Pass rush win percentages (draft and free agency)

Dante Fowler had a 23% win rate as a pass rusher in 2019

A year ago Pete Carroll delivered the following quote as he prepared to draft a defensive lineman in round one:

“We’re just looking for activity and problem-makers. Usually you can look to that pressure percentage; how many times when they rush do they affect the quarterback?”

L.J. Collier’s pressure percentage was 19.2% in his final year at TCU, just below Brian Burns (19.7%) and Montez Sweat (20.2%). He had a higher rating than Clelin Ferrell (18.5%) and Rashan Gary (15.8%).

Evidently this was a big reason why they drafted him at #27.

Unfortunately pressure percentage stats aren’t widely available. PFF openly promotes ‘pass rush win percentage’ but doesn’t reveal the pressure percentages for a whole draft class.

We do know the following:

Joshua Uche — 23.3%
Terrell Lewis — 19.8%
Zach Baun — 16.5%
Jabari Zuniga — 15.8%
James Lynch — 15.7%
A.J. Epenesa — 13.4%
Jordan Elliott — 12.7%
Marlon Davidson — 12.2%
Javon Kinlaw — 12.1%
Derrick Brown — 9.8%

PFF also revealed that Julian Okwara (19.1%) and Curtis Weaver (18.2%) led all draft eligible pass rushers in pressure percentage for 2018 and 2019 combined. Chase Young was third with 17.6%.

In terms of career pressures, here are the top four:

Chase Young — 150
Curtis Weaver — 147
AJ Epenesa — 138
Julian Okwara — 124

Little bits of information like this are important. This is where PFF excels. Not so much with their unexplained and iffy ‘grades’ but certainly with these advanced stats. For example, Jonathan Taylor leads draft eligible running backs for yards after contact (1257 yards). That’s something the Seahawks will notice.

Hopefully more of the pressure percentage information will be revealed before the draft, given Carroll has acknowledged it’s significance in their evaluation process.

In the meantime, we can look at pass rush win percentage. We have the stats for college defensive tackles, defensive ends and the pro-statistics for the 2019 season (including some prominent free agents).

Draft eligible DE/EDGE pass rush win percentage:

Chase Young — 27.2%
Joshua Uche — 27%
Julian Okwara — 23%
Curtis Weaver — 22.9%
Alex Highsmith — 21.7%
Khalid Kareem — 21.4%
Bradlee Anae — 20.2%
Zach Baun — 20.1%
Jabari Zuniga — 20%
Terrell Lewis — 19.8%
Trevis Gipson — 19.2%
Carter Coughlin — 19%
Yetur Gross-Mator — 18.9%
Darrell Taylor — 18.6%
Jonathan Garvin — 18.5%
A.J. Epenesa — 17.5%
Jon Greenard — 17.2%
Marlon Davidson — 16.2%
Alton Robinson — 15.9%
James Lynch — 15.5%
Trevon Hill — 15.3%
Kenny Willekes — 14.6%
K’Lavon Chaisson — 13.1%

Joshua Uche grades very well in both pressure percentage and pass rush win percentage. PFF offer this note of caution though:

“Uche is quite the confounding evaluation because while he’s graded out exceptionally well, it’s come on a very small sample size and not from a traditional edge alignment. Many of Uche’s wins this season came almost as a blitzer walked up over interior linemen. While that’s a great skill to have, it’s not really a substitute for beating offensive tackles one-on-one. Being undersized only makes that more of a question mark.”

Uche didn’t do anything at the combine so we don’t have a physical profile to judge either. He looks like an Uchenna Nwosu type suited to playing linebacker rather than an EDGE or LEO. Michigan run a very aggressive, attack-minded defense. The Seahawks prefer to rush conservatively with four.

Julian Okwara played limited snaps in 2019 because his season was cut short through injury. However, his 23% pass rush win percentage and 2018/19 average of 19.1% pressure percentage are both intriguing. Those are the kind of numbers that could interest Seattle. In comparison, L.J. Collier had an 18% pass rush win percentage and a 19.2% pressure percentage. Like Uche, Okwara didn’t test at the combine so we don’t know his testing numbers to properly determine his Seahawks fit.

K’Lavon Chaisson’s numbers are striking for a different reason. His 13.1% pass rush win percentage is the lowest among EDGE candidates and correlates to what you see on tape. A lot of his pressures and sacks were manufactured through stunts. Any investment in him is based on potential, not production. However — he also didn’t test at the combine. So for a third time, we don’t know how truly athletic he is.

For comparison, here are the 2019 class of DE/EDGE’s and their pass rush win percentage scores:

Josh Allen — 30.3%
Jaylon Ferguson — 26.6%
Christian Miller — 24.1%
Joe Jackson — 23.1%
Montez Sweat — 22.1%
Clelin Ferrell — 21.3%
Jachai Polite — 20.4%
Oshane Ximines — 20.1%
Anthony Nelson — 19.2%
Brian Burns — 18.5%
Chase Winovich — 18.2%
L.J. Collier — 18.0%
D’Andre Walker — 16.6%
Rashan Gary — 16.2%
Ben Banogu — 16.0%
Zach Allen — 13.4%
Charles Omenihu — 10.3%

Back to the 2020 draft class and here are the defensive tackle pass rush win percentage scores:

Jordan Elliott — 18.7%
Javon Kinlaw — 18.1%
Justin Madubuike — 14.9%
Robert Windsor — 14.3%
Neville Gallimore — 14.2%
Derrick Brown — 13.7%
Raequan Williams — 13.5%
Ross Blacklock — 12.6%
Davon Hamilton — 12.6%
Josiah Coatney — 12.4%
Raekwon Davis — 11.9%
Benito Jones — 10.5%
Jason Strowbridge — 10.5%
Rashard Lawrence — 8.1%
Darrion Daniels — 8%
Leki Fotu — 7.7%

I’ve watched a bit of Jordan Elliott and I didn’t see a top-level, exciting pass rusher. Javon Kinlaw was totally different. He impacted games, even against opponents such as Alabama. I waited to see the splash plays PFF claims happen all the time with Elliott and just came away underwhelmed.

Some of these numbers matter more than others. Rashard Lawrence and Leki Fotu are never going to be elite pass-rushers so it’s not a big concern they’re at the bottom. Jason Strowbridge is much more of an inside-out rusher type and his placing at the bottom explains the difference between his college tape and his Senior Bowl performance.

Here’s the 2019 class comparison:

Quinnen Williams — 19.7%
Christian Wilkins — 16.4%
Dexter Lawrence — 14.6%
Jerry Tillery — 14.3%
Dre’Mont Jones — 13.3%
Greg Gaines — 13.0%
Trysten Hill — 12.2%
Jeffery Simmons — 11.8%
Khalen Saunders — 11.5%
Ed Oliver — 11.4%
Gerald Willis III — 10.0%

For all the hand-wringing about Raekwon Davis as a pass-rusher — his win percentage is almost identical to Jeffery Simmons who ended up being a top-20 pick despite suffering an ACL tear pre-draft. His 11.9% score is also superior to top-10 pick Ed Oliver.

It’s worth noting that of the defensive tackles above — two were top-10 picks, three went between picks 11-20, Jerry Tillery was the #28 pick, Trysten Hill the #58 pick and both Dre’Mont Jones and Khalen Saunders went in round three. So don’t be surprised if the productive pass-rushing defensive tackles listed above go early.

Finally, let’s look at the pass rush win percentage for the pro’s during the 2019 season:


Robert Quinn — 33%
T.J. Watt — 28%
DeMarcus Lawrence — 27%
Myles Garrett — 26%
Jadeveon Clowney — 25%
Joey Bosa — 25%
Shaquil Barrett — 25%
Dante Fowler — 23%
Za’Darius Smith — 23%
Preston Smith — 23%

Defensive tackle

Aaron Donald — 25%
Grady Jarrett — 22%
Chris Jones — 19%
Maliek Collins — 16%
Quinton Jefferson — 16%
Calais Campbell — 16%
Ed Oliver — 15%
Denico Autry — 14%
Matthew Ioannidis 13%
Vita Vea 13%

Of the names above, six are free agents this year — Robert Quinn, Jadeveon Clowney, Shaquil Barrett, Dante Fowler, Chris Jones and Quinton Jefferson. Kansas City are placing the franchise tag on Jones and Tampa Bay will do the same with Barrett. Quinn, Clowney, Fowler and Jefferson will reach the market.

Furthermore, several performed well after reaching free agency a year ago. DeMarcus Lawrence was tagged and then signed his big new deal with Dallas. Barrett played on a prove-it deal in Tampa Bay as did Dante Fowler in LA. Za’Darius and Preston Smith both signed with Green Bay and Grady Jarrett was tagged by Atlanta before signing a large extension. All of those deals paid off.

The results above are also a reminder that stats don’t tell the whole story. Quinton Jefferson, as well as he played at times in 2019, was clearly not more impactful than Calais Campbell.

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  1. JayRob

    Yes Please! Reports that Jacksonville is shopping Campbell (among others).

    • Rob Staton

      The problem they’ve got is they clearly want to trade Foles and that involves eating $13m in dead money on top of his cap hit.

    • Rob Staton

      My response to this would be we already discussed this a few weeks ago and $15m would be a bargain for Campbell based on his 2017-19 production.

  2. Kingdome1976

    I wonder how much Quinn would cost for say a 2 year deal.

    • Radman

      I’ve become a more supportive of the idea of bargain shopping on the D line this year and spreading resources around. Signing 3 of Campbell, Quinn, Irvin, McCoy/Suh (less enthused of this one because I think he’s cooked but open to it), and an Ogbah/Beasley type. Not making any huge commitments to a single player. Get those guys in a rotation with the young guys. I like this idea better than making a huge buy on the top shelf guys.

      • Rob Staton

        That’s a good plan if you want a below average, old pass rush.

        • Greg Haugsven

          Its either that or pay a guy $18-$22 million a year which we are not sure they want to do. If I was a betting man i think they go more rotation and spread the money around but we will find out soon enough.

          • Rob Staton

            I’d bet on Clowney. This is a team that, quite recently, has placed a high value on fit and character. And they’ve said repeatedly that Clowney fit. To not pay him, in favour of paying outsiders a little bit less, would be madness. Because all you do is push the problem into 2021 and who knows if all those ageing other guys make it work? Sign Clowney and get his best years. Sign a compliment. If there’s a chance at a third, great. If not then go to Notre Dame’s pro day or make a trade.

            They will fix this properly not band aid.

            • Sean Vernon

              good work, Rob.

              What are your thoughts on Quinn and Fowler? I still don’t know why we’d hold onto KJ Wright with a $7.5mm cap savings with his departure. That opens up $$ for a pass rusher and a more significant player than KJ’s “projected” contributions for 2020. LB’s are easier to grab and impact as a rookie. We traded up to grab Barton, so it’s time he stepped up in yr 2.

              I’d like to sign Clowney and move him around the D on the strong side. Whether 5 tech or moving around the LOS on passing situations. Heck, even SAM and looping around the 5 tech to blow up a guard pressure up the gut.

              We need a Fowler/Quinn and Clowney if we want to move into the top half of NFL defenses. LB’s are much easier to find and having $25mm tied up on Wags/KJ for 2020 is far too expensive in this era. That’s an area that I just don’t get with PC/JS. Based D with 3 backers and KJ/Wags have definitely slowed. Not enough impact plays at or behind the LOS and for $25mm/yr?

              Respect your view and thanks for all of your diligent work on this site.

              • DJ 1/2 Way (Sea/PDX)

                KJ’s impact is being underestimated here. He is important during the game and all the rest of the time. He earned 2020 and I hope he plays so well that the Seahawks are considering signing next off season.

            • BruceN

              Rob, do you think all talk around Clowney and NYG is just talk (or posturing) to get the best contract out of the Hawks? I also read Hawks may be pursuing Ngakoue. While younger and less of an injury history, he’s not as a good match for our D (not very good against the rush) and not physically in the mold of what PC looks for (short arms, etc.). And if we plan to spend big on a rusher, why give up a haul, in addition.

              • Rob Staton

                Everything is posturing two weeks before FA.

    • Greg Haugsven

      A good comp for him would be what Justin Houston got last year. 2 years $23 million. He has been my favorite since day one. Not sure if the Cowboys let him go.

  3. HawkfaninMT

    You do a better job than anyone of identifying these stats and deconstructing what the Hawks ID as important and predictive.

    I wonder, at what point do you feel the Hawks are able to fold a bad a hand? By that I mean, they have metrics they use to ID targets (32+ for CBs, 33+ for DBs in terms of arm length; Ht/Wt for RBs; 10 yd split for Edge; etc)… but how quickly do they say “well that was wrong!”

    I ask this because you delineate a very good reason (Pressure Percentage) for why they drafted Collier, but what if they feel like he isn’t the player they thought he was. Do you feel like they would scrap that metric, or just hope that he was an negative outlier?

    • Rob Staton

      I doubt they’d scrap a metric as useful as this based on one rookie season.

      • cha

        And a banged up one at that

  4. mishima

    Quality and quantity of content: mind blown. Thanks, Rob.

    Beginning to think they’ll target Fowler over Clowney in free agency, try trading for Calais Campbell and want R. Davis in draft.

    • GoHawksDani

      Not a superfan of Fowler (just has a feeling about him), but Campbell + Davis would look amazing

    • Rob Staton

      Clowney will be priority #1. 100%.

      • Ralphy

        I’m not sure why people are starting to feel like the Hawks won’t go all in on Clowney. They traded for him to get him all in on the culture and it obviously worked based on his comments. They aren’t going to let him walk unless someone comes in with QB type money and I don’t see that happening. The Hawks are not going to let him walk so that they can go sign Fowler.

        • Trevor

          I think Clowney is priority #1 for sure but they traded more draft capital for Sheldon Richardson and were willing to let him walk.

          I think like always PC/JS will place a value on Clowney and what they feel he is worth then try to get a deal done. I would be shocked if they get into a bidding war and give him any type of record setting deal.

          • Rob Staton

            That’s because Sheldon didn’t fit. Clowney did.

        • Submanjoe

          ‘All in’ in pcjs seahawks might be 3 years 57 mil, or 4 for 72-76mil. Maybe 4 for 80. But if some team offers 5 for 104.5, what will Clowney take? The devils in the details. These seahawks gamble that their environment and experience and winning culture trump top dollar, it’s up to Clowney to decide. We’ll know soon enough. Hopefully he decides to stay.

        • Rob Staton

          Spot on. He will only walk if someone offers daft money.

      • BleedBlueHawk

        Totally agree Mr. Staton, the Hawks PC/JS, with Jody Allen’s blessing, love what Clowney does as the entire NFL would. I think they come up with a record breaker for Clowney but not one that’s like “What were they thinking”? but more like “hmm great get and not that bad salary cap over time” like JS/PC pull off. When it happens everyone will be like “oh yeah knew they couldn’t let Clowney go”….Anyway, would love to see Quinn, the Wilsoneater, with the Rams, across from Clowney, Reed, Ford and Chris Harris in the slot! Great job as usual, Go Hawks!

  5. Simo

    Wow! After reading this piece, it became very clear there just aren’t very many exciting options available this spring for the Hawks to fix the pass rush.

    Aside from the very best draft prospects (Young, Brown, Kinlaw) there may not be many who will help right away. Some, like Okwara, Weaver, Lewis, etc, may develop into quality pass rushers but probably won’t be impact players this year.

    Then you drop a bomb and say there’s only six FA pass rushers who will reach the market– and two of them are already Seahawks! This job of fixing the pass rush is getting more challenging by the day. Teams may line up to throw money at Quinn and Fowler with the options being so limited.

    Guess this is why you keep projecting a trade for a veteran pass rusher, and this only works if teams are willing to part with them. I’m sure John is diving deep into the rosters of the teams tight against the cap. I have faith, but it ain’t gonna be easy!

    • EranUngar

      “there’s only six FA pass rushers who will reach the market” – This is not what Rob said. He just mentioned the 6 of the top PFF pass rush win percentage are free agents.

      There are a lot of other options outside that list at both edge and DT available that could be very helpful for the Seahawks. EDGE – Dupree, Armstead, Griffin, Ogbah, JPP etc. and DTs – Reader, Williams, Hargrave, Suh, Brockers, Collins, Day, Philips, McCoy etc.

      • Simo

        Agreed, there are other options who will probably be available, and some could definitely help the Hawks this year and beyond. However, over the past several weeks Rob has given solid rationale why many of these guys most likely won’t be Seahawk targets.

        Dupree, JPP not good system fits. Ogbah not a twitchy athlete. Brockers not much pass rush period. Armstead will be costly and may be a bit overrated after playing on a loaded def line in SF. The other guys you listed aren’t really what I would consider premium pass rush guys, but you’re right that they could help.

        So, its still a somewhat limited group who are solid fits in Seattle, both financially and schematically. We’ll see what happens.

        • Trevor

          Ogbah not a twitchy athlete?

          He is an ideal size for a LEO and had a great combine. I would be shocked if the Hawks are not taking a close look at him. From a size and athletic profile he is ideal IMO.

          Height 6’4″ /

          Arm Length 35 1/2″

          Weight 273LBS.

          Hands 10″

          40 Yard Dash: 4.63 seconds
          10 Yard Split: 1.58 seconds
          Bench Press: 20 reps (225 lb)
          Vertical Leap: 35.5 inches
          Broad Jump: 121 inches
          20 Yd Shuttle: 4.50 seconds
          Three Cone: 7.26 seconds

          • Simo

            You’re probably right, and I may have confused him with someone else in regards to not being a twitchy athlete.

            He hasn’t been extremely productive over his four year career though, averaging 4.5 sacks/yr. He’s also missed 16 games in his career, so has some injury history that might be concerning.

            Maybe he’s someone they will take a look at, but similar to my thoughts on Vic Beasley — I sure hope he’s not counted on to much.

  6. Group Captain Mandrake

    Nice work as always, Rob. I’d like them to resign Clowney, but I feel like they won’t because of the money he will want. Question about Calais Campbell. I’ve always liked him and wished the Hawks would have got him last time he hit free agency. I know you are a big fan, and that he is still productive, but do you have any reservations about his age and if his skills will start to decline?

    • Rob Staton

      I wouldn’t read into the current dynamic on Clowney. So much posturing. Let’s just wait and see what offers he gets. Seattle won’t let him walk to spend similar amounts on weaker players they don’t know.

      • All I see is 12s

        Everything, including the Josinina Anderson “report” indicates that the market for JC is not as robust as once thought, fair or not. Lack of sacks, and injury concerns seem to be really driving things down. The graziano/ Fowler report as well as th Peter king report seem to affirm this. The only question seems to be if some bad team like the Giants throws an overwhelming offer at him that he can’t refuse.

        • Group Captain Mandrake

          I hope that’s the case. I’d really like Seattle to bring him back because he’s a fantastic player and a good fit for the team. He brings a lot more than just sacks. But the reality is that any player is going to try and “get his” because careers are finite. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he is shooting for the moon, I just hope that some other team doesn’t give it to him. There’s always some foolish GM willing to overpay for a superstar.

          • lil’stink

            There are a lot of teams with a lot more cap space than us. Someone will offer Clowney a huge deal. It happens every free agency, with the market at key positions being reset.

            • BleedBlueHawk

              True, a lot of teams out there with more money but listening to Clowney, watching him play and on the sidelines, the sincere emotion and drive…I believe he really does understand how fleeting a career can be, due to his injuries and also how rare trips to the post-season can be. Could have cashed in with the trade to Miami but refused, tells me something about him as a man. Bottom line; he love the Hawk’s culture, philosophy and the whole Roman brotherhood legionnaire thing PC/JS have going, not to mention RW at QB…several reasons he will stay AND get paid but in a team friendly way. Go Hawks!

  7. Gaux Hawks

    Rob, what are Von Miller’s numbers?

  8. GoHawksDani

    If they think Clowney asks for too much do you think they’d draft a DE/EDGE guy in R1/R2?
    Okwara/Weaver/Zuniga/Yetur Gross-Matos?
    If they don’t wanna retain Clowney, I doubt they’d go for Armstead or Fowler.
    They could go for Beasley + Ogbah + Griffen, or trade for a cheaper option, but not sure how much pressure we can get from cheaper alternatives

  9. Zane

    What’s the defining characteristic that made our 2013 defense so dominant?
    As Lynch said before the SB, “-we’ve got some dogs.”

    It was a motley crew of cast-offs and misfits, an unruly gang of hungry dogs.

    Where do we find the dogs again? Where are the overlooked d-lineman ready to prove themselves?

    • All I see is 12s

      3 pro bowlers in secondary(2 HOF)
      HOF MLB(Bobby) and pro bowler (KJ)
      Couple of pro bowl pass rushers and above average players all around
      Hardly cast offs, an amazing assembly of talent specific to their scheme
      It also helped that the offense had several HOF players and was likewise riddled with pro bowlers
      They were just really good.
      Harder to build again as the league copied the model…

      • EranUngar

        Make it 3 ALL PROs in the secondary…

        • Greg Haugsven

          A big key on that team was the pass rush and how spread out it was. Michael Bennett was the snap leader playing only 58% of the snaps.

          • GerryG

            The low snap count of the DL was an underrated aspect of 2013. After that the depth wasn’t there, and it was certainly a part of some of the blown leads that still historically great D had in the 14-16 seasons

    • mishima

      Pissed off for greatness. Attitude.

  10. Greg Haugsven

    Pete has mentioned the need to find a Leo. I was just looking through some numbers trying to find a guy on the cheap who could be an option and its a guy we have talked about before.

    Arm Length…32.5
    Bench press…26
    Broad Jump…118
    3 Cone…7.35
    Short Shuttle…4.50

    Arm Length…32.25
    Bench Press…18
    Broad Jump…116
    3 Cone…7.47
    Short Shuttle…4.58

    Arm Length…33.3
    Bench Press…23
    Broad Jump…123
    3 Cone…6.70
    Short Shuttle…4.03

    Arm Length…32.5
    Bench Press…35
    Broad Jump…130
    3 Cone…6.90
    Short Shuttle…4.15

    The first guy is Yannick Ngakoue who some people are clamoring for but will cost us a fortune.

    The second guy is Chris Clemons who we traded for back in 2010 and had mediocre numbers until he came to Seattle and had three straight 11 sack seasons.

    The third guy is Bruce Irvin who we took with our first pick in the 2012 draft.

    The last guy is Vic Beasley who has had some decent numbers in Atlanta and could be a possible target for the Leo spot. He is 27 right now and Chris Clemons was 29 when we traded for him. I could for sure see this guy as a target on a cheaper prove it type contract. Yes it would be great to have Fowler or Ngakoue but is the better value lie with Beasley?

    • Rob Staton

      Not if he plays as badly as he did in Atlanta the last two years.

      • Greg Haugsven

        Correct, but we are talking about buying low here. If he tore it up last year the Falcons wouldnt have let him go and he would be asking for $18 mill a year. Im just thinking of buy low options. Plus he did have 8 sacks last year which would double our sack leader.

        • Simo

          Gotta love a good reclamation project, at least when it works out! Bring him in on a modest prove it, incentive laden deal and hope you strike gold. Low risk, potentially good reward! Let’s just hope that he isn’t the only move to improve the pass rush.

      • Rob4q

        But if Beasley is just part of the solution, I think it works. Resigning Clowney is absolutely priority #1 and everything starts with that. But then if you sign Beasley to a prove it deal, 1-2 years, then trade for Campbell, draft Davis and either Okwara or Zuniga that gives you a lot to work with. They would still need to make the call on Reed and if not, then find a replacement.

        DE Rotation

        DT Rotation

        • Rob Staton

          I’d take Beasley as a third wheel if he’s cheap.

          • Kenny Sloth

            Major agreeance

    • WALL UP

      It’s interesting to note that (3) of those mentioned above have 32.5″ or less arm length. Speed and get off hold sway over arm length, when getting after the QB, in some instances.

  11. Gaux Hawks

    Re: Clowney Negotiations

    Let’s not forget about that state tax luxury of living in WA. Potentially a $2M cushion that the FO have to play with. Then add position and culture fit… we’ve got a huge competitive advantage over a lot of other teams…

    • drewdawg11

      A lot of players want the bragging rights and they know full well that if they get that bigger deal, they’ll make more based on the taxe break.

  12. Trevor

    A plan for the Hawks to go ultra aggressive and all in on fixing the pass rush. Would cost about $40 mil/yr and I am not saying it is likely or even the best thing to do but I would feel comfortable that the defence would be vastly improved.

    -Sign Clowney
    -Trade #27 for Chris Jones on the franchise tag and sign him to a new deal.
    -Bring in a situational speed rusher on a 1yr deal like Beasly or Irvin.

    • Trevor

      Plan B would cost about $35-40 mil as well.

      -Sign Clowney
      -Sign Robert Quinn
      -Sign Emanuel Ogbah
      -Draft Raekwon Davis

    • EmperorMA

      Clowney, Jones and Beasley would be nice.

  13. Steve Nelsen

    It is clear that resolving Clowney’s status is priority #1. Once we know whether Clowney is coming back and what his cap hit is, we will know what budget we have available.

    If they also keep Jarran, they may only be able to afford another Ansah-type contract which means looking at Ogbah or Beasley on a short-term deal. Spending $20+ million on FA defensive linemen also means they are likely to use their first pick on a RT and get a cheap veteran hedge.

    Seattle needs to have $5-10 million in cap space for rookies and to cover potential injury replacements in the 2020 season. As John Schneider said at the combine when asked about the available cap space, “It goes fast.”

  14. drewdawg11

    I think that if they are keeping 27, and the re-sign Clowney, trade for Calais, that first pick may just be a younger edge like Okwara. He may not be there if he has a great pro day because of the dearth of pure edge rushers. Davis would probably be left out because he won’t make it to the late second round.

    • mishima

      Agree, but I’m preparing a trade down, then Curtis Weaver.

      • mishima

        *preparing for

        • jujus

          I will be on suicide watch if they drafted Weaver.

          • drewdawg11

            I’ll be your support group. Nice player, but I wouldn’t want to draft him high, nor would I want an edge like him.

  15. RipleyRay


    What are your thoughts on Arik Armstead? Is he someone the Hawks are considering?

    • Rob Staton

      I think he will be plan B if Clowney goes elsewhere.

      • Pearedu

        Niners were trying hard to resign him allegedly. Although dont know quite how can they afford him.
        he is gonna command 18M

  16. Greg Haugsven

    Here is a stat I found from 2013. Its the Seahawk defensive line snap percentage. If they lose out on Clowney and go more to a committee approach here is what it could look like with a collection of players.

    Michael Bennett…57.39%
    Chris Clemons…54.51%
    Cliff Avril…53.26%
    Brandon Mebane…51.06%
    Clinton McDonald…50.96%
    Tony McDaniel…50.58%
    Bruce Irvin…47.89%
    Red Bryant…46.16%

    If this was to happen who could be our 8 players?

    • Rob4q

      Because you said 8 players and not resigning Clowney, here is my thought:

      E. Griffen
      Raekwon Davis

      • TomLPDX

        Forgot all about Christmas…wonder if he’ll even make the team?

        • Rob4q

          Well, he’s had some time in the system now, but needs to be able to stay healthy to get on the field.

          They also have Bryan Mone and Naz Jones still on the roster if I’m not mistaken. So if they splurge on some other positions, they do still have some cheap options for DT. It’s one of the reasons why I don’t see them bringing back Al Woods again.

          I also read that if Reed leaves, they would slide Ford over to his spot to play more there which is interesting for sure! I think it was PC talking about the jump he expects Poona to make this year and be able to play that role.

          • DJ 1/2 Way (Sea/PDX)

            Yes. The banked dline talent comes back to bless the Seahawks and fill out the depleted ranks when the Seahawks trade up for Simmons.

    • Ukhawk

      All a bit easier with Dangeruss on his rookie deal

    • GoHawksDani

      Interesting idea, thinking about this recently. They love Clowney, and might be #1 prio, but they might go different and get heavy rotation with other guys, like:
      Green (already on roster), Ford (on roster), Collier (with us)
      Re-sign Reed (prove it 9m deal) and QJeff (6m)
      Sign Beasley (7m), Ogbah (8m), Griffen (12m)
      Draft Raekwon Davis (R2) and Okwara/Zuniga (R2)

      That is 10 guys. Aroung 42m in FA and 2 picks. We can go a bit cheaper by not signing one of the FAs and sign cheaper option than Reed (Shelton maybe?). That way it’d be like 30m in FA only

  17. john_s

    Khalid Kareem @ 21% pass rush rate win rate….not bad compared to others on the list.

    I am all in on getting Kareem (depending on testing) and Rashard Lawrence.

    I think it’s imperative to sign Clowney, but also a LEO type in free agency. Clowney is not really a LEO, but more of a 5 tech so you want to fill the LEO.

    Someone mentioned Emmanuel Ogbah, another player in the similar mold is Stephen Weatherly

    Height 6’4″
    Weigtht – 267
    Arm Length – 34 1/2
    40 yd – 4.61
    10 Yd – 1.59
    Bench – 23
    Vert – 31
    Broad – 117

    Do i think he’s the solution for LEO? Not him alone, but sign him, draft Kareem and sign another free agent and it will be an upgrade.

    DE – Clowney, Rasheem, LJ, Weatherly, Kareem
    DT – Poona, Lawrence, Reed, Al Woods –

    If Seattle can’t afford to sign Jarran Reed, one under the radar guy i would look at is Tyeler Davison, free agent who played at ATL. His measurables are very similar to Reed. He is 6’2″ so not the oversized 3 Tech they’ve had in the past. Then also re-sign Al Woods and draft a pass rushing 3 tech like McTelvin Agim.

    Overall, not very overwhelming and it sucks there are not more options in both the draft and free agency

    • Jhams

      I’ll say it again, I think they should let Reed walk, resign Al Woods, and sign Danny Shelton to a 3-4m deal.

      • Greg Haugsven

        Ogbah isnt a Leo either as he is to big. The Leo is generally between 250-260 (Irvin, 250…Clemons, 255, Avril, 260).

        • Henry Taylor

          I think he could play Leo, he has the length and burst. Not too fussed if he happens to have an extra 10lbs on his frame.

  18. Volume12

    He’s a guy we talked about a LOT last year, but I still think Jabari Zuniga is a nice option on day 2.

    • Jhams

      I’d say Okwara would be my first choice, then Zuniga. All depending on how YGM tests at his pro day (he is doing that right?)

    • Rob Staton


  19. Greg Haugsven

    If we lose out on Clowney and you can only have two of the three which two do you choose? Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Calais Campbell.

    Think I go Quinn and Campbell as Griffen is similar to Green and Quinn could play the Leo.

    • EmperorMA

      I say Quinn, Campbell and Clowney.

      Additional rotational guys would be all we’d need if we could pull that off.

  20. bigten

    Since everyone seems to be doing a wishlist, here is mine (not that it matters lol):
    • Resign Clowney for Similar deal as Frank Clark. I think the lack of production weighs heavier than is given credit in the media. Just as the league is drifting towards Pass, the desire on defense is the same.
    • Sign Beasley
    • Sign Ogbah
    • Sign Griffen
    • Trade a third + (player or future pick) for Calais. I think we will get him cehaper than expected.
    • Sign Fant who is promised the ability to to start, and subsequently had a weak market. His lack of starts, and the depth of the draft drive his market down. The rumor of the Jets was released by his agent, and was never a real thing.
    • Keep David Moore
    • Let rest walk
    • Restructure Britt
    • Trade back with our first pick twice and recoup a third and a fourth.
    Round 2-
    o First pick is Raekwon Davis
    o use a fourth to trade up grab Taylor in mid second. I just don’t see many teams 1. seeing him as the top back and 2. willing/needing to draft a RB early in a deep RB class. Texans, Dolphins, Chiefs, maybe Bills are only teams I see with an actual need at RB (w/ titans resigning Henry more than likely) and that will change after FA too.
    o Denzel Mims or Justin Jefferson
    Round 3-
    o Willie Gay
    Round 4-
    o Hakeem Adenji
    o -Winfield (as the slot)
    Round 5-
    o Charle Taumoepeau

    • TomLPDX

      I’m not letting Ursua walk, I think he has more upside than Moore.

      • TomLPDX

        Meant to say release…he’s on his rookie deal

      • bigten

        I wasnt implying letting Ursua go. I like Ursua as well. Tlock, Metcalf, JJ/MM, Ursua, David Moore as the 5 WOs.
        Dline would be heavy with adding all those, in my head i was thinking Ogbah/Griffen. EIther or.

        • TomLPDX

          I realized that after I posted my first response. Sorry bro!

          It would be nice if we can get Griffen but I have a feeling he wants to stay in Minn and I believe the Viks do too. What ever is best for his own mental health…sounds like he has a good support system there.

    • JUJUS

      Honestly Think that Denzel Mims sneaks into the 1st round.

      • bigten

        In that case, i another WR will fall to us there, be it Aiyuk or Jefferson. Personally, my favorite is Jeffereson anyways. But this was trying to be as realistic as i could, while also getting my wishlist.

    • DJ 1/2 Way (Sea/PDX)

      Yes. Very nice. Tayor late would be good, but I would rather go Oline early and CEH from LSU later. 3rd? Fourth would be ideal. Barry sanders with better receiver skills. He never fumbled in college!

      Yards after contact is nice, but it the defenders can not contact you that is even better. Magic spin moves. CEH from LSU!

      • DJ 1/2 Way (Sea/PDX)

        , but if the defenders…..

    • GoHawksDani

      Clowney + Beasley + Ogbah + Griffen + Calais + Fant would at least cost like 63m
      You might be able to do it with CAP manipulations, but it could bite hard in a couple of years

  21. Madmark

    My draft so far:
    27 Isaiah Wilson for RT.
    We know Germain Ifedi going out the door but will we retain George Fant. I would love to sign Fant to a 4 year deal to play right tackle and let Browne play this year and maybe next. He would be backup to left tackle spot automatically if an injury happens. There will be growing pains here in his first year due to his college X.P. . He is a monster but at times getting his upper body in coordination with his lower body is something he needs to work on. That was what I saw watching the drills at the combine. I believe by the end of his 2nd year he could be a pro bowler or damn close. This is the guy that they spent 2 1st round draft picks to get with Carpenter (who was all ways a guard) and Ifedi.
    57 & 64 I believe is 1 will be a trade with a 3rd next year to get a Campbell and the other would be a WR or Bryant, TE. Who It is I still searching but I’m sure its a target for RW.
    100 Nick Harris We need a center to backup Britt for a year. Britt is expensive but I just can’t see him in the future, and I can say the same for Joey Hunt. The 1st one to touch the ball in a game is the center. I love to get Cesar Ruiz in here but we just don’t have the draft capital.
    130 A. J. Dillion Big, Physical, and a perfect prospect for Seattle. There is so much this guy can do if you use and develop his talents. Carson needs a breather this guy comes in and now you can be just as physical that hits like a Linebacker. He never really block would need work and with penny probably on pup list we need another RB.
    143 This is a CB pick and bringing competition. I just haven’t looked so deep.
    154 I’m looking at Trey Adams OT not sure if he drops this far may have to grab him in 143. This is taking a chance on a long shot at tackle position.
    214 I have someone in mind but it could change.
    I went heavy with OL and that was easy. Seattle Offensive was alright last year but they were all injured at the end of the year. They are getting older and this is the draft to restock and move forward. Hunt, Posiac, Roos, Ifedi, and maybe Fant might be gone next year. We need some young blood in this OL that doesn’t cost an arm and a leg since we will be using FA to fix the defense.

  22. Donny Henson

    Hey Rob, What was Jarran Reed’s Pressure Win Percentage in 2018 when he had the 10.5 sack season?

    • Rob Staton

      Don’t know — I only have the numbers I posted

  23. Trevor

    If the Hawks are unable to sign any of the 3 big pass rushers because the market gets crazy
    Clowney, Armstead or Fowler. There is still some hope. One option I think that is both realistic and possible.

    -Trade a 3rd this year and 4th next year for Campbell and then sign him to a 2 year extension to reduce the cap hit
    – Sign Robert Quinn (3yrs /36 mil)
    -Sign Emanuel Ogbah (3yrs /25 mil)
    -Sign Jarran Reed (1yr /$10 mil ) prove it deal
    -Draft Raekwon Davis with one of the 2nd round picks

    2020 DT (Reed, Ford, Mone, Davis)
    DE ( Campbell, Ogbah, Green, Collier, Quinn)

    That would be an awesome DL for 2020 IMO.

    • Eburgz

      3 years 25 million is a major investment for Ogbah.

      I want E. Griffen. Regardless of what happens with clowney I think he’s a great option.

    • GoHawksDani

      Not too high on Quinn, but change him to a much cheaper Beasley or for similar deal Griffen and I’m good with this scenario. Not ideal, but it might work

  24. Pearedu

    Joshua Uche Is going to be a BEAST , mark my words.
    Hope the seahawks draft him.
    Same with :
    – Jeremy Chinn
    – Devon Hamilton
    – Denzel Mims
    – Van Jefferson
    – Jabari Zuniga

    hope we draft some of these.

    • Trevor

      Really like the List.

      I am big Uche fan as well. He would be a great SAM in our scheme.

    • Rob Staton

      I wish I saw a bit more ‘beast’ on tape to be honest.

  25. Sea Mode

    Good rundown on some of the negatives of the proposed CBA from the players’ point of view:

  26. Sea Mode


    Ian Rapoport
    · 8m

    The deal is tentatively agreed to and is expected to be processed at the start of the league year: The #Chargers are trading LT Russell Okung to the #Panthers in exchange for standout OL Trai Turner, sources say. A swap of big-time OLs. Nothing is final until it’s official.

    • Coleslaw

      Drafting Gordon and Ekeler again next year I guess lol

    • Lewis

      Was thinking of suggesting trying to deal for Turner. Oh well.

      • Sea Mode

        Still could, if you want. 🤷‍♂️

    • Sea Mode

      Okung turns 32 in October and has one year left on his deal at $13m. He plays LT and went to the Pro Bowl in 2012 and 2017.

      Turner turns 27 in June and has two years left on his deal at $8.9m and $11.5m respectively. He plays G and has been to the Pro Bowl 5 straight seasons.

      Looks like the Chargers are even more likely to go for an OT now.

      • Lewis

        But he won’t cost Chargers that much, I don’t think. Think some of that sticks with Panthers.

  27. Von

    One player I haven’t heard anyone discuss is IOL Danny Pinter from Ball St. Pretty good athlete and would seem like a very good 4-5 round pick, if not later.

    • Von

      I think he can play center

  28. Sea Mode

    For all you Mims fans out there, enjoy the cut-up of Sr. Bowl 1v1s:

    • drewdawg11


      There are quite a few guys who are so tempting in that late first, early second round area. Jonathan Taylor, Denzel Mims, just imagine the offensive firepower. Also, imagine Seahawks Twitter blowing up when Schotty goes 22 personnel for most of the first half. 😂

  29. Eburgz

    Q Jeff has rounded into form as a nice versatile DL. Would be nice if we could resign him on the cheap.

    He started the year off great but I believe he had an injury that slowed him down. Rewatching some of the hawks early games he really makes an impact that we didn’t see down the stretch. I believe he broke his foot in the green bay game so that should suppress his market.

    Reed was playing through an ankle injury most of the season also.

    • TomLPDX

      I’m a QJeff fan. Hope he can keep getting better. Solid player, not flashy, but solid.

  30. Coleslaw

    Thought I’d look back at Gronk’s career stats and I thought it was crazy he only had 1 rush attempt in his career. It was fitting that it was a TD though lol

    • icb12

      Goes down as a rush.. but still a throw and catch.

  31. Eburgz

    Who are the “guys that won’t be there” at the end of round 1 barring a trade up? I think it’s safe to say 15 guys are top 27 locks.

    Top 15 guys that won’t be there:
    Joe Burrow
    Justin Herbert
    Chase Young
    Javon Kinlaw
    Derrick Brown
    CeeDee Lamb
    Jerry Jeudy
    Henry Ruggs
    Tristan Wirfs
    Andrew Thomas
    Mekhi Becton
    Jedrick Wills
    Jeffery Okudah
    Isaiah Simmons
    Grant Delpit?

    Anyone else that we have no shot at getting at pick 27?

    • drewdawg11

      Tua seems to be locked in, despite the injury.

      • Eburgz

        Him, Austin Jackson and AJ Epenesa were all just barely off the list. Idk how anyone could say for certain where Tua goes considering the injury concerns, although I feel he goes top 5.

  32. JJ

    Pauline mailbag ngakoue rumor hawks Give up first and swap second round picks.

    • Rob Staton

      Seen it — will have an article reflecting on this tomorrow morning.

    • Trevor

      why would the Hawks ever make that deal?

      • TomLPDX

        Maybe assumes that we sign Clowney? This would be a pretty decent deal.

        • Simo

          I would think a trade rumor for Ngakoue would assume they couldn’t/wouldn’t resign Clowney and moved on to plan B or C.

          • TomLPDX

            Why would they give up on signing Clowney at this point? If we get both then this is a win for us. If not, we’ll see.

            • Lewis

              My suspicion is that they will make a modest offer to Clowney, but feel comfortable they aren’t going to wind up desperate. OTOH, Ngakoue will have to get paid, and turning around and offering Clowney less would be insulting (regardless of difference in sack production).

          • BigSmooth13

            Just to be clear, in this scenario we would swap our first with their 2nd and give up on of our 2nds.

            Wonder if Calais could be thrown in as well?!?

    • Denver Hawker

      I hope that’s the ask and not the offer on the table. Seems reckless and desperate. Very un-Seahawkish

    • BobbyK

      Would be nice to somehow get Campbell in the deal if they’re making a trade with Jax.

      • Rob Staton


        Throw in a 2021 third. We’ll get it back for Ifedi and/or Clowney.

        • Von

          Great point. Get er done John!

        • Von


          If they could get Campbell in the deal as you mentioned. Is it realistic to extend Campbell for an additional year? If so, what would be a realistic 2020 cap hit for both? I know if can be “funny” money the 1st year, but what do you think?

          • Rob Staton

            I’m not sure — but I’d be more tempted to manager the others’ year one hit and keep Campbell on a one year deal initially.

    • Zeke

      Why would they give up Clowney+a high draft pick for him? Unless they can afford both maybe? Ngakoue is only 2 years younger.

      • Zeke

        If Clowney had the talent Ngoukoue had around him last season, he’d have the same amount of sacks but with a highter pressure %.

  33. drewdawg11

    Basically we have 2 seconds, one is higher than the two that we had, and they get Yannick. I wonder if 47 is high enough to get the guy we want.

  34. drewdawg11

    Also, I think they’d still try to keep JC, which would be the only reason they wouldn’t want to get Calais as well. Salary of two guys structured correctly? Not so bad. All three? People are being cut.

    • Jake

      Hey Rob – did you see Matthew Berry’s note that NYG is interested in moving Evan Engram? What would be reasonable deal Hawks could make there? Young, talented pass catcher who can play in slot as well as in line.

      • Rob Staton

        Would need to be high I think to interest NYG. Probably too high for Seattle. I’d guess round two.

  35. Coleslaw

    Trade 27 and 59 for 42 and Ngakoue? I do that trade in a heartbeat beat. Its Ngakoue for a 1st, and we move up in the 2nd. No brainer on our end. If that is his market with the tag&trade situation, we should take advantage of that 100%.

    • Coleslaw

      This scenario is very unlikely but just for fun, what if Jacksonville was really desperate to create cap space and we got this trade plus Campbell for #59 also?

      • Coleslaw

        Sorry #64*

      • Yimba

        Thank god you are not our GM lol.

        • Coleslaw

          This is how you get aggressive lol. What do you propose we do?

          • Von

            I’m with you Coleslaw! I’m not sure why Yimba wouldn’t like this? You still retain pick 42 and all draft capital after that and get Yannick & Calais? Sign me up. You can use 42 to pick someone that falls, or trade back and pick up some more picks. If went into this offseason and someone told you, with the first 3 picks in our draft you could have Yannick, Valais and say, Ruiz, Reagor, Davis etc…. I think would take that.

      • Coleslaw

        It would be like drafting Ngakoue at 27 and Campbell at 64 while moving up from 59 to 42 for your first pick. Of course you have to pay them though.

        Clowney would probably be out, but we could probably fit another FA in like Beasley, Irvin, Addison, Ogbah. Go OT at 42 and BPA from there on.

        • Von

          I know Yannick turned down $19/yr from Jax, but could that be because Jax is a dumpster fire? Would he take 4/72 w/ 54 guaranteed to play on the Seahawks? No state tax like Florida. I think it might be possible.

          • Rob Staton

            I get the sense if Jacksonville offered to rename the team the ‘Ngakoue’s’ on top of the $19m he’d still say no.

    • Yimba

      Personally I’d say hell no to this. Give up a 1st AND have to pay him almost 20 mill. No thanks. If we are trading a first I’d rather go for von miller

    • Nick

      It just doesn’t seem (I realize I may be wrong here) that sustainable of a strategy.

      • Coleslaw

        Well yeah, it’s all about winning the superbowl this year. That is the goal. We have a window opening, PCJS are not going to sit back and watch year 1 of that go to waste.

        • Nick

          That just doesn’t seem like a Win Forever move…We have a bigger window than just one year. Three years probably seems more realistic.

          • Greg Haugsven

            I would do the trade for Ngakoue and would also want Campbell but not for 64. At this poi t they are re building so I would do the Campbell part for a 4th.

            Seahawks get:

            Pick 42

            Jaguars get:

            Pick 27
            Pick 59
            4th rounder

            We still have 42 and 64 for an OL and a WR.

        • Greg Haugsven

          Miller would be great but they arent trading him as they just paid big dollars for a corner. Plus Miller is 31 and Ngakoue is 24. This wouldnt hurt our future one bit.

  36. Madmark

    I have 4 picks for 27. Isaiah Wilson RT, Cesar Ruiz C, Denzel Mimms WR, Jonathon Taylor RB if I’m picking here I think I can get one of these guys?

  37. Dong

    I think they need to resign Clowney to contend. I wonder if they get concerned in the $22-25M range that they’d have too much tied up in a single DL and it could (a) make them uncompetitive if he gets injured or (b) limit their ability to sign other players along the line to balance. With Reed and Jefferson to be signed or replaced and the obvious need for an end / LEO opposite Clowney, there are holes.

    It does seem that in the past they’ve favored a group of DL on high value contracts. I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about Beasley, Irvin, Quinn, Griffen, Fowler, etc — that’s what’s obviously available. Not very satisfying, though. They had to go that route last year with Ansah. I think the days of finding DL contract value like Bennett & Avril have passed in the NFL. I have a hard time piecing together a line from those possibilities that makes me think they’d get pressure with 4.

    I wonder if they could fill the gaps in the interior DL via draft & lower cost FA, resign Clowney, and perhaps fill out the LEO with a trade. I keep coming back to the idea of Von Miller opposite Clowney. Probably wishful thinking.

    Calais Campbell would be an incredible addition, but I feel the bigger hole to fill is LEO.

    I have a hard time building a line without Clowney from the options available.

    • Aaron’s bostrom

      I really wanna keep Clowney, but if Ngoque doesn’t cost a first and is cheaper, pairing him w Griffin could be a nice option.

  38. Greg Haugsven

    What I read about a potential trade for Ngakoue was either a second round pick (presumably 59) or a swap of 27 and 42. Nothing about 27 and 59 for Ngakoue and 42.

    • Von

      Even better. More ammo

    • Greg Haugsven

      Actually I think I read it wrong as its confusing but it said a second rounder and “possibly” a swap of 27 for 42. I would do the swap if Campbell was involved.

  39. Eburgz

    Dane B. Mock draft on the athletic

    1. Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
    The idea of Burrow having the leverage to dictate his landing spot is an interesting wrinkle. But it would be a major upset if he isn’t the starting quarterback for the Bengals this season in Cincinnati. The two sides met in Indianapolis, which should be the start of a productive partnership.

    2. Washington Redskins – Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State
    As expected, the buzz at the combine is the Redskins are moving forward with Dwayne Haskins as the quarterback of the future in Washington. Could they receive a trade offer from a quarterback-needy team that is too good to pass up? Possibly. But the most likely scenario is they stay put and draft the difference-making pass rusher.

    3. Detroit Lions – Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
    This is where the intrigue starts. A trade is possible involving Tua Tagovailoa, but Detroit is in a great spot if they stay put, presumably choosing between Simmons, Jeff Okudah and Derrick Brown. The ideal modern-day defender, Simmons and his athletic, four-down versatility will be highly coveted.

    4. New York Giants – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
    The Giants are in a position to grab an impact defender here, but the chance to upgrade the left tackle position likely takes precedence in the eyes of general manager Dave Gettleman. Becton is a rare prospect with his impressive blend of size, strength and athletic traits.

    5. Miami Dolphins – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
    The Dolphins have done a nice job keeping their intentions close to the vest so far – some around the league believe they will go with Tua while others think it will be Herbert and then others think they will ride Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen in 2020, addressing the quarterback situation in the 2021 NFL Draft.

    6. Los Angeles Chargers – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
    Tagovailoa is the wild card of the draft. Talking to teams in Indianapolis, they are taking a cautious approach, but until they can see him throw on April 9, it is anyone’s guess how high he will be drafted. With the Chargers moving on from Philip Rivers, their quarterback situation is obviously in flux.

    7. Carolina Panthers – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
    Okudah is the prototype at the position, making him a steal outside of the top five picks. He offers the fundamental size, athleticism and coverage awareness required to play cornerback at a high level in the NFL. His character would also be a great fit for what Matt Rhule is looking to build in Carolina.

    8. Arizona Cardinals – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
    The Cardinals locked up left tackle DJ Humphries long term, but the right tackle position remains one of the most significant needs on the roster. Wirfs, who can play either side in the NFL, put his explosiveness and fluid body control on display in Indianapolis, proving why he belongs in the top 10 picks.

    9. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
    With below-average numbers in the vertical (27 inches), broad jump (9-0), three-cone (8.22) and short shuttle (4.79), Brown didn’t have the performance many expected in Indianapolis. However, his tape still makes him one of the better players in this draft class.

    10. Cleveland Browns – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
    The Browns desperately need to upgrade both tackle spots if Baker Mayfield and the offense are going to take a positive step forward in 2020. A right tackle most of his life, Wills has all the traits to be a Pro Bowl left tackle in the league, but there will be some projection involved.

    11. New York Jets – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
    The Jets are expected to be aggressive in free agency on the offensive line, which could ultimately swing the direction in which general manager Joe Douglas goes with this pick. Thomas, who played left and right tackle at Georgia, has some balance issues, but projects as a steady NFL starter.

    12. Las Vegas Raiders – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
    The Raiders are missing the big-play threat on the wide receiver depth chart, something that Lamb would address as a rookie. His football intelligence and YAC skills are qualities that general manager Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden will appreciate.

    13. Indianapolis Colts – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
    A quarterback should not be ruled out here, regardless of whether the Colts sign a veteran like Philip Rivers prior to the draft. But whoever is under center needs more weapons and Jeudy and his electric play speed would fill a substantial need.

    14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
    If Jameis Winston returns to Tampa, it is expected to be a short-term deal, opening the door for the Buccaneers to draft and develop a talent like Love. With his intriguing traits, the Utah State product has the upside that should appeal to head coach Bruce Arians.

    15. Denver Broncos – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
    The Broncos have a budding No. 1 wideout in Courtland Sutton, but adding more speed opposite him would help open the offense. Ruggs has world-class speed and his ability to shift gears puts cornerbacks in a blender, creating passing windows downfield.

    16. Atlanta Falcons – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
    The Falcons need reinforcements on the defensive line, especially on the edges, but also inside where a player like Kinlaw can have an immediate impact. Atlanta went heavy on the offensive line early in last year’s draft and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they do the same this year on the defensive line.

    17. Dallas Cowboys – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
    Henderson has a chance to be drafted in the top 10 so this might be the latest he comes off the board. With Byron Jones destined to reach free agency, cornerback shoots near the top of Dallas’ draft needs. Henderson needs to be a better playmaker at the catch point, but he is a plus athlete with the size to blanket receivers.

    18. Miami Dolphins (via PIT) – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
    The Dolphins don’t have a pass rusher on the roster who threatens opposing offenses and it is a good bet they will look to change that via the draft. Chaisson screams off the edge with speed and energy, which allows him to convert his momentum to power or close the gap when chasing.

    19. Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
    A defensive playmaker has to be high on the Raiders’ wish list in the draft and Queen proved himself to be exactly that this past season, getting better with each game. One of the more explosive players in this draft class, his play speed, physicality and upside will be appealing to Mayock and Gruden.

    20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) – Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
    A former wide receiver, Diggs made the transition to cornerback and isn’t yet a polished player, but his athletic traits and ball skills are highly intriguing. He probably won’t make an immediate splash like Jalen Ramsey, but he has the ingredients of a long-term NFL starter.

    21. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
    The Eagles need an influx of speed and Aiyuk offers just that. An NFL scout said: “That home run acceleration is a nightmare. I’ll be crossing my fingers and toes that he doesn’t end up in our division.”

    22. Buffalo Bills – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
    One of the big winners from combine week, Jefferson had a near-impeccable workout, starting with a 4.43 40-yard dash and ending with an impressive performance with his field work. A sure-handed target who can get open will certainly aid in the development of Josh Allen.

    23. New England Patriots – A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa
    Count Bill Belichick as one of the key decision-makers in the NFL who will trust the tape over subpar combine numbers. And that could potentially help a player like Epenesa, who didn’t shine during the athletic testing in Indianapolis, but his heavy hands and pass rush savvy helps him reach the pocket.

    24. New Orleans Saints – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
    If Vonn Bell leaves in free agency and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson stays in a nickel role, safety becomes a question mark for the Saints. McKinney will have spacing issues in coverage, but he limits mental mistakes, especially vs. the run as a downhill tackler.

    25. Minnesota Vikings – Austin Jackson, OT, USC
    With his athletic upside, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jackson drafted much higher than this. But if he is still available at No. 25, the Vikings should be interested. The offensive line has seemingly been a question mark for the entire Mike Zimmer era, but adding a high-upside tackle like Jackson could help stabilize the front.

    26. Miami Dolphins (via HOU) – Josh Jones, OT, Houston
    In the most top-heavy offensive tackle class in a long time, it would be a surprise if the Dolphins don’t draft one of them in the first round. With five offensive line coaches over his career at Houston, Jones was somewhat of a late bloomer, but he has NFL starting traits.

    27. Seattle Seahawks – Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
    The Seahawks added a TCU defensive lineman in the first round last year (LJ Collier) and they could do it again with Blacklock. If Seattle is unable to re-sign Jarran Reed, defensive tackle immediately becomes one of the more important needs this offseason.

    28. Baltimore Ravens – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
    Although he can be late to sort through things at the line of scrimmage, Murray has nonstop speed with the competitive mentality that pops off the screen. His play style and character would be a great fit in Baltimore.

    29. Tennessee Titans – Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
    If Jack Conklin signs elsewhere, the right tackle position becomes one of the biggest question marks on the roster. Cleveland crushed the combine, showing the athletic skill that matches the tape. The buzz in Indianapolis is he will receive first-round consideration from several teams.

    30. Green Bay Packers – Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin
    A defensive playmaker, Baun emerged as one of the best pass rushers in college football last season. He will move to more of an off-ball role in the NFL where the Packers could unleash his athleticism in coverage and as a blitzer.

    31. San Francisco 49ers – Marlon Davidson, DL, Auburn
    If the 49ers are unable to bring back impending free agent Arik Armstead, they could look to address the defensive line with this pick. Davidson offers inside-outside versatility due to his impressive mix of power and athleticism for a 300-pounder.

    32. Kansas City Chiefs – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
    Although his performance in the national title game didn’t go as planned, Terrell’s combine reminded many why he is considered a first-round caliber player. Not only did he run a great 40 time (4.42), but his positional work was outstanding.

    Will the Bengals pair Baylor WR Denzel Mims with Joe Burrow? (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
    Second round
    33. Cincinnati Bengals – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
    34. Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) – Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri

    35. Detroit Lions – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
    The Lions would love to replicate the success of the 2019 Tennessee Titans, drafting Taylor to fill the Derrick Henry role.

    36. New York Giants – Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State
    37. Los Angeles Chargers – JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
    38. Carolina Panthers – Grant Delpit, FS, LSU
    39. Miami Dolphins – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
    40. Arizona Cardinals – D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
    41. Cleveland Browns – Ashtyn Davis, FS, California
    42. Jacksonville Jaguars – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
    43. Chicago Bears (via LVR) – Kyle Dugger, S, Lenoir-Rhyne
    44. Indianapolis Colts – Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia

    45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
    With Alex Cappa playing well at right guard, Tampa is in solid shape at each offensive line spot except right tackle — that is where Wilson can help.

    46. Denver Broncos – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
    47. Atlanta Falcons – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
    48. New York Jets – Lloyd Cushenberry, OC, LSU
    49. Pittsburgh Steelers – Josh Uche, Edge, Michigan
    50. Chicago Bears – Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame
    51. Dallas Cowboys – Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M
    52. Los Angeles Rams – Terrell Lewis, Edge, Alabama
    53. Philadelphia Eagles – Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois
    54. Buffalo Bills – Curtis Weaver, Edge, Boise State
    55. Atlanta Falcons (via NE) – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
    56. Miami Dolphins (via NO) – Cesar Ruiz, OG/C, Michigan
    57. Houston Texans – Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
    58. Minnesota Vikings – Antoine Winfield, FS, Minnesota
    59. Seattle Seahawks – Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State

    60. Baltimore Ravens – Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado
    Who saw DK Metcalf falling to the 64th pick last year? Shenault could be this year’s version of Metcalf in terms of surprise faller who proves productive as an NFL rookie.

    61. Tennessee Titans – Jacob Eason, QB, Washington
    62. Green Bay Packers – Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
    63. Kansas City Chiefs – Robert Hunt, OG, Louisiana
    64. Seattle Seahawks – KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

    The Browns’ new braintrust will look to bolster the linebacker depth chart in the draft, and may do so with Texas Tech’s Jordyn Brooks.
    Third round
    65. Cincinnati Bengals – Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
    66. Washington Redskins – Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton
    67. Detroit Lions – Raekwon Davis, DL, Alabama
    68. New York Jets (via NYG) – Michael Pittman, WR, USC

    69. Carolina Panthers – James Lynch, DL, Baylor
    Lynch maintains a close relationship with Matt Rhule and if the Panthers don’t address the defensive line in the first two rounds, this pick makes too much sense.

    70. Miami Dolphins – Cam Akers, RB, Florida State
    71. Los Angeles Chargers – Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut
    72. Arizona Cardinals – Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Florida
    73. Jacksonville Jaguars – Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB, Appalachian State

    74. Cleveland Browns – Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech
    With Joe Schobert likely exiting in free agency, the Browns’ new braintrust will look to bolster the linebacker depth chart in the draft.

    75. Indianapolis Colts – Lucas Niang, OT, TCU
    76. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma
    77. Denver Broncos – Matt Hennessy, OC, Temple
    78. Atlanta Falcons – Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah
    79. New York Jets – Darrell Taylor, Edge, Tennessee
    80. Las Vegas Raiders – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
    81. Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) – Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
    82. Dallas Cowboys – Malik Harrison, LB, Ohio State
    83. Denver Broncos (via PIT) – Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming
    84. Los Angeles Rams – Damien Lewis, OG, LSU
    85. Philadelphia Eagles – Jabari Zuniga, Edge, Florida
    86. Buffalo Bills – Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
    87. New England Patriots – Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri
    88. New Orleans Saints – Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
    89. Minnesota Vikings – Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF
    90. Cleveland Browns (via HOU) – Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina
    91. Las Vegas Raiders (via SEA) – Jonathan Garvin, Edge, Miami (Fla.)
    92. Baltimore Ravens – Julian Okwara, Edge, Notre Dame

    93. Tennessee Titans – Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
    On the field, Arnette fits exactly what the Titans covet — a battle-tested corner with the toughness and cover skills to play inside or outside.

    94. Green Bay Packers – Ben Bartch, OT/G, St. John’s (Minn.)
    95. Denver Broncos (via SF) – Jason Strowbridge, DL, North Carolina
    96. Kansas City Chiefs – Van Jefferson, WR, Florida

    • Eburgz

      In this scenario the hawks could have

      R1 OL Isaiah Wilson
      R2 DL Julian Okwara
      R2 WR KJ Hamler
      R3 RB Zach Moss
      R4 DL Rashard Lawrence ?
      R4 CB Michael Ojemudia ?

      alternates In R1-2 range : (Yetur Gross Matos, Jonathan Taylor, Jalen Reagor, Grant Delpit, Kyle Duggar Josh Uche, Raekwon Davis , Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault, Matt Peart, Prince Tega, Jabari Zuniga, Jeremy Chinn)

    • Rob Staton

      Another mock draft that hasn’t got a clue how Seattle operates.

      It takes two minutes to learn.

    • Spencer

      A first round pick, but we get to move up quite a bit in the second.. interesting proposal. I’d be on board only if he’d agree to a reasonable contract which doesn’t seem likely.

      I wonder what the value is on Yannick + Ngakoue? Possibly our first + second, without receiving their second would get it done. Adding those two + re-signing Clowney almost certainly would mean we’d have to cut Britt or structure the contracts very creatively but that is a hell of a defensive line.

      • Bayahawk

        Yannick Ngakoue is one person, not two.

        • Yimba

          he probably meant ngakoue + calias

          • Spencer

            Yes I did, thank you.

  40. WALL UP

    Most here would love to have Campbell on the 2020 roster. But, what if instead of Calais you get Yannick, a “True Leo” that JS & PC have been searching for. They exchange their 1st (27) with JAX’s 2nd pick (42), and also give JAX the 64th pick for Yannick Ngakoue.

    Then, you use that 42nd pick and select Isaiah Wilson and the 59th pick and select Raekwon Davis. That could never happen, could it? Well it just may happen:

    That leaves these picks to fill out the remaining holes on the roster:

    100. Amik Robertson NB/DB
    130. AJ Dillion RB
    143. Kevin Dotson OG
    154. Tyrie Cleveland WR
    214. Tyshun Render DE

    But, that can never happen, right?

    • WALL UP

      Not when you resign Clowney, Reed, Woods, Kendricks & Hunt as well.

      Nine D-Line:
      1. Clowney DE
      2. Ngakoue DE
      3. Green DE
      4. Collier DE
      5. Render DE
      6. Reed DT
      7. Ford DT
      8. Woods DT
      9. Davis DT

      Nine O-Line
      1. Brown/Jones LT
      2. Haynes/Jones LG
      3. Britt/Hunt C
      4. Fluker/Dotson RG
      5. Wilson/Jones RT
      6. Pocic RG/LG/C

    • GoHawksDani

      Clowney – Reed – Davis – Ngakoue DL seems pretty nice
      The depth/rotation with Green + Collier and Poona could be sweet too.

      I like the Brown – Jones – Britt – Fluker – Wilson OL too

      My only issue is that we wouldn’t really get a receiving threat in FA or the draft.

      This could be doable money-wise too.
      Clowney + Ngakoue + Reed probably somewhere: 23, 21, 12 APY (3-4 years)
      We could get their first year hit down to 16, 14, 7 -> 37m and not totally ruin the future
      I might try to trade R4/R5 for an nCB (similar to Coleman…with some experience and good numbers but not too much exp), and draft a WR at #100

  41. Von

    I like this guy. Late round pick that runs a little like Henry and Carson

    • WALL UP

      He has a running style similar Peterson, without the high stepping. He’d be a nice addition to the RB room too.

  42. swedenhawk

    According to PFF, Ngakoue posted a 16% pass rush win rate during the 2017 and 2018 seasons, tied with Melvin Ingram III for 19th best in the league. And it looks like he wasn’t in the top ten last season. Looking forward to your article, Rob!

  43. Jeff Chen

    Panthers just traded Turner for Okung, maybe we can trade Penny for McCaffrey while they are still drunk?

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