The whole point of doing these mock drafts is to create discussion points. I’m not trying to project the draft in December. That would be ridiculous. Please remember this. Please.
– I watched some of Kansas City’s game against Carolina on Sunday. As daft as it sounds for a team currently on pace for the #1 pick, they aren’t terrible. Far from it in fact. The offensive line is competitive. They have some X-factor weapons on offense. They have some key players on defense. They just don’t have a quarterback. And while the 2013 group doesn’t contain an Andrew Luck, they can still find a legitimate starter for the foreseeable future. So if KC picks first overall, they just need to identify who they prefer from Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson. The AFC West is weak enough for a bounce back year in 2013 if they can upgrade at quarterback. This has been an underwhelming year for Barkley, but how much of that is on Lane Kiffin?
– Markus Wheaton and DeAndre Hopkins are both listed in round one this week. Why? Because they’re both worthy of round one grades. Simple. While a lot of people want to concentrate on Keenan Allen (not included in the first two rounds here) and Justin Hunter (second round projection) I think Wheaton and Hopkins are the two players most likely to succeed from this receiver class. The only receiver who goes higher is Brandon Coleman. He has a much higher ceiling, but he’s likely to need a redshirt year in the NFL to max out his potential. Coleman has much more upside, but isn’t quite as polished in only his second year of college football.
– I have the Seahawks taking Kansas State linebacker Arthur Brown. Pete Carroll paid a lot of attention to Brown during his USC days and he’s a sound option to replace Leroy Hill at the WILL position. The Seahawks like to do things their own way and think outside of the box. Brown isn’t an obvious first round pick within the media, but he is a very good football player. He’s intense, he’s got a nose for the ball. He glides from sideline to sideline and he makes plays. He hasn’t shown a great deal of pass rush at Kansas State, but the Seahawks aren’t using the linebackers that much to blitz and are generally relying on a four man rush. You can see tape of Brown’s performance against Miami at the top of this piece.
– In round two Seattle gets Purdue’s Kawann Short. Although I believe finding a three-technique upgrade for Alan Branch is probably Seattle’s greatest need, I’m not totally convinced it’s a position they’ll target in round one. They may even go after Randy Starks or Sedrick Ellis in free agency. Likewise, I’m not totally convinced they’ll consider the receivers in round one either. Although I wanted to put Wheaton or Hopkins at #22, John Schneider is used to the Green Bay way of doing things. The Packers have enjoyed great success finding receivers in round two or beyond. Expect this team to go searching for value after the first round, just like they did with Golden Tate. And if Wheaton or Hopkins last that far, the Seahawks should run to the podium. The recent production by Golden Tate and Sidney Rice is also making this less of a priority.
Enjoy.
First round
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#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. And even if the value isn’t quite there, just solve this issue indefinitely. |
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#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State) The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season. |
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#3 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) The Raiders need to start drafting good football players. This will be a long rebuild. |
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#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M) Philly’s offensive line is, well, ‘offensive’. This is the starting point for a new era. |
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#5 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri) The more I watch of Sheldon Richardson, the more I’m reminded of Darnell Dockett. |
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#6 Jake Mathews (T, Texas A&M) Although he’s playing at right tackle for the Aggies, he’s good enough to move across and play the blind side. |
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#7 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M) He’s having a great year and looks the part of a NFL rusher. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC. That isn’t easy. |
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#8 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama) The complete cornerback. Milliner is vastly underrated. |
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#9 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia) All the messing around at quarterback this year cannot happen again. |
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#10 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon) He could go even higher than this if he explodes at the combine. |
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#11 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas) He looks like the kind of quarterback Chan Gailey would like to draft. He could be the best quarterback to enter the league in 2013. |
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#12 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) Plenty of upside but he’s let down by his consistency. Not a great pass rusher… yet. |
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#13 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama) A top-10 level talent who dominates every week for the Crimson Tide. |
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#14 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) Sensational receiver who could be the next Megatron. |
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#15 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford) Not just a dynamic pass catcher, he’s also a top-end run blocker. |
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#16 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina) He’s just as good as Chance Warmack, if not better. He won’t last too long. |
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#17 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan) The Rams need a left tackle and Fisher looks the part. |
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#18 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU) Perhaps not quite as good as some people want you to believe, but he’ll be a terror lined up across from DeMarcus Ware. |
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#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU) Another player who could shoot up the board with a great combine. |
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#20 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia) This would be a complete steal. He could have more upside than anyone else in the draft. |
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#21 Matt Elam (S, Florida) Top talent who lasts this long only due to a lack of need. Elam’s a true playmaker in the secondary. |
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#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) Just a good football player. The Seahawks like to do things differently. Pete Carroll liked this guy during his USC/recruiting days. |
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#23 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan) The next best tackle and the Giants need to fill this position long term. |
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#24 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia) The ideal building block for a team looking to implement a 3-4 defense. |
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#25 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee) Although he’s playing guard at Tennessee, he has history at tackle and is good enough to move outside again. |
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#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama) His best position could be the five technique in a 3-4 defense. |
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#27 John Simon (DE, Ohio State) Just a really solid, blue-collar pass rusher. |
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#28 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia) Baltimore are good enough to take a chance on Jones, whose spinal stenosis issue will put off some teams. |
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#29 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina) Terrific pass rushing defensive tackle. |
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#30 Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State) A smart team will draft this guy in round one. He’s the second coming of Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace. |
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#31 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) Like Wheaton, just an incredibly underrated player. |
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#32 Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia) When you have a roster like Atlanta’s, why not go for an X-factor playmaker? |
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#34 Kansas City – C.J. Mosley (LB, Alabama)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Carolina – Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
#37 Cincinnati – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#38 Tennessee – Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
#39 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#40 Detroit – Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State)
#41 San Diego – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#42 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#43 Buffalo – New York Jets – Aaron Murray (QB, Georgia)
#44 Buffalo – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#45 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#46 Washington – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#47 Dallas – Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#48 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#49 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#50 Cincinnati – Le’Veon Bell (RB, Michigan State)
#51 Seattle – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#52 New York Giants – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#53 Pittsburgh – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#54 Miami – Corey Lemonier (DE, Alabama)
#55 Green Bay – Montee Ball (RB, Wisconsin)
#56 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#57 Baltimore – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#58 Denver – Giovani Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#61 Atlanta – Jonathan Franklin (RB, UCLA)
#62 Houston – Levine Toilolo (TE, Stanford)
Rob, thank you for introducing different options of players to think about. I was curious about Arthur Brown, recently I read that he has really short arms. This made me think of that LB from South Carolina last year. I forget his name just now, Ingram?
I know PC really likes this kid…
Boy, if the second round falls like that you couldn’t even really make a case for anyone other than Short. Good mock.
Rob – I’m with you on the concept that what you are doing is raising points for discussion. I’ve noticed that a lot of your postings are phrased in the form of a question (Should the Seahawks draft a leading receiver? Etc.) and I think that’s great. It allows people to take either side and encourages them to support their opinions. When asked, you offer your opinion.
So, knowing that things change from week to week, how would you prioritize the Seahawks needs at this point in the season?
For what it’s worth, I’d say (1) increased pressure from the base D — I don’t really care very much if it comes from the DT or from the DE, knowing that if it comes from the DE it may involve a change in the scheme we currently use, (2) a CB who initially competes to replace Tru and then could mature to compete to replace Browner or Sherman if they make any more bad mistakes off the field, (3) an OLB, (4) an X back/receiver, (5) a TE, (6) WRs. I’m not asking you to name draft picks, but what do you see as priorities?
#1 priority is upgrading the base defense pass rush. I agree with you there completely. And I think the best way to do that is to find a genuine three technique one way or another. Secondly, I think the next biggest need is another weapon on offense. I appreciate the performances of Lynch, Rice and Tate. However, I’m very much of the opinion you can never help a quarterback too much. And with Wilson growing into the position, I would like to keep making life as easy for him as possible. I’m also cautious that if Sidney Rice gets injured again – which has happened a lot in his career – this team is really, really light at receiver. Third need I’d say is a player who can man the WILL position and play above average coverage for the position. I’d round it off with cornerback. And quite frankly, I’d be prepared to draft for any of those positions in round one.
Not only can you not help a QB too much, but it takes considerable time and repetition for QBs and WRs to really mesh at a high level. It is imperative that a team can pair a QB with one or even two WRs as early as possible in their development.
Wilson has accelerated that timetable now. It will take 2 to 3 seasons to get to that point where a QB can make those ‘looked at him and he knew’ connections with their WRs. Every year you don’t get a WR — you add an additional season to achieve that familiar connection.
There is a very real reason why there is greater urgency to get that 2nd and 3rd WR option on this team immediately.
Good point, Attyla. I think that RW and Tate are developing that relationship, but it wouldn’t hurt to have an understudy for Tate “in the wings”.
about WIL… It’s a very small sample size, but it has looked like Malcolm Smith handled himself very well last week against the Bears. After this week against Arizona, who can at least look at a little film and scheme against him, I think we’ll have a better idea how his development is going – I’ve loved what I’ve seen from him in training camp visits and preseason games. He may be the real deal and I think WIL is not necessarily a top 2 rounds priority.
I still think the Hawks will spend 2 draft picks to bring in some versatile LBs – The WIL position looks like it will be a battle between Smith, Hill, Toomer, and some mid-late round draftees.
According to ProFootball Focus, Malcom Smith rated the best defensive player out of the entire Seahawks defense!
Here is an article describing it in general terms.
http://12thmanrising.com/2012/12/05/seahawks-malcolm-smith-makes-most-of-opportunity/
Couple names that I’ve not seen much of. One of which is interesting because there was a lot of discussion of him last year on this site:
1. Kevin Reddick (UNC)
2. Jake Knott (ISU)
Readers here will know how Reddick was highly regarded even amongst last years’ good class of LBs. The chatter on him appears to have cooled everywhere, even though the footage of this season looks like he’s not really lost a step. He’s been saddled with the ‘lack of consistent effort’ label. One thing I see, is a LB that doesn’t play particularly smart. He’s shown a propensity for getting personal foul penalties on 3rd down stops to extend drives. Good athlete. Size and speed. Inconsistent in both gap integrity and his ability to disengage from blocks and make tackles. He looks a lot better at the Will. Not great over the center though. Seems a better clean up tackler than a hole attacker.
Knott is a mid round kind of talent. But in a world where Pete and John are the mayors of ‘what a guy can do, not what he can’t’ ville — Knott has some unique skill. Something that I think is severely missing in Hawkland.
He is an OLB who looks very fluid and outstanding in pass defense. He just has a knack for sensing how routes develop behind him and the ability to burst on the ball quickly. It is clearly anticipation and when you watch him in his drop one is instantly reminded of Earl Thomas. It just looks like by the time the ball leaves the QBs hand, he is already at a full speed run to the spot where the ball is going.
Both LBs are 2nd to third day guys. But those talents tend to really make our drafts even if we don’t realize it in April.
I really like the way brown diagnoses the play and is pretty adept at shedding blocks to get where he’s going. He seems fast enough in coverage but I want to see more film. Ill add him to my watch list for the bowl games.
Interesting choice. I wonder if there is more value in the DT from NC or the WR from OSU in round 1 over the LB. That said, I’ve seen no tape of Mr. Brown. I suspect he is rangy and can cover.
Is there a LB in Seattle’s vicinity during the 2nd round that offers similar coverage with good LB skills available?
I’ve put Brown’s tape vs Miami into the post (see the top of the article). The only LB I really like in that range that wasn’t off the board is Reddick at UNC and he’s had a down year.
At what point does Amerson become a steal? Or do you just not like him as a pro?
He might be a steal in round seven. I’m not keen. He has no future at corner in the NFL in my view. And then you’re relying on his transition to safety working out. The interceptions are all well and good, but there are just so many fundamental issues with his game as a cornerback.
A side line to side line guy plus above average coverage is probably what PC is looking for when finding a new WILL. With Monty Kiffin possibly coming on board, you think there’s a possibility they’ll be targeting a guy like Derrick Brooks? Those early 2000’s Bucs had Sapp, Brooks, and Lynch at each level, respectively. I can safely say we have Kam as our “Lynch”, and I know we still need to find our “Sapp”, but do we have our “Brooks”? Which by the way, Brooks was a coverage, side line to side line guy..
Interesting way of looking at it. And I think they’re probably the two positions they will be targeting most in the off-season. That and another WR/TE.
Love it. I don’t know why, but I am enamored with Arthur Brown.
You listed C.J. Mosley and Khaseem Greene as the next LBs taken after Brown. What is your take on them and would they fit in Seattle?
I like both and they’d be right up there as potential options. I think Greene is better inside but I’m a big fan of Mosley.
Great site, Rob. I’ve been reading regularly for about three years, however I rarely post. Can you tell me what picks we have for 2013? I’ve heard people mention that we have a lot of picks in the later rounds, but I don’t recall this. Thanks.
USAFANARC, I was just gonna comment on this. The Great Blue North Report tracks traded draft picks. Going by their records:
We have ten picks. These are our original picks for Rounds 1-7 plus an extra 5th from the Raiders (A Curry), an extra 7th from the Bills (T Jackson), and an extra 7th from the Saints (B Ruud). There’s also a chance we end up with another mid-rounder if we move Matt Flynn, which I think is likely.
This isn’t a team with tons of holes. I could see us bundling picks to make a move up for a difference-maker, such as an offense weapon or 3-Tech
As far as I know, we have an extra 5th for Aaron Curry and a late round pick for Tarvaris Jackson on top of our own picks. Thanks for the kind words too.
I think if KC picks a QB, they’ll pick someone with upside. I can’t see Barkley going number 1.
I’d be interested in this scenario for Seattle tho. I think we are getting a point where Seattle can draft BPA. There are still needs, but not so glaring that we have to make reaches. I think this will be a significant draft of the us as fans to see how PC and JS will do things long term. Now that we are pretty much approaching the end of the rebuild.
I think it’d be wrong to say Barkley doesn’t have upside. He’s not the big time athlete we’ve seen go early in previous years, but he is very good in many other areas. He can lead a team. He can be the ’tilt the field’ type of leader. And he won’t have Lane Kiffin coaching him anymore.
I’ve never been a fan of Barkley. No denying he’ll be in the discussion as the top QB drafted this year, but I don’t see the ‘upside factor’ with him, either. Geno Smith would be that guy. (If) he can develop further mentally, all the tools are there physically to be a cornerstone QB like Newton or RGIII. Talking #1 pick overall does a team play it safe or swing for the fences?
Good comparison write up on Brown and Ogletree on rotoworld. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/42052/321/comparing-brown–and–ogletree
Stoner does good work, but from following him on Twitter, he’s not an Ogletree guy, mostly because I think he looks at him through the prism of an ILB. Ogletree has to be a WIL to take full advantage of his ability. Too long, athletic, aggressive, etc to pin in the middle.
I’ve actually always liked Ogletree, big strong fast, can cover, I think he could fit in well with our linebackers. With that said I would not take either of them in rd 1, if they fall to rd 2, that is a different story.
I’m wondering if there’s enough value for this team if they go LB in the first. One of our LBs will be coming off the field in passing situations, so if the 1st rounder can’t force either KJ or Wagner off the field then it’s a bit of a waste. And if they can force one of them off the field, is it enough of an upgrade to make it worthwhile?
I think a DT or receiver are far bigger priorities. Maybe even a stud RT.
Our LB coverage, particularly over the middle has been pretty poor. Wright and/or Wagner could be the determining factor. I’m thinking it’s more Wagner.
That TD pass allowed to Matt Forte was just pure God awful. Wagner had an inside position on him at the snap — perfectly aligned to defend the slant. In fact he wasn’t even shaded inside. He was a good yard and a half inside his inside shoulder. And yet Forte was able to get across his face clean and was able to create separation before Wagner even turned his hips. It was a case of uber perfect positioning but about the worst case of execution I’ve seen from the LB position.
The fact he was able to go to the ground and roll into the end zone for 2+ yards made it almost comical.
I’ve seen both Wright and Wagner really struggle this year. Wright has length but doesn’t have much ability to change direction or spin his hips and drop quickly. Wagner I confess I’ve not watched him closely. I will keep a closer eye on him.
Clearly our pass defense from the LB position is terrible. We allow easy conversions and YAC with alarming frequency there. Especially on 3rd down. It’s a position where either the guys we have need to improve at it, or we need new guys to defend it.
I’m not convinced KJ Wright has warranted that level of trust on third downs.
yeah…i agree…poor linebacker coverage on third down is the soft spot on this defense. Of course it is just as easy to point the finger at the pass rush, yet i think the inability to get off the field or force turnovers on third and long, falls more on the shoulders of our third down lb’s. It’s not an absolute situation, but i think Wright and Wagner are somewhat lost in this scheme on third down. It’s not a speed thing, it’s mental. When teams game plan and run primary routes into their zone, they are struggling. They struggle especially when two or more receivers peel their zones. Sometimes i wonder if they might switch them, so that wright moves to the inside and wagner outside? Does this make any sense? Wagner seems to be more fluid in coverage, Wright more disciplined in run pursuit.
Are we ready to give up on KJ Wright so early? One of his main attributes was precisely how his length should help on passing downs. Wagner’s uneven play isn’t a huge surprise as he is a rookie, but KJ isn’t exactly a seasoned vet yet either. His length is exactly what Carrol looks for on passing downs. With a 1st round LB pick to have value we’ll be deciding the book is closed on KJ Wright.
No. But hedging your bets now is exactly the prudent move. You can’t simply just wait for a guy to confirm he can’t do it before you add talent that will take a year before they are developed.
And it’s not to say you give up on these guys either. These guys are extremely solid on first/second down. If we need to get coverage specialists for 3rd down, it’s worth it. And it doesn’t diminish the value of Wright/Wagner, nor does it infer we give up on their ability.
Right now, this team requires an upgrade of coverage ability over the middle. Either it will come from the LBs we have, or we will have to get it from another source. If we get another source and Wagner/Wright also happen to upgrade their coverage skills through simple experience then great. Need resolved. And we’ll have depth to boot.
The need drives the move. Wagner and Wright still have starter quality value even if they don’t become adequate at coverage. Coverage specialists is a good way to get maximum value from a 3rd through 6th round pick. We don’t need all around excellent LBs (although they are nice). But those prospects usually go in round 1 and 2. We can accept a less complete LB, so long as they can do the one situational thing we need well.
It’s no indictment on Wagner or Wright. I’m not suggesting we send them off on an ice floe.
Love it when Rob puts up a new mock draft. Cheers! Am I wrong to think if the draft fell like this for the Hawks it would be the equivalent of a wife wearing baggy sweat pants and a flannel shirt? IE not sexy.
Haha! Not sexy for sure. But possibly effective. And there’s a lot of options on the board. This is a good draft class.
I really like Kawann Short in round 2. The guy can really break through the line and has a great motor from what I have seen (admittedly not much). My big question though, is Brown faster than Mosley? I think Mosley would be much better, value wise, as most places I see, and from my own eyes, Brown is maybe a third round talent. Admittedly I haven’t watched too much of him either and would be ok with him in the second but a late first seems a little high. I am also very sold on Sylvester Williams so I was a little bummed you didn’t send him to us (although you have in the past so I understand why you didn’t this time). I know a lot of our picks are deemed reaches but every reach has had superior physicals in my opinion. I don’t see Brown being the superior athlete or even the better fit than Mosley. Also read that Brown started out on the outside and did not play well, then got moved inside. Would moving him back outside, where he doesn’t like to play, be a good thing then?
I fine L.Bell a RB that has no place at RB in the NFL. G.Bernard seems to be getting the ‘first RB drafted’ love in recent weeks. I wonder if Jawan Jamison will declare?
I’m not sure why you think that about Bell. He’s a prototypical big back.
Rob, I’ve seen some interesting things about Da’Rick Rogers from Tennessee Tech (I think). He look to have good size and strength but may fall in the draft due to character issues. Is he somebody you think the Seahawks would take a hard look at and where would you see him going in the draaft? s he worthy of a 2nd round pick in your opinion?
I’m not convinced. The character issues bother me a lot and when I watch the tape – he’s big but the speed isn’t elite by any means. He’s a solid player. But for the risk factor I’d want more explosion. I think he’s a R4-5 guy at best.
Thanks! i value your opinion on these things. Keep up the good work!