Suddenly it’s the big topic among Seahawks fans and media, after Mike Garafolo told Puck Sports this week that Geno Smith’s camp had broached the subject of a new contract with the team. Nothing was imminent, said Garafolo, but it seems to have ignited a debate.
It shouldn’t happen though. Not now.
The Seahawks would be entering a market with no leverage. Several quarterbacks recently re-set the market for contracts. Jordan Love ($55m a year), Trevor Lawrence ($55m), Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1m) and Jared Goff ($53m) are not among the NFL’s elite. They are the highest paid players in the league though, along with Joe Burrow ($55m), simply because of the position they play.
There’s no reason to walk into that type of deal unless you absolutely have to — and the Seahawks are not in that position.
Smith has a contract for 2025 worth $38.5m. They have an ideal grace period in 2024 to watch how the quarterback adapts to Ryan Grubb’s offense. The new coaches can get a feel for him, they can determine how much of a long-term fixture he’s likely to be. If he has a great season this year, that would be a good time to talk about an extension. If he doesn’t excel, you retain the ability to move on or run the deal through to its conclusion.
Making a deal any earlier than next off-season would simply be bidding against yourself. The fact is Smith tested free agency in 2023 and this was the deal he chose from what appeared to be a very lukewarm market. I can recall during the 2023 combine there were no reports of mass interest in Smith. There was a tentative link to Tampa Bay because Dave Canales had just taken over as offensive coordinator but the Buccs were being more heavily linked with Baker Mayfield (who they signed). Rightly or wrongly, there didn’t seem to be much interest at all in Smith outside of Seattle.
The Seahawks were able to agree terms on a contract that both rewarded Smith financially, although not at the top-end, while retaining options to get out the deal at various check points. He effectively signed a year-to-year contract.
A year on, I’m not sure why they would suddenly feel obliged to tear this up and go all-in on a massive new agreement. Smith’s 2023 season was a tale of two halves, as has been the case in the three most significant seasons of his career (as noted in this article). He didn’t hit any of his contract escalators. Where exactly is the pressure to adjust his contract this year?
Because the Seahawks have him contracted for 2025, they can easily afford to wait and see how he performs. Then if you decide he’s worth a new contract, go for it.
Why would they do anything else? It’s not like Smith is going to suddenly hold out a few weeks before the season. He’s back in prove-it mood for the new coaches. If he proves it, the chances are he’ll be rewarded next off-season. Right now, there’s little reason for the Seahawks to do anything but sit and wait.
There are some other things worth considering here. By all accounts, the rest of the league has had a degree of scepticism around Smith. As noted earlier, there was no free agency buzz around him at the 2023 combine before he re-signed in Seattle. Then earlier this year, we had quid-pro-quo Adam Schefter basically doing the Seahawks a solid by dropping a tweet suggesting Smith’s contract would be excellent value for a trade partner. Again, there were seemingly no takers. The Seahawks having this knowledge can guide them somewhat when it comes to engaging talks and how they approach such a negotiation.
Smith’s in a different place in his career compared to Love, Lawrence and Tagovailoa. The Packers, Jaguars and Dolphins are paying a premium in the hope that their quarterbacks will continue to develop and improve. They’re taking a big financial gamble, paying for the hope of future success rather than anything proven to this point.
Smith is closer to the end of his career and by nature, he’s not going to get a mega-deal to be some kind of long term answer. If he plays for the next six years, to take him to age 40, aside from the fact that’d be a physical achievement most don’t reach, he’ll still likely be relying on short-term contracts with flexible team options. That’s generally what happens when you reach your mid-30’s and you’re not a top-five QB.
Even Jared Goff’s in a very different place to Smith. He’s four years younger and really should’ve played in a Super Bowl last season, if it wasn’t for a Lions second-half meltdown and some outrageous fortune for the 49ers. Goff, lest we forget, has already played in a Super Bowl team in LA. Smith doesn’t have this on his résumé.
It feels like a really fluid and obvious situation. The quarterback and team agreed, 12 months ago, to a team friendly deal. The Seahawks benefit from that now. Smith’s performance in 2023 doesn’t mean a desperate re-negotiation is necessary. Meanwhile, there’s a great challenge here to Smith to have a great season with the aim of boosting his salary in 12 months. Anything else would be premature, there’s little reason for the Seahawks to jump into this market now. It’d basically be the Seahawks taking on a huge cost for no reason.
I also think this is a topic for the off-season, not mid-season. I do think playoff performance matters. In an ideal world the Seahawks not only qualify for the post-season, they then make some noise in the playoffs. That’s the point where the team and QB would be in a great place to discuss an extension with bigger numbers attached. You need the post-season, though, to get a full picture of the bargaining positions for both parties.
You can’t blame Smith’s representatives for asking the question this summer. You equally can’t blame the Seahawks for saying, ‘not today’. This is an issue for after the 2024 season.
