Adam Nathan joined Robbie and I to look ahead to the Rams playoff game in this special edition of the podcast. Included are our predictions for the the NFC & AFC games plus a conversation on why these playoffs are so critical for the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.
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Yes. Next week will be the real teller (which would make a loss this weekend utterly demoralizing). Can they advance and progress?
I believe there’s even more pressure because of the future draft picks they’ve mortgaged. How could they lose again and not improve when they’ve given up so much? That’s unforgivable.
Will the Seahawks win vs the Rams?
Simple answer, yes.
The development of effective covid vaccines means that NFL revenue in 2021 could return to the track that was expected pre-pandemic, which in turn could mean a cap number that is considerably higher than the minimum $176 million agreed between the players and owners. There will nonetheless be a day of reckoning for a number of teams, and, as you said, the Saints are the ones with the biggest problem.
On Christmas Day, OTC posted a useful article on possible strategies they could employ to address the situation. Their solution: cut Brees, Kwon Alexander, and Janoris Jenkins (among others); restructure Cameron Jordon, Michael Thomas (and others); extend Taysom Hill and convert salary to bonus; and trade Marshon Lattimore. They calculate this would save $91 million, which would leave them just $8 million short of the current cap. It probably isn’t going to be a great year to be a Saints fan if they don’t win the SB.
My only fear is nfl does something to allow these teams to get a pass on being over budget for a year. Due to unforseen events. But i hope we see the most insane offseason ever. Cause there will be tons of players moving around. Rappaport and schef thumbs will fall off from tweeting. Josina is on the phone as we speak getting ready for it.
Heard a Covid-19 relief package of approx $2,000,000,000 for each NFL owner is in the works with an uncapped 2021 season. Regular cap formulas return for the 2022 season pending the number of FaRTS (Fans actually Returning To Stadiums) returns to within 80% of pre-Covid volumes.
We are likely to have 17 games next year. That, along with a broadcast contract renewal, are likely to bump up the 176 figure a fair bit. Still less than it would have been without the pandemic, ofc.
I don’t see why Covid vaccines would impact a cap that is going to be impacted by the lack of income from games already played.
The calculation of the cap is spelled out in the collective agreement, but the owners and players can change it by mutual agreement – which they have already done for 2021. They are free to change it again by mutual agreement; in particular, they can agree to amortize the covid financial hit in 2020 over whatever time period they want. League revenue over the next five years (say) is almost certainly going to be considerably higher than might have been expected six months ago, and both players and owners might want to borrow (in effect) from that rosy future to avoid the financial disruption that a drop in the cap to $176 million this year would cause.
Serious question. How much can Russ complain about playing Pete Ball when he’s tied for 3rd in INT’s thrown?
He could easily turn round and say he threw those picks because he was pressing trying to prop a historically bad defense up at the time. And he’d have a valid point.
I don’t think that is valid.
If you think you’re the greatest alive, you should get every MVP vote, then you should rise to the occasion.
The picks were on totally Russ and maybe Schotty.
Russ or Schotty wanted to force the ball downfield and Russ couldn’t make those throws.
Bad defense could’ve been combatted with running the ball, or making easy, shorter throws.
How is putting the ball in harms way help your defense? That would be a way for Russ to throw someone else under the bus. He and Schotty should take responsibilities for that awful passing game
It’s simply not right to completely ignore that the Seahawks were a one man team for several weeks playing with an appalling defense.
If you’re going to ignore the impact that could have on any QB, you’re making a mistake.
No question Russ was a one man band for several games, trying to make up for a defense that was playing historically bad football. If the team didn’t score 30+ points they weren’t going to win!
Although the early results were good and Russ looked like the best QB to ever play the game, he ultimately succumbed to the pressure. Maybe he would be more successful now that the defense has improved significantly, as there should be less pressure to score every time they have the ball.
As others have said, it still seems like a healthy mixture of Russ cooking and Pete ball makes the most sense! Offensive balance is generally a very good approach to successful football. Keep defenses guessing because you can throw and run equally well.
Regardless Russ should feel a whole lot better now that the defense is competent!!
Is it fair though to look at Rodgers and Mahommes and see two QB that are capable of being that one man team carrying the team alone on their shoulders? I bring it up because it feels like Russ may believe he’s on that level and want’s to be treated like them in how the team is structured. Yet he is clearly, to me, a step below them and not capable of carrying a team like they are. So if Carroll sees Russ’s level being different than Russ does, that creates a bit of a problem.
Neither of those players have been asked to do what Wilson was asked to do at the start of this season.
Nick Wright from FS1 said this on Cowherd’s show yesterday and I’m paraphrasing here: “If SEA can take the offense from the first half of the season and combine it with the defense from the second half of the season, they could be the most dangerous team in the NFC.” If PC ball doesn’t work in the first half against LA, does PC pull the pin from the grenade and let Russ cook in the second half?
Well he’ll have no choice if they’re behind
Yes, but PC pulls the pin in the 4th quarter. Is he willing to do it earlier, like if the rams get like 14 points in the first quarter? Does he pull the pin there or does he stick to his ground and hope the defense makes stops and Carson gets 5-7 yard carries per attempt?
Just saw this at the bottom of a Seattle Times article. Hopefully he and Reed are better by Sat. or it’s all on Poona at big DT.
“Defensive tackle Bryan Mone was the only player on Seattle’s 53-player roster not to practice Wednesday, listed as dealing with an ankle issue. Mone was on injured reserve this season because of a high-ankle sprain. Mone was listed as a full participant Tuesday and may have been getting a rest day. He has played 26 and 27 snaps the past two games.
The Seahawks have just three true defensive tackles on its roster — Mone, Jarran Reed and Poona Ford. Reed is dealing with an oblique injury and was listed as limited Wednesday. But it’s a good sign he practiced on at least a limited basis after he sat out Tuesday. If Seattle needs to add depth at defensive tackle it could elevate rookie Cedrick Lattimore off the practice squad.
With Reed, three other players were limited — safety Adams (hand/shoulder), Brown (knee/resting vet) and running back Chris Carson (foot/load management). Everyone else was a full participant, including running back DeeJay Dallas, who has not played since injuring an ankle vs. Washington on Dec. 20.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-jamal-adams-on-pro-trump-mobs-storming-of-u-s-capitol-its-disgusting/
Wish we would have brought back 6’5″ 350 lb. Anthony Rush a week ago after the Packers waived him when they signed Snacks. He played here earlier in the year and we made a similar move, he knows the system, could have already gone through Covid protocal and been on the practice squad ready to call up in just this situation.
I hate the Snacks situation. Totally weak to bail on your team but I wish we would have played him against the Rams along with Mone or done something other than waive him (at the very least keep him away from GB who has trouble stopping the run). Hopefully, Mone is ok and Snacks is only a JAG for GB (or better yet Tampa takes care of GB next week for us).
at least we have Luke back on roster. he can play any position.
I’m rooting for Buffalo to make it out of the AFC simply because I feel for the city. To lose 4 straight SBs is ‘inconceivable’. The loooooooooooooong division title drought & perpetual darkness of the gi-hugic Brady shadow is finally past. I was happy for K.C. last year & if it’s not us hoisting the Lombardi I’d be happy for Buffalo & their fans.
In the NFC… duh.
Public Enemy #1 for me remains the A-A-ron Rodgers’ GBP.
Don’t punch the Bills ticket just yet, the Colts have a for real defense and a vet QB.
This looks like it might be a very tight game.
If the Hawks cannot win the SB, I’ll be rooting for KC and the Saints.
I like Brees, and he should go out with a bang. Their roster is great, boosting a really good defense, and weapons like Thomas or Kamara. Not a huge fan of their FO but don’t really hate them either.
As for KC, I like Reid and Mahomes might be the best QB in the NFL. Really fun to see them play, their offensive playcalls are a beauty, CEH is a blog sweetheart, Kelce is amazing, they have an ex-Hawk Clark and an overall OK/good defense.
Other than these 2 I don’t really care who plays and wins it as long as it’s not the Rams or GB or maybe the Bucs (don’t like Brady, he seems a bit douchey)
Interesting
Hmmm…
League would never allow that
Heads up Jamal !
https://twitter.com/ECSN206/status/1346977753157931010
Would people trade Wilson for Watson straight up? I know Wilson has a no trade clause but just asking.
No
Yes. The Texans were such a dumpster fire this year people overlook just how good Watson was. Watson is also 7 years younger than Wilson, which is part of the reason Houston would never do it.
Yes, unequivocally.
When does S. Carolina DE Kingsley Enagbare (6’4, 270 lbs.) start getting talked about? Whew. 6 sacks, 7 TFL, 23 pressures in 8 games?
Guys I don’t think I have any new insight on the Rams for a watch points post, having done two of them this year. So I’ll just link my two:
Week 10 Rams Game Watch Points
Week 16 Rams Game Watch Points
I’ll say I agree with Rob, that the Seahawks would hugely benefit from a fast start. But not just because of putting pressure on Wolfie. That Ram defense smells blood when they get a lead and shift into a different gear.
Also, I hope Luke Willson has been working on his interior DL pass rush moves and adding bulk in the last month or so. That’s the only reason I can see the Seahawks adding a 5th TE with Mone and Reed banged up.
But seriously, the only reason I can think of is Hollister in the Niner game completely whiffing on the block RW audibled him to the LOS to max protect on, and it scared the staff. And somehow they think Willson would’ve picked that man up better.
I see the speculation that Deshaun Watson wants a trade . . .and my worried mind goes right to him joining the 49ers. Now, that would suck…..
If he’s seriously going to be traded, I don’t think the 49ers would have a chance to get him. There are a lot of teams that would want him and could offer a lot more than the 49ers.
I could see the dolphins with the 3rd pick for example
Pat McAfee was speculating over Miami. Who he thought could trae tua and a 3rd to Texas for Deshaun.
Florio’s piece didn’t say the Texans would trade Watson.
It said he might ask for a trade if he doesn’t like the direction of the team after they appoint their new HC.
Unfortunately for Watson he just signed a long term contract. So if the team don’t want to move him, they won’t.
Greg Cosell on Cowherd’s show talking about Seahawks offensive struggles, points out the following.
1. Identity Crisis- Russ cooks 6-7 games, hasn’t since (PC/RW dynamic)
2. RW’s vision is declining- (Probably due to 3 & 4)
3. O-line’s poor pass pro performance- (no brainer there, interior o-line is the weak link)
4. RW senses pressure too early- (happens when you have constant pressure, especially in the middle of the pocket)
5. No rhythm on offense- (If Carson/running game can’t get going, power vertical offense is useless)
Did they say what medical basis they have for point 2?
So I’ll try to explain it. When Cosell means by “vision” is when a QB goes through his reads looking for an open receiver, tight end, etc. There have been glimpses of this throughout the season. The most recent one was in the 49ers game, where RW was back to throw and decided to run with the football, but when they show the replay, Troy Aikman pointed out that Jacob Hollister was wide open on that play. My opinion is that RW’s vision is declining due to the constant pressure from the pass rush, not just from this season, but basically his whole career. Cosell didn’t say why RW’s vision is declining, but he did point out that it is very unusual. I hope that brought some clarity.
1. Maybe yes, but winning is more important to both of them than anything else.
2. I’ve wondered this. He’s not lacking in arm strength. It could be vision, but it could also just be eye strain/being tired/stress. We know he famously doesn’t sleep enough. We know he invests heavily on his wellness, I know COVID messing up the routine of people who live very structured lives, is a very real thing.
3. I see it every game
4. I see it every game
5. I see it every game and have been kind of ranting about our lack of an actual running game for a few days (I’ve cooled on it).
Rob,
Reflecting back to the beginning of the season and all the discussion re: pass rush… would you not be ecstatic to take a 12 win team, with 50% more sacks than last season that is dependent on Russ playing effectively to win? I certainly would.
Look, we’re all a bit scared of getting burned in the playoffs as we have in the past few years. We’re still scared by all the McVay wins against our team. It could very well happen that we lose. However, at the same time, it’s good to acknowledge how far this team has come regardless with a solid 4-man rush, better LB core and improved secondary. It doesn’t help to put out the expectation that we should win handily in any playoff game.
My 2 bits.
I would contest that the Seahawks haven’t ‘come’ anywhere yet. If they lose on Saturday or the following week, it’s the same outcome as 2015, 2016 and 2019. In 2018 they lost in the wildcard. The only difference between this year and last would be one more regular season victory, which is understandable given they got to play the NFC East (won by a team with a losing record) and the AFC East, not to mention the collapse of the Niners (who made the SB last year) due to injury.
You also say we need to acknowledge how far they’ve come with a solid four-man rush. You might not realise this, but they actually increased their blitzing after Carlos Dunlap arrived. They blitzed between 34-36% of the time in the second half of the season overall. That’s a huge number for this defense. So the sack numbers were manufactured to a large extent. It’s all well and good saying they had 50% more this year. Their blitz percentage was, for a large chunk of the season, about 10% higher. That makes a big difference.
Furthermore, they are blitzing twice as much in 2020 than they were in 2018 when they had a legitimate four-man rush courtesy of Frank Clark. This all should be acknowledged.
As for:
You seem to be on the one hand wanting me to acknowledge everything is great this year for the Seahawks, while at the same time pretend I don’t anticipate a good win on Saturday because you think others will be influenced by my positivity.
That’s a bit strange.
Actually, my point is that you seem intent on setting the team up for failure of expectations – whether it be not fixing the pass rush, not getting to the super bowl, and I would submit, if they get there it would be either that they didn’t win as expected or that they didn’t somehow manage to keep certain players in the wake of a successful season. Your positivity is comparable to Marley’s liberality.
It don’t think its an exaggeration to say that you were hysterical about the failure to sign players to address the pass rush well into November. Hysterical. We certainly were all disappointed. And some of us also wanted to discuss other aspects that were unexpected positives such as the O Line performance.
But to continue to beleive that its all smoke and mirrors due to increased blitzing (do the math of +10% blitz x success rate and you still won’t get to a 50% increase), then move on to Pete ball… and btw bring up long past posturing and contract negotiations with Russ as the next potential failure on the horizon? You don’t honestly see that as an overall negative outlook and looking to simply point it out? Come on.
Its ok to dream big and have high expectations. Its ok to point out the fact that expectations haven’t been met. Its also ok to occasionally acknowledge that things have turned out better than you’d expected as well.
I said the pass rush looked like a major weakness — and it was, setting the table for a first half of the season as bad as anything in NFL history defensively.
That was a legitimate concern to raise.
Now I’m saying I expect them to beat the Rams considering they’ll be starting their backup QB or an injured Goff. Again, a legitimate prediction.
I predicted a 26-9 win at the end of the podcast.
Here’s a thought — maybe instead of reading too much into my views and concocting some weird conspiracy that everything I’m saying is setting up a negative, you just acknowledge that I have opinions that might not always agree with yours?
Of course it’s an exaggeration. You’re doing the classic thing of attempting to undermine me (“you were hysterical”) to avoid having to actually address the points I raised.
The thing is, this is my personal blog. If you wanted to talk about other subjects, you had plenty of options. You could’ve started a thread on Seahawks Reddit or Seahawks.net. You could’ve indulged in Seahawks twitter. Field Gulls or another website might’ve written the article you wanted to read.
I have no responsibility other than to write about the things I want to write about.
Firstly, I didn’t say the sack numbers were ‘smoke and mirrors’. I said you have to acknowledge the increased blitzing when discussing the rise in total. It was a completely fair point to raise, especially as you then referred to the success they were having ‘rushing with four’. As I pointed out, they actually increased their blitzing when Carlos Dunlap arrived, which I doubt most people realise.
I tallied all the numbers. Three weeks into the season they were blitzing at 36.4%. They then dramatically reduced that number due to the explosive plays they were conceding. By week seven they were blitzing at 26.2%. Since Dunlap’s arrival, they reached a weekly high of just over 35% in weeks 12-15 and never went lower than 33.2%.
As for the math — it’s nowhere near that simple. My point doesn’t depend on ‘50% more blitzing, 50% more sacks’. A smaller percentage increase in blitzing is perfectly capable of dramatically improving your sack numbers. The Seahawks had a pathetic number of sacks last season, massively increased their blitzing and improved those numbers. Whether you’re willing to accept it or not, there is a degree of manufacture there.
A much more useful statistic is sack percentage. Seattle improved from 4.5% to 6.4% this season, despite that 10% increase in blitzing. So the improvement isn’t that significant. Especially when you consider in 2018, when they only blitzed 18% of the time instead of 34-36%, their sack percentage was 7.3%.
I wrote a +3000 word long-read on this subject and backed up every point I raised. I referenced three-years worth of trade rumours from the likes of Adam Schefter. If you want to debate the subject matter in that piece, feel free. You need to provide detailed counters though, to match the detailed points I raised. You don’t get to reduce that article to a one-sentence response, suggesting it is ‘negative’.
And it’s OK for someone to have different opinions than you. It seems like that’s something you need to come to terms with.
Question is, if it is just a contract play, would he really need to do it this way? And, if so, why? Wouldn’t PC just go to Jody and say: “give the man what he wants so he’s here as long as I am.”?
Per Breer:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/06/nfl-mailbag-urban-meyer-jacksonville-jaguars-match
It’s an interesting situation.
As I said in the podcast, there’s a lot that could potentially go on in the upcoming weeks. I think a lot of people are blind to what might be around the corner in Seattle.
I do think, however, that this was a media negotiation from JS. If Seattle doesn’t bite though, he could go.
Perhaps a negotiation for control over the roster rather than a contract number per se…?
He’ll never get any more control of the roster.
I think JS just wants to be paid mega money. And if he’s not getting it in Seattle, he can get it elsewhere (with the added bonus of more control).
According to Florio, JS isn’t among the highest paid GM’s currently.
I still think it is about money at this point. For all we know the ownership group made John an offer on an extension and it was way below what he wants. JS knows how to negotiate and at the end of the day will do what’s best for him and his family. I can still see JS wanting to be here with Pete just a little bit longer but eventually he WILL step out of Pete’s shadow and prove who he is on his own.
Cha, you gettin’ this…? 😲😉
First things first…advance past Saturday.