Pete Carroll said the right things on KJR
A reassuring listen
Pete Carroll’s comments on KJR yesterday were revealing, positive and worth paying attention to.
Here’s a brief summary:
— Carroll called offensive tackle ‘a spot of real concern’. To me his comments contained a sense of urgency, like he knew they had to get something sorted quickly. That’s understandable given both spots need filling. My interpretation is I think they’re going to make some moves pre-draft. I think he wants to fix this with signings. That could mean Duane Brown, Eric Fisher and/or Daryl Williams.
— When asked what other areas they needed to address he said he felt it was important that they continue to work on the pass rush (“and the coverage part of it”). He then made reference to the staff additions. Remember — Jake Heaps said on 710 Seattle Sports that Sean Desai had been persuaded to come to Seattle in part because they would make personnel improvements. So far, they have not. Carroll directly referred to Uchenna Nwosu as someone who can work in the rotation. That was telling to me — because Nwosu’s role was described in a fairly modest way. He finished his answer on improvements by stating, clearly, he wanted ‘the whole thing’ (pass rush) upscaled and upgraded and that it will be a ‘point of focus’.
— Carroll spoke about having a whole bunch of picks in 2023 and how that could impact what they do this year. I took that to mean they know this isn’t a great quarterback class. They know next year looks a lot better. They have the ammunition to be pro-active in 12 months and not feel like they need to force things this year.
— I found this whole interview incredibly reassuring. A sense of urgency to add at tackle, making the pass rush better is the focal point and no reference to adding more at quarterback when talking about immediate needs. As someone who hopes the Seahawks pump their draft resources into the defensive front seven, this interview was music to my ears. It made me think they are going to sign offensive tackles and will prioritise the pass rush with their top picks.
As I’ve said a few times now, my ‘Plan A’ would be one of Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at #9. If they’re not available, ‘Plan B’ would be Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr. I’m not against Jordan Davis either. At #40 I’d take a linebacker — one of Channing Tindall, Leo Chenal, Quay Walker or Damone Clark ideally.
At #41 I’d like to be in a position to keep your options open. A trade down in that spot feels useful. You might need to target an edge rusher if you weren’t able to land Johnson or Thibodeaux. Yet you’ve got so much value and depth in that range — it’d be a great opportunity to simply take the best player available. What a luxury that extra second is this year.
If the Seahawks can come out of this draft feeling like they have a terrific defensive platform for the future — it will be the perfect start to the rebuild. It would set Carroll up to play the brand of football he wants to play. They can go into the 2023 draft excited and confident that the future at the quarterback position will be readily available.
This was a very encouraging interview, I thought.
The Seahawks are determined to keep D.K. Metcalf
There wasn’t even a hint of doubt. Carroll made it clear — they’re focused on keeping Metcalf and want to sign him to a new contract this year.
In light of Tyreek Hill re-setting the salary market today, there’s little reason for talks not to progress over the next few weeks.
It’s unlikely anyone else is going to re-set the market now. So Metcalf and the Seahawks have to balance out where he fits into a salary hierarchy that has seen the two best players at the position get paid major new money.
I doubt Carroll would’ve talked in the way he did yesterday if he wasn’t willing to pay Metcalf the kind of money the top receivers are getting. So now it comes down to finding common ground. I think they will. This should be fairly straight forward, provided Metcalf is equally motivated to get a deal done.
It’s possible Kansas City and Green Bay make a push for him and that could turn his head. They have the stock to make an attractive offer to the Seahawks.
He would probably need to push for a trade though. I get the sense he likes it in Seattle and might be willing to make his fortune with the team who drafted him.
I do think it’s a situation Seattle needs to address before the draft though. They need to get two offensive tackles signed and then focus on Metcalf.
Either get that extension done — or see what’s out there via trade.
Given the Hill and Davante Adams moves — you’re looking at a first and second round pick if you deal him. I’m not sure you want to trade away a very talented player at a great age when you’ve got money to burn. This will be up to the player and how talks go.
Don’t fall for the hype
Twitter exploded yesterday with people sharing a video of Malik Willis throwing at his pro-day. One throw in particular gained a lot of traction. Willis did the usual trick that quarterbacks like to do these days — running one way, throwing off-balance across your body and launching it downfield. It’s a throw made popular by Zach Wilson and everyone seems to copy it now.
People were reacting to the throw declaring he could/should be the #2 pick to Detroit. Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle were all mentioned too.
The hype train had truly left the station.
Unfortunately, so had everyone’s rational thinking.
Pro-days are the single most overrated event for quarterbacks. They mean absolutely nothing. Willis being able to throw that football in a pair of shorts and a T-shirt, with no defense on the field, means nothing.
If you asked Drew Lock to copy that exact same throw tomorrow in Seattle’s practise facility, he’d be able to do it.
You never watch a pro-day and make any kind of serious judgement. At the absolute best it acts as confirmation.
Zach Wilson’s tape at BYU last year was really good. When he excels at his pro-day, it’s just another tick in a box. The Jets liked him before the event, they liked him after.
The same goes for Willis, albeit in reverse.
His issues don’t suddenly go away because he throws that pass or because he was wonderfully charming in his press conference afterwards. I wish him all the very best in his career and hope he goes as high as possible. The truth is though — he too often makes one read and if it isn’t there he bails out of the pocket to run. He refuses to throw over middle. Under pressure he panics and tries to scramble — which is why he absorbed 51 sacks in 2021 alone. He misses wide open receivers due to impatience and letting his eyes drop. His throwing technique (release, ball-pat, non-squared shoulders and inconsistent base) will lead to turnovers.
All yesterday did was confirm he’s a strong-armed player who can sling it.
Please, let’s not fall into the trap of overreacting to any of the pro-days.
I appreciate Willis will probably go in the first round. As I’ve been saying for a while now — the Steelers tend to telegraph who they like. If Mike Tomlin played poker, he’d accidentally hold his cards facing the rest of the table. He basically attached himself to T.J. Watt and Devin Bush at their pro-days. He’s done the same with Willis and took him to dinner on Monday night.
I’m convinced one way or another the Steelers will take him — either at #20 or with a move into the teens.
Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral also have a shot to go in the second half of round one.
I’ll come back to my conversation with Scot McCloughan though. Three quarterbacks will go in round one and all three should go in round three. That was McCloughan’s assessment. I agree with him.
And nothing that happens at a pro-day is going to change that.
I don’t understand the Charles Cross hype
He’s often mocked to Seattle at #9. Some people are talking about him in the top five, for pity’s sake.
We’re talking about a player who is a modest athlete with average size. He’s only 6-4 1/2 in height and 307lbs. His testing was weird — combining a good 9-4 broad jump with a poor 26 inch vertical. His agility testing was not good (4.61 short shuttle, 7.88 three cone). He ran well in the forty (4.95) but not as well as, say, Trevor Penning (4.89).
Penning is also bigger, more explosive and had better shuttle and three cone times.
Nothing about Cross’ physical profile screams ‘top-10 pick’. Neither does anything about his profile indicate he’d be a key target for Seattle.
Technically he doesn’t bend his knees well enough, I think he’s very much a pass-pro mirror specialist and not a complete blocker.
I don’t think he’ll be a top-10 pick, I don’t think he’ll end up in Seattle and I’m confused by the way people are assessing him.
If they end up taking a tackle with their top pick, the more likely answer is Trevor Penning — who at least has a profile they’ve shown to be interested in. In round two — it could be someone like Abraham Lucas (if he lasts) or Tyler Smith.
Some thoughts on the top-10
I’m going to continue to project no quarterbacks go early.
I think the pass rushers and offensive linemen will come off the board very quickly.
I think the top-five is pretty much locked in as Aidan Hutchinson, Ikem Ekwonu, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal (in no particular order).
Sauce Gardner has enough buzz to consider too but I think he is more likely to go #7 to the Giants.
I think the Chargers are very likely to aggressively move up and target Jordan Davis. Carolina at #6 would be a good trade partner because they have no picks in rounds 2-3 and might be able to move into the teens to target a quarterback. Alternatively, O-line seems likely for the Panthers at #6.
The Giants and Falcons scare me from a Seahawks perspective because both will be in the market for a pass rusher. I hope New York will take Sauce Gardner. I hope Atlanta will either convince themselves to reach for a quarterback, will trade down with a team like the Chargers or will take a much-needed receiver.
I think they’re less likely to take a wide-out at #8 simply because the depth is so strong at the position, they can easily wait until day two.
I’m intrigued to know what Seattle will do if the top edge rushers are gone at #9. That could be a situation where they move down. As mentioned, I’d seriously consider Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr at #9. Do they pivot to O-line?
Based on what Carroll said in his interview earlier — pass rush and corner feel like two areas that will be a big target early in the draft.
The two quarterbacks I’d keep an eye on for Seattle
Jack Coan and Kaleb Eleby at the start of day three.
Coan has technical ability that matches or surpasses the names expected to go early. You see him going through reads, playing on time and he was very productive at Notre Dame (with a ‘field-tilting’ win against Virginia Tech). He has some moments where ball-placement is an issue and while he’s a better athlete than some people think — he’s no threat as a dynamic runner. He can extend plays and throw on the run though. I like his arm strength, his base and his ability to go through progressions.
Eleby impressed in 2020 when throwing to Dee Eskridge and that maybe stuck in the mind for Seattle. He never really took a step forward in 2021 but he does a good job throwing off-platform. I think he has better arm talent than some are suggesting and he’s considered a strong leader with untapped potential.
I think either of these two could be thrown into the competition with Drew Lock, Jacob Eason and (eventually) Geno Smith. They might bypass the position in the draft, however, if they bring in Baker Mayfield as competition instead.
Jake Heaps made a great point yesterday. You can’t rush the rebuild, especially at the quarterback position. With Carroll talking about their bounty of picks in 2023, and with good options like Will Levis and Bryce Young set to be available, this is a year to build your foundation and be patient.
I’m increasingly confident they will be.
Some extra thoughts on #41
Again, I want a defensive heavy draft. Either a defensive end or defensive tackle at #9 (although I’m open to Derek Stingley too, as mentioned). A linebacker is a must at #40 because of this class. Then at #41, there are options.
If you take Wyatt or Stingley at #9, I think you target someone like Ole Miss pass rusher Sam Williams to fill your pass rusher need. If you take one of Johnson or Thibodeaux at #9 — it perhaps opens things up a bit. The top defensive tackles will likely all be gone by #41.
The great thing about this draft is it’s so rich in alternatives. If Abraham Lucas is there, he would be an exceptional pick. Ditto Cam Jurgens or Cole Strange. There are a few potential options at cornerback depending on what they’re looking for (but I still think this class is set up to add talent between rounds 4-7 as they’re known to do).
I don’t think a receiver at #41 would be a great investment given you’re supposed to be building foundations — but the likes of Kevin Austin Jr, Christian Watson and maybe even Jameson Williams warrant a conversation.
As much as some would hate it — I think a running back makes sense if you’re looking for non-defensive options. I’m not massively high on Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker in that spot. I also appreciate that they have Jonathan Stewart-level physical profiles. If the Seahawks are serious about their running game, they can’t rely on the often-injured Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson.
Investing in a player with Stewart-level talent, at a cost of $1.5-2.5m a year over four years, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. They have to be able to run the ball properly.
Speaking of Cam Jurgens by the way — a big time blog favourite who was massively underrated in the media for far too long — he jumped a 33.5 inch vertical and a 9-11 broad at his pro-day. Then he ran a 7.19 three cone — the fastest ever by a center (beating Jason Kelce).
He’s now confirmed as a 3.34 TEF tester with a weighted TEF of 102.5.
He also has ideal size and +33 inch arms.
He is going to be an absolute stud.
Could they target Daniel Faalele?
I’m not a huge fan. However, the Seahawks had a visit with Trent Brown who is 6-8 and 380lbs. Faaelele was 6-8 and 384lbs at the combine.
For me he’s too big. There’s no need for him to be 384lbs. On tape he moves surprisingly well and admittedly there are some pass-pro snaps or plays where he moves his feet and you forget he weighs as much as he does. Yet his height and size is a disadvantage because when he loses leverage he’s often dumped on his backside. He struggles with balance and re-setting because he’s so heavy and when you get underneath him it’s like watching a tree being felled.
At the Senior Bowl far smaller defenders like Myjai Sanders sent him to the ground and he had some ugly 1v1 reps because they gained the advantage with pad-level.
The link to Brown suggests, however, they would consider an enormous right tackle. And that’s what Faalele is. If nothing else, I suppose, he’s a wall of a man to get around. With tight end help it could be especially difficult.
I’d like to see him shift 20-30lbs personally and try to become Orlando Brown Jr. There’s no need to be as big as he is.
If you missed it yesterday check out my appearance on 750 ‘The Game’ in Portland — for a healthy dose of draft energy and positivity…
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In 2010 when Seattle had tackle and QB concerns. Schneider said he wanted the O-line figured out before he got a QB. Even in 2011 many people thought they should reach for a QB and they didn’t. This draft feels similar. I believe they will take a run blocking tackle, either Ekwonu at #9 or Penning/Tyler Smith after a trade back. I love the upside of Tyler Smith if they can get a vet to help him along.
Rob, don’t you think Atlanta will go WR first? With Ridley out for the year and Gage signing with TB, their #1 receiver is Patterson at RB. Maybe they think they can wait until the 2nd, but it seems like it’s a massive need for them.
I don’t. As noted in the piece, there are so many receivers in this class and plenty in R2-3 can start immediately.
Pitts basically functions as Atlanta’s WR1.
Best available front 7 defenders with the first 3 Hawk picks.
If a shutdown corner is on Pete’s radar, take him.
I want a great return on the draft investment with the top picks. Investment in areas of need.
I wonder if a shutdown corner is ever on Pete’s radar? I’m less enamored with his purported skills with DB’s but somehow someway he gets guys from all over the shop to be serviceable year in year out.
I’m not entirely opposed to it sauce/stingley. I also think there’s some very good options in round 3 and four.
Pete was also more forthcoming about the Russel Wilson saga discussing it much more clearly that he and JS did at the league year presser.
I took this and the comments you highlighted to be a show that he knows he needs to be more transparent with fans and media. I think there is some trust lost even among the most faithful and he knows it.
It was refreshing to hear him be so candid. In the end, I believe him when he said he wasn’t the one who wanted the trade. I’m sure John was whispering in his ear, reassuring him that they could rebuild/retool with the draft haul.
However, when it really comes down to it, Russ did force his way out. But, it was due to Pete and John’s inept drafting, FA acquisitions and cap management that forced Russ’s hand.
Russ saw the future, and it was bleak.
John and russ seem like lowkey petty people to me and I could honestly see Seattle drafting two tackles early.
My preference, which is drafting a defense where i don’t fast forward on my dvr every snap they are on the field, oline wise is: penning and a center.
I could see Seattle being intrugued by lump of a man Fallale but for me he’s barely draftable.
Green did well and he is young for 2nd contract why hawks are not interested? Not scheme fit?
I don’t think he’s a scheme fit. He seems a little small to play End in a 3-4. And he’s not a linebacker for that scheme.
Regardless how I feel about trying to retain your drafted players when they are young and utilizing them better Seattle has no money for anything besides a Tackle.
Doesn’t Baltimore run a 3-4 though? We also kicked him inside a lot, and he played 5-technique for us (same as in many 3-4 systems). I think it’s more of a “see what your market is and we’ll try and match it,” type situation. I think their ok letting him walk though.
I’m legitimately unaware of what the Ravens run. It’s probably 3-4 that feels right but I don’t know since the ngata, lewis, et al days are gone.
Isn’t jefferson the 5T now?
It probably is let the market bear itself out season.
Having “lots of picks” next year, could also be a hint that they are willing to use them to, say, move up in this draft to get a guy they really want.
Perhaps an edge, like Johnson,or KT?
That’s not what he said though
He said having picks next year shapes decisions they’ll make with their picks this year
Meaning they had opportunities in 2023
Don’t the Chargers need a RT as well?
The Chargers biggest need by far is a DT that can stop the run. That team will win it all next year if they are able to stop the run. They gave upon 4.6 YPC last year and 22 TDS.
Justaguy is absolutely right. I’m baffled by the sudden outbreak of “Chargers trade up for Jordan Davis” mocks. I get that they sucked vs. the run last season, but a cursory glance at their depth chart is all that’s needed to know that trade isn’t going to happen. They aren’t “one piece away”.
The Chargers have nothing at RG and RT. Storm Norton – a practice squad guy last seen getting his soul eaten by Maxx Crosby – is literally the only warm body on the right side of the line.
RT is a Code Red need with the draft fast approaching and FA options down to junkyard scraps like Darryl Williams, Marcus Cannon, Billy Turner, and Nate Solder.
The needs don’t stop there. The Chargers have two nice CBs in JC Jackson and Asante Samuel Jr., but a third corner is badly needed, preferably a tall one. Jackson and Samuel are both 5-10 in a division where Hunter Renfrow (5-10) is the only remaining starting WR under 6-1 now that Tyreek is gone.
Overall roster depth is also an issue, in both quality and quantity.
In today’s NFL, you’re as good as your WR3. The Chargers can do much better than Jalen Guyton. (Wouldn’t Jameson Williams running under Herbert rainbows be a nice late-season pick-me-up?)
A high-quality backup RB to complement and spell the undersized Ekeler is needed.
EDGE depth behind Bosa and Mack (aging/injured) is a must.
The nickel/dime CBs and safeties are little more than special-teamers. Upgrades are needed.
The Chargers have only six draft picks, with no 2nd-rounder. Trading up for Davis essentially means Davis alone would be their draft. They can’t afford that luxury. Besides, they no longer need Jordan Davis.
While nobody was looking, the Chargers already bolstered their run defense during free agency with the signing of Brandon Staley fave Sebastian Joseph-Day (3 years/$15 MIL guaranteed) and sturdy veteran NT Austin Johnson (2 years/$14 MIL). Johnson has already been anointed the two-down, run-plugging NT, while Joseph-Day had a 72.0 PFF run-defense grade under Staley in 2020, before missing 10 games to injury last season.
If anything, the Chargers should be looking to trade down come draft day.
Maybe lose the bafflement
It’s literally been reported by the #1 draft insider in the business that they’re considering trading up for Davis
But I guess you know better 👀
Pauline is the best, but his word isn’t gospel. If it were, he would have nailed more than six picks in his final 2021 mock draft. The only non-top 5 layup picks he predicted correctly were ARI/Z. Collins and PIT/N. Harris. Both were open secrets.
Teams are “considering” a lot of things. You of all people should know to take reports with a grain of salt this time of year.
Jordan Davis is a freak show, but stepping into the NFL he’s a two-down run-plugging NT. That’s it. The Chargers addressed that role in free agency, and not cheaply. They have nothing at RG and RT, need a third CB and WR, better LBs, and have no 2nd-round pick. Trading up for Davis makes little sense, regardless of what a guy who all but promised me the Jets would take Azeez Ojulari at 34 last year says.
Also, why the snottiness? I’m just talking football and everything I said was reasonable. Your response reads like haughty Twitter snark. Emoji and everything.
Who said his word was gospel?
He’s reported it as a distinct possibility. I’ve reflected it in some articles.
You said:
I’ve explained why your bafflement is misplaced
Pauline reports what he hears and his words have heft. Teams know this, so anything he reports could be a case of him being used as a smoke conduit just as easily as it could be a team’s true intentions. I’m sure Pauline has a deluxe smoke detector at this point, but it isn’t flawless.
When hammering out a mock draft, Pauline’s reports must be taken into consideration, but they also have to pass the sniff test. What I’m baffled by is that someone would come to the conclusion that this particular report passes the sniff test after taking into consideration the Chargers’ free agency moves, roster construct, and available draft currency. It seems illogical to me.
Mr. Bitter, let me just give you a little piece of advice.
This community has one of the best comments sections around. We don’t interact in the following way:
You — I am baffled why you’ve projected this
Me — because one of the best insiders in the game reported it
You — I’m still baffled
Me — (Repeats why there’s no reason to be baffled)
You — Well, errr, well, I guess that insider is being fed duff information and I’m going to act like I know better than Tony’s sources
1. Tony is one of the most reliable, proven, spot on reporters in the business. When he says something, I pay attention. He’s not guaranteed anything. He’s reported it though, so I’ll talk about it. If you’re still baffled by that, I don’t know what to say.
2. Know when to take an ‘L’.
Alas, Mr. Bitter didn’t know how to take an L
We’ll push on regardless
Safeties are little more than special teamers???? In what world is Derwin James just a “special teamer”? The kid is a stud and averaged 111 tackles in two years not including his injured 2020 season.
What’s stopping them from getting Calais Campbell?
Very revealing by Pete. Hard to determine smoke screen season with the old Pete who used to announce his needs to the media and follow through. I hope they go after Fisher, Williams and Brown but also Check in on Becton and Jackson for maybe a 4 or 5th next year. Lucas in the second or Walker in the 3rd is ok to me too.
I do think Desai and Hurtt have had some input in regard to type. Burns is a cover corner. Nwosu looks like an outside linebacker rusher. Jefferson looks like he could be an 5 tech. I really do believe they take pass rush early. Johnson gotta be on the radar. Reading his comments on Pete I think both want it to happen. Pro days are starting to start the hype train on a few guys. I saw Cross and Willis’s name quite a bit yesterday. It will only take a couple to buy into some guys to ensure Johnson being available at 9
If all the R1 quality rushers are off the board by pick #9, we can try to fleece the Stealers by moving down, since they seem desperate for Malik.
2023 1st + 2022#20
Nice assessment, as always! Pete and John better get the move on if they want to sign any remaining quality players, as the pool is emptying fast!
Any chance of a reunion with Dunlap? He proved late last year he’s still got a bit left.
When they released him I checked into it a bit but he’s primarily played DE in a 4-3 his whole career.
If he was younger he has killer size for either scheme but I’m not sure at his age how he would hold up against the run or in a more collapse the pocket role.
Assuming Q was right when he signaled a move to a 3-4 concept, we will need more LBs in base package. Among the LB candidates out there in the draft, who do we think would fare best as an OLB as far as pass rush off the edge goes? I’m guessing Brooks takes over at MLB.
With the injury, could Ojabo fall to the 40s? Make it another situation like Darrel Taylor.
Dayo Odengibo (sp?) had a similar draft grade last year, had the same injury, and dropped to pick 56 in a relatively weaker draft (i think, but maybe not).
Love the idea of getting him at 41 if he’s there.
Per Pauline. Hawks playing this perfectly for the time being:
Not sure why any team would absorb anymore than $2m of his contract. Its probably the best the Browns can do.
This is starting to feel like something the Seahawks could make work.
Whatever they end up paying Mayfield, they could cut a chunk out and push it to 2023 with a void year.
They currently have about $93m in 2023. $2-4m wouldn’t hurt that much.
I would like to thank you Rob for all the content you have provided this offseason, your detailed thoughts and analysis, and most of all the enthusiasm that you consistently display in everything you do. You have really made “The Rebuild” a special place for us fans to read about, learn and discuss not just the Seahawks, but the NFL in general!
I agree 100%. After the Russ trade i was disappointed but series of articles provided much needed clarity. Thanks for your endless work.
Some lazy people keep publishing mock draft
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-packers-nab-2-receivers-in-round-1-after
Ian Rapoport: Another blockbuster coming? Despite an offer from the #Chiefs that would make superstar Tyreek Hill one of the highest-paid receivers, extension talks have stalled and Kansas City has now given Hill’s agent permission to seek a trade, sources tell me and @TomPelissero.
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1506648107970449416?s=20&t=pupiFKfrGPUpg5pLJIo0bw
Adam Schefter: Jets and Dolphins are in serious talks to trade for Chiefs’ WR Tyreek Hill, per league sources. Hill and Chiefs are mulling what to do but Hill’s time in KC looks like it could be coming to an end.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1506650156623704064?s=20&t=pupiFKfrGPUpg5pLJIo0bw
I think the Chiefs will be fine without Tyreek Hill. They signed JuJu Smith Schuster, they also have a fast WR in Mecole Hardman, and they can get a good WR in round 1 or round 2.
The money to keep high end WR is out of whack. I feel like the WR position is as easy a position to replace, through the draft, as RB is. There are now so many good WR coming out every year.
super interesting. Tyreek is such a unique game-wrecker. Really interesting strategic decision if the Chiefs decide to move a guy like him from a passing-centric offense.
This is lining up to be a MASSIVE contract for DK.
Reports Tyreek Hill extension talks have stalled and Jets/Dolphins actively putting together trades.
Could be another DK comp. Pete seems intent on extending DK, but the price just keeps going up it seems.
It would be ideal to wait another year on DK he mighty give us edge in next year worst case.
I agree. It would be best to wait a year. No one really knows though if DK is prepared to play on his 4th year or not without an extension.
If he is to be traded, I’d prefer to get picks next year. I mean, go get Levis and Will Anderson- come on.
Someone will pay him, and perhaps whoever doesn’t land Hill between the Jets and Dolphins would circle around to the Hawks to check on Metcalf’s availability.
Move him for the right price and keep adding picks to build back up the defense. Plus, they can tap into the deep talent pool at receiver in this years draft.
I wonder if the Jets would be willing to trade picks #35, #38, and OT Mekhi Becton for DK Metcalf? I think Pete likes Becton, he had a quick comment to Becton, about his size, when he walked past him on the field before or after one of their games this year.
Interesting idea Cover2!
I’m not sure if that’s a little high given that Becton still has 3 years of team control remaining. It’d also be a big hole to fill if the Jets are trying to make more of a “Compete now” trade.
Maybe we could net 10/35 and use that to draft Trevor Penning? I know he’s not Becton, but still a good tackle prospect and we could use 35 on a WR.
Imagine a world where the draft like this for the Seahawks:
#9 – Jermaine Johnson
#10 – Trevor Penning
#35 – Kevin Austin Jr.
#40 – Channing Tindell
#41- Jalyn Amour-Davis
If you were comfortable with a tackle later on or trying to trade back into the 1st for Abraham Lucas, you could even take Stingley Jr. at #10.
I don’t love losing talent like DK, but not having to pay that contract and getting some blue chip talent would definitely help me cope.
Not exactly sure why the Dolphins are in on Hill. They have Devante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and now Cedrick Wilson. I haven’t checked but must be Parkers contract is up soon.
Parker is always injured.
Well Daniel Jeremiah’s last mock draft killed me, Jermaine Johnson going to the Giants at & and the Hawks taking Cross at 9.
Not sure when all the love for the Mike Leach/Air Raid offensive linemen started, but these guys aren’t great run blockers and Pete wants to run the ball better.
If Thibodeaux or Johnson aren’t there, trade back and go with Wyatt or Davis. I think Davis has some untapped potential to become an interior disruptor in the pass rush. Plus with his height and length he can disrupt the passing lanes.
I want to know what happened to DJ’s buddies who had Deshaun Watson definitely going to Seattle
Exactly. Combined with his year after year ability to mock players that Seattle & others won’t be drafting. Isn’t the point to predict what the teams will be doing? NFL network would do well to diversify the accents in their draft experience.
It’s actually good to hear Pete being more forthcoming with his answers and reassuring that he seems to realize how quickly this can go (has gone?) sideways and offers some hope of becoming more aggressive in addressing their needs. It didn’t seem as if he was on auto-pilot…and DK ain’t going nowhere.
My updated offer for Mayfield:
Seattle gets: Mayfield, #44, 2023 3rd round pick, Browns eat $16.5m
Cleveland gets: Jamal Adams, a moderately chilled six pack of Fresca
Rob, have you watched tape on Brandon Smith, the LB out of Penn State? He measured in at 6 foot 4 and weighed 241 pounds, plus he ran a 4.52 and has over 34 inch arms. I don’t see any agility numbers for him, but he is the epitome of run and hit. He became the guy at Penn State once Micah Parsons opted out of the season and Penn State does a good job of developing LBs for the pros.
Such great content Rob. Glad to see a shift back to focusing on the cream of the draft after so many years of no early/1st round picks.
This strikes me as a year when really no one’s job should be safe on the roster. To me it should be BPA at every pick. Is the consensus here that, pretty much however the board falls, #9 and #40/41 the best value/best player will be Edge/DT and LB respectively?
The Chiefs trading Hill could lead to worse Broncos picks next year.
I would much rather want to trade DK to the Jets for #10, #38 and a pick swap #4 for #9.
Although I am not optimistic that the Jets would accept that, we could get elite DE and CB this year and tap into the WR class with 38, 40 or 41.
Based on the value for Adams & Hill your not getting that. Pick 10 alone has 150points higher value than either package GB or KC received
DK is a few years younger then those guys and still has a year left on his rookie deal
*than
The Chiefs now have 2 first round, 2 second round and 2 third round picks.
All the talk of them being a lesser team ignore the fact that there are a lot of good receivers in this draft. They could restock on multiple ballers. They could trade up to get whomever they regard as a game wrecker.
The Chiefs will be just fine.
I’ll bet they are targeting Calvin Austin to repace Tyreke Hill.
Nice call.
Taking QB Jack Coan in the 4th round would be my ideal plan for addressing the QB situation this year. I feel like he could be a starter, in the mold of a Mac Jones or Matt Hasselbeck. I’m incredibly impressed the way he goes through his progressions, that seems hard to find in QB’s coming out of college.
As far as drafting Trevor Penning at #9, it isn’t a sexy pick but I could get behind it. If he could develop like the Raiders LT Kohlton Miller, that would be amazing. Miller was a super athletic OT coming out of college but he was seen as a developmental prospect. Miller was drafted in the 1st round, when at the time I thought the Raiders reached on. Now he is a top-5 OT according to PFF.
Something had to give on the WR market- too much draft capital available and too many teams with young qbs and bad wr rooms.
Tom Pelissero: Reunion: The #Seahawks agreed to terms with CB Justin Coleman to a one-year deal, per source.
https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1506670343183818753?s=20&t=wts-bXwSI25nFWNi6T_8xQ
Might cut Amadi now
Outside of their tackle situation, they’re doing a solid job hedging for the draft.
Would they get decent cap relief out of doing that? Otherwise, I’m not sure that would be a great move. Amadi is decent depth, at least…holds too much, but scraps hard.
Cutting Amani saves $2.54 million, with only a $161,299 in dead money.
How that offsets the Coleman deal, we shall see. But, it is a big upgrade at a valuable position.
Adam Schefter: Chiefs are trading six-time Pro-Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks: a 2022 1st-round pick (No. 29), a 2nd-round pick (No. 50) and a 4th-round pick, as well as 4th- and 6th-round picks in the 2023 draft, sources tell ESPN.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1506670698835623951?s=20&t=wts-bXwSI25nFWNi6T_8xQ
What in the name of God are the dolphins doing?
wow….can’t believe tyreek is not on the chiefs anymore.
the mahomes/kelce/hill trio was the best in football and I always thought it was that combo (and not just the QB) that made their offense so unstoppable. both receivers such tough match-ups.
It’s so interesting to note – when the Chiefs won their SB, w their 24 yr old superstar QB, you figured they had a couple more in them…and now, w them missing the last couple chances, and SD, LV, and other AFC teams looking so strong – who knows if they’ll win any more? SB success is so damn fleeting.
Chiefs & Mahomes may go the way of the post-SB loss to the Seahawks. One win, one loss to Brady and then not going back?
I’ve been on the keep DK for the next rookie contract QB, but if it’s going to be $30M like Hill and the Seahawks can get a 1, 2, and a couple late round picks … trade him! Seems like WR is a position with lots of good, young talent. Keep Tyler for the young QB and draft a young guy every year in rounds 2-4.
I can’t believe I’m saying this – but if you can trade DK for that, do it immediately.
This receiver market is out of control and the Hawks should be able to get that at an absolute minimum.
My sentiments exactly, Russ. Can you imagine what the Jet’s could offer us for him?
I actually posted this above earlier, before this trade was announced, about the Jets (might get more now):
I’m not sure if that’s a little high given that Becton still has 3 years of team control remaining. It’d also be a big hole to fill if the Jets are trying to make more of a “Compete now” trade.
Maybe we could net 10/35 and use that to draft Trevor Penning? I know he’s not Becton, but still a good tackle prospect and we could use 35 on a WR.
Imagine a world where the draft like this for the Seahawks:
#9 – Jermaine Johnson
#10 – Trevor Penning
#35 – Kevin Austin Jr.
#40 – Channing Tindell
#41- Jalyn Amour-Davis
If you were comfortable with a tackle later on or trying to trade back into the 1st for Abraham Lucas, you could even take Stingley Jr. at #10.
I don’t love losing talent like DK, but not having to pay that contract and getting some blue chip talent would definitely help me cope.
Jets had a deal in place with the Chiefs as well, if I am Schnieder I am on the phone with them now and see what the Hawks can get for Metcalf.
Yes, DK has shown a lot of talent, but he hasn’t developed into a complete receiver as much as we all had hoped. Would I be mad if the Hawks kept him? No, but his price tag just jumped into the $25M/yr range and I just don’t think he is in the same category as guys like Adams and Hill to justify spending that.
Well, Carroll made it clear they have no intention of dealing DK.
It’ll only happen if DK pushes for a deal — and I doubt he’s going to push to go to the Jets.
Mahomes or Rodgers? Maybe
Possibly Smokescreen?
No.
Nothing about his comment was a smokescreen on DK
To me it said: The goal is to sign him as soon as possible this offseason and but then between the lines is- if we can’t come to an agreement then things could change.
Pete in no way wants to trade DK. Schneider on the other hand…
Sure — if he doesn’t want to sign here then things will change
You’re right — Carroll will have no interest in dealing him
I think it’ll get done
Well, then let’s hope they get a reasonable deal done for DK soon.
Or…that DK is clear he wants the MONEY.
I think he does and this is just Carroll being Carroll, confusing what he wants vs. reality.
In fact, I hope that DK is clear about his intentions so that we can get picks for him. We are not contending this year. And he’s not quite good enough to spend that big money on.
Trade him if the right package comes along. That’s what you do when you’re rebuilding.
But does Carroll really understand he’s “rebuilding”? Despite it being obvious that the Seahawks are, he still doesn’t sound like it.
Metcalf has only been completely positive about Seattle and his future here though.
He’s not had even a smidgen of drama in that regard. Zero speculation.
I think people underestimate that he simply likes being with this team. And they’ll be willing to pay him.
Rob, you said yourself that the Hawks are trending towards a top 3 pick next season. Regardless of Pete’s delusion that we are a contender, in what universe does spending 25 million on DK equal sound roster construction. Sell high, use the picks to draft his replacement and a 6-8 yr starter for another position, and get the same production at a fraction of the cost.
The universe where when you have a fantastic young player you don’t give them away to create more holes
4yr 120m for hill.
Move dk now. No way you can negotiate now.
Similar to the Adams deal, the immediate AAV responses are way off in terms of what the deal actually entails.
I’m not sure I’d pay DK $24m/year, but it’s not as ridiculous as the $30m that people will think Hill got.
Calm down, we are not paying 25 mil per year this year.
But you will next year.
Next year the price will probably go up to $28 mil per year. But the NFL cap tends tends to go up $10 million per year, so that will offset it some.
Hey Rob, I might have missed this with your mock draft stream but if Ojabo happened to fall to 40/41 would it be worth it to take a flyer on him and hope he recovers in a way that we saw Taylor did (but hopefully sooner)? Or do you think Seattle is looking for an rusher that can rotate in right away and take a Sam Williams like in your mock?
Also do you have any thoughts on Stanford DT Thomas Booker? I don’t know too much about him personally but I saw his interview with Brett Kollman and he sounds like a very intelligent individual with decent measurables and athletic profile. Possibly a later round addition? Thanks for all you do again!
Doesn’t Ojabo have and Achilles problem?
Yep, the WR market is way too much…
Cya DK ✌
What the heck is going on?
My thoughts exactly
So the Jets were in for Hill as well, so they should be in on DK too if we make him available.
They didn’t dangle #4 or #10
I’ve added two more segments to this article — one on DK Metcalf’s future, one on the #41 pick
You’re an absolute animal! Love the quick updates my friend!
Agree with your sentiments. I still prefer to keep him at a reasonable price.
Last year he hired a new agency. Same one that represented Chris Godwin this year.
Rob 👀 🤯
Vid of agility drills: https://twitter.com/MattFosterTV/status/1506387012449935370
Also, #BeefJurgy is a hashtag I can get behind!
Did he bench?
Blog favourite for a reason! Remember when nobody talked about him? About to change.
Will add to the article.
Yes, 25 reps.
(sorry, that was Combine. It appears he chose not to bench again)
3.34 TEF
102.5 WTEF
Elite explosive traits
Wow. Impressive.
Interested to see your thoughts, Rob, on where he lands in the draft after this showing.
This is the guy I feel like we absolutely have to come away with. DE at 9 , LB at 41, C at 42. I realize it’s not sexy but this guy will anchor the center position for the next 10 years! No more screwing around. Get the right guy in place. Just hope he lasts long enough for us to take him.
That would be awesome. Question is, will he there at 41?
I sure hope so Tom!! I sure hope so. I have a sinking feeling he will not be though.
I’m hoping for the same thing with our first three picks.
I thought Jurgens was a player we could target in a trade down from #42. Now, I’d be good with taking him at #42, assuming we take DE at #9 and LB at #41.
Seahawks have Signed Justin Coleman! Good depth signing in my opinion.
Excellent
Decent
Very happy about that. Best nickel CB we’ve had in recent years, IMO. I though we never should have let him get away in FA.
Him jumping into that Cowboys pot, while Clark was drumming at it, is one of my favorite moments post LOB.
He seems a bit past his better years in 2017-2018-2019. In 2020 and 2021 he had a PFF scores of 47 and 52. I hope he has something left in the tank since he’s only 29 and we really need a better slot corner.
I’m all in for trading DK if they can get a haul. You don’t “rebuild” with spending $30 million per year on a WR and not having a good QB.
Here’s what you can likely get, with a couple throw-ins too…
Ok, Schefty got the full deal:
We should absolutely take that deal if offered to us, IMO.
Or perhaps even better: they keep #69 and instead we flip picks #4 and #9.
Just do it! Excellent opportunity to load up, pure bonus if it’s the Jets.
Why not? That’s exactly when you have the cap space for it. A dominant WR can be a young, point-guarding QB’s best friend
Problem is that he’s not dominant. He’s a great WR on paper but only a “good one” in real life.
I completely disagree on this.
DK has been in the league three years. He’s only 24, and he’s put up over 3k yards and scored 29 touchdowns. That’s great.
If anything, teams that aren’t close like the Dolphins and Jets should value DK higher than Hill (28) or Adams (29).
Ya, I’m perplexed. So many are eager to give him up for draft stock that’s not even top 15, but 2nd round?! I get its a deep draft, but no. Simply no.
DK has as much potential as literally any WR in the NFL. Plus, he’s put up tremendous numbers with consistency. So his stats floundered after a strong start this last season. RW was throwing with a dangle finger and DK was playing through a nagging injury the whole time.
DK’s got a good 5+ pro bowls in him yet.
Spent some time today watching Corral, I’ve now seen a total of six of his games (Tennessee, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas, Louiville). Here are my thoughts:
Pros:
Arm strength and athleticism stand out in a big way. Can be a dangerous runner. He fits balls into tight windows. Lightning-fast release. Character is very good. His receivers were mediocre to bad, a whole lot of good throws were dropped.
Cons:
Some really questionable decisions, from throws to when he chooses to slide. In the Tennessee game he nearly fumbled three times. He took a lot of hits in every game, and in at least 4 of them he got nicked in some way (definitely a lot of dirty hits on him when he slid though). Some very questionable throws, especially under pressure or outside the pocket. Some were completed but won’t be at the next level.
I might need to watch more games, but I am very unimpressed with his deep ball. Only one throw that stood out as an “NFL Caliber” throw in that regard (a nice throw against Tennessee that fell over the well-covered receiver’s shoulder and into the bucket). Anyone have any videos to the contrary? I’d love to see them.
Overall, I see him as a 2nd round pick. There are traits to work with, but I have no confidence he can operate an NFL offense. I worry about his durability as well. I may be very wrong, I was on Mahomes and probably was about Herbert, but I don’t think this guy is a superstar in the making.
Why did the dolphins need Hill? Don’t they have a younger player essentially the same skill set in Waddle? Will Hill even be the same player without an elite qb throwing to him… and instead mediocre Tua?
Dolphins have plenty of holes. Don’t see them as a Tyreek Hill away from contending.
I think it’s an exciting move for them
I seem to recall Tyreek made Alex Smith into a deep ball passer for one year.
Heard the same thing yesterday, Rob. Very positive. I really think that PC/JS are back to what they do best and get most excited about. Find young talent and/or misfits and develop them.
They also mention Stone and Jake Curham as tackle options. Add one tackle in FA and let’s see what these guys got. 2022 is a year that should be looked at as trying to find out who can play and who can’t.
I think the Hawks will have a QB comp with Lock/Geno/4-6th round pick (Coan/Elleby). No downside and tremendous upside if one of these hits. If not, 2023 will be well setup with 4 draft picks in first 2 rounds.
The Hawks are on the right track. Can’t wait for the draft and next 5 years to see how this plays out. Which in a couple years will coincide with a Rams decline.
I think going with SF and JC could be a recipe for disaster even in a season where losing is Ok. But there’s losing and there’s LOSING.
I want to add two experienced tackles.
Rob, last year we all saw DK throwing fits on the field when he was not targeted. I saw a lot of immaturity from him and now he could be getting throws from Drew Lock, who at this moment has no experienced tackles, and likely running for his life. I believe his immaturity will explode this year and for that reason, I am saying it’s time to trade him for a 1 and 2. If you don’t, you will have one unhappy player.
Well Lock may be willing to try the throws that RW never would. Don’t forget DK pointing to the sideline wanting Geno in there. That being said, I would absolutely deal him for a 1 and 2.
I think his frustration was a bit overrated
After all, he was pointing for Geno Smith to come in vs Washington. To me it just looked like a guy desperate to win
He seemed frustrated as hell about losing the games not about targets himself. We’ve never seen him mad when Seattle was winning a game.
I think DK is everything Carroll wants in a WR. Hungry, physical, a bit cocky. Probably sees him as a young TO or Brandon Marshall.
Agreed
Couldn’t agree more. Pete’s been looking for a DK his whole tenure in Seattle. I cannot see him giving the keys to his Ferrari away.
GB received #22&53 for 1150points in 2022
KC received #29,50,& 121 for 1092points in 2022 + a 2023 4th & 6th.
So looks like 1150points is current value for top recevers.
If Seattle is not willing to pay or Metcalf unwilling to sign you move him.
Possible Metcalf trades to Jets?
Jets pick #10 valued at 1300 is unlikely.
(#35,38, & 111 would be 1142 which is current market.)
Jets would still have plenty of 2022 draft capital after the trade. Maybe you could squeeze another pick because of DKs age & upside.
Great post Scot
What is the cost to move up to 4 from 9?
R2P54 = 104 pts.
R3P72 + R4P109 = 99 pts. is also close.
A lot.
Look at the Dolphins a year ago and how much it cost them to even get back in the top 10
Why not something a bit more creative.
Some combo of picks plus OT Mekhi Becton for Metcalf.
The Hawks get a young left tackle, plus a pick (or picks). He’s under contract for the next two years, plus a fifth year option. This would make a lot of sense for both teams.
Becton came into camp last year overweight then missed 16 games with knee issues. He was initially expected to only miss a month or two. Rumors were the reason was weight he put on while trying to recover. I’d pass & just take the picks. Get a young tackle in round 2.
Seattle would have 5 picks in top 41. I’d embrace the rebuild, this trade on top of Wilson’s allows them to do it.
Obviously this is only if you can’t resign Metcalf or choose not to.
All of what you said about Becton is valid. But its also why he might be available. His stock will be way down, and he’s going into camp as a likely backup (they seem to like Fant more).
This is predicated on Becton not being valued today anywhere near where he was picked a few years ago. If the Jets are down on him, it would be buy-low opportunity. The Jets would be dealing form a position of strength, while moving on from a guy who struggled last year in a deal for a player that would very clearly make them better.
For Seattle, they get a young player with significant upside who fits in at a position of need. Becton, plus picks, would make a lot of sense.
Losing Metcalf would suck…
But dominating the early 2nd round with, 35, 38, 40 and 41 would be an absolute dream for a rebuilding team, especially considering where the “meat” of this draft is.
At this point I’d rather keep DK and it seems PC does too. Seattle money isn’t wrapped up into a QB and won’t be for another 4 or 5 years if they draft their QOF this or more likely next year. You would want to give your young inexpensive QB a true #1 which could accelerate his development.
Instead of paying a QB at 30 mil plus a WR you’ll just be reverse engineering the process by paying your wideout 25 mil with QB on a rookie contract. It’s fiscally sound I’m saying that even with my frustrations with the front office.
And they managed to add another 1 yr contract today. Face palm.
Do we see an optjon where they select Johnson at 9 and take both Lucas and Jurgens at 40 and 41?
I think you have to take a LB there.
Maybe if Tindall, Chenal and Walker are all gone
I’m in on so much of the Draft plan, but we’ve been saying for the last 18 months that the Seahawks put too many resources into the Safety and Linebacker positions and now it seems we have take a LB at #40 or #41. The Rams just have a couple of guys at LB and they’ve done quite well recently.
This is a great LB class, but this also persuades me a Rd 3 pick on a LB will be plenty high enough. A good higher grade player is going to fall that far, maybe a Troy Anderson or Branden Smith, I think D’Marco Jackson can do a good job for you in this position, picked later in the draft. #41 and #42 is still too high for an LB, keep working on the trenches or a CB would be my preference here?
I would typically say you’re right
It’s just some of these linebackers are just too good
But in four years time it doesn’t mean you need to pay them $18m year and scrimp and save on the trenches…
But if their value in 4 years time, isn’t that of a top Tackle, either side, or Edge rusher then, it shouldn’t be now as part of the rebuild, we need to build with these players first.
It’s all what ifs at the moment, who’s on the board at #40, but there could be quite a combination of offensive linemen, defensive linemen or Corners still on the board at #40 that could make quite a difference to our team in the next x number of years, that’d be hard to turn down for a Linebacker early in the second round, irrespective of how good they are.
I would rather we were already better in the trenches and on the edge, and we should be, then picking one of these excellent Linebackers would be a no brainer, but that’s not where this team is.
You’re overthinking this a bit Julian.
You don’t have to avoid fantastic players because you fear in four years you might have a choice on whether to pay them. If you do that what happens is you pass on talent for lesser players who don’t warrant a second contract anyway.
The linebackers are outstanding in this draft and one will be taken early (and rightly so)
It won’t stop them building the trenches
I would love DE JJ at #9, Lucas, Tindall at #40 #41 will be my dream. Will love to have good center drafted but some reason Pete thinks he can have anyone at that position.
Rob, is part of your advocacy for Jermaine Johnson and Devonte Wyatt related to them being 23 and 24 year old rookies? I would think that at those ages there is some security/confidence in knowing who they are as fully formed mature adults/prospects. Really raises the floor in a draft where you don’t want to miss.
Whereas, with say Thibs and Stingley, while the upside is tantalizing, you just don’t know who they will become as they mature.
No, my advocacy is purely on them being fantastic players
I’m also pretty sure I read Wyatt is 22
Maybe I should have phrased that better. Do you see benefits to drafting older players, in that it may raise the floor, helps with the projection, and alleviates some risk?
Not gospel, but Wiki has Wyatt turning 24 at the end of this month.
I think it depends on the player. Ideally you draft impactful 22 year olds. But I view players on 4-8 year timeframes so drafting a 24 year old if he’s really good doesn’t worry me
Makes sense, thanks.
I kind of like the thought of making sure this first rounder hits, and going high floor. A safe double as opposed to swinging for the fences.
Unrelated, but odd fact:
Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley are both 27 and never played at Alabama at the same time.
I remember reading one of the reason they liked Collier was because he was a little older than other rookies & could likely make an impact earlier. Obviously I’m not comparing Collier to Wyatt skill wise.
It seems the Seahawks are fine with older draft pick though, Eskridge was an older rookie as well.
I agree with Rob though, if they can make a year 1 impact who cares if their 24.
IMO Thibodeaux has unjustly been given the immature or not an effort player. I just think he has a unique personality and likes to talk a lot, which may rub some people the wrong way.
Here is a video of him putting in work a few years back.
https://youtu.be/ZvUzqmjyYQ8
Agreed.
To clarify, I used the word mature as a verb to mean the process of physically maturing – requires some projection with 20/21 year olds; not to imply anything about the immature/mature binary use of the word.
I admire your optimism about Seattle getting tackles before the draft Rob. I sincerely hope you’re right, but I’m quite pessimistic considering how they handled their supposed top priority of pass rush a couple of offseasons ago.
I’m not optimistic they’ll do it
I’m just pleased they seem to know what they need to get done before the draft, to allow them to focus on the right things during it
I’m probably the only one disappointed about the DK talk – he’s not worth the resources. I’d deal him and get some serious draft capital. He will never be a top tier WR because he lacks consistency – and his problems are not easily curable, IMO.
I know I’m alone on this. I also hate his attitude. We are a bad QB season away from him pulling his usual antics.
*FTR. I’m not calling him a bad guy or anything. He’s just wildly immature and I’m don’t particularly care that he calls himself out on that, when he doesn’t actually change anything.
I don’t see PC trading DK but then he was not interested in Russ trade too. If we are trading DK this year, it better be more than 1st, 2nd ( should be above #20 draft position) and more in may be O Tackle or draft picks.
I don’t know. I see him as a competitive hot head more than an actual problem.
I’d rather have guys where you have to try to dial back the juice (Browner, Breno types) rather than wallflowers that need a fire lit under them.
The maturity thing can come along. An example is the fumbled walk -in TD against Dallas, and then the chase down of Budda. Learned a lesson on never letting up.
DK is entering his age 24 season, and is one of the best WRs in league history through 3 seasons. For comparison, Cooper Kupp was a 24 year old rookie and just had his first Pro Bowl season at 28.
DK has plenty of room for the technique and mental to catch up with the incomparable physical traits.
All my advocacy for DK aside – given the $$ and assets being received in trades for WRs I would be open to the conversation.
24 year should be very valuable in a trade given the returns for 29 year old Davante Adams and 28 year old Tyreek Hill with significant character concerns.
If you’re going to do it, now is the time, with the Jets and Packers probably still in the market.
*24 year old DK
I don’t know – to me it still comes down to – 1) what do we have? lots of picks, and lots of cap room (in ’23); 2) what do we need? more great players.
The odds of getting someone as good as DK among two 2nd round picks in the 30’s, seems like less than 50%. In this case, I’d rather stay w the star we know.
Great point as well.
Ultimately, you want draft picks to become great young players that you want to give 2nd contracts to, such as DK. Otherwise, you’re just kind of going around in circles.
I really can see both sides of the DK question.
Dont think you’re alone my man.
I would prefer draft picks to paying DK
Not as concerned with the character/maturity issues. Very concerned with his drops, inability to high point the ball/catch contested balls, lack of short area cutting to gain separation and overall inconsistency. Not saying he’s trash or anything close to it – but I certainly don’t think he’s a top tier wr talent who should be paid as such and make no mistake after this off-season’s wr contracts he’s going to want north of 25 mil.
When you look at the Tyreek Hill trade it is going to put a HUGE roadblock in the Metcalf negotiating process. Metcalf in his mind is NOT going to settle for 20mil let alone 25mil. What Miami has done is give Hill STUPID money. I could just see the look on John Schneider’s face when he got the details of the Hill trade. I would say there is a good chance that DK Metcalf will be traded. I don’t see JS giving Metcalf 28mil per year.
No doubt Metcalf and a receiver in Cincinnati are LICKING THEIR CHOPS with the Hill and Davante Adams contracts.
DK and his camp can also say that he is 4 years younger than Hill and clean off the field.
The Hawks will have North of 120 mill. in cap next year…WGAF about what DK will cost. He is a once in a regime type of player that we have all clamored for.
Also I will say RW was piss poor at high pointing him OR hitting him when he’s wide open in the middle, and with 4.3 speed?
Keep him long term regardless of cost.
Rob,
Putting aside the specifics of the Dk/Seahawks situation, how do you value the #1 WR position, relative to salary cap allocation?
You’ve written before about the lack of value in allocating too much money in, say, the LBs and Safety position, vs more impactful (and difficult to replace) positions, like edge or OT.
Do you have an opinion about just how “valuable” an elite WR is vs othe positions and/or how replaceable the position is?
Not Rob,
But I do remember there was an extended period of time where teams were winning Super Bowls without big time #1 WRs (it wasn’t the Andre and Calvin Johnson types). Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman being the best WR on SB winning teams.
But lately, elite WRs are winning championships – Evans, Kupp, Tyreek. Though I’m not sure if that’s indicative of an increasingly valuable type of player as it relates to winning, or just a coincidence.
I think WR, today, is a very valuable position but not on the level of the trenches or QB
I think that teams are figuring out that you can’t have both a $45m QB and a $25M receiver on the same team. That’s basically 1/3 of your cap. This looks good for DK staying in Seattle. By the time he has a big cap number, they can move on from Tyler Lockett’s contract. Plus they will still be on a rookie deal with their new QB.
These $45-50M QB’s have to be able to make young receivers better; and these $25M receivers have to make these young QB’s look better.
Green Bay was willing to pay Adams on top of Rodgers. So obviously not all teams feel that way. Adams just wanted to play elsewhere.
You could be right Scot04; but it seems like teams that trade popular players try to spin it so appears that the player gave them no other choice. It’s like Russell forced the trade to Denver or Tyreek wanted Miami.
Overall I think it just comes down to the type of team you want to build. Pete wants to win with Defense and Special teams. Wants a running game so he can have a game manager.
Well we have a ton of holes if he wants to build that team.
Metcalf could become an amazing player, but to build what Pete wants it might be a necessary trade.
I have to imagine if the Jets offer picks #35,38, & 111 John will think hard on it.
Pete has always coveted a WR like Metcalf, too
Very true. I think it just comes down to is how much they value him. Feels like 4-5 yrs 100M-125M; but who knows, he might ask for more.
It definitely will be interesting to see how it plays out.
If they sign a couple O-linemen I’ll feel more confident about them keeping Metcalf.
Just because you want to win through defense does not mean you do not invest in playmakers on offense. Thats the wrong approach. You need stars on both sides of the ball. Sure with a more defensive team, you can have more of your stars on defense. But you definitely need some big time players on Offense otherwise you won’t be able to score. Just go look at how teams allocate salary cap, it might be 60/40 to one side, but it will never become more unbalanced than that. If you go 70/30 or worse, you just are not going to win period.
100% agree which is why I think if they sign a couple O-linemen I’ll feel more confident they’ll keep Metcalf. Otherwise it starts to feel like a total rebuild.
I’d prefer keeping Metcalf, but am not sure what direction the team is going at this point.
I think it’s prudent cost-benefit analysis for 3rd contract players.
It’s what we would have done if Earl Thomas didn’t break his leg.
Rob,
Glad you found Carrol’s comments positive, but I’m a bit confused what it was, in specific, that led to the change in your assessment. Specifically, you said ….
“Carroll called offensive tackle ‘a spot of real concern’. To me his comments contained a sense of urgency, like he knew they had to get something sorted quickly. ….My interpretation is I think they’re going to make some moves pre-draft.”
What was it that makes you think they will address it pre-draft rather than, as everyone fears, at #9 (or by trading down)? Just the fact that he brought up the need for an OT, the ‘sense of urgency,’ or what? I hope you’re right and am looking for some additional evidence to justify it!
Like I said, the urgency with which he spoke and the words he used to describe the situation.
Carroll is quite easy to parse
Insanity with the prices paid for a WR! Do you think Deebo or DK can get similar deals to 28mill/year? Niners have to extend both Deebo and Bosa soon! Crazy!
Rob, too tired for more, just wanted to say I really love your articles, best there are out there.
Thanks Mick 👍🏻
I remember a team that won a Superb Owl with a stifling defense, historically great ST, dominant running game, and I believe among the highest, if not the highest paid OL at the time. It did not have a $30m+ QB, and its receivers were considered quite “pedestrian” comparatively. It was loaded with castoffs and UDFA with chips on their shoulders.
Let’s do that again.
100% agree
So much this. You don’t win Super Bowls by building around a WR.
I’m not completely opposed to keeping DK, but if you can get a good return on him I think it would be foolish not to take it.
Keeping and paying a good receiver is not ‘building around a WR’.
It’s simply keeping and paying a good receiver.
And that’s important.
Dedicating that much of your cap space is “building around a WR” though.
It isn’t though
It’s just keeping a good player
I love this post Hawk Finn.
Thoughts on Dylan Parham? I’m seeing him in some 2nd round mocks as a G/C.
😂
That’s funny!
Justin Coleman? Does anyone know how much they are paying him? Sounds like a one year deal.
Hopefully not much as Bruce posted earlier he had PFF scores of 47 and 52 the past couple of years and he’s not getting any younger these days.
It just looks like Tindall and A Lucas will fall right into the #40 and #41 slots. Have not seen either picked n round one on any mock.
Top of R2 is a danger zone for those guys, IMO. They’ve gotta last those first seven picks to get to us, when many teams may have already filled their biggest need and might lean more towards BPA. Better have backup plans ready.
Also got to remember virtually every mock is total pap
Ya Rob, your finding impact guys, several in the late 100s or 200s and one in the 800s was eye opening as to how far off some of the values are in the draft simulator.
I see all the talk about DK; however, I’m wondering whether it would make more sense to look at dealing Lockett. Don’t get me wrong; Lockett is one of my favorite players on the team, but building around a stopgap quarterback and/or a rookie in 2023, I think you’d probably rather have DK. Furthermore, seems like Lockett has a more reasonable Cap hit which would potentially open up the door for a GB/KC to be in on him or dangle him to the Jets. Thoughts?
Lockett aint going anywhere.
Stunned that even has been brought up at any point really, especially considering his contract
Carroll has repeatedly highlighted him as the ideal Seahawk — and says they’re ‘not rebuilding’.
DK might be younger than Lockett bigger faster but if game on line lockett is 100% more reliable than DK. Has a rebuilding team i want team member more like lockett than DK who can’t keep cool on field. For me Lockett every Sunday over DK.
Game on the line like, 4th and goal with time expiring, game winning touchdown catch…
DK has been awesome in big moments.
Dealing Lockett would be a very bad cap problem.
His cap hit this year is $10.05 million. If you trade him, you then eat $15.2 million in dead cap.
That means you are now paying him $5.15 million to play somewhere else, AND paying STILL paying his $10.05 million that you have paid him if not traded.
You aren’t getting high draft capital for Lockett, in comparison to DK or the other top receivers, anyway.
It’s just not worth it.
And just to reinforce the point..
He’s got a $13m option bonus the Seahawks have probably already exercised too, so it would be $28.35m dead/$18.15m hit to the cap.
Would be devastating in the locker room, too.
I generally consider the Packers and Chiefs to be well-run organizations overall. Both were reportedly trying to resign their top receivers, but talks stalled and they didn’t hesitate to trade them. Age of the players is definitely an important factor in how to pay these guys (Adams is 29, Hill is 28).
I don’t think DK has done enough to earn a 4 year deal from the Hawks. They give 3 year deals to their favorite players and 4 to their hall of fame players.
Can DK be good with a 3 year deal knowing he could get more elsewhere?
How about a four year deal with a big old chunk guaranteed which gives maybe the only star player on a team devoid of them a great deal and when DK is 27 revisit an extension or a trade especially if they get creative and middle load the contract so the last year is fairly cheap by todays standards?
Re-entering free agency at 27-28 has to be the sell.
I think one big thing people over look with DK is how well his best skillset(straight line running for deep balls) meshed with Wilson’s (arguably) best skill set of throwing amazing deep balls. What will DK’s stats look like with a more nfl average type of deep ball QB throwing to him? My guess is not near as good – which is why I think it’d be very unwise to pay DK this off-season. Either trade him between now and the draft or wait a year and see how he fares paired with a different QB.
The Seahawks basically had one play against the Saints last season, when Geno Smith was playing QB.
It was an 84-yard touchdown, all because of Metcalf’s talent.
So let’s not make out that with someone crappy throwing he’s going to be ineffective.
He is the definition of an X-factor talent
Have to say Rob his 84 yard TD was all about luck and piss poor play from the defenders. The cb covering him was in position and fell down on his own leaving DK an easy uncontested catch and the safety took and bad angle and made a really poor attempt at a tackle – DK still made it happen but it was’nt really because he made any X factor type things happen – it was because the defenders screwed the pooch royally on the play.
Fine, if you want to view that play in that way.
I’ll refer you to Cha’s numbers when Geno played with him. Very good. And that’s with Geno freakin Smith throwing the ball.
Metcalf in 3 games with Geno:
18 targets
14 receptions
197 yards
3 TD
Over 17 games that is
102 targets
79 catches
1116 yards
17 TD
In the 17 actual games:
129 targets
75 catches
967 yards
12 TD
DK actually put up better numbers in those 3 games without Russ on average. Even if you decide to trend those numbers down 10-15% for a small sample size, he’s still very productive.
To be fair we played a bad Steelers team with injuries, the Saints who put up 13 points against our defense – ie. a bunch of opportunities for our offense and we only managed 10 points, and a horrific team in Jacksonville.
But still point taken that he can still produce. I personally would still like to see him play after all our off season changes/Russ leaving before committing obscene amounts of money to him.
probably an irrational take and hindsight…. but it frustrates me that Sherm,earl, kam, bobby all walked away for nothing. Bluechip talent that they tried to hold onto forever. I think it is smart what the chiefs did and will make them better in the long term.
If we draft Wyatt with #9, what do you all think of sending Shelby Harris to Browns for Baker, with the Browns and Hawks splitting Mayfields contract? I would love it.
Why?
For me it’s trading an older player with a 1 year contract at a position with too many bodies for a younger player at a premium position for about a million dollars in cap space. Shelbys contract is 8 mil and our obligation to Baker would be 9 mil. If Baker is good but you don’t want to commit, you lose him but most likely gain a compensatory 3rd. You won’t get that with Harris and I don’t think they resign him next year if they pick up Wyatt. I know Baker might be had for less but if Carolina misses out on their QB in the draft I would be surprised if they don’t try to trade for Mayfield.
Too many bodies??
Woods, Mone, Jefferson, Ford, Wyatt, and Collier (I know, but maybe he’s a better 3-4 end) at DL in a 3-4 front. That’s 6 bodies, maybe having 7 is preferable from a depth perspective but I’d rather have Baker vs Lock than Geno vs Lock.
That’d be awful lol
Do you happen to be the Browns GM posting undercover?
Skip Bayless 😂
You trade away a productive DL who is considered a locker room leader for a head case, who has zero support from his teammates?
Brown will have to eat 50% cap space and give 6th rounder to get rid of Baker.
At a minimum! I’d rather have Kaepernick than Baker.
I don’t know why anyone wants Kaepernick.
He wasn’t any good before and now we’re saying in his mid 30’s after years of not playing we want him???
His one defining aspect was his running ability. That’s it. He was a terrible passer. Do people think he’s going to be a great runner now???
It’s only going to get worse until the QB position is “settled”. I get that people strongly like or dislike him for political reasons, but your spot-on assessment alone is enough justification to stay away.
Just for clarification. I don’t want either. But I really don’t want Baker.
Tom, I apologize for my pointed response because it really wasn’t directed at you. I appreciate your posts and don’t have any quarrel with you. I am simply exhausted by the recent flood of Kaep posts.
I have noticed that many of the pro-Kaep comments are from posters I don’t recognize. Not sure if because the blog has really taken off or if it’s just troll season.
I also want it understood that I am not anti-Kaep politically. I agree he got screwed. I just think he sucks, and 5 years away doesn’t change that for the better. People are of course welcome to disagree.
Thanks Hawk Finn, all good! Rob is exactly right about Kaep and his QB abilities – it has nothing to do with his politics. I was being a smartass with my comment and that darned sarcasm font didn’t work again!
The Browns need to pay us to take Baker off their hands, not the other way around. I hope we role with who we have (I’m assuming Geno is coming back according to Pete) plus one of the QBs as a late round pick and wait for next year to get really serious about our next QB.
Seeing your comment again, the sarcasm is obvious. I simply reacted rather than reading…you know, kinda like Kaep always did
Not a uniform I want to picture him in. 😒
Ok by me. He’s from LA so not a surprise.
Agreed. I’d like to see Bobby win another ring and the rams give him as good a shot as any next year
I love Bobby as much as anyone on here, and he’s one of my favourite Hawks of all time, but:
1) the Rams have the worst uniforms in the NFL;
2) I don’t want to have to play against him twice a season every season;
3) I want Bobby to have success, even win a Super Bowl, just not with a division rival!
Based on the way he played last season, I’d happily play him twice a year
Then they better add a couple veteran tackles before the draft for that to seem realistic. Add in extending Metcalf.
We have worthless losers at QB but we’re not rebuilding. I didn’t realize Diggs was that stupid.
Technically Diggs is correct. In order to ‘re’-build something there has to have been something built in the first place. There wasn’t. We’re in the tear down phase.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1506684226900533253?t=4TGYNVBmrynt95o8xm713Q&s=19
Jets were definitely competitive in their offer
If No. 35, 38 and 69 were offered for DK, I’d jump on that so quickly.
I think I would too. And I’m a big DK fan, and understand that he is a on a trajectory for greatness.
But those picks would really allow you to flesh out the roster evenly.
3 potential B/B+’s for 1 A/A+. Unless the A+ is a QB, I think that’s closer to a winning formula.
High five for writing “flesh out” and not “flush out”.
Just imagine having 9, 35, 38, 40, 41..
That fills almost every non-QB hole in the roster (edge, T, LB, WR, CB), plus they can probably can take a QB too without too much stress in the early 2nd.
Then you’d still have (x2) early 3rd’s at 69 and 72 to add depth!
If the Seahawks did trade away DK to the Jets for 35 + 38 + 69
Seahawks trade away:
2021 1st
2021 3rd
2022 1st
2022 4th
Russell Wilson
Dk
Seahawks receive:
Jamal Adams
2022 1st -Broncos
2022 2nd -Broncos
2022 2nd -Jets
2022 2nd -Jets
2022 3rd -Jets
2022 5th -Broncos
2023 1st -Broncos
2023 2nd -Broncos
Drew Lock
Shelby Harris
Noah Fant
I hope the Seahawks do get DK signed to an extension but it would be fun to have more picks for even more content. I prefer the senior bowl/combine/draft to the actual season(at least in the past several years), this blog has been a great way to spend some time for the last 8+ years for me. Thanks Rob!
KC would have been sending #103 back with Hill. So in the same scenario we would be sending back pick #109
For picks 35,38 & 69
Unless you count DK as more valuable since he’s 4 years younger and has no off-field baggage.
Which I think is fair when comparing DK/Hill.
Rob – Curious to gain your insight on Kaepernick’s workout with Lockett and now with Aaron Fuller. How was his release, throwing motion, footwork, mechanics, etc.?
🤭
I’ve not watched them.
He was a bad quarterback when he last played and was replaced by Blaine Gabbert. He was an awful passer and relied on running.
Now he’s old and hasn’t played for years.
There’s no need to watch these workouts.
Thanks, I respect it. Long time follower and supporter of your work. Keep grinding’!
Thank you
[Jack Settleman] Sources tell me the Packers and Chiefs have inquired about DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s availability. Seattle is open to listening to offers for their star WRs but nothing is imminent.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jacksettleman/status/1506755466860236806
Dude looks like he’s 8 years old. Imma go out on a limb and say he should use quotation marks around the word “sources”.
It’s like all the people tweeting that, according to their sources, Seattle needed a QB immediately after trading Wilson.
People just throw stuff at the wall that kind of makes sense so if it sticks they can say “Told you! I was first”
I heard out back by the monkey bars….
Haha sorry guys.
Was on the phone and didn’t bother checking his twitter account.
Pretty sure that Dude got no sources at all.
I don’t know who Jack Settleman is
Which makes me think he’s full of it. Because he would’ve broken something by now.
Just saw it popping up on the NFL reddit and thought I’d post it.
I definitely felt a little embarrased after checking his twitter account lol
I think he is Josina’s intern
Atta boy, John!
Can’t believe Chad Forbes is still pretending to be an insider, frankly
But then I shouldn’t be surprised.
A tweet about DK Metcalf from ‘Ballsack Sports’ has over 3000 likes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BallsackSports/status/1506660930821705732
If I tweeted right now:
‘Jets are interested in Metcalf’
It would have about 10,000 likes by tomorrow
Twitter is so dumb
Please don’t forget: “per sauces”!
“Twitter is so dumb”
Retweetable
Forbes is an absolute tool. Dude dont know shit.
Kenny Pickett – If hand size wasnt a concern, how would he grade out? His senior stats were impressive (67% completion; 42 TD to 7 INT; led Pitt to great record, including beating Clemson).
I know he’s not Russell Wilson (few are), but like Wilson is he being graded significantly down based on one thing (hand size) that may not be much of an impediment in the end?
My understanding is that there is a perception that players with small hands are more prone to fumbles. I also understand that Pickett fumbled a lot, which doesn’t help his case.
He’s certainly talented, otherwise.
Dave Kreig doesn’t like your post
Spot on Mike! When I think of them drafting Pickett I wonder if anyone else remembers the fumble king Kreig…. Apparently I’m not the only one!
I think the knock on him for hand size is a little stupid. Has there even been a clear correlation to hand size and fumble rate? Dak Prescott has 10″ hands and lead the league in fumbles last year. Joe Burrow has 9″ hands and had 1/3 that amount (and 1 less than Russ @ 10 1/4″). On top of that Pickett is clearly comfortable throwing with gloves, which gives him an advantage in grip and bad weather. He’s double jointed as well, which gives him better grip with his palm. I’ve watched all his available film on youtube and haven’t seen any fumble concerns above the norm.
Has there ever been a study clearly correlating hand size to fumble rate?
Pickett fimbled 38 times in college. That’s quite a lot.
Hmm. The only college Fb stats site I see has him as much less than that and only 4 in 13 games last year, 1 more than ridder (10 inch). Which stats site does that number come from?
Dave Kreig…
Great minds….
(and long time Hawks fans)
Came here to say this
NFL footballs are over a 1 inch bigger in circumference than college footballs. So, it’s harder to grip and throw a tight spiral for someone with small hands.
It’s probably why Tom Brady did the whole deflate gate thing…better grip on the ball.
Rob, if you were Seattle Owner will try and tank this year, our roster is pretty bad and no chance of winning SuperBowl I know we Pete wont but if you were in charge will you do it? Also are there any generational type players for next year?
Will Anderson
This
Pete will never tank.
I for one would love to see what Mahomes and DK could put up on the field together
LOL
Chiefs fan: the door is open in kc! 👀👀
DK: Better close it, heard it get cold at night 😂
https://twitter.com/dkm14/status/1506805020812931072?s=20&t=6PhbyN2edci2HKl0rnttpg
What a great reply by DK! Loved it.
Love DK & hope we step up & pay him.
However; I think the Seahawks should up their time-line in getting him signed to before the draft. That’s plenty of time for the Seahawks to know if they can make it happen.
If you can’t lock him up by then you’re unlikely too.
Best to get on without him for this years picks if you’re going to trade him.
Don’t wait, offer 4yrs 100M 60M guaranteed & see if he takes it. Then figure it out from there.
I wonder how many Super Bowl winning teams in recent times have had a WR with a huge cap hit like it’ll take for DK? Even two legit Super Bowl contenders like the Chiefs and Packers just chose to deal them away.
Personally hoping for a king’s ransom from the Jets for DK. Maybe throw in Carson to sweeten the pot if they’re interested.
Just checked every season all the way back to 2005. The only significant WR cap hits on Super Bowl winning teams are Harrison and Wayne in 2006, and Sammy Watkins with the Chiefs in 2019.
Seems WR is similar to QB in that way
The 2017 Eagles had Alshon Jeffery at a 1 year/14 million dollar contract. That was when the Salary Cap was 167 million, so about 8.3% of the cap
2015 Broncos had Demaryius Thomas at 8.8% of the cap (with 11% going to Peyton)
8% isn’t what top WRs are making APPY now
nvm I think you’re right. I need to go to bed.
Poli watch out. Once you start going down that road of digging around for roster construction most moves start to be head scrstchers.
Expensive wide recievers? Not necessarily a great idea. Same with corners. Same with safeties. Expensive running backs, same.
Too five picks getting the team that drafted them to the superbowl, not as likely as one would think.
The seahawks and their oline. Is it the players or is it that they have run one of the least consistent by actual lineup olines in the league for a decade?
On the question of whether to pay or deal DK Metcalf, I’m in the DEAL him camp for the following reasons. He’s not worth the money he’s going to get. He has rare speed and size and teams will pay for that, so strike while the iron is hot. Metcalf is much better than many evaluators ever thought he would be. The knock on him was he relied solely on his speed and his route tree had only one branch – the go route. This criticism was wrong, but in a sense right. He has shown the ability to run a complete route tree, but his game is totally based on speed. He has not figured out how to use his size to his advantage. The man is bigger than many tight ends. I thought by now he’d have learned to use his massive frame to shield defenders away from the ball, a talent Anquan Boldin and Michael Irvin made careers out of. I also thought by now he would have learned to high point the ball. He’s 6’5″, giving him a 6″ advantage over most DBs. Add a 40.5″ vertical and he should be impossible to defend. When he’s being covered well deep, he doesn’t put the brakes on a stride from the reception point to go vertical so he can catch the ball in a spot the defender can’t reach let alone defend. Instead he continues the route and the ball is defended. He’s a good receiver, but I don’t know that he’ll ever be one of the special ones, and make no mistake – he will be paid like he’s special on his next contract. He is also immature and easily frustrated, and I don’t know that that will change, especially after he gets paid. If someone offers a 1st and 2nd for him, I say take the deal.
Excellent post, very well said, and agree wholeheartedly.
If GB ponied up a 2022 1st & 2nd plus a 2023 1st that would make a temping offer.
You could replace DK with TO in this post and it would have made just as much sense when he was 24. DK is already a game changer, still has tons of upside, and has developed a ton since entering the league.
*chef’s kiss*
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattBowen41/status/1506804124842872835
Signing and interesting IG post:
Looks more like a special teams guy.
That’s either a hefty signing bonus, or a typo (by the tweeter)
Hoping we get Pierce from FL or another BAMF RB in the draft. But if we get extra late picks by trading down, another day 3 option could be Master Teague. He’s been injured most of this past season, but was healthy at the OSU Pro Day on Wed. 3/23. He’s Seahawky size, 5’11” 221 lbs., and ran an official 4.44-second 40. His 27 reps on the bench press and 10-foot, 11-inch broad jump were both better than any running back at the combine.
I wonder where he gets drafted. The pro day numbers and his size/build are basically from a running back lab.
Then you look up how many games he missed and his one full season and the stat line reads: JAG
I’ve not watched anything of his so maybe he was electric two seasons a go.
I like Baker Mayfield. He learned his his lesson. He is a good guy. He is not a Johnny Manziel type person. But unless you think Mayfield can take you to the Super Bowl. What is the point in signing/trading for him? So he takes you from 5-6 wins to 6-8 wins. It would be nearly impossible to get the QB you want in the 2023 draft.
One other point. Just saw on NFL Network. Tyreek Hill’s contract is actually 3years 75mil. Which comes out to 25mil per season.
These next 5 weeks leading to the draft feel like eternity.
Hawks still have big priorities before then, particularly OT positions and DK contract. They will need more cap creativity though to get it done right.
Cutting Carson, Ugo, and Myers post-June 1 nets $11MM. That’s a pretty good tackle right there.
I suspect Poona plays out the contract- which I don’t think he played up to last year. I put a low chance of extension (and potential cap reduction).
Looks increasingly likely that instead of drafting BPA seattle is going to have big needs at oline and will have to press the positions in the draft.
Penning I’m fine with. Little bummed that I don’t see the defensive additions being anything that markedly moves Seattle from the bottom of the league in the same areas they were last year. Unfortunately they have guys all over the defense and legitimately have vacancies at tackle.
I know there’s hope that Curhan is something and while I’m not Mister pff grade as the gospel, his wasn’t very good. Blythe feels like a backup. The guards are poorly aligned. I guess Forsythe is the LT until further notice.
So now instead of fixing the pass rush that’s still largely a mess while having a sloppy oline.
How do you get to the point where you construct a team with so little star power and legitimate problem areas all over? RB, C, LT, RT, DE, where’s the third WR for the modern game?
As currently constructed, they are committed to competition at key spots: QB, OT, and C. Blythe likely has an inside track to start unless they draft CamJerky.
Blythe is likely the starter. I should have said he seems like a backup level player.
I still see competition at DE. Subtract Dunlap and add Harris and Nwosu and the team is only a net positive of 2.5 sacks. That would still leave them in the body five of the league last year. I don’t LOVE Rasheem Green but less his numbers and the team would be the actual bottom of the league.
I also still see major competition at running back. Penny was on fire at the end of last year but has only played 36 of 65 games. I wouldn’t hang my hat on a guy who only saw the field that little.
Blythe is definitely backup level- but so are the rest of the rostered centers.
I’m still expecting them to go DL/linebacker with 2 of first 3 picks.
I think they could roll with Penny/Carson, or draft a RB and cut Carson. Either way, RB will be a mix this year.
Regarding Curhan…
I get the love. He’s a bit of a throwback, a nasty angry run blocker who does a great job of clearing space. But he’s dreadful in pass pro. He simply can’t handle speed.
It’s possible that the reason Dissly was a priority resign is that they intend to cover Curhan with an inline TE on all 02/12 personnel plays, which isn’t a bad idea.
That was my theory on the Diz contract lining up with the tackle market. I also expect to see more 2TE sets.
Probably right about Dissly.
Rob has me stoked on a dozen defensive players. I’m not loving it but if they went full ham and drafted: Penning, Jurgens, and Lucas I wouldn’t cry. It’s not just about upgrading it’s about not dithering forever on both trenches ad infinitum.
Three players to grow together so in 2-3 years the line is formidable. Sure if they all go off you have a tricky problem paying them but maybe you retain two going forward if not all three. The oline can’t be a revolving door forever getting your qb drilled and unable to help the run game.
Looks like Schotty is going to Dallas for a spell…hope he does well.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/03/24/report-cowboys-adding-brian-schottenheimer-to-coaching-staff/
Interesting…
Sounds like on the job training to be a HC
Good for Shotty. Hopefully, “Coffee Gopher” is a role he’ll finally excel at.
Like Rob said in a recent pod, Simms knows his stuff. Will be interesting to see where he goes.
Mustn’t forget:
“#1 QB in this year’s class” ≠ “#1 QB”
There are plenty of teams that want a Tyler Lockett this year (KC, GB, etc.). There are a couple Tyler Lockett’s in this draft. Lockett’s value will go down after this year due to a new QB. He has a large salary and will be older by the time we’re better. Trade him now and get younger and cheaper.
DK’s value value is high right now. If you want to resign him, wait until next year when he has 760 yards receiving and 7 TDs with Drew Lock. If you want to trade him, do it now.
No, they are not trading Lockett.
We’ve been over this. The salary situation is nuts. There’s no reason to do it. No.
Just parsing through Cha’s notes it appears if we trade Tyler the team would be paying him to play for another team.
I get the DK thing. A good agent would say “hey look you’re qb sucks and even with those stats he’s still had a great start to his career.”
Also there’s a very good chance that Lock/Geno/ whomever may still suck and he gets 9-11 tds for 900-1000 yards and watch out. There would be no debate on best start to a WR’s career.
I think they should just pay him and revisit a trade at the end of three seasons. If the market keeps being stupid than DK at 27 going into 28 for 22(ish) million will seem reasonable in a trade.
If our team sucks then we will be playing from behind. Which means we will pass more than we would have otherwise. Which means DK will still get a lot of targets.
I think DK will likely have better stats this year than last.
I don’t know who will be QB. If things stand, probably Lock. He has a nice outside deep ball and can squeeze it into tight windows. DK will be the beneficiary of this part of Lock’s skill set imo. For that, he won’t see a dropoff in numbers and may see an uptick.
Keep DK!! He is perhaps our only superstar on the team. He is young… we can build around him. He is not an aging vet and we dont have a QB who will command ~ $50million a year.
One doesn’t build around WR’s . That is done by QB and stellar lines.
Found this draft chart and liked it. Here I’ve got it sorted by Seattle.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=sea
Thoughts on the Nick Bellore situation? Cap hit, etc.?
PC/JS gave him 2 yrs/$6.8m with $3.65m guaranteed just a year ago…
Further proof that Seattle have become such a dead end franchise at that they have to pay extra to get even middling FAs to sign with them.
Hyder stock is not the same this offseason as it was last offseason.
This isn’t a valid comparison.
Agree. We are paying Justin Coleman pennies on the dollar for what he was offered a few years back by the jets. Every year brings a lot of change in a player’s market value in a league that’s all about “what have you done for me lately?”
I agree. An astute GM would be able to separate stats/production for a player with the support of a really good defense like San Fran’s and correctly project the player’s abilities onto their team(in this case our Hawks). He is clearly not a player capable of creating many sacks/pressures without the help of a good defense around him. The salary San Fran is paying him this off season more accurately reflects his overall monetary worth as an nfl player. Seattle clearly over payed for an under average player and it had negative consequences on our roster and salary cap(including dead cap hit for this year as well).
Rob: not sure if you’ve checked your email but major adjustments coming.
Sorry man I haven’t! Will check them now
Just give them a second chance.
🎵Workin’ on our cap moves
Tryin’ to make some front page drive-in news
Workin’ on our cap moves
In the springtime
Umm, in the sweet springtime 🎶
Does anyone but me wonder if Seattle should consider upgrading the accounting department? Seattle sure burns money quickly and yet other teams seem to employ employ the philosophy “cap schmap,” like it’s modern monetary theory.
My feeling (and this is just my take on it) is that Vulcan has put some restraints on the Seahawks to minimize long term financial commitments and to keep everything tight from a salary and escrow POV.
There probably isn’t a right/wrong method to managing cap. That said, I suspect more teams get effed by bad cap decisions than teams make the SB with good cap decisions.
Rams been putting on a clinic lately. I’m curious to see what Denver does. I’d suspect Russ wished the Hawks would be more aggressive with the cap while he’s in his prime- that’s what the Saints did with Brees. Denver has been careful with the cap like the Hawks. New GM might have a different idea.
I really doubt that. Since Paul Allen died, they’ve extended Russ with the biggest contract in the NFL, matched the crazy Jets contract and then some with Bobby Wagner and gave Jamal Adams enough money to buy a $2000 coffee cup.
I think it’s more of a John/Pete strategy.
Curtis whats our projected Salary cap space next year? If I remember correctly it’s in 140’s. If this is a true reset, spending into the future might not make a ton of sense to them so they can be aggressive next offseason. i’m not sure I buy into that just trying to understand what’s happening and throwing out ideas.
OTC has the Hawks at $93m total cap room, $72m of effective space (effective space is if you take the current contracted players and then fill the rest of the top 51 with scrubs).
They’ve taken some whacks at the 2023 cap since FA started.
$18m on Diggs
$12.76m on Nwosu
$6m on Q Jeff
$5.5m on Woods
Keep in mind also Robbie, they’re about to get a big infusion of cheap talent.
They have something like 17 picks between this year and next.
Thanks dude!
But we’re talking about millions of dollars in what will be a multi-billion dollar transaction. I’m obviously not an expert, but I can’t help but think this isn’t much of an issue in the grand scheme. Especially since we’re talking about buying into a club were membership opportunities don’t happen very often.
+1 for reference to MMT. I love this place.
I have wondered myself something similar, if you simply ranked all NFL free agent signings in a given year – let’s say there were 100 of them in a random year – and listed them in descending order by each player’s average per year, I bet the Hawks would have a whole bunch in the 40-60 range and nothing towards the top, ever. What we don’t do on star power, we make up for in volume. 🙁
I am in no way any kind of an expert on the draft or free agency, I come here for my insights on those matters. In light of me being an average fan, I just wanted to share some of my thoughts on the Seahawks moving forward.
I thought Pete and John’s Mar 16 press confernece was intersting for a couple of reasons.
First, I was impressed with John, he has an opinion and speaks his mind. I always thought Pete had the final say on matters, I’m not so sure anymore. Makes me wonder if this is a new dynamic in their relationship this year.
Second, John tied some of the free agent signings to input from the coaching staff. This gives me hope come the draft that they make better choices than in years past.
As for free agency, I just can’t understand why they didn’t sign an OT early in free agency. It is a clear need and now the options aren’t great.
I don’t have a feeling one way or the other on DK Metcalf. But I just have a feeling they have a price point on resigning him that they won’t be willing to cross. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him traded before the draft.
Rob has made clear that he would like to see them pump their draft resources into the defensive front seven. I would like to see this as well. But I just don’t think they are going to do this, especially with OT being such a big need. Personally I would be happy if they just take the BPA and not have any head scratching moments of past drafts.
If they only win two games next year, let them be against the 49er’s! Listening to the 49er fans whine after losses to the Seahawks just makes the experiense so much more enjoyable! It would be even more so with Russ’s departure.
Tom Pelissero: Former LSU LB Damone Clark is undergoing spinal fusion surgery today after an MRI at the combine revealed a herniated disk, per sources. One of the top linebackers in this year’s NFL Draft, Clark most likely will miss his rookie season, but is expected to make a full recovery.
https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1507043565230301190?s=20&t=hlB0M4uMNBeIaIqW-QEw0Q
Oof- scratch Damone Clark off the list:
https://twitter.com/tompelissero/status/1507043565230301190?s=21
Spinal fusion is no joke.
As a member of the spine surgery club, I cannot see playing professional football after a spinal fusion.
Guys get them and keep playing, but can’t imagine it bodes well for a rookie and any hope of a career in the league as a linebacker.
FWIW, Chris Carson had neck fusion surgery a few months ago and is supposed to return. I think To y Romo and Peyton played after one too. I think Gronk had multiple microdiscectomy surgeries (I know that’s different) even in college.
Have medical training but by no means an expert on spinal fusion, though I have seen many (mostly elderly) patients who’ve had something similar done for them, but also never seen a world class athletes response to this surgery.
My first thought is how far down his spine? If in or near the lumbar region, I could see better chances for a recovery. I say this because one wouldn’t lose the twisting ability or as much spinal flexion/extension as would be in thoracic or certainly cervical spine. Again, please take with a heavy dose of salt.
My football fan self thinks that if this makes him slide to the 4th or later then he’s still worth a shot for upside at a position of need.
Thanks for the insight Beast (or do you prefer Chest?).
I’m guessing interested teams will evaluate the medical with doctors and determine his ability to get back on the field. I think Ojabo doesn’t make it out of R2 with an Achilles injury, but Clark may be more a 6/7 flyer or UDFA.
Feel bad for Damone Clark. Wish the best on his surgery.
I really like the idea of taking stingley or Gardner at 9 with so much depth at DL/LB in the middle rounds. I presume that Derek stingley would be the eye of the that 9 spot, tempting Seattle to go back to the late teens for a team offering a larger haul. With Pcjs reluctantly adding outside f/a’s, I feel like they value to obtain building blocks in this draft and the more ammo the better. I can’t see Pcjs turning down a possible extra 2nd and more in this draft where they tend to make the most traction in rd 2/3.
I personally think DE/LB Boye mafe is the type of untapped potential Pete would want infused in this new scheme. His size profile fits Darrell Taylor and would be make nwosu useful as a hedge for yr 1 albeit a immediate breakout from Mafe. His 41.5in vertical at his pro day proved the explosion I would think they would covet.