It’s very important to establish why certain statistics exist.
Listening to the radio and Pete Carroll’s press conference yesterday, there were several references to the ‘good’ run defense and the number of pressures and QB hits the Seahawks are delivering.
Stats can be deceptive, however. In isolation they don’t always tell the full story.
So let’s do some fact checking using Pro Football Reference.
“The Seahawks are hitting the quarterback a lot and this is good news!”
Seattle leads the NFL in QB knockdowns after three weeks (18) and their knockdown percentage is 11.6% (sixth best).
They also rank second in the NFL for pressures (37) although their pressure percentage is only middle-of-the-road (22.4% — 16th in the NFL).
Without context, these stats suggest Seattle’s defensive line is doing a better job than many people think.
A more extensive look at the stats tells a different story.
If you blitz often, you will manufacture pressure.
If you send six or seven defenders to take on five blockers — you will have players in the backfield and you will hit the quarterback.
Seattle’s blitz percentage is 36.4% — fifth highest in the league. In comparison, last year they blitzed only 26.9% of the time and in 2018 the number drops to 18.4%.
The Seahawks are currently blitzing more than Gregg Williams (32.7%). They have blitzed 60 times, second most in the NFL behind only the Steelers (65).
Jamal Adams has blitzed 33 times so far — the second most among any player in the league behind only Shaquill Barrett (37). Had Adams finished the game on Sunday, the chances are he would be leading the NFL in blitzing.
The high number of pressures and QB knockdowns are simply a result of Seattle’s increased blitzing this year.
For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers have by far the most pressures in the NFL after three games with 59 (22 more than second placed Seattle). They also blitz 51.2% of the time — way more than anyone else. It’s 7.4% more than the second heaviest blitzers (Tampa Bay — 43.8%).
The reason the Steelers have so many pressures is directly because they are blitzing on more than half of their snaps.
Seattle’s QB knockdowns and pressures are equally manufactured because they are blitzing more than they’ve ever done under Pete Carroll.
It’s not indicative of defensive line improvement or success. It’s simply a byproduct of a more aggressive approach.
The key to success when blitzing is sacks — not pressures or knockdowns. If you are bringing the house you have to get home. If Jamal Adams bursts into the backfield and hits the quarterback but the pass is complete — that counts as a pressure but it can still lead to a big play (as we are seeing).
Seattle’s sack percentage, despite their blitzing, is just 3.1%. It’s the fifth worst in the NFL. That is the problem and that is the key statistic to focus on.
Let’s look at the five worst teams for sack percentage and how often they blitz:
Carolina — 1.7 % sack percentage, 14.4% blitz percentage
Minnesota — 2.8% sack percentage, 32.7% blitz percentage
Las Vegas — 2.9% sack percentage, 23.1% blitz percentage
Detroit — 2.9% sack percentage, 22.9% blitz percentage
Seattle — 3.1% sack percentage, 36.4% blitz percentage
With the exception of struggling Minnesota (who are missing Danielle Hunter), none of the other teams are blitzing anywhere near the rate the Seahawks are. Seattle’s sack percentage is comparable to Detroit and Las Vegas but they are playing so much more aggressively to try and sack the quarterback.
This is a failure.
They are producing sacks at the rate of teams who rarely blitz — and yet they are one of the heaviest blitzers in the NFL.
Let’s go back to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who lead the league is blitzing. Their blitz percentage is 51.2% but their sack percentage is 12.3% — also the highest in the league. That is what it’s supposed to look like.
Tampa Bay, who blitz 43.8% of the time, have a sack percentage of 9.7%.
The simple fact is there’s no comfort to take from Seattle’s increasing pressures and knockdowns. That is an inevitability of blitzing at the rate the Seahawks are. The problem they have is despite being so aggressive in bringing heat, their sack percentage is poor.
It creates a perfect storm of mediocrity. You’re exposing the second and third level of your defense by blitzing so much but by not sacking the quarterback, you’re giving them an opportunity to expose your limited numbers at the back end and find mismatch opportunities.
For example:
A downside to how much the Seahawks are blitzing Jamal Adams is that it can leave situations like this:
A LB ends up having to cover a WR in man coverage due to the pressure rules being the final eligible receiver count (#3 for the LB here) as opposed to a "like body" (RB/TE). pic.twitter.com/0vHPivMZAm
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 29, 2020
Hits and pressures are nice but the Seahawks will continue to give up a NFL-leading 430.7 passing yards per game, 6.6 yards-per-play and will blow-up the league record for passing yards conceded in a season (they’re on pace to give up 6891) unless they turn these blitzes into more sacks or they blitz less and find a way to do a better job rushing with four.
“Seattle’s run defense is really good!”
This is an even bigger mirage.
Teams do not need to run against the Seahawks and the stats make this case very well. Seattle isn’t ‘taking away the run’ and ‘forcing teams to pass’. Opponents are simply ignoring the run and preferring to pass.
There are two reasons for this.
One, the Seahawks are doing a good job applying scoreboard pressure and forcing teams to ‘chase the game’. That isn’t conducive with running the ball and ultimately it isn’t a review of Seattle’s run defense. This is down to the success of Russell Wilson and the offense.
Secondly, teams are passing for 430.7 yards per game and it’s too easy to throw against Seattle. The Cowboys had a three-play, 75-yard scoring drive that lasted 48 seconds on Sunday. Throws for 13 yards, 22 yards and 40 yards had them in the endzone. They then had a three-play 93-yard drive that lasted only 39 seconds. Throws for 52 yards and 42 yards were enough to score a touchdown.
The Seahawks gave up similar drives against both Atlanta and New England.
They’ve conceded more explosive pass plays than any other team in the league. They’ve surrendered 18 pass plays of +20 yards and six pass plays of +40 yards.
Are passing yards against everything? No. However, there’s a difference between giving up slow, time-consuming drives and giving up loads of explosive plays that lead to quick touchdowns. The Seahawks are giving up far too many explosive plays.
Basically opponents don’t need to run. They are saving their running games for short yardage and goal line situations, having thrown to get into position to score.
Atlanta, New England and Dallas only combined to run 67 times against the Seahawks — the third lowest total in the league behind only Pittsburgh (61) and Green Bay (63).
The difference between the Seahawks, Steelers and Packers is quite simple. Passing yards conceded:
Seahawks — 1292
Steelers — 708
Packers — 741
When you combine Pittsburgh’s sack percentage (12.3%), passing yards conceded (708) and running yards conceded (162) you can make a strong case for them possessing a rounded, elite defense. Last week they were ranked #2 in the NFL on defense by DVOA.
The Seahawks are in a totally different situation. Their sack percentage is 3.1%, they’ve given up 1292 passing yards and 200 running yards. This isn’t rounded at all. It’s emphatically weighted towards a negative pass defense.
Teams are having their merry way with Seattle when they throw the ball. It makes the running game a complete irrelevance.
Seattle is giving up, on average, 8.5 yards per attempted pass (second highest in the NFL). In comparison, Tennessee have the worst yards-per-run statistic so far at 5.8 YPC. So even compared to the worst running defense in the league, you’re still getting nearly three more yards per play if you throw against the Seahawks.
Running against Seattle simply makes no sense. Not because they are doing anything right but because they’re doing so much wrong in the passing game.
Media members and fans have been quick to praise Seattle’s 3.0 YPC conceded so far. That’s the third best mark in the league, behind the Steelers (2.7) and Buccaneers (2.9). Again though, this doesn’t come close to telling the whole story.
As noted, teams have only attempted to run against the Seahawks 67 times so far. This includes a combined 18 runs by Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Dak Prescott — most of which were clear short yardage situations or scrambles.
These types of runs are not intended to lead to big gains. A small sample size can easily be impacted if you have teams running mostly in short-yardage situations. If the max-gain on a play is a couple of yards, you’re not going to see a high YPC average.
In comparison, Pittsburgh’s 61 runs faced include two rushes by Jeff Driskel, four runs by Daniel Jones and one run by Deshaun Watson for a total of seven quarterback carries — 11 fewer than Seattle has faced.
The Packers have faced only five quarterback carries (four by Kirk Cousins, one by Matt Stafford). Without the high number of quarterback carries in their first three games, the Seahawks would’ve faced by far the fewest runs in the NFL.
Zeke Elliott ran only 14 times against the Seahawks on Sunday. Three of those runs came on one drive on first and goal (one from the five-yard line and two from the one-yard line, leading to a touchdown). A further carry came on fourth and 1 (converted) and another carry came on 2nd and 1. He also ran the ball from his own end zone leading to the safety, with the Seahawks wisely guessing the play-call and bringing the house to score two points.
Nearly half of his carries were in situations not conducive with big gains. So again, this impacts YPC.
Pro Football Reference has a statistic called ‘expected points contributed by rushing defense’. The Steelers lead the league with a score of 13.64. This means their run defense is helping them gain the value of a couple of touchdowns per week. Tampa Bay, who are blitzing at a similar rate to the Seahawks and have conceded a similar number of yards in the running game (200 vs 211) are gaining 10.94 points of benefit from their run defense per week.
The Seahawks are only gaining 3.22 points from their run defense.
It perfectly highlights the difference between a ‘good’ run defense and an ‘irrelevant’ run defense.
So what about the passing game? Pro Football Reference also projects ‘expected points contributed by passing defense’. Seattle’s passing defense is contributing -47.16 points per game — third worst in the league behind only Jacksonville (-53.57) and Atlanta (-48.06).
It means that Seattle’s passing defense is so bad that it’s giving opponents a near 50-point advantage week-to-week. Only the brilliance of Russell Wilson is enabling them to survive this so far.
The Seahawks’ run defense isn’t bad. It’s just totally irrelevant because the passing defense is atrocious. You don’t need to run unless you have to (short yardage). If you throw, you will be able to move the ball with ease and you will get explosive plays.
That’s the context of what Seattle’s defense is I’m afraid.
“Seattle’s secondary will make up for a bad pass rush!”
This was a common refrain during the off-season. The reality is very different.
Shaquill Griffin leads the NFL in yards given up (319). Quinton Dunbar is second (212) despite missing the Dallas game. Jamal Adams is seventh (209).
Tre Flowers has only started one game but he’s already been credited with 146 yards conceded. Quandre Diggs has given up 84 yards.
Both Adams and Diggs are among the league leaders in receiving yards per target (14.0 and 13.9 respectively).
Griffin is responsible for giving up three touchdowns — the most in the league by a defensive back. He’s also being picked on with 29 targets — second only to Darqueze Dennard (32).
Teams are completing 78.6% of their passes thrown at Flowers, 75.9% thrown at Griffin, 73.3% at Adams and 61.9% at Dunbar.
Quarterbacks have a 133.9 passer rating throwing at Flowers and a 131.2 rating throwing at Griffin.
Adams also leads the team in missed tackle percentage with 11.5%.
The second coming of the Legion of Boom? A group capable of making up for a terrible looking defensive line?
Not really.
I suspect the numbers would improve if the Seahawks weren’t having to blitz so much. Jamal Adams is a good blitzer and it’s a big part of his game but the total reliance on him as a pass rusher so far doesn’t seem to be doing him any favours.
If the Seahawks could rush with four 10% more of the time and actually win some 1v1 battles up front, then this would probably help the secondary in a big way.
However, this doesn’t excuse some of the numbers above — particularly in the case of Griffin and Flowers. They’re simply not doing a good enough job.
Rather than the secondary prop up the defensive line, the Seahawks need to improve their pass rush to take the pressure off a struggling secondary.
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I noticed you prepared this article before yesterday’s as ” Seattle’s blitz percentage dramatically dropped after the Dallas game — from 36% to 22.8%. That suggests they reduced their blitzing significantly this week — although they remain the eighth heaviest blitzer’s in the league (Gregg Williams, on 26.2%, is now ahead of them again)” didn’t get updated into the blitz percentage facts in this one. It is still a strong and valid point but with a title of fact checking…..
Nope.
Unfortunately, for some reason, Pro Football Reference update their stats on a Monday and then update them again on Tuesday with a lot of changes. I made this mistake once last season and forgot that it’s best to give PFR 24-48 hours to work out all their stats before posting.
So the ‘facts’ are accurate in this article.
Yesterday’s piece referred to numbers on PFR that simply were wrong. I’m not sure why.
That certainly makes sense, I was shocked when I read yesterday the blitzing dropped off, because watching it felt like a ton of blitzing again
A very good article. I’m not sure what to make of the DBs and what exactly is going on. Despite everything else Shaq has always been passable at staying on top and not allowing the big play. He is horrible this year. Is it because he is in press? Does he need the cushion he gets playing in cover 3? Why has Diggs looked so bad. Too busy covering up for everyone else? Did they rushed Jamal into the blitz role so quickly that he may not grasp all the coverages? Flowers absolutely no confidence. Dunbar no preseason and hurt.
In the end i guess the question is beheading or death by a thousand cuts? Blitz or base? I would think that making people “earn it” instead of these 1 minute and 30 second scoring drives from Atlanta, NE and Dallas. That is what the defense is used to. What they trained them to do. I wonder if they think that it will affect the offense in some way?
I think that’s the main issue.
If the Seahawks were giving up a lot of short passes, absorbing lots of clock — that’s very different than a 38-second 94-yard drive for a touchdown.
Being the league leaders in explosive pass plays conceded is a big problem.
Does that mean backing off the blitz back to 2017 levels? There is such a thing as sequencing blitzes better though. It looked like that 3 DL package they used at the end help force things underneath.
well said gohawks, It wasn’t even a month ago, when folks predicted top 10 safety and top 10 secondary in the league. Griffin’s play has been terrible, is frustrating . Injuries have played a part, but to have a historically bad defense is a head scratcher. I don’t think there is anyone on the d is playing well other than Wagner. It shows. This is all on Pete, no way around it.
Something that Rob’s mentioned a lot of times is that the Seahawks defense isn’t designed to play this way with constantly sending pressure. It feels like the unit is disorganized with mistakes happening everywhere. A lot of that I think is down to them not playing in their system and structure because they have to commit so much to get to the QB. Everything is falling a part behind them.
Regarding the run D, watching the game in the first half it felt that Dallas was doing us a favour by lining up and running it. It felt to me, though the rush attempts don’t back it up, that Dallas wanted to keep Elliot involved early before eventually realizing that there wasn’t a point.
Well its a good thing we didn’t give Clowney 20 million a year. With all the blitzing, he still wouldn’t get sacks lol.
But with him getting double and triple teamed others would have. Seahawks should have signed him.
They should’ve signed someone worth a crapola…
The team that signed him is also the worst run D team in the league. And he’s not helping their pass D either. No great loss there, clearly
Great research Rob, thank you.
As we’re 3 games in, I’m finding myself less interested in the nuances of who to get and how to fix this DL. We’re beyond “fix the DL” for this year. They have to do [i]something[/i] to just to avoid continuing this utter disaster of a unit. The Seahawks have squarely placed themselves in a spot where they can’t be picky and wait for a player at the perfect intersection of fit and price. They have to act now if they want a deep playoff run.
I don’t think they have to act NOW at 3-0, but they do need to act relatively soon… or as soon as the market allows in terms of trading a pick (or something) to some team with no hope for the playoffs AND in cap hell moving forward…
Is it me or:
*Does it seem like our “prevent” defense at the end of games usually gives up easy TDs that don’t take much time off the clock. Opposing defenses for years have easily marched down the field with 15 yard completions as we “prevent” the 40 yard completions. I remember this starting with the Atlanta playoff game and it seems to be happening every week this year. “Bend but don’t break” only works when you don’t break. You can give up 5 yard completions over the middle to eat up clock. But, you can’t give 15 yard completions consistently over the middle after free releases and tons of space.
*If we recruit big CBs to press at the line, why not use them to press at the line? Is it any wonder why big CBs, giving up 7 yards of space and obviously being directed to prevent the sideline (cough cough Tre Flowers at the end of the game this week) give up easy completions over the middle?
*Why was KJ Wright lined up to cover a speedy slot receiver? This seems like an obvious mismatch and led to an easy TD as Wright looked INCREDIBLY slow after being easily beat off the line without a jam.
*Does Shaq Griffin look overweight? I remember this was a problem in Shaquem’s rookie year. It looks to my eye like a problem again.
Well let’s put it this way.
They weren’t playing prevent on the 75-yard or 93-yard touchdown drives on Sunday.
They probably were on the final, game-winning defensive stop.
I will say Griffin looks slower this year, at least to my eye. I’ve noticed him closing and recovering at seemingly slower speeds this year. His play is probably not helped by our overall poor defense, but ya, other than injury or weight/conditioning, there’s no obvious reason he should have lost a step at his age.
Mike Garafolo
@MikeGarafolo
#Seahawks are hosting veteran S Damarious Randall this week, sources say. They’ve had some injuries in the secondary so Randall could be added as insurance.
Well, at least they’re not still struggling against TE’s. 🙂
The offenses they have faced, each feature 2 or 3 WRs that are top tier in the NFL.
Offenses meant to toss the ball to their WRs. So I’m not as shocked as some. The largest issue are gigantic explosive plays.
My Takeaway: we need to tackle better when we blitz. That being said, Cam and Dak are hard to bring down.
My other takeaway is that injuries in the secondary haven’t helped. Dunbar, Adams, Blair and Diggs have missed significant snaps which doesn’t help with cohesion in the secondary.
My third takeaway is a question: Does the higher blitzing and pressure rate increase chances for the big play (turnover)? Our TO ratio is quite good right now and as Pete says, “It’s all about the ball”. He’ll always take more TO’s in exchange for yards given up.
Seattle’s turnover percentage is 16.7% this year. Last year it was 16.3%. The year before it was 14.2%.
So the increased blitzing is not creating a significantly higher percentage of turnovers.
I guess but what about pressure rate? If we were getting equal pressure rates and turnover rates, maybe it isn’t about sacks but pressure?
Rattling QB’s is sometimes more about hits and pressures than sacks. And rattled QB’s are prone to errors.
I’m sorry to say this Brian but it feels a little bit like you’ve ignored everything I wrote in the article.
The Seahawks are hitting the QB more than any other team in the league and they have the second most pressures, despite blitzing more than a third of the time. They’re giving up 430.7 passing yards a game and their sack percentage is 3.1%.
Clearly this shows that ‘hits and pressures’ aren’t more important here than sacks — otherwise they’d be performing better.
But seeing as you asked, I can tell you that despite increasing their blitzing this year by 9.5% compared to 2019, their pressure percentage has only increased by 3.1% which is a negligible result. Their sack percentage is LOWER this year. Despite their increased blitzing, the sack percentage has reduced from 4.5% to 3.1%. Which is a disastrous statistic and further illustrates my point. The reason they are bad on defense is because they are blitzing more and getting home less.
In 2018 when they blitzed half as much as they currently are, their sack percentage was 7.3% and their pressure percentage was 28.5%. Both considerably higher than their 2020 numbers.
So this is the whole point here. If you blitz as often as Seattle currently are but don’t get home, you will get destroyed in the passing game. Hits and pressures are clearly not useful statistics because we can see the Seahawks are on pace to give up history-wrecking numbers in the passing game. This indicates there’s a degree of ‘manufactured production’ that comes with increased blitzing. Seattle’s terrible sack percentage indicates that in order to improve, they need to raise that number.
In previous years, when they weren’t blitzing as much and had better players rushing the passer, they were far superior in the way of sacks and as a consequence, the defense wasn’t as bad.
We now go live as we watch the Seahawks DL try to sack the QB
https://youtu.be/bjLdEjOL1s8
The trade deadline and hopeful fire sale from the bottom feeder teams will save the Hawks season from being another good not great one…and cover over the cracks of PCJS and co. awful approach to building the d line the past two seasons.
Eye opening article. Cleared up some misconceptions I had for sure. Fingers crossed Taylor comes in like a man possessed, Robinson continues to look good and improve, and hopefully they bring in a veteran to contribute… otherwise it could be a disappointing end.
Indeed.
This situation and these numbers just continue to amaze! We all expected that the pass rush was going to be bad, but can’t imagine anyone expected such poor play from the secondary! Of course the DL isn’t helping the secondary much, but they should still be better than they’ve shown.
I still agree that it all starts up front, and they need to improve the pass rush talent. So why isn’t there more chatter about the team picking up Matthews or Wake? Does it simply come down to these guys asking for to much money? Many of us keep saying they need to do something NOW after each crazy game, yet still nothing happens.
There’s certainly no guarantee the trade market will yield any help either. Sure, some guys will likely be available, but they will also be expensive, old, or both.
We all better hope Robinson is a real diamond in the rough, and that we can get Taylor on the field this year!
Rob I had a couple thoughts on the defense and I’m wondering what you have to say. First, I agree with everything you’ve said, especially now that we are seeing it play out the first 3 games of the season. Second, I feel like the pass rush takes Bobby and Adams out of their positions where they have been able to make plays, as they have to be sent on blitz instead of being able to trust their instincts and be the ball hawks we know they are. Also, we drafted shaquill and flowers, along with trading for dunbar and diggs to play our cover three scheme, however, with all the blitzing its forced them to play more man which also takes away from their strengths. Its frustrating watching how this is playing out because it puts our superstars in bad positions to make plays, and forces our role players to play to their weaknesses.
I agree. This scheme is based around sound discipline and doing your job. And yet the key players on the team are trying to do other people’s jobs in order to create pressure. It’s a desperate situation.
I think your piece makes excellent points. My only contention is in relation to your run defense argument, just in mathematical principle. Could you be “underselling“ one position and “overselling” another?
To your point, the run defense hadn’t been tested enough by opponents because passing on them works so well? But in that case one can be understated while the other can be overstated.
Seattle’s run defense has been good in a snapshot, especially in short yardage situations which usually is a tell tell of a good run defense. Secondly teams have tried to run more on them early in games (looking at attempts) but are not being productive enough to stick with it as evidenced in Seattle having at least a 15 point lead in all three of their contests.
So running hasn’t benefited teams enough to stick with it and getting so far behind has forced opponents hand to throw way more than usual. It’s thrown the game script in to weird passing overdrive based on attempts. My point being that attempts being depressed in one area can produce a false positive as being like an over abundance of attempts in another area can produce a false negative too. Acknowledging legitimacy in the acceptance of one stat and denying the legitimacy of another isn’t a fair philosophical review of the data in my opinion.
Yes, the pass defense sucks but the run defense could be good too.
I think it’s just to early to give an accurate read on both when defenses are behind the 8 ball more than offenses are due to this crazy offseason. Not having a full training camp, preseason…etc has hurt defenses more than offenses.
QB’s can get the WR’s together and get timing down, checks, route running and better practice overall as a unit than what a defense can Defenses rely on what they see from an offense to properly prepare and so in the first 3 games we’re getting blown coverage and bad DB play that should improve with more reps. I do expect it to.
Seattle’s offseason addressing the Dline was horrible but I actually left more optimistic leaving the Dallas game than expected. Collier has flashed, Reed is making some plays now and Robinson looks to be the steal of the draft and Griffin looked great as “Joker” in limited snaps. I could see this unit being adequate (not great) as the season progresses, especially if they get Green back and possibly Taylor. Mayowa missed out on a 2nd sack last week too. Adams getting healthy with the aforementioned players could be something to watch.
I remember when Trufant and Thurmond went down and some guy named Richard Sherman stepped in and dominated. Something feels that way about Robinson.
I think Seattle has a trade partner in an 0-3 Texans team. If the Texans go 0-5 (and looking at their sched they definitely can) Seattle should send a 4th or later round pick to them for a cap friendly Jacob Martin. Especially if Taylor isn’t able to play much this season due to injury and football shape.
What are thoughts in a trade of that measure with the Texans?
Forgot to mention Amadi, he was a revelation on defense this week too. I think the future this season on defenses is brighter than it looks at the moment.
To recap, Collier, Robinson, Quem, Amadi all look like they belong. There seems to be a there there with these youngsters.
1. You’ve not countered my points with any evidence though. You are just suggesting, despite all the evidence to the contrary detailed in the piece, that I’m not giving due respect to the running game. To which my response would be simply to refer you to everything I’ve already written. It’s laid out in the piece. The run defense, so far, has been irrelevant.
2. I neither think the Texans will trade Martin nor do I think he’s good enough to be the solution for Seattle.
I’m not countering your points but the philosophical view you’re using to come to your conclusion.
Your conclusion to dismiss Seattle’s “success” against the run because of the small sample size and “success” against the pass isn’t the same philosophy (Or argument) used in your evaluation of the pass defense.
The cumulative nature of both stats in this case can lead to a false read on both “run” and “pass” yet you only use a cumulative formula to discount one yet not the other.
Though teams are running “less” against Seattle because they’re passing more against them then the cumulative nature of one is bound to explode due to volume.
My contention isn’t with the evidence you’ve put forth but to how you’ve come to your conclusion based on the evidence you’ve put forth.
Seattle’s defense (run and pass) have netted them leads of 12 I in all 3 games. Not an easy feat and one that points more towards a dominant nature than one of a squeaker.
Vs Atl 28-12 3rd qt 5:05 …it even ballooned to 38-18 with 3:45 in the 4th Qt. 54 P/Att against.
Vs NE 35-23 4th qt 4:32…44 P/Att against.
Vs Dal 30-15 3rd qt 14:14 (this ignores DK’s gaffe of +7) 57 P/Att against.
That’s 155 P/Att against in only 3 games with an avg of 51.6. That volume has to be taken in account and your argument is why run when passing has been so successful, right.
1319 Total passing yards is nuts right?
439 yards avg.
But at 51.6 P/Att per game brings the avg per attempt to 8.3 which is dead last. My point is that volume and game script based on Seattle’s leads can lead to volume gained statistics just like a limited amount of attempts can too.
I’m not offering a ‘philosophical view’. I’m reporting data.
None of what you’ve written counters anything in the article.
You’re just trying desperately to make the run defense a thing. It isn’t a thing. Even Bobby Wagner says it’s irrelevant.
Got to put your players in a position to succeed.
At the risk of stating the obvious the sack & blitz point is even more obvious when the ratio is made explicit
Team Efficency (Sacks/Blitz)
Pittsburg 24.0%
Tampa 22.1%
Detroit 12.7%
Las Vegas 12.6%
Carolina 11.8%
Minnesota 8.6%
Seattle 8.5% (3.1%/36.4%)
As a percentage of blitzes Seattle’s sack rate is the lowest of the teams listed. That is, the least number of sacks per blitz — super inefficient.
NB while it’s not actually that this is the number of blitzing downs that yielded a sack (someone surely has that) it makes the overall point directionally.
Great article Rob with lots of data. Love the analytics which highlight s the smoke and mirror approach to our D so far. We all know the DL has been a disaster. But I am disappointed in our DBs and Safeties too. Diggs has given up some big plays and seems slow to the spot and not the same as last year. Shaq keeps getting beat and the numbers show. Flowers is horrible and plays with no confidence (the missed interception and the following missed tackle on Gallup was terrible). I expected more of Dunbar. Adams has been tremendous but at times he’s trying to do too much. Pete mentioned the big plays a few times in yesterday’s update. This is unusual for his defense and he said it needs to stop. I see we’re bringing in safeties for depth. Is there a reason Reid is not considered? Cost? Blackballed? He’s a FS? I also noticed Everson Griffen was mostly invisible on Sunday and so far has a grade of 49 per PFF so it looks like we didn’t miss much (so far).
BTW, is this the first piece of domino?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/everything-we-know-about-the-titans-covid-outbreak/ar-BB19xqyZ?ocid=msedgntp
One of the things I like most about this blog is your willingness to ignore the “wisdom” of the crowd and rely on fact-based arguments. In that spirit, I have a question for you: is it possible you’re not giving quite enough credit to the Seahawks’ run defense?
So far this season, the Seahawks’ opponents have run 67 times for a total of 200 yards, an average gain of 3.0 yards. Against others, the same teams have run 197 times for 985 yards, an average of 5.0 yards per carry. That’s why the Seahawks are fourth in run defense DVOA.
This isn’t meant to rebut your arguments about the weakness of the Hawks’s pass rush or alleged secondary, which are not entirely awesome. And so far this year having a good rushing defense hasn’t helped very much because all three of their opponents have pretty good quarterbacks. It might matter later in the season when they play teams with weaker quarterbacks, including SF and LAR.
This only further makes my argument for me HoBro.
When Atlanta, New England and Dallas have played other opponents, they’ve collectively run the ball three more times than they did against the Seahawks. Why is that? Because they don’t need to run against the Seahawks, as I’ve laid out in the piece.
If you don’t have to run because the passing game is so easy to gain explosive plays and move the ball, you don’t run.
And I’ve broken down why Seattle’s YPC is so small in detail here.
Rob, I didn’t mean to challenge your conclusion that a weak Seattle pass defense has led teams to pass more. You’re clearly right. That doesn’t mean, though, that the Seahawks haven’t had a very good run defense.
It also seems to me that your conclusion regarding Seattle’s low YPC is pretty much bullet proof. I’m not sure it applies to DVOA though, which is adjusted for “…down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score.”
If things continue as they’ve been going, Rams will score over 40 on Seattle. Goff is good without pressure. I’m not being hyperbolic here, they will get into the 40s. They got to 28 and 29 last year. Jimmy G will easily get into the 30s.
I’ve no idea how it applies to DVOA. But nobody can see DVOA any more because it’s behind a paywall.
It’s not behind a paywall where I am. Is it possible they’ve put up a paywall only for certain locations? In any event, the quote is from the FO website,
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
That link is to the method of DVOA. Not the actual week three DVOA, which is now behind a paywall.
Rob, I you say it is behind a paywall, I am 100% certain that it is behind a paywall on your computer where you are. But I am equally certain it is not behind a paywall on my computer where I am – or more accurately, where the FO server thinks I am.
Is there any way to add an attachment to a message? I’d be happy to send you a screenshot of their paywall-free (where I am) homepage, and/or an excel spreadsheet of the week 3 DVOA numbers.
It’s behind a paywall HoBro.
I shouldn’t have to prove it but here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/foplus/dvoa-database/total-dvoa?year=2020&offense_defense=offense
See for yourself.
That one doesn’t work for me either, but this one does – give it try:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2020
That one works. To me it seems like they’ve changed the design of their site and are preparing to make Football Outsiders a subscription service ala PFF.
So the Seahawks are now the #3 offense, #2 special teams and #23 defense.
And people wonder why we talked so much about the defense during the off-season. Look at those numbers. This team could be special. The defense is holding them back BADLY.
I realize this is a very dead horse and I apologize in advance, but for possible future reference: FO is using the “freemium” model. Your link accesses the site via the premium, paid side footballoutsiders.com/foplus. The free side footballoutsiders.com contains all of the current year DVOA data.
Well if they’ve created a paywall it’s inevitable they will head to that model. It’s not going to be free on one site and paid on another.
I think playing from behind is a larger factor than the ease of passing. Most teams abandon the run when down two scores in the second half. Most teams soften their coverages when up by two scores.
There’s a lot of nuance that statistics don’t see. I don’t think any team has run effectively against us even when interested in doing so. I think passing has been the easy route but also been dictated by the fact that they are trying to keep up with our offense which has been brutally efficient to date. So it’s a combination of many things that is leading to this lopsided pass/run defense stat.
I think that plays into the fact that Pete is undefeated in games where they give up a ton of passing yards. It almost always means you are playing with a lead when QB’s are chucking the ball all over the field and playing with a lead is a major advantage in the NFL.
I’ll take a bad pass defense and good run defense over the opposite. Nothing is more demoralizing to a team or fan base to watch a team just run you over and put up 300 yds on the ground against you. It’s like an affront to your manhood.
Brian,
They are giving up 430.7 passing yards a game.
They are on pace to give up nearly 7000 passing yards.
Whether it’s because they are trying to keep up with Seattle or not — this isn’t good. It’s atrocious.
You can’t counter the stats with ‘reasons why teams are passing’. The stats explain in great detail why the Seahawks are struggling to defend the pass.
Neither can you say: “I’ll take a bad pass defense and good run defense over the opposite.”
That is not what is happening here. The Seahawks have an irrelevant run defense and an appalling pass defense. It’s all detailed in the article.
But teams have to pass more when down by double digits too. This is where we differ on the conclusion you have based on the data you’ve presented. Is it causation or correlation?
I would surmise pass attempts per quarter or half illustrate this point. Teams throw more when behind.
I already referenced that in the piece
Rob,
You’ve commented a couple of times that you don’t see the point in bringing in a guy like Harrison, because the run defense isn’t the problem, but I’m wondering if it’s possible a guy like that could help increase the efficiency of their blitz attempts by eating up OL guys and giving the blitzers an easier path to the QB. Maybe could get that sack percentage up a couple of points. I also found it encouraging that we did get some pressure without blitzing late in the Cowboys game, though I acknowledge they were working with a patchwork line.
Maybe.
But for me the Seahawks shouldn’t be looking for ways to make their excessive blitzing more successful. They should be looking for ways to blitz less.
I guess in my mind, if they are successful more often, they can do it less and still get results (or at least fewer “false positive” pressures on completed passes). Only they still need to e pressure more consistently with 4. In not disputing that.
If you rely on blitzing for pressure, you can’t really do it less.
The key is to not rely on it at all in this scheme. It needs to be a change-up, a surprise. Not a feature.
Is that even feasible at this point though? All that is left of pass rushers is the dregs, and with more players going down each week, that seems likely to only degrade further. If we weren’t willing to pay Clowney or even EG, we aren’t likely to pay for lesser versions of them anyway.
I’m loathe the approach they’ve taken to this budget DL, but they sure seem committed to it.
I don’t think there so much committed to an approach. They’ve just done a bad job.
Week 5 Vikings likely coming into town on a short week.
I think they should be forced to forfeit. But when does the league care about safety.
How would that be more safe than moving their bye so they can wait until everything is safe before playing?
And how would that be at all a fair punishment for catching a virus during a pandemic?
It depends on how the outbreak occurred I suppose.
Teams are supposed to be staying in their own bubbles. If a group have strayed from their bubble and that led to an outbreak, then that’s on them.
Vrabel said they were planning on playing. No practice, virtual meetings and a Saturday walkthrough.
Thanks for the analysis, really lays out why the Seahawks “good” run defense is a non-factor–there’s no need to run except in short yardage. The next two games come up against (at least by the standings) not very good teams, maybe the Seahawks should experiment and test the run defense with more coverage heavy looks? Maybe it’d at least lower the yards we give up per play. At the same time, I’d be worried about giving our offense fewer opportunities to score and the defense having to stay on the field a lot longer. I think if they can go into the bye 5-0 it would be a huge boon to the season as the later two-thirds looks more difficult right now. I’m not sure it’s a good idea to tinker with the formula we have now, I.e. winning by overwhelming point totals and late game stops. But, that just doesn’t seem sustainable. If we blitz less were gonna see less pressure, so going coverage heavy might not even improve our pass defence anyway. Rock and a hard place kind of situation.
They are in an even bigger hole for Sunday.
The blitz relies on Jamal Adams. Now he’s not playing, I’m not sure what they do. Because a four-man rush that features any of Seattle’s DE’s is going to create no pressure.
You better be wrong or there’s no way we’re going to beat Rams, GB, NE, or KC in the playoffs.
Playoffs?! Playoffs?! (in my best Jim Mora Sr. voice)
Lets worry about Miami. Lot of football to get through.
I can see it go 2 ways. It may be time to go back to basics and blitz a little less. Maybe 5 man pressure at max. Put the DBs in advantageous positions and let them regain some confidence and clean up assignments. OR blitz early and often and try and build a big enough lead (like the last few weeks) and bet that a lesser talented team cannot catch them.
This makes a lot of sense to me. Especially given our actual sack percentage is so low relative to the number of blitzes and we are giving up so much over the top. Dial it back. Get the passing defense on more solid ground, then try to turn it back up a bit.
You might assume that would get the passing defense on more solid ground.
If the quarterback has all day to throw in the pocket though and isn’t troubled at all by a pathetic four-man rush, you’ll end up with the same results. Receivers and tight ends will uncover given time.
I think we understand that, Rob. But the two work hand in hand. And right now, they have all day to throw anyway. I get we are grasping at straws, but there are no magic bullets here to fix this. Not like they had much of a pass rush last year, but we weren’t giving up these kinds of passing numbers.
Blitzing by definition manufactures pressure.
The key is to make it count by getting home.
Not blitzing and relying on the worst four-man rush in the NFL won’t rectify the situation. It’ll just mean no pressure to go with no sacks and the same completions being made.
Listen — everyone knows my opinion on what they’re doing currently. I’m just pointing out that if anyone thinks blitzing less and rolling with their four-man rush will provoke different results — it probably won’t.
The one thing they had last year was Clowney who was among the league leaders in pressure percentage despite being double-teamed all the time.
Really interesting dive into the data Rob, many thanks. Especially the numbers on the points expectations on run v pass.
With how terrible the blitz happy D strategy has been, and with their best blitzer sidelined for a couple weeks (probably) I think they should tone it back, and live with minimal QB pressures. Dallas actually managed to slow down Seattle and Russ during the second half by only rushing 4 and dropping 7 to help their beleaguered secondary. For most of the second half we were not converting and forced to punt. Clearly leaving Griffin/Flowers exposed 1v1 due to blitzing is massive failure. I think its worth trying to play more coverage.
I would suggest that stats are black and white snapshots of a full-length motion picture in colour. Your article fleshes this out thoroughly. Cherry-picking stats is the artifice of lazy, even blinkered journalism. Fortunately, this article lays bare the game of confirmation bias and journalistic sloth. Nice work! Every game, even against teams like Miami and the Giants, could be nail-biters unless Carroll gets the talent and scheme right to get this team on a straighter path to the S.B.
Thank you
Washington had a DE go on IR today. Depth shrinking along with our hopes for Kerrigan.
Well, hats off to Schotty for silencing the critics and not being the topic of ire and discussion this year. He evolved and its no more run run pass punt.
We now have a defense that is an embarrassment. A predictable embarrassment we have watched in slow motion as it has been assembled over years.
Is it JS? PC? KN Jr.?
No question the talent is lacking. That seems JS, but is that also could be influenced by pete. How do you justify going against consensus football team building strategy and not fortify the trenches?
How do you not plan to spend large sums of money on FA defensive linemen, when you know it is rare to impossible to have them fall to the end of the first round? Even lazy armchair analysts know “football is won in the trenches”.
If PC is a defensive mastermind, how come he can only field one defensive scheme that relies on certain types of players? Or is he hands off and this is really Ken Norton Jr.? Shouldn’t he know that a defensive line is a necessity in that formula?
Im riding high on hope of a great Seahawks offense, but the whole offseason has made zero sense to me. I just do not get it. What/who do you change to evolve and adapt the unit for next year? Cause one of those 3 isn’t doing their job. We need competition in leadership.
The only guy I liked this offseason was Clowney! For me it was Clowney or bust I don’t like the other DE’s. The only DT’s I like are Cox & Snacks. Last offseason didn’t have the players I wanted so I’m not bothered that we didn’t make any significant acquisitions. I do like Hyde & Dunbar. The 2021 offseason could be something special for the Hawks.
Bingo. Plus teams are paying pass rushers top dollar. Half that list of FA pass rushers for next will be retained too. Which makes trading Frank Clark so baffling. Keep Clark, draft DK at 31.
I think it’s a combination of people.
Schneider and his staff have not done a good enough job drafting or signing talent for the defense.
Pete and his staff haven’t developed players to turn into quality starters.
Their best players on defense were either drafted years and years ago or they’ve been brought in via trade.
Even if what you say ends up being true, the 2021 Free Agent market is a “lay up” for Schneider & Carroll also the contracts Seattle players are on make it easy to fix a giant mess if that’s what we have here. Making mistakes late round 1 & round 2 are not organization killers so it can look worse than it really is.
This isn’t true Huskyboy.
The reduction of the cap means the Seahawks will enter the 2021 league year with only 35 contracted players and only $20m to spend to replace or retain out of contract players.
They might not be in the cap blackhole many teams are but they will face a titanic issue replenishing the roster, let alone improving weak areas.
And they will have to operate without a first and third round pick — two ways to add cheap talent to your roster.
Seeing as the college football season is virtually taking place as normal now with a few minor exceptions, the 2020 draft is no longer the ‘write-off’ people were thinking when the Jamal Adams trade was completed.
In no way whatsoever is binning off the season and banking on a ‘dynasty’ being built from 2021 a sensible suggestion.
This blitz discussion to me misses part of the issue. They arent being very deceptive in their blitz looks. They basically blitz very predictable. I can tell most of there blitz based on pre reads. Now they have had some good blitzes. And adams has some great ones. But i think much can be done to become better at playcalling and design.
Obviously we cant work miracles with our talent on DL, but a better blitz success rate would leave less explosive plays on the table.
Not really. Their front 4 are so bad, the OL doesn’t have to constantly worry about picking up the odd man. And getting creative and exotic in blitzing gives you the element of surprise maybe a couple times a game, until you get on tape and then OLs can adjust and prepare. As well, creativity in blitzing just isn’t in this coaching staff’s wheelhouse.
Im just reaching for any improvement here. Obviously the DL lack of consistent push will limit any kind of pass rush. I guess my main point is blitzing just to blitz is just a really bad plan. Which is what mlst of these blitzes look like. Id rather have half the blitzes and better planning or setting up for blitzes. The sequencing of playcalling looks reactionary rather than a well thought out gameplan. I expect maybe they thought teams wouldnt abandon the run like they had this early. Which could have made PC more worried. Thinking he had half a season to figure it out, but teams knew game 1 going in.
I’m not sure you’ll see a dramatic difference if they add in 3-4 different blitzes to mix things up.
I disagree. Id take 1 or 2 different type of blitzes each game lol. If called at the right time a really good blitz has a chance to turn a drive around. Will it fix the main problem, god no. But we made our bed on that. So if our defense is legit dead last, gamble and get some creativity in there. This D has nothong to lose. I wouldnt go crazy, but id love some more creativity calling for sure.
But have you actually studied how they are blitzing or are you just asserting a thought that their blitzes are similar? Because I don’t know for sure whether they are.
There is a timing factor to effective blitzing for sure. I think that creativity is and isn’t the issue.They are pretty darn creative with the blitzes for Adams. Last game he blitzed from 10 yrds deep on a delay and another he looped from the middle of the field all the way to the edge. I think it is predictable where its coming from. Its always Adam, Bobby or both. That can be communicated easily up front (Watch Mike or watch $ calls), especially if you keep a back or TE in. They don’t respect the front 4 so just keep an eye on 54 and 33. Blair was another blitzer they brought before he got hurt to mix it up. I don’t see Amadi doing that but maybe? So we are back to personnel again…
I agree our pass rush is not good enough but I do see things in a different way. Blitzing does not have to equate to sacks if your are tipping passes, blocking passes, or blocking passing lanes. Our current DT’s don’t block passing lanes like previous DT’s did which is why Poona may not get resigned. So far we have faced 3 stud QB’s who have not tipped off if the play is a run or pass. Again I agree our D-Line pass rush is not good enough but if you look at the plays where our D-Line knows it’s a run or knows it’s a pass they have done very well. So what I’m saying is “don’t throw the baby out with the Bath water” Also we can sacrifice 2020 to build a dynasty from 2021 to 2023/2024, I hate that reality but it is definitely the right move for the organization. Furthermore; Diggs is taking terrible angles & it’s killing us, Quill’s head is not screwed on straight at the moment, “I don’t give up plays” that simply is not true we have seen him give up big plays in the past & for him to say that after the Dallas game is absolutely nuts!! Is he refusing to study the plays over the years where he did give up the big plays? Dunbar gives up yards but I’m getting the sense he’s hunting out there & baiting his opponent. Adam’s needs work in pass coverage but I believe he’s going to overcome.
“Blitzing does not have to equate to sacks if your are tipping passes, blocking passes, or blocking passing lanes.”
Right — so how many of those have Seattle had in the process of giving up 430.7 yards per game?
“Again I agree our D-Line pass rush is not good enough but if you look at the plays where our D-Line knows it’s a run or knows it’s a pass they have done very well.”
So when they’ve known it’s a pass, what have they done to stop opponents recording the most explosive plays in the entire NFL and set a record for yards conceded after three weeks?
“So what I’m saying is “don’t throw the baby out with the Bath water””
This doesn’t mean anything unless you provide strong evidence to counter anything in the article.
“Also we can sacrifice 2020 to build a dynasty from 2021 to 2023/2024”
No we can’t. This might be Russell Wilson’s best season. And what evidence is there that Seattle will be able to ‘build a dynasty’ next off-season based on what they “achieved” in 2020?
“I hate that reality but it is definitely the right move for the organization”
No it isn’t.
How exactly are we going to “build a dynasty” with a bare draft cupboard and limited cap from having to pay Adams and others?
Exactly
Sacrifice the season?! Seattle is 3-0, in sole position at the top of the most competitive division in football, and experiencing a historic MVP-caliber season by their QB.
Yes, there are areas for improvement. There are on all teams. As bad as Seattle’s pass defense has been (in 3 games), there are 10 other teams that have given up more points. And Seattle’s “irrelevant” run defense won the game against NewEngland.
the irrelevant run D had 4 4th down stops against the 2nd best offense in football
No they didn’t
OT: Jermaine Kearse retires. Pretty solid career as a contributor. Pretty nice career
Imagine his legacy in Seattle after the SB juggle catch if the next 2 plays went a different way.
He’d be an icon.
For me he’s already something of an icon who deserves to be celebrated.
Four of the biggest and best plays any fan could ever wish for were courtesy of Jermaine Kearse.
For every couple of infuriating drops he had he also made some jaw dropping catches. That catch is probably one of the most ridiculous catches made in SB history. Also still a legend for redeeming himself the way he did vs that mess of a Packers game in the NFCCG that year.
The pinball TD catch in the SB was a favorite. Just so typical of his play. Tough, never giving up, you’re going to have to wrestle him to the ground. Defenders just too demoralized to give a good effort.
Such a beautiful signal that in the biggest game of the year the Hawks had beaten the Broncos into submission.
Looks like the Snacks have been put back in the cupboard.
If he was coming in to sign this week, it would’ve surely been done by now.
Seems like with all the injuries they are going in a different direction and rolling with the DT’s they have.
Big yikes.
The league changed the covid protocols due to the outbreak on the Titans
(1 coach, 3 players and 5 trainers I believe).
All FAs trying to sign this week more or less got placed in a holding pattern until next week and new protocols are released.
This really puts into perspective just how terrible our secondary looks right now. We’ve been incessantly going over how bad the pass rush was going to be for months, so I think it’s imperative to look at how that’s affected their coverage as you have done. But man after seeing some of those numbers (e.g. Griffin and Dunbar leading the league in yards given up, amongst other awful stats) I have to wonder how much we can attribute that to a lack of pressure up front.
Hawks could use a big dollop of this:
Good analysis, but I think you have missed a big issue.
The DC.
I saw Wright having to cover Cedrick Wilson at least twice, I should say unable to cover.
It seems like, opposite to PC’s philosophy, about setting up for success, Ken is scheming for failure.
Or maybe you are planning an article about how poor our DC is.
Or maybe you’ve completely misunderstood the point of the article?
It’s a detailed breakdown of Seattle’s 2020 defensive stats.
Not an opinion piece on a coach.
Or you’ve completely misunderstood what was posted, maybe these stats, are so bad not just from the talent that you deem to be absent, but also from the defensive schemes that are making mismatches that just south of impossible as per my example “ Wright vs Wilson”
So really just adding to yours also trying to start thoughts about changing the DC.
I definitely didn’t misunderstand anything you said.
I wrote an extensive, detailed breakdown of the statistics so far. It’s a pure stats-based article.
You then suggested I’d ‘missed a big issue’ that is the defensive coordinator.
That does not comply with a stats-based article. Me implying that Ken Norton is responsible would be a mere opinion. There’s no ‘defensive coordinator stat’ I can point to. Ken Norton Jr doesn’t have a pressure percentage or a number for targets.
There was no place for a personal opinion on the coordinator within this piece. Which is why I suggested you’d misunderstood the point of the article, by implying I’d ‘missed a big issue’.
PC talked about the play in press conference, it was coverage mistake. KJ was about to get some help my guess is Diggs. In LOB era if team throws this much LOB would had a feast on INT. Reason great/good pass rush and great players at back.
I’m with you on DC, don’t like much. I hope Dan is fired from Atlanta and we hire him back. Make Norton on LB coach he fits there.
You don’t demote a DC and expect him to stick around as a position coach, just like I seriously doubt if DQ is fired in ATL that he would come back to be our DC this year.
A lot of people want Dan Quinn back.
Maybe go and have a look at HIS defense in Atlanta.
Then realise if he comes back he doesn’t come with 2013 Earl, Kam, Sherm, Bobby, KJ, Bennett, Avril and Maxwell.
Bingo. Bringing back Quinn or Earl. ain’t fixin’ this mess. The problem is lack of talent, especially along the d-,line. The whiffs on McDowell, Collier, Green, possibly Taylor and the trading of Frank is why the team is here now.
Rob, you compared SEA with two teams – PITT and GB. Interestingly, GB ranks #1 in points scored and #21 in points allowed. SEA ranks #2 in points scored and #22 in points allowed. Isn’t that (points vs yds) what really counts? Additionally, while SEA is definitely underperforming on Defense and needs improved play up front and especially at cornerback, there’s a couple factors that should at least be given acknowledgment: 1) Our opponents have been tougher: PITT opponents are 0-9 on the season, and GB opponents are 2-7. It’s easier to have better stats against NYG, DEN and HOU who have 3 of the 5 worst offenses in football for sure, and MINN/DET aren’t exactly lighting it up offensively (lower third). So, even though SEA opponents are still only 3-6 I think we’ve clearly played a tougher schedule so far with ATL, NE and DAL offense ranking #7,8, and 1 in yds, and 6, 11, 8 in points, respectively. Hopefully with a couple good FA signings and a few (not many) weaker teams on the horizon we can improve the defense.
“Rob, you compared SEA with two teams – PITT and GB. Interestingly, GB ranks #1 in points scored and #21 in points allowed. SEA ranks #2 in points scored and #22 in points allowed. Isn’t that (points vs yds) what really counts?”
All that shows is that the Seahawks and Green Bay share a similar problem. I merely compared Seattle’s run defense to Green Bay’s. I didn’t say Green Bay were a perfectly balanced defense and the Seahawks weren’t.
What this tells me is the Seahawks and Packers are giving up a lot of points. Yet when I dig into the stats and see the Packers are giving up nearly half as many passing yards as Seattle and their sack percentage (7.8) is much higher, I believe that also tells me the Seahawks have a more serious problem on their hands.
“Additionally, while SEA is definitely underperforming on Defense”
Are they underperforming? Or are they just bad?
“here’s a couple factors that should at least be given acknowledgment: 1) Our opponents have been tougher: PITT opponents are 0-9 on the season, and GB opponents are 2-7.”
Again, you’re focusing too much on comparisons I made for certain aspects of their defensive output or philosophy. Pittsburgh are a useful example because they blitz a lot but have a far superior sack percentage. That helps illustrate the point I’m making with regards to Seattle’s blitzing and sack percentage. I referenced Green Bay because they happen to have conceded a similar number of running yards but have a far superior passing yard output.
But while we’re talking about quality of opponents, you can hardly say Houston are a bad football team. They are 0-3 having faced the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. Green Bay just beat New Orleans. Are they a bad football team? Seriously?
The Seahawks have played a hopeless 0-3 Atlanta team, a Cowboys team that should be 0-3 and a good Patriots team (that is still missing six defensive starters from last season and is transitioning to a new QB). So let’s not dwell too much on strength of opponent here.
“Hopefully with a couple good FA signings and a few (not many) weaker teams on the horizon we can improve the defense.”
Guess what else is on the horizon? Six games against the NFC West.
the nfc west isnt so hot either. SF is missing all their best players, their very best is done for the year, the Rams struggled to beat that should be 0-3 Cowboys team and the Cards just lost to DET, who are in the runnin for worst team in the NFC, if not NFL. The schedule is a lot easier than just looking at the names on it implies.
The NFC West is fearsome.
Come on.
I concede your points and acknowledge what you were stressing re specific aspects i.e. blitz, etc, although I do believe Hou and NO have been overrated as was Phil for some time. In addition to the fact we have 6 games coming up against NFC West opponents (and Buffalo) it FEELS like Hawks are set up for one of those under-rated teams to exploit us. It wounldn’t surprise me to see “FitzMagic” in our undoing. In this sense, it IS frustrating to see continued lack of action in addressing D-line FA personnel when there is good talent elsewhere on our defensive unit – Wagner, KJ, Adams, Diggs. It’s difficult for quality talents to play up to an effective level when the performance of other players creates an even bigger burden. At some point one has to question the GM and coaching, whether that is the scheme, or the selection of player personnel. Do you think Norton is on the hot-seat?
Well if this continues, Norton will be gone at the end of the season. Carroll isn’t going to fire himself or Schneider. Norton will fall on his sword in all likelihood.
It won’t fix what is mostly a talent problem though. They need more up front.
Rob. Great article… what do they say? Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics! I think it is pretty clear and
can be best proven that the defense is deficient and flawed.
However I’m still not certain as of now what the clear solution is to fix the defense both short and longer term ? Believe you’ve indicated this too but would like to explore it.
And frankly I’m a bit tired of seeing articles like this…
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1190769/moore-seahawks-10-takeaways-solutions-defense/
So how can the defense really improved or ‘fixed’? And what the likelihood of impact to IMPROVE things = 1 being the lowest, 10 highest? Not saying these are the solutions, just want to discuss options and potential scope for improvement:
– Coach em up better / lots of new parts meshing on the team ? 8/10?
– Give backups like Barton and Shaquem Griffen a chance instead ? 3/10?
– Things will get better once injuries clear and the normal balanced rotation/snap counts can be achieved? 5/10?
-Run the ball more to control the clock and protect the defense? 6/10?
– Adjust the scheme to fit the players/cover flaws?. (Steelers blitz successfully don’t they?) 4/10?
– Acquire better players before the trade deadline?. Which ones? 3/10 to 6/10 based on players acquired ?
– PCJS should rebalancing the spending/ roster next year toward the DL pass rush? Who to get? 10/10?
– Change the DC ? 2/10?
– Any other options ?
For the record, here is where Jim lost me
Barton has been lost in the linebacker shuffle but is talented enough to make a difference
Ditto – But in fairness, Jim’s view rarely is correct.
Ditto but maybe he missed Rodgers’ stiff arm on him in the playoff game last year. You know, that beastly guy Aaron Rodgers.
its an excellent take- Barton is a top flight coverage LB, he’s weak vs the run. Just what we need most.
Top flight!!????
For me the key to improvement (nothing is getting fixed in 2020, improvement is the only hope) is to acquire someone who can win 1v1 off the edge.
It’s all we can hope for now.
One guy who can generate pressure without the need for gimmicky blitzes, allowing the Seahawks to rush with four more often.
The problem is the Seahawks don’t have the draft stock to pull off a blockbuster move so they’ve got to try and find a cheap solution. We’ve discussed players like Ryan Kerrigan. There may be others who emerge.
We’re living through what 2019 would’ve been like without Houston gifting the Seahawks Jadeveon Clowney. Now they desperately need someone else to help them out. But unless some of these teams with massive cap problems for 2021 decide to initiate a fire sale, the Seahawks are basically stuck with this abomination of a defense for the rest of the year.
Thx Rob. I wholeheartedly agree it’d have the highest positive impact by getting Pass rush help fir the DE position. Frankly I’d settle for interior help too as a close second hence my post on Cox.
But I also think there are a lot of factors that can be addressed. And keen to see how they address the other things listed above given the level of improvement needed to beat those elite teams contending in the post season. One guy can help but they need to get better as a team.
Lastly, and yes I’m going to get a little bitter here which isn’t my usual preference, but why again not pay up for Clark or Clowney? Why not, please tell me what JSPS are thinking – I just don’t get it. Not even a little. In hindsight I actually wonder if paying up for Clark and losing Bobby would’ve been a better move? But with Clowney even more bizarre, Clowney for the cost of a bunch of non- field tilters ?
I think it was over-confidence. Or if you want to go further, arrogance and incompetence.
They went from saying Frank would be a Seahawk for a long time to deciding he was too expensive and would move on. They went from saying Clowney was a priority to deciding he was too expensive.
Now they’re left with a cheap, crap D-line that could be costly down the line.
Yet they’re willing to pay a linebacker $18m a year and will probably pay a safety $20m a year soon.
Absolute nonsense.
So who does this fall on, seriously? I think it is JS who screwed up the Frank Clark deal and the Clowney deal. When is he going to be held accountable?
He should be held accountable. As should Carroll — the man at the top.
It’s not good enough.
People are happy to go on the radio or write an article criticising Ken Norton. Those criticisms will probably be fair.
But it’s only right that the way PCJS has handled the D-line is also critiqued and answers are sought.
The job they’ve done fixing their self-confessed biggest priority is so unbelievably bad, there needs to be some pressure applied. There needs to be some questions asked.
I think we all know there’s a fairly certain probability those questions won’t be asked, however.
It all starts and ends with Pete Carroll Tom. Has since day one of his hiring and will till he resigns/is fired. Yes, John has a plenty large hand in it too but ultimately it’s Pete.
I agree with you Rob. Seattle needs some help off the edge. Taylor might be able to help the rotation if he gets healthy but it is too much to hope he is the answer.
One thing that could help before the trade deadline is making some offensive adjustments. A little more ball control, especially late in the game with a lead, would be nice.
Seattle has led in time of possession all three games by a modest margin. The way Russ is cooking, defenses have to respect the pass on every down in every distance. So, there should be opportunities to work in a few more runs to boost our TOP a bit and keep our defense off the field a bit.
The 2nd and 3 pass against Dallas at the end is an example of what I am talking about. If that was a run, then it forces Dallas to use a timeout. If they get a first down, then the Seattle defense might not ever have been back on the field. Our offense can help by not giving opponents extra timeouts and extra possessions.
“I agree with you Rob. Seattle needs some help off the edge. Taylor might be able to help the rotation if he gets healthy but it is too much to hope he is the answer.”
I think he’s done for the year.
“One thing that could help before the trade deadline is making some offensive adjustments. A little more ball control, especially late in the game with a lead, would be nice.”
Maybe. I’m not sure though. The Seahawks need to keep scoring unfortunately. You can’t trust the defense. And when Wilson is playing this way, it’s hard to not rely on him.
But there were situations on Sunday and against New England where they could’ve and perhaps should’ve run the ball more often. You can make that case.
that guy may be on the roster. Robinson was excellent for a first start.
I’m glad he got a sack on debut at a key moment.
But his pass rushing grade was 60.0 and it’s a bit of a stretch to think he’s the solution.
From twitter:
John McClain
@McClain_on_NFL
After a lot of internal discussion, Texans decided Earl Thomas wasn’t a good fit.
Not a good look for Earl.
the transformation of a quiet, intense, Pete’s favorite Earl to brash, locker room cancer to off field issues…boy did they brainwash him so much…
Who brainwashed him?
Earl’s always been Earl. He got married wearing a bloody crown. When he signed his second contract he went off on a rant about how the Seahawks can get by playing late round picks (like Sherman!) and it was all ‘because of 29’.
Unfortunately later in his career the weirdness of Earl seems to be manifesting in different and more unusual ways (to put it mildly). I think the difference is now his play isn’t good enough to justify his weirdness.
It’s the same negative influence which tore apart LOB, tried to undermine Pete and Russ.. unfortunately they are Hawks legends.
I’m still not following what you are trying to say. Who brainwashed Earl?
Looks like Earl isn’t going to Houston after all.
https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/status/1311036110450155522
Jinx..
My guess of why Earl Thomas is not a Texan. During the interview, Earl said “Let me say I love to be a Texan but, you have know a few things about me. Number one, I don’t play special teams, number one, I don’t like being disrespected and number one, I’ve been balling since forever so I don’t need to be coached up.
Texans Staff: We noticed you used middle finger on all those answers, Earl.
Earl: Well, it’s my favourite finger.
HaHa, love it! I can see the scene unfolding
Did he include that he doesn’t like tackling Derrick Henry?
Dude needs help off the field before he can play on the field again.
Seahawks had four players in for a visit, including former Alabama pass rusher Tim Williams:
https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1311046456292278273
No Snacks Harrison visit though. As suggested for the last few days, there seems little point in absorbing cap space with a run stuffer given the way the defense is playing and the injuries they have.
That scraping sound you’re hearing is the bottom of the barrell.
🙂 🙂 🙂
3 DL and a DB; at least they are looking at the right spots. I’m not overly optimistic but it would be a boost if they could find someone better than Moore for the rotation.
I’m not part of the “blame the DC” crowd but if Quinn gets fired in Atlanta, I would like to see him back, not as DC, but as a special assistant or something where he could help coach up the D-linemen. He was good at that when he was here.
I would happily have Dan Quinn back as an assistant for the rest of the year. Every little helps.
But people are looking at Quinn through rose-tinted specs. Here’s the reality with him:
— His defense in Atlanta sucks
— Dan Aykroyd let alone Dan Quinn could’ve coordinated the 2013 Seahawks defense it was so loaded
— The Falcons made the Super Bowl because of Kyle Shanahan’s genius, elevating Matt Ryan to league MVP
Hey now, Elwood Blues assembled quite the squad back in the day.
Maybe he can help out in pro-personnel next year then!
Am I the only one hyped for the possibility of Tim Williams? Rob?
He was rated as the #2 pass rusher to Myles Garrett out of Alabama. Seems like he could be our next diamond in the rough. It’s unusual that a pass rusher isn’t maxed out in a Baltimore defense but maybe Pete could get more out of him, Saban loved him.
I peeked up the ears a little. He hasn’t done much but he may have been a little miscast in Baltimore and Green Bay in the 3-4 alignment. Maybe as a Leo or Sam rusher he could figure out his career. Hopefully he has picked up some play strength. He’s proved nothing but we are all hoping to find a diamond like Clemons
Hyped? No.
He’s having a workout. He has two career sacks. He’s been cut twice.
D’Andre Walker waived.
They’ve had a look and decided he isn’t going to help — even with all the issues.
Ouch.
He played 1 snap Sunday. 🙁
Injuries must have really got him because he was awesome in college.
Maybe they realized Shaquem is a better fit after all and will try to get him on the PS if he clears waivers.
Phil Haynes would be eligible to be activated this week correct? It’s been 3 weeks. If he’s healthy of course.
Shaquem deserves immense credit for the way he battled on Sunday.
He aint a pass rusher though. And they already tried him at linebacker and it was ugly, so they stuck him on special teams and tried rushing him at the end of last year because they had zero speed off the edge.
Then they cut him.
I’m delighted he contributed against the Cowboys but it doesn’t change anything for me. I understand why people love him but let’s be realistic about what he actually offers.
Can somebody explain what they did with him on the last series that has gotten so much praise? Haven’t had a chance to look at it.
I think people are generally rooting for Shaquem and that’s understandable. It does cloud judgement somewhat though.
The reality is on that last series he was a non-factor as a pass rusher and he essentially was moved to a job of sitting in coverage to try and take away the underneath throw to Zeke and read and react to anything else that was short. That worked in his favour because he’s really quick. That’s not a role that he’ll ever player other than similar final-drive scenarios. He got a high grade from PFF mostly for his coverage in that final drive. His pass rush grade was poor.
That said — I don’t want to diminish the part he played at the end. He was running and hitting and giving it his all as were several others. He deserves credit for that. It’s just not any indication of any future or long term success.
not bad as a QB spy – – decent size/speed combo for that role.
as a pass rusher, he’s just not big or strong enough – he gets swallowed up by NFL level lineman.
This is a bummer. I was hoping he could be a Jake Martin-esque contributor sooner than later.
Rob,
Do you think any of the passing defense is because guys are absolutely gassed? Running the ball effectively sometimes is referred to keeping the other offense off the field. I like to think of it as keeping our defense off the field.
While I am thrilled with our passing games success and efficiency, I wonder how much our high powered rapid scoring offense is affecting our defense? This only worsens when we have high snap% making our D take the field on minimal rest.
I agree our weak D line is the primary problem.
I think it’s completely down to a lack of talent up front and a badly performing secondary.
There’s some merit to that. Dallas ran 80 offensive plays against us. New England ran 70 and Atlanta ran 77. That’s over 75 plays per game. Compare that to a team like the Vikings, who are running under 53/game or Houston running 54/game.
So ya, we’re on the field more than any other defense right now. Part of that is not being able to get a stop.
Conversely, we are giving up some really quick drives both play and TOP-wise.
The other part of being gassed though, is that our guys are still playing too many snaps because we have no rotation/depth.
Re: Run defense -> None of that means the run defense isn’t good. Bad coverage and score leads don’t make tackling running backs any easier (in fact probably the opposite).
If you focus the criteria on non-short yardage runs, Seahawks are still keeping opposing running backs and wide receivers to sub 3.5 yards/rush. The run defense has played a part in helping the Seahawks get ahead in the first half / 3rd quarter of these games. Ofc smarter teams will just never run the ball, but so far the run defense has contributed to the 3-0 start
“Re: Run defense -> None of that means the run defense isn’t good. Bad coverage and score leads don’t make tackling running backs any easier (in fact probably the opposite).”
I literally said in the article that Seattle’s run defense is merely irrelevant, not bad.
“If you focus the criteria on non-short yardage runs, Seahawks are still keeping opposing running backs and wide receivers to sub 3.5 yards/rush.”
As I said in the article — when you have such a small sample size (as the Seahawks do because nobody needs to run against them) then having a high number of short-yardage situations will severely impact YPC. And a lot of runs, we can clearly see, were goal-line situations where you literally can’t get more than a yard or two, were ‘4th and 1’ scenarios where the sole purpose is to get a yard or they were quarterback scrambles or short-yardage pickups. The article details all of this.
“The run defense has played a part in helping the Seahawks get ahead in the first half / 3rd quarter of these games. Ofc smarter teams will just never run the ball, but so far the run defense has contributed to the 3-0 start”
No it hasn’t. As the article clearly explains, the Seahawks offense is having the biggest impact on opponents’ running the ball. They abandon it in part to chase the game but also because it’s so easy to pass against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s run defense is contributing a net-positive of three points per game according to PFR. The passing defense is contributing -47.
It’s all in the piece.
“It perfectly highlights the difference between a ‘good’ run defense and an ‘irrelevant’ run defense.”
Somehow I read into that that you don’t think Seattle’s run defense is any good
The run defense is still sub-3.5 YPC when you ignore all short yardage runs, was my point. 5+ yards to go situations and they’ve still done well against the run. Leads and bad coverage don’t help with that.
Ofc the run defense has helped develop leads. Seahawks have faced a league-average amount of first half rushing attempts, and have performed well in those plays.
I ofc agree the pass defense is bad. And a bad pass defense hurts way more than a good run defense helps. I’m just saying the run defense has been good in ways that can’t be handwaved away
“Ofc the run defense has helped develop leads. Seahawks have faced a league-average amount of first half rushing attempts, and have performed well in those plays.”
It hasn’t Rusty. It’s been a complete irrelevance.
The Seahawks have established leads because of Russell Wilson. It’s as simple as that.
I’ve written a detailed article listing why the run defense has been irrelevant so far. I’m not just going to repeat myself and I don’t think a mere claim that it’s more important than I’ve suggested is a sufficient counter to the data I’ve provided.
Seahawks have faced 36 RB/WR rushes in 5+ yards to go situations this season. Those 36 plays are irrelevant, despite two of these games being nailbiters? That makes no sense.
Teams aren’t actually scoring a *ton* against this defense so far. They’re basically average in points/drive allowed, despite playing maybe 3 above average defenses. I think we both agree that’s not sustainable as teams will begin passing more and more earlier and earlier against us, but *so far*, solid run defense has led to punts and failed 4th down conversions early in games, allowing the offense to build leads
“Seahawks have faced 36 RB/WR rushes in 5+ yards to go situations this season. Those 36 plays are irrelevant, despite two of these games being nailbiters? That makes no sense.”
Yes. That’s 12 plays per game in three games where the Seahawks are giving up 430.7 yards in the passing game.
It’s totally and utterly irrelevant. I’ve written a thorough breakdown as to why. Simply quoting ’36 runs in three games’ back at me still isn’t a counter.
“Teams aren’t actually scoring a *ton* against this defense so far.”
They are giving up 28.7 points per game, which is just outside the top-10.
“I think we both agree that’s not sustainable as teams will begin passing more and more earlier and earlier against us, but *so far*, solid run defense has led to punts and failed 4th down conversions early in games, allowing the offense to build leads”
I’ve written a long and detailed breakdown backing up my assertion on why the run defense is irrelevant so far. You can’t just keep saying it’s important with zero evidence and expecting that to be a sufficient counter. So either bring a proper, detailed, data-based counter or this conversation has run its course.
Based on transactions today atleast seahawks admits somethings is wrong with defense. Hope changes bring some positive results.
This bottom 3 defense irrespective of talent level and year 3 in to rebuild from a defensive guru who orchestrated one of the historical defense must be burning a lot of folks in Hawks org including Pete. This defense is not even able to take advantage of a prolific high scoring offense on the other side.
It’ll be eating Carroll.
He’ll be having sleepless nights about it.
And to be fair, so he should. So should John Schneider.
They created this mess.
I am curious to see what incremental improvements can they during the course of the season. Defense is eating 40% of cap space for that shit show. Its the same amount on offense if you exclude Russ.
The Hawks are 3-0 but when I see Pete in his press conferences he looks like a guy who is 0-3. You know this is killing him because like the rest of us he knows they just have no talent up front and you can’t fix that now.
He can’t do it but he is basically admitting they really screwed up this off season. He is trying to fix it by changing his scheme from pressure with 4 and cover on the back end to a pressure blitzing style on the fly and right now they are just lost. Pete coaching this type of defense is like Elton John singing punk rock. It is just a mess and hard to watch.
Interesting as always! Appreciate your time and effort. Article stimulateD me, decided to check penalties. As far as I can tell Seattle’s defense has had only 7 penalties against them for 54 yds. I was curious if the absurd yardage the defense has given up correlates with a lower total of yards given up because of penalties. Maybe the corners need to be more aggressive and not so reactive, might get called for a few penalties but might get in their opponents heads a bit too…
Rob: I was listening to Danny Oneil. He said that over half the passing yardage by opposing offenses have come after Seattle has had a double digit lead. I thought that was interesting.
And my response to that is — so what?
I said in the article (why do I keep having to say that today?) that there are two reasons why teams are passing a lot. One reason is that the Seahawks are applying scoreboard pressure and the other is Seattle has an absolutely terrible pass defense.
And I am correct in asserting that.
The situation doesn’t change the fact that the Seahawks are blitzing loads, not creating sacks, are giving up historically high numbers in terms of passing yardage, are giving up the most explosive pass plays in the league and have 93-yard, 38 second drives against them.
With lot of score board pressure for opposition, we should had like a 6 or 8 interceptions. PC did mention we should have 5 interception just between Dunbar and Griffin. Remember teams were scared of throwing against Hawks. Ok i give it that we don’t have same LOB but we are dead last which is not acceptable. I think PC really felt this time because he can’t argue 1 or 2 match sample size. On bright side we can go up from here if we make adjustments.
“So the Seahawks are now the #3 offense, #2 special teams and #23 defense.”
Ok, this is not as bad as it seems. I was expecting much lower.
I heard some stat the OL is winning 60+% of the pass down snaps…. for a top 7 rating…. which is fricking unbelievable….. from just 2 years ago.
It’s going to take more than a 23rd ranked defense in DVOA to provide any comfort for what we are seeing each week.
Dolphins and Jets should help their numbers 😛
Did you watch Miami last week!!??
The girls, the guys, the swimsuits, da club, and the beach…the whole stadium is the biggest trap house in the world.
Well I worked in Miami once and managed to avoid all of those things…
Rob, this may be my favorite article of yours to date. Just when I was feeling optimistic about our defense you brought me back to reality. As a fan all I can do is enjoy what Russ is doing and hope the defense holds on long enough to add another win to the win column.
I know it was at the end of the game and Quem was ineffective as a rusher. But do you think there is something there for when we get up and the opponent has to chase to only rush 3 and drop the rest into coverage/QB spy? Or was that just the situation and wouldn’t work otherwise?
Maybe instead of blitzing we could do something completely different on obvious passing downs like drop everyone into coverage? Common sense says we’d be picked apart, but we’re being picked apart anyway a since we’re not getting enough pressure from a 4-man rush dropping extra players into coverage seems to be the antithesis that may be worth exploring.
I think in situations like that final drive, it’s a good role for Shaquem. I’m just not sure how many times it’ll happen, even though we’ve seen it twice already this year.
Daring teams to run the ball… interesting…. but they have lost 2-3 players at LB/SS, so I’m not sure if it would work now. They don;t really have a bonified NT either, unless Mone or Rush can play the middle of the DL.
Such a great read. Thank you.
Thanks Bob 👍🏻
Solari is a good OL coach. Only person clearly better is Callahan.
Has players he likes and can coach up. Improvement for sure.
Maybe the best part of the early Seahawks season, beside RW and WRs balling out.
I’m admittedly too lazy to look up the stats, but I think penalties should be part of this conversation. It seems that not only is Seattle’s defense getting gashed, but I can’t really think of any instances where our defense is causing the other team to get called for holding. Sack’s are not the end all be all, as a holding penalty will cause a loss of ten yards. Seattle isn’t getting either.
Why is it so hard for anyone in the media to simply ask PC/JS what their rationale was in spending so much $$$ on offensive linemen (none of which are household names) when d-line was an obvious need? Was their strategy to hoard o-linemen and trade them away for 6th round picks? I have to think the front office truly believed they had Clowney in their pocket until they didn’t. By then, they spent most of their cash. Their best o-line moves in order were to draft Lewis, move Pocic to his real position, let Ifedi and his penalties walk, and resign Iupati for $2.5 million. They also resigned Simmons to a cheap deal. Beyond that, I can’t justify what they did on this o-line. I don’t hate Shell…he makes fewer mistakes than Ifedi did (and is an upgrade because he doesn’t false start 2-3 times a game). They spent about $3 million wisely, and the rest was a waste.
My thinking with what they did with the o-line has to do with this offensive change in philosophy. Before they had some big boys who were great for the run game. Now they’re looking for guys that are better at pass blocking, trying to mold the offense into being suitable for Russ
I don’t think they signed guys that are better pass blockers (you wouldn’t call Lewis or Shell pass blockers). But the overall performance has been better than expected in pass pro — but there have also been stretches against Dallas and Atlanta where the protection was iffy.
So, the Hawks keep protecting Sullivan. Now we see Hollister in the game plan scoring. I wonder if he isn’t being showcased to an extent as part of a trade? We do not have too many trade chips, but maybe they could package him up some how.
Or another TE like Hollister being traded. Near in mind teams like TB have excess TEs too
I don’t see them trading ANY weapons.
They rely on Wilson too much.
If anything I think they will add weapons.
It’s all on the offense this year.
Any defensive additions are going to have to fit in the cap as is or they will have to create space by extending Lockett or borrowing from Russell.
We know they are adding one receiver as soon as his suspension is ended by the league.
I am warming to the idea of adding Antonio Brown too when his suspension ends.
Give Russ as many weapons as you can.
If the defense continues playing this way and no outside solutions emerge, they might as well do that.
Because they’re going to need to score +40 against McVay and Shanahan. Maybe Kyler. And maybe Rodgers if they meet.
It might be a signal that Parkinson’s injury recovery is not progressing.
Or there might be some sniffing going on by other teams. But mostly I’d guess they’re protecting him as a roster stash. Olsen, Hollister and Willson are free agents next year and Dissly will be an injury concern likely for the rest of his playing days, and money will be tight.
Hawks typically keep a guy that they really don’t play much. Last year it was Ursua.
Might be Sullivan this year.
Well, and BJ Finney too apparently.
(Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
I think they just like Sullivan and don’t want to lose him.
I agree with you. However, it’s my understanding that you can only Protect a player twice. My thought process Is what’s to keep a team from swiping him next week? Unless of course they brought him to the active roster. In that case they would have to make a corresponding cut. Of course they could probably just cut Willson. But it does not seem unreasonable that they move Hollister and his salary as part of of a deal.
I think you can only call up a player twice onto the game day roster as an extra option, not protect them.
But I might be wrong.
You are correct Rob. Team can only call a practice squad player twice without putting him through waivers. Can protect 4 practice squad players every week for entire season.
Thanks
Sullivan can be protected every week for entire season
We have as many TE as DE. 4 each.
We have one TE & DE on NFI. Parkinson & Taylor.
We then have 2 more TE Mabry & Sullivan on the PS, but no DE.
The roster construction blows my mind. What in the world do we need 7 TE for? Why do we have 2 more TE than DE?
Maybe this isn’t current, but it’s from the Seahawks official site:
https://www.seahawks.com/team/players-roster/
It’s staggering what they’ve done, without doubt. Not good at all and we need to keep raising that point. There needs to be some account for the way they’ve constructed this roster.
Yet no one in the Seattle media will even raise this point with PC/JS Dereliction of duty on their part.
It’s high time some challenging questions were asked on the topic.
Irvin and Green went on IR recently tbf
They both got hurt week 2 though, and not replaced. Having as many TE as DE makes no sense, particularly when we’re talking about 7 TE’s. What are we ever going to do with that many TE? We don’t even run 2 TE sets.
The fact that they haven’t replaced Bruce or Green, apart from Walker stopping by for a single snap and a cup of coffee just doesn’t make sense. They’re asking replacement level players to rush the QB while giving up more plays to opposing offenses than any team in the NFL, AND we have no depth?
Pluck somebody off of another PS. Sign Clay Matthews. Dip back into the Alliance of American Football for another Damontre Moore. It’s really about quantity over quality at this point. God help us if (can’t believe I’m saying this) Benson Mayowa goes down. We’ll be starting two guys who have about 150 career snaps combined at DE. You can’t ask them to do that, and certainly not for an entire game.
They have been moving pass rushers through the practice squad. Griffin played last week and they just signed Tim Williams. But yeah most teams if their top 3 pass rushers got injured (in the hypothetical where Mayowa is injured) they’re gonna be playing scrubs. That’s not exactly avoidable
Before the injuries started they began the year with three defensive tackles on the roster.
They had five DE’s — Green, Collier, Mayowa, Moore and Robinson (who was inactive for the first two weeks). In the case of Moore, he was signed off his couch a couple of days after Clowney joined Tennessee as an emergency addition.
That’s not enough and it certainly wasn’t adequate (as we’ve seen).
8 D-lineman + Irvin and Walker seems like a pretty typical roster construction just from a numbers perspective. I do agree with the criticism you’ve made over gameday inactives, Robinson should have been active week 2 over Willson, and watching Jordyn Brooks playing DE in the 4th quarter was exactly why
They had nine the previous two years. So it’s not typical.
They got to eight by pulling Damontre Moore off the couch the week before the season when they could’ve had him throughout camp if they’d wanted.
It was one more bizarre situation in a sea of confusing decisions.
I think they viewed Irvin as a part-time DE unlike Kendricks, and then Walker vaguely = Griffin as depth LB/DE
Moore signing was maybe held up by the Clowney stuff but he was also replacing Branden Jackson who got hurt the week earlier
Well yes, Irvin was always going to reduce down in rushing situations. But he was the starting SAM. And they did rush Kendricks a fair bit last year.
I’m not really sure the point in arguing the toss over this. They started with eight, which is fewer than the previous two years. Regardless of the reason for signing Moore, they added their eighth lineman the week of the season from the street. It was unusual and unsatisfactory.
One of the more interesting thing to me about this season has been how much offense and special teams mistakes or lack there of affect a defense. The Seahawk D has a 17.3 yard per point average, that is a good number, seventh in the league. And despite being dead last in yards allowed is 22nd in scoring defense. Initially this looks like a case of they tighten it up in the Red Zone, but that is not nearly enough to account for the discrepancy. What does seem to account for it is that the special teams and offense are not making mistakes leaving the defense in a bad spot, (DK and Greg giving away 14 points does not matter to the defensive stats.). The defense has been given an average starting field position that is near best in the league every week. Opposing offenses have to march the length of the field. This matters because even the Seahawks at a horrible 30th in the league only surrender 42.5 yards per drive. None of this is to say the defense is good or better than it seems or any of that. The pass defense is terrible and the run looks like it is at least better than the pass to the extent that no one is going to really test it unless they have a lead worth trying to kill the clock rather than going for more points or a QB so bad they have no other choice. What is notable is while there is no protecting a bad defense from giving up yards, you can give them enough yards to give up that they have a chance to get a turn over, or watch the opposing offense self destruct or dare I say it make a play to end the drive before they give up points. Thus historically awful in giving up yards can be mitigated to merely bad 22nd in points allowed and a mediocre 15th in points allowed per drive. Field position may not be what it was but apparently it still matters.
The offense and special teams is definitely having a massive benefit. Unbelievably so. After all, according to PFR Seattle’s passing defense is giving them a 47 point disadvantage every week. So the fact they are 3-0 shows how impactful the offense and special teams needs to be.
Nice post John. Some really good info in there, and I agree with your conclusion.
Can’t be giving up many short fields. That sure cuts the already slim margin for error down to the razors edge.
Maybe I missed it, but has there been much talk about how often SEA is having the LEO rush from a 2 point stance? I’ve seen quite a few plays where the 2 DT and the 5T line up in the 3 point between the outside shoulders of the G and the SAM and LEO are both standing on the end over the T/TE. Both Mayowa and Robinson were used as stand up rushers in the game on Sunday. I noticed it in the game last week too. My memory could be failing me, but I don’t remember nearly as many times in the past where the LEO didn’t have his hand in the ground.
“Jamal Adams is a good blitzer and it’s a big part of his game but the total reliance on him as a pass rusher so far doesn’t seem to be doing him any favours”. Good analysis, Rob, I was dying for them to stop blitzing him. They are making the secondary a man down on half of plays. I think they have some talent in the team, but they aren’t using it well. Shaquem was effective as a pass rusher at times last year and came in and was effective vs. Dallas. Alton Robinson never should have been inactive. KJ shouldn’t be covering a speedy WR. Mistakes have been made.
I don’t think Shaquem was effective as a pass rusher. I didn’t notice any wins and from his 12 pass rush snaps on Sunday, he received only a 60.9 grade from PFF. For me he’s not shown anything as a viable rush option and it’s one of the main reasons he was cut. He’s practically a position-less player at this point.
It was great to see Alton Robinson get a sack and he should be active and getting snaps, 100%. I also think we need to be fair to him. He’s a fifth round rookie who received a 61.0 pass rushing grade for his 19 snaps. The sack was nice but we shouldn’t expect too much.
If you’re going to blitz as often as the Seahawks are you can’t have KJ Wright in man-coverage.
Shaquem is a great story but he is nothing more than a ST player. He has ZERO sacks in the regular season since he entered the league. Great effort guy, great inspirational story, but that only goes so far.
I agree
He seems to have been chosen as the Seattle media darling though. I’ve seen more tweets about him and his practice squad/roster status this week than about the lack of pass rush and atrocious defense played so far.
Rob, do you think Shaquem could serve as a blitzer and roamer ala Adams while he recovers from his groin strain? He certainly has the speed to do and play in the box. Thoughts?
Maybe. I’m not really sure though. Shaquem feels like a player without a position to me.
Looks like the players’ union will be pushing for grass fields across the board. Will be interesting to see if it happens. I guess if the injury numbers are that obvious, there’s not much choice. (though not all artificial turf fields from 2012-present are equal, so I’d like to see some numbers on the more recently-installed turf fields.)
I haven’t read the piece or studied the issue but I’m surprised. Grass comes with its own issues. And we’ve seen plenty of teams who are incapable of looking after their turf which makes it particularly dangerous.
This is the crux of the argument:
tl;dr for the discussion here:
– higher injury rate for non-contact injuries (above paragraph)
– besides the injury data, joints always feel more sore after being on turf than on grass (grass absorbs more of the force)
– stadiums like Arizona and Vegas have shown it is possible to do natural grass in any climate, indoors or outdoors (they both have retractable systems).
– Therefore, it’s the best for players (safer), coaches (keeping players healthy), and owners (protecting their investments) to play on natural grass and the NFLPA will push for it until a clear breakthrough in turf technology is made and injury risk on both surfaces is equal.
St Louis lost the Rams and SD lost the Chargers due in large part to stadium finance/renovation issues. Asking every team with turf (12 of them) to pivot to grass is kind of a big ask.
You can’t just add a retractable roof to an existing stadium without a hefty price tag. Others are domes, that would require some elaborate lighting/irrigation systems (ATL, NO)
Some more temperate cities could probably make the switch (SEA, HOU).
Cities like Buffalo & NE get pounded with snow in the later part of the year. Those fields would undoubtedly be a mess come January.
That being said, if the numbers tell that tale… I would think a team (who plays half of their games in their own stadium) with turf would see if making the switch is feasible.
Oh, absolutely. It’s a huge ask. Really it has to be done in harmony with the design of the whole stadium. (Climate, roof, playing surface, etc.)
I really enjoyed watching this series on the new Vegas stadium (if you can stomach Mark Davis’ haircut in the episodes he appears…🙃). Gives an inside look at everything that goes into building a stadium, and of course the price tag is huge.
From The Ground Up: Inside the building of Allegiant Stadium
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhsC9xKDhZCICB3R7IFdCfPgDIpZztURC
And Vegas had the luxury of choosing a brand new location that had room to do the retractable grass field, but other downtown stadiums will find it difficult or impossible to have enough space for it, not to mention the cost of implementing it.
I think the more feasible option in the short term would be to survey the players to see which turf stadiums they find the best/safest to play on and if there is a majority, steer towards that type while investing in bettering the technology.
Here’s a direct link to the segment where they talk about the grass in the final episode if anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/3vj8V3n4o_s?list=PLhsC9xKDhZCICB3R7IFdCfPgDIpZztURC&t=91
2 minutes there, and then it continues at the 10:50 mark.
And if you just want to check out the final product, go straight to 14:50.
Like the disaster that is FedEx Field in D.C.
Exactly.
That’s why I’m interested in seeing the turf vs. grass injury data qualified a little bit better and reduced to a more recent time period. I mean, why randomly start with 2012? Is that the first year they collected data on this, or did it just happen to make their conclusions look better? And I would guess that almost all stadiums have upgraded their turf many times since 2012.
And as for the argument about aching joints, I would bet 95% of players prefer to have uniform traction and be able to cut like they want to on a turf field than to slip all over the place with a slightly lower injury rate on a grass field. Tretter speaking as a trench player doesn’t need to cut like a skill player, but he does need to anchor to hold a block, which on a muddy grass field can be near impossible.
IMO, they need to have some rules and QA/QC assurances for the field that can be enforced. Some of these stadiums host a lot of other games, and the fields get destroyed. Two of the stadiums are now shared with 16 home games per year instead of 8.
Wouldn’t the home team ask to convert the field to grass if turf is an issue. It may boil down more for players accustomed to one type of field and then have to play on different type more during a particular season with maintenance being a big factor.
Interesting thread on penalties this season. Open for interpretation as to why holding is down by almost half.
https://twitter.com/robpizzola/status/1311006691119554561
Great find SM.
Was there any kind of thread this summer from the competition committee or the league in general talking about a change in the way things are called? I don’t recall seeing it but that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.
The holding is especially interesting since so much of the league is passing so much. Definitely seems like there was a change in the process.
https://twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1311326800648134656
The whole situation seems strange.
Visit this week. Now going into protocol now, so can ‘presumably’ have a visit with Seattle next week.
But if nothing else, at least Josina got to tweet that Snacks had told her. That’s the vital information we all needed. And her tweet is typically confusing AF. It’s good to retain some normality during this crazy year.
It is weird. Seahawks are the most likely playoff team that offered him right? Maybe a handshake deal to give him some time to at least start moving around and get football active? Also to let us pursue a trade and figure out the money situation?
Maybe he’s trying to get down from 380…
“ Seahawks are the most likely playoff team that offered him right?”
I read Packers are interested too.
Sounds like Bears are next in line
Meh.
Still don’t get the appeal. Fans maybe just reacting to a big name.
The Seahawks need players who can impact opponents in the passing game, not a big, heavy, run stuffing DT.
What they need and what they’re actually doing haven’t intersected much this offseason.
True
Comment of the day.
I think we’ll just continue to see more of that from her to market herself to employers.
Josina who…?
No no, we are just monitoring the situation LOL 😀
https://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/2020/09/tim-williams/
Not sure if “NFL draft diamonds” is a reputable site but they say the Hawks just signed Tim Williams to the PS.
I think they are fine. They do good interviews and have contact directly with a lot of prospects. Just not used to seeing them in the business of breaking any news, so I guess we’ll just have to see.
They are. Great website. They teach guys a lot. Have a real good staff there.
Is this Dolphins game a trap game? All the injuries and a team in the Dolphins that isn’t good but has nothing to lose. Seems to be shaping up for one imo.
Also, when will the wheels come off the Hawks? When will we see behind the veneer and see the reality of a team so dependent on letting Russ cook? We know that’s the reality, but when will it bite us in the behind?
I don’t think it’s a trap game.
I think it’s merely a game.
They ended last season strongly. They appear to be well coached with a very capable offense.
It’s a tough game on the road.
A game, but a potentially challenging game.
We have the type of defense that Fitzpatrick can light up if he’s having a good day. Heat could also be a factor, it’s boiling hot in Miami right now.
Wilson is on a hot streak but statistically he’s due for some regression.
It’s a difficult game.
And if Wilson has an off day this season the defense, as we can see, isn’t going to bail them out.
Fire up Fitzpatrick and the Dolphin WRs in fantasy if you got ’em.
Apparently this is for real, lmao
I just know Jerruh watched him leading that game winning drive and kept muttering “that little fucker” under his breath. Guarantee he’s not alone.
Wentz has never recovered from losing Frank Reich
Ryan Neal onto the roster.
Williams & Randall to the practise squad.
Still an open spot on the roster for some reason, as has been the case for a few days now.
No idea why.
I believe Pete said Shaquem would fill that spot? Or am I mistaken. It’s really confusing with all the changes.
But he hasn’t filled that spot.
They have called up Neal. Not Shaquem.
Instead they’ve chosen to protect Shaquem on the practise squad and presumably will make him eligible for Sunday over the weekend, as they did last week.
maybe they are interested in a PS player from another team?
I think Williams and Randall to the PS are good moves.
As silly as it sounds, maybe they’re saving a bit of cap if they feel like they don’t need to have the roster spot filled right now anyway?
Or maybe they activate Haynes.
Maybe move Dissly to a spot along the DL? He converted from DE at UW.
He was recruited as a defensive end, but I don’t think he ever played an in game snap on the defensive line at UW…
Really? I thought he played at DE as a true frosh in 2014 and was a regular contributor in 2016. He was never a starter, but he made some plays. Am I confusing him with someone else? I remember he made the switch to TE in 2017.
Checkers v. Chess
The question begs: are the Seahawk players untalented? In looking at each individual sans statistics you could make the argument that some of them are pretty good athletes. Bobby Wagoner, Jarran Reed, Poona Ford, KJ, Griffen, Diggs, Collier, Mayowa….seems like each has at times demonstrated a little talent.
If you were to assume there is a modicum of talent in that bunch, what else could be the problem? I know this is impossible but maybe, just maybe, they are simply not very good at winning. I know, crazy. If the NFL is the best football in the world maybe there are some coaches that are smarter than others. Maybe you need to not just execute but actually be better at scheming and deception because the other team is trying to take advantage of you. They may do this, I don’t know, to try and win.
Could it be possible that the Seahawk coaching staff is stuck in a belief system that the NFL hasn’t changed and that playing “solid” defense is all that is required. That a bunch of talented players will win because they are individually talented.
Personally I think that is insane. All the players and coaches are too good… on every team. The Seahawks need innovation, cutting edge deception, constant unpredictability to be remotely competitive on defense. Only then will they put their talent in a position to be collectively successful.
So that raises the question: Is the Seahawk defensive coaching staff capable of present day thinking? We know Carroll has openly stated his emphasis is on “stopping the run”. Maybe other coaches have access to those statements. Maybe they deceptively use that information to get an advantage? Maybe it’s time to get a defensive coordinator that plays chess.
There’s not really a ‘chess’ to play unfortunately. There’s not a defensive equivalent to say the way Sean McVay runs his offense, or Kyle Shanahan.
You basically have your traditional formations (3-4, 4-3) and then variations of that — such as the Seahawks playing a 4-3 under or you have the 3-4 coaches (we all know who they are) who are blitz crazy.
By blitzing as often as they are this is, actually, a massive departure for Carroll and his staff. They are trying to do things differently to compensate for the glaring lack of talent up front. It’s not working though.
The only way to fix it is to acquire more talent up front.
My point isn’t that they need to completely shun the obviously required traditional formations. My concern is simply that at the nuance level of disguising coverages, stunts, blitzes, matchups, etc. There are lots of potential options. Could the Seahawks be better at deception and unpredictability to the degree that it makes a difference? Perhaps you’re right, you can’t. It just seems like when I watch some of the good defenses these days they have an uncanny ability to be in the right place at the right time. Perhaps they are just oxymoronically consistently lucky.
A couple of people have suggested this now and my answer remains the same really.
Have you actually studied the variations of their blitzes? Because I haven’t. If you can prove that there isn’t much variation and highlight some possible alternatives, I think you could build a strong case. I suspect though that people are just assuming they are being predictable. Like I said, I don’t know. I haven’t studied the blitzing in detail at all.
The problem with your argument is they had one of the most dominating defences in the history of the NFL in 2013 running a simple scheme. Jimmys and Joes are much more important than Xs and Os.
There is certainly something to be said for scheme and approach from a coaching standpoint. The Patriots shut the Rams down in the SuperBowl 2 years ago by running some distinctly unique sets. 4 safety looks, with 3 or sometimes 4 at the line. That was a creative offense that had been rolling and they scored 3 points.
They’ve had more opt-outs than anyone and the talent has fallen off this year though. We just hung 35 on them, because you can’t scheme against a talented offense without enough impact players.
Last week they played the Raiders, who just handled the Saints quite easily. The difference was Darren Waller. He destroyed the Saints and they never adjusted. Belichek made him the focus with double teams, etc. and the Raiders had 13 points at the 2 minute warning.
Scheme can get competitive (defensively) with mediocre to bad offenses. When you play a good to great offense, you have to have at least comparable talent.
Hopefully the Dolphins and are in that former category and we can look to shut down Parker/Gesicki and Cook/Theilen. If we can limit them via scheme or whatever, we should win those games. I don’t think either of those defenses should be able to hold us to under 30 (knocks wood).
You can scheme all your want, but if it confuses your players with the complexity, your players won’t play with confidence and be a bit slow which is devastating in football. Rather than do that, it’s much better to keep things focused and just let your players out-execute your opponent.
Carroll’s defense wasn’t anything new back in 2012-2013 (adapted from the mid 90s 49ers defense when Carroll was DC under Seifert). Using large CBs isn’t anything new either (see early 80s Raiders or 49ers). The main difference between the defense now and the old championship teams is really all about personnel (in particular the DL not having a penetrating 3 tech and LEO who can win 1 vs 1). In hindsight, the Hawks should have signed Frank Clark. Clowney was decent last year, but he couldn’t finish and we’re seeing the effects of pressuring but not finishing this year.
This is embarrassing: https://twitter.com/TheDraftNetwork/status/1311378119543062528
The reply with the picture of the chicks with that look is the perfect response!!! Haha!
It’s possibly the cringiest thing ever to happen to the draft on twitter — and that includes anything associated with Jared Stanger.
C’mon Rob – it is awesome. You know you need a cool handle and logo too. So dope.
I personally prefer K’Lavon Chaisson twitter-handling himself S4CKGURU.
Career production in college: 9.5 sacks
“The Grindfather” lmao 🤣
It’s like a parody sitcom on draft twitter.
dafuq
Hmmm, I know a dog that when he gets excited…well he’s no draft expert but, he could sue Kyle for trademark infringement.
Looks like we might run into the perfect storm again to stay undefeated… and Russ will be breaking more records…
“Who are we playing this week?”
“Russell Wilson.”
“Aw man. My groin is feeling tight.”
“Yeah. My knee is sore.”
Excited that we get to end up seeing Oregon St’s Hamilcar Rashed after all. Says he’s up to 250. Speed rusher. Definition of a guy that plays w/ his hair on fire. Long, explosive get off, rangy, disciplined. Still a little raw, but he’s got juice and then some.
https://youtu.be/iYU-80IQu3U
I agree about Rashad, he could be a viable Rd-2 target if he performs well and tests well. (IMO). Another Edge guy to keep an eye on is Duke EDGE Victor Dimukeje (6’3, 265, Sr.) is off to a fast start this year. Through 3 games, he’s recorded 4.0 sacks, 15 pressures (both the most in the nation), and 9 QB hurries. Don’t know anything about his length & the above is per some dude on twitter.
Agreed about Dimukeje. Was just talking about him the other day.
Ham is a good one. I just wonder if he will test well enough for Seattle. They did a little mock combine out there earlier and i think his numbers would put him close to what they look for. Production is there too but he can kind of be an “effort” guy at times and that doesn’t always transfer. Love the kid though.
Wed Press Conf w PC
“A lot going on. Big week for us, trip cross country. Team seen play well in 3 games, played 3 good teams. Really nice job Brian doing with these guys. Playing sharp, well, smart. Good challenge for us. Trip to manage. Injury Q’s gonna manage this week. Give these guys a chance to recover. Question marks about guys too. Big week with COVID challenge, Tenn/Minn/Pittsburgh. Prepare and be ready to minimize impact, gets real when it happens. Guys testing negatively doing great job. Ongoing emphasis for us.”
I hope this isn’t going to be a covid and presidential election press conference.
Carroll looks exhausted.
Body language and demeanor not indicative of Always Compete Pete who is 3-0.
Starting to think Carroll retires after next season, or maybe re-signs through the 2023 season and leaves once Russells contract is up.
Pete will ride off into the sunset, not sneak out of town in the middle of the night. That man is prideful!
He literally said before the Pats game that he goes in five year cycles and was at the start of another and it was reported he’s close to signing a new contract.
He aint retiring any time soon.
To be fair, Pete was suggesting he treats every year as a start of five year cycle.
Whether he did or not — there was a report two weeks ago saying he was close to a new deal!
And there is NO WAY he’s going to bow out with THIS defense as his final impression.
Its not unusual for coaches to get extended before they enter their final season. And when coaches get fired their contract length usually does not matter. Having said that Pete can coach as long as he wants under current ownership and he is not thinking about it for 2-3 years.
I have no idea why you’re continuing this.
Pete is not retiring any time soon.
Fin.
[maz veda] Fitzpatrick challenge? “He’s really on it. Going for it in all phases. Running throwing. Making great throws. Very gutsy, veteran savvy working for him. Revolves around his play. Sight to see. Challenge for us.”
[jen] stopping long plays, talked differently about it this week? “Sloppy at times, newness of guys being together. Communication not as effective as it needs to be. Breakdowns in routine access plays, end zone is wrong. Over the top is one thing, but plays in the field scoring TDs should never happen.”
[joe fann] Surprising long TDs number of vets? “Yeah, mixing safeties more than we have. Not responding well. More of a challenge. Looks like we haven’t been practicing well, we have been. Can’t imagine we won’t be better in coming weeks.”
[john boyle] Lockett RW connection? “Doing it for a long time. 3 years great for them. Had a perfect rating 3 years ago, how can you do better? Magic happens after plays break down. Makes Tyler extraordinary player, separation. RW and Tyler extraordinary natural athletes, respond to anything. Seems to work together, see things together, respond together. REallyy special.”
[corbin] Alton Robinson debut? “Good day. Played hard, wasn’t hesitant, chase off the backside was good, really exciting he showed up in his first real opportunity.”
[bob condotta] Deep ball? “Yes, terrible part of your game when you can’t stop the deep ball.”
[Curtis crab] Carson, Pocic, Lewis injury? “All three at walkthrough. Chris positive, Damien looked good, Pocic alright.”
[tim booth] JOrdyn Brooks? “Limping today, real sore. Wacked pretty good. Wait and see.”
[tim] Tennesee COVID? “Went all over it again, gave guys update. Just takes one person outside of the bubble.”
[Jackie] Myles Gaskin? “Playing really good. Way he plays. Leading receiver. Really good FB, tough, creative with his hands, makes special plays. Fits their offense and style.”
[Gregg bell] COVID protocols? [[ cha ed – I’m not typing this, good grief ]]
Going on 3-4 minutes on this….
[art thiel] Debates… [[[ cha ed – nope ]]]
[brady] RW success deep balls? Career and this year? “RW master at it.”
[brady] Pass pro? “Probably best he’s had that I can remember. Protection matched opportunities. Great start but long way to go. Pleased with backup guys. Coaches making sure guys where they need to be.”
[Curtis crab] D Randall bring to team? Lano health? “Lano we’ll see through this week. DR, draft eval, great all around ballplayer great speed. Film really strong, makes plays, covers a lot of ground. For us to pick him up with our uncertainty, great job by JS to figure that out. Good in workouts.”
[tim] Dunbar? “Holding on to a good thought he can get back this week. Wait all the way until the weekend. Ready to play without.”
[michael shawn] Neko? “Buy as much time as possible with groin thing. We’ll see.”
[Gregg] Randall S or CB? “Safety. Best play at safety. So fast teams wanted CB, but most at home playing back end.”
[bob condotta] Pocic progress? “Played most time at C, looked best there. Really consistent. Made calls, held up end, communication, running game. Really fired up for us. Big draft pick a while ago, come through now, really good thing for us.”
[joe fann] Trey mentality? “Battling a lot, crazy batting play crazy situation. Not knowing whether he was playing, harder on a guy. Gave Dunbar a couple starts to show us what he can do. Doesn’t always help you play better. Back and battling, turn a corner and be sharp.”
Glad someone asked about Flowers at the end. Wish someone would also ask about Griffin’s play four years in.
Wish someone would ask about the impact of the increased blitzing. How it has helped/hindered the team. Is it sustainable without Jamal Adams? Is it here to stay, given they’re giving up so many yards? How is the market, trade or free agent, to add right now? How challenging are they finding it?
None of these questions are unfair.
I don’t know about anyone else but I don’t care about the election debate. Do fans actually want to hear about this, or is this a media indulgence?
I was watching the end of season press conference again, just to see if I could glean any kind of insight into how the team got where they are now. Was there something I missed? Some nuance or some little ray of an inkling that they were abandoning their defensive principles?
Nope.
They wanted Clowney back. Spoke highly about him, talked about how he went upstairs to talk to JS afterwards to say how much he enjoyed playing in Seattle. Talked about how guys come to play here and their reaction to the culture and structure they’ve built and they want him to be part of that.
Asked about defense over the year. Consistency lacking. Pressure on edges not able to contain. Lots of teams attacked them at the edges. Must get better there.
Said more than once you need to get pressure with your front 4. Everything else wheels off of that. So impactful.
Asked about Green and Collier and Poona and said they’ve got a lot of development ahead of them. Words and body language indicated there’s no way he’d go into the season relying on those guys.
Sums everything up.
It’s remarkable what they did. I’m shocked so many fans took issue with a third of the articles since the draft being on this topic. They literally laid out a plan and didn’t execute it in any way, shape or form.
The comment about rushing with four speaks volumes. How do you go from that, to then saying you need to fix the pass rush as a priority, to going into a season where you’re blitzing 36% of the time because your D-line is totally inept? And giving away 430.7 passing yards a game.
And while I accept many are willing to overlook all of this at 3-0 — I’m not. There was a real chance this year to take a massive step forward. Imagine a non-liability of a defense with this team right now? Seattle would be the most feared team in the league.
Instead we’re watching an absolute nonsense of a defense that is truly hideous, knowing there’s every chance when the games matter it’ll ruin everything.
That’s why I wrote up that mini alternate offseason. To see if I could give them a lot of the players they decided they had to have and still fix the pass rush and get a LT project. Not that I’m smarter than JS, just as a practical exercise.
Hey Cha where can I find the mini write up on the alternate offseason? I would love to have a read.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/new-podcast-seahawks-falcons-preview#comment-522803
Rob does a more thorough walk through here if you haven’t read it
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/an-alternative-look-at-what-seattles-off-season-couldve-been
Something else is up. Something we don’t know. There just has to be.
I think they just cocked it up, personally.
Made mistakes, misread situations, underdelivered.
The problem is they haven’t had one of their ‘Championship off-seasons’ in a long, long time.
Seven years, actually.
And the issue for the franchise right now is there isn’t anyone at the top (owner) who will expect an explanation and will be pressuring them for better results. That won’t happen until there are new owners.
I strongly agree with the notion that we as a fan base are missing key information as to the how/why the construction of the team has been handled this way. The off season maneuvers were all just too weird, and nonsensical, to the point of looking irresponsible, incoherent and just adrift.
I somewhat understood not paying Frank Clark. I thought he might be a risky gamble, going forward, as to how he’d react to getting paid. How wrong I was. Clowney has been covered, if not him (and I liked his play quite a bit), then move to someone else. So weird to do nothing.
In the back of my mind as I’m trying to make sense of it I start reaching for conspiracy theories, as in Russ wanted certain players etc etc. That’s really nonsense/lazy/not cool tho.
I think our beloved team might be a bit sentimental and get got paying too much to certain loyal soldiers (legion/currents lbs). I’m not sure if that bothers me too much, Bobby and KJ are great, but many defenses are better with less at LB. I won’t pretend to know what’s what, I’m a fan of the team, and love/extremely enjoy coming here to read everyone’s thoughts (thank you).
After the first 2 games I had the thought that we should trade Shaquill for a d lineman, as the drop off from he to Flowers was certainly less than what our current d line has. So I clearly know very very very little.
I don’t think there are any conspiracies or any complicated reasons for the off-season.
I just think they messed up. Didn’t read certain situations well. Didn’t execute certain plans. Certain expectations didn’t come off. They just failed.
My biggest concern for the franchise, as I’ve said a few times now, is the lack of accountability from the top. I think everyone needs some pressure to succeed. The Seahawks are in an ownership holding pattern and while I’m sure Pete & John are well aware that they got it wrong in 2020, are they also going to force themselves to do things differently? Wouldn’t they benefit from someone else having some input, such as an owner? In the way that Paul Allen often would?
Because IMO they haven’t had a great off-season in seven years. That’s a long time.
I’ll be honest, that little RW podcast blip where Randy Moss said the Seahawks tried to get him after their SB win kinda set me off.
THAT is the creative, forward-thinking, honestly compete in everything offseason they needed to have. Where has that gone? How do you spend your aggression and dollars in backup guards? Are the Seahawks shell shocked from having so many RB and TE injuries and that’s why they have like 10 of them on the roster?
Has JS been blacklisted as a trade partner? He paid the farm for Adams, and the move up for Taylor was really expensive. Dunbar it feels like the WFT was happy to dump him. That’s it for this year. 3 trades. 1 massively expensive and 1 pretty expensive. That’s just not the JS we’re used to dealing with.
“He paid the farm for Adams, and the move up for Taylor was really expensive. Dunbar it feels like the WFT was happy to dump him. That’s it for this year. 3 trades. 1 massively expensive and 1 pretty expensive. That’s just not the JS we’re used to dealing with.”
Desperation.
Bingo!
I just can’t wrap my head around them apparently pinching pennies on some guys and then trading the farm and overpaying for others.
I’m grasping for straws and purely tossing out ideas here, but
– I don’t think it’s likely that Jody Allen froze funds completely due to Covid or something. Like a “no big signing bonus” mandate.
– There’s just no way you miss out on Clowney, injury risk and all, just over a couple million so you can retain… Hollister?
– The only halfway plausible thing I’m forcing out right now is something they’ve preached against over and over again, but maybe it’s finally got to them: pride. They offered Clowney $15m when he was asking for $18, then said that deal is off the table by a certain date.
– Clowney went past that date, expecting they would still cave and give him the $15m eventually.
– They refused to, and thought Clowney would come crawling back to the culture he raved so much about. Turns out his pride was a little hurt as well.
– They were wrong. Terribly wrong.
That’s it. I’ve got nothing else.
NO DOUBT!!!
Thanks Cha. Good call on editing out the covid/debate crap. I’ll go watch this to see his mannerisms. One of the nice things about you doing this is a I get the content so that when I do go watch it I get a better view of Pete and how he is responding.
Rob said Carroll looked exhausted. I wonder if this year is extra tough on Pete…the offense is lights out scoring tons throwing the ball/Pete likes to run and control the game; The defense couldn’t stop my grandmother from crossing the street/Pete is accustomed to a power D that can stop anyone. Both are 180 degrees out of whack for Pete. One thing I will give him credit for: He is letting Russ/Schotty run the offense and I applaud him for that.
One final thought. I wish people would stop calling for Ken Norton’s head. He is the tactician, charged with putting Pete’s scheme into action…but he just doesn’t have the talent on the D across the board to do it other than a few players (Bobby/Adams). It takes 11 men to create a stifling defense. Ken is tactical, Pete is the strategist.
Brian schottenheimer earned his stripes despite running Pete’s offense. Ken need to do too. This is his year #3 and if you remember his 1st year was not good despite the talent. His Raiders experience does not help too.
I was actually very impressed with the COVID crap. The diligence and discipline required in maintaining effective COVID protocols, in keeping the team bubble clean, I think, could give a significant advantage to the Seahawks and their team culture by the end of the season.
I think Pete Carroll is a major plus for the Seahawks during these unusual times. I’m not sure you could ask for a better coach to handle this situation.
I’m not sure we needed multiple questions on it though, or a question about the election debate, when there are many, many issues involving the team that warrant a different line of questioning.
Absolutely. I think people fail to realize you can love some things about a person or team and down right despise others. There’s no better coach in the NFL at creating a culture the way he has, but I guarantee you that if he were a private citizen and privately asked about the DL situation of the Seahawks based on what they said last off-season (it was supposedly priority #1 for a team that historically identified needs and attacked them in the off-season) that he would say it’s unbelievable how stupid the “plan” was in retrospect.
We can see it in Pete’s body language, his words, and his exasperated tone.
He knows they failed their priority. He knows what the consequences could be.
He constantly looks frustrated and agitated. This isn’t usual for him, especially at 3-0.
I accidentally clicked the 2019 Wednesday Week 4 press conference, intending to rewatch the one from yesterday. This is the week after that mind-numbing loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints with the Carson fumble return and the punt return TD.
PC beat up and upset the Wed after? Nope. Joking, energetic, engaging with the reporters, loving the questions about the Kingsbury offense.
In fairness all of the questions were football questions. None on infectious disease procedures or race relations.
But still, dang, this week he looked like he hasn’t had a night’s sleep in days.
Those halcyon days when the press conferences featured questions about football…
Serious question: if you’re Pete, at what point are the results from blitzing to manufacture pressure so bad that you give up, play your defense, and just accept that you can’t get pressure and you’re conceding just getting picked apart methodically to avoid getting bombed into oblivion?
Instead of being on pace to give up almost 7,000 passing yards, would you rather give up over 8,000 passing yards? With the lack of front four talent – that’s almost what it comes down to (unless Robinson/Taylor can develop fast).
They’ll get bombed to an oblivion anyway if you rush with four and create no pressure.
I’ve always wondered if a team with a terrible pass rush would try to rush only 1-2 players on 3rd and 10+ if that would/could help.
Have Griffin be a spy. He’s FAST/QUICK… that’s only committing 2-3 players to the pass “rush.” In the case of Griffen, he’d also be in coverage until a QB left the pocket (before that there’d be 9 defensive players covering 5 offensive players).
It’s so sad to wonder these things because you know the unit that was supposedly the biggest fix of the off-season TRULY SUCKS!
I like this move. Win win for everyone.
Guy looking for a new chance and a team a bit beat-up at safety right now.
“With injury issues in their secondary, the Seattle Seahawks have signed former Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns defensive back Damarious Randall to their practice squad.”
NDSU – Trey Lance / QB
How can an NFL organization evaluate a player who has less than 20 starts, all of which are against FCS schools…. and possibly only plays 1 game in 2020… for a 1st round pick in 2021?
He seems to be a fabulous player and story, but he would definitely take 2-3 years to learn the NFL with that limited of starting experience in CFB. Positive is he runs a pro similar offense, like Wentz did a few years back, so he might be closer to ready than a spread offense QB (for example).
NFL.com article implied, don’t be surprised to see him go early/mid 1st round in the 2021 NFL draft. Man…. talk about rolling the dice. Going to need a GM/FO with some big cajones.
I know he plays against lower level competition, but his highlights are so fun to watch. Throws a beautiful deep ball.
Mitch Trubisky and his 13 college starts (albeit against Power 5 teams) doesn’t like your question.
One last thing…. holy hell
RW = 8 of 11 on deep attempts (72.7%), 319 yards, 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 154.4 passer rating
Should be 7 TDs.
Pls just rest him this week. He could probably have used a rest anyways just to help him last the season.
Agree. Isn’t this exactly why they paid Hyde $2.75m and drafted Dallas?
Dallas got as many raves in camp as Alton Robinson. Let’s see what they’ve got there.
Shouldn’t rush him back. Would rather him take his time and come back after the bye week (3 weeks to rest up).
Ditto
He’s trying to get paid though… They are going to have to take it out of his hands
You make more $ by skipping Week 4 vs a lesser opponent and healing well enough to go bulldozing a tough opponent deep in the playoffs though.
Oh I agree. I just think depending on who he is surrounding himself with he may be encouraged to stat chase. Yards+TDs=$. It’s what Clowney is supposedly doing.
He wants this game. Licking his chops to run on their defense. More ypc, TDs, and broken tackles = more $$$
Shall we say it again? Goodbye, Shaq…
You have to play well to get a deal like that…
Helps if you’re supported by an NFL caliber DL as well.
If the Seahawks cornerbacks were that good, they would be fighting for the ball more often. Remember when quarterbacks feared Sherman and wouldn’t even throw to his side? Our guys let interceptions bounce off their chests. They will have to get a lot more scrappy if they want to earn the big bucks.
Shaq has never been more than an average replacement level CB who does not have good ball skills resulting in very few turnovers.
I would not have even dream of offering him a big $ extension like that.
not to worry…many thought similarly about Ifedi too. we know where he ended up. Will be pretty happy if Shaq gets a good CB #2 deal
Pittsburgh/Tennessee game postponed indefinitely after more positive Covid tests for Tennessee.
I will be watching news about Minnesota closely to see if any of their players test positive after playing Tennessee last week. It could affect Seattle’s game against Minnesota next week.
Man, I really hope this isn’t the start of something bad. I knew it would be a challenge getting so many players to behave safely; especially since there is a lot of disagreement/confusion about what “safely” means. But, I was getting optimistic up until this week. There had been a couple stories about guys screwing up like Isaiah Wilson and that kid in training camp for Seattle. But, seeing the Raiders news makes me realize that there has been an awful lot of players not following guidelines that has gone unreported.
What is the solution? Rescheduling won’t work if a team gets hit twice or or if too many teams get hit at once. Should teams have to play short-handed or even forfeit as a consequence of their players/employees behavior?
Giving up their bye week to make a game up could be another solution. And that would only increase the attrition factor of injuries.
The Raiders incident really opened up a lens on the problem. You’ve got 2 ends of the spectrum – young players who are still learning to be adults and getting a full grasp on consequences, and established players who aren’t used to being restricted in doing whatever they want. Derek Carr’s comments sort of reflect what we’re all feeling ( ‘I needed a night out and it’s for a good cause’ ) but restrain ourselves from doing for the greater good.
Matt Stafford’s wife really reflected the entitled thinking I thought, when she went off on the internet about the “abuse” she got from people when the Lions had that false positive test on Stafford. She decided it was perfectly fine in a pretty short window after Matt tested positive, to go to the grocery store, take the kids to the playground, etc and was outraged she was getting grief over it. This is somebody that has in excess of 9 figures in her bank account. She can hire someone to go the grocery store. She can limit the kids to the giant jungle gym I’m sure they have at their mansion. And further, she personally has had to deal with some very distressing health problems, and knows the delicate fragility of life. And she’s being completely tone deaf about COVID.
That’s just it though. At the heart of all this is that people don’t want to be told what to do. For better or worse.
I’ve been saying all along they should forfeit. Moving the bye is a good thought though. Definitely should forfeit a second violation. They are talking about fines and draft pick loss for negligence too. The protocols are weak and don’t even give 2 weeks in between discovery date. I’m not sure they will take it serious until multiple teams get hit.
I’d feel sorry for the stealers in this scenario but since the NFL has done nothing but hand them every break in the book for the last 20 years (Super Bowl XL* gift wrapped, coach tripping an opponent on the field of play and he and the franchise getting a hand slap, skipping the game scheduled in Seattle after the abomination that was XL*, allowing the cover up of a date rape by their QB, etc., etc….) I feel ZERO sympathy for this franchise.
Great article Rob, love when the math gets thrown in for us nerds lol.
There where a few guys this offseason I really wanted to see the Hawks go after, especially Aldon Smith, and Calais Campbell bit really didn’t care for any of the other options, as the all had some fatal flaw, or at least didn’t fit in scheme. Clowney was and I think always will be great at pressure, but lacks finishing ability. Yes, I’m aware he is better than what we have at the moment, but not good enough to solve the problem. Imagine having Aldon Smith, or Calais instead.
I see the problem now being the way the Hawks go at improving areas of the team. You draft how many Wr last year, and still are looking at big free agent adds, this year drafted 2 edge players and try like hell to sign a free agent as well, shotgun middling free agents at the oline. I wish they’d either get a free agent they believe in, start taking BPA in the draft and stop panic throwing all the diluted resources into one area, like a kid throwing spaghetti at a wall to see what would stick.
I like Robinson and Taylor as the Leo’s of the future, Poona is criminally underrated as a 1, but 3 and 5 tech aren’t getting it done. Personally I’d bring in Snacks as the 1-3 in the rotation, and use Reed as the 3 and 5. I’ll be the first to admit, it’s not ideal but it’s better than what’s going on, and the cupboards are bare as far as finding ideal. At least you strengthen 2 positions with moderate investment, if your ready to write LJ off. Much like Bryant allowed Clemons to be a true Leo, having another 300+ 5 tech could do the same for Taylor, Robinson. I’m not understanding all the love from PC on LJ, or why Reed isn’t being more criticism as being a better rotation piece than the guy you build you dline around. He was a run stuffer in college and has tried to reinvent himself as a pass rusher and now just isn’t very good at either, although showed promise as a rusher a couple years ago.. Maybe the shift to the outside could benefit him, bye simplifying his role.
Jim Moore still not quite close enough to pinpointing the problem on defense, but he can turn a phrase:
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1191955/moore-seahawks-are-really-pushing-their-luck-in-2020-with-this-defense/
Lol. ‘Take away all the good plays & your left w/ bad plays’
Interested to see the Cards/Panthers game this week. Jeremy Chinn has been fantastic playing the position everyone said Isaiah Simmons would. Wanna see how they align both, what they ask them to do, if what popped up in college for Simmons (cons) still pops up in the pros.
* and vice versa
Interesting. As after two weeks, he was one of the 5 lowest graded defensive rookies by PFF.
https://twitter.com/JoeGoodberry/status/1308199206377664512
Yeah, I take everything PFF says w/ a grain of salt.
I’m shocked Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor aren’t on the ‘highly graded defensive rookie’ list.
I’m also gonna trust my eyes & take the word of guys like this over PFF.
Daniel Jeremiah
@MoveTheSticks
Jeremy Chinn is already the best player on the Panthers defense.
Jim Nagy
@JimNagy_SB
·
Sep 28
Replying to
@MoveTheSticks
Got your back on this one, DJ. Pro scouts from multiple teams have hit us up and told us the same thing about Chinn. They’ve sent some clips of his work as a gunner on punt and he’s their best ST player too.
I dunno… PFF might have the edge over DJ…
Not a super serious source, but he definitely will get some looks if he keeps it up this year.
He could be a great fit with Watson.
And yeah, if the offence keeps this up, he absolutely deserves to be considered.
Jarran Reed and Jadavein Clooney have basically the same salary cap hit this yr.
Man the Hawks screwed up their offseason.
Sounds like the coaches are the ones not communicating
Mess
This disconnect totally fits with our prioritizing of DL.
“We have to improve the DL. This is not good enough” said Pete Carroll.
“We have improved the DL. This is good enough” heard John Schneider.
Hey guys. Has anyone posted Clowney’s PFF grades for his first three games.
Yes. About 10 times.
With all that being said I am insanely optimistic about the team this year and excited to see Pete shift from doing the same ol stuff season after season, stoked for the present and the future of the team!