I’ve decided to take a break from the tape (it’ll be back tomorrow with a heavy schedule of defensive talent) to preview some of the players I’ll be focusing on during the 2011 college season. There’s a strong possibility other names will come forward in the same way Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and JJ Watt managed last year. Twelve months ago I probably would’ve ranked Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) in the top-30, he went in round seven to Denver last month – so things can change. However, despite the obvious premature nature of this projection, these are the 50 players I’d recommend keeping an eye on. Remember, this is as much about highlighting certain players of interest rather than seriously attempting to project ‘the best 50’ in May.       

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
Decorated quarterback who appears destined to be the #1 overall pick in 2012. Would’ve been the top choice this year had he declared.       

#2 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
May remain at Southern Cal for his senior year but close to Luck in terms of franchise potential. Deserves greater attention.       

#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
Brother of Carolina Panthers lineman Ryan, elite blindside potential and kept Tyron Smith at RT before he was drafted in the top ten.       

#4 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
Part of a group which ranks as probably the best offensive line in college football. Ideal size, equally adept in pass protection or in the run game.       

#5 Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Playmaking corner who had nine interceptions last season. Lacks ideal size, but reminds me a little of Brandon Flowers. Kick return specialist.       

#6 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
Perhaps best described as a more productive Cameron Jordan, Coples had 10 sacks last year and has definite top-ten potential.       

#7 Knile Davis (RB, Arkansas)
Breakaway speed on a 6-0, 225lbs frame, Davis became an explosive part of Arkansas offense last year averaging 6.5 yards per carry.       

#8 Bruce Irvin (DE, West Virginia)
Former JUCO prospect who recorded 14 sacks last year. This is a name you’ll hear a lot in 2011 for a WVU team that could really challenge.       

#9 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
He’ll get more work in 2011 with Mark Ingram now in the NFL. Similar combination of size/speed to Arkansas’ Davis.       

#10 Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Mike Williams clone and even wears the same number for the Gamecocks. Quarterback problems could hurt his stock this year.       

#11 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
Despite everything, nobody can deny Jenkins’ elite skills as a cover corner. Talent warrants this rating, even despite off-field concerns.       

#12 Jeff Fuller (WR, Texas A&M)
One of the few to shine despite being shadowed by LSU’s Patrick Peterson. If he becomes more consistent, he can be a top-15 pick.       

#13 Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma)
Physical potential but needs to work on his consistency and decision making. Has a great opportunity to work his way into the top-ten.       

#14 Juron Criner (WR, Arizona)
Production will be high with Nick Foles returning and Criner has the complete package – size (6-4, 210lbs), speed and hands.       

#15 Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State)
Penetrating three-technique nobody talks about. Had 10.5 sacks in 2010 and if he can maintain quicks with an extra 10lbs, watch out.       

#16 Mohamed Sanu (WR/RB, Rutgers)
The ultimate playmaker who suffers due to a chaotic quarterback situation at Rutgers. Hines Ward as a blocker and a point scorer with the ball in his hands.       

#17 Brandon Jenkins (DE, Florida State)
Spin move needs some work, but showed flashes of a repertoire in a 13.5 sack 2010 season. LEO candidate for Seattle.       

#18 Jonathan Massaquoi (DE, Troy)
Another LEO candidate with pass rushing qualities, like Jenkins he recorded 13.5 sacks last year.       

#19 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
Production shouldn’t suffer despite the loss of top offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Not ideal size/speed, but incredible production.       

#20 Jerell Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
Needs to become more consistent and hasn’t played up to his full potential yet. 2011 is a big year for Worthy.       

#21 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)
The true star of Wisconsin’s dominating offensive line last year. Stood out in a big way whenever I watched the Badgers.       

#22 Logan Thomas (QB, Virginia Tech)
Sleeper pick in that he’s 6-6, 245lbs and incredibly gifted. Red-shirt sophomore only, but has the talent to excel for the Hokies.       

#23 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
A third LEO prospect, Curry enjoyed a 12-sack season last year including an eye catching display against Ohio State.       

#24 Mike Brewster (C, Ohio State)
Would enter the league capable of playing three spots on the offensive line. Could’ve been a high pick in 2011.       

#25 Alfonzo Dennard (CB, Nebraska) 
I had this guy ranked higher than Prince Amukamara. He could be the top senior corner.   

#26 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Tall corner but looks stiff and gambles in coverage too often. If he improves and lives up to top billing, he can move up the board.       

#27 Robert Lester (S, Alabama)
Eight interceptions last year and a sack for a player who can line up at cornerback or safety at 6-2, 206lbs.       

#28 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
Junior tackle who was arrested as an incoming freshman after leading police on a 20-minute foot chase. At least we know he’s agile.     

#29 Stephon Gimore (CB, South Carolina)
Didn’t look good in the SEC title game against Auburn, but otherwise had a solid year and is one of a number of talent players at South Carolina.       

#30 Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
Lacks physical tools like a big arm or agility, but if Christian Ponder can go 12th overall, Cousins can easily shoot up draft boards.       

#31 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama)
Ended the year strongly but the rest of the season wasn’t all that. Needs to prove he can be a consistent edge threat.       

#32 Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State)
Owns the big arm but doesn’t always drive passes with great velocity. Can he take the next step to put his team, and his stock, on the map?       

#33 Jared Crick (DT, Nebraska)
A player who makes you think top-15 prospect one play and late round pick the next. Having said that, nobody can argue with 18.5 sacks the last two years.       

#34 Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss)
Caught the eye in the bowl game against Louisville. Passes the eye test, even if physical qualities are not elite.       

#35 Vontaze Burflict (LB, Arizona State)
Orthodox linebacker who is solid, but doesn’t make many game-changing plays.       

#36 Cliff Harris (CB, Oregon)
Best value may be as a stunning return specialist, but six interceptions last year warrant attention as a junior in 2011.       

#37 LaMichael James (RB, Oregon)
Hasn’t got the size and Oregon’s offense makes him difficult to judge, but it’s hard to watch James and not imagine someone taking a shot early.       

#38 Ray Ray Armstrong (S, Miami)
The best player in Miami’s secondary last year, including Brandon Harris.       

#39 Chris Polk (RB, Washington)
Under rated running back with 1415 yards last season. Could easily be a high draft pick in 2012.       

#40 Travis Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
Solid linebacker and immediate starter in the NFL. The heartbeat of the Oklahoma defense.       

#41 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
6-4, 220lbs receiver with 946 yards and four touchdowns as a junior. Can he continue to progress?       

#42 Chase Minnifield (CB, Virginia)
Another cornerback who had big production last year (six interceptions).       

#43 Cyrus Gray (RB, Texas A&M)
Ended last season with seven straight 100+ yard games and ten touchdowns. Vital cog in the Texas A&M offense next year alongside receiver Jeff Fuller.   

#44 Robert Griffin (QB, Baylor)
Can he become more than just an athletic quarterback? Natural born leader, good size, faultless character, mechanics aren’t poor but system makes it a tough judgement.   

#45 Evan Harris (LB, Miami, OH)
Game changing linebacker who makes big plays – including six interceptions and two sacks in 2010.       

#46 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
Has to live without two key defensive lineman (Bowers, Jenkins) and may see production take a hit.       

#47 Donte Paige-Moss (DE, North Carolina)
Benefits from playing across from Quinton Coples. An outside linebacker or LEO prospect at the next level who never blew me away in 2010.      

#48 John Brantley (QB, Florida)
Charlie Weis’ arrival in Florida will benefit Brantley and don’t rule out a bounce-back year for Tim Tebow’s successor. Simplified Weis passing game is a huge bonus.   

#49 Devin Taylor (DE, South Carolina)
Lean defensive end who could do with adding weight to increase his strength.       

#50 Brandon Lindsey (DE, Pittsburgh)
Outside linebacker or LEO prospect, had ten sacks last year but must feature without Jabaal Sheard.   

Just missed: Greg Childs (WR, Arkansas), Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas), Marcus Forston (DT, Miami), Manti Te’0 (LB, Notre Dame), Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State), Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)

Over the next few days I’m going to continue to review 2012 prospects, break down the tape and preview the new college season. Yesterday we featured USC quarterback Matt Barkley, so it’s only fitting to cover the other guy not named Andrew Luck – Oklahoma’s Landry Jones.

The redshirt junior had major production in 2010, stacking up a lofty 4718 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It’s no surprise given the number of high percentage passes in the Oklahoma offense. Jones threw the ball an incredible 617 times last season, averaging 44 passes per game. Against Oklahoma State he threw 62-times and his lowest workload came in a 45-7 blow out of Texas Tech – a game he didn’t finish yet still managed 29 attempts. This is a very different offense than the one witnessed at USC (Barkley) or Stanford (Luck).

In Sam Bradford’s Heisman winning season he recorded 4720 passing yards, so around the same region as Jones last year. Yet Bradford attempted 483 passes, 134 less than Jones in 2010. The pass-happy offense didn’t restrict Bradford’s stock because he was able to shine regardless. Sure, he also made a large number of screens and dumps off – but he also flashed the ability to be incredibly accurate and capable of making every pro-pass. His 50 touchdowns and just eight interceptions in 2008 was testament to his quality and rightly he was drafted first overall last year. Jones has to prove he’s equally capable of flourishing in an offense that will always make life easy.

The good news is he has the prototypical size (6-4, 225lbs) and an arm that won’t be a restriction in the NFL. As with both Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, Jones doesn’t have any character issues and plays up to the ‘leader’ role on his team.

The tape above is from a blow-out win over a sloppy Florida State. His opposite number Christian Ponder suffered a hideous meltdown on the day and one can only assume Minnesota didn’t linger too long on this game before drafting him 12th overall. As you can see, there’s a real mix of good and bad from Jones. On a positive day, you’ll see the kind of performance above. The errors are largely unpunished and he’s able to make a few good plays. On an off day, he struggles and we saw that in perhaps Oklahoma’s biggest game of last season against Missouri where Blaine Gabbert looked a superior pro-prospect.

His quest in 2011 will be to become a consistent force and to shine beyond the pass-happy offense. He can do that with the vast talent he has at receiver and particularly the return of safety net Ryan Broyles is a big positive. Limit the turnovers and try to become more efficient and Jones can become a quarterback with top 10-15 talent.

So to the tape…

This is pretty much eight minutes of screen passes and you could cut most of it out and be no more incapable of making a pro-judgement. Welcome to the Oklahoma offense. It’s all about quick tempo, high percentage passes that get the ball out to the playmakers quickly and then rush back to the line before the defense has a chance to rest. Jones is given a different read but the check-down is always there. What I need to judge next season, especially against the tougher defenses, is whether he’s too quick to go to that safe option. Alternatively, will he make errors trying to force things when dropping off a short pass was actually the best bet? Little things like that will define his decision making and as he owns the physical tools, will be a major factor in his final grade.

He has a tendency to be a little off with some throws, as witnessed at 0:51, 1:03, 2:11, 5:32, 5:37 and 6:18. The pass at 6:45 is a really poor decision that should’ve led to an interception. 

In contrast there are some really positive plays where he looks like a top-ten pick. The first examples comes at 1:32 where he fits the ball through a crowd into a position where the receiver can catch it in traffic. Nice zip, good placement and it’s also from his second read, so he’s had to make a quick decision to make the completion. This preceeds the first touchdown, another pro-throw, with Jones’ showing a great pump, the #27 bites opening up space in behind two defensive backs for his receiver. Again the pass is very accurate and executed to perfection.

Fast forward to 2:21 for the next big play. This throw is Bradford-esque with beautiful touch, dropped in behind the cornerback giving the receiver a chance to catch by the sideline and run in for the score. It’s impossible not to see a throw like that and think top-10 potential.

In Seattle’s offense you need to be able run bootlegs and throw on the move, we see some evidence of this at 3:08. Mobility isn’t a big positive for Jones but he’s not Ryan Mallett-slow. He’s a bit like Matt Ryan on his feet – capable of rolling out and moving around in the pocket, but he’s not going to break off big runs or surprise you with a scramble. There’s a play-action at 4:11.

The third touchdown is a great example of how the fast tempo offense works to Oklahoma’s advantage. The FSU defense can’t prepare itself in time, it’s a disorganised mess and Jones takes full advantage by snapping the ball early and getting it to an open receiver.

He’ll probably want to forget the play at 4:30. Ouch.

There’s absolutely no reason why he can’t take the next step and not only be very successful with Oklahoma, but also be one of the big name prospects for the 2012 draft. Unlike Matt Barkley he has no real need to stay for a fourth year starting and there will be a market for the players next in line behind Andrew Luck. Can he become more clinical and efficient to match the physical qualities and the flashes of pure potential? He made major strides forward as a second year starter and there’s no reason why that can’t continue. However, there is still work to be done and he’s behind both Luck and Barkley at this stage in my opinion, but things can change.

Thanks again to the excellent Draft Breakdown for providing game tape that goes beyond highlights. Today we have a close look at USC quarterback Matt Barkley, a player many consider to be one of the top rated NFL prospects in college football. He’ll be a true junior in 2011 having started as a freshman, but it’s unclear whether he’ll declare for next year’s draft. In 2012 sanctions will be lifted on USC allowing them to participate in a BCS Bowl and that could be tempting enough for Barkley to return for a fourth year.

There’s also the possibility of becoming the #1 pick in 2013, an honour which will almost certainly go to Andrew Luck next year. I suspect Landry Jones will declare as a redshirt junior having already had success with Oklahoma in two bowl games. It’s a very different situation for Barkley, but he’s worth reviewing nonetheless.

The snap judgement you make is that he’s a pure pocket passer, but actually he’s deceptively agile. We see at the 4:02 mark that he’s more than capable of making plays with his feet when the situation arises and the second touchdown pass at 5:37 is Aaron Rodgers-esque, a pump fake before slipping away from pressure, then hitting his target on the numbers. The plays at 6:48 and 6:58 are two more examples of what Barkley is capable of in this area.

On other occasions you’re left a little bit frustrated that he doesn’t extent the play. The sack and fumble after 35 seconds showed the perfect opportunity to step into the pocket yet he remains glued to the spot almost waiting to be hit. In that instance you want to see some appreciation for the pressure and adjustment, whether it’s a quick throw or at least trying to get out of the pocket to create a passing lane. We saw improvements in his footwork as a sophomore and it’s fair to expect that to continue as a junior. If he can become consistently good in this area you’re talking about a big-time pro-prospect because the other qualities he has are borderline elite.

Barkley excels with the quick pass and accuracy. Mechanically there’s no issues with his throwing motion and he’s well versed taking the snap from under center, taking a five step drop and delivering the ball on the money. The throw at 1:02 is the kind of thing that people rave about Andrew Luck, an efficient drop back and throw on the target in a crowd for the first down. You see further evidence of this at 4:46 and you have to love the way he looks off the safety to make the completion.

He needs to put more velocity in the mid/deep range throws and unlike some prospects I think he’s got the frame and mechanics to improve in this area. The pass at 1:14 could’ve done with a little more zip, but you can’t fault the placement over two defenders and it should’ve been caught. It’s the same situation at 2:24, good placement but you’d like the ball to hit the target a little quicker. A bit of work in the weight room will do wonders and he can add muscle without seeing an adverse effect on his accuracy.

Even so, the deep ball isn’t something we’ll ever rave about with Barkley but as long as it’s accurate and not under-thrown I don’t have an issue. Andrew Luck doesn’t have a cannon arm, but he rarely under throws his receiver. Christian Ponder on the other hand will try and throw to a distance he isn’t capable of and lobs it up for grabs. The completion at 2:40 is more Luck than Ponder, because although the ball doesn’t zip through the air like a Ryan Mallett pass there’s only one player who has any chance of catching the ball – the receiver. Barkley executes the play-action well and places the ball perfectly.

The touchdown pass afterwards flashes the decision making qualities he has, initially acknowledging his first option wasn’t on, moving to a secondary option before returning to the initial read in a split second when the pass re-opened. It’s a good, accurate throw to the back of the end zone.

Barkley suffers a little bit with an issue Luck had as a redshirt freshman and also at the start of the 2010 season in that he forces passes. This is probably to be expected with young guys still learning their game. Luck made major strides during last season but for the occasional stop-start performance (including the first half of the Orange Bowl) and I suspect Barkley will enjoy the same kind of improvement here.

The fade pass at 5:04 is perfect and should’ve been caught – it’s the third of five bad drops on the tape following an inch perfect throw. You also have to be impressed with the way he visibly progresses through his reads. Again, you’re talking about easy comparisons to Luck in that area.

Whenever I’ve watched Barkley I’ve been impressed and I maintain that he has #1 pick potential if he continues to improve as a junior and possibly during a fourth year with Southern Cal. Although he may not have the cannon arm, he’s pretty much the complete package in every other respect. Teams are going to want this guy to be the face of their franchise for the next +10 years. With USC off the national radar due to the sanctions, he’s unlikely to generate the same mass exposure that Luck enjoyed last season, but it’ll be fascinating to see how the pair perform and if they do both declare, how they’ll challenge each other at the top of the draft.

As things stand today I would project Andrew Luck to be a sure-fire #1 pick, but if he does declare Barkley would be the close second and who knows – he may end up having the better career.