Mike Mayock likes the 2015 class of receivers
In a business that demands accuracy, Mike Mayock’s rankings and grades have become a little more ‘informed’ over the last couple of years. Can you really blame him?
It’s no surprise that Mayock’s infectious passion for the game has afforded him the opportunity to become close to a number of coaches and executives. Neither is it a surprise they’re willing to share information. He’s never one to seek approval or be ‘first’ (like it even matters). He delivers draft information in a way nobody else can. He’s a national treasure.
This week he revealed he had eight receivers with a first round grade. That may well be true — but we could interpret this as their are eight receivers that could go in round one. Not all of them will, of course. Only five went in the first frame last year despite a historically talented class.
With John Schneider declaring he’d given out 16 first round grades this year, I think it’s unlikely Mayock would commit eight names at one position (unless 50% of Schneider’s list is filled with receivers). Again, this is probably a big hint that teams like the group overall and many are considering taking a receiver early. I think we’ll see five or six taken on day one. The question is — who?
In his recent top-five’s list at each position he had Breshad Perriman moving up to #4. This is developing into a consensus view. There’s often no smoke without fire and the likes of Mayock, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay do speak to teams and scouts. They’re all touting Perriman in round one. They don’t get everything right — but when certain bits of information catch fire this late in the process, it’s often accurate. It seems like teams have done their homework on Perriman and have determined he warrants a top-20 selection. We’ll probably see Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker join him in that range — with the only debating point whether it’s Cooper or White to leave the board first.
There’s growing momentum that Nelson Agholor will go in round one. He was linked to the Eagles last week. Now Mayock is listing him as one of the biggest risers in the class. Again — as teams have done their work and started to finalize their boards, it appears Agholor has been graded highly. If there really are only 16-18 genuine first rounders this year — it opens up the possibility for a prospect like Agholor to rise. He’s very athletic, consistent, hard working and he has special teams value. He’s a solid pick with a high percentage chance to contribute.
The Eagles can probably move down a few spots and take him in the 20’s, with several teams jockeying for position with an expected late first round rush on offensive linemen.
Let’s say Cooper, White, Parker, Perriman and Agholor are gone by the #25 mark. Is there room for one more? Absolutely. It could be Jaelen Strong — an athlete with great ball-skills who struggles to generate separation. It could be Phillip Dorsett — a sprinter who does a very good job at getting open but lacks size. Or it could be Dorial Green-Beckham — the wildcard.
And this is where it gets interesting. Mayock’s thoughts on DGB add another layer to our recent debates. He is talented, no question. But where is he going to go? There’s very little first round buzz — but it could happen. If teams share Mayock’s concern, he could legitimately fall into the deep second round. Yet he’s still regarded as a first round talent:
“I have no idea what to do with him. He has no clue and he didn’t play in 2014 — but he tilts the field.” — Mike Mayock
Herein lies the intrigue for me. Some teams will look at him and nod in agreement at the “no clue” remark. They’ll agree that they don’t know what to do with him. But there it is. “He tilts the field.” A phrase we hear so often from Seattle’s two power-brokers.
Christine Michael was in a similar situation. He fell out with the coaches at Texas A&M and landed in the dog house. He lacked maturity. Yet he tilted the field with extreme athletic brilliance. They took him in round two. I suspect several teams didn’t even have him on their board.
That pick hasn’t worked out, but I don’t think it’ll make the Seahawks gun-shy. Green-Beckham isn’t Michael. He has different issues, different demons to battle. Bob Stoops and the coaches at Oklahoma have done nothing but praise the guy — and they gave him a ton of visible support at his pro-day despite the fact he turned his back on the Sooners without playing a single down.
If there is a team that will take on this challenge, I think it could be Seattle. It’s just a case of whether he falls far enough to become an option. Mayock grades him as a first rounder. It hints at a dilemma within several war rooms about where he should be selected. It’ll only take one team to end any possibility he lands with the Seahawks.
If you were wondering, though, why they might trade up to take him — this is the evidence. Mayock has him as a first round talent for a reason. And he’s keeping him in that range for a reason too. He could’ve just played it safe and said seven first round grades. Green-Beckham is basically Seattle’s only chance to get a first round level talent in the late second. Possibly their only chance to get a player who genuinely “tilts the field”.
Every one of Mayock’s ‘elite eight’ could be gone by pick #40. If that happens, there’s not much you can do. You probably take the best offensive lineman on your board at #63. However — you have to believe the Seahawks would love to add a truly dynamic receiver. They don’t need depth at the position, or another specialist. They need a potential game changer. They need ‘the man’. That’s what DGB could be.
You also have to wonder about the curious timing of Mayock dropping Jameis Winston below Marcus Mariota. Have the Buccs done a bit of digging here? Followed him around for a while? Have they found some information they don’t like? I don’t think it’s something to just write off, that’s for sure.
There a several teams that could be intrigued and also have the locker room to take on DGB, I could see NE or Baltimore taking DGB. NE for obvious reasons, and Baltimore because they need someone else besides Steve Smith. If the consensus is that DGB isn’t a risk, and Baltimore has done their due diligence, he could be a Raven. Smith could be someone who could be a mentor to him.
BAL has some very pressing needs at RB and DB that probably take precedence in R1. I think they’ll take one of Gurley/Gordon, or Peters/Collins before going WR. But they’d definitely take DGB @58.
NE is a real possibility at 31.
One hope is that teams looking for a tall athletic #1 type will go for Strong, Coates, Funchess first.
After the Ray Rice domestic violence situation, I think the Ravens will stay away from DGB. If it was before the Ray Rice ordeal, I think he’d have been a lock to have been taken by a team like the Ravens. This is one situation where I think a team like the Ravens will pass even if they want to take him deep down.
I think DGB is much different than Rice, less immediate, less heinous. Also, DGB has his former coach Stoops and staff standing firmly in his corner. That means a lot.
I agree. But if anyone has to be extra-careful this year based on that – it’s the Ravens.
well said.
NE has a lot of depth at WR. Edelman and Brandon Gibson in the slot. LaFell, Brian Tyms, Aaron Dobson outside. That’s pretty good. They will draft WR only if they are not happy with what they have with Tyms and Dobson as deep threats. It would be a strange priority if they use the first round for that.
They should grab a guy to be a “Randy Moss” type of impact.. they have not had that in along time.
You call that depth? Other than Edelman (and MAYBE Amendola due to return skills), there’s no WR on the Patriots roster that could make the Seahawks roster. The Seahawks currently carry 3-4 young-ish guys with potential to be better than the very average LaFell’s and Gibson’s of the world.
Brandon LaFell is actually above average in my opinion. He’s going to be better next year. Can Newton was a horrible passing QB and thus LaFell’s stock fell. Now that he has Tom Brady he’s a sleeper for my fantasy radar.
Lafell would make the hawks
I do think Baltimore are in play, even despite the Rice stuff. Carolina, I’d say Pittsburgh but they’re loaded at WR. These are the teams Seattle would probably have to trade above.
New England is a toughie because they’d have to jump up too. They don’t have an early fourth round pick like the ‘Hawks. So if they wanted to better any offer by the Seahawks they’d have to give up a late third rounder, which I think is unlikely. But there are certainly 4-5 viable options for DGB in the second half of round two. And that’s why if SEA wants him they probably have to move up.
If the 49ers take him in round two — a possibility if they don’t draft a WR in the first round — then they are also an option. It’d be hard for the Seahawks to get above the Niners for the price of a fourth. If you want DGB in Seattle you probably hope they go after Devante Parker or Breshad Perriman at #15.
The Patriots have the second pick in the 4th round via Tampa Bay (Logan Mankins trade).
In that case my mistake — and therefore they are a possibility to move up. Although recently they haven’t invested much at WR.
If DGB makes it past HOU @51, I could see SEA trade with either of PHI @52 or DET @54.
R2 #63 + R4 #112 would probably be enough for 54 from DET. 52 might be a stretch, but Kelly might want that early R4. Either way, they’d be jumping ahead of ARI, PIT, CAR and BAL.
That sounds like a plan.
As you have said, all it takes is one team to pull the trigger. I do think, however, there is a good chance he makes it to a point in the 2nd that we could trade up if that’s the player we want.
Two big aspects in our favor that work in concert with each other: We have extra picks to use as ammo, and a fairly complete roster. Maybe a better way to state it is, most teams do not. A large majority of teams (especially those picking in the top-thru-mid 2nd Rnd) have enough holes to plug that taking a risk on an enigma/red-flag prospect like DGB may be just too much to stomach with other pressing needs.
Those teams with more complete rosters (likely picking in the mid-low 2nd) don’t have as much draft capital to leap-frog teams up the board, and if they do try, they know they are sacrificing picks they need throughout the draft. And that’s assuming those teams are even in the market for a high-pick WR to begin with. I can’t see GB, or even Pit bringing on another WR that high
Well reasoned.
Going a step further — no doubt we have the extra ammo to move up the board, but will we be willing to use it? As others have pointed out, history doesn’t have lots of examples of the Seahawks moving aggressively up to get a guy. But, JS has shown aggressive tendencies in making trades using draft picks and I don’t think it’s too big a leap to see him doing the same in the draft, trading picks to move up — especially this year with all our picks.
I recall JS saying something to the effect that this year’s draft was going to be exciting or interesting or something similar. Could he be implying that he is considering moving up?
This is what the Raven’s owner said recently;
“My biggest take-away is just realizing that we did a very poor job – us as a team and the league as a whole – of kind of lumping offenses together as just character issues,” Bisciotti said. “… I think that we were pretty stupid not to recognize domestic violence as a category by itself. No other infractions – failed drug tests or bar fights or DUI’s – nothing to me should rise to that level, to that category. I’m embarrassed to say that they were lumped together. I’m happy with that we’ve found ourselves comfortable taking [domestic violence] categorically and putting that to the top of the list as something that’s just unacceptable.”
1 year removed from Rice, no way they come close to taking DGB, even if he was there in the 7th round.
“1 year removed from Rice, no way they come close to taking DGB, even if he was there in the 7th round.”
We cannot say that with any certainty. Have the Ravens got a roster now with no players with any domestic violence issues? Have we looked into that?
No I haven’t looked into it, but from a distance I don’t think anyone (media/fans/sponsors) is asking them to cut players currently on the roster. To me that’s not what the owner has said, I think he is saying going forward they will look at DV as show stopper, ‘unacceptable’ for current players who get involved with this in the future, and future FA/drafted players. Whether its out of convenience or due to cap ramifications, I don’t think they would go back into the past to gut their roster. There is probably some legal stuff at play, as long as these issues/past where known at the time the player signed the contract, can you really boot them off the team now for issues that happened before they signed their current contract?
Adding DGB in the draft with so many other players available (and so many excuses to take other players, position needs/measurables/etc) would go against ‘unacceptable’. Since this is a business, I don’t think the Ravens or any NFL team wants to cut guys ‘to make a statement’ with salary cap ramifications, I guess as long as a tape doesn’t show up.
You are right though, nothing is certain, just my opinion and I have been wrong many times before.
I think this is one where I am with CD. I don’t know how the Rice issue played overseas or what you got to experience of the American news media, Rob, but it was such a long-lasting national firestorm that went so far beyond the sports world. It isn’t just NFL fans who turned against the Ravens, it was the entire national media, political talk show hosts, religious leaders, etc. DGB could be Jerry Rice incarnate, and I am still not sure they take their chances on him this year. A few years down the road, sure. But right after the Ray Rice scandal? I think it is beyond unlikely,
I don’t deny that this is worth considering — I also think it’s worth noting he wasn’t charged and hasn’t been in any trouble since his departure from Mizzou.
Ravens and Panthers will take the “safe” approach this offseason. No way they would even consider drafting DGB or Frank Clark THIS offseason.
We’ll see. We can’t speak definitively on what teams are going to do.
Got me… I usually try very hard to avoid definitive statements, since you’re right I don’t know anyone in their respective front offices personally. I really don’t think they will though, specifically the Panthers after everything Jerry Richardson has said publically.
Mayock is my favorite of the national draft pundits. He seems to have a depth to his analysis that the others lack. I appreciate what Kiper has meant to the evolution of the draft’s popularity and spectacle, but I think that Mayock is just at a different level. Of course, when it comes to more Seattle-specific draft information, I’ll take Rob’s analysis on this site over all others.
Yeah — I’ll second your praise of Rob’s analysis and this blog. What I especially like is that Rob presents us with lots of alternatives with what the Seahawks might do — he’s very careful about tipping his hat towards one alternative or the other. He then lets his “audience” weigh in with their (often disparate) views.
It used to frustrate me that Rob didn’t come right out and say this is what I think will happen, or what I hope will happen. Now I realize it’s all a clever ploy to stir the pot and see what his readers think ….
Rob – What would you do if DGB fell to #63 and the Hawks took him and then got Sambrailo in the 3rd round? Or what would you do if DGB fell to #63 and the Hawks passed on him? 🙂
As usual, good thoughs/conversation starters. Thanks.
I don’t think DGB will fall to #63, I think if they want him they’ll have to move up a bit. I cannot see Sambrailo lasting until the late third either. I think Sambrailo will be an option, if available, at #63 if the receivers leave the board too early in R2.
What would I do if they passed on DGB at #63? I’d forget about him and focus on the guy they took.
Think they would take Sambrailo or Lockett if both were there are #63? Which would you take?
Yeah. We get so focused on certain guys that the best plan is to support the guy they pick. I remember being mad they took Carp over Carimi, got Irvin over DeCastro, and dating back to wanting Harris Barton over John L. Williams. lol
I like both. It depends on what they think they can get later on really.
There have also been reports recently that Glazer’s daughter doesn’t want Winston due to his checkered track record as a person. The coach/GM want Winston, but she has the final say (since Dad Glazer passed away) on a pick like this and it sounds as if there’s a good chance she puts her foot down.
Winston needs to get out of the south, where he’s a demigod. If he goes to Tampa, his bad influences will be right there with him. He’d be much more likely to succeed somewhere like Chicago (trade Cutler), San Diego (trade Rivers), or Denver where he could get mentored for a year or two by PFM.
Just throwing this out there too – think there’s a chance if DGB lasts until a few picks into the second round that the Hawks would offer a #1 next year for the right to take DGB in the 2nd round this year if they had him as one of those 16 first-round grades?
If they liked DGB enough – they may do it and then try to find a trade parter and ship our #63 pick overall to a team like the Raiders for their 2nd rounder next year. The reason I say a team like the Raiders, is that if McKenzie doesn’t win this year there’s no way he’s going to be around to make any picks next year. This would give him a better chance at winning some games here and now.
Meanwhile, a team like the Jets or Bears (front offices who recently took over) would probably take a #1 next year instead of their #2 this year because they will, indeed, be around to use that future #1 pick. The Hawks were 3-3 at one point and weren’t even guaranteed a top 20 pick so there is no guarantee they will be picking in the 30s again next year – even if we expect them to again.
I think it’s very unlikely they spend any future picks this year.
If Seattle is willing to spend their 2016 1st round pick, I would hope it would be to move up and draft Gurley. Highly unlikely, I know, but the only player in this draft that seems worthy of such consideration.
Hell no. If the FO is going to even fathom the thought of giving up next year’s #1 for a receiver, it better be for a can’t miss prospect like Cooper/White/Parker.
DGB is a complete wild card. No way they give up that kind of capital for him. No one has even seen him play a real game since Missouri.
You’re right, DGB is a total unknown, both on and off the field.
“can’t miss” – phrase used to describe Trent Richardson and Aaron f’ing Curry. Even at the always safe LT position, both Luke Joekel and Eric Fisher were considered “can’t miss” prospects and went 1 & 2. Neither are any better than Justin Britt has been (and some in this community think he’s a bust, as a late 2nd rounder).
There are no can’t miss prospects, none at all. To me, Amari Cooper looks the safest from this draft – but again, I wouldn’t ever use the terms “can’t miss” or “sure thing”.
I see a scenario where SEA trade up to 40s using their 2nd round pick, 4th round pick and a player that is not getting chances at the roster, like Turbin, a WR like Noorwood (maybe Kearse?), or even Luke Willson. With a trade like this se could get more chance at Strong, Perriman ir DGB.
What you think Rob, and blog readers? Is it possible? What player we could trade?
Always a chance, but I think the players you mentioned have a solid role on our team. Norwood gets his chance this year, and Turbin/Willson are high-value backups that see the field quite a bit. You’d almost be creating an additional hole that needs to be filled by including them. If anything, I’d be ok with tossing in our 7th if that’s what it took (to get the player we’ve identified)
It’s probably the only way they could move up far enough. Their R2 #63 + R4 #112 will get them to about 55. Adding their original R4 #130 (or next year’s R3) might move them another 3-4 picks to around 50. That’s just not far enough, and it’s probably not worth throwing more draft capital to get there.
Not sure why you have Turbin as no chance at the roster. He started as many games as Lynch last year. Ditto Luke Willson. Graham doesn’t make him redundant in the least, and SEA only has 3 TEs on the roster, one of which hasn’t played a down in regular season for 2 years.
Norwood was a mid-R4 pick who’s probably worth about the same now. In other words, not enough to get SEA close to DGB. Kearse, on the other hand, is a possible trade candidate. CLE might like to add him to their roster.
I agree. Turbin is a lock. Sherm Smith loves him. He’s fundamentally sounds and won’t make mistake and he’s a good pass blocker.
Plus Turbin and Wilson are very close. Have been since they were camp-mates and roommates as rookies.
Kearse in a trade for DGB? Take him!
I like Turbin and Norwood but think they have very little, if any, trade value.
I would trade CMike if that is the scenario. But really I don’t think we should trade any player away unless it is a huge salary dump or it is later in the season and it is for a position of need like cornerback or Leo.
By trading CMike, then you have another hole to fill at RB.
We do anyway judging by the number of times they have played him.
It’s not impossible. I think Turbin was a trade candidate last year. Although with this being a good RB class that possibly changes things this year.
Well, hopefully Pete and the coaches don’t panic and trade guys unneccessarily. As you said, this draft has some good RB talent even in later rounds. Truthfully, I don’t even think the Seahawks should draft a RB any earlier than round 5, if at all.
“What player could we trade?”
How about Mebane? I like him, but we did pretty good without him last year and his cap hit is pretty significant if I recall (someone help me here).
I would move on from Mebane next year, so as to increase the odds of getting at least a 6th-7th round comp pick. We wouldn’t get much more than that this offseason in a trade anyway.
The only reason it would make sense, is if his cap hit is too high – but if he goes I would bet Kevin Williams will be re-signed eating up some of that cap space anyway.
Mebane consistently occupies 2 blockers and plays to a stalemate, which allows our LB’s to stay clean and make plays. He is an important cog in our defensive scheme. Williams did a great job of stepping in and filling that critical role. It is curious that they have not re-signed him. It makes me wonder if we have a couple DL high on our Draft board??? Or maybe they are confident they can round out the depth with the numerous unproven players they have on the roster?
Or maybe Williams really is leaning toward retirement.
He was a late signing last year. If he comes back it’s probably after the draft and after May 12.
We signed Rubin who fits the bill. MeBane, McDaniel, Rubin and Hill form a solid DT rotation. Plus Bennett and Marsh can slide in on passing downs. There’s a few guys fighting for roster spots behind them-hopefully Jesse Williams can stay healthy. (I’m not holding my breath) I’d like to see a DT come from the draft that can push the pocket. Tyeler Davison is a favorite of mine-5th round type. Noticing him going up on a few boards among the media types. We are sitting better at DT than we were at this time last year though, so that’s good.
And don’t forget Justin Renfrow, Ryan Robinson, Julius Warmsley and Jimmy Staten, all waiting for their shot at the D line.
Jimmy Staten has me a bit excited. I am hopeful he can unseat McDaniel this offseason. I know it’s a stretch, but they definitely see something in him and McDaniel’s contract is up after 2015.
Just wondering if you saw tape on Staten? I really still don’t know whether he can be a rotational guy. Any intel would be appreciated.
Nope, none at all and I wouldn’t know what to look for anyway because I have no idea why Seattle drafted him. If he makes the Hawks, I trust that he has some talent or potential that could be developed. His measurables are exciting, he could be the long-term answer at 3-tech (running downs) in a rotation with Hill (passing downs)
Answering my own question — Mebane’s cap hit is $5.7 Million in 2015, $200,000 Dead Money.
Rob’s last 2-round draft has Atlanta picking at DT (Grady Jarrett) at #42. Would Quinn & Company trade #42 for #63 and Mebane? Or, for #63, a 4th (or later pick), and Mebane?
Which WR would then be available at #42?
I’d rather not give away Mebane just for the right to jump up and take Jarrett. You’d be giving up a proven vet for the right to replace him with an unproven commodity. I really like Jarrett, but this wouldn’t be a deal I’d like to see happen.
Rob – you’re right. Mebane is still a valuable run-plugger, and having Rubin to platoon with him as a shaded nose (1-tech) seems like a good plan that the team shouldn’t go away from. Plus, I think Atlanta would ask for a lot more than what Phil is suggesting in return for that 42nd pick, despite the obvious Seahawks-Dan Quinn connection 🙂
Rob – if you are responding to me, I’m not proposing we ” give away Mebane to jump up and take Jarrett”. I’m questioning if we could trade Mebane and our #63 (and maybe a 6th or 7th), to Atlanta for their #42 (which you have said in your mock that they would use on a DT — Jarrett). We would then use the pick at #42 for a WR.
Since we are talking draft analysts (projectionists?), interesting bit from McShay when he and Kiper were doing a radio bit about who they would take if they were GM (as the radio host gave them some round/position scenarios). Talk was Ameer Abdullah, RB from Nebraska. Both liked him, McShay really liked him, Kiper mentioned ball security issues and McShay claims to have done research (or seen research) showing that both smaller hand size and fumbling problems in college have very low correlation to fumbling by backs in the NFL.
Thought that was interesting, giving that it’s been brought up as a knock on Abdullah here. I really like the guy and think he could be a useful guy for us, particularly catching passes.
As to Mayock’s pronouncement, (1) He’s nuts on this one, and (2) good, I hope teams spend all their draft picks on receivers early so a DE/DT/CB or great OL slips to us.
If the Seahawks had a legit need for a RB (or at least some other concerns that weren’t so significant), I would most definitely be chomping at the bit for Abdullah. I mentioned earlier that the Huskers are my Seahawks of college football and that kid would be perfect for us. He’s a downhill runner and you’re not going to find a better guy and teammate than him. If we didn’t need a big-time WR, some OL, and additional pass rush (and developmental CB)… I’d be screaming for him! I love that kid.
So if Seattle had a legit need for RB, and if that big play WR wasn’t within reach, would the same logic apply in attempting to trade up in the 2nd round for Abdullah? This guy might be special, and able to contribute immediately due to his complimentary skill set.
It just seems reasonable to attempt to get a play-maker with the first pick, if possible.
He is good but we can get a player like him next year when Turbin is due for a new contract and Marshawn might be ready to hang up his cleats. Seems like a wasted first pick if we don’t use him. sort of like CMike redux.
Abdullah is a Darren Sproles/Dave Meggett back. I don’t think he’s so special that he is worth trading up for. This is a deep draft for backs, good options in every round, and backs are much easier to find in any draft. The WR problem is much more of an issue given how things are shaping up. So I would not use the top for a RB.
I just see seattle not being interested in him. I think size, ball security and pass pro are the tops for their check list and Abdullah is weak in all of them. Leon washington was the only rb of that ilk ever on Petes team and he was a returner mostly. I like him as a prospect but I don’t see fitting what the team looks for.
Abdullah seems like a guy that would fit in DEN, OAK, NE or NO…. teams that use a lot of play action and also use the RB in the passing attack extensively.
Which begs the question: why doesn’t Bevell use the RB’s more as receiving targets? We should probably throw more screens. Hardly ever do we use RB screens – I see more WR screens!
We have talked about it being tough for RW to lob the ball over tall, on-rushing defensive linemen.
Marshawn is our 3rd leading receiver. We do target the RB. Screens are not used much in the NFL game because O Linemen are not allowed to block down field before the pass is caught. The traditional slow screen to the RB, where the QB drops back 7 steps before lofting the ball over the onrushing linemen, is usually ineffective against man to man defenses because a LB is assigned to cover the RB.
We saw the Seahawks attempt to use Percy Harvin in both the bubble screen and jailbreak screen. Neither play was effective against NFL defenses. The defenders are too fast and not fooled. A screen generally relies on a defender making a mistake or missing a tackle. It works in high school but not in the NFL.
With all the OL and WR (return specialist) I have been considering Abdullah for several day’s now. I’m on board. It may require a small move up or he could be there at #63. They may sit tight,as I am sure they have more than one player targeted in that area. Trust in PCJS…
If Tampa drafts j. Winston they will be looking for another qb in 4 years. I personally do not know the guy but every vibe I hear about him tells me not a leader, not mature and will probably get into another incident down the road. It really boils down to common sense and unfortunately many players and people don’t have it. He is a bubble ready to burst 8 a bad way.
He also had Cam Erving, Tre’ Jackson, Josue Matias and Bobby Hart up front blocking for him. The first 3 seem like locks to be NFL draft picks. That kind of protection doesn’t make you look bad.
Yes, I can’t believe someone from his own camp is saying things like this so close to the draft, you would think he doesn’t want to go to the Bucs or something. I would also think this guy would be liable, but has since backed off a bit.
Jameis Winston’s attorney, David Cornwell, seems to have the same general opinion of the quarterback as everyone else: He is ready to be a player on the field but has some growing up to do off the field.
Cornwell spoke at the Villanova Sports Symposium on Friday and was asked about Winston.
“He’s ready to be an NFL player on the field. But he’s not ready to be an NFL player off the field,” Cornwell said, per BuzzFeed’s Joel D. Anderson.
Anderson tweeted that he had talked with Cornwell after his portion of the event and that Cornwell said Winston has some growing up to do, not that he’s unprepared for the NFL. Later on Friday, Cornwell took to Twitter, writing Winston will be “fine” and “I bet Jameis is more ready than most.”
During his talk, Cornwell also said, “We have to assist him in growing and developing as a man. And it’s not going to be easy.”
Yep, as a Duck fan watching the Rose Bowl, it was excruciating to see the amount of time he had in the pocket. All the analysts that praise his work in that game never seem to take into account that the Ducks dropped seven or eight guys into coverage on virtually every single play. He found the holes eventually, yes, but he often had like 4-5 seconds in the pocket each play. That line was dominant.
And still threw like 20 plus picks. I sure wouldn’t bet a career on the guy. He looks as likely to be out of the league in 4 years as he is to be an above average starter.
We focus here on finding the one field tilter. A tough proposition past rd. 1. We might have no choice but to settle for lesser “potential” and “very good” types who can make enough field-tilting plays, more along EranUnger’s more practical scenario of taking a couple of WRs later without trading up.
If there are eight first round WRs, the top five have to be (not necessarily in order) White, Cooper, Parker, Perriman, Strong. Let’s make Agholor sixth, based on recent rumors. This leaves two more spots for Devin Smith, Dorsett, DGB and Sammie Coates. Which two are left out?
Coates, in my opinion, is the worst of this bunch. The worst hands, the rawest, the most infuriating.
And therefore, someone I think might fall for good reasons. I have to wonder if teams would rather risk DGB’s rap sheet than Coates’ on-field issues. He is technically worse than some UDFAs.
But there is question that Coates is a burner. He can tilt the field—if he catches the ball. Can the Seahawks clean up his terrible game, and teach him how to high point and catch with his hands instead of his body, etc.?
I would feel much more comfortable even taking a Dezmin Lewis/Nigel King/ Kenny Cook type than a Coates, but it isn’t comfortable hunting for impact.
Typo: I meant there is “NO” question that Coates is a burner. So how much that is that worth?
“More along EranUnger’s more practical scenario of taking a couple of WRs later without trading up.”
I think they go early or move on. The middle rounds are too good to pass up the O-line talent. Seattle doesn’t need another fringe late rounder to work on over time. They need ‘the man’. If they don’t find a WR early they can’t deviate from tapping into the O-line talent in the middle rounds.
It’s a deepish draft for WR’s albeit top heavy IMO. I think we’re really starting to overstate what the later round option WR’s can do. They don’t need another redshirt project. They have those. If it’s about working with guys just do the same with Norwood and Matthews.
Would you trade up for Sammie Coates? Is he “the man”? He did look better in his pro day. Which, by the way, was attended by Bill Belichick.
No I wouldn’t personally.
I don’t think we should be surprised if Coates falls and there are the Hawks with thumbs or thumbs down. Wouldn’t trade up for him either. I see him and DGB slipping for different reasons.
I have to agree with you on this, Rob, we have a lot of developmental talent on the team right now, so adding a WR in this draft should be for a player that adds something that the others don’t. In my view, the only wide outs that we should consider, are a big, dominant type like DGB or a good return man. And, frankly, I think we need the returner more than the big guy.
If we take a WR early, it will be for a return man who can catch, unless DGB falls to us.
I want to see about 4 offensive linemen in this draft. I want a return man. I want a backup safety for Kam. Maybe a quick CB to play the slot, a tall receiver to develop, and to win the lottery. Not much, really.
…..Sorry for the length of this post, had a lot to say…..
WR-Tyler Lockett, Kansas St. 5-10/182,
Many people are perhaps in the dark about Lockett’s abilities as both a WR and a kick return specialist. Many say, he’s way too small, might not get off press coverage, a slot WR only and many completely ignore what he has done in his career at Kansas State as a WR. He really is one of the very top few in several National WR stats. He’s not just one of the best returners in this draft, he has shown a lot of game breaking plays as a WR as well. He may be smaller in stature than many want, but he is young, still growing and has a burning desire to be great, excellent work habits, a film room junkie, outstanding character and he’s a team leader, sound familiar? A good conditioning program with weight training, a pro diet and practice against the LOB should buff him up some.
To me, Lockett, if available when the Seahawks make their 2-nd round pick in the draft, should be the most logical selection. (I’d like a small trade down for McBride as an alternate if Lockett is gone or they don’t trade up slightly for him.) Some analysts have said that Lockett plays both inside and out and can actually run himself open with his agility and quick cut, start/stop abilities out of his breaks so he creates his own separation. Some people without justification have labeled him as a slot only guy just based on his size, but I think that is not the case because If Golden Tate, ADB or Harvin (and historically numerous other “smaller guys”) could play outside, Lockett can too. IMO-Lockett is a real playmaker at BOTH returner and at WR. He might get knocked on his can occasionally, but his potential WR/KR contributions will far outweigh that concern, (he’s almost a Harvin 2.0, with brains, and they are somewhat similar in size, just need to keep Lockett healthy by using him appropriately.)
2014 – RECEIVING:
—106 receptions for 1515 yds., 14.29/avg., 11-TD’s, 8.2/avg. receptions per game, 116.5/avg. receiving yards per game. (#4 in FBS with 106 catches and #3 in FBS with 1515 yds.)
—#2 in FBS in *LONG* pass receptions! 65@10+yds, 21@20+yds, 9@30+yds, 4@40+yds, 3@50+yds, 1@60+ yds. & 1@70+yds. (obviously he’s not just a deep threat, but makes catches all over the field, including intermediate routes.)
Career #’s receiving: 249 receptions – 3710-yds. (14.9-yds avg.), 29-TD’s. 15 games @ 100+ yds. & 3 games @ 200+ yds.
2014 – ALL PURPOSE YARDS. – (2296-yds. in 2014.)
—#3 in FBS in all purpose yds. (#1 as a WR, behind only RB’s Gordon & Coleman – who had huge RB #’s.)
17-yds rushing, 1515-yds receiving, 402-yds punt returns, 362-yds KO returns,
148-total plays for 2296-yds, 15.5-yds per play avg. & 176.6 all purpose yds. per game avg. —NOTE— 15.5/yds. PER PLAY avg. (that’s every time he touches the ball), 177-yds/ per game avg. isn’t bad either.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/player/327/1039822/index.html
http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/player/split01/category33/sort01.html
2014 – KICKOFF RETURNS:
18 KO returns for 362 yds. 20.11/avg., 0-TD’s, – 1.4 returns/27.8 yds. avg. per game.
(NOTE: Lockett shared some of his return duties with a sophomore DB in 2014.)
ALL PURPOSE CAREER #’s: ( includes a total of 6,586 career yards & 35 career TD’s.)
RECEIVING: 249/3710/29-TD’s – 14.9-yds per catch avg.
—2011-2014: (106/1515/11-TD’s, 81/1262/11-TD’s, 44/692/4-TD’s, 18/246/3-TD’s)
RUSHING: 22/192/0-TD’s – 8.72-yd per rush avg.
—2011-2014: (3/17/0-TD’s, 2/10/0-TD;s, 7/55/0-TD’s, 10/110/0-TD’s)
PUNT RETURNS: 32/488/2-TD’s – 15.25-yds per punt return avg.
—2011-2014: (21/402/2-TD’s, 2/4/0-TD’s, 3/44/0-TD’s, 6/38/0-TD’s)
KO RETURNS: 77/2196/4-TD’s – 28.52-yds per KO return avg.
—2011-2014: (18/362/0-TD’s, 22/583/0-TD’s, 21/688/2-TD’s, 16/563/2-TD’s)
2015 COMBINE:
4.40/40, 1.56/10-yd split, 35.5″/vertical, 121″/broad jump, 6.89/3-cone, 4.07/20-yd
shuttle, 11.14/60-yd shuttle. All this = very agile, explosive & very quick, even if somewhat undersized.
MY CONCLUSIONS: Lockett may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but as a WR, he has stats to back up the fact that he is a very productive “playmaker” and very good kick returner. (as well as a two birds for one stone draft pick). No – he’s not 6-3+ but from my film study, really knows how to get open and provides the team that drafts him an opportunity to get real good value in a 2-nd round pick, I personally hope that team is the Seahawks. They can get their developmental tall WR later in the draft.
Bottom line, it’s not so much what he may be capable of becoming some day – maybe, but more about what he has already accomplished. There are WR options for a Tall WR later in the draft (see below). I personally like several of those later round guys as developmental picks, most will need some work but have good upside. Lockett can and very likely will be a day 1 starter as a 3-rd WR and kick return specialist, It makes more sense to me to invest a 2-nd round pick on a playmaker rather than an OL/DL/DB/LB backup that will ride the bench & show little return on the initial investment. (IMHO).
—Tall WR’s – later round projections per current cbssports.com rankings:
WR-Dezmin Lewis, 6-4/215, Rd-3/4 * (a favorite, needs work but looks good.)
WR-Chris “Sparky” Conley, 6-2/213. Rd-4
WR-Darren Waller, 6-6/238, Rd-4/5 * (a favorite for long range development)
WR-Vince Mayle, 6-2/224, Rd-5/6
WR-Jordan Taylor, 6-4/209, Rd-7
WR-Kyle Prater, 6-5/231, Rd-7/UDFA
WR-Jake Kumerow, 6-4/209, Rd-7/UDFA
WR-DeVante Davis, 6-3/220, Rd-7/UDFA ** (one of my favorites, a +value in Rd-7?)
WR-Kenny Cook, 6-3/208, UDFA
WR-DeAndre Smelter, 6-2/226, UDFA (w/injury) * (one of my favorites, red shirt him.)
……..among several others.
Jim Q- Fantastic comment! Thanks for putting in the work on how Lockett’s stats match up nationally. Truly impressive numbers! 15.5 yards per play?! Amazing!I’ve been banging the table for Lockett on here for months now, but you described how I feel about him better than I have. I completely agree with your analysis. This is the playmaker we’ve been looking for, and I’m all for trading up to get him.
Devante Davis could be an absolute steal. Really like how he uses his big frame to shield defenders.
Smelter is worth a 6th round stash pick. He’s got prototypical size and length, huge mitts and looks to be very athletic.
Sorry Rob,
You know i do not share your feeling about the value of trading up for DGB but i respect your view on it.
However, there is a huge factor in this discussion that you omit when you you direct your search for “the man”.
We already got him with our 1st round pick!!!
The question is not what we need to upgrade over Bladwin and Kearse. The question is what are the best complementing chess pieces for Graham. He is “The man”. On a run first team that made the last two SBs we may not need another “the man” to catch passes. We could do with role players that compliment Graham’s effect by being tall ball catchers.
Any discussion about the needs of our passing offense that does not include Graham is talking about the past rather then the future of this team.
P.S. – my opinion is that the 2nd round pick should be OT. Pick the complimenting WRs on the 3rd or 4th.
I see Graham as a fantastic chess piece to create vital mismatches down the seam and vs linebackers, while taking attention away from the running game. Teams will no longer be able to stack the box against the Seahawks like they did in 2014. A huge benefit. Plus he’s a red zone machine.
But he’s not a receiver. And the Seahawks still need a vital outside threat. They have one of the best TE’s in the game. They will be fully aware that they’re still lacking in the WR department.
“Graham lined up either in the slot or out wide on 67 percent of his snaps last year”(2013) ESPN
Carroll said about Graham: “I think all the ways we’ve come to understand is pretty clear: He’s a big receiver, plays big, makes plays in a crowd, makes plays on top of guys, is a very effective player in the red zone, he’s been a consistent scorer.”
We are a running team first and foremost, whereas NO throws the ball an awful lot. It’ll be interesting to see how we utilize Graham. Bennett basically already called Graham out on his lack of interest in blocking. The players will make sure he at least tries to block.
Graham will contribute both TE and WR type plays. I get your point, EranUnger, that he is somewhat “The Man”. For a truly dangerous passing attack, I think they should have three “Men” on the field, each deadly, each a mismatch, who can get open.
Yep, I suspect he’ll be used very differently in SEA. He’s a fantastic weapon working in-line before moving out (taking a defender out of the box) or running the seam. While at NO he was the main target and a figurehead, I suspect he’s in SEA as much for his potency as he is to take attention away from defending the run.
Yes, I agree.
We will not see cover zero this year. We will usually face 7 men in the box or less. (2 corners on two ERs, safety on Graham and FS on top) against Lynch, RW and 6 men in the OL. Sounds absolutly enticing.
Graham will have two major effects besides being there to make his catchs.
He will open the running game more and will pull the tallest DB cover when he splits wide out. The first is easy to to exploit. The 2nd would be easier to exploit if we have another reliable tall target abusing sub 6 foot corners. It could be Matthews or McNiel and it could be a new guy we picked for that roll.
All seriousness aside, wouldn’t it be completely valuable if we could somehow manage to trade Darrell Bevell to get DGB?
I don’t think we take Coates in any circumstances. If he can’t catch the ball by now it’s unlikely we can teach him how to do it in training camp. I wouldn’t be surprised if we go WR/returner early in Lockett (who has big play potential) and then pick up Montgomery in the later rounds. Add in a few bigger wideouts (maybe Tyrell Williams or Gavin Lutman) as UDFA and let them all compete. I’ve been looking at some of Montgomery’s video and he’s a real burner, too. And, of course, a great returner.
Two question marks I can’t entirely dismiss:
Coates has game changing speed. He is physical, a good blocker. And he is making an honest effort to improve his hands. Is there any chance he can get to the point that he is competent?
Funchess has game changing physicals, an instant mismatch. But he lacks intensity and quickness.
I don’t know if this has been brought up. But I believe comparing C-mike and DGB is a little unfair when it comes down to professional playing time. Michael was brought in behind a top 5 possibly top 3 running back. DGB would be coming into a situation where he would have to beat out the likes of Kearse, Lockette, and possibly Norwood. I think the reason that Cmike hasn’t seen the field is because Marshawns career has been extended beyond what is normal for a running back that receives the wear and tear he does. I think DGB would beat out the WR competition unlike Cmike and that’s just because the talent level of our WRs much less then our RBs.
Just my opinion…2 weeks and change!
I don’t think that CMIke has taken advantage of the limited opportunities. He’s had some bright spots and nice runs, but there’s also blown blocking assignments and fumbles mixed in.
That is the bigger issue than Marshawn. Heck, CMike is 3rd on the depth chart behind Turbin and that is because Turbin is more reliable and the team can count on Turbin doing what he’s supposed to do.
its funny I think it was last preseason when Cmike fumbled twice from being hit low or something like that and Pete Carroll said they haven’t worked on that and it being an odd way to have the ball knocked out. but I’m pretty sure I’ve seen the ball get knocked out like that a lot during my time watching football.
but you’re point is well received.
C-Mike is taking up a roster spot where the Hawk’s are not getting any production. This is why Abdulah may come into play. Snyder showed interest in him last year. Per Rob Blog. That’s what we were assuming anyway.
Another sleeper: Adrian Coxson 5-11 215. Ran a 4.28 40 at his pro day. He has gotten interest from some teams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHVMS95q9gY
Nice find! Very balanced hands catcher. Scrappy as all hell. nice moves to get open and after the catch. Like the way he sets himself up to haul in the deep ball. Looks like he loves to block and has the size for it.
Thanks for sharing the link. It’s amazing how many great players aren’t even being talked about. He has some of that Golden Tate after the catch mojo.
He’s built like a RB. I thought that’s what you were talking about till I played the video.Wonder what his rap is? High rated recruit to D1A school that gets suspended, transfers to some backwater program and dominates lesser competition? Don’t have time to look it up at the moment.
I dug a little. He chose to leave Florida when his father became ill. Good kid with some ridiculous talent! http://vikingsterritory.com/2015/nfl-draft-2015/sleeper-sunday-wr-adrian-coxson
When PRich was healthy, he was open on go routes. Russell couldn’t connect on his throws. This happened quite a bit. So if you put a Dorsett or Devin Smith out there deep, why wouldn’t Russ have the same problems?
More important that the field flipping ability of the individual is the ability of Russell Wilson to connect with whoever it is. Because the unfortunate truth is, he can’t make all the throws.
Have to think JS and PC noticed how RW to Matthews looked. I’d imagine they’d want to bring in another big body. Shorter QB’s tend to throw Lob passes and that’s what the tall WR/TE’s like. They can jump ball it and come down with it. I think Graham and Wilson will be deadly. Hope JS/PC can get a younger big target that can grow with RW for the long haul. I cant imagine they go smaller in WR with what they saw in the SB. Unless they think Matthews can win a starting spot. and just avoid drafting a big target all together.
Agree completely! I know Jimmy will take some of those catches, but wouldn’t it be nice to have 2 taller WRs?
Matthews is working out with BJ Daniels today at UW – not in Hawaii with Russell – not sure that means anything, but I found it interesting.
I find it alarming.
My dream for the off-season was to see RW, Graham, Matthews and McNiel working on their high ball chemistry.
Instead I get RW and his PR shticks and baseball dreams and then Matthews working with Daniels.
That’s not the image of a young franchise QB working to ensure the highest contract in the game.
Eran, come on Russel talking about baseball is something he does every year! Him mot working out with Matthews has nothing to do with besting every QB before him in every meaningful category except yards per attempt…..
Maybe all it says is that Matthews is not the guy going forward. Maybe he had obligations that prevented him from going to Hawaii. Who knows…
As a fan since AFC west days and all the bs of the nineties Wilson winning a ring and getting back to the big game the next year is all I need for him to get the biggest contract ever.
I worry that if he gets his contract and goes on a big Ben style journey into 8-8 if people will be calling for his head forgetting how abysmal it was before him.
I reference big Ben because he too was a rookie phenom, won the big one and has had some solidly middling years before Pittsburg yet again looks ready to dominate now on the strength of their offense and not their defense…
I don’t know if Richardson was as open as you think. although I am not sure. I think teams picked up on the idea of how the hawks offense worked; which was big chunk plays and that’s why they went to a more quick pass offense in the second part of the year. teams would put a safety over the top of Richardson’s side just for the fact that none of our other WR’s could beat 1 on 1 coverage. A lot of it may have been chemistry/trust too. RW didn’t really start throwing to Prich toward the end of the season, then he got hurt. a lot of the times too is that go routes are more or less longer developing plays and when that happens the 0-line is required to pass protect a little longer which isn’t their strongest ability.
just my observations. not attacking you or anything just merely stating why I think Prich wasn’t thrown too as much.
When you subtract the hang time of the ball on a 50 yard bomb, RW has to let it fly somewhere around the 2 second mark or before. Otherwise PRich will simply outrun the throw and have to gear down and wait for the ball while the D catches up.
Very true Robert.
To use PRich’s speed the timing has to perfect. The ball must leave RW’s hands long before PRich is actually open trusting that his speed will separate him from the corner.
That poses two problems for RW:
1. He is trained to protect the football first. Pulling the trigger to a covered receiver that does not have the physical advantage to win the contested shot is something he was trained to avoid.
2. With the way the OL is pass blocking it’s not easy for RW to be free and clear to make the read and get the pass out right on time. Half of the time he is busy avoiding pressure at that time.
Hence why PRich was targeted mainly with quick short hooks using the extended cushion he gets.
I agree I did see this a lot last year with Richardson, but on the flipside Wilson connected on deep passes to Kearse quite often and Kearse is the prototypical anti-deep threat receiver. I’m not sure what to make of it really.
I’m not sure what to make of Kearse! Doesn’t consistently fit any description.
I think Kearse is in the mix for at least another year given his tenure in the system and the fact that….this guy has made a bunch of big catches in big games including bringing in catches up high, in traffic numerous times for scores, etc. He could be a casualty but he won’t be asked to be a number one anymore and could be a great rotational piece along now with Graham in the passing game and another big Wr like DGB….
I’m bebevelled….
LOL…Kearse is playing the “I wish he was Tate” role.
He gets targeted deep wishing he could come down with the contested catch like Tate did. He gets short passes wishing he could get the YAC that Tate did. He doesn’t get free from the press at the LOS like Tate did. He doesn’t break tackles like Tate did. He doesn’t get paid 6M a year and go to the Pro bowl like Tate does.
That roll is vital within the post Harvin offense and those plays are called because they were the bread and butter of the 2013 offense that he had to get back to in mid year.
He made some great catches that were more scheme related then talent related.
He also dropped some big catches and failed to come down constantly with contested catches. After 4 years he doesn’t have an upside either.
He is what we have until we have someone better. I do not see him on the roster at 2016 unless he restructures his contract to reduce his cost.
I see some real YAC potential in Ty Montgomery, who has serious downfield speed. I’m warming up to him after watching more tape. He is a better hands catcher than some folks give him credit for. Fast, strong, and elusive, all of which make him the dynamic KR/PR we need.
I miss Tate’s game — especially the back-shoulder routes that he developed with RW. These throws seemed missing from our arsenal last season. They are one weapon that a smaller, but quicker WR can use against a bigger CB.
I only recall two bombs where PRich blew the top off the defense and RW actually threw the ball to him. Both were underthrown and forced PRich to gear down and battle for a 50-50 ball. The 2nd play resulted in the knee injury. So disappointing. I agree that RW will be lethal with bigger targets.
Yes. So this has to be factored in. Guys like Dorsett or Lockett can run to the end zone but Russ’ pass may not catch him in stride along the way. There are, I’m sure, some who might think, well, Russ will simply develop that throw somehow if forced to. I would rather the staff spend some time before the draft to assess, with Russ on the field, what he is comfortable doing. And hopefully Russ is honest.
We now know for sure that he can do those Matthews SB plays.
RW and PRich had almost ZERO practice time together for a portion of the season. Chemistry on deep passes take time….. give them a CHANCE!
They nailed a few last Summer during camp vs LOB. It was maddening and mystifying that they rarely dialed it up on Sundays. PRich is nearly impossible to overthrow!
With the major holes on the Seahawks being WR,OL,DL I believe the hawks draft will go something like this.
I know it will sound silly but I believe the first seahawks pick will be Dezmin Lewis WR Central Arkansas, 6’4 213lbs. Hes got good size and well the hawks seem to always surprise. now im only going by the CBS Rankings but they have him slotted 3rd-4th and the hawks tend to reach in the eyes of the “experts”. so tell me how that doesn’t make sense? haha.
3rd round am thinking Mitch Morse from Mizzou.
4th round: Ty Montgomery or some sort of KR/PR specialist
4th round: Leterrious Walton CMU 6’5 319 DL. Could be an OL convert. that’s what he was recruited as for CMU but went to DL.
4th round: Henry Anderson DE Stanford 6’6 294.
5th round: Max Garcia OL FSU/ Shaq Mason OL GT
5th round: Josh Robinson RB MSST
around the 6th round the hawks usually go for the athletic projects. so you’re guess is as good as mine here but here are some ideas
6th round: Tye Smith CB Towson
6th round: Zach Wagenmann DE Montana
6th round: Trenton Brown OL FL
7th round: Alani Fua OLB BYU
A lot of these will come off as reaches but I already explained why I put them where they are so go easy on me. the only picks I feel pretty confident are the Dezmin Lewis, Mitch Morse, and Josh Robinson picks. I figure the hawks have actually pretty good safety Depth coming into this camp with Dion Bailey, Erik Pinkins, Deshawn Shead, Stephen Terrell and probably some UDFA’s so I didn’t put one in this little mock. also we are getting quite a bit of D-line back from this previous season that were injured (Cassius Marsh, Jordan Hill, Damarcus Dobbs and Brandon Mebane) but I can see them adding some more Depth to avoid the debacle of mid-late last year.
GO hawks!
Would Walton be an oline or a d line? The only info for a,conversion project is Sweezy and he went in the 7th. I like the reasoning with the draft and the picks in the 6th round.
Josh Robinson I like but I wonder if the team would see him as a fullback to go against Coleman, tukuafu? He’s one of my favorite players in the draft but lacks in nearly every area that Seattle seems to consider size, speed, areas so who knows…
I think Walton would stay a d-lineman because I don’t believe the hawks would take a project like that so early in the draft. it was just a tidbit I threw in there really.
I think Robinson is a little small for FB (5’9 217lbs) so im not sure about that. but I like his bowling ball esque size. he ran a 4.49 at his pro day I believe.
Check out the pro day from Auburn RB Corey Grant (could be our Sproles):
5’9″ 201lbs.
4.30 40yd dash
22 reps 225lbs.
37-inch vertical
127″ (10’7″) broad
Corey Grant would be an ideal late round returner and change of pace back. Problem is, evil Belichick was at his pro day. NE needs a Vereen replacement, he’s a good candidate.
LOL Evil Belichick. Yup, Bill was eyeing Corey Grant – and with good reason: Grant put on a show at the Auburn pro day! Not only in the measurables, but also looked fantastic catching the ball. Could also be a good return man. I really want the Hawks to strongly consider drafting this guy.
I would not discount the Cowboys or Saints looking very hard at him. The Sproles angle would be enticing to them especially. I’m still trying to decide if the Steelers will be taking a RB early (top 3 rounds), but if they don’t… this guy might be a nice fit with them as well. Heck, speed is a good fit on every team.
Real similar to Dimitrius Bronson, who is already on the roster and knows the playbook. Grant’s tape is fun to watch!
Some OLinemen I like are:
To be our center: Ali Marpet, Shaq Mason, or Andy Gallik
To be our left guard: Donovan Smith, Mark Glowinski, Mitch Morse
WRs I like: Darren Waller, Ty Montgomery, Kenny Bell
One RB I like is Corey Grant from Auburn. He could be our “Darren Sproles”
Corey Grant is also a returner, isn’t he? He could help us in multiple ways.
Yup… could be a very good return man. At the Auburn pro day, Grant looked really good in receiving drills. Belichick (who attended) was watching him closely, I’m assuming he sees Grant as a replacement for Shane Vereen.
Anderson won’t last untill the end of the 4th. Like to have him though.
Hill and Mebane are concerning to me because of injuries. They are our two best DT’s when healthy but Mebane’s injury was a really bad one and Hill has had 3 significant injuries in 2 seasons now. I love Henry Anderson but I think we would have to spend our 2nd round pick on him which kind of hurts the value IMO. Xavier Cooper could a nice interior pass rusher who might be available later in round 4 (he could also go earlier). He could fill in for Jordan Hill’s next injury and possibly move Cassius Marsh to the edge.
vrtkolman, the good news is that I think this is a deep DT draft. The other good news is that the Hawks have stockpiled D linemen already, and will address it even more in the draft. Possibilities all the way down: Anderson, Marcus Hardison, Chris Covington, R. Nunez-Roches, Derrick Lott, Joey Mbu etc.
Dezmin Lewis might not be a huge reach. He has the size, good game. The kind of stuff needed to be the x or z. High point, sideline, jump. He needs refinement. Bobby Ingram and the Ravens like him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOwQZRAtdNk
Given the likelihood that DGB will be out of reach, if we are looking for taller targets, we might be left with options like Lewis.
It would be nice to get an individual who is a field flipping “The Man”, but having very good prospects who make the right kind of plays in the system should still be a benefit.
“having very good prospects who make the right kind of plays in the system should still be a benefit.”
Don’t they already have those though?
I think that’s the point really. If it’s about bringing in yet more developmental, later round WR’s just give Norwood and Matthews a chance to take the next step. If it’s about getting an injection of pure quality at the position (something they really needed last year) it’s probably going to take a proactive move.
I’ll say it again,
Yes, we need “an injection of pure quality” at pass catching.
Yes, we already went and got one of the best, his name is Graham. He an the offense will benefit from another tall target at the X/Z spot.
Getting another “pure quality” would be great but unlikely at 63.
Yes, Matthews or Norwood or McNiel may indeed be all we need but they are all unknowns that failed so far to get past Lockett on the depth chart. Adding another “developmental” into the mix sounds smart to me.
Why though?
So you can have another guy not contributing taking up a roster spot on the off chance he amounts to something?
They’ve been down that road. If we’re saying they don’t need a dynamic wide out then just avoid the position (aside from a kick returner later on to replace Walters).
Isn’t the draft a crapshoot anyway? Every rookie is developmental, with the hope of starting caliber.
We might have a college history that suggests, but there is still no telling. A rd.1 could be a bust, a UDFA sleeper can be a superstar. All we have is a best guess.
The reasons to draft dynamic wideouts: 1. upgrade what is already on the roster (luxury if you like what there is) 2. buy insurance in case what you have fails 3. add a type of weapon that is not already there.
Regarding “taking up roster spots on the off chance they amount to something”, let there be a camp competition to determine who gets the roster spot. Cut, trade, or practice squad the ones who don’t make it.
Matthews-big tall physical type. McNeil- lengthy vertical playmaker. Unknown quantities, but we know that these types of taller WRs is ideal for RW. I think adding another is critical in order to create impossible mismatches tactically. A Graham+ Matthews+ a rookie triple towers attack. The rookie does not have be an instant superstar, as long as he can make the plays more often than not, and develops. I see the tall WR category as up for grabs, decided in this upcoming training camp. Goal: have two tall WRs who can be put next to Graham.
Norwood, solid possession type with some size, and adequate speed. No need to replicate this if you think Norwood is healthy and ready. Does he belong in the above “taller” category? Maybe.
If we believe Baldwin is one of the best slot WRs in the game, then there is no need to replicate the slot WR with a new starter.
Kearse is on the bubble. Replaceable.
Special teams- definitely a need. Ideally, a fast punt and kick returner. I don’t think it matters what other position this rookie would play. Could be a backup slot for Baldwin, or a RB, or secondary. Doesn’t have to be a high draft pick.
So to me, bottom line, one tall WR, one return guy.
Matthews and Norwood failed to get by Lockette on the depth chart because Ricardo emerged as a special teams gunner in 2013. Only after ‘The Rocket” focused on special teams was he able to stick on an NFL roster. The other guys now have that same problem. McNeil was not on the Hawks last season. Matthews was put on the Super Bowl roster ahead of Norwood because he had ST value after recovering the onside kick against Green Bay. In the SB Matthews broke out against two sub 6 foot CB’s for a big game. Matthews, Norwood and McNeil are not out of the lineup because of their receiving ability. If they could not make plays as a receiver they would not be on the roster at all.
Good points.
Norwood, at 6-2, doesn’t have the size mismatch i was looking for.
Matthews at the SB did exactly what i think we should be looking for – Abuse sub 6 foot CBs. With Graham splitting wide we should be able to force those matchups regularly.
However, both Matthews and McNiel failed to get into the NFL to begin with. They are coming from the CFL and AFL. They may indeed turn out to be just what the doctor ordered but until that happens it’s only prudent to add an actual 3rd/4th round pick to the mix. Unless there is a ban on drafted receivers on this team….
Agree. They can’t be sure of Matthews or McNeil at this point. I think they should be treated essentially as rookie mid-round draft types for a camp competition—one that I would love to see as wide open and intense.
At the risk of overkill, it would be good to start camp with another tall WR, a lengthy speed WR, and a fast pure return man. Three guys.
Three MORE guys.
You know i advocate that tall target but 3 WRs would be way too much considering our needs.
Those needs extend far beyong OL and WR.
There is a 20 million bomb ticking with a timer set for 12 months. Some of it has to addressed now. DT, LT, CB, LB are needs to be addressed so that we have those guys stepping in without the rookie shock next year.
A tall target and a PR/KR with some potential (Montgomry, McBride etc.) would be more then enough.
I dont think that 8 receivers will go at first round, IMO, 5 will get picked, White and Cooper in top 10, Parker and Strong in top 20, and either Perriman or Agholor in the late first round.
To pick DGB, he has to get passed by TEN, OAK and STL at least, but in Draft day everything can happen. Im 80% sure he will be at the second round, specially with Agholor stock going up, Perriman’s pro day and Dorsett’s 40 time they will all get picked before DGB.
I think you are spot on. Basically the top 8 receivers will be gone by mid second round. So will all the elite defensive players and offensive tackles. Which leaves the Seahawks picking who? Joe the plumber, a hard working man who brings his own lunch pail.
If this hard working Joe the Plumber is a low 4.4, 37″+ jumping guy is a guy that can run all the routes and make really tough catches, then I’d take him over someone like Coates or DGB.
I like your criteria. My joe the plumber is an offensive or defensive linemen. Wide receivers are the snoop dog of the football squad. 🙂
Exactly! Last year was a better year for WR talent and only 5 WR’s and 1 TE were selected in R1. By round 2 you are not getting a receiver that is going to start day one. Like Golden Tate, it will take them a year or two to work their way into the starting job. Although many do not like Baldwin and Kearse, a college guy is unlikely ot beat them out because they have the trust of the coaches. Only the Walters, kick return job is open in the receiving corp. You better be able to contribute on special teams if you expect to make this team.
I don’t think Mayock is saying eight go in round one. He’s saying there’s eight with a chance to go in that range — and a combination of 5-6 will.
Word is Sammy Coates blew up his pro day – didn’t drop a single pass even deep throws.
Bill Belichick was the only HC in attendance and he watched Coates closely during his workout.
if you want to see how much he blew up…. here is the SPARQ page with the major WRs we bandy about all day and night long….. he was #2
http://3sigmaathlete.com/2015/04/12/post-combine-sparq-rankings-wide-receiver/
Charlie, we have been all over Coates. See above, and read Rob’s scouting report on him. Coates is high risk. No doubt about his speed, but the rest of his game is very much low round quality. He is going to bump his stock up with these test scores. I’d still be leery.
But what if he is the last (perceived) “game flipper” left?
Coates had an early drop in his pro day, but that was it. He has drops in any game tape you watch, while also making some circus catches, YAC capabilities and shows ability to tilt the field. Games against LSU and Alabama Coates is an absolute beast! Of course there’s drops though. He’s seems to play better against better competition, but a bit disinterested when playing lesser opponents. I’ve watched 6+ game tapes of his and it brings me to the question-does he have vision problems? His lack of focus tracking deep balls and dropping easy slants, curls etc. is troubling. The elite playmaking ability is very intriguing. If we took him at #63 I’d be stoked because it would signify that PC believes Coates can become a more consistent pass catcher. Personally I feel the drops and lack of focus out way the upside, and wouldn’t take him at #63.
hmmm…
Conley has the highest pSPARQ of all receivers in this class.
Waller has a higher pSPARQ than fellow, higher touted big men Parker, Strong, Funchess…and DGB (by a long shot). Waller would be tremendous value in the fourth round or so – or even late third – as a receiver even slightly more athletic than Parker who will be a top 15 pick. If Santa Clara winds up with Parker and we get Waller a lot later, I can’t help but wonder if it becomes another McDonald/Willson scenario, where we get the better big man at a much cheaper price.
And speaking of DGB, he lands in the ‘below 50th precentile’ half of the chart, just a few ticks below Agholor, who lands at the very bottom of the ‘above 50th percentile’ chart.
Using the same (dubious) eye test on Waller, he seemed like he ‘lumbered’ on the field, and wasn’t terribly impressive. However, DGB didn’t really look much better, and Waller perhaps the better value later in the draft.
By many accounts though, Coates doesn’t catch the ball well. Bad trait for a WR…
So cool….I post mayocks views yesterday on the blog and u write a whole article in response, very impressive Rob!
As noted yesterday, I totally agree on the approach to get one of the 8 at #63 or by trading up. Concerned it’s a bridge too far and all will be gone <#50 even if we could trade up. Think you are right they stick to OL in the mid (to late-) rounds per our usual MO. But what do u think is plan B for the 2nd pick, if it rolls like last year where maybe they wanted Easley but ended up with Richardson?
Without going into it now, I'm thinking a BPA pick
Seeking advice on my DT position board. How would y’all rate these 3 DTs to each other? Which would you take if DT was the pick and they were the BPAs?
Marcus Hardison
Xavier Cooper
Gabe Wright
Hardison
Wright
Cooper
I like cooper but he has short arms
I like Xavier Cooper, I think he might be a very productive player in the NFL with a 8-10 year career.
Kristjan Sokoli. Everything about him screams Seahawky.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh1RQ4Sauyw
I’d trade a 7th round pick for a flier on Josh Gordon and his potential return in 2017.
His issues seem recurrent, but given the right situation, he’d be as much a liability as other pro’s with issues.
Thoughts?
I would rather Justin Blackmon if we are making that type of move
I agree, he has shown ELITE play making ability.. the off the field stuff is his problem. Throw a conditional 6th rounder in 2016 at em and roll the dice.
Gordon’s problems go beyond drugs and alcohol. He is high maintenance in the locker room. Some days he does not show up for work. This affects the whole team. I think Gordon should hope to recover from his addictions and lead a normal life. Working in an NFL locker room is too much stress for him and those that must share it with him.
For all those who like DGB in the first round and as a potentially transcendent WR in the NFL, I need some help. After watching a high-light video of DGB, I came away incredibly unimpressed. What do you see in him again? Perhaps you can provide some tape that is more convincing. What I saw was this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zpWOO7TPeU
What I saw was a massive WR beating smaller corners and rarely catching the ball with his hands, almost always letting the ball into his body. He was wide open on several of the plays (a positive, I suppose) making the easy play, and he made a couple of contested receptions worth praising. He is not quick or sudden, doesn’t compare (to my untrained eye) to a comparable high-light video or Conley (see below – first provided by Robert in a previous thread).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBzaad4INAE
What am I missing? I am open to being convinced, and learning something about how to scout WR prospects.
Part of your problem is that you are watching two highlight videos. Another problem that you probably run into because of this reality is Conley had several years to get that compilation of video, while DGB had only through his sophomore year.
One thing you should not take lightly is the fact that DGB gets so open. We do not have that quality on this team with any regularity unless it is Baldwin on a broken play. You do not see much of that from Conley either.
Besides these things and his size and upside, I completely understand what you are saying. But the truth remains that these are the things that separate 1st and 2nd round WR from 3rd-5th round WR.
I should add that I say this without knowing what I actually think about trading up for DGB.
Highlight vids don’t always give an accurate picture.
Look at the stats:
DGB played only 2 seasons of college football. In his sophomore season, DGB had 59 recs for 883yds and 12TDs.
Conley played 4 seasons of college football. His best season – his senior season – Conley had 36 recs for 657yds and 8TDs
We don’t draft college players based on their production. Too many variables that differ between circumstances, that argument doesn’t really hold. For example, wasn’t Kellen Moore the most productive college QB in history? Or was it Tebow? Regardless, what are they doing?
Anyway, I compared apples to apples in looking at the high-light videos, assuming that we are seeing the player’s best. Definitely not conclusive, and what I would love to see is additional tape/analysis that disputes my visual impression. Because watching the two players, play for play, Conley looks far superior. Faster, sharper, better hands, more spectacular receptions, and be can block (how often do you see a WR’s blocking as part of a high-light reel?) DGB did very little after the catch, unless he had open field. No moves, easily tackled.
So that’s what I am looking for, if anyone can provide it. I stand ready to be convinced.
We don’t draft on production, but you want to look at highlight videos of two very different players to determine who to draft? interesting.
No, I wouldn’t rest my judgment there. Just a preliminary view. I was surprised at the apparent discrepancy. What I am hoping is that someone has done a more detailed analysis of DGB that would explain their judgment, and why he is so highly regarded.
He just didn’t look like a top NFL WR to me. But I could certainly be mistaken, and look forward to being convinced that he is worth trading up to obtain.
Good discussion but I think DGB vs. Conley is certainly not apples to apples. They would be used differently, even though both have speed. DGB is a huge target/size mismatch, Conley is a classically sized outside WR. Conley seems tall in a draft that is full of under 6-0 types.
I have some issues with both. DGB doesn’t play up to his size. He is a long strider who is not quick. There is something about Conley’s game that doesn’t look finished and could be much more smoothed out. Conley doesn’t fully play up to his speed. I want to see more film on Conley to see if he’s a consistent playmaker, not just a guy capable of the occasional huge play.
If we are analyzing players using highlight videos my choice would be Sammie Coates. The drops aren’t shown on the highlights-Coates has way more than his fair share. His athleticism is elite- no question about that-and has a prototypical build(height/weight/length). He’s a player I really want to like, but just can’t get past his stone hands.
All I meant by apples-to-apples was that I was viewing high-light tape only for both of them. They are certainly different players.
Conley looks like a potential #1 WR, and DGB doesn’t, IMO. Not that either of them will start there day one, but looking at where their game is today and projecting based on character/skill set/measurables.
Judging two players based on a couple of highlights videos is very unfair IMO. How can we possibly say one looks like a franchise guy and the other doesn’t based on that evidence?
Completely agree, which is why I am soliciting others to provide more in-depth analysis. I have read the high-level scouting, and have read all the comments, but it seems like we are simply taking the conventional conclusions as factual (I was, anyway, concerning DGB). Once I watched some tape, I was surprised at how common DGB appeared.
Thus, the mystery (for me). Sometimes we get a fuller analysis on this site, or links to such (the stuff on Bell was fantastic). Does anything like that exist for DGB? If so, I would love to see it.
Hs77,
I actually found dgb to be somewhat uninspiring when battling top flight defenses. Ole miss comes to mind. Without going back to rewatch I found that dgb’s strength was tearing the top off defenses that dont play press. Absolutely destroyed people that gave him cushion. But when pressed I thought he was easily rerouted and nullified out of the play. His routes seemed to be entirely “go’s”. And there is minimal technique.
Not to say he couldn’t learn it but he just seemed to be a man among boys unless playing against stacked defenses.
I guess we have to agree to disagree. I see something totally different in their respective highlight films. To my eye, Conley is an easy tackle; the only time he gets YAC is if he’s hit wide open in mid stride. Otherwise, if there’s a defender near him, or if he has to make a move to evade after the catch, he gets tackled immediately, even by smaller defenders. I don’t see him making any YAC on his receptions (again, unless it’s on a wide open down field strike). He may be an “explosive” athlete SPARQ-wise, but he doesn’t play strong.
When I watch DGB’s film, I see a totally different WR, a much more physical WR, who fights for YAC and can break through arm tackles. He plays strong, often running over smaller DBs.
Ultimately, for me the difference between DGB and Conley is potential. DGB hasn’t reached his ceiling. By all indications, he hasn’t come close. The last time he played he was 20 years old. His stats were not only impressive enough outright (far better than any single season stat line for Conley), they were a major improvement over his previous season.
Moreover, DGB wasn’t the only tall, red zone threat WR on the 2012 Mizzou team. L’Damian Washington (6’4″/210) and Marcus Lucas (6’4″/220) combined for 86 receptions, 908 yds and 5 TDs in 2012. That same season (his sophomore one) DGB had almost the same number of yards on nearly 30 (THIRTY!) fewer receptions for more than double the TDs.
Conley has been UGA’s #1 WR for 2 seasons. The only other WR of significance on those teams was Michael Bennett (6’3”/200). However, Conley was only marginally better than Bennett in 2013 – 45rec/651yds/4TDs vs. 41rec/538yds/4TD. He separated himself from Bennett more in 2014, when he had about +250yds and double the TDs on one less reception than Bennett. However, despite the increase in TDs, Conley’s stat line didn’t improve significantly from 2013 to 2014. More significantly, he failed to distinguish himself as a dominant WR on his own team at the collegiate level despite being UGA’s primary receiving target. It’s unreasonable to expect he suddenly can become that now at a higher level of competition.
Thanks, this is great. Exactly the kind of response I was hoping for. And we can’t really disagree, because I don’t have a definite opinion about the two players, simply seeking to have my impressions checked out.
I do have a couple of responses, however:
“Ultimately, for me the difference between DGB and Conley is potential.”
Isn’t that what the big question is, NFL potential? In other words, I see two players and one of them appears more accomplished at the position, with attributes that should translate well to the NFL. Based on other known quantities, such as character and measurables, I judge the one with more potential than the other, projecting his future as best as I can. Obviously not conclusive, but ultimately, the same thing you are doing. Collect the facts; trade opinions; watch some tape; come to some position or other. The point being that both players are unfinished products (unlike others that will be drafted higher) magnifying the risk as to what either of them can ultimately become.
Finally, I like your thought about comparing WRs on the same team, and their relative production, but I don’t know if that trumps the actual play of Conley or DGB. I think your thoughts of his YAC, tacklebility, and that’s significant. But for me, that was less important than his route running and his ability to catch the ball (neither attribute that can be fully evaluated from high-light tape).
In sum, we have to remember we are comparing a player that Seattle may have to spend two picks on to acquire, and another who can be obtained a round or two later, and then compare the cost with the risk. I was expecting to see in DGB a prospect I was ready to pound the table for, but walked away with an idea to pass altogether.
Thanks Hawksince77 I appreciate your perspective. I think SEA could do a lot worse than Conley in this draft. The kid is a world class athlete with uncommon size. I’m afraid that he will cost more than he’s worth – SEA will have to take him in R3, when in reality he’s a R4 prospect. But, like I said, he’s got a lot to work with. I don’t think he’ll ever be a “tilt the field” kind of player, but that’s ok too.
Agree. I see Conley as a nice 4th round option as well. But like I posted elsewhere, I thought Irvin was a 3rd round guy and Seattle took him in the middle of the first based on his uniqueness. That draft, I had Wilson in the 2nd and Irvin in the 3rd, and couldn’t figure out the first round for nothing.
So if Seattle sees Conley as special, I wouldn’t be surprise if they drafted him higher than projected, say somewhere in the 3rd.
But aside from that, I was really hoping to see more in DGB, if he was a top talent that might fall into reach. Perhaps the next few things I read will contribute to that position.
Missed on Wagner altogether.
Found what I was looking for. Later in this thread, someone posted a source for a detailed analysis of DGB’s game. I will study that, and perhaps have my answer (the guy likes DGB as the #1 WR in this draft class).
Okay, here is my assessment of the DGB assessment posted below at:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_nfldraft_dorialgreen-beckham15
Here is my major concern. DGB’s high grade is based almost exclusively on his size and athleticism, and not his ability to play football. He is the opposite of a technician at the position, ala Baldwin or even Kenny Bell. And in general, how does that typically translate into the NFL? He either becomes something he has never been, or he fails.
Specifically, he exhibits questionable route-running, with none of the nuance that the better WRs display.
He displays question levels of effort on the field.
And he fails at beating press coverage. From the assessment:
The one concern here is his 11.1% SRVC against the nine press attempts. As he is a big wide receiver, you would not expect Dorial Green-Beckham to struggle with jams or bump and run coverage. The issue does not lie with his size. We’ve harped on the issue of rawness, and when we last saw him on the football field, Green-Beckham still struggled consistently releasing from the line of scrimmage. Again, this is a more of a lack of reps, and technical proficiency, rather than a mental makeup, or physical issue. With that in mind, we have hope—albeit no certainty—that he can develop in this sector of the game.
This, along with his drop rate, raise major red flags about his ability to translate his game to the NFL. The writer of the assessment asserts that DGB is literally the best WR in the class (not considering his off-field issues, only his football potential), better even than Cooper. I think anyone is making a major leap thinking that this man will do what is necessary to excel, or even remain, in the NFL. What I see lacking is what made Jerry Rice a HOFer, and drives Doug Baldwin every year: the will, and the discipline, to be the best.
Nice analysis. Very complete. And, IMO, remarkably similar to Rob’s (a compliment), Rob also pointed out that DGB struggles against press coverage, his skills need refinement, his level of effort (his “pissed off for greatness” factor) is alarmingly inconsistent.
BTW, while you were watching DGB’s film, did you see him flash as a true #1 WR? Sure, there’s lots of mediocre tape to muddle through. But there are plays where DGB pops off the screen.
In the end, the biggest question mark about DGB is how he will handle the challenge at the next level. Fortunately for him, he has Bob Stoops standing by him, vouching for his commitment and work ethic since transferring to OK.
Picks by the local yokel Danny Kelly on Field Gulls
2.31 (63) DT Grady Jarrett, Clemson 6’1, 290
3.31 (96) NB Bobby McCain, Memphis 5’10 195
4.13 (112) WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford 6’0, 211
4.31 (130) WR Kenny Bell, Nebraska 6’1, 200
4.35 (134) LEO Shaq Riddick, W. Virginia 6’5, 246
I see 3 names we talk about extensively, but the DT is out of left field.. or is it? 😉
Minus the corny Aaron Donald lite comps Grady Jarrett is for me easily the best pash rushing Dt in the draft. And when you watch Vic Beasley tape there are games where he is getting double and triple teamed for three out of four quarters allowing Beasley to tee off play after play on the QB. The Clinton McDonald comps are lazy. Jarrett is ready to play now has better technique, tools, and a ferocious motor. McDonald benefitted from those around him Jarrett based on his college tape was the other way around.
As for a short not long nickel CB….quick I think we can all name CB’s we would like Seattle to pick if they changed the parameters. Steve nelson, IFO, Damian Swann….i like Danny Kelly but the,rationale that they did an in season trade for Burley as to why they would burn a third on a guy who’s primary job is to cover slot recievers and might offer return skills, then in the fourth pick an almost exclusive returned seems like trying to over think the Seahawks thought process.
I like the idea of getting a quick slot cornerback to back up Burley and Lane. I’m not sure what round that would be in, I suspect that the Seahawks can find someone in the 6th or 7th. The temptation to take McCain in the third is that he might do punt returns, and you find someone with the same skills as the rest of the secondary.
The interesting thing about Kelly’s choices is that he finds all his offensive line from the 5th round on. This would be a very practical appoach to drafting. Defense first, then wide receivers/ kick returner, and then offensive line.
Alaska I think nickel corner is definitely a need. I’m with the thought that a corner for lane/burley could be found later then a third.
I find it hard to believe the best pass rushing DT in the draft would last until the end of the 2nd round. That would be quite nice but it is just crazy to me.
Two quick points.
Best 4-3 1tech. We all love Mebane? Same gap responsibilities. Which a,ton of teams do not employ that style of interior presence. Again Mebane is a beast and he was taken in the third. Jordan hill when not injured is nasty with like 6 sacks in 5 games. Same profile.
2. Honestly watch Vic Beasley highlights. Seriously. Grady Jarret in the Clemson v. Ohio state tape is literally taking on two to three blockers and at some point around the half way mark of the 2nd quarter nearly every play for the rest of the game is drawn sea from Jarrett.
Listen he’s not Danny Shelton and can’t anchor like brown/goldman. But for someone to run defense plus attack from the inside the Seahawks could do waaaaaaay worse. And if bane and hill aren’t healthy…will be doing way worse next year.
Danny Kelly’s 7 round mock:
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/4/13/8354477/nfl-mock-draft-seahawks-seven-round-grady-jarrett
Charlie, we posted almost simultaneously on Kelly’s mock! I like about half of what he picked, but disagree with his priorities. He listed alternative players. I prefer many of the alternatives to the guys he chose.
I am giving more serious thought to Rob’s cautionary view of Kenny Bell. I remain a huge fan, but in terms of how he fits the Hawks, relative to what is on the roster, it isn’t as comfortable a choice. Does he compete with Baldwin? Compete with McNeil? Replace Kearse and Lockette? Replace Walters for sure. Okay, that would work for me, but it is more of a sideways move than a giant addition.
Get rid of Baldwin, Kearse and Walters, and Bell clearly has a starting job. On team that needs an ideal #2, he’s an easy choice. But.
Simpler than that. He doesn’t replace anyone on day one. He competes for the #2 and #3 WR position, returns kicks, and if he develops into a better WR in the next year or two, becomes a starter.
For a 4th or 5th round pick with the potential to earn a starting WR spot, not bad.
I’ll try to answer that Steele,
We need a PR/KR receiver. We are going to get one. I think we can agree that this is “a fact”.
We now have to look at the likely suspects and see what we can get as extra WR value.
Kenny Bell competes with McBride, Montgomery and others that bring the PR/KR talent first and whatever else second.
If you think that out of those guys he is the best and/or has the biggest upside etc. then he is your guy. If not, he is not.
He doesn’t compete with anybody currently on the roster. He might in the future but that is not why we would draft him.
Re trading up in the 2nd round:
I posted here a link the other day to something i posted at fieldgulls showing that we get more value from our picks at late rounds 5-7 then from our high rounds 2-4.
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/4/12/8392555/to-trade-up-or-not-to-trade-up
I just saw another post that calculated the success ratio of picks in rounds 1-3 (75%) and later rounds 4-7 (40%).
http://12thmanrising.com/2015/04/13/seattle-seahawks-eleven-draft-picks-mean/
If we go by those stats, our hit ratio for a mid 2nd round pic is 75%. If we use the 2nd and 4th round picks to get two player we stand a 30% chance of hitting on both guys and a 91% of hitting at least one of those picks.
Food for thought.
I think the ratio is more like 60% success in the first down to under 20% in the 4th round. Now that the Seahawks are established it will be harder for players to make the starting team. On the flip side we know that there are openings at cornerback, LEO, offensive guard and center, and kick returner. Should be a good mixture of veterans and draft rookies competing for spots.
EranUnger, your historical take on previous Hawks drafts is interesting. The trading down “more the merrier” strategy leaves more room for error, costs less. The legendary Jimmy Johnson Cowboys drafts were extreme versions that worked spectacularly because of great scouting.
However, every draft is different. In this one, I see certain positions becoming extremely top-heavy. WR, edge rusher for instance. So I think it has to be opportunistic case by case. Leave the option of trading up for extreme needs, trade down (or trend that way) for depth.
“The legendary Jimmy Johnson Cowboys drafts were extreme versions that worked spectacularly because of great scouting.” Steele
Interesting that you said this. Both JJ and PC came from college with immense success. They saw and recruited many of the players they drafted- either playing for, against or recruited them. Both hit walk off grand slams in their first few drafts. I’m pretty sure JJ recruited Emmitt Smith before he chose Florida over Miami. The list is long on stellar draft picks for JJ, in his short time in Dallas. PC has an incredible list going thus far, but it’s mostly from his first few drafts-the last 2 being particularly uninspiring. That well of inside info has dried up for PC the last couple of years. What do we do? Bring in his son Brennan who happened to coach WR,TE’s and was the head recruiter at the U. Does this give us an upper hand coming into the 2015 draft? I sure hope so!
Is Brennan more focused on the O line than other things? That is his official job, anyway.
Yep. Here’s his wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brennan_Carroll
Also this vis Fieldgulls: He’s built a strong reputation as both a coach and a recruiter, and ESPN’s Jeremy Crabtree recently ranked Carroll first in the nation as a recruiter for his 2016 class.
1. Brennan Carroll
School: Miami (Fla.)
As the recruiting coordinator, Carroll is actively involved with every prospect who ends up with the Canes, and Miami has jumped out of the gate quickly with 12 pledges and seven ESPN Junior 300 commits. He has done some quality work on his own, however, as the primary recruiter for top recruits like inside linebacker Shaquille Quarterman and receiver Ahmmon Richards.
Brennan has been doing homework, and getting it done right, for years. He’ll have firsthand knowledge on many of the top prospects for the next 5 years or so. Big plus to having him on our staff! Oh yeah and he’s the coaches son. haha
A nice breakdown of the WR class – interestingly, Harmon has DGB as his #1 receiver.
http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/2015-nfl-draft-wide-receiver-rankings.html
I posted this earlier, but I think it might get buried and I hope someone can tell me if it has any merit?
Rob’s last 2-round mock has Atlanta picking a DT (Grady Jarrett) at #42.
If we offered them Mebane plus our pick at #63, would Quinn (must be intimately familiar with Mebane) & Company bite? What if we added a 7th?
If so, which WR could we get that early in the 2nd while also dumping Mebane’s $5,700,000 cap hit?
I think Quinn would prefer Jarrett as opposed to the aging currently injured Mebane and that contract. Jarrett in the second is younger and cheaper and I love Mebane but can only go up whereas Mebane has maybe three good but probably not great years?
Yeah, but he’s not just getting Mebane, he’s also getting a 2nd (#63) and maybe another pick, too. In essence, he’s “trading” Jarrett (if that is who his pick would be) for Mebane, and getting #63 too (plus maybe another pick).
On the flip side, the Seahawks are trading Mebane, their #63, and maybe another pick for, say Dorsett or maybe Agholar, and are saving $5.5 million against their cap.
I like the scenario present. I’d just take jarret for the Seahawks as that I’m as of yet despite the massive stockpiling of DT’s this off season remain unimpressed with almost all of them. And think Grady Jarrett next to michael Bennett/ Avril is more impactful then Dorsett or agholor. With the caveat being there is a desperate need for a kr/pr.
30 year old DTs coming off a serious injury aren’t major trade bait. Especially ones who’ve never been to a pro bowl (snub or not).
Why would Dan Quinn want Mebane and his $5.5mm/year salary over a rookie DT stud with a higher draft rating?
Because he also gets another 2nd round pick (and maybe another pick) for a player he is familiar with who has played very well in a defensive scheme he coordinated — a guy who appears well-respected in the clubhouse. Quinn should know how he is progressing re: his injury.
Sorry I should have highlighted the $5.5mm/year salary more.
What would you do if you were Quinn?
Trade for Mebane who can give you 1, maybe 2, more good seasons at a total cost of about $10mm (and that’s a pretty big maybe for year 2); or
Draft Grady Jarrett – probably the best 4-3 1T in the draft – in R2 where he can develop over the course of his 4-year rookie contract for about half the cost of Mebane for 2?
Taking Grady Jarrett at the top means you have no confidence in Mebane, Jordan Hill, Rubin. It also means goodbye to the flashy WR options, and the top O linemen like Sambrailo, Grasu.
Isn’t Jarrett a luxury pick?
Rubin is not yet a penetrating 1tech in his career and currently the roster has tons of run stuffing bodies to clog lanes but Mebane’s hurt and so was Hill. Who has been hurt two years in a row.
Its not really saying goodbye to flash….all the WR’s discussed are very very good. But none in our range are white/cooper/parker. They are all guys with a slight hitch in their game, size, speed, one dimensional play….
I like Grasu, sambraillo, marpet….but Grady Jarret is the best 4-3 dt coming out. He’s light so that’s a knock. And he’s short so that’s a knock. But he’s just a tick in this waist smaller then bane and he has relentless .attack. The three Oline discussed as of late all for various reasons could be had in the third. Two smaller school prospects and the other is a pure center of which of which teams it seems do not put a big point of emphasis on drafting high..
We can argue about wr and oline but the injured d that played in the superbowl was a mirage. just like lynch Seattle will one day need another Mebane and for me since hill keeps being hurt its not a luxury.
Another example of a logjam and the draft board moving up: I see Jarrett, M.Bennett going in rd. 2, M.Hardison in rd.3 and a favorite in here, Nunez-Roches moving up to rd. 3 on some boards.
Great tweet from PFT today:
“This time of year, the term “rising up draft boards” means “draft experts are finally catching up with scouts and coaches.”
I’m super stoked for graham because he’s jimmy graham….but beyond not having that pick on day one there is a total log jam with good players possible great players at about the 40th pick….and every need to me can be talked away or alternately made to be seem to be the most essential need on this team…oline? WR? Backup to jam? Its all going to a need
I never advocated SEA taking Jarrett at 63. I was merely arguing why I think Quinn wouldn’t trade for Mebane as opposed to drafting Jarrett at 42.
But having said that, picking at 63 is like picking first in R3. Jarrett is a legit R2 prospect, so getting him at the bottom of R2 is a good value. Besides which, he’s about a good a 4-3 1T as there is in this draft. He would fit very well in SEA’s rotation as Mebane’s replacement. The comparison to Clint McDonald isn’t far off, as long as you’re comparing him to the Clint McDonald from 2013 when he had 5.5 sacks.
Mebane doesn’t have that much trade value in my opinion. You probably have a better chance in offering up Jimmy Staten who I’m sure Quinn had some say in drafting last year.
re: offering up Staten instead of Mebane, part of what would be attractive to the Seahawks is offloading Mebane’s cap hit. Some posters to this blog have even talked of cutting him. I like his game, but I think his cap hit savings could go a long ways towards giving contracts to the guys who are coming off their rookie deals and still leave room for a free agent run stopper.
Why trade for a player coming off an injury and getting him for just 1 year. There’s no guarantee he could or would sign another contract to continue to play.
Does anyone else here think the Hawks may have a hand shake deal with Wiesnewski? Seems he stopped visiting other squads after his talks with the Hawks.
If so, this opens up numerous directions for the emphasis of the draft; making a trade up for a legit WR more likely.
Any facts to debunk or support this theory?
The Wiz has visited numerous teams after coming to the VMAC. Bucs, Jags, Pats, Skins and others most likely. I do think at this point in the FA process that Wiz won’t get signed until after the draft, most likely after May 12. The Hawks are definitely waiting until after May 12 to sign any more FA’s. I’d be surprised if we don’t sign a veteran Center after this date. PC has said it’d be difficult for a rookie C to come in and start right away.
Thanks!
A different Matt here. What is the significance of May 12?
I agree that Hawks will most likely sign a veteran C. Then have competition between Lewis, veteran , and a drafted rookie.
I predict O Line will be: Okung, rookie, Lewis or veteran, Sweezy, Britt
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but to answer your question Matt, I believe May 12 is now designated as the “end of Free Agency.” Meaning once May 12 passes, any player signed does not count in the compensatory pick allocation formula for the next year. Since we should be in line for several picks (for losing Maxwell, Carp, Smith, Schofield, etc), if we were to sign a player like Wis before May 12, it could cause us to lose one of those picks.
Yep a player signed after May 12 does not affect comp picks.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/04/14/stefen-wisniewskis-world-tour-stops-in-washington/
He visited WAS on Friday. Apparently his torn labrum is the problem.
I’d prefer Chris Myers if they go the veteran route.
If the WR go early (Cooper/White/Parker/Perriman gone by 20) and often (Dorsett/Strong/Agholor/Green-Beckham gone by 40) I don’t see us trading up that high for any of those last four.
So do we go:
2nd Funchess/Coates/Smith
3rd Finney/Galik/Morse
or
2nd Grasu/Marpet/Jackson
3rd McBride/Hardy/Conley
If we could get Devin Smith we’d have to take him. He’s a perfect fit for us to instantly stretch the field. Highly doubt we have a chance at taking him even if we were to trade up to #50. With that I’d be happy with option ‘B’ going interior OL first(i like all 3 of your proposed options) then McBride or Conley. Hardy does not impress me.
Ed, I am struggling with a similar set of scenarios.
Taking the O linemen earlier would be more “responsible”, but leaves you with WRs who are very good but not quite Rob’s “The Man” type. You might include Sambrailo in rd. 2, and Lockett in rd.3 or Dezmin Lewis, who I think is underrated.
As for the other scenario, I doubt Devin Smith falls to rd. 2. Taking either Funchess or Coates is risky—-exciting but risky, boom/bust. Finney/Gallik/Morse would be fine, I think.
If we choose Coates in the 2nd, then we could go OL and DL in 3 and 4 and get our returner (and potential Golden Tate clone) in Montgomery in the late 4th. I like Montgomery better than McBride or Bell because of his pure speed, strong build, elusiveness in the open field, and YAC potential. I think the team that gets Montgomery is going to be pretty happy.
I keep forgetting about Sambrillo. We could also remember we signed Blackmon, who has more success as a PR/KR than Walter. Maybe PC/JS don’t think we need it as much as we all do.
2nd Sambraillo
3rd Lockett
As much as Funchess and Coates have seemed to stumble in the draft process, I am intrigued. Starting to think Coates and Smith gone before 50. NE could even go Funchess if DGB is gone to Baltimore.
” We could also remember we signed Blackmon, who has more success as a PR/KR than Walter.” Ed
Good point Ed! Blackmon is insurance if we don’t get a return man and/or an NFL ready CB in the draft. He’s a great depth signing that alleviates obvious needs at those positions. He can be upgraded through the draft, but is a solid option if we strike out.
I don’t this Seattle will trade up for a few reasons. The 1st is I’m not sure we will find someone that will be willing to trade back that far in the 2nd with what talent is still on the board. 2Nd is if they do I’m thinking they are going to want to much for us to move up. I could see us moving back into the top of the 3rd round for a late pick to use to move up later in the draft to get a player we want. A scenario something like we did when we got Jesse Williams. Something like trading from 63 to 70 and getting a 7th and still being able to get Ali Marpet and then trading our 167 and that 7th to get back into the mid 150’s to get a lineman that’s fallen a little. To many scenario’s to play out for my mind to comprehend.
Actually, I think it’s the opposite case in this draft. Remember nothing happens in a vacuum and everything is relative.
For example, take PHI and DET, the 2 most likely trade partners for SEA in R2. Both teams need OL help – PHI needs an OG about as badly as SEA, and DET has openings at OG and RT. This draft his historically deep at OL, particularly in the mid rounds.
PHI has one R4 pick (113). I’m sure Chip Kelly would love to have back-to-back picks in early R4 to go OL. This would allow him to focus elsewhere in R2 and R3.
DET has zero picks in R4. They have zero picks in R5. I think they would highly value SEA’s early R4 (112).
BTW, JS has a good relationship with Marty Mayhew- the 2 have worked several trades since JS became the Hawks GM.
Two huge questions.
1. Chris Matthews. Is he a one-hit wonder who will regress to his not-great 2014 preseason form, or a starter? All we know right now is that he is “the type” of WR that needs to be on the field starting.
Therefore, because I do not have full confidence in Matthews, I place tall target WR as high priority. (And no, Jimmy Graham does not fully address this, he is a TE hybrid).
If Matthews turns out to be great, even better. You have two big WRs+ Jimmy Graham. Triple Towers.
2. The eternal search for the next Harvin/DeSean Jackson undersized gadget/speedster/deep threat/returner. We continue this with our focus on Dorsett, Lockett, T. Montgomery, M.Alford, etc. We need the returner, obviously. Do we burn a high pick for this, or find it cheaper/lower?
Bottom line, I would go for both. If we are talking about adding what is not already on the roster, I don’t see either reliable tall target or burner/returner on the roster now. (Matthews just isn’t a guarantee.)
I don’t have full confidence in Matthews either. Can he become a consistent target for Wilson? It takes time to build a rapport between a QB and WR, and when the SB came around Wilson had the confidence in Matthews to let it rip. Gaining Wilson’s trust is telling, but then again it’s only 1 game. It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. If we don’t take a tall WR in the draft it shows a level of confidence, in Matthews, from JS/PC that he can become consistent contributor at WR.
If RW only trusts Baldwin and Kearse, the passing attack will not be upgraded as much as it could be. Jimmy Graham will become a new security blanket but need RW to be open to more variety.
I do have full confidence in Matthews, in fact I’ve thought that if he could recover from his injury that he would be a solid contributor to the Seahawks. Now I don’t know whether that means #1 or not. I just believe that Matthews will be a solid contributor if they throw the ball to him.
There are other receivers and Graham is an exciting new player. I’m not sure that the Seahawks will ever even have a #1 when you consider that past seasons have featured Baldwin and Tate as the go to guys. Most receivers will average 3-4 throws their way per game, maybe the go to guy gets 8-10 passes. In some ways it would be better if there were 3 or 4 go to guys. Much harder to defend.
“I’m not sure that the Seahawks will ever even have a #1 when you consider that past seasons have featured Baldwin and Tate as the go to guys”
I’m sure people use to say the same about TE’s. Seattle had to have a blocker. Then they trade for Graham. For me this passing game is shifting, changing and adapting.
It shure looked like Russ had a lot of confidence in Matthews to me.
For one game. Who knows if he loses confidence in Matthews just as quickly. Certainly he’ll get his chance, but would you ink him in as starter at this point? I want a Matthews 2.0 just in case.
At the minimum, all they need is a 2013 redux. Sid Rice 2.0, Golden Tate 2.0 and a returner. Graham upgrades Zach Miller.
” I don’t see either reliable tall target or burner/returner on the roster now.”
As far as returners, we have Baldwin, Will Blackmon and Kevin Smith. Blackmon has a lot of experience over his career returning punts and kicks. Smith was very good returning kickoffs in college for the UW (25 yards/attempt). The cupboard is not bare. Another returner to compete would be good but it does not need to be a receiver. There are plenty of guys in the draft at other positions that can compete for the job.
Baldwin is not a good returner, and Blackmon is not a top tier returner either. Baldwin made very questionable decisions about whether to bring the ball out or down it, and the result was the offense was consistently starting well inside the 20. PCJS please end our kick-off/punt agony and bring in Montgomery! Or Lockett or Corey Grant. Let’s make ST back into a weapon.
I wouldn’t want to go into the season with any of those 3 as the primary return men. I think a player who can return well will be a priority in the draft.
Baldwin was terrible on returns. Blackmon is serviceable, that’s it.
I honestly don’t know why there are any questions about Matthews. Has anyone seen anything in his play that would suggest he can’t be a starting NFL WR? Some might say, “That’s just it. We haven’t seen any of his play to know.” But we saw the SB, and did anyone see something that made them say, “:…yeah, I don’t need to see any more of that.”? I sure didn’t.
In fact, everything I saw made me want a want so much more of Matthews and so much less of everything else our passing game has been in the PCJS era, save for the timely ADB and ChopChop miracle catches. The knock on Matthews seems to be that he has slow-developing top-end speed and lacks YAC ability. But I say Wilson’s passing skillset is less suited for horizontal YAC explosiveness and much more suited for vertical explosiveness. Heck, f Matthews can catch two deep red-line balls a game he would be an effective starting WO for our offense. YAC, SHMAC. Just haul down a couple Wilson bombs a game. Matthews has shown me he is perfectly capable of doing that. And I want to see it.
One thing I loved about Matthews was that Belicheck had to adjust his defense specifically to counter Matthews when he put Browner on him. No other receiver on the Seahawks would be able to dictate the defensive personnel like that. Now we might have two with Matthews and Graham. What if you put Browner on Matthews again -> who is going to cover Graham?
Would you start Matthews based on one game? I wouldn’t. He didn’t make the Browns roster. He had one good season with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, got injured, and then they cut him. He was working at Foot Locker and got a tryout. If he was all-world, given the physicals he has, he would not have landed on the street, would he?
He is even less proven than Doug McNeil, who at least has been continuously employed.
I look at them both as fourth round rookie types.
I’m sure most of you all are as tired as I am hearing the debate over the #1 pick-Winston vs. Mariota. Winston has been the consensus #1 until now. Jameis visited Tennessee today and will visit NYJ tomorrow. This is interesting stuff. Winston has said recently he’s going to Tampa. If he was so certain why is he visiting other teams? I think the visits could be validating Mayock’s point that Mariota>Winston. All the visits could be postering to some extent, or it could signify that Mariota is going to be Tampa’s choice. Mariota,who’s visited numerous teams,would be my choice if I was TB. The 18 ints. Winston threw last year are VERY concerning. Mariota threw only 14 picks in the last 3 years COMBINED. I know the offenses they each ran are vastly different, but still you can’t deny that not turning the ball over is highly important.
Add Chicago to the list of future visits(Wednesday)for Winston.
I don’t think I would take either at 1 or 2.
TB – Glennon showed promise as a rookie (19 td/9 int), Lovie came in and wrecked the whole thing with McCown. Let Glennon play and draft some OL or DE
Ten – trade with Chicago (1st and Cutler) or SD (1st, 3rd and Rivers) for Ten (1st and 3rd) then draft best DL.
I wouldn’t touch Winston with a ten foot pole. He is going to be a bust.
Both QB’s have some pretty big concerns IMO. Mariota has ripped up awful Pac 12 defenses during his college career with the exception of Stanford (probably the only shutdown defense the Pac 12 has had to offer lately). I know he put up a ton of points on them last year, but Stanford’s defense regressed a ton last year. Then he plays Ohio State with an NFL caliber D line and gets badly knocked around. Almost every time he hit the ground it looked like he was in a lot of pain getting back up.
I would say my big concerns with Mariota are Oregon’s offense vs. a lot of bad Pac 12 defenses and he seems a bit fragile.
I agree completely on WInston.
Another tall WR available in deep UDFA: Ian Hamilton. 6-5 225
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLNdUUnfokk
And let’s not forget Isaac Blakeney 6-6 220
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11841313
I read a transcript of an interview with Blakeney. He sounds like a really intelligent, competitive guy, the sort that might bond with Russell Wilson. I think he ran a 4.6 40 at his pro day, but he looks faster than that on film. Definitely athletic. He’d be a great UDFA pick up for the Hawks.
Same 40 time as Kelvin Benjamin.
I really think there are punt and kick returners that can be found in low rounds and in UDFA, who can do the job as well as anyone in the top rounds.
Christion Jones, for instance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y78r624nCnM
He looks like a football player – he also was on the kicking team and had that stick at the end of the video. I like Lockette, but if we could get a guy like this who could return kicks and punts + be on the kicking teams + play some WR, potentially you replace Walters and Lockette with a younger guy. He isn’t very tall or the fastest guy, but obviously has vision when it comes to the return game.
Also, this looks like the year to move up for a receiver.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2016WR.php
Next year looks thin.
With the exception of the top 2 or 3, the RB’s next year don’t look as strong or as deep as this year’s group either. Something to think about when planning for the post-Beastmode years ahead.
I think Abdullha, Devin Smith, Dorsett and Lockett are all still going to be on the board at 63. I see the Hawks moving back into round #3. And trading up in said round.
Okay so this is my prognostication for what SEA will do in R2. First, I want to disclaim that my arguments in favor of a particular scenario aren’t based on my preferences, or what I would like to see happen. Maybe there’s some overlap, but really I’m just going off what all of us can see, read, hear or otherwise study about JS and PC, about their preferences in draft prospects and their draft day proclivities.
I won’t restate the argument Rob already constructed as to whether or not SEA is interested in DGB. I think it’s clear they are, from mid-season UMo visits, to pro day scouting, to reports of “digging deeper” into his past. Combined with their demonstrated interest in pursuing a #1 WR target last season and this off season, I don’t think any of this is a smoke screen designed to draw attention away from some other WR (or other) prospect. JS/PC covet players who tilt the field. DGB can tilt the field. He was one bad decision away from playing out his college career with Mizzou and being the #1 WR prospect in the draft. Maybe the #1 prospect period.
As Rob stated previously the most obvious scenario for SEA to draft DGB is if he slips past 50. If KC passes him up at 49, I see JS getting on the phone to either of PHI or DET. Trading 63 + 112 to DET for 54 makes the most sense, pick value-wise (it’s the most equal exchange in terms of pick points) and JS has good rapport with Mayhew, but as I said previously, I can see Chip Kelly wanting back-to-back picks at 112 and 113 in R4 to make that trade. In any event, SEA would need to jump ahead of ARI, PIT, CAR and BAL at 55 thru 58 because it’s unlikely DGB would slip past all of them.
I don’t think that scenario will play out, however, because I don’t think DGB will make it past the gauntlet of WR-needy teams from 44 thru 49. If SEA truly want DGB, I think they’ll have to trade up ahead of NO at 44. The cost in draft picks to move up 20+ spots in R2 is prohibitive. I just cannot conceive of JS making that kind of trade. It would be completely counter to his drafting strategy over the past 5 years. But I can conceive of him offering a player/pick package to one of two specific teams like this:
ATL at 42 needs a running back. Steven Jackson is gone. Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman are not the future of the position for that franchise. Sure, ATL could draft a RB this year – it’s a fairly deep class – but they also might be interested in adding Christine Michael to their roster. I can see JS offering 63 + 130 + CMike to ATL for 42.
CLE at 43 needs WRs. They could be takers for DGB themselves, but I’m willing to bet Josh Gordon will make them think twice. They also need a new RT and depth at C and DE, and an extra pick in early R4 could really help them out with one of those. Meantime, they still desperately need WRs, and Jermaine Kearse would be an instant starter for them. I can see JS offering 63 + 112 + Kearse to CLE for 43.
If no scenario to get DGB presents itself, I think SEA will go with BPA at a position of need. I’m sure that’ll get some “no duh” comments but here’s my twist. I think that with the depth of the OL class in this draft, combined with so many picks in the OL talent “sweet spot”, from SEA’s perspective, the BPA at a position of need available at 63 will be a DT.
Seattle is not going to draft another headache. Not happnin!
Thanks Oz. Do you possess some inside information on how JS/PC view DGB? If not, your comment is pretty much your personal opinion, which is both appreciated and duly noted (you don’t like DGB). While I recognize all comments on the blog are more or less personal opinions, this one seems at odds with everything I’ve read about SEA’s interest in DGB, which is reported to be intense. I don’t see them wasting scouting or time resources on “another headache”.
I stated at the outset of my comment that, inasmuch as possible, I based my prognostication on what I know about JS/PC – both in terms of the kind of prospect they covet and they strategy they employ in drafting that prospect. DGB is a rare talent – extreme size and athleticism that can tilt the field. This isn’t my opinion, although I share it. It’s the decidedly popular consensus among draft experts, notwithstanding the usual detractors here and there. But according to you, if SEA were to draft DGB, you’d be surprised. I wouldn’t.
I don’t think we’ll ever find out. That is to say I think DGB gets drafted too early for SEA to get. But if he somehow slips far enough, I won’t be surprised when SEA calls his name at the podium.
One more point about DGB. In response to Rob’s early posts about DGB and whether or not SEA should be interested in him, let alone whether they already were, I was dead set against him. You can go back and verify this. I wasn’t shy in expressing my distaste for him.
Like you, I did not want another headcase with off field issues mucking up the Seahawk culture of always compete. But then Rob kept posting bits of information – a tweet here, a scout sighting there – that to me clearly indicated an interest beyond what I would’ve wanted. I could’ve brushed it off because it didn’t comport with my idea of the kind of prospect SEA should target, but I’m really interested in figuring out what the team will do ahead of time. I don’t know why exactly. I guess it’s because I want to think that I think like JS/PC. Oh ego, stop!
So when I really looked into the NFL WR prospect DGB (and not the media presentation of the person DGB), it became clear to me what JS/PC see in this kid football-wise. He’s still somewhat distasteful to me as a person (although that’s tempered somewhat relative to Frank Clark), but I cannot deny his talent.
Same thing with RB Mike Davis. If I’m being 100% honest, I couldn’t remember which team he played for when I first saw Rob’s post about him (for the record I thought it was Auburn). And no, I wasn’t personally happy with the idea of SEA taking a RB in R3, let alone at all in the draft, and let alone some barely known gamecock. I was even less happy after watching his 2014 game film. But despite what I thought about him, clearly JS/PC saw something more – he was one of a handful of VMAC invitees and the only RB at that. So I looked at his 2013 game film and saw a different player.
I’m not saying I’ll be thrilled or even happy if SEA takes Mike Davis in R3. But I won’t be surprised anymore if they do.
Chawk, I don’t think Mike Davis is impressive in any film, including 2013. I see a effortful, chugging backup type RB. Reminds me of the worst aspects of Stevan Ridley. No real moves, no real power. Runs high. I really think he is one of the most overrated backs and the draft. And JSPC think he’s underrated? I disagree.
No worries Steele. That’s your prerogative to disagree. Trust me, I’m not that enamored of Davis either.
But you should question why he was the only RB invited to VMAC this year.
Do you really think JSPC would invite a prospect to a private workout merely as a smokescreen?
Are you aware that, in addition to SEA, Davis has meet with ATL, JAX, NE, TB, IND, DAL?
Here’s some info about his pro day performance:
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/south-carolina-football/pro-day-recap-davis-shines-gamecocks-workout-2015/
And some comments:
“Not the same guy (in 2014). I think he had a rib injury early, but that’s not what bothers me. You look at (former SC Players) Alshon’s conditioning, Clowney’s last year and now Davis? He’s got talent, but he can’t just half-step and think he’s going to make our league.”
“RB Mike Davis of S. Carolina is solidly built, with good feet, is an underrated pass catcher. He gets lost in convos, but I’m enjoying his tape.”
“Rhythm runner who is at his best when he’s getting plenty of work. Davis has a surprising ability to turn on the jets and get on top of the secondary quickly for long runs, and his north-south mentality is a fit for the pros. With an ability to play on third down as well, the only thing holding Davis back is conditioning. Davis won’t make too many defenders miss, so he can’t afford to lose the corner speed he showed in 2013. Davis can be a very capable NFL backup with the potential to become a starter.”
BTW I’m not trying to sell Davis at all. I’m just sharing the stuff I came across that would explain SEA’s interest in him.
Seattle is exactly the team that would do that. They work on a different level to every other team. Besides, DGB’s issues are totally different to someone like Harvin.