I posted my first horizontal board in mid-November and since then, the depth of the class has been decimated by transfers and players opting not to declare.
For example, I had 21 quarterbacks graded in November. That’s down to 13 with the likes of Devin Leary transferring to Kentucky to replace Will Levis, Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix opting to return to the PAC-12 and Spencer Rattler deciding that a red-hot end to the 2022 season was tempting enough to return to South Carolina.
This stretches to other positions too and it’s had a big impact on the 2023 draft.
The depth isn’t as good — creating a ‘double whammy’ effect where it’s not a thick class but it also lacks quality in round one.
Quite early in the process we identified that this wasn’t going to be a year with loads of legit blue-chip players. By that I mean players who would go in the top-10 ‘most years’. Even the bigger name defenders — Will Anderson and Jalen Carter — would typically be taken in the #5-10 range. Instead they’re almost certain to go in the top five.
As a consequence everyone’s going to get a bump. We’re going to see players with second round grades taken in the top-20. That won’t just be on my horizontal board, that’ll be in the league too. The second round is going to be littered with players who will receive third or even fourth round grades by some teams.
By the time you get to day three, the options are going to be sparse. A year ago you could see what a thick draft it was, stretching deep into day three. That will not be the case this year at all.
I don’t know how the league will approach this. It could mean moves in the veteran trade market before the draft, with teams willing to part with fifth and sixth rounders to rent veterans and fill holes.
We also might not see a lot of pick-hording for the later rounds by teams.
Anyone looking to trade down is more likely to want 2024 stock and unless a team is trading way up for a quarterback, they’re not typically inclined to cough up future picks.
I think we could also see some big veteran trades again this year. In 2022 we saw Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill moved before the draft, then A.J. Brown and Hollywood Brown were dealt during the first frame. The value in the 20’s and 30’s is going to be fairly mediocre and we might see some deals once again.
This probably doesn’t sound like great news for the Seahawks — with picks #20, #38 and #53 following the fifth pick overall. I wouldn’t worry too much about it because there are options that make sense for Seattle and you can build a board of players you like. The simple fact is when you have so many high picks — you’ll almost always come out of a class thinking, ‘that’s a really nice haul’. If the Seahawks didn’t have Denver’s picks and simply owned #20 and #53 — we’d be having a very different conversation. It would be quite challenging for this team to take a step forward.
The positive news for this class is it’s a far better QB group at the top end than a year ago and there’s decent defensive line depth in the top-50.
I want to continue along this strand but enough talking for now, here’s the actual board (click to enlarge):
As you can see there are a lot of players I haven’t watched and, as always, the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl will highlight prospects to check out. I think, however, this is a reasonable reflection of what this class is — even if you disagree over certain individual grades.
The first thing I want to talk about is overrated players.
There are many.
Regulars will know I’ve struggled with Clemson pass rusher Myles Murphy and have put him in round two, a slight relegation from my fringe first round grade last time. There’s simply not enough on tape to warrant a higher grade. If it wasn’t for the well known physical tools that he’ll show-off at the combine, he’d be even lower. He gets a round two grade purely due to physical upside. Most mocks will happily place him in the top-10 and call him a home-run pick. To me, that isn’t the case at all. I thought his Notre Dame tape was really concerning (and indicative of the issues he might face at the next level against physical trench opponents) and his 10% pressure rate in 2022 is a red flag — especially with his athletic talent and playing on such a loaded Clemson D-line.
Peter Skoronski is another player you often see mocked in the top-10. On tape I see a lineman with short arms who struggles handling the edge. He can be over-powered and driven backwards. I like his footwork at times and he has some athletic qualities, as you’d expect from a former four-star recruit. Even then, he’ll get into position and be driven backwards and end up hugging defenders to survive — risking a holding call. He rarely re-sets his hands to regain leverage and control. He can’t extend his arms and play inside-out with a sound kick-slide like a natural tackle.
As such, Skoronski will need to kick inside to guard. I’m not all that convinced he’ll fair any better in the leverage battle there and I’m worried about his hand-placement and lack of power. It’s very hard to project him as much more than a mid-rounder until we see proper testing results. If he shows to have great athletic upside, I’m happy to move him up a round.
Broderick Jones is in a similar boat. Does he have the size and length to play tackle? I suspect not. There’s an even bigger flaw I see with him on tape though. He dips his head all the time as he makes contact with the defender. Until he rectifies this, pro-pass rushers will just swim by him or rip down and use his forward momentum against him. You can’t re-adjust your hands or counter if you’re looking at your opponents’ shoes.
I remember watching Isaiah Wynn at Georgia and he was just so in control of his technique at tackle despite having guard size — so it was easy to project how he could handle the next level. When I watch Jones I just feel like he needs a lot of work. Again — if he blows up the combine I’ll review the grade and adjust because when your physical upside is high — it’s easier to make technical adjustments and improve on the fly. Traits help during growing pains.
Paris Johnson Jr looks like a fairly standard college tackle to me. Unexciting. I don’t see a dominating left tackle destined to come in and take the league by storm. I prefer Ohio State’s other tackle — Dawand Jones — who is a hulking, enormous blocker with great feet and he could easily be one of the gems of this draft. Darnell Wright shut-down Will Anderson for Tennessee and likewise is a superior player in my opinion.
Kelee Ringo has great size and speed but just gets beat too often to deserve a higher grade than round two. He will need the right coaching at the next level or he could end up being nothing more than a pretty-looking liability.
Bryan Bresee has rare quickness for his size but he’s simply missed too many games in his college career, had a lot of different injury issues and his play is far too inconsistent. I’m also wary that he looks like he has short arms — a problem at defensive tackle (and an issue that could also temper Mazi Smith’s stock — although he’s a far more consistent player).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba lacks the pure speed to feel excited about his next-level potential and a year out with a hamstring injury doesn’t help either. He’s basically a #3 in the NFL. How early are you prepared to take that if he’s not running a great time at 200lbs? Golden Tate ran a 4.42 at 199lbs, won the Biletnikoff Award in his last season at Notre Dame and still lasted to pick #60. Smith-Njigba only ran a 4.64 at SPARQ at the same weight he’s listed at now.
Isaiah Foskey is often mocked in round one but what are his measurables? Is he quick and twitchy enough to be a true edge threat? Does he have the length? He had 11 sacks in 2022 which is decent but he only had a pressure percentage of 9.9%. That’s a worry, especially compared to other players such as Laiatu Latu (22.6%), Tyree Wilson (16.7%) and Andre Carter (15.7%).
O’Cyrus Torrence had a good season for Florida but talk of him in round one doesn’t make much sense. He’s a pure guard who will not test well at the combine. He has a fairly sloppy frame and doesn’t appear to have much athletic upside. In certain schemes that call for size and power up front, he will carry some appeal. I just don’t see a player who typically goes in the top-50. Damien Lewis was a better athlete as a pure guard and had better tape and he lasted to round three. When you watch tape, you also see Torrence benefitted from a lot of double-teams with the right tackle. I’m not against drafting him but I think a reality check is required on his stock.
Siaki Ika seems to be everyone’s favourite player on Twitter. I’ve watched games where he flashes impressive quickness for his size, he’s bursting into the backfield and providing a surprising level of pass-rush threat. However — is that likely to translate at 358lbs to the NFL? And if you’re drafting a player of that size — he has to hold up against the run. I was really surprised by how bad Ika’s run defending is at times. If he can’t anchor as a nose and just absorb blocks, what’s he going to do for you? His effort is far too inconsistent and while there’s some athletic potential there — he’s not the kind of plug-in-and-play nose tackle some people think.
Then there are players who are underrated but are finally starting to get some recognition in the media.
Calijah Kancey is the closest thing to Aaron Donald since the man himself. He will light up the combine and have people rushing to the tape — with a hype train starting to build when his numbers pretty much match everything Donald did in his testing session. He had the top pass-rushing grade in college football per PFF (92.4) and the only thing letting him down is size. A good team will take him to be part of a deep rotation, not an every down grinder. He could be a sack-artist in that role.
Keion White just got better and better as the 2022 season went on. By the end he was blowing up plays, wreaking havoc and looking like the real deal. I’ve never seen a 285lbs defender cover a wheel-route before. White doesn’t just do it — he ran step-for-step with players like Kenny McIntosh. There are no questions about his conditioning or attitude (unlike Jalen Carter), his motor is relentless and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s the player who gets into the league and becomes a big time disruptor with his size and ability to play different spots on the line. His pass-rush win rate was 19.9% in 2022 — a fantastic number given he’s not an edge.
Drew Sanders is the kind of forward-facing, aggressive linebacker Seattle badly lacks. His ability to fly to the football at 6-5 and 230lbs is impressive. He can easily stick on another 10lbs. It’s weird that in an era where Micah Parsons is such a dynamic force — Sanders hasn’t gained mass publicity. He isn’t as twitchy as Parsons but he showed in his one year at Arkansas that he can work the edge to the tune of 9.5 sacks, while predominantly playing as an orthodox middle linebacker. Sanders provides so much juice to a defense with his hitting, heat-seeking missile style and the way he covers ground hints at a top-combine display.
This is a class with four really good quarterbacks at the top of the board. The mainstream media is racing to criticise them but all have high upside and are worth taking a chance on to be a long-term franchise starter. Again — the top QB’s in the NFL currently all entered the league with flaws (with the exception of Joe Burrow, who was a one-year wonder). It’s rare to have four players like this in one class — three of which carry prototype size, arm strength and plus athleticism.
There’s great depth at running back and a lot of edge options. I think the running back group will provide more predictable production — there are some excellent players here. At defensive end there’s a lot of upside types who are a bit boom or bust. Even so, the chances are a couple of the edge defenders in this class will turn out to be quality players.
The depth at linebacker is poor, ditto at safety. It’s also a top-heavy class at tight end.
There are a few players on the new horizontal board that I haven’t touched on before and I want to get into.
I was really impressed by Ole Miss left guard Nick Broeker. I’ve not seen a guard who can pivot and change direction in space like he does. His movement skills are fairly remarkable for his size (6-5, 315lbs) and the way he gets out and pulls is top notch. Ole Miss used him a lot to get on the move, reach to the second level and find targets.
He’s a former four-star prospect and he previously played left tackle. He was kicked inside due to sub-33 inch arms which will be an issue for some teams — including potentially Seattle. That said, while I was watching him I just kept thinking — this is the type of guy who works at the next level.
It’s not just his clear athleticism and movement. Broeker has the ability to extend his arms and hold position. He can create subtle running lanes by turning a defender to create an opening. He recovers well — with evidence on tape of a defender getting the initial jolt in with a violent punch to his chest — yet he sticks in there, battles and regains leverage and control.
Nobody’s going to call him a powerhouse who drives people off the ball but I did see some push in the running game and on short-yardage situations I thought he did well. He definitely plays with an edge and will always go and find someone to hit. He had impressive reps against Alabama and Auburn and didn’t look out of place.
There are zero durability concerns — he didn’t miss a single game in college.
I’m eager to see how he gets on at the Senior Bowl. I especially want to see if the recovery skills translate to 1v1’s (which are always weighted in favour of the defender). Can he handle power and anchor down? Will he be able to reset his hands and stick without being able to play in a phone booth?
I really liked his tape and could well imagine a kick inside to center as a possibility. He has the quickness and agility to fit in Seattle’s blocking scheme and they do like tackle converts. I think there are some similarities to Austin Corbett, who played for the Rams in this system.
So far, Broeker’s the one big-school guard other that Steve Avila that really got me going since Cooper Beebe opted not to turn pro.
Two smaller school players also really caught me eye on the O-line. Nick Saldiveri is another tackle convert who played right guard in 2022 and his combination of size, aggression and athleticism was incredibly impressive. I watched him after Jim Nagy highlighted him during our conversation and came away imagining him playing for Seattle. Likewise Cody Mauch is just a classic, old-school offensive lineman — all fire and brimstone, bringing it every single down. Very active, loving what he’s doing, getting up to the second level. Aggressive, tenacious. His tape hints at athletic quality so let’s see how he tests.
A lot of people want the Seahawks to go after the big name offensive linemen but I’d be content checking on the Senior Bowl and combine performances of the names above and waiting until the middle rounds for one of these guys.
I absolutely loved watching Tulane running back Tyjae Spears. He’s only 5-10 and 195lbs so the chances are he won’t be on Seattle’s radar. However — what a combination of speed, suddenness and electricity. He’s powerful and a true X-factor playmaker. He has great contact balance to break through tackles and stay on his feet. He’s incredibly shifty when assessing how to attack, then he can explode through openings to create big plays. He’s patient at the line to let blocks develop and then able to make people miss at the second level. As a pass-catcher in the open-field he’s a huge weapon. He runs good routes and has excellent hands for a running back. Despite his lack of size he’s proportionally thick and capable of playing a feature role. I think he can start in the NFL and is one of the better players in the draft. He is a fantastic talent.
Keep an eye on Andrei Iosivas during the Senior Bowl too. He has a long torso with exceptional agility and speed. He can contort his body in the air to adjust to the football and he catches the ball away from his body superbly. I’m looking forward to seeing how he handles 1v1 duties in the receiver drills. He could be a standout. Jonathan Mingo has also been a blog favourite for some time and his size, quickness, soft-hands and experience playing outside or as a big-slot could have real appeal for a team like Seattle.
Final thoughts
The one thing a board like this does is help you set out a realistic plan. It’s very easy to just say, ‘draft this position at #5, get O-line at #20’. You see that kind of thing all the time. It doesn’t work like that. You need to review what’s actually available.
Here’s how I would break this down for the Seahawks.
At #5 they’ll have an enticing option because one of the top four quarterbacks or one of the top-two defensive linemen are guaranteed to be available. For all the talk of trading down — if you do this, you’ll likely move into an area where the value is poor unless you’re willing to consider drafting Bijan Robinson with your top pick.
Thus, trading down only makes sense if you’re essentially writing off this draft and trying to get stock for next year. I am not convinced, at #5, the Seahawks will get the kind of offer that would make this attractive. Anyone wanting to move up for a QB is likely to want to get ahead of them, rather than make a deal with Seattle. As such, Arizona at #3 are probably going to get the calls John Schneider wanted to receive to make moving down a serious consideration.
At #20 you will be able to draft a good defensive player you feel comfortable with. This is a good area to select a high-upside defender. If you did take a quarterback at #5 — you can still add young talent to your defense in round one. You won’t miss out.
In round two there are going to be good skill players available but the defensive talent pool will also remain strong at #38 — although by this point you’ll be rolling the dice on potential. I wouldn’t rule out BPA being a running back, tight end or receiver though and drafting for talent worked a year ago.
Although tight end isn’t an immediate need — just keep the names of Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft in mind. They are four of the best players in the draft. Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant are out of contract next year and Will Dissly has just picked up another injury. If they really are prepared to think BPA — a tight end being taken between #20-40 could be the 2023 version of the Ken Walker pick. That worked out alright in the end.
By the time you get to #53 — defensive end might still provide some options but that could be the point where you consider options on the offensive line.
#5 — Quarterback and D-line options are clear
#20 — Defensive options will remain attractive
#38 — Skill players could provide value, plus boom-or-bust defenders
#53 — Could be an area where you think about interior O-line
I will update the horizontal board after the Senior Bowl.
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Hey Rob,
Glad to see you liked Spears – I have him inside the top 5-6 RBs and could go higher post-combine. Probably the most fun RB tape to watch this year. As you say he’s probably off Seattle’s radar due to size (Roschon Johnson in the 3rd or 4th would be a Seahawky pick) but they could definitely use Spears as a shifty, pass-catching type to upgrade that RB2 spot.
Wondering if you’ve had a chance to look at WR Michael Wilson out of Stanford? Hasn’t played a lot due to injuries but has excellent size at 6’2” 209, runs excellent routes, good hands and appears to be a high character type. We’ve seen Seattle tap the Stanford pipeline a few times, and they’ve shown an affinity for team captains in the past. Wouldn’t be surprised if he was on Seattle’s radar on day 3.
Long time reader, first time posting…
Absolutely love your work… I visit daily just hoping to see what’s new.
Using purely your board… my ideal draft would be (with assumption that all players will fall within the round you have them placed.
#5: QB (Levis or Richardson)
#20: DL (either Kancey or White)
#37: S (Skinner)
#52: TE (Kincaid or Kraft)
#83: WR (Rice)
#120: LB (To’oto’o)
#148: iOL ()
#151: DL (Stills)
#184: DL (Young)
Center?
#5: Makes sense. I don’t mind Tyree Wilson but Keion White seems to offer better athleticism and fit in the defense. Plus it seems like he hasn’t caught on yet with the rest of the national media.
#20: Yup. Dynamic and explosive. Good spot to go for upside. Man…tough to choose between Sanders or White. Might be the case here.
#37: I do wonder if they pull the trigger on a safety then what is in the plans for Jamal Adams? You might have to pull the trigger on the TE or WR here for value. Love Skinner though.
Linger long time, post when I feel like it… Rob is the only person that keeps me interested in the Seahawks off season…
As Rob’s horizontal board develops I can see that the options of drafting a quarterback we can all believe in at #5 is, dwindling. Options I would prefer, Kancey in particular, will not be available with the native #20 first round pick. Why would we not consider going all in for Will Levis this year? Trade #5, #20 and a 2nd round pick to Chicago and GET OUR GUY!
Any of the WR or RB that you’ve watched have additional appeal as a P/K returner?
Been a while since we’ve had electricity in the return game.
Think they’ve found the answer there in Godwin Igwebuike
Hope so – love this guy. Would like to see him also add value a punt returner as well as KR.
Deuce Vaughn from Kansas State is a must have “ gadget” player from this draft.
I was really impressed by him after watching some highlights. When I see him play I think of Darren Sproles and Tarik Cohen. Both really small guys but super fast. I’d love to see the Hawks take him , he could serve as both punt and kick returner.
Tank Dell out of Houston is the guy on my draft wishlist. He would make a fantastic WR3/PR.
Bloody hell — DTR is 6-1, 191lbs at the Shrine Bowl
UCLA listed him at 205lbs
Guess he didn’t drink enough gallons of water before it started
DTR would have needed a little less than 2 gallons to match his listed weight. That’s hard to do without peeing.
I gained 10 lbs. on a 90-minute bus ride for my wrestling team, as a freshman, to take a forfeit.
It’s all about bananas.
What if that was his weight after 2 gallons?
Thank you Rob. I updated your page several times today hoping for your new board. A great year to take a QB of the future with Denver’s pick. But what’s the likelihood of Kancey at 5?
Kancey a reach at #5. Need a QB or trade back there.
#5 is a bit rich for me
I love Kancey and the comparisons physically to Aaron Donald stand up
But the chances of him being Donald are remote. Two players like that, however much they compare physically, would be staggering. It’d be like two Tom Brady’s happening in a 10 year window.
So however much I like him, I don’t think you can launch phase two of a rebuild banking on him to be Donald. As such, you have to wait and see if he’s available later. Even then, I’m not sure he fits this scheme and his best bet is to land in a rotation like Philly’s
This is amazing work. I’m starting to think that the Seahawks might tap into one of the strengths of this class, the TE group. Anyone of these 4 guys could have been TE1 in previous drafts.
I think they do and I think they will do it early. The WR class is pretty weak overall.
TE1 could be our WR3
Yeah, big changes since the last – and likely big changes ahead after the All Star games and combine. Right now, I’m envisioning BPA could possibly have the Hawks taking two offensive players in the first round and watching the Twitterverse absolutely melt down. 🙂
Levis and Bijan? Richardson and Mayer? Trading back a bit and taking Mayer and Flowers? It could happen.
A while back, Calijah Kancey and Keion White were looking like they could be steals in the 2nd or 3rd. At the rate they are catching hype and how they are likely to test at the combine, they could both go in the top half of the first.
There’s definitely precedence for White climbing up to the top half.
Thin dline class. Probably going to be a superb athlete.
After watching a few games of the following: Carter, tyree wilson, Murphy I’m fully at the point that those names are getting the rub simply because the bigger names in the draft game haven’t started doing their job yet and won’t come off those names.
I literally do not see a single thing those guys do better than White.
Kancey as well. Some team is not going to be hung up on Seattle’s arm length issue and find awesome value in him.
Great stuff Rob! Thanks for doing this as it makes knowing what players to check out much easier.
Hey Rob, any thoughts on Kobie Turner? I see Ojomo and Coburn got some love, wondering if you had a chance to check him out, and if so, what you thought?
Also wondering about Merriweather and Joiner at Safety.
Given how thin the draft is as you said, I assume these guys have a shot at Day 3 if nothing else.
Thanks for doing the research and offering an unbiased perspective. Go Hawks!!
Hey Rob, have you seen much of Karl Brooks out of Bowling Green? I see you have him a day 3 pick. He’s been getting a bit of buzz lately and appears to be exactly the type of player Seattle needs, any chance you see him moving up into day 2?
He would need to test well
I really don’t see Schneider trading out of either 5 or 20. The man has been waiting for this situation for a very long time. In all the more recent interviews he consistently speaks about being patient, not reaching and drafting for talent, not position. He continuously states that that was the magic formula for last years draft.
It’s the one reason I’m at ease this year. I’m excited for their selections, without the usual dread of the pending reach.
Make me very happy
For so long, the most dreaded statement made each year on Day One was, “With the 2Oish pick in the 20** draft the Seattle Seahawks select Aye Reech from Does It Matter University.”
Awesome work, Rob.
Someone I saw on YouTube brought up a really interesting point. Anyone trading up into the early first round for anything other than a quarterback is probably going to get bad value. It’s simple. You are bidding against teams that are trying to get a quarterback so the price is very high. I doubt anyone will do it.
What about Bijan Robinson at 5?
If he doesn’t get injured like Saquon and is the next great RB…
If we thought we were getting dominance from the RB position like that.
I would want the Hawks to consider it
Absolutely not at 5. To have that valuable of a pick and to use it after getting Walker last year? I might break my tv.
20, I wouldn’t break my tv but still wouldn’t be happy.
When a franchise RB costs 10 mill/yr, a franchise WR costs 20 mill, a franchise QB 50 mill….. It’s similar to drafting a relief pitcher in the first round of baseball. There’s better value in other positions in the top 5.
PFF says you get up to 3 times the value for an early 1st QB…
Nice to see Jaxson Kirkland make the board. After highlighting the low number of sacks for UW I was hoping he would get a mention. Speaking of converted tackles, this guy might make a good center. As an UDFA there is little risk.
Really appreciate the last part of your article where you sorta lay out the tranches of talent and indicate what would be most likely.
I could easily see the hawks FO doing similar, planning out and seeing what is most likely and having plan a b c for what they expect.
From PFF’s buyer beware list:
QB GENO SMITH, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The season Smith just had was remarkable. He passed for over 4,500 yards and threw 32 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions. It was most notable because of just how far it exceeded expectations, but it’s impossible to miss how far it fell away as the season wore on.
Up to Week 8, Smith boasted the No. 2 PFF grade (88.4), trailing only Bills QB Josh Allen. From that point on, he ranked 25th (67.0) with numbers that looked a lot more like his previous baseline. Smith clearly demonstrated that he could be a capable starter, but he also tied for the league lead in turnover-worthy plays over the regular season and may not be worth a massive contract extension.
From: Geno Smith’s Agent
To: Pete Carroll
Re: Geno Smith
Pete,
Thought I’d send along a few quotes, courtesy of PFF regarding Geno:
QB GENO SMITH, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Smith…was remarkable, Passed… touchdowns. Most notable. Exceeded expectations. No. 2 PFF grade. Worthy. Massive contract extension.
I’m waiting by the phone. Call me.
😀
Pete promptly drags and drops it into the spam folder.
Just for comparison sizewise:
Zay Flowers.., 5092, 182, 29.25 arm, 9 1/8 hand, 72.75 wing
Tyler Lockett, 5097, 182, 30.00 arm, 8 3/8 hand, 70.75 wing
Also not a surprise:
This is what Dee Eskridge was SUPPOSED to be. Disappointing that we are looking at #3 receivers again only 2 years later.
Instead of a starting, 2 time All-Pro Center….
Hey Rob, I’m curious if you’ve had any impressions of Ivan Pace out of Cincinnati this year? When I sort college players by TFL on sports reference this year he comes up third with 20.5. Haven’t seen him listed on any of the draft sites.
Smaller player, active but plays in a way he won’t be able to at the next level. They just let him loose
Maybe it’s a case of the college website listing a player at over their size, but he’s listed at 6’0″ 239. Bobby Wagner is 6’0″ 241. I can understand if he needs some serious training. Just seems like there isn’t another player in the class with a combination of total tackles, TFL, and sacks
But that’s the thing. He was basically used to get into the backfield on every snap. He was just always in attack mode, move forward. You can’t just do that at the next level. So the numbers are slightly manufactured.
To me he looked about 5-11 and squatty. Not a typical linebacker body
I highly doubt Pace is that size.
Just the old eyeball test vs. Wagner as a rookie I’m not seeing guys 2 lbs away. Pace looks like someone I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes in more like 227.
💯
Thank you for your work Rob. I would call it a good first round if we get a QB with pick 5 and one of White, Kancey and Sanders with pick 20. If they are all gone, I could live with a TE or a WR, or perhaps even a CB. I hope we don’t reach for another edge, we can get one later. I find it positive that we don’t have a clear cut round one guy for the IOL but the depth for the later rounds is good. I think we would also do fine spending just a 4th rounder for a LB.
I’m curious how Bryce Young’s arm strength compares to that of a prime Drew Brees? Is it fair to say they are both on the same level of being good, but not great?
And I wonder if Young can bulk up as he ages to around 205-210 where Brees was in his prime?
Awesome work Rob, your big boards have been single-handedly propping up my dynasty team so I’m always excited to see them.
Apologies if you’ve gone over him before, but I’m curious about your thoughts on Darnell Washington. To my amateur eye he seems like a fantastic fit for the jumbo sets Waldron likes to run, in that he’s a great blocker who can leak out on play action.
Is it a case of you thinking that blocking won’t look as good at the next level and that he lacks athleticism?
I just think his main asset is size. Don’t see a particularly dynamic receiver at all. So if you bring him in he might just be mostly a blocking TE
Great work! I guess there’s a chance the order of the QBs doesn’t go as predicted for a team and a guy they rank highly is there at 5. Especially if they tried to move to #3 but couldn’t swallow the bitter asking price. I definitely prefer we get our own QB, but maybe it’s Young and a team rly loves him. But the offer would need to include future first from a team that shows promise to be bad.
Why I wouldn’t trade for a future first a short essay:
Looked at the teams after us that well and truly need a qb.
Raiders. Record 6-11
Atlanta (?). Record 7-10
Carolina. Record 7-10
Tennessee. Record 7-10
Jets. Record 7-10
Washington. Record 8-8-1
Raiders and Atlanta I could see being the same, faltering, or being better.
Carolina and Tennessee based on both current divisions and that mediocre to truly bad (Malik Willis anyone,) qb play would legitimately be improved by no other addition other than slightly better qb play.
Jets. They have a truly loaded roster. They are within inches of being a blend of the ’11-’12 seahawks. Not so-so qb play. But truly awful. If they had a pulse at qb they would be improved greatly.
Washington Commanders. That Record against a rolling eagles, Dallas, and a much improved giants?
I’m not against future first per se. You never know what happens. Just future casting it looks like all those teams would see at least a one game improvement with a better qb and turn that pick into the 14-18 range. Yet again taking Seattle out of top talent and a future qb.
Good point. Reasonable chance these rookie QBs could improve those teams in year one. I’d personally rather take a shot on any of the QBs.
The big cluster of teams in that 7-10 to 9-8 range seems so weird this year. None of them looked that good to me, they just aren’t dumpster fires. I guess that’s all it took to be around .500 this year. Crazy where we would be picking if we went 7-10. Cursed by an easy schedule.
That last weekend was wild.
5 and 20 is still a great chance to improve but damn that was a helluva swing from potentially #3 and as low as #12.
I think if we don’t take a QB that I’d trade with the Raiders. Their schedule next year is tougher than this year and I think any QB they take will be a drop off from Carr in year 1. I’m assuming we’d get 7, 39 and next years first. If i’m wrong and we would get less, then I agree with you.
I doubt you’re going to get that
Well you’re going to love this. The time I did a mock draft w/o letting the Bears trade down, their #1 pick was…..(drum roll)…
Paris Johnson Jr.
Literally left the site after that one.
PFN if you’re wondering which site
Last time I ran a mock on PFN, the Bears took Kaylee Ringo with the #1 overall pick. No QBs were taken until I got to pick for Seattle at #5.
It is no fun if the mock is nowhere close to being realistic.
Hey, I just wanted to throw out a weird trade idea I had the other day since Chicago has $92 Million in cap
space.
Chicago gets Safety, Jamal Adams, and Seattle’s 2023 4th-round draft pick (123).
Seattle gets Piece of mind.
I believe Cleveland did something like this a few years ago.
Just noticed how I spelled “Piece of mind” and concluded that I have been listening to too much Iron Maiden, lately.
If I did that, I’d be running to the hills.
I’d be running for my life.
There are no hills in Florida. Seriously, the highest point is about 500′ above sea level.
I will be in Alabama on Tuesday.
LOL. When I was 11 my cousins from Iowa came to visit Seattle for the first time. They had no idea a city could be built on such tall, steep hills.
They nearly fainted when we drove up to Paradise. They kept peering over the ledge as we drove up, asking, “Is this safe?”
Sounds like you are a real Trooper Roy.
Never too much Maiden. Got a Boomer McBrain drum stick at Long Beach that tour.
Is “too much Iron Maiden” even possible? I think not. 🤘
Points for creative thinking.
But there is no practical benefit to be had. The Seahawks would achieve the same result by just cutting him.
And his health status makes him untradable.
Deep down I already knew it was that bad.
I guess I was thinking of the scene in the movie “Moneyball” between Billy Beane and David Justice.
BILLY
Is there a problem?
JUSTICE
It’s okay, man. I know your routine. It’s
a patter, it’s rap, it’s for effect.
That’s okay. But it’s for them, it’s not
for me.
BILLY
You’re special?
JUSTICE
You’re paying me 7 million bucks so I
guess I am a little.
BILLY
As a matter of fact I’m not paying you 7
million bucks, David. The Yankees are
paying half your salary. That’s what the
New York Yankees think of you.
More like
https://youtu.be/fTjhHrcyiQI
Yup.
Damn! I missed it this year. It’s only a few miles from my house. I saw Jim Nagy down there with some of the EXOS players. The Senior Bowl is already here in Pensacola.
https://weartv.com/sports/local-sports/senior-bowl-uwf-players-gather-to-host-youth-clinic
This is fantastic work, Rob. Thanks so much for keeping up with all of this.
Hi Rob, I’m curious why you have the Purdue quarterback, O’Connell ranked so low. He has pro frame, two years experience leading the Boilermakers to more success than normal, and is as pro ready as any of the other quarterbacks, imho. Thanks!
Just my personal view
Seen very little from him to be excited about
Thanks Rob, I’ll be curious to read the reports from the Shrine game.
It is especially impressive to make the distinctions between a 4th and 5th round grade. My operating theory is that this is done with a pair of tweezers, a nose hair, and a magnifying glass.
I am a broken record: i watch Daiyan Henly and I see a Cam Chancellor type. Agreesive.nose for the ball. Fast. Former WR.
This could really shake things up at the 2nd overall pick.
What if Ryans wants to spend it on defense? Either roll with Mills one more season, or sign a FA like Carr or JimmyG, or even Geno for that matter. Or trade back up from 12 to get one of the remaining big 4.
I remember Rob saying early on that it wasn’t a given Houston would take a QB with the then first overall pick.
Anderson is ready to be your Bosa Ryans. Leave those QBs for the Seahawks man.
With pick 5, why does no one consider Anderson from Alabama.
If any team elects to move up to the top 4 and get a QB, then only one pick of the defensive guys. Jalen goes to whoever and we get Anderson. That would be Great pick at 5 but no one suggests it. Why?
Anderson has been discussed on every blog thread here for months. As in Hawks either get one of the top 4 QB’s at 5 OR they can one of the top 2 D guys (Carter or Anderson).
Most think AZ takes him at #3…
Anderson is one of the players we’ve talked about the most
I’d take him a thousand times over instead of Carter if both were there at #5.
We don’t talk about Anderson unless Daniel Jeremiah does. 😅
What a tremendous write up!! The amount of work it takes to build a board like that is mind boggling. Seahawks fans are lucky to have you Rob
Well said. As always, your efforts are greatly appreciated Rob. You’ve given me a lot of reasons to care about and pay attention to the draft the last number of years.
Thanks guys
Murphy is absolutely right. I tried to do this many years ago. It leads to madness.
How are you doing?
Kudos to the Shrine Bowl
As a media member you can apply for access to the coaching tape from every practise
I’ve just downloaded every 1v1 OL/DL rep from today using the provided app
This would be a god-send if the Senior Bowl did it
Will be interested to hear what you pick up from Jordan McFadden reps. Though he measured with 34 inch arms I still see him as a candidate to move inside. He did though weigh under 300lbs, which was a bit surprising. Center might be his best position? Did the Shrine Bowl test him at Center?
I watched the East 1v1’s and he didn’t seem to take any reps
And as much as this is a good idea — all of the west team 1v1’s are useless because they’ve cut the clips too short so you never see the end of the rep
These are the players who flashed for me:
JUICE SCRUGGS OL
BJ THOMPSON EDGE
MALAESALA AUMAVAE-LAULU OL
OCHAUN MATHIS DL
And Dante Stills absolutely nailed his two reps — one he drove the center right into the QB and on another he just danced around an overmatched guard
I’ll see what I can do.
Wondering if you ever brought up this topic with Jim Nagy. IIRC, his first year all the 1v1s were published on YouTube even. Then no more.
Rob,
Apologies if I’m putting words in your mouth, but should we take this board to mean you’re warming up to the possibility of Tyree Wilson at 5? (Again, apologies if my memory is incorrect, but I was under the impression you weren’t particularly enthused about him there a few weeks back?)
And as always, a big thank you for everything that you do
My position on Wilson is that he has a freakish, impressive frame and that is very intriguing. But unless he has an amazing combine workout and has the explosive traits and quickness to pair with the size and length, you can’t justify it at #5. They need more than just size and length out of a top-five pick. So let’s see what he does at the combine.
That 10-yard split will be very telling.
The thing I’m interested in re: Wilson is scheme fit. He seems like more of a tweener vis-a-vis a 3-4 formation. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 6’6, 275 lb OLB, and it doesn’t sound like he was ever asked to or was any good in coverage. He’s also too small to play end in a 3-4; he’d have to get up to at least 290 (QJeff is the smallest current player getting snaps at that spot, and he’s listed at 291), and I have to imagine he would not be an impact player in year 1 having to learn a new position and adjust his body to a significantly higher weight. Seems like he’d be a better fit in a 4-3 as a DE who can kick inside on passing downs a la Michael Bennett.
Rob I was wondering if you have any thoughts on Jordan McFadden as a guard prospect. 6’2 won’t make as a tackle but as a guard it might work. A 3 year starter at Clemson . 39 career starts teammates voted him a team captain. 81 inch plus wingspan. 34 arm length. And one stat I really like only 5 Penalties in 2500 snaps who doesn’t like that?
Rob, amazing work so early in the offseason! Appreciate it so much and refreshing SDB daily to feed my draft hunger, this is the best in the biz!
Thank you!
Saw this article and thought it was really good
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/geno-smith-was-good-for-seahawks-last-season-but-not-good-enough-for-huge-deal/
Interesting but the comments below were what shocked me. Almost 100% of commenters agree.
Maybe this whole “Geno deserves big money” thing is just the fetish of the vocal minority.
Wow – that was unexpected.
Definitely interesting. Especially after I saw some random poll on Twitter (from a random fan, who seems an idiot mind you) with ~70% of people saying they would roll with Geno even if we had the first pick, and therefore the pick of the litter at QB.
To me, the cap status of the team, combined with the number of glaring holes on the roster makes giving Geno 30M ish completely out of the question. I don’t even like the idea of him being a bridge QB with that kind of money. It would handcuff the roster for 2-3 years. Let him test free agency, please do not go franchise route.
If I had to guess I would say that the playoff loss to the Niners was a very rude wake-up call for all those beating the drum to re-sign Geno.
Fans saw the 2013 Seahawks roll out in Niners uniforms. The complete dominance, with a cheap rookie under center, was like a rush of smelling salts for them. And I have to hand it to this site and many others showing the real amount of cap space that will be available this year. An amount that laughs at even signing a QB for just good, not great money, and still attempt a rebuild.
It is ironic that there is also a big shift from the Jamal Adams cult to the “make the cut and be done with it” common sense approach. I have seen the comments slowly, but steadily, make the transition from believing this team is a couple of players away from contending, to acknowledging that this team is 8-10 players short of a contender. Too many holes to fill.
I’ll add as you pull back to off season moves Geno never appears anywhere for another team.
A slight worry I have is that the FO might bid against themselves either franchising him or paying bear franchise level money when it feels like a foregone conclusion that the seahawks are his only real suitors.
It helps that Pete Carroll said as much and refused to take a victory lap after a 9-8 season and a one and done playoff.
Rob:Good stuff. After the Senior Bowl we will all have a good idea of where the players really rank. Everything will be pretty much settled. Will player rankings go up or down after the Senior? Of coarse but not to the extent that will be after the dust has settled after the Senior Bowl. There will always be a player here or there at the combine that will either surprise or disappoint you. So after the Pro Bowl John Schneider, Pete Carroll and his scouting department will know just how good these players are.
“Sorry that should be.” After the Senior Bowl John Schneider and Co. will have a really good did idea where to rank these players.
Assuming factual, this metric would seem to indicate one of the metrics the Panthers will be looking at in picking a QB. Frank Teich has not had a starting QB under 6’4”. This would eliminate Young, and make Levis/Stroud questionable. Maybe they wait until the 2nd and take McKee?
https://twitter.com/theoashnfl/status/1619478534183079936?s=46&t=s4UTtCtzr9on9ysOaKNxOA
I highly doubt the Colts are going to ignore players who are 6-3 instead of 6-4 just to take Tanner McKee
I agree. For context though, Reich is with the Panthers so getting either Levi’s/Stroud would take a trade up. So bucking the “6’4” ideal” (presumed of course) would necessitate the trade up. I also just said it calls it into question is all as well, did not mean to insinuate that these guys are eliminated from their board.
Let’s also remember he’s been appointed with the owner basically stating — we’re sorting the QB situation out. So he’ll be on board with whatever they’re planning. I suspect they are going to do a Trey Lance-level trade into the top-three.
I would agree that they are the most likely to make a move up… and this would also suggest that Young is not their target, and furthers the drop for Young from the lofty Number 1 overall expectations of the Draft mainstream
Don’t be so sure Houston doesn’t draft him. Gut feeling on my part.
Rob, the work you have done over the years is simply outstanding. You are the reason i know what i know about the Seahawks and i am so appreciative of everything!!!
America is so divided right now and its super sad that this has even carried over to the fans of the Seahawks.
Because you offer different opinions you are slammed for it and that is pathetic and i am very sorry you have deal with obnoxious uneducated and classless people.
You have a LOYAL following here on SDB and while we may not always agree, we respect your opinions greatly.
You are our teacher and you offer differing viewpoints that cover both sides of the coin and that is unparalleled.
I have been following you for 12 years and there is nobody that cares about the Seahawks like you and it is nausiating to read or hear the abuse you recieve for offering a different viewpoint.
The more people that know about you, the more idiot abuse you will recieve because its simply a numbers game.
Please dont ever change and i beleive that this draft season, all your hard work is going to pay off with enormous notoriety based on what you have produced.
You will one day replace the Mel Kipers of the world as the premiere talent evaluater and become the leading authority on the NFL draft.
Nice job again Rob. What are your thoughts on Iowa LB Jack Campbell? He was a tackling machine in college and seems to have good size. You’ve given him a 4th round grade; do you see him as someone the Seahawks might look at in the middle rounds?
I think he’s too big and doesn’t have the quickness or agility to covet
Will fit some schemes but I’m not excited by him
Just curious. Let’s say that a quarterback falls to us at #5 and the Raiders and/or the Panthers come calling. What is your price?
Everything. If it’s a QB that JS likes and another team wants the slot to select him, you plant your feet and make them give you everything. If they balk, you get your guy. If they concede, you’ve potentially got the capital to add difference makers for your team.
Two 1sts to start, then go from there.
Carolina would have to sweeten the deal by quite a bit, since you are now moving two slots lower and they will most likely be picking lower than the Raiders next year.
We are talking Russell Wilson levels of theft here. The kind of draft capital that allows you to move up in 2024 to get your QB.
Probably a pipe dream, but some teams do really crazy things. Trey Lance kinds of things.
I liked that episode of Kaleidoscope where Russell Wilson and Trey Lance stole Jamal Adams’s coffee cup.
And he woulda gotten away with it if it weren’t for you meddling kids
But maybe not THE difference maker you actually want. If JS and PC’s QB is there at 5 you don’t trade.
2023 #1
2024 #1
2025 #1
2023 #2
Plus:
The Raiders have to move back to Oakland and Mark Davis has to go to a real barber for a year offering no input about “how he wants it.”.
The Panthers have to convince the Chargers to move back to San Diego and the for the Titans to sell the rights to “Oilers” back to Houston for $1 and for Houston to immediately become the Houston Oilers once again with the Earl Campbell-era unis.
And David Putney. Just because I feel like it, you pancake-eating mother ******
What are the chances CJ Stroud makes it to 5 and Vegas gives us a call to move up from 7? Maybe even including their early 2nd rounder
I’d much rather have Stroud
Pretty much zero chance Stroud lasts til 5.
If Stroud lasts to #5 you draft him
Rachel Bonetta is waving the white flag after Cynthia Frelund chose the nuclear option in the pantsuit war today.
Hahah I wondered if you’d noticed. To be fair I don’t think any winner came out of that 😀
Finally had a chance to process your updated board and compare it to your earlier one.
Usually as we go deeper into the pre draft process, your board fills up. But not this year. Not yet at least.
That’s pretty depressing given the fact that we’re flush with draft capital and the state of our roster is so dire.
Even so, I noticed you’ve keened your opinions of some potentially crucial prospects, and they’ve all trended up. That’s good news.
Still hoping athletic testing reveals some more diamonds in the rough, but even in a draft bereft of elite talent, there are opportunities for Seattle to make some foundational additions.
I am very much looking forward to your review of Shrine Bowl. If you have the time, I would welcome a video review!
Sounds like AT Perry is standing out in shrine bowl practices.
Predictions for tonight
Eagles beat 49ers
Bengals beat KC
That’s what I’m rooting for
According to Jonathan Jones, the Jets aren’t even considering Geno Smith as an option at this point.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jets-veteran-qb-search-will-start-with-these-three-names-plus-options-for-other-qb-needy-teams/
I don’t think he will, he’s going to have short arms for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a team picks him up in the 3rd based on his motor, positional flexibility, and refined pass rushing skills.
Most — if not all — NFL scouts have either played football or coached football. What are your bona fides to rank these players?
I played for the Panthers for four years
Then assisted Ron Wolf as a scouting intern
I was then the offensive coordinator for Mike Shanahan in Denver
I GM’d the Bears for a spell
Before spending a year actually making footballs in a factory
Today was a nightmare day for me. I was rooting for both the 49ers and the Bengals. I was rooting for the 49ers. Not because I like them. Because I don’t like them. Playing in a Super Bowl just plain puts wear and tare on the body. Not only that compared to the teams that didn’t make the playoffs they have one less month to recuperate. And if the 49ers won the Super Bowl many players would be looking for the big pay day instead of the ring. With that said I wanted the Bengals to win. I almost like the Bengals more than the Seahawks. The Bengals big problem is they cannot protect Joe Burrow. You give Burrow time and he WILL BURN YOU. Burrow just plain spends too much time on his back or running for his life.
I was not interesting in paying Geno, before I read today’s article. Now if the Seahawks do sign Smith(unless the contract is very team friendly) I am going to very upset. Geno Smith could very easily have had between 6-12 more ints.
With all due respect to Mike Holmgren no Seahawk head coach has had more success than Pete Carroll. Now however, I have gotten to point where I blame Carroll for all the bad decisions and give Schneider credit for all the good decisions. The defense has been horrible the last four seasons. In fact, I record the games on the DVR and then when I watch the game. I fast forward the DVR when the Seahawks are on defense. I just can’t stand watching the defense. Why put yourself through all the agony if you know what is going to happen. As much success the Seahawks have had under Carroll. Carroll has to get the blame for the poor results of the defense the last four years.
If I was Jody Allen I would do everything I could to steal Lou Anarumo away from Cincinnati. That guy KNOWS defense. There is NO SALARY cap on Coaches. Make Anarumo an offer he cannot refuse.
Lets face it. Opposing teams know how to attack the Seahawk defense. They just do. Pete Carroll’s bend but don’t break defense. Needs to be thrown in a dumpster fire.
If you have a moment, check out Rejzohn Wright, CB out of Oregon State
I havent seen him drafted too early in any mocks, may be a late CB2 option
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luypqeiKpqM
Last Chance U guy
Senior Bowl attendee
https://thedraftnetwork.com/senior-bowl-2023-rejzohn-wright-interview/
6’2″, 200
2 INT, 9 PD, also a sack, FF on his resume
Hi, Rob. Great work as always! I agreed with your recent mock draft selection of Drew Sanders with our #20 pick. Would Trenton Simpson be in consideration there? He seems to be a very good pash rusher from the LB position. Thoughts?
Trenton Simpson had a very poor 2022 season, after being asked to convert to more of a conventional linebacker. He was anonymous in most games. In 2021 he was used basically as a blitz specialist. Clemson’s answer to Jamal Adams.
He will test well and for that reason will carry some athletic potential but he should not be a consideration at all at #20