuracy and catchability over speed of arrival.  That changed as the season progressed, and after the learning experience that was the Nebraska shootout, Price seemed to perfect this pass throwing:  arriving with decent zip but while maintaining accuracy and a soft catch.  That progress crested in last weeks game against Colorado, when Price had four touchdown passes (to four different targets) in just the first half, and was pulled shortly after due to the blowout score. Price has developed an impressive deep ball, which rivals Jake Locker’s despite the gap in arm strength.  This was evidenced by a 70 yard touchdown pass to beat Cal in the 4th quarter (50 in the air) to Chris Polk (!).

Price’s body language is a little tentative; he’s not as hesitant as Tarvaris Jackson, but I’d say he’s on that side of the spectrum.  Still, almost every throw he’s made has been money, and he’s only thrown 4 interceptions in 170 attempts (1 per 42.5).  Recently against Colorado, he ran full no huddle to devastating effect.  Price is an instinctive quarterback and really shines even more in a fast paced offense.  Its hard to criticize Price for not looking aggressive when the results suggest the opposite.

His throwing mechanics are pretty good.  He has a high release point, a quick arm motion, and a very nice compact tuck move that makes his pump fakes deadly effective.  His footwork needs work, and often I’ll catch him making throws flat footed with his feet spread out pretty far.  Its actually not very different from Jake Locker’s footwork in the pocket, which a lot of scouts believed was the source of his inaccuracy.  Well, accuracy hasn’t been a problem for Price.  I wonder if that speaks well of Price or poorly of his predecessor?

Price is generally outstanding on his execution, with a very convincing play action and good deal of comfort throwing on the move.  I haven’t charted left vs. right yet, but given how ridiculously good he’s been, I’m not expecting much of a split.

Price is a highly accurate quarterback, perhaps even more so than his 69% season rate indicates.  For example, against Utah he completed 73% of his passes, and of the eight total incompletions he had, four of those were drops (three by Devin Aguilar alone).   His completion rates since opening Pac-12 play: 76%, 73%, 75%.  His passes are generally either in the middle of the receivers body or leading them perfectly if its a vertical route.  I think its worth emphasizing how much the soft touch on his passes helps him, other than the mini-drop fest at Utah.  He’s suffered fewer drops than Jake Locker, who threw the ball with about as much subtlety as a bazooka.

Price has excellent pocket presence, feeling pressure without having to see it, and doing more than simply stepping up in the pocket, but moving just inches out of harms way constantly to buy time.  I wouldn’t say his elusiveness is at an elite level, but its probably on par with Andrew Luck’s.

Price regularly checks through multiple reads with ease, which is a fairly rare attribute in a college quarterback.  During the Colorado game, Price even used his eyes to deceive defenders on two of his touchdown passes.  The first was when he appeared to stare down a target on his left, freezing the safeties, then immediately turned and hit Jermaine Kearse for a wide open touchdown up the middle, almost without looking first.   Later, he would sell a stare-down in the middle of the field, then attempt to quick hit Polk on the left.  Polk wasn’t wide open, so Price added a great pump fake for good measure, before throwing a perfect pass that only Polk could catch.

I want to give a big shout-out to qbsacker5394, who posted each of Washington’s three Pac-12 games on Youtube (he also has the other three games if you check his channel).  His videos show every notable play from the broadcast, compressed into 13 to 14 minutes.  Not every play unfortunately, but still good for getting an idea.  I’ve already seen the games live, but for anyone that wants to get a better look at Keith Price (or RB Chris Polk, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or DT Alameda Ta’amu) themselves, they should definitely check his videos out.

This has become one of the longer posts I’ve ever done, and I still have things to say about Price.  But I’ll sum it up as such, Keith Price is playing at a high level, and in every way that is essential to the point guard quarterback, he’s excelled.  I’d consider him a somewhat polished quarterback that has a few things to work on, and I think its encouraging that he’s gotten better with each game as the seasons gone on.  Keith Price is a somewhat unlikely option for the Seahawks, as will probably declare in 2013 or 2014, and for the love of God I hope this front office has their quarterback by then.

But I must say, watching Keith Price’s first six games has been instructional- witnessing a point guard quarterback play almost the same exact offense as Seattle’s, from a Pete Carroll disciple no less.  And he’s done it so damn well, despite having what looks to be on the surface just average talents.  We may not get Price, but Price’s success shows that if a quarterback fits his role well enough, he can put up amazing production in a pro-style system without playing in a first round body.  If Seattle can somehow acquire Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley, then awesome.  Please do.  But in the likely event that doesn’t happen, Seattle could still find its salvation through their own version of Keith Price.  Maybe Tarvaris Jackson could be that guy.  Or Josh Portis.  Or Ryan Tannehill.  Or Robert Griffin.  Or maybe even Keith Price himself.

UNC receiver Dwight Jones deserves a high grade

The early stages of a NFL draft usually features a good balance of offensive and defensive talent. In the last seven years, 50 offensive players have been drafted within the top fifteen picks compared to 55 players on defense. In five of the last seven years, there’s been an 8-7 split in favor of one side of the ball with just two drafts edging towards the defense (nine defensive players to six offensive players in 2010 and 2006). In 2008 eight of the first eleven picks were defensive players.

The last draft that weighed heavily in favor of the offense came in 2004 when ten of the first fifteen picks were offensive players – a class that included Eli Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers, Robert Gallery and Ben Roethlisberger among others.

Aside from that, there’s a balance between the two with a slight edge going to the defense. The last few years have contained some ‘obvious’ stock talent on the defensive side of the ball – players that were projected to go early pretty much from day one. Think Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, Patrick Peterson, Gerald McCoy Marcell Dareus and Chris Long. This year I’m struggling to find a single player worthy of an absolute top-ten projection, a striking review of the defensive talent that could be available next April.

Perhaps it’ll simply be a year similar to 2004, with the early picks being dominated by offense? Andrew Luck will be the #1 overall pick and it appears likely at least one more quarterback will be drafted early. Offensive tackles such as Matt Kalil, Jonathan Martin and Riley Reiff could become high picks and with a degree of depth at receiver there’s every chance we could see an early run on wide outs too.

Even so, there’s an uncomfortable feel to a class that lacks quality defensive talent.

Many have projected Quinton Coples as a top-ten player, something I’ve argued against on the evidence we’ve seen so far. When you see the lack of alternatives on defense, perhaps it’s worth considering that someone will tap into the physical potential of Coples even if he’ll be entering the NFL with a lot to prove? Kansas City found themselves in a similar situation in 2009, choosing to reach for Tyson Jackson due to the unappealing alternatives on the board with the #3 overall pick. Coples is far from a lost cause but his physical potential and appearance on the field at the moment far outweighs his perfomance and production.

Cornerback Morris Claiborne has enjoyed a strong start to the 2011 season with three interceptions to go with the five he collected last year. Could he rise to the top of someone’s board? What about a playmaking cornerback like Jayron Hosley at Virginia Tech who lacks ideal size at 5-10 and 171lbs and will give up some plays – but is the definition of a playmaker with 12 interceptions in less than one and a half seasons? Dre Kirkpatrick gets a good review due to his height and background working under Nick Saban at Alabama, but I’ve not been impressed with his tape so far.

Janoris Jenkins is the forgotten man of the 2012 draft, but he flashed top-ten abilities at Florida. He may have transferred to North Alabama after a series of problems off the field, but let’s not ignore that Julio Jones, AJ Green and Alshon Jeffery had their worst games against Jenkins last year. If you feel confident he’s a reformed character with greater responsibility and maturity then he maintains a high grade.

I’m not a huge fan of a slightly over rated group of linebackers, but you can foresee a situation where a player like Vontaze Burfict goes earlier than perhaps he should. The same could be said for Boston College linebacker Luke Kuelchy or Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o. Personally I see North Carolina’s Zach Brown as the superior linebacker prospect so far.

The nose tackle position has taken on an increased level of importance and Alameda Ta’amu may not be an obvious choice early in round one but he has the size, mobility and potential to be a very effective player at the next level. Memphis tackle Dontari Poe is in a similar situation – having the frame and potential but offering teams more physical potential and scheme fit than proven production.

Several defensive ends are starting to draw attention – Marshall’s Vinny Curry is a battering ram of a defensive end with 9.5 sacks already in 2011. Andre Branch at Clemson is starting to become a consistent performer with seven sacks this season and Oklahoma’s Frank Alexander has 6.5. The most impressive defensive lineman I’ve watched this year – Florida State’s Bjoern Werner – will not be eligible until 2013.

Curry looks like a first round level talent so far, but he’s not an explosive player off the snap and he lacks game changing speed off the edge. You can’t fault his effort, size, mobility and effective hand-use, but teams may be put off by average straight line speed. Branch is lighter on his feet and has a greater initial burst – he’s one to keep monitoring as Clemson keeps winning. Tigers teammate Brandon Thompson impresses on tape but has an alarming lack of end product in the stats column over a four year career. Jared Crick has been patchy and inconsistent at Nebraska, but offered a skill-set similar to JJ Watt. He will miss the rest of the 2011 season with a torn pectoral muscle and could drop slightly if it impacts his ability to be 100% for draft work outs.

Mot of these suggestions wouldn’t enter the early first round discussion in previous years, but such is the class of 2012 some of these players may end up being high picks. It’s possibly less of a concern for teams in the era of the rookie wage cap, but the stigma attached to missing on draft picks can be costly for reputations and continued employment.

The question I get asked the most – and I wish I could answer it in a more satisfactory way – is what defensive talent will be available as a consolation prize if the Seahawks miss out on a quarterback? The honest answer is there will be a shortage of big name college defensive players for people to invest their hopes into. I’m yet to find someone like Colorado’s Jimmy Smith who lit up the screen and flashed under rated elite skills and unmatched potential. Last April San Francisco and St. Louis both drafted defensive ends in Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn, yet no player of that quality is making themselves known for 2012.

Perhaps of more concern for the Seahawks – a lack of great defensive talent may push teams towards one of their other great passions, the quarterback position. We saw a run on quarterbacks last year with four being drafted in the first twelve picks. Could the same happen again next April, with players being over drafted like Christian Ponder? It could happen, even if I’ve offered a less than favorable review of Landry Jones and am yet to be convinced by Ryan Tannehill. Seattle will have to be on it’s toes if the intention is to select a specific quarterback in round one.

So what can we project so far? If I was compiling a top-prospects list today I suspect it could be completely different in a months time. This group continues to ask an awful lot questions and the answers are taking a little longer to work out. This is potentially how I see the top seven players so far:

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
#2 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
#3 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#4 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
#5 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#6 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
#7 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)

If I was putting together a bigger board I wouldn’t necessarily be able to make a logical case to separate the player at #8 and the player at #22. For example, I like Zach Brown enough to put him at #8 but is he any more likely to have an impact at the next level than Justin Blackmon? At his best Blackmon has a little Roddy White to his game and maybe a little Greg Jennings. He has the ‘alpha male’ streak that could take him to the top on a good offense. He also suffers from basic mental errors that will frustrate you, he’s not a consistent hands catcher, he’s not got incredible size and he won’t run a brilliant forty time.

In terms of importance to a team, the nose tackles and defensive lineman could crack the top ten and so could the cornerbacks such as Morris Claiborne and Jayron Hosley. You come back to Quinton Coples and just wonder what he could be like if he had a consistent motor or was a little quicker off the edge?

So what am I sure about? Trent Richardson is playing at a different level this season and with the rookie pay scale making the running back position a more enticing early pick, there’s every chance he could go in the top five.

Let’s say Indianapolis has the second overall pick next April, with Miami winning the race to draft Andrew Luck. The Colts may not automatically move on to the next best quarterback as a long term replacement for Peyton Manning. They drafted a finesse left tackle in Anthony Castonzo last year and I feel uncomfortable projecting him to the right hand side given his frame and skill set. Von Miller – last year’s #2 overall pick – signed a fully guaranteed four-year $21m contract. Assuming Manning can recover from his current injury, $21m for a player who will be a day one starter and offer an immediate explosion of talent doesn’t seem like a stretch. Without the rookie pay scale you’re looking at a deal similar to Ndamukong Suh’s $68m contract with $40m in guarantees. The difference is quite incredible and it’s why running backs will be back on the agenda at the top of round one.

The 2012 draft will be the first time we see the true impact of the rookie cap, with positions like receiver and running back perhaps getting more of an opportunity as they did before the big boom in contracts. Dwight Jones has been a revelation this season for North Carolina and is the complete package at receiver. He could really help a team breaking in a young quarterback. One of Jones’ greatest qualities besides hands, speed and size is his ability to adjust to the football and make difficult catches from imperfect throws. He could be a dream pick for a player like Sam Bradford, Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton with St. Louis, Jacksonville and Carolina set to pick early again in 2012.

The end of loaded contracts could also see teams rolling the dice more often on quarterbacks in the hope of finding ‘the guy’ for a league dominated by elite signal callers. This won’t avoid reputations being tarnished by bad decisions, but it will allow teams to move on if a player doesn’t work out as hoped. We could see a continuation of last year’s boom in quarterbacks going early despite my own projection of just two players with first round grades at the position.