Everyone knows this is a big off-season for the Seahawks. Pete Carroll said only half-jokingly that he was going to be ‘recruiting’ during the Pro-Bowl (where he’s coaching the NFC players).
Even so, it’s interesting to see Russell Wilson talking publicly about the need to attack free agency.
Wilson told ESPN the following from the Pro-Bowl:
“I think we need a couple more (players)… I think we need a couple more. Jadeveon (Clowney) is a big-time guy that we would love to get back on our football team. He was so good in the locker room. He brought so many, just havoc plays to the field. Hopefully, we can get a few other players there on the defense. Then also on offense, we have a great offense, but I think we can always add more pieces. I think that’s going to be the part that’s going to be great with John Schneider and Pete, as well, in terms of this offseason’s free agency. Free agency is very, very key to getting those superstars on your team and try to get great players that can fill the space.”
The situation is summed up succinctly by Wilson. They need key additions. They’re not a million miles away from being a top contender. Yet they’re missing a blast of quality in key areas. They don’t have a good enough defensive line or pass rush. They might lose their one star on the D-line in Clowney. They could use a playmaker in the secondary. The offense could also do with a bit more help too.
How they go about adding that quality will be the interesting part.
They’ve endured a re-set but it’s time to jump through the Championship window. They have the ability to be bold with a strong cap situation and plenty of draft picks.
It’s a strong looking group of free agents on the defensive line. Among the top-ranked players for pass-rush win percentage in 2019, five are pending free agents (although that includes Jadeveon Clowney) and three (Shaquil Barrett plus Za’Darius and Preston Smith) were reasonable open market signings 12 months ago:
Robert Quinn 33%
TJ Watt 28%
DeMarcus Lawrence 27%
Myles Garrett 26%
Aaron Donald 25%
Joey Bosa 25%
Jadeveon Clowney 25%
Shaquil Barrett 25%
Dante Fowler 25%
Za’Darius Smith 23%
Preston Smith 23%
Grady Jarrett 22%
Chris Jones 19%
Of course, not all of the free agents will be available. Chris Jones is almost certain to be tagged by Kansas City. Reports this week suggested Jerry Jones is determined to keep Robert Quinn and apparently the feeling is mutual.
Fit is also important. Shaquil Barrett doesn’t have the length or profile Seattle usually goes for and while his production was excellent in 2019, he was playing in a much more aggressive, blitzing defense under Todd Bowles. In fact Barrett blitzed more times than any other player in the NFL this season — 176 times. That was 26 times more than second placed Matt Judon and 61 times more than Kyle Van Noy.
There’s a significant difference between Bowles’ scheme and Seattle’s preference to be effective rushing with four.
This is why Seattle needs genuine top talents on their defensive line. For years they had Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. If they retain Jadeveon Clowney, that will solve one position. He’ll need a partner though. They hoped Ziggy Ansah could be the man in 2019. Now, they need to land someone who will deliver.
Having further studied this draft class during the Senior Bowl, I’m more convinced than ever that pick #27 could be used in a trade. The options at the end of round one do not look particularly strong at this point. As always, the combine can and will change things.
It would be nice to have the option to tap into the strong receiver and O-line classes if possible with the first pick. However, first and foremost they have to solve the pass rush dilemma. If they want to rush with four, they need Clowney and one other. They need their 2020 answer to Bennett and Avril.
The positive with a trade is you might be able to get value for money. We discussed Von Miller as a possibility two weeks ago. Trading #27 for him is expensive yet his salary — $14m in 2020 — would be considerably less than you might have to spend for a lesser player in free agency. Clowney + Miller would be adding the superstars Wilson speaks about and the Seahawks could legitimately rush with four next season.
Such a move could leave enough cap space to re-sign George Fant and add Austin Hooper. You’d have two second round picks, a third rounder and two fourth rounders to address other remaining needs on the defense and at receiver/O-line.
Of course, this would depend on Denver (or anyone else) being willing to trade a star pass rusher. That simply might not be possible.
In that instance you have to look at free agency.
Over the cap has projected salary costs for some of the top free agents. Here’s a collection of names we’ve discussed. The number is the projected APY or, in the case of Jarran Reed, how much he can expect to earn on a one-year prove-it deal.
Jadeveon Clowney — $21m
Yannick Ngakoue — $19.5m
Arik Armstead — $17.5m
Austin Hooper — $10.13m
Karl Joseph — $4m
Robert Quinn — $10m
Jarran Reed — $10m
Interestingly they didn’t provide a figure for Dante Fowler, who we’ve presumed would earn big money. He could be a strong option as a quick pass rusher with the arm length they like. He had a productive 2019 season. We’ve also discussed Arik Armstead as an interior alternative.
Anthony Treash at PFF listed both players in a group of ‘free agents who carry the most risk’:
EDGE DANTE FOWLER JR.
As said previously, never trust the sack numbers. Fowler had the best season of his four-year career in 2019, producing a 73.4 pass-rush grade that ranks 31st among qualifying edge defenders. Fowler has gathered up the sixth most sacks (15) while ranking 38th in win rate and 20th in pressure rate. Not to mention, he had the second most pressures that were cleanups or pursuits. His pressure rate this year was over three percentage points higher than we have seen from him in a single season. Fowler is likely going to get overpaid based on the 2019 sack numbers, but that’s not to say he isn’t a good player — he’ll be a good addition to a pass-rush unit if a team can get him for the right price.EDGE ARIK ARMSTEAD
For the third time now, never trust the sack numbers. Armstead has had a career year in 2019, producing an elite 90.0 PFF grade that ranks third among edge defenders. His run defense has been admittingly great, as his grade in that facet is the fourth best. His pass-rushing has been good, but not quite as good as some may think. His 76.1 pass-rushing grade is a career-high and ranks 25th in the NFL. Similar to Dupree, his 13 sacks has him on his way to earning a projected five-year, $85 million contract with $45 million guaranteed per OverTheCap. Despite producing the ninth most sacks, Armstead ties for 33rd in pressure rate. He has won on 17.2% of his total pass-rush reps, which ranks 17th, but this shouldn’t justify making him the fifth highest-paid edge defender in the NFL. All this being said, Armstead is not on the same level of risk as (Bud) Dupree — he has been one of the top 20 most valuable edge defenders in each of the past two seasons, but again, is not worth what he will be paid. If the cost is high for Armstead — like it’ll almost certainly be — stay away.
In both instances it seems the write-up is weighted negatively to fit a piece that is seeking to identify ‘risky’ free agents. In fact Treash admits it’s not that Fowler and Armstead are bad players — it’s simply a case that they might be overpaid. It’s also perfectly plausible that both players are rounding into a peak. After all, they’re only 25 and 26-years-old respectively.
Are either ‘superstars’ though? When Calais Campbell reached free agency in 2017, to me he was a legit ‘superstar’. The Jaguars signed him, he’s been immensely productive for three years and they came within a whisker of reaching a Super Bowl two seasons ago. How things could’ve been different had Seattle possessed the resources to acquire a player they clearly have a massive amount of admiration for.
If you look at PFF’s free agent rankings, the top defensive line ‘superstar’ is probably Clowney. Chris Jones won’t reach the market. Yannick Ngakoue probably will be tagged, although he might be available via trade afterwards. There’s a lot of depth on the D-line set to reach the market but not many true stars. In fact the ‘star’ talent is probably reserved for Clowney, Amari Cooper, A.J. Green (who will probably be tagged) and maybe Anthony Harris plus the quarterbacks.
For that reason, again, the trade market possibly comes into play.
It also could be that Seattle’s big splash comes out of left field. Who thought they would trade for Percy Harvin and have enough room to add Bennett and Avril in 2013? Who thought they’d be able to land Clowney and Quandre Diggs this time last year for a third and a fifth round pick? It’s worth looking at the teams with cap issues to see potential cuts or possible trade targets.
Minnesota is nearly $10m over the cap for 2020. They will have to make savings, particularly if they want to keep Anthony Harris. It’s almost certain Everson Griffen will be cut. He’s a strong option for Seattle, albeit as a short term measure. It’s not improbable that they’d retain Clowney, sign Griffen and then draft someone like Julian Okwara to try and solve the pass rush issue (whether this would be adequate is another question). Minnesota is a definite team to monitor though. They need to make multiple savings and don’t have much wiggle room even if they cut Griffen. Keep an eye on Stefon Diggs and maybe even Harrison Smith.
Jacksonville is only $34,754 under the cap for 2020. It’d be nice to say that could make Calais Campbell available (they’d save $15m by moving him) but Marcell Dareus ($20m saving), A.J. Bouye ($11m saving), Marquise Lee ($5m saving), Brandon Linder ($8m saving), D.J. Hayden ($6m saving), Jake Ryan ($5.5m saving), Abry Jones ($4m saving), Geoff Swaim ($3.75m saving) and Chris Conley ($2m saving) are all more likely to be cut or traded.
The Saints need cap space and have traded with Seattle before (Jimmy Graham) but there are no obvious targets on their roster that make financial sense for either team. The same goes for the Bears, Steelers and Falcons.
If the Redskins draft Chase Young as expected, they might be willing to consider trading Ryan Kerrigan ($11.6m cap hit in 2020). We’ll also see if the Jets consider dealing Jamal Adams, what the future is for Odell Beckham Jr in Cleveland and whether O.J. Howard and David Njoku become available. Joey Bosa appears to be setting the table to leave the Chargers but it’s extremely unlikely they’d entertain trading their best player just as they move into the new stadium. It’s possible some of the tagged players are targeted but that would be expensive (picks + a huge salary).
Off-season’s have never been boring during the Carroll era. Even over the last two years when they’ve had minimal cap space and hardly any draft picks — they still parted with key players, extended contracts for Wilson and Wagner and traded Frank Clark. They’ve traded for Jimmy Graham and Percy Harvin. At other times they’ve been aggressive to add Duane Brown and Sheldon Richardson and struck gold by trading for Marshawn Lynch. Most recently they traded for Clowney and Diggs.
They will get things done. They will likely heed Wilson’s words this week and add their superstars. We just need to see how the puzzle fits together.
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