The Seahawks are set to pick once in each round and according to OverTheCap.com they can expect four compensatory picks (one in the fourth round, two in the fifth round, one in the sixth round).
On top of this, I have the Seahawks trading out of the first round to acquire an extra fourth rounder. They subsequently use that pick to trade back into the third round.
Confused? You will be.
Free agency obviously plays a big part. I have the Seahawks signing one of Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron plus an experienced defensive lineman at a modest price (either a one-year deal for a proven veteran or a prove-it style contract). That leaves the following key needs: Cornerback, Receiver, Guard.
I firmly believe Thomas will be a priority target to provide a much needed second level mismatch.
Keep an eye on the Raiders, Jaguars and even the Seahawks as Julius Thomas suitors, @RapSheet said on NFL Total Access.
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) March 5, 2015
The Seahawks could cut some of their veteran players (eg Tony McDaniel) for extra cap relief. I’ve taken that into account too. I’m also using ESPN’s Scouts Inc to note where prospects are being projected in each round. I chose them because they’re one of the few outlets grading every prospect in the draft. They updated those grades this week.
Pick #31 — trade down
The Seahawks move back into the early second round
It’ll be harder this year without a Teddy Bridgewater sitting on the board, plus the value in rounds 2-4 is much greater than the late first. However, the 5th year contract option will remain attractive. Here are some recent examples of late first round trades:
— In 2014 Minnesota traded a fourth round pick to Seattle to move from #40 to #32 for Teddy Bridgewater
— In 2013 Minnesota traded third, fourth and seventh round picks to New England to move from #52 to #30 for Cordarelle Patterson
— In 2012 Tampa Bay traded into the 31st spot to take Doug Martin by swapping fourth round picks with Denver.
— In 2011 New Orleans traded a future first rounder and the #56 pick to New England to draft Mark Ingram at #29
— In 2010 Detroit swapped fourth rounders with Minnesota and gave away a 7th rounder to move from #34 to #30 for Jahvid Best
— In 2008 the Jets traded a fourth rounder to jump from #36 to #30 with Green Bay to select Dustin Keller
In the last seven drafts, only 2009’s edition hasn’t seen a trade involving the last four picks in the first round (#29-32). If you want to move out of the first, there’s usually a team willing to work out a deal. Here’s the interesting bit — 50% of the trades above involved moving up for a running back. Doug Martin, Mark Ingram and Jahvid Best aren’t exactly glowing references for a similar deal this year but it is a strong class of running backs.
What if Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley are still on the board at #31? What if they’re both gone and the #3 running back is generating a lot of interest in the early second round? New Orleans pick twelfth in the second round and are likely to lose Mark Ingram in free agency. Would they be willing to move into the late first for the sake of a fourth rounder? What about San Diego (16th pick in round two) or Atlanta (10th pick in round two)? The Vikings have traded back into the first round in the last two drafts. Could they make it a hat-trick to replace Adrian Peterson?
In this projection the Seahawks do find a trade partner to move down 8-10 spots and acquire an extra fourth rounder (a similar deal to last year, where they moved down eight spots for a fourth).
Second round pick (having traded down from #31)
Marcus Peters (CB, Washington)
It’s hard to judge Peters’ stock. If we see a rush on cornerbacks in the first round he could be swallowed up. We might see two spells where the CB’s go — one each in the first two days of the draft. After that? Not much else. It’s a mediocre class overall. Peters lost some momentum with his combine performance (which wasn’t bad, but wasn’t as good as some of the other big names) but gained some momentum with a humble and honest press conference. He’s fronting up and taking responsibility for what happened at Washington. If he’s taking the same stance in team meetings it’ll ease some of the character concerns. But I suspect some GM’s/HC’s will remain wary of his ability to accept coaching and therefore he could be available in the first half of round two. Why does he fit for Seattle? His wingspan will make up for sub-32 inch arms (31.5 inches) but everything else about his game screams Seahawks. We previously mocked him at #31 for that reason. He plays with a swagger, he’s a press-man corner with a nose for the ball. He can start quickly. And the Seahawks have enough leaders in the secondary to feel confident he’ll know his place.
Second round pick (original selection, #63)
Henry Anderson (DT, Stanford)
Originally projected in the third or fourth round range, Anderson has real momentum after a superb Senior Bowl and a productive combine. He was pretty much unblockable in Mobile and really stood out in the drills. In Indianapolis he was one of the big winners — running a 5.03 with a 1.63 split and excelling in the three-cone and short shuttle. He’s long (6-6, 33.5 inch arms) and big (294lbs). He could be a cheaper alternative to Tony McDaniel, working the three-technique inside. One other thing working in his favor? He’s an excellent run defender. On tape he just doesn’t allow running backs any yards after contact. We know the Seahawks are willing to go a round early if necessary. Scouts Inc projects him at #83 overall, so he could be there in the late second. He probably won’t be there in the third.
Third round pick (SEA trades back into R3)
Tre McBride (WR, Williams & Mary)
I’m a big fan of McBride’s. He’s an alpha male on the field (an underrated aspect for a receiver) but appears mature and humble off it. He competes for the ball in the air with terrific technique and control. Has the short-area burst to win in zone but also enough size to deal with press. He has some kick-return ability and could have an immediate impact there. Excelled at the combine with a 4.41 at 6-0 and 210lbs. His 1.51 ten yard split is elite. Jumped a 38-inch vertical and a 10’2″ broad. He’s an explosive receiver who impressed against the big schools he faced. So will he last into the late third round? I don’t know. I could put him in round two I like him that much. But we also thought Martavis Bryant would go really early after his combine, likewise Donte Moncrief. They both lasted. And McBride is a small school prospect. The Seahawks might have to manipulate this one. This is the pick they acquired after moving down from #31. The Seahawks give up a sixth rounder (acquired in the Percy Harvin trade) to move from the early fourth round back into the third to make sure they get McBride. In the 2014 draft Jacksonville made a similar move to draft Brandon Linder.
Third round pick (original selection, #95)
Ty Sambrailo (G, Colorado State)
I’m not a fan of Sambrailo at tackle. He just doesn’t seem like a natural fit — his footwork is too busy, he doesn’t do a good enough job getting his hands on the edge rusher. When a D-end beats him off the snap he’s pretty much out of it, there’s no counter or recovery (something Jake Fisher is great at by the way). If you move him inside his lack of arm length (33 inches) is less of a problem, his active feet will be better working to the second level or pulling and he can play square without needing to kick-slide and position against the arc. It seems like an ideal fit. Will he last until the late third? Scouts Inc has him graded at #90 overall. I could actually see them drafting him in the late second because he’s that much of a fit. He has the mobility to work in the ZBS, he’s also a good size replacement for James Carpenter.
Fourth round pick (original selection)
Alex Carter (CB, Stanford)
He’s getting pumped up after a superb combine, but for me he’s a classic early day three cornerback. The tape is hit and miss. You watch one game and he’s tight in coverage, does a good job re-routing receivers and has the size to compete with physical wide outs. Yet he didn’t force turnovers at Stanford and had trouble playing the ball, his recovery speed is suspect and he’s more of a project in need technical refinement. Like Richard Sherman, he had trouble at times working against the double-move. He has the size (6-0, 196lbs) and length (32 1/8 inch arms) to live in Seattle’s secondary. He had an excellent 40 inch vertical at the combine. The tools are there. He just needs help. A team like Atlanta or Jacksonville might take him pretty early to try and mimic the Seahawks — but Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley are fully aware Seattle didn’t reach on guys like this. If he’s still there in the fourth he’d be a nice depth pick at corner. Scouts Inc has him as the #117 overall project — essentially the mid-to-late fourth round.
Fourth round pick (compensatory selection)
Darren Waller (WR, Georgia Tech)
He’s a Vincent Jackson clone when you look at his size, length, speed and hand size. Right across the board he’s almost identical to V-Jax. He’s one of two players who didn’t drop a single catchable pass in 2014. Not many 6-6, 238lbs receivers can run a 4.46, jump 37 inches vertically and manage a 10’5″ broad jump. He has a fantastic catching radius with 33 1/4 inch arms. He is a project though. He didn’t run many refined routes at Georgia Tech in the triple option — he was usually used as a decoy or deep route specialist. He’d find little holes in a defense cheating up against the run. He wasn’t asked to do a lot of conventional receiver work. He’s very polite and softly spoken — can he play with an edge? He needs time, but it took Vincent Jackson four years to have a major impact in the league. Waller might never live up to his physical numbers, but you bring him in and see if there’s something to work with and develop. If he works out, you’re getting the kind of big target Seattle has lacked in the Pete Carroll era. They’ve taken receivers in this range before trying to find the bigger guy. Scouts Inc has Waller at #192 — so this could be a ‘take him a round earlier’ type situation.
Fifth round pick (original selection)
Zach Hodges (DE, Harvard)
What a back story. He’s overcome so much to get not only to Harvard, but now the brink of the NFL. He lost his mother in high school, his father as a toddler and his grandfather (father figure) as a teenager. This is a guy you can root for — and therefore the type of guy Seattle loves to take a chance on. He was explosive at the level of college football he played at. He had a 1.61 ten yard split at the combine which is intriguing. He’s 250lbs and 6-2 1/2. He’s not the tallest but he’s long with incredible 34 1/4 inch arms. You know he’s going to give it his best shot. If he fails it won’t be for the lack of trying. He has a good spin move and he’s shown he can loop inside to attack the middle. He will need to improve his hand placement at the next level. There’s no real evidence he can translate speed-to-power well enough to have an immediate impact. The first year could be a tough one — but what do you expect from a late fifth rounder? He’s #179 on Scouts Inc’s list — so basically the kind of range Seattle picks in the fifth.
Fifth round pick (compensatory selection)
Kurtis Drummond (S, Michigan State)
He’s not the fastest (4.65) but he was the leader of the MSU secondary and is extremely mature and passionate about the game. He’s a field general. There’s nothing particularly flashy about his game but he’ll get out there and do a job. The Seahawks need reliable depth in the secondary and that’s what Drummond provides. He did manage a superb 39.5 inch vertical. He’s 6-0 and 208lbs. Just a really solid player within a bad group of safety’s. You don’t draft him expecting him to start for years but he does have range. Scouts Inc ranks him as a seventh rounder.
Fifth round pick (compensatory selection)
Laurence Gibson (T, Virginia Tech)
They’ve shown a tendency to take a punt on tall, long, athletic offensive linemen in this kind of range. Gibson only started one season for the Hokies with mixed results but look at the measurables — 6-6, 305lbs, 35 1/8 inch arms, 5.04 forty, 33.5 inch vertical, 9’5″ broad jump and a 4.56 short shuttle. He’s not Garrett Scott but that’s an impressive combine performance. Scott’s rare heart condition could put his career in jeopardy — it remains to be seen whether he’ll return. If you’re drafting Sambrailo to play guard, you need depth at tackle. Gibson would be a camp project to see if he can make it at the next level as a backup in the short term. He’s rated as an UDFA by Scouts Inc.
Sixth round pick (compensatory selection)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, Southern Miss)
RNR missed the entire 2013 season with a knee injury but bounced back in 2014 to lead Southern Miss in TFL’s (14). He found a way to impact games. He’s 6-2 and 307lbs with a shade under 33 inch arms. He ran a 5.02 and posted a nice 34 inch vertical. He could sneak into the later rounds as a priority UDFA. At the combine he moved well during drills. You bring him in as a project with a shot to work into the rotation — possibly as early as this year. He plays with an edge. Scouts Inc suggests he’ll go in the seventh round.
Seventh round pick (original selection)
Rob Crisp (T, NC State)
Injuries impacted his college career but he has a ton of potential. He’s long — 6-7, 301lbs and has 34.5 inch arms. He ran a 5.26 and posted a 32.5 inch vertical (same as T.J. Clemmings). Crisp’s short shuttle was in the top-eight for offensive linemen at the combine. Nobody handled Vic Beasley better than this guy in 2014. I’m fascinated by what he can achieve with pro-coaching and a clean bill of health. I wouldn’t even rule out a starting role one day. He’s graded as a priority UDFA.
Overall draft class
Marcus Peters (CB)
Ty Sambrailo (G)
Henry Anderson (DT)
Tre McBride (WR)
Alex Carter (CB)
Darren Waller (WR)
Zach Hodges (DE)
Kurtis Drummond (S)
Laurence Gibson (T)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT)
Rob Crisp (T)
Some of the other players I considered
Steven Nelson (CB, Oregon State)
A really competitive cornerback who plays his ass off. Smaller and lacks length — would be a nickel corner in Seattle. He probably goes a bit too early for the Seahawks to consider (rounds 2-3).
Davis Tull (DE, Tenn-Chatt)
He’s going to convert to the SAM linebacker spot at the next level. Brilliant athlete and a ‘Mr. Football’ type. Again, probably goes a bit too early.
Terry Poole (T, San Diego State)
Ideal guard body and should convert inside. Really liked the way he moved at the combine. Could easily be an alternative to one of the OL prospects listed above.
Josh Shaw (S, USC)
More athletic than Drummond and might be more appealing for that reason. Off-field flags could push him into the UDFA range and perhaps he lands in Seattle as a free agent?
Nick Marshall (QB, Auburn)
If the Seahawks go corner early they might not take one in the round four range. If so, Nick Marshall is a late round option to convert from QB to CB.
Jake Fisher (T, Oregon)
The worst case scenario with Fisher is you end up with a Kyle Long-lite. He doesn’t play with Long’s intensity but he’s a similar athlete. He’s nearly identical to Joel Bitonio. If you stick at #31 he could be an option.
Cameron Erving (C/G, Florida State)
A player who can slot into any interior O-line position. Converted defensive line prospect (like J.R. Sweezy). Could be available after a trade back into round two. Bags of potential.
Nelson Agholor (WR, USC)
Seattle doesn’t care about size if you play with grit, safe hands and compete for the ball. If they bring in a top free agent TE they might go for another leaner wide out at #31 or in round two. Agholor is incredibly athletic, reliable and he’s a great kick returner.
Karlos Williams (RB, Florida State)
I watched two games on Monday and like this guy. 6-0 and 230lbs — decent vision and patience with 4.48 speed. Off-field red flags are a major turn-off. Could last into free agency as a consequence.
Damian Swann (CB, Georgia)
He’s such a playmaker and with the right coaching could be a fine cornerback. He doesn’t have the length to play outside for Seattle — but I’d love to see this coaching staff try to get the best out of this classic ball-hawk. Can he play nickel?
I didn’t take a running back. If they extend Marshawn Lynch’s contract and keep Robert Turbin and Christine Michael it’s a bit of a redundant pick — even if it’s a class you’d like to dip into. I suspect they’ll add an athletic linebacker for depth either in the later rounds or UDFA — but it won’t be someone from the combine. They might look at return specialists — I haven’t really studied the options there. I’ve picked relatively familiar names or at least players we’ve spent time discussing. We all know the Seahawks will probably draft a couple of unknowns (eg Eric Pinkins, Jimmy Staten). I don’t see any reason to draft a quarterback to develop within this class.