Ndamukong Suh: Seattle’s full-on aggressive off-season

According to this article by Omar Kelly, the Seahawks can look forward to $25m in free cap space this off-season. It’s certainly enough to do whatever they want with their current in-house crew. Russell Wilson will get a new deal. They can afford to give Marshawn Lynch a pay-rise. They can talk contract with Bobby Wagner and J.R. Sweezy. The cost to keep Byron Maxwell probably outweighs his actual value — but you can’t expect to keep everyone.

The idea that on top of all of this you can add a genuine superstar like Ndamukong Suh is, frankly, a little dirty. Yet according to Davis Hsu in the Tweets above — it’s not the pipe dream we perhaps first imagined. You’d have to make cuts elsewhere. But Hsu has calculated you would be able to keep Brandon Mebane in 2015. Presumably it would mean cutting ties with Zach Miller and Tony McDaniel to raise an additional $6m. That seems like an acceptable trade-off.

The problems emerge in 2016 and beyond. You’d be under intense pressure to draft well to fill holes. You’d be tight against the cap for a few seasons. Your depth could take a hit. That’s why Hsu offered this note of caution:

But this is Seattle’s Championship window. And it’s not often you get the chance to consider adding a player of Suh’s quality.

This would be the ultimate power move — and also the kind of swing-for-the-fences job this front office had been willing to undertake. Acquiring Sidney Rice in 2011 was seen as a coup at the time. Ditto Zach Miller. The blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin left the league gasping for air. When there’s a big move to be made, the Carroll/Schneider regime have often been bold enough to make it.

As Brian Nemhauser opines in this well put together piece:

“It is extremely rare to have a chance to add a franchise level defensive tackle. Suh is the most unique talent on the market, and happens to address an area the Seahawks have not done a good job of filling via the draft. Spending the money here would make the draft highly focused on offensive options, and that might be the right move anyway.”

Nemhauser is right. The Seahawks haven’t done a good job adding defensive line talent in the draft. They relied on Chris Clemons (via trade) to provide a pass rush for three years. They inherited Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were free agent acquisitions. They moved Bruce Irvin to linebacker. The only moderate success story so far is Jordan Hill — and he provided several weeks of dynamic interior rush before a season-ending injury.

Instead of worrying about life after Mebane or the lack of inside pressure (never more obvious than in the Super Bowl) — here’s your opportunity to land one of this generations top defensive talents. A legitimate star to rival the Gerald McCoy’s and J.J. Watt’s out there. A chance to put a disruptive, stone-walling force of nature alongside Avril, Bennett, Irvin, Mebane and Hill. An opportunity to make your linebackers and secondary even more threatening.

The Seahawks, according to Hsu, can offer the kind of $15m average-per-year salary Suh would command — and still keep most of their existing team together.

And better yet — if you believe Jason Cole’s recent report — the guy actually wants to play in Seattle. “This is his number one choice — because Suh is from the northwest area, grew up in Portland, he’d like to be there.”

Sure, there’s every chance they’d be outbid and this will amount to nothing more than a talking point designed to help us all move on from that interception. But look at the other teams with more cap room than Seattle according to Kelly: Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tennessee, the New York Jets. A who’s who of the NFL’s bottom-dwellers. Suh can be rich and a possible Champion or even richer and go through the motions until the end of his career. After all, he’s 28-years-old now. This contract could be his last. Will four or five years in Cleveland or Oakland provide the ideal final course to a brilliant starter and main?

How about a few years in your native Pacific North West fighting for Championships and maybe even winning a couple?

The move is so tantalizingly attractive you almost have to save yourself from getting sucked in. Suh in Seattle. Imagine it. With Sherman, Thomas, Bennett, Chancellor, Wagner and Avril (his former team mate in Detroit). A collection of talent for the ages. And yet we’re still a month away from the start of free agency. Lions ownership recently expressed some confidence they’d be able to re-sign Suh, with team President Tom Lewand stating: “I think there’s a very, very good chance that we can get something done with him in the next few weeks.” That’s unusually chipper considering everyone expects he’ll be leaving Detroit (they have $15m in cap space to play with).

So what would it mean if they did make a blockbuster move like this? Ultimately, get ready for an almost exclusively offensive-based draft.

They’d have to find a way to replace Byron Maxwell. Even if that was an internal move (Tharold Simon for example) they’d need to add a corner at some stage. There’s nothing stopping them adding a prospect like LSU’s Jalen Collins in round one — a scary proposition for anyone facing the Seahawks defense in 2015. But at some point they’d have to turn it over to the offense. Adding another ‘Seahawks-style’ corner in the mid-to-late rounds is likely, especially if you’re fielding a front four that includes a force like Suh.

That would enable them to focus on drafting for the offense. Receiver would be an early priority. They’d have to look at replacements for Zach Miller at tight end and James Carpenter (potentially) at guard. But this wouldn’t be a problem. The bulk of your offensive line would remain intact. You’d still have Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. You’d still have the receivers and tight ends you had for the bulk of the 2014 season. You’d simply be adding more talent to that group.

Pick your poison. Want to add the high-pointing skills of Jaelen Strong at #31? Want to bring in a hulking seam-busting move-TE like Devin Funchess? Want to go after rare athleticism (Sammie Coates), speed (Phillip Dorsett), chunk plays (Devin Smith) or all-round solidity (Maxx Williams)? You can bring in Ty Sambrailo to play guard if you like. You have all of those options. You are only adding talent. And all the while you look across at that defense…

For all the discussion we’ve had about adding a veteran presence to the receiver’s meeting room and bolstering the weapons for Russell Wilson — nobody would match the impact of Suh in Seattle. Landing him still seems so unlikely and yet so thoroughly attractive. And as Nemhauser points out in his piece on the subject — an offensive-focused draft wouldn’t be such a bad thing anyway.


  1. David

    JS was on 710 stating he think the hawks have 10 picks not 11 depending on how the comp picks go.

    also mentioned the spurs and how they lost in the finals a couple years ago and then came back the next year and tore up the league to win another championship.

    name dropped missouri university again when talking about percy trade-Smoke screen?
    referenced Russell Wilson wanting to do what is best for Organization. hinted at “outside the box approach” to contract says about Wilson “he gets it, he knows”-possible discount coming?

    Lynch- if he plays next year wont be on current salary per Schneider.

    • MJ

      The continual Mizzou name drops…basically we won’t be drafting DGB. Total smokescreen.

    • Meat

      I don’t think an out Of Box approach is a hometown discount. To me that may mean more guaranteed money instead to lower the number.

  2. MJ

    After Schneider’s interview, specifically talking about RW…

    I think Suh is going to happen. They might not be the highest bidder, but they will be close enough. Suh has a chance to get his money, and quite literally take “one of the best defenses all time” and transform them into “the best defense of all time.”

    This isn’t just about Suh coming to a great team. This is about Suh joining a defense that is historic. Don’t underestimate the appeal of this, combined with the notion that it won’t take a “major discount” to land him.

    As Rob eloquently points out, you go Offense heavy in the draft. Draft 2 WRs, 2 OL, 1 TE and take some gambles in the late rounds on the usual suspects on the defensive side of the ball (long CB, athletic DL, etc). Man…the potential offseason has me forgetting about the SB rather quickly.

    • JeffC

      If Lynch retires, then I could see seattle making a home run move like this. You don’t worry about losing Maxwell as much, you probably release Miller and McDaniel, and you keep your defense top 5 minimum for the next four years. Then you draft whichever of Gurley, Gordon, Coleman that falls to you, and go from there.

      If Lynch comes back, I don’t see how they can do it.

      I’m not so sure the effort to keep most of our own guys and let a few go is going to work to get us back to an sb without at least the draft becoming a home run this year since we’ve had a relatively bare cupboard for 2 years. They need an impact draft and need one badly. I think one of Wagner or Irvin goes when their deal is up and KPL becomes a starter.

    • Arias

      I don’t know. I worry that it might mess with team chemistry. You don’t think Bennett might be a little bit pissed that he’s been the force on the DL up till now and accepted a discount to play for 8 mil a year while Suh is getting paid by the team 15 mil a year? Plus Suh is a potential difficult personality, mostly because he’s so standoffish and I don’t think that sort of vibe would play well in this locker room. He’s already a known dirty player and the last thing I want to see is refs start to tag this team as dirty. As it stands I think refs understand the team tries to play clean (outside of unsportsmanship flags from time to time from rookie hotheads like Simon or EOL Super Bowl drama) because if you think calls go against this team now, one with Suh on the line will get no benefit of the doubt.

      I think it has too much potential to blow up just like the Harvin thing did and generate hard feelings all around.

      • Kyle

        I hope the front office doesn’t think like you. If you haven’t seen, refs and the rest of the league think we are dirty already, who cares if we add another player like that. Suh is game changing by himself. He will allow bennett and avril to go off. I mean who do you choose to double, what type of blocking scheme stops this beast line? This would up our play of our already elite DB’s because there would be no time to throw ever. This would be the best thing for the team. It will be hard to sign a guy like him, but our front office can do it. It game changing. Our superbowl window is now, we can be that dynasty. This is where you go for it.

        • Arias

          The guy is one meltdown away from multiple game suspensions. I don’t think the refs think we’re dirty at all. We don’t have guys like Suh, Raiola, Finnegan, Incognito trying to intentionally take other guys out by dirty play after the whistle. I could care less what other fans think.

          Yes he could be a game changing force, but if it engenders envy over the size of the contract given him like the commitment to Percy it wouldn’t be the kind of game changing force that would be all good. I trust that JS will exercise due caution.

          • Volume 12

            Kyle has a good point. The refs already see Seattle as a dirty team IMO. Yes, some of the flags are bone-headed, self inflicted, but when you see that Seattle is the most penalized team in the league and their opponents are the least, that discrepancy is eye-brow raising and makes one wonder.

            • john_s

              I don’t know if the refs sees the team as dirty.

              First thing the Seahawks needs to do is clean up the pre-snap penalties and see where the numbers lie after that.

              Penalties draw more penalties and if the Seahawks are committing self inflicted wounds with pre snap penalties it just makes it easier for the refs to call more penalties on the Seahawks.

  3. Jon

    what is wilsons discount going to look like? 10m/y for 30 years fully guaranteed. cap hit is 10m/y until he retires and then they cash him out? haha wouldn’t that be something. 🙂

  4. CHawk Talker Eric

    Realistically, there are 3 teams in the hunt for Suh – DET, OAK and SEA. Either DET finds a way to keep him or (more likely) he heads west. For everything he’s said and done, I just don’t see him finishing his career with an eastern/midwest basement dwelling team like JAX, TEN, NYJ, CLE, etc. for a fistful more dollars. This guy plays with so much fire and passion that the realistic possibility of winning a championship must factor heavily in his decision.

    No team should pay him more than $18mm/yr (regardless of how it’s structured). Yet he’s worth every penny at $16mm/yr. Any GM/HC who is willing to pay him more should (and probably would) lose his job. There are some defensive minded HCs out there who would love to have him – Bowles, Bradley, Quinn, Del Rio – but it would be pretty shortsighted for any of them to sink SB-winning QB money into any player other than a SB-winning QB.

    It almost seems as if this is up to the SEA FO.

    • Bruce M.

      They could tag him, right? That would pretty much stop everything in its tracks?

      If there is any concept antithetical to the Schneider/Carroll philosophy of team management, though, it is this notion of “windows”. They don’t believe in them. They won’t do anything that substantially risks their abilities to compete yearly for championships in the future.

      • no frickin clue

        I think I read somewhere that the tag would be north of $20m in 2015, based on his position. Not likely.

        • Attyla the Hawk

          The tag for him is roughly 26m in 2015.

          The tag has two possible outcomes (the higher of the two applies)

          1. Average of the top 5 contracts at the position
          2. 120% of your final cap figure.

          Suh’s cap figure for 2014 was over $21m. With prorated bonus, the 120% calculation is in excess of $26m.

          Detroit could still tag him, and force teams to trade for him (conceding 2 first round picks). But that’d be a game of chicken at that point. Teams that do trade for him, are then on the hook for the tender. But any trade would obviously be contingent on Suh actually signing a deal for much less.

          • Travis Williams

            The Lions can’t tag him. They (foolishly) chose to pro-rate something like $10 mil worth of his bonuses into the team option year of 2015, before chosing to void it. They’re on the hook for that 10 mil in cap dollars no matter where Suh plays next year. If they tag him and he signs the tender, he’ll count for $36 million of their 2015 cap. They’d have zero leverage to negotiate anything lower, but would NEED to do so to get under the cap. He’d have them by the balls and be able to get 22+ a year just to lower his 2015 cap hit.

            I mean the Lions technically could tag him, but it would be phenomenally stupid. Then again, they got into this spot by being phenomenally stupid so, maybe they do it.

  5. Drew

    Get Avril going on the recruiting machine now!!! Personally, I think if we can draft Gurley/Gordon (preferrably Gurley) in rd 1 then I think we can get by without Lynch if it means we can add Suh to the defense.

    That would give us another $7m to help towards depth.

    • David Ess

      Gurley would most likely need a year to heal up after injury. ill take gordon though.

      • Drew

        I’d be fine with Turbo and C-Mike for one year. Gurley would be worth it, but Gurley AND Suh, absolutely!

        • regnaD kciN

          Not if we have hopes of getting to SB50. This is the middle of our window of opportunity — we need BeastMode or a top-quality replacement who can play next season. A “holding year” of Turbin and Michael at this crucial juncture just won’t cut it.

    • CHawk Talker Eric

      Sounds like Suh doesn’t need recruiting. If anything, Avril can give the FO a teammate’s insight on Suh.

      Drafting Gurley would be epic, but regardless I think Lynch will return.

      Move on from Miller ($3mm) + Carp ($2.4mm) on O, and Mebane ($5mm) on D. Better to keep McDaniel – same age lower cap hit ($3.5mm) – not to mention Mebane is coming off injury and becomes redundant with Suh as they both play the right side.

  6. Dawgma

    I will not let myself hope for this until it happens. Nope. It’s impossible until it’s done.

  7. CA

    Although he would be a perfect piece and the thought of this move makes me sploosh(for you Archer fans) I can’t help but feel like our money is better spent elsewhere, particularly targeting a proven commodity for the outside of the offense. They have the draft budget to hit on a DL pick this year at a fraction of the cost. We got away from our roster building strategy with the Shmercy Shmarvin move and I view this move in a similar light.

    • Volume 12

      Here’s the thing. When has anyone complained about Suh as a bad teammate? He’s never been injured, he’s the best DT in the game outside of JJ Watt, if you can call him a DT, and the rest of the league would be playing a game of ‘catch me if you can.’

      Suh is a 3 down monster, and could you imagine a DL of Bennett, Mebane, Suh, Avril, and Bruce standing up off the edge? Then add in Marsh and Hill off the bench/in a rotation, and 1-2 developmental draft picks? Good lord! Talk about being the bully again and striking fear in the heart of opposing offenses and OCs.

      I could see this happening and I could see it not. Really going out on a limb there, huh? If the price is right, and it may be plus the temptation of playing for a contender and playing here, in his native PNW aka Pacific Northwest. But I still just don’t see it happening. Would absolutely love it and am keeping my fingers crossed, but at the same time, I’m not getting my hopes up.

      • peter

        The thing for me as well Volume 12, imagine how amazing the LOB could be if they had a DLine that could collapse the pocket as you stated above. For a long time they’ve been carrying so much water it might be nice to have some spooked Qbs tossing gimme picks at them.

        As for FA offensive talent Seattles track record regardless of regime has been almost horrible with FA acquisitions in that department why not swing for defense for a change and build the offense in the draft?

        • Volume 12

          I agree Peter. I think they will build the offense through the draft, or have an offensive heavy draft. I would love it if Seattle was able to get Suh, but only if it meant not having to sacrifice everything else.

          We do know the defense will always be the identity of this team under PC, so it makes sense swinging for the fences defensively. If Suh is willing to come here on a reasonable deal, then pull the trigger until your dry firing.

          It would be sweet relief if the LOB could get some gimme picks, as you said. I wonder if having Kris Richard as our new DC we’ll see more creativity in the defensive play calling? At least a couple more blitzes per game, especially with KPL coming back and his insane speed rush ability.

      • JeffC

        But to do it you need to make painful cuts and bleed your depth to get the necessary money available since we know RW will get paid.

        • SunPathPaul

          JS saying the out-of-the-box comment on RW’s contract makes me feel they will play the system.

          Give RW a super long contract with big guarantees, knowing in agreement personally that he will renegotiate along the way for the team…and himself to squeeze the dollars out, without killing the team.

          Imagine a 10 Year $160 million dollar contract with $80 million guaranteed!

          You cheat the system! He gets his BIG numbers, basically $80 mill for 4-5 years, then they rework it.
          Move the money around for the needs and all is well…

          • Mark

            Skip the signing bonus and make the first 4-5 years fully guaranteed. Or, make a Kaepernick style contract where the next year becomes guaranteed near the start of the off-season (and make a longer guarantee for injury.)

      • Rugby Lock

        That would just be obscene… and the chance of winning a SB in the Whiners house would be even better than watching Sherm and Russ eat turkey on their logo!

        • Pman

          I’m sorry, you’re wrong.

          *Nothing ever* will be better than watching Richard Sherman eat turkey on the SF logo. #3 is just gravy. (Pun so very intended.)

    • Rob Staton

      I’d look at it like this CA — sure, they can use the draft on a defensive lineman. But it won’t be a player with Suh’s insane impact. And in terms of a FA receiver — you’d still need to lure them to compete in a run-first offense with minimal targets (not easy). That could lead to overpaying for a player in his 30’s instead of using the draft to bring in a WR to grow with Wilson over the next few years.

      • j

        That and Suh is better than any WR available in FA or trade. Good comp as to the impact he would have to this team would be adding Calvin Johnson at WR.

      • Rugby Lock

        The flat out impact that Suh would have would just be staggering… waaaaaaaay more than any other FA signing…

        • Attyla the Hawk

          You’re also talking about a UFA from a defensive standpoint that is similar to Peyton Manning going on the market in 2011.

          You don’t get league MVP caliber talents show up on the open market very often. And especially you don’t see them available still entering their prime.

          The opportunity is just exceptionally rare. And the fit is very much ideal for Seattle. Suh provides everything that this ‘in the coversation for best defense ever’ squad lacks. He’s the final piece of the puzzle to establish a defense for all time.

          Franchises don’t get that opportunity but maybe once every 40 years. Suh puts this defense in the Steel Curtain/Bears ’85 class at the very minimum. That’s the floor. This defense already is arguably as good, but generally seen as just a shade below those squads. And it’s due entirely to our defense not comparing favorably on the DL. In particular in our ability to dominate at the LOS.

          Suh provides that by himself.

          Honestly, if I have to plow under or redraft for good/not great talents on the offense — I make that trade off immediately. Can we redraft a couple of OGs to replace Carp and Sweezy? Most definitely. Can we draft a TE to replace Miller? This year even. Without trading up. Can we draft a WR to replace Kearse? Uh yeah I’d hope so.

          Can we draft a replacement for McDaniel in day 3? Sure. Mebane? Well it’d be a drop off I’m sure, but then we’ve seen that this defense can absorb his loss already.

          Can we replace Lynch? No. But honestly, we don’t have to have Lynch. If we had for example, a Le’veon Bell instead — would we be wringing our hands because he wasn’t everything that Lynch was? Lynch is unique. But you don’t have to have just him in order to have a good rushing attack. And it’s worth noting his age. At some point very soon, he’s going to be Lynch in name only. RBs tend to decline virtually overnight. Was Steven Jackson any less of a face of the Rams’ franchise? He plummeted off the cliff between seasons. It’s disheartening, and it’s also virtually unpredictable when that decline happens. Resigning Lynch retains the name value. But we did that with Shaun Alexander and he dropped off the map overnight as well. We know full well that life after Lynch is not staved off merely by ignoring the reality that he’ll decline.

          Do I think Lynch can be good for 2 more seasons? Yes. Do I think there is a strong possibility that he could be half the player he was in 2014 in just 9 months from now? Yes. It’s a monstrous risk and if we can help insure that we have a quality successor on the roster the day that happens — it’s worth doing. And it’s worth incurring the dread of the unknown. Because the reality is, this team is going to have to absorb change at the RB position in the next year or two. We will be a different kind of running team. It doesn’t mean we won’t be a good or even great running team.

          Ultimately, the draft would be more about reloading at positions we are already good at. Not using the draft to add additional value.

          The additional value would be the bump in acquiring Suh. And we could draft 3 guys at new positions and not achieve the same level of improvement with just the one addition of Suh.

          Suh, at his age, talent and fit — would be worth prematurely moving on from Lynch. Or rather, I don’t think that one/maybe two years of Lynch is worth passing on this particular talent and rare opportunity.

          Seattle is entering the dynasty phase of the franchise. One only has to look at the Patriots to see the blue print. And that blue print entails rolling over you talent, and letting a lot of great talent go and opting to reload. And it also means taking the opportunities to add difference makers when they present themselves (Revis). We can’t hold on too tight to Lynch at the expense of the health of the club. We already made that mistake in 2006. While on signing day, we were all filled with happy thoughts of keeping the band together. Ultimately, the teams that are willing to shake up the band and lose ‘irreplaceable’ players only to find suitable replacements repeatedly — those are the teams that have a legacy of sustained excellence.

  8. Cameron

    If we are to pursue Suh it seems to me like this Lynch situation needs to resolved before the start of FA. My worst fear is Lynch decides to retire right before the season and we save his salary but all the good FA’s are already signed.

    • Volume 12

      Who are all the good FAs? I would set my hair on fire if Seattle ever signed a FA HB to carry the load.

      • Kyle

        Volume 12, Manchester. (meaning I get to punch you in the chest if that happens and you don’t light your hair on fire) If I remember correctly, Seattle has already done that in acquiring lynch. Yeah, he was technically traded from BUF, but still, they are capable of signing a FA HB to carry the load. They are willing. It wont happen this year, and I don’t think Cameron is only talking about HB FA’s. I think he means all around FA targets being gone.

        Side note, SIGN SUH!

        • Volume 12

          LOL! Good point about Lynch, but he was in his prime. I could see Seattle taking a chance on a FA HB if he’s young and in his prime.

          Yeah, I wasn’t sure if Cameron just meant FAs in general or FA running backs,

          • kyle

            Haha now you are changing your tune. Yeah I think he means fa in general. I wouldn’t spend money on anyone but ap free agency wise hb. Well maybe Stuart from Carolina. But I’d much rather get guurley in the draft.

            • Volume 12

              There’s just a real dearth of elite talent at the HB position currently in the NFL. There’s a ton of depth at the position coming out of college in the next couple of years though.

              Your right, drafting a running back is the surest way to get ‘your guy’ instead of settling for what’s available on the market.

    • Rob Staton

      I think they will push for a decision on Lynch in the next few weeks. I think that has to be the #1 priority. I doubt they’d let it get to the summer. They’ll make him a take it or leave it offer.

      • JeffC

        And if he doesn’t sign can totally see the home run hit with Suh, esp with Harvin’s dead money coming off the books after 2015. If Fitz would take say 12-13 million to play here (assuming he’s cut) would you be willing to release Baldwin to free up some of that money?

        • John_s

          Fitz isn’t worth 12-13 mil. He is not the Fitz we remember. He’s 5-6 mil at most

        • Rob Staton

          No, I wouldn’t want to release Baldwin. I’d have a stern chat with Baldwin, but I wouldn’t even consider releasing him. And I agree with John — those days are gone for Fitzgerald. He can’t expect to earn that much if he’s released by Arizona.

          • CHawk Talker Eric

            About ADB – how will this offseason affect him?

            Now he has some time to reflect on how close they came to repeating as champs, how poorly the passing game was in the SB, how puerile his actions have been, how leaderless the WR corps is.

            He’s a smart guy. He’s also angry. If SEA brings in a vet WR, that’s one thing. But if they build through the draft, he’ll need to step up in the locker room.

            • Rob Staton

              I think this will be a turning point for ADB.. a time to mature. I think he’ll get there.

              • John_s

                I think it’s time for DB to take a page out of RW’s play book and just ignore the noise and prove the doubters wrong on the field. His spats with Deion and Cris Carter are played out.

                I agree with Deion and CC that the receiving core is aight and pedestrian. The tape doesn’t lie however I think that Baldwin has a chance to show them that he is more than that. The talking and the antics after the GB game and his touchdown celebration takes away from what he is trying to prove.

                Hopefully he gets that and matures and comes back next season with a 1000 yard season because that will speak louder than anything he can say

                • Volume 12

                  I agree with Rob and think ADB will get there.

                  To be fair to Baldwin though, how annoying is Crip Carter? This guy is going to call out Jerry Rice!? Are you kidding me!? How far did Cris ‘All he does is catch TDs’ Carter take his team into the playoffs? And don’t think for one second Cris, because Rice had better talent around him, that some of those Vikings teams weren’t fantastic. 15-1 and you get beat by an average/upstart Atlanta Falcons team? Get over yourself dude. I used to love the guy, and know I can’t stand him, so I do understand Doggie’s frustrations.

                  • Volume 12

                    Should say *Dougie not Doggie

      • Arias

        It sounded from JS’s interview today that he was resigned to the possibility that Lynch deciding what to do could take some time.

        • Rob Staton

          Possibly. It’s a month until free agency starts though. I think by the start of March they’ll be pushing for a resolution.

          • JeffC

            We have to assume that they will have scenarios planned out all in advance.

  9. Volume 12

    Rob, this is off topic, but it’s something that caught my eye.

    I noticed Seattle signed 7 players yesterday, one of them being WR Kevin Smith-5’11, 208 lbs., 4.46 40. Then I saw his broad jump was 10’6” and it noted that he had the ‘lower body explosion’ that Seattle likes in their receivers.

    So, it appears you were right about WR Jalen Strong, but really my point in bringing this up is, besides all the other obvious qualities to look for in a WR prospect, perhaps we should all be keeping our eye’s on the broad jump numbers of the guys at the combine and their pro days this year, relative to their size.

    I just thought that was interesting.

    • Drew

      Kevin Smith is a former UW receiver, he spent time in camp with Seattle last year. Great athlete but still pretty raw. I believe he also spent time with Arizona and JAX as well last year. The only interesting thing is that he could take the Jermaine Kearse route in development to make the team eventually, as there is a reason he was undrafted.

      • Volume 12

        No, that’s not my point, I simply brought up WR Kevin Smith for one reason. ‘He has the lower body explosion that Seattle likes in their receivers.’ That part was interesting,

        Maybe one of the things Seattle covets in their WRs is lower body explosiveness, which would explain why they seem to favor the smaller type of wideouts. It’s speculation on my part. but IMO paying extra attention to the broad jump numbers of the WRs in this class could be helpful.

        • SunPathPaul

          Doesn’t sound like a guy that has a roster spot… Draft unaffected by him being here.

          we need 2-3 catchers! Wr and Te

          • Volume 12

            You guys aren’t understanding my point, It has nothing to do with WR Kevin Smith being a part of this roster.

            • Radman

              I get your point and I think it’s a good one. Hawks care about athletically explosiveness and Smith has it.

              • regnaD kciN

                I’m still not certain you’re entirely getting Volume 12’s point, which has little to do with Smith. It has to do with how the Hawks FO measures “explosiveness,” and how it’s tied to broad-jump numbers. Checking those out might give a clue as to who our favorites in the draft’s WR class might be.

                • Radman

                  No, I get it. The Sparq metric and their interest in it is well documented. Smith likely scores high in that measure, which is why he was mentioned by V12 at all.

                • Volume 12

                  Thank you RegnaD.

    • Rob Staton

      It’s a very good observation. And they do love the broad/vertical jump. Christine Michael basically got drafted by SEA because of his unbelievable 43 inch vert.

      • CC

        Maybe CMike can become a receiver with that vert – LOL

  10. JC

    Probability aside, that would sexy. Unfair and sexy.

  11. bigDhawk

    If Suh does sign with us, he will have to avoid stomping on a pile of ADB doodoo.


    Sorry…couldn’t resist.

  12. SunPathPaul

    They can make the Suh signing possible. It would be powerful…

    Then they would definitely need to cut some peeps, and draft offensive heavy.

    We need 3 more catching threats at least. We need dynamism! Separation. Consistency.

    Then with RW / Lynch, our D, many more super bowl appearances are coming!

    We need to make Chris Matthews more a threat by adding another talented tall 6’4″ plus WR to create mismatches. Not to mention another multi talented TE with 6’4″ plus size to add to the “TREES” personnel package we need to aid RW for years to come!

    Then add a speedy quick weapon that also is a PR/KR WR like Dorsett, Lockett, etc., and we are golden!!!! w/o golden…lol

    Draft 3-4 catchers, and 2-3 OL, then watch the rest unfold!!! 2015 Super Bowl 50 winners

    • neil

      I don’t think sb 2015 is too likely. The schedule is brutal again. Green Bay and Carolina for the third time in three years? dallas, Pittsburg, Cinncinatti, Baltimore, Detroit, I would imagine the league will stick it to the Hawks by making most of those games away. So with or without Suh It’s a tough road to ride.

      • Travis Williams

        The league doesn’t get to pick which of those are away. Other than division games, our Home/Away schedule is

        Home; Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh Carolina
        Away; Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas

        The only thing the league can pick is what part of the season those games happen in, and what time they’re played.

  13. Volume 12

    Connecting Invisible Dots?

    With the recent hiring of PCs eldest son Brennan, who we know was the former TE and WR coach at Miami, and new LB coach Michael Barrow also coming from the same school, am I the only one who is falling in love with the idea of drafting Miami WR Phillip Dorsett at #31? Or with our first overall pick (would it really shock us if they trade back into the 2nd round again)?

    I admit that originally I wasn’t a huge fan of Dorsett. But after watching all the footage I can find on him, Rob’s analysis, and after the week he had during the run-up to the Senior Bowl, I’m now 100% sold on him. John S and Dave made a Joey Galloway comp, which is actually pretty good. His physique is eye opening for his size. I can see the John Brown comparisons as well, but to my eye, he’s more along the lines of Steelers WR Antonio Brown. Hear me out.

    Against Nebraska earlier this year, a game in which Seahawks scouts attended by the way, he makes an incredible acrobatic/’go up and get it’ catch on the red-line mind you, demonstrating the ability to fight for the ball and showing he can high point passes. With his video game speed and start-stop ability he can destroy zone coverage looks. He’s so smooth and such a glider, it enables him to separate instantly, and thus he can attack and get open against man coverage. This is after all one of our biggest issues in the receiving core, right? Watch him work the middle on some of the crossing routes he runs.

    There’s a great video online of him where he beautifully describes how to track the ball during punt returns and describes the difference between punt and kick returns. He wasn’t a KR/PR this year, but his knowledge and understanding of it leads me to believe he’s more than capable of handling those duties, which is really just a bonus when considering Phillip Dorsett.

    Now, he does have his faults. Who doesn’t? His route running could be a little sharper, but that can be coached up. The game does need to slow down for him, but it’s because he plays at such an accelerated pace, and that will come with time and experience. Also he does have an awkward ‘catch point. Although, what would you expect? This kid is a former track star and has always used his speed to stand out and just recently has he learned the nuances of the game. IDK what kind of blocker he is in the run game, but I’ve noticed the will is there.

    I don’t think Dorsett is the finished article in any sense of the word, but that’s one of the more exciting things about him. There’s so much potential and he presents a coaching staff so much to work with. He also has that grit, and I can’t remember the exact word Rob used to describe him, but he basically said his attitude shows he can handle being a no 1 WR. Seattle needs receivers who will capitalize their opportunities and this kid is the definition of a ‘chunk play specialist.’

    With newly hired Brennan Carroll, he’ll know the ins and outs, and how to maximize Dorsett’s potential. And since Michael Barrow is our new LBs coach, he probably knows how opposing defenses will try and attempt to neutralize Phillip Dorsett. It’s somewhat of a win-win, and I’m hoping this is a legit opportunity. Or am I trying to connect dots that aren’t there?

    • Cysco

      I don’t think the brought Jr. in because they want any specific Miami Player. I mean, couldn’t carroll just ask his about the kid over thanksgiving dinner?

      I think there are two main reasons why they brought him in.

      First, he’s been heavily involved in recruiting at the college level the last couple years. This was one of Pete’s big advantages when he came to Seattle. He was incredibly familiar with all the college players across the country because he either tried to recruit them himself or he played against them. That advantage of having a pulse on the college landscape is gone since the majority of kids Pete would have recruited are out of the college ranks now. His son however give seattle four-five more years of knowing all the college players.

      Second, Brennan is incredibly personable and perhaps even a better recruiter than his dad. (or at least his equal) I imagine Brennan is going to be heavily involved with free agency and talking to player trying to recruit free agents to come to seattle.

      When pete came to seattle many people thought he would draft a ton of USC players. That wasn’t the case. He used his insight into the college ranks to get the player he wished he could have gotten at USC. That’s what Brennan can do for us.

      • Volume 12

        The gist of my post wasn’t about bringing in Brennan Carroll and Michael Barrow specifically for drafting guys out of ‘The U.’

        But rather, it shouldn’t some as a surprise if they do, and if anyone has the inside track on WR Phillip Dorsett, TE Clive Walford, CB Ladarius Günter, OL Ereck Flowers, HB Duke Johnson, DT Olsen Pierre, LB Denzel Perryman, OGs Jon Feliciano & Shane McDermott, or DE-LEO/SAM LB Tyriq McCord, it’s now the Seattle Seahawks.

        WR Phillip Dorsett is currently one of the hottest names leading up to the draft and as Dave said, after his combine, he’ll only get hotter. We now have THE guy who can tell us if he’s the real deal or not.

    • Dave

      I watched some game film of Dorsett, his interview and the Senior Bowl practices. He can run other routes beside the 9. He’s short but not little. Legs are thick and he looks like he has some lower body explosiveness (that one’s for you V12), Goldenesque. I expect Dorsett to put up some crazy numbers at the Combine, all of the speed and agility drills plus the bench. Some of the announcers compared him to TY Hilton and Antonio Brown. I’m buying into Dorsett. I think we can trade down like last year and get him in the top 1/2 of the second.

      If Lynch retires and we have a shot at Gurley or Gordon, I want Gurley first and Gordon second.
      If Lynch signs an extension, this is my mock:

      2. WR Phillip Dorsett
      2. TE Clive Walford for his huge wingspan and clutch catching
      3. CB Ladarius Gunter, looks like poor mans Collins, 4.5 vs Collins’ 4.4

      All U of Miami first couple of days!

      • Volume 12

        Glad we see eye to eye on him Dave.

      • john_s

        I agree about trading down if for anything to gain more draft picks for either this year or next year. You know JS loves draft picks in the 4-6 rounds and that’s where he really excels.

        Also a small byproduct of trading down is that you gain additional cap space. This would never be the main reason to trade down however, for example the difference in cap hit for the 2014 draft between pick 31 (Bradley Roby) and 45 (Paul Richardson) is about $400,000 for the 1st year, 500,000 2nd year, 600,00 3rd year and 700,000 in the 4th year.

    • Attyla the Hawk

      Dorsett is one of my favorite players in this draft. Not sure we’ll have to spend #31 to get him. He’s definitely the kind of player that we could trade back into the 2nd round and hope he slots there. He’s probably a 40-65 overall kind of player. But really this is a draft where we could trade back, hope he falls and if he doesn’t, there will be significant and attractive alternatives there.

      His ability to get clean separation is tantalizing. It’s a very good fit for us.

  14. Radman

    I’m not a big fan of spending money middle aged (by NFL standards) defensive players and then running a young offense. Jimmy Johnson warned against this approach, and Holmgren has admitted to that mistake early in his tenure in Seattle. Ideally, that model says, you want youth on D and experience on O.

    It makes sense to me.

    • Volume 12

      I get what your saying.

      But, ideally you don’t draft a 5’10 QB, or draft 6’2-6’3 CBs, ideally you don’t want under-sized pass rushers. Ideally you don’t draft a hulking LB with the intent to turn him into a SS. Ideally you don’t start a 7th round rookie at OG, who was a D-line convert.

      • Radman

        yeah, but those things are about specific players. This is more about the fundamental nature of playing O and D.

        • Drew

          But with Pete’s philosophy, it’s all about getting unique players and finding a way to use them. They’re always trying to get younger and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least Mebane and Miller being released and not bringing back a few older guys like Lockette.

    • CHawk Talker Eric

      That logic doesn’t really apply to players who dominate their position like Suh, nor to teams like SEA who rotate heavily on the DL.

    • Rob Staton

      In fairness, Holmgren would say that given his offense relied on timing, precision and familiarity within the scheme. Seattle’s offense is a lot more in the moment — scramble drills, read option, power running, taking shots, chunk plays. And it wouldn’t really be a young offense — it’d be a mature, veteran offense (Wilson, Lynch, Okung, Unger, Baldwin, Sweezy etc) with an infusion of youth and playmaking at WR/TE.

      Plus, I’m sure Holmgren would’ve love a player as dominant as Suh during his coaching days. Even if he has just turned 28.

      • Radman

        Granted. But I think the logic still applies. Players dominate their positions but they also get hurt as they age. We are now entering the career phases of Earl, Sherman, and Kam’s career where availability begins to decline. And we are now entering the career phases where Bennett and Avril will start to decline in production and availability as well. That’s not to say that they’re no longer good players. But you can expect injury, fatigue, and slow ebbing/drops in production after age 29.

        Going huge (and Suh would be huge) on yet another player in that age bracket is a lot of cash spent on players on the defensive side of the ball who, physically, have most of their best years behind them.

        I think it’s getting into the danger zone in terms of age/cost balance for a defense.

        And I would further argue that one thing this offense needs is more systematic plays, especially in the WR, as you mentioned.

        • Rob Staton

          I think this is a bit OTT on age concern. Sherman et al are in their peak years as is Suh. If he was 31 I’d take your point. He just turned 28.

      • Jake

        Holmgren got a dominant, established, late 20s superstar defensive talent (Reggie White) and promptly won a Super Bowl. So, even the Walrus would approve of Suh to Seattle – even if it stunts the growth of the offense.

    • j

      Ordinarily you would want that. But Suh is extraordinary.

      • Radman

        You’d be paying for extraordinary. He has been extraordinary, but you might not get extraordinary going forward. A lot of what you’re paying for in a player like Suh is his pass rush. Players tend to lose that explosive first step after age 29, typically.

        You might be paying elite money to a player who is no longer elite in his most expensive skill set.

    • Jeff M.

      Elite DTs age pretty well, though, and Suh’s proper comparison set really ought to be HOF-caliber guys.

      Cortez Kennedy started all 16 games and had 6.5 sacks and 2 INTs at age 31 (where Suh would be at the end of a 4-year deal). Randy White was an All-Pro with double-digit sacks at both 31 and 32. Warren Sapp had 10 sacks for the Raiders at age 34. John Randle had 10.5, 10, 8, and 11 sacks at ages 31-34.

      Yes, sacks aren’t actually a great metric for DTs, but it’s an easy way to note that these guys were all still at the top of their game into their early 30s–age isn’t really a reason to avoid signing a 28-year-old Suh.

    • MFNewguy

      I kind of look at the idea of adding Suh like Green Bay when they added Reggie White. dominant at his position, will effect how teams look at seattle. We all heard the talk up to GB and the SB, their small up the middle. You should challenge them make them stop you. With Suh you will have All Pro’s at every level of the defense. Look at our schedule next season, I think it looks a lot better with Suh playing D for us.

  15. Mark

    I really want to dislike Suh for his on-field behavior. But, damn it Rob, laying out a 2015 defense adding Suh and a RCB like Collins has me dreaming.

    As Volume 12 points out, Suh has never been talked about as a bad teammate. He is just hated by every team that doesn’t have him. That would just feed the Seahawks hate among the fans. Embrace the hate! It’s also a nice bonus when we play Green Bay this year.

    • DC

      During the Detroit-Dallas playoff game, I went from rooting for Detroit pregame to just the opposite. The reason was due to watching Suh punch through the Dallas O Line and just destroying things. I thought to myself, hell no do I want that guy crunching RW.

      Is there a better fit in the entire league to add to this Seahawks defense? Adding Suh makes it flawless. A dominant, penetrating 3 tech is the only thing we don’t have. Sack numbers, interceptions and general mayhem will rise across the board. I say hell yes!

      Mark is right. We would be despised at a whole nuther’ level.

      • Attyla the Hawk

        “Is there a better fit in the entire league to add to this Seahawks defense? Adding Suh makes it flawless. A dominant, penetrating 3 tech is the only thing we don’t have. ”

        Hammer. Meet the head of the nail.

  16. Ho Lee Chit

    Let me see if I have this straight. All of you young, numb nuts think we can afford Larry Fitzgerald and Ndamukong Suh? I thought people stopped believing in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy when they were ten years old. What are we going to do with our 11 draft picks? Give them away? Well, there is one way to pay for this. You can toss Marshawn’s $8.5M cap hit into the pot. I am sure Marshawn will be retiring before he commits to practicing every week against Suh. Then you will need to add Adrian Peterson to this fantasy roster.

    • Rob Staton

      I don’t think anyone has suggested they could add Fitzgerald and Suh. The point of the piece is — if you add Suh you’d have to go offense-heavy in the draft. But that wouldn’t be such a problem and might happen anyway.

    • Dave

      If Marshawn leaves via trade or retirement, do we go all out for AD?

      • Colin


      • Attyla the Hawk


        Go via the draft. It’s a very deep RB draft. Not something seen in a few years.

  17. Colin

    The part that is left out is Suh has also said he’ll let his agent decide where he’s playing next. He’s not coming here to play for peanuts and I just don’t like this move. It would probably get the defense back into legendary status, but after 2015 you’d really start feeling the downside of the move.

    Does getting Suh balance out losing Mebane/McDaniel and Miller?

    • Cysco

      “Does getting Suh balance out losing Mebane/McDaniel and Miller?”

      Absolutely. And then some.

      There are very few true difference makers in the NFL on defense who single-handedly level up a defense. Hsu is one of them.

    • Rob Staton

      The projection includes keeping Mebane for 2015 but not beyond. I’m not sure Mebane lasts beyond 2015 anyway. I think Suh at the expense of McDaniel/Miller would be a fantastic trade-off personally. 2016 would be tight, and beyond, but we should also remember the rising cap and the eventual departure of Marshawn Lynch (and others). It’d basically pressure you to draft well — but I’d take on that challenge as a GM. Especially during a Championship window.

      • Cameron

        Hey! The SDB community dream of moving on from Okung would probably be realized in this scenario!

        • Rob Staton

          Certainly not my dream!

          • OZ

            Nor mine…

        • MJ

          I don’t understand the yearning to get rid of a good LT. They are so hard to find. Just look at the most recent top 10 picks at OT…most of them are garbage and are already looking to be replaced due to performance.

          It’s a tough position and with no viable alternative, I’m not sure why some are in love with the idea of getting rid of a hard to find asset.

        • Rugby Lock

          Mine either! Okung isn’t Big Walt but who is? Besides, who are you going to replace him with anyway?

        • Attyla the Hawk

          Isn’t my dream.

          Okung isn’t even a cap issue really. He is definitely worth more than shelling out 3m apiece for Carpenter and Sweezy. You can get run specialist OGs in day three of the draft. That’s where you don’t overspend.

          They are good players. But they aren’t great players. And they certainly aren’t impact players. Those are guys you reload with rookie deals. That’s how you afford good/impact players elsewhere on your team.

          Same goes for receiving talent. Baldwin is a very good slot guy. Kearse is a good/not great wideout. Certainly could be improved on or at minimum swapped for a cheaper equivalent.

          If we agree, that run specialist talents (both on the offensive and defensive lines) are fairly generic and are not prone to overdrafting — then it follows that replacing those positions should be the most trivial for any team in any draft.

          On a mature roster (which Seattle is moving towards), you have to find significant value deeper in the draft. For those roles, the money spot for getting good/not great players is the 3rd through 5th rounds. Seattle can expect to effectively roll over cap spend (future and existing) with players in those ranges over the next two seasons.

          2016 is seen as a critical cap year. Ultimately, we can’t be paying Mebane, McDaniel (or any other veteran run stuffer), OGs, 2nd corners, Lynch. Those contracts are going to have to fall off the books. These next two drafts, we would do well to seek to reload some of these 2nd contracts and pending second contracts.

    • Madmark

      We didn’t really have Mebane and Miller most of last year or when we were winning down the strench. McDainals is a good run stopper on 1st and 3rd. Suh plays all 3 downs.

      • CHawk Talker Eric

        Agree. Let Mebane walk and keep McDaniel.

        Also, $7mm cap space frees up in 2016 (leftover Harvin hangover).

        • dtrain

          But Suh is a 3-tech–like McDaniel. Mebane is one of the best 1-techs (and the best tilt nose) in the business. He is also a leader. McDaniel would have to be the one to go–unless you want Hill to start at nose.

          • CHawk Talker Eric

            Exactly. Start Hill in place of Mebane.

  18. J2 MED

    I really think this all depends on Lynch and the FO over the next few weeks…if he’s gone next year (which I sincerely doubt), and assuming we keep rnd 1 pick, do we take a guy like Gurley or try to go for Collins? And what happens if neither of those guys are there? Rnds 2-3 look like a damn good place for WR and OL, so would it be a reach to draft some of those guys? On the other hand, not having to worry about Lynch’s money next year would make it much easier to sign Suh. On the (third?) hand, if Lynch is around next year, I think the debate as to whether to go HB/CB is still very much a legitimate debate. Do you go for Gurls, who will legitimately challenge Marshawn for carries, or lock in that secondary? While I’m wary of our current RCB status, I’m more comfortable with drafting a RB, aggressively pursuing DL depth in the hopes that it takes pressure off the backfield, and going WR/OL the rest.

    I just realized those were practically all questions.

    • JeffC

      If Gurley is there you take him without thinking and worry about filling spots later with all the extra picks. The offense is too heavily dependent on the running game to not commit the best potential resources to it.

  19. sdcoug

    Not to mention, is there a better way to ‘ease’ Richard into his DC role than to plug a Suh into the middle of the line, pat him on the butt and say Go?

  20. Ehurd1021

    Rob not sure if you have had a chance to watch tape on two CBs that I really like in this 2015 class?

    Alex Carter out of Stanford and Kevin Johnson out of Wake Forest. Carter and Johnson are both 6 feet and extremely long and physical at the LOS. The thing that stood out with both on the tape I watched is how fantastic they are off of press and how smooth their footwork is at the line. The special thing with Johnson is he plays primary on the right side of the field and hardly never switches — identical in many ways to how the Seahawks play defense.

    Both are expected to be drafted (depending where you look) in the 2-4 rang in the draft. Curious to hear what you think?

    • dtrain

      Thanks for the heads up on Johnson. I went to his game vs Clemson on draftbreakdown. On first blush he has all the tools of Collins/LSU but with a lot more finish–aggressive in the run game and tackles well. He really looks Hawkish! Carter, though, is hard to judge as he is rarely in press and he rounds out his drive on the ball. Looks physically long, however–and Sherman should have some recon on him for the DB coaches as he is a Stanford product.

      • Volume 12

        Wake Forest CB Kevin Johnson is like the P-Rich of corner backs. Long, lanky, fast, but such a natural. He’s very ‘Seahawky.’ Love his attitude as well.

    • Rob Staton

      I’ve seen some Carter and liked aspects of his game. Seen one game of Johnson — best in zone, didn’t see great length/speed.. Carter one of the guys I’m interested to see at the combine.

  21. CharlieTheUnicorn

    The SUH talk is great for for off-season banter. I still believe SUH will end up in Oakland. That defense is onyl a few pieces away from becoming a top 10 or higher defense. His antics on and off the field would fit the “Raider” mystique. They draft one more LB (1st round – Randy Gregory) to go with Mack and Moore…. they would have a legit shot at the AFCW.

    Long story short, I just do not see SUH landing in Seattle.

    • Alaska Norm

      Kind of have to agree. Might be using Seattle to drive up his value a bit. Unless RW really does give a home town discount it seems a little far fetched. It is fun to think about but I just can’t see it happening… Not trying to be a Debby downer, just the reality of it.

  22. Nathan

    I’ve been wondering the last few days, whether Seattle had waited on the contracts for Avril and KJ Wright, whether one or both of them don’t get done, if this story blew up while those guys were set to hit free agency.

    What does everyone think?

  23. 12th_Bob

    OMG, it would be simply unfair to have Suh in this defense and yes we can start thinking “All-Time” if he ends up here.

    On the other hand, I will be very sad if Lynch goes out and calls it a career after a game like that. I think he deserves better than to call it a day losing the big one so I hope he’ll come back for one more ride.

    • Radman

      To think…he very probably could have walked away from the game with his last carry being a Super Bowl winning TD run as time runs out.

      • CharlieTheUnicorn

        or a swing pass to the pylon lollipopped over the top by RW… catching the game winning TD. That would have rewarded him for his most underrated aspect, his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He is truly one of the top backs in the NFL currently.

  24. line_hawk

    Even though the idea is very enticing, that would be akin to putting all your eggs in one basket. You quite possibly will require to cut 3-4 good guys (a combination of miller, mebane, mcdonald, Irvin). Come 2016 and this will create a huge depth problem. Imagine if suh or Bennett is out for a few weeks.

    This would be like Atlanta-Julio move. Works great until your stars get injured and then your depth is mediocre. The risk is just too much. If there is one example of building a team for the long term, it’s the packers & the pats & both of them would not do this deal.

    • Drew

      The difference between us and Atlanta, is that Atlanta didn’t have any draft picks for depth. To get Suh we’ll probably have to lose Miller and Mebane. Irvin will still be here as he’s on his final year of his rookie contract, and McDonald isn’t even on the team anymore.

    • Rob Staton

      The projection Davis Hsu made allowed you to keep Irvin. I’m not sure Miller, Mebane and McDaniel would be here beyond 2015 anyway.

      • line_hawk

        Yes, Miller, Mebane and McDaniel will not be here beyond 2015. But, $16M can easily get players equivalent to them in future years. I would rather have a player of Clinton McDonald’s ability for $5M (+ a collection of awesome depth players) than a Suh for $16M. It has been proved time and time again that tying 40% your cap to four players (Sherman, Wilson, Suh, Thomas) is not a winning formula. Even the 2013 hawks won it all in large part because their heavy d-line rotation didn’t lead to a drop off.

        And to Drew’s point, yes we have 10-11 picks. But, we only have 4 picks in the first 3 rounds and the probability of finding a good player after that is very low. No doubt this FO has found players in later rounds but their record over the last two years indicates regression to the mean.

        • Rob Staton

          It’s worth noting the $16m number is an APY projection. His cap number might be, for example, $9m in 2015. Depending on how it is structured you can backload the deal and make a decision down the line on how much he actually sees of the contract.

          It’s true you’d have to draft well going forward and hit on picks to fill in the depth. But Suh would give the Seahawks a better chance to win 2-3 Super Bowls in the next five years than a collection of guys earning $3-5-m I believe. You would have to make sure you’re comfortable with the figures. I think a deal remains unlikely but not impossible. But you can still use a young rotation with Suh, Bennett, Avril and Hill as the focal point. And that would be a destructive, all-time defensive line.

      • line_hawk

        Here is a great piece on how its been such a long time since a dominating defensive tackle won a team a Super Bowl : http://overthecap.com/analyzing-top-cap-charges-super-bowl-champs/

        There is so much correlation in the cap histogram for Super Bowl winners its a goldmine of a pattern.

        • Rob Staton

          It’s not been that long since a dominating defense won one though — and Seattle’s would be all-time good with Suh.

  25. CC

    Suh = YES!

  26. HOUSE


    What are your thoughts on LaDarius Gunter?

    He’s got the size (6’1.5″/201lbs), press coverage and good speed (4.5). He’s got some swag to him and I think he’d fit right in. I think Gunter will be a great replacement for Maxwell and will get better playing with Sherman. I think he’s there for the taking in the 2nd rd.

    One thing I used to notice about Byron Maxwell in ’12/’13 was that in all the Real Rob Report videos, he was always getting picked on and seemed so timid when it came to guys like Sherman. Maxwell seemed to get loose/swaggerish and then his play seemed to naturally progress.

    Check him out:

    • Ehurd1021

      Reminds me a lot of Browner in how physical he is when he comes up and plays the run as a CB, which is fantastic! makes you KNOW he loves the game of football. Gunter, Johnson and Carter are my three favorite CBs I have watched tape on lately.

      • OZ

        I like Rollins,he keeps moving up draft boards. Raw although I think he will become a very good player. Seattle has the staff to coach him up.

  27. Regan

    I say go for it! Can you imagine our D with Suh and Hill in the middle combined with Avril and Bennet outside? That’s the most dominant D line in the league. Suh is the missing piece. Think Brady would have picked us apart like that with Suh getting pressure up the gut? Somehow i believe the outcome would have been different.

  28. drewjov11

    Gunter looks like the type of player who would fit in with the LOB. Obviously, that’s a highlight video. But still, big, physical, aggressive and instinctive.

  29. Drew

    What I think about with Suh on the team, is how unstoppable Michael Bennett would be. He would no longer see double teams. He was the 3rd ranked DE/DT in pressures/sacks only behidn JJ Watt and Justin Houston this year. He’d be an All-Pro with Suh next to him.

  30. Frank

    Read all the posts and don’t think I heard on work about the monster, Jesse Williams. I still have high hopes to see Hill Williams as our new, Mebane and Bryant. Suh would be huge for this defense, but what is the actual gain? Best defense in the last decade becomes best defense ever? Loss of Maxwell will at least marginalize the expected gain. I would argue that a big playmaker Wr is a bigger gain overall than another elite Dl. PC And JS haven’t used high draft picks to fill the position and expect they don’t belive that a elite DT is that necessary to run this system. Its all about expected gain and Wr is a glaring weakness.

    • CHawk Talker Eric

      I disagree. SEA have been looking for the prototypical 3T ever since PC took over. It is the key to his defensive strategy – push the QB out of the pocket and into space where SEA’s athletically superior DEs/LBs can make the play.

      WR is a glaring need. But it is not necessary to a run-centric team. However, a pocket-busting, pass-rushing 3T is essential to this team’s D.

  31. UKHawkDavid

    Given the scenarios of who gets cut to bring in Suh, I say go for it; good trade-offs for a special talent in a position of need. I’m dreaming but here is then how I see the draft going:

    1st pick (pick 31 or trade down) – WR (Jaelen Strong or Devin Smith)
    2nd – DE (Preston Smith or Markus Golden)
    3rd – OT (Daryl Williams or Jake Fisher)
    4th at the end of the 4th (I think harvin gets cut) – DT (Christian Covington or Grady Jarrett)
    5th (4th round comp pick) – WR (take a complete flier on DGB)
    6th – OG (John Miller)
    7th (5th round comp pick) – CB
    8th (other 5th round comp pick) – WR (Desmin Lewis or Deontay greenberry)

    After that it gets a little hazy but I just thought if share.

    • john_s

      Good call on Harvn, per Jared Stranger the Jets are going to cut Harvin. Seattle will get a 6th which they lost in the Marcus Burley Trade

      • AlaskaHawk

        If Harvin had any sense he would beg the Seahawks to take him back, agree to whatever training and personality management he needed, whatever conditions PC set, and not gouge the Seahawks for more money. He would have another shot at a superbowl ring.

        • AlaskaHawk

          Plus if successful he would prove to the rest of the league that he can work with a team instead of causing problems. That is vital for him going forward, he will never get the pay he got out of Seattle until he proves he is a team player.

          • southpaw360

            Interesting thought on bringing Harvin back. I doubt it happens but for the right price and him working on himself/issues I could get behind it for sure.

  32. smitty1547

    To answers Dave’s ?, YES Id say go get AD if the price is right, he had one mistake the rest of his career has been stellar. Plus he will be angry and ready to play for a contender.

    As for SUH my initial response was no way, however are FO approach has always been to look for game changers and field tilters and he is definitely that. So maybe if Lynch does not come back they would go for it.

    As for the above draft DGB will be gone long before 4th, someone is going to take a shot before are 2nd rd pick would be my guess.

  33. Madmark

    The windows for playoff teams usually only last a few years. Why not get a force on the defensive line to go forward over the next 4 years while that window is opened. This year will be Kevin Williams 13thyear, Tony McDaniels 10th year, and Brandon Mebanes 9th year. You either got to get someone high in the draft like a Carl Davis or you get a complete beast thru FA like Suh. Why wouldn’t he want to be on this defense. He’s made a name for himself but he hasn’t won anything like Chris Avirl has. I’m sure he wants a superbowl ring, cement his bid for the hall of fame, and play for what will be talked about as the best defense ever. It could turn out better than the Reggie White signing by the Packers because we already did what they did by being 1/2 in superbowls. I like to see them do what Buffalo did by going to 4 superbowls in a row and they couldn’t do any worse since they won 1 already. 3/4 would be even more beautiful. There are still to many questions to ask like can Jesse Williams, Gregg Scruggs, and Marsh stay healthy enough to actually contribute to this team. I would still draft another DL in the back part of the draft.
    Now for the draft I just don’t see that nu. 1 receiver being within reach but a Todd Gurley ticks all the boxes for me. If we go big for a DT like Suh then lets really go big with Gurley. We probably lose most of a year to rehab but if he becomes what we think he’ll be we have a 5th year option. This is no definite but a Ty Sabrailo in the 2nd, WR/PR/KR Ty Montgomery 3rd, TE Clive Walford 4th. Its so early but that’s some thoughts that are rolling around in my head.

    • AlaskaHawk

      I’ve been torn by the idea of getting Suh. Great player, but I’m afraid of bringing in anyone from outside the organization and paying them more then the players we have already got. It breeds resentment and can make that player act like a prima donna. I think Suh is a blue collar type of guy, and will give his best effort. But defense is a team game, no one player can control the outcome, especially on the line. Clay Mathews owned us in the Green Bay game, but at the end of the day we still won.

      Who will we give up? Not necessary to name players. 16 million is the equivalent of 2-3 good free agents or retaining draft picks. Plus with the new player then management feels like they can let those 2-3 people go. That was another problem with Harvin, when the Seahawks brought him in they let Golden Tate go. They also didn’t pursue other wide receivers, there are a lot of good free agent receivers that have been bought in the 6 million range, like Boldin and Welker. I think the same would be true of defensive linemen. Offer 8 million and see who you get! Two of them may be better then one Suh. After all, Detroit never got far even with one of the best defensive lines and excellent wide receivers. Seattle has a different mojo going on.

      • dtrain

        Excellent perspective. Basically, keep the band together AND add two free-agents a la the Avril/Bennett signings in 2013. Plenty of quality guys on the market, too. Maybe one $8 mil player and two prove-it one year guys in the $3-4 mil range (Henry Melton, Jabaal Sheard come to mind).

        • Rob Staton

          I really like Sheard but if you give me the choice of Melton + Sheard or Suh… I’m taking Suh every day of the week.

      • CHawk Talker Eric

        I see your point re bringing in a highly paid role player engendering resentment in the locker room.

        But Harvin and Suh are pretty different situations. The allure of Harvin was pretty much about his potential. He’d had tantalizing production with MINN, but due to injuries and, ahem “other” issues, never consistently. That lack of proven elite production, combined with (then) rumors of interpersonal dysfunction, made Harvin an uneasy addition from the start, particularly in light of how much SEA gave up to get him (draft picks) and how much they paid to sign him (5yr/$65mm). And finally, the investment of that much draft capital and salary cap space in a WR on a run-centric offense was, perhaps in hindsight, a poor decision.

        In contrast, Suh has proven elite level production. He is the most dominant 3T in the NFL, perhaps the 2nd most dominant DLer behind Watt. Any team bidding for his services (and there should be a few) will be doing so based on his perennial pro bowl level performance. The only “potential” aspect to going after him would be in terms of scheme fit. Which leads to the fact that unlike Harvin, Suh is a direct fit for this team – not just in terms of scheme, but in terms of NEED – SEA lacks consistent interior pass rush. Investing major salary cap space in Suh pays immediate and continued benefit – from the first defensive down of the season, and on almost every defensive down thereafter. And finally, assuming Suh reaches FA, it won’t cost nearly as much to add him as it did Harvin; SEA won’t have to give up any draft picks.

        Who do we give up? Forget draft picks, we won’t need to spend those. Structured properly, $16mm /yr is the equivalent of 2-3 current vet salaries. Slice it up any way you want, but in order to pay Suh enough in 2015, SEA will have to part with at least one key vet on each side of the ball. beyond 2015, as far as salary cap space – SEA gets $7mm more in 2016 from the Harvin hangover, not to mention at least $10mm in cap expansion.

        • SunPathPaul

          With Letting go of Mebane we get $5.5 mill back, Zach Miller $3.5+ mill back, and McDaniel over $3 mill too. That right there gets rid of older players, 2 of which are coming off of injuries, making us younger and more dynamic with Suh. Then Draft offensively heavy to make the offense affordable and in balance with the money spent on defense.

          2-3 WR, 1 TE, 2-3 OL, 2 DB, 2 DL

        • AlaskaHawk

          Those are some good points Eric. Suh would be a big benefit. However when you say lose a key vet on both sides of the ball, how many key vets are there on offense? Lynch, Okung, Miller and Unger are the only ones making a significant amount of money. When they are replaced the new players will eventually get that amount of money too. Except maybe we can get some savings at running back, but then if it is running back by committee we could end up paying two RBs in the 2-5 million range. Also Russell Wilson’s new contract will kick in next year, that is going to soak up any free offensive cash.

  34. bigDhawk

    Off topic:

    Rob, what do you think of Max Valles, the DE opposite Eli Harold at Virginia? He is quite a physical specimen at 6-5, 240 (probably heavier than that considering Harold was only listed at 235) and has a pretty good looking game tape against Pitt this season. Near the top of my list for the defense this offseason is to get another Chris Clemons – a third full-time edge rusher to give us the pass rush we had in 2013. We get some pass rush from Irvin but it’s a different role, while Obi is a max-effort player but just not good enough to be another Clemons. Valles is a declared RS Sophomore and though I can’t find his DOB anywhere but I have to assume he is quite young. If Harold is unavailable how big of a talent drop-off is it to get Valles instead and do you think he could become another Chris Clemons for us?

    • Rob Staton

      Think he should’ve stayed in school. Flashes at times but there’s too much bad tape. Kind of a feast or famine type guy. Don’t think he’s ready for the NFL and will need to improve technique/add size.

  35. Soggyblogger

    I think if the Hawks were willing to pay $15 million/year for Suh, the deal would get done. Something less than that is probably the most likely deal if a deal gets done. I’m thinking no more than $12 million or no deal gets done.

    It would make this the best defense ever probably. Gone would be Miller, and McDaniel,…….. and Lynch, darn it, but the offense would be fine working with great field position on a regular basis. No more bending but not breaking on defense. More like the defense would gain yardage for the offense.

    • Rob Staton

      I think they can keep Lynch.

    • CHawk Talker Eric

      Don’t be surprised, or upset, if they offer him the same overall deal as JJ Watt – 6yr/$100mm.

      A longer contract benefits both parties – SEA gets 6 seasons within which to spread the salary cap hit (not to mention the ability to restructure down the road) so they can realistically offer him this kind of deal, and Suh gets his pay day along with the bragging rights of being at the top NFL trophic level.

      SEA has room under the cap. They’re going to pay RW, Wags and most likely Irvin. If Lynch decides to play, they’ll have to pay him as well. Do they have enough room for all that? Maybe not in 2015, but they don’t have to extend Wags or Irvin until 2016 either. Also, does anyone expect Lynch to play (for SEA) beyond 2016? Down the road, when he inevitably leaves the team, his salary becomes available.

      There is room, under the cap and timing wise, to add Suh, extend RW, extend Lynch and keep the core of the D together through 2015.

      • AlaskaHawk

        I expect Lynch to retire after next year. I wonder if that is more or less likely if Seahawks win another Superbowl? I think more. There are some speedy Harvin type running backs we could pick up in the second round, like Duke Johnson with Miami Florida.

        • Volume 12

          Right now, I’m really digging Indiana HB Tevin Coleman, His work ethic may not be on par with Wisconsin’s HB Melvin Gordon, but it’s not far off. He has a great head on his shoulders, overcame adversity, close to his family. I think he’d be a great fit in this locker room.

          IMO HB Tevin Coleman would be a devastating back in a ZBS. He’s just a flat-out tough/gritty kid.

        • CHawk Talker Eric

          Miami has a fistful of really intriguing prospects – Flowers, Dorsett, Johnson, Walford, Gunter.

          And as V12 pointed out, SEA has first hand insight into each from Brandon Carroll.

          Unless Gurley is an option, I’d prefer SEA trade back into R2.

  36. Volume 12

    Rob, what do you make of Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft? I’d love to see what he could do with some competent QB play.

    • Rob Staton

      Not seen the tape V12.

  37. manthony

    Im originally from Portland like Suh is amd ive followed his whole career, im 100% on board with doing what we need to, to bring him in. I dont think hes all that dirty and if anything I blame Detroit look at some of the wierdos theyve produced in hip hop, m&m, icp, kid rock, ‘its so cold in the D’, its something in the water man. That town revered the Bad Boy Pistons, so itcould be Suh was justtrying to fit in too.

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