Firstly, if you missed it earlier please check out the piece on Byron Murphy and the Seahawks. It’s not often I post two articles in a day but this felt like a worthy moment.
Bob Condotta at the Seattle Times is reporting the following:
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has given the team an April 15 deadline to complete negotiations on a new contract, a source with knowledge of the discussions has confirmed.
April 15 is the day the Seahawks will begin their official offseason workout program, and Wilson is thought to want the deal done by then. It’s also thought the two sides have had some negotiations in recent days with Wilson hoping to get the contract done quickly.
We’ve been writing for a few months now that the Wilson contract saga could get ugly, will be frustrating and will dominate the off-season.
This is simply the latest move in a game of chess.
After Mike Garofolo shared some details from the Seahawks perspective last week, it seems this could be the reaction. If the team wants to try and bide their time, wait until the opportune window to negotiate (which would be just before training camp) — this is Wilson’s counter.
He doesn’t want to play to their schedule. He doesn’t want to wait until after the draft to negotiate (when they might draft someone to offer some minor leverage). He wants their best offer now — not in August.
It benefits the Seahawks to set a deadline right before camp. Then the pressure really is on. There’s no wiggle room when training camp starts. You’re in season mode. You get serious with talks and both teams are pressured to compromise with the clock ticking.
If Seattle offers a league-high contract and he says no — it’d create an awkward dynamic in the locker room. It’d only be human nature for some of his team mates to wonder how committed and dedicated he is to them. Turn down the best deal in NFL history because you want even more? While we’re busting our tails on a much lower salary? It’s not a good look. The fans would notice that too.
A hard deadline like that motivates people to compromise. A soft deadline like April 15th is very different. There’s months until training camp. Where’s the pressure here for either party to compromise?
And make no mistake — both sides will have to compromise.
Had the Seahawks set a deadline like this Wilson’s camp likely would’ve brushed it off or flat-out rejected the team making such an aggressive move. Now the Seahawks have to decide how they want to act. They could call Wilson’s bluff and say, ‘talk to us after the draft’. If they do that it’ll be up to Wilson’s camp to decide whether they want to stick to their guns. The game would continue.
It’s hard to imagine either party, in less than two weeks with no immediate pressure other than a Wilson-imposed and non-binding deadline, will find common ground. It’s not impossible. But is it likely? And before anyone says… ‘just pay the man’. No, just don’t say it. It’s never as simple as that.
If they can’t strike a deal before the deadline — what then? The saga continues presumably. As predicted. With both parties battling for scraps of leverage. With a team determined not to cripple itself financially and a player hoping to max-out his earnings.
April 16th will be a fascinating day.
The #Seahawks and Russell Wilson have been talking contract, and Seattle has the future cap flexibility to get a big deal done … but Wilson’s not the only one they want to extend. @nflnetwork @NFLTotalAccess pic.twitter.com/gQe6UNKw3l
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 2, 2019
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Just going to re-post and expand my thoughts here.
You all know that I’m on the record about paying Wilson whatever he wants up to 40m APY to keep our guy here forever, but I’m hoping that the Seahawks just take Aaron Rodgers’ 4 year extension, update it for 2019 by adding some extra cash, and the two sides can settle for around 35.6m APY (which is just above the percentage of the cap that Aaron Rodgers got last year – 18.90% to 18.91%). That’s where the common ground can be made, the fact that the Packers did all the work.
I think that Wilson wants a 4 year deal, which would set him up for two more contracts if he wants to play for another 10 years. Shorter contracts mean more bites at the ever-expanding cap.
4 years, 142.4 million, 35.6 APY, 60m signing bonus, 105m total guaranteed would be where I think the two sides could meet to suit all parties.
For Wilson, this deal would make him the highest paid QB in all established metrics:
Total money? Exceeds Andrew Luck’s 6yr/139m contract.
APY? Exceeds Aaron Rodgers (see above).
Percentage of the Cap? Exceeds Aaron Rodgers by .01% (see above).
Signing Bonus? Exceeds Aaron Rodgers’ 57.5m.
Fully Guaranteed Money? Exceeds Matt Ryan’s 100m.
For the Seahawks, this deal would be probably be a bargain after Mahomes destroys the market. When the legal gambling money hits the cap, it could also explode, further making this deal seem cheap by comparison.
However, if the Seahawks want 5 years, I don’t think this deal gets done by Wilson’s deadline.
I doubt the issue will be number of years. I think the issue will be APY and guaranteed money. Wilson has to be realistic there.
What’s not realistic about the 4 year deal above?
I pretty much just took Aaron Rodgers’ deal, added some money to reflect the elevation in cap from 2018 to 2019, and called it good. Percentages check out across the board.
I can’t see the Seahawks not willing to get a deal done over some guaranteed money (Wilson is an iron man who will probably start every game unless catastrophically injured) or APY.
I didn’t pass any comment on the deal above, merely asserted that whether it’s 3,4 or 5 years. I don’t think the number of years will be a big point with either party. It’ll all be down to APY and guaranteed cash and whether they can find common ground there.
And yes — the Seahawks will resist unrealistic demands on guaranteed money and APY.
But what is unrealistic about the deal above? I don’t think anything there is unrealistic for either side.
I’ll say it again — I’ve not passed ANY comment on the deal above.
You said the two parties might struggle to compromise on the number of years. I simply disagreed and said the problem will be agreeing on APY and guaranteed cash and that Wilson will need to be realistic in both senses to strike a deal.
Agreed APY and guarantees are going to the central issues.
The Seahawks solely have the abilty to expand Russell’s salary and therefore APY over the next two to three seasons in particular. And they can provide guarantees.
Putting extra salary into this season and giving him a huge signing bonus right now is also one of their bargaining chips.
And getting a signing bonus spread over the life of the desk would be smart on their part.
Smart move by Russell to ask for the timetable to move up. But reinforces my belief that the decision to stay has been made. And that will only change if the money isn’t given to him. And we do have the money to sign him. So I think it gets done.
Russell isn’t trying to do Frank Clark any favors here haha. Setting him up for possible two years on the tag.
He hasn’t made a decision on anything other than he wants to start talks now.
Wilson has won a grand total of 2 wild card games in 4 years since signing his last big deal and you think it is a good idea to pay him $36.5 mil or up to $40 mil per year which is like 25-28% of the teams cap space.
Seems like a fantastic idea. You sound like his delusional agent. You cite Rodgers and Ryan. How have those deals worked out for the teams since they were signed? Oh that’s right they never even made the playoffs.
40m would only be 21% of the cap this year, and probably under 20% the following year, depending on how the cap rises with legal gambling on the horizon.
It’s not Wilson’s fault the defense couldn’t stop Dak from converting 3rd and 10+ with his legs at the end of the Wild Card game this year. Other than that, the team has been unlucky in running into the team that advanced to the Super Bowl when they’ve been in the playoffs.
Wilson gives the team the best chance to succeed because he gives you the most tickets to the playoffs. Only once have we not made the playoffs under Wilson. Just need to get luckier with how it turns out.
They’re not going to pay him $40m a year.
They just aren’t.
I never said that they would, just that pointing out Trevor’s math is literally wrong. 40m APY is nowhere close to 25%+ of the cap.
Sorry you are right it is 21% that makes so much better considering the highest % of the cap an SB winning QB in 20+ years since the cap has existed is the very first year of the cap when Steve Young was 13% and only 4 times has it exceeded 11% (Brady once, Eli once, Peyton twice).
But sure let’s pay Russ 21% of the cap because that has been such a formula for success and he is so much better than every othe quaterback to play the game.
You keep repeating this stat like a broken record. Even Rob has criticized it because it’s relevance is not as much as you’d think.
Come on dude, find something else.
If that stat is not relevant what is? 25 years + of data and back testing. There is no other stat required.
Please give me one stat that remote shows a team can be successful paying its QB 20% of the cap. I would love to hear anything that supports the argument. Anything at all.
Trevor is not relevant because the game has completely changed in 25 years.
Again — this will be a more relevant point in a few years when players like Mahomes and Wilson do get paid mega money.
For now all we can prove is two things. Tom Brady is flipping great, there are some potential benefits to drafting well at QB and then receiving a short term benefit in terms of cap relief (before inevitably paying the QB) and you can sustain a great QB (eg Drew Brees) if you draft well.
And here’s the other reason why none of this makes sense. If Wilson signs a $25m a year extension. Bargain right? So they save $10m. Or what constitutes not enough to even get in the discussion to sign guys like Kwon Alexander. They’re hardly missing out. You draft well, you develop well, you can pay your top guys.
I think a more viable argument is that the business value of quarterback is priced based on effect of average win probability than the effect super bowl win probability. The economic success of an NFL team is much more differentiated between a bad team and a good team than a good team and a super bowl winning team. I would suggest that most teams in the NFL are trying to become good at the expense of becoming great simply because that’s how everyone keeps their jobs. We’ve all seen the Patriots make economically savvy moves that no other team in the league would make both because Bill is un-fireable and he’s optimizing for super-bowls instead of wins.
A great QB like Wilson can turn a decent team into a good/playoff team. However, once you reach super-bowl level competition, you need to become an outlier and QB arbitrage is one the more effective and difficult ways of achieving this. The free-agent quarterback market is probably too efficient to create as significant an outlier advantage as the rookie market. But the higher possible reward is matched with higher risk.
I would also argue that Wilson has made the Seahawks consistently good which is probably antithetical to how many teams become great through the draft. A team trying to become great probably needs to have some rough seasons, to acquire enough draft capital to become an outlier. A first overall pick, based on the JJ chart, is worth more than the entire Seahawks draft capital in these past years.
To be honest, I’m probably happier if the Seahawks sign Russel and continue to build a defense but the competitor in me wants the Seahawk to find every outlier advantage.
Ask yourself this was Russ a better QB in year #2 and 3 than he is now? Of course not he is much better QB now.
So why did he go to SBs then and has not even gotten a sniff since. It is simple the Hawks has an incredibly deep and talented roster over all. Much like Philly when they one thier SB they had a DL that was 8 deep.
How did they do that? They had the cheapest QB in the league. Then the paid Russ and made him the focus and the team lost its depth and has not gotten a sniff of a deep playoff run since.
No stats required to see something so clear.
Trevor… the Seahawks had stars at every position.
Then ‘that’ play happened. It destroyed the chemistry of the team. Players started calling it the ‘titanic’.
That’s why they’ve not had a sniff since. Because they imploded from within after ‘that’ play.
Not because Wilson got paid and they suddenly had a crappy team.
I was looking about same thinking 4 years, 50 signing bonus and 90 guaranteed, I think Russel wants to be here now more than ever. I believe with this coaching staff giving him more control on the plays and how how it happened that he finish the year 35TDs and 7 Int. and he won games. Don’t think RW doesn’t want to have the record for the winningest QB. That would seal his fate as a Hall of Famer. From day one he has always said it all about winning.
Russell has the record for the most wins for a QB from years 2-7. If he wins 11 games this year, he’ll tie Brady for Year 8. If he wins 15 total games between 2019 and 2020, he’ll get the record for Year 9.
He’s on a hall-of-fame trajectory.
There is nothing a team could ask of their QB and get what we have with Russel Wilson. I think he’s wants a deal and he’s willing to Ride with PC/JS and this coaching staff who have giving more decision on the field now. He has his best year last year with 35Tds and 7 interceptions and he’s played every game in his career so far. He has uncanny ability to know when to get down or run out of bounds and not take the big hit. He has the leadership in the 4th quarter to lead to comeback wins and now we have a kicker that can only get better this year. They will pay him and I bet he makes the most APY for the year coming up. he will get more than 80 million guarantee so he sets the new mark higher than Cousins and that will reset market going forward for franchise QB. I just think he like to continue till the JS/PC coaching program comes to and ends. If there was a player that bought into Pete’s program you would have to say Russel Wilson was the most important player. If he signed after camp he can go to Califoria and have his group workouts and throwing to WR and RBs. That was something I always liked about him.
I loved Russ being in tune with Pete as well. I also love his toughness and durability which are off the charts. I repeat I love Russ the player and think he is an awesome QB. I love that he is a Seahawk and hope he always is.
But if they pay him $35-40 mil APY I would be willing to bet anything we have seen the one and only SB in the PC era unless the cap doubles in the next 4 years. No team had ever won paying a QB that much of the cap ever and Russ is not going to change that.
Please Trevor, stop falling for the red herring of ‘No team had ever won paying a QB that much of the cap ever’.
Quite aside from the fact salaries have only recently increased to this level making this a vastly premature statement — we can’t narrow this down to merely ‘Super Bowl winners’.
Otherwise let’s just say the only way to reach a Super Bowl is to have Tom Brady. Or find another thing that backs this up but doesn’t tell the whole picture.
Come back in 10 years and let’s talk about how many SB’s Wilson, Mahomes, Wentz etc contend for having got paid mega money. If cheap rookies are winning all the titles by then it’ll be a fair point.
I don’t think they’ll go a dime over $35m a year personally. But that’s not going to be what determines success or failure of this team.
We will have to agree to disagree on this Rob. Nothing has changed the % of the cap is he % of the cap. Salaries going up makes no difference I am not arguing the $ value of his deal only the % of cap space.
I am not arguing you need Brady either. The biggest % of the cap he has ever taken up winning an SB is 11%.
I will gladly look back in 10yrs and I hope I am wrong if the Hawks do pay Russ because I want them to win multiple SB.
Brady does not take a discount because he wants to save Bob Kraft $. He does becuar he knows even the Pats and Bilicheck can’t win if he takes up too much of the cap space and he values that more than maxing out his earning potential.
Of course salaries going up makes a difference. As does the way the game has switched dramatically towards the passing game which is the point I was making there. The quarterback is more important than ever.
You’re missing my point on Brady. I’m using an example that you could equally just say, “you can’t make a SB without Brady” because there is data showing that recently he always makes the SB. Neither your point or the Brady point even scratches the surface of the entire debate.
Because here’s the crux of the matter. Your argument basically says KC, Seattle etc are all better off trading their awesome QB’s and that they’ll be more competitive without Mahomes, Wilson etc. And yet you’re arguing this point over less money than it would cost to sign a bang average LB on the open market these days. That isn’t right. This money thing is a massive red herring.
I thought this way Trevor…But no elite or even good QB will take 25m APY deal now.
So you have 3 options:
1, Sign Russ somewhere between 30 and 40 million
2, Draft a QB and hope he doesn’t sucks bad (because then you’d be off chasing rookie QBs for the next x years)
3, Sign a mediocre-bad QB for 20-25 mil APY, which would stink…but of course you’d have +10-15 mil
I don’t feel there is a harder position than QB to draft for or replace. 10-15 mil is a solid/OK/good DE’s salary. You can get easily that type of player from the draft. Or a high end WR. Or a good OG.
Replacing Russ would be pretty hard, or at least very risky.
I feel if he wants 33-35-36 mil APY and 70-75% GTD, pay the man. It’s not risk-aversion just roster management. If he wants 40 or more then trade him. Not because of the +4-5m, but that shows he doesn’t want to compromise a bit and this would create bad precedent for their FAs
Trevor has a valid point. Time will tell though.
I repeat 2 wild card wins in 4 years since signing his first extension. This team was a lot better with dominant D, great run game and Russ as a game manager.
That combination is not possible when you have the highest paid QB in the league. The Hawks tried making Russ the focal point and that year they did not even make the playoffs. That is why Pete reverted back to running the ball last year.
What am I missing here?
Is there a glut of HoF defenders in their prime on their way into Seattle I wasn’t made aware of? This is kind of one of those bird in the hand things…Wilson isn’t the reason we don’t have a dominant defense anymore — age, injuries, and drama are. We didn’t lose many star defenders by paying Wilson. We lost guys the likes of Irvin to overpays on the open market. Give me a franchise QB over marginal defensive talent at top dollar anyway. Even with the glut of picks you would get for trading Wilson, the chances of hitting on those picks and recreating the Legion of Boom-era is slim — especially when you have to drop a high pick to replace Wilson. How we draft the next few years will determine if we create a comparable defense again — Wilson or no Wilson.
That’s the thing teams don’t win Super Bowls paying thier QB a disproportionate amount of the cap and I mean never not one single time.
You dont need a HOF QB to get to or win the SB that has been proven many times.
So what would this look like in practical terms? Wilson’s money this year could have equated to Tre Flowers and keeping Justin Coleman. Not exactly a compelling alternative. Obviously you can’t discount the picks Wilson could command; so a high 1st and 2nd this year, and an unknown 1st and 2nd next year. I would have supported it only because the deal seemed to be an unavoidable nightmare, and mostly because I think Murray is special. I’m pretty sure that’s off the table now; you would only do this because you found a quarterback you are extremely sold on. Anything else is franchise malpractice — and it’s still a huge risk.
What players on the Seahawks D do we have to get us back to dominance? There’s no Richard Sherman waiting to take over for Trufant, no Kam waiting to take over for Tatupu, no Brandon Browner to slot in from the CFL and be an enforcer.
The years of the Seahawks being led by the defense are over.
They won’t reach the 2013 levels again but the Seahawks are going to feature their defense. They started a reset one year ago and that will continue with this next draft. They’re building it up. So saying they won’t be led by the defense again in the future is premature.
You are missing the fact that the team aged, and the personalities clashed, and there was no effective post-Lynch running game. Almost all teams need a reset after reaching the pinnacle, with the rare exception of Golden State or the Pats. And those franchises are exceptional because Kevin Durante and the others are giving a discount … as is Brady, because they see that repeated winning gives them access the revenue streams over and beyond what they can make solely via salary.
Not sure that gets it done – we know each new contract at a position sets a new benchmark. Rodgers deal got him $57.5m signing bonus and $98m guaranteed. Realistically we’d have to give a bonus of $60-65m and guarantee of $110-120m.
My unprofessional estimate is 5 year $180m ($36m APY) – $63m signing bonus, $123.1m guaranteed. New cap figures (used overthecap):
2019 – $5m base 100% guaranteed – $20.9m bonus pro rate – $25.9 cap hit
2020 – $23.4m base 100% guaranteed – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $36m cap hit
2021 – $23.4m base 100% guaranteed – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $36m cap hit
2022 – $25m base – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $37.6m cap hit
2023 – $27m base – $12.6m bonus pro rate – $39.6m cap hit
2024 – $27m base – $27m cap hit
I’m not perfectly in tune with contract dealings but this could end up being a nice meet in the middle deal, Russ sets new benchmarks for APY, guarantees, and bonus, our current cap only goes down by ~ $1m, no guarantees after year 3. It doesn’t look like the Seahawks do roster bonuses so that could change some math (but also lower base salaries) and maybe Russ wants guarantees further out than year 3 – but I feel like this could be a fair deal for both sides. Could be a little too optimistic though.
Wilsons huge contract doesnt affect the team so much right now or in a few years. It will become a problem if you have to pay 5 all-pro defenders big money like they did with Sherm, Earl, Bobby, Bennett, KJ, Kam… We dont have a big money DEF now.. we didnt lose our big money defense because of RW.. We lost them because they wanted top dollar, but were no longer All Pro. The talent did not match the money. so right now we have an expensive offence(mainly because of RW) and a mediocre expenditures on defense across the board. A Frank Clark deal would tip the scales a bit.. I see both sides of the argument…
You dont want a high cap number on 1 player. Theres a reason Tom Brady was never the highest payed QB in the league.. he wants to win more than he wants massive money.. I dont believe the seahawks will be like every team that pays a QB huge money and then is terrible.. When PCJS build the roster it will more competitive than the recent Packers, Ravens with joe flacco money, Giants, Falcons..
Its just gonna be hard to have superstars on the Def and offense ‘IF’ they can find and develop the same level talent they previously had on the defense… but right now they dont have that talent yet.. So far just Jarren Reed and Frank Clark.. New contract for bobby.. Most likely have doug baldwins money come off the books.. only time will tell.
Saving money on RW rookie contract helped them fill out the defense with veteran depth, acquire Percy Harvin, and keep the highest payed Oline together for that one season.. and payed marshawn decent money..
The reason Brady isn’t the top paid QB is because he’s married to a gazillionaire and the Pats do an exquisite job promoting his other business interests.
This. He also understands that the “Tom Brady revenue stream / brand” is tied to winning and more specifically winning as part of the Belichek – Pats brand. His endorsements probably dwarf his salary. His image and name recognition is massive, and he’s not even an attention whore. Sure he could jump ship — and relocate his kids, family, entourage etc — for ten million more per annum in salary but that strategy is inferior to the one he’s developed.
I think you’re underestimating bradys drive to win.. yeah Giselle has money.. he has tons of money too.. but hes said that he wants to win and at the end of the day.. even tho i hate brady. He has 6 rings.. that he can flaunt.. rodgers can flaunt a huge bank account.. and 1 ring?.. nope.
Brady doesn’t turn down more money to ‘win’ though. New England don’t make splashy moves in FA. They’re hardly ever hard against the cap. You’d never look at a Patriots roster and think…. ‘wow, what a team’. Brady wins because he’s Brady and he’s coached by a legend. The pair — coach and QB — win because they are the best to ever do it. Brady still gets his money. It’s a little bit less than some of his peers. But he’s not making that choice because he’s out of pocket. He makes his money. The team helps him do that. And he has more money than any human would ever need because his wife is a living legend in her own right.
So is he not going to show up to OTAs if the don’t have a deal done? Is that why the 15th is the deadline?
I personally am glad he did that. I hope if the Hawks can’t strike a deal and he threatens to hold out for training camp that he goes on the market immediately.
The QB is supposed to be the team leader and has to be at OTAs.
You called it Rob the drama begins.
If the Seahawks offer to pay him a bit more than Rodgers — then it’ll be telling if he turns that down. If he wants to reset the market this deadline is a waste of time. Might as well set it for April 2nd. If both parties are willing to compromise it can get done. But they have to be willing.
We’ll see what happens. I hope this saga has a conclusion by April 16th, the day after the deadline. But I’m sceptical.
Agreed I am to the point that I don’t care if they sign him or trade him I just don’t want the team and fans to be held hostage and have to put up with 2-3 years of media drama like Washington and Cousins.
I share some of those sentiments. I would much rather Wilson be signed up. I found the 2009-2012 years on the blog quite taxing. Everything was about quarterbacks. Everyone had their favourite. People became tribal about their guys. I’d prefer to avoid all of that — let alone the problems that come with being one of those teams who doesn’t have a great QB.
That said — there’s nothing worse than this saga dragging on forever, dominating headlines, irritating the heck out of everyone and creating just as many arguments (pay the man vs it’s not that simple vs just move on and save money).
An April 15th deadline only really achieves one thing. Talks. Which may be a good thing but only if both parties can compromise. If they can’t, nothing will happen. And I doubt the Seahawks will trade Wilson just because he decided to set a deadline like this.
I think Wilson doesn’t want to have to field questions about his contract during OTAs and Mandatory Mini-Camp.
He’ll show up to camp regardless – I can’t see him torpedoing his brand in Seattle by holding out.
He’ll get asked just as many questions if he doesn’t agree a deal before April 15th. Especially if he turns down the chance to be the highest paid player in the league.
The whole mini camp angle of leverage is betting big Wilson wants to play in Seattle more than getting more money. Furthermore it’s betting big on how his teams and fans will feel in a media influenced back and forth to make one side feel uncomfortable.
If I’m RW, the worst case scenario is I get the money I want on a new team. Is that really so bad (from his point of view)? Seahawks are playing chicken, hoping Wilson wants to be in Seattle enough to forfeit several million dollars per season. If they don’t strike a deal this off-season, it’ll be apparent where Wilson’s head is at because surely hawks would have made a league high salary offer – and it wasn’t enough. Now what? Look for a trade partner, but what if you can only get two firsts (as that is what the tag would net hawks anyways) as opposed to three firsts and some change this year? I suppose it’s too late for that by now anyways, I just hope this doesn’t turn into the earl thomas blunder all over again
If they can’t get a deal done before april 15th…trade Russ to OAK for two first this year + two first next year…trade for Brissett (3rd 2019+3rd 2020) and give him 10-15mil per year on 3-4 year contract…if they see he isnt the guy they can use next year 3 first round picks to take QB…
Brissett? Might as well keep the 3rds, roll with a scrub and increase chances of a higher native first for 2020.
Wilson trying to impose a deadline before they potentially draft a QB…I see what he did there.
Very interesting indeed.
It basically means, that Wilson does not want to play on the franchise tag, contrary to the argument, that it’s his best mean to maximoze earnings. If he is saying he is not willing to play under tag, how can he use the math behing the cost of the tag?
How does it sound, I want 109 mil fully guaranteed, because that’s what i am gonna get if tagged 3 years in a row, so let’s agree on that before April 16?
As soon as i read seattletimes, i was scrambling here to see if Rob has already his take on this.
You never disappoint, Rob!
“It basically means, that Wilson does not want to play on the franchise tag, contrary to the argument, that it’s his best mean to maximoze earnings.”
I disagree with this Rokas. I think this merely means Wilson doesn’t want to play to Seattle’s schedule on talks. He wants things to get serious now, not in August. But I don’t think this changes anything in terms of how Wilson will be approaching the situation. I think he just wants Seattle’s best offer now, not in a few months.
yeah.. i think its a tactic to get somethin done before the draft since he knows the seahawks look into QBs in the draft no matter where they may go in the first round..
Im mainly curious to see if the seahawks do select a QB in the top 3 rounds.. Will RW be impossible to sign? if hes wants an April 15th deadline thats before the draft.. is it to the gain a little bit of leverage? Or will he see it as the seahawks not fully committing to him and a new deal and force is way out..
it could go either way..
I dont believe he would force his way out.. Its against his persona.. Im just merely asking the question what is he willing to do to get what he wants. He has built himself up as a guy thats team first and loyal persons.. But if the PCJS select a QB after he put a deadline for talks.. how far will it go? Usually when it goes back and forth, it will escalate until someone is incapable of giving in..
I don’t think he would be willing to ask for a trade or something like that if the Hawks draft a QB. That would seem like he’s running from a competition.
Signing Russ before the draft would be huge for the Hawks too.
Now if they trade back once with KC for example and Grier is still there at #29 for example, do they trade him? Or try to trade back again and risk missing on him? If they draft him they might lose out on Lawrence or Hill, or Collier.
If they extend Russ they can just forget drafting a QB in this year’s draft and focus on other positions. If they feel they can’t extend Russ they can just “go all in” on drafting a QB they like
If anything I’d say this increases the likelihood he’s comfortable playing on the tag. I think Rob hit the nail on the head when he started talking about the optics of imposed deadlines a few weeks ago.
Mark Rodgers and Russell’s camp realized they’d be granting Seattle some PR leverage if they allowed the Seahawks to dally all offseason only to set their own deadline prior to training camp (when the onus would be on Russell to accept a fair offer or face scrutiny).
This way they shift the conversation to, “We wanted to get a deal done and they messed around too much. Now in order to properly focus on this season for the fans we need to suspend talks until next year.”
I think what Rob said weeks ago still applies — unless the Seahawks offer stupid money, they’ll be content to play on the franchise tag and start the clock ticking toward an eventual mega, mega deal. This deadline only shifts the narrative of blame away from Wilson’s camp and onto the Seahawks (once again, as with the leaked Shefter report from a month or so ago).
Gonna repost this at the bottom of the thread, too.
Wilson’s camp set an April 15th deadline, but what did they say happens if there’s no deal done? I mean there’s no way Russell Wilson of all people is skipping a chance to work at OTA’s right?
His “No time for sleep” mindset says he’s gotta be at OTAs but his agent says he’s gotta send a message.
Right so again…
How do you have a deadline is it if there’s no consequence if it passes?
Sorry in advance Rob…
How do you have a deadline if there’s no consequence if it passes?
If only there was no problem with passing a deadline on Brexit.
I couldn’t resist
The only consequences in this instance would be Wilson refusing to talk for the rest of the year. Which would be weird and inexplicable. Why not carry on talking into the summer? It’s too early for this to be a threatening deadline. I think Wilson just wants to get talks going when the Seahawks prefer to wait. And that’s fine — but he has to be willing to compromise. And if he isn’t — it’s a weird tactic. Because then he just looks like a guy who gambled on an aggressive deadline and lost and now the team and the player have to deal with the consequences.
What I think is going on is that they Seahawks know that Russell is a loyal guy and doesn’t want to miss even one workout. As a result I’ll bet he feels he compromised last renewal by taking the best offer on the table JUST before training camp.
So this time he (hopefully) doesn’t want to let it come to that again and is trying to get the Seahawks to show more/all of their cards by April 15th.
That said since there’s no consequence if April 15th passes with no deal, the artificial deadline doesn’t mean much. Now if RW starts sitting out practices that will certainly get the Seahawks attention, but I just don’t see that in his nature unless the Seahawks/RW relationship is fractured beyond the beyond, and it certainly isn’t at this point.
Or he’s trying to force a trade to a preferred destination (New York, Miami, Las Vegas) before teams draft their next QBs.
If it’s a deal by 4/15 or contract + 2 tags, I think they have to move him.
When and what will be the Seahawks best offer?
I don’t think he’s trying to force a trade. That’s not Wilson’s style.
I think he just wants to talk now and not on Seattle’s schedule.
As we’ve been saying for some team — both teams are trying to win a PR battle of sorts and they’re also trying to get leverage wherever they can.
Funny how we all interpret things so differently. But I am with mishima – the only reason for RW to post this deadline is to set up a trade pre-draft. He gets the best offer Seattle is willing to offer by 4/15, (or even if they choose not to offer) and he indicates his unwillingness to sign or play at those numbers.
This tells Seattle that they have to either tag him the next two years, or trade him, as a long-term deal will simply not be made (in Seattle).
There is no other reason for RW to make this deadline public. He knows (like the rest of us) that this is prime time for a trade, maximizing value for him and for the Seahawks.
Wilson isn’t setting up a trade.
He just wants to start talks now not on Seattle’s schedule.
I’m going to choose to see this as nothing but a positive. I had pretty much resigned myself to Wilson playing the franchise tag game. If your asking price price is in the North-of-$40M range, then I’m not sure what there is to be gained by dropping the desire to get a deal done in two weeks today randomly. A desire to get a deal done quickly doesn’t jive with asking for $7M APY more than Rodgers got just last year. If you’re being unreasonable and trying to play the pragmatism card at the same time, it would be fair pool for the team to answer by putting his asking price out there. That wouldn’t make for good aesthetics at all. When it all boils down, all I really want is a deal in the realm of sanity. This seems like a reason for optimism on that front.
Does setting an early deadline express a desire to ‘get a deal done early’ though?
Or does it express a desire to start talks early because it benefits your negotiating position and prevents the team from potentially gaining the upper hand later in the year?
Probably a little of both. I do think this move takes away some later leverage from the team. I think the cost of doing so is moving off your absurd, top-level ‘posturing’ asking price that you generally would stick to until there is any kind looming deadline though. My fear — per your own logic and math — was that Wilson actually had a viable path to MAKING that posturing asking price; not once, but twice, by getting tagged twice, and then hitting free agency. I’m not one of those people who thinks paying a QB top money is a death knell to fielding a competitive roster, I just know there is a practical limit. I don’t really see how this deadline lends to exceeding that limit.
Jody Allen is the wildcard. Does she want to pay a small fortune to Russell Wilson? Then Frank Clark, Jarran Reed, and Bobby Wagner?
How much leeway does John Schneider and the Seahawks really have to write those big checks?
This is a business. I won’t be surprised if we see some blockbuster trades to avoid paying those contracts.
I’m pretty sure Jody Allen will do whatever Pete Carroll recommends. The first meaningful thing she did was extend his contract.
I think JS will be pritty pissed with this dead line…he doesnt know where is his head these days because of draft and now he need to think about this deal…
Russ: I want the deal before 16th of April.
JS: Russ, we love you, you know that, you are the most important player for the franchise, but I really don’t have time for this now, i have to work the draftboard, so that we can get better next year. We only have 4 picks this year, I can’t afford to miss this year.
* Also, JS : turns 4 picks into 7, and drafts W. Grier with pick No. 40.
Russ: so that’s how you get better, having a limited atock and using a first pick for a QB?
JS: Russ, you have till the start of the preaseason to sign the deal, or I’ll use 14 picks next year for us to get better.
lol
JS: your the highest paid QB in the league. Say hello to our 1st pick HB Josh Jacobs and our 2nd pick Damien Harris.
Back to back Bama RB’s in the draft, one year after taking a RB in the 1st?!?!?
So, no WR help, just going to pay top dollar to be the best hander-offer in the NFL?
I can only imagine the chaos that would ensue.
theres no guarantee that will grier is their guy.. A lot of people have him moving up recently as possibly the 2nd best QB in the draft.. Or at least the 2nd best QB in the draft range thats not top 20.. which could make him a top 50 pick..
???
In other news, looks like the AAFL has hit the proverbial iceberg and has begun to sink. I’m bummed cause I really would’ve liked to see a development league succeed. Was planning to attend the final Fleet game too so there goes that. Not really interested in the XFL either. Sad day in football in my opinion.
The only developmental league that will remain solvent for the NFL is college and the CFL. It’s a bummer but not a huge surprise.
Vince McMahon always wins. Always.
Vince to the AAF: HaHaaaa! How’s your territory doing pal?!?
Haha, knew I could count on you here Vol.
“Thought you could undercut me, Ebersol? Dammit pal, you should know better! Guess what? You’re FIIIRRREEEDDDDD!”
LOL.
‘Ebersol you just opened the floodgates to your own personal HEEEELLLLL!’
JS was on the radio yesterday. To answer Salk’s question on the importance of a franchise QB he said that there is no more important pieces than a QB and a head coach. He will cover his bases because he comes from that Green Bay school of thinking regarding QB’s, but i just can’t see him trading Russ unless he has absolutely no other choice. I think this will be a tedious, annoying saga but JS is going to let this play out as long as he can in hopes he can keep one of the 2 hardest positions to acquire.
Not sure Schneider really learned from Green Bay’s approach to having a legit developmental QB prospect behind the starter. Wilson has been around a while and we have usually had bums backing him up. It’s really negligent. In John’s defense finding QBs is a bit of a challenge….
Could Seattle’s other looming contract negotiations be an impetus here? Clark, Reed, and Wagner won’t be getting franchise QB money but all are in line for substantial $$$. Could Wilson’s camp be looking at the other members of the “Fab Four” and be thinking that he could get more money now than after the team starts re-signing other players to big contracts?
Or else what, Russ?
I have no idea what this means for the Seahawks, Russell, or the fans. I just hope that something does happen on the 15th. Like the earl thomas situation last year I just want it to end.
I know Grier is a favourite option for the Hawks here on the blog but I think he ends up being a top 20 pick based on the buzz and is the fourth Q off the board before Daniel Jones.
I could see either Cincy or Washington taking him if Murray, Lock and Haskins are off the board.
Will Grier is merely a fit for what they like to do. It’s very possible he goes too early. But I think they will like his play.
I agree I think they will like him to. I was just saying I think he will be gone before they even pick. Seems like his stock is rising and despite his Senior Bowl struggles after watching him more. You are dead on with him being a fit for what the Hawks like to do on offense.
After Kyler Murray I would think he would be QB2 on the Hawks board.
Media have been pumping Grier stock that last 2 weeks. “Sources” say he is rising fast… etc etc
There were reports of 2 AFC teams with more than casual interest in him.
Rob might of got to him first, but the NFL GMs are hot on his trail now.
Love the deadline. I don’t know why we want to pay a QB that throws the fewest passes in the NFL & fewest of all QB’s in the playoffs? It makes no sense.
What makes sense is to pay RW huge $$ to a 5 yr deal and by year 3 if will be around 10th in the league. Then you make RW the focal point of the O like he should’ve been over the past 3 years.
You get a big receiver, a power guard and a RT stud and you score 32 pts / game.
If Pete and John don’t want that, then trade him for draft picks and go with a new QB. Problem = Pete is getting older and older and more stubborn. He doesn’t want to rebuild. So change the run run pass approach and unleash the greatest football weapon the Seahawks have ever had. Russell Wilson.
It’s really a simple solution and if I was Russ, I wouldn’t even want to sign with us. Why? He is a HOF talent that is being treated with kid gloves. I would loathe Pete Carroll if I was Russ.
Pay him or trade him. Miami, Buffalo, Cincy, Denver and Oakland in the AFC would do back flips. SD, Pitt, NE should be looking very soon. Gmen. And if you’re the Saints, you should be looking. He’d be welcomed in Detroit & TB would definitely bite.
IF I was Russ, I’d force a trade. He’s wasting his HOF career handing the ball to Carson and Penny and throwing play action to Lockett. Btw, Angry Doug is just about done. The OL is still in turmoil. Why would he want to sign with us?
Sean I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say good April Fools joke a day late!
You were happy enough with RW handing off to Lynch when we went to back to back Superbowls, and wasn’t slinging it around (check the stats for those years).
He is the greatest offensive weapon we have had, but do you think that all he should do is sling it 40 plus times a game? What makes him great is…..well, we all know what he does – everything. He doesn’t need to put up video game stats.
One final note – the o line isn’t it turmoil. It’s a good o line. Not great, but not the garbage it has been the last few years.
No, I never was happy with our system. Arguably, the best Offense was 2012 when we didn’t unleash Wilson in the Divisional loss to the Falcons until we were down 20-0 at Half. Russ showed as a rookie that he could carry the offense. Threw for 375 yds vs Falcons on incredible passes as a rookie. The training wheels haven’t come off.
It’s depressing. We had a 3 Lombardi hoisting team that was FORTUNATE to win 1. The NFCCG was uh, forunate. Down 17-13, Pete going for a 53 yd impossible kick that Haushka had to tell PC he couldn’t make. Savior Russ forces an offsides and 4th down TD to Kearse for a 20-17 lead. Again, it’s always Russ. RW was superb in the SB win.
Pay the guy 5 years, $175mm with $125 mm guaranteed.
I consider an OL with 2 below avg players in LG Iupati and RT Ifedi and a decent Center with an oft Injured RG as TURMOIL. It’s not very good.
If RW isn’t going to be the epicenter of the Offense, then trade him because he’s not worth $22mm if we use him to hand off in RUN RUN PASS mode like we did vs Dallas in the playoffs. How Pete and John can’t see this is a bit concerning.
It’s a waste of everyone’s time and better to realize it before making a mistake than 20/20 when it becomes obvious to everyone. Pay and Epicenter or Trade. It’s pretty simple to see…..
Rob,
What do you like about Grier? Have you done an evaluation with a link? I will search.
I haven’t seen much of him but of course I saw him televised vs Iowa State. Go figure.
Thanks.
I’ve done a few pieces on him. Iowa State was his worst game.
This fulfils two tasks:
1) It puts pressure on the Hawks to not draft a QB
2) If they don’t respond to the deadline, RW will put himself onto the 2020 FA market, early
What is sure is, the Hawks need to prepare to pay an awful lot of money to keep RW playing in PNW.
They cannot win this. Even if they offer $40m/y now, RW would say 45. Too much money for a quarterback, franchise QB or not, likely to never see the SB again, if he doesn’t battle his slow-start-habit.
There is only one possible move for the franchise to take control of the situation… flying to Oakland asap.
I don’t think the Seahawks will feel any pressure from this regarding the draft. And if Wilson thinks this puts him into the 2020 FA market early (he won’t) — there’s this thing called the franchise tag.
This is all about Wilson wanting talks now not on Seattle’s schedule.
He will not play on the franchise tag. We should forget this idea. While it’s possible technically, in the sense Kirk Cousins did it, it is not destined to bear fruits for both the team or RW.
FA market is a bit the wrong term for what I wanted to say… he puts himself on the “available” shelf @ nflshopping.com.
He’ll play on the franchise tag 100% if he shuts down talks after April 15th and no team ponies up a mega trade offer in 12 months.
Russell Wilson is part of a union. If he gets all that he’s worth + more it benefits members of the union because it drives average wages up. If he offers a home-town discount he offends the union ( teammates) since he keeps wages flat. No teammate will be bothered if Russell holds out for everything he can get. It’s business.
This posturing by Wilson’s agents shouldn’t affect the team’s plan. Franchise Wilson until you can either sign him to a reasonable contract or trade him for appropriate compensation. The Seahawks still hold all the cards.
Since when would turning down the richest contract in NFL history constitute a ‘hometown discount’.
Come on.
The market deserved resetting last year. Some second-tier quarterbacks had gotten the process started by surpassing the first-tier ones, and Rodgers was up for a deal. GB already blazed this trail. Nobody in the NFL deserves substantially more than Aaron Rodgers an off-season later. The problem is Wilson has some leverage that could potentially lead to resetting the market. You would hope other franchises out there wouldn’t fall for it either, but Dan Schneider is always out there to arbitrarily reset markets out of turn because of his hard-on for big-name players. They need a quarterback, and Wilson is as big a name as is in existence.
While I’m sure players tend to root for better deals for each other, I’d argue that turning the NFL Player’s Union into an oligarchy where much of the limited resources are taken up by a super-elite minority of players is bad for everyone. 99.9% of NFL players don’t sniff a second contract, let alone a market-setting one. If you raised the minimum salary (better for more union members) you’d have less money to shell out toward record-setting deals, and vice-versa.
Major League Baseball is currently in a more exaggerated version of this dilemma. Players are getting a quarter- to a half billion dollars guaranteed over 10-13 years, and yet the upper middle class to middle class of players can’t get work.
That’s bad for the labor force as a whole, in my opinion.
Yes sir! Let’s go!
Control the cost if you can. Smart move.
Just a thought out of the blue. What if Doug Baldwin, after his surgeries and rehabilitation, goes to training camp and has enough problems that he decides to retire? We all would hate to see that, but it could be a possibility. The difference between Baldwin’s cap hit and even a 1-st round replacement WR should still amount to 6-8 million. That would seem to help at least with dollars and cap space in getting RW extended. The front office has historically been pretty mum on health issues, maybe they know a lot more than we do right now about ADB’s odds and his future.
We have about $95M in cap space next year. If we signed Bobby @ $15, Frank at $20, Reed at $15 and RW @$35 that shrinks to ~$10 really quickly.
On the bright side, the cap should go up. We’ll have 11 draft picks, which will be cheap contracts. Kam ($12M) should come off the books and possibly Doug ($11M) as well. Dickson would be another $3.4M in savings if we let him go.
So, even if we sign all of our guys to top contracts, we’d still have about $35M in cap space (prior to draft picks).
I’m not optimistic that Doug plays next year and it’s probably 60/40 for this year. We should have room for what they want to do regardless.
Deal will be made. I predict a reasonable contract of 30-35/yr. Considering the alternative, a very reasonable deal. Then Clark, wags get deals next. Reed they will wait and see if he repeats. Then they’ll work on him next yr or franchise tag. Seahawks will want this re deal done as much as Wilson wants it. I just cant see wilson enjoying the constant trade/contract talk thru the media. I can see him saying make me highest QB right now. It’s a nice feather in the cap. So 34/yr. Done. Budget set. Hawks can now let dominos fall with rest. Plan for qb of future when the draft stock is better or a guy falls.
I wish it was that simple
The major sticking point with all modern NFL contracts ….. guaranteed money.
Wilson might be looking for 3 years, 100M guaranteed.
Why 3 years… he gets one more bite at the FA apple…
and the PCJS contracts would all run out the same year.
I wonder if either side would want to do 6 years $200 million. Make him the first ever $200 million man. That would be an APY at $33.3 just under Rodgers, just like last time. Maybe make $120 million guaranteed which would be what he would get from three franchise tags. I doubt Wilson would want to do it because he would want another fat contract around age 34 but just a thought.
I would be absolutely fine with 100M 3 years 100% gtd
Russ was healthy most of his career, always started, he won’t get cut anywhere near in the future, and this could lower his CAP hit.
If it’s 120M with 75M GTD vs 100M fully GTD I’d choose the second.
Jim Nagy with a great point and some insight per usual.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1113248305180549120
He’s also been extolling the value of HS testing numbers… https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1113262259684429825?s=21
Let’s just trade Russell now and draft Jake Browning in the 6th round to be the next Tom Brady.
/sarcasm… I think 😉
That being said, I do hear Jake Browning is having a good pre-draft process, improving his arm strength and showing at the combine he was slightly athletic.
He was so meh at Washington, but I could see him getting a chance as a camp arm and then slowly working up the ranks to being a starter, if he decides to actually spend any time in the weight room.
Uhh, this is a QB that at times Washington would run the ball almost an entire game to win. Browning will never ever be anything other than a bad backup.
I think Caleb Wilson should be considered a sleeper as a late round tight end.
He’s 6-4 and weighs 240 pounds, ran a 4.56 40, which is good for a big tight end.
The main knock on him is that he’s not a good blocker and has a weak lower body. However, he had 965 yards this year and 490 yards last year.
@seamode
https://imgur.com/a/xgLg4CD
Thank you! Wow, that draft guide is really nice looking.
So I wasn’t totally crazy for liking Ya-Sin’s profile as much or more than Byron Murphy’s…? I guess they are really two totally different profiles though.
Ya Sin’s short area agility numbers are not good, and that could be a red flag that means he couldn’t play effectively in the slot, which is where I wanted him.
But he has 32″ arms and 77 3/8″ wingspan, whereas Murphy’s lack of length scares me a bit even for the slot at only 30 1/8″ arm and 71 3/8″ wingspan. That’s tiny.
https://twitter.com/mattyfbrown/status/1113225025279152129?s=19
I read this like Omenihu numbers are great by sportsinfo, right?
And he has one of the worst pass rush productivity grade by PFF.
Strange.
I don’t feel it’s that complex. Wilson won’t sign a 30m APY deal. Seahawks don’t want to give him 40m APY. He deserves to be the highest paid (for a short time). 35m APY wouldn’t cripple the org and should make Russ happy. It can’t be a 5-6 years deal because of CBA coming up, it should be a 3-4 years deal. Russ would like 100% GTD, team wants lower GTD (50-55-60). Both should compromise and set it to 75-80%. I feel like this is a lot of dancing/making chess moves but at the end this will be the contract.
So give the man this contract. If he declines trade him before the draft for at least 2 first round and 2 second round, or tank this year and trade him after the draft for something like 3 first and 2 second round picks
It most probably is more complex.
Other than that I am 100% with your reasoning. Let’s hope there will be clarity in two weeks time.
Yeah, I mean in theory, I think this shouldn’t be. But it’s more complex because they make it more complex. Russ doesn’t want to settle for less than he’s worth and the max amount the Hawks would pay. And Hawks doesn’t want to feel robbed. And the agents are always greedy aholes, so even if Russ would be OK with like 35m 4 years 100m gtd, the agent will push for 38m or more and fully GTD. And yeah, there are more nuances, like how the contract is structured, signing bonus, etc. But if both parties would just go there to make a deal and not making the most profit from it….a mutual benefit win-win deal, it shouldn’t be that hard
Cousins deal is fully guaranteed, probably a safe bet Wilson is pushing for that, and > Rogers
GerryG you are probably onto something. Russ will demand the richest contract in NFL history, fully guaranteed.
Hey does anyone know what happened to Seahawks.net?
Rob, this April 15 artificial deadline – how much of this is about Wilson, versus his agent? Is it possible that the agent is trying to get a deal done by April 15 – with the ability to then do a splashy press release touting how Wilson will be the highest-paid player in the game – in order to drive more draftee interest his way ahead of the draft? Or do you think that has nothing to do with it, and it’s really the agent and Wilson on the same page, trying to extract max value out of the team? Or perhaps if a deal does get done, that’s just a little ancillary benefit.
I simply believe it’s Wilson and his camp wanting talks to begin now and not on the teams schedule. Nothing more or less than that.
Just the latest move to try and gain the upper hand and push things along.
And at the end of the day, it’s all going to come down to how much both parties are willing to compromise.
I have thought a lot about this subject too. Russ’ agent is a well known baseball guy but is Russ his only football client? Is he trying to make a point to any other football player about making them the most money? Seems like he wants to be the new Drew Rosenhaus. I doubt Russ is an unwilling participant in it all but some of these little games seems a little weird for his image. I feel like that could really be the part that does it in the end. Camp comes, his public and team image starts to get distorted, he agrees to a deal.
Perhaps a LG?
Dillard will play left tackle
Any scouts from the AAF there?
Nate Orchard is still in the league? Liked him quite a bit when he came out.
Here’s another tidbit:
Seahawks still digging around in FA for cheap pass rush help:
https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/04/03/seahawks-visit-with-a-pair-of-free-agent-pass-rushers/
Sorry if someone already posted these. Seahawks hosting CBs Jamar Taylor and Davon House for visits as well.
Bargain bin sorting. Upshaw is mildly interesting, former 2nd rounder.
Hawks sign Cassius Marsh again to a 1 year deal. Likely a guy who’s gonna compete in camp for a spot with whomever we draft.
If anything I’d say this increases the likelihood he’s comfortable playing on the tag. I think Rob hit the nail on the head when he started talking about the optics of imposed deadlines a few weeks ago.
Mark Rodgers and Russell’s camp realized they’d be granting Seattle some PR leverage if they allowed the Seahawks to dally all offseason only to set their own deadline prior to training camp (when the onus would be on Russell to accept a fair offer or face scrutiny).
This way they shift the conversation to, “We wanted to get a deal done and they messed around too much. Now in order to properly focus on this season for the fans we need to suspend talks until next year.”
I think what Rob said weeks ago still applies — unless the Seahawks offer stupid money, Russell will be content to play on the franchise tag and start the clock ticking toward an eventual mega, mega deal. This deadline only shifts the narrative of blame away from Wilson’s camp and onto the Seahawks (once again, as with the leaked Shefter report from a month or so ago).
You can see they’ve been building up to this:
First they leaked to Schefter that the Seahawks haven’t begun negotiations with Russell yet (clutch your pearls!). So that gets framed in a weird way from the beginning.
Then they leaked the NYG rumor.
Then Russell goes on Fallon to bashfully talk about becoming the highest paid player.
Then all the sudden there’s a deadline imposed in TWO WEEKS when they haven’t even begun talks yet…
They set this up beautifully, because without the Schefter report nobody would see Russell’s deadline as reasonable, but since the narrative is that he’s been unfairly ignored, now all the sudden his deadline will be well-received by the national media and fan base.
Well-played, if not dastardly…
Was busy for a couple days and am trying to get the tracker back up to date. Help me out if you see anyone missing:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J3d023YdKp9MFv7OQTy0YTssJ65qLd_aB0UJFGVHxPY/edit?usp=sharing
May have left out 1 or 2 on this page:
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/3/27/18282625/2019-nfl-draft-prospects-visits-workouts-seattle-seahawks-parris-campbell-darnell-savage
Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reports that the Seahawks are bringing Taylor Mays in for a workout. He’s 31 and he hasn’t played in the NFL since 2015. For those who may have forgotten, he played Safety for PC at USC and PC said, in 2008, that he was the “biggest, fastest guy” he’d ever seen at his position. He’s 6′ 3″ and 230#.
IMHO. it’s unlikely that he will be signed, but it just shows how wide PC/JS have spread their net, hoping to snag an overlooked player.
I’m going to try to present a coherent argument for why Russell Wilson should not be paid the greatest QB salary ever, and whether he should even be retained.
For ages now I’ve been hearing that the Seahawks are the greatest running team in the league. That their game is built around running the ball and throwing deep passes. And indeed they have tried to maintain a 50-50 balance of running and passing. Even when their running game was non=existent they still ran 50% of the time.
Now when you think back to the most successful years of Wilson as QB, what has changed since then. Well Marshawn Lynch is gone. That’s a big factor, though Carson is filling his shoes.
The other thing is that the Seahawks no longer run the QB option, they have chosen to keep Wilson in the pocket. Excluding scrambles. Back in the day Wilson was accounting for half the running yards, even with Lynch around.
It is for that reason, that if the Seahawks want to maximize the running offense they should draft a running QB. Someone like Jalen Hurts. These running QBs will probably not be at a premium, so that is a side benefit.
Now I get it that we all want the QB with the accurate arm. But if your not going to use him, and your not going to pay for premium receivers, then why pay for an established QB?
Did you know that among active QBs Russ is #1 in Yards/Pass Att. and #2 in Adj. Yards/Pass Attempt? All time for those stats he’s #5 and #2. His career completion % is 64.2%, #7 among active QBs and #12 all time. His career passer rating is 100.3, 2nd best all time and actively.
Going deeper, 6.0% of Russ’s passes have gone for a TD in his career, which is 10th best all time and 2nd best actively. Only 1.9% of his passes thrown have been interceptions, 3rd best actively and 4th best all time. Did you know he also has the 19th most rushing yards of all time, even including running backs?
It’s disingenuous to say we don’t use Russell Wilson – we do use him, and when we do it turns out he’s one of the most efficient QBs in the history of the NFL. We have maximized our rushing offense, unless you forgot we were 2nd in rushing attempts last season and 5th in Yards/Carry.
That rushing stat is insanely wrong. Russ has 3,651 career rushing yards. That puts him at #243 all time… still good, but a far cry from #19.
His yards per attempt is #1 among active, but it’s also a mere 0.2 yards more than Jaemis Winston and Matt Schaub.
How about yds/completion (#88 all-time)? How about yds/game (#19 among active & #28 last year)?
I’m not trying to argue that Russ isn’t efficient, or even a great QB. You can cherry pick stats to suit your narrative though.
Last year Russ threw it 427 times, which was the lowest in the league for QB’s who started 16 games. He was incredibly efficient with a 35/7 TD:INT ratio. That has value for certain and I highly doubt many QB’s could produce more with such little opportunity.
We don’t ask him to throw it 600+ times per year like Big Ben, Luck, Ryan, Rogers. So in that sense I see where AH is basing that argument. The year that RW set a career high is attempts is the year we missed the playoffs, so arguing for us to use him more doesn’t exactly make for a strong argument though.
Disagree. QBs who can throw a beautiful deep ball do not grow on trees. Replace Wilson with a running QB who is not accurate, and how many guys will be stacked in the box against him? Eight? Nine? We don’t need to necessarily have a high usage rate on a QB to make keeping him worthwhile. The threat of the deep ball is enough.
I don’t want to allocate $40M per year, but I am hopeful we could get him for $35M and I would be ok with that. Look at how many teams look lost out there without a real answer at QB.
Both Kearse and Baldwin were initially free agents, right? And we paid up to get Harvin and I don’t think anyone would argue we got an awesome return on investment there. We have been successful in the past without premium receivers.
I’m not arguing for a QB who isn’t accurate. I’m just saying that as long as the Seahawks are going to emphasize the run, they had their most success when Wilson had plays to run the ball. Wilson simply isn’t a threat to run the ball anymore. By design he is expected to stay in the pocket. Sure there is the broken plays and the occasional rollout and dive into the end zone. But mostly they expect him to stay in the pocket.
The rushing numbers by year for Wilson:
2012 489 yards
2013 539
2014 849
2015 553
2016 259
2017 586
2018 376
Wilson still has a good average of 5.6 yards per carry.
I do have to retract that he was making half the team running yardage, Marshawn Lynch was rushing between 1200 and 1600 yard per year between 2011 and 2014.
Running QBs can also be accurate throwers. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Perhaps a more clear argument is that I see changes to the type of plays the Seahawks will run. During the superbowl heyday there was a large threat from Wilson running the ball. He is now expected to stay in the pocket, unless the play breaks down. Without him being a running threat, the other team can tee off on the pass rush. It simply changes the way defenses play the Seahawks, and not to the Seahawks benefit.
Arizona and LA load the box with five pass rushers. They are willing to take some damage from Carson. But they are not going to give Wilson the time to throw a long pass. It’s not his fault. It is the game plan.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/03/russell-wilson-wont-hold-out-or-skip-voluntary-workouts/
Mike Florio: Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Wilson will be present on April 15 and every day for every workout, meeting, and practice.
So why the deadline? Wilson, per the source, simply wants to prepare for the season with zero distractions. The deadline was provided to the team in late January, we’re told, and Wilson has given the team a full and fair effort to finalize a contract that would extend his stay beyond the conclusion of the 2019 season.
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Guess won’t hold out.
Rapoport says if Wilson doesn’t get a new deal by April 15 then negotiations “are essentially over” until, well, sort of unclear, but until at least end of 2019 season. And then, lots of potential outcomes. https://t.co/FG8mHenfj8
A look at Iowa slot WR Nick Easley
https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1113272328820015105
Both Wisconsin guards are excellent run-blockers, maybe we can get one early-mid day 3 with some trade-downs and acquiring a few more picks.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-ranking-the-top-five-interior-offensive-linemen-in-the-2019-nfl-draft-by-run-blocking-grade
I think we met with the Utah St. RB Thompson; Hall of Pitt and Ozigbo of Nebraska are Seahawk-sized, and all 3 were in the top 5 of 2018 RBs in yards after contact avg.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-ranking-the-top-five-draft-eligible-running-backs-in-yards-after-contact-per-attempt
“ESPN’s Brady Henderson reported on Thursday that the Seahawks have signed Cassius Marsh to a one-year contract. Last season, Marsh appeared in all 16 games, starting three of them, and he had a career-high 5.5 sacks, 38 tackles, and 14 QB hits. He shined in a primetime game against the Oakland Raiders, sacking Derek Carr 2.5 times.
This is cheap pass-rushing depth (for the time being) and someone who knows the Seahawks’ defensive system. In case you’re wondering, because he was released by the 49ers, Marsh doesn’t count against Seattle’s comp pick total.”
https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/4/4/18295640/report-seahawks-bring-back-cassius-marsh-one-year-deal-nfl-news