Today I am publishing my first projection for the 2012 NFL draft. Regulars will know how it works – the concept of the mock drafts on Seahawks Draft Blog are to create discussion and look at many different possibilities over the coming months. The draft isn’t an exact science, unexpected things happen and we’ll be looking at many different scenarios between now and April. You can see the mock draft below, scroll down for further analysis on why I left out certain individuals and why I chose a linebacker for the Seahawks.
Don’t forget to check out Kip Earlywine’s excellent piece from yesterday – it’s a great read and highly recommended. I also compiled a tape review on Matt Barkley vs Oregon this week which you can see by clicking here.
First round mock draft
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#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts will need to make a decision on the future of Peyton Manning, but if they keep this pick then Luck will be the choice. |
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#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Jeff Otah is on IR for the second successive year. Kalil’s a luxury, but the success of his brother Ryan in Carolina could influence this choice. |
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#3 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Steve Jackson’s contract includes a clause that could make him a free agent after this season. Richardson is a much needed elite playmaker. |
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#4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) With Kalil off the board, Minnesota could look to draft a dynamic receiver. A reach, but perhaps a necessary gamble. |
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#5 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) Elite potential and pro-ready, Barkley would start immediately for the desperate Redskins. |
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#6 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The complete package at receiver and a necessary target if Blaine Gabbert is going to succeed in Jacksonville. |
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#7 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Drafting a left tackle should be Arizona’s priority and although this is a reach, Martin is the clear #2 blind side blocker after Kalil. |
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#8 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Miami needs a quarterback and they need to inject some life back into the franchise. Griffin III will sell tickets. |
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#9 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) More of a right tackle prospect than a blind side blocker. Philly needs better line play to compliment their playmakers. |
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#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown has the potential to become a star at the next level. Cleveland is building a talented defense. |
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#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Consistent tackling machine with character to boot. He looks like a Scott Pioli type of player. |
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#12 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia) USC transfer with an explosive skill set. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year but need to prove neck injury is behind him. |
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#13 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) He’s made big improvements this year, but needs to keep improving to become a premier cornerback at the next level. |
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#14 David De Castro (OG, Stanford) Tampa Bay need to improve their interior offensive line and the hype around De Castro could push him into this range. |
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#15 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) The Bills need a pass rusher. Mercilus needs to play in space at his size, but will need to prove he can adapt to the 3-4. |
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#16 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) What is his role in the NFL? With limited options at the DE position, Tennessee may take a chance, but he’s probably best in a 3-4. |
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#17 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He’s enjoyed a strong season and put himself in the first round bracket. A lack of pass rush options could push NY in this direction. |
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#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Tebow situation is an odd one, but if Denver keeps winning I expect they’ll draft a quarterback in the mid-rounds. |
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#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Explosive playmaker with elite speed, the type that Cleveland lacks. Could be as good as DeSean Jackson. |
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#20 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who will appeal to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. Specialises in run support, coverage skills need work. |
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#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite talent with limitless potential who only falls this far due to substantial character concerns. |
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#22 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Talented linebacker who will bring some attitude back to the Giants’ defense. |
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#23 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) Under rated linebacker, would be a nice compliment to Cincinnati’s defense. |
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#24 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro. |
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#25 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) The Bears need to add a big, consistent receiver to their offense. Sanu will surprise people with early production. |
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#26 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia) I’ve seen Virginia three times in the last two seasons and Aboushi looks like a future pro. Could he rise to this level? |
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#27 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Perhaps it’s time to start thinking about inside linebackers in Baltimore? Te’o is the best left on the board here. |
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#28 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) Big nose tackle prospect. Houston switched to the 3-4 this year but could still use Ta’amu’s size up front to anchor their defensive line. |
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#29 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) He’s made a lot of mistakes off the field, but despite inconsistent quarterback play he’s maintained solid production. |
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#30 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor) He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential. |
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#31 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Looks every bit a future NFL guard. Perhaps a little under rated and closer to David De Castro than most think. |
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#32 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) He’s having a good year, but looks like a five-technique convert to me and that could hamper his stock. |
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There’s no Landry Jones?
As I discussed in earlier in the week. I can’t grade Jones in the first round. I also appreciate that I didn’t see Christian Ponder as a first round pick last year and he went 12th overall. There are several teams who need to invest in a young quarterback and others will argue – quite fairly – that someone will likely take the gamble on Jones. I accept that point of view and embrace that it’s a distinct possibility. However, he has a universal grade in the top half of round one that I think is generally undeserved. Is it possible that NFL teams who need a quarterback will also see things like that? Of course.
He’s an unlikely option for the Seahawks given his skill set contradicts the criteria Pete Carroll has settled on for the position (explained in several interviews). Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson and Josh Portis – the three quarterbacks currently on the roster and all signed by this regime – all have plus mobility and the ability to extend plays, something Jones struggles with in a big way. Last April, we understand Seattle’s draft board went #1 Gabbert, #2 Kaepernick, #3 Dalton, #4 Newton. Ryan Mallett, a player who had below average mobility in the pocket, was not included on the team’s board. There’s clear evidence here as to how Seattle is grading quarterbacks and I don’t expect Jones to be the exception.
It’s also important to remember how the league is adapting with a similar thought process. Players without above average arm strength or mobility are dropping (Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett) and players who can move around and extend plays are being graded much higher (Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Tim Tebow). Jones could be the latest example of a player who drops down the board because he’s a pure pocket passer, playing within a system that doesn’t demand any improvisation.
The one team I really considered was Denver. The Broncos fans appear to be turning on John Elway because he’s not so keen on a quarterback he didn’t draft and who can’t throw a football in a passing league. While the Broncos are winning, he’s struggling to compete with fan pressure for Tebow to get his chance. I suspect we could see a situation where Tebow is given the opportunity to fail next year now that it looks like Denver could end up picking in the lower half of round one. That creates a no-lose situation for Elway, who can say he had his chance if he fails, but if Tebow keeps winning (somehow) the Broncos will be successful anyway. They recently sent a large contingent to watch Nick Foles lay an egg against Colorado, so they could be considering options beyond round one.
I do believe there’s a chance Jones suffers a draft day fall and he may even have second thoughts about declaring if he gets a negative review from the draft committee. This year hasn’t gone according to plan for Oklahoma, and there could be a feeling of ‘unfinished business’ for Landry Jones especially if he’s only considered the 4th or 5th best quarterback prospect.
Other big names not making the cut: Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina), Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
Seahawks take a linebacker?
I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, but clearly there’s an opening for Seattle if they wish to move up. Carolina, St. Louis and Minnesota are no threat for Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III. Trading up 7-8 places in the draft wouldn’t cost the earth and is a logical move for a team that simply must find a long term solution at quarterback. I’m sure we’ll discuss possible trades many times between now and April, but with none allowed in this mock let’s talk about the pick instead.
Jarvis Jones is a player I’ve kept quiet about for a few weeks now with this mock draft in mind. I wanted to create a talking point in my first mock draft, anticipating that the Seahawks might not be picking within the top five to get that quarterback. The first time I saw Jones play was against Boise State, where he showed flashes of quality as an under size edge rusher. Yet it was a four-sack performance against Florida that really sparked my interest. Since then he’s gone on to record 12.5 sacks for Georgia playing in the role vacated by Justin Houston (a third round pick last year). Only Illinois’ Whitney Mercilus (13.5 sacks) has more.
Despite playing predominantly as part of a four man front for the Bulldogs, he isn’t a LEO candidate. He’s playing at around 6-3 / 240lbs and clearly that’s going to be an issue at the next level if you’re asking him to play defensive end. In Seattle’s scheme he’d work as the WILL linebacker – the role currently taken by Leroy Hill. This would afford you the opportunity to use Jones a lot as a pass rusher because he’s not getting caught fighting tight ends and he’s got the athleticism to sit in coverage and not be a liability. On third down passing plays you can move him up to the LOS and let him rush the passer. Essentially, he could be the player Carroll was hoping Aaron Curry could develop into. When you watch the way Jones moves, his quick burst and ability to explode there’s every chance he could be a 7-10 sack player at the next level.
The Seahawks defense needs more of a pass rush threat, but they’re not going to find an elite defensive end who can fit into this scheme in round one. There’s no stud three-technique as we’ve seen in previous years, a position the Seahawks would surely love to fill. Adding a linebacker like Jones could be the answer to creating more pressure and finding another big time playmaker for this defense. You simply can’t argue with 12.5 sacks in your first year in the SEC.
There are two other things worth mentioning. Firstly, Jones was recruited by Pete Carroll at USC and he spent a year with the Trojans before suffering a serious neck injury. The doctors in SoCal wouldn’t clear him once he’d recovered, so he transferred to Georgia. He had to sit out a year in Athens because of that, offering further time for the injury to heal. Will there be any lasting problems due to that injury? And did Carroll see enough potential in that one year to consider working together again in the NFL?
Secondly, this week Jones reiterated his desire to stay at Georgia for at least another year. He’s only a redshirt sophomore, but he’s starting to get a lot of attention due to his production. He was interviewed immediately after a big win over Kentucky which secured a place in the SEC Championship game. With advice and careful consideration, he may well declare (he wouldn’t be the first to change his mind). However, I feel the need to point out that Jones is saying he won’t enter the draft.
Jarvis Jones would be an okay consolation prize. Pass-focused LB in a hybrid defense that is trying to pretend it’s a 3-4. Good fit.
You really see Shanahan taking Barkley?
I struggled with the Washington pick, Brandon. After that Oregon game, the momentum has shifted where people are now all over Barkley. He’s not got a bowl game to play, that was really the last impression he will leave on the masses. I suspect he will carry that into the draft if he declares, and there will be real pressure for Washington to draft a QB. UNLESS – they can trade for Manning with Indy taking Luck. He’s not a prototype Shanahan player, but neither was Sam Bradford. They may even look at Ryan Tannehill for what it’s worth later on. A tough team to work out.
It’s perhaps also important to remember that Washington need a guy now – someone who can start quickly and produce. Barkley is as ready to start as any college quarterback I’ve scouted.
Based on what I’m seeing from your draft here, it seems kind of like a weak draft.
But then again, we actually have safeties and linebackers projected in the first round this year.
I was wondering Where Jarvis Jones would be placed. I’m glad we’re not drafting Mercilus in your first draft, he does not do it for me. And with reading Kip’s post earlier it would make sense and be relatively cheap to trade up considering the talent past 5 is around the same as the mid round picks.
How much do you think it would cost to trade up to #4 to take Barkley?
From #11 to #4 will cost at least our number one and two picks.
I think you’re looking at possibly trading first rounders and throwing in a second rounder, a second rounder in 2013 and maybe one other later pick. And if that gets you a quarterback you can believe in and work on for the long haul, you don’t think twice about it.
^ If it’s our #1 (meaning we trade #1s) and a 2nd and 4th, I’m all for it. That’s a GREAT deal for a QB. I would even be willing to give a 1,2,3 to sweeten the deal by trading up to #2. A franchise QB is THAT important.
@Rob: I personally felt that was a level drop off after the #8 pick (RG3) and #25 (Sanu). Personally, I thought the back end of R1 was more filled with R2 talent.
As for Carolina, if they keep their pick, I have a feeling that they might pick a WR (Blackmon or Jones) even though it might be a reach. All the fans want weapons for Newton and they think his mobility should be able to mask some of the OL problems.
For St Louis, I have a feeling that they’ll pick WR. EVERYONE wants a WR. Even if Matt Kalil is there, the fans will say that they still have Saffold. For RB, they’ll say that they can get a late rounder. But the fan base is pretty much unanimous on wanting a WR (Blackmon or Jones). With this in mind for Carolina and St Louis, I think Richardson would fall closer to #9 Eagles or #10 Browns.
How would you rate Matt Kalil to Trent Williams, Russel Okung (I remember you gave Okung a mid 1st grade), or other OT (Davis, Saffold, etc) in the 2010 class? I think he’s better than any OT in last week year’s weak OL class and maybe any OT in the 09 class too. Or how about Matt Kalil vs. Joe Thomas in 07 (if you started back then) or Jake Long in 08?
I know I would rate Jonathan Martin below Trent Williams, Russel Okung, and even below last year’s USC OT (forgot his name).
As for the current pick, I’m not a big fan of picking LBers because I think they can be picked in the middle rounds, but I do see that you’re seeing Scheinder picking his own Clay Matthews.
We need to do what ever it takes to get Barkley or RG3…..WHATEVER!
I’m curious why you don’t rate LBs Hightower or Upshaw with Alabama higher. They have been playing well. I’m not sure the hawks will draft a LB that high considering our misfortunes in the past. I do think it is key to the defense to have a couple good linebackers.
Speaking of defense, you have Alameda Ta’amu rated very high. If the hawks were to go after a DL would it be a tackle or an end? Ta’amu would certainly fill up some space in the middle. (yes I know he is more suited to a 3-4)
Ta’amu’s not going that high, Jim. He’s down as a late first rounder. Hightower has always looked like a mid-round prospect to me, and Upshaw is a bit of a tweener – 6-1, not elite speed to play OLB or the length to play 4-3 end. It’s difficult to project his role in the NFL.
The Patriots Draft site lists Seattle as #11 and Cleveland as #12, and they seem to update their site pretty regularly re SOS.
I understand your mock guidelines, but still, a trade up to #2/4 for Barkley or #6 for Griffin, of course, is the elephant in the room on this mock.
I’ve seen Ta’amu play and he is maddeningly inconsistent. There are times where he DOMINATES. No one is running past him, he collapses the pocket, and he offers pass rush like the 09 Cal Game, 2011 Holiday Bowl, but then there are also games where he makes you place your face in your hand. If he was consistent, he would be a surefire top 10 pick and the #1 defensive player this year’s draft.
I’ve based my draft order on another website that had Seattle at #12 after KC lost. Not done the maths myself for SOS so not sure what is correct.
@Ryan
I beleive they are taking into account the head to head matchup which has zero meaning to draft tiebreakers. Seattle has a stronger SoS then Cleveland and thus would pick after them. They also have San Diego picking later which is also wrong unless you include the schedules of the teams they havn’t played yet.
I don’t think Jarvis Jones is in the same stratosphere as a guy like Julian Peterson as a pass rusher, but watching Jones play, he looks like a natural fit here. He’s more physical that agile (and he’s plenty agile, just not elite agile), and plays sound, smart football. Kind of like Kam Chancellor playing linebacker.
Linebacker is one of the more upgradable areas on the team. I don’t know if I like the value of the pick, but I like the player and I’m impressed Rob that you found a LB who fits Seattle’s defense so well. I don’t think Jones would take our defense to the next level, but its hard to imagine that he wouldn’t make the team better.
That’s what I’m wondering. Have a free runner to create havoc, since our D-Line can obviously take up space and blockers, maybe we need a shifty LB to just gum up the works. With our talent at DB, I’m sure if the opposing QB is always looking over his shoulder our playmakers could take advantage. I’ve not really scouted Jones, but his stats are promising for what they’re worth
When Jones does declare, it should be interesting to see how much the neck injury scares GMs.
A couple other possibilities I could see for Seattle (if the board fell that way) would be Wright and DeCastro.
I do not think Seattle would actuallly draft DeCastro, but he’d be a far sight better than John Moffitt and NFL lineman will tell you that counter to conventional wisdom, right guard is actually the toughest position on the line to play. Sure, that seems like a luxury pick, but the way the defense is playing, almost any pick aside from quarterback could be argued as being a luxury. When the board doesn’t fall your way, its best to just take the best player you can. For me, that’s DeCastro. I don’t really care if he’s over-rated. He’s a good technician, he fires off the line fast, and he wins leverage. I thought he was the best member by far of the best line in college football during the times I watched Stanford this year.
I think Wright makes a lot of sense and is probably more likely. Seattle’s offensive configuration is very similar to the Eagles, you might say we have a poor man’s version of the Eagles offense. For Seattle to reach that same elite offensive level, they would need to find their own Michael Vick obviously, but they’d also need to find their own DeSean Jackson. Seattle has a good WR group, but there is no WR on this team remotely close to resembling Jackson. Wright could fill that role.
I think when its all said and done, Seattle will be picking lower than 12. A 7-9 or 8-8 finish feels likely, and if that happens I think we’ll see them pick in the 14-17 range. Its unclear how SOS will shake out with Seattle’s remaining schedule being easy on paper, but its worth mentioning that Seattle is currently losing most of its SOS tiebreakers for draft position so far this year.
Interesting first thoughts, Rob. I would have to question the value of drafting a linebacker that high, myself. Tell me…with Trufant seemingly on his way out the door, how much of a stretch would it be for PC and JS to draft Kirkpatrick in the low teens? We have seen how much Pete loves the giant cornerbacks and I’m wondering how well he would fit into our system. I don’t know that you can have enough corners in this league.
hey rob, honestly in your opinion what is the % that the seahwks trade up to draft earthier RG3 or barkley, and assuming there picking around 12-14?? cuz i seriously hope we do whatever to get one of them
Rob, Kip – If Barkley and Griffin are gone and the Seahawks are drafting in the mid-1st-round range, would it be likely for PC/JS to reach and draft Tannehill? Physically he seems to fit their desired QB profile although still raw in the mental aspect of the game, but similar profiles haven’t deterred PC/JS from getting Whitehurst, Jackson, and Portis. In the past, they had addressed urgent needs by spending resources to get Whitehurst and might have reached in drafting Carpenter. So will they do it again?
BTW, I realized this mock draft was based on the current standings, but looking at the schedule the Cleveland Browns will play the Bengals this weekend, and then have to play the Ravens and the Steelers twice in December. That could be 5 more losses. I suspect the Browns will end up drafting early in the 1st round, with a shot at Barkley.
As things stand now, I don’t think Seattle would draft Tannehill in round 1. Tannehill’s draft stock is probably analogous to Colin Kaepernick last year, and Seattle passed on CK at #25, despite being very positive about him. I do think that Tannehill is probably going to be at least among their top 4 or 5 quarterbacks. You are right in that the FO seems to believe they can cure mental deficiencies to an extent based on the players they have targeted (and not just QBs, Okung and Thomas had a lot of mental lapses in college too). I suspect that the the “wtf moments” are not as big a deterrent for them as many others. At least their record appears to suggest as much.
If Seattle feels there is a decent chance a quarterback on their board will fall to them, I’m sure they will stay put. However, its already beginning to look like such a scenario is very unlikely and trending moreso. Maybe I’m being a wishful thinker, but I’d like to believe that if Seattle knows that there’s only a 1% chance to get a QB without moving up, and the trade opportunities are there looking for partners, that they would be smart enough to strike a deal. Its just common sense. That plus Seattle not only dealt for CW aggressively, but they were very involved for Carson Palmer and allegedly interested in Kevin Kolb as well.
Well, while I know that none of them are official, almost every mock I see now has Seattle drafting Tannehill in the second round. Does this thought horrify anyone else as much as it does me? That somehow THAT could be the guy who could be the potential future franchise quarterback for us? PC/JS are much more savvy than that, aren’t they? Just saying, even the possibility makes me cringe
I know his production is down but i just can’t see Alshon Jeffry falling our of the first round.
Given the chance would the Seahawks draft Zach Brown over Jones, if LB is the way they go on draft day?
There’s two ways of calculating strength-of-schedule in the middle of the season: You can either calculate the W-L record of all opponents on your schedule (including games yet to be played), or you can calculate it with the W-L record of only the games you’ve already played. The results are slightly different, and neither is perfect.
It’s also much easier to calculate now that all bye weeks are over, and wins can be substituted for winning pct.
What I come up with:
Draft order: full-schedule SOS
1. Colts 0-10 (84 wins)
2. Panthers 2-8 (81 wins)
3t. Vikings 2-8 (92 wins)
3t. Rams 2-8 (92 wins)
5. Redskins 3-7 (74 wins)
6. Jaguars 3-7 (76 wins)
7. Cardinals 3-7 (77 wins)
8. Dolphins 3-7 (83 wins)
9. Eagles 4-6 (81 wins)
10. Browns 4-6 (82 wins)
11. Chiefs 4-6 (83 wins)
12. Seahawks 4-6 (85 wins)
13t. Chargers 4-6 (86 wins)
13t. Buccaneers 4-6 (86 wins)
15. Titans 5-5 (73 wins)
16. Jets 5-5 (78 wins)
17. Bills 5-5 (79 wins)
18. Broncos 5-5 (85 wins)
19t. Cowboys 6-4 (75 wins)
19t. Falcons 6-4 (75 wins)
21. Bengals 6-4 (79 wins)
22. Giants 6-4 (81 wins)
23. Raiders 6-4 (83 wins)
24. Texans 7-3 (68 wins)
25. Patriots 7-3 (71 wins)
26. Saints 7-3 (73 wins)
27. Ravens 7-3 (76 wins)
28. Steelers 7-3 (78 wins)
29. Bears 7-3 (84 wins)
30. Lions 7-3 (91 wins)
31. 49ers 9-1 (72 wins)
32. Packers 10-0 (78 wins)
Draft order: SOS only weeks 1-11
1. Colts 0-10 (53 wins)
2. Panthers 2-8 (53 wins)
3. Rams 2-8 (54 wins)
4. Vikings 2-8 (57 wins)
5t. Cardinals 3-7 (46 wins)
5t. Redskins 3-7 (46 wins)
7t. Dolphins 3-7 (50 wins)
7t. Jaguars 3-7 (50 wins)
9. Chiefs 4-6 (43 wins)
10. Browns 4-6 (45 wins)
11t. Chargers 4-6 (53 wins)
11t. Eagles 4-6 (53 wins)
13. Seahawks 4-6 (57 wins)
14. Buccaneers 4-6 (62 wins)
15. Titans 5-5 (47 wins)
16. Bills 5-5 (50 wins)
17. Jets 5-5 (53 wins)
18. Broncos 5-5 (56 wins)
19. Giants 6-4 (44 wins)
20. Raiders 6-4 (48 wins)
21t. Bengals 6-4 (49 wins)
21t. Cowboys 6-4 (49 wins)
23. Falcons 6-4 (50 wins)
24. Saints 7-3 (45 wins)
25. Texans 7-3 (46 wins)
26t. Ravens 7-3 (49 wins)
26t. Steelers 7-3 (49 wins)
28. Patriots 7-3 (51 wins)
29. Lions 7-3 (52 wins)
30. Bears 7-3 (53 wins)
31. 49ers 9-1 (47 wins)
32. Packers 10-0 (41 wins)
I can update this as the weeks go by.
Thanks Ryan, that’s a big help.
I’m really intrigued by Zach Brown. His speed and coverage ability would be great for our scheme, to me. I wonder what you and Kip think about him and how we would fit in our defense.
I’m a big fan of Zach Brown, seanmatt. He’s a different kind of player to Jones and wouldn’t be the same fit, because he’s not the same kind of pass rusher. But he’s got great range and the potential to be a Lance Briggs type. Big time prospect, but if Seattle is going to spend a R1 pick on a linebacker, then he has to offer a great pass rush for me.
I can see the logic in drafting Jarvis Jones: he’s a very physical, nasty type who fits the personality of this defense, and he’s also an above average pass rusher.
But Zach Brown, in my admittedly humble armchair amateur scouting opinion, I’m not really seeing it for the Seahawks. I’ve seen two games of him, and while I wouldn’t call him “soft” by any means, I think its safe to say that he’s the antithesis of nasty. He shies away from contact and makes “gentleman’s tackles.” Further, Brown doesn’t really have notable pass rush skills. Even in pass protection, he’s more of a “tackle the guy after the catch” coverage LB than a threat to stalk the passing lanes.
From what I’ve seen, I’d say that he reminds me of Will Herring type, if Herring was a better run stopper. That’s not a bad player for Seattle to add in round 3 or 4, but in round 1? Only if LB is an area of major weakness, and for Seattle that’s not the case.
Its possible I’m missing something though. I’ve only seen two games, and they both left me wondering what all the fuss was about. Kind of like when I first saw Aaron Curry three years ago (very different LB types, but both left me saying “meh”).
Having given the whole QB problem some more thought, I would have to say that if we don’t trade up to get one of the big 3 QBs, there is no reason to choose a QB until later rounds. The reason being that there are 6 teams that desperately need a QB. With the best already gone and three teams satisfied, there won’t be a rush for the rest of the QBs. I don’t see a need to draft Jones or Tannehill in the second round. Maybe draft a QB in the third, and they would be a value in the fourth or later.
Watching Miami’s QB throw the ball behind receivers was maddening!
For first round pick, you had a good choice on LB but neck injuries are a red flag, he will probably fall to 2nd or 3rd round. We have so many different needs that it is fine to take the best player available. Also in regards to your comment about someone being projected as being a later round pick, Pete Caroll has shown that he doesn’t care where the person was projected, he is choosing to fill a position. It’s just a question of which position he decides has priority.
Craig – I think PC and JS like the corners they’ve drafted enough to roll with them, but I also think they feel they can find CB’s in the later rounds. I’m not convinced a guy like Kirkpatrick is any better than what they have. But then I’m not a big DK fan.
David – I think it’d be very likely they move up this scenario to try to grab a QB.
Patrick – Ryan Tannehill just isn’t good enough for me. Yesterday was a nother bitterly disappointing performance. He created hype by winning last year, he’s been exposed a bit this season.
Jarhead – Yes, I would also be horrified by Tannehill in round two. Can’t see it – too reckless with the ball.
Joe – Alshon Jeffery is suffering from more than poor production. He’s not separating, he’s not running crisp routes or making the big play. He’s looking a poor man’s Mike Williams, and that’s not worth a first rounder.
Jim J – he’s been cleared by Georgia to play, so you have to presume his neck is now 100%. Let’s not forget he sat out last year, so essentially had nearly two years to recover. If he is fully recovered – and I think it’s safe to assume he is – then he’s a sure fire first rounder.
Something I find interesting is that LSU is rated #1 in the country, and they have held most teams to a very low score, yet they don’t have anyone ranked in the first round. Why does Alabama get all the love? Could it be that the sum of LSU’s team is better than the the players?
Morris Claiborne?
I know you’ve been a bit down on him, but where does Nick Foles fit in? Where would you project him?
Im not really a trent dilfer fan, but what he was saying on Twitter was quite interesting. Guy is annoying but he can break down QBs quite well.
Foles’ skill set seems to fit what Seattle wants, so wondering what you think of him and possibility of getting him if we miss on top guys (bark, RGIII, etc.)
If we don’t get one of the top 3, then you have to look at the rest of the pack as being about even in abilities. There will probably be a fourth QB (Jones) picked first round, a fifth in the second, sixth in the third round, etc. So If you like Foles we can probably get him in the third or fourth round pretty easily.
The top three QBs will all be tried out as starters sometime in the first year. I’m just lumping all the remaining QBs together. Keenum, Jones, Tannehill, Foles (probably a 4-5 th rounder), because they will be recruited as backup QBs. If they make it as a starter someday, it will be because the team needed them and the training system taught them enough that they can suceed.
Hey Rob,
I got to watch the first half of the Georgia/ Georgia Tech game this morning and you had my eye on Jarvis Jones. I knew his pass rush wouldn’t be on full display against the GT run-heavy offense, but I have to say, he didn’t impress me at all. You’ve seen more of his game than I have, obviously, but based on my little sample size he had a lot of trouble getting off run blocks, and even a few times on passes.
He showed good discipline in his assignments on a few run plays, and great pressure on a couple passes, but his inability to shed blocks really stood out to me. Have you seen this in his game? Is it an issue?
It’s interesting to note too, he didn’t look motivated at all, seemed sluggish and lackadaisical most of the half. Maybe he wasn’t playing to his potential because they had already locked up the division? Or didn’t want to injure himself on Georgia Tech’s penchant for cut-blocks?
I’m looking forward to watching the game tape vs. Florida tonight, thanks for the excellent site
Nate – I’ve got the Georgia Tech tape to watch so I’ll have a look. It’s not something I’ve seen too often, but he is playing DE for Georgia and he’d move to LB in the NFL. The triple option is also a really difficult scheme for defensive lineman to play against and I’m not surprised Jones struggled because it’s a heavy run offense and he’s essentially an under sized DE at Georgia.
Jeff – I see Foles as a late rounder at best. I saw the tweet from Dilfer and disagreed with it. He also said Kirk Cousins may be the second best QB in the draft last week. Foles is extremely limited.
Just read this below what do you think the chances are of Matt Barkley returning for his senior season? Certainly would be a huge hit on the qb draft class even if some pundits are to stupid to realise.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/ncf/story/_/id/7273034/if-matt-barkley-done-usc-trojans-hard-forget
@Nate: FWIW, Seattle might have the least blockable LB group in the NFL with Bryant, Branch, and Mebane all sucking up blockers at the first level. Even if Jarvis Jones has issues getting off blocks at LB, that’s a lot less of an issue for the Seahawks than almost any other team.
I sure hope we don’t make that pick. I would take burfict before him and I would take kirkpatrick or clairborne over both. No trufant next year and thurmond is always hurt.
Hey Ed,
I disagree with that. Burfict is a middle linebacker, and they just don’t carry a great deal of value. Seattle isn’t crying out for an upgrade for David Hawthorne. The team has some talent at cornerback and while I’m not against drafting Claiborne (not a fan of Kirkpatrick), really the main issue on defense is pass rush. We need to draft scheme and talent rather than names. Jones has 12.5 sacks playing as an undersized base end, but he’s got the frame, range and agility to be an excellent WILL linebacker. If you have him rushing the edge, playing the WILL on first & second down before taking a position on the line in third down pass calls, then you’re upgrading the team’s pass rush in the best way considering there’s no obviously brilliant defensive lineman in this class.
Nice job & very good write up. I like that it is unconventional & does not follow others mocks script. Take another look at the Dolphins, Matt Moore has regained a lot of the promise he showed a couple of years ago. I am not sure the Dolphins would go after a QB in the 1st other than to try & energize their fanbase.
Bucs aren’t taking G in the first. We need multiple corners and linebackers. LG is a need, but not a big one. We’d take RT before LG, it is a bigger need. And we’d take 2 corners and 2 linebackers before we’d take anyone on the oline.
Just not seeing this for the bucs.
After losing to Washington we now own Barkley, yeah???
No. Still 5 teams ahead of us right now that could use qb (colts, chiefs, dolphins, redskins, browns). Our best bet would be manning getting healthy and the browns trading up to get luck at #1. That would take a team out of the running for qb.
Agree that there’s no way the Bucs go for an O-lineman in the 1st round. Kirkpatrick makes much more sense. Cornerback is our #1 need, linebacker is our #2: all other areas of concern are secondary until at least the 3rd round.
Appreciate the feedback, Buccs fans. I would never claim to be an expert on Tampa Bay and any help in compiling these mocks is greatly appreciated. Of course, need has to fit with prospects too but I’ll certainly consider the information you’ve supplied regarding the linebacker and cornerback positions.
I am a Tampa fan; I doubt they will go guard rd. 1, though maybe they should. LG has been a problem since Arron Sears went south. I personally drool over Morris Claiborne.I agree with prior posts; I cannot see their taking anything but a corner.
Thanks for your thoughts, Mike.
The washington loss made up for the baltimore win. Assuming we lose to (49ers/Bears/Eagles) a loss to cardinals or rams would be a good thing if we are intent on getting qb. That would leave us at 5-12. Slim chance KC/Miami/Arizona/Washington win more than 1 game. While mccoy has been ok, do you think with 2 1st rd picks, holmgren won’t go up and get barkley/luck. It could be 3 qb’s go in top 5 (luck/barkley/rgIII), assuming indy (luck/barkley) miami (rgIII) cleveland trade up (luck/barkley)