Updated mock draft: 08/30

Could Notre Dame's Michael Floyd land in Seattle?

I’ve updated the mock draft section of the blog (which can be found in the title bar at the top of the page or by clicking here). It’s only a top-15 projection at this early stage. I’ve made a few changes after watching some game tape over the last week.

I watched the Emerald Bowl between USC and Boston College largely to take a look at BC’s offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo. Originally I had him at #3 in my projection, but I’ve moved him down (for now) after watching this game. For me, he’s going to struggle with leverage at the next level because he’s just so tall (6’7″, 297lbs). He’s extremely athletic, but lacks power and drive in short yardage situations. Like most college tackles, he hasn’t got a punch of note. I’ve moved him out of the top 15 for now but we’ll see how he performs in a BC schedule that’s not overly testing.

However, I have decided to include Andrew Luck in this projection. When I went back and watched Luck, my opinion didn’t really change – I’m still more sceptical than a lot of people. Toby Gerhart had a bigger impact for Stanford than perhaps some realise and losing his 27 touchdowns could have a major impact. Gerhart’s influence significantly helped Luck in his first year starting, because the numbers weren’t great. He threw just 13 touchdowns in total and stat lines against California (33% completion rate, 157 yards, no TD’s) and Washington (seven completed passes, 103 yards, no TD’s) are distinctly poor even though Stanford scored 62 points in the two games. If Luck was just having teething problems as a starter, he has the physical and technical qualities to improve and be a top pick in the future. If he has a good year there’s a fair chance he’ll declare. That’s what I’ve represented here. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if the numbers are again a little sloppy and he stays at Stanford for another year.

In watching Luck perform against Notre Dame, I also kept an eye on receiver Michael Floyd. I took in ND vs Pittsburgh as well to get a good look at the 6’3″, 227lbs wide out. He’s better than I originally thought. I never really appreciated how quick he is given his size. There’s a health concern – he missed five games last year through injury and he needs to prove he can play a full season in 2010. When he did play, he averaged over a hundred yards per game and scored nine touchdowns. One of my issues with Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate last year was the stat-padding consistency that ND used a simple short slant. Tate and Floyd benefited from a lot of high percentage throws in short/medium range. Changes at quarterback and offensive scheme could impact Floyd in both positive and negative ways, but he’s talented enough to warrant top-15 consideration.


  1. Seth H

    while I think they should take the top talent available, Having our potential 3 starting receivers from the same school just seems..weird.

  2. Ross

    Depending on what happens this year we will see what holes the seahawks really have. The two main holes right now on paper are DE and RB and those are key positions we need to be great at. Clemons is looking pretty good but big Bryant might not work out and if he is a bust then we will need a big time pass rusher for are 1st round pick. As for RB Forsett and Leon Washington, they are a good start but we need to release Jones and draft a big physical RB next year in the third to fourth round. I think we can pick up a another CB and more depth at the tackle spot on offense and defense.

    • Rob

      The defensive line clearly is a target area and amongst Seattle’s most pressing needs alongside finding a definitive long term answer at QB and finding some playmakers. I don’t think the 2011 draft will be as rich at the position as some think though and in this projection (which is far too premature to define a proper debate) I went with a mix of BPA and position of need. Seattle has shown they want a wide out (Marshall, Jackson) who can be big, physical but also get down field and stretch things out. There are four receivers who could be first round picks next year (Green, Floyd, Baldwin and Jones) so the Seahawks will have options. Christian Ponder (QB, FSU) and Rodney Hudson (OG, FSU) are two to watch if the Seahawks are picking later than I have them here.

  3. Michael Kelly

    I would prefer DT/OT/QB/DE in a top ten pick. Historically, WRs drafted in the top ten have a very high bust rate. However, if Bryant and Clemens work out and Whitehurst looks like a long term keeper then we may be justified in taking a WR. I think this pick assumes an optimistic outlook on the Hawks future. I hope you are tight.

    Mike Kelly

  4. akki

    Considering that our major problems are getting beat at the point of attach on DL and OL, I’d also rather stick to the trenches, unless there’s a good qb available. If it’s a great year at WR at the top and there’s depth as well, then maybe it’s better to get value with a 2nd/3rd rounder. Green Bay was good at picking up 2nd and 3rd round WRs when Schneider was there.

    I still think Luck stays in school regardless of his performance. That’s just the vibe I get for the people in the area who follow Stanford, that he likes being in school and wants to get his degree. While if he has a great season there’s always the chance, I think that saying you’ll stay in school carries more weight if you’ve been a serious enough student to get into Stanford in the first place. Besides, what quarterbacks have actually left college after their sophomore or redshirt sophomore years? I can think of Michael Vick, Todd Marinovich and Tommy Maddox, and all were slammed for their immaturity, rightfully so in retrospect, in deciding to come out so early. I understand including him in the mock since everyone else does too.

    • Rob

      Hey Akki,

      I would’t completely agree that Seattle’s biggest problem is getting beat at the P.O.A. Clearly the lack of a dominant pass rusher is a concern, but many teams have the same issue and manage to create pressure. We’ll see if Seattle’s new scheme will have an impact, Chris Clemons has looked good so far so hopefully he can take that into the new season. However, DE is a key need. In this mock though, if the top guy is gone I’m not convinced you reach to fill a need with better prospects potentially available.

      The Seahawks spent a top ten pick on the offensive line. For me, you don’t spend another top pick on the line unless it’s a cant miss prospect. This looks like a wretched year for OT’s and whilst I am very positive about Rodney Hudson, he isn’t a top 15 pick.

      Is there depth at WR? I’m not sure. That’s no given just because there’s 3-4 prospects worthy of going early. The Seahawks have struggled badly the last three year because the offensive line has been over worked. Until Seattle find some weapons, guys who warrant coverage and will keep a defense honest, we’ll continue to see eight man fronts and heavy blitz packages. I think that’s why they’ve looked at Marshall and Jackson. Getting a big playmaker at WR is a huge need.

      I would tend to agree with Luck. I left him out last time. However, you never know if he has a great year. Maybe there isn’t a rookie cap next year and he takes advantage. It’s too early to tell really. If I was putting money on it, I’d say he’ll not declare in 2011 but a lot can change.

  5. Seahawks fan


    Love your site. When you have a moment, could you please update us on the future draft picks that the Seahawks have. They’ve made a lot of trades, including involving conditional picks, and it would be nice to know what draft picks they have left in the next 1-2 years.

    Thanks much!

    • Rob

      As far as I’m aware right now for 2011 Seattle has:

      1st round
      2nd round
      4th round
      Conditional 4th/5th from Baltimore (Josh Wilson)
      5th round
      6th round (Lawrence Jackson)
      Conditional 6th/7th from Cleveland (Seneca Wallace)
      7th round

      I believe that is correct, I may be wrong.

  6. Patrick

    I really like your Arizona pick and I myself think there is a great possibility it happens that way. I also agree with your pick for the Bills. I’m not sure about Jacksonville though, I sort of think if they’re picking that high Del Rio will be gone and the “new guy” will want to go QB. That will also depend on who is available though, because I think in your draft’s case none of the QBs fit. I could see them snatching A.J. Green ahead of St. Louis though. Now, as for Seattle, I’m just curious, but with Mike Williams performing better than expected do you really feel like we would use a 1st round pick on a WR? I’m not very high on anyone past Green and right now I think RB appears to be our biggest need, with perhaps RT, LG, and maybe QB close behind. I know Ingram is gone, but what about Ryan Williams at #11?

    • Rob

      I could also see Green to Jacksonville Patrick. It’s a very good shout, as is QB and I do think Del Rio will have to perform better than predicted here to remain on the team. They are a bit unpredictable though (as seen in this years draft).

      I can see the Seahawks spending a first round pick on a receiver. Firstly, there are 3-4 prospects who might warrant a very high pick. AJ Green is an exciting talent. Michael Floyd, for me, has the makings of a potential superstar. Jonathan Baldwin is a big target who makes difficult catches and can get downfield. Julio Jones has amazing talent but needs to switch on in 2010, avoid all the drops he had in ’09 and get over the mental lapses he has.

      Secondly, there’s a reason Seattle has pursued Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson. You need that threat at receiver, to keep a defense honest and take pressure away from your offensive line. The Seahawks simply do not have a star on offense, someone who forces gameplanning and specific coverage. They are desperate for that, it’s a much bigger need for me than others maybe think. Mike Williams has a lot to prove to make Seattle confident they have the position solved. Even if he has a good year and record 5-6 TD’s and 800 yards (and that will be good for a guy not in the game the past few years) the Seahawks will never compete without any true playmakers.

      I really like Ryan Williams. He’s under rated. I’m looking forward to seeing how he performs after a fantastic first year in 2009. #11? Maybe a bit high, but another big year and he’ll have first round potential.

      • CFraychineaud

        Rob, no replies on the Buy Beware, DE thread? You have a couple of comments there, but no responses…

        • Rob

          Apologies CFraychineaud, I have replied to the messages in the thread and will send you a more detailed email very soon. I am due to get married on the 11th and have had a busy work week, so I’ve been distracted over recent days. Once again I apologise for not responding sooner.

  7. HawkII

    I think your take on Adrian Clayborn is way off. If anything his speed will be the concern, but to equate off the field baggage with him is just plain wrong. Do the research on him and you will see he is a very well-spoken, humble young man whose off the field exploits are of no concern. He often does visits to kids in the hospitals at the U of IA without being asked. Hopefully this article helps shine a bit more light on his one time incident that I am sure he regrets, but seems to have been slightly justified at the time. http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/13842034/hawkeyes-clayborn-keeps-anger-opposing-offenses-in-check

    • Rob

      HawkII – I’m not the first person to express concern about Clayborn off the field. That’s a favorable article. We’ll find out if teams see character as a concern or not next year.

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