Jesse Williams lasting to #56? It could happen
Time for this week’s mock and only one trade in this projection. I think it’s fairly obvious New York and Tampa Bay will come to some kind of deal for Darrelle Revis. Despite the posturing going on at the moment, the Jets would be silly to let the only suitor drift away when they appear willing to part with a high first round pick. In twelve months the Jets will get nothing. Zilch. Nada. They cannot franchise Revis per the terms of his contract.
If they want extra’s like Minnesota got for Percy Harvin, I’d argue don’t jeopardise the deal. After all, the difference between the #25 pick and the #13 pick is worth more than a 2014 third rounder and a 2013 seventh. Plus the Vikings would’ve had the freedom to franchise Harvin next year. Plus Harvin isn’t coming off an ACL injury.
In fact, why hasn’t this deal been completed yet? Surely the Jets won’t blow this opportunity? Sure, Revis is a good player. A very good player. But they’ll lose him for nothing next year anyway. That much is almost guaranteed. Get the deal done already.
The Seahawks’ pick is fairly straightforward. I think they have to consider what defensive tackles are on the board at #56. In this situation I considered the pick a bit of a no-brainer. While Jesse Williams is considered a borderline first rounder in some quarters, ESPN’s Scouts Inc ranks him as the #55 overall prospect and Mike Mayock only has him as the #5 ranked 3-4 defensive end (below even William Gholston).
There are two things to remember here in terms of a potential fall. Firstly, Williams seems to get banged up a little bit. Nothing too serious, but he left games as a junior and senior. He missed the Senior Bowl. He didn’t do all the drills at the combine. Secondly, he’s not a pass rusher. He’s a one-dimensional defender who excels in holding position and taking away running lanes.
He reminds me a little bit of Stephen Paea who went #53 overall in 2011. Williams is bigger in size, but Paea has greater core strength (as emphasised by his 49 reps of the bench press). Both will be effective against the run. The Seahawks weren’t particularly hard to run against in the second half of the 2012 season. Put Williams alongside Brandon Mebane and a healthy Red Bryant and that might change. Plus, he has the flexibility to cover Bryant at end which could be crucial.
I’ve included a possible third round pick for the Seahawks at the bottom of the article — Xavier Nixon, left tackle from Florida who’s more likely to end up on the right side in the NFL.
I also wanted to represent a report today suggesting Cordarrelle Patterson could drop into round two, with LSU’s Eric Reid heading in the opposite direction. Patterson has a lot of physical talent as a kick returner and open field runner. Yet he’ll come into the league needing to learn pretty much everything from scratch. He has one year of experience in the NCAA playing receiver, didn’t run any complex routes and his technique catching the ball (always into the body) leaves a lot to be desired. He’s quite a reclusive personality too which I suspect will be difficult for teams to judge. How badly does this guy want to be great? He’ll need to want it, given the sheer number of technical improvements he has to make.
That could lead to a fall. This report, if true, wouldn’t shock me. But of course at this time of year, teams just love to put out a lot of misinformation. So tread carefully.
As for Reid, he’s a brutish safety in the Kam Chancellor mould. While he had a pretty average year for LSU in 2012, I can see why teams needing a hard-hitting safety will look his way. He’s better than Taylor Mays who went in the second round. Quite a few people who’ve worked in the league have talked positively about Reid this off-season.
By the way, if you missed it earlier Kip wrote a fantastic piece on the late round quarterback options for Seattle. Make sure you check it out.
First round
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#1 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) They’re keeping their cards close to their chest. It’ll be Fisher, Luke Joeckel or Dion Jordan, surely? |
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#2 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) They need a pass rusher. Pure and simple. |
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#3 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida) This will be a long rebuild. |
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#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Hard to pass on a player who can lock down the left tackle position for years to come. |
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#5 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) Again, I just have a hunch that he’ll go earlier than most people expect. |
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#6 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) If they get Milliner, they can feel pretty good about this off-season. |
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#7 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma) This is far and away the teams biggest need following the Carson Palmer trade. |
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#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) They could move up to make sure they get Smith. They can’t rely on Kevin Kolb. |
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#9 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) He could line up in multiple looks for Rex Ryan. |
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#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) It’s hard not to love this guy. |
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#11 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) With the top left tackles off the board, they’re forced to look elsewhere. |
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#12 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama) A lot of men in that Miami front office like road grader-style tackles. |
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#13 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) He’s too good to stay on the board for long. It seems certain this pick will be traded by Tampa Bay for Darrelle Revis. |
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#14 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas) Another solid addition to that Panthers defense. |
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#15 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) Local connections plus they need a pass rusher. |
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#16 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) They need an outside linebacker. |
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#17 Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia) He could sink in a bad way, but he is the prototype fit at outside linebacker in Pittsburgh’s scheme. |
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#18 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) This would be a nice get for Dallas. |
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#19 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) He could fall further than this. |
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#20 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Fills a need. Athletic potential could make this a steal. Character concerns linger. |
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#21 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Fierce hitter with playmaking qualities. |
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#22 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama) They must have a physical runner in this division. |
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#23 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Talent-wise he deserves to go in round one. |
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#24 Justin Pugh (G, Syracuse) A huge need for the Colts. |
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#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) They hit on Rudolph and Harrison, so why not go back for the Notre Dame hat-trick? |
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#26 Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame) Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings is in Minnesota. They could go for a pass catcher here. |
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#27 Robert Woods (WR, USC) Receiver looks like a strong option here. |
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#28 Eric Reid (S, LSU) Perhaps we under estimated his upside? Talk today suggests he could be a first round pick. He does have admirers. |
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#29 Jamar Taylor (CB, Boise State) Gives off a Bill Belichick-pick vibe. |
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#30 Tank Carradine (DE, Florida State) He hopes to work out on April 20th. |
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#31 Datone Jones (DE, UCLA) Defensive line will get early attention you’d think. |
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#32 Margus Hunt (DE, SMU) Who knows where this guy will be drafted? This isn’t out of the question. |
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
#34 San Francisco – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#35 Philadelphia – E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State)
#36 Detroit – Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#38 Arizona – Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
#39 New York Jets – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#40 Tennessee – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#41 Buffalo – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#42 Miami – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#43 Tampa Bay – Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
#44 Carolina – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
#45 San Diego – Terron Armstead (T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff)
#46 St. Louis – Kyle Long (G, Oregon)
#47 Dallas – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#49 New York Giants – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#50 Chicago – Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin)
#51 Washington – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#52 Minnesota – Quinton Patton (WR, Louisiana Tech)
#53 Cincinnati – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#54 Miami – D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston)
#55 Green Bay – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#56 Seattle – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#57 Houston – John Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#58 Denver – Christine Michael (RB, Texas A&M)
#59 New England – Denard Robinson (RB, Michigan)
#60 Atlanta – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#61 San Francisco – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Baltimore – Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn)
Seahawks 3rd round pick: Xavier Nixon (T, Florida)
Hey Rob,
Surprised you went with Williams over Kawaan and Lemonier, are you projecting this as a possible pick based on run stopping ability?
Thanks, Ray
Yes, as I sense that is what they want from the LE-DT-DT. More and more this looks like a hybrid 4-3/3-4 rather than an orthodox 4-3 under.
I was curious about this too… So the 4-3 under model you explained well earlier this year is modified here with Seattle, especially now??
Would you consider if they took Williams a better choice than Swope? If they are planning ahead to replace Rice or Tate to save cap space, would Swope’s Value at 56 be greater than Williams to you?
…and on that same note, if we wanted to go that direction with SO many 2nd round options, could you see us trading up in round 2 to snag Hopkins or Patterson?? Just curious…
I know people like Williams as a run stopper but I’m not a fan. I wasn’t impressed with anything I saw from him.
He’s not my favorite either. But I guess if Carroll and Quinn decided that he is who they need…
Agreed. Too much baby Huey, not enough mean streak.
I thought he did a good job holding the point of attack, especially against the double-team. Looked like a really solid NT, but I guess could get plugged into our line anywhere they want a 2-gapper. Didn’t see much pass rush and in this mock it is really unfortunate that Hankins goes the pick before us. I don’t see Hankins making it even close to our pick at #56, but Williams definitely could.
Nixon…
doesn’t that guy have knees like somebody’s gramma? Or was that the other Florida tackle?
That’s Nixon. He’d need medical checks for sure. Talented though.
Nixon seems to play up or down to his level of competition, but two of those games were against Texas A&M and South Carolina. His name is escaping me but Spurrier has a marginal pro prospect at RDE next year that Nixon looked pretty good against 🙂
He had a good game against Clowney (got beat badly once, held his own the rest of the way). Kept Green the other OT in Florida on the right which is no mean feat.
It’s interesting that Rang does not have a medical flag next to Nixon’s name. When I saw Missouri at Florida he looked like death warmed over. The announcers kept talking about how many surgeries the guy’d had. Richardson tore him a new one. That can happen to anyone. Also, Jeff Driskel is impossible to block for. So, that’s no big deal. It’s more that the three long looks at Florida I had this year (Bowling Green, Missouri, and Louisville) were not positive for him.
Then, I have a weird knack for only seeing talented players’ worst games.
You tell me Nixon’s a player, I’ll believe you but he’s definitely got a low floor. Interestingly, Rang also has him rated surprisingly high to me #124 overall and 12th best tackle.
You’ll find this interesting:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9157628/antoine-winfield-close-signing-seattle-seahawks-sources
If Winfield signs, that basically solidifies the priorities as OLB, TE, and DT in the draft. OLB is the biggest short-term priority IMO, but which position is chosen in the second round is anybody’s guess.
TE seems like a possible option with its’ depth and in how that would make our offense extremely potent.
WR or TE in R2 would not surprise nor offend me! Swope / Ertz (if there-doubt that) / Hopkins / Kelce…sure!
We should add RT into the mix too. And maybe a replacement for Chancellor??
His extension talks didn’t go anywhere obviously.
Who says they’re done?
In reality though, what does the team ACTUALLY need behind a starting OLB?? And even that is questionable (Smith was serviceable as the starting WILL).
This team is set. I don’t know why it took me this long to realize it. This year could truly be a BPA type draft for the Hawks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of the picks are in positions where we already have an established (aging) starter.
I think this team’s need goes a bit deeper than what is being put on the field. At WLB we have several candidates who are mostly undersized but fast. On the same token, Malcolm Smith played well at the position last season, making me wonder if we need a replacement at all. We should also consider that the WLB comes off the field in 3+ wide receiver sets, diminishing the position’s value. That said, I would love to see the Hawks take Khaseem Greene because of his ball skills, football IQ and leadership qualities. He would definitely play WLB first year. However, I wouldn’t target WLB as an early-round need.
I would probably peg OT and TE as the “target” positions at 56, if we even should be targeting a position. By this I mean if Zach Ertz and Khaseem Greene are available, we take Zach because he fills a position of greater need. Not only would he make the offense more dynamic this year, but he would make Zach Miller more expendable in future years as opposed to paying his massive salary.
The same goes for Breno, who is set to make $4.25 million this year. With the amount of chemistry he’s built with the other linemen and how good he’s become vs. the run, I’m betting he’ll be asking for about the same amount if not more when his contract expires next year. It’d be nice to have a solid young, but more importantly cheap, option.
I even think WR trumps WLB in terms of need for the Seahawks. Sidney Rice’s salary goes up in 2014 I believe, and the Hawks would prefer not to pay him so much. I’m betting that they will want to add even more depth at receiver through the draft as a result. So I don’t think Ryan Swope is such a non-option; would not be surprised at all if the Hawks took him Round 2. Or, if the draft goes as Rob is projecting, we could trade down to the top of Round 3 and nab him. Nice.
The remaining need is DT. But I don’t think there’s a significant drop-off in terms of skilled DTs from the second through the fifth round. We will be able to pick one up later who can come in and play a solid bulk of snaps, like Bennie Logan or Montori Hughes.
This seems like an option of antiquity (3 months ago), but I wouldn’t bet against the Hawks drafting yet another pass rusher with the second round pick if the right player turned up. If Corey Lemonier is available when the Hawks pick I might be a little surprised if they don’t take him. Sure the Hawks solidified their pass rush for the next year. But after this year we have to pay Avril like $11 million next year and Michael Bennett will be a free agent. So it’d be ideal to add a pass rusher this year, and there are some good ones who could fall to us.
At the end of the day, I think #56 will be either an OT or a DE.
I agree with just about every positional analysis you have here except TE. Harvin may trump the use of as many double TE looks (but I could be wrong) and McCoy may have a better year if he remains in the role if for no other reason than RW will be improved and make all receivers better. Plus there is the Fells wildcard, we don’t yet know if he is just a training camp story or the next Brandon Browner.
There are experts that have Long available at 56, others that have Armstead at that spot, and other still that have Watson available there. None that I saw have all three still selectable that low but all three could provide salary relief at RT and perhaps a talent upgrade in the long run.
WR salary relief is also interesting and there will definitely be some taller outside options like Patton, Hunter, Williams, Dobson, and Rogers. Rob Rang currently has Seattle selecting Hunter at 56.
The interesting thing about the WOLB candidates is that so many of them are still on most mock boards at 56, which could mean they could wait until the third round on that role. But it seems like that spot on the team is the most open for a guy to possibly come in and start as a rookie. McShay even has Arthur Brown available at 56 and NFL.com has him rated at 90.3 which puts him at #12 on their big board and anyone rated 90+ would be considered future superstar material. As long as they don’t call him the “safest” pick in the draft (Aaron Curry reference).
DT looks like despite the depth in that area of the draft, it will be heavily picked over before Seahawks are on the clock. But maybe they’ll still go there.
The Seahawks seem to have a habit of building their team to completion before the draft even starts so they are not beholden to any “needs”. Word is at this hour Winfield could still be staying in MN, but if they can complete that deal, they will have really made some upgrades all around at least on paper. But they could still pull a shocker like a QB2 at 56 or even another DE, as you suggest. They’ve really given themselves a lot of flexibility.
Very interesting.
I’m still not sure this is happening. Ian Rapoport is saying that Winfield still hasn’t decided between Seattle and Minnesota. I think he has and is just playing one team off against the other to maximize his contract. While I’m intriqued by the prospect of him being a Seahawk, I hope Seattle wouldn’t pay much for him. If his asking price was too high, I’d pass.
If Khaseem Greene or Quinton Patton where there at 56, would you pull the trigger on them before Williams/DT?
I wonder if they would trade up slightly to just before Minnesota(in this scenario) to get Patton. Seems they like him and they need future WR relief… What do you think Rob? Peeps?
I hope we aren’t trading up for Patton… I’d rather trade up for Swope, but personally I’m content to sit it out at 56. Hope someone like Greene drops to us.
I agree Colin. Swope or Greene r the 2 that I would trade up for. (just a bit though)
They both just seem to have that focused ‘it’ factor…
My two hopes at 56 are Greene or DeAndre Hopkins. I’d go nuts if he fell to 56 and we got him.
If you’re talking about Sylvester Williams, my answer would be hell no. While Khaseem Greene is one of the players I covet (Patton not so much), I still think there still is a void at the interior of the D-line. Sylvester Williams would go a long ways towards solving that problem, more so than any of the remaining DTs.
Sorry SunPath, in context you’re obviously talking about Jesse Williams (duh), you have to admit all these Williams’ make things confusing. In his case I’d prefer Greene, there are DTs further down the board that IMO wouldn’t be a big drop from a talent prospective from what Jesse Williams has to offer.
I am not a Xavier Nixon fan, I’ve only seen one game from him and that was the Sugar Bowl where he seemed lazy all game. On one play he doesn’t see a CB blitz and I remember him start to help the left guard block on the DE, but stops when he sees the CB coming. Instead of falling back to block the corner, he stops and lazily throws out an arm and allows the corner to get the sack. He seemed to get easily confused when any kind of blitz came his way the entire game and wasn’t much help in the run game either from what I saw. I’m not sure what everyone else sees in him.
I don’t want to defend Nixon because I’m not a HUGE fan. But, Jeff Driskel has to be in the discussion for worst starting QB on a team that spent the whole season in the top 50. Not only is he a terribly inaccurate passer, his inexperience meant that he often didn’t see trouble brewing and get his line out of bad plays.
More often than not, a CB blitz is the QB responsibility and the OT can be made to look awful by a QB that makes poor pre-snap reads.
Even still, at his best Nixon is probably not a quick change-of-direction guy.
This was a really good mock. Makes a lot of sense to me. Man, so many great value picks in the 40s, would be so tantalizing to unfold like this, to not root for Seattle to trade up into a second slot in the 2nd round from something. Be surprised if they did, though.
I’d like the Jesse Williams pick. I’d like John Jenkins, too.
Id prefer to trade down from 56 into the 3rd for an extra 4th. Prob have to give up a late rd this or next to even the deal. Then we would have 2 3rds, 2 4ths, and 2 5ths. Perfect for a depth oriented draft.
Pick – 1st choice – 2nd choice
Mid 3* – OLB Sio Moore – Jamie Collins ( I definitly see OLB as a need this year. Yes our WLB is an early down position, so they need to be stout against the run, which is the #1 reason Hill was starting and not Smith)
Late 3 – TE Travis Kelce – Vance McDonald (no explanation needed. We need another TE)
Mid 4* – DT Bennie Logan – DE Devin Taylor (Im not sure Logan will last, but Taylor and his 36″ arms will)
Late 4 – QB Matt Scott – Zac Dysert (I am hoping my brains out that Quinn doesnt make the cut to 53)
Early 5 – CB Nickell Robey – Tyrann Matheiu (even with Winfield signing, either of these guys have the talent to play nickel corner in the near future)
Late 5 – S Shamarko Thomas – Earl Wolff (I almost like Wolff as much as Shamarko, but he will be available much later)
Late 6 – OT Emmett Cleary – Dann O’Neill (both can play T)
I really like your idea of trading down as it gives the Seahawks a cluster of picks right in the area where there is sure to be a lot of value. Having said that and for what it’s worth, I think someone (Claire Farnsworth?) was saying that because Seattle had traded it’s 1st rounder for Harvin, the FO was working extra hard to make sure it hit on it’s 2nd round pick.
I don’t see a need to trade down because we don’t have many openings on the team. We need quality – not quantity. Besides draft picks we have our practice squad and numerous free agents we have signed. They all want to play too. We might get 3 starters from the draft this year, and a few part time backups.
Trading down, usually a good policy. Although Rob didn’t include him in this 2-rounder, I am kind of operating on the presumption that Sio Moore will be off the board before 56.
I haven’t been overly impressed with Williams from the few games a have seen him. He does do one thing very well though and that is anchor and cause a big roadblock in the middle. That could easily be appealing enough for the Hawks to target him. I do think he has some upside collapsing the pocket as well. They way he plays makes me think he is still figuring things out. Room for growth is another thing the Hawks seem to favor.
I know he doesn’t strictly fit the mold but if things fall this way I really hope they swing a trade to move up a few spots and pick up Khaseem Greene. I just love the way the kid plays and think he would fit right in. Not blazing speed but he fits the “what he can do is more important than what he can’t do” mantra. What Greene can do is make plays. That’s also why I wouldn’t rule out Mathieu despite physical and maturity shortcomings. You can always find a spot for a play maker.
I’m a huge fan of Greene. I still have a hard time considering Mathieu that early though. Major character red flags aside, for every big play he makes he gives up three.
I didn’t necessarily mean Mathieu in the 2nd. More that I could see Carroll liking his upside enough to take a shot at some point. Late third actually seems like a pretty good spot for him to go. If he gets his head on straight, his value as a back up FS or nickle CB plus a punt returner and maybe even a few gadget plays at WR could be worth the risk. Or he is still a knuckle head, they cut him and the 4th round pick turns into an all pro. It’s nice having confidence in the front office.
The stories about New England’s interest in Mathieu are interesting. They are normally sneaky in their true intentions, it makes you wonder if they are trying to get other teams to take him or if he is really on their board.
Rob, curious about the Jet’s 2nd rounder. Last week you had them selecting QB Mike Scott. It looks like Scott is a poor mans Russell Wilson and a QB needy team like the Jets should grab him. For the sake of this conversation, let’s say the Jets trade down to Seattle at #56 and we then move up to the Jet’s spot, forget about the compensation for now.
Do you think it would be wise to draft say WR Hopkins or WR Patterson to groom for Rice’s replacement after this season? Which of those two players would you choose?
thanks
If Hopkins or Patterson are there, then I pull the trigger and don’t look back.
Have to agree. Even though I don’t personally like Patterson, I can’t deny the explosiveness.
^^ Wondering if Cordarrelle Patterson could turn into a go-up-and-get-it receiver or if he’ll always be a space-receiver. Thoughts?
It would be a steal if the Seahawks could land Jesse Williams at #56. I am an Alabama alum and have watched every game Jesse has played. He is a rare combination of size, strength and quickness, combined with outstanding intangibles, including a real nasty streak. Nick Saban’s system required Jesse to take over the interior of the line while a picket was formed to push forward to the QB. This defeated the spread offense, because there were no running/option lanes. If Jesse had been asked to rush the passer, he could do so very well, with his quick feet and aggression. He is also the strongest guy in the draft. Doug Farrar and Greg Cosell rave about him at the link below, insisting he is the third best DT in the draft.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-corner-podcast-greg-cosell-evaluating-defensive-tackles-164902232–nfl.html
Well, it’s another thing I disagree with Cosell about then. I’m a fan of Williams but I wouldn’t put him down as the 3rd best DT. Happily see him in Seattle, though.
“He is a rare combination of size, strength and quickness, combined with outstanding intangibles, including a real nasty streak. Nick Saban’s system required Jesse to take over the interior of the line while a picket was formed to push forward to the QB. This defeated the spread offense, because there were no running/option lanes. If Jesse had been asked to rush the passer, he could do so very well, with his quick feet and aggression.”
This is how I see him too. I’m an unabashed fan of Jesse’s, even though I went into examining him expecting to be underwhelmed.
I see a guy who is incredibly malleable. I think there is evidence that shows he can play the 3 or the 5 (and definitely the 1). He is scheme diverse and to pigeonhole him as a strict zero or 1 is almost criminal, since he’s probably the only player in this draft that can play 3 of the 4 DL positions that we have.
He played the 1/0, because he was the only one capable of replacing Chapman. He isn’t a pass rush specialist. But he can collapse the pocket with a fierce and consistent bull rush. And his ability to morph into whatever a coach needs, leads me to think he’ll be capable of being far more than he is appears on draft day.
I’m with Attyla. I’d like it better if I’d seen more of the diversity on the field, but if we’d seen it, there’s no chance he’d be available in the second round. It takes projection, which brings risk, but as Rob has done a a nice job highlighting this year, finding an effective NFL DT always requires projection. Even the guys who light it up in college and have the measureables disappoint at an alarmingly high rate. I love Floyd, Star, and Richardson but history suggests that even trading up into the top 10 to nab one of those three may not work out. And with Williams, his downside may be Red’s replacement.
If I don’t see it, then I don’t buy it. That’s my problem. There was never a pass rush. What about 3rd downs? Your not running on those?
I get what’s being said above, but I don’t see any moves. Very basic and stiff. I don’t even see the speed or fast feet either.
I do see muscle and run stuff. I see Mebane MAYBE if that’s what you want?
I’d like better I guess.
Again, if he’s hasn’t proven it, then I’m not buying that he can do it. At least not with the 56 best prospect.
R. Wilson showed it all over the place. There was not a question about it. He did everything, showed every aspect, showed smartness, could read def’s and look at every read while on the run, etc. Everthing was there, but one issue. His height. But, he still “showed the tools”.
To me, J. Williams has not “shown it”. He has not shown the “pass rushing tools”.
Can’t disagree with that. Obviously he had to put on weight and change his role. Saban liberally substitutes his DL and Jesse was frequently pulled for a pass rush package. If one wasn’t familiar with how Saban operates, they could easily see it as proof of Williams’ lack of ability to perform that role. Saban, not unlike Carroll, has a deep stable of players and like Carroll, plays them liberally. It helps to keep the recruiting pipeline flowing when they can show 18 year olds, that they will play and play early.
I think everyone would like a better pass rusher at 56. This draft is deep, but not in the kind of talent that we would like better. Sometimes, it’s best not to fight the draft, but take of it’s bounty when it’s offered.
At some point (I’d argue very soon like within this season or next), we need to have Mebane’s OR Bryant’s successor on the roster. These are guys that have been nicked up or lost for the season the last three seasons — sometimes both at the same time. Right now, we have Clinton McDonald as a backup for Mebane and that’s it. He’s a massive drop off at that position.
We also don’t have an Alan Branch type of base 3 tech anymore. It’s certainly possible that we are moving away from that role. Jesse is not a step down from Alan in that department. He is a guy who can produce pocket collapse and even if he showed no moves — still was capable of that. Which is more than we got out of Branch.
Plan A clearly was to get a pass rush 3 tech. I believe Pete and John looked at the draft class and saw no guys worthy of a day 1 pick to fulfill that plan. I’d argue, that they didn’t see one in day 2 either. Because if they did, they wouldn’t in my opinion have been willing to part with their first round pick for Harvin despite his availability. Even if they saw a guy in R2 that they liked, they would have kept the pick and traded down some to get closer to where he should be picked — or simply picked him at 25 and ignored the reach laments from the well groomed experts on the cameras.
If Plan A is not realistic, then what’s Plan B? We’ve been scratching our heads for a while since the Harvin trade came down. But what we still know about this draft is, it’s deep in big fatties and we still have pretty severe need for those exact guys. Our DL costs more than the rest of our defense. Mebane and Bryant are central figures in that cost.
Age, salary cap cost and availability all point to our 1 and 5 being high risk/need positions in this draft. Honestly, when it comes to big dudes that fill holes and eat blockers — Jesse is my #1 prospect for that aim by a pretty wide margin. And that’s due to his flexibility to play either the 1 or the Bryant end. I don’t see Hankins, or John Jenkins or most of the other bigs being a good candidate for Bryant’s role.
That role (Bryant) is a very unique position on this team. Outside of the cover 1 free safety, I’d say it’s possibly the hardest position to really fill. Even if you don’t agree that Jesse could develop into a better pass rusher — a contention I can’t refute for the reasons you rightly stated — I still contend that he would provide the best value in terms of immediate competition and future succession of players that NEED significant quality depth.
And that’d be the worst case scenario. One could easily envision he plugs in for the base 3 tech immediately and provides excellent run defense with a marginal improvement in pocket collapse. And best case, he develops into a better pass rusher — maybe even a Red Bryant who actually CAN get some pass rush.
He certainly can’t be WORSE than Bryant at that function.
Good detailed post. Very insightful.
If they are anything like me, here’s my take on thoughts you said as a counter:
1. WR was a very high need, maybe even #1. That being said, we were not going to get Richardson. And everybody else “to me” was a tier below him and 2nd round rank.
SO, they get #1 need filled and can NOW work on that DT/DE-pass rush where the value is.
Plus Harvin was to good to pass up.
-Then they got there DE’s too so now on to DT for 2nd rounder where value is.
2. I agree we need a Mebane or Red successor – Why not get one that can pass rush too?
If your talking about just a run stopper, then that should be easier to fill late in a draft.
3. I personally would “move away” as you put it, from the one dimensional aspect or technique. Maybe that’s extreem, but we kind of have 2 guy’s doing it right now. Both do better against the run, then any kind of pass rush.
But, we should at least have a more quick and swift moves, bull rush, full speed pass rush from one of our DT’s. So a new guy coming in can then, not only replace them, but also provide the pass rush.
4. IF they take J. Williams out on 3rd downs, then to me is another red flag really. Case can also be made that he’s not fit for it or not as good. I also seem to remember video of him in there on plenty of 3rd downs? Regardless, he’s a 1 dimensional player that he’s shown. This is similar to Irvin, and I’m not a big fan of that pick.
Final take: Get a guy that does it all OR move on and get a better player at a different possition. We can draft a big slug and meat eater later in the draft.
IF we go DT – Then I want one that offers some pass rush. This is my view of it.
If I want some more run support, I might look at a big beefy MLB instead, and then move our others to the outside and utilize Wagner’s speed.
This draft as Rob has stated before is really hard to get a handle on and of course JS/PC isn’t making it any easier with every move they made in FA. After 25 the talent drops off and its really hard to see in which direction and what players will be available from there to 100. In everyone else’s draft Khaseem Green will go in beginning of the 3rd and in this one Rob has Kawann Short at the end of the 2nd. I think for teams that need a QB the run won’t start until the 2nd round. I also think that there are 5 good TE and after that the talent really drops off and there quite a few teams that will be looking to fill that spot. So here we go.
56 Kawann Short DT Purdue
87 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati
123 Zavier Gooden OLB Missouri
138 Oday Aboushi ROT Virginia
158 Quinton Dial DT Alabama
194 Luke Marduarot LOT Azusa Pacific
220 Mark Harrison WR Rutgers
231 Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt
241 Daimion Stafford FS Nebraska
242 Keenan Davis WR Iowa
UDFA just a couple
Joseph Campbell OLB New Mexico
B.J. Daniels QB S. Florida
there are others but not going to list them all for UDFA. I have options that would change if Kawann Short or Khaseem Green isn’t there at 56 but in this mock Kawann is here.
I was just looking through the mock and do any of you remember Keenan Allen? I had a revelation while pondering his measurables of 6’2″, 206 lbs with a 4.71 40 yd dash. He runs the same time, while 100lbs lighter than terron armstead. I think I’ve found our surprise pick! Terron Armstead to the Hawks, 56th overall, and converted to WR! They’ll never see it coming!
Never see a 300 pound man coming? Sounds dangerous. That’s the kind of creative thinking that leads to the Suprbowl.
I really like this pick! Williams is so strong and it really stands out on tape. This is one of my favorite picks!
He’s definitely strong but does he have a chip on his shoulder? In that role he really needs to play with a focused anger that demands double teams. Couldn’t they just find a reincarnation of Tez in the 7th hiding under a rock?
YOLO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkY9b1NnsLY
The way he bursts out of the double teams, he just looks unblockable. He’s 44 now, shouldn’t he have some sons playing ball somewhere?
Tez was a top 10 pick. You won’t find one of him in the 7th round. Jesse is a tough player. He’s no picnic for offensive linemen to block. That’s why it usually takes two of them. I’m not thrilled about a NT as our first pick, but he’s a really good player.
Top ten pick just means someone thought you’d be good out of college. This front office finds those guys in later rounds.
The point is that you normally don’t find that kind of talent in the seventh round. He was special, and he would have been discovered at the D-2 level.
While it is less likely for player to have great success after the first round, this organization has had extraordinary success throughout the draft. If there was any team capable of finding a pro bowl DT in round 7, it’s them. Long gone are the days when we were stuck with Tim Ruskell picking the number one FB, the number one Deep Snapper, and another kicker with the late round picks, not to mention constantly trading up for character guys giving up quantity for non-quality. With Schneider, I would be happy every year if they traded away the 1st and second picks and came away with 4 3rd rounders and 4 5th rounders, because you know they’d still outdraft most of the league.
I posted this last week in reply to Davis Hsu selecting William Gholston with the 56th pick, and still really like a scenario like this.
Maz says:
April 6, 2013 at 2:26 am
I believe the Seahawks would really try and trade down at this point. That is if these were the best players available on their big board. Don’t get me wrong, I like a lot of the guys on that list you put together. I agree for the most part on Khaseem Greene, if he is avalable, take him. If not, no worries. There is real value in the 3rd and 4th rounds this year. I could see Seattle trying to acquire additional picks in each of those rounds this year, for their second round pick. This would give the Seahawks 2 picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds, a pick in the 6th round and 4, 7th round picks. We could end up with something like this…
Brandon Williams DT, Vance McDonald TE in the 3rd, Aaron Dobson WR, Will Davis CB in the 4th, Marcus Lattimore HB, David Bakhtiari T/G in the 5th, Joseph Fauria in the 6th, Cooper Taylor S, Jeff Tuel QB, Jordan Campbell LB/HB, Jayson DiManche OLB/LEO in the 7th.
The 7th round in particular could go many ways. I think it will be used to acquire superior athletic developmental talent. In this example, the 7th round would be used to get a backup QB and some DII top tier prospects.
What y’all think about a scenario like this?
I think B. Williams could go before the 3rd round. And IMO, should go ahead of J. Williams who were talking about.
The Hawks have reached a little bit before when they like a guy. At #56, I think if they like B. Williams and he’s on there radar, then they would just take him there. I would be fine with it. He’s got some major potential.
I don’t see us trading back also. I see us trading up this year if anything. Looking for quality rather then quantity. We already have a lot of late picks anyway.
That’s cool, but in this mock B. Williams is still on the board. He is also projected to be selected in the 3rd – 4th rounds. He is a small school guy. If he played at some major university, he would be selected in the 1st round possibly. If he is available #56, they may still trade down, depending on whether they can get him later. Remember RW? They loved him and let him go til the 3rd. Our F/O will roll the dice.
As far a trade up is concerned, it’s possible, but IMO, less likely. At least at @ #56. Seattle is not afraid to cut guys. This is not a quality over quantity draft either. It’s not super stacked with superior talent at the front of round 2. Plus, don’t forget we traded up once already. This draft’s value is located in the 3rd and 4th rounds, which is why it makes sense to trade down. We are probably still interested in re-cooping the pick for next year we traded, as well.
Who do you see them trading up for Hawkfin?
I see value in all the top rounds. But only a few draft players will make the team. At the most three will be starters. So I don’t see a need to trade down. Even if you do trade down you give something up. Last year we gave up Flecher Cox to move down and get Bruce Irvin. Was that a good decision? Only time will tell, but I can say we wouldn’t be talking about drafting a DT if we had picked Cox last year. And after the losing clemons to injury and the way Irvin played, we added two free agent DE’s this winter.
AlaskaHawk: I’m not saying there is not value in the top rounds. I am saying that from the F/O actions, they chose Harvin. I understand we are young, and that we have only but a couple positions of need this year. However, I know the F/O is not only looking at this year. So we do need fresh talent always. Win Forever. They passed on Cox because of Irvin. He was the guy in their plans.
All I’m saying is that our team has improved to the point that we need the best quality players we can get. Statistically speaking anyone below the third round has less than 50% of a chance of being a starter. And we already have plenty of practice squad guys. As for future backups, we always got next years draft to look forward to.
Hey Maz,
Yeah, I would LOVE to land B. Williams in the 3rd. I can’t see him falling to the 4th at all and I kind of think he’s a player on the rise to where he could be a 2nd rounder even.
He did really good in the Senior bowl and practices, so he could go higher even though he’s got that “small school” tag. I like him. There is risk. I don’t think Hawks fear small schools though.
I know he was still there in this mock, but I wouldn’t have passed on him for J. Williams.
In fact, Short was still on the board too. I would have went him. I guess in this mock, a trade down would make sense since there was 3 DT’s still on the board. (Short & William’s)
But, I have Short in a complete different tier. Short would have been a no brainer for me there, with most of my other likes already gone too.
Since it is possible B. Williams could be there in the 3rd, you could always go another position of choice too and come back to him. I didn’t see a lot there on this Mock though other then Short. But, you could go LB, CB, WR – Then B. Williams. I still would not want to trade the 56, because you will keep lowering your quality which each move down.
As for your last question: If it were me, I would not trade down the 56 pick. And I would not trade down the 3rd round pick. I may move up for Greene or S. Williams if I could though.
That would be my target trade up I guess…
But, my full plan would be to try and move “BACK UP” into the 3rd or 4th by packaging some of my other picks together.
Ex. Trade 4th & 5th for another 3rd OR Trade 5th&6th&7th for 4th – Something to that effect.
This is what I meant by Quality over Quantity. We don’t need four 7th rounders IMO.
Greene & S. Williams is who I really want at 56. I would maybe move up for them once one left my board. Richardson would of course be my other love should he drop late in the 1st somehow
Cool, we are on the same page, when it comes to B. Williams. I would personally prefer Margus Hunt to fall to #56. Kawann Short is just too flashy. What I mean by that is, that he disappears during the game for long of periods of time. He is really great on a highlight reel though.
Trading up later in the draft, is still possible even if we move down 10 spots in the second round. It This gives us a early 3rd as well as our original 3rd round pick. It would actually allow us to have more flexibility in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds. These are all rounds, we should have absolute confidence in our team, to improve. At the end of the day, we are looking for the most athletically gifted, highly competitive, intelligent players, we can possibly add to our team. Street smarts, common sense, and life experiences, do factor in as well. As these are factors in life which can influence, a persons will to win. If there are 11 guys the F/O feels are better in this draft, I believe the Hawks will bring them all in.
J. Williams is on my list, but more for the 3rd round or later value at a need. Not at #56.
The no rush/sack ability has me down on him. I do think he can anchor and run stop very well. That is by far his great asset, but the lack of push and rush ability knocks him down to the 3rd IMO. He’s very weak at this area.
He looks like a powerful LB really to me. Kind of like Upshaw of last year.
So I’m not in favor of this pick here. I’d rather have Short. I would also take B. Williams ahead of J. Williams.
All offseason I’ve been looking for guys that can penetrate as we all thought that’s what Pete would want based on the roster of the ’95 Niners he talks about as being close to the perfect defense. As Rob pointed out earlier, some moves that they’ve made make it seem like that’s not actually what they want. I get the sense that the one trait they want is someone that will not get moved off the ball so they can clog up running lanes (which Pete has been saying from Day 1). Guys that can hold up very well against the run and provide above average push/rush would be Lotulelei, Hankins, Sylvester Williams, and Jordan Hill. Lotulelei is the best player in the draft, Hankins is more of a load in the middle but he can shed at the line and splash around in the backfield, and Sylvester Williams might be the perfect fit for this type of role. Jordan Hill is small (6’1, 300), but is the best player against the run in this draft. He provides above average pass-rush, but his size could be a limiting factor in this defense.
Then you look at guys that can just hold up at the point of attack, and I would say J. Williams, Margus Hunt, Jordan Hill and J. Jenkins. IMO Williams is the best of the 3 and can eat a double-team pretty consistently. Hunt has a ton of upside and if he developed a pass-rushing repertoire, could be a monster. Jenkins is just a big body out there, and I don’t think he’s especially strong, or stout against the run. I’m not including Brandon Williams because I’ve only seen his highlight tape and can’t really tell what’s going on.
Obviously I’ve left out Floyd, Richardson, and Kawann Short. No chance Floyd or Richardson are there at #56 barring catastrophic medical issues, but I see Short as the same type of penetrator. Short was often double-teamed and didn’t fare well. When you get him 1-on-1 and he’s trying to get into the backfield is when he’s at his best IMO. Doesn’t really fit the mold of what we’re looking for in a Branch replacement.
I like your evaluations of the types of players each are, but I don’t see the relation with who we’ve brought it equals a “run clogger” who doesn’t add pressure?
Seems to me, were trying to find anybody and everybody that gives us a pass rush. And for good reason, we have none outside Clemmons and the occasional Irvin.
We NEED a pass rush up the middle BAD. You can spin it anyway you want, but if our FO fails at that we will continoue to have a great weakness there and our Def will somewhat of a letdown.
I don’t buy it though. I think we will add somebody to pressure up the middle. In the mean time, we’ve fixed our edge rushing by way of free agents. And maybe Irvin gets better.
We need a every down DT that has a pass rush. 1st year he can be a rotational guy, but then a replacement.
I think J. Williams is not a good fit the more I think about it. I don’t really want him at all. We have our run cloggers right now. We need to rotate them out with some pass rush. And that guy should also give us the ability to be a every down DT as well.
We need S. Williams. 🙂
But, I think Short can do both too. And B. Williams is next in like. Jones is a later sleeper that I like.
It seems that the Seahawks have specialized roles for each DL in both run and pass situations. Red, Mebane, Branch would be a massive down-line in a 3-4, with Clem (Avril), the over-sized Rush End/OLB. The nickel package is the speed package, where pretty much everyone is rushing the passer. Bruce, McDonald, Jason Jones (Bennett), Clem (Avril).
We have lost Branch and I believe McDonald is still un-signed. The prevailing logic this off-season has been that we would be looking to upgrade Branch with a Dana Stubblefield type player. 6’4 – 300 or thereabouts that could shoot gaps or otherwise beat the 1 guy he would be going up against. Now that they’ve traded out of Round 1, there isn’t much of a chance that they will get a player with this skillset, as Kawann Short was really the only guy that had a chance of falling to us at #25. They have added Bennett and Avril to fill two other holes on the line, but the 3-tech remains the most glaring, and is frankly problematic if you are looking for that penetrator. The one answer we might have on our roster would be Bennett, but I don’t think they intend to use him as a Base 3-tech.
An idea that has been quietly circulating around the comment section is that they might not want/need that premier pass-rusher. Maybe they are content to introduce another run clogger, generate pressure from your LEO, press receivers at the line, stop the run and make the offense one dimensional. So how do you get pressure doing that? Blitz more.
At this juncture with the limited cap room we have, no shot at the prototypical 3-techs in the draft, and no answer on our roster other than maybe Bennett, I think it’s possible they draft one of the big guys and bring an extra blitzer from time to time.
McDonals signed on the same day they signed Portis and McDaniel. http://blog.seattlepi.com/football/2013/04/04/seahawks-sign-qb-josh-portis-dt-tony-mcdaniel-dt-clinton-mcdonald/
I think you’re right – we are going to target a young run stuffer for early downs. And with a bit of luck, he’ll push the pocket on early down passing attempts. I like Brandon Williams despite the prevailing concensus that he has below average lower body strength and cannot anchor. He looked pretty powerful to me at the Senior Bowl drills…
I have a lot of confidence in B. Williams. He was a 3 time first team selection at DT in his division. He is strong, he needs more and better coaching.
Rob & Kip
This draft really seems to be shaping up in a unique way. Certainly P&J have their individual players graded and slotted, but there seems to be so much flexibility. For instance, it seems fairly obvious that a man-eating DT who can push the pocket is the greatest need. However, is the value there at 56? I could see where they get an OL who has more value there instead of reaching for a need. I must say, this has been one of the most entertaining off-seasons I have seen in a number of years.
For my fellow Seahawkers… Check out Sando’s NFC WEST blog @ ESPN. Extremely enjoyable ready, a lot of snippets of info. Also, our fellow fans at Fieldgulls have some great articles on salary issues in the coming years. BTW, don’t miss the “Separation by Preparation” video. It will get you FIRED UP!!!
Keep up the great work. For years now, your site has been part of my daily fix.
“Go Hawks!”
Rob,
With all our picks and few spots available, how much would it be to move up in the 2nd (10 spots in your mock to get D. Hopkins/K. Greene) and then move up in 3rd (to get Z. Gooden/J. Reed)
Walter camp has a list showing who teams have talked to (not sure how accurate) but it has a few familiar names (M. Scott/D. Jones/Q. Patton) that have had private meetings. A lot of obscure late round names in the DL and TE/WR positions.
Did we just sign Jordan Babineaux?
Nope.
Yeah, one problem… this guy has a YOLO face tat. C’mon now.
What is ‘YOLO’?
“You Only Live Once”
I’m happy to see a big DT on this mock draft. I don’t know who we get with our first few picks, but I know I want a big 300 plus pound DT early. Someone to provide us with much needed depth behind Mebane. We’ve already seen what happens when Red isn’t at full strength, imagine if Mebane went down. Our defense would be neutered against the run. We’ve needed better depth behind Mebane and Red for some time now. Time to find a big anchor DT so we can give Mebane rest and keep him fresh while not losing defensive line integrity.
Agreed…I hope we grab Brandon Williams. In the Senior Bowl drills, he rag-dolled some of the best OL prospects in the country. At other times, he came in high and off balance and the opponent was able to re-route him to the turf. I see the tremendous upside. With a bit of coaching, he would play with better balance and technique. Others say that he has weak lower body strength and cannot anchor. Hard to believe as his legs and arse are gynormous and his upper body strength is so well developed from relentless lifting. But that rap is why we will probably have the opportunity to grab him. Great character guy with a wife, child and work ethic!