Ryan Tannehill actually has an evil twin named Bryan Tannehill. They lock Bryan in the garden.
Jacksonville Jaguars
They’re till a major mystery given nobody’s really sure who’s making the pick. Shahid Khan (the owner) and Gene Smith (the GM) could have different ideas about the #7 pick. Khan’s pursuit of Tim Tebow was all about ticket sales, and this is his first opportunity to get involved in a draft. Despite signing a new contract, Smith’s position was slightly undermined in the bid for Tebow and speculation has suggested he may leave the franchise after the draft. You have to believe Khan would like the big name, flashy pick. They need a receiver to help Blaine Gabbert, so Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd fits the bill. Khan may also buy into the potential of a physical specimen like Quinton Coples. Smith is more unpredictable and less inclined to fall in love with athletic potential. Stephon Gilmore, Courtney Upshaw, Whitney Mercilus, Melvin Ingram, Riley Reiff, Luke Kuechly – who knows what he’d do. It’s worth remembering that it was Smith who traded up for Gabbert and he may feel obliged to support that decision with help for the offense.
Miami Dolphins
The debate has to start with Ryan Tannehill. Mike Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M and has the inside track. You would hope – you would really, really hope – Jeff Ireland is using that resource to the maximum. Why employ Sherman otherwise? If he’s banging the table for Tannehill, and he’s on the board at #8, you would expect Miami to make that pick. However, nothing is predictable or smooth with this franchise. Ireland could just flat out ignore Sherman and go in his own direction. Tannehill might be off the board if someone trades up. Sherman may not even be giving the hard sell, especially considering he chose Jerrod Johnson over Tannehill for the Aggies. Maybe they go quarterback in round two, copying the Bengals last year? If the Dolphins don’t select a quarterback in round one they will probably look at pass rushers. Wide receiver is a greater need these days following the Brandon Marshall trade, but Joe Philbin directed an offense in Green Bay that regularly found WR talent beyond round one.
Carolina Panthers
There are several options for the Panthers, all on defense. They’ve extended Steve Smith’s contract, have a healthy stable of running backs and some nice pieces on the offensive line. Cam Newton is going to be a star in the NFL. They can keep adding to the offense, but it already has the makings of a productive unit. So this draft should be all about the defense. They have some pass rush threat, but they need more. Carolina needs a defensive tackle who can absorb the run and collapse the pocket. Cornerback and linebacker are need areas. Really, they can’t go wrong with whoever they take at #9. Ron Rivera apparently wants to use 4-3 and 3-4 looks, so scheme diversity seems to be important. Fletcher Cox, Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram and Courtney Upshaw can all work into different looks. Luke Kuechly would fit for the Panthers, while Stephon Gilmore is an en vogue suggestion in the top ten. Do they go nose tackle with Dontari Poe? Having the ninth pick is a good spot for Carolina.
Buffalo Bills
Mario Williams and Mark Anderson have added quality to the Bills defensive line, so you would assume they’ll go offense, right? A lot of people think Buffalo will keep building a defense that has to face Tom Brady twice a year. Michael Lombardi today projected Mark Barron to the Bills, while this is another place where Stephon Gilmore’s name gets mentioned. Despite all of that, they still don’t have a left tackle. What might sway things here is the way Buffalo’s front office grade the two most likely tackle options – Riley Reiff and Cordy Glenn. Both make a lot of sense, but are they good enough at #10 if the Bills can’t move down? And would they be better served taking a superior player on their board even if it’s a lesser need? There’s going to be some offensive line value at the top of round two, so maybe Buffalo does go defense at #10? Wide receiver is also perceived to be an option if Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd are available. I doubt either goes 10th overall.
Kansas City
Scott Pioli likes tough, solid football players. Then he goes and picks Jonathan Baldwin last year. I really liked Baldwin’s potential at Pittsburgh as a big, tall, athletic receiver – but people thought he was soft. The pick contradicted what a lot of people expected from Pioli. So while we stand here wondering if he’ll take Luke Kuechly or David DeCastro, maybe there’s a surprise in stall? Are they interested enough in Ryan Tannehill to move up? Will Tannehill be there at #11? Will they buy into the potential of Dontari Poe as a future nose tackle? It actually wouldn’t surprise me if KC moved above Miami to get Tannehill, allowing Jacksonville to move down a few spots. When you think about what the Chiefs need, they’re suddenly competing in a division with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. Is Matt Cassel going to get it done? There wouldn’t be pressure to play Tannehill immediately with Cassel, Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi on the roster, but he could start in year two. For some reason I have a hard time imagining Tannehill in Miami.
Seattle Seahawks
There’s really a lot of options for the #7-11 picks. Although the top five or six seem pretty secure, it could be a free-for-all beyond that. There also seems to be little difference in value from the #6 pick all the way to around #25. That shouldn’t necessarily be considered a negative for Seattle. They aren’t picking high enough to rue the fact there aren’t better top-ten players available, but they’re high enough to get one of the guys they want without worrying too much about him leaving the board. There’s likely to be a rush on defensive ends in the teens and twenties, and the Seahawks could be the catalyst. It’d be incredibly surprising if the best pass rushers left the board in the top ten, meaning the Seahawks are likely to find good value with their pick at #12. However, there’s also a case to be made for Jacksonville, Miami and Carolina all addressing that area – even if it’s unlikely all three go for defensive ends. A perfect scenario for the Seahawks could be:
#7 Kansas City (trades with Jacksonville) – Ryan Tannehill
#8 Miami – Quinton Coples
#9 Carolina – Fletcher Cox
#10 Buffalo – Riley Reiff
#11 Jacksonville – Stephon Gilmore
Only one pass rusher is off the board (Quinton Coples) leaving plenty of options for the Seahawks at #12. A worst case scenario would see Jacksonville stay put and Miami simply pass on Tannehill, making it extremely possible pass rushers are drafted at #7, #8 and #9. The Seahawks won’t want to contemplate that scenario.
IMO A perfect scenario would have couples falling to 12. This would allow our FO to draft him if they like or provide a trade back if that is indeed what they want to do. Or they draft some one else, but it provides them with options.
Given Mayock’s recent praise for Kuechly as one of the best cover backers to come out in the last 10 years or so, don’t you think that would seem to fit what we are trying to do with the linebacker position? How much of a dropoff is there from Kuechly to someone like Mychal Kendricks or L. David? Obviously it isn’t likely that any of these guys are going to affect the pass rush, which is what your sources have told you will be targeted with the 1.12 pick…
Thanks for the hard (great) work you put into the site.
Today
1. Coples, DE or trade down if he is gone.
2. R. Lewis, OLB
3. Polk, RB
4. Iolka, S (sp)
6. Harnish, QB
7. Moore, QB
The best possible scenario in my eyes would play out something like this:
Jacksonville: Michael Floyd – (Justin Blackmon if STL likes Floyd better) – or Riley Reiff
Miami: A top rated pass rusher NOT on the Seahawks board – Let’s say Quinton Coples, for example.
Carolina: Stephan Gilmore or Fletcher Cox
Buffalo: Riley Reiff or Michael Floyd
Kansas City: David DeCastro or Michael Brockers
That leave Seattle with their top pass-rusher on their board (Ingram, Upshaw, or Mercilus), Luke Kuechly, and at least the OPTION of selecting Ryan Tannehill if they have him highly rated.
That, to me, would be the perfect scenario. Please NFL Draft Gods, ignore the millions of other fans and listen to me only! 🙂
I think Bills, Fins, and Jags all go offense. Bills want WR and OL. Jags want WR, CB, DE, OLB. MIA needs QB, WR the most. I wouldn’t be surprised if two of those teams snag both top WRs. Jags most likely of the three to go CB, but have to surround Gabbert with weapons.
I’m with Misfit on this one but I think that Floyd might go before Blackmon because, you know, it is the Jags and then Blackmon to Miami. Bills better go OT.
Tannehill to a team that trades for KC’s spot (Eagles?).
Yes the top two receivers will go early. It’s going to be a tough decision if Upshaw and Kuechly are available.
Would it be out of question that maybe Seattle trades up for a pass rusher they really covet, say Upshaw? What if Jax trades with Seattle for number 7? If he’s good enough for 12, why not at 7? Why is QB only worth trading up for? Instead of waiting for chicken thighs, go get that big piece of chicken!
Interesting thoughts. I disagree with your position that rushers are taken #7, #8, #9, is a horrible scenario because in that case the Seahawks likely take Tannehill. I think they like his potential and he would not be expected to play in 2012. Would I trade Josh Portis for Ryan Tannehill? In a New York minute.
I would honestly not be upset if the Seahawks took someone like Michael Brockers
I kind of hope the seahawks trade with the Eagles. Move back a few spots, and gain some of the picks from the 3/5 rnd range that the Eagles have decent amount of picks at.
If that does not happen, DE/OLB Hybrid im sure is the pick.
Trading up will cost draft picks and we don’t need to jump four picks, give up picks, when their is plenty of talent in this draft.
I’m with Carl. He’s fallen in light of his combine measurables in draftnik’s eyes. But very very solid and now turning to be underrated. I’ll be surprised if he’s not one of the first defensive players gone.
“making it extremely possible pass rushers are drafted at #7, #8 and #9. The Seahawks won’t want to contemplate that scenario.”
NO, that’s a great scenario! That leaves M. Floyd at 12. Cincy at 21 or (more likely) Clevland at 22 will give us boucoo picks to trade spots. We get Shea McClelin at 21 or 22! And a 2nd and 5th or some such.
If Stephon Gilmore falls to us, I hope he is going to be the pick. He’s big, physical and fast. He also can be a punt or kickoff returner. Having him and Sherman as corners will provide a formidable tandem for years to come.
I think Stuart has been drinking that Kiper kool aid.
I think the ideal scenario leaves Tannehill and Coples on the board at #12. That would make the #12 spot the Tannehill sweepstakes. With a few other teams maybe covetting Coples insane potential.
In that case, a trade down would be highly likely – with someone overpaying. I believe JS/PC like Tannehill, but they’d get an offer too good to pass up in this scenario. Getting a second #2 in this particular draft would set JS up perfectly to get the WLB (David, Kendricks, Lewis) AND either a QB project, a RB, a WR, a surprise OL pick, or even a second pass rusher – the second #2 really can become a “luxury item”. All of the above assumes pass rusher is the pick with the later #1. If Fleener or Barron was the pick, I’d expect that second #2 to be a pass rusher.
KC trading up makes sense, but don’t count Miami trading up to get Tannehill either. Tampa Bay could move back to shake things up:
5. Miami – Tannehill
6. Rams – Blackmon (Cox gaining momentum)
7. Jags – Claiborne
8. Tampa – Gilmore
9. Panthers – Cox
10. Bills – Rieff
11. KC – Kuechly
12. Seahawks – Floyd
DE be damned at 12.
Everyone seems to have Tannehill and Richardson locked up in the top 10 and the Seahawks taking a linebacker or an end.
Firstly I dont think Tannehill and Richardson are locks in the top 10. Tannehill will definately be gone, to many QB needy teams ahead of us (the most glaring one being Miami). But Richardson? Most of those teams up there already have a stud runningback, and the position doesn’t have the value that it did even 2 or 3 years ago. Lets face it-3 QB’s passed for over 5k yards last year. This is a passing league now, which dictates a smaller, quicker runningback. Not saying Richardson couldn’t do that, but alot of teams would pass on him.
Richardson could easily fall to the Seahawks at 12, and if he does Seattle would pounce on him, both as a backup/3rd down back, and as a possible future replacement to Beast mode.
“Well, then trade down….” lots of people are saying. However, what happens when you have every team from Minnesota (no. 3 overall) down to about 25 overall wanting to trade down? This draft is especially flat from 7 through 50, and that makes EVERYONE just wanting more picks and hoping to trade down.
I started advocating a trade down months ago, but now that so many teams are looking to trade down, the odds of Seattle finding a trading partner is near zero. So forget it…..the only way a trade down will happen is if we see players under contract getting traded for draft picks or packaged with trading up or down.
Along those lines I like Obo or Butler or even my dark horse for future pro bowls, Durham being put up for trade bait. Or Lockette. We spent no draft picks on him, and put him in for a few plays towards the end of the season, and he made a couple of spectacular receptions, and got his name in last years record book for longest average/yards/reception – so if we could get a second round pick for him, I would take it and worry, but I would take it. Maybe that is naive thinking anyone would give that much for Lockette, but crazy things happen.
Could we trade M Williams for draft picks? Portis? TJax (please do not throw rotten vegetables at me for being stupid, I know how some of you would respond to such an idea for about 238 different reasons, but we don’t know how highly they rate Portis after one year of development. Anything is possible, even Pep Livingston making a pro bowl.
What is almost impossible to happen is we trade down at the last minute in this upcoming draft.
In the above scenario, the reason only one pass rusher is taken in the first eleven picks is because this draft doesn’t have ANY sure fire, won’t bust, long armed, fast, athletic, mean and nasty, really strong pass rushers, and most of them that have a glimmer of a hope of becoming elite pass rushers do so while being re-positioned from DE to OLB or from OLB to DE. Re-positioning players rarely have “bust proof” as part of their resume.
In fact, plenty of the really promising pass rushers will last till the second or even third round. Guys like Curry and Irvin. Even Mercilus could last till the second round. There is just too much talent from 7 through 50 and beyond to keep all of them in the first round.
I like Kuechley for Seattle at 1.12. He is flawless. He has failed no where. He has never been asked to rush the passer so those who say he presents no pass rush potential are out of their minds. He reminds me of Payton Manning. He is a true Defensive QB with lots of smarts, and a relentless desire to get better through training and study. He loves football, and breathes it. He is the most focused player in the draft. If such a thing exists, he is bust-proof.
If he is gone, I am leaning towards Mercilus, who I said MIGHT last into the second round, yet, not likely very darn far into the second round, and he might go before us at 1.12, but with a Mercilus early surprise, and one more surprise – which would be normal, that would almost certainly make Kuechley slide to us at 1.12.
If both of them are gone….THAT would worry me. In that case, maybe Cox would fall. Certainly Coples would be left. I draw the line on DE and LB’s worthy of our pick at 1.12.
If, in order, Kuechley, Cox, Mercilus, and Coples are ALL gone, then …..in order, I would take Tannehill, DeCastro, Gilmore, or Barron. This is assuming the top 6 “elite” players will be taken as advertised before we can get them.
Considering it is a pass happy league, Kuechly would be a good choice. He could stand to gain a few pounds. Also in consideration would be Barron as a third safety on the field (even lighter yet). We should be awesome in pass coverage.
Soggy – I guess your not a big fan of Upshaw, Ingram or Coples? They would all be considered steals in the second round. But they won’t be available then. Mercilus might be good. I like Cox but we already have DT out the wazoo. In fact, I really don’t see a need to draft defensive line in the first when we have a bunch of players already. We need linebackers.
I have been fighting the trade down crowd for awhile. They make it sound so simple, we will just trade down and get two draft picks…. Yeah – But if you don’t think it is worth picking at our draft spot then why would someone else be willing to trade two draft picks for our spot? The other teams aren’t stupid. It won’t happen unless some team has a lot of picks to blow. That would be New England who probably won’t trade up, or Cleveland who might trade. They got double picks in rounds 1, and 5-7 to deal.
Bobby Cink – pass rush is they key here. Whatever the team is trying to do at linebacker, it comes secondary to the pass rush.
D – The big thing that will stop Floyd going to Jacksonville are the off-field issues. If Gene Smith has any say what so ever, Floyd won’t be the pick.
Kevin Mullen – I’m pretty confident Seattle won’t trade up.
Tom Page – Seattle not interested in taking a QB in round one this year. Tannehill not as coveted as the Seahawks want you to think. Let’s not forget, everyone was at the Washington pro-day last year too. Jake Locker was the team’s 6th ranked QB.
Phil – Cincy aren’t going to make a move like that. They have a nice collection of picks and will let the draft come to them. They don’t need to make a big move up for a WR in a deep WR class when they already have AJ Green.
Jake – #12 is only the hot spot for Tannehill or Coples if teams think Arizona will take them.
Tarryhawk – Seattle will go defense in round one. Book it.
Joe – Trent Richardson might be the best player in the draft. He will not get out of the top-six.
Soggyblogger, you might want to actually watch some game tape of Kuechly. His flaws are pretty evident even on highlight films. He does not take on blockers well. He runs around them rather than stacking and shedding. That is why 95% of his tackles are 5-10 yards down field. That doesn’t bode well for him taking on pro blockers if he had problems in the ACC. Another flaw is he usually doesn’t square up the ball carrier when making tackles. More often he drags them down while they fall forward. Again, that probably won’t work as well in the NFL. And yes he did rush the QB from time to time. He just wasn’t very good at it so he wasn’t asked to do it much. Or we could talk about his numbers being inflated by playing on a really bad team. Not that college numbers are all that important. If they were, Case Keenum would be the #1 pick. Kuechly is a good zone coverage linebacker that has great instincts and is a great leader. He also plays a devalued position and is no where near the complete prospect that Willis and Urlacher was. Those kind of players just don’t often get picked in the top 20. Unless someone like Kiper falls in love with the kid personally and watches tape only looking for good things.
I wonder if Gilmore was sitting there at 12 if we’d consider him? Kirkpatrick? Will we give CB consideration in the early rounds at all? Makes me wonder, esp. with all this nickle defense talk. I don’t think Barron is on the teams first-round board, myself, though.
I did watch film of Kuechley, and I didn’t see him miss a single tackle. The “all his tackles were five yards down field” is an exaggeration made by people who don;t like the pick. I don’t remember him ever rushing the passer, but I only watched a couple of games. He might have and I missed it, but with his speed and instincts, I think he will rush the passer with good speed and little hesitation if he sees an open lane. However, his primary duties would be to drop into passing lanes on passing downs since that is his strength. By adding better coverage, we will get a few more “coverage sacks” along with Jones’ length which should obstruct passing lanes even more. Kuechley would shore up the LB spot, and allow us to take a pass rusher in the second round. Someone like Curry, Irvin, Kendricks, or even one of the three (Ingram, Upshaw, or less likely Coples) would drop down to the second round.
I do like Coples – just not as much as Kuechley. I really like Cox, but he’s unlikely to be available at our spot.
I actually like Kuechly, alot. I do not feel the value at 12 however. He is a solid MLB but what you feel is an exaggeration by some of the people are not entirely false, mixed bag imo. He has great speed, sniffs out plays well, from what I have read a good leader, but he as all players have some negative. His tackling is much to be desired. I imagine a good NFL back getting tackled by Kuech means he will gain another yard and does tend to run lateral on run plays. This is where I would love the hawks trade back.
Rob, I think you are locked into a pass rusher at #12. Sure they want to improve their pass rush but there is plenty of pass rush talent throughout the draft. I expect them to trade back for more picks. There are teams that will want to move up. Only a couple guys really stand out at #12 and they are the WR’s and Tannehill. I think the Hawks might go for a TD maker if these guys drop.
With Tannehill I think that pick depends entirely on their confidence in Josh Portis. Assuming TJax is beaten out he will go FA next year. The Hawks would be right back in desperate need for a QB unless they have high regard for Portis.