Seattle's offense continues to grow with Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch

When you think about it, there aren’t that many holes in Seattle’s offense. Sure, it was a difficult start to the year. That had to be expected breaking in a rookie quarterback. But now? Things look a lot more positive. And while improvements clearly can be made, I just wonder if this is a better group than we thought a few weeks ago?

Quarterback
The Seahawks finally have a possible quarterback of the future. Russell Wilson is growing into the NFL and looked superb against the Vikings last week. He’s nine games into his career and there’s no reason why he won’t continue to develop. Finding a starting quarterback in round three has become virtually impossible in the NFL. Seattle’s front office maybe found that ‘once in a generation’ diamond that everyone is looking for. Wilson is poised, he’s making good decisions, he’s accurate, he has the arm strength and the mobility. The one thing people said would be an issue – his height – isn’t proving to be an issue at all. These are exciting times.

Wide receiver
Perhaps the most talked about position in terms of pure need, but the Seahawks have pumped investment into this unit. One of the first moves the current regime made in 2010 was to draft Golden Tate in round two. They courted Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson before finally signing Sidney Rice to a $41m contract. They re-signed (then released) Mike Williams, and also re-signed Ben Obomanu. They pulled out all the stops to add Doug Baldwin in a competitive UDFA market. The signing of Rice and drafting of Tate both received favourable reviews by fans and media. Recently the pair have developed into key playmakers.

Tight end
While it’s very easy to concentrate on the superstar quality of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, the truth is there aren’t many guys like that around. In a passing offense utilising a rookie quarterback and concentrating on the run, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that Zach Miller’s numbers aren’t up there with the leagues elite. Only four tight ends rank among the forty most productive receivers this year – Gronkowski (19), Jason Witten (23), Tony Gonzalez (32) and Owen Daniels (37). The quarterbacks throwing to that quartet? Brady, Romo, Ryan and Schaub. Miller’s reputation coming to Seattle is the catalyst for an underwhelming impression of his time here. It could be argued the front office did what they could to deliver a top-end player for the position with a $34m contract. It’s his misfortune that the signing coincided with integrating a rookie quarterback and a focus on the ground game. There’s no guarantee a first round pick or alternative free agent will upgrade this position. Miller’s lack of production is a system problem, not an individual problem. And maybe it’s blind faith, but I still believe Anthony McCoy has a bright future in the NFL.

Running back
Trading for Marshawn Lynch was a master-stroke by the front office. For minimal draft outlay, the Seahawks acquired one of the best running backs in the NFL. Lynch is vital to this team and Buffalo Bills fans will be wondering how such a useful asset was allowed to leave the team for such a bargain price. Consider that the Bills not only traded Lynch away, but spent a top-ten pick on another running back (C.J. Spiller) as part of the replacement plan. Drafting Robert Turbin was a necessary move this year to make sure the team isn’t caught out if Lynch misses time (see: Cleveland game last year). After re-signing Lynch to a big deal, this is an area of real long term strength for the Seahawks.

Offensive line
Not many teams can match the kind of investment Seattle is making in its offensive line. Since 2010 they’ve employed two big name coaches (Alex Gibbs and Tom Cable), spent two first round picks (Russell Okung, James Carpenter), added John Moffitt in round three and re-signed center Max Unger to a long extension. The rest of the line is made up of players familiar with the system or coaches. People continue to discuss the possibility of further investment here, but the best answer for further improvement is merely time on the field and consistency. The Seahawks have a better line than most people credit. The ground game continues to prosper and Wilson has barely been touched this year.

Overall,there’s no glaring weaknesses. Compare this to other teams in the NFC West – the Cardinals have major question marks at quarterback and have virtually no investment in their offensive line. Sure, they have a superstar at receiver and recently spent another first round pick on Michael Floyd. But the Cardinals lack a lot of key features needed for a consistent offense. St. Louis likewise needs to rebuild its offensive line and while they have a former #1 pick at quarterback, they’re scrambling around trying to find weapons for Sam Bradford. Seattle and San Francisco boast much healthier overall situations.

That’s not to say improvements cannot be made. You can always get better and the Seahawks should seriously consider ways to find another good receiver. Even so, there’s a lot to be positive about there. If Wilson continues to develop, you’ll see the numbers in the passing game increase – meaning better stats for Rice, Tate and Miller. By the end of the year, people may have a very different opinion of that trio. Miller is unlikely to see a projected salary of $11m in 2013 but there’s every possibility a compromise can be made. Don’t assume the Seahawks can suddenly find a better option at tight end.

And when you actually consider it, are the teams greatest remaining needs actually on the much talked-about defense? They lack a truly excellent three technique with the potential to play most downs. There’s room to upgrade the WILL linebacker position. You can never have too many good pass rushers or corner backs.

This is a team that’s going to be built on a tough defense that takes the ball away, a productive ground game and efficient play at quarterback. So what should the priority be if the offense continues its upward trend? Sidney Rice and co arrived in Seattle with the potential to be great. Russell Wilson oozes the potential to be great. Marshawn Lynch already is great. Maybe, just maybe, the biggest needs are on defense?

Why so sad? Oh yes, you just lost to the 1-6 Carolina Panthers

Written by Michael Matherne…

The Washington Redskins gave up an unprecedented amount of draft capital to grab Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. At the time, most national pundits were on board with the move and many Seahawks fans looked on longingly as the Redskins secured their “franchise QB”. Who could blame them? The quarterback position is the most important in any major american sport. RGIII has a unique blend of athletic ability, deadly accuracy, and even media appeal.

After four consecutive seasons of sub-par QB play, many Seahawks fans and media were critical of Pete Carroll and John Schneider’s unwillingness to give up the proverbial “farm” as Washington just had. 193 days, one controversial quarterback competition and five thrilling victories later, it’s time to re-evaluate the ‘Hawks biggest off-season decision in recent memory.

When you look at the draft capital spent to acquire each player the comparison between Griffin and Wilson is pretty astounding. Using the standard draft pick valuation chart (loosely used in draft pick trades) we can assign a very inexact numerical value to each draft pick and get a basic idea of what each team gave up for their new passer.

The Redskins packaged three first round picks as well as a second rounder to move into position for RGIII. If we use the reverse order of ESPN’s week nine power rankings we can take an educated guess that Washingtons 2013 pick will end up as approximately the 14th overall choice.

Let’s say they improve enough in 2014 to clinch a wildcard and even win a playoff game, putting their 2014 pick at around #25 or #26 overall. That is a pretty generous assumption and if we operate under this projection you get the following draft value numbers:

6th overall pick in the 2012 draft – 1600 chart value

39th overall pick in the 2012 draft – 510 chart value

14th overall pick in the 2013 draft – 1100 chart value

26th overall pick in the 2014 draft – 700 chart value

Total – 3910 chart value

Here is what it cost the Seahawks to put Russell Wilson under center in Seattle:

75th overall pick in 2012 draft – 215 chart value

Some simple arithmetic reveals that the Washington Redskins coughed up roughly 18 times more to get Griffin than the Seattle Seahawks did to get Wilson.

3910/215 = 18.19

Was it worth it? Through nine weeks the two signal callers have put up the following lines:

Griffin – 65.6 CMP% 8 TD’s 3 INT’s for a 93.9 QB rating

Wilson – 62.0 CMP% 13 TD’s 8 INT’s for a 87.2 QB rating

Throw in RGIII’s 476 rushing yards and 6 additional TD’s (along with one concussion) and you can make a decent argument that Griffin has been more valuable so far than Wilson, but has he been 18 times more valuable? I hardly think so. In fact I think RGIII vs. RW is a lot like a house in San Francisco versus an identical house in Bozeman, Montana. That’s right Bozeites, I think living in Montana is the real world equivalent of being a 5-11 quarterback. I would begrudgingly apologize, but I’m not totally convinced you guys have the internet yet, so you will likely never read this anyway.

Getting back on track, the more important question is how will they perform over the course of their careers? Would anyone in their right mind bet that Griffin wins 18x more playoff games than Wilson, or for that matter 18x the number of Super Bowls? A quick peek at the law of diminishing returns makes you think twice before taking that wager up with your bar buddies.

Ultimately nine games do not define a quarterback’s career and history has shown that both players could end up being superstars or busts. But after those nine game it could be argued that the Seahawks got far better “value” in selecting Russell Wilson than the Redskins did by picking Robert Griffin III.

Seattle's passing game continued to grow against the Vikings

Who would’ve guessed Seattle’s biggest problem would suddenly be the defense? Touted as elite just a few weeks ago, the Seahawks are now struggling a bit. The secondary continues to cover big guys pretty well, but the run defense is becoming a problem. Yes, Adrian Peterson is an incredible player. But it isn’t just Adrian Peterson. For the last three games this unit has not played well against the run.

We spent weeks deliberating over which receivers the Seahawks could target in next April’s draft, among other offensive positions. If the draft took place tomorrow, who’d bet against a defensive player being the pick? Is it the biggest need? Probably.

Russell Wilson improves with each performance and looks every bit the teams quarterback of the future. In fact he’s starting to look special. He is far better than a guy like Christian Ponder who had no business in the first round of the 2011 draft. What’s more, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Zach Miller are getting involved. The run attack continues to prosper. Seattle’s offense has carried the team against Detroit and Minnesota. Nobody would’ve believed that a few weeks ago.

On the other side of the ball, the defense struggles to get off the field on third down, struggles to stop the run, has difficulty against slot receivers/check downs and isn’t even tackling very well. They get pressure, but it’s inconsistent (especially on the road) and the four man rush isn’t quite as effective as this scheme requires. Losing Jason Jones has been a bigger blow than a lot of people expected.

The draft is deep at defensive tackle which works in two ways. Either you dip into the talent pool early because that’s where the quality is, or you judge whether the depth is sufficient to wait a little. Jones and Alan Branch are both pending free agents so it’s an area we’ll have to keep an eye on. Getting a penetrative three technique appears crucial if Jones walks. Sheldon Richardson is by far the best pure three technique eligible for 2013 and should be an early pick. Sylvester Williams (see tape below) is also first round worthy and Star Lotulelei will be a high pick if teams buy into his upside. It’s worth noting that Alan Branch is a bigger-than-usual starter at the three. If they want to keep the size they could look at Johnathan Hankins or Jonathan Jenkins – both are very athletic for +325lbs.

There’s also the possibility a player like Alec Ogletree – who looks ideal for the Seahawks’ scheme – is available and he’d add to the pass rush and offer genuine safety speed at linebacker. He can cover underneath to a high level and is adept at reading a quarterbacks eyes and breaking on the ball. He could be a top-15 pick but off field concerns might push him deeper into the first.

In the short term they have to deal with what they’ve got and first and foremost get Jones healthy to help the interior rush. This is a team that has proven they can shut down a run game and they’ll no doubt be studying the tape to work out what teams are doing to suddenly be effective against the defense. New York will run the ball a lot next week but don’t have a back like Peterson or Frank Gore. It’s crucial to the teams potential success this year that they sort this problem out quickly. Before people wondered whether a lousy passing game would hold back an elite defense. Now you have to wonder whether the defense is going to hold back a dynamic offense?

Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) tape vs NC State:

There are some big games today, including Alabama @ LSU and Oregon travelling to USC. Whatever you’re watching let us know about it.

There’s nothing more dynamic than a great quarterback throwing to a playmaking receiver. It’s not the only way to win in the NFL, but it is a way. Yet there remains some suspicion among the two positions, with fans and pundits almost demanding perfection. While upside is justification enough to draft an unrefined defensive end or offensive tackle prospect, the same cannot be said for the two positions that help electrify an offense.

Part of the reason is the importance of a good quarterback and the passing offense in general. A coach or GM will be forgiven if they misfire on a defensive end or offensive lineman because the long term damage is minimal. There’s a stigma around quarterbacks that feels more long term. The day you side with a quarterback is the day your reputation is on the line. It’s like taking a chance on the most vital position in the game is the ultimate review of your ability to identify talent. This thinking is a little bit backward because a.) the quarterback problem is the hardest to solve and b.) it’s the one position you should keep trying to improve until you land that perceived ‘franchise’ player.

Improving the environment around a quarterback is just as important. A lot of people think it’s just about the offensive line. It isn’t. A quarterback needs great receivers too. They don’t have to be Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green. They don’t even have to be production machines. They just have to be good enough to make a team honest and difficult to game plan. You have to surround a young quarterback with as much talent as possible to max out his potential.

The Seahawks face this situation now. They’ve made their bed with Russell Wilson and we’re seeing evidence of everything written above. People are associating Wilson’s success with Pete Carroll and John Schneider, when in reality all they’ve done is identify someone who ‘could’ be the guy. So far it looks like they might be right. Kudos to them. But if it doesn’t work out, they should be allowed the freedom to make another investment at the position. They’ve built up the line (two first round picks) and have signed receivers (Rice, Miller) and a dominant running back (Lynch). It’s coming together.

Yet they have to keep building around their guy if they want to avoid having to find the next guy. Wilson will never have enough weapons. He cannot be allowed to fail due to dropped passes or a lack of talent around him. Right now this is a growing offense, learning what they can and can’t do. Things are getting better, but they can’t settle. They were shrewd enough to find a quarterback who was available outside of the first round. They may need to be willing to spend higher picks to make him a ‘franchise’ quarterback, though.

Since 1976, the Seahawks have used 39 first round picks. Out of those 39, only two have been spent on wide receivers (Joey Galloway 1995, Koren Robinson 2001). They’ve only drafted two quarterbacks too (Dan McGwire 1991, Rick Mirer 1993). Think about that for a moment. Two of the most important positions in the NFL and only four first round picks in 36 years? Compare that to the ten defensive lineman they’ve drafted, nine offensive lineman or six defensive backs. In the history of the Seattle Seahawks they haven’t spent anywhere near enough on the offensive skill positions.

Carroll has created a good defense. As witnessed in Detroit, it’s maybe not at elite status yet. There’s room for another defensive tackle, or a linebacker. This is actually an incredibly strong draft for interior defensive lineman and Alec Ogeltree looks like he was made to play in Seattle’s scheme at weakside linebacker. Other players like Arthur Brown at Kansas State also make a lot of sense. But hasn’t this franchise been here before? You could take a defensive tackle, but what about the passing game? You could go linebacker and try to push the defense closer to elite status, but can the offense take advantage?

We’re going to spend a lot of time arguing the case for defensive prospects that might fit the teams scheme over the next few months, but there’s always going to be an argument which comes back to the receivers. That’s not to say the Seahawks should draft one for the sake of it, but we need to dedicate a fair amount of time looking at the options. If they do go receiver for the third time in what’ll be 37 years by April, it might not be the guy everyone expects. Just like James Carpenter and Bruce Irvin.

In fact, it’s almost certainly not going to be the guy we expect. I sense Carroll and Schneider almost enjoy being different, avoiding the consensus opinion. They took Carpenter amid a host of question marks (anyone who really watched him at Alabama understood the first round grade) and added Irvin and Wilson a year later – with hysteria reaching new levels in the media. All we can do as interested observers is to watch the games and try to understand fit. This is why I gave the Seahawks Cordarrelle Patterson in my latest mock draft. They’re focusing on the running game and trying to use big strikes in the passing game. They use play action and try to get big chunks with Wilson’s arm. They aren’t chipping away with little 4-5 yard completions. This isn’t the Pats offense.

Unless they shift scheme in the off season, it’s not unreasonable to consider they might continue to try and pump up that game plan with big, tall downfield receivers who can win jump balls. They have a slot guy they believe in (Doug Baldwin) and a receiver in Golden Tate who they’re happy moving around. Do they have that true home run hitter to go with a passing game that swings for the fences? Perhaps not. Which is why I think Patterson’s style of play could be suitable.

I also went back last night and watched the Wisconsin vs Ohio State game from last year. The Russell Wilson we’re seeing in Seattle right now is the one we saw in college. I don’t see why the Seahawks would shift their game plan so significantly because this is the type of game Wilson is comfortable with. And while he remains the starting quarterback, they need to put weapons around him that can make his life easy as possible.

On the schedule this week: Ole Miss vs Georgia, Alabama vs LSU, Oklahoma State vs Kansas State. I’d like to express my feelings on the decision of my broadcast provider to not show the Oregon vs USC game, but I want to keep this blog clean. I’ll create an open thread again tomorrow so feel free to offer your take if you’re watching a game or a prospect this weekend.