About a month ago I posted an initial ‘mock draft’ which was really designed to identify prospects we need to keep an eye on for 2013. Of course it’s far too early to try and make a logical projection, but updating the mock today is a chance to see how stock is rising or falling and if any news names have come into focus.
I’ve determined the draft order myself without the use of power rankings or record/strength of schedule. I wanted to put the Seahawks exactly in the middle of the pack to see how things shape out. I also wanted to show a scenario that would see the team selecting a quarterback in round one for the first time in 20 years.
This isn’t a review of Russell Wilson, who is doing just about everything you should expect of him at this stage (see this piece I wrote earlier in the week). If Wilson becomes the issue that holds the team back, then it’s time to look at Matt Flynn. But that isn’t the case right now and he deserves time on the field to try and prove he is a legitimate quarterback of the future.
If he can do that, then what I’ve written below becomes almost redundant. The Seahawks are not going to overload on one position if they believe they have a guy that can get the job done at quarterback. But what if Wilson doesn’t totally convince everyone he’s the answer? In that situation the front office would have to make a judgement call – are other options out there in the draft that will upgrade the position? If they identify a player who can do that, they should take him. Right now the passing game is the weakest unit on the team. They have to make any improvements that are possible, including continuing to look at the quarterback position.
I believe this is one of the main reasons why they’ll stick by Russell Wilson this year. Although they want to win as many games as possible and that remains the priority, they also want to know exactly what he’s capable of. Immediately after the 2012 draft at the start of May I wrote on this blog: “Seattle has to be prepared next year. They need to know if the big move is necessary or if they’ve already found the answer. They’ll only find out by starting Russell Wilson. So why not?” Wilson ultimately won the job and Pete Carroll put himself in a position to find out if he’s good enough to lead this team. But he won’t find that out in 4-5 games, which is why I think he’s going to stick by the third round pick longer than some people anticipate.
And for those people saying, “Any new quarterback is still going to be throwing to the same guys and playing behind the same pass protection” – I hear that argument but what are you going to do? Reach for a lesser talent at receiver? There simply isn’t that top-end wide out in this draft class and nobody is emerging to be that guy. There is a lot of depth though, so there’s every chance of improving the position in rounds two or three. The mock below is why I wrote about the QB debate lingering into the off-season. The fact one of Carroll’s best guys from USC enters the league next April only adds to the potential drama.
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#1 Jarvis Jones (DE/LB Georgia) Extreme athlete and playmaker. Needs to show it in the big, close games if he’s going to go this early. |
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#2 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) Prolific start to 2012 but will face tougher challenges along the way. Smith must avoid the off-days we saw last year. |
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#3 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback prospect. He can cover, he can play run support, he’s a ball hawk and has elite recovery speed. |
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#4 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) Indy needs a nose tackle for their 3-4 scheme. Jenkins is huge but moves well for his size and can anchor a defense. |
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#5 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Lotulelei continues to flash incredible athleticism, but not consistency. Huge upside but needs polish. |
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#6 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) He lost weight this year to improve his speed rush, but he could get bigger to fit any scheme. |
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#7 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) Richardson’s had a big impact this year and will be a big riser. Pure three-technique and an explosive interior pass rusher. |
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#8 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) He could go higher than this. Warmack is the best guard to enter the league in a long time. Immediate starter. |
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#9 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) Te’o is winning teams over with turnovers and intangibles. He’s not the athlete Luke Kuechly is, but he makes more plays. |
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#10 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Underrated defensive tackle. He’s a little older as a JUCO transfer but has 4.5 sacks in five games this year. |
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#11 Brennan Williams (OT, North Carolina) Williams is the best offensive tackle prospect in a mediocre year for the position. St. Louis will look to sure up their offensive line. |
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#12 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia) Off field concerns are legit, but so is the talent. He has the athleticism to play safety and the size to play linebacker. |
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#13 Corey Lemonier (DE, Auburn) Due to his size, Lemonier is likely to project as a 3-4 outside rusher. The Jets will like this guy. |
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#14 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) Jordan quietly has three sacks this year. His 6-7, 241lbs frame will entice teams and he could be a fast riser. |
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#15 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State) He can play both schemes but looks best as a one-technique with size and athleticism. |
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#16 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) There’s only one scenario where the Seahawks don’t consider this, and that’s if Russell Wilson proves he’s the obvious QBOTF for this team. |
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#17 Kawann Short (DT, Purdue) Another athletic three technique prospect that can rush the passer and fill running lanes. |
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#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) He could go higher than this but two guards going in the top-15 would be unique. Excellent prospect. |
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#19 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) He’s rushing the passer extremely well at A&M and making big plays. Moore looked very good against Arkansas. |
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#20 C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama) Another linebacker off the production line at Alabama. He will start in the league immediately and play at a strong level. |
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#21 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) Thomas is playing guard with the Vols this year but has the athleticism to switch back to tackle. |
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#22 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) He had his first sack of the year against Towson this week. It’s still been an underwhelming start for Mingo in 2012. |
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#23 Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State) Solid cornerback prospect and the clear #2 to Dee Milliner at the position. |
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#24 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) He’s showing pure playmaking quality at WVU this year. RGIII had Kendall Wright, Geno Smith has Tavon Austin. |
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#25 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) Not the biggest linebacker but he moves sideline-to-sideline to well and will be an immediate starter. |
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#26 Keenan Allen (WR, California) Philly will likely search for value and Allen has the physical tools to warrant a first round pick. The combine will define his stock. |
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#27 Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee) He still doesn’t look 100% but time is on his side. If he can prove the knee isn’t an issue then he’s a first rounder. |
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#28 Luke Joeckel (OT, Texas A&M) He’s a better athlete than Matthews but not quite as steady. Arizona needs a guy who can play the blindside. |
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#29 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Great character, high motor and a solid pass rusher. You can picture him in San Francisco’s defense. |
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| #30 Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU) Baltimore always make good choices and Montgomery would add another piece to their pass rush. |
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#31 Robert Woods (WR, USC) He’s made some great plays this year but a lack of size will dictate his stock. He’s a top-15 talent who could fall a little. |
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#32 Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina) Patient runner who gets tough yards – but injury history and a lack of straight line speed could make him available here. |
Good grief. Six DT’s, 14 DL overall, and 19 defensive players overall. This is a year for defense, alright. Interesting that only two QBs crack the top 32 right now. Can’t see much argument against it at this point.
Tyler Wilson could easily still be a top-32 pick but it’s hard to include him at this stage. Although it is harder this year to identify multiple teams who would consider going QB in round one.
Do you really think Barkley will fall that much. $ weeks ago he was consensus first pick by a mile, and he is dropping the 16th? I feel that there are too many teams that need a QB badly enough before us to let him slip that far.
From the tape I have seen so far, keeping in mind i am no draft scout, he seems to be suffering a huge disparity in o-line quality from last year. He looks jumpy and his decision making is not there. Can any qb be blamed for that? It is a major adjustment away from working with Matt Kalil, and i think after 4 games, he still may be adjusting to the porus nature of his o-line. Or perhaps there are other underlying worries I am not aware of?
Can you name the teams that need a QB that badly?
I could see Oakland, Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Buffalo as teams that might take Barkley. Oakland needs to get past Carson Palmer ASAP. Matt Cassell gets worse every week. Jacksonville may decide they have seen enough of Blaine Gabbert. Buffalo, despite the bazilion $$ contract awarded to Ryan Fitzpatrick last year, may decide that it’s time to move on.
So really, I think we’re in great shape to move up and get our QBOTF if Russell doesn’t progress well this year.
I’m not sure Buffalo would go for MB – mainly because of the type of QB’s Chan Gailey goes for. Plus the investment in Fitzpatrick – which was motivated by him. Oakland is a logical choice but I had them going a different direction here with an excellent prospect in Warmack. I’m not sure Jacksonville will move on from Gabbert so soon unless they replace the GM who drafted him. This is the first time in a while that there aren’t a cluster of teams that are obviously looking for a new QB.
I agree. There are some teams who will be in the market next offseason (Oakland, Kansas City) and other teams could put themselves in the market depending on how their quarterbacks play in 2012 (Seattle, Arizona, San Fran, NY Jets) and there may even be some surprises (Dallas, Philly, Tampa). So it’ll be interesting.
Don’t forget Cleveland and Tennessee.
Maybe not need badly. Here’s the teams I think would consider trading up to secure him (i.e. to avoid the Browns ‘I hope RG3 falls to us’ scenario)
1. KC
2. Oakland
3. NYJ
4. Arizona
I think these teams would not only take him if he fell, but if it looked like they could move up to preclude other teams from jumping them for him — I can see them doing it.
The following teams I could see taking him if he fell, but probably not be willing to spend picks to do it:
1. Cleveland.
2. New Orleans
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. New England
6. Philadelphia
7. San Francisco
Cleveland, I don’t get the sense they are committed to Weeden. He is also 29. If any franchise knows how long it takes to get a shot at a good QB prospect, it would be Cleveland.
New Orleans is pretty much where we were at in 2006 or most certainly where Green Bay was in 2005. They have a franchise guy heading on the backside of 30. Getting Barkley is their Aaron Rodgers move And it looks like NO will not have to trade up to do it.
Dallas is in a tough position. Romo is advancing in age but realistically looks like he’s got a good 4-6 years left. I just believe he’s already damaged goods as far as the fans are concerned and if Dallas plays like this for 2 seasons, the calls for his head will be deafening. Dallas has too much talent on the roster to consistently be in the top 10 selections. They could likewise take him. If not, I believe they trade to the team that wants him most. I don’t expect Barkley lasts beyond whatever pick Dallas owns.
New England: See New Orleans. These are teams that know the value of franchise QBs.
Philadelphia: Vick is advancing. He is also not durable. This is a team that can have postseason success, but they have to expect a significant portion of the season or maybe the entire postseason will be without Vick under center.
San Francisco: If there is a team with a more wanderlust eye than SF, I’d like somebody to name them. Smith is the homely ‘safe’ girl you settle on when there aren’t any hotties to stalk.
That’s 11 teams I can see realistically taking him in the first round.
Could be just me, but I think it’s another top heavy draft like last year.
I think there’s a dropoff at around top 8 or 9 after Warmack and Teo. Kinda like last year where there was a dropoff after Mark Barron at 7.
Alex
Defense alone will carry this team to 8-8 or better. So if RW can make a few plays along the way…which is a good bet…i don’t see PC\JS drafting another qb in any round. They will not give RW many opportunities to lose a game or win it based on pure qb play alone. By pure qb play…i mean over 25 pass attempts and less than 25 rush attempts. Barkley will not be on the board…someone will trade up just as they did last year to grab Griffin. The niners or eagles seem like a good match to trade up for Barkley. The niners don’t seem too excited about Kaepernick as far as being a game manager that Harbaugh prefers…or it might be that Barkley is an excellent game manager…he fits into their scheme so well that they cannot resist trading up. The Eagles would match Barkley and Ried and their excellent young offensive weapons and prosper. I think the seahawks try to find a younger and healthier Kellen Winslow in the draft…perhaps Keenan Allen or maybe even Sefarin-Jenkins from UW…or a tight end like him…if he comes out. I see them drafting 22-26 range.
Not sure why the Seahawks wouldn’t consider a QB at 8-8 because the QB won’t win/lose a game alone but San Francisco at potentially 12-13 wins would? And I would also add – Kaepernick got a lot of action at the weekend and may be closer to contention there than we think. Let’s not rule out PC’s admiration for Barkley here either or the likelihood that the Seahawks are going to draft a quarterback most years – its how John Schneider was raised. Another note – Austin Seferian-Jenkins is not eligible for the 2013 draft.
i don’t think Harbaugh is enamored with his current qb situation…with Smith or Kaepernick, i admit it’s a long shot that they would trade up since they would have to give up a-lot in my opinion to move from the bottom end of the draft to the top. If Barkley falls to the the 12-16 range…it’s more likely. Smith’s contract carries less weight than Flynn’s…so i think they’re in play for Barkley. Expectations are high in SF…and if Smith has another mediocre playoff performance…it might be a tipping point. Wilson at 8-8 has more promise and probably earns the right to make or break Carroll in this latest pro coaching tenure. Smith and Vick are known commodities. Does the current Seahawk regime have enough time to develop Barkley? How ready is he to step in and improve over a second year Russel Wilson? To answer my own questions…I think they have decided that Wilson is the qb of the future, and that Barkley is not a significent improvement…over a second year Wilson-i think he will be a step back in qb play in the short term. Time-wise…I think that if Carroll misses the playoffs this year and next…he is gone.
Two points I’d make there – I think we need to get away from judging in what scenario Carroll will be ‘gone’. How long did Holmgren get to make a Super Bowl? This idea that there’s a timescale on Seattle getting to the playoffs is very much in sync with this impatient approach I think Seahawks fans have developed recently. We cannot look at this in a black and white ‘fired or not fired’ way. If the Seahawks go 3-13 and 4-12 then yeah maybe he gets fired? But what if he goes 8-8 and 9-7 but doesn’t make the post season because the 49ers continue to win 10-13 games? Is he fired then?
And that kind of answers the other point. Yes – Carroll has time to develop another QB. And you know what – he wouldn’t worry about that anyway if he believed he had to have Matt Barkley. This coaching staff and front office is not in the business of working to put all their eggs in one quarterback’s basket. They’ll do what is best for the team every year. And if that means drafting Barkley, they’ll draft Barkley. I guarantee they haven’t decided Wilson is the QBOTF and we can only guess their opinion on whether they see Barkley or any other player as an upgrade. They may think Wilson could be the guy, they may hope he can be the guy, but they won’t have made any decisions like that.
Yeah, the Carroll situation is kinda like the Gary Kubiak situation two years. Gary Kubiak had several 8-8, 9-7 seasons and then he suddenly had a 6-10 season due to league worst passing defense. People in Houston were calling for his job. The management stuck with Kubiak but cleaned house on the defensive staff with Bush out and Wade Phillips in.
I do think if Carroll has a 6-10 or another 7-9 season with this running game and defense that we’ll be cleaning house on the offensive staff, but I think the management will still stick with Carroll and the defensive staff.
I wonder if this is a case where Carroll should just hire like a offensive czar to run that side of the ball. I mean draft, develop, and game plan with JSchneider. I know the Texans had a nice turn around when they brought in Wade Phillips to sort of run that defense. I’m not sure how much say he has on drafting defense…but i’m sure it’s significant. Maybe this is what Tom Cable is supposed to be? He’s great for the running game, but not very renowned for his passing game plans. It seems like every offensive pick so far in the first five rounds or so has been less than successful. Is Carroll too involved? Does he need to take a step back from the offensive philosophy? I think he is hiring young guys like Bevell and Bates so that he can micro manage the offense. He had his most success at USC when he had an older guy…Norm Chow…running his offense.
I think Carroll is willing to be hands off as long as the offense fits into what he wants. For all of Carroll’s West Coast background, he actually likes the Mike Shanahan Zone Blocking, Run-Heavy West Coast Offense, which actually looks closer to the Mike Martz Air Coryell Offense than the Bill Walsh/Mike Holmgren methodical/precision based West Coast Offense.
Look at the last two hires- Jeremy Bates and Bevell. Both of them run a run-heavy, bootleg vertical passing game. Bates directly came from Shanahan’s tree while Bevell runs pretty much the same thing except they used a Man to Man Blocking Scheme in Minnesota.
This is actually quite different from the traditional WCO where they work the short and intermediate route a lot to spread out the defense and bring in the safeties. Once the defense is spread, the running game should open up. Once the safeties are sucked in, the 7 step vertical passes open up. Once the lead is safe, run the ball to eat the clock and tire out your opponent. They still use the bootleg, but in much less frequency compared to the Shanahan version.
When Carroll was at SC and brought in Chow, Chow brought with him a Man to Man Blocking Scheme with a methodical/precision offense (similar to the Walsh WCO) composed on mainly 5 step drops (intermediate routes). After one year, Carroll stepped in and used the Zone Blocking Scheme and switched to more 3 step drops and bootlegs. Sound familiar? To me, it sounds almost like the Shanahan offense. With that being said, Chow did a great job play calling and scheming.
ok…good points and details, but what about offensive draft philosophy? This is the third year of the Carroll regime…we have Okung…average at best, Tate…ditto, Sydney Rice…sort of like a draft pick…similar to Okung…flashes of potential but injury prone and more or less inconsistent, Miller in the same vein has been less than expected and is posting career low pass catching numbers, Carpenter…Moffit-injured and still unknown…although Carpenter looked good last week at LG, i don’t know…i just look at their defensive picks and expect a similar success on offense.
Couple things to respond to Rob:
1. I agree, circumstances will dictate Carroll’s job security. This is year 3. I do believe that postseason participation isn’t required. But I do believe if that doesn’t happen, then the hope of imminent postseason play is. Certainly this year is about Wilson and developing. But, if we’re sitting here in December of 2013 with essentially no reasonable prospects of having solved this QB position and again are in a ‘let’s wait a few years to get/develop a guy — basically not panic and hope for the best in 2016’, then I think he doesn’t get the chance to draft in 2014. He’s not on the hot seat. But he’s on 2013’s waiting list if Wilson isn’t the guy and we didn’t hedge that bet already.
2. Holmgren did take 6 years to get to the SB. But if you recall, in his third year, he was literally on the verge of getting run out of town. By that time he had already faced the owner’s ultimatum of demotion from the GM spot or you’re fired scenario. I’d say that Matt Hasselbeck finally popping in the last 6 weeks of 2002 literally saved Mike’s job. Mike didn’t have postseason success by his third year. But by the end of the third year, there was legitimate hope that we’d get there.
We don’t have to make the postseason. But we are going to need hope and soon. And I don’t think an 8-8 record to back door into the playoffs would be sufficient. If Wilson isn’t it or look like he likely will be it this year, Pete is going to have to go into 2013 with the career defining decision of sticking with him or getting a legit vet, or a prospect with some juice.
Wilson, and/or the QB they pick in 2013 will be the litmus test of whether building a team like this is feasible. This fan base as a whole has been waiting for the QB position to be addressed for 5 years now — 6 years come next year, not just the 3 that Pete has overseen the club. He’s going to be smeared by the prior sins of the club. For some QBOTF afficionados, this wait has been even longer.
It is important to stay the course with PC and JS IMO. It is fairly rare for it to “pop” right away like Belichick and Payton for example. Kubiak,McCarthy,Coughlin come to mind as examples as why it is important to stay the course.
Though I have to believe that without improvement over the season Bevell could be in trouble. You gotta keep Tom Cable, and fair or not, he may be a ways away from another HC opportunity due to that circus in Oakland.
On the other hand, Gus Bradley could potentially be gone to a HC position due to his quality,youth and personality.
Man, I really like Robert Woods, but fair or not, I have to agree with Rob’s projected spot for him. He doesn’t have great speed, his height is adequate and his weight is substandard – and without some variable combo of + height/weight/speed WRs don’t go really high. He’ll prove to be a major steal as he just knows how to play the position (stellar routes,great hands,natural seperation ability). Lack of standout measurables affected the draft positions of Marvin Harrison,Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings and Victor Cruz amongst others. Woods just knows how to play and whoever drafts him will look extremely smart for doing so.
Yeah, if we can grab him in the second oooh baby, watchout.
Good stuff Rob (per usual).
Still torn on Barkley. Won’t lie, was loving him last year and not necessarily from stats. Looked more decisive and accurate. I guess my biggest concern, is that I have seen zero up tick in his velocity. Thought he might be able to dial it up a notch.
That said, hard to argue with value at 16.
I would love this draft… last year. I hope we don’t need Barkely. That said, Barkley is intriguing.
We could still end up needing Barkley or a 1st round QB.
I like Wilson, but there is a strong chance that he becomes merely a solid backup and top notch person that sets the work ethic tone for the QB room. That is still good value in the 3rd round where guys are really hit or miss. This teams is going to be better for having Wilson on it – be it as starting QB or in a different capacity.
Great points and completely agree. Super value in the 3rd round getting a possible QB starter with upside but a safe backup QB who brings a ton of credibility and intangibles to the room. Great little snippet.