It’s funny how memory works.  One of the impressions I had from Seattle’s meeting against Minnesota last year was how unstoppable Harvin seemed.  Earlier today, I looked at Harvin’s game log to see how he did.  He had 10 yards receiving on six targets.  He added 24 yards on 4 rushes.  Was I smoking crack?  Why did I think Harvin was carving us up?

After reviewing that game a bit more, I realized how many close calls our defense had against Harvin.  Passes that just missed, passes caught that were just barely contained, and rushes that might have gone big if not for an ankle tackle here and there.  He may not have had a great game statistically before leaving with injury, but Seattle didn’t have the speed to cover him.  If he had been paired with a better quarterback and if he had played the whole game, I suspect he would have been a nightmare for our defense.  Harvin was on pace for 1334 receiving yards on 120 receptions before that fateful game at Century Link.  There was talk around midseason that he could end up an MVP candidate.

Pete Carroll once called Harvin “arguably the best football player in America” in reference to Harvin as a recruit from Landstown High School in Virginia.  The competition for Harvin as recruit came down to just USC and Florida.  Carroll made a big push, but ultimately lost Harvin to Florida, probably because Harvin wanted to stay on the east coast.  I don’t think Carroll ever forgot about Harvin.  If there is one thing you can count on- it’s that Pete Carroll doesn’t forget the one that got away.  Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, and Bruce Irvin can testify to this.  Now Percy Harvin can as well.

But just as importantly, I think Harvin had a special place in John Schneider’s heart as well.  In Green Bay- where Schneider served as Thompson’s right hand man for many years- they had tremendous success in the draft with receivers.  They followed a system that targeted fast receivers with quick feet and yards after catch ability.

In Seattle, that trend continued, with the team targeting quick receivers like Golden Tate and Kris Durham, as well as acquiring Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Phil Bates, all of whom ran in the 4.4’s or better.  The slowest receiver Schneider has acquired from the draft process is Lavasier Tuinei, and even he ran a 4.53.  The two biggest successes of that group are Tate and Baldwin.  Tate is famous for his ability after the catch, and Baldwin is no slouch himself.  A very common comparison for Tate is a poor man’s Percy Harvin.

After a pair of sneaky strong 2012 seasons from Golden Tate and Sidney Rice, it made sense that Seattle would target an upgrade in the slot over Doug Baldwin, who finally showed the same struggle to remain healthy that made him an otherwise undeserving undrafted free agent in 2011.  Harvin led the NFL in yards after catch per reception last season, and has the kind of rare quickness out of the slot that you will only find a few other places in the league.   Not only did Harvin’s profile perfectly fit Seattle’s preferences, but his ability as a slot weapon, kick returner, and wrinkle in the rushing attack fit perfectly into Seattle’s 2013 offseason needs.

Harvin also brings an added element:  he changes the way defenses have to game plan our offense.  Consider this video where Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave talks about the impact Harvin has on defensive formations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji9kxcbjimM&feature=youtu.be

Harvin’s speed and threat after the catch will not only limit the number of looks defenses can show pre-snap, but it will also force defenses to cover him in the slot with safeties and corners.  If you have a corner on him, that probably means using a nickle defense package.  Nickle packages tend to fare worse against the run, which is pretty nice considering that Seattle led the NFL in rushing percentage last season.  If you cover Harvin with a safety and are not using a nickle package, that means you only have one safety deep, which invites big plays on the deep ball.  If memory serves, Russell Wilson was the 4th highest quarterback in the NFL last season in deep ball throw rate.

It’s very unlikely that Harvin would post 120 catches for 1334 yards in our offense next year.  However, even if he posts Sidney Rice or Golden Tate type production, Harvin could bring a lot of hidden value to the rest of the offense based on his ability to change the way defenses play.

Regarding the trade itself, I don’t think it was a bad trade by any means, but I do think Seattle overpaid.  It was widely assumed just one month ago that Minnesota had no leverage and would be fortunate to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  One anonymous NFL GM even went so far to say that he’d be “shocked” if Minnesota even managed a 3rd.  I think Harvin’s $11 million a year contract is reasonable, but it is still a lot of money to invest at receiver in an offense that spreads the football.  And as Kenneth Arthur recently noted, Seattle owns the NFL’s most expensive offense, despite having a star quarterback making about 1/40th what he deserves.

Even the 7th round pick Seattle surrendered shouldn’t be taken lightly in this loaded draft class.  It’s very possible that the draft picks alone could have turned into two or three good players, and then you have the money aspect which would cover two more good players as well.  So for the price of one Harvin, Seattle gave up four or five contributors- and there is a chance one or two of them could be the next Richard Sherman or Bobby Wagner.  That’s a lot to give up.

Of course, Seattle’s roster is so stocked right now that many draft picks are going to waste anyway, but I don’t think that should be used as an excuse.  You always need more young talent to come in to replace the previous young talent that will inevitably lost to free agency in the coming years.

That said, I also thought Zach Miller was an overpay, and I couldn’t be any happier to have Zach Miller on my team.  I think everyone agrees that Joe Flacco is overpaid, but Baltimore is far better off with an overpaid Joe Flacco than without him.  Being an overpay does not make the Harvin transaction a burden by any means.  Quite the opposite, I think Seattle just got their version of Wes Welker.  The Patriots got Welker for a 2nd and a 7th, and a lot less money, but had they paid a Percy Harvin type price, they obviously wouldn’t have regretted it.  Not that I expect Harvin to post Welker type numbers, but I do think our offense will have a comparable leap forward.

Another trade comparison is Julio Jones.  The Jones trade cost far more in picks (two firsts, a second, and two fourths), but Harvin cost $7 million more a year in salary.  Even at the steep cost of the Jones trade, most people agree that the deal has been justified by Jones’ performances.  I don’t think Harvin is the kind of pure receiving threat that Jones is, but in terms of total contribution (receiving, rushing, special teams, the way he changes defenses) I think it could be argued that he’s at least in the ballpark for total value.

I don’t think this trade proved anything about Seattle’s priorities.  They could have acquired players like Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, or Wes Welker for far less total cost.  The fact that they paid this much with some excellent cheaper alternatives just shows you how highly they value Harvin.  They clearly view Harvin as a 24 year old, MVP type difference maker for their offense.  I don’t think this was a case of buying high because of a need.  I think it was a case of buying high because they felt that Harvin specifically was a “must get” player.

Of course, all the worries about Harvin’s migraines and character risks shouldn’t be brushed aside (although to be fair, Harvin busts his ass on the field and is exactly the kind of “character risk” that would fit in around here).  We’ll see how that works out with time.  If nothing else, Seattle’s emphatic trade for Harvin crystallizes the idea that Seattle highly values speedy, yards after catch receivers.

John Schneider loves black sheep free agents

John Schneider’s modus operandi in free agency has always been “wait and see.”  In 2011, he made a shocking acquisition of Sidney Rice on day four of free agency.  Rice, a one time 1300 yard receiver, drew essentially no interest in the open market.  Seattle saw an opportunity for a potential #1 receiver on a reasonable deal, and pounced.  A few days later, more than a week into free agency, Seattle made an even bigger surprise signing with Zach Miller, who had far less interest than expected on the open market.  The deal for Miller wasn’t the potential bargain that Rice was, but Seattle was hunting for talent for their two tight end sets and Miller fits our multi-dimensional offense about as well as you could ask for.

In 2012, Seattle seemed disinterested in quarterback Matt Flynn, that was until his market didn’t materialize as many expected.  Teams avoided Flynn, unconvinced by his lack of track record and late round tools.  It probably didn’t help that everyone just assumed he’d get “Kolb money”, this during a time when Kevin Kolb was considered a cautionary tale.  Flynn ended up with almost zero market, and Seattle’s view changed.  They ended up swooping in to nab him at 3 years, $19 million, a move that probably would have looked brilliant if not for the thunderous emergence of Russell Wilson.

Of course, this tactic extends beyond big money darlings in free agency.  Black sheep come in all shapes and sizes.  Guys like Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington, Raheem Brock, Brandon Stokely, Anthony Hargrove, Kellen Winslow, Terrell Owens, and Braylon Edwards.  Some of those acquisitions were strikeouts and some were home runs, but all were low cost gambles that on the whole provided the team with a great return on investment.

This year’s black sheep acquisition is Cliff Avril.  Widely believed to be the top pass rusher available, Avril did not generate the market that was expected.  Perhaps citing a lack of run defense, or the theory that Ndamukong Suh acted as Avril’s benefactor, teams seemed wary to hand Avril top pass rusher years and money.  With Clemons being paid nearly $18 million for his age 32 and 33 seasons, coming fresh off an ACL, and with Irvin appearing to be far away from being a true 3-down LEO, adding another pass rusher at end made all kinds of sense for Seattle at the right price.  It’s no surprise then that Seattle was the first team to invite John Abraham for a visit after his release from the Falcons.

When it was announced that Seattle had signed Avril, I was surprised.  When I saw the details, I was stunned.  Fifteen million dollars over two years?  Seriously?  What a great buy low move and as early as day two of free agency no less.

Avril’s game is a bit of a mix between Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin.  Avril’s size, speed, and physique is extremely similar to Clemons.  And like Clemons, Avril can manage against the run without having to sell out for it.  Where he’s like Irvin is how he’s very much an edge rusher that isn’t the same on inside moves.  Avril thrives on attacking the edge and swatting at quarterbacks as he passes by.  This is where I think the Suh concern is very real, because most of Avril’s production occurs because quarterbacks are afraid to step into the pocket.  And without a 1st round pick, or any real answer in free agency, Seattle will find it very challenging to create interior pressure next season.  Of course, Seattle is not done with the offseason, and there are a few rays of hope in the 2013 draft to complete Seattle’s pass rush ((cough) John Simon (cough) (cough)).

For many teams, I don’t know if Avril made sense even at 2/15, but for Seattle’s LEO role he’s a great fit.  I would have happily seen the Seahawks sign him for 5/50 last offseason before he was franchised.  Our defense is built to minimize his issues against the run, and while we probably won’t generate the interior pressure he’s depended on, he didn’t exactly have a secondary quite like ours behind him in Detroit, either.

Of course, this acquisition raises questions about Chris Clemons’ future.  Will Seattle pay almost $18 million over the next two seasons for a 32 year old player fresh off an ACL when cheaper, safer, and frankly, better alternatives are available?  Clemons has been one of the most valuable defensive ends in the NFL, but I doubt he’d bring as much value in 2013 on a bad knee as a healthy John Abraham or Osi Umenyiora would.  Is a healthy 26 year old Cliff Avril worth less than a 32 year old Clemons fresh off an ACL?  With Avril acting as needed insurance, we might see a restructure attempt heading Clemons’ way.

Obviously, nobody expected Seattle to blow the doors off in the first two days of free agency.  But in retrospect, their actions seem almost predictable for how well they fit the established mold.  While the amount is shocking, the fact that Seattle went for Percy Harvin is hardly surprising.  While it was highly unexpected that Avril would find his market so lacking, it is not surprising that it was the Seahawks who took advantage of it.  So far, this has been nothing if not a very John Schneider type offseason.  The Seahawks do not handle free agency like most teams do, and it’s part of the reason they’ve risen so quickly as an NFL superpower.

Cliff Avril has agreed to terms with Seattle, per source.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 13, 2013

Hands up who thought the Seahawks wouldn’t do all that much in free agency?

Days after making a blockbuster trade for Percy Harvin, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have gone out and landed one of the premier free agents on the market. Detroit’s Cliff Avril was being linked with moves to Cleveland and Indianapolis early in the process, two 3-4 teams hunting for pass rushers who can work in space. Avril’s best fit was likely in the 4-3 and he’s en route to Seattle to pen a two year deal (according to ESPN).

Here’s what you need to know — he’s hitting his prime age (turns 27 in April) with 29 sacks and nine forced fumbles in the last three seasons. He’s 6-3 and 260lbs, so he’s in that LEO range. He ran a 4.51 at the combine in 2008 with a 1.52 split. That kind of speed will appeal to this front office. He’s a former third round pick coming out of Purdue.

Yes, he’s benefited a lot from the presence of Ndamukong Suh. This will be a big test to see if he can replicate those numbers without a dominating interior rusher. Yet the Lions thought enough of him to franchise him last year and offer a deal worth $10m per season over three years. He rejected those terms. It’s not clear yet how much he will earn in Seattle.

It’ll be interesting to see how much he’s earning, given Harvin’s new contract. The Seahawks suddenly look like a team chasing a title, sensing a window. They could’ve probably made a cheaper and more modest addition with John Abraham, Dwight Freeney and Osi Umenyiora all on the market. They would’ve all been stop-gaps, however. This stands to be a longer term move.

My initial thought is what does this mean for Chris Clemons? He’s taking up $8.1m in 2013 and might not even be able to make it onto the field. Avril has some similarities to Clemons, he’s kind of a younger version. Can they afford to carry both players plus Bruce Irvin? Perhaps a more relevant question is if they’re all healthy during the season, can they be creative to get all three involved? Could they use more orthodox 4-3 looks, with Avril and Clemons rushing the edge? I suspect if they can afford to keep all three players, they will do. This is a team that appears to be leaving nothing to chance.

It’s probably a nod to the importance of Clemons in Carroll’s three years with the team. They’ve relied almost exclusively on him to create pressure in base defense. Losing him was a bigger blow than maybe we initially considered. Today’s news suggests they almost felt obliged to be aggressive here. They couldn’t afford to go into the season without a proven starting edge rusher.

Carroll consistently mentioned the pass rush needed improving. This hopefully takes care of one aspect — replacing Clemons’ production if he can’t go. It won’t solve the issue alone, however. Seattle still needs to either replace the departed Jason Jones (who ironically has signed for Detroit today) or add a pure-three technique who can start and collapse the pocket.

The signing of Avril also probably ends the concept of Bruce Irvin as the ‘ideal LEO’. Avril’s only signing for two years, but Irvin is already in his mid-20’s. He appears destined to remain a specialist. And that’s fine. He’s at is best with his ears pinned back rushing the passer, not over thinking the play call and selling out to defend the run.

In terms of how this impacts the draft, it could open the door for a weakside linebacker to be drafted early (Khaseem Greene? Arthur Brown?). Perhaps a defensive tackle like John Jenkins or Brandon Williams, or a smaller (!!!) guy like Kawann Short or Sly Williams? Maybe they go offense again? I wouldn’t completely rule out the tight end position, particularly if one of the top three (Ertz, Eifert, Escobar) falls to #56.

Once again Carroll and Schneider keep everyone guessing. In an off-season where nobody really expected Seattle to be big spenders, they’ve been ferocious. In an off-season of surprises, who knows what the next move will be?

In other big free agency news today, Wes Welker made a stunning $12m move to Denver. Tom Brady is writing a letter to ask for his Ugg’s back as we speak. In response, the Patriots quickly snatched up Danny Amendola as a replacement on a $31m deal. He’s requested Ugg’s bearing his initials. And yeah, the Patriots were willing to pay Amendola more than Welker. Jake Long appears to be choosing between the Rams and Dolphins. Louis Delmas is also meeting with St. Louis, while it was revealed they’re paying Jared Cook an astonishing $16m guaranteed. San Francisco added Glenn Dorsey.

Wednesday is usually mock draft day. We’ll do it tomorrow instead. Today is Cliff Avril Wednesday.

Free agency as it happens, with reaction to how each (major) signing impacts the draft.

Andy Levitre (G, Buffalo) to Tennessee
This signing, and the aggressive nature of the Titans’ approach, suggests they won’t draft for the interior offensive line with the #10 pick. Having been linked with Jonathan Cooper (good fit for their zone blocking scheme), the addition of Levitre should allow Tennessee to look elsewhere. And I suspect one of their biggest priorities will be to add one of the best interior pass rushers, such as Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson. UPDATE — The deal is worth an incredible $46.8M over six years with $13M due in 2013 alone.

Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh) to Miami
The Dolphins know they need to surround Ryan Tannehill with talent. They re-signed Brian Hartline and will now add downfield speedster Mike Wallace. The contract is speculated to be hefty, so they’ll need an instant return. They could still add another target with the #12 pick (such as Cordarrelle Patterson) but what seems more likely is they’ll bolster their ranks with a second or third round prospect. Ryan Swope would be perfect, due to his familiarity with the playbook and quarterback. Miami has two second round picks due to the Vontae Davis trade with Indianapolis.

Paul Kruger (DE, Baltimore) to Cleveland
Wonder how this one will go down in Baltimore? Kruger switches teams within the AFC North for a reported $41m contract. The Browns have added a pass-rush partner for Jabaal Sheard and should be able to get their 3-4 defense rolling with Ray Horton on board. They have two quality outside linebackers now. I think they could still target a 3-4 end with pass rush ability, just as Horton used Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. Ziggy Ansah remains an option, but Richardson could be the second coming of Dockett.

Louis Vasquez (G, San Diego) to Denver
Another player moving within the same division, Vasquez jumps ship after only a middling attempt by the Chargers to keep him. This will ensure Peyton Manning stays well protected and the Broncos have a blossoming, young offensive line that should also set the stall for a productive run game. This shouldn’t impact the Broncos draft plans too much. They need to upgrade that secondary.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB) is cut by Buffalo
They really wanted rid, huh? This saves only $450k but it goes to show that teams will take on any kind of saving to just move on from a non-starter. The Bills need a quarterback. And this adds weight to the suggestion they’ll trade up for ‘their guy’ in the draft (as noted in last week’s mock). Despite all the negative press around Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and co, teams will identify guys they like. And in some cases they’ll be aggressive to get them.

Martellus Bennett (TE, New York) to Chicago
The Bears were an option to go tight end at #20, but this gives them some security. Their main priority is to rebuild a rancid offensive line. Gabe Carimi was a bust waiting to happen in round one and the Bears tried to add Phil Loadholt before he re-signed in Minnesota. Jake Long is headed to St. Louis for his first visit, not Chicago. Does he get out of the Rams complex without a deal? If they go into the draft without a left tackle then moving up to get at the trio of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson seems a strong possibility. UPDATE — apparently they’re speaking to Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans).

Delanie Walker (TE, San Francisco) to Tennessee
Replacement for Jared Cook? I for one will be pleased to see Walker out of the NFC West. He always seemed to perform well against the Seahawks. Whether that same success translates to the AFC South, I’m not sure. The Niners found a niche role for him. They are a very creative offense. Tennessee’s is not.

Seattle’s deal for Percy Harvin is now complete!!!

. @seahawks fans: It’s now official. We have a new WR. Welcome to the team, @percy_harvin! #GoHawks #12thMan ow.ly/iPMqQ

— Paul Allen (@PaulGAllen) March 12, 2013

Round-up
In terms of other news so far, Kansas City defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey is visiting with the 49ers. The Buccaneers are being strongly linked with a trade for Darrelle Revis. Nnamdi Asomugha and Antoine Winfield were cut today. The Packers are considered the clubhouse leaders to sign Steven Jackson. If you missed it earlier, Leon Washington was released by the Seahawks.

Pete Carroll speaks
He just did a spot on Sirius FM with Pat Kirwan, pulling out of a free agency meeting to conduct the interview. He described the deal for Percy Harvin as trading up in the draft to get the best receiver. He denied speculation that Sidney Rice could be cut, insisting that wasn’t an option. Carroll left the door open for Leon Washington to return to Seattle on reduced terms. He also insisted they will continue to compete during free agency and will be open to further deals.

And for those wondering…

No. 12 is retired here in Seattle, so @percy_harvin will wear … twitter.com/Seahawks/statu… — Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) March 12, 2013

Dannell Ellerbe (LB, Baltimore) to Miami
Wow — maybe the first big shock of the day? Baltimore is really feeling the effect of signing Joe Flacco to a mega-deal. First they lose Paul Kruger to a division rival, now Dannel Ellerbe heads to Miami for $35m. While the media wax lyrical about Anquan Boldin’s playoff performance, Ellerbe was just as much of a factor on defense. This loss will be felt. Whether he can continue to perform at a high level remains to be seen. The consolation for Baltimore is they’ll be stocked with compensatory picks in 2014. In terms of this years draft — after losing Kruger, Ellerbe and watching Ray Lewis retire, it surely makes linebacker a huge need at #32?

Jared Cook (TE, Tennessee) to St. Louis
The Rams make a big splash. It’ll be interesting to see the terms of the deal. Jeff Fisher knows the player from his time with the Titans. Cook is more potential than production so far, but it’s another weapon for Sam Bradford. They almost had to do something after Seattle’s move for Harvin and San Francisco’s move for Boldin. You need to keep up in this division. Considering the likely size of Cook’s contract, they better hope he delivers on all that promise. This allows the Rams to concentrate on receivers, offensive linemen and defensive backs in the draft. They could also target an outside linebacker. Some names to consider: Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper.

Jermon Bushrod (T, New Orleans) to Chicago
Chicago had to act. They had to improve that line. At least now they have someone who can play tackle. Bushrod joins on a five-year deal. They won’t have to contemplate trading into the top ten. They have a bit more flexibility in the draft. It’s tough needing a franchise left tackle when you’re not drafting in the top ten. The Bears have signed a tight end and a tackle today. In the draft, that could help them improve at guard (Cooper?) or linebacker (Te’o? Minter?). UPDATE — Bushrod’s deal is worth $35.965M with nearly $18m guaranteed. I’m not a fan at that price tag.

Percy Harvin contract news starting to filter through

Harvin gets $25.5 million guaranteed, new-money average of $12.845 million wp.me/p14QSB-7Cnf

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) March 12, 2013

So that’s $14.5m fully guaranteed in 2013 alone, with $25m guaranteed in total. In comparison, Miami is paying Mike Wallace $30m in guarantees with $13-14m per year. The Seahawks are taking a significant cash hit in year one, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of that is bonus and how much is cap. Front loading with a signing bonus will probably make it easier to re-sign others in the future. If it takes up a lot of cap room, it hampers the teams ability to roll cap into 2014 without serious cuts. And it would also hurt their chances of any moderate free agency moves.

Sammie Lee Hill (DT, Detroit) to Tennessee
The Titans are reportedly close to adding another free agent in the form of a defensive tackle. Some had asked whether the Seahawks would show interest here, but it’s hard to know how good Lee Hill actually is. He didn’t feature all that much behind Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Tennessee addressed two big needs with a guard and a tackle. I still think Sheldon Richardson is a good fit at #10.

Philip Wheeler (LB, Oakland) to Miami
The Dolphins keep on rolling. First Mike Wallace, then Dannell Ellerbe and now Philip Wheeler. Jeff Ireland is going to town. I’m not sure if it’s such a great plan — how many teams fall flat on their faces after going crazy in free agency? Wheeler spent one year in Oakland after starting his pro-career in Indianapolis. The Dolphins still need a pass rusher and improvements to the secondary on defense. You can’t help but wonder what they’ll do next?

Isaac Sopoaga (DT, San Francisco) to Philadelphia
The Eagles, who are switching to a 3-4, needed a nose tackle. This fills a big need on a contract worth $12m with $5m guaranteed. What’s more, Philly is also bringing in fellow Niner Ricky Jean-Francois for a visit. San Francisco will have something like 14 draft picks next month, but they have a lot of needs on defense. They’ll need to hit on a few players at this rate. They already lost Delanie Walker today to Tennesse. They could lose Dashon Goldson. Defensive line, cornerback and safety are big needs for the Niners. Shame.

Darrius Heyward-Bey & Michael Huff are cut by Oakland
This isn’t a big surprise. The Raiders are basically looking at a multi-year rebuild. They didn’t have a pick in the first two days of the draft last year, despite introducing a new front office and coaching staff. This year, they don’t have a second rounder as part of the Carson Palmer trade. They have nothing — and I mean nothing — to build around. I sincerely hope the guys in charge get the time they need, but somehow I doubt it. The Raiders are a mess.

Desmond Bryant (DT, Oakland) to Cleveland
A lot of Seahawks fans wanted Desmond Bryant. I was less enthused. He seemed like one of those ‘nearer 30 than 20’ types who gets pumped up a lot but is probably already in his peak. He was a good enough run stopper but not a great pass rusher. And he (probably) just got paid by Cleveland within hours of free agency opening. The Seahawks, in my view, are better off re-signing Alan Branch to a modest deal. Keep the band together, man. Then use the #56 on a pass rusher. Whether that’s a three technique, a Jason Jones replacement or a LEO. In terms of impact on the draft, this increases the chances Oakland takes a Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson or Star Lotulelei at #3. They currently have no starting defensive tackles. It also possible weakens the chances of Cleveland adding to their front seven at #6. However, Ray Horton enjoyed the benefits of Darnell Dockett in Arizona. I wonder if he sees Richardson as a similar type of player? UPDATE — It’s a 5-year, $34m deal for Bryant in Cleveland, including $15m in guarantees. No way the Seahawks were paying that.

Note — I don’t usually post multiple articles in a day. I don’t want to flood you with material and most of the Percy Harvin-trade discussion is going on in the other article. If you want to check it out, it’s a piece on the pro’s and con’s of the trade. And yes, we’ll still be doing a live chat on day one of the draft this year!

So… now that there’s no first round pick any more, what are we going to talk about for the next few weeks?

First of all, let’s put the Harvin trade into context here. A few people have brought up — not unfairly — the point that Seattle’s greatest need (pass rush) is now unlikely to be resolved early in the draft. Here’s the thing though. Let’s assume Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd leave the board early next month. Let’s assume Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Ziggy Ansah, Datone Jones and others also disappear quickly. What are you left with?

Kawann Short? Sylvester Williams? Are they really going to solve this big need?

What about the other receivers? I’m a big fan of DeAndre Hopkins, but is he going to offer explosive playmaking skills? Can you rely on Keenan Allen or Justin Hunter to stay healthy and have an impact at the next level?

Yes the Seahawks need height at receiver and will now field a corps involving 5-10 Golden Tate, 5-10 Doug Baldwin and 5-11 Percy Harvin. But what was the alternative? Allen is 6-2. Hopkins is 6-1. Hunter is 6-4. Are any of those guys likely to have the kind of impact Harvin could have? Very, very unlikely.

I’ve agonised over the last 7-8 mock drafts I’ve done trying to find that ‘unique’ talent the Seahawks would probably look for and most of the time came out empty handed. It’s difficult to find defining difference makers in the late first round. It just is.

Simply put, Harvin was better than any of the options available. I’m sure that’s how Pete Carroll and John Schneider saw this. They looked at the class, looked at who might be available at #25. Then they decided Harvin was that much better than anyone else they could bring in.

Ask yourself who you’d rather have the day after the first round of the draft concludes — Percy Harvin, Kawann Short, Sly Williams or DeAndre Hopkins. I suspect most people will say Harvin. He’s the only player likely to scare the living the daylights out of the rest of the NFC West.

If anything, the trade makes the draft even more intriguing now. It’s a deep class and the Seahawks will still be able to get a good player at #56 (if they keep the pick). What’s more, we’ve kind of been given a direction now. They almost certainly won’t be drafting a receiver in round two. Given the need to address the defensive line and WILL position, it’s pretty safe to assume that’s what they’ll do in round two. Although you never know with this front office.

Of course, free agency could change things even further. For now, let’s look at some of the options at #56.

At defensive tackle, don’t rule out the possibility of Kawann Short or Sylvester Williams making it into the late second. Both players are slightly older (24 and 25 respectively during their rookie seasons) and lack the kind of explosive, difference making skills to guarantee an earlier selection. Right now I have both going in the top half of the second round. The depth at defensive tackle and possibility of ‘the big three’ going in the top-15 could force others down the board as demand lightens. Don’t be surprised if Jesse Williams, John Jenkins and Johnathan Hankins also suffer as a consequence. Hey, there’s every chance all five of these players go in the top-40. Just don’t be shocked if they last a little longer than expected.

Beyond that, Brandon Williams has shown enough athletic potential at 341lbs to combat his small-school upbringing. He’s intriguing. A little inexperienced in some cases and he might need to learn a few extra counters. Yet he moves unnaturally well for a guy at that size. USF’s Cory Grissom similarly impressed during the Senior Bowl work outs and the combine. Montori Hughes has a laundry list of character issues but there’s just something about him that looks right. Jordan Hill remains a favourite of ours on tape although he did look limited athletically in Indianapolis.

As much as improving the pass rush is important, I suspect the Seahawks want to keep size up front. Harvin makes the offense more explosive. They’re going to be leading in a lot of games anyway, which in turn helps the pass rush. Playing stout against the run early on could be more important than ever. It’s easier to ‘tee off’ on the pass rush with a healthy lead.

I suspect they’ll continue to lean on the ‘Jason Jones role’ as a situational pass rusher. Datone Jones appeared the most likely fit here but he’s unlikely to make it to round two. We’ve discussed Margus Hunt many times on the blog and he could be in play at #56. He’s not a polished, orthodox pass rusher. He’s still an athlete playing football. Yet physically he has a ton of upside and he kind of feels like the type of player this team would love to draft. It’s a little boom or bust, but you can see him working inside on third down and playing some edge too. His 4.6 speed and 6-8, 277lbs frame remains intriguing. He could be a first rounder based on upside or a sixth rounder based on the fact he’s a discus thrower chasing a football. His stock is impossible to predict.

In terms of defensive ends or LEO’s — Corey Lemonier’s combine performance makes it unlikely he will be available. He could be a mid-first rounder. Tank Carradine is having his tire’s pumped a little too much recently (in my view) but his ACL injury will push him back. Possibly to #56. It just depends on whether the Seahawks want another pass rusher coming off a serious injury.

Alex Okafor could be there in the late second — not an obvious LEO due to a lack of initial burst and speed, but he has excellent technical skills and hand use. John Simon is a favourite on this blog and could be an asset even in round two.

The best value might come at linebacker. If Khaseem Greene or Arthur Brown last into round two, don’t be surprised if Seattle makes a move in that direction.

Other players who could be on the radar later: Armonty Bryant (Kip’s favourite, LEO), Quinton Dial (DT or five technique depth), Abry Jones (DT), Michael Buchanan (LEO), Lavar Edwards (Jason Jones), Travis Long (LEO), Devin Taylor (LEO or Jason Jones), Cornelius Washington (LEO), Everett Dawkins (DT), Josh Boyd (DT), Jamie Collins (LEO or WILL), Brandon Jenkins (LEO).

There’s always the chance for further trades too, be it up or down the board. We might not have much to get excited about on day one of the draft this year, but there’s plenty to discuss over the next few weeks. Does anyone really expect it’ll be a boring draft with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in control? I didn’t think so.

Percy Harvin links

Danny O’Neil reports that the 2014 pick heading to Minnesota is likely to be a 3rd rounder. For a team that found a franchise quarterback in that range, they sure like to trade away third round picks.

Jason Cole writes that Harvin’s lack of trust in Christian Ponder help drive his desire for a trade. “Percy Harvin wanted two things this offseason: Money and a better quarterback.”

Mike Sando says the NFC West would rather prepare for the #25 pick in the 2013 draft than face Percy Harvin: “Harvin… is a threat to score as a receiver, runner and kickoff returner. Harvin has 20 touchdowns as a receiver, four as a runner and five as a kick returner.”

ESPN has quotes from Golden Tate on the news of the trade. Tate: “The Seahawks are trying to do whatever they think is necessary to put together a Super Bowl quality team. If this is one of the steps they think works to accomplish that, then that’s their choice. I don’t think it will impact any of our work habits. We are still going to grind and let the cards play out the way that they will.”

Marc Sessler notes the size of the story: “It’s a stunning move that will strengthen an already powerful Seahawks roster with a premier wide receiver and return threat, while simultaneously ending Harvin’s often rocky four-year tenure in Minnesota. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for Vikings fans. Harvin was the Vikings’ most exciting player, with the ability to scorch defenses as a pass-catcher and pick up devastating chunks of yardage in open space.”

Gregg Rosenthal believes it’s a great move by the Seahawks: “Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider have been nothing if not bold since arriving Seattle three years ago to re-make the Seahawks. They think different. They build different. They aren’t afraid to take chances.”

Brock and Salk react to the news today with Tim Hasselbeck and Adam Schefter.

Adrian Peterson isn’t happy:

The best all around player I ever seen or you’ll ever see! Goes to Seattle! I feel like I just got kicked in the stomach. Several times!!!

— Adrian Peterson (@AdrianPeterson) March 11, 2013

In other news, the 49ers traded a 6th round pick for Anquan Boldin’s four regular season touchdowns.

So, who expected to see this today?

The Seahawks will acquire Percy Harvin from the Minnesota Vikings for the #25 pick in 2013, a seventh rounder this year and a mid-round pick in 2014. Life is never dull with Pete Carroll and John Schneider in town.

Firstly, Harvin is a tremendous playmaker. Without doubt one of the best in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell worked with him in Minnesota for two years (his rookie season in 2009 and the following year). Pete Carroll also tried to recruit Harvin for USC in 2005. He met with the Gators and the Trojans and nobody else. He chose Florida, which isn’t a total shock given he’s an east coast guy (he’s originally from Virginia). Basically, they aren’t making this deal without deep inside knowledge in the player.

You can put him anywhere on the field and he’ll make plays. Receiver, runner, kick returns. He’s a nightmare to match-up against. If the Seahawks want to persist with the read-option within their offense, Harvin can be effective there too. He certainly was for the Gators in college. Speed, power, game-changing skills. He has the works.

Carroll and Schneider want unique players. Difference makers. Playmakers on both sides of the ball that possess rare qualities that you just don’t find every year in the draft. Harvin doesn’t just fit the bill, he’s the poster boy. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in the league. There isn’t another Percy Harvin in this draft class. That’s why he fits in Seattle.

Then there’s the other side of Percy Harvin…

His fall out with Minnesota was ugly. Very ugly. It was reported he clashed with Head Coach Leslie Frazier in front of other staff members and players. He was seen visibly screaming at his coach in the Vikings defeat to Seattle in November for no obvious reason. ESPN’s Tom Pelissero reported on the fall-out at the end of the season:

TV cameras caught Harvin waving his arms and screaming at Frazier on the sideline over his frustration with the Vikings’ struggling offense.

According to four NFL sources, Harvin and Frazier had another heated exchange weeks later in front of some players and staff members, fueling speculation about a deteriorating relationship that could spell the end of Harvin’s four seasons in Minnesota.

Details of that altercation remain clouded, though it is believed to have begun in the training room at the Vikings’ facility.

CBS Minnesota offered this take:

Multiple sources tell Mike Max that Harvin had an embarrassing tirade directed toward Frasier, disrespecting the coach during the season when Harvin was sidelined with an injured ankle.

Teammates were present, and Max was told that is when Harvin left the team and was put on injured reserve.

Sources say teammates were disappointed in Harvin’s actions and the organization has moved toward less tolerance for that behavior.

Harvin apparently had a similar incident when Childress coached the team.

The Vikings will try to trade him, Max reports, as Harvin does have market value.

It was quite a bizarre situation given Minnesota’s successful season where they made the playoffs. Really, what was there to complain about?

Harvin’s had two Head Coaches in his pro-career and fallen out with both. Will Carroll be the hat trick?

There’s also a substantial injury history.

In 2009 and 2010 he suffered severe problems with migraine’s and was constantly listed on the injury report as a consequence. He’s also had ankle, hamstring, hip, shoulder and finger injuries. In 2009 he was listed as questionable seven times. He was on the injury report eight times in 2010, seven times in 2011 and five times in 2012 before being placed on injured reserve (missing Minnesota’s last five games). He’s competitive for his size when he’s actually on the field, but he’s also been quite brittle.

According to Jason Cole, Harvin is also targeting ‘Calvin Johnson’ type money:

While the Vikings and Harvin’s agent, Joel Segal, have yet to exchange contract proposals, it’s believed that Harvin wants money closer to what Calvin Johnson got from Detroit in 2012 (eight years, $132 million) than to Jackson or Bowe. That’s an average of $16.5 million per year compared to a little more than $11 million for Jackson and Bowe. As one person put it about Harvin, he considers himself a “special” player and executives around the league have fed that attitude by telling people close to him how difficult it is to cover Harvin.

The Seahawks will have the framework for a new deal agreed before any trade is completed. However, this will not be cheap. And it makes you wonder if other players — like Sidney Rice ($9.7m cap hit) or Zach Miller ($11m cap hit) — will be asked to re-work their deals given their substantial salaries in 2013. Cutting Rice would potentially save $6m in cap money — does that become an option? What about releasing Leon Washington (due $2.875m) given Harvin’s quality as a return-man? And surely moving Matt Flynn now becomes even more of a priority?

Then there’s this article by Jeremy Fowler to consider, where he notes other concerns about Harvin:

Percy Harvin “epitomized the climate” of player entitlement under coach Urban Meyer at the University of Florida, according to a Sporting News report posted online Monday, April 9.

Harvin, who played for the Gators from 2006-08, reportedly was one of three players who missed the 2008 season opener after allegedly failing drug tests for marijuana – penalties dictated by university policy – although Meyer publicly blamed an injury for Harvin’s absence.

Harvin also refused to run stadium steps with the rest of the team during offseason conditioning before the 2007 season, according to the Sporting News, and once allegedly threw wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales to the ground by his neck.

Harvin reportedly wasn’t punished for either of those incidents, according to the report, and was treated differently as a member of Meyer’s “Circle of Trust.”

Harvin told strength and conditioning coaches while boycotting stadium runs, “this (expletive) ends now,” according to the report, and the team played basketball as conditioning the next day.

It makes you wonder how this undoubtedly talented but also flawed player will respond to a big new contract. Will this play to Harvin’s entitled nature? Or will he be able to buy into Carroll’s ‘all-in’ philosophy and knuckle down? He’s not managed a 1000-yard season in his career yet, which is incredible given his talent-level. He needs to stay healthy and stay away from drama. If he can do that, he’ll be among the league’s best.

Harvin’s on-field talents will give Russell Wilson a truly dynamic receiver to target. Off the field though, will he be willing to give up time to work with such an intense character like Wilson, who’s a stickler for detail and putting in the hours?

Despite all the perceived negatives both Carroll and Darrell Bevell know the guy and aren’t walking into this blindfolded. They’re acquiring a player who doesn’t even turn 25 until May. And the fact is nobody is going to look forward to facing Wilson, Harvin, Marshawn Lynch and co.

Finally, what does this trade say about the draft? The Seahawks perhaps feel Harvin is too good to pass up. It could also be a review of what’s available in the late first round range. If they feel nobody gets close to Harvin’s level of talent (and they don’t) you can understand the deal. However, there’s little chance now for Seattle to attack their pass rush problems early. The options at #56 won’t be great. So while the offense continues to improve, there will be some concern that the biggest hole within the team will remain unresolved. Signing Harvin to a big contract won’t leave much room to make many other moves in free agency after all.

Yet think of it like this. Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd were way out of range. The top pass rushers will be long gone too, perhaps even Datone Jones. So if you’re looking at Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams or Percy Harvin, this is a no-brainer, right? Over the next few days we’ll focus on options with the #56 pick, which presumably will be spent on a defensive player (if they keep the pick).

There’s a lot to get excited about as you’ll see in the video below. It’ll make day one of the draft that little bit less exciting, but the Seahawks just acquired one of the best playmakers in the league. If they can keep him in tow, this could be a defining day for the franchise. It’s a big ‘if’ though.

What do you make of the trade? Let us know in the comments section and vote in the poll below.

During an interview at the Scouting Combine Pete Carroll talked about the team’s needs, and one of the things that struck me was his seeming ease about the linebacker situation.  He joked about Seattle’s current linebacker situation at weakside linebacker, referring to his “USC backup crew” with a tone of affection.  While upfront about upgrading many areas of the team, Carroll implied that he was only going to seek “someone to compete” with this trio of players.

That group of linebackers- Malcolm Smith, Mike Morgan, and Allen Bradford- all played for Carroll at USC and all ran good forty times.  Bradford had a 4.56 (at 242 pounds), Morgan a 4.46 (pro-day), and Smith a 4.44.  Both Morgan and Smith tilt the scales under 230 pounds, often considered a “cutoff point” for most evaluators.  Bradford was a running back at USC and outside of his time on the practice squad last season, he hasn’t played linebacker since high school.  Factor in Korey Toomer (4.53), a 5th round pick from last season that spent some time on the practice squad, and we have four fast linebackers that can play the weak side already.

We already have a ton of fast linebacker prospects.  Granted, each and every one of them has an issue to deal with.  Mike Morgan is undersized.  Malcolm Smith is undersized and was highly injury prone at USC.  Allen Bradford is learning the ropes again at linebacker.  Korey Toomer was more of an athlete than linebacker last preseason- a player that struggled badly in everything other than his surprisingly potent pass rush ability.

If Seattle acquires another linebacker, and it sounds like they probably will, that player will have to compete with four other players for the final linebacker starting job.  Or maybe Seattle can’t make up their mind and ends up platooning multiple linebackers at the weakside- just like they did last season for Moffitt/Sweezy at guard and Johnson/Guy at big nickle safety.

It wasn’t long ago that I presented the case that Seattle might have to draft a fast linebacker early, because this draft class is thin in that area relative to previous years.  After hearing Pete Carroll’s comments and realizing how athletic our current backup linebackers are, I’m starting to think the opposite might true- Seattle might add a linebacker in the back half of the draft- barring a draft coup at linebacker falling to them in the 3rd or 4th round.  Seattle has the depth and talent to survive a season with a “backup crew” manning the weakside linebacker spot- arguably the least valuable position on our defense- a position where “adequate” is the norm for most 4-3 defenses.

Morgan went undrafted and Bradford was a late round pick by Tampa Bay as a running back that was quickly released that same year.  Seattle signed Bradford off waivers, placed him on the practice squad, and in late December of last year, finally promoted him to the active roster.  Bradford missed most of the 2012 preseason but I personally thought he impressed in his lone performance against Oakland.  His speed and size were plainly evident.  He could lay a hit and played with more instincts than I would have expected.  Toomer was a 5th round pick last year and Smith was a 7th round pick in 2011.  The combined draft expense of these four linebackers was the same as the price the Jets paid Seattle to move down four spots in the second round last year.

As you can see, Seattle is in the business of hunting value at linebacker.  Why does it feel like we’ve seen this before?  It’s because Seattle has used the same scatter shot approach to cornerback and big nickle safety.  Seattle has drafted or acquired via undrafted free agency a corner and a safety in every offseason to date.  That tactic netted us a megastar in Richard Sherman, a pro-bowler in Kam Chancellor, and several quality backups and special teams contributors.

It would appear that so far Seattle is using the same tactic at weak side linebacker.  Malcolm Smith had two touchdowns last season on special teams, and has been no stranger to quality play even though he rarely sees the field.  Mike Morgan filled in for both Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright at times and was a minor star during the 2012 preseason.  He’s a lot like our big nickle safety Jeron Johnson but at linebacker.  Both are players with strong preseason performances and have shown themselves to be adequate or better in real games.  Morgan plays bigger than his 226 pound size and Johnson also plays above his size and speed limitations.  Johnson is a fringe starter (in nickle packages), but a quality one just the same.  Might Mike Morgan be our fringe starter at weakside linebacker in 2013?

If Bradford can build on his good showing in the preseason finale last year, Seattle might already have a fairly robust competition underway for the final starting linebacker job.  And all are fast enough to offer Seattle a fast starter at that position.

Then you factor Korey Toomer’s athletic upside, and you can see why Pete doesn’t seem terribly stressed about weakside linebacker.  He’d still like to add one more, but I no longer think that indicates a priority.  It indicates that he’s in the habit of spending late round picks on scatter shot choices to increase depth and competition, and to perhaps find a diamond in the rough while doing it if he’s lucky.

It’s also possible that Pete Carroll and John Schneider just don’t like this linebacker class very much, and could be holding off for a future offseason which boasts a stronger group, as they did at receiver during the 2012 draft.  I wouldn’t rule that out, especially since this draft isn’t all that great in my opinion for fast linebackers.

With this in mind, I’m going to very quickly post some thoughts on the all the fast linebackers or potential fast linebackers that performed at the combine.  Of course, you will always have non-combine players to watch for (one example being former USC athlete/linebacker Jordan Campbell), so this list won’t be 100% comprehensive, but it should cover all the options that clocked around 4.65 or under (or didn’t run but would be expected to be that fast).  The fastest linebackers run in the mid 4.4s, and the slowest run in the mid 4.8s, so I think 4.65 is a good median to work with.  Remember, these aren’t scouting reports, just quick hits of what I think of each player in a few sentences after watching each of them during the past few weeks:

Zaviar Gooden (4.47): Gooden is the only linebacker this year with clear 4.4s type speed in this draft.  On tape, he is a slight framed looking player but the speed really shows.  I think his instincts are just fine- but he is so aggressive that he often overshoots and misses tackles.  Obviously, with speed like that, Gooden’s upside in coverage is pretty good.  Hands down the fastest linebacker in this draft, but funny enough, he’d only be our 4th fastest linebacker on our team if the Seahawks draft him.  Mid round projection.

Arthur Brown (estimated speed:  4.45 to 4.55 range): Brown did not run at the combine.  Brown has speed and impressive burst, but like Alec Ogletree he is more of an athlete than a linebacker.  Pete Carroll raved about Brown coming out of high school though, calling him the best linebacker he’d seen in many years.  And coming from a guy that ran linebacker U, that’s saying something.  Brown struggled for most of his college career before finally posting a solid season in 2012 for Kansas State.  I don’t think Seattle would draft Brown early, but if he slipped to round three I could see the temptation being there.

Jelani Jenkins (estimated speed: 4.50 to 4.60 range): Jenkins didn’t run at the combine, but you can see on tape that he can cover ground in a hurry.  That’s about the only thing I like about him, though.  He utterly lacks physicality- it’s like watching Kelly Jennings the linebacker.  John Schneider said he thought the underclassman linebacker group was intriguing.  Jenkins is the only underclassman linebacker to possess above average speed (Alec Ogletree ran in the 4.7s).  I’d hate this pick, but it bears watching.  Funny enough, by sheer coincidence both Brown and Jenkins will have their pro days tomorrow (March 12th), so we should get a more scientific idea of their speed by then.  Mid round projection.

Cornelius Washington (4.55): Washington was more of a defensive end for Georgia, but he’s so underdeveloped that it’s not a stretch to draft him as a linebacker/end hybrid and see where he ends up.  His combination of size, speed, strength and athleticism is highly reminiscent of Aaron Curry, which is actually a good thing for a potential late round pick.  Pete Carroll was a huge fan of Curry’s potential before arriving in Seattle and discovering the horrible truth.  Washington could be a player to watch as a high upside project at either outside linebacker or LEO.  Mid to late round projection.

Trevardo Willams (4.57): Standing just 6’1″ with 32″ arms, Williams will not see his game translate as a defensive end in the pros.  However, his build, speed, and diagnosis ability paint a promising picture as a linebacker convert.  If viewed as a linebacker, Williams would be one of the fastest linebackers in this draft despite also weighing 241 pounds.

Jonathan Bostic (4.61): Bostic has just okay speed, basically on the good side of average.  His tape leaves a lot to be desired.  He wears concrete shoes in zone coverage, hardly even tries to get off blocks and reads the run poorly.  If Seattle did draft him, I would be shocked if he made the roster.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Ty Powell (4.64): Powell is a rare player capable of playing at all three levels of a defense.  He played safety for a junior college, but has the size to play defensive end and the speed to play linebacker or safety.  Powell played at the lowest level possible, so it’s hard to judge speed fairly, but he looked fast and there’s a little Bobby Boucher in him as a hitter.  Powell could be a player to keep an eye on in the very late rounds as Seattle likes versatile players with physicality.

Jamie Collins (4.64): Collins made a name for himself at the combine with a towering 41.5″ vertical jump and a combine best broad jump.  Collins played mostly standup end and when he wasn’t doing that he was a 3-point stance end.  He plays the position like a linebacker though, which is why he is often listed as one.  Collins doesn’t handle blocks well and plays mentally slow.  He did have good production, but he played in a small conference and his tape hardly wows.  In a lot of ways, Collins reminds me of a slower Korey Toomer.  Mid to late round projection.

Sio Moore (4.65): Moore is a one of the better linebackers in this draft and boasts one of the most compete packages of skills.  He is worth respecting as a LEO type pass rusher, he’s quick to diagnose, he reads a quarterback’s eyes in zone coverage while trying to hide his presence by staying low, and he’s a good tackler.  If only he had Gooden’s speed, he’d be a star.  Unfortunately, Moore’s speed on tape looks as average as his combine number indicates.  I personally don’t think he’s fast enough for Pete (same goes for Khaseem Green who ran a 4.71), but we’ll see.  Round two or three projection.

AJ Klein (4.66): Though average on the track, Klein is sneaky fast and explosive in short areas.  Klein rarely ventures behind enemy lines and makes his living on damage reducing tackles downfield.  Klein takes on blockers willingly without losing himself to them, and has excellent instincts and reaction speed.  He has the short area burst to be an effective zone coverage player.  Klein’s upside is fairly grounded, but he’s a natural linebacker and you might even say he’s a bargain bin version of Luke Kuechly with less speed and less upside.  Played middle linebacker.  Mid round projection.

Now, compare those times to what Seattle already has.  Smith a 4.44.  Wagner a 4.45.  Morgan a 4.46.  Toomer a 4.53.  Bradford a 4.56.  Wright a 4.75.  Seattle doesn’t need another slow run enforcer like Wright (Mike Morgan did a great job in that role during the preseason despite his size, and Bradford has the size and power to be a natural SAM).  The fastest linebacker in this whole draft might not even crack Seattle’s lineup.  Even the undeveloped athletes at linebacker would be less athletic than many of the options we already have.  That says to me that Seattle probably won’t invest big at linebacker this year, instead opting for a late round or undrafted prospect to bring in for competition.  I could potentially see Seattle showing interest in Arthur Brown if he slides.  A selection of Alec Ogletree, Khaseem Greene, or Sio Moore in the earlier rounds would surprise me.  Gooden, Washington, Williams, Powell and Collins strike me as the most realistic options as they will probably be selected in the rounds 4-7 range of the draft.

*(Interestingly, Malcolm Smith is the brother of Steve Smith the lesser (the one who had 1200+ yards with the Giants in 2009).  Steve Smith was a member of the St. Louis Rams last season.  Another linebacker with a famous brother, Arthur Brown is the brother of the Eagles breakout running back Bryce Brown.)

Better news for Jarvis Jones

We expected to have a better idea of Jarvis Jones’ stenosis issue after the combine, but there were no leaked medical reports to confirm or deny what USC had feared back in 2009. So we were left to speculate. Clearly teams will be wary of anything to do with stenosis, particularly if there are life threatening consequences. Yet Jones wasn’t only cleared to play by Georgia, he also had two relatively healthy seasons in the SEC.

Today, Dan Pompei provided the first piece of seemingly valid information on this matter. And it appears to be good news for Jarvis Jones:

Jones’ neck injury is starting to look like it might be a non-issue on draft day, and there is little chance he will fall out of the top 10. In a medical report that was sent to NFL teams, leading orthopedist Craig Brigham refutes that Jones ever had a significant spinal cord contusion. When he was at Southern Cal, the pass rusher was diagnosed with one, and Southern Cal did not allow him to play in 2010. Jones transferred to Georgia and played two seasons with no problems. Brigham concluded that Jones either had a very mild incident of spinal cord concussion or merely a stinger that has long since resolved. Even if another similar injury occurred, Brigham concluded it would not be a career ending issue. After recently examining Jones, Brigham concluded, “Jarvis is cleared to play without restriction.”

Of course, this is only one man’s take. USC and Georgia clearly didn’t share the same opinion on his future. There’s a chance other experts (including team doctors) will diagnose the situation differently than Craig Brigham.

If you want to assume they won’t, then Jones is back in contention to be a top-15 pick. This isn’t a defining report that renders the issue a non-factor. Even so, it only takes one team to make a similar assessment to ensure he is an early pick next month.

Cullen Jenkins update

Anyone hoping he’d be signing in Seattle will be disappointed…

Former Eagles DL Cullen Jenkins reached agreement on a three-year deal with the New York Giants.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 10, 2013

Numbers: Cullen Jenkins and Giants agreed to a three-year, $8 million deal that included a $2 million signing bonus and $3 million gtd.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 10, 2013

Eddie Lacy still injured

According to Adam Schefter, Lacy will not be able to work out at Alabama’s pro-day on March 13th. He missed the combine in February due to a hamstring problem. He will conduct an individual work out at some point but no date has been set.

It’s not been a great off-season for Lacy so far. He turned up at Indianapolis 11lbs heavier than his listed playing weight, then admitted he’d not necessarily kept in shape since the Notre Dame game.

He ended the season on fire, making the most of Alabama’s top-tier offensive line. For teams like St. Louis that’ll be looking for a power back, he makes some sense even in round one. Yet if the injury issues linger, if he can’t work out before the draft and if teams are concerned about his conditioning, he could easily drop. Plenty of teams find viable runner’s later in the draft. And while there’s always an Alfred Morris or Arian Foster to be had, a bad off-season can have an impact.

Personally, I’d like to avoid facing Lacy twice a season. The Rams are going to need a productive back to compete with Seattle and San Francisco in the NFC West. Lacy fits the bill, but is he working his way out of first round consideration?

Revisionist history

Bucky Brooks – March 2013. He was asked where Geno Smith would rank among the 2011 quarterbacks (Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder):

“I like him better than I liked Jake Locker. I think I liked him a little more than I liked Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert I wasn’t a big fan of. ”

Bucky Brooks – March 2011. He had Gabbert at #5 in his mock draft:

“You (Arizona) better take Blaine Gabbert at five. Big, athletic quarterback. Strong arm. Can make all the throws. Ken Whisenhunt will build an offense around his skills and I think the Arizona Cardinals offense will get back on track.”

Kawann Short unimpressive against Wisconsin

Watching a defensive lineman competing against Wisconsin is always a good benchmark. The Badgers consistently churn out big, aggressive, dominating run blockers who do a decent job protecting the quarterback.

It stands to reason that any defensive tackle drafted by the Seahawks is going to need to be able to defend the run. They have to be stout. While the teams biggest priority is to improve the pass rush, they can’t afford to walk into two games against the Niners with a weak interior defensive line. For all of Colin Kaepernick’s athletic ability outside of the hash marks, they’re still a power running team.

Purdue’s Kawann Short is a decent pass rusher, with good finishing speed and a decent swim move. He exploits gaps and works well into the backfield. At the Senior Bowl he was probably the most productive defensive lineman on the field after Ziggy Ansah.

Yet against Wisconsin (see below) I think he struggled. And that’s not a particularly good sign for anyone hoping to see Short in the Pacific North West.

It’s spring forward tonight, meaning that we all lose an hour of sleep.  I was going to do my Tyler Eifert writeup tonight, but in the interest of getting some sleep I’ll just link this offseason plan– rife with rosterbation- that I just completed on the Seahawks.net forums.   It’s a long read but if you are into this kind of thing you might enjoy it.  I think it’s extremely doubtful that Seattle will draft a tight end in round 1, but if they did, I think Eifert would be the perfect match for our offense.

Cutting through the hype

This time of year is good for two things — hype and reality.

On the one hand, the combine is fresh in the memory and there’s a new batch of players to overrate. If you ran well, jumped well or interviewed well in Indianapolis, the chances are you’ve ‘boosted’ your stock. Congratulations.

In some cases it’s a genuine boost. In others it’s worthless deception. Admittedly some players are just that good physically that they really do save their best football for the NFL. Others find out that running and jumping well in shorts doesn’t automatically make you a superstar.

Hype also works the other way too. If you’re not quite the brilliant athlete everyone was hoping, you can sink like a stone.

We also discover a few nuggets of truth during the months of February and March. There are leaks in the media where you discover certain players are higher on boards than expected. Sharrif Floyd is a great example. On tape, he had a pretty good year. Most people saw him as a first or second round pick. And yet here we are, a few weeks later, and he could go top five. Whether the tape was deceiving or not, it appears to be true that he’s a favourite among scouts and GM’s. Only time will tell if it’s reasonable to put him among this years elite. I’m sceptical personally. Because while he has a fantastic back story and a lot of talent, he doesn’t exactly live in the backfield, he has short arms, he’s not a sensational athlete and he’s not an edgy, penetrative pass rusher like Sheldon Richardson.

Even so, there are a few players out there who are maybe having their tires pumped up a little too much, even more than Floyd…

Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU) — he ran well at the combine and flashed a lot of physical talent. Ansah also put in a MVP performance in the Senior Bowl. Suddenly everyone from Daniel Jeremiah to Todd McShay is stepping up to praise this apparent top-10 lock. Yet it’s easy to forget how inexperienced he looked this season, often struggling to have any impact as an edge rusher. He ended 2012 with just 4.5 sacks. During the Senior Bowl workouts he appeared lost — like he’d only put pads on for the first time that week. In terms of pure potential, there’s a lot to like here. But he’s not even close to the level Jason Pierre-Paul was at when he turned pro, which is saying something. Expecting him to have an instant impact would be optimistic. And yet he turns 24 in May. When you draft a pass rusher in the top ten you kind of want a decent return quickly. Will we see that from Ansah? In a matter of weeks he’s gone from solid first rounder who could make it to Seattle at #25 to possible top-five pick. Perhaps it’s time to put on the brakes?

Matt Barkley (QB, USC) — last year people were lining up to call him a top-ten pick. I suspect if he had declared, Mike Holmgren would’ve made him the third quarterback to leave the board within the top five picks of the 2012 draft. He’d beaten Oregon in impressive fashion, been the leader of a team facing three difficult seasons and looked so ready for the pro’s. Yet he didn’t run to the NFL and instead opted for one more year in college — to try and achieve that elusive BCS Bowl appearance and a PAC-12 title. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out as planned. USC bombed, the defense collapsed, the offensive line couldn’t block four scarecrows and Barkley’s game suffered as a consequence. And now people are lining up to say he’s a fourth round pick. At the same time, E.J. Manuel — who struggled to convince anyone he was a competent passer at Florida State — is being promoted as a possible first round pick because he runs well and can throw further than most people. I’ll take the accurate, poised, technically gifted quarterback every time. But that’s just me.

If anyone was wondering where the Greg Cosell ‘fourth round grade’ quotes came from by the way, here you go. Cosell states he’s seen a lot of NFL tape and therefore “knows” what works in the NFL. It might be worth “knowing” that a guy who is nearly 6-3 is not “a little short”. Or that he once said this: “The most overlooked characteristic when discussing quarterbacks is accuracy.”

For what it’s worth, Cosell likes Zac Dysert and Matt Scott this year. He compares Scott favourably to Russell Wilson, a player he didn’t like last year — comparing him to Seneca Wallace. He also thought Ryan Lindley made “the most ‘wow’ throws of any quarterback in the draft” last year. Yes, including Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. He also listed Lindley as the most intriguing quarterback from the 2012 class. I doubt that’ll get repeated any time soon by the cult of Cosell.

Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) — don’t get me wrong, I think Fisher is a fine pro-prospect. Yet it’s funny how impressions change when one big guy runs slightly faster than another. Luke Joeckel just had one of the best seasons you could wish to see from a left tackle. It helps that he was blocking for one of college football’s more elusive quarterbacks. It further helps that he was flanked by perhaps an equally talented right tackle in Jake Matthews. However, Joeckel shut out top-class opponents most weeks in the SEC. He was flawless. What’s more, it comes so naturally to him. You wouldn’t think he looks like an elite tackle based on his appearance. His arms lacks definition, he’s not a brilliant athlete. He’s just a fantastic football player. But shortly after the combine, Fisher was ahead according to many people. Why? Because he ran faster. Because he moved faster in drills. Like that even matters. Whoever takes Fisher will get a good player. Whoever takes Joeckel will probably get a better one.

Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) — depending on who you ask, Mingo is a possible top-ten pick. In fairness others have countered that (Mayock, Jeremiah) by giving him a more realistic grade in the 25-40 range. Indeed Mayock continues to list Mingo as only the third best 3-4 linebacker in this class. I watched an awful lot of LSU in 2011 and 2012. I recently went back and watched another seven games just to focus on Mingo, suspecting he could be an option for Seattle if he drops. He just wasn’t that effective. He collected a measly 4.5 sacks this season despite featuring with a number of talented team mates. He’d flash every now and again. He started the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson on fire. Then he stopped. He disappeared. Physically he looks like the perfect LEO — tall, lean and fast. He’s a great athlete. Yet he’s ineffective. A bright combine performance has seemingly boosted his stock, but when you weigh just over 240lbs and speed is your main weapon — you should be doing well in Indianapolis. I think his ceiling will be New Orleans at #15.

Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) — He ran faster, jumped higher and basically did everything better than most receivers at the combine. Yet here are a few things that are also important. Catching the football consistently. Competing for the football in the air. Making a tough grab over the middle on fourth down in double coverage to extend a game winning drive. DeAndre Hopkins didn’t run in the 4.4’s, but he did everything else on tape that you want to see from a leading receiver. Unfortunately he’s only an average-to-good athlete. Yet during the combine drills involving routes and catching, Hopkins looked crisp, confident and better than anyone else on the field. Hunter has plenty of upside and didn’t get much help from Tyler Bray. He was also battling back from a nasty ACL injury in 2011. But if you asked me who I want my second year quarterback throwing to in a big game next year — I’ll say Hopkins over Hunter. Despite the lack of 4.4 speed.

Pat Kirwan dropping hints

The relationship between Kirwan and Pete Carroll is a little overplayed. While they have a previous working relationship that appears to still be going strong, it’s not like Kirwan has dropped any defining nuggets of information about Seattle’s draft plans in the last three years. I suspect he doesn’t ask for lots of inside information, so he never gets lied to. And even if he does get info from time to time, I imagine out of respect he wouldn’t put it out there for public consumption.

Having said that, I’ve noticed a couple of things that raised an eyebrow recently.

You’ll find a video at the top of this CBS article where Kirwan is interviewed for a stock up/down piece. When discussing Florida State’s Bjoern Werner, he makes the following remark:

“One of the coaches said to me, ‘this is what I think of Werner… he’s a B+ player who’s going to be a B+ player for ten years. That’s a good thing, he’ll start all the time. But I’m looking for a guy with a special trait’. I don’t Werner demonstrated that to many of the people that were watching him.”

The words, “I’m looking for a guy with a special trait” are so Pete Carroll it almost seems too likely to be him. Yet there’s every chance it was him. The Seahawks are looking for a defensive lineman after all. And they look for special qualities in all their drafted players.

Even if this coach isn’t Carroll or another member of Seattle’s staff, I suspect they’ll share a similar opinion on Werner. They probably want more. They might be willing to take him if he’s there at #25. But the chances are they’ll hit for the fences with another guy.

Following on from that, here’s what Kirwan said during a radio spot on Friday:

Kirwan just re-enforced on air Tia Seattle caller “look for the rare qualities a guy may have” when you’re matching players to PC

— Glen Peer (@weekapaug009) March 8, 2013

It’s a reminder that when we’re looking at the prospects out there, we need to look for those rare qualities. It doesn’t have to be a player that is so much faster than another, or taller. Or bigger. They just have to have something special about them.

Seattle didn’t draft James Carpenter off the back of a combine performance, they drafted him because he was the left tackle for the best running team in college and he dominated the SEC. They needed to boost the running game. They drafted Earl Thomas because he’s rangy and had a ridiculous eight interceptions as a redshirt sophomore. They needed turnovers. They drafted Bruce Irvin because he’s fast and had incredible production for two years at WVU. They needed a pass rusher. And they still do.  So focus the minds. Look for a blend of athleticism and production. Difference makers. Keep running through those TFL lists and look for the guys who also performed well at the combine or at their pro-day. And be prepared for a surprise come April. Who’d be shocked if Margus Hunt was the pick in the end? I wouldn’t be.

Hartline signing good news for Seattle?

I have a hunch — and that’s all it is — that the Seahawks will be infatuated with Ryan Swope. Everything about him says John Schneider. Personality, production, speed. He’s got that ’tilt the field’ aspect to his game where to look at him, he doesn’t look like anything special. Yet he is. In fact he’s very special.

I was watching some Texas A&M tape last night and watched one play where Johnny Manziel was scrambling around. Swope cut off his route noting his quarterback was in trouble, found a soft zone underneath, tracked to the right and then set off downfield. I counted three times where he was open and should’ve received the football. Manziel didn’t throw it. Russell Wilson probably would’ve done. Swope worked that opening.

That level of improvisation interests me in a big way, because I think it’s one of the things Golden Tate and Sidney Rice struggle with. They round off a lot of routes and don’t often come back to the ball. Swope has dealt with two very athletic quarterbacks so far that frequently left the pocket. And the guy knows exactly what he needs to do in that situation. The thought of having him as a target while Wilson does his Frank Tarkenton thing is pretty exciting. Throw in impressive 4.34 speed, consistent hands and the ability to get open and he just sounds like another classic Schneider find.

One other thing that is crucial for any prospective Seahawks receiver — blocking. This remains a power running offense. The receivers are expected to get involved. Watch the tape against Auburn and Mississippi State from 2012 and make your own mind up on his blocking ability. I’d say it’s superb, vastly underrated and should be classified as a major positive if you’re hoping he lands in Seattle.

Before the Dolphins signed Brian Hartline to a 5-year $31m contract, I suspected Miami might take him with one of their second round picks. They have Swope’s old college coach running the offense and his former team mate at quarterback. They could still take him in round two. But with reported interest in Mike Wallace plus the possibility they could still go receiver at #12 (Cordarrelle Patterson?), how much do they want to spend on the position?

Swope’s concussion problems that emerged this week are a slight concern. Based on some quick research, it appears he had four suspected concussions during his time at Texas A&M although he never missed a game. Given the extreme focus on safety in the NFL, he might find life slightly easier. Yet one of the problems with improvising receivers who are fearless over the middle of the field is they’re likely to take hits. So it’s something teams will have to check out.

If he makes it to #56, he could be Seattle’s guy. He isn’t the big, tall 6-4 type they’d ideally like to find. He’s only 6-1. Yet I think in terms of value, he’ll be too tough to pass. And you don’t have to be tall to be a #1 receiver. You just need to get open, make plays and bail out your quarterback from time to time. Wilson-to-Swope could be an unlikely but brilliant combination.

Tony Pauline had this to say about Swope following his pro-day yesterday: “By all accounts Swope dazzled during pass catching drills. He ran crisp routes and caught everything thrown in his direction. His position work today along with his combine performance has Swope heading into the late part of round two.”

Mike Mayock has a short report on Swope from the Texas A&M pro-day. He calls him a second or third round pick.

If you haven’t seen it yet, check out this ‘trick shot’ video Swope made as part of his campaign to be on the cover of NCAA ’14.

Pining over Richardson

Sheldon Richardson remains ‘the guy’ for me. Exactly what Seattle needs at defensive tackle. And probably what Seattle isn’t going to get unfortunately because he’s just too good. Yet there are almost weekly teases at the moment to get your hopes up. Such as this:

Sheldon Richardson says he’s hearing a lot from the #Chiefs, #Jaguars, #Raiders, #Dolphins and #Seahawks. — Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) March 7, 2013

This:

#Seahawks scout talking with Richardson about meeting after he’s done for the day. yfrog.com/h8rmqxxpj

— Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) March 7, 2013

This:

Sheldon Richardson doing well in positional drills. Seahawks, Packers, Patriots and Jets getting a close look. — Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) March 7, 2013

And this:

Just completed a Mock Draft podcast w/@ourlads_shonka on @primesn. Interesting picks! Here are the 1st RD results… twitter.com/ChrisSteuber/s…

— Chris Steuber (@ChrisSteuber) March 8, 2013

We can but dream.

In the comments from the Justin Hunter topic yesterday, one name seemed to dominate the conversation:  Mark Harrison.  The predominant thought was that Seattle didn’t need to reach for Justin Hunter in round one if they could get a prospect like Mark Harrison much later.  I hadn’t watched much of Harrison yet, so I figured I’d explore this topic and share my thoughts.

Harrison stands 6’3″ at 231 pounds and ran a 4.46 forty at the combine.  There aren’t very many NFL receivers that play at 6’3″ 230, and even fewer that run fast while doing it.  Andre Johnson is one of the very few.  He’s 6’3″, 230, and ran in the 4.4’s during the 2003 draft run-up.  There are a lot of 6’4″ guys that might weigh 215, but stocky, heavy, tall, fast receivers are pretty unique.

I think the thing that surprises me the most about Harrison is his arm length.  I thought for certain that his arms would be shorter than Hunter’s, just going by the eyeball test.  Hunter has 33″ arms, which is a very good arm length for a receiver.  I thought Harrison might have 31″ or 32″ arms.  He has 35″ arms.  Few pass rushers in this draft have arms that long.  Only two other receivers cracked 34 inches.

Harrison also posted a 38.5″ vertical leap.

Watching Harrison, I have no idea why he’s not at least considered a 3rd round prospect.  Tony Pauline is a highly informed reporter in constant contact with NFL scouts, coaches, and executives, and while his draft rankings badly need an update, I tend to trust them (with a grain of salt, of course).  Those rankings don’t even list Mark Harrison in the top 160.

One of my favorite things to do when talking about a prospect is to try to dig up some nugget of information that almost nobody knows about.  I tried doing a google search on a quest for some Harrison reading, and well, there just wasn’t much out there.  Outside of a token article here and there, it doesn’t seem like a whole lot of people are talking about this guy.

Interestingly, Mark Harrison worked with star Chicago Bears’ wide receiver Brandon Marshall before the combine to work on his catching mechanics (as reported at Mocking The Draft).  He also asked for advice from former teammate Mohamed Sanu.

Harrison never posted a 1000 yard season in college.  He had just 583 yards (but had 6 touchdowns on just 44 receptions) last year.  In 2010, he had his best season with 829 yards and 9 touchdowns (also on just 44 receptions).  His yards per catch that season was an astronomical 18.8, which along with his touchdown numbers suggest that Harrison was a potent vertical threat at receiver.  His yards per catch dropped to 13.3 last season.

I wonder if his usage changed as the team transitioned from centering around Mohamed Sanu to centering around Brandon Coleman.  Coleman’s career yards per catch is an unbelievable 21.2.  Maybe the team handed the deep threat mantle to Coleman and used Harrison as more of an all-purpose receiver?

At the very least, Harrison’s 2010 season proves what he is capable of- monster per catch production- which hints at him being a strong deep threat target.  Last year Golden Tate and Sidney Rice posted very strong yards per target and touchdowns per target rates.  Their potency in the deep passing game played a large part in that.

One of the things I like about Harrison is that while he may not have Percy Harvin type foot quickness, and can turn upfield quickly and shows burst in his acceleration.  I don’t see that same kind of explosiveness in Justin Hunter, who clearly generates his speed through long strides.

Another thing I like- Harrison had a couple drops in this video, but I would think that’s an aberration based on his technique.  He typically extends his hands to the football  and always seems to take that extra moment after every catch to make sure he has the football before turning up field.  And at 9.66″, Harrison has some of the largest hands among this year’s receiver class.  It would be nice if he cut it out with the Willie Mays underhand stuff on deep throws though.  He needs to face the ball and present a target with his hands instead, as he does (and does well) when executing his curl routes.

It was frustrating to watch Rutgers use Harrison so rarely on slants.  Most of his receptions were on curl routes, with most of the rest of his targets coming on post routes.  In fairness, Harrison runs a sharp curl route, but I think he’s a great weapon running diagonally across the field.  The problem with a curl route is that they essentially kill yards after catch since the receiver is coming back to the football.  If Harrison was open running across the field, he could catch a well placed pass and then use his outstanding acceleration to turn the reception into a potential home run play since a tackle wouldn’t be imminent like it is on a curl route or a well covered post route.

Harrison shows good awareness when a defender is about to go for a desperation ankle tackle.  He fires his hamstrings to elevate his knees and ankles far off the ground, something that Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin often did last season when they sensed a defender might be about to go for their feet from behind.

I think Mark Harrison deserves a third round grade when compared to his peers in this draft class.  But in a draft class that has far too many 2nd and 3rd round prospects to actually go in those rounds, we’ll see 3rd round receivers falling into rounds four and beyond.  I think Harrison could be an excellent pick later on as Sidney Rice depth if the team opts for a more all purpose receiver early on, such as Ryan Swope or DeAndre Hopkins.