Reading through the ‘way too early’ 2025 mock drafts and top-50 lists, I’m surprised at some of the projections being made about next years draft. There are a lot of overrated players currently.

This is not a draft class with an obvious #1 overall pick. There isn’t a quarterback you can easily slot into that position. There isn’t a fantastic left tackle or EDGE worthy of being touted for this spot. It could end up being a draft like 2022, where a player emerges (in this instance, Travon Walker) to go first overall.

The best player in the class before the 2024 season is…

Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham. He has a little bit of Ndamukong Suh to his game in that he’s well sized, can play with force and physicality and yet he’s still agile enough to make disruptive plays in the backfield. He’s pretty much a complete defensive tackle who will fit any scheme and there’s every reason to believe he could be one of the first two players drafted next April. Graham is the best overall talent as we begin the college season.

Who’s next?

Penn State’s Abdul Carter is going to transition to edge rush from linebacker although as a conventional linebacker, I thought he also warranted top-10 hype. He is a player with immense potential.

It’s a strong looking cornerback class at the top end with Will Johnson at Michigan leading the way. Keep an eye on Denzel Burke at Ohio State. Both players are very athletic and showed a willingness to play the run last season. Benjamin Morrison at Notre Dame could also generate some first round buzz.

Michigan’s Colston Loveland is a legit pass-catching threat at tight end and will almost certainly, if all goes well this year, be a top-15 pick.

Tennessee pass rusher James Pearce Jr has a chance to be a top-ten prospect. He’s sudden off the edge and has the necessary athletic traits, size and length to be a genuine threat. That said, in order to deliver on his potential he needs to be stronger at the point of attack and be more violent against the run.

Alabama left guard Tyler Booker for me is a first round talent. He might not go that early due to his position — but he is the player I enjoyed scouting the most in preparation for this review.

Texas’ Kelvin Banks will probably have to kick inside to guard from left tackle due to his size/length. He has an opportunity to go early in the way Alijah Vera-Tucker and Troy Fautanu did.

LSU’s right tackle Emery Jones is the best pure tackle I have watched. He is physical with great size, is incredibly tough to get around and is just a bit better on his feet and more of a finisher than team mate Will Campbell, who I don’t currently view as a first round level player.

Who can work their way into first round contention?

It’s a wide open race at quarterback. Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers and Shedeur Sanders are the best placed to achieve this but with no obvious top-10 type, there’s room for others to really promote their stock like Jayden Daniels did last year. I did a full quarterback breakdown in July which you can read here.

Emeka Egbuka is such a smooth, controlled, polished player — if he can stay healthy he could really take a jump in 2024. Missouri’s Luther Burden is consistent, tracks the ball well and he can make things happen — I think the extent of his speed and testing will determine how high he goes.

Georgia’s big D-liner Mykel Williams has the frame, tools and splash plays to be a very high first rounder but he needs to become a more rounded, consistent force. Could he be the 2025 Travon Walker? Possibly. Team mate Malaki Starks has an opportunity to become a top-25 pick at safety. He’s instinctive, quick, flies to the ball downhill and can line-up in multiple positions. Jalon Walker is a reverse Abdul Carter. He’s done a good job providing pressure off the edge for Georgia in passing situations but will now become a full-time inside linebacker, while retaining some rushing snaps on third down. He’s a very interesting player who can bend well off the edge. Plus, he does a better job than his peers when engaging in contact.

Who is being overrated?

I don’t understand why people think quarterback Cam Ward, playing for Mario Cristobal, is going to be a Heisman contender or a high draft pick. Equally, I’m shocked to see people think Drew Allar could be an early round pick. I thought most of his 2023 tape showed an undraftable player.

The aforementioned Will Campbell at LSU looks more like a right tackle to me. He doesn’t look like a great athlete and I think he’ll struggle against speed. Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson has great athletic potential but he needs to play a lot better than he did in 2023.

JT Tuimoloau plays in spurts and lacks game-wrecking consistency and traits. I don’t think he is a round one talent. Team mate Jack Sawyer is a try-hard worker but not an early pick.

Kentucky defensive tackle Deone Walker has a strange body type where he’s top heavy. I thought he struggled vs double teams and I was left wanting more given how many people view him as a first round pick.

Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan definitely tracks the ball well and makes circus catches look easy but I don’t think he has the pure speed and explosiveness to be a great NFL receiver based on tape study so far.

I’m surprised to see some people rate Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant above team mate Mason Graham. For me it’s a total no-brainer. Graham is far better, with Grant a run-of-the-mill mid-round type you find in most drafts. He has the Bruce Feldman ‘freak list’ appearance but so did Kris Jenkins a year ago and he only went in the second half of round two.

Dontay Corleone is powerful but he’ll need to test well to go early. I think he’s being overrated as a first round type and is more of a typical bigger nose tackle. Those players don’t tend to go early.

Harold Perkins at LSU intrigues me because of his athletic potential and fit in a creative defensive scheme but he needs to play in space and has struggled taking on blocks. I don’t think he can play a full-time role off the edge taking on blockers but is he big enough to play linebacker? He’s caught between two positions.

I understand why Florida State EDGE Patrick Payton is getting first round buzz — but he needs to play with a lot more violence than he did against Georgia Tech on Saturday to get there.

I can’t project Travis Hunter early because I can’t work out what he is. There are games where he plays well at cornerback but then he’ll give up a whole ton of yardage to a bad, struggling offense (see: Stanford). At receiver he’s very capable of big moments but can he be consistent? We don’t often see two-way players like this so how do you grade him?

Josh Conerly at Oregon doesn’t have the size and length and might have to kick inside to guard. I also feel the same way about Jonah Savaiinaea, who I have graded at guard currently although he plays right tackle for Arizona. I do not see Savaiinaea as a first round tackle, as many do.

Players who deserve a bit more hype

Size will be key for Howard Cross but he was an impact player throughout last season for Notre Dame as an interior rusher. Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams, meanwhile, is a terrific, sturdy run defender with the upside to become a plus pass rusher.

Parker Brailsford played so well at center for Washington and while, like Cross, there will be size concerns — I can well imagine him excelling at Alabama and becoming a hot center prospect for next year. I’m also intrigued by Iowa center Logan Jones.

Aireontae Ersery at Minnesota has the tools and measureables to be considered in the top-50 at tackle. I really like Jack Nelson the tackle at Wisconsin. He might end up being a right-sided player in the NFL but there’s something there.

Mitchell Evans, tight end at Notre Dame, is a classic Y-TE with plus athleticism. His run blocking is tremendous and can be a dynamic pass-catcher with his skill-set.

I like what I’ve seen from linebackers Danny Stutsman and Cody Lindenberg and am intrigued to see more this season.

Further thoughts on the quarterback class

Watching Drake Maye in pre-season action on Sunday, I was struck by how much I thought he looked like a John Schneider-type quarterback. This isn’t a class, though, with an obvious player in that mould (big, athletic, strong arm).

I do think some talent evaluators are going to be enamoured with Quinn Ewers’ potential. The arm talent he showed in the road win against Alabama was electrifying. He also has a knack of releasing the ball incredibly quickly with a whip-like motion. There are times on tape where he just waits a split second for the target to emerge, he looks like he’s going to get sacked and then he releases the ball with perfect velocity in an improbably quick fashion. That release, combined with the ability to throw downfield, will interest teams. He’s also mobile and has a high degree of natural talent.

However, he also has to stay healthy and play with greater consistency. This is a big year for Ewers, who lost two high picks at receiver, his top tight end and a left tackle this year to the NFL. He will begin the year as QB1 on my board.

Shedeur Sanders also has plenty of talent but teams will spend a lot of time debating what life will be like if they draft him to be the face of their franchise, given the baggage that comes with making Deion’s son your focal point. How much are you going to need to manage ‘Coach Prime’, let alone his son?

Carson Beck is being overrated somewhat as the assumed top quarterback in this class. He lacks brilliant physical talent or elusiveness. He’s a timing and touch passer — but he did play well last season.

As noted in this article recently, I’m intrigued by Jalen Milroe working with Kalen DeBoer to see what progress he makes in terms of cleaning up his footwork and becoming a better passer in the pocket. It’s very difficult to project Conner Weigman given his lack of playing time but the Texas A&M quarterback clearly carries some intrigue. Riley Leonard has a lot of physical talent but he needs to become an athletic quarterback rather than just an athlete who plays quarterback. Max Brosmer and Brady Cook intrigue me, while it’ll be interesting to see how Tyler Van Dyke and Will Howard get on with new teams. Howard, in particular, could really elevate his stock playing on a loaded Ohio State roster. I’m interested to watch USF’s Byrum Brown given his physical potential.

Finally, here are some video thoughts on the Trevis Gipson trade and Geno Smith’s ranking in Mike Sando’s ‘QB tiers’ article for the Athletic:

We’re going to do a live stream at 2:30pm PT on Sunday to discuss the game and the pre-season but for now, here are some notes…

It was a sloppy defensive performance by most of the backups, with the Browns gaining 17 passing first downs and dominating time of possession by 11 minutes. However, several players flashed and the starting unit made an impression in their only series.

There’s absolutely no doubt that Seattle’s best defensive group, combined with Mike Macdonald, will create a vastly improved unit this year. We’re yet to see Macdonald at his most creative. It’ll be fun to see what he can cook-up against a rookie quarterback in week one.

There will be difficult decisions in the coming days. Dee Williams has shown well as a return man but he doesn’t really offer much other than that. They tried him at cornerback late on and he gave up the last touchdown of the game. Dee Eskridge, for all his faults, might be able to offer more as a receiver and gadget player. He might’ve timed his punt-return touchdown perfectly in terms of boosting his chances of staying on the roster. I’m not sure anyone will sign Williams away, so he might be a stash for the practise squad. Is his return ability that good that it gets him on the 53-man roster alone? I’m not convinced.

Laviska Shenault could shove both of them out, of course. He might not be the same level of returner but he can do a lot for the team as a runner/receiver. Plus the block he had today on the Kenny McIntosh touchdown run was sublime.

It was interesting to see Mike Morris play as many snaps as he did today and throughout pre-season. My read on this is either they feel like he needs the conditioning/reps — or he’s perhaps more on the bubble than people realise.

Two sacks and three QB hits tonight for UDFA Jamie Sherriff showed why the Seahawks were so willing to move on from Darrell Taylor. As the ‘next man up’ off the edge, Sherriff has shown he can do a job. He’s also cheap — and even if he doesn’t make the roster, assuming he sticks on the practise squad — he’ll always be there to provide depth when needed. Unfortunately with Uchena Nwosu suffering a knee injury, that could also be a boost for Sherriff who just looks like a great fit for Macdonald’s defense. If he makes the team, it’ll be a remarkable story. He’s certainly someone to root for this week.

It was great to see the togetherness of the group, especially celebrating the Kenny McIntosh touchdown run and the Eskridge return.

McIntosh and George Holani should both be kept for me. The Seahawks need running back depth and they are two players who showed they can play in the league.

It’s clear that Anthony Bradford has won the right guard job. I’m not sure how to feel about this. The Seahawks drafted a pure right guard in round three this year and he couldn’t beat out Bradford? It already seems like they’re trying Christian Haynes at the left guard spot to try and provide depth — but we saw how that messed with Damien Lewis’ comfort levels. Given the Seahawks reportedly looked into trading up for the left sided Cooper Beebe — and considering the other attractive options available in the late third round — I hope Haynes doesn’t just end up being a backup.

It was great to see Ryan Grubb really attack the Browns on offense with that first drive and they looked like a fine-tuned machine. I think we’ve seen a hint at what the Seahawks are going to be like there — and they showed they can run the ball too. It was an exciting glimpse into Grubb’s vision.

Brady Russell, Jake Bobo, McIntosh and Holani —- I think these four players have a chance to end up providing really useful depth this year and could find a knack to make some key plays. I’ve got a feeling Russell could end up being a bit of a find for the Seahawks — he has the traits, the clutch-ability as a catcher, he’s a very willing blocker and he just has the personality of a NFL tight end.

Not many defenders played very well late in the game but Mario Kendricks and Patrick O’Connell had a good go. I think Tyrice Knight has done a good job during pre-season overall. Nehemiah Pritchett and DJ James showing a mix of potential but also some errors.

This has been a very positive pre-season experience. The new staff has breathed life into the franchise and like everyone, I’m very much looking forward to the new season. I suspect there will be teething problems at times — but that’s OK. This is year one of a project that will likely take some time. However, the signs are all positive that the franchise is heading in the right direction.

I’ll finish with this — someone who has been around the Seahawks staff this summer reached out to me this weekend and spoke extremely positively about his experience and the future of the team under their guidance. Just passing that on.

Also, I noticed Trey Lance threw five interceptions today for the Cowboys. I’m still amazed that two people with the track record of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch traded what they did for Lance, having reportedly not even scouted Patrick Mahomes as they intended to try and sign Kirk Cousins as a free agent. I can’t even believe there was even hype for Lance as a first round pick, frankly. It never made any sense at the time and it’s even more baffling today.

The Seahawks have had depth issues at linebacker all summer and they moved to address that today, acquiring rookie Michael Barrett in a trade with Carolina. The deal sends cornerback Michael Jackson to the Panthers.

I was a bit surprised the Seahawks didn’t draft Barrett, frankly. He has history with Mike Macdonald at Michigan and I had a fifth round grade on him. The Panthers drafted him in the seventh round. Barrett declared himself “the steal of the draft” after being taken. He fell in part due to poor testing numbers after getting injured pre-draft. The injury forced him to miss the Senior Bowl.

Seattle has cornerback depth and if Jackson was unlikely to make the roster, they won’t lose anything moving him on for a shot at adding to a position of need. With Jerome Baker injured again, this was more important than ever.

That said, Jackson played well in Seattle and the Panthers are getting more of a proven commodity. It speaks to the limited linebacker options available that this is the path the Seahawks have taken. I think they needed to draft another linebacker this year, rather than select two cornerbacks and two developmental offensive linemen. Especially with options available, such as Barrett.

Here’s what I wrote about the former Michigan man pre-draft:

Barrett is a no-frills linebacker but he plays with an extremely physical style, he’s reliable and he gets in the right position to do his job. He could come in and provide excellent special teams value and then develop into a potential starter down the line.

They had to find a way to add a linebacker one way or another. This addresses the issue to an extent and it’ll be interesting to see if his familiarity with the Head Coach helps.

One other name to keep an eye on might be Jamin Davis at Washington. He’s struggled since being taken in the first round three years ago. Despite incredible physical potential, it just hasn’t happened for him with the Commanders. This year he’s been switched to edge rusher, almost as a shot to nothing, with the belief he’s on the roster bubble and is a potential cut-candidate.

If he does become a free agent, he might be worth looking at — he’s still young (25) with great length, speed and explosive athleticism.

When I wrote-up the 2025 quarterback a few weeks ago, my main takeaway was that it’s currently a deep but fairly underwhelming class and there’s very much room for a player (or players) to elevate their stock.

For a team like the Seahawks without an obvious long-term answer at quarterback, it’s difficult to point to one or more of the 2025 quarterbacks and state ‘this is the one to watch’. I can imagine there are players who intrigue the Seahawks, for a variety of reasons, but no stand-out prospect at the moment.

However, one unique option could emerge.

When I wrote about Jalen Milroe I noted the following:

I’ve never watched Jalen Milroe and felt like I was watching a NFL starter. He has a decent arm but his accuracy can be an issue. His footwork and mechanics need major work. There’s no evidence of an ability to go through progressions and he looks like a good college athlete playing quarterback.

It’s not a glowing review, to say the least. However, there’s an angle to this that needs to be considered.

Kalen DeBoer, working with Ryan Grubb, had success in college with two very different players in Jake Haener and Michael Penix Jr. It’s a small sample size but they showed at Fresno State and Washington that they are adaptable and their scheming can deliver mass-production and results.

Milroe is another very different player to Haener and Penix Jr. However, the noise coming out of Alabama has been very positive about his development this year. You might expect that and it could just be the typical PR from the team.

That said, there have been numerous rumblings — including from people not directly working for Alabama — that Milroe has taken a big step forward technically. Big plays were never an issue, as we’ll come onto shortly. It was the technical aspect of the position. The word on the street is that his footwork is much better, as is his processing.

DeBoer addressed this himself back in May:

“I think processing [is where he’s improved]. Whether it be processing and going through progressions and being more disciplined with his footwork, and really paying attention to his footwork — tying the footwork to the timing and just that clock that you need to have in your head as a quarterback.”

“I think there were times when it was really good, and then all a sudden you add some more install, then it kind of drops off a little bit. I think as the spring went on again, he continued to elevate just playing ball. Just moving the chains and playing ball and not trying to run a play, but run an offense. I thought he did a good job of that.”

DeBoer then followed this up during fall camp:

“Today, he came out again, really he threw the deep ball probably as well as I’ve seen him throw. That’s a lot of guys and the timing, his rhythm and all of that coming into play. He’s getting more comfortable.”

It’s unlikely that Milroe is going to suddenly turn into a tremendous pocket passer. As noted, at times last season he didn’t really look like a NFL passer — rather he looked like someone with great athletic qualities to play off-platform at a high level in college. However, we’ve seen what DeBoer can do with players. Nobody anticipated Penix Jr’s 2022 season until it happened, or that by 2024 he’d be a top-10 draft pick.

Milroe doesn’t have to suddenly turn into a complete pocket passer anyway. His 96.9 passing grade on 20+ yard throws per PFF was the highest among returning QB’s this year. He had 27 ‘big time throws’ — the same number as Caleb Williams in 2023 (good for seventh most in college football). His ‘big time throw percentage’ of 9.1% was second highest among all college quarterbacks last season.

He also had 35 10+ yard runs, fourth most among quarterbacks (behind only Jayden Daniels, Thomas Castellanos and Kaidon Salter). While there’s room for improvement as a conventional passer, it’s clear Milroe possesses the kind of X-factor that can deliver chunk yardage.

Daniels is perhaps a good reminder of how a player can elevate his stock in a single season. I remember thinking after LSU’s week one loss to Florida State that he was unimpressive and that talk of being a mid or even late round pick was fair. By the end of the season he was the Heisman favourite and a lock to go in the top-five.

Milroe may not manage that kind of elevation but he has a lot of things stacked in his favour. His coach, for starters, and the track record he has for producing a great offense. Milroe has weapons, an excellent offensive line and he plays for Alabama who will be favoured in most games.

He’s even more intriguing from a Seahawks perspective because of the DeBoer connection. Ryan Grubb will presumably get an honest and detailed assessment from DeBoer on his pro-prospects. Their relationship could be critical here. If DeBoer offers his seal of approval, Milroe would then be well placed to transition to the Seahawks and play for Grubb. The terminology would be similar, their coaching style and system would have some crossover. It would be a good fit, especially if Milroe thrives this season and takes a technical step forward.

His arm strength would appear to fit a system that requires attacking every area of the field. His arm, big-play numbers, creativity and elusiveness may also appeal to John Schneider who has tended to prefer that type of skill-set.

I also think Schneider is big on the type of person/character he has at quarterback. Milroe is A+ in that regard. He is incredibly charismatic, personable, well spoken and has received the highest praise from everyone at Alabama for his character. He handled being benched last season superbly, fought back to regain his job and then finished strongly — leading Alabama to the SEC title.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Milroe could be a similar type of pro to Jalen Hurts. Lest we forget, it was a bit of a surprise when the Eagles took a chance on him in round two. He wasn’t even really considered in that range until after the combine, where he performed well. Although Hurts is far from perfect, he has quarterbacked Philadelphia to a Super Bowl, almost outgunning the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes for a title.

This was Lance Zierlein’s write-up of Hurts pre-draft:

Like Tim Tebow, Hurts is a winning dual-threat quarterback known for his strength, toughness and character. Hurts is a more accurate passer and better runner than Tebow but is inconsistent as a decision-maker and tends to break the pocket when throws are there to be made. His deep-ball touch and intermediate accuracy improved this year so teams may see him as a developmental talent who will keep getting better in the right scheme. He’ll struggle to beat NFL defenses from the pocket, but his ability to grind out yards on the ground and make off-schedule plays should make him a solid backup with upward mobility.

That review of Hurts is comparable to Milroe. If the Alabama quarterback can end his college career in a similar fashion (Hurts led Oklahoma to the BIG-12 title, a playoff berth and he finished second in the Heisman race behind Joe Burrow) then it’s possible his stock could similarly rise up.

Milroe’s physical talent, the fact he’s working with DeBoer and his maturity all work for the Seahawks if/when they finally decide to take a shot on drafting a quarterback. He is definitely one to watch when the college season begins.

There are others too — I suspect John Schneider might appreciate the natural talent of Quinn Ewers, for example. But Milroe is someone who might just be worth a bit of extra attention if he can produce for a coach in a system that Seattle’s offensive coordinator knows very well.

He’s not the only Alabama player to keep an eye on. If you missed my glowing report on left guard Tyler Booker, check it out here.

It’s quite ambitious to hope your offensive coordinator can emulate Kyle Shanahan. While the 49ers’ Head Coach has ultimately failed to get his team over the final hurdle, nobody can deny the success he’s had in creating offensive output without having a superstar quarterback.

This is the play-caller who guided Matt Ryan to a MVP season in 2016 and should’ve had a Super Bowl ring. He’s since enjoyed success in San Francisco with Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy, reaching a further Super Bowl with each while coming agonisingly close again on both occasions.

There aren’t many coaches who could get to three Super Bowls with Ryan, Garoppolo and Purdy, plus two additional NFC Championship games.

He also helped make Kirk Cousins a success in Washington, launching a career that has been surprisingly financially beneficial to the former fourth round pick.

The only real blot on his copybook was when the Niners swung for the fences, trading a fortune for the physically gifted but hopelessly raw Trey Lance.

In a year we may see Purdy paid a fortune to be the quote/unquote ‘franchise quarterback’ in Santa Clara. Truth be told, the 49ers would probably be better off letting Shanahan find the next Purdy. His system and his coaching is the true MVP.

Not even Sean McVay can boast a ‘QB whisperer’ track record like Shanahan’s. After all, he had a former #1 overall pick in Jared Goff to work with before trading a fortune for another former #1 overall pick in Matt Stafford to reach his two Super Bowls (winning one). He’s yet to show he can turn water into wine with an unknown, young QB.

Whatever happens with Ryan Grubb in Seattle, the most beneficial aspect of his offense might be for it to be user friendly. Hopefully it can be effectively brilliant, as Shanahan’s is. That’s the tricky part. But it would be a major boon for the Seahawks if they were able to create a functioning, productive offense that doesn’t require absolute brilliance at the quarterback position.

That’s easy to say, of course. But maybe there’s cause for optimism?

I finally watched the Titans game today after arriving back in the UK. I was impressed with Sam Howell’s first half. Again, you have to note the fact it’s just a pre-season game against mostly backups. He still made some good throws, moved the offense without a number of top weapons being on the field and he looks increasingly confident and comfortable after a reportedly tricky start to camp.

Grubb and Kalen DeBoer enjoyed success with different types of quarterback in college. Jake Haener and Michael Penix Jr couldn’t be more different in terms of arm strength yet both put up monster numbers.

Can the same thing happen in the pro’s, even if adaptations are required?

This could be the future defining factor in terms of legit contention. The NFL’s in a bit of a weird place at the moment. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are currently ranked 11th and 13th respectively in terms of average annual cap hit. Kirk Cousins’ average is the same as Mahomes’. The following players average more:

Deshaun Watson
Kyler Murray
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Trevor Lawrence
Jordan Love

You can easily make an argument that the key for the Seahawks is to avoid placing another name on this list. They don’t need to end up paying someone +$50m a year who isn’t amazing. It might be considered ‘market value’ if a player performs at a comparable level to Goff or Tagovailoa to give them such a salary. I’d argue the aim should be to try and find that same level of performance, at least, yet at a cheaper cost.

I think teams are becoming increasingly scared of the alternative. They think that a base line of production, making you somewhat competitive, is worth paying a fortune for. It’s just my personal opinion but I think if I was an owner, I’d rather empower my GM by taking the pressure off. Seek brilliance — don’t waste my money on a player who gets 10-wins and then bows out in the first two weeks of the playoffs. Take risks, be prepared to move on and look for greatness, rather than settle for less at a massive price.

And in the meantime, have an offense that enables you to be successful without requiring the best of the best under center.

Purdy will cost the 49ers $1m this year. He’ll probably enable San Francisco to outperform most (if not all) NFC opponents. Yes he’ll be aided by a loaded roster — but that’s partly because they can afford to pay everyone else with the quarterback not earning $50m a year.

Next year, I wouldn’t put Purdy’s name among the $50m list above if I were the 49ers. If Shanahan insisted it was best to make him a $50m man, I suppose you wouldn’t argue against him. I’m not sure that’s what he’ll think though.

This is ultimately what I hope for with Grubb in Seattle. I hope his system is so good that really, the Seahawks can be quite relaxed about the need to pay a quarterback. If they acquire greatness somehow and land the next superstar young QB — that’s different, clearly. Until that happens though, it’d be great to have a system like San Francisco’s where players can be placed within it — and thrive — at a value cost.

It’d provide such a significant edge against other teams throwing money at non-elite QB’s.

It’ll be some time yet before we can determine whether Grubb has this ability, as he and DeBoer did in college. They turned Haener from a Washington backup into a 9,120, 68-touchdown passer at Fresno. They had Penix Jr on the brink of the Heisman and a National Championship after he left Indiana basically known as an injury-hit fun-but-inconsistent afterthought.

Given how challenging it is to find brilliance at quarterback in college, even when you draft golden-boy talents with the #1 pick (see: Jacksonville) — creating a system that allows you to thrive with value could be a difference maker for the new era of Seahawks football.

It could also enable them to, in the future, throw some money at the offensive line if they’re making savings at QB.

I’m not saying it’ll be easy. I appreciate this is a discussion about an ideal scenario. It’s what I’m hoping for.

Under Pete Carroll, it always felt individual quality at quarterback was the key — especially in the post-Marshawn Lynch years. Can the Seahawks now become a great system offense? Can they be tactically brilliant? Can they find quarterbacks who fit, like the 49ers, to unlock opportunities to save money and exploit an edge over teams who, arguably, have paid too much on non-elite QB’s?

That could be the key to being a great team, at least until they can identify the long term future at quarterback — which as we’ve seen in the past, can take years.

Suddenly it’s the big topic among Seahawks fans and media, after Mike Garafolo told Puck Sports this week that Geno Smith’s camp had broached the subject of a new contract with the team. Nothing was imminent, said Garafolo, but it seems to have ignited a debate.

It shouldn’t happen though. Not now.

The Seahawks would be entering a market with no leverage. Several quarterbacks recently re-set the market for contracts. Jordan Love ($55m a year), Trevor Lawrence ($55m), Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1m) and Jared Goff ($53m) are not among the NFL’s elite. They are the highest paid players in the league though, along with Joe Burrow ($55m), simply because of the position they play.

There’s no reason to walk into that type of deal unless you absolutely have to — and the Seahawks are not in that position.

Smith has a contract for 2025 worth $38.5m. They have an ideal grace period in 2024 to watch how the quarterback adapts to Ryan Grubb’s offense. The new coaches can get a feel for him, they can determine how much of a long-term fixture he’s likely to be. If he has a great season this year, that would be a good time to talk about an extension. If he doesn’t excel, you retain the ability to move on or run the deal through to its conclusion.

Making a deal any earlier than next off-season would simply be bidding against yourself. The fact is Smith tested free agency in 2023 and this was the deal he chose from what appeared to be a very lukewarm market. I can recall during the 2023 combine there were no reports of mass interest in Smith. There was a tentative link to Tampa Bay because Dave Canales had just taken over as offensive coordinator but the Buccs were being more heavily linked with Baker Mayfield (who they signed). Rightly or wrongly, there didn’t seem to be much interest at all in Smith outside of Seattle.

The Seahawks were able to agree terms on a contract that both rewarded Smith financially, although not at the top-end, while retaining options to get out the deal at various check points. He effectively signed a year-to-year contract.

A year on, I’m not sure why they would suddenly feel obliged to tear this up and go all-in on a massive new agreement. Smith’s 2023 season was a tale of two halves, as has been the case in the three most significant seasons of his career (as noted in this article). He didn’t hit any of his contract escalators. Where exactly is the pressure to adjust his contract this year?

Because the Seahawks have him contracted for 2025, they can easily afford to wait and see how he performs. Then if you decide he’s worth a new contract, go for it.

Why would they do anything else? It’s not like Smith is going to suddenly hold out a few weeks before the season. He’s back in prove-it mood for the new coaches. If he proves it, the chances are he’ll be rewarded next off-season. Right now, there’s little reason for the Seahawks to do anything but sit and wait.

There are some other things worth considering here. By all accounts, the rest of the league has had a degree of scepticism around Smith. As noted earlier, there was no free agency buzz around him at the 2023 combine before he re-signed in Seattle. Then earlier this year, we had quid-pro-quo Adam Schefter basically doing the Seahawks a solid by dropping a tweet suggesting Smith’s contract would be excellent value for a trade partner. Again, there were seemingly no takers. The Seahawks having this knowledge can guide them somewhat when it comes to engaging talks and how they approach such a negotiation.

Smith’s in a different place in his career compared to Love, Lawrence and Tagovailoa. The Packers, Jaguars and Dolphins are paying a premium in the hope that their quarterbacks will continue to develop and improve. They’re taking a big financial gamble, paying for the hope of future success rather than anything proven to this point.

Smith is closer to the end of his career and by nature, he’s not going to get a mega-deal to be some kind of long term answer. If he plays for the next six years, to take him to age 40, aside from the fact that’d be a physical achievement most don’t reach, he’ll still likely be relying on short-term contracts with flexible team options. That’s generally what happens when you reach your mid-30’s and you’re not a top-five QB.

Even Jared Goff’s in a very different place to Smith. He’s four years younger and really should’ve played in a Super Bowl last season, if it wasn’t for a Lions second-half meltdown and some outrageous fortune for the 49ers. Goff, lest we forget, has already played in a Super Bowl team in LA. Smith doesn’t have this on his résumé.

It feels like a really fluid and obvious situation. The quarterback and team agreed, 12 months ago, to a team friendly deal. The Seahawks benefit from that now. Smith’s performance in 2023 doesn’t mean a desperate re-negotiation is necessary. Meanwhile, there’s a great challenge here to Smith to have a great season with the aim of boosting his salary in 12 months. Anything else would be premature, there’s little reason for the Seahawks to jump into this market now. It’d basically be the Seahawks taking on a huge cost for no reason.

I also think this is a topic for the off-season, not mid-season. I do think playoff performance matters. In an ideal world the Seahawks not only qualify for the post-season, they then make some noise in the playoffs. That’s the point where the team and QB would be in a great place to discuss an extension with bigger numbers attached. You need the post-season, though, to get a full picture of the bargaining positions for both parties.

You can’t blame Smith’s representatives for asking the question this summer. You equally can’t blame the Seahawks for saying, ‘not today’. This is an issue for after the 2024 season.

Check it out!