Every draft has great players that nobody talks about. Perhaps Harrison is one of them.

In the comments from the Justin Hunter topic yesterday, one name seemed to dominate the conversation:  Mark Harrison.  The predominant thought was that Seattle didn’t need to reach for Justin Hunter in round one if they could get a prospect like Mark Harrison much later.  I hadn’t watched much of Harrison yet, so I figured I’d explore this topic and share my thoughts.

Harrison stands 6’3″ at 231 pounds and ran a 4.46 forty at the combine.  There aren’t very many NFL receivers that play at 6’3″ 230, and even fewer that run fast while doing it.  Andre Johnson is one of the very few.  He’s 6’3″, 230, and ran in the 4.4’s during the 2003 draft run-up.  There are a lot of 6’4″ guys that might weigh 215, but stocky, heavy, tall, fast receivers are pretty unique.

I think the thing that surprises me the most about Harrison is his arm length.  I thought for certain that his arms would be shorter than Hunter’s, just going by the eyeball test.  Hunter has 33″ arms, which is a very good arm length for a receiver.  I thought Harrison might have 31″ or 32″ arms.  He has 35″ arms.  Few pass rushers in this draft have arms that long.  Only two other receivers cracked 34 inches.

Harrison also posted a 38.5″ vertical leap.

Watching Harrison, I have no idea why he’s not at least considered a 3rd round prospect.  Tony Pauline is a highly informed reporter in constant contact with NFL scouts, coaches, and executives, and while his draft rankings badly need an update, I tend to trust them (with a grain of salt, of course).  Those rankings don’t even list Mark Harrison in the top 160.

One of my favorite things to do when talking about a prospect is to try to dig up some nugget of information that almost nobody knows about.  I tried doing a google search on a quest for some Harrison reading, and well, there just wasn’t much out there.  Outside of a token article here and there, it doesn’t seem like a whole lot of people are talking about this guy.

Interestingly, Mark Harrison worked with star Chicago Bears’ wide receiver Brandon Marshall before the combine to work on his catching mechanics (as reported at Mocking The Draft).  He also asked for advice from former teammate Mohamed Sanu.

Harrison never posted a 1000 yard season in college.  He had just 583 yards (but had 6 touchdowns on just 44 receptions) last year.  In 2010, he had his best season with 829 yards and 9 touchdowns (also on just 44 receptions).  His yards per catch that season was an astronomical 18.8, which along with his touchdown numbers suggest that Harrison was a potent vertical threat at receiver.  His yards per catch dropped to 13.3 last season.

I wonder if his usage changed as the team transitioned from centering around Mohamed Sanu to centering around Brandon Coleman.  Coleman’s career yards per catch is an unbelievable 21.2.  Maybe the team handed the deep threat mantle to Coleman and used Harrison as more of an all-purpose receiver?

At the very least, Harrison’s 2010 season proves what he is capable of- monster per catch production- which hints at him being a strong deep threat target.  Last year Golden Tate and Sidney Rice posted very strong yards per target and touchdowns per target rates.  Their potency in the deep passing game played a large part in that.

One of the things I like about Harrison is that while he may not have Percy Harvin type foot quickness, and can turn upfield quickly and shows burst in his acceleration.  I don’t see that same kind of explosiveness in Justin Hunter, who clearly generates his speed through long strides.

Another thing I like- Harrison had a couple drops in this video, but I would think that’s an aberration based on his technique.  He typically extends his hands to the football  and always seems to take that extra moment after every catch to make sure he has the football before turning up field.  And at 9.66″, Harrison has some of the largest hands among this year’s receiver class.  It would be nice if he cut it out with the Willie Mays underhand stuff on deep throws though.  He needs to face the ball and present a target with his hands instead, as he does (and does well) when executing his curl routes.

It was frustrating to watch Rutgers use Harrison so rarely on slants.  Most of his receptions were on curl routes, with most of the rest of his targets coming on post routes.  In fairness, Harrison runs a sharp curl route, but I think he’s a great weapon running diagonally across the field.  The problem with a curl route is that they essentially kill yards after catch since the receiver is coming back to the football.  If Harrison was open running across the field, he could catch a well placed pass and then use his outstanding acceleration to turn the reception into a potential home run play since a tackle wouldn’t be imminent like it is on a curl route or a well covered post route.

Harrison shows good awareness when a defender is about to go for a desperation ankle tackle.  He fires his hamstrings to elevate his knees and ankles far off the ground, something that Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin often did last season when they sensed a defender might be about to go for their feet from behind.

I think Mark Harrison deserves a third round grade when compared to his peers in this draft class.  But in a draft class that has far too many 2nd and 3rd round prospects to actually go in those rounds, we’ll see 3rd round receivers falling into rounds four and beyond.  I think Harrison could be an excellent pick later on as Sidney Rice depth if the team opts for a more all purpose receiver early on, such as Ryan Swope or DeAndre Hopkins.

Will the Seahawks be talking to this man's representatives at midnight tonight?

Technically, free agency begins on March 12th. However, the NFL has decided that as of midnight tonight, teams can legally ‘tap up’ players until Tuesday. No visits, no officially concluded deals. Just a lot of talking with agents and deals ‘in principle’.

Mike Florio explains…

Now that the NFL is launching a three-day legal tampering window, the key term will be “agreement in principle.” Even though contracts can’t be signed until Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. ET, non-binding deals can be struck — like the non-binding arrangement between the 49ers and Chiefs to trade Alex Smith once the new league year begins.

With the league trying to create an NCAA-style “signing day,” it’s safe to say teams will be discouraged from announcing agreements in principle with players who can’t be signed until Tuesday. Still, it’s inevitable that word of agreements in principle will leak; even if teams don’t issue a press release, they’ll be wise to get the word out, so that other teams will back off.

It’s a bit of a bizarre situation. We’ll get all the speculation, all the talking. By Tuesday we’ll have a good idea of what’s going to go down. And yet nothing will be finalised over the weekend. It sounds a bit like a kid finding his Christmas presents before the big day.

Of course, there’s always a chance for some of this…

With this whole “signing day” concept the NFL is floating, I wonder if the negotiating period rings in another CFB staple: De-commitments.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 9, 2013

So what about the Seahawks? They’ve already visited with Cullen Jenkins and John Abraham. They’ve contacted the representatives of Charles Woodson. All three can be signed at any point as they were released from their current contracts.

I suspect the Seahawks will seriously consider adding a veteran pass rusher. With Abraham, Osi Umenyiora and Dwight Freeney on the market, there are options out there. Cliff Avril and Paul Kruger will end up signing big bucks elsewhere. If nobody offers obscene money to the other three, they become realistic options for the Seahawks.

Then I think it’ll be about value. Who made it through the first stage of free agency when the big money was spent? Who is willing to consider a cheaper deal? Who suddenly sees the opportunity to join a contender as a big positive?

Improving the pass rush remains the key. Getting someone to act as a stop-gap during Chris Clemons’ recovery would be useful. Abraham — with ten sacks in 2012 — looks like the best (and perhaps cheapest) option of the three experienced free agents. He’s also minus a ring (Umenyiora has two, Freeney has one). It always helps to have a bit of fire still burning away.

One stumbling block to any potential courtship of Abraham is the 49ers. Having entertained Cullen Jenkins after his visit to Seattle, the former Falcons pass rusher is due to stop off in the Bay Area next.

I’m not expecting any fireworks this year. It could be as modest as the re-signing of Alan Branch and a couple of other low-profile deals. The fun thing about this front office is they keep you guessing. The games begin at midnight tonight.

Other names it might be worth watching: Fred Davis (TE), Robert Geathers (DE/DT), Desmond Bryant (DT), Phillip Wheeler (LB), Delanie Walker (TE), Ricky Jean-Francois (DT), Isaac Sopoaga (DT)

Update — according to Jason La Canfora the NFL is trying to ice their own ‘negotiating window’. They put out a memo essentially telling teams they can’t agree deals in principle.

This memo seems intent on putting a chill on any of that — the full memo is attached — and makes explicit that even agreeing in principle to a contract that would be contingent on a physical next week would be prohibited. It came as a surprise to many execs and agents and has created quite a stir as to how to proceed with contact tonight.

It’s also struck many as odd, given that the creation of this negotiating window seemed designed to curtail tampering and create a climate where deals could be effectively struck but not fully consummated.

So what is the point of all this then? Maybe this weekend will be pretty quiet after all?

The future is so bright (for the Seahawks), you're gonna need shades

We know that Seattle will consider pass rush early in this draft, but it’s also likely that they will consider receiver somewhere during the early rounds, as they did for a backup running back in 2012.  Other greater, more pressing needs pushed running back to round four, but what if Seattle “loves” a receiver option enough to take him at #25?  I don’t consider it especially likely, but it is an option we must be mindful of, especially if the top pass rushers are all gone in the top 24 picks, which is unfortunately a real possibility.

Walterfootball broke a bit of an interesting story yesterday after talking with NFL scouts:

WalterFootall.com spoke with some scouts, including one from a receiver-needy team picking in the back half of the top 32. All believe that Hunter is likely to go in the first round. They said the Combine really helped Hunter with positive reports from his medical check and an excellent 40-yard dash time of 4.44 seconds…

Scouts told WalterFootball.com that they love the upside of Hunter. He has the size to work in the short to intermediate part of the field and speed to get vertical. They like his run-after-the-catch ability as well as his combination of size and speed. Hunter hasn’t received a lot of first-round buzz, but one team in the mid 20s said it would be ecstatic if he was on the board for its pick.

Hunter’s upside was another reason that scouts felt he was likely to go in the first round. They said in this draft class, players with big upside are very appealing in the late first round rather than those who are deemed safe.

At first glance, this seems like a dead giveaway that the scout in question was an employee of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks pick 25th afterall, and it doesn’t get any more “mid twenties” than 25.  Consider though, every team in the mid twenties range (23-27) could consider a first round receiver as a realistic option.

The Vikings are having issues with star Percy Harvin, and it seems decently likely that Harvin’s days in Minnesota are numbered, even if he remains a Viking in 2013.  The Vikings passing offense came apart completely after Harvin’s injury last year, so depth is an issue as well.  The Colts had a pleasant surprise from T.Y. Hilton in 2012, but they still heavily depend on Reggie Wayne who is 35 years old next season.  Hilton is just 5’9″ so pairing him with a big vertical receiver makes sense, especially for a vertically inclined quarterback like Andrew Luck.  The Packers will likely lose Greg Jennings in free agency and many people are mocking them a receiver at #26.  The Texans don’t have a ton of needs and are believed to be looking for a weapon to compliment Andre Johnson.  You look up enough mock drafts, you’ll see at least one for each those five teams in the 23 to 27 range that has them taking a receiver.  Surprisingly, the “mid-twenties” comment isn’t anything close to the giveaway it sounds like.

But what if that scout actually does work for the Seahawks?  At the very least, we have to consider it a 20% chance.  That’s enough to pay attention to, especially since I would have thought there was close to zero chance the Seahawks would consider Hunter that early before today.  Of course, it’s lying season, and maybe this is a tactic to help get a guy overdrafted.  Just the same, I want to explore the idea of Justin Hunter at #25 and see if it makes sense for Seattle to be “ecstatic” to see him there.

Justin Hunter is among the tallest receivers in this draft, standing just a shade under 6’4″ tall.  Rounding to the nearest inch, there isn’t a receiver in this draft that stands 6’4″ or above that runs a faster forty time than Hunter’s 4.44 time.  Eastern Kentucky’s Tyrone Goard (4.50) and Florida State’s Rodney Smith (4.51) come the closest.  Rutgers’ Mark Harrison clocked a 4.46 at 6’3″, Arkansas’ Chris Gragg had a 4.50 at the same height, and Virginia Tech’s Corey Fuller had a 4.43.  Da’Rick Rogers had a 4.52.  At 6’2″, Terrence Williams had a 4.52, and Cordarrelle Patterson clocked a 4.42.

In short, you won’t find a receiver in this draft with a better combination of height and speed than Justin Hunter.  His arms (33.25″) are tied for the 3rd longest at the combine among receivers.  His 39.5″ vertical was tied for the best among receivers.  His 11’4″ broad jump was in a class by itself.  He also has big 9.38″ hands, which was roughly 80th percentile in this receiver class.  Everything about Hunter’s measurables screams deep ball receiver.  Seattle has a quarterback who by his own admission has a sexy deep ball and likes to use it.  Seattle released Mike Williams last summer, and scrambled to replace his role on the team with other tall receivers with speed:  Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards.  They also brought in Evan Moore who was a jump ball threat in the red zone.  Only Edwards provided any real contribution, and none of them are currently a part of the team.

Seattle does have 6’4″ Sidney Rice, but their actions last year suggest that they want a tall receiver with speed and jump ball ability to act as insurance for Rice.  So yes, Seattle’s interest in Justin Hunter- purely as a physical prospect- makes complete sense.

So, is Justin Hunter actually any good?  Decide for yourself:

My take:

Hunter is fast, but isn’t a wizard at changing directions and won’t likely be much of a Golden Tate type playmaker with the ball in his hands.  I actually feel sorry for Hunter’s knees the way he throws his weight around on them, and I’m not surprised at all that Hunter had an ACL in 2011 based on the way his knees buckle from his running style.  On the other hand, consider that every video above was just one year after an ACL.  His 4.44 forty time was just 17 months after the injury, short of the 24 month full recovery time.  For a guy still recovering from an ACL, Hunter can certainly move.

Hunter does seem like a Pete Carroll type player.  He has good hands, but poor catching technique, often catching the ball too close to his body.  He can’t hold on to a contested pass to save his life either.  Swat away and it’s 2nd and 10.  Hunter also struggles to diagnose where the deep ball is going.  Sometimes he’ll hesitate and then realize he screwed up only to miss what should have been an easy deep reception.  Thankfully, all of these areas are coachable.  Pete likes fixer-upper projects:  guys with rare physical talent that need to be coached out of mistakes and sloppy technique.  You can’t coach a 4.44 forty yard dash at 6’4.”  Bruce Irvin, last year’s first round pick, was the epitome of that same philosophy.

For that matter, the term “ecstatic” itself sounds like an adjective that came from our war room; this regime certainly hasn’t lacked for energy or enthusiasm.  And if there is one team that views a player as a steal to the complete disagreement of Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, well, isn’t that the stereotypical first round pick for John Schneider?  Schneider’s “reachiness” in round one is more perception than truth, but regardless, he isn’t afraid of getting a ribbing from the media on draft day.  Not in the slightest.

I have reservations about Hunter’s health going forward: every cut he makes I am amazed how his wobbly little knees somehow hold up.  He already has an ACL on his health record, and every future ACL he tears will make the situation worse.  I also question the idea of reaching for a receiver in a draft that is loaded with value options.  That makes little sense to me.

That said, Justin Hunter gives Seattle something they certainly don’t have already (as depth).  Their actions last season suggest that this type of acquisition is a need, and still is one.  After Hunter leaves the board, you won’t find a truly comparable physical talent.  I could see this pick happening.  Especially if Seattle is more active in free agency with regards to defense than we anticipate.

Datone Jones had 19 TFL in 2012 -- among the best in college football

Forget sacks, concentrate on tackles for a loss

A lot of attention is paid to sacks, but is it the best way to determine how productive a defensive lineman really is? As this article from Second Round Stats argues, ‘strength of sacks’ can be influenced by a number of factors. Unblocked plays, strength of opponent, quality of team mates. It all has an impact.

The two Florida State pass rushers for example (Bjoern Werner & Tank Carradine) not only help each other, but according to the article they also weaken the strength of their production. You can’t double team both players.

Strength of opponent also needs to be taken into account. Of Werner’s 13 sacks in 2012, five came against Murray State and Savannah State. Three more came in blow out victories over Wake Forest and Maryland. He had eight games without even recording a sack, but still ended the year with perceived fantastic production. How dominant was he in reality?

Carradine’s production was more spread out — he had just three sack-less games with only one of his eleven sacks coming against Murray or Savannah State.

The best way to judge will always come through watching tape, but another way of projecting overall dominance is to look at tackles for a loss. I think it’s a too-often ignored statistic. Generally if a player is constantly in the backfield, he’ll make plays.

This graph shows the leading players for TFL during 2012. Unsurprisingly, Jarvis Jones is well clear in first place with 24.5 TFL last season. Will Sutton (DT, Arizona State) and Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina) closely follow with 23.5 tackles for a loss. Again, further confirmation of what we already knew. Both players had fantastic seasons and will be coveted players in the 2014 draft.

Datone Jones had only 6.5 sacks in 2012 — which is good, but not amazing production. Yet he ranked in the top ten for TFL with 19. That statistic should be getting more publicity. It validates Jones as a prospect, showing he has the production to go with the athletic skills. Had he recorded 10-12 sacks, everyone would be talking about it. Instead, it’s only 6.5 sacks and very few people mention his production. In reality, he was one of the most productive defensive linemen in college football last season.

In comparison, he had six more TFL than Tank Carradine, Sharrif Floyd and Ziggy Ansah. For what it’s worth, Khaseem Greene had 12 TFL — only one fewer than the three vaunted pass rushers.

Another interesting statistic — J.J. Watt had only seven sacks in his final year at Wisconsin but he had 21 TFL. That’s eerily similar to Jones’ production in 2012.

While the question marks remain over how he fits in the NFL, don’t be surprised if he goes much earlier than people expect. He showed at the Senior Bowl and combine what a fantastic athlete he is. Teams will be aware of his production. If the Seahawks get a chance to draft the guy, I suspect they should probably take it. Seattle needs a defensive lineman not named Chris Clemons who is capable of getting 19 TFL in a season.

If you want a counter argument, remember Jones will have benefited from the presence of Anthony Barr — among the leaders for both sacks and TFL in 2012. He will be a high pick in the 2014 draft too. That undoubtedly helped Jones with the pair often acting as a partnership. The thing is, there’s no reason why Jones can’t strike up a similar partnership with Clemons, Bruce Irvin or any other pass rusher added during the off-season. Essentially, that’s what the Seahawks really need.

Impressive interviews will help defensive duo

You can usually find interviews with high profile college players online. It’s no exact science, but it does give you an insight into a players confidence and technical knowledge. Cordarrelle Patterson for example never looked comfortable being interviewed at Tennessee. On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins would refer to specific routes and play calls. It’s no surprise that one is an inexperienced spark plug while the other is a polished, consistent hands catcher.

I really wanted to get to know Sheldon Richardson and Sylvester Williams during the season, but no interviews were available. Both players went the JUCO route but for different reasons. Richardson had academic issues which forced him to California before returning to Missouri. Williams struggled to motivate himself in High School, dropped out to work in a car parts workshop before eventually having an epiphany moment and returning to football.

In both cases, you want to hear these guys talk. You want to learn about their personalities. And having finally had the opportunity to listen to both players speak,  I couldn’t have been any more impressed.

At the combine Richardson spoke with confidence and humour, which was reassuring given not only his academic problems in college but also his suspension during 2012 for issues relating to missed classes. I also liked the way he talked about sacking Robert Griffin III in this ‘first draft’ feature.

“Against Baylor I had the game of my life. Had two tackles for a loss, made RGIII fumble. I promise you he remembers that game. All you got to do is ask him about his last game against Mizzou. I was in his face a lot.”

I love that quote. I love his attitude and his personality. It’s confident without being cocky. He’s edgy. He’s the type of guy you want playing the three technique.

Williams also appeared in the NFL Network studios this week and has a very different personality. He wore a shirt and tie, seeming humble and modest. More importantly, he had a complete grasp of his position. Williams comes across as a student of the game. While we’re on the subject, he had 13.5 TFL in 2012. Richardson had 10.5. Age is the big issue with Williams (he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie) but don’t rule him out as an option for Seattle in the first two rounds. You won’t see a sweeter swim move, he’s perfected it.

Countering Cosell

Greg Cosell has a well earned reputation as the senior producer at NFL Films. Admittedly, he’s adept at watching tape and explaining clearly and concisely why something has happened.

However, it’s considered sacrilege by some to contradict anything he says — especially when it comes to the draft. And that’s what I’m going to do today.

This week Cosell suggested Matt Barkley is a fourth round talent:

“Number one, he has average arm strength by NFL standards. Number two, his feet are not particularly quick, he has slower feet. And three, he’s a little shorter. So then I go beyond that and think, ‘OK, how can he be successful in the NFL when you got certain limitations?’ And I think those limitations are the things I notice immediately and it’s very difficult for me to look at him as a first- or second-round pick given those limitations and given what I know works effectively in the NFL.”

Cosell isn’t the first person to offer a low opinion of Barkley, but I took particular issue with the reasoning for such a mediocre grade.

Let’s run through each of Cosell’s points individually:

“Number one, he has average arm strength by NFL standards”

Average isn’t ‘bad’. There are several productive quarterbacks in the NFL with only average arm strength. Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees. You wouldn’t say any of these guys have a ‘big arm’. Others like Matt Hasselbeck have been able to forge successful careers without needing a cannon, while the two most productive quarterbacks over the last decade — Tom Brady and Peyton Manning — would not list arm strength among their key attributes.

While there’s some truth that arm strength can be a defining characteristic to own, it’s won’t necessarily make or break a career. Barkley is never going to be Joe Flacco or Cam Newton. He won’t be Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. But it doesn’t mean he can’t be Matt Schaub. And there are plenty of teams out there who would take a 22-year-old version of Schaub given the opportunity.

“Number two, his feet are not particularly quick, he has slower feet”

Presumably this refers to footwork in the pocket and not the ability to be a threat running with the ball. When watching Barkley in 2011, I thought his footwork was at an elite level. His ability to avoid sacks despite lacking great athleticism was among his best qualities. Even more vital was his ability to keep his eyes down field, make reads on the move and still throw an accurate football. One play still stands out from USC’s victory in Oregon (click here and fast forward to 2:07). Barkley takes the snap under center, drops back and eyes up a receiver on the left hand side. He faces three rushers, one of which penetrates up the middle. Barkley feels the pressure without distraction, side steps to avoid it and keeps his eyes on the desired target. He then slides back to the right and just as he’s about to get hit, delivers one of the best passes you’ll see at any level. Accuracy, poise, footwork and yes — arm strength — all present on that play. It’s only example, but there are others.

In 2012 he lost his left tackle to the NFL, his center got injured and the Trojans were nearly always coming from behind due to a rank bad defense. Barkley was under almost constant duress as a consequence and I’ve no doubt that had an impact on his poise and footwork. He threw a lot off his back foot — something he’d rarely done in three previous years as a starter. He forced passes in a way we’d not seen between 2009-11. He picked up bad habits and his game suffered as a result. However, we’ve also seen how surgical he can be when sufficiently protected. We’ve seen him beat Oregon in their own backyard, handle Notre Dame for three years and destroy other PAC-12 rivals. Ask Chip Kelly what he thinks of Barkley.

A little perspective on the footwork or ‘slow feet’ is probably needed here. I think it’d be a palatable criticism if we’d seen it was a big issue when Barkely was a freshman, a sophomore and a junior. But in fairness, we didn’t.

“And three, he’s a little shorter”

Barkley was measured at 6-2 and a half at the combine. When we’re talking about a 5-10 quarterback like Russell Wilson, I can see the complaint. To suggest a quarterback who is a solid 6-2 going on 6-3 is a little short, for me, is extremely harsh.

And I have to say, are we really still having this debate? Have we not learnt anything from Wilson’s success? That’s not to say every 5-10 or shorter-than-average quarterback will make their height a non-issue. There’s a reason so few short quarterbacks succeed. But Barkley isn’t even short. He’s taller than Geno Smith.

Perhaps Cosell’s fourth round grade will prove to be accurate when the time comes for Matt Barkley to take a NFL field? At worst, I think he deserves a grade in the range where Dalton was drafted (35th overall in 2o11). I still believe Barkley should and will be a first round pick, yet I can see why he might fall into the second round. The fourth round just seems a little extreme, though.

ESPN’s Merril Hodge gave the same judgement today based on a five-game study. That’s the issue though — it’s five games. Had Hodge watched five games from 2011, he’d probably offer a first round grade. It’s one of the reasons they tell talented underclassmen quarterbacks to declare when they get the chance — to avoid this kind of last minute analysis. Hodge calls Barkley a project. He may have limited upside — enough to make his NFL career a short one. But how many four-year starters with this level of technical quality get listed as projects?

Seahawks make call to Woodson & Abraham

Josina Anderson is reporting that the Seahawks are among the teams to express early interest in Charles Woodson.

NFL sources tell me that the Seahawks, the Dolphins, the Jets and the Giants are among teams that have called to discuss Charles Woodson.

— Josina Anderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 7, 2013

John Schneider and Pete Carroll continue to leave no leaf unturned. The Seahawks have done their homework on virtually every veteran hitting the market in the last three years. Woodson is no different.

Whether he’s the right fit for this team remains to be seen. He could offer some veteran guidance to a young secondary, particularly if Marcus Trufant moves on this off-season. He might receive stronger offers from other teams promising more time on the field.

Discussions like this will probably set the tone for free agency next week. The Seahawks probably aren’t going to throw big money at anyone, but they’re hunting for value, experience and production. If Woodson or recent visitor Cullen Jenkins don’t get big, attractive offers elsewhere, they could end up playing a role in the Pacific North West.

Doug Baldwin is a fan anyway:

“@chrisburke_si: Woodson on the Seahawks continues to intrigue me.”Brings established leadership to the defense and depth.

— Dbfresh (@DougBaldwinJr) March 7, 2013

Meanwhile Kimberly Jones is also reporting that former Falcons pass rusher John Abraham will visit the Seahawks:

Am told free agent DE John Abraham is on his way to visit the Seahawks.

— Kimberly Jones (@KimJonesSports) March 7, 2013

Again, no stone unturned.

And he knows how to use them

Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Jarvis Jones if you missed it yesterday.

Last year, we predicted that Seattle would go pass rusher in round one.  We predicted Seattle would go linebacker in round two.  We predicted they’d go running back in round three and quarterback in round four.  I also thought they’d add a second linebacker, as well as a corner and safety in the later picks.

Basically, we completely nailed it, other than Seattle flip-flopping rounds three and four.  While it would be fun to brag, we had some help from some sources with close contacts to the front office, and that information proved extremely accurate, even if a few of the names we were given missed the mark.  Rob even remembers being told that quarterback had possibly moved to a round three priority about a month before the draft, and if we had adjusted for that, we would have basically batted a thousand last year in regards to guessing the order in which needs were addressed.  I remembered hearing that nugget about a quarterback, but for whatever reason I forgot to adjust my projection and was genuinely surprised (in an extremely good way) when Wilson was our 3rd round pick.

This year we’ve had less insider information to go with, which of course coincides with a draft that is widely considered one of the deepest and most unpredictable groups ever.  We are cranking out two articles almost every day and I still think we’ll come up well short of naming every realistic option in the earliest rounds.  Be ready for surprises.

During a recent press conference or interview, John Schneider talked about how there were nice “pockets” of talent here and there during this draft.  We understand that running back was considered to be a round 1-3 priority last year since they liked the talent pool in that area.  It ended up being pushed back one round, but they still got a very nice talent in Robert Turbin.  They thought that pass rusher had to be a very high priority.  They liked quarterback in rounds 4-6, although that was later bumped up to round three for a specific quarterback who’s stock was rising.  I would guess that John Schneider probably had an undrafted free agent pocket for receivers, as he added three UDFA receivers that year and later talked about how he thought it was a weak receiver class.  We saw a gap in this information and concluded that linebacker would be an early priority as well, probably the second round.

So what might those pockets look like this year?  I have no scoop to give you this time, so with nothing other than a few clues and my trusty gut, here are what I think the 2013 draft pockets might look like for the Seahawks this year:

___________

Interior Pass Rush:  Rounds 1-2.

LEO:  Rounds 1-4.

Wide Receiver:  Rounds 1-4.

Linebacker:  Rounds 2-5.

Offensive Tackle:  Rounds 3-5.

Corner:  Rounds 4-7.

Tight end:  Round 5-7.

Safety:  Rounds 5-7.

___________

Defensive tackle:

Seattle wants to improve their pass rush, and it will be an early priority if the exasperation in Pete Carroll’s voice after the Falcon’s game is any indication.  Good pass rushing defensive tackles are some of the rarest and most valuable players in the NFL.  They are extremely hard to project during the draft process.  I think that’s underscored by guys like Geno Atkins and Henry Melton, who are among the NFL’s best but were just 4th round picks.  In a draft where defensive line talent is (in my opinion) being overshot in evaluations, finding that mid round steal will be pretty hard this year.  If you even have the physical potential to be Melton or Atkins, you are going to leave the board very early this year.  Probably as a result of Seattle’s success, teams are starting to weigh upside more heavily than risk this year.

Further, there just aren’t a ton of physically gifted defensive tackles this year.  Only two defensive tackles posted forty times under five seconds.  Jones’ time was easily the fastest this year, but it would not have been the fastest in any of the four previous drafts.*   It’s hard to be a great pass rushing 3-tech if you don’t have speed, and there aren’t a ton of them with speed this year.  If you want a fast defensive tackle, your options are basically between Datone Jones, Sheldon Richardson, and Sharrif Floyd.  Floyd will be off the board in the top five.  Richardson will probably leave the board in the top twenty.  Jones will probably leave the board in the late teens to late twenties.  If you want one of these potential difference makers, it’s starting to look like you’d need to take him in round one, if you were fortunate enough to get the chance.

*Interestingly, there are some really good defensive tackles just ahead of Datone (4.80) Jones in the speed rankings over the last 4 years:  Henry Melton (4.65), Geno Atkins (4.75), Cameron Jordan (4.74 official), Fletcher Cox (4.77).  So there is a pretty good correlation between speed and production.  Fun fact: Jaye Howard (4.83), Clinton McDonald (4.83), and Jason Jones (4.76) all ran forties at or under 4.83.   I think it’s safe to say this isn’t a coincidence.  It appears Seattle is aware that speed kills at defensive tackle.

The Seahawks could wait for round two, but I don’t think they’d pass on Richardson or Datone Jones if they were available, not unless Werner or Jarvis Jones fell, and the reasons that caused that fall didn’t apply to the Seahawks.  I am reasonably sure that Seattle would take Datone Jones over more “touted” outside rushers like Barkevious Mingo.  Seattle can get a backup LEO later, but if they want a difference making interior pass rusher, it has to be very early.

In the event that none of those three defensive tackles make it, Seattle might possibly trade down or consider the best remaining option in round two if they don’t like Kawann Short enough to take him this early.  Candidates in round two include Brandon Williams, Sylvester Williams, and (if I had my druthers) John Simon.  I have a really hard time envisioning a draft where Seattle does not select a defensive tackle in the first two rounds, barring an unexpectedly fruitful free agency (such as signing Desmond Bryant while also retaining Jason Jones).

LEO:

Last year I watched Bruce Irvin with a focused eye every week, and when he was rarely put in true three down situations (i.e. not against a two-minute offense), the near automatic result was that Irvin vanished.  Irvin is a special athlete who creates pressure mostly from a blistering edge rush, but since his repertoire is so limited he has to commit fully to that one tactic and to beat NFL tackles.  With such a one dimensional attack Irvin has had no choice but to sell out as a pass rusher to achieve results.

Irvin has the speed to be a LEO, but not the technique, not the size, and maybe not the strength.  Irvin showed some good strength in college as a bullrusher, but after last season that strength did not appear to translate in the NFL.  Because Irvin is undersized and underpowered, he must sell out to stop the run.  Part of what makes Chris Clemons so great is that he can seamlessly play both the run and the pass on every play, doing an outstanding job in both areas.  Compare that to Irvin, who has to sell out as a pass rusher to get sacks, and has to sell out as a run stopper to not get killed as a run stopper.  Bruce Irvin did look like an ideal LEO in college, but in 2012 he did not.

I’m not ruling out the possibility of Irvin developing.  After all, Chris Clemons himself entered the NFL as a 236 pound linebacker, and had a reputation as a poor run defender for many years before arriving in Seattle.  It took a long time, but he turned into a terrific all around defensive end.  Irvin is much more gifted physically than Clemons, a 2003 UDFA, was.  As one of Irvin’s very biggest fans before the 2012 draft, I won’t be the guy to put limits on his potential.

Regardless, that day when Irvin becomes a complete player is not assured, and if/when it does happen, it’s not likely to be in time for the 2013 opener.  With Clemons turning 32 next season and coming off an ACL, Seattle can’t afford to risk being in position to force Irvin into a role he’s not ready for. When Pete talked about needing pass rushers in the plural, I’m sure it was for this exact reason.  We need depth, and preferably an improved future at pass rushing end.

With the rest of the league playing copycat and looking for the next Bruce Irvin type, Seattle probably won’t be able to wait long if they want a quality option at LEO.  If they rate Werner as being athletic enough, or if they rate Jarvis Jones as healthy enough, they might strongly consider either at #25 if a dramatic draft fall occurs for either one.  Barkevious Mingo will probably not reach Seattle’s pick, but he could be considered as well.

I think a more likely scenario is that Seattle goes for a defensive tackle like Richardson, Jones, or Short in round one, and then hope to get Corey Lemonier in round two.  If Lemonier is gone at #58, Seattle might consider a few other options in the rounds 2-4 range.

While Alex Okafor seems far too slow to be a classic LEO, he is a complete defensive end with good run defense, good size, and an excellent pass rush repertoire (as well as good college production).  Given that even a young, 236 pound Clemons didn’t have blistering speed, I would guess that last year’s Chris Clemons probably wouldn’t beat Okafor in a footrace by much.  So in a situation where the best fast options are all gone, Okafor could come into play if he’s there in round two.  I would keep an eye on Armonty Bryant as a 3rd or 4th round option as well.  Like Okafor, he doesn’t have LEO speed, but has other dominant traits that more than compensate. Brandon Jenkins opted not to run at the combine, and he looks like he’s a decent but not great 4.7 on tape (my estimate).  He had a rough combine in drills, although I think his tape is pretty good- he’s definitely a natural LEO in terms of how he plays the position.  Cornelius Carradine might be an option in this range as well.

If Seattle is adamant about drafting for speed at LEO, Margus Hunt, Ty Powell, Devin Taylor, Cornelius Washington and Trevardo Williams bring excellent athleticism but are completely undeveloped.  And in the case of Williams, I think he’s probably a 4-3 linebacker anyway.  Devin Taylor posted a so-so 4.72 forty time, but I’m intrigued with his 1.59 ten yard split and he had a very strong combine overall.

Wide Receiver:

Seattle needs depth at receiver and is hoping for an upgrade as well.  Seattle likes fast receivers with quick feet that can gain yards after the catch.  They will probably prefer a receiver with deep ball skills, so either one that is fast and tall or one that is fast and can jump high.  I think they will rate Cordarrelle Patterson very highly, and if he’s there Seattle will have an interesting decision to make.  Keenan Allen and Tavon Austin could be worth monitoring in round one as well.  More likely, Seattle will keep tabs on options during the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  In an extreme case, I could see Seattle waiting until the 4th round, as this receiver class is incredibly deep.

I expect Seattle will look to add a second receiver in the very late rounds or in UDFA.  This group of receivers is too good to walk out with just one.

Linebacker:

It’s a very thin linebacker class this year, and Pete’s tone of contentment in a recent interview when discussing his “USC backup crew” (Malcolm Smith, Allen Bradford, Mike Morgan) makes me think he’s not too panicked about the position.  Rather than talking about upgrading at weakside linebacker, Pete instead talked about finding “competition” for them.  Basically, a peer among a group that includes just one player drafted as a linebacker:  Malcolm Smith in the 7th round.  Smith posted a 4.44 forty, Morgan a 4.46, and Bradford a 4.56.  All would be among the very fastest among the linebackers this year.  Practice squad player Korey Toomer clocked a 4.53 himself.

Alec Ogletree did not run the fastest forty, but is a gifted athlete.  Arthur Brown drew rave reviews from Carroll coming out of high school, and is a sideline to sideline speedster.  Khaseem Greene has average speed but has a great nose for the ball.  You can see some players that might rate highly early, but I just think other needs will likely trump linebacker.  I think it could be an emergency option in the event where the draft board at pass rusher and receiver do not fall kindly for Seattle, but my guess is that Seattle probably looks at linebacker in the middle rounds.  Zaviar Gooden probably makes the most sense of all the fast linebackers available.

Offensive Tackle:

Seattle’s interest in Jordan Mills confirms that they are looking into offensive tackle.  Mills is considered to be a mid-round prospect, although the report mentioned that Seattle might select Mills “earlier than you might think.”  We’ll see.  Unless Seattle absolutely loves freak athlete Menelik Watson, I can’t really see them drafting a tackle in round one or two.

Breno Giacomini was a penalty machine in the first half of last season, but down the stretch he seemed to get his act together.  A polarizing player, Giacomini could be our worst lineman one week and our best lineman the next.  I do not think Seattle is unhappy with Giacomini, but they might want to improve our depth situation at tackle.  Frank Omiyale is a free agent, and Paul McQuistan is a free agent in 2014.  Giacomini himself is in a contract year.  So being proactive with the tackle situation in the 2013 draft makes sense.

Corner:

Seattle has drafted a corner every year since Pete took over, but never did they spend higher than a 4th round pick on one.  In a year where as many as twenty corners are expected to go in the first 100 picks, we might see Seattle snag a corner a little earlier than we’re used to as a reaction to the behavior of the market.  There are a very high number of fast corners with decent size this year.

Tight end:

Seattle got very good production out of Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy on a per-target basis last year.  Miller may not be cheap, but he proved late in the season- especially in the postseason- how indispensable he is.    While I really like Zach Ertz and think that Tyler Eifert is a perfect fit for Seattle, I just can’t see Seattle taking tight end in the early rounds with several other areas being much bigger areas for upgrade.  I expect Seattle to look for a mid to late round value addition such as Travis Kelce or perhaps tweener Chris Gragg.  The futures contract given to Darren Fells yesterday might also hint at the kind of investment at tight end Seattle is targeting for a 3rd option.

Safety:

The Winston Guy pick didn’t work out quite as hoped in 2012, and while I highly doubt they will give up on him just like that, Seattle could certainly look to add competition to the “big nickle” safety role currently held down by Jeron Johnson.  Chris Maragos (a free agent) has provided the speedy safety depth needed for Earl Thomas the last couple years.  Will Seattle bring Maragos back or seek an upgrade?

___________

Free agency could modify priorities, but I’m not really expecting that.  Seattle wants to build through the draft.  I think we’ll see a few complimentary signings.  With Melton, Starks, and Johnson all being franchised, and talk that Cliff Avril will get megabucks, I don’t really see a likely scenario where the Seahawks draft plans change all that much based on free agency.  That said, I’d love to see them be active at defensive tackle.  I’d really hate to see us lose both Jones and Branch.  Branch was a great contributor in 2011 and Jones was definitely helping before he got injured.

I don’t know if this is what John Schneider’s draft pockets actually look like, but hopefully I’m at least close.  Last year was a lot of fun in large part because we felt prepared for what Seattle was going to do.  It’s much more fun and interesting when the Seahawks draft players we actually know something about.

Would it be ethical for Seattle to take Jarvis Jones?

It just seems so unlikely that the Seahawks would draft Jarvis Jones if he made it to the #25 pick. Pete Carroll and other members of Seattle’s coaching staff were at USC when he was told by the school’s medical team that he should cease playing football to avoid life threatening injury. He has spinal stenosis, a condition that has cut short many promising careers. Although it’s highly unlikely a scrubbed up Carroll was the guy making that particular judgement, imagine that scenario for a moment. You’re part of an organisation that warns a player he should stop playing to avoid possible permanent and serious injury. Then when he turns pro, you offer him a contract? The ethics don’t add up there.

Having said that, someone is presumably going to give Jones the opportunity to play professional football — whether that’s as a first round pick or a seventh round pick. And that team will have to clear him to play, just like Georgia did and USC didn’t. The NFL teams will do their own tests. Their doctors will offer up their own take.

I’m not going to pretend I have any insight into the specifics of spinal stenosis, but Jones has argued that he only suffers from a mild case and it won’t be an issue. That might be wishful thinking. Yet since he started competing in the SEC, he’s not had any neck or back injuries. He’s been banged up and missed games (plus the combine), but there haven’t been any red flag moments where you start to fear that he’s putting his life at risk.

Some teams will possibly hear the word ‘stenosis’ and take his name immediately off their draft board. Others will take their chances based on the information they receive. It does seem a little crude to even use the words ‘take their chances’. We’re talking about a man who could be left with life-threatening injuries if this condition is as serious as USC suggested. And that’s why I keep coming back to whether Carroll would want to be the one to make the call. Him drafting Jarvis Jones just seems all the more risky. He’s the one who probably sat in a room with those doctors when the call was made to prevent him playing any more football for Southern Cal. If Jones did suffer a serious injury in Seattle due to the stenosis, how bad what that look?

I suppose if the Seahawks’ medical team see things differently and clear him physically, then it becomes somewhat of a moot point. After all, nobody is forcing Jones to play football. They’d be able to point to the tests and say they did their homework. Carroll would be well within his rights to explain he’s a coach not a doctor and that he was acting only on the information presented to him. You can see why things might get a little awkward though if something went wrong.

The stenosis is likely to drop Jones down the draft board, although it’s not the only reason why he probably won’t be a top-ten pick. As dynamic as he’s been in the SEC for the last two years, there’s still a lot of frustrating tape out there. You can’t help but watch the SEC Championship game against Alabama and scream, “Get off that tight end!” Get off the block and make a play. He couldn’t.

Even when he had a big impact (eg, Missouri), there are frustrating moments where he’s easily managed. I think he’s a naturally gifted football player and athlete with a nose for big plays, but he’s not necessarily the most natural edge rusher. I know that sounds strange given his sack numbers, but it’s difficult to explain. Look at the tape below and you’ll probably see what I mean.

There’s no getting away from his production in college. For the last two seasons, he’s been statistically one of the best players at any position. Only Whitney Mercilus topped him for sacks in 2011, but he led the country in 2012. That’s two solid years of pure production in the SEC. He had an astonishing 24.5 tackles for a loss in 2012, with a further 19.5 the previous year. Throw in nine forced fumbles and an interception and it’s easy to see why teams will be hoping he checks out medically.

It’s easy to rule Jones out at #25 due to the medical history involved with USC. But what about the argument that suggests it still remains a possibility?

Pete Carroll has been very open and honest when discussing the teams needs going into an off-season. In his end of season press conference in 2011, he singled out how important it was to improve the 31st ranked rushing offense. So what does he do? He goes out and drafts the left tackle from the best running team in college football — Alabama. The guy who created rushing lanes for Mark Ingram so that he could win a Heisman. James Carpenter was the teams first round pick. They then go back and add a road-grader type with their second choice in John Moffitt. The intent was very clear and with hindsight, both picks made absolute sense. Yet at the time nobody called it.

A year later and Carroll is speaking about the next batch of needs. He highlights speed among the front seven as a key focus. Then he goes out and selects the fastest defensive end in the draft — Bruce Irvin. He follows it up with one of the fastest linebackers — Bobby Wagner. Again, with hindsight if you took Carroll’s remarks literally both picks were fairly obvious. He did what he said he was going to do. By the book.

And now the focus is improving the pass rush. Carroll has spelled it out again, just like the last two years. It’s a safe bet that he’s going to draft for the defensive line to improve the pass rush. I sat down last night and looked at a long list of defensive ends and tackles. I could see a handful of likely options. But one name stood out. Carroll has been extremely literal with these hints, he’s made everything clear. He wants to improve the pass rush this off-season.

Statistically, who has been college football’s best pass rusher the last two years?

It’s Jarvis Jones.

Yet just when you think — hey — this makes perfect sense, you almost have to take a step back.

Let’s go back to 2009, when the stenosis was initially discovered. ESPN’s Jordan Conn takes us through events:

The injury occurred against Oregon on Halloween in 2009. By all accounts, it was a routine hit, but after staying on the turf for a few seconds, he was removed from the game. Within days, he found himself in the hospital, where a specialist told him he had a “mild” case of spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal column. “I’ve seen this over and over again,” Jones remembers the doctor saying. “If you play the game long enough, things like this will happen.”

The doctor told Jones he would be fine and he could play again. But the Trojans’ team doctors thought the injury was much more serious and refused to clear him for contact; they eventually recommended that Jones retire from football. So the then-20-year-old spent his days wandering from class to the basketball gym to the weight room.

USC doesn’t just turn away top recruits on a whim. Could it be argued that the first doctor wasn’t speaking from a completely qualified position? That perhaps he didn’t have the full facts at the time? If you’re told everything will be fine one minute and then you need to retire the next, it’s harder to accept. You’re getting mixed message. Ultimately, USC made a difficult judgement. They were ending his dreams. You don’t take matters like that lightly. And yet I appreciate why Jones fought to continue.

Conn also spoke to Ken Norton Jr. — now linebackers coach in Seattle, but in 2009 he was the main reason Jones chose to play for the Trojans.

“A lot of guys have speed, but they’re not tough,” Norton says. “Then some guys are tough but slow. Then there are guys who have all of that but no football smarts or work ethic. Jarvis has it all. It’s not even fair.” Norton, like Jones, truly believed the Trojans had signed their next great linebacker. “It seemed like just a regular linebacker injury,” says Norton. “I don’t think any of us thought it’d be as serious as it turned out.”

The coaches were aware of the situation. Carroll and Norton left USC for Seattle a matter of weeks after the decision was made, but you have to believe they were right there — maybe even breaking the bad news to the player. For those same coaches to then offer him a pro-contract a few years later just seems unethical, doesn’t it?

Scott Schrader also spoke to Jones about his departure from USC and I’d recommend checking out his piece. There’s also an article courtesy of redandblack.com documenting his switch from inside linebacker to the WILL/outside rusher. “The switch to playing the weak outside linebacker, called ‘Will’ in the 3-4, allowed Jones to use the wide variety of skills that he possessed. Jones insisted he didn’t always view himself as a pass rusher and that he didn’t even know why he had so much success at getting to the quarterback.”

Would Jones play the WILL in Seattle? This isn’t a 3-4 scheme and the roles are different. Would he play the LEO? He doesn’t have the natural length that would make that an obvious fit.

And yet he’s been the most productive pass rusher in college football the last two years. Wouldn’t you just have to find a role for the guy if he is cleared medically? However big that if may be?

Stranger things have happened. The biggest priority will remain a defensive tackle for now, unless that matter is addressed in free agency. It’s one of only two positions on the roster (along with the WILL) where the Seahawks are scheduled to lose a starter. Yet this is a team that has taken risks. Trading for Marshawn Lynch, Charlie Whitehurst and Lendale White were risks. Drafting Bruce Irvin was seen as a risk. Drafting a 5-10 quarterback and making him the starter was a risk. Trying out Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards was a risk. So was flirting with the idea of trading for Brandon Marshall in 2010.

This would be a completely different risk given the extremely serious consequences of it all going wrong. The question is, would this risk be too much even for the Seahawks?

Knowing when to pounce and when to walk away is part of what makes the Seahawks' front office so effective

Note:  Be sure to check out Rob’s article on Andy Reid below if you haven’t seen it already.  Rob tends to post articles in the early afternoons, while I tend to post them in the dead of night.  Often times we might bury each other’s work, so be sure to always scroll down and check.  I’ve noticed that comment activity seems to be much higher on articles that top the page.  We’d like to churn out content rapidly but one of the downsides is a shorter window for exposure and comment activity.  Rest assured that if you comment in a lower article we always try to read through and answer your questions.  So please don’t hesitate.  We generally check the comments for a day or two, sometimes more if it’s highly active.

Darrelle Revis was a Hall of Fame caliber player before his ACL.  Will he bounce back?  Will he leave after one season and be an expensive rental?  There are a lot of scenarios where dealing for Revis doesn’t make much sense.  I think it’s a reason why the market for Revis at least appears to be cooling down a bit.

So that begs the question: at what point does the price make sense for Revis and the risk that comes with him? The Seahawks didn’t think that Matt Flynn made sense for them last offseason, primarily because they expected him to get Kevin Kolb money. When it became apparent this was not the case, Seattle’s interest was ignited and they ultimately pulled the trigger after viewing Flynn’s developing contract situation as an opportunity.  I’m not sure if Seattle is wild about paying two firsts for Revis, but if the cost comes down enough, I think Seattle will have interest.  The question becomes: where would a deal begin to make sense?

First you have to determine how much Revis is actually worth. That leads me to a series of questions:

How will Revis play coming off an ACL injury?

A few years ago, the ACL injury probably would have killed Revis’ trade value almost completely, but in recent years there have been many cases of players returning to full strength after such an injury. Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, etc. Revis has speed to spare (4.38 forty) and that seems to be the common link between those who bounced back the best from the injury. You can’t rule out the impact completely, but it’s not insane to think that you’d get Revis type production from Revis in 2013. The injury does increase the risk though, and will certainly effect the Jets’ asking price.

How likely is Revis to be retained after 2013 and what might his market price be?

Revis can’t be franchised after next season and is seeking an insane amount of money in free agency. Whichever team trades for Revis will have zero leverage in contract talks and it’s considerably likely that Revis will hit open free agency next year. And if that happens, it’s anyone’s guess where he ends up. Overall, I’d say it’s likely that whichever franchise trades for Revis is getting a rental.

That said, don’t overlook the “upside” of actually landing Revis in a long term deal after 2013. Teams that make trades for rental types have generally enjoyed a bit of an inside track on getting the next contract. I think at least some of Revis’ high demands come from the fact that he plays for a lousy Jets team and probably wants out. If Seattle makes a deep playoff run (which I think is pretty likely) and Revis believes he is on the NFL’s best team, it’s going to make it harder to take that slightly better offer from the Jacksonville Jaguars or Cleveland Browns next march. Revis is already very rich, and I think the next contract is really more of an ego thing. If you make him the highest paid corner, that might be enough.

The highest paid corners in the NFL made around $11 million last season. Revis wants $16 million a year. Maybe after a very positive experience in 2013, he might sign back in the $12-$14 million range. FWIW, when you compare Revis to other high paid NFL players, I think he justifies that kind of salary pretty easily. He’s one of the most valuable non-QB players in the league. Or to look at it another way, is Revis worth as much as Zach Miller and Alan Branch combined? Because that’s what $12 to 14 million in salary looks like. Of course, you don’t want to lose essential players so we’re just talking dollars in expendable/luxury players.

It would be nice if we had a “wins over replacement” type stat in football as they do in baseball, then the calculation of Revis’ worth would be very easy. We don’t, but consider that this is a league where Brandon Flowers, Leon Hall, Chris Gamble, DeAngelo Hall, Nnamdi Asomugha, and an old Champ Bailey all made $8 to $11 million at the cornerback position last season. A league where good #2 corners like Brandon Carr get 5/50 contracts.

I genuinely feel that if you get Revis back on a 5/60 or 5/70 contract (which would make him the highest paid corner in the league by a good margin), you are getting a more than solid return on your investment. If he proves healthy and as good as ever.

How much is Revis worth purely as a rental?

If you deal for Revis, what is a reasonable price in the event he’s just a rental for one season? His cap hit is a reasonable $9 million in 2013. As expressed above, I think even $14 million is a fair price for a contributor of his magnitude. So his 2013 salary of $9 million is a plus, in my opinion.

Paying a 1st round pick in the event of a rental is far too much. I think a late 2nd rounder sounds about right though for a team that is front and center for the Superbowl discussion entering the 2013 season. To be clear, I think a late 2nd rounder is an overpay for one season of any player, but there is a higher chance to have Revis beyond 2013 if you trade for him and that added chance carries value.

I also think that one season of Revis carries a lot more value to a team like Seattle than it would to a middling team because it would make a hard team to beat that much tougher. Even if Revis leaves, would anyone complain about burning the #64 pick if the Revis trade helped us win a Superbowl? In a worst case scenario, Seattle fails to win it all, Revis walks, and the pick is lost. That’s not a good situation. So there’s risk to weigh.  Even in that worst scenario, there is tangible value in having Revis for one season.  Look at what major league baseball teams pay for star rentals at the trade deadline- for less than half a season.  They pay through the nose.  Sure, different sport, different value paradigms, but I think the upside of winning a championship or keeping Revis long term counterbalances the risk of having a 2nd round pick potentially burned.

How will Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis coexist?  Do they magnify each other’s value or diminish it?

It’s hard to tell how Revis and Sherman would coexist as teammates. I think they’d make up pretty quickly, as Sherman is really more of a joker than a jerk and Revis certainly didn’t seem to be holding any grudges during his interview with Sherman teammate Michael Robinson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_95245&feature=iv&src_vid=yqx1zoUskB4&v=NKx-jj0H1RY

It would be a really interesting competition dynamic to be sure, with both players competing for interceptions and big plays. I have to wonder if that very reason might be why Seattle was “highly interested” in Revis at the dawn of the trade talks. You know our coach loves competition, and a Revis-Sherman competition would be among the most epic in the history of the sport.

Having Revis on the field means more passes than usual will target Sherman, and vice versa. I think it would probably be a good thing forcing quarterbacks to throw more passes in Sherman’s direction, as well as Revis’. The passer rating on passes targeting Sherman and Revis are absurdly low. Combine that with Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond covering the number three and four options, and you are looking at a secondary for the ages.

So here is where I think a trade begins to make sense for Seattle

Seattle trades a conditional 2014 pick. If Revis gets re-signed and remains with the Seahawks beyond the 2013 season, the Jets receive our 2014 1st round pick. If Revis signs with another team in free agency, the Jets receive a 2014 2nd round pick instead. If Revis proves his worth and signs an extension to remain here, he is easily worth a 1st round pick and the money we pay him, especially since that 1st round pick will probably be a very late one.

And before anyone flips out of the mythical value of a 1st round pick, consider the options Seattle had in the late first back in 2011, 2008, 2006, 2005, and 2004. Those picks turned into James Carpenter, Lawrence Jackson, Kelly Jennings, Chris Spencer, and Marcus Tubbs. You look at the late 1st round most years and it’s not nearly as good as you might imagine. It’s hardly a lock to get a star. Although I do love the late 1st this year, but that’s beside the point and trust me, this year is pretty uncommon in it’s depth.  Anyway, he justifies that cost if he’s extended.  This is Darrelle Revis we’re talking about, not Deion Branch.

And while I’m sure people are sick of hearing this, it’s possible that the Jets could have a degree of interest in Matt Flynn as competition for Mark Sanchez and that could have a minor impact on the trade details as well.

Maybe the Jets get a better offer elsewhere. I am not saying that we must trade for Revis at all costs. But I think if an offer like this is possible, at this type of risk/reward, the balance of the deal becomes one worth making.

Andy Reid is making life interesting in the NFL

Crazy in KC

The Chiefs turned an already unpredictable draft on its head tonight. By agreeing a new 5-year contract with Dwayne Bowe, it allowed them to spend the franchise tag on left tackle Branden Albert.

It means Albert will earn $9,828,000 in 2013. Considering the Chiefs already have right tackle Eric Winston under contract (4-years, $22m), it seems unlikely they’ll be spending the #1 pick on Luke Joeckel or any other offensive tackle.

They could theoretically move Albert back to guard, a move he’s been vocally opposed to. He played guard at Virginia. It still seems like a costly exercise. They’d have the 2013 #1 pick playing left tackle, Albert and his near $10m salary playing guard and Winston is taking up $7m against the cap this year as the right tackle. Sure, a good offensive line is important. But that looks like overkill.

Albert could also hold-out if they force him to change position. He knows any future big contract will be predicated by his ability to continue as a blind-side blocker. Nobody is going to pay multi-millions for his services as a guard. Surely the Chiefs didn’t just pay $10m for a headache?

So what happens now with the #1 pick?

They may intend to try and recoup picks after the Smith-deal with San Francisco — although that’s easier said than done. Why does anyone really have to get above Jacksonville and Oakland to own the top selection? The Chiefs saying they’d like to trade down would be like any of us saying we’d appreciate a night on the town with Megan Fox, with an invitation for coffee afterwards. Well.. duh. Neither situation, sadly, appears likely.

Bowe’s cap hit will likely be substantial after signing a long-term contract. The offensive line is now very expensive and Alex Smith is due nearly $10m in both 2013 and 2014. Jamaal Charles’ six-year contract pays him over $4m this season and next. They have playmakers, a line and a quarterback earning big money. A serious case can be made for the Chiefs turning their attention to defense.

If they stay put, I think it might come down to two guys — Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd.

There’s not a desperate need for an edge rusher in Kansas City with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston on the roster, but Jordan showed at the combine he has genuine elite athletic potential. I do think he has a chance to become a star at the next level. No offense to Mr. Houston, but putting Jordan across from Hali would create one of the best pass rushing tandem’s in the league. It’d certainly ask a few questions of Peyton Manning in Denver. Andy Reid knows he doesn’t just need a new offensive direction, he has to find a way to stop Manning to win the AFC West.

It’d be unusual for a team to draft a five technique with the #1 pick, but it seems like a lot of teams are really high on Sharrif Floyd’s back-story, upside and physical attributes. If he’s been graded as the best player in the draft then he has a shot to go first overall. If they have ambitions of transitioning to a 4-3 in the future, he’s also scheme diverse. The contract at #1 isn’t so big these days that you’re paying a ridiculous salary for a position of secondary importance. It might only be a matter of time before we see a non quarterback, left tackle or edge rusher go first overall.

Right now, I’d put Oregon’s Jordan down as the favourite to be the top pick.

Whatever happens, Andy Reid is making the off-season fun already.

Seattle’s options at defensive tackle dwindling

Sadly, neither Henry Melton or Randy Starks will be available in free agency. Both players were tagged by Chicago and Miami respectively. The two most attractive options for Seattle in free agency are no longer available.

Other players, such as Oakland’s Desmond Bryant or unattached Cullen Jenkins, are still out there. Jenkins is having his visit to Seattle today. Who knows, maybe he never makes that trip to San Francisco (his next scheduled stop)? The Seahawks also have the option of re-signing Alan Branch.

I suspect they’ll do something, whether that’s before March 12th with Jenkins or during free agency. The Seahawks only have two out of contract starters — Branch and Leroy Hill. Although not a starter, I think they view the Jason Jones position with equal importance. He too is a free agent. Going into the draft needing to replace two defensive linemen isn’t a desirable position to be in. It makes some degree of logic to at least entertain the possibility of a modest free agent investment to keep a few options open.

Depending on the price, I’d welcome Branch back at this stage. I think he’s had a solid two years with the team despite being asked to fill a position that’s quite foreign to a player of his size (three technique). The fact he can cover Red Bryant at the five and play inside has some value. Teams switching to a 3-4 this off-season might be willing to pay him more money to fill the nose tackle slot. At the right price, I say bring him back.

It is disappointing to see both Melton and Starks leave the market. It’s not a huge shock that Chicago held onto their prize asset, but it’s only recently that Starks emerged as a tag candidate in Miami. A likely target for Seattle based on his ability to anchor versus the run while still collapse the pocket, Miami made the right move keeping him alongside Paul Soliai. It’s basically a one-year $8m rental for the Dolphins.

While this is a good year for defensive tackles in the draft, there isn’t really anyone you want to fight for at #25. It’s easy to say in January and February (as we did) that this is a deep class. You could draft a Sylvester Williams, Kawann Short, Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams (for example). As we get closer to the draft though, most of those options just seem, well, underwhelming. The options at defensive end (LEO), receiver and tight end however seem more appealing.

Players to receive the franchise tag: Jairus Byrd (Buffalo), Henry Melton (Chicago), Michael Johnson (Cincinnati), Anthony Spencer (Dallas), Ryan Clady (Denver), Pat McAfee (Indianapolis), Branden Albert (Kansas City) and Randy Starks (Miami).

Notable players who weren’t tagged before the deadline: Ed Reed, Paul Kruger, Aqib Talib, William Moore, Brent Grimes, Cliff Avril, Sebastian Vollmer, Danny Amendola, Desmond Bryant, Jared Cook, Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings.

Matt Barkley back in pole position?

Here at Seahawks Draft Blog, we get a lot of things wrong. It happens. But one of the things I think we’ve got right this year is not buying into the Matt Barkley-is-garbage bandwagon.

Today I noticed two articles to support that stance. The first — by NFL.com’s Albert Breer — notes different quotes from personnel executives, GM’s and scouts on whether anyone can usurp Geno Smith to be the first quarterback off the board. The consensus generally seems to be that Barkley can:

One NFC personnel executive said that Barkley, from a “football smarts” standpoint, is rare, comparable with Andrew Luck when he came out last year. In fact, when asked on Monday if anyone could pass Smith, the exec texted to say, “I think (Barkley) already has.”

Second, Barkley’s 2012 stumble is explainable. He lost his left tackle, Matt Kalil, to the NFL, and an injury to his center, Khaled Holmes, left USC’s line in shambles. A series of injuries at tight end didn’t help, either. Besides all that, the locker room melted down around him.

Barkley admitted to some NFL folks in Indy that he tried to do too much as a senior. An NFC general manager who still likes Barkley said, succinctly, that the quarterback’s problem was that he was “coloring outside the lines” last fall.

I don’t know if it’s a California thing, or a USC thing, but a lot of people have been quick to come down on Barkley. The guy can play. Take away Russell Okung, injure Max Unger, have Pete Carroll replaced with Lane Kiffin and swap Seattle’s defense with eleven scarecrows and let’s see how Russell Wilson does in 2013. That’s basically what Barkley had to work with. The Trojans were a complete shambles last season.

Was the quarterback blameless? Not at all. But it’s funny how similar statistically he was in 2011 when many considered him a top-ten pick. Those condemning Barkley love to point to the fact he had Marqise Lee and Robert Woods to throw to. So did Max Wittek when he laid a couple of eggs against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.

The other thing people love to point to is a lack of arm strength. Nobody will ever argue that Barkley has a big arm. He doesn’t. But neither is he Kellen Moore-standard as some joker suggested recently. That really is a laughable comparison.

He won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. Teams utilising a vertical passing offense won’t show much interest. Others who are prepared to play a similar way to Seattle — run the ball, lots of play action utilising a point guard quarterback — will probably love the guy. To quote again from Breer’s piece today:

Barkley is at his best when he’s playing quarterback like a point guard, focusing on setting up others to make plays rather than being asked to make plays on his own.

He also notes:

One NFC personnel executive said that Barkley, from a “football smarts” standpoint, is rare, comparable with Andrew Luck when he came out last year. In fact, when asked on Monday if anyone could pass Smith, the exec texted to say, “I think (Barkley) already has.”

This brings me to the second article I wanted to highlight today, written by Dan Pompei from the NFP. He notes that the focus within the NFL right now is to find the next Russell Wilson. Not by drafting another underrated 5-10 quarterback, but by finding a player that shares the same level of work rate and football IQ to put themselves in a position to be successful:

“The reason quarterbacks have success is because they are leaders,” one NFC general manager said. “Russell Wilson absolutely reinforces that. You have to feel comfortable with that. Did Christian Ponder have everything you look for? No, but he had some leadership to him. I’m not surprised he went in the first round. Minnesota got comfortable with the leader. That’s a valuable trait, over the arm strength.”

So which prospect in this draft has the best combination of intangibles and ability? According to multiple front office men surveyed by NFP, it’s Southern Cal’s Matt Barkley. As a result, some believe his stock is back on the rise after taking a season-long dip.

Different execs lauded Barkley for his anticipation, his communication skills, his personality that lights up a room, and his pocket presence. Another said he had the best instincts and ability to see the field.

Asked which quarterback was most impressive in terms of conveying leadership in his combine interview, one general manager said, “I think Barkley is special that way. He has some ‘it’ factor to him. The personality is there with Barkley. We ask them questions, try to get a feel for how much they love football, and see if they have a special trait that makes people want to be around them and listen to them. It all comes through with him.”

(Pete) Carroll has a better feel for Barkley than most because he coached him at Southern Cal. “No question Barkley is loaded with intangibles,” Carroll said. “He has everything everybody wants. He has had it for some time. He knows what it’s like to be on a big stage at an early age and handle it impeccably.”

When push comes to shove, some GM’s and coaches will be prepared to go into battle with Matt Barkley. They’ll know they need to surround him with a supporting cast, but they’ll work on that. For everyone who thinks this years group of quarterbacks is mediocre (it isn’t, it’s just not as good as last years), wait until you see what 2014 has to offer. I think Barkley will look like a pretty good investment in twelve months time.

I also suspect he’ll be the first quarterback off the board unless someone really has fallen for Geno Smith (it could happen). I think both could be top-10 picks. But Barkley certainly won’t be dropping into round two or even round three as some have suggested.

Lemonier, Joeckel and Swope game tape

Two pieces of game tape for you today. The first shows an interesting Corey Lemonier vs Luke Joeckel match-up from 2012. Well, it would’ve been an interesting match-up. But this is 2012 Auburn we’re talking about. And it’s hard to rush the passer when you’re 21-0 down at the end of the first quarter and 42-7 down at half time. We talked about Lemonier on the blog yesterday.

The second shows Texas A&M receiver Ryan Swope vs Auburn and Mississippi State:

Those arms are a lot stronger than they look.

I usually wait until around December before I start scouting prospects.  Werner was one of the first I watched, and he quickly shot to the top of my draft board.  At the time, he was considered a mid first round prospect.  By the Senior Bowl, he had vaulted into “top five lock” status.

I’m not sure what happened after that.  Reports from NFL scouts began surfacing, saying that they viewed Werner as being just okay.  Good, but not special.  Mike Mayock stated that he didn’t think Werner would be a top ten pick.  Insiders reported that scouting opinions on Werner were polarized.  And all of this occurred before February’s NFL combine in Indianapolis.

Dion Jordan and Ezekial Ansah had two of the more over-rated combine performances in recent memory, posting much slower times in drills than guys like Von Miller or Bruce Irvin in recent years.  But even a 4.6 forty looks pretty electric in this pass rusher class, where big names like Werner and Moore were big disappointments.  Werner ran a 4.81 time, which is actually slower than defensive tackle Datone Jones (4.80).  Jones’ had a superior 10 yard split as well.

This can’t help Werner’s draft stock, especially as Dion Jordan and Ezekiel Ansah are rocketing up boards.  Barkevious Mingo seems to be holding steady as a mid first rounder.  Russ Lande’s most recent mock even has Corey Lemonier going 15th overall.  I can’t help but think that the sudden rise of undeveloped athlete pass rushers and the decline of the slower more physical pass rushers is a sign that the league has noticed what Seattle is doing.

It might help Werner that Jarvis Jones is tanking as well on account of his medical status, and Damontre Moore has been exposed as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect.  That might be enough to keep Werner in the top 20 picks or so.  But what if it’s not?

In terms of teams that need pass rushers at defensive end, there only so many of them, and most of them pick very early.  Sharrif Floyd, Ziggy Ansah, and Dion Jordan all look like top five candidates.  The Jets need a pass rusher at #9, but they run a 3-4 defense and Werner would be an oddball for most 3-4 defenses.  The Titans run a 4-3 defense and might pursue a defensive end, but they have needs all over the place.  The Saints need pass rush help, but are converting to a 3-4 defense.  Then you have the Steelers, who also run a 3-4 but have a history of drafting bigger, slower 3-4 outside linebackers like James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Jason Worilds.  Werner going to the Steelers could make some sense, but as a player who would have to transition to playing standing up instead of on all fours, not to mention that he runs like a fast defensive tackle, even they might pass.

After that you have the Colts, maybe.  Again, a 3-4 defense.  Seattle would then be next at #25.  If teams don’t have a first round grade on Werner as a 3-4 outside linebacker, he could end up a surprise faller on draft day, all the way to Seattle’s pick.

Now comes part two of this discussion:  would Seattle draft Werner?  That poses an interesting question.  I’m not sure if they would.

Seattle drafted Bruce Irvin who ran an official 4.50 forty.  Pete Carroll raved about Irvin’s speed and even called him the “ideal LEO,” a statement he probably wouldn’t have repeated immediately after the Falcon’s game.  Regardless, Pete’s choice of words seemed to indicate that he puts a premium on speed with his pass rush prospects.  Seattle also drafted Dexter Davis who clocked a 4.62 forty and Jameson Konz.  Konz ran a 4.41 forty time and was eventually moved to LEO before being released.

On the other hand, Chris Clemons is probably slower today than he was as a 23 year old 236 pound linebacker coming out of Georgia, and even that Chris Clemons only managed a 4.68.  Raheem Brock had a career year in our system with 10 sacks (including playoffs) during the 2010 season.  Depending on which website you ask, he either ran either a 4.74 or a 4.91.  And it’s probably safe to assume he wasn’t quite that fast during his age 32 season.  Werner’s speed is probably in the neighborhood of both these guys, and both had great success in our system.

Werner looks every bit of his 4.81 time when in coverage or pursuit, but his burst off the snap is at an elite level despite that.  Werner often plays in a four point stance and he uses that stance to coil his body for maximum explosion on the snap.  Werner is a bit of a one trick pony in that he is at his best as a basic edge rusher, and is not as special when trying to spin inside or stunt.  Werner combines an explosive get off with an aggressive downhill angle while keeping his shoulders square- meaning that his inside shoulder is aiming at the tackles chest.  Werner’s signature is then using his inside arm to reach around the tackles outside shoulder and use his excellent arm strength to defeat the incoming punch.  Because Werner’s chest is not available as a target (see picture above), tackles often fail on their initial punch, allowing Werner to explode through the missed block, slipping around the edge.

Werner can bull rush fairly well and can easily shove tackles off balance.  Though he’s obviously very different from JJ Watt, I think it’s the reliance on upper body strength that is the basis of what was for a while a popular comparison.

I think a better comparison is Chris Long of the St. Louis Rams.  Long also plays in a four point stance and has very strong arms.  Long ran a 4.75 forty time at his combine, but plays plenty fast on the football field.  Werner is 6’3″ and 266 pounds.  Long is 6’3″ and 270 pounds.  I think Long is a superior prospect because he is a better athlete and has a more complete pass rush repertoire, but if you said Werner was a poor man’s Chris Long you wouldn’t be off by much.

Bottom line, Werner is a strength based pass rusher that uses excellent edge rush technique and benefits tremendously from an explosive get off.  Within the first second or two, his forty time might as well be irrelevant since he is so explosive in his first few steps.  Werner can spin inside, bull through blockers, and rip through arm blocks, but all those techniques are merely adequate.  Werner’s star power comes from his edge rush, which is why he edge rushes on almost every pass rush attempt.  Werner has decently long arms (33.25″) but plays like he has 35″ arms on tape, I guess just because of how he protects his body from the initial punch and from his pure arm strength.

Werner is inconsistent against the run.  He can get destroyed by a road grader if he isn’t careful, although he usually plays the run smart, even if he doesn’t dominate.  Basically, he’s about what you’d expect from a LEO in run defense, and I’d grade him ahead of alternatives such as Barkevious Mingo or Corey Lemonier as a run defender.

Like Chris Long, I don’t think Werner’s speed hurts him much as a pass rusher.  But speed still matters.  Beating Colin Kaepernick twice is job number one next season.  Seattle will also drop their defensive ends into coverage from time to time.  You don’t want a 4.81 athlete put in those situations.

While I used the argument of Clemons and Brock, I should also point out that both were cheap acquisitions.  Clemons was a throw in as part of the Tapp trade.  Brock was signed off the street in 2010 to a minimum contract.  Seattle’s draft history, though limited, has shown that speed matters.  When Seattle is bargain hunting at the NFL’s garage sale and they see a good buy that won’t saddle them for a decade, they tend to be less picky.

So what will they do if Werner unexpectedly falls into our lap at #25?  It’s a similar situation with John Simon, actually.  Though both are excellent pass rushing prospects, I’m just not convinced they pass the “athlete test” that Seattle seemingly always applies to their draft picks.  John Schneider has recently said himself that his staff grades for athleticism first before moving on to grade for any other criteria.  This regime has a clear history of drafting athletic, versatile, explosive players.  And outside of his get off being explosive, I’m not sure any of those three adjectives apply to Werner.

My guess is that Werner will never be a Seahawk, and I think that’s kind of a shame.  Maybe he won’t reach our pick and we’ll never know either way.  Or maybe he does reach our pick, and we’ll have fifteen interesting minutes to wonder to ourselves what might happen.