Updated first round mock draft 11/09

We’re half way through the 2010 NFL season and it’s time for an updated mock draft. I’ve decided to award Carolina the #1 overall pick in this latest projection. My reasoning? Whilst Buffalo continue to lose (0-8) they’re getting closer and improving. Carolina are getting worse, with a rookie quarterback and a lame duck head coach. Looking at the schedules, Carolina may not win again. Buffalo are capable of two wins in my opinion.

To see the latest projection click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

The Seahawks are now picking 12th overall instead of 21st. They’re tied for the division lead with St. Louis, but it’s difficult to project Seattle winning the division after a 74-10 implosion the past two weeks.

The pick however, remains the same.

I said last week that I wanted to go through different projections to review the possibilities the team had depending on where they select. Although the pick itself isn’t different – the position is (9 spots further up the board). I want to represent how I think the Seahawks position may not necessarily change depending on their draft position.

The team has many needs, but I maintain that none are greater than a long term investment at quarterback. If the front office and coaching staff see a QB they can build around – they have to take them. That remains the case if the team picks 30th overall or 10th.

I could’ve given the team Julio Jones instead – a tall receiver and an area the team has targeted for improvement (Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson). Janoris Jenkins is a talented cover corner with the size the team covets at the position. Justin Houston has ten sacks this year and fits the LEO position perfectly. Nick Fairley is flying up the boards after a dominant year for unbeaten Auburn.

All would’ve fit that 12th overall position, fit the team’s scheme and make sense it terms of the team’s needs. However, without that investment in the quarterback – it just seems irrelevant.

To throw you a theory – the Seahawks wouldn’t necessarily have to start aforementioned rookie QB in year one. This would offer the opportunity to keep building through two drafts, two free agency’s and at least one full season to provide a better environment for your rookie starter. The QB could then start with a year under his belt with a greater understanding of the playbook.

Delaying the inevitable and necessary investment in a QB will allow the team to build up other areas. However – eventually you’ll have to pull the trigger and the longer it’s left – the more likely it is that rookie will have to start. Some have coped admirably in that scenario (Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford) whilst many others have struggled.

It’s not about waiting for the ‘perfect’ quarterback. Inevitably every year people speculate on how the following draft will provide much greater options. If you see a quarterback with the potential to be good, there’s no reason to wait endlessly for the guy who has the potential to be great. You’ll only ever have a one-in-32 chance of drafting that prospect anyway.

Clearly the Seahawks need to keep improving both lines. They need playmakers on offense. But it all starts with the quarterback – and having that guy in place and not immediately rushed into the line-up can be a difference maker. Just ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – last in the NFL sacks, hopeless for the most part last year – but winning and competing in 2010.

Do you agree or disagree with the latest mock draft? Are you a fan of another team who can offer some advice on team needs or likely picks? Do you disagree with my opinion on Seattle’s need to draft a quarterback? Let me know in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com


  1. Ralphy

    I see you continue having the Dolphins select a RB. I know Ricky is getting up there in age and Ronnie gets dinged up a lot but it doesn’t seem like their biggest need.

    As a UW and Seahawks season ticket holder I don’t know how I feel about the Locker pick. Part of me would love to see it but another part would hate it after watching four year of over throws. I agree with you that it is impossible to judge him based on how awful his line is which is why I think he could still end up going higher than this based on what I expect him to do at the combine. It seems there are a few workout freaks that catapult themselves to the top of the draft every year based on their workout and everyone forgets what they did (or didn’t) do in college. He seems to me to be the perfect candidate for being that person this year.

    • Rob

      This is actually only the second time I’ve had Miami selecting a running back. Last time I had them taking an OLB. I’ve actually seen Miami three times this year and they simply aren’t getting it done on the ground. They’re a bit unbalanced. Ingram for me is an incredible talent and at that point he’s a steal. Brown is a free agent and I think Williams is too – one of them won’t be there next season.

  2. gospiller

    It happens certainly that Car get 1st ovr.

    But I dont think they pick Luck

    They picked Clausen and Pike this year.

    Certainly,Clausen didn’t play well so far.

    But it is too early to give up him.

    They have too many hall to pick up for other posision.

    • Rob

      Hi gospiller,

      The reason I have Carolina taking a quarterback are for two main reasons. Firstly, there will be major changes in the offseason. A complete overhaul in the running of that team. Whilst the current regime invested in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike, the next regime will not have any ties to those two quarterbacks. When you arrive at a team and need to re-launch, particularly with the #1 pick, if you don’t have a franchise QB – you take one. Clausen and Pike will be irrelevant in that decision.

      Secondly, Clausen’s face didn’t fit with a lot of teams – that’s one of the reasons he fell last year. For that reason too – his cost is relatively cheap. The financial tie to Clausen is minimal.

      But essentially – they’re a team without an obvious starting QB. The new coaches and staff won’t invest their own success on other people’s picks. They need a QB – it’s their #1 need. It wouldn’t so much be giving up on him, rather getting their own guy. Luck is significantly better than Clausen.

  3. Andy

    You’ve got to change your Bears logo. Your little logo slice things are awesome but the Bears one has got to be fixed!

    Oh yeah, and great mock.

    • Rob

      I do have a Bears logo – however, it’s on my other machine and with their non-appearance in last year’s draft I wasn’t able to lift it from the old blog. I’ll try and get it sorted this week.

  4. 1sthill

    Rob, I agree with your reasoning Carolina drafting Luck, new regime’s usually want to get thier franchise QB if they feel he is not already on thier team. Which is why I think this year coach Carrol gets his guy in the 1st round in the next draft. I’m on board with taking Locker no matter what our draft position is in the 1st round. Locker has been inconsistent, but he has the tools & intangilbes teams want in a QB.

  5. diehard82

    Rob, I like this draft more than any previous. Each pick makes good sense to me. I agree that if they can land Luck, Locker, Newton or even Mallet, that they probably should. However, I think it’s very unlikely one of them falls to us if we win the division and are drafting 21 or later. Someone will be willing to jump over us like the Jets did for Sanchize. Without a 3rd round pick next year, we’d almost have to package our 1st two picks in order to move up and I would not be in favor of that. Too many holes to fill and a fresh QB could well wind up like Stafford, oft injured. If Hasselbeck can avoid further injury and play well enough for a 7 or 8 win season, and if QB doesn’t fall into our lap, then I think we need to address two of our 4 biggest issues:

    O-line, O-line, WR and O-line.

    Spencer is FA, Locklear was all but given away before Okung went down the second time (and has played terrible), Andrews is like rental equipment and Pitts is over 30 and coming off microfracture knee surgery. I certainly wouldn’t count on him staying healthy. A dominant run-blocking left guard to pair with Okung, like Miami’s Orlando Franklin would suit me fine in the 2nd round. Perhaps a solid right tackle in the 1st if one falls to us. Hopefully Unger plugs back in at right guard next year and you have the makings of a solid and young O-line.

    • Rob

      I can see where you’re coming from, diehard. I’m not sure there’s a right tackle that would warrant such a high pick this year. Castonzo and Sherrod for me are better suited to the left. Carimi is a solid projection at RT but I have him as a reach in R1 for a good team picking in the 20s – might be a luxury for Seattle. There could be some depth and value in the rounds 2-4 at tackle. Joseph Barksdale is one to look at in the mid rounds who could do a job at RT. I’ve mentioned James Carpenter as someone I think who has some potential. Demarcus Love falls into the 2-3 round range. Nate Solder is a LT.

      If Seattle won the NFC West and picked in the 20’s I’d be half tempted to suggest, rather than RT, they’d be better going guard. If they are moving to a man scheme – Mike Pouncey is starting to look more and more like his brother. I’m a big fan of Rodney Hudson if they stick with the ZBS. They might be better options than RT. However – I still have a hard time advocating drafting G’s and RT’s that early when the team has such an obvious need at QB. I would also stress how the line has performed at times this year – particularly when there’s been some consistency in personnel. With Okung, Hasselbeck was untouched against a fine Chicago pass rush. The line did very well against the 49ers, Chargers, Broncos but struggled agains St. Louis, Arizona and Oakland. I would even say they performed well in pass pro against the Giants and the run barely had a chance because they went 21-0 ahead immediately.

      If they weren’t able to get at the QBs in R1 – then I think they just have to go BPA. There’s depth at DL, CB and WR. It might be that BPA is a RT or OG on their board in that situation. But that’s how I’d play it, although QB is still by far the biggest need and Seattle would have to win the NFC West in this situation – something that looks unlikely based on the last two weeks.

  6. Matt

    C’mon Rob! You should know we need another safety in round 1!

    Great mock per usual. I don’t think you get enough credit for your insight and information regarding the draft. I really think the Hawks will be picking top 15 in 2011.

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