A couple of third down conversions.

Two connections on easy slants.

That’s the difference between a ‘world is falling’ diagnosis of Russell Wilson’s performance and the continued fawning of a blossoming talent.

He didn’t get close to turning the ball over during a rancid afternoon in Seattle. Wind, rain, cold. That wasn’t quarterback weather.

Seattle ran the ball well enough to win. The defense dominated while leaving just enough room to be even better next week.

Marshawn Lynch looked like a man on a mission.

You look at certain members of this team — Lynch, Richard Sherman, Red Bryant, Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor — and you get the impression they’d rather not wake up tomorrow if it meant losing this next game.

“Over my dead body”

And yet all people are doing is panicking about the quarterback.

Crisis, crisis, crisis.

It’s not just Wilson of course. We’re getting the usual, “Darrell Bevell sucks” garbage that always follows a less than inspiring offensive display. Bevell, like Wilson, is just one contributing factor in a large offensive power base.

You better believe Pete Carroll has a huge say in the game plan and in-game decision making. Tom Cable has input. The other ten players on the field have to execute too.

But no, better to complain about the quarterback who’s broken records in his first year as a starter — and the offensive coordinator who never gets any credit for his impossible growth (pardon the pun) in two brilliant seasons.

The Seahawks did what they needed to do on Saturday. They built up a strong lead (16-0), carried it into the fourth quarter and took the air out of the football.

Can Wilson play better? Absolutely.

Does he need to put up 350 yards, three touchdowns and be the entire offense next week?

Absolutely not.

The Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos scored 23, 23 and 24 points respectively over the weekend and won. Indianapolis scored 22 points and were blown away by New England because their quarterback had four interceptions.

Sometimes being conservative and not turning the ball over is enough.

The immediate reaction last night was to worry about Colin Kaepernick’s current form compared to Wilson’s.

In reality, it might be the quarterback who makes the least mistakes that gets the job done next week.

That’s not guaranteed. Either player might have the game of their lives for all we know. I doubt Wilson will get the chance, because the Seahawks are likely to lean on Lynch (and quite right too).

San Francisco might put the responsibility on a quarterback who is growing in confidence and looks sharp. Yet they tried to do that in their last two visits to Century Link and it backfired big time.

Wilson just needs to execute better, with a few different wrinkles incorporated into the game plan.

I don’t see a crisis.

It’s easy for us to sit here on the couch and say what those wrinkles should be. I want to see the tight ends used more, to chip and break and make up for the way teams are defending the bootleg right.

I’d like to see some of the old favourites from the last post-season dusted off. Use Michael Robinson in the red zone. He scored one touchdown against the Redskins, and was a nice decoy for a Wilson rushing score against the Falcons. Use Lynch as a checkdown option. Make Zach Miller the third down read.

Just because that’s what I think is best, doesn’t: a) make it correct or b) put me in a position where I’m qualified to suggest anything with any authority.

But there is one other aspect I do feel very confident about. Something that could lift the offense and make the passing game dangerous again.

Feed Percy Harvin.

Force the football to Percy.

First things first, we have to wait and see if he’s even eligible to play.

Doesn’t it just feel like groundhog day?

If he passes all the concussion tests this week and avoids having to sit out (the eight day break between these games should help) then it’s time to make him the focal point.

And it’s not even that difficult to achieve.

There isn’t another player like Harvin in the NFL, and it’s why Seattle paid so much money to bring him here. Unlike many other elite receivers, you’re not relying on height, physical domination or route running to force the production.

All you have to do is give him the football. Percy does the rest.

Whether it’s an end around, jet sweep, wide receiver screen, bubble screen or even a good old hand off or pitch — Harvin can make big plays.

He’s elusive, he’s dynamic and he has a little ‘beast mode’ after contact.

One play sticks in my mind from Saturday. Seattle set up to throw a screen to Harvin — and he had great blocking by two other receivers in front.

Wilson looked right at Harvin but for some reason didn’t throw it — instead tucking and running for a minimal loss (it went down as one of three ‘sacks’ on the day).

There was no obvious reason why he didn’t throw it. John Lynch on the call suggested it was a bad grip on a wet ball — a complete guess — and then praised Wilson for the decision (????).

We’ll never know why he didn’t throw it. There was a defender who read the play, but he didn’t seem in a position to stop it happening. The worst case scenario of making the pass was a first down. The best case was a massive touchdown run that would’ve seriously padded the passing stats and made everyone forget about any ‘crisis’.

I sense that the real reason Wilson didn’t throw it was he’d been told to play very conservatively and avoid turnovers. Any hint of a mistake and live to fight another down. That won’t be Bevell’s doing — that’ll be Carroll.

The presence of that defender just put a little doubt in his mind, so he bailed.

‘Better safe than sorry’ they might say.

I’d suggest a slightly different approach against the 49ers.

PC: “Russell, more of the same please. I want you to play safe, control the clock and avoid turnovers like your life depends on it. But by the way, feed the ball to Percy. Get it in his hands. If you’re going to take any small risks, do it throwing to our most dynamic player.”

Even if San Francisco does a first rate job defending Harvin when he has the ball, they’ll need to track him whenever he’s on the field. He’s a sensational decoy. The suggestion anyone actually can do a first rate job defending him seems fanciful.

It’s also harder to knock a guy out of a football game when he’s running straight at you with the football.

Throwing downfield leaves him defenseless. Throwing it to him in the backfield makes him dangerous.

Of course all this depends on Harvin making it to game day.

*Fingers crossed*

That’ll be an agonising wait in what already promises to be the longest week of the year.

Is he ready for a big workload? I think so. We saw enough flashes against New Orleans. And to quote Carroll, “If he’s playing, he’s playing.”

It just makes too much sense to feed him the ball if he does make it. If anything, it’s just another example of conservative football. You’re not even giving the defensive backs a chance to get their hands on it. You’re not giving the defensive linemen a chance to sack your quarterback. You’re taking the pressure off Wilson.

Straight from the snap you’re putting the ball in the hands of a guy who had nine catches for 89 yards last time he played the 49ers. He also had a nine yard rush and 74 return yards.

And his team won 24-13.

Seattle vs San Francisco... who makes the Super Bowl?

It seemed inevitable.

Seattle meets San Francisco for a place in the Super Bowl.

The two best teams in the NFC get a chance to settle who is #1.

And the Seahawks get an opportunity to play the hottest team in the league.

Here’s what they’re coming up against…

Colin Kaepernick
Whatever struggles he had earlier in the season, he’s peaking at the right time. Kaepernick looks confident, comfortable and for the first time this year he’s playing with a smile. He’s running well, he’s making plays. Just as Russell Wilson is hitting his first genuine cold streak, Kaepernick looks very sharp.

Boldin, Crabtree & Davis
Without doubt the catalyst behind Kaepernick’s form is the return of Michael Crabtree and the consistent production of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. That’s three reliable, big bodied receivers who are making plays in the post season. This is the one big difference between the two teams. Kaepernick doesn’t have to be overly precise with these guys. They are a mismatch nightmare and Seattle needs to get Wilson a big target next season.

Defensive line/linebackers are dominating
The 49ers don’t have a great secondary, but they’re able to flood coverage because their four and five man rush is one of the best in the league. Throw in the fact they have two brilliant inside linebackers and it’s a scary group.

Frank Gore
He’s getting old — and his impact in a 60-minute game is diminishing. Yet somehow, he seems to have at least one huge play every week. His +50 yard run beat the Seahawks at Candlestick. A similar effort today finished off the Panthers.

The way the 49ers handled Carolina today was very impressive. The Panthers took a 10-6 lead that probably should’ve been 14-6 after two failed goal line attempts. Even so, Cam Newton was rolling in the first half and had all the momentum.

It was pretty much one way traffic.

Then San Francisco ended the half with a long scoring drive out of nowhere, and started the second with a three-and-out on defense and another long scoring drive.

Game changed, game over.

This off the back of having to go and play a tough game in Green Bay last week.

But before we forfeit the game and doth our caps to the Niners, here’s what the Seahawks can feel happy about…

– Marshawn Lynch ran very well against the Saints and has consistently played well against the 49ers. He will be crucial next weekend, especially if Wilson can’t get out of his little funk.

– San Francisco were a hot team last time they visited Seattle. They’d just destroyed the Packers, with Kaepernick throwing it around to the tune of career best passing numbers. That streak lasted one week, because he was shut down at Century Link — throwing three interceptions in the process.

– As good as San Francisco’s front four is, the Seahawks still made enough plays last time with Paul McQuistan playing left tackle.

– In the recent meeting between the two teams, the 49ers won by two points playing their tails off. They might be able to replicate that intensity with a Super Bowl on the line, but it really took a titanic effort to win by such a small margin.

– Seattle’s defense is playing superbly. They gave up some yardage late on against the Saints, but for the most part did a great job limiting an elite quarterback (Drew Brees) and a collection of excellent receivers. The 49ers are a tougher and superior road opponent, but the defense will be up for this one.

– A big part of the conservative approach on offense yesterday was the 16-0 scoreline. Taking the air out of the ball made a lot of sense. They were a conversion or two from coasting along to a predictable victory and possibly shutting out the Saints. I’m not sure a week of panic is required.

Overall I’d break it down like this….

Passing game edge? San Francisco — Kaepernick is playing very well, Wilson is on a tough run.

Running game edge? Seattle — Lynch is looking sharp again but this one’s close.

Pass rush edge? Seattle can rush, but San Francisco’s front seven is scary.

Coverage edge? Seattle’s secondary is the best in the NFL.

Seattle needs to help Wilson find a rhythm.

Teams are taking away the bootleg right, they’ve got a week to combat that. Short slants over the middle didn’t work this week — in part due to drops, but also due to inaccurate throws.

I think they have to get the tight ends involved. They have to go back to taking some shots downfield — even if it didn’t go to plan against Arizona.

Patience is also required. The 49ers are so effective rushing with four or five, they HAVE to establish the run first. Even if it is frustrating at times. There’s no alternative. They need to try and commit more defenders into the box to attack the secondary.

If they can get Lynch going, they need to be prepared to take some shots, be creative, get the tight ends downfield.

It’s going to be a long week waiting for next Sunday.

I wouldn’t expect a repeat of the last two meetings in Seattle. It’ll be a war this time — there’s too much at stake for a blow out.

A big drive in the fourth quarter or a key pass by one of the young quarterbacks could be the difference. It’ll be fine margins.

The loser is going to face the longest off-season imaginable. The winner will spend two weeks on cloud nine with a shot at immortality.

Marshawn Lynch dragged Seattle's offense to victory

Well, nobody said it’d be easy.

For three quarters, it kind of was.

But that fourth quarter…. dragged from the depths of hell…. brought to earth to torture Seahawks fans.

A great big poke in the eye, lasting about 40 minutes.

Would the top seed in the NFC choke?

They just about held their nerve.

Just.

When you break it down, Seattle was comfortable for a lot of the game and it was unrealistic to expect the Saints to go quietly into the off-season.

The Seahawks needed to rally and got the job done. Any criticism here is intended to be constructive with absolute appreciation for what this team achieved today.

Let’s start at the top.

One of the big reasons the Saints put themselves in a hole is the way they tried too hard to be something they’re not.

Jimmy Graham jawed at the defense in pre-game, before a lousy one-catch, wet fart of a performance.

They tried to act tough. Prove to Seattle they weren’t going to be a push over. That they could play this brand of football.

And yet it’s when they finally put the ball in Drew Brees’ hands and asked him to make plays, that they came surprisingly close to snatching victory from a losing position.

This is one advantage Seattle has. They know what they are, and they never try to be anything else. They don’t waste time with gimmicks during the week. They get on with the job.

The Saints tried to be something they’re not. That’s a big no-no for teams like San Francisco and the Seahawks.

New Orleans are a finesse passing team who make big plays with an elite quarterback. That formula has won them a Super Bowl.

Today they should’ve just been the Saints.

I know the weather was shocking and not conducive to passing football early on. But even so — it took them an age to get Brees into a rhythm.

Their best chance to win today was a fantastic performance by the quarterback. They fought that too much.

Having said all that, you could argue New Orleans only had a shot because Seattle’s offense was frustratingly ineffective.

Marshawn Lynch ran well. But he can’t do it alone. The passing game is struggling and it’s a concern.

Russell Wilson — for whatever reason — has become an edgy, inaccurate quarterback who gets flustered too easily.

Against San Francisco, New York, Arizona and St. Louis — it was understandable. All four teams — including the Giants — were playing good defense. Three of those teams sport elite units.

Wilson struggling a little wasn’t a shock.

Yet when he played the Saints in week 13, he was sublime. He gashed them. Today it was a totally different story.

On basic inside slants he was all over the place. Throwing behind, throwing wide. For what is such a high percentage play, Wilson made it look difficult.

At 16-8 and with the Seahawks trying to respond after New Orleans’ first score — he missed a wide open Doug Baldwin downfield and tried to run instead, coming up a yard short on third down.

He has to make that play. Has to.

Nobody should overreact and Wilson is a terrific quarterback, but he’s picking a bad time to have a cold streak.

At least when he needed a big play to Doug Baldwin, he made it on the late third down.

Good throw, better catch.

I also took something else out of today. And you know I’m serious, because I’m putting it in caps.

SEATTLE NEEDS A BIG, TALL RECEIVER WHO MAKES PLAYS ON THIRD DOWN AND IN THE RED ZONE

This is the teams #1 need by a country mile. It was never more evident today.

In the red zone series where Harvin suffered his game-ending injury, Wilson tried to throw twice. This is classic fade territory. Drop back, throw it into the corner and get your big target to try and make a play.

The only thing is, there’s no receiver on the field bigger than 6-1 and 209lbs.

So instead, Wilson is scrambling around hoping someone gets open.

Nobody did.

It wasn’t just the red zone. The Seahawks had an absolute shocker on third down again, going 5/14.

How good would it be to have a guy with some size in there? Throw it up. Let him go after it. Watching Marques Colston make a couple of conversions late on was tough. The Seahawks need a body like that on offense.

The passing game is becoming very precise, when it’s set up to be explosive.

Wilson ended with 9/18 passing and 103 yards. It didn’t cost the team and Lynch ran the ball well enough to put some points on the board. Next week, however, I suspect he’ll have to do more with the weapons he has.

I still believe he’s a better quarterback than Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton. But those two, especially Kaepernick, are making plays at the moment.

Wilson doesn’t take chances like Kaepernick did last week. He gave Green Bay a couple of big opportunities, including a dropped pick-six late on. He responded well, stepping up when it mattered and winning the game on the road.

It helps having Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis to throw to. It’s the one area San Francisco is far superior to the Seahawks.

Wilson needs a receiver like any of that trio.

It’s perhaps reassuring that no quarterback like Brees is still around in the NFC. Even on what was mainly an off-night, he can put up 300 yards in a flash. I doubt we see that next week.

He also had a bit of fortune and that has to be remembered.

Kam Chancellor dropped one easy pick. Earl Thomas collided with Byron Maxwell on another should-be interception that ended up in a 52-yard fluke catch-and-run for Robert Meachem.

He had a chance to tie with seconds remaining only after Golden Tate muffed an onside kick (how are the Saints 3/3 on those by the way??).

It should’ve never got as far as it did. So Seattle must’ve done something right (and they did).

All that really matters is they’re one game away from the Super Bowl.

And despite some of the issues today — Marshawn Lynch is back to playing like an elite runner and the defense continues to be legit.

Some other notes:

– The offensive line played very well and made some huge blocks in the run game. Michael Bowie looked sharp at left guard. Is he the future at left guard? Breno Giacomini had a big day.

– James Carpenter being a healthy scratch was interesting. If he’s cut in the off-season, Seattle could make enough of a saving to keep Giacomini. That could be more important if Bowie’s future is at guard.

– Did I mention Seattle should draft a big receiver? Oh I did?

– Percy Harvin is a legendary flirt. Today was so tantalising. He took a sweep for nine yards and exploded. He made a great leaping catch to convert a third down. But he’s an elite playmaker in a body made of bone china. Seattle lacked any kind of spark when he left the game.

– Sacks can be a phony statistic. According to the box score, New Orleans sacked Russell Wilson three times. From memory, all three were scrambling runs that came up barely short of the line of scrimmage. It’s one of the main reasons why we can’t pay too much attention to stat-based ranking systems.

– What was up with the read option today? Wilson can’t keep handing it off to Lynch or teams won’t buy it. The threat of the quarterback keeping it has to exist for it to work. Maybe New Orleans played it brilliantly this time, I’ll have to watch it again.

– I didn’t see a hold on the big Robert Turbin run by any of the offensive linemen. Some people say Luke Willson held, but the ref’s put in on Giacomini who actually had a terrific block to seal the edge.

– The tight ends were quiet today. Zach Miller had one catch for 11-yards. Neither he or Willson were a big part of the passing game it seemed.

– The pass rush came close to getting five sacks today. Instead they recorded one. On one play Brees eluded a sack by virtually standing still. On other occasions it seemed like he was a finger nail away from being tackled. Just one of those days, I guess.

– The run defense appeared to have some issues against basic formations like 22 personnel. The Saints did a great job blocking the edge and regularly got chunks of yardage. That’s an area for work this week. Seattle’s run defense had been good for the last few weeks.

– Bobby Wagner, apart from a needless 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, had an insane game.

– There were two moments where you kind of thought ‘typical Seattle sports’. The fluke Meachem grab and the onside kick. It’d be nice not to have any of those moments next week.

Whether it’s Carolina or San Francisco in the NFC Championship game, it’ll be a war. Two teams who will play tough defense and run the ball.

Seattle is a home game away from the Super Bowl, a position they’ve only been in once before.

And it doesn’t matter how they got to that position.

The only thing that matters is they’re there.

24 hours. #NOvsSEA #NFLPlayoffs

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) January 10, 2014

How big is this opportunity?

Real big.

And extremely rare.

The Philadelphia Eagles were the NFC’s #1 seed for three consecutive seasons between 2002 and 2004.

In the nine seasons that followed, no team has ever repeated as #1.

Home field advantage is not common. As good as the Seahawks are, it’ll be incredibly difficult to repeat what happened this year.

Jim Harbaugh has been with the Niners for three seasons. They’ve gone 13-3, 11-4-1 and 12-4 and never been the #1 seed.

That’s crazy.

Winning the NFC West is not going to get any easier. With each team getting gradually stronger, it’s going to become harder and harder to put together a 12-14 win season.

That’s why this is such a rare opportunity.

It’s taken eight years for the Seahawks to get back to top spot. To be in a position where they’re two home games away from the Super Bowl.

That is a dream scenario for this team. And now it’s reality.

Making the most of it? That’s the hard part.

Seattle has already beaten the three remaining NFC playoff teams.

They defeated tomorrow’s opponents, New Orleans, handsomely in week 13. They demolished San Francisco in week 2. They ground out a tough road win in Carolina to open the season — a victory that’s often overlooked.

All they have to do is play two solid games to make it to the big one. Limit the mistakes. Hit some big plays. Run the football. Play good defense.

The things they’ve done most weeks for the last two years.

If it only it were that simple.

At a time when the city’s baseball team consistently underwhelms and the basketball team is playing in Oklahoma — Paul Allen, Pete Carroll, John Schneider, this team and the rest of the staff have given people a reason to believe.

Today Seattle is filled with Seahawks jersey’s, flags bearing 12. Nobody is working. Everybody is talking about football.

What an opportunity.

What a chance to provide a lifetime of memories.

And all they have to do is play two solid home games, for a shot at immortality.

If only it were that simple.

The Saints are a good football team. They have an elite quarterback. And while they haven’t travelled particularly well in recent weeks, they are a very dangerous opponent.

Maybe even Seattle’s most dangerous opponent.

San Francisco and Carolina play extremely good defense. They run the ball. They have playmaking quarterbacks who are a real threat on the move.

But Colin Kaepernick has struggled badly in his two starts at Century Link. He hasn’t been able to get into a rhythm, he’s forced passes, the atmosphere has knocked off his timing and he’s made mistakes.

I suspect Cam Newton will find it equally as tough. He shares some of Kaepernick’s qualities, but also some of his weaknesses.

Poise isn’t necessarily a characteristic you’d pin on either player. Not that they haven’t stepped up in some big games this year — because they have.

Yet in Seattle, you have to take it to another level.

Drew Brees has been in these types of situations. He’s played — and won — in this stadium. His victory here, funnily enough, was against the odds on a winless Saints team.

And while New Orleans’ defense isn’t scary in the slightest, the offense can score points.

The Seahawks don’t want this to be a shoot out. If they can control the scoring, they’ll fancy their chances to out-last their opponent. If the Saints ask a few questions by scoring regularly, it could be too close for comfort.

Brees is the x-factor here.

He has the potential to avoid getting flustered, to make key plays, to fight through the noise.

He is dangerous.

And yet it’s still on the Seahawks to deliver.

If they play a good game on defense, Brees will struggle to avoid throwing another two picks — just like he has in New Orleans’ last three road games.

They should do a better job than the Eagles against the Saints run game.

The offense needs to be creative. I think New Orleans will — again — try to shut down the run. They limited Marshawn Lynch to under 50-yards last time. If that happens again, Wilson has to prove he’s as good as we all believe.

If the Seahawks play their brand of football, do their jobs — that should be enough.

And again… if only it were that simple.

Home field advantage in the NFC is rare.

Here’s the opportunity.

Go take it.

Florida State’s Kelvin Benjamin officially declared for the draft today.

It’s not a total surprise. He had to re-sit two grades in school and will be a 23-year-old rookie. Time wasn’t on his side.

Having also won a National Championship this year, there was little reason to return to FSU.

We’ve talked a lot about Benjamin. Physically he’s incredible — 6-5, 235lbs and moves well for his size. It’s no wonder he was reportedly given a first round grade by the draft committee.

Yet there are major concerns.

Kelvin Benjamin concedes he has worked on and will continue to work on focus and consistency as well as maturity.

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 10, 2014

The consistency part is a big one.

At times he looks great — ploughing through tackles, breaking off big plays and looking every bit a future #1 receiver.

But for every eye-catching touchdown — there’s a horrendous drop. A lousy effort. A sloppy route or a mental error.

This is the kind of thing I’m talking about…

Receiver is one of the positions in this game where you can’t afford to coast. You need to be switched on every play.

I’ll say it again — you need to be pissed off for greatness.

That’s where Benjamin falls short.

So we can crown him as a high pick for the athletic upside, but we need to counter that with the improvements he has to make to be a great player at the next level.

For me he’s a late first round pick or second round selection.

If he is a first rounder, he could be one of many.

Dan Pompei noted the following after discovering the news on Benjamin:

Potential first-round picks (7): Watkins, Lee, Evans, Allen Robinson of Penn State, Brandon Coleman of Rutgers, Brandin Cooks of Oregon State.

It isn’t likely that all six, plus Benjamin now that he has declared, will go in the first. But each of them merits consideration according to at least one NFL front-office man. Watkins figures to go first in the top 10. Lee and Evans won’t be far behind. One high-ranking front-office man has Robinson pegged to go somewhere in the 15-20 range. Coleman is expected to go later in the first, said a national scout, and Cooks is a borderline first- or second-round prospect.

Personally I’d also throw Odell Beckham Jr into the first round mix (Pompei has him in round two).

Allen Robinson is a tough one to work out considering his role at Penn State where he was mostly used as a YAC specialist. Yet has the height and speed to be a more rounded receiver.

It’s reassuring to see others view Brandon Coleman the same way I do. If he is touted as a late first rounder, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be on Seattle’s radar.

Again — we need to consider the issues within the Rutgers offense before judging him too harshly.

Not many people can do what Coleman can do. With some technical coaching and a better quarterback, he could easily be another Josh Gordon.

Yes — he can make more of his height. He needs to do a better job of high pointing the football. This is teachable, though. What isn’t teachable is a 6-6, 220lbs receiver running away from defensive backs.

It’s a good year to go after after a wide out. And as things stand, that could be the best option for Seattle.

There’s going to be plenty of options.

Perhaps increasing the likelihood of a first round receiver is the diminishing number of offensive tackles on the market. Cameron Erving, La’el Collins and Cedric Ogbuehi all announced they wouldn’t be turning pro in 2014.

This should have a positive impact on players like Zach Martin and Antonio Richardson.

We’ll have the usual rush on offensive tackles early. But there are a lot of teams later on who need offensive linemen too (in particular Miami and Arizona). With the Seahawks guaranteed to pick between #28-32 overall, a lot of the top prospects will be long gone.

Perhaps this increases Seattle’s desire to keep Breno Giacomini? It’d take some doing, considering his +$4m salary in 2013. If he’s willing to compromise ($2.5-3m?), and they make savings elsewhere, they can make this a much less pressing concern.

I’ve watched eight videos on Amaro now. It’s taken some time, but I’m starting to get a feel for what he’s about.

He kind of came from nowhere.

Last season he had 25 catches for 409 yards. This year he exploded for 106 grabs, 1352 yards and seven touchdowns. For a time he led the NCAA for receiving yards and finished at #11 overall. Eric Ebron was the only other tight end to crack the top 80 (#49).

For starters he’s not an incredible athlete who becomes an impossible mismatch. Unlike Ebron, he’s not going to take a short pass and run it 60-yards.

So yeah, Amaro is not the next Jimmy Graham/Jordan Cameron.

Jordan Reed ran a 4.72 at last years combine and Zach Ertz a 4.76. I have a hard time imagining Amaro topping that. In fact he could be in the 4.8’s like Gavin Escobar — who has a very similar frame but is probably a few pounds lighter.

He looks every bit a 260-265lbs player. He’s a big unit and might be able to improve his conditioning. I’d want to see if he can drop a few pounds personally.

Yet despite his size, Amaro has terrific body control. This is his biggest asset. He’ll work a defensive back or linebacker with smart route running — and he always seems to put himself in the best position to make a catch.

Against Kansas he pretty much sold the same play three times — a little corner route to the right side. Every single time he created 2-3 yards of separation purely on his control and polish as a route runner.

There are so many examples on tape where he just gets position, shields the defender and then it’s an easy throw and conversion.

He’s not a flawless hands catcher, but he’s solid. When you need a conversion on 3rd and 5, he’ll run a short route — get open — and he’ll make the play. He’s fairly consistent catching over the middle in traffic.

There’s value there. For teams that don’t have a massive receiver on the outside or a reliable slot guy, a good tight end who gets open underneath or on a quick throw will help you extend drives. Amaro did this regularly for Texas Tech in 2013.

I think he has better red zone qualities than we see in the college tape. His ability to get open in tight spots will be a real problem for defenses close in. Even if he doesn’t emulate his monster yardage stats at the next level, I suspect he’ll be a regular scorer in the right offense.

I’d love to see him getting some back shoulder fades, some little outside whips and quick hitting inside slants.

Having said that, the physical limitations put me off a little bit if we’re talking about the first round and in particular for the Seahawks.

In that range I want a tight end I can line up outside as a pure receiver and win jump balls. I want a player who runs down the seam and can take a catch 15-20 yards before he’s brought down.

Essentially, I want something akin to the Gronk if I’m going all-in with a first rounder.

A lot of average tight ends have entered the league because they’re a bit bigger and run a 4.6. I want a difference maker. A special player.

Ebron has as much potential as any college tight end in recent years and should be a top-20 pick as a consequence. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has flashed Gronk-like talent and if he really rams home the conditioning side, he can be that type of player.

Amaro, funnily enough, reminds me more of Zach Miller. Similar body, similar pass catcher. Amaro will need to work on his blocking but all young tight ends do.

There is tape of him running downfield, breaking tackles and making plays. West Virginia had a torrid time against him but their defense has been suspect for a while. When he does make a big gain he’s more of a 20-yard catcher — just slipping into the secondary and getting into a nice zone.

Again, he’s a savvy route runner and knows how to find open space.

It’ll be interesting to see how he compares to Ebron and ASJ athletically — to see if I’m right and if they mark up better. There are teams in the back end of the first round who will be considering drafting a tight end. He might be better placed as an early second round selection.

Escobar was the 15th pick in round two last year but lacked Amaro’s control, consistent catching ability and conversion rate on 2nd/3rd down. They’re similar athletically, but it’s probably good for 10-15 slots on draft day that he’s already a much more reliable target.

Personally I’d rather swing for the fences. I suspect ASJ is a more dynamic athlete than people realise and he’ll be in the best shape of his life for the combine. Ebron will be long gone by Seattle’s pick.

If they decide to save money on Zach Miller’s contract and go for a tight end in the first frame — I’d lean towards going after Seferian-Jenkins before Amaro. Get Tom Cable working on his blocking — get him in the best possible shape. You could end up with an excellent all-round tight end who doesn’t just do a good job in protection, but also makes big plays too — including some lined up outside.

Having said all that — and we’ve talked a lot about tight ends this week — I still think it’d be more beneficial to pick up a big, tall receiver who can eventually develop into a true #1.

It’s all about what’s on the board. If there simply aren’t any receivers who fit that description worthy of a first round grade, you have to look at other options that can have a similar impact.

Time permitting, I’m going to put out another mock tomorrow. And it’s starting to look like an interesting top ten this year.

More than one team is going to be pining for Johnny Manziel. Some will prefer the ‘safer’ bet of Teddy Bridgewater — while others will find some appeal in Blake Bortles’ physical upside.

Manziel is the real playmaker. The exciting prodigy who defies convention and may just have enough magic to lift a perennial struggler.

It’s going to be tough to work out which might see him that way. Some of the potential buyers are in the midst of appointing new coaches. The hires in Cleveland, Minnesota and Tennessee will give us a better indication of who might be willing to think outside of the box.

Bill O’Brien in Houston has roots within an orthodox passing offense and might prefer a more traditional pocket passer. Lovie Smith going to Tampa Bay should put the focus on defense and prove good news for Mike Glennon (who really deserves a shot to keep his starting role).

Cleveland is the one to monitor the closest. Their reported interest in Josh McDaniel is interesting. He has the same roots as O’Brien — yet when given the opportunity to draft his guy in Denver, he chose Tim Tebow.

Clearly he isn’t afraid of a challenge.

You can kind of see him embracing the idea of Manziel. The Browns — like the Raiders — need a lift. Whether that’s by taking a gamble on a talented yet flawed player remains to be seen.

They both need something — or someone — to believe in.

And it’s so enticing to consider the possibility of Manziel scrambling around and throwing downfield to Josh Gordon.

I’m almost certain he’ll go in the top ten — probably even the top five. Cleveland is just one possible home.

How the other two QB’s fit in will also be of some interest. Bridgewater will have his admirers — but is he more Sam Bradford than Andrew Luck or Cam Newton?

Teams who have suffered through poor quarterback play recently might appreciate a steady eddie, even if others favour the X-Factor of Manziel.

I think Bridgewater, more than Manziel or Bortles, needs to land on a team with a structure. He isn’t necessarily the type of guy to lift a franchise on his own — but like Alex Smith in Kansas City — he might be the glue that brings everything together.

That could appeal to the Texans, who have plenty of talent on offense (Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, DeAndre Hopkins).

I need to spend more time on Bortles (it’s not a big priority right now — Seattle has a QB). It’s hard not to admire his physical upside — the height, arm and mobility. But he also shows some of the same mental errors we see with Ryan Tannehill — limited reads, throwing blind, poor decisions and forcing too many throws.

Tannehill is a bit overrated for me. Mike Sherman — his former college coach and recently fired offensive coordinator — has taken a lot of the blame. It hasn’t helped playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Yet the thought of Tannehill leading a team into a deep playoff run still seems fanciful.

He went #8 overall in 2012 and that seems like the kind of range Bortles will go. Teams are willing to invest in potential and Bortles passes the eye test. He’ll no doubt have a great off-season. And working in his favour will be the lack of options after he’s off the board.

I know a lot of people want to force Derek Carr into the first round, but I just don’t see it.

If the top three QB’s go in the top ten, that might be it for round one. Bortles might be seen as a last chance for some teams to come away with a quarterback they can build around.

Auburn’s brilliant offensive tackle Greg Robinson declared today. He’s better than all three of the offensive tackles who went in the top five a year ago. This year he could go as high as #2. He’s a stud — pure and simple. And a better overall prospect than Jake Matthews — who also seems assured of a place in the top ten.

It’s a deep year for offensive tackles and while it remains a premium position, we’re likely to see plenty going off the board early. Don’t rule out Cyrus Kouandjio as a top ten pick, even if he struggled in the Sugar Bowl. Tennessee’s Antonio Richardson is another player who could rise quickly.

We all know about Jadeveon Clowney — and he could be an option to go #1 overall if Houston finds a quarterback elsewhere.

Anthony Barr gets a lot of praise — he’s a great athlete but needs to make several technical improvements to warrant such a high investment. It still seems likely he’ll go early — there are some similarities to Dion Jordan, who was the #3 pick last year.

Then you have the top-tier receivers — and this is a great class as we’ve discussed. We’ll have to see if Mike Evans and Marqise Lee can crack the top-ten — but Sammy Watkins looks like a lock to go that early.

Possible top-ten players in the 2014 draft:

Jadeveon Clowney
Johnny Manziel
Greg Robinson
Sammy Watkins
Anthony Barr
Jake Matthews
Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles
Mike Evans
Marqise Lee

With the Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles and Packers exiting the post season, the 2014 draft order is now confirmed from picks 1-24.

A dramatic weekend also raised a number of questions for the teams involved.

Andy Dalton had another playoff horror show against San Diego — enduring a second half meltdown to turn the ball over three times. He’s now 0-3 in the post season.

The Bengals have an uber talented team with pretty much everything you’d want in a contender. Great defense, elite playmakers on offense, good offensive line.

They could be better at corner — and wasted a pick on the overrated Dre Kirkpatrick in 2012. But that’s not holding them back.

Dalton is.

Seattle dodged a bullet in 2011 if you believe the rumours that John Schneider had a lot of interest in drafting him at #25, only to be overruled by Pete Carroll.

He has purple patches in a season — but they’re usually followed by calamitous reality checks.

Today should be the biggest reality check of them all. Dalton isn’t good enough to lead the Bengals to the Championship they’re capable of winning.

Really they should be looking for an alternative in the 2014 draft. This is the final year of his rookie deal — and you really don’t want to be paying him an inflated contract right now. Draft a little competition for him in round 2/3 and let him fight for a future. Hey, I’d consider taking a quarterback in round one if the right player was there.

I doubt it even gets considered. The Bengals ownership give off a satisfied vibe. Contending is enough, as long as they make a profit. They never push the boat out. Today actually gives them some leverage to low-ball Dalton and tie him up for another 3-4 years.

If that happens, Cincinnati will always be nearly men. Expect them to target a cornerback at #24 like Justin Gilbert or Darqueze Dennard.

The Chiefs face a slightly different conundrum.

Alex Smith is solid if unspectacular and he can lead an offense. But he’s also approaching 30 and due another contract after the 2014 season.

Is it time for Kansas City to plan ahead? Or do they re-sign Smith now and make him their guy for the next few years?

They have enough talent across the board to be really competitive as we’ve seen this season. But they’re also in a window and fighting in a division that contains Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.

I don’t think they’ll use the #23 pick on a QB this year, but it might be worth adding one in the middle rounds so there’s some long term thinking in place. I can definitely see them looking at a tight end in round one — such as Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Jace Amaro.

The Eagles just need to concentrate on their defense. There’s too many stop gaps across the board.

Whether it’s a pass rusher off the edge, a corner or a safety — the Eagles have to go defense at #22. I like Virginia defensive end/tackle Brent Urban as an under-the-radar option for Philly. Chip Kelly loves length and athleticism on defense and Urban ticks all the right boxes. They really need to find a safety from somewhere, though.

Green Bay fans probably wish they could draft a new defensive coordinator.

While Aaron Rodgers could use better protection and maybe another receiver — the Packers need to take some of the strain off Rodgers and the offense.

Getting some speed at linebacker and safety would be a major help. But it’ll all go to waste if they keep Dom Caper’s outdated schemes.

C.J. Mosley would be a great choice for the Pack if he’s around at #21.

The Seahawks cannot pick any higher than #28 overall. Even if both Seattle and Denver lose next week, the Broncos get the #27 selection due to an easier strength of schedule.

There were also some interesting declarations today. Blake Bortles (QB, UFC) is turning pro, along with Oregon wide out De’Anthony Thomas. Sammy Watkins made it official today and tight end Jace Amaro is heading for the NFL.

Mocking the Draft has a nice tracker to see who’s declared so far.

We’re going to see more and more underclassmen turning pro due to the new CBA. It’s become a race to get a second contract, because the rookie deals are nowhere near what they used to be. The sooner you get started, the sooner you get paid.

More talent entering the draft helps the Seahawks, of course, given they’ll be drafting so late in each round.

So here’s what the first frame looks like so far:

1. Houston Texans
2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Oakland Raiders
6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Detroit Lions
11. Tennessee Titans
12. New York Giants
13. St. Louis Rams
14. Chicago Bears
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16 or 17. Baltimore Ravens
16 or 17. Dallas Cowboys
18. New York Jets
19. Miami Dolphins
20. Arizona Cardinals
21. Green Bay Packers
22. Philadelphia Eagles
23. Kansas City Chiefs
24. Cincinnati Bengals