Time for the weekly mock draft update and the first for 2013. I promised video of DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) performance against LSU in this weeks Chick-fil-A Bowl and you’ll find it above. I’m going to break it down tomorrow, but wanted to include it in this piece because… well you’ve probably worked it out by now.
Thoughts on the mock
– This is the hardest time of the year to do a mock draft. Several teams haven’t got coaches or even GM’s. If Andy Reid lands in Arizona, will he really give Kevin Kolb another chance as the starter? If Ray Horton is appointed as a Head Coach, will it be to a team that suddenly has to adjust to the 3-4? Basically this thing could look a lot different in a fortnight. Not that it’s anything remotely like an accurate projection in early January. It’s just a discussion starter.
– I’m not convinced by some of the recent hype around certain quarterbacks. Tyler Bray has plenty of arm talent but made far too many mistakes this year and others have questioned his attitude. I can’t put him in the first two rounds at the moment. Suddenly Tajh Boyd is being touted as a first or second round pick based on his performance against LSU. I just can’t see that happening based on his overall 2012 performance. Mike Glennon is another player suddenly receiving a fair amount of hype. He still warrants (at best) a mid-round grade in my opinion.
– I still think Matt Barkley is the best quarterback in this class and therefore the most likely player to go #1 overall. USC has been a shambles on the field this year and a PR disaster off it. Lane Kiffin is lucky to still be in a job. He is completely responsible for the mess at Southern Cal. Yet despite all of this, Barkley had 36 touchdowns and a 157.6 passer rating – less than four points short of his 2011 mark where everybody was touting him as a top-ten pick. And for all those people questioning whether he’d be as good without Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, I present to you the Georgia Tech game – where Max Wittek managed a grand total of 107 yards and had three interceptions in a lousy defeat. Barkley isn’t the physical comparison to Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. He is, however, an accurate and accomplished passer with the kind of attitude you can build a franchise around. The Chiefs have a good supporting cast, they just need a guy to pull it all together.
– I haven’t included Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) following a report that he’s likely to stay in school for his senior year. With Luke Joeckel likely to turn pro, Matthews would have the opportunity to play left tackle next year for the Aggies. If he performs to expectations, that would put him in position to be a possible top-five pick in 2014.
– I’ve said this a few times, but this is a really good draft to be picking in the late first round. The talent differential from the top-ten to the 20-32 range is minimal. Whether the Seahawks pick 21st overall or 32nd, there’s going to be some good options to help keep this team moving forward. So basically, feel free to reach the Super Bowl guys.
Back to a first and second round projection today.
First round
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#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this. |
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#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season. |
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#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) Only Jacksonville had less sacks than Oakland this season. Moore had 12.5 in the SEC for Texas A&M. |
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#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line. |
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#5 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Explosive linebacker. Incredible athlete. Worthy top-five pick. |
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#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early. |
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#7 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) Are they seriously considering persevering with Kevin Kolb? Really? |
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#8 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Buffalo might trade back into the first round to get a quarterback, allowing them to take the best player available here. |
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#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) If they really want to play smash-mouth football, this is the guy they should take. |
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#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) There’s a bit of Dockett in there. He could be the next great three-technique. |
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#11 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) They need to take a left tackle. |
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#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee) The X-Factor player of this draft. |
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#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback. This would be a steal. |
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#14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Massive upside, but too inconsistent for the top-ten. |
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#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) Jordan will know he can make some money at the combine. |
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#16 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) The next best tackle on the board. |
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#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Pure playmaker in the secondary. |
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#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years. |
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#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine. |
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#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) With the tackles off the board, Chicago goes best player available on offense. |
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#21 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He had a tremendous Chick-fil-A Bowl. |
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#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect. |
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#23 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU) It’s time to start planning for life after Ray Lewis (legend). |
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#24 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) He’s contemplating whether to declare. If he does, he has more upside than any other receiver in this class. |
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#25 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) When building a 3-4, you need a nose tackle. |
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#26 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) Just a really good football player. Mr. Clutch. |
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#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end. |
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#28 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Blue-collar pass rusher. Underrated. |
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#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) He had a great year on a losing team. Can play tackle or guard. |
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#30 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) No, I don’t think the Patriots draft Wilson. But a team like Buffalo could trade into this range to get him. |
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#31 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) They could use another interior pass rusher. |
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#32 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State) He’d go higher if he showed more consistent effort. |
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#39 New York Jets – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#40 Tennessee – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#41 Buffalo – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#42 Miami – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#45 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Dallas – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#51 Washington – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Baltimore – Sharrif Floyd (DE, Florida)
#54 Cincinnati – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Green Bay – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#57 Miami – Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
#58 Houston – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#62 Denver – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
What about this Khaseem Greene felow? NFL Draft Scouts has him as the best OLB for 2013. Is he that good? Steal in the second?
He’s a ways behind Arthur Brown and Alec Ogletree for me… but I think he’s good value in the second.
Trade up w/Bmore and nab Coleman. You’ve got me drinking the cool-aid!
took the words right out of my mouth. Wouldn’t cost much to move up and if Coleman falls this far that is exactly what I would want the Seahawks to do.
Coleman after #24 is good value IMHO. I’ve heard a lot of comparisons to Megatron around here. Megs and even D Thomas had a dominant performance or holy Sh*t play (or two for Mega). Coleman looks great and plays smooth and with a good qb could eventually be something amazing. And this comparison isnt entirely fair but watching the Rutgers bowl game I just didnt see any of what you look for as compared to Hopkins. Yes Rutgers QB is so bad I’m not sure how he is starting for a major collage (must be the name) and yes Hopkins is more seasoned. but guys like Megatron and Thomas had the NFL waiting a few years. On a sad note after his first few years so did Chiefs WR Baldwin (what happens when your head aint right guys).
Now maybe I missed a few holy mother of wow plays (ok I probably did) but a separator, a alpha, they do it in the big games or they tilt the field so badly towards them that half the other teams D ends up gravitating that direction. Just didnt see that from Coleman and trust me I wanted to. Against LSU, one of the best college Ds and coached Ds Hopkins did make the plays and faced a lot less attention he should have and made LSU pay for it. Coleman couldnt against a down Va tech team, but not without talent just not a LSU team.
tried to ask/say this on previous Hopkins thread but had to many errors in it so thought I would give it a second chance. My issue with a WR in round 1 is unless he is better then one of the Rice, Tate, Baldwin trio the Hawks currently, have how many throws are there for a him. Right now our recievers are getting like 4 or 5 chances a game and the TE are getting a few throws, and our backs get a couple of throws as well. So if there is no injury I don’t see how a rookie wideout has that much of a shot at making an impact. I do get that are WR have all had at least some degree of injury issues but when you consider most WR take a few years to contribute I’m not sure how much depth a rookie WR actually provides. For those reasons I would prefer a DT or and OLB because they have a clear path to getting on the field and making an impact. My opinion would change if the thinking is that we could get a WR that is better then what we have in the top three spots now, is a WR like that out there Rob? my basic question is were does a fort round reciever fit on our team and who’s spot is he taking?
Rob and I both replied in the previous thread just now fyi
I’m realllly bored of studying so here they are for everyone to see:
Rob’s reply:
It’s a legitimate question, Nolan. If you draft a receiver in round one there’s always the chance they take a while to settle in. Roddy White – my comparison for Hopkins – didn’t become a consistent performer for 2-3 years in Atlanta. Golden Tate has hit it off this year after two quiet seasons. Of course, both players saw an upturn in performance when each franchise drafted a legitimate starting quarterback.
My argument for drafting a receiver would be that the position still carries a degree of importance and for the Seahawks to keep building with Wilson, he’s going to need more weapons. Depth is crucial – because you wouldn’t want to ask Wilson to play with scrubs if Rice, Tate or Baldwin dropped out. While the receiver might play a limited role in years 1-2, that could reap rewards if in that time he grows into an elite performer ready to be the teams long-term option as a #1 target. In the meantime, you let him act at the #3 or #4 receiver. It might not carry an immediate dividend, but the long term thinking is solid.
At the same time, a first round WILL or DT might play straight away. But defensive tackles have shown a similar ability to need time to grow into the league. Linebacker is more plug in and play, but you could ask whether replacing Leroy Hill and usurping Malcolm Smith is a big enough need to warrant first round consideration especially if a guy like Khaseem Greene is available in round two.
My reply:
I view the fact that it takes WRs a long time to develop as a big reason why the hawks should invest a top pick in WR now. 3 years is a good number to refer to when thinking about their progression. That’s the breakout year (Steve Smith, Golden Tate). In three years Sidney Rice will be about ready to move on.. he’ll be 29. At that point we’ll have a bonafide stud to come in that has been depth up until then.
Basically having Golden Tate as your 4th WR the past two years. It is a great spot to be in. The hawks can’t keep running out Braylon Edwards, Charly Martin, and Kearse. Well-built teams don’t do that.
OK well thanks to both of you for responding, what both of you have said makes a great deal of sense … in that a WR need time to develop but doesn’t that player need playing time in order to developed … how many oppertunities does the fourth reciever get in any offense let alone our offense which passes very selectively… Having said that if we are going to add a WR in round one would it make more sense to go after a Guy who adds something our current group of recievers lacks? What does Hopkins providet that our crurrent group oif recthat reievers doesn’t ? again not trying to argue with the pick just trying to get a better understanding of what Hopkins would offer
To raise a very different topic.
What about rush defense? It has left a lot to be desired since the first San
Fran game. According to Walter Football, it has fallen to #27 overall since, and may well be the reason that Washington beats Seattle this Sunday.
Walter Football reports that Red Bryant has been playing injured since that first SF game. Pro Football Focus reported very poor play by Red against SF in the match here. There was a similar collapse when Red got injured against Oakland a year or two ago.
Should depth behind Red, that could be a possible replacement as early as late next season, be a draft priority?
I’ve been wondering the same thing of late. The rush defense has been assumed but has actually been pretty bad of late. Given that’s the #1 priority of this defense, I can’t help but wonder if any DT they like will fit the bill, and not just a 3 technique.
One way to solve the problem is to get a pass rush DT through the draft/FA and move Branch to the backup DE spot behind Bryant. A better natural fit for Branch’s abilities, I think.
Agreed.
I think the main issue here is Clemons being an undersized DE on the left side. It’s very easy to run behind a left tackle to that edge. I’m not sure how you combat that other than to find a linebacker who’s great in run support.
yep.
It certanly would be a great feeling knowing that we have an elite WR that immedietly gives us quality depth at WR going into 2013 season. Rice has been active all season but how likely is that to happen again? Baldwin did miss significant time this season and without him we suffered becasue and had no one else to plug into to in spot.
Yes it could take three full season for Hopkins to “get it” like Tate has but we are young and need the depth at that positon badly right now…As much as I wanted to draft TE Ertz I would be just fine with Hopkins if Ertz is already off the board.
If Hopkins has 80% of the drive that RW has, we have to take himin R-1. Rob has got me excited about the TE Escobar if we dont get Ertz. His reasoning makes perfect sense. My choice would be TE Escobar in R-2, load up! With this sceario we need to get Starks as a FA.
I agree! Get Starks or Melton- which you would think both would love to play for our good good D, then take WR in first and TE in second!!!
If you had to hire a new GM to build your team today, who has proven to be better than JS in the past three seasons? A man like that is worth a fortune! Does anyone here no what his salary is and how long his contract is for? If the Seahawks make a deep run in the playoffs, JS will no longer be a secret nationaly. It’s not that I fear he would leave I was just curious…
Are we the second youngest team in the league?
As of 9/1/12 the Seahawks were the 7th youngest team in the league if you believe bloggingthebeast.com
Schinder isn’t going to go anywhere, he already has a dream sceniero here in Seattle. He has a young talented team that he picked himself. Even if another team offered tons of money no one has deeper pockets then Paul Allen so that shouldn’t be an issue
Rob I’d like to know more of what you think of Clemson’s QB Boyd? I haven’t had a chance to finish reading everyone’s comments yet, and those two pieces of film is all I’ve seen of him. But you have to love his placement and lightning release although a bit short armed he still maintained great accuracy. Though you did mention that game doesn’t reflect his performance this whole year. He looks a bit small but I cant help but be impressed by what I saw.
He was superb against LSU, less so in other games (Eg South Carolina). Nice velocity on shorter routes, better passer this year and less runner. Decent mobility but not an x-factor as a running threat or to really extend plays. Deep routes are an issue. He struggles with accuracy here and his arm strength takes a big hit. Overall I think he’s a solid mid-round option.
This guy seems to be a very good fit for the team. In terms of filling out the WR depth for this team what we really need is 1/2 guy, not another slot guy. That way all the bases are covered whenever one of Rice/Tate/Baldwin is hurt (which seems to be all the time).
If Rice goes down, this guy comes in to back him up, Golden’s at the 2 and Baldwin at slot.
If Golden goes down, we got Rice at 1, this guy at 2, and Baldwin at slot.
If Baldwin goes down, we got Rice at 1, this guy at 2, and Tate at the slot (which SHOULD be his natural position probably).
Hopkins seems big, fast, and skilled enough to at least be a reasonable backup for Rice and he/Tate can fight it out for starting on the other side (or maybe Tate can also fight it out with Baldwin). It gives a perfect 4 man rotation of Rice 1, Hopkins 1/2, Tate 2/3, Baldwin 3.
They really do not need another 4.5 receiver. What this team lacks is a 4.3 burner to take the top off the defense and open up the middle of the field for Tate and Baldwin. There are none of those in this draft other than Tavon Austin. Mike Wallace could be an option in free agency but likely costs too much. Austin is small but fast and elusive. After round one he could be a surprise pick. He might survive in the NFL if he came in on 3rd downs only. We have seen PC/JS select a specialist before.
We had this guy named Lockette that had all the speed you could ask for and we didn’t see the need to keep him or get him off SF practice squad, so I would bet that PC/JS don’t see the need for elite speed at WR. There aren’t enough deep routes for us to utilize Lockette or Wallace on right now.
Rob do you have any film on John Simon? JJ Watt was described as exactly that when being projected. John is quiet a bit smaller then both Watt and Jared Allen two guys who are described as high motor instinctive blue collar players, not saying that’s an entirely accurate description but commonly used one.
Here’s some game tape to hold you over –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPAWU1Oc1iw
Thanks Turp!
I would be really excited over these first two picks if it fell like this. Hopkins has shown he deserves to be in the first round discussion and Greene would be incredible value.
A couple questions, Rob.
– You have 4 linebackers going first round, but then only 1 going in the 2nd (Greene). Do you see a void of second-tier LB talent in this draft? Any other WLB prospects you have an eye on? (Also, prospect watch: Zaviar Gooden, WLB, Missouri. A mid-rounder with supposed 4.4 speed and a rumored 4.37. I know you liked Zach Brown last year. Gooden fits that mold. Could be a solid development guy if this team wants a special teams guy who can compete with Smith in the starting role).
– Lastly, in your opinion, what separates Hopkins from Woods. They seem to have a lot in common. Heck, both even got a little overshadowed this year playing behind a dynamic sophomore receiver.
Great stuff with the site, as always Rob. I look forward to keeping up in the draft with you and the rest of this site’s followers. It should be a fun one.
I will take a look at Gooden because I have some Missouri tape saved. I think there is a drop off after round one. I like Jenkins at Florida as a later round option, also Kiko Alonso at Oregon. But in the middle-rounds, it might be a bit of a weaker area. I think the main difference between Woods and Hopkins is consistency catching the ball, crisp routes and physicality. For me Woods is more explosive, but doesn’t have that same clutch aspect. USC ran a lot of packages designed to get Woods the ball, while Clemson had Hopkins running a complete route tree. Plus Hopkins’ production never faltered despite the presence of Sammy Watkins. USC went away from Woods and closer to Marqise Lee. I think Hopkins was just so determined to remain an impact. Woods’ comment after declaring this week was something along the lines of, “If they wanted me to stay (at USC) they should’ve got me the ball more.”
I may get heat for this also, but
Watching old film of Larry Fitzgerald and then going back and watching film of K Allen from Cal the later reminds me of the NFL star. With great work outs (that I for some reason find myself expecting from him, just gut) he could launch himself into the top 15.
Also at the same time you have the Dolphins selecting Patterson at # 12. a few years back they took a player that had a better resume at the time in Terry Glenn Jr at #9. Now I know this is a different staff, but my point is I dont remember maybe non-elite PASS catchers being selected in the top 15 and being on the same team after more then 3 years. Yes Glenn was picked too high even for his projections then. But I would believe Patterson going in the top 20 more if he dominated a solid team catching passed.
Patterson and Ginn are very different players for me. I think CP can be a complete receiver – he has height, speed and the ability to make the spectacular happen. He could be elite. And teams are going to fall for him at the combine. I’m not convinced by Allen – he’s 6-2/6-3 and looks like he runs in the 4.5’s. He lacks balance, he’s not had a spectacular college career. People point to the QB situation – but he initiated that to play with his brother. Alabama wanted to play him at safety. I’m not sold.
yeah, to my eye Ginn always looked very stiff in the middle part of his body even though he was fast. He basically looked like an old Randy Moss but he was 22. Good WRs need that flexibility in their core and Hopkins shows it. I think Allen does, too, to my eye.
Wouldn’t Rogers who is described as “physical” and “ferocious” fit the Seahawk style? Also 6’3″,208,4.48 and a reclamation project to boot..
Also a history of being a complete nightmare off the field. He’s on another level to some of Seattle’s reclamation projects.
Shortly after arrival at Tennessee Rogers apparently got into a fight with a teammate. This put him in an environment where he was not liked by his teammates or coaches. Subsequently, he failed several drug tests and was kicked off the team. There is a lot of maturity issues here but nothing that probably could not be solved by being in a more grown up environment where you are getting paid.
Rogers, has immense talent. He led Tennessee as a sophomore with 67 catches for over 1,000 yards and continued to play like a man among boys at Tennessee Tech. Some question his top end speed to gain separation against NFL cornerbacks. We have guys with his physical skills. I think he will make a good value pick for some team after round 2. I doubt he ends up on the Seahawks.
I could see that
I havnt had a chance to talk about Hopkins and apparently I drank enough coffee that talking is all I’m doing so here is what I saw. Great balance when the ball is in the air, amazing timing and the same goes for field awareness. Field awareness is something you cant teach(in a hurry) and is either learn over time, or the player has a natural feel for it ala Sherman’s way he can see a WR route develop due to his experience at the position. Out of all the WRs in this draft the impact Hopkins would have on the Hawks due to these talents and fit for our system I think would be amazing and immediate.
I really cant tell though how big the guy is. He is listed at 6’1″ and 200 lbs. College teams normally list their guys a few inches taller then what they really are, and if he’s 200 he is the slightest 200 I’ve ever seen. He looks 6’3″ and 195. Just an observation
I love when he catches a touchdown he just trots and tosses the ball to the ref, he does it every time.
Me too. Hopefully he can teach Golden something here.
So, I watched the latest Patterson 3-game tape and I have to say, he is the most dynamic receiver in this draft. I don’t think top-12 is out of the question, at all, yet he could easily fall, too, much like Golden Tate did.
He has his flaws – He doesn’t run crisp routes which hurts in him getting separation. Additional, he doesn’t run the full route tree. He’s occasionally let’s the ball get into his body instead of catching it with his hands and he has the occasional bad drop, but…He is Explosive!
I’m beginning to get on board with drafting Patterson. You talked about him before, and I think you said something similar, but even though he’s somewhat a developmental receiver, we could still get excellent use from him by just getting the ball in his hands a 4-5 times a game. He’s a threat to score with every play he’s involved in.
If the fan base could get behind another Golden Tate-type draft pick, and give this guy a couple years to develop, he could become the most dynamic player in the league.
Oops. Sorry this wasn’t suppose to be a reply to you. Still trying to figure out the format here.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1463392-re-drafting-the-2012-nfl-draft-at-the-end-of-the-regular-season
In the 2012 re-draft, Jon Dove has Seahawks first three picks in the first round: Wilson (3), Wagner (15), and Irvin (20).
I dont believe in re-draft outcomes. You simply cant calculate the impact of the snub factor. Geno Atkins was well known talent entering the 2010 draft. The reason he slipped wasn’t talent, and though he is talented, so are a ton of first round wash outs who well wash out because they don’t have the mental drive/side required. Now an exception can be a player like Wilson as I believe he has the mental make up to succeed he was brought along perfectly the same way Matt Ryan was and Big Ben before him. Protect them with the running game and great D and when they are acclimated they will show it and be ready. would Wilson have looked as good on the Browns, I think we would have seen moments but the Browns from coaching staff on down through the team are not to be compared with the Hawks currently.
This is off the topic a bit(ok a lot, sorry) but Griffin gets a lot of love and there is talk about the Rams trade with the ‘Skins and whos in the Playoffs and who isn’t out of those two teams. I’d bet a pay check that if the Rams were in the NFC east they would be the division winners and not the ‘Skins. Rams are going to be a team to be reckoned with the next 10 years, given unforeseen events (QB is lost)
I had Cousins as my # QB going into the Draft and would still project or take him at the # 4 spot (Clevelands original spot). i hated the trade for a back who recently had knee surgery and was on a college team with a dominant O line, its 20/20 hind sight like always. And its not that I think Cousins will be better then Wilson by any means I just think the value was there or at there latter pick for him, and as I said he was my # 3 QB.
Nah, of course you can’t take them seriously as the way a draft would occur but they are an interesting exercise and in this case a compliment to the Seahawks front office.
It is interesting the number of running backs that got moved up into the first round on the redraft. It doesn’t seem to be a priority in the drafts anymore, but the successful ones still have a huge impact on the team. Also looks like drafting a good linebacker has more impact than a good linemen. That is born out by our experience with Wagner.
Finally, the receiver value is clearly tied to whether the QB can get the ball to him or not. I was advocating our picking Floyd last year, and he totally disappeared playing opposite Fitzgerald in the Arizona offense.
Those are some interesting trends, I’ve always felt you could get top level talent at the end of the first round for LB, OG, RT, and now even RB. But with Seattle finding starters in the 7th round, I think every pick is like money in the bank for this FO. It would be nice if they could accumulate so much talent that every year their FAs that fly the coup will add up to some additional compensatory picks.
Hey Rob,
I totally agree with you about the need for a 3-tech. But Jaye Howard was picked for a reason. I bring this up because it was not that long ago when everyone thought that a CB was our greatest need. “The Seahawks have two 5th rounders and and an UDFA at corner. They need to draft a CB here.”
Blah, blah. Everyone gets the point. However, remember Jaye Howard?
Pete Carroll did not draft Jaye Howard for no reason. Jaye Howard was drafted for a reason, and I think it is time to take a look back at why he was picked. Kam went through the same thing. He sat for a year and now he is one of the most feared safeties in the NFL.
Before we start talking about drafting a 3tech DL, I think we should step back and take another look at Howard.
I think it’s a fair point KD but I’d be more tempted to buy into Howard if he wasn’t inactive every week. If they were bringing him on slowly like Kam, I could see it. But Howard is never anywhere near the field. Which makes me wonder about his future here. Even when Jason Jones got injured, he hasn’t been activated. They’ve used Greg Scruggs more instead.
Exactly, their use of Scruggs is not a good sign for Howard. He’s nothing more than depth for now.
You got to remember, he was drafted in the fourth round. that is by far JS’s worst round. not a single pick that he has made in the fourth round has panned out as far as I know of. While I want to see Howard succeed, I just cannot see it right now.
K.J. Wright and Robert Turnbin were both 4th rounders…
Too many DTs we’re passing up to go for WR. A 3-4 type DE that can rush the passer would fit this offense. That’s basically what we’re looking for over a pure three tech. A pocket collapser with run stuffing/pass rushing ability. If Jessie Williams or Sylvester Williams are available, I’d prefer to grab them. Interior pass rushing DT is far more valuable than a receiver in a run first offense like ours.
I’m not sure a 3-4 DE fits, we need a pure three technique. I personally think Williams is a one tech or an orthodox five. Williams I like but there are reasons not to go in that direction. I disagree that DT is more valuable, I never get things like that. WR is a key position just like QB, LT, CB and DE for me. And I think they’ll add a DT in free agency.
It’s not that we are passing up DTs, it is that our draft position means the other teams will cherry pick the best DTs and DEs. By my count at least 10 of them will be off the board when we will pick, vs 1 wide receiver, or 2 linebackers if we want to go in that direction.
It just makes sense to have our choice of wide receivers at the end of the first round. It also bolsters a weak drafting area for our team. We hardly ever pick wide receivers in the top rounds, and yet the one time we did pick Tate, two years later we are depending on him more than anyone. We need to keep drafting weapons for Wilson, sure handed receivers that can run routes and get open.
As far as drafting for the defensive line, we just have to hope that PC’s scouting will give us a diamond in the rough.
Quality DTs are expensive. They want to draft and go young. They already have money spent on Mebane and Red. They didn’t sign Jason Jones to a long-term contract or extend Branch. What makes you think they will look for a DT in free agency given the team philsophy and the recent moves on the defensive lime?
With Sidney Rice, Baldwin, and Golden playing well, I think WR will be a lower priority position. We also have a QB that spreads the ball. Wilson has made a guy like McCoy look like a stud a few games in.
So we have to look at what are our weaknesses. Run defense is giving up 4.5 yards a carry. There is no pass rushing pressure on 1st and 2nd down from our defensive line. So we want a guy that doesn’t give up much in run defense and improves on pressure up the middle. This is exactly what guys like Justin Smith and JJ Watt do: both of them 3-4 DEs.
With our Leo alignment, a high quality 3-4 DE would be ideal. A 3-4 DE is basically a high quality three tech. This is a guy that can stay in on passing downs providing above average run defense with some pass rushing when we send in Irvin and Clemons as the ends.
So a big, strong 320 lb. upgrade to Alan Branch, something akin to a 3-4 DE/3 tech would be ideal. I’ll be very suprised if Schneider and Pete don’t prioritize the position in the draft. I think they want a young guy they can develop and is cheap given the amount of money tied up in the defensive line.
I think the way things set up right now with Branch, Jones, and Clinton McDonald all scheduled to hit free agency, we have a gaping hole on the defensive line. I think Schneider and Carroll are very aware of it. They have been setting up to draft for that position, but have had other players they wanted prior to this year. I expect a DT to be drafted in the first two rounds and be a higher priority than WR.
I’m not convinced to be honest. The 3-4 DE role is fundamentally different to the role of an interior pass rusher. The Seahawks need someone in the 300lbs range capable of playing strong against the run, but can also penetrate inside against the guard/center and collapse the pocket. The 3-4 DE’s are generally smaller than that and aren’t relied upon to necessarily rush the passer. J.J. Watt is a freak. Justin Smith is a freak. It’s very rare to find those types of players. As an example, the more Alabama tape I watch, the more I think Jesse Williams was born to play the 3-4 DE position. He’s a very different player to Watt or Smith. Put him at the three-tech for Seattle and the run defense will remain consistent to when Branch was in there, but I’m not convinced you’ll see much more interior pressure.
With Greg Jennings, Mike Wakkace, and Dwayne Bowe likely available in free agency would we not go hard after one (Bowe!)..? And would that not impact Rd 1-2 picks… I assume JS goes hard after Melton and Starks first, then one of those three, ahead of the draft so once again we are looking for BPA.
Free agent receivers cost a lot of money.
but the question is, are they worth it? You get the experience without having to go through the development stage, and you don’t get the wear and tear that an interior d line veteran has on his body.
Would Mike Wallace be worth the price tag? Rather than trying to draft the next Steve Wallace?
woops. how did I manage to call him Steve right after I got his name right? LOL.
After getting into the ‘log haul’ vision of Seattle, I think a FA DT is a good idea, but NOT a FA WR.
We have a youg team with a lot of ‘rookie set contracts’. If we want to keep the LEGION OF BOOM together down the line, then big money FA should be rare and extremely vital! Starks or Melton would fit that label and need to me. A NEW WR that would GROW UP with Russell Wilson is a necessary choice! Imagine if Hopkins is a big worker like RW, Then we will have a duo their for years that isn’t over paid, and yet takes us to the SuperBowl yearly!!! Let’s stack this offense w weapons, beef up the D pass rush, and go win MULTIPLE SuperBowls!!!
No way on FA wide receivers. They are designed around a system and if the system you run is different, you get Deion Branch 2.0. Not to mention Wallace (and Bowe) are malcontents. We invested heavily in the position with Sidney and it’s finally paying dividends this year. I agree with the sentiment that we need to bring in young guys to grow with Russell.
Besides, aside from TO & Moss (generational talent), when is the last time a WR changed teams and had as much success as with their prior team?
Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall…
I think signing older, expensive defensive players is a recipe for disaster. I would get behind Melton because he’s 26. But I’m fairly predisposed against signing 29 year old defensive lineman like Starks. They just don’t age as well as wide receivers. If you look at the top sack seasons in the NFL, something like 60% of them are under the age of 27, and 15% or so are over the age of 30. You still get an age decline with WRs, but it’s less sharp.
I’m not convinced a WR is worth a #1 pick this year for the Hawks. Their need on the DT is much greater than a 3r or 4th WR. I think the wide receiving corps of Rice, Tate, and Baldwin is better than many teams, and they getting better. They are young and will grow with RW. I also think wide receivers are massively over valued, and almost entirely dependent on qb, OL, and offensive scheme. I rate them just above RB in terms of things you should spend a first round pick on unless there’s some ridiculous talent. I don’t really see it this year, except for maybe Hopkins. But I realize others disagree. Myself, I wouldn’t go WR in round 1 this year, and I wouldn’t go WR in FA unless someone comes along cheap.
I think there are WRs to be available in the 4,5,and 5th round that will be very good additions to this team.
It really depends on the contract. Starks isn’t going to be entertaining mega-money offers. A solid 1-2 year deal will not break the bank like a free agent receiver. And it really isn’t just a #3 or #4 receiver. It’s about adding another playmaker who can be in on any play call. You don’t have a strict depth chart at WR. You can put 3/4 guys in on most calls. Bare in mind the injury history behind our three guys and how weak the depth is behind them, this is a much greater need than suggested here. And I think we need to move on from this ‘WR’s are over valued’ concept. No position is over valued that puts touchdowns on the board. We’re not running the Holmgren offense anymore and we need playmakers.
We cannot have a fear factor over receivers. If a player is good enough and it fits a need, it doesn’t matter what position he plays.
It’s not a fear factor over receivers. It’s a recognition of value.
or a placement of value
I think it’s a case of conventional wisdom… and we learnt to ignore most of that this season.
Touche Michael. Though Brandon Marshall had a connection with Cutler prior to going to the Bears, you made a great point. How did I space on Welker?
To add what I was saying earliler, I think you have to take into account the goal of the team. On offense we run the ball with an efficient passing game. On defense we want to stop the run and make teams one dimensional. So even if we pick up a big man that is focused on run stuffing at DT, we mainly want an upgrade to Alan Branch. Seems like a couple of guys on that mock drafts are upgrades to Branch and will be available. Grabbing a wide receiver with high quality DT talent available doesn’t sit well with me unless we address the position in free agency. I would think they want a young, strong, high motor guy to pair with Mebane and Red.
We’ll find out when the season ends and Pete gives his post-season press conference. He’ll drop hints as to the draft direction at during that press conference.
Lots of people are banging the drum for D-Line in rd 1. It makes sense since it is one of our oldest and most expensive position groups. Looking back at the Packers draft history when he was there (2002-2009) here are the rounds where they drafted WRs.
2002 – Rd 1 (20)
2003 – Rd 7 & Rd 7
2004 – N/A
2005 – Rd 2 (58) & Rd 6
2006 – Rd 2 (52) [Greg Jennings] & Rd 4
2007 – Rd 3 (78) [James Jones] & Rd 5
2008 – Rd 2 (36) [Jordy Nelson] & Rd 7
2009 – N/A
There is a strong trend of drafting receivers in rounds two and three. (By the way, Randall Cobb was drafted in the second round in 2011.) Especially with the depth in the WR class this year I can see the Hawks waiting for their second round pick to draft a WR or even trading back from their 1st round pick to the early part of the second round. Seems like 2nd and 3rd round receivers could be part of Schneider’s philosophy.
Just connected the dots on Golden Tate as well!
“On April 23, 2010, Tate was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the second round (60th overall) of the 2010 NFL Draft.”
I just don’t think this can be ignored as coincidence. Clearly, Ted Thompson and John Schneider love the value you can get in the 2nd round with receivers.
I don’t think it’s necessarily part of a philosophy. The Packers have generally had a good staple of receivers. It’s about value more than anything. For example, if WR is the clear BPA in round one they aren’t likely going to pass to wait until round two.
The difference is that in the first round we will have our choice of receivers. By the time we pick in the second round there will be 5-8 receivers chosen ahead of us.
Likewise if we went defensive line there will be 10 chosen before our first round pick. Most of those teams will choose some other position in the second, so only half that many will go ahead of us in the second round. I have an earlier post that talks more about this.
I see the rationale. Teams want to get in on a position group before the run, rather than after a run. I just question if they value the WR position as a first round position. Over half of the Packers’ first round picks were linemen.
I’m a huge advocate of loading up on WRs in this draft. Just pointing that they may wait till the 2nd or 3rd to invest.
It just depends on what you want. I’m of the opinion that our identity is changing from a running team to a passing team with a brutal running back mixed in to keep the other team honest. We have won our games on Russell Wilson’s arm, and that’s despite limitations in pass blocking and small wide receiver separation. So to me it makes sense to give him more receivers. The small number of passes (relative to other passing teams) in each game makes the receiver even more important as we can’t afford a drop.
Just looking at the board, there aren’t that many DTs leaving after our first round pick so I don’t think it will make any difference if we choose one in the second.
Be careful about want our identity to change from a running team to a passing team. The Jets and Sanchez were very successful as a running team in his early years. As a passing team… not so much.
man, I don’t want our team identity to change, and I don’t think Pete Carroll does either. I like the fact that on Sunday the game plan is to beat the crud out of the Redskins, and not having to rely on timing, weather, and offensive rhythm like we did in the Holmgren era. It’s a lot more reliable and sustainable. The passing success we’ve had largely is based on the running game and physical nature of this team, and I’d sure hate to move away from that at this point.
Agree 100%
We have already changed to a passing team. The only reason we still talk about the running game is because we have Marshawn Lynch breaking tackles.
@AlaskaHawk
No chance are the hawks “a passing team”. Look at these games:
Vs. StLouis 30 rushing attempts – 19 passing attempts
Vs. SanFran 39 rushing attempts – 22 passing attempts
RW is playing off of the running game really well but the Hawks are not a passing team and I hope they don’t transition into one in the near future. Ground and pound and play great D
You bring up some good points!!! I was looking at TDs, 7 passing to 4 rushing in the last four games. I see where you are coming from.
Love the back and forth. Tom Cable’s motto is “Run to win, pass to score.” I hope we stick to it for a long time to come
It’s funny that they take so many O’lineman…cause their O’line isn’t that good…
I agree that like the Saints and Green Bay would should SATURATE the WR position. That is WHY those teams yearly kick butt! Their depth at WR is awesome!
I agree, but they get those guys by casting a wide net in the mid and late rounds. Ted Thompson’s general strategy (generally speaking) is to draft big guys early and skill positions later. I think it’s basically a good strategy and it’s also the school of thought in which Schneider cut his teeth. Who knows if it has any predictive value going forward, however.
Pete Carroll has final say in Seattle, let’s not forget that. Ted Thompson didn’t draft many guys like Bruce Irvin or Earl Thomas.
But Schneider has significant input, of course. The emphasis on O line and defense in the early picks is pretty closely aligned with what Thompson did. Like I said, I don’t know what kind of predictive value it has, but the post I was responding to cited GB’s and Saints wide receivers. Thompson/GB picked all of their WR’s in R 2 and beyond. For NO, it’s even more pornounced. Colston was a 7th round pick. Jimmy Graham 3rd round. Lance Moore was undrafted.
The QBs are making those guys what they are. They get their WRs later on and emphasize defense and lineman early, generally speaking.
Both of those teams also run very different offenses to Seattle – prolific passing offenses that generally ignore the run. In Seattle, it’s a much more run-centric system that requires ‘less but more’ from the receivers, raising the value of the position IMO. Which is why the Seahawks went out and spent big money on Sidney Rice – something Thompson never really did in Green Bay (spend on a big name free agent WR). I don’t mind looking into things Thompson has done, but I do think Schneider has his own way of doing things (Thompson passed on Lynch, Schneider wanted him badly) and at the end of the day Carroll has final say. If PC thinks this teams best bet is to go WR in round one… then any history in Green Bay regarding a non-directly-related GM won’t matter much.
I don’t think Schneider and Carroll draft BPA. I don’t think they ever will. At least not based on a consensus from mock drafts. They will draft based on player skill set. I think as far as WRs go, the only thing they are lacking that Carroll wants is a tall, jump ball receiver. So those are the receivers I would be looking at. It’s obvious from their free agent signings and drafs that they are still looking for that tall, big body receiver.
Sounds so trite but get your young franchise QB more weapons (ie receiver in 1st) and the rely on the special skill of our Schneider/PC duo (ie finding defensive gems in the later rounds – 3 tech after rd.1)
that’s actually a pretty common tactic- spend money in the area your coaching staff front office is weak, and let the strength of the staff coach up/find the low cost talent.
Hey Rob- Love the site… How about trading Matt Flynn to Kansas City for their 2nd round pick with our extra 5th or 6th to sweeten the deal. Andy Reid is looking like he will be the coach, and he is good with QB’s! Flynn was behind Rodgers at GB, and at least has some REAL game experience.
If we had to add another player, so be it, but then KC doesn’t have to waste the value of their first pick on an undervalued rookie QB!! They would get a big benefit from doing this…
Then we could use our 1st round on Coleman/Hopkins/Ertz, and then have the first pick of round 2 for ANOTHER OFFENSIVE WEAPON! Please explain why Flynn isn’t worth a 2nd round pick given this QB draft class, and the FACT that he holds the GB RECORD FOR TD’s and YARDS in a game!!!
I know it was game 17, and GB has great WR’s, but dude!!! He has DONE IT IN THE NFL!
Don’t you think Reid at KC would value him? Or even the Jags, Oak, Philly, Cleveland, Bills, Jets, Tennessee, or Cowboys for a sweetened second round???? He has experience being trained with one of the best Aaron Rodgers, and has diversity now through being with us at Seattle…Isn’t that valuable????
Thx ROB!
I also mean that we include OUR second round pick (hopefully the 32nd pick) in the deal. So Flynn and our 5th or 6th to swap 2nd round picks fro 24-32 to the KC’s 1st in the second! Then we would have great flexibility there!!
KC would be better off keeping the pick IMO. They will undoubtedly take a QB with the #1 pick. Why not have a better quarterback (eg Barkley) and the #34 pick in the draft? Last year it only cost Tampa Bay a 5th rounder to move back into the back end of the first too.
Do you think Any off the QB needy teams would do a 2nd round swap for Flynn?
Jags? Oakland? Philly? Bills? JETS??
I think it’s very unlikely. I think we’ll be lucky to get a mid-round pick.
Trade Flynn for a 4th rounder, then trade that for Nick Toon in NO… 4th for 4th
We turn Flynn into a familiar weapon for Wilson!!!! Bonus
Rob- One well known draft site has Mike Glennon QB for North Carolina State being chosen by Buffalo in the first round. Seems like the writer was smoking something that day. I guess at 6’6″ Mike is the size they like, and he has a high QB rating in the 130s. But with all the other choices for QB, I don’t think he will be taken until the third round. What do you think?
I cannot agree with a grade that early. I think some guys out there are trying to hard, putting Glennon in that range. Tajh Boyd in round one also seems very knee jerk – that has cropped up this week. For me we’re still looking at three first round QB’s max – Barkley, Smith and Wilson.
So I know that we are really looking forward to Melton or Starks and should go hard on either one or both. but what about a younger, cheaper option that would also weaken an opponent. I am talking about Ricky Jean-Francouis. He is younger (at 26), would be cheaper because he hasn’t been a starter yet, and according to his college scouting reports and nfl stats, seems to be able to get to the ball. In college, he was seen as someone that needed maturing but now all I hear from 9er fans is how good he is and how he can play all positions. I think he is miscast in the 3-4 as he seems to fit a 4-3 under scheme better which is what was also in his scouting reports said. It would allow us to resign Kam easier and should also add another pass rusher who is about to hit his prime. what are your thoughts Rob?
I’ve got to be honest, I haven’t been that impressed with him. But then I haven’t zoned in on his play either so it might be an unfair assessment. I think Sedrick Ellis is also a free-agent – an ex-Carroll guy. Wonder if he’ll be one of the PC guys he actually entertains bringing to Seattle?
As long as we get a guy that can be here for 5+ years and is relatively cheap then I am thrilled. I don’t think we can afford a second Mebane contract plus Red’s pay plus the secondaries raise. That would be too much for our defense imo. Plus we will need to pay Okung and are still dealing with Miller and Rice’s contract. We have, or will have a lot of highly paid players here.
Red is injury prone and not playing well.
Very likely gone by 2014.
I disagree with this Jeff. Red Bryant is actually an extremely underrated piece of this defense if you study the 4-3 under concept. It doesn’t work without him. It’s why he’s currently the best paid defensive player on the team. And he’s not missed a game for two seasons.
I like trying to find late round sleeper picks for the Seahawks. In that regard I need some help evaluating what may be a sleeper OLB, Keith Pough, from Howard University. I know LB speed is a real deal breaker for PC/JS, however speed can also be generated by great instincts and a great jump off the snap. This OLB first got my attention with an astounding statistic, -83 tackles for loss- during his college career. That’s got to be close to a 2-TFL average per game. “”Pough became the FCS all-time record holder in tackles for a loss with 83 during his college career.””
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/profile.php?pyid=114719
Lists his straight line speed as 4.67 low, 4.79 avg. & 4.93 high. However, when I watch the U-Tube highlight tapes (I know, they are just highlight tapes), it looks like his game speed is way above average compared to many other OLB’s I’ve watched. Perhaps he gets really good jumps on plays due to his football IQ/instincts? To me, he looks like he’s all over the field and is very relentless in getting into plays all over the place. Where I need help is I don’t know how to evaluate these small school players. Is this guy 83-TFL’s good or is it just the lower level of competition that makes him look like a man among boys? Is it possible his game speed translates to the NFL? Is this guy worth a late round pick? Help?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU8XCNIpDGE Highlights just through 2011, his junior year.
http://college2pro.com/showPlayer.php?id=32&page=bioList
“”Pough is a football player but also a student of the game. As the son of a high school coach, he literally grew up around the sport. Coaches say he spends more time dissecting film than anyone besides the quarterbacks””. (separation through preparation like RW?)
“”I don’t care where I go. I don’t care if I get drafted or in free agency, I don’t care what team I play for — I’ll go play butt naked in Green Bay in February, you know, just for an opportunity,” he said. “And that’s really what it comes down to. I’m so passionate about the game, it doesn’t matter who I play for. I’m just gonna be the best linebacker, teammate, special teamer on that team.””. (a competitive attitude, passionate?)
Optimumscouting.com has him as their #9 OLB overall with a 5-th round projection in the draft. A couple other sites have him projected in rounds 5-7 while most leave him off their lists entirely or bunch him in the 250+ UDFA overall area.
http://www.optimumscouting.com/rankings/static/olb-rankings.html
“”11/25/12- Keith Pough, LB, MEAC Defensive Player of the year, Pough became the FCS all-time record holder in tackles for loss with 83 to cap his college career.””
“”12/08/12 – Howard University’s Keith Pough has been selected to play in the 88th Annual East West Shrine Bowl, scheduled for January 19, 2013 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fl. A 6-3, 235-pound senior from Orangeburg, SC, closed out a brilliant career for the Bison this past season. Over his four-year career at Howard, Pough established himself as one of the all-time greats.””
Maybe the Shrine game will provide some answers?