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Looking at the top ten picks

I still have a hard time imagining this guy being anything but the #1 pick

Hands up who thought Atlanta and Houston were genuine contenders to own the first pick in 2014?

It’s suddenly a reality with five weeks to go in the season.

Few teams are playing tougher than Tampa Bay right now (and big props to Mike Glennon who really looks the part), while even Jacksonville have picked up a couple of wins.

The Falcons and Texans, meanwhile, appear doomed.

And while the players (and coaches) have a point to prove in Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, there’s a definite feel of “what’s the point?” surrounding the two teams who expected to compete for a Super Bowl going into the season.

How do you get that motivation back? Is it possible?

If you own either of those teams, do you even want to get it back?

Both clubs have enough talent to rebound quickly in 2014. Throw in a top-five draft pick (or even the #1 overall pick) and that becomes an even greater possibility.

Imagine J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on the same defense. It could happen.

Even if you badly need a quarterback — can you pass on that?

This is how the top ten would look if the season ended today:

#1 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-9
#2 Houston Texans 2-9
#3 Atlanta Falcons 2-9
#4 Minnesota Vikings 2-8-1
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-8
#6 St. Louis Rams (via Washington 3-7)
#7 Cleveland Browns 4-7
#8 Buffalo Bills 4-7
#9 Oakland Raiders 4-7
#10 New York Giants 4-7

If San Francisco beats Washington tonight, the Rams would leapfrog the Buccs and own the #5 pick. Washington’s strength of schedule (0.497) is weaker than Tampa Bay’s (0.571).

The funny thing about that list is Cleveland, Buffalo and Oakland are all one game off a wild card spot in the AFC. Had the Raiders beaten the Tennessee Titans yesterday, they would’ve had possession of the #6 seed.

Instead, they’re in possession of a top-ten pick.

I’m not planning on doing any full first round mock drafts for a while, but here’s an early look at what those teams might plan to do based on the limited information we have.

#1 Jacksonville Jaguars – Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
#2 Houston Texans – Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)
#3 Atlanta Falcons – Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama)
#4 Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
#6 St. Louis Rams (via Washington) – Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
#7 Cleveland Browns – Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)
#8 Buffalo Bills – Re’Shede Hageman (DE, Minnesota)
#9 Oakland Raiders – Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
#10 New York Giants – Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)

But hey, it’s still early.

Walter Thurmond facing four game suspension

One suspension is a suspension too many for any team.

The Seahawks, for all their positives, have a serious issue on their hands here.

And it’s becoming a bit of a farce.

Too many players are missing big games. Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, seven (S-E-V-E-N) players have been suspended. Six for PED related issues, and now Thurmond for Substance Abuse.

Vai Taua, John Moffitt, Allen Barbre, Winston Guy, Brandon Browner, Bruce Irvin and Walter Thurmond.

Richard Sherman also faced a suspension last year, but avoided missing any time after a successful appeal.

After Irvin’s suspension, Carroll stated, “This is a challenge…. it’s a challenge for us, and it’s a challenge for the league. The league is doing everything they can to help guys make it through these young careers that they have.… And we are too.”

Yet here we are, seeing another Seahawks player suspended.

At a time when Seattle’s football team is 10-1, a legitimate Super Bowl contender and getting praise from all quarters, this issue is threatening to undermine everything they’ve achieved on the field.

It’s damaging reputations. It’s already gone too far.

And more than anything it’s costing the team. With Brandon Browner out for 4-6 weeks, Thurmond is now going to miss a month. Right before a game against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

Unacceptable.

Talking guards — the 2014 class and is it a need?

UCLA's Xavier Su'a-Filo might be the best guard available in 2014

To answer the question on whether guard is a need — I don’t think so.

Not a crucial need, anyway.

But I know a lot of people disagree.

I think J.R. Sweezy gets a rough deal from fans, much in the way Breno Giacomini became a bit of a scapegoat last season. Every mistake is accented.

“This guy isn’t good enough”

We want our offensive linemen to be flawless, when really very few are.

I still maintain that every time you don’t notice a particular linemen, it’s probably because they’re doing their jobs. Everyone likes a key block to break off a run, everyone likes to see top-tier pass rushers getting shut out.

But it’s the little plays that are the most important. When all they do is follow the script. And for the most part Sweezy appears to be getting the job done.

Sure, there are mistakes. What do you expect though?

This is his first year as a full time starter. We’re only a year removed from his original switch from defense to offense.

I doubt even Tom Cable and Pete Carroll expected the finished product by 2013. Their faith in Sweezy appears to be intact. And because of that I have no reason to think they’ll target a new right guard early in the 2014 draft.

On the left side, I’ve actually been impressed with James Carpenter.

It can’t have been easy playing next to Paul McQuistan (himself a guard) at left tackle. McQuistan did his best, but when you’re consistently giving up pressure on the left edge, it’ll always leave your guard exposed.

Pass protection isn’t Carpenter’s superior attribute at the best of times, mainly because he is a massive human being. I think he’s also lost a step with all the injury issues he’s had.

But as we saw at Alabama and now in Seattle, he is a terrific run blocker. And for a team that wants to run all day every day, it’s no bad thing that he’s stayed healthy and got some time on the field this year.

He too is making a transition from tackle to guard. Let’s not forget that.

And here’s the thing — the line has still performed. The running game has been incredibly productive despite all of the injuries.

The pass-pro problems can be placed squarely at the absence of the two starting tackles. For me, the success of the running game can be largely pinned on Cable’s running schemes and the performance of the two guards.

I haven’t charted specific plays to give you examples here, but over and over again during games I’ve noticed Carpenter and Sweezy making a big block to spring Marshawn Lynch for a nice gain.

You can’t argue with the stats. Seattle runs the ball frequently and productively. They average 148 yards a game — good for #3 in the NFL. Despite the laundry list of absentees.

When Russell Okung and Giacomini returned against Minnesota, we also saw a substantial improvement in pass-protection.

With Alvin Bailey also capable of playing guard and the general success of finding both Sweezy and Bailey on the cheap, I’m not sure an interior lineman will be considered a priority next year. Even if McQuistan — a free agent — is likely to depart due to necessary cap savings.

The biggest problem for me will be the right tackle position. Michael Bowie flashed in some games and struggled in others. I’m not sure whether we’ve seen enough to feel completely comfortable about him being the full time starter. Cable and co may have more faith there, I guess we’ll find out in due course.

But if Giacomini has to depart in free agency to save money, the right tackle position becomes something of a priority on a loaded team. Getting someone who can also cover at left tackle — as we’ve discussed — could also be needed to avoid another situation like we’ve seen this season.

To add to this, there are many good tackle prospects likely to be part of the 2014 draft. Enough that one or two good ones might just hang around until the late first round.

All of this is kind of reassuring, because I’m not a big fan of the eligible guards.

Of the group I’m probably most excited by UCLA’s Xavier Su’a-Filo and Alabama’s Arie Kouandjio. Neither is expected to be a first round talent. Su’a-Filo is athletic enough to maybe work into that area, but seems more likely to fall in the rounds 2-3 range. He’s a big time athlete but needs to become more technically adept.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see Su’a-Filo battle Arizona State this weekend, including defensive tackle Will Sutton.

Kouandjio lacks his brothers upside but would be a solid mid-round selection.

Of the others, the hype factor is in over-drive. There may not be a position in football that gets hyped as much as guard. Every year someone will identify “the next Steve Hutchinson”. Very rarely does that prove to be the case.

The thing is, it’s a tough position to judge. Tackles can mostly be measured by athleticism and watching them go 1v1 against the big-time speed rushers. It’s hard to make the same judgements on guards.

In some cases it can be easy. Last year was unique because we genuinely saw two players who were worthy of the hype in Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack. They deserved to go as early as they did.

But this year I fear we’re going back to old habits and overrating a couple of guys.

Baylor’s Cyril Richardson looks heavy and I’m scared to death of the scheme he plays in. It’s the ultimate spread and usually the ball gets out very quickly. How can you judge pass protection properly? And the way the prolific passing game dominates, it doesn’t half open up a defense inside for the running game.

Guys like Jason Smith and Danny Watkins looked great at Baylor, then flopped as first round picks. It doesn’t mean Richardson will go down the same route, but you have to be a little suspicious.

He’s massive at around 335lbs and might have some of the same issues we’re seeing with James Carpenter. In terms of body type they look incredibly similar. In terms of lateral agility he looks slow. This is a problem when any pass rusher stunts inside. When he’s not squared up with a guy, he’s sluggish. And more and more NFL teams are using stunts and big time athletes to collapse the interior.

I like him against a bull rush or standard straight up block. He absorbs defensive linemen and is rarely beaten in that situation. But as I say, it’s different in the NFL. And he has an obvious weakness when he needs to move around off the spot.

He’s a former left tackle. I’m always a little concerned when a guy is considered a better fit inside in college and they aren’t fantastic athletes (like Su’a-Filo). Tackles converting to guards in the NFL I get. Tackles who move inside in college because they’re too big — that’s when the alarm bell goes off.

Richardson is tough and appears to love the game a lot more than Watkins, but he might be most effective in the running game where his size and toughness are most effective.

If you’re looking for an upgrade on Carpenter in pass protection, I’m not sure this is your guy.

Stanford guard David Yankey is another player getting pumped up in the media. I went back and watched the USC tape this week and wasn’t quite as impressed as I was after the first viewing.

He pulls well, that’s to be expected. It’s integral to the scheme. David DeCastro did it, Yankey does it. The next guard who comes in at Stanford will be good at it too. It’s bread and butter Cardinal football.

I don’t like seeing Yankey pull as often as he does because he’s not going to do it in the NFL. I want to see him lining up 1v1 at left guard, driving people away to open up running lanes and sitting in pass pro. He’s a lighter guy (around 6-4 and 305lbs I’d estimate) so his body type is ideal for protection.

Yet when he does go 1v1, he looks inconsistent. He hasn’t got the sheer power to dominate versus the run and he’s far from unbeatable looking after the quarterback. I’d say he’s a pretty good player. But I’d struggle to invest a first round pick in him.

He looks like a prospect who could get stronger in the upper body and develop into a decent starter. But if you’re taking a guard early — you want someone who can dominate. Someone who is going to take your line to the next level. Few guys can do that.

So right now, I prefer the idea of Xavier Su’a-Filo or Arie Kouandjio in the middle rounds. Either that or I’d consider drafting Notre Dame’s Zack Martin — who I like as a tackle — and move him inside.

But I’m not blown away by this guard class on the whole, even if it’ll almost certainly get big licks from the internet draft community — just like every year.

I don’t mind the idea of Bailey or Carpenter starting at left guard, with Sweezy continuing on the right side in 2014. There are probably bigger needs and better players out there for Seattle.

It’s still early though…

Mike Evans is that good

Watching the Alabama vs Texas A&M game this year, it’d be easy to write off Mike Evans’ performance as a one off.

But when he keeps doing it — eventually, you just need to accept he is that good.

We’ll hear a lot about Evans’ proposed lack of deep speed, his limited athletic qualities.

It’s getting to the point where I just don’t care. If you draft a 6-5, 225lbs receiver you shouldn’t expect him to be lightning quick. As long as he isn’t a complete slouch, you can live with it.

What he keeps consistently putting on tape is everything you want from a guy his size. He is the perfect receiver for Johnny Manziel. And in many ways he could be the perfect receiver for Russell Wilson.

Manziel runs around like his hair’s on fire. He gets out of the pocket, he buys time. He improvises. And while Wilson is more about controlled chaos, they do share the ability to extend plays when everything seems lost.

Evans is adept at coming back to the quarterback. Some receivers just get it. When the initial call breaks down, it’s scramble drill time. And consistently Evans works his way back to Manziel to make a key grab. He finds a way to get open and provide an outlet.

His jump-ball ability is as good as it gets. Time and time again Manziel just tosses it up there giving him the chance to make a play. And he does. It’s men against boys out there. He goes up, high points the football and makes the big catches.

Evans plays every game like he’s pissed off. His interviews are notoriously curt and to the point. He has a spark to his game, a competitive edge. You want to see that.

And while he isn’t Calvin Johnson and won’t be running a 4.35 — there’s enough tape of him running away from defensive backs to at least feel comfortable with that part of his game.

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls wrote an interesting piece recently about Seattle’s emphasis in training camp on ‘dominating the red line’. Read the article for the details.

Doesn’t it look like Evans fits perfectly with that concept?

In the Auburn game (see above) he had eleven catches for 287 yards and four touchdowns.

Touchdown #1 — yards after the catch on an inside slant
Touchdown #2 — quick hit to the sideline, runs away from everyone for a 65-yard score
Touchdown #3 — more YAC and a nice leap into the end zone to finish the play
Touchdown #4 — another big downfield play in tight single coverage

It’s hard to find fault within his game when you look at the 2013 tape.

Seattle has some big decisions to make in the off-season. Golden Tate is a free agent, Doug Baldwin is a RFA. They’ve already spent big money on Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice’s contract will make for a lengthy debate.

If they keep Tate and Baldwin but lose Rice, it’s still going to be tough to get everyone their touches for the financial outlay.

For that reason, a first round receiver might struggle to have an early impact.

Yet there’s just something so appealing about Wilson having a guy like Evans to throw to. Someone to really put the icing on the cake for that positional group. The explosive playmaking quality of Harvin and Tate. The consistency and edge of Baldwin. And then the height, catch radius and red zone benefit of Evans.

The word ‘unstoppable’ suddenly springs to mind.

Imagine seeing Wilson scrambling around but having Evans as that safety net — coming back to the quarterback. Imagine having him in the red zone, having him running that sideline.

And imagine a defensive coordinator trying to work out who to double cover between Evans’ reach and ability to high point the ball, and Harvin’s pure game-changing physical quality.

Drafting him in round one would be a luxury and it’s unlikely Evans will last deep into the first round (unless he really clocks a slow time at the combine).

But if you’re looking for the next big physical freak of nature who comes into the league and just churns out production — Evans could easily be that guy.

Monday draft notes: QB talk, Ebron, Gilbert, top-15

Talking quarterbacks

This is how I see the 2014 quarterback class — no truly elite or obvious number one talent, lots of guys who could potentially start in the NFL.

The media has latched onto Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater. I’m not sure that’s a great idea.

Last year they similarly attached themselves to Geno Smith, Tyler Wilson and Ryan Nassib. Matt Barkley, in fairness, had fierce critics from the start. But the other three were highly regarded at various points during the 2012 college season.

Funnily enough, Barkley’s biggest critics (eg people like Greg Cosell) rallied behind players like Nassib or Wilson. Nobody came out of the 2013 quarterback class looking good.

That doesn’t mean Mariota and Bridgewater are going to sink quite as badly. But it goes to show what hype can do at this time of the year.

Mariota is a thoroughly modern day signal caller who moves around, can run the read-option and improvise. In many ways he looks like Colin Kaepernick. Yet Kaepernick has struggled this year in part because he’s unable to sit tight and go through his progressions. It’s the kind of thing Mariota isn’t asked to do at Oregon — he usually (from what I’ve seen) has a couple of reads at best and frequently has a run-pass option.

It’s argued the 49ers shouldn’t try to force Kaepernick to be something he’s not — but there’s a reason why they aren’t telling him to become a running quarterback. Sooner rather than later, he’d take a beating too many.

That’d be exactly the same for Mariota, especially as a potential top-10 pick. He too would probably have to become a little more traditional, even within the most creative offense.

Heck — even Chip Kelly has reverted to a conventional quarterback. And it’s working. You need some balance.

Mariota hasn’t got Kaepernick’s arm strength either. So while there’s definitely a lot of upside, there’s also a lot of unknown.

Bridgewater is much more orthodox. He’s at his best sitting in the pocket working within a pretty rigid structure. He distributes the ball nicely (although not always perfectly) and has the physical skills to drive the ball downfield when needed.

But unlike Mariota, he’s unlikely to avoid a heavy blitz with his legs, get out of the pocket with eyes locked downfield and make a fantastic, improvised play. His upside might always be limited — peaking at ‘pretty good’ instead of ‘outstanding’.

The great thing about Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and with hindsight — Russell Wilson — was their ability to combine the unorthodox with the traditional. All three players are athletic, have the big arm and make plays when things break down. And yet all three have shown at various times they can also be fairly conventional too when given time in the pocket.

I can see a situation where a team like Jacksonville, or Houston, or whoever, sits down at the end of the season and discusses Mariota and Bridgewater. And the conclusion they come to is they don’t know what to do with one and the other hasn’t got a big enough ceiling.

And then they see a guy like Jadeveon Clowney sitting there — or one of those many offensive tackles — and they decide to pass.

Because at the end of the day, the difference between Mariota/Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel/Derek Carr is minimal. Extremely minimal.

In fact you could make a case that Manziel and Carr are superior. Seriously.

Manziel makes more mistakes than Mariota, but he can also be a pure magician. That Alabama game earlier this year was the definitive Manziel performance. He kept his team alive to the very last second. He made plays that only he could make. And he had a couple of rancid and costly turnovers.

If I’m a coach willing to dabble with the unorthodox — I’d be so much more excited about the Manziel challenge than the Mariota version.

It really would be a privilege to take on Manziel — try to limit the negatives and bring out the unmatched creativity.

Of course character comes into it and teams will see soap opera headlines with one guy and quiet modesty with the other. But then you watch the Alabama game again…

Carr is much less hyped than Bridgewater, but why? Having watched both players, I think there’s a cigarette paper between the two on most of the key skills — accuracy, arm strength, mobility. I actually think Carr is better at going through his progressions. He’s also a much more engaging character, who will blow teams away during interviews.

The failure of his brother David in the NFL might linger in a few minds — but the younger Carr isn’t launching an expansion franchise. Well, not if he avoids Jacksonville (sorry, Gus…).

It’s still way too early to decipher where these prospects will fall on draft day, but I maintain a Clowney/Carr combo (if possible) is more appealing at this stage than Mariota and whoever else you can get at the top of round two.

In terms of the other quarterbacks — A.J. McCarron has a shot to make it but might only ever be another Andy Dalton at best. Zach Mettenberger’s play has really regressed in the last few weeks and it’s hard to see him being anything more than a mid-to-late rounder. And Tajh Boyd is another who’s falling — he just misses on accuracy a little too often.

Tight end trending upwards

I’m starting to really like Eric Ebron.

But then there’s a little voice somewhere offering words of caution.

Too often we get a tight end who flashes a few big plays. We assume that any player in the 250lbs+ bracket who can move is a fantastic athlete destined for greatness.

And it never really happens.

Then a guy like Jimmy Graham or Jordan Cameron comes along in the mid or late rounds. No real background or hype. Just freaks of nature. And they play as well as any tight end in the league (or in Graham’s case, as well as any receiver period).

The Cincinnati Bengals have been bitten by the curse a couple of times recently.

Jermaine Gresham looked like a superstar in the making in 2010. Big (6-5), strong, fast (4.66). He’d been really dynamic in college with Sam Bradford at Oklahoma.

In the NFL he’s been average.

He has only two career plays of 40+ yards and he’s averaging just over four touchdowns per season.

That’s not what was expected of the former #21 overall pick.

This year they went shopping in the same market and selected Tyler Eifert with yet another #21 overall pick.

Same speed (4.66), slightly less size (250 vs 265lbs) but pretty much the same height (6-6 vs 6-5). Eifert was the only tight end from the 2013 class who looked like a top athlete.

It’s unfair to judge a player during his rookie season, but so far Eifert has one touchdown and just 377 yards.

Not great to be fair.

What we perceive as unique athletes with amazing physical skills might actually just be pretty ordinary tight ends. There’s been some speculative and unconfirmed talk that the Seahawks liked Michael Egnew in 2012 — a tight end drafted in round three by Miami.

He ran a 4.62 at 6-5 and 255lbs. Looks interesting, right?

He has 39 total career yards in two seasons. He has zero touchdowns.

So while watching Eric Ebron sprint through the Pitt defense for 58 yards on Saturday, I start to imagine what a difference maker he could be at the next level. I start to wonder if he can match the high standards of a Graham or Gronkowski.

And then I think back to the numerous TE flops. The countless average pro’s. I look at the stat charts and see that only the following names are listed among the forty most productive receivers in the NFL: Jimmy Graham (#9), Antonio Gates (#20), Jordan Cameron (#25), Julius Thomas (#32), Tony Gonzalez (#36) and Vernon Davis (#38).

Six players. One hall of famer. Five genuine freaks of nature.

If I’m spending a first round pick or even an early second rounder on a tight end, they better have the potential to join that list.

So for now it’s a case of sitting and waiting to see just how well Ebron (and Jace Amaro, Austin Seferian-Jenkins) perform at the combine. Are they truly going to offer something unique?

Or will they just be another overblown, over-hyped big man who can run a bit.

A view on a cornerback I just haven’t seen

More than one person has asked for a comment on Oklahoma State cornerback Justin Gilbert. Unfortunately, I’ve had no access to any of their games this year.

That kind of makes it hard to form an opinion.

Judging cornerbacks without all-22 tape is notoriously difficult anyway. It’s why I don’t rely on the otherwise fantastic Draft Breakdown videos. They currently have five Gilbert videos available. But what can you learn when the corner is nearly always off-screen?

Very few corners play up at the line like Jimmy Smith did at Colorado. He was very easy to judge — physical, tall, fast. He was nearly always on the screen. For others it’s much harder.

So in this instance I’ll bow to the views of Tony Pauline, who had this to say about Gilbert on his blog today:

Gilbert is a player we’ve been high on for a while and a cornerback we graded as a second round pick before the season began. Sized well, he possesses next level ball skills and instincts. Gilbert shuts down opponents in man coverage but also affords potential in zone. During the Cowboys route over Texas the senior picked off two passes, one which he brought back 43 yards for a score. It was the second time this season he returned an interception for a score. Gilbert also adds the ability to impact games as a return specialist to his resume. The senior has all the makings to be a second day pick next May and eventually start in the NFL.

Top-15 prospects

This is based on what I’ve seen so far with a slight Seahawks bias. As with Gilbert, I can’t comment on players I’ve not had a chance to study properly. I’ve not included quarterbacks in the list.

This isn’t in any strict order either, although it’s fair to say the top three (Clowney, Robinson and Kouandjio) are my top three players viewed so far.

I would’ve included Dominique Easley (DT, Florida) but two serious knee injuries have almost certainly impacted his stock.

#1 Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
#2 Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)
#3 Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama)
#4 Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M)
#5 Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
#6 Re’Shede Hageman (DE, Minnesota)
#7 Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
#8 Antonio Richardson (T, Tennessee)
#9 Odell Beckham Jr (WR, LSU)
#10 Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame)
#11 Cedric Ogbuehi (T, Texas A&M)
#12 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
#13 Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson)
#14 Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
#15 Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)

Instant reaction: Seahawks head into bye at 10-1

Percy Harvin's first catch? A one handed grab on third down

This couldn’t have gone any better.

The Seahawks won with added style points. Nobody got seriously injured. And there were just enough minor quibbles to avoid complacency going into the bye.

There’s only one place to start tonight. Russell Wilson is a revelation.

The style and identity of Seattle’s offense will never give him the opportunity to have a 40-TD season. For that reason he’ll probably never be the NFL’s MVP.

To the Seahawks, he is paramount. He is exactly what they’ve been missing. Since forever.

Wilson is everything any team could ever want in a franchise quarterback. He’s a fantastic image for the team, he’s the perfect character off the field and he appears to command the respect of his team mates. On the field he’s mobile, accurate (deep throws, short throws), ruthless and productive with ample arm strength.

He’s the kind of guy that eternally keeps you in a game, whatever the deficit.

He can orchestrate the long, slow burning drives. He can put quick points on the board. He can hit the home run.

And he has the much less talked about quality of improvisation.

All the greats make plays that leave you speechless. They turn a negative down into a scoring down. They step out of the play call and make something happen.

Too many bog standard quarterbacks fail when things don’t go perfectly. They buckle. Wilson almost thrives in that environment.

The perfect example of this was the second passing touchdown — a little shovel pass to Lynch when everything else had been taken away. The perfect improvisation from the perfect improvisational quarterback.

You could hear all the sighs on the Minnesota sideline. All of them to a man were wishing any of their three quarterbacks were capable of doing that.

Seattle is lucky to have Russell Wilson. Enjoy it.

Elsewhere…

Marshawn Lynch had three touchdowns and made the best of what was available. The Vikings played well against the run. The only complaint? His ninth fumble since 11/11/12. It was recovered by Seattle — fortunately — and I appreciate a player like Lynch will fumble more due to his physical style. But nine in little over a year seems excessive.

Percy Harvin had five big plays right off the bat. On the first touchdown drive, his decoy slant inside took the safety away from Doug Baldwin — leading to a big sideline completion. Baldwin was left 1-on-1 with rookie Xavier Rhodes who’s struggled all year. It was no contest.

His second play drew a downfield pass interference — which negated a Seahawks penalty at the LOS and avoided a loss of yards. His first catch was a difficult one-handed grab on a third down conversion. Then we saw the kick off return to mid-field. And to begin the second half Minnesota gifted Seattle the ball on the 35 after kicking away from Harvin.

Perhaps the most satisfying thing was his ease of movement and speed. Even in limited snaps he had a big impact. It’ll be a long two weeks waiting to see what he can do against the Saints’ defense.

If this is Percy-lite, the full fat version will be loaded.

Doug Baldwin is a terrific player and not just a slot guy. He’s earned more attention in an explosive offense. The first touchdown pass was a prototypical Baldwin catch in the red zone. He’s more dynamic than people think, with all the skills you look for from a non-elite size/speed receiver — a competitive streak, hands and intelligence.

Funnily enough Seattle’s starting trio of receivers are 5-10 (Baldwin), 5-10 (Tate) and 5-11 (Harvin). All three players are 25-years-old and hitting their peaks. Who says you need a 6-3/6-4 guy?

Actually, watching the Broncos shows how a great ‘big’ receiver can really compliment an offense. See: Demaryius Thomas.

J.R. Sweezy and Breno Giacomini were beaten on an early down, which led to a Wilson sack. Twitter exploded with “replace Sweezy” comments. People love to complain when the offensive linemen make a mistake. What they don’t realise is — every down they aren’t complaining these guys are doing their jobs. And those plays far outweigh the errors.

For me, the entire line had a good day today. That was expected — for the first time in a long time every starter was out there in their intended positions. Seattle’s problem isn’t talent, it was depth with the two tackles out injured for such a long time.

Richard Sherman got beat twice early (PI and a TD). That’s obviously uncharacteristic for him. I suspect it could act as a positive though — it’ll weigh on his mind for the next two weeks before facing Drew Brees and the Saints.

A point on kick offs. Unless you have a great return man it appears the play has been eliminated from the game. So I don’t understand why Jermaine Kearse and Robert Turbin were again taking it out of the end zone and risking not getting back to the 20.

I know Kearse scored in pre-season. He also had a costly fumble against Tampa Bay.

Now Harvin — I get why he brings it out. He’s an explosive returner who makes things happen. For the other guys, I’d rather they just take a knee. Just my take.

There were too many penalties on third down today. On both sides of the ball. They can’t do that in the next two games (or any games, for that matter) and it’ll probably be a point of focus pre-Saints.

Christian Ponder is a terrible quarterback. It’s a shame it took until the fourth quarter to get an interception today. He made up for lost time by throwing a pick-six to Walter Thurmond shortly after Bobby Wagner’s interception. Wagner should’ve had a house-call before either.

Matt Cassell is also terrible. Poor Vikings.

Christine Michael — I have no idea how good or bad his pass protection is. But the guy is a better runner than Robert Turbin. So it must be pretty terrible. What other reason is there for keeping him on the sidelines? Let’s get him the ball a few more times.

For what it’s worth, Turbin is averaging 3.56 yards a carry this season from 48 carries.

Zach Miller led the team in receiving yards. Mr. Consistency quietly had another really good game.

The run defense pitched a shut out until Toby Gerhart — not Adrian Peterson — broke off a 32-yard run. Kudos for the way they’ve turned things around after a bad couple of outings against St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

Cliff Avril is quickly becoming Seattle’s best edge rusher. He now has 6.5 sacks for the year and was flying around the field today. While it might be difficult to keep Michael Bennett (who had his worst game of the season for me), Seahawks fans should count their blessings that Avril is signed up for another year based on the last few weeks.

Byron Maxwell did a very good job covering for Brandon Browner. He’s incredibly talented and will really benefit from time on the field.

Red Bryant also had a tremendous game today — frequently blowing up the offensive line and collapsing the pocket.

Seattle is on a bye next week before a testing and interesting final stretch of the regular season. New Orleans (8-2) and San Francisco (6-4) are up next, followed by a trip to the resurgent New York Giants (dangerous) and two home games within the division (also dangerous).

The Saints will be a huge test even at Century Link. Last year they came out flat in Miami after the bye. I doubt the players will get the full week off again.

But for the next couple of weeks Seahawks fans can sit back and enjoy the fact their team is #1 in the NFC.

The funny thing is, I think we almost take 10-1 for granted. Could you ever previously imagine a 10-1 Seahawks team? That’s the reality tonight.

Finally — PLEASE don’t forget this…

Saturday draft notes

Mel Kiper talked up Auburn left tackle Greg Robinson, and with good reason. Saturday’s game against Georgia was the first time I’d seen him — and he’s a big time talent. Like this class needed any more top tier tackles. Whether or not he declares as a redshirt sophomore remains to be seen, especially with Auburn’s stock trending upwards again. But if he’s assured of a top-ten grade, he’ll face a tough decision.

Robinson is the complete package. He was flawless in pass protection, was light on his feet for a big guy, he was opening up big holes in the running game. I want to see more, but his combination of skills, power and athleticism could put him top of the tackle class. Every now and again Kiper finds a real gem. He was the first guy to talk about Jason Pierre-Paul back in the day. Credit to him for putting Robinson’s name into the public domain.

Marqise Lee still looks like a superstar in the making. Sure, he’s not had the year he was hoping for. Yet against Stanford — while clearly not 100% — he put in a game-winning performance. Early on he made two incredible toe-tapping receptions on the right sideline — one to make a two point conversion. And despite having to constantly limp on and off the field, he dragged himself out there to make the crucial 4th down catch that led to USC’s winning field goal.

Tonight he showed he’s not just technically gifted — he’s also a warrior. And while we can linger on the fact he’s undersized and not an elite runner, whoever gets him next year is going to feel very satisfied. If you can find a receiver who loves the game, is technically sound and has a sparky, competitive personality — size doesn’t matter quite as much. He ended the night with six catches for 83 yards. For me Lee and Sammy Watkins remain the top two receivers eligible for 2014, with Odell Beckham Jr in third spot ahead of Mike Evans.

Lee and Watkins could still very easily be top 10-15 picks.

I came into the USC-Stanford game wondering what Trent Murphy is — and after another viewing kind of found the answer. A pretty basic athlete who doesn’t look like a top NFL prospect. Nice production, but it’s hard to imagine it transferring to the next level. As for Shayne Skov — I just don’t see a Seahawks linebacker there. He does well blitzing and he’s tough as nails. But Seattle’s penchant for speed and the fact they already have a talented middle linebacker limits the chances he ends up in the PNW.

David Yankey is growing on me though — I think he’s better than David DeCastro (who was overrated). He was moving people off the line without pulling, he opened up some nice lanes. On his last two performances I’m starting to warm to the idea he’s a possible first round talent. Stanford linemen still scare me, however.

Plays like this make me want to buy into Eric Ebron as a first round possibility. There aren’t many tight ends that can run a slant and take it up the middle for 58 yards while running away from defensive backs. That’s some athleticism there at 6-4, 245lbs. He did hurt his right shoulder in the game but returned after a moment on the sidelines. He ended with three catches for 73 yards in a 34-27 win for UNC over Pittsburgh.

Brandon Coleman’s stop-start season continued. A couple of weeks after failing to register a catch, he’s since got back into a groove. Rutgers were blown away by Cincinnati, but Coleman still made an impact — including this red zone touchdown. I’m not too concerned about stats because his upside is so high and his quarterback so poor. If only he’d just high point the football. That’s going to cost him. Shame. He recorded six catches for 77 yards and the score.

Two quarterbacks who might go earlier than people think next year — Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech) and Tom Savage (Pittsburgh). Thomas has mostly struggled for two years, but has actually put together some consistent form in the last couple of weeks. His size, arm strength and running ability will appeal to some teams. The bad tape will probably stop him going in the first round or two, but don’t be surprised if he lands in round three. Savage looked like a future pro when he started at Rutgers, and now with Pitt he’s put together a decent year. He’s worth stashing as a developmental prospect with upside.

Jace Amaro appeared to lose consciousness after a big hit in Texas Tech’s defeat to Baylor. He gets twelve days to recover before a big game against Texas. He managed two scores against the Bears and four catches for 55 yards.

Jadeveon Clowney’s foot injury flared up again in a victory over Florida. At one point he left the field in some pain. He’s going to need surgery in the off-season — which could jeopardise his ability to dominate at the combine. He has just two sacks this year. I still think he’ll be the number one pick, especially if he’s healthy for Indy. As much as I like Teddy Bridgewater — the hype has gone way over the top. Ditto Marcus Mariota. Neither is a franchise saviour for a team like Jacksonville. And there’s enough depth at the position to grab Clowney at #1 and go after a Derek Carr later on.

Saturday preview

I have access to two games this weekend. This is what I’ll be keeping an eye on…

Georgia at Auburn

Mel Kiper has been giving Auburn left tackle Greg Robinson rave reviews. “He’s one of the elite left tackles, his star is rising, his arrow is up. He keeps moving up and up and up and he’ll have a decision to make at the end of the year. We’ll see what his decision is, but he’s a heck of a football player.” This is already a loaded tackle class, and that might impact Robinson’s decision to declare or not. But at a time when we’re looking at possible offensive linemen for Seattle, I’ll be checking out Robinson for the first time tomorrow.

Dee Ford has seven sacks for the year as an undersized pass rusher. He’s listed at 6-2 and 240lbs. Has he got the length to fit as a mid-round LEO? This’ll be my second chance to watch Ford and I’m interested to see how he performs in another big game. He had two sacks in a win against Texas A&M earlier this year and looked very sharp. He’s quick off the snap and has plenty of speed, but he’s also a little one-dimensional and relies on athleticism. He struggled a bit against the run in the A&M game — not surprising given his size.

Damian Swann entered the year as a cornerback I had a lot of interest in. He’s probably been one of the biggest disappointments so far. Having said that, Georgia’s defense has generally looked like a disorganised mess. We saw last year that he was a playmaker — and he’ll get a shot at the next level. But any hopes of going in the first round have long since disappeared.

Stanford vs USC

Marqise Lee says he’s 100% healthy after struggling with a knee problem. This hasn’t been the year he was hoping for. Apart from the injuries, an inconsistent quarterback situation and a coaching shambles — Lee hasn’t been quite as brilliant as previous seasons. He’s made out of character mistakes (drops) this year. But the fact is he’s still a terrific football player and a big time playmaker. Lee’s doesn’t have the size or speed of an ideal #1 receiver, but he’s good enough to be a stat-machine in the right offense and a true game-changer. Let’s see if he can repair his stock late in the year. If he falls into the late first, get ready.

I have some issues with Stanford linemen. They’re well coached. They’re technically very good. But more often than not they get extra tackle or tight end help. Players like David Yankey (left guard) constantly pull and move. David DeCastro was exactly the same. You won’t see a lot of that at the next level, not with the regularity we see at Stanford. And for that reason it’s hard to judge these guys. It’s pro-style in description, but it’s not really. How many NFL teams use 8-9 linemen in their formations with regularity? How many left guards pull on a high percentage of their snaps?

It doesn’t mean you write a player off, it just means you have to spend so much extra time working them out. Yankey earned rave reviews against Oregon and did, admittedly, look as good as I’ve seen him. So it’s time for another viewing.

Shayne Skov struggled last year after returning from injury. He looked like he was getting back to his best last week. Was it a one-off? Or is he back on the NFL map? I really want to see if he has the kind of athleticism to play for the Seahawks. Simply put, they don’t draft slow linebackers any more. And anyone who’s going to stick with this group better be able to move.

Trent Murphy kind of reaffirmed against Oregon that while he’s having a productive year (10 sacks), he’s perhaps a little limited in terms of next level talent. What is he exactly? A five technique in the 3-4? A power end?

One final note. During the draft last year I put up an advert in the sidebar selling Percy Harvin jerseys. It’s still there. Many of you bought items using the link (many thanks for that) — and in turn I received a percentage of each sale.

Yesterday I donated every penny I received from that advert to the Phillipines Aid effort. I’m not doing it for praise. I don’t want to see any in the comments section. I want to ask if you’d also consider donating using this link or this one.

Derek Carr is better than people think

Is Derek Carr a first round pick? Maybe not.

Has he got a chance to make it in the NFL? I think so.

Every time I’ve watched him this year he’s impressed. I like his mobility in the pocket, his underrated arm strength, his accuracy and mechanics. Listen to him speak, and from a character stand point he ticks all the right boxes.

The improvement year-to-year at Fresno State is tangible. And if that continues at the next level, he has a shot.

His brother might be a former #1 overall flop, but he was tasked with the hardest job in football — leading an expansion franchise.

The younger Carr is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton as a senior at TCU. I think he’ll ultimately prove to be a better player than A.J. McCarron this year.

If I needed a quarterback and was sceptical of the options available at the top of round one, I’d make Carr my guy. And I think he deserves a lot more attention than he’s currently getting.

Take a look at his last performance against Wyoming and let me know what you think. Also check out his tight end Marcel Jensen (#89) — a 6-6, 260lbs monster who moves well. He’s also a senior. One to keep an eye on during the pre-draft work outs.

Ahead of Percy Harvin’s debut, a salute to the F.O.

The Percy Harvin trade still looks smart, despite his injury

They know what they’re doing in Seattle.

The front office, that is.

It doesn’t mean they’re perfect. They will make mistakes. But you can trust them with the big decisions.

You can’t say that about a lot of other teams.

As fans we love the idea of high picks. The more the better. It makes the build up to a draft more exciting. And sometimes — as we saw with Seattle in 2010 — it can really set your franchise up for years to come.

IF you hit on those picks.

The Seahawks thankfully did when they chose Russell Okung and Earl Thomas. Others haven’t been so fortunate.

It’s always celebrated when a team has more than one first rounder. The pundits usually give you an ‘A’ grade for sheer quality in numbers. In reality, it’s still a crap shoot.

We’ve seen a few high profile trades in recent years. None caused a stir quite like Percy Harvin’s move from Minnesota to Seattle.

Coincidentally, Harvin will make his Seahawks debut against the Vikings this Sunday. But how do we view that trade months later?

On the one hand, he’s yet to play any football after having hip surgery in pre-season. Fans have waited patiently to see Harvin feature for his new team. And the anticipation of his return couldn’t be greater this week.

But when he is back on the field, the Seahawks will know what they’re getting — one of the more dynamic playmakers in the NFL.

In return the Vikings got an extra first round selection in 2013, a seventh rounder plus a further pick next year.

I’m guessing the fans in Minnesota were pretty excited at the time. As good as he is, Harvin was on his way out — one way or another. Now they could spend a month or so plotting how to spend multiple first round picks on big name prospects.

I’m willing to bet that excitement grew when they were able to snag Sherrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and then Cordarrelle Patterson in round one (they traded up to get another first rounder to take Patterson).

I was never a fan of Rhodes’ and he’s struggled whenever I’ve watched Minnesota this year. Patterson is the same player he was at Tennessee — an explosive return man but an inconsistent receiver. Floyd has a lot of upside and for a time was being touted as a top-five pick. In reality the tape didn’t match the hype.

Still, they were all big names. They all carried perceived value. And the fans would’ve celebrated those picks.

Yet in reality the team has regressed badly this year. They moved out a proven performer and brought in three unknowns. At 2-7, their season is virtually over — just a year removed from a playoff berth.

It’s not all on Harvin’s absence — of course not. But when you make a high profile trade and acquire three first round prospects — going from 10-6 to 2-7 is unacceptable.

The ‘winner’ of this trade won’t be decided this weekend or even this season. If Harvin can’t stay healthy, the Seahawks can’t claim victory. But at least they know what they’re getting if he does get on the field. The three Vikings rookies might go on to be franchise cornerstones — but the way their team has struggled could lead to the firing of the GM and coaching staff that drafted them.

And then what?

The Vikings have been a disorganised mess this year — and it starts at the top. They’ve made a complete hash of the quarterback situation and undermined their coaches.

They’ve also potentially undermined the other five first round picks they’ve spent in two years. They’ve put their own futures on the line. Imagine being the guy who comes in to a team that spent six first round picks since 2011? Tell me you don’t spend every day wondering how much better you’d have done.

Basically, it’s the kind of thing that would never happen in Seattle (and I’m not trying to be smug here — honest).

Even so, I’m guessing if you log onto Google, you’ll find plenty of articles praising Rick Spielman and co. for that Harvin trade. Why? Purely because they ended up with more picks.

I’ve always been sceptical of a ‘more picks is best’ approach. Quality wins football games. And there’s more quality in proven players and higher draft picks.

I’d argue most front offices in the NFL are simply incapable of making the best use of multiple high picks. In fact they’d almost be better off going after veterans or trying to trade up. They can’t be trusted.

Fill a team with bad first round picks and the rebuild can be even tougher.

Would Tim Ruskell have made best use of the two 2010 picks that he — quite skilfully — acquired for the Seahawks? If the Aaron Curry pick is anything to go by, probably not.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider on the other hand, nailed it.

Returning to present day, even with Harvin’s injury the move looks like another Seattle steal. Who was available at #25 you’d rather have right now? I can’t think of anyone as we prepare for the big debut.

While acknowledging a Harvin trade was almost inevitable, has the same front office that drafted Christian Ponder with a top-15 pick made best use of their subsequent bounty? A 2-7 record and painful-to-watch football team suggests not.

There are other similar examples.

In 2011 the Falcons made an expensive yet shrewd move to get Julio Jones. Cleveland — believing more picks would be better for a big rebuild — moved from #6 overall into the 20’s. And with the three first round picks they eventually owned in 2011-12, they selected Phil Taylor, Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden.

The Mike Holmgren era in Cleveland didn’t last another draft.

It works both ways though. The somewhat overrated front office in Indianapolis (led by reigning GM of the year for the tough decision of drafting Andrew Luck, Ryan Grigson) sent their 2014 first round pick to the Browns for Richardson — a move which so far looks like a bad move.

Perhaps there’s some hope for Cleveland fans? Their current front office might know what they’re doing. Once again they have a bounty of picks. Once again they’ll try to be more like Seattle and less like their predecessors.

Indianapolis, perhaps trying to mimic the Seahawks when they traded for Marshawn Lynch, could pay for their aggressive approach.

It goes to show there’s no right or wrong way of doing things.

You just need the right guys pulling the strings.

Seattle has the right guys.

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