I never understood why people put ‘1.0’ after their mocks, given there’s never an updated ‘1.1’. And yet here I am. I guess you could call this ‘mock 3.1’.

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
I still don’t believe the Titans will reach on a quarterback with the roster needing major work. They should take a step back and embrace a build. They can’t just keep throwing young quarterbacks into the fire. Carter recorded 66 pressures in his final season at Penn State, the same number Nick Bosa had in his last full season at Ohio State.

#2 Cleveland — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
They are consigned to another year of paying Deshaun Watson and this isn’t a good quarterback class at the top end. The Browns made the playoffs with Joe Flacco in 2023 and might feel they can quickly bounce back with a veteran presence under center. Kirk Cousins would only cost the veteran minimum and he had a successful two years with Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota. Then, they can draft a quarterback later — allowing them to take a different player here. There’s been talk of ‘Coach Prime’ warning the Browns off Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, so Cleveland might pivot to the trenches.

#3 NY Giants — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
In this projection I have the Rams trading Matthew Stafford to the Giants for the 34th pick. The Giants therefore don’t select a quarterback here, instead they take Travis Hunter.

#4 New England — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The Patriots could be big spenders in free agency to try and repair their offensive line. Tyler Warren is one of the best players in the draft. He was Drew Allar’s #1 target — a playmaker and a safety valve. Giving Drake Maye a fantastic, reliable weapon like this could be the making of him — provided they add O-liners in free agency. You have to believe they will.

#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
It just feels a bit like an injury-hit season has made everyone forget what a good player Johnson is — one of the very best in this draft. The Jaguars need a playmaker in their secondary.

#6 Las Vegas — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
Booker has the best guard tape since Quenton Nelson, the #6 overall pick in 2018. It’s not just the tape though. It’s his leadership and presence. With Pete Carroll seeking to re-set the culture in Vegas, this is more than just an injection of talent for the offensive line. It’s a statement of intent to build a new personality within the building.

#7 NY Jets — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
Ward is not a can’t-miss quarterback prospect so the idea of him lasting to #7 shouldn’t be some kind of big shock. We’ll see how he weighs and measures at the combine. There’s a reason why, a year ago, he wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl and was being projected in the later rounds. The Jets need a quarterback and Ward’s personality feels like a good match for new Head Coach Aaron Glenn as he tries to build a culture in New York.

#8 Carolina — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
I’ve been saying it for months — Loveland will be graded way higher than the internet is suggesting. It’s now being reported by some well known pundits that he won’t get out of the top-15. He will be seen as one of the few genuine first round talents in the class. He can become Bryce Young’s go-to target.

#9 New Orleans — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
Kellen Moore just won a Super Bowl in part because the Eagles have the best offensive line in the NFL. This isn’t New Orleans’ biggest need but they do have a hole at left guard. Why not make the O-line the focal point of your team? Plug Membou in at left guard and get to work running the football.

#10 Chicago — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
Someone is going to take Jeanty early. He will be the highest graded player on several boards and the only reason he wouldn’t go earlier is due to positional value. The Bears should set out to make big splashes in free agency to fill holes on their offensive line (it won’t be a surprise if they win the race for Trey Smith). Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit featured two dynamic running backs, including one drafted in this range. Jeanty can be an absolute star here.

#11 San Francisco — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
I’m not a huge fan of Grant’s overall tape. I wanted to see more aggression and I think he relies too much on his (admittedly unique for his size) quickness. He didn’t make enough plays despite playing next to Mason Graham. However, if he tests as well as everyone says at 340lbs, I concede he will go earlier than my grade suggests. The 49ers need to replace Javon Hargrave. They built their way to success with a great defensive line previously. Nick Bosa needs help.

#12 Dallas — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
People are sleeping on Colston Loveland because his offense collapsed in 2024 and Burden’s getting the same treatment. He didn’t really fit the Mizzou system. The league will see a top-level talent and he could be absolutely electric when paired with Ceedee Lamb. The Cowboys often find value in this range.

#13 Miami — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
He’s such a playmaker and his character’s off the charts. Barron can play in the slot or outside, he plays with physicality and has great character. The most impressive thing in 2024 was seeing how much he attacked defending the run.

#14 Indianapolis — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
The Colts haven’t been afraid to draft short-armed tackles in the past (Bernhard Raimann, Braden Smith). They could put Campbell at guard initially, with the idea he could kick outside in the future. I thought Campbell played poorly in 2024 and was a disappointment. I don’t think he’ll go as early as some think.

#15 Atlanta — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
It’s hard to place Walker after his 2024 season. He flashed greatness early on, then went into his shell a bit. He’s a lesser version of Abdul Carter. Some teams will grade him very highly I’m sure. If the Falcons are one of those teams, their GM Terry Fontenot is a big proponent of ‘best player available’.

#16 Arizona — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
I thought his Senior Bowl appearance was overrated. He kept going to the same ineffective spin-move, then he had one good rep against Josh Conerly Jr (playing on the opposite side of the line to the one he’s used to) and suddenly he’s in a cab back to the airport calling it a job done. Give me a break. That said, his tape is quite electrifying and he plays with a non-stop motor. You can’t ignore 17 sacks in 2024.

#17 Cincinnati — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Some thought Williams could turn into a top-five pick with a strong 2024 season but it never happened. He needs to test well to charge up his stock because there’s too much projection and too little production with Williams.

#18 Seattle — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
Banks’ best fit will be to kick inside to guard. His zone blocking grade at tackle for Texas was decent (81.5) and might improve when he moves inside. He’ll go earlier than this if teams think he can excel at tackle but I’m not convinced they will. I don’t think he’s as good as Alijah Vera-Tucker coming out but he’s bigger and could/should make the same transition inside.

#19 Tampa Bay — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
He looks the part of a top pass-rusher and his run-stop responsibility percentage was surprisingly high. He does look a little bit stiff at times bending the arc and his production in 2024 was underwhelming.

#20 Denver — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
Sean Payton likes these types of defender, previously spending two first round picks on Marcus Davenport. It’s easy to imagine him gambling on Stewart, who has incredible physical tools but too often didn’t finish plays and was spelled a bit too much to be comfortable with at Texas A&M.

#21 Pittsburgh — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
The Steelers need a drama-free wide receiver and that’s what McMillan can be. He tracks the ball brilliantly in the air and can contort his body to make difficult grabs look easy. He can be an impact player in Pittsburgh and doesn’t need perfectly thrown passes to make plays.

#22 LA Chargers — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
By far Texas’ best weapon in 2024, Golden combined dynamic quickness with difficult grabs and big plays. The Chargers are a trenches team and could be losing their best two edge rushers so I’m not that comfortable pairing them with a receiver — but this would be a good match for Justin Herbert.

#23 Green Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
His run defense will get him on the field early and he has a terrific assortment of moves to get into the backfield. Testing will be key but there’s a heck of a player here with technique, field IQ and length.

#24 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
His run defense is good at his size which is a huge plus but aside from a couple of decent games last season I don’t think we saw a game-wrecker.

#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
Reportedly he has 36-inch arms which makes you wonder if some teams might consider whether he has positional flexibility, especially given how he finished the season. The Texans badly need to improve their offensive line.

#26 LA Rams — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Sanders lasts a bit. There’s nothing physically or analytically that stands out as special and his percentage responsibility for creating sacks and pressures is obscene. Even so, there might be an opportunistic offensive mind who thinks they can get the best out of him and ‘Coach Prime’ would surely approve of a home for his son in LA with Sean McVay.

#27 Baltimore — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
His play fell off a cliff in the second half of the season and there’s no guarantee he’ll go in the first round. The Ravens need a safety though and they have a knack of capitalising on talent when players drop into range.

#28 Detroit — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
He’s just such a fluid, explosive mover for his position and he’s built like a tank. There’s also increasing talk that some teams might try and turn him into an EDGE rusher. He’s a very intriguing talent.

#29 Washington — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
The best left tackle in the draft who only lasts this long because he’s recovering from a knee injury. This would be a great get for the Commanders.

#30 Buffalo — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
Testing will be key because of his size — can he transition with ease and change direction? His tape is very good and he had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl.

#31 Kansas City — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
No, this isn’t the biggest priority for the Chiefs. The point of a mock draft though isn’t to just fill every teams’ biggest need. Henderson is absolutely electrifying as a runner and the Chiefs are always looking for X-factor players.

#32 Cleveland (v/PHI) — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
If they add Kirk Cousins in free agency, they can look to add a quarterback here. Dart has the analytical data of a player who will go in this range. The Browns jump up one spot to ensure they get the fifth-year option.

Round two

#33 Philadelphia (v/CLE) — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
The Eagles could lose talent at linebacker in free agency. Schwesinger might be a one-year wonder but his tape was absolutely fantastic in 2024.

#34 LA Rams (v/NYG) — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
With Cooper Kupp moving on the Rams go and get a downfield threat to complement Puka Nacua as they further re-shape their offense.

#35 Tennessee — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
The Titans continue to draft for talent and add a player with all of the tools needed to be an excellent tight end.

#36 Jacksonville — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
Egbuka would be an ideal WR2 to place alongside Brian Thomas Jr. It’s easy to imagine him having the same kind of success as Jalen McMillan did as a rookie in Liam Coen’s offense.

#37 Las Vegas — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
Tre’von Moehrig is a free agent but even if they keep him, we know Pete Carroll loves a playmaking safety. Watts had 13 interceptions in the last two seasons.

#38 New England — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
He might be a bit stiff but then you just look at the frame and focus on the wins and you realise — some teams are going to value this guy way higher than the Mike Green types who are short and lack length. Jackson is built like a terminator and is a ‘win getting off the bus’ type of player.

#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
After a brilliant week in Mobile, Arroyo could be Chicago’s answer to Sam LaPorta for Ben Johnson.

#40 New Orleans — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
The Saints start to consider life after Cam Jordan. Some like Scourton more than I do — I see another Boogie Basham or AJ Epeneza type.

#41 Chicago — Josh Conerly (T, Oregon)
He’s really scrappy on tape and Ben Johnson will probably like that. It’ll remind him of the way his offense in Detroit competed.

#42 NY Jets — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Williams would make a terrific, stout partner for Quinnen Williams. He does such a good job against the run.

#43 San Francisco — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Stewart’s 27% pass-rush win-percentage led the class for 2024. He wrecked the game against USC. The combine is big for him given his lack of length and height.

#44 Dallas — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
He might have the weight of a nose tackle but he’s far from that — he’s way more penetrative and athletic. He’s only scratched the surface of his potential so far.

#45 Indianapolis — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
The Colts love big-time athletes. Emmanwori could easily go in the first round but it’s not unusual for safety’s to last.

#46 Atlanta — Grey Zabel (G/C, North Dakota State)
If the Falcons lose Drew Dalman in free agency, Zabel could be his replacement.

#47 Arizona — Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
He showed a few flashes of Chris Jones at the Senior Bowl. The Cardinals need playmakers up front.

#48 Miami — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
Harman’s pass-rush production is excellent but will it translate given his lack of a prototypical frame?

#49 Cincinnati — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
This is quite a fall and maybe an over-correction on my behalf but I just wanted to see more at the Senior Bowl.

#50 Seattle — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
I’ve had Swinson in this range for a long time but I’m starting to wonder if he won’t last this long. He has great length, he bends the arc brilliantly, he has powerful hands and he has a sprinkling of star quality to his personality. His win percentage of 22% is excellent. If you want to see what he’s capable of, watch the Ole Miss tape from 2024. He wrecked the game. The Seahawks need game-wreckers.

#51 Denver — Harold Fanin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
The Broncos need a tight end. Sean Payton has found ways to max-out receiver-first TE’s in the past and Fanin Jr might appeal to him.

#52 Pittsburgh — Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina)
Hampton does have a Steelers feel to his game, given his massive yards-after-contact destruction, second only to Ashton Jeanty.

#53 Tampa Bay — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
Injury prevented him from maxing out his stock at Penn State but he’s a quality player who could provide real value here.

#54 Green Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
He’s a one-year wonder but the brilliant Senior Bowl performance showed he has legit qualities and he could end up being another Jordy Nelson for the Packers.

#55 LA Chargers — Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
Simply put, this guy is a dude. Amazing frame, plays with his hair on fire, gets everyone going. One of the Senior Bowl’s big winners.

#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
The more you dig into his tape and background (three sport athlete) you start to wonder how early he could go. Excellent potential.

#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
A tremendous player with a high level of intensity, power, athleticism and character. He had seven sacks in 2024. If you missed my recent interview with him, check it out here. He could be an option for the Seahawks.

#58 Houston — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
The Stefon Diggs experiment didn’t work, so here’s the replacement.

#59 Baltimore — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
The Ravens continue to add players to their secondary. Hairston looked so smooth during Senior Bowl 1v1’s.

#60 Detroit — Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
Everything about Sawyer feels like a Lions pick. He’ll have to handle moving to Michigan but it’s very easy to imagine him landing in Detroit. Not a great athlete but his character and playing style screams Dan Campbell.

#61 Washington — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
I think Johnson is RB2 in this draft class. A tremendous player who could be a star in the right system.

#62 Buffalo — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
I just think there’s too much average tape with JTT and he doesn’t look like a difference maker.

#63 Kansas City — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
I’m not sure how to judge Umanmielen. I know the Chiefs need a left tackle but I’m not sure another rookie is the answer.

#64 Philadelphia — Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)
Turner plays on the edge of what is, shall we say, acceptable. Some teams will love what he brings, others not so much. There will be flags in his future.

A few thoughts on the Seahawks

— They have to compete in free agency to fix their offensive line. The can’t rely on someone like Kelvin Banks Jr or Tyler Booker lasting to #18. Yes, the top players available will be very expensive. You might feel uncomfortable splashing out on a guard and a center. If you want to be the kind of team capable of beating teams up, making them fear you home or away and if you want to run the ball effectively, you have no choice. Nothing will super-charge this team and fanbase more than a couple of splashes on the O-line. Carolina did it with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis a year ago. Better players are available in this free agency pool. Make it happen.

— I truly believe Bradyn Swinson can be what the Seahawks currently lack — a potential game-changer off the edge. Testing will be important for him. I’ll say this though — if he produces a great 10-yard split at the combine, you’ll start hearing his name in the first round mix. I’m convinced the Seahawks will take a defensive lineman with one of their top two picks. They’ve done it in eight of the last 10 drafts. In one of those other two drafts, they took Derick Hall with their third pick at the start of round two.

— There is a possibility, in my opinion, that the Seahawks could take a quarterback at #82. I do think there’s a chance the likes of Will Howard and Quinn Ewers could be options for the Seahawks. Even if they take one in that range, I’d still like to see them come away with Kurtis Rourke. I think he looks like an excellent fit for the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme.

— I’d love to find a way to get back the fourth rounder they gave to Tennessee for Ernest Jones. I’m not sure how you do it without trading down from #18 or #50 — and that might not be possible if the players you really want last to those picks. I don’t think they’re trading DK Metcalf away. Is there any way to fill the big gap between their picks at #82 and #137?

I decided to do video analysis this time instead of a blurb but the full list of the mock draft is below…

Round one

#1 Tennessee — Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State)
#2 Cleveland — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
#3 NY Giants — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
#4 New England — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
#6 Las Vegas — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
#7 NY Jets — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
#8 Carolina — Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
#9 New Orleans — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
#10 Chicago — Armand Membou (T/G, Missouri)
#11 San Francisco — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
#12 Dallas — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
#13 Miami — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
#14 Indianapolis — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
#15 Atlanta — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
#16 Arizona — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
#17 Cincinnati — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
#18 Seattle — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
#19 Tampa Bay — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
#20 Denver — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
#21 Pittsburgh — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
#22 LA Chargers — Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
#23 Green Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
#24 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
#26 LA Rams — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
#27 Baltimore — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
#28 Detroit — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
#29 Washington — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
#30 Buffalo — Azareye’h Thomas (CB, Florida State)
#31 NY Giants (v/KC) — Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss)
#32 Philadelphia — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)

Round two

#33 Cleveland — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
#34 Kansas City (v/NYG) — Josh Conerly (T, Oregon)
#35 Tennessee — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
#36 Jacksonville — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
#37 Las Vegas — Tre Harris (WR, Ole Miss)
#38 New England — Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
#39 Chicago (v/CAR) — Elijah Arroyo (TE, Miami)
#40 New Orleans — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
#41 Chicago — TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State)
#42 NY Jets — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
#43 San Francisco — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
#44 Dallas — Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
#45 Indianapolis — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
#46 Atlanta — Grey Zabel (G/C, North Dakota State)
#47 Arizona — Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
#48 Miami — Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
#49 Cincinnati — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
#50 Seattle — Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
#51 Denver — Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
#52 Pittsburgh — Isaiah Bond (WR, Texas)
#53 Tampa Bay — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
#54 Green Bay — Jack Bech (WR, TCU)
#55 LA Chargers — Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
#56 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
#57 Carolina (v/LAR) — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
#58 Houston — Jayden Higgins (WR, Iowa State)
#59 Baltimore — Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
#60 Detroit — Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
#61 Washington — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
#62 Buffalo — JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
#63 Kansas City — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
#64 Philadelphia — Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)

If you can, give the video a like on YouTube and leave a comment. The show this week discusses my series of articles from earlier in the week, focusing on quarterbacks and offensive linemen…

Over the last two days we looked at the data for offensive and defensive linemen. Today, it’s the turn of the quarterbacks…

I have collected different data points and displayed them here for the purpose of discussion. Nothing below proves any player will be good or bad at the next level. Information about third downs isn’t available to the public, neither is completion percentage when scrambling. So this is an incomplete picture. I still think there’s some interesting stuff here.

Big time throws in 2024

Kyle McCord — 36
Cam Ward — 31
Jaxson Dart — 30
Seth Henigan — 30
Shedeur Sanders — 26
Will Howard — 22
Tyler Shough — 21
Quinn Ewers — 20
Kurtis Rourke — 19
Jalen Milroe — 18
Riley Leonard — 18
Dillon Gabriel — 15
Brady Cook — 13
Max Brosmer — 13

Turnover worthy plays in 2024

Kyle McCord — 24
Quinn Ewers — 21
Cam Ward — 18
Will Howard — 15
Jaxson Dart — 11
Seth Henigan — 11
Kurtis Rourke — 10
Jalen Milroe — 10
Riley Leonard — 10
Shedeur Sanders — 8
Tyler Shough — 8
Dillon Gabriel — 8
Max Brosmer — 8
Brady Cook — 4

From these two sets of data, it’s clear that Kyle McCord played with a ‘go big or go home’ mentality in 2024. He threw by far the most big time throws and turnover worthy plays. This is difficult to analyse. Can you coach him to pick his moments and still remain an explosive passer, while reducing the risky throws? Or are we just going to see a player who is a turnover machine at the next level, when the difficulty level to deliver big time throws increases?

One thing in McCord’s favour is he had easily the shortest amount of time to throw (2.41 seconds) in the group. Kurtis Rourke (2.56) and Quinn Ewers (2.59) were next. McCord threw 11 big time throws when considered ‘under pressure’ compared to nine turnover worthy plays. We’ll dig into those numbers in more detail in a moment.

This highlights how challenging Ewers found the 2024 season. Having 20 big time throws compared to 21 turnover worthy plays is problematic. It’s worth noting he played in the difficult SEC but there were several instances where Ewers threw frustratingly risky passes, locked on to his primary read and looked scrambled in the head.

The injuries no doubt played a part. Suffering with abdomen and ankle issues isn’t conducive with excellent quarterback play. It’s a valid excuse but also a concern. Ewers never stayed healthy in college. He looks light in the frame and teams will worry about his durability.

There is one important thing to acknowledge. Seven of his 2024 turnover worthy plays occurred in one game against Georgia, when he’d just returned from injury. On that day the Georgia front seven dominated Texas up front. In the SEC Championship rematch and three subsequent playoff — all against strong opponents — Ewers’ ratio of BTT/TWP was a healthier 11/6.

Here’s a +/- breakdown for big time throws vs turnover worthy plays:

Jaxson Dart — 19
Seth Henigan — 19
Shedeur Sanders — 18
Cam Ward — 13
Tyler Shough — 13
Kyle McCord — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 9
Brady Cook — 9
Jalen Milroe — 8
Riley Leonard — 8
Will Howard — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Max Brosmer — 5
Quinn Ewers — -1

When highlighted like this, it really emphasises how bad this area is for Ewers. Even if you generously wanted to acknowledge the difficult situation in the first Georgia game and halved the number of turnover worthy plays, he’d still be at the bottom of the list.

The season prior — a healthier season, albeit one played in the BIG-12 instead of the SEC — Ewers threw 16 big time passes compared to eight turnover worthy plays. That might be more reflective of who he is. Even still, his +8 mark from 2023 is still towards the bottom of the list above.

Like many people, I’ve been wondering why Jaxson Dart is suddenly being promoted in the media after a non-spectacular Senior Bowl. This article overall might help explain why. Lane Kiffin’s scheme is difficult to project for the NFL. However, Dart clearly did a good job making big plays with his arm without throwing a lot of risky passes. There’s a lot more on Dart to come.

Seth Henigan’s small hands (8 7/8 inches) are a disappointment because he had a record-breaking career at Memphis and out of all the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl he played best in the game. The competition level was weaker in the AAC but the numbers are good above. Likewise, Shedeur Sanders excels.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (+/- BTT vs TWP)

Michael Penix Jr — 32
Drake Maye — 26
Jayden Daniels — 22
Jaxson Dart — 19
Seth Henigan — 19
Shedeur Sanders — 18
Bo Nix — 15
Cam Ward — 13
Tyler Shough — 13
Kyle McCord — 12
Caleb Williams — 9
JJ McCarthy — 9
Spencer Rattler — 1

As good as Dart is in this area relative to the 2025 class, his +19 mark is some way behind Penix Jr and Maye. He’s sandwiched between Daniels and Nix, so is Sanders. That’s good company to keep given their rookie performances.

+/- BTT vs TWP under pressure in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 4
Kyle McCord — 2
Shedeur Sanders — 2
Brady Cook — 2
Max Brosmer — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1
Dillon Gabriel — 1
Tyler Shough — 0
Jalen Milroe — -1
Seth Henigan — -1
Cam Ward — -3
Riley Leonard — -3
Quinn Ewers — -5
Will Howard — -6

This is where it gets worse for Ewers. Under pressure, he was unable to deliver big throws and turned the ball over. It’s even worse for Will Howard. You can see Dart at the top of the list again. This could be another reason why teams are projecting him early. Do they see a superior ability than his peers to deliver a good amount of explosive passes, even when under pressure ?

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (+/- BTT vs TWP under pressure)

Michael Penix Jr — 9
Jaxson Dart — 4
Bo Nix — 4
Jayden Daniels — 3
Drake Maye — 2
Kyle McCord — 2
Shedeur Sanders — 2
JJ McCarthy — 1
Spencer Rattler — -1
Cam Ward — -3
Caleb Williams — -6

It really speaks to Penix Jr’s arm talent that he was able to deliver the numbers he did in this category. Once again, Dart is in the same kind of range as Nix and Daniels. I wouldn’t read too much into Caleb Williams being in the same ugly area as Ewers and Howard. Williams brought about NCAA-leading amounts of pressure upon himself. That was his game.

Passer rating (NFL version) on play action in 2024

Kurtis Rourke — 147.5
Will Howard — 140.8
Seth Henigan — 136.4
Jaxson Dart — 134.3
Cam Ward — 132.7
Kyle McCord — 125.6
Riley Leonard — 123.0
Shedeur Sanders — 118.9
Jalen Milroe — 112.2
Tyler Shough — 111.8
Quinn Ewers — 108.2
Dillon Gabriel — 107.8
Brady Cook — 106.8
Max Brosmer — 101.5

For a system like Seattle’s where play-action is likely to be featured going forward, the results above are pretty good across the board. You’d expect that — play-action is supposed to challenge a defense.

The two names at the top really stand out. Kurtis Rourke is fantastic on play-action and Will Howard also scores very highly.

I’ve long thought Rourke could excel as a later round pick in the Shanahan system. The Seahawks now operate that offense. He doesn’t have a great arm but he’s also shown an ability to throw accurately to most levels, without great protection at Indiana (second worst time to throw among these QB’s). I think his ball-placement, especially on difficult layered passes to the sideline, is a highlight.

His ACL injury, however, is problematic for his draft stock. It could rule him out of his first training camp and maybe even his full rookie campaign. You’re basically pressing pause on his development until he’s healthy. Will he be drafted? If not, adding him as an UDFA for a redshirt season could be a wise move.

It’s a more positive mark for Howard given the situation with turnover worthy plays against pressure. However, with all of the quarterbacks performing well in play-action — I’m not sure there’s that much to glean from this.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (Passer rating on play action)

Jayden Daniels — 158.3
Kurtis Rourke — 147.5
Bo Nix — 142.1
Will Howard — 140.8
Seth Henigan — 136.4
Michael Penix Jr — 134.8
Jaxson Dart — 134.3
Cam Ward — 132.7
JJ McCarthy — 131.7
Kyle McCord — 125.6
Riley Leonard — 123.0
Spencer Rattler — 122.8
Shedeur Sanders — 118.9
Caleb Williams — 113.5
Drake Maye — 98.7

Maye struggled in this area and is below anyone in the 2025 group. It clearly didn’t impact his stock — the Patriots either didn’t care or felt other aspects within his game were more important. Dart is in the same range as Penix Jr, with Rourke and Howard either side of Nix. Nobody is close to Daniels, who had a perfect passer rating using play-action in his final year at LSU.

Big time throws on play action in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 23
Kyle McCord — 17
Tyler Shough — 11
Will Howard — 9
Shedeur Sanders — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 7
Cam Ward — 5
Seth Henigan — 5
Quinn Ewers — 5
Jalen Milroe — 5
Riley Leonard — 4
Dillon Gabriel — 4
Max Brosmer — 3
Brady Cook — 1

Rourke and Howard scored best when operating play-action. However, Jaxson Dart made considerably more dynamic throws after play-fakes.

With virtually ever data point we’ve brought up so far, Dart has been the one who consistently stands out. Again, this might explain some of the chatter that has Dart challenging Sanders to be QB2 in the media (Todd McShay, who is very connected, has been making this point recently). The statistics we’ve shown so far also paint a case for Kyle McCord, another player some sections of the media rate higher than I do.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (BTT’s on play action)

Jaxson Dart — 23
Michael Penix Jr — 18
Kyle McCord — 17
Tyler Shough — 11
Will Howard — 9
Drake Maye — 7
JJ McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 7
Shedeur Sanders — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 7
Cam Ward — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Jayden Daniels — 5
Spencer Rattler — 4

Dart blows the competition out of the water here too. Plus, despite Daniels’ perfect passer rating, he didn’t make many big plays downfield off play-action. There is one thing to think about though…

Screen passes thrown in 2024

Jaxson Dart — 55
Riley Leonard — 51
Shedeur Sanders — 39
Cam Ward — 32
Seth Henigan — 27
Max Brosmer — 25
Jalen Milroe — 24
Dillon Gabriel — 22
Brady Cook — 22
Quinn Ewers — 19
Tyler Shough — 18
Kurtis Rourke — 17
Will Howard — 15
Kyle McCord — 15

This is the issue with the Ole Miss offense and another side of the Dart debate. The system utilises a lot of high percentage throws and it can be schematically challenging for a defense to handle the efficiency of the high-percentage stuff combined with the explosive, challenging nature of the shots taken off it.

Dart throwing 40 more screens than Will Howard, despite Ohio State playing three more games, is really something.

I don’t know if this specifically undermines any of the good stats. For example, are they running a ton of screens off play-action, then faking to deep shots, creating a triple-threat? Does that open up shots downfield? Are teams constantly looking for the threat of a screen and cheating up? It feels like something to note — although further data is required to determine whether we can say the scheme is inflating Dart’s numbers.

Sacks created by the quarterback in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 17
Quinn Ewers — 14
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kyle McCord — 8
Max Brosmer — 8
Jaxson Dart — 7
Seth Henigan — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Brady Cook — 7
Will Howard — 6
Riley Leonard — 5
Tyler Shough — 4
Cam Ward — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1

Pressures created by quarterback in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 44
Kyle McCord — 29
Tyler Shough — 27
Quinn Ewers — 26
Seth Henigan — 25
Cam Ward — 21
Riley Leonard — 21
Brady Cook — 19
Dillon Gabriel — 18
Jaxson Dart — 15
Jalen Milroe — 15
Max Brosmer — 12
Will Howard — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 6

Percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 26.2
Quinn Ewers — 23.6
Brady Cook — 23.5
Seth Henigan — 22.1
Tyler Shough — 21.3
Kyle McCord — 21.2
Cam Ward — 18.9
Dillon Gabriel — 18.8
Riley Leonard — 16.7
Jalen Milroe — 15.6
Jaxson Dart — 12.3
Will Howard — 11.5
Max Brosmer — 11
Kurtis Rourke — 9.1

This is one of the reasons why the NFL will have mixed views about Shedeur Sanders. He creates his own problems despite having the best time to throw mark of the 2024 quarterbacks. In the BIG-12 and PAC-12 you can get away with it. The NFL won’t be as forgiving. He must do a better job playing within structure.

Again, Ewers isn’t far behind. You can perhaps justify some of it given he had the third worst time to throw of the quarterbacks. Did he start to feel pressure that wasn’t there? Did his lack of mobility due to the injuries cause a problem?

These aren’t easy questions to answer. Essentially, you are left facing this reality with Ewers. Most of the 2024 data sucks, so how much do you believe in his arm talent and release, plus your system and coaching staff, to grow his play and develop him? The talent is there. Everyone has been anticipating his arrival in the NFL since High School. Yet he didn’t finish his college career as expected, mainly due to more injuries, and now your grade on him will need to reflect how you feel about your ability to develop him and harness his talent and keep him healthy. Some teams are going to say ‘no thanks’. We’ll see how early the others will say, ‘let’s roll the dice’.

When we get to QBR scores, you’ll see that prior to Ewers’ injuries in 2024 he played very well. Towards the end of the season, when healthier, he rapidly improved his performance level. So this could all come down to health.

Ward creating a reasonable amount of pressures on his own but taking only two self-inflicted sacks speaks to his elusiveness. However, he too will need to do a better job not creating problems for himself (specifically drifting backwards and scrambling unnecessarily).

Rourke did a good job getting the ball out quickly at Indiana and the scheme helped. It’s another really good piece of data for Dart. The numbers here reflect well on Will Howard and Max Brosmer too.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (sacks responsible for)

Shedeur Sanders — 17
Caleb Williams — 15
Quinn Ewers — 14
Spencer Rattler — 12
Drake Maye — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kyle McCord — 8
Jayden Daniels — 7
Jaxson Dart — 7
Dillon Gabriel — 7
Will Howard — 6
Michael Penix Jr — 5
Riley Leonard — 5
Tyler Shough — 4
JJ McCarthy — 4
Bo Nix — 4
Cam Ward — 2
Kurtis Rourke — 1

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (pressures responsible for)

Shedeur Sanders — 44
Caleb Williams — 39
Drake Maye — 30
Kyle McCord — 29
Michael Penix Jr — 27
Tyler Shough — 27
Quinn Ewers — 26
Spencer Rattler — 22
Cam Ward — 21
Riley Leonard — 21
Bo Nix — 18
Dillon Gabriel — 18
Jayden Daniels — 16
Jaxson Dart — 15
Jalen Milroe — 15
JJ McCarthy — 13
Will Howard — 12
Kurtis Rourke — 6

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (Percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure allowed)

Caleb Williams — 30%
Bo Nix — 28.6%
Shedeur Sanders — 26.2
Drake Maye — 25.6%
Quinn Ewers — 23.6
Michael Penix Jr — 21.4%
Tyler Shough — 21.3
Kyle McCord — 21.2
Cam Ward — 18.9
Dillon Gabriel — 18.8
Jayden Daniels — 18.6%
Riley Leonard — 16.7
Jalen Milroe — 15.6
Spencer Rattler — 13.5%
JJ McCarthy — 13.4%
Jaxson Dart — 12.3
Will Howard — 11.5
Kurtis Rourke — 9.1

It really is something that Sanders created more sacks and pressures for himself than prolific ‘make life difficult’ artist Caleb Williams. Even so, it didn’t stop the Bears taking Williams first overall. The key thing to remember here is that Sanders doesn’t possess anywhere near Williams’ physical gifts.

I was surprised to see Nix and Penix Jr so high on the list of percentage of drop-backs with some responsibility for pressure allowed. Daniels and Maye naturally scrambled a lot. Even Cam Ward’s 18.9% looks really favourable compared to this list. The sack-percentage sis another good mark for Dart, who has a better rate than any of the 2024 class, as does Will Howard.

Time to throw in 2024

Shedeur Sanders — 3.00
Cam Ward — 2.93
Tyler Shough — 2.93
Jalen Milroe — 2.88
Seth Henigan — 2.84
Riley Leonard — 2.82
Dillon Gabriel — 2.79
Jaxson Dart — 2.78
Max Brosmer — 2.77
Brady Cook — 2.74
Will Howard — 2.66
Quinn Ewers — 2.59
Kurtis Rourke — 2.56
Kyle McCord — 2.41

Despite the general feeling that Sanders has played behind a bad offensive line — he had the most amount of time to throw within the quarterback group. Maybe it’s a coincidence, maybe it’s not, but the two QB’s at the top of this list are the two everyone expects to be drafted early. If you gave some of the other quarterbacks three seconds to throw in the ACC or BIG-12, we might be having a different conversation.

QBR in 2024

Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Brady Cook — 74.0
Quinn Ewers — 71.3
Max Brosmer — 63.4
Seth Henigan — 57.0

If you’re not familiar with the QBR formula, here’s a long explanation on the ESPN website.

As you’ll see below, all of the 2024 quarterbacks taken early scored a 78.8 or above in their final season of college football. There are seven players who achieved at least that in the 2025 class, with Sanders just below.

You can make an argument that whether it’s QBR, strictly EPA or a similar formula created in-house by individual teams, this kind of data is taken seriously by the NFL. As we’ll see in a moment, players scoring well analytically in this area tend to be drafted early. Therefore, the 2025 class having so many strong performers in QBR is probably a positive for this draft class.

This is one of the reasons why I think we’ll see a ‘middle class’ this year with quarterbacks being drafted on day two. I’ve been including Spencer Rattler in all of these lists because as we know, we saw six quarterbacks taken in the top-12 a year ago and then none taken until round five. Rattler lasted well into day three and he was well behind the pace for QBR (65.4)

There may be a reason why some of the 2025 quarterbacks don’t enter the middle class (for example, Dillon Gabriel’s size or Kurtis Rourke’s injury situation) but we also might see the likes of Ewers given the benefit of the doubt, considering his 2023 QBR was a healthier 78.7.

I’m not trying to prop-up Ewers (we’ve discussed the negatives). However, this is what you need to know. In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. In the three games after returning from injury, where he rushed back to face Oklahoma and Georgia, before going to Vanderbilt, his QBR dropped dramatically to a 55.4. He didn’t look right at all. Clearly health had a big impact on his play.

The biggest question mark for his projection to the next level will be his ability to avoid significant injuries. He has shown, when healthy, what he can do. Staying healthy has been the problem though.

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and include his 2023 QBR in the comparisons below, just so we can project a healthier player.

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (QBR)

Jayden Daniels — 95.7
Bo Nix — 91.0
JJ McCarthy — 89.2
Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Michael Penix Jr — 83.4
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Caleb Williams — 82.3
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Drake Maye — 78.8
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Spencer Rattler — 65.4

While nobody scores as highly as Daniels and Nix did, I do think the 2025 class grading comparatively well is a positive sign. I think this is further evidence for anyone wanting to make the case that Cam Ward will be QB1 and Jaxson Dart will be QB2.

Let’s go one year further back…

Comparison to the 2023 draft class (QBR)

Hendon Hooker — 89.4
Cam Ward — 88.0
CJ Stroud — 87.7
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Bryce Young — 83.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Anthony Richardson — 70.6
Will Levis — 60.4

Hooker’s chances of settling into a productive NFL career were hampered by a bad injury towards the end of his final college season. Stroud has performed well while Young started to improve in year two. Richardson and Levis have both struggled. The 2023 quarterback class builds a strong case for paying attention to QBR as a projection tool.

Before we rush off and take the scores as gospel though, let’s look at the 2022 group…

Comparison to the 2022 draft class (QBR)

Cam Ward — 88.0
Dillon Gabriel — 86.5
Kurtis Rourke — 85.7
Jaxson Dart — 84.7
Will Howard — 83.0
Jalen Milroe — 82.8
Kenny Pickett — 81.2
Matt Corral — 80.5
Riley Leonard — 78.9
Quinn Ewers (2023) — 78.7
Bailey Zappe — 78.6
Shedeur Sanders — 78.2
Kyle McCord — 77.0
Sam Howell — 76.1
Tyler Shough — 75.5
Desmond Ridder — 71.9
Malik Willis — 70.0
Brock Purdy — 70.0

Pickett was the only quarterback taken in round one, so perhaps his QBR score played a role in convincing the Steelers to take an ill-advised plunge? We know that Zappe and Howell are limited, yet they scored quite well. Issues off the field prevented Corral from having much of a shot in the NFL.

Although it more or less projects Ridder and Willis correctly, Purdy being at the bottom here — despite having the best career by far — does spoil the legitimacy of the data. Or does it? I’d argue Purdy is a rarity — someone who probably wouldn’t have succeeded working with any other offensive coordinator. He is perfect for Kyle Shanahan.

With Kubiak being a Shanahan disciple, it’s also possible the Seahawks will similarly identify a player who isn’t blowing up the QBR rankings but fits what they need their quarterback to do. I do think it’s a unique situation. Purdy the player was an ideal fit for the 49ers.

It’s further evidence QBR is useful for projection because at the end of the day, Purdy lasted to the final pick in round seven with a weaker score.

The final list I want to show you might be the most telling. Here’s a list of all the players taken between 2021-2024 with a QBR above 80 and where they were drafted:

Jayden Daniels — First round
Bo Nix — First round
JJ McCarthy — First round
Michael Penix Jr — First round
Caleb Williams — First round
Kenny Pickett — First round
CJ Stroud — First round
Bryce Young — First round
Mac Jones — First round
Justin Fields — First round
Zach Wilson — First round
Trevor Lawrence — First round
Kyle Trask — Second round
Hendon Hooker — Third round (injury)
Matt Corral — Third round (character flags)
Ian Book — Fourth round (physical limitations)

That’s 12 first round picks, three day-two picks and an early day three pick.

Again, this doesn’t mean the quarterbacks with a +80 QBR this year (Ward, Gabriel, Rourke, Dart, Howard & Milroe) are destined to be high picks. Yet over the last few drafts, there has been a correlation between QBR and a higher draft placing. Even Ian Book going in the fourth round, as opposed to later on is a sign given his limited physical prowess as a passer.

With others (Leonard, Sanders & McCord) also producing decent scores and Ewers also showing well when he was healthier in 2023, I would imagine we will see a cluster of quarterbacks selected by the end of round four.

If you’re wondering about QBR scores for NFL quarterbacks, here’s the list for 2024. Geno Smith ranked 21st, just above Russell Wilson. He was 14th in 2023.

EPA in 2024

EPA stands for ‘Expected Points Added’ — a statistic that measures performance on each play. It’s a play-by-play metric that takes into account factors like down, distance, and time remaining.

Cam Ward — 103.2
Kyle McCord — 94.1
Dillon Gabriel — 89.7
Shedeur Sanders — 82.8
Jaxson Dart — 78.5
Kurtis Rourke — 62.1
Riley Leonard — 61.2
Jalen Milroe — 60.5
Will Howard — 56.8
Tyler Shough — 53.9
Seth Henigan — 51.9
Brady Cook — 40.9
Max Brosmer — 34.0
Quinn Ewers — 31.4

Several players regressed from the year prior. Ewers’ 2023 EPA was a 78.7 (perhaps again speaking to the impact of injuries in 2024). Milroe dropped from an 83.6, Howard from a 75.3 and Brady Cook fell from a 77.2.

EPA on pass attempts with low leverage plays down-weighted in 2024

This data point reduces the value of plays occurring in situations with low leverage (eg — early in the game with a big lead or deficit), giving less weight to their impact on the overall analysis compared to high-leverage plays where the outcome of the game is more significantly affected.

Kyle McCord — 101.1
Shedeur Sanders — 93.2
Cam Ward — 89.4
Dillon Gabriel — 83.7
Jaxson Dart — 78.9
Kurtis Rourke — 74.0
Will Howard — 64.3
Tyler Shough — 61.1
Seth Henigan — 54.8
Quinn Ewers — 47.0
Jalen Milroe — 43.2
Max Brosmer — 42.4
Brady Cook — 39.5
Riley Leonard — 35.8

Ward drops 13.8 points in the second list, with Sanders gaining 10.4. Leonard drops a sizeable 25.4 points when you reduce the impact of low-value plays from the equation.

This is a strong result for Kyle McCord, especially when you compare it to the 2024 quarterback class…

Comparison to the 2024 draft class (EPA/PASS)

Kyle McCord — 101.1
Bo Nix — 96.1
Shedeur Sanders — 93.2
Jayden Daniels — 92.9
Cam Ward — 89.4
Michael Penix Jr — 84.1
Dillon Gabriel — 83.7
Jaxson Dart — 78.9
Caleb Williams — 75.5
Kurtis Rourke — 74.0
JJ McCarthy — 65.6
Will Howard — 64.3
Tyler Shough — 61.1
Spencer Rattler — 59.0
Drake Maye — 58.9

This would seem quite indicative but it’s also worth noting the EPA/PASS marks for the 2023 class were weak across the board:

Hendon Hooker — 71.9
CJ Stroud — 66.8
Bryce Young — 59.7
Will Levis — 49.9
Anthony Richardson — 24.5

These scores didn’t stop teams drafting these players early, nor has Stroud’s score stopped him enjoying a good start to his pro-career. I would imagine those focusing on analytics will be quite strong on McCord as the process develops.

Random stats & notes

I’ve not been able to run through all the quarterbacks here and find standout statistics for each. I do have some info that I researched when discussing the fit of Howard, Leonard and Ewers in Seattle, plus I have a few notes on Dart, that I wanted to share…

Will Howard

— His QBR average in the four playoff games was a near perfect 96.4, while his NFL passer rating was 126.8. When the games mattered the most, Howard delivered. This has to matter to teams. Ohio State also had exactly 50% conversions on third downs in the playoffs — with their quarterback completing some excellent passes on money downs.

— For all the talk of Howard benefitting from Ohio State’s loaded roster as they won the National Championship, it’s also worth noting that he led Kansas State to the BIG-12 title in 2022. The Wildcats have only won a conference Championship three times since the turn of the century.

— Against the blitz in 2024, Howard had a completion percentage of 75.2% — throwing 15 touchdowns and just one interception. So while he might’ve struggled generally under pressure, he ate up the blitz. This perhaps speaks to his experience (50 career games).

Riley Leonard

— His QBR average in Notre Dame’s four playoff games was a decent 76.7. It’s not the same standard as Howard’s performance — yet the Irish were not expected to beat Georgia or Penn State. They did — and his QBR in those two games, plus the Ohio State finale, was a 79.8. It’s impressive.

— Leonard is a potential difference maker as a runner. For example, he had 25 runs of +10 yards in 2024. In comparison, Jalen Milroe had 30. Leonard also had 551 yards after contact (Milroe 433), 42 missed tackles forced (Milroe 32) and 17 rushing touchdowns (Milroe 20). He’s not just a mobile quarterback — he possesses legit talent as a runner and that can be utilised at the next level.

Quinn Ewers

— His QBR average in Texas’ three playoff games was an impressive 82.7.

— In the three games before he suffered an abdominal injury, Ewers’ QBR was an 85.4. In the final five games of the season when healthier, he recovered his QBR to 79.7. This is why I’m kind of willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his overall 2024 QBR — it was clearly impacted by playing through the two injuries.

Jaxson Dart

— If you want even more evidence as to why Dart might be rated highly, aside from his high number of big time throws, low turnover worthy passes, ability to handle pressure and QBR — he’s also a productive runner. He had 28 runs of +10 yards — three more than Leonard and two fewer than Milroe. He recorded 312 yards after contact as a ball-carrier and he forced 22 missed tackles.

Final thoughts

I can understand why there are mixed opinions about this class. No one player stands out above the rest physically. I’m convinced the teams picking in the top-10 would rather not take a quarterback. If the likes of the Browns, Giants, Raiders and Jets can acquire a veteran option I think they will. Some will be inclined to wait until day two to select a rookie.

The data shows why the likes of Will Howard, Quinn Ewers and Riley Leonard might not have teams like Seattle rushing to call the pick in. I’m relaxing my position that the Seahawks might take one of them in round two and think they are more likely to wait and see what’s available in round three at pick #82.

In that round, it’s easier to make a case to take Howard for his play-action ability and prolific playoff run at Ohio State. You can build an argument for taking a lower-risk gamble on Ewers’ ability to stay healthy — with development the motivation behind the pick rather than guaranteed ascension. This could be a good opportunity to land someone with clear natural talent who otherwise wouldn’t last to round three, letting him sit and develop while you create a better environment to keep him healthy (aka, building a good offensive line). That would be ‘chasing an edge’ as Mike Macdonald would put it. Leonard’s athleticism and developmental potential also becomes more enamouring in round three.

Kurtis Rourke could be a good scheme fit and worthy of a priority free agent shot, given his injury status. I will spend more time this week reviewing Kyle McCord, although my initial review was that I just can’t see him as a next-level starter.

However, putting this article together tells me it’s time to take Jaxson Dart more seriously — even if it’s just in terms of projecting where he’ll be drafted.

The information in this article was eye-opening. It has to be balanced off with the fact he had an opportunity to drive Ole Miss into the playoffs and blew it against Florida, throwing two interceptions on potential game-winning drives (with a third pick called back). This is the same Florida team that Texas hammered 49-17 two weeks earlier, with Quinn Ewers throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions and recording a 92.7 QBR.

Ole Miss had a lot of talent in 2024. Howard, Leonard and Ewers did more to drive their teams into and through the playoffs.

Nevertheless, Jayden Daniels only led LSU to a 10-3 season in his final year in college. He had Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr to throw to. Funnily enough, one of LSU’s three losses was a shoot-out 55-49 defeat to Ole Miss with both Daniels and Dart scoring five touchdowns. Therefore, I don’t think we should overreact too much to college records and results. Bo Nix couldn’t beat Washington either and Drake Maye’s North Carolina lost 10 games in his two years as a starter.

Dart has a lot of persuasive data working in his favour. He might, after all, be a player to keep an eye on — not just for the Seahawks but also as someone who will go earlier than I previously thought.

I do think there are quarterbacks in this draft who can be a Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy if they go to the right team, system and offensive leader. You might scoff at that suggestion, given both players have been to three combined Super Bowls (winning one). Let’s not forget that prior to his Senior Bowl and combine, Hurts was seen as a fourth round type with little prospect of starting in the NFL. Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant in his draft.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that one or more of these quarterbacks will go to the right home and eventually start and succeed with a good supporting cast. They’re not going to be franchise-changers like Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels but this isn’t a useless class either, devoid of upside. Several have excellent character backgrounds and leadership qualities too.

My hope for the Seahawks is they can identify one or more who fit the Klint Kubiak offense and bring them in. I think they will achieve this and I still believe this will be the year where the Seahawks draft a quarterback.

This article, plus the two others in the series on offensive and defensive linemen, can be found in the ‘key articles’ tab in the site menu

Yesterday I went into into the offensive line data and tomorrow I’ll focus on the quarterbacks. Today it’s the turn of the defensive linemen…

I think the Seahawks are far more likely to make a significant D-line addition in the draft, rather than in the free agent market. However, it’s worth looking at what’s out there and having the data to hand ahead of free agency.

Pass rush win percentages (free agency)

EDGE

Baron Browning — 16.4%
Khalil Mack — 14.5%
Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
K’Lavon Chaisson — 12.8%
Anthony Nelson — 11.5%
Dante Fowler Jr — 10.1%
Carl Lawson — 9.4%
Joseph Ossai — 9.3%
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka — 8.9%
Azeez Ojulari — 8.4%
Haason Reddick — 7.6%
Patrick Jones — 6.7%
Matt Judon — 6.2%
Emmanuel Ogbah — 5.4%

Inside/out

Milton Williams — 17.6%
Osa Odighizuwa — 15.1%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%
LJ Collier — 7.8%

Defensive tackle

Teair Tart — 11.4%
Calais Campbell — 10.8%
Javon Kinlaw — 10.5%
BJ Hill — 8.4%
Poona Ford — 7.7%
DJ Jones — 6.9%
Bobby Brown III — 4.1%

As you can see, this isn’t a loaded group. Milton Williams will get a big pay-day. He has a terrific win percentage, he’s at a great age (25) and a strong Super Bowl performance will help his cause. Osa Odighizuwa could also get a handsome contract. Both players excelled in terms of pressures forced (Odighizuwa 60, Williams 54) ranking 24th and 35th respectively among all defensive linemen (EDGE, DE or DT).

In terms of win-percentage, there’s no impact edge rusher or game-changing defensive tackle (and you wouldn’t expect there to be — those players rarely reach free agency). The one player who might interest some teams is Chase Young. He’s had a strange career, blighted by injuries and concerns about his effort/attitude. The feeling was Washington couldn’t wait to move on and the 49ers didn’t re-sign him either.

He had a seven-sack season for the Saints with a strong 66 pressures (joint most among free agents with Josh Sweat). His win-percentage of 13.7% is decent, not great. He’s only 25 though and Trey Hendrickson was a bit of a late bloomer — turning it on in his final season in New Orleans with 13.5 sacks. Henderson’s win-percentage was only 12.1% and he had 50 pressures. Young still has a chance to realise his potential but I’m not convinced it’ll be in Seattle.

For comparisons sake, Myles Garrett had a 2024 win-percentage of 23.1%, Micah Parsons’ was 20.2%, Hendrickson and Nick Bosa were at 20%, Jared Verse (19.7%) and Chop Robinson (18.8%) were both high-impact rookies and Chris Jones (18.8%) had another productive year.

The Seahawks do not currently have a player of this caliber on their line, as you can see from their win-percentage scores:

Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Leonard Williams — 11.6%
Boye Mafe — 11%
Jarran Reed — 10.7%
Byron Murphy — 10%
Derick Hall — 8.5%

This will probably not change through free agency — but it’s why they need to be mindful of any big trade opportunities that might emerge. If they can acquire a star, they should try to make that happen. Adding an elite pass-rusher should turn this unit into one of the best in the NFL.

Mafe and Hall contributed 47 and 45 pressures respectively in 2024. Williams generated 55, Reed 48 and Jones 45. The Seahawks spread their pressures out, which might be a theme under Mike Macdonald. They ranked seventh for pressures, so I’d suggest two things:

1. Acquiring an expensive defensive lineman at this stage should only be limited to a truly elite player, such as a big splash for a Garrett/Parsons/Crosby type if made available, not for someone who can simply operate within a system that clearly does a good job sharing the wealth.

2. There’s nothing wrong with adding a value veteran if the market comes to you but in terms of pass-rush and pressuring opponents — they might be better off waiting until the second round of the draft. As we’ll discuss later, pick #50 is in a sweet-spot for D-liners.

It’s interesting that Dre’Mont Jones’ pass-rush production is similar to a lot of the alternatives on the market. His win-percentage also led the Seahawks in 2024, above even Leonard Williams.

Pressure comparisons

Milton Williams — 54
Khalil Mack — 52
Levi Onwuzurike — 47
Dre’Mont Jones — 45
Dayo Odeyingbo — 42

Win-percentage comparisons

Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%

This might mean the Seahawks can flip him for a pick (it won’t be much) rather than outright cutting him. Or, they might decide that it’s better to try and get him to take a pay-cut rather than absorb a $14m dead-hit to let him play somewhere else. This is easily achievable according to Curtis Allen, because none of his $16m salary this year is guaranteed.

That said, John Schneider’s answer last week on Seattle Sports about the danger of ‘paying for the wrong players’ might’ve been a reference to Jones, who has underwhelmed as a big free agent signing. It’ll be an expensive parting if they outright move on, with an $11.6m saving alongside the $14m dead-cap hit.

Run defense

Mike Macdonald often speaks about creating a run-wall. The Seahawks ranked 16th in opponent rushing yards per game in 2024 but in their final three games they ranked sixth. It did feel as if they made a turn during the season, once they’d swapped out their linebackers.

Bringing back Ernest Jones is necessary to maintain their performance but they can also improve on the defensive line.

Leonard Williams (10.7%), Byron Murphy (7.6%) and Jarran Reed (7.5%) all have solid percentages for plays they are responsible for stopping the run. Dre’Mont Jones (4.1%) struggled in this area and Johnathan Hankins (7.1%) was OK — but you’d expect more from a pure run-stuffer like Hankins.

There are four key interior players they could add to upgrade their run defense. Calais Campbell led the NFL with a remarkable 15.9% run-stop responsibility percentage in 2024. That he’s still performing at this level at 38-years-old is highly impressive. It’s a crushing disappointment that he’ll likely never play in Seattle, possibly due to a preference not to play for another NFC West team. He would be a great signing for Seattle’s run-D though and if there’s any chance at all of prolonging his career one more year, they should ask the question.

30-year-old DJ Jones doesn’t have the typical tools of a quality run defender due to his short arms but his lack of height enables him to win with leverage to the tune of an 11.3% run-stop responsibility percentage. Another former 49er — Sebastian Joseph-Day — had a 10.4% mark in 2024, with BJ Hill at 9.3%. These are the best options to elevate Seattle’s run defense from the interior.

None of the inside/out rushers excelled here. However, Minnesota’s edge rusher Patrick Jones had an incredibly impressive 13.8% run-stop responsibility percentage.

Pass rush win percentages (draft)

EDGE

Josaiah Stewart — 27.1%
Princely Umanmielen — 22.8%
James Pearce — 22.7%
Abdul Carter — 22.6%
Bradyn Swinson — 22.1%
David Walker — 21%
Ashton Gillotte — 20.9%
Mike Green — 20.1%
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 18.2%
Kaimon Rucker — 18.1%
Jack Sawyer — 17.7%
Nic Scourton — 17.4%
Jalon Walker — 17.2%
Barryn Sorrell — 13.6%
Kyle Kennard — 13.1%
JT Tuimoloau — 12.3%
Landon Jackson — 11.5%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 10.5%
Davin Vann — 10.1%

Inside/Out

Aeneas Peebles — 17.7%
Jared Ivey — 16.8%
Jordan Burch — 15.7%
Sai’vion Jones — 15.1%
Darius Alexander — 12.8%
Shemar Stewart — 12.4%
Mykel Williams — 11%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 7.2%

Defensive tackle

Omarr Norman-Lott — 18.9%
Derrick Harmon — 17.6%
Rylie Mills — 14.3%
Mason Graham — 13.8%
TJ Sanders — 12.6%
Walter Nolen — 10.9%
Jordan Phillips — 10.5%
Ty Robinson — 10.4%
Deone Walker — 10.3%
Jamaree Caldwell — 9.6%
Joshua Farmer — 9.4%
Kenneth Grant — 9.4%
JJ Pegues — 9.3%
Alfred Collins — 7.3%
Junior Tafuna — 7.3%
Tyleik Williams — 7%
Cam Jackson — 6.8%
Shemar Turner — 6.2%
Yahya Black — 5.8%
Ty Hamilton — 4.9%

Pressures (draft)

EDGE

Abdul Carter — 66
Jack Sawyer — 64
Bradyn Swinson — 60
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 60
Mike Green — 59
Ashton Gillotte — 57
Princely Umanmielen — 55
James Pearce — 55
David Walker — 55
JT Tuimoloau — 51
Barryn Sorrell — 49
Kyle Kennard — 39
Josaiah Stewart — 37 (missed time)
Nic Scourton — 36
Landon Jackson — 35
Jalon Walker — 34 (hybrid)
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 33
Kaimon Rucker — 31 (missed time)
Davin Vann — 26

Inside/Out

Sai’vion Jones — 43
Jared Ivey — 40
Shemar Stewart — 39
Darius Alexander — 37
Aeneas Peebles — 37
Jordan Burch — 32
Mykel Williams — 26 (missed time)
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 19

Defensive tackle

Derrick Harmon — 55
Ty Robinson — 42
Walter Nolen — 35
Mason Graham — 34
Rylie Mills — 34
TJ Sanders — 33
JJ Pegues — 31
Kenneth Grant — 27
Omarr Norman-Lott — 27
Joshua Farmer — 26
Jamaree Caldwell — 25
Deone Walker — 22
Tyleik Williams — 21
Shemar Turner — 21
Ty Hamilton — 19
Alfred Collins — 18
Cam Jackson — 16
Jordan Phillips — 16
Yahya Black — 13
Junior Tafuna — 13

LSU edge rusher Bradyn Swinson is being massively slept on. His 60 pressures in 2024 were second only to Abdul Carter (66) and Jack Sawyer (64). It’s worth noting that nobody had more pressures in the college football season. An incredible 21 of Sawyer’s pressures came in his four extra playoff games. He had 43 in the regular season. Carter recorded 10 pressures in two playoff games. In the regular season, he had 56 pressures. This really highlights just how productive Swinson was in 2024.

Jared Verse had only two more pressures (62) in his final year at Florida State, while TJ Watt and Maxx Crosby both had 57 in their last seasons of college football.

Boye Mafe had 42 pressures before entering the draft and a win-percentage of 15.8%. Derick Hall had 47 pressures and a win-percentage of 14%.

Swinson’s win-percentage of 22.1% is only 0.5% lower than Abdul Carter’s. I don’t think there’s a drop-off between the LSU rusher and the Green/Pearce/Ezeiruaku grouping. He’s so quick off the edge and once he bends the arc, his closing speed is frightening. He’s long and has shown the ability to keep his frame clean on contact and win with power. His effort and motor are impressive and he has the kind of character and personality that hints at star quality. Of all the edge rushers expected to be in range for the Seahawks, Swinson might be the one I’m most intrigued by. Testing is critical but at the moment he looks like a strong option at #50 to add an EDGE with a bit more juice than they currently have.

Then there’s his team-mate Sai’vion Jones. Difference-making inside/out rushers can be a game-changer. Among all of the players capable of playing inside/out, Jones has the most pressures (43). He’s a three-sport athlete (basketball, track & field, football) with great size (6-6, 280lbs) and good length (33.5 inch arms). He’s expected to run an estimated 4.70 forty. He has a lot of potential — with four more pressures than Shemar Stewart and an edge in win-percentage (15.1%
vs 12.4%). He also scores higher defending the run (more on that in a bit). Jones might be a better second round option than the likes of Stewart are in round one.

Josaiah Stewart’s pass-rush win percentage of 27.1%
clearly stands out. He’s one to monitor, given how beloved he is by Wink Martindale at Michigan (Mike Macdonald is a protege of Martindale’s). Injury limited his number of pressures collected but he wrecked the game against USC and flashed when he was on the field. Again, testing will be important given his lack of ideal height and length.

At defensive tackle, Ty Robinson (who I interviewed recently) had the second most pressures (42) at his position plus the second most sacks among defensive tackles in college football (seven). He has the aggressive playing style, quickness, relentless motor and driven attitude to be an excellent pro. I’m intrigued to see how quick (10-yard split) and explosive (vertical broad) he is and whether he runs a short shuttle at the combine.

Darius Alexander’s numbers are solid across the board. He stood out at the Senior Bowl and showed in flashes on tape at Toledo. It’s not an overreaction to say he gives off a ‘Chris Jones’ vibe. The chances are he won’t be Jones but seeing him beat Josh Conerly Jr off the edge at his favoured spot of left tackle was a sight to behold at 304lbs. Let’s see how he tests. Jones’ win-percentage (16.7%) and pressure numbers (49) in his final season at Mississippi State are far better than Alexander’s (12.8% and 37). Plus he came up against superior competition in the SEC. Alexander might not have elite potential but he has disruptive qualities.

Derrick Harmon and Omar Norman-Lott have terrific win-percentages as pass-rushers. However, their run-stopping responsibility (which we’ll talk about next) is comparatively very low. Teams will need to work out whether they are mostly one-dimensional role players, whether they can round into something more complete or whether the pass-rush production even translates to the NFL. Neither has a prototypical frame.

Rylie Mills is a dynamic athlete and he ramped up his production in 2024. He picked up an injury and missed most of Notre Dame’s playoff run. We’ll see if he’s healthy for the combine. If he is and he tests — he’ll be a name to remember who could rise.  Having the third best win-percentage (14.3%) among defensive tackles certainly helps.

Aeneas Peebles’ 17.7% win percentage as an inside/out rusher is very appealing and he flashed at the Senior Bowl. However, he lacks length (6-0, 31 3/4 inch arms) for a player who is 289lbs. That could impact his stock.

Run stop percentage (responsible for the stop)

EDGE

Donovan Ezeiruaku — 10.1%
James Pearce — 10.1%
Mike Green — 9.4%
Landon Jackson — 9.3%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 9.3%
David Walker — 9.2%
Jalon Walker — 8.7%
Princely Umanmielen — 8.6%
Kaimon Rucker — 8.5%
Josaiah Stewart — 8.3%
JT Tuimoloau — 7.8%
Abdul Carter — 7.6%
Nic Scourton — 7.3%
Ashton Gillotte — 6.9%
Bradyn Swinson — 5.8%
Davin Vann — 5.4%
Jack Sawyer — 5.1%
Barryn Sorrell — 5.1%
Kyle Kennard — 3.8%

Inside/out

Darius Alexander — 7.9%
Sai’vion Jones — 7.7%
Mykel Williams — 7.6%
Jared Ivey — 6.6%
Aeneas Peebles — 6.3%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 6.1%
Shemar Stewart — 5.5%
Jordan Burch — 2.9%

Defensive tackle

Mason Graham — 12%
Walter Nolen — 11.9%
Yahya Black — 9.3%
Cam Jackson — 9.3%
JJ Pegues — 8.9%
TJ Sanders — 8.8%
Ty Hamilton — 8.3%
Ty Robinson — 8.1%
Junior Tafuna — 8.1%
Shemar Turner — 7.9%
Kenneth Grant — 7.9%
Tyleik Williams — 7.8%
Jordan Phillips — 7.6%
Jamaree Caldwell — 7.5%
Alfred Collins — 7.4%
Derrick Harmon — 7.1%
Deone Walker — 6.6%
Omarr Norman-Lott — 6%
Rylie Mills — 5.3%
Joshua Farmer — 4.6%

Keep an eye on Donovan Ezeiruaku. On tape he has a better edge-rushing skill-set than most of the other big names. His run-defense responsibility of 10.1% was joint best along with (surprisingly) James Pearce at Tennessee. Testing will be key for him but he has a rounded game, long arms and he’s incredibly consistent. He might not be the Seahawks’ pick at #18 but he could go ahead of some of these other pass rushers. You can get him on the field in year one.

For those interested in Kenneth Grant, it’s worth noting that another big-bodied athlete in JJ Pegues has an almost identical pass-rush win-percentage (0.1% difference), he has more pressures (31 vs 27) and his run-stop responsibility percentage is considerably higher (8.9% vs 7.9%). Grant’s testing might blow Pegues out of the water at the combine, showing off his upside and developmental potential. There’s certainly enough buzz from draft media’s ‘in-the-know’ group to think Grant could be a very high pick once he tests at the combine.

I think his numbers as a pass-rusher and run-blocker, particularly playing next to Mason Graham, are underwhelming. He’s a great athlete at his size, yes, but you were always left wanting more on tape. I’m not sure how much to read into that but I did think there were snaps on tape where he could play with more violence. The athleticism and get-off are freaky but I wanted to see him play with a bit more aggression.

Lance Zierlein has Walter Nolen graded as the fifth best player in the draft currently on NFL.com. We know he’s quick and can rush the passer but his run-stop responsibility percentage is second best in the class at 11.9% — just 0.1% behind Mason Graham. He’s well ahead of the big nose tackles. This might be why he ends up going a fair bit higher than people realise. He clearly has a rounded game. Based on the tape, I’d suggest he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.

Final thoughts

Yesterday I noted how the Seahawks might be banking on a good offensive lineman lasting to #18. A challenging free agency market might leave the Seahawks relying on a top rookie to inject talent into their O-line.

At #50, this draft class is tailor-made to go D-line in round two. This is a really good area to target a defensive lineman. The following players are projected to slot into this part of the draft:

Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Joshua Farmer (DT, Florida State)
Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)
Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)

Others could be available in this range, with players rising and falling after the combine. After further studying the makeup of this class for these articles, I think you can make a compelling argument that the Seahawks will be minded to go O-line in round one and D-line in round two.

Who might they be particularly attracted to at #50? Pre-combine, which will have a big impact on this projection, my guess would be:

Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)

As you can see though, there are a lot of good options here.

Remember, a third of John Schneider’s drafts in Seattle have seen the Seahawks take linemen with the first two picks. I think we could see that again this year.

It could set things up to take a shot on a quarterback in round three. That’ll be the focus of tomorrow’s article.

Tomorrow I’m going to delve into the defensive line data and on Wednesday it’ll be quarterbacks. Today it’s the turn of the offensive linemen…

Zone blocking free agents

I wanted to identify the best possible scheme fits within the free agent class. However, just looking at zone blocking data for the 2024 season can be deceptive. For example, Evan Neal of the Giants had a 90 grade in zone. He only had 78 zone snaps though. Therefore, I calculated a two-year average in zone for every free agent.

Only eight interior line free agents had a grade above 70:

Drew Dalman — 86.6 (454 snaps)
James Daniels — 79.6 (275 snaps)
Ben Bartch — 79.5 (57 snaps)
Trey Smith — 79.3 (482 snaps)
Kevin Zeitler — 79.2 (462 snaps)
Teven Jenkins — 78.1 (284 snaps)
Will Fries — 76.4 (349 snaps)
Coleman Shelton — 73.0 (309 snaps)

Mekhi Becton (67.3) and Ryan Kelly (66.6) were just on the outside. In case you are wondering, here are the five worst graders in zone:

Daniel Brunskill — 56.4
Ben Bredeson — 54.8
Brandon Scherff — 54.0
Josh Myers — 50.7
Jedrick Wills Jr — 50.4

It’s also possible Garrett Bradbury (74.4) and Trey Pipkins (70.3) could be cap casualties. If the Chiefs were willing to part with Joe Thuney via trade — an unlikely scenario, admittedly — his average grade was a 73.0.

Takeaways

It’s not exactly breaking news but by far the most impactful players the Seahawks could sign in free agency to improve their offensive line are Drew Dalman, Trey Smith and Kevin Zeitler. They all have +400 zone snaps in the last two seasons and have excelled in the scheme.

If only it were as simple as signing a couple of these guys, eh?

Sadly they are likely to be three highly coveted targets, or in the case of Zeitler he might be unprepared at the age of 35 to move to the west coast after a career on the east.

Drew Dalman is the ideal signing in terms of need, scheme fit and age (26). If the Seahawks go all-in on anyone, it probably should be him. With this being such an incredibly thin center class in the draft, most of the league might be interested in Dalman.

The Seahawks would have to pull out all of the stops to acquire him — both financially and in terms of selling the vision of moving to Seattle. This will be extremely difficult. Many expect the 49ers to pursue Dalman. He grew up in California and went to Stanford. You might not be able to compete with geography.

It would be a blow to see him join a division rival, especially if he continues his upward trajectory in his career. I think they have to be prepared to gamble a bit on cost because the fit is so good. Klint Kubiak’s suggestion that they need an elite center for the system to excel underpins the need to be aggressive here. Dalman is a top-five graded center — not just in zone. We’ll see if they can make it happen.

There is something else to note with Dalman. When John Schneider talks about doing a better job identifying and developing players, here is a classic example. Dalman’s overall blocking grade in his final year at Stanford was an 86.9. His grade in zone was a 91.2. He ran a 4.51 short shuttle, which for a center is typically indicative of strong upside potential. Dalman was always going to last to the round four range (it’s where I had him graded on my 2021 horizontal board) due to a lack of size (299lbs) and length (32 inch arms). Yet he had big hands (10.5 inches) — another indicator for future success at his position.

Dalman didn’t start a single game as a rookie, before taking over the job in year two. The Seahawks aren’t alone in this by any stretch — but they haven’t done a good enough job noting who has ‘the right stuff’ to be a potential hit in the kind of range Dalman was taken. He ticked a lot of boxes for a good starting center.

Of course, this was the 2021 draft that the Seahawks pretty much wrote-off because of Covid. They took Dee Eskridge instead of Creed Humphrey. They had only three draft picks after the nonsensical Jamal Adams trade, effectively taking them out of a class that included, aside from Humphrey, Landon Dickerson, Alim McNeill, Milton Williams, Osa Odighizuwa, Quinn Meinerz, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey Smith, Ernest Jones, Chubba Hubbard, Dalman and others. There’s no hindsight thinking here either — I interviewed McNeill, Williams and Meinerz pre-draft (among others) because we rated them highly.

When the Seahawks did take a shot on a center — Olu Oluwatimi in 2023 — his grading was good (80.4 overall, 74.1 in zone, 80.0 in gap) but not close to Dalman’s level. His testing results (4.68 short shuttle) were also far weaker and he has tiny hands (8 5/8 inches). This is a very different profile, one that doesn’t suggest ‘future top center potential’.

There isn’t a single player in the 2024 draft with similar grades to Dalman. We’ll see if anyone can measure up physically in terms of testing. Ultimately, the Seahawks might be best signing a proven player (Kelly) for the next two years and kicking the can down the road, if they can’t sign Dalman. Or they could try to convert a day three prospect (Clay Webb, Connor Colby, Luke Kandra) behind the experienced starter. A better plan is needed here, though, than annually just signing a cheap one-year band-aid.

Trey Smith is going to re-set the guard market and maybe get close to receiver-level money. The teams with major cap space are likely to be the big players for his services, or he might just stay in Kansas City.

Kevin Zeitler played in Detroit for $6m in 2024. What a bargain. If he continues playing, he might just stay with the Lions.

I’m not sure there’s anyone else who can provoke immediate change. It won’t be a surprise if the Bears — boosted by the fact their quarterback is on a rookie contract and clearly in an aggressive mood having appointed Ben Johnson — pull out all the stops to land Dalman and Smith to make a statement. This is the kind of power-play that would elevate the Seahawks in a big way but it just seems absolutely fanciful (and might be for the Bears too).

So what can they do?

Ryan Kelly is a reasonable short-term fallback option for Dalman even if his age and grade are not ideal. Keep an eye on Coleman Shelton as another alternative.

Teven Jenkins could be an option but it depends on his market. If he gets a Damien Lewis level salary, forget about it. He’s too inconsistent. If he’s available on a cheaper prove-it deal, he could interest Seattle.

As discussed last week, San Francisco’s Ben Bartch could be a sneaky target. The 49ers have earmarked him to replace Aaron Banks. Can you steal Bartch from them? He’s also 26 and has a ton of potential within this scheme. Unlike Dalman, Bartch is originally from Oregon — so he might be open-minded about coming back to the PNW. He grades well in zone but he’s taken significantly fewer snaps than the other players listed earlier, so there’s an element of the unknown here.

James Daniels would be an option but it’s unclear when he’ll be healthy after suffering a torn achilles. He might remain a free agent deep into the summer when his rehab concludes. Lucas Patrick (67.7 average grade in zone) could be a good draft hedge after playing for Kubiak in New Orleans.

Overall there aren’t a ton of attractive options. You better prepare yourselves, Seahawks fans.

Zone blocking grades for draftable prospects

Because free agency could be a struggle unless they pull off a major coup, I think the Seahawks are banking on a good offensive lineman being available at #18. If they want to inject quality into their O-line this is possibly the only way to do it. The problem is, they already have a very young offensive line. Relying on the draft will be risky. It might place a greater emphasis on signing someone experienced like Ryan Kelly (if Drew Dalman isn’t available).

I can’t list everyone because it’s unfair to publish PFF’s full in-house grades but here are the key linemen who did well in zone and after tape study, I believe would be fits within the system:

Wyatt Milum — 90.3
Armand Membou — 87.5
Jack Nelson — 86.4
Logan Brown — 85.2
Clay Webb — 84.9
Grey Zabel —- 84.8
Kelvin Banks Jr — 81.5
Connor Colby — 81.3
Jared Wilson — 78.9
Luke Kandra — 76.5
Will Campbell — 74.5
Josh Conerly Jr — 73.7
Donovan Jackson — 73.2

I think Tyler Booker can excel operating in outside zone. His grade (65.5) isn’t good but it was worse in gap (63.0). I think his performance overall in 2024 is indicative of a struggling Alabama unit. In 2023, he had a 71.6 grade in zone. I would happily take him at #18 — although I don’t currently think he will last that far in round one.

Here’s how many pressures the group above conceded in 2024:

Donovan Jackson — 19
Will Campbell — 18
Kelvin Banks Jr — 10
Tyler Booker — 10
Connor Colby — 10
Armand Membou — 9
Jack Nelson — 9
Luke Kandra — 8
Grey Zabel — 7
Clay Webb — 7
Wyatt Milum — 6
Jared Wilson — 5

The following players gave up the most pressures within this draft class:

Cameron Williams 26
Emery Jones — 25
Marcus Mbow — 25
Donovan Jackson — 19
Will Campbell — 18
Jonah Savaiinaea — 15
Jake Majors — 15
Aireontae Ersery — 13
Joshua Gray — 12

Here’s how many sacks the targeted zone group conceded:

Will Campbell — 2
Donovan Jackson — 2
Connor Colby — 2
Kelvin Banks Jr — 1
Jack Nelson — 1
Grey Zabel — 1
Clay Webb — 1
Armand Membou — 0
Tyler Booker — 0
Luke Kandra — 0
Wyatt Milum — 0
Jared Wilson — 0

The following players gave up the most sacks within this draft class:

Cameron Williams — 5
Jonah Savaiinaea — 4
Marcus Mbow — 3
Connor Colby — 2
Donovan Jackson — 2
Will Campbell — 2

Takeaways

I think there are some excellent zone blocking options in this draft and not just in the early rounds. As I mentioned, they might be banking on one of Tyler Booker, Armand Membou, Kelvin Banks Jr and possibly Will Campbell or Donovan Jackson being available. All can play guard, all would add cost-effective talent and upside. Three of the players have positional flexibility.

An ideal scenario for them might be for one of Booker, Membou or Banks Jr to be there.

They might then focus their attention on the defensive line in round two. As we’ll detail in tomorrow’s piece, the 50th pick could be a real D-line sweet-spot.

Then, it could be about taking a quarterback in round three. That will be discussed in Wednesday’s article.

In terms of later round guards, Clay Webb excites me. He might’ve played at Jacksonville State but he was a former five-star recruit who originally attended Georgia. He’s an excellent athlete with a strong wrestling background. His tape and Senior Bowl performance jump off the screen in terms of zone blocking. I think he could be a better option to come in and compete to start at left guard than some of the players being touted for rounds one and two.

Connor Colby at Iowa has played 50 games of college football, has consistently helped establish a strong running game (with no support from the Hawkeyes’ passing game) and he’s a top athlete (said to be able to run a 4.47 short shuttle). His tape shows a gritty blocker willing to do everything you need to establish an outside zone attack.

Cincinnati’s Luke Kandra is someone I only studied at the back end of last week but I was quickly sold on his ability to function at a high level in this scheme. Another terrific athlete (projected 4.90 forty), he has an ideal body-type for zone blocking and plays with aggression and mobility — showing he can pull and move around the line and reach up to the second level.

These three players in particular just struck me as what you need to make this scheme work. And really, that’s what this is about isn’t it? For the first time in a while the Seahawks appear to have a clearly defined blocking plan in place. It’s time to draft and develop for the system and put down some roots.

Some of the names I’ve discussed in this piece are tailor-made zone blockers. You have a very experienced offensive line coach in John Benton, who is extremely well versed in this system. It’d be great to hand him top-end talent, via free agency and the draft, but it might not be possible. You might have to try and find solutions. There are solutions, in my opinion, throughout this draft, not just in round one, but I do think they might be banking on taking an offensive lineman with their top pick.

This will feel underwhelming to many — but signing Bartch as a draft hedge and letting the draft come to you, which could mean drafting zone specialists later on, to me isn’t a crazy idea. The Seahawks need to build around a system, not simply draft big names in the early rounds.

The key is finding a center to anchor everything — and it’s why Dalman is such an important target, with Kelly as a legitimate Plan B.

I’d also say that Jack Nelson is tremendously underrated at Wisconsin and could kick inside to guard or act as a swing tackle, Logan Brown is strictly a tackle but could be a useful backup, Grey Zabel is clearly an option but could go earlier than some of the names mentioned above and Jared Wilson is an intriguing center prospect with all the tools you need — he might just need a bit of time to develop. The question is whether he’ll last to a range where the Seahawks feel like taking a chance on a player who might not start in the first year or two. Not having a fourth round selection until the comp picks could be an issue, if Wilson even lasts that far.

Create cap room

Cutting Tyler Lockett ($17m), George Fant ($3.8m) and Roy Robertson-Harris ($6.6m) is necessary to get the team back into the black in terms of effective cap space. You save another $11.6m by cutting Dre’Mont Jones.

Lockett’s contract makes a parting inevitable but all of the other players are replaceable and cost too much for what they are producing.

Restructuring Uchenna Nwosu’s contract can create $9.5m.

These moves will enable the Seahawks to raise funds — but they need more…

Work out a new contract with Geno Smith

It feels inevitable at this point that the two parties will reach a compromise. This is a big lever the Seahawks can pull to create cap space. They can reduce Smith’s cap-hit of $44.5m considerably with an extension, give him more money in 2025 and still retain annual outs for the future to retain flexibility.

Extend DK Metcalf’s contract in the summer

They can do this sooner if needed but given his last extension came in July and they re-organised Leonard Williams’ contract to free up space suggests they’re expecting a slightly longer timescale.

That isn’t an issue. They can use all of the cap space created above in free agency, then a Metcalf extension can lower his cap-hit considerably later in the year. This will reduce his cap hit of $31.9m, giving the Seahawks enough money to do everything they need to do from August — including paying for a practise squad, injured reserve and any additions they want to make during the season.

The structure of Brandon Aiyuk’s extension with the 49ers should suit both the team and player. It guarantees Metcalf around $45-50m but gives the Seahawks a manageable cap-hit for the next couple of years, with potential outs down the line.

Re-sign Ernest Jones & Jarran Reed

It’ll be interesting to see what Jones’ market is. The Rams didn’t want to pay him and ended up trading him to the Titans for a ham sandwich. Then Tennessee moved him to the Seahawks rather than paying him. It worked out in Seattle but it might be that the rest of league won’t make him a big offer.

Jordyn Brooks signed a three-year deal with the Dolphins worth $8.4m per year. Patrick Queen agreed a deal worth $13.6m over three years. It’s difficult to project where Jones falls in the hierarchy of contracts but you would anticipate that one way or another, the Seahawks will get this done.

They should also work to bring back Reed, a genuine leader on the defense who is cost-effective and a great part of their D-line rotation. His last deal was worth $4.5m a year for two seasons. They might be able to reach a similar agreement.

Go and get your center early in free agency

Klint Kubiak made it very clear — the key to a successful zone blocking offensive line is an elite center. The Seahawks need to do what the Atlanta Falcons did in 2016 when they hired Kyle Shanahan and immediately signed Alex Mack. They need to go and land the best center on the market.

That is 26-year-old Drew Dalman. He is worth pushing the boat out for. He’s one of PFF’s top-five highest graded centers, next to the likes of Creed Humphrey and Frank Ragnow. In the last two seasons he’s graded at 82.3 and 90.9 for zone blocking (an 86.6 average — best among all free agent offensive linemen). He’s the ideal player to invest in.

The Seahawks should be prepared to outbid the market, as they did for Dre’Mont Jones in 2023 and Leonard Williams last year. A contract that slots between Humphreys’ $18m a year and Ragnow’s $13.5m a year makes sense.

If they can’t get Dalman, they should pivot to Ryan Kelly. He had a strong zone blocking grade of 75.4 in 2023 and would provide leadership and toughness up front. Longevity might be a concern though given he turns 32 in May. Olu Oluwatimi is an adequate backup if needed.

They don’t have any better alternatives than these two free agents if they want this blocking system to realise its potential.

Sign additional help for the offensive line

It’s not realistic, unfortunately, to expect the Seahawks to go on a massive spending spree. Trey Smith will likely cost too much with too many suitors. Even Mekhi Becton, who will probably be retained by Philadelphia, could get a significant pay-day.

Assuming Christian Haynes is given a new lease of life under Kubiak and John Benton (Haynes’ zone blocking grade at UConn was an impressive 89.2) and if they add a veteran center, they can let the market come to them at left guard, with the intention of also drafting a player down the line.

What’s the market like for Teven Jenkins? His average zone blocking grade over the last two seasons is a 78.1. Will Fries’ average is a 76.4. Could you take on Evan Neal as a reclamation project, similar to Becton in Philadelphia? His zone blocking grade in 2024 was a 90.9 (albeit on 78 snaps). Lucas Patrick from the Saints looks like a good draft hedge, given his experience in the system and 67.7 average grade in zone. There are two potential cap casualties who could interest the Seahawks. Garrett Bradbury (74.4 average) and Trey Pipkins (70.3) could become available.

Is there a dark horse candidate at guard?

Ben Bartch isn’t a household name but he could be a key target. He spent the last two years with San Francisco having previously been a fourth round pick for the Jaguars. When Aaron Banks suffered an injury late in the season, Bartch replaced him at left guard and excelled against Buffalo.

In the limited time he’s had on the field, he recorded a 79.7 zone blocking grade in 2023 and a 79.0 grade in 2024. There’s a feeling the 49ers will try to re-sign him to replace Banks, who is also a free agent.

Bartch knows the system Klint Kubiak will use and he’s shown promise when he’s started, unlike other San Francisco linemen. Stealing him away could provide the Seahawks with a cost-effective starting guard at a good age (26) while spoiling the plans of a division rival.

Are there any big moves they could make at guard?

If the Chiefs want to transfer cap space to Trey Smith, they might be willing to part with Joe Thuney (although I think it’s unlikely). They’d save $16m by dealing him. You would inherit a $15.5m cap-hit. He turns 33 in November so this would only be a short-term move — yet adding Thuney and a good center to your offensive line would give it a real shot in the arm.

The Chiefs won’t give him away so you’d have to come up with a creative package. For example, if you don’t have any interest in giving Tariq Woolen a big extension given his erratic level of performance, maybe you can dangle him as a trade chip? It’d be risky given Woolen’s immense upside but can you trust him to mature and find a level of consistency? I’m not sure.

There are veteran free agent cornerbacks worthy of consideration as potential replacements and I’m not sure Mike Macdonald completely trusts Woolen.

Seek value in free agency

This is actually quite an interesting free agent class, full of untapped potential.

It’s particularly strong in the secondary. Cornerbacks like Asante Samuel Jr, Charvarius Ward, Byron Murphy, Carlton Davis and Nate Hobbs could be interesting. At safety, if you wanted to cut Rayshawn Jenkins to save $5.4m, you could look at Jevon Holland, Andre Cisco, Talanoa Hufanga, Tre’Von Moehrig, Cam Bynum and Julian Blackmon.

Safety is a position that has seen a decreasing market in recent years. There might be some good opportunities here.

There are plenty of intriguing defensive line free agents. DJ Jones, BJ Hill and Bobby Brown could be good interior additions. Marquez Valdez-Scanting excelled with Kubiak in New Orleans. Could he be your new third receiver?

Finally, with Kubiak declaring a desire to have a fullback on the roster, Baltimore’s Patrick Ricard is a free agent and could be added. Adam Prentice was his fullback in New Orleans, he’s also available.

There are players here who can help the Seahawks take the next step and there could be some good value to be had.

Best player available with your top draft pick

Address your biggest needs in free agency then let the draft come to you. This is the best approach to take and it’s one the Seahawks have seemingly committed to since the dreaded start of the 2019 draft.

It’s possible the best player could be an offensive or defensive lineman. In particular, if one of Tyler Booker, Armand Membou or Kelvin Banks Jr lasts to #18, they’d be excellent picks. Similarly, it’s easy to imagine the Seahawks having interest in some of the defensive linemen projected to go in round one.

However, it’s also very possible the best player available won’t be a lineman. It could be a defensive back. Texas’ feisty Jahdae Barron has the football character, toughness, intelligence and playmaking to warrant consideration as a possible cornerback or ‘STAR’ hybrid. If Azareye’h Thomas tests well at the combine, he could be seen as a plug-and-play corner. Nick Emmanwori and Malaki Starks could be intriguing additions to Macdonald’s defense, while some see Jihaad Campbell as a viable top-20 pick.

The Seahawks will likely stick to their board and rightly so. At #18 they might have an opportunity to draft a good player. It might not be at a position most are currently projecting. They will hope — as with last year — players with legit first round value last into the middle of round one.

One thing is for sure though — football character will play a significant part in their final decision.

Draft a quarterback on day two

Contrary to what many other people say, this feels like the time to do it. There’s a middle class of players with upside talent and success in college with high character and leadership qualities.

At #50 or #82 (or in-between if they move around the board) they could be in the market for Will Howard, Quinn Ewers, Riley Leonard and perhaps Jaxson Dart or Tyler Shough. I wouldn’t even totally rule out Jalen Milroe, despite the extremely disappointing end to his Alabama career and Senior Bowl performance.

I talked about why I think Howard, Ewers and Leonard could be targets in more detail here.

Jalen Hurts wasn’t viewed as a sure-fire future starter when he was drafted by the Eagles. He started the draft process viewed by many as a likely fourth round pick. He gradually built his stock up until he was drafted 53rd overall by the Eagles. I think the quarterbacks in this class can repeat that process and can equally come into the league, develop (Hurts only started four games as a rookie) and potentially work into a lead role in the future.

Build the team you want to be

The key to fixing the offensive line isn’t just adding veterans and drafting first rounders. It’s about finding the kind of players who ‘fit’ the mentality and style of team you want to be. They’ve passed on too many players who felt like good fits. They might not like that assessment but the proof is in the archive. Several good linemen with physical, gritty playing styles — that we and others talked about — have gone elsewhere and succeeded.

Even if the Seahawks add veterans before the draft, they should still be adding younger players with the idea of succession plans, depth and development. That’s how the Eagles have built a champion line.

If you want to run the ball effectively with good quality zone blockers, target someone like Iowa’s Connor Colby. A reminder — the Hawkeyes ran for 200+ yards in eight games in 2024. Wisconsin’s highly underrated Jack Nelson can be a swing-tackle or guard. Grey Zabel at North Dakota State has every chance to make it as a starting guard, even if the Senior Bowl hype has been a bit over the top. Someone who had an underrated week in Mobile was Clay Webb — a former 5-star recruit from Georgia with an impressive wrestling background who transferred to Jacksonville State and excelled. After re-watching his Senior Bowl tape, I thought he had an excellent week.

All four of these players grade highly for zone-blocking:

Jack Nelson — 86.4
Clay Webb – 84.9
Grey Zabel – 84.8
Connor Colby – 81.3

Chuck in Wyatt Milum (90.3), Dylan Fairchild (77.2) and Tate Ratledge (74.3) too. All of these players compete with a physical edge, they are scheme fits, some are expected to test well at the combine and you can build the kind of interior O-line you want with these types of players.

Seattle’s best plan for their line will be to sign two good veterans, allowing them the opportunity to draft for the future outside of the first round — freeing them up to go best player available at #18 (which could still be an offensive lineman).

I’d also be very prepared to trade down in round one if a suitor was available to acquire extra stock so you can take multiple shots at players like Nelson, Webb, Zabel, Colby, Milum, Fairchild and Ratledge in rounds three and four.

If you want to be nasty and physical up front, make it happen

Fix the O-line with physical gritty players who excel in your scheme. Sign a full back like Patrick Ricard. Then go and get a devastating blocking tight end.

The best one in this class is Jackson Hawes of Georgia Tech. If you’re keeping Noah Fant, he and AJ Barner can be your top-two pass-catching options at the position. Hawes can be the muscle. Notre Dame’s Mitchell Evans is underrated and a complete tight end with plus blocking and receiving skills. He’s a good alternative option.

For too long the Seahawks have talked about being physically dominant up front. Now make it happen. It’s time to finally be a team nobody wants to play again. It’s time to actually be physically dominant up front. It’s time Lumen Field was a dreaded place to visit once more.

For more on the offensive line options, watch my new video below:

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen

Kirk Cousins has been thought of by some Seahawks fans as a potential option for the team at quarterback.

The rise of Michael Penix Jr in Atlanta and the weight of a massive contract have elevated the idea that Cousins may be available.  The connection to Seattle may have gotten stronger when the Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak – whom Cousins has worked with before – as their new offensive coordinator.

To briefly run through the contract numbers for the Falcons: Cousins has $37.5 million of bonus proration money still left and is owed a $27.5 million guaranteed salary this year, meaning they have an eye-watering $65 million on their books no matter what they do with him.  There is also a contract kicker: if Cousins is on Atlanta’s roster on March 17 of this year, a $10 million roster bonus due in March 2026 becomes guaranteed, which would make their total commitment $75 million.

General Manager Terry Fontenot has attempted to sell to the press with a straight face that he is perfectly fine with Cousins backing up Penix Jr — but the likelihood of that happening is slim.

Many fans have spun a scenario where the Falcons cut Cousins, eating the $65 million as dead cap money and have Cousins signing with a team for the veteran minimum of $1.255 million — just as Russell Wilson did this season in Pittsburgh after being cut by the Broncos.  Seattle, with Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, would seem like a potential destination.

However, through a Twitter conversation in recent days in which I thought out loud a bit, it made me wonder if the Seahawks can acquire Cousins in a way that gives their search for a quarterback of the future a charge?

What if they traded for Kirk Cousins?

Honestly, the probability of this happening is low.  If just the idea at first blush seems outrageous to you, I get it.  It will take a bit of work to reason this out.  But in the spirit of ‘no stone unturned’ it could be a creative way to help the Seahawks acquire a young quarterback to build around – while remaining competitive.  That’s the dream.

Give me a little space to work with here.

Let us examine the numbers and see how the Seahawks could make this work.

If they acquired Cousins via trade, they would be responsible for his fully guaranteed $27.5 million salary for 2025 and the $10 million 2026 roster bonus guarantee would also trigger for a total Seahawks commitment of $37.5 million (he also has non-guaranteed salaries of $35 million in both 2026 and 2027 – you would hear the Seahawks acquired a 3-year, $107.5 million contract but keep in mind only $37.5 million is guaranteed).

This is where we cut hard against the grain in logic.  Why would the Seahawks commit to $37.5 million for Cousins and send capital to Atlanta for the privilege – when they could just wait the situation out and pay only $1.255 million without anything spent in trade?

Answer: The Falcons might be thrilled to cut $27.5 million off their $65 million dead cap hit for cutting Cousins, making it a far more manageable $37.5 million.  They also eat the entire dead cap this year – even gaining a little room in the process – and therefore clear a whopping $57.5 million off their 2026 cap, giving them over $139 million of room to operate.  They can build their team around Penix Jr without restriction.

So thrilled, they would pay the Seahawks to take him off their hands.  And that payment would be made in the form of draft picks.

And when you rarely draft in the top three, stockpiling draft picks is how you find a quarterback in the draft.

What a Cousins Trade Would Look Like

Is there a precedent for a deal of this kind?  There is.

In 2017, the Houston Texans sent Brock Osweiler and his $16 million dead cap hit, along with their 2017 sixth-round pick and their 2018 second-round pick to the Cleveland Browns, in exchange for their 2017 fourth-round pick.

According to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft Trade Value Chart, the Texans sent an estimated net 636 points of trade value to Cleveland to cover the $16 million.  That cap number represented 9.5% of the total 2017 salary cap.

Factoring for cap inflation, 9.5% of the projected 2025 salary cap works out to $25.9 million.  If we increase the number up to Cousins’ $27.5 million salary, we arrive at 675 points of trade value.

What about the $10 million roster bonus?  The Falcons are not officially on the hook for it but the Seahawks would be if they made this trade.  So, let’s split the difference and add $5 million, making 797 points of trade value.

Let’s use the chart to come up with some ideas for trade compensation:

This gives you an idea of what the $37.5 million will buy the Seahawks.

If the Falcons were to even consider this, which of these scenarios would they pick?  I would guess the bottom two.  Why?  The Falcons only have four draft picks this year.  Depleting their stock even more just to unload Cousins would be a hard sell to the fanbase, even if it makes logical sense.

To grease the wheels a bit the Seahawks could even send a player they plan on cutting loose anyway in the deal to sweeten the idea to Atlanta fans.

Maybe Dre’Mont Jones.  The Falcons could always use more linemen.

Noah Fant could be offered.  Ask fans to imagine what Penix Jr could do with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Fant.

But you see where the genesis of this idea lies:  If Atlanta trades 2025 stock, the Seahawks can get an extra pick in the first or second round this year – which supplements their stock and gives them multiple options to add to the trenches as well as picking a quarterback.  With Cousins as the quarterback in 2025, the staff would get a season to groom and train the rookie to take the offense in 2026.

Or if Atlanta chooses to trade 2026 picks, it comes with all kinds of implications.  If they own Atlanta’s first-round pick, they could package them in a trade up for a top quarterback prospect.  The idea would be that the Seahawks fill out their trenches with free agent additions and draft picks this year. The defense takes a major step forward in 2025 to become the strength of the team and the stage is set for a young quarterback to step into a loaded situation and succeed.

There may be a third option.  If the Seahawks like one of the quarterbacks in the 2025 class – say in the second or third round – and he shows promise with a year of development, the Seahawks then have two first-round picks to spend in 2026 on pure talent.  A defensive game-wrecker and a top offensive linemen could be in play with that kind of capital.  Or they could send one of their firsts in a trade for an established veteran and still have another first in the bank.

The possibilities are tantalizing.

But that darn $37.5 million the Seahawks would have to absorb.  That seems like an ugly number and a major obstacle to even considering this.  Is there a way to work with this?

There is.

The Salary Cap Implications

It is obvious that if the Seahawks made this trade, Geno Smith would not stay on the roster.  He would be released or traded to pick up $31 million of cap space.

Therefore in 2025 terms, the Seahawks would gain that but then add $27.5 million to the cap for a net gain of only $3.5 million.  The $10 million bonus due in 2026 makes it a net loss of $6.5 million.

The resulting cap hits would look like this:

Therefore, a trade like what we outlined in its fullest form would look like:

Geno Smith (with 1yr of team control) + $10 million in 2026 cap dollars

For:

Kirk Cousins (with 3yrs of team control) + a healthy draft pick + $3.5 million in 2025 cap dollars

A re-commitment to Smith means more guaranteed money coming to the cap in 2026 and 2027 – I would guess $25-30 million at the low end.  It would also likely make a move to trade or cut Smith in 2026 very punitive.

Whereas a trade for Kirk Cousins gives the Seahawks flexibility for both 2026 and 2027.

Think of it this way: The Seahawks are going to add $37.5 million to their cap this offseason at the quarterback spot either way, be it Cousins or Smith.  So, trading for Cousins’ contract is not taking on some massive new debt that loads the team down.

Trading for Cousins benefits the Seahawks if they want to get creative with his contract to open cap room.

OTC says a Geno Smith extension could save the team approximately $23.8 million, taking his 2025 cap number to down $20.7 million.

The Seahawks could nearly match that number without any additional commitment if they restructured Cousins’ contract.  They would do it by converting the bulk of his 2025 salary to a signing bonus and stretching it out over the life of the contract like this:

In 2026, they have options.  They could cut Cousins and pick up $26.252 million in cap room.  They could keep him and convert some salary to bonus to lower his number.

If they need to, they can approach Cousins about reworking his contract to keep him on for another season.  There is a line of reasoning that Cousins has played the game as well as anyone, chasing the top dollar in the market.  He has $293 million in career earnings.  Why not sacrifice some salary to stay on a team that could really make some noise in the playoffs?

If they choose to move on in 2026, they could even get slick by converting his $10 million roster bonus to a signing bonus, and then cutting him in a post-June 1 move:

The cap situation and options are better than extending Geno Smith.

The draft picks that would come in return favor trading for Cousins instead of retaining Smith.

There is a third factor that may be difficult to parse.

What Kind of Production Could the Seahawks Expect from Cousins?

Here is the rub.  After an excellent start in 2024, Cousins stumbled down the stretch and was benched in favor of Penix Jr.

That puts a real damper on his current outlook.  It should be noted that Cousins recently revealed that he was injured in Week 10 in two places on his throwing arm and he never got right the rest of the season.  At that point, the Falcons were 6-3 and in the thick of the playoff race.  They went 2-6 the rest of the way and that sunk their season.

If we take him at his word, consider those last eight games lost and just look at the first nine and compare them to Geno Smith’s:

On balance, Cousins’ numbers beat Smith’s in nearly every category.  It should be noted that the Falcons played six of those nine games against teams that made the playoffs, whereas the Seahawks only played four of their nine against playoff teams (including one in Bo Nix’ first ever NFL game).

Factors in Cousins’ favor: Bijan Robinson and an effective offensive line.

Factors in Smith’s favor: The Seahawks fielded a superior defense over Atlanta’s by a healthy margin.

An argument could be made that a healthy Cousins is a more effective option than Smith.

The Seahawks need a thorough physical to ascertain whether Cousins’ arm (and ankle) troubles are over and time to investigate whether his claims of injury to explain poor performance have merit.

If they do think Cousins can exceed or even just match Smith’s output in 2025, they should strongly consider whether Atlanta would be interested in a move like this.

Another factor in Cousins’ favor: The Klint Kubiak angle.  He already has an advantage over Smith in familiarity with Kubiak’s style, terminology and system.  He no doubt would be a leader in communicating and teaching it to the rest of the offense (and more so if they go out and add Cousins’ 2024 center – Drew Dalman).  Whereas Smith would be working with his third Offensive Coordinator in 3 seasons.

Is that enough to tip the scales?  It just might be.

Conclusions

There are many, many “ifs” in this thought line.  Possibly too many, if we are honest.

The Seahawks in recent days have indicated that they want Smith as their quarterback.  They could possibly view upgrades at key spots like the offensive line and a new coordinator as the key to ultimate success.  Frankly, after Sunday’s Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts beating Patrick Mahomes, that seems more plausible.

I will say this, though: Talk is cheap.  They may want Smith back but they may be unable to reach an agreement on an extension and be forced to look at other options.

Another big consideration: Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract.  He would need to be convinced to accept this trade.  By all outward appearances, he has been a real professional in handling his demotion.  But internally he may be convinced that a move to a familiar coach with multiple weapons to work with is the best move for him right now.  Or he may make a non-football decision and want to stay in Atlanta where he has family.

Again, the Falcons must be highly interested in saving cap space and be open to aggressively pursuing an option like this.  Is that a possibility?  Yes.

Fontenot said this when the Falcons traded Matt Ryan and ate $40.5 million of dead cap in the deal:

“We’re taking it on the chin this year,” Fontenot said. “But taking it on the chin this year and how you look at where we are next year, it’s significant. If not, if we don’t do that, we could’ve restructured his contract or done something with his contract and kept him this year, and then we would still have to trade him after the season or if we keep him next year then you’re still in a really tough salary cap situation. With this, you take it on the chin this year and it’s our job to find value in free agency and to draft well and to put a good football team on the field this year, even with that dead cap. It’s an obstacle, but we look at it as an opportunity, and that’s our job. We’re not making excuses about it. Us taking it on the chin right now, it makes a significant difference for us next year and the future.”

With this viewpoint, we can at least feel confident that he would take the Seahawks’ call and consider an opportunity like this.

Remember, the baseline construct of this trade would be to acquire a quarterback of the future.  Swapping Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are pit stops on the way to a larger goal.

We have seen how hard it is to acquire a franchise quarterback.  Russell Wilsons in the third round and Brock Purdys in the seventh are the exception rather than the rule.  You need to be aggressively searching for your next quarterback if you do not already have a long-term solution.

If they can acquire a strong veteran quarterback, add some draft stock and maintain cap flexibility?  That is a win on all counts.

This idea – no matter how farfetched in conventional terms – is presented with that goal in mind.

For more from Curtis, check out his appearance this week on the HawkZone Rundown podcast…