Check out this weeks podcast where we reflect on the Super Bowl and look at prospects in the upcoming draft class that compare to members of the Broncos’ Championship winning team.
Tomorrow I’ll be publishing a new mock draft. Today I wanted to do a status check on where the Seahawks might be as we edge closer to the combine.
What do they do in free agency?
So far they haven’t re-signed any of their free agents. That’s not a surprise. Teams at this time of year are generally formulating a plan for the market and looking at possible additions elsewhere.
Davis Hsu estimates the Seahawks will have about $18m to spend on their seven free agents expecting to earn +$2m per year (Kearse, Irvin, Okung, Sweezy, Lane, Mebane, Rubin). It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect any major new signings. Pete Carroll has stated he’d like to keep as many of the existing roster as possible.
Who is the priority?
I still think it might be Jeremy Lane. The Seahawks learnt a valuable lesson with the Cary Williams disaster. They’re unlikely to add outside players at cornerback any time soon.
Losing Lane would put a lot of pressure on the younger players to step up (and for Tharold Simon to stay healthy). Question marks in the secondary significantly impacted the defense early in 2015 and they could do without such problems in 2015.
Brandon Mebane and Athyba Rubin anchored Seattle’s D-line at a high level and the team would probably rather add a pass-rusher (or two) to the group instead of chasing replacements.
If they do go into the market, what can they do?
Cincinnati’s Wallace Gilberry might be one to keep an eye on. He earned $2.1m in 2015 and while he’s in the twilight years of his career (he’s 31) he’d provide some interior pass rush. He had seven sacks for the Chiefs in 2010 and 14 sacks for the Bengals between 2012 and 2013. The production dipped recently (three sacks in the last two seasons) but he’d be a cost-effective option. They’ve used free agency to add defensive linemen in the past.
Olivier Vernon has been a dynamic rusher in Miami but what kind of contract can he get on the open market? Jabaal Sheard’s cap hit in 2015 after signing with the Patriots was just $4m. Can the Seahawks tempt Vernon (25.5 sacks in the last three years) to sign a one or two year prove-it deal? He’s only 25.
Phil Loadholt is expected to be a cap casualty in Minnesota and wouldn’t cost the Seahawks any compensatory picks as a consequence. He’s played for Darrell Bevell before. He has the massive size and run-blocking skills the Seahawks like at right tackle or left guard. His injury history could play into Seattle’s hands in terms of market value.
Do we have any idea yet what positions they’ll consider at #26
The signs point to Russell Okung moving on and that would create a hole that needs filling on the O-line. Either way — they have to improve the interior and might consider doing so at #26. Tackle, guard or center could be in play.
The Seahawks haven’t played the percentages before by looking at perceived positional value to solve multiple needs. They generally go BPA at a position of importance and attack that need. They seem unlikely to say, “well we could go defensive tackle at #26 because the options on the O-line are better down the line”. If the guy they really like is an offensive linemen they will probably go for it. Pete Carroll admitted their top priority was to provide a consistently performing O-line for 2016.
There is a chance, however, that they will find someone they really like on defense too. Looking at previous drafts it would need to be someone with unique athletic traits. This is the list of defensive talent they’ve taken in the first two rounds so far: Earl Thomas, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark. Notice a trend?
If they go defense early it’s safe to expect a dynamic athlete who tests well across the board at the combine. That hasn’t always been the case when they’ve drafted early for the offensive line (Okung, Carpenter, Moffitt, Britt). It’s something to consider when the combine begins later this month.
Seattle wants to be the bully again so there’s likely to be an emphasis on toughness. It’s hard to look beyond an addition in the trenches at #26 — either on the O-line or D-line/pass rusher.
Who might they consider?
On the offensive line Shon Coleman is a punishing, edgy tackle with ideal size and grit. He could play left or right tackle or move inside to guard. He’d be an ideal pick to fill not only a need but also provide some toughness up front.
Assuming Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker are both off the board, Cody Whitehair and Nick Martin are center prospects who would solidify the interior, provide leadership and physicality while removing any question marks over a vital position for the next few years. Daniel Jeremiah today touted Alabama’s Ryan Kelly as a possible first rounder and I’ll be watching more of his tape tonight.
Defensively it’s safe to expect Sheldon Rankins to be long gone after his masterclass at the Senior Bowl (ditto Noah Spence). There’s some uncertainty about other perceived ‘top’ players though. How much will Robert Nkemdiche’s character concerns impact his stock? And would the Seahawks go anywhere near him if he falls? Is A’Shawn Robinson all bark and no bite? He has a tremendous athletic profile and should excel at the combine. Yet on tape he’s passive, gets blocked too easily, doesn’t have enough splash plays and seems to go through the motions.
Both Nkemdiche and Robinson have the type of athleticism that would interest the Seahawks. But do they have the necessary edge and competitive desire?
A case in point. Here’s running back Alex Collins blocking A’Shawn Robinson — a 312lbs defensive lineman:
Ok to be fair.. Here's Collins finding work. Giving it to A'Shawn.. pic.twitter.com/iRmn88TJUe
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) February 9, 2016
Vernon Butler and Andrew Billings provide unique movement skills for their size, a ton of strength and plenty of upside. They’re also better suited to the one technique/nose tackle role in Seattle. That isn’t a position the Seahawks rely on for a pass rush (who does?) and the big issue in 2015 was losing the production provided by Clinton McDonald (2013) and Jordan Hill (2014). The base defense needs to be disciplined and gap control is vital (something Billings struggled with in college). It’s hard to imagine the Seahawks placing a first round emphasis on a one technique — even if Mebane departs.
It’ll be interesting to see if Kyler Fackrell (a possible edge rusher) can test anything like Clay Matthews (a former #26 overall pick). It’s not ridiculous to consider. Is the #26 pick too early to consider former 5-star recruit Chris Jones? Probably. He has the athleticism and upside they love but he’s an underachiever (something they’ve avoided). Jonathan Bullard is an overachiever but is he special enough as an athlete to go in round one? Austin Johnson is incredibly active, hustles to the ball and has plus athleticism for his size. Is he a problem-solver for the pass rush though at 323lbs? And is #26 too early?
What about later in the draft?
There are some nice options on the O-line that are likely to be available in rounds 2-4. Joe Dahl excelled at the Senior Bowl while La’Raven Clark’s hopeless technique is matched by stunning physical potential. Graham Glasgow could be a punishing guard or center and Fahn Cooper impressed at tackle for Ole Miss.
If they’re looking for an interior pass rusher (or two) to work into the rotation — they might be able to wait on Adolphus Washington and/or Jihad Ward. Ronald Blair III is another player to keep an eye on. I watched one game of Indiana’s Darius Latham today (a former four-star recruit) and he could be a mid or late round option too.
There could be a sweet spot in round three for running backs (Alex Collins, Paul Perkins, Jordan Howard and Devontae Booker might be available), LSU’s Deion Jones fits their profile at linebacker (speed, speed and more speed) and there’s a handful of long cornerbacks likely to be available on day three.
With Lynch done, that $18 million available will go up to over $24 million. It’d be a coup if we could sign Vernon to a short term prove it type contract like we did with Bennett and Avril. That would mean we could simply take BPA OL at #26.
It’ll be very interesting to see if Fackrell tests anything like Clay.
The $18m estimate included Lynch’s money. It had already accounted for the likelihood of him leaving.
Going into the combine, Clay Matthews was listed at 6’3″ and 240. Fackrell goes in at 6’5″ and anywhere from 245-255 pounds. Matthews ran a 4.67 and it’s estimated that Fackrell will run a 4.75, although he has been timed at 4.64. Will be interesting to see.
At the USC pro-day Matthews ran a 4.59 with a 1.49 (!!!) ten-yard split.
Thanks.
Anyone watched tape on Kyle Friend? This dude will tear up the combine. Center for Temple.
I wanna see what S. Utah’s James Cowser does. He might be more Clay Matthews than Fackrell.
I am surprised Crowser does not get more love. He is undersized but appears to be a great athlete with an incredible motor. Everytime I see him I am impressed.
Hope Frackell shines at the combine but I just don’t see the Clay Matthews comparisons.
Rob with all the talk about Frackell as an elite speed pass rush prospect do you think he has the hip flexibility and bend off the edge to become a true edge rusher in NFL.
The 10 yd split, explosion #s like vertical and broad, as well as how they can bend off the edge seem like much better indicators of ability to rush off the edge. For me the 40 time means little in that regard.
This where guys like Matthews are unique. It is what makes Von Miller a generational talent. He combines the explosion and speed with incredible balance and bend. he is this generations version on Lawernce Taylor and they come around once a decade or so.
I don’t know to be honest, we’ll find out at the combine. On tape he’s constantly around the ball. A true impact player. We’ll have to see how he tests.
I think Von Miller reminded some teams that elite pass rush is hard to find. This probably will help Fackrell rise on the draft day, as much as, he does at the combine or on tape.
Von Miller’s talent was obvious, and that is why he was drafted #2. I believe there are competitors around the league. The Miller envy is partially justified, partially overblown.
Don’t forget the most vital indicator: Are they a junk yard dog? Speed and ability doesn’t mean jack if they aren’t willing to scrap and fight and get their face rubbed into the turf ten times and still keep coming after the QB at full speed. When they feel pain do they play harder? Will they go through any amount of pain and effort to get to the QB and football?
Those questions are just as important as speed.
Dude, he might be more Clay Matthews than Clay Matthews!!
Did you check out that hair?
Really like Darius Latham myself. Reminds me of Tony McDaniel a little bit.
Michigan’s Willie Henry is another good looking day 3 guy that could provide some of what Clint McDonald did.
I know your high on ND’s Nick Martin, and rightfully so, but ‘Bama’s Ryan Kelly is better IMO. And I still like Glasgow and his interior versatility.
Either Martin or Kelly would be the perfect 2nd Rd pick IMO.
Really like Glasgow. Love his attitude. Does he have the size to play LG for the Hawks? Seems more like a C/ RG with regards to the size they look for.
I think he could play all 3 positions.
LG wouldn’t be outta the question, if they wanted to go that route. He could easily add another 5 pounds or so with his frame.
He is a guy I hope we target just for his attitude and nastiness.
Adding him and Coleman to the line would replace any nasty lost with Sweezy and then some.
Speaking of attitude and nasty, Michigan St’s OL Jack Conklin is someone I suspect Seattle and TC will be pretty high on.
Wll he be available though?
Sweezy’s skill set won’t be easy to replace, he’s a top 3 pulling lineman in the NFL, that’s why I’ve tolerated his pass blocking a bit, but without much improvement in that regard I hope we don’t overpay and move on if necessary. Which is what I expect to happen. Anyone know if/how Glowinski performed at the Combine?
Pretty damn good. Had a great SPARQ score.
His tape also showed a guy that was tough, nasty, great at pulling, getting to the 2nd level, squaring up his targets and playing through the whistle.
Hell yeah! I haven’t gotten into his stuff too much, but if he shows that every day then I think it’s safe to say they’re comfortable moving on. Thanks for the info
I like what I see in Latham. One of the many projected around rd. 3-4.
Rob, I’m with you that signing Lane is at the top of the list. SB49 and the first half of this season showed us what can happen without depth at CB. ($6m apy)
Next comes Rubin for me. ($3.5m apy)
Then maybe Kearse (at max. $3m hit for 2016), unless we are really sure that Kasen or Kevin Smith is ready to step into that role. Although it’s true, as many say, that his targets will go down once Graham is back, it is also true that Graham might not even be back for the first half of the season. If Baldwin or Lockett were to go down, we would really be left high and dry. I know he is not the greatest, but he has been reliable and has the chemistry with Wilson. I’m just not sure it’s worth the risk to cut him right now, unless of course they plan to draft a WR in the higher rounds, but in general we seem to have drifted away from that idea.
Irvin, Sweezy, and Okung can walk and get us some nice comp. picks.
Seattle’s future contract signings, inactive list, PS, and IR looks like a draft class man.
Brandon Cottom is our next FB/H-back, WR DeShon Foxx, CB SJB, CB Tye Smith, CB Mo Seisay, CB Tharold Simon, CB George Farmer, WR Kasen Williams, WR Tyler Slavin, WR Antwan Goodley, DB Trovon Reec, DT Justin Hamilton, OL Terry Poole, WR Paul Richadson. And I know I’m forgetting a few others.
Not expecting a handful of those guys to step up, contribute, and make the team would be foolish.
I really like that group. I think Simon, SJB, Seisay and Ty Smith will be a great battle for one of the CB spots. If Simon is healthy he could surprise this year as could SJB IMO. I really like our CB depth. Curious how Farmer has taken to CB because he is long and a great athlete.
Yes keep an eye on Farmer.
Yes, we will need 1-3 of these guys to take a big leap and play a lot next year
Interesting tweet from PFF today:
Highest passer rating targeting a single WR:
D. Baldwin 142.8
Tyler Lockett 130.4
S. Watkins 128.8
J. Kearse 126.1
Rishard Matthews 125.1
3 of the top 5 are Seahawks, and one of them is Kearse. That’s a tough role for either KWilliams or KSmith to step into. SEA will keep him if they can.
I don’t want to downplay Kearse too much, he can do some great things and good things, but I think Kearse (unlike Doug and Tyler) was made better by Russell being so insanely hot in the 2H of the season (when he had pass pro).
What do I mean? Sometimes QB’s are so good that they are what makes their receivers great. Their receiver can go to a diff team with a lesser QB and even with a similar amount of targets not look as good as he did with Rodgers/Manning/Brady, etc.
I think Doug and Tyler are legit, with any QB they’d look fantastic. But Kearse? He had a really good year (his best) and it was great seeing him catch the ball so well, but I don’t think your conclusion based off that tweet is accurate.
To me he could very well be replaced if not upgraded, potentially by Kevin Smith or Kasen Williams if one or both are ready. ~600 yards and ~4 TD’s isn’t some huge “Omg how are we going to replace that production” situation.
Remember a lot of what Jermaine started to be used for (especially in the 2H) was the Jimmy Graham role. With Jimmy (hopefully back) along with other receivers potentially making an impact (P-Rich hopefully back, Kasen and/or Kevin stepping up) even if Kearse stayed his role might shrink compared to what is was in ’15.
Great point Nathan
Really looking forward to one of our other DAWGS stepping up, maybe both! I know I’m showing my homer game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQywtCvkzvU
Kevin Smith never did that and nobody on this roster not counting Russell, and that’s a MAYBE, have come through in the clutch like Jermaine. He’s just a phenomenal, big-time playmaker. How many NFL receptions do Kevin and Kasen have between them? They haven’t brought it in the regular season yet, not even once. Jermaine has done it in the playoffs, with the game and the season on the brink, multiple times. We wouldn’t be the same clutch team we are if he wasn’t here imo. But it’s a bit of a “chicken-or-the-egg”.
We get clutch play from Kearse in the playoffs…great. Is that worth the multiple games with 0 targets a season? With the average performances in most of his regular season games? With 600 yards and 5 TD’s? Is that worth 3-3.5mil a year for 3 years when that could cost us someone like Mebane or Lane? I’d rather have a bunch of other FA’s we could possibly lose than re-signing Kearse.
If PRich gets hurt again, and the WR we draft is having a typical (slow) rookie year and Kevin and Kasen turn out to be sub-par then yes I will miss Kearse. Especially if Jimmy can’t play the first 8 games or more. We will be hurting at WR.
But if PRich can stay healthy, if Jimmy can come back and play well, if the draft pick can make at least some impact (at least more than Norwood), if Kevin or Kasen (or hopefully both) can make some impact… I don’t think we are dying for Kearse.
I don’t talk about Kevin and Kasen just because we have them, I do have expectations but when I make assumptions about them I mean if Pete and the coaching staff really like what they see from them. Pete and the coaches see them daily in practice and have tons of tape of them in camp and the preseason. Kevin Smith is called “one a day” because he scores a TD everyday in practice. No guarantees that transfers over to the real field but if Pete is pumped for Kevin & Kasen then so am I. And if they let Kearse walk and go with Kevin & Kasen then obviously they have confidence in them being productive.
(Not that they can’t be wrong, see the Nowak experiment)
The playoffs are IMPORTANT man! Nothing is more important than winning those games. Go ahead TD against the niners in NFCCG, tore it up against the Broncos in SB which didn’t matter, game winning TD against Packers in the following NFCCG followed by the bobbling, shoulda-been SB-winning cath on the sideline, all of this happeed long before the “2H” of last season. How can anyone question those catches?
Is it worth it? EVERY M———— PENNY.
Not to mention the incredible he had against the Panthers the week before the Niners game, just an incredible playoff performance that week one of the best of his career, which is only 3 seasons long and look at all he’s done.
I’ll take consistency from a WR over him, I’ll take better regular season play from a WR over him, i’ll take being able to re-sign Lane or Mebane over him, I’ll bet on Tyler, Doug, Jimmy and Rawls all being able to dominate in the playoffs and us win with those guys (and potentially others like PRich, Luke, etc).
Give Russ pass pro and Rawls behind him all season and we win in the regular season and post season. We won’t need hail mary shots to Kearse to save our butts. Good pass pro and really good run blocking with Rawls, Russ, Tyler, Doug, Jimmy, PRich…that is the recipe to success I like. All we need is for Kevin or Kasen or a PSquad WR or a drafted WR to come in and put up 500 yards and ~4 TD’s in the reg season to basically match Kearse’s normal production.
Then in the playoffs I will bet on Russ + pass pro winning every day of the week, no matter his receivers. Let alone when he’s potentially got Doug, Tyler, Paul, Luke, Jimmy, etc.
Okay. He had that catch against the Packers. Do you not remember the four targets to him in the first half? All of Wilson’s four interceptions were intended for Kearse, with a few of those INTs coming after they hit Kearse in the hands. If anything, Kearse was a main reason he needed to make that catch in overtime.
Good point but as i remember it the entire team played like shit the first half so i don’t know how fair it is to single him out. But perhaps he dropped those because there wasnt enough on the line.
Against extremely tight playoff type coverage. Kearse 685 yards makes him the second most reception yardage on the team. Seahawks have traditionally spread the ball around. This is the first year (of Carroll’s regime) that they even had a receiver break a 1,000 yards. Usually the leading receiver has 800 yards or so.
I am willing to pay the man to stay.
I’ll add that other than being Huskies, Smith and Williams are in the same position on this roster that NOrwood was a year ago.
Nathan buddy you are overlooking the most important thingJermaine does. It isn’t his regular season yardage.
But if a good record in the regular season is more important than advancing to the SB, which Jermain has single handedly done twice, and we’re so damn good that we don’t need someone to do that for us, then i guess you’re right we should let him walk.
But there hasn Been a season since Pete came here that we’ve been that good.
I like Kearse too, but “single handedly” brought them to two Super Bowls? C’mon! Like Beast Mode said, “it’s a team sport.”
great great play no doubt put him on the seahawk map for life.
On Kearse:
Seattle going forward needs to do everything possible to make Wilson comfortable. Whether that’s protection or maintaining a great defense. His unique quality is his mental toughness and his absolutely incredible decision making.
Kearse as a receiver is merely adequate. He has some gifts, but he’s just not a guy who is by himself explosive.
To me, I could care less.
The bottom line — and I think this is a point that any Kearse detractor would concede to, is that Wilson absolutely trusts Kearse without a second thought. And that in and of itself is paramount to the primary need of this offense. Making Wilson comfortable.
Wilson plays better with Kearse. Kearse plays better with Wilson. I don’t want any other #3 or #4 kind of WR in this league for this offense.
If that means paying Kearse in the neighborhood of 3m a year, I think that’s a relative pittance. Kearse fits this offense and this quarterback perfectly. And I think we’re courting disaster if we mess with that.
Exactly, Attyla. I would much rather see a more talented and consistent receiver replace Kearse, but I do not see the bond between RW and Kearse ever being broken. I wish the team had the cap room to keep him as luxury depth, not as a #2. That really was what he was in 2013, when they had Sid-Golden-Baldwin providing the main consistent attack. That is his ideal role.
Would you rather that Wilson continues to trust Kearse and continue this level of play or establish similar trust with Lockett and potentially take it to the next level?
If they have money to spend on WR group, they should look to extend Baldwin.
I agree with your assessment of Kearse’s play, but if Wilson can develop that rapport with a second tier physical talent, shouldn’t he also be capable of developing it with a first tier guy? I’d like think that if (if) Richardson is health that having him in instead of Kearse would be more taxing on opposing secondaries. So (just my opinion) I’d rather see Lockett and Richardson outside and Baldwin in the slot long before I’d like to see a WR drafted in the first 4 rounds.
Kearse finished in the top-5 in the entire NFL for receiver efficiency and is a solid run blocker; the two characteristics that Seattle values most in receivers.
It is not complete analysis to simply look at his totals and say, “we can easily get 600 yards and 4 TDs from someone else.”
Can we get those numbers from someone else with as few targets as we got them from Kearse? Can someone else run block like Kearse?
Seattle had the best offense in team history last year. Coach Carroll said he wants to keep the group together. We can probably keep Kearse as a WR 3 by offering him a WR 3 contract with modest guarantees so we can cut him if someone proves they are better.
If the Seahawks kept Kearse, Okung and Sweezy and found a replacement for Britt at LG in the draft, that would put them in position to improve on last year. Rob makes a persuasive case for adding a center. You could probably add 2 starters on the offensive line without jeopardizing continuity and risking the 2016 season.
This isn’t fantasy football or Madden where you completely turn over your roster from one year to the next and still compete for a championship. The Seahawks need incremental improvement (particularly at interior pass blocking on the O-line and interior pass rush on the D-line) and they are set to compete for another championship in 2016.
Agreed.
Just to mention:
The Seahawks record holder for TD catches in the playoffs is not Baldwin or Largent. It’s Kearse.
That got to count for something too.
Love Kearse, he went to highschool 10 minutes from me and has played against my old school, I didn’t see it but still pretty cool! He’s clutch but not consistent. I see it as if he leaves and we replace him, we get better on first and second down but aren’t as good on 3rd down (maybe not with jimmy). Don’t see him as a must-sign but would definetely love to have him back for years
Kearse is also a good special teams player. We need wrs that can contribute as a gunner, blocker, or returner too. If we don’t keep kearse, then either smith and Williams need to get way better on special teams and make clutch plays, or we will have to find someone (draft or fa) that can do that.
Agree with everything.
Overall we want to get better and more bullying on the lines (O & D). Draft picks for those positions will make me happy. Upgrade at least LG and I will be pretty happy. Add an impactful D-line pass rusher and I’ll be happy. Add a RB who can be our 3rd down back (with upside) and I’ll be happy.
That is about all this draft has to do to make me happy. We are talking about minimum level happiness by the way, they could do more and make me very happy.
Besides all that…it comes down to who they re-sign and who they let go. I have actually swapped from wanting Okung to walk to thinking maybe due to his injury (& other factors) we can re-sign him within our budget, locking down both OT positions long term. From there we can let Sweez walk, sign a vet LG (Boone? What about Jahri Evans?) and draft a Center (Glasgow?) and Dahl (RG competition for Glow).
Re-signing Lane would be big, but if we can’t at least re-signing Shead would make me feel good. I feel like he is solid. Sherm-Simon-Shead isn’t too shabby and if Simon got hurt then you’d hope Tye Smith or SJB is ready to play.
I hope Lane bets on himself and signs with us for a year, plays great, stays healthy, puts great play on film, then in 2017 he can sign a 3-5 year deal somewhere similar to Maxwell and get PAID. By then for us SJB, Simon or Smith should be ready to lock down that CB2 job long term.
Jahri Evans signing in Seattle makes me think of Mike Wahle signing in Seattle to be honest. Just think he’s not the same player these days.
I’m also pretty doubtful they’ll be able to afford Boone even if he’d be a nice pickup.
Thanks for the info. Overall no matter how we do it, I feel like we HAVE to upgrade from Britt. Interior O-line is just a must for Russ and having such liability in both Guard spots and just solid performances at Center from Lewis (not physically dominant or bullying) leads to some ugly blocking.
Interior protection has to be a priority along with tackle & pass rush.
One of the strengths of this draft is OL – I think we should’ve able to address interior OL with rookie contracts….I just want to hit on our picks with proven, big school production (ie Martin, Glasgow,etc). Protect Russell NOW; I don’t want to let a project player play through growing pains (ie Nowak)
If they go for a bigger name FA, there are guys I’d rather see them pursue instead of Evans. Too old, and injured.
Even though we have had better offensive lines in the past, I don’t ever remember us being bullies. Even though we had good rushing numbers it still felt like we had a hard time with short yardage downs and really punishing teams. It was more like beast mode punishing defenders as the game wore on. I even felt like unger was more of a technician than a bully out there.
Two words: Breno Giacomini.
Carp had the size and strength too. Loved seeing him against Justin Smith.
While this would be ideal, the problem may be that Lane has put enough on tape to find a healthy market in this CB-hungry league. I am guessing his floor is 4-5m but his market could easily go above 6m.
The question is, are the Seahawks prepared to give Lane the long term contract he wants? I think they should do it. For all the hype about the cornerback-factory in Seattle, the reality is that production of reliable (healthy, skilled) CBs has not always met team needs, and dipping into free agency obviously did not go so well.
Shead is alright but let’s be serious, he does not look like CB2 starter material, to me at least. You have to turn your head in coverage at least periodically to meet that standard. He is an amazing backup and all-around swing player in the secondary however.
Lane and Simon are the rookies that showed definite promise at CB2. But Simon also showed some definite lapses too (mental, performance), in addition to having persistent health problems. Lane is versatile and looks much more promising today than Cary Williams did a year ago: why not offer him a Williams-level contract? I think one lesson from the ups and downs of this year is that CB2 is vital and can not be filled by a JAG without a serious dropoff in the secondary as a whole.
As for 2017, I’m not certain but I think by then the Seahawks will have lost most all of the recent slate of CBs: Seisay, Simon, Shead, Burley will all be gone unless signed to a new contract. Smith will be under contract, and maybe Jean-Baptiste and/or Farmer, if promoted to the roster, but they are complete unknowns at this point.
Projecting forward a couple years then, it would seem signing Lane or maybe Simon makes complete sense, unless the hawks bet on hitting the jackpot with a quickly developing prospect out of this year’s draft (or current practice squad players).
I would urge everyone to see the edit I’ve just made to this post. It’s a video of Alex Collins blocking A’Shawn Robinson. And it’s the perfect illustration of why Robinson might be one of the most disappointing players to watch on tape in this class.
and props to Collins if he can block like that he will stat as a rookie.
Collins’ blocking is hit and miss. Which is why it’s even more striking to see him basically do everything but give A’Shawn Robinson a wedgie.
Yeah that’s pretty ugly isn’t it.
Ouch.
Robinson is a true definition of boom or bust.
I have to think that when Pete said he wanted to get tougher and improve the pass rush and protection — Robinson is not a guy who satisfies either.
*scratches him off the big board*
Anyone have an idea of what kind of deal we can expect for Phil Loadholt if he signs with Seattle? I’m warming up to the idea of sliding Gilliam to the left, Loadholt on the right, and then going guard or center with our first pick.
Here’s where I’d be wary of that.
1. Gilliam is a project still. I would not want to rely on him being a LT going into TC. If he falters, which is entirely possible — what’s your plan B? If you’re thinking Bailey then you may as well assume Wilson goes down with a season ending injury.
2. This division is tough on the ends. Loadholt would struggle in the divisional matchups. That’s where we lost this division. Going 3-3 is not going to win your division. It’s too good.
Question for all, what is it about shaq lawson that keeps him out of the first? I usually weary of college line men when everyone is a stud next to them but lawson looks like a stud. Not saying he should are pick but I thinks he’s underrated at this point.
I see him projected all the time in the 20-40 overall range.
He should be one of those guys in the mix. But he’s mostly projected to be a DE which makes it hard to justify adding him when he’d be the same kind of player as Bennett and Clark. You’d have to bench one of them to put Lawson on the field.
Agreed, I don’t see seattle drafting him for that exact reason too
Lawson is more of a power rusher who displays great effort. It’s hard to project those guys to the next level. When he’s playing against superior blockers will he have the same success?
I can see that, his effort is the biggest reason I like him.
Rob and readers, who would you prefer, Denver Kirkland or LeRaven Clark in the 3rd round to play LG?
Neither
Kirkland by a landslide, wouldn’t draft clark before round 6
I’d add, that if we’re talking R6 or beyond. I’m ok with that.
These guys are just horribly flawed. Both are not even likely to be in the mix for real playing time by opening day 2017.
Given that — I trust we’ll develop some SPARQ gods in that timeframe.
I know that they are awful, but if SEA goes with OT or C at round 1/2 they have to get a LG and the 3rd round would be a nice spot, but i dont see anyone good available there. (Maybe Dahl, buy he is not a LG…)
But*
-You guys think Dahl could play LG?
-I can see a scenario where SEA picks Rankins (1st), Martin (2nd), Dahl and Brothers (3rd) and a CB (4th). Te line would look like Okung-Dahl-Martin-Glow-Gilliam with Britt as the swing guy.
Dahl doesn’t have the kind of size they’ve tried to utilise at LG. He looks like more of a RG in Seattle.
Dahl
McGovern
Westerman
Garnett
Drango
Haeg
Young
Hawkins
There are a whole lot of guys good available there.
At OC:
Allen
Kelly
McGovern
Glasgow
There are a lot of different flavor of player available in that 75-125 range. It’s a real sweet spot.
It really looks a lot like last year’s draft. Just a lot of quality at the tail end of R3 really through the middle of R5 is likely. If Seattle were to go interior OL with both R3 picks, I’d consider them very strong contenders for starting jobs.
I think the ‘grade against the roster’ scores for those guys will be very favorable for us picking them up.
Kirkland.
I’m not crazy about either but Clark has the bigger upside.
Kirkland. Not even close, imo.
This is way off the radar, but how about a late round flyer on a guy like OLB IAN SEAU out of Nevada as a situation pass rusher in the 6th or 7th. (and yes he is related to THAT SEAU of Chargers fame.)
I’m in favor of this. I watched their bowl game this year and he was a handful. Great motor, great effort on his part.
I am for getting as many guys in who can pin their ears back and flat out speed pass rush. You can never have too few of them.
At 6-2 255 or so, Seau is a bit undersized, but like his uncle, he is quick and has a crazy motor. Has some moves. He gets ridden out of plays too much, so he’d have to get stronger. Bottom rounds or FA.
I am looking at guys like Ngakoue, Jordan Jenkins, Dadi Nicholas and Fackrell in the mid rounds.
I think Vernon is going to get paid and end up costing too much for us, but maybe that’s just me. William Hayes from the Rams is one guy I’m getting more interested in. He’s older, so he might be looking to cash in and end up costing too much. But he’s a solid player and absolutely killed us this year in our second game against the Rams.
William Hayes is tremendous. Is he even available? Put him with the Hawks, and it’s lights out for all opposing offenses.
Well, he is now an UFA but I’m not sure how available he will be. After looking at the Rams cap scenario I could see them cutting Chris Long and being able to offer Hayes more money than us. His age might keep his price down, though, and he would be a great depth addition. Hayes, Bennett, Avril, Clark, Hill… That would not only be a tremendous line (with Rubin or Mebane as well) but it would give us more flexibility on draft day. Letting the big money spend itself out on the first few days of free agency and getting a deal on a guy like Hayes would be perfect.
A dream scenario, but I cannot see the Rams letting Hayes go. Chris Long is the guy for them to cut.
Right now pre combine, I think there are three distinct positions that Seattle is targetting:
– Offensive Tackle
– DT (pass rush)
– Interior OL
I’d have to think that we’re looking at adding two Interior guys.
Rob mentioned this earlier in this forum thread:
“Interior protection has to be a priority along with tackle & pass rush.”
I’d have to agree. And given that — looking at where the value and talent is likely to be I’d think that our draft is setting up pretty much as follows:
R1: OT
R2: DT
R3: Interior
R4: Interior
The way the draft looks like it may shake out, there should be significant value and help at all three position at those particular areas of the draft.
If I look at the OT class, I don’t see a Jake Fisher kind of prospect falling to R2. I think if you want an OT that will be competitive on day one, you’re going to have to take one in R1.
DT is a deep class. There is a handful of guys that kind of all blend together in the 40-70 overall range. It’s a sweet spot of sorts for this need.
The interior OL class is similarly very very deep. And if we see CB/DT/OT realize the runs on talent that we’d expect — there are likely going to be several players at the tail end of R3 that should be good players.
The way the needs all shake out — they really do kind of neatly align with where we’re picking.
I would be all for that!
Given al the discussion here, OT is probably not a too valuable position to pick in this draft. The only guy that is an exception is Shon Coleman, who could end up as an upgrade at both tackle spots and LG. Interior linemen are more valuable for a QB like Wilson and cheaper to keep in the long run. At this point, I think I agree with the notion that LB/CB/WR are just as valuable for the Seahawks as an OT,
I think we should adress interior OL as early as 2nd round (maximum) and DT as early as 4th minimun. Seahawks have 5 picks within the first two rounds, and PCJS should at least take 1-2 interior OL and 1DT, which leaves the Seahawks with 2-3 picks to be used for OLB, CB and/or WR/3rd down back.
Well at 26, you are looking at the following possible candidates (not all will be there but some assuredly will)
1. Coleman
2. Ifedi
3. Decker
4. Conklin
5. Hawkins
6. Spriggs
It’s doubtful that any of these guys will be on the board by the end of R2. If a run develops on DL or CB, then all of these guys might be available at 26.
Bronson Kaufusi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lhTZTIhZwk
First thing you will see is that he is a tall rangy dude. Good for batting down passes. Is high effort but slow and not sudden. Not sure if he would be a fit for the Hawks.
Be great @ blkg TE! He can snag the rock as well. 3 TE set of Willson, Graham, and Kaufusi with Graham motioning out wide, then leak Kaufusi up the seam in back of the end zone snagging a pass 10ft high for a TD.
It would be interesting to see his vertical. I think he can go both ways.
He seems severely lacking in quick twitch. What do you do with a tall, strong lumbering dude? Try to make him an interior guy?
If he drops to early 6th Rd, he would be great pick for both sides. With his tenacity, he would be a great blkg TE. Better so than D-Line @ DE/DT. His length & lack of quickness will hinder his chances as an edge bender. With more time to develop in the weight room he could create some interior push in a pinch as reserve on passing dns.
It’s started.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000634650/article/debate-which-draft-prospect-most-reminds-you-of-von-miller?campaign=fb-nf-sf20604805-sf20604805
And the correct answer is that there are no (known) Von Millers in this draft.
Rob, what do you think of USC Center Max Tuerk in the later rounds? Last year, before his knee injury, he was All Pac-12. He also has experience playing all positions on the line and he might not need as much coaching up in a pro-style, zone blocking scheme at USC. Also Pete will also have more scouting and health info on him because of the USC connection.
He’s pretty tall and lean for center. I’m not sure what his best position is.
Probably LT, with more work in the weight room.
I’ve done about 50 of these on my Note, but this one seems to stick. Can’t figure out if I’m too biased late, but I’ll let you guys decide
We trade out of the 1st, and gain a 5th.
2nd: La’Raven Clark OT, Size/Length/Strength, we lose Okung to keep Lane, and after Clark if an OT IS a priority, we’re looking at alot larger gambles.
2nd: Chris Jones Miss St. DT, The Ideal replacement for Tony McD at 6’6″ 310, He’s consistently the 1st of the line Offense and Defense. Splashy and Stout.
3rd: Jordan Howard Indiana RB, 6’1 225. BRUISER, Decisive, looks for contact, seemingly will Always pick up the necessary yards. PassPro Plus, and CAN catch. Will be a nice 3rd down compliment to Rawls.
3rd: Jack Allen Michigan St. C, Ideal 6’2″ for Russ, Wrestling background which could appeal to Cable, Gritty Strength with Great hand combat. Technically sound player for not reaching.
4th: Victor Ochi, Stoney Brook DE Senior Bowl STUD. Well Below our “Standard Leo/WILL” size at 6’1″ 240, but for a team that praises relentless effort and competition. Ochi would be a Coach Favorite. Besides his speed into the backfield, he’s adept enough to hold his edge and work down the LOS to contribute vs the run.
5th: Deon Bush Miami FS, Exactly what we need, since Shead may be focusing his offseason training more towards playing CB. Fast enough w/ the vision to play FS, while showing the ability to to play in the box and make the hits. Familiarity with Michael Barrow & Brennan Carroll coaching at Miami.
5th: KeiVarae Russe Notre Dame CB, has decent size/length, drops due to broken tibia. But prior to injury he had good technique and ballskills, and he isn’t afraid of coming up in run support.
6th: Vernon Adams Oregon QB, Relatable game play between him and Russ, shows Touch, Zip, and Decisiveness.
7th: Chris Brown Notre Dame WR, Possible Kearse replacement at 6’2″ 190. Route Runner with decent speed… and Route Runner, a nice quality to get from a 7th rounder.
7th: Dan Vitale Northwestern FB, “Superback”
I get where you are coming from. I actually like the CB/FS Bush in the 5th as well. He should have very good speed and has experience in the return game. I like the idea of taking some of the workload off Lockett, so he can be more focused on WR his second year.
As for OL, I want 2 or 3 guys who are more polished in this draft. I understand why people love Clark. Size, strength etc, but he is a major project and that would be a huge risk in the second round. I mean, if he was in round #4, ok, take a swing at him as a project. I would be much more comfortable if they took Martin early in the second, I can see the fit and need lining up beautifully.
I keep thinking Vernon Adams will be a 7th rounder. Not sure why. He has RWs size, but is about 20-30 lbs lighter coming into the draft. That has to scare teams to death drafting him. I agree, he has many of the traits you are looking for, but I wouldn’t take him any higher than LATE 6th round.
Thought I’d join in on the fanspeak.com fun. Used the fanspeak board:
1- OT- Decker
2- DT- Butler
3- LG- Garnett
3- OLB- Jones
4- WR- Carroo
5- CB- Bradberry
6- RB – Drake
7- OT- Cooper
I don’t think Ochi is below LEO size at all.
Josh Shirley is the same size or a little bit smaller, but he’s listed as a DE on Seattle’s roster.
It’s about length, explosion outta your stance, athleticism, and elite 10 yard splits.
Your gonna hear the term ‘analytics’ a lot this year, if you haven’t already. And analytics say, your much more likel to be an effective/good pass rusher at the next level if you run a sub 1.70 10 yard split. Seattle figured this out years ago. It’s crazy how ahead of the curve they truly are.
We need to look for the guys who run a split in the 1.5’s. Avril ran a 1.50 and Bruce a 1.55
Absolutely.
I should have clarified. I was generalizing.
Most teams will settle for less than the Al Davis like speed obsession PC/JS have.
They will not be hard to spot as those guys are very few and far between at that size. Ochi did look quick off the snap though.
Victor Ochi’s pass rush in the Shrine Game was impressive. Explosive. I’d love to see him with the Hawks.
This is a wild speculator, but if we gave up our first rounder for a 2017 first rounder, would we have anywhere the draft capital to go up and get myles garrett next year?
Consider that we will be able to trade comps next year.
Considering that he’ll be a top 3 pick, if not the no 1 overall pick, I’d say no.
“This is a wild speculator, but if we gave up our first rounder for a 2017 first rounder, would we have anywhere the draft capital to go up and get myles garrett next year?”
Only if two first rounders can get you the #1 or #2 overall pick.
Sure it can work!!!
You just need to trade you 2016 pick with the worst team in football during the 2016 season and you get Garrett plus our first round pick next year.
Easy then…
Surely we can talk the browns into it.
I keep hearing “ideal” OL for specific spots on the OL for Seattle.
Does anyone know why Seattle prefers a certain size or length at LG or RG or C?
Is this something that happened prior to Money Lynch, or did they build the OL around what he specifically did well, rush to the left and cutback against the grain to the right? I’m just curious.
Would this possibly change with Rawls, CMike or another RB in the fold ?
Goes back to Alex Gibbs. The godfather of the ZBS.
Having said that, every guy or team has their own variations of the ZBS.
Seattle likes what they like. For some that’s unaceptable or doesn’t make sense.
I think Cable has talked about it in the past. They like a big mauler at LG with great size and length. They like quicker, scrappy RG’s. It’s more to do with their run scheme than the player running the ball.
Tyrone Holmes DE- FCS Defensive Player of the Year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIv1Di9S1gc
A low round/FA sleeper.
He’s a good one.
Had a great week of practice at the Shrine Game.
Rob, you checked out Auburn RB Peyton Barber?
This guy is incredibly ‘Seahawky.’
I haven’t V12.
I was starting to get pretty concerned about the offseason situation, with several key free agents and ostensibly a mere ~18m in cap space. I for one was really hoping the Seahawks could retain, at minimum, Okung (best of a bad situation for now), Lane, Mebane and Rubin. Even more would be bonus, but these four players are the most difficult players to replace with comparable quality (especially Okung and Lane). In particular I think Lane’s significance to the team and abilities are highly underrated and his market is typically underpriced by analysts out there. I agree with Rob’s assessment above on Lane. We all know that OL and CB2 weaknesses were the most conspicuous and costly problems this year.
Recently I started looking a little more closely at the 2017 situation and I now wonder if my concern is justified. I also wonder if the notion of an 18m budget to meet this year’s needs is potentially misleading, even more so than in any other year. To what extent should Schneider ‘responsibly’ be budgeting all these needs and corresponding big salaries (with high to average first year cap hits) within a hard budget of 18m? When we do a costs/budget analysis of 2016 and 2017, it seems the biggest needs are presenting themselves now but the greatest budget room is coming in 2017.
If we use Overthecap’s projected 51 player salary for 2017, and we factor in the salary cap growth projections of approximately 10m per year, then the Seahawks may have as much as ~60-65m in cap room in 2017 before budgeting for practice squad, etc. Obviously this 2017 cap space goes down when players are signed in 2016 to multi year contracts, but either way, the cap room is going to expand generously in 2017.
While 2016 needs seem to greatly exceed the 18m cap space technically available, the cap space added in 2017 far exceeds the new positional deficits created in 2017, which are not that bad on paper: WR1 (Baldwin is obviously going to get an extension); OC if no long term solution this year; SCB maybe, but Smith will be under contract; TE2 with Wilson becoming UFA. Some of these are already roster holes but at least this year there are cheap, credible options for center and nickel coner back.
This is all to say — stating the obvious really — that a two year costs/budget horizon AT LEAST is necessary when projecting moves this offseason. The most expensive needs over the next two+ years are going to be met this year, but the budget for those needs expands greatly in 2017. Unless I am missing something, Schneder in no way needs to confine his shopping list this year to player salaries that (in APY terms) fit into a budget of 18m. He would be more than justified in back loading some contracts or at least doing some with minimal first year cap hits.
This is very true. I remember they asked JS in an interview whether he looks ahead when making roster decisions (pretty dumb question if you ask me, but he was courteous about it). He replied concretely that they look ahead 3 years when planning the roster. (it was a while back but if I can find the link I will post it)
That number seemed like an interesting point to me, because it might show a certain philosophy he follows about looking far enough ahead without looking too far and jeopardizing the now. Win forever, yes, but forever starts with next season.
If anyone has even a rough 3-year outlook (cap projection, contract situations, general positional strengths of upcoming drafts) this really could, as Poweroflogic says, help us project a bit more accurately this off-season’s decisions.
Well, with Lynch off the books 2017 does have 60M cap space but….
the 2017 cap has only 22 players on it. If you plan to back load 18M you are talking about 25M+ cap for those 4 guys next year. 27 more players at NFL min are 14M, extra for 2 rookie classes, IR reserve, PS etc. should be close to 8M extra. Suddenly 60M has become 13M. Add the Baldwin extension (5-6M), a few extra mils for Bennett and some ERFAs, RFAs, and you are left with almost nothing.
Still, I agree that we could afford to get a little creative with backload and signing bonuses and reach 24-25M average yearly income for our FAs.
“the 2017 cap has only 22 players on it”
Agreed but one huge feather in their cap is they are key players not just warm bodies under contract. All of those guys can & should be solid+ contributors in 2017 (Lynch is retired but I’m not sure 2017 cap ramifications – I think he should just come right off so 21 players). Should be noted that Chancellor may be an issue and Richardson’s injury history makes him a question mark to contribute in 2017.
If all goes as planned, Clark, Lockett, Rawls are bringing starter+ contributions to the team in 2017 for entry level salary. Others like Glowinski, Tye Smith, and Sokoli would hopefully be at least contributing something by that point.
Add in the 2016 draft class and a 2017 class that should feature a couple extra comp picks again, and they should have a good return of low-cost talent on the roster.
Long winded way of saying I think the Hawks are in good shape.
Thank you! That goes much further and is very helpful. I only wonder why you budgeted for 2 rookie classes if the 2016 cap room estimate of 18m already budgets for 1 rookie class?
Either way, if this general exercise is more or less valid, then your number of 25m for major new contracts in 2017 (new and ongoing from this offseason) might be the upper limit.
Does that mean that the 2 year horizon for new biggish salaries is 18m max cap this year + 25m max cap next year = 43m to max cap budget for 2 years’ worth of major salaries not currently on the books?
If so, then my own wish list, for example, is very doable with 2 year worst-case scenario cap hits of say 17m Okung, 11m Lane, 7.5m Rubin, 6.5m Mebane. This leaves a million in change and those 2 year cap estimates really are probably worst case.
You can play with different external or internal free agent possibilities, but either way the picture looks rosier for this year’s offseason possibilities.
Continuing with the financially viable two-year scenarios above, if you sign Okung, Lane, Mebane and Rubin for at least the next two years, it would seem the Seahawks would be left with the following long term needs to be addressed with draft picks, depth players or bargain basement veteran signings:
– LOLB, LG, TE2, maybe SCB if Smith does not work out, and OC (assuming an OL commitment only to Okung, Glowinski, Gilliam). That is a challenge but certainly one the Seahawks can be meet in 1-2 draft classes.
If you value Willson enough to retain, you might have to sacrifice one of big four I listed. If you value Irvin more than Lane then you could sign the former leaving a bigger (and I think more daunting) gap at cornerback. Without Okung you could keep e.g. Irvin + Kearse. Or you might keep Kearse instead of one of the DTs, although who knows how high his market could go. And so on…
I really want NKemdiche at 26. We see how important pressuring the QB is in today’s game and its just hard to find a guy where Seattle picks who can give you that, they tend to go much earlier. If his character concerns cause him to drop to 26 I think Seattle jumps at it. Avril, Clark, Bennett with him would be promising. Then attack OLine with 2 of your next 3 picks
1. Nkemdiche
2. Martin
3. OL
3. Perkins
Etc.
IMO very little chance Nick Martin makes it to #56. A sure-fire top-50 (maybe top-40) pick.
I think it’s possible Martin, Kelly and Whitehair are all gone by 56.
Very likely IMO — especially if Kelly is as good as some think (I’m studying him more today).
Will Nkemdiche drop all the way into the Seahawks’ range, even if character issues lose him some spots? Landing him would be a coup. He is the closest thing in this draft to N. Suh.
Small problem: Nkemdiche can’t play football
Mathis will probably be available, also. Wouldn’t mind us signing him like we should have signed him last year.
Maybe — but he was spelled a fair bit in Denver and has he still got that fire after getting a Super Bowl ring? Question to ask there. He’s also 35 this year. He might retire.
Guys, what do you all think about getting Ryan Kelly RD1 and Chris Jones RD2?
Everything I’ve read about MIA and Olivier Vernon suggest they’re going to resign him. The cap casualty off the Dolphins defense will likely be Cameron Wake. He spent half of 2015 injured, and MIA can save $8.25M against the cap by releasing him.
Any interest in SEA signing him to a Dwight Freeney-like 1 year deal?
Definitely. Although I think he’d be costly.
Best thing to happen to Vernon was the deal Philly gave Vinny Curry.
I read Vernon was 2nd in the League with 30 QB hurries in 2015. He’s got a good argument to paid like Curry. It’s possible he gets the franchise tag if they can’t work it out.
I wonder what Wake’s value will be.
Mike Garafolo @MikeGarafolo
Giants will be releasing LT Will Beatty today, sources say. They’re also cutting G Geoff Schwartz, as @DanGrazianoESPN reported.
Beatty was due 6.65$ mil. Found him listed at 6’6″ 320 lbs.
Health is a big key here. He didn’t play in 2015 and he’s 30.
Not overly excited by any of the players releases so far.
Brandon Shell out of USC. Four year starter at tackle in the SEC. Monster size. NFL bloodlines. Regularly shut down Jadaevon Clowney in practice. Kiper said could work his way into the second with a good combine but most have him as a day three guy. A lot to like.
Big fan of Shell. He’s very solid and experienced. Not sure how athletic he is, but the guy knows how to play the game, has nice length/size to stick at RT. Looked really good in the Shrine game.
For sure top 20:
(13)
Bosa
Tunsil
Ramsey
Buckner
Alexander
Smith
Lee
Apple
Spence
Conklin
Decker
Jack
Rankins
Remaining:
(12)
Lynch
Treadwell
Elliot
Billings
Wentz
Stanley
Robinson
Coleman
Ragland
Hargreaves
Coleman
Whitehair
Leaves some good options:
Fuller/Miller/Kelly/Martin/Nkemdiche
One thing I’m wondering if the Seahawks will consider going after a FA running back. There are quite a few available (Miller, Forte, Martin, Morris, Ivory) including a few that I think would fit nicely in Seattles schemes (Morris and Ivory). These are good veteran RB options that take the pressure off the Seahawks to draft a RB relatively high (top 3 rounds). They could, alternatively, draft another RB late or sign an UDFA to compete with Michael. What do you guys think? What kind of Contract do you think Morris and/or Ivory will get?
Here’s the problem with this plan though:
Matt Jones, drafted in the third round by Washington last year, had a cap hit of $584,853 in 2015. The highest cap hit he produces in his entire rookie contract comes in 2018 and it’s $878,854.
Chris Ivory’s cap hit with the Jets last year was $2.75m. He’s likely to command a higher salary on the open market.
Considering it’s a pretty good draft at RB in that third/fourth round range, the cost saving you can make going down the draft route instead of signing a veteran is substantial. And you get that player on a cheap deal for four years too.
I like Jonathan Williams for that role. Pushes Michael to third string and fighting for a roster spot.
Point taken, that’s why I was curious about what those guys might get in FA. I still think, even considering the cost difference between a rookie and veteran, it’s cheap insurance against a Rawls injury. I guess I just don’t like the idea of being pigeon-holed to take a RB with a mid-round to high pick b/c our backup is Christine Michael (a guy that was traded and cut from multiple teams last year). Drafting a RB is no guarantee and unless JS/PC are really enthusiastic about somebody I would rather see a late pick or UDFA to compete with Christine Michael. There you open the higher picks to OL/DL/LB/CB and still potentially get your cheap RB option on a long-term deal. Just my 2 cents and preferred approach.
As always, thanks for the analysis and blogging.
If edge pass rusher/Irvin replacement is a priority, this does not look like a good draft to address it. There are decent ones, but don’t see any standouts, even at the top of the board. Dodd/Lawson/Fackrell/Jenkins/Ngakoue/Nicholas, sleepers in the low rounds, Victor Ochi and Tyrone Holmes. Promising maybe, but they are more Obum Gwacham than Von Miller.
There are a few free agents, but the good ones will be super inflated. Irvin is going to be coveted at at least $9M. O. Vernon is going to get a huge offer. Tamba Hali, but he has a knee injury, and the Chiefs may still want him. Nick Perry, Jason Jones might be serviceable. Are they improvements over Irvin? I love the idea of William Hayes, but why would the Rams let him go? Aldon Smith would be interesting. Jason Pierre-Paul has one functional hand, and the Giants have him on the bubble (they were interested in Von Miller prior to the SB). Greg Hardy was a total failure in Dallas, on and off field, and should be avoided. Fossils like Dwight Freeney? Why bother.
Not just an Irvin replacement but an upgrade would be the ideal scenario. Impossible?
I haven’t seen a Bruce Irvin in this class so far. Let’s not forget, Bruce had 22.5 sacks in two years at WVU and then lit up the combine.
We know what the priority is — a consistent O-line. Carroll spelled it out. With the extra of finding another pass rusher.
DT Akiem Hicks (Patriots) is in play. Had a great season, but reported to be looking for something in the $3.5M- $4M range. Pats will try to keep him, but they have depth and could afford to let him go. If he gets a bigger deal, Pats would get a compensatory pick in 2017. Hicks has huge potential, and I think he is worth the $.