It’s not you, it’s me
A lot of arguments are made to justify the Jamal Adams trade but none really cut the mustard. I argued against some of them here and here but here’s a brief recap of some of the points.
He set a record for sacks by a defensive back
This is explained by a highly unusual 8.2 blitzes per game, producing 0.8 sacks.
If you blitzed Ryan Neal eight times a game there’s a chance he will record one sack. I’m afraid this record is more an indication of Seattle’s need to justify Adams’ presence, rather than any sign of anything remarkable about his performance.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush (especially with this being an unusual draft with no combine or in-person meetings)
Not really. With a cap crunch consuming every team, you need cheap talent to fill out your roster.
At the moment the Seahawks are officially $6m over the cap — that’s the worst cap situation in the league. They also have the third fewest contracted players (57).
Something has to give. In order to simply fill out the roster — they’re going to have to either sacrifice players they’d rather keep or they’re going to have to borrow against the cap — with consequences down the line.
He’s a blue-chip stud and you need players like that
There’s no doubting Adams is a talent but is he a fit in Seattle? It’s well known by now that he was the 53rd ranked safety according to PFF in 2020. Injuries and a new scheme may have partly contributed to that ranking. However, I’m not convinced it’s just down to that.
The 3-4 schemes run by Todd Bowles and Gregg Williams in New York exploit looks where any defender can rush. You never know where the pressure’s coming from. The Seahawks don’t do this in their scheme. Often Adams simply rushed off the edge with the linebackers also blitzing to suck in protection. It’s predictable.
I don’t think his 53.1 coverage grade was just ‘one of those things’ either. The Seahawks essentially put him in a position where they needed him to be a downfield attack-dog so often. That’s not conducive with some of the traditional duties expected of a safety.
Either way you’re paying $18m for someone who has to blitz a lot or just plays like a more orthodox defensive back. For all his desire to be seen as a ‘football player’ with no defined position, the reality is he’s a box safety.
You can’t trade a player so soon after making a big investment in him
I think this is the worst argument of the lot. Not being too proud to fix a mistake isn’t something to criticise. It should be celebrated. The Seahawks have done it plenty of times already — moving on from Michael Bennett a year after giving him a huge extension, in order to repair their culture. Getting rid of Percy Harvin.
Right now the Seahawks need depth, they need to invest in key positions for the future and they need club-control on salary.
They don’t need a safety absorbing $18m a year.
Look at it this way. The Seahawks gave up two firsts and a third rounder for Adams. They’re paying him $9.8m this year. He will expect at least $18m a year from 2022.
That works out as three cheap players drafted in the top-100. If they trade down in round one, you could theoretically be getting five players in the top-100.
And while it’s true that their recent draft history is poor — that’s not a reason to stop drafting altogether.
Selecting Rashaad Penny instead of Nick Chubb, Malik McDowell instead of TJ Watt and LJ Collier instead of AJ Brown or Deebo Samuel is simply indicative of team needing to make better decisions, not eliminate those decisions altogether.
When they’ve avoided desperately drafting for need — they’ve made terrific choices (DK Metcalf, Damien Lewis).
Adams’ salary this year is similar to Gabe Jackson’s. Trade him and you’d have no issue bringing back Carlos Dunlap. You might even get Dunlap and another.
Next year you could have two players on the same salary as Jackson.
So the reality of the trade is it’s either Jamal Adams or five drafted players over the next two years plus potentially two Gabe Jackson-level free agents/trades.
I find it impossible to argue that Adams is the better decision when it’s broken down like that. Especially given Seattle’s striking lack of depth, cap space and picks.
The trade could only be justified for a true game-changer — a Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald for example. Not a highly energetic, blitzing box safety.
I still maintain that getting out of the deal, saving money and regaining picks is the right thing to do.
Today, I’ll try to explain further as to why.
The Seahawks have no long term solution at left tackle, cornerback or pass rusher.
These are key positions, second only to quarterback.
Duane Brown turns 36 in August. He has one year left on his deal. You might need to replace him in 12 months.
A good plan would be to draft and develop.
Usually it’s very difficult to find explosive, physically talented tackle prospects. Not this year. For all the concern about the 2021 draft, multiple offensive linemen have excelled at pro-day.
Some of these players need developing and harnessing. Yet they have the kind of skills you usually can’t find beyond the top-15.
For example, Texas’ Sam Cosmi jumped a 30 inch vertical and a 9-9 broad jump. That’s remarkable. He could easily last into round two because technically he needs major work and he needs to learn how to finish. Give him a year or two learning the ropes and you could find a natural successor to Brown.
Alex Leatherwood has footwork issues preventing him from kick-sliding effectively to defend the edge. He needs to learn how to make the most of his length. Yet at his pro-day he jumped a 34.5 inch vertical and a 9-10 broad. Again — he could be a tremendous prospect to work with as a potential heir apparent.
Alijah Vera-Tucker lacks length (32 inch arms) but he had a majestic season at left tackle for USC which should allay some fears. He jumped a 32 inch vertical and an 8-10 broad. He’s a fantastic talent who will go in round one, it’s just a case of how early.
Walker Little hasn’t played for two years due to injury and sitting out 2020. Yet he has the ideal tackle frame and he managed a 9-3 broad to go with a 29.5 inch vertical.
Dillon Radunz had an explosive workout, jumping a 32 inch vertical and a 9-4 broad. He also excelled at the Senior Bowl.
Some players are yet to test and I could add even more names to the list.
The fact is for the first time in a long time, there’s an opportunity for the Seahawks to draft a tackle who might be able to be their long term answer at a vital position.
Without any picks though — they’ve pretty much eliminated themselves from contention. With only #56 and then nothing until #129 — they can’t afford to draft someone who won’t play in 2021.
If/when Brown calls it a day — what then? Another expensive trade? The next version of Bradley Sowell or Rees Odhiambo?
What is better for the Seahawks? Being forced to start the safety they took in round two in 2019 — Marquise Blair — and having a potential long term left tackle? On top of all the other players you can add. Or is it having Jamal Adams?
Let’s go a step further.
For three seasons now they’ve been going year-to-year at defensive end. They don’t have a consistently effective, dynamic, young pass rusher.
If you want to believe Darrell Taylor could be that guy, that’s fine. Personally, I think until we see him out on the field practising it’s impossible to have any faith. His is an unusual injury that requires him feeling comfortable playing with a plate in his leg. The reality is, it seems to be a challenge for him (understandably so).
I’m not a big Jayson Oweh fan because of his tape. He looks like a man without a plan. He didn’t have any sacks in 2020.
Yet Lance Zierlein raises a good point. He only started playing football in 2016. He has rare physical skills. He just ran a 4.36 at the Penn State pro-day, adding a 39.5 inch vertical. He’s 6-5 and 257lbs.
Oweh has the kind of physical profile Seattle badly needs attacking the edge. If you can harness that potential, he could be a star.
There’s a chance because of his testing he’ll go in round one. He could’ve been there for Seattle — and if not, the chances of Kwity Paye, Jaelen Phillips or even the #1 edge Azeez Olujari being there increase.
So right off the bat you could’ve been looking at a pass rusher and left tackle for the long term with your first two picks — with a $9.8m salary saving that could’ve been used to upgrade at center next to Gabe Jackson.
Again — how is that not more appealing?
It’s been a long time since the Seahawks spent regular picks at cornerback. This is a rich class at the position. It would’ve been a good opportunity to potentially add someone in the middle rounds to develop. Especially given that both prospective starters and your backup at the moment are all out of contract after 2021.
Yet with only picks #56 and #129 — the chances to get someone you like are severely limited.
I haven’t even discussed a third receiver. This draft is loaded there too.
It really does feel like a massive missed opportunity for the Seahawks this year to try and address some needs for the present and future.
The Adams trade was highly aggressive and with hindsight, ill-advised. Many still back the move and probably always will. Yet the chances of Adams ever justifying the picks and salary investment are remote.
The Seahawks need cap space. They need to fill holes. They need cheap talent.
They don’t need an expensive safety blocking Marquise Blair’s path to starting, essentially wasting the second rounder spent on him too (because there’s no reason to kick Ugo Amadi out of the nickel role).
All is not lost though. They can still put things right.
They won’t get a refund on what they spent. Finding the best deal to move on, get back in the draft and save salary is still however, by far the most sensible option.
There are a lot of weird and wonderful trade suggestions involving the likes of Jarran Reed and Tyler Lockett at the moment because everyone acknowledge something’s got to give and people are uncomfortable with the thought that the man to depart could still be the franchise QB.
You wouldn’t get anything for Reed. He has one year left on his contract. He’s expensive. He’s a defensive tackle. You might get a fifth rounder if you’re lucky. You only save $8.5m this year and nothing in 2022.
Moving Lockett would obliterate Seattle’s receiving options while adding to Russell Wilson’s angst. Good luck justifying it to the quarterback. Hey Russell — other than Metcalf your next two best receivers are Freddie Swain and John Ursua. Now go win us the NFC West. Yeah right.
The clear and obvious answer is to trade Jamal Adams, start Blair, make better use of your resources and just move on — with the intention of trying to draft a long-term piece for the O-line and D-line.
The only other option is to trade Bobby Wagner and start Jordyn Brooks at linebacker. The draft compensation won’t be as good, however, and Wagner is clearly a good fit for Seattle’s defense.
Nobody forced the Seahawks to spend high picks at safety and linebacker. They could’ve used those picks on other positions.
If they pay Adams — they’ll be on the hook for around $38-40m just for their starting strong safety and middle linebacker in 2022. That’s incomprehensible.
Neither is it realistic to go into next year with about $55m in cap space and only 25 contracted players — with Brown, Lockett, both starting cornerbacks, Reed, Quandre Diggs and others out of contract. All for the sake of a luxury addition in Adams.
I’ve argued this since day one and nobody, so far, has produced a convincing counter. Too much resource has gone into safety and linebacker. They don’t have long term answers at key positions.
That simply has to change.
Of course, the elephant in the room is that one other player could still be dealt.
You can now support Seahawks Draft Blog via Patreon by clicking the tab below.
It makes no sense why the Seahawks traded for Adams.
Dumbest NFL trade of all time.
I feel obligated to point out the Seahawks traded 6-1 233 LB Fredd Young to Indy for 2 first round picks. He’d had a 6 sack season and a 9 sack season for the Seahawks and they couldn’t agree on a contract extension.
Young would record 2 sacks in 3 seasons for Indy.
The Seahawks used one of those picks acquired to trade up and snag Cortez Kennedy.
JS would have traded back for Rodney Hampton and and Ricky Proehl.
Not even close. Ricky Williams, Rick Mirer, Herschel Walker, Steve Young, and others all say hello.
Um, naw … a mistake yes, but not an order of magnitude worse than 3-4 trades made every year.
At the moment the Seahawks are officially $6m over the cap — that’s the worst cap situation in the league. They also have the third fewest contracted players (57).
This is remarkable, and not in a good way.
They have an entire year to get under the Cap. It’s not an issue. They will extend some players and all will be ok.
To have the most money spent on the fewest players is the remarkable part. Not that they can’t get under the cap by 2022.
You make a really strong case here, Rob. Not stated, but implicit in your argument, is the fact that there’s no way that Adams is going to play this season without a new contract that will make him the highest paid safety in the league, or close to it. If they can get two picks in the first three rounds for Adams it’s essentially a no-brainer as long as they can swallow their pride.
As always, thanks for the great content and for amassing a smart group of followers —-> great comments section.
Thanks man
Big Mike were you aware of this??
😆
I also feel like I’ve written those words 17,204,505,505 times this year already.
I think it’s the price you pay for actually being willing to talk about the big issues instead of avoiding them
🤣😂
😀
I wish I knew how to do emojis here cuz I would’ve done the “pondering” one
I don’t think the question anymore is “Should they trade him.” I think it’s now “Why haven’t they done so already?”
What teams are a good match for an Adams trade?
Anyone from the BB tree…and also anyone that needs to apply pressure from their secondary via blitz packages 8+ times per game.
They won’t even get close to 2 1st. I would take a 2 and 3 this year for Adams. You won’t have to pay him and with a 2nd and 3rd this year, you could possible come away with Williams and Cleveland along with your mock pick of Meinerz. Or maybe get a DE instead of one of the OL. To me, getting 3 possible starters on cheap 4 year contracts at positions of need would be better than $15 million dollar blitzing safety that can’t cover a bed.
However, how PC has been drafting as of late, it’s almost lost hope anyways.
But they drafted DK in 2019 and Damien Lewis last year. Those are two pretty good picks, and they’re of late.
I get the criticism of their drafting overall. They swing for the fences often, and not necessarily in a logical way. But I don’t think their problem is poor scouting and evaluation. I think they’ve been victims of their own success, partly in that they’re always picking late in the first round because of their regular season successes over the last many years, and partly because they struck lightning twice in a row in 2013, first on perennial top LB and future HOFer Bobby Wagner in round 2, and perennial top QB and future HOFer Russell Wilson, which may have led them to believe they’re some kind of draft whisperers, when in reality they’re probably no better or worse than any other FO around the League.
Anyway, I have hope that they can bolster the roster significantly in this year’s draft, if only they had the draft capital to make it happen.
That is an issue that has not really been mentioned. Maybe they would like to trade him, but the offers are very low.
As I can’t see anything in your post to rationally disagree with, I’ll resort to cheap pedantry.
“At the moment, the Seahawks are officially $6 million over the cap …” I think *unofficially would be more appropriate here. OTC is pretty upfront about not being an official source, and Jason Fitzgerald’s podcast on March 20 explained why they sometimes show teams as being over the cap when in reality they aren’t. Mostly it’s a question of when contracts are processed; OTC’s timing may be different than the League’s for a variety of reasons.
https://overthecap.com/otc-podcast-march-20-2021
So essentially, they might not be the actual worst. But still really bad.
It’s not much comfort…
I’m with you on trading Jamal. Love the player and he is elite (I think he’s better than you often give him credit for, but I know your purpose is to present a your point) but he really is just a luxury that we just can’t afford now in cap and draft capital. I think drafting him for what they did was a mistake in the first place was a mistake, but I digress… my point is
Haven’t most other teams done a bunch of restructuring and extending already, and the Hawks haven’t done any yet? I feel fairly confident that they’ll extend Brown and Lockett and convert some Russell money, so I don’t think they’ve been really fiscally irresponsible, I just think they haven’t made those moves yet because they’re still signing guys and will make those moves when they know how much room to create. But you and others on here are more familiar with the off-season 2-step than me, so I’d welcome any input
The next year, 2022, the Seahawks have the third *most* cap space at $94.8M. Which I assume is why we see all these void year contracts. I doubt Schneider is feeling hemmed in by the cap situation.
Next year they have $75,779,756 which will go down to $55m if they extend Adams.
Plus they only have 24 contracted players.
Plus Brown, Lockett, Reed, both starting cornerbacks, Diggs and others are out of contract.
The cap space is a huge mirage.
That 78,779 figure is what is called effective cap space with 51 players signed. Funny how you swap cap numbers depending on which one supports your agenda. While talking about trading RW and “borrowing from the 2022 cap space you used the regular cap space figure to make seem huge, now when you want to paint a bleaker picture you switch to effective cap numbers to minimize the cap space. Be fair and stay constant Rob. 2022 cap space is going to go quickly to be sure, on the other hand the Seahawks will have the flexibility to change where they spend and the free agent period hopefully becomes much more interesting for Seahawks fans.
In the instance of Wilson, you remove the most expensive player on the roster by far, creating masses of space and freedom. It unlocks everything. It makes sense to talk about the total cap. If you’re going to completely reduce your resources and restrict everything, it makes sense to be precise in how limited they are.
But congrats for using the effective vs total cap space as a convenient way to avoid addressing any of the difficult arguments broached.
Not avoiding addressing anything Rob. Not having to account for most important and expensive position or including that cost in the cap space can give one a false impression of being cap rich as long as one is OK with getting by with garbage at QB like Geno Smith or any of the alternatives you have given. There really isn’t any decent alternatives if you trade RW. Seahawks would be back to trying to find a QB in the draft for the next decade.
In any case I look forward to 2022 cap space and a full slate of draft picks and RW at QB for the Seahawks. Skies the limit for choices on structuring the roster. They can even create additional cap space if they want. However I get it, your disillusioned with the Seahawks and that the view point that your opinions are formed from. It is definitely getting to be a “thing” with some of the fans. Makes me sad you’ve become one of them.
I see you’re now attempting to build a strawman.
My argument on the cap hit was purely and simply to dispel the myth that the ‘dead’ cap hit made a trade impossible. I was the first person to make that argument — and other national journalists have since made that argument too.
I never attempted to justify a Wilson trade. I never said it was a good idea. I never said they could ‘get by’ with Geno Smith.
So please don’t make out like I did do that.
They won’t have a full slate of picks. They’ve already traded their first round pick for Jamal Adams.
Sure, if you intend to find a way to re-sign or replace the following positions with about $55m to spend:
LT1
RT1
DE2
CB1
CB2
WR2
TE1
FS1
Plus you’ve only got 25 players contracted, so you need to fill out your depth too.
No, I’m just laying out the situation out to you.
If you can come up with actual answers to the points/concerns I’m raising, then we can debate about it.
If your only response is attempts to undermine, evade and imply that my opinions are based on disillusionment rather than simply an assessment of the situation, then you can get royally stuffed.
Piss off Harold. Get outta here with that passive aggressive shit.
“It’s not you, it’s me.” Well done sir.
In case anyone needs a reminder, here’s the possible silver lining and a small dose of sense the Seahawks have displayed in this situation:
https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1287707819085631489
Rob,
If I had to boil it down to why Pete is managing the roster in the way that he is, and how it varies from you’re suggesting, I would say it comes down to this: I believe Pete thinks this team is just 1-2 guys away from being a legit Super Bowl contender, and I suspect you think it’s going to take a lot more than that.
I’m on your side. I think the veneer looks good but there’s rot setting in underneath. Several years of mostly sub-par drafting will eventually catch up. We need structural improvements in a lot of places.
I agree, and I think it’s ironic because it’s Russ that has been holding this team together the past couple of years, and yet Pete still doesn’t seem to have curated a good relationship with him over that time despite his importance.
The truly unfortunate consequence of them going 12-4 last season is that Pete will use it to prop up his argument.
The rest of the sane world sees a team that played an insanely easy 2nd half of the the season and got bounced in the first round.
And at no point last year… no point… did they look like a serious contender.
The Adams trade was gross misconduct on the parts of Pete and John. Paying a king’s ransom because they knew the defense was going to be a complete embarrassment if they did’nt do something. It turns out it still was even with him, historically bad up until they acquired Dunlap. Pete and John’s overall poor drafting/trading and free agency dealings forced themselves into the position of making such a terrible trade at such an important time, a time where the so desperately needed cheaper younger talent at foundational positions across the roster and a time where their all star QB was slowing down a bit and needed better protection and a more complete arsenal of weapons around him.
Frankly imo there is no excusing the trade for Adams. It was the crowning achievement of desperation borne from years of poor roster construction and mis-management. It was destructive to the team in a number of ways and any and all efforts should be made to recoup whatever draft stock possible by shipping him of to another team.
Truth
Spot on post
Rob, what do you think Hawks could get for Adams in a trade?
I don’t know. I’m not a NFL GM, talking to other NFL GM’s. But I am confident they would get a reasonable price.
I think GM can be creative here can get another player who hawks needs to fill roster spot plus draft picks. I have no doubt we should trade Adams and Bobby which can be used to balance the roster. I will like to see KJ and Carlos Dunlop to be signed.
I question how bad the defense would have been if we just kept McDougald. They would have still had issues with pass rush, but I think overall the defense would have been in the correct positions. Wouldn’t have had to make up for all the blitzing.
I’ll go back to a proposed trade made about a month ago… Trade RW to the NY Jets for 2021 draft picks #2, #23 and #34 plus the lesser of the Jets round 1 picks in 2022 plus Sam Darnold… Then parlay that #2 pick into maybe 3 round 2 and 3 picks in 2021 plus a round 1 pick in 2022… Knowing Schneider, he could make those picks last for years into the future… Rebuild!
Wilson has a no trade clause and he’s not interested in going to the Jets.
Let’s risk losing the player who fits our defense like a glove and elevated it last year because we don’t want to overpay him, all the while overpaying the player who doesn’t really fit our defense and adapting to whom lowered it to record-pace incompetence.
And let’s simultaneously alienate our $35m quarterback by NOT changing our offense.
More and more I think, they’ll draft a WR in R2.
PCJS seem to think they have a winning team that only needs another weapon. And it’s basically the last win now season with RW under center.
As they really lack a speedster, I think Eskridge coul be a target.
But don’t you think the Waldron hire was exactly that? A changing of the offense? And bringing back Carson and bringing in Jackson were moves to help/appease Wilson?
Let’s hear that from both parties publicly. Then I’ll agree with that.
The conflict is still there and ongoing.
Very nice.
That is a quick and explosive athlete.
Man that 3 cone and short shuttle. There’s an agile athlete. I wonder if he’s as sudden as those numbers suggest. I’ve not scouted him so I don’t know.
Your reasoning about what to do about Adams is pretty darn foolproof. We overpaid for Adams. That’s pretty clear given the position he plays and that he hasn’t proven to be a top shelf cover-guy.
I gave them the benefit of the doubt after the trade from the perspective of trying to get to the SB last year. After all, getting to the SB is the goal, isn’t it?
They had a pretty easy schedule, all things considered, and had they taken care of the Giants like they should have, gotten a bit luckier on the injury front, handled the RW/offensive strategy thing better, they may well have gotten a lot closer to the SB than they did after the Dunlap trade.
So there was that for me.
But best case scenario certainly didn’t turn out. It turned out even worse than it did given that they won the division.
So in retrospect, I’m not at all fond of the trade, and pretty much where Rob is at in terms of what must be done now to salvage some real flexibility in creating a stronger roster.
This is the kind of thing I have to put up with now…
https://twitter.com/Robanzu/status/1375192062123864069
‘What happened? You were always a balanced voice of reason.’
Because of course. You can’t be critical and balanced.
Not for much longer. I’ll leave the Seattle media to it. Nothing will ever be challenged. Everyone can live in ignorant bliss.
Easy comeback: What happened? My voice hasn’t changed, you’ve just stopped listening…
I’m just getting to the point where I can’t be arsed any more.
I thought fans wanted an honest, reasoned reflection of the state of the Seahawks.
Some do. Sadly a more vocal group do not.
Ahh the world we live in. You could just as easily been talking about politics and posted what you did. But it’s a sport’s team and people will still expell their vitriol upon anyone who does’nt align with what they want to hear and believe.
Very true.
I ignore political discourse online. I’m close to going the same with the Seahawks. I can’t be arsed any more. This isn’t my full time job and I put too much time into this to get shite like that thrown at me because I think this is heading in a bad direction.
But you know, it’s not like the quarterback hasn’t been flirting with moving on. Clearly everything’s great.
I could fault neither you or Russ for how you feel. Whatever you go forward with may it bring you real satisfaction and thankfulness.
Thank you
Just a thought, take it or leave it…
I first started following your draft work, then more of your Seahawks-specific stuff. I could be way off, but seemed like in the past you took more of a ‘this is what I think the Seahawks are doing/why they did what they did.’ Lately your stuff has been more ‘this is what I think they should do.’ Essentially it’s gone from more interpretive to more prescriptive. But you’re the author, so you’re the authority on what you’ve written and why. If that is at all accurate, I guess those kind of stances are lightning rods.
BUT
I do wish people would be okay with takes different than their own, though. There is absolutely no justification for people to be rude to one another, especially when we are all just fans sharing a common affinity, Rob included. Rob, I disagree with plenty of your takes, but who cares?!? We’re not married, we don’t work together, it’s no skin off my nose if somebody sees a Seahawks matter differently than me. Any if we all just shared the same ideas, what would be the point? It’s the differences in opinion that makes for productive discussion anyway.
Appreciate you and your work, Rob, even if I don’t always agree with you.
It’s not so much a ‘this is what I think they should do’ as an ‘I can’t believe the direction they’re going’.
I think it’s a natural progression from what we’ve seen of this front office. They deserved praise and the benefit of the doubt their early years. Personally, I was happy to see what they did – they built a roster of historic talent. When you have a Percy Harvin thrown in there – that’s easy to forgive. Sure, there was always a John Moffitt or EJ Wilson but who cares? Bottom line was they had many more hits than misses. They were great at what they did overall.
The second half of their tenure has been mostly offseasons of much failure. There have been a few stud pickups (Diggs and Dunlap trade, picking up Reed) and a few draft hits (specifically DK) but the money wasted on marginal players and too many draft picks burned on the wrong players (Chubb/Penny, McDowell/Watt, etc.) warrants extreme criticism. It’s natural to go from supportive and getting the benefit of the doubt to deserving being questioned when you actually go into a season with Benson Mayowa as your #1 rusher and ask him to play 90% of snaps. And you’re mortgaging the future by trading the farm for a strong safety that isn’t particularly good at covering people. How can you turn a blind eye when moves like that are staring you in the face? How can you support someone at all costs when there have been the level of boneheaded moves they’ve been doing for years now? At some point, there needs to be hard questions asked – especially when they have only won 2 play-off games since the 2014 season and they only reason they won those two was because Blair Walsh missed an easy/short FG after the defense gave the game away and then they beat the almighty Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions. They have don’t nothing in January for a long time now and February doesn’t seem realistic anymore.
“Some do. Sadly a more vocal group do not.”
Rob, I work in an industry where the past year has been the most difficult of my 34-year professional career, because of world events half a continent away and the resulting social movement and venomous uninformed public discourse. I feel like I understand where you’re coming from because the joy goes out of what you do when you take pride in providing public service only to have to constantly defend your very existence against a convenient but uniformed narrative. The only way we get through it is to remind ourselves and each other every day that the loudest voices are actually the minority, despite appearances to the contrary. When the hatred is constant, it is natural to believe everyone feels that way, even though the silent majority stand in support. Keep the faith.
Thanks Gary — unfortunately though I think there is an alternative. And that’s just not to do it any more. I’m immensely proud of this place but the grief and negativity just isn’t fun. I always did this for fun.
Honest question. What makes you feel obligated to engage with them?
Engaging isn’t the problem.
It’s the tweets, comments and emails I don’t ask for — but are sent anyway.
I’m 65/35 now that this will be my final year. If this was my full time job it would be different. It isn’t.
Look at the tweets I get for writing about this:
https://twitter.com/donomatic/status/1375206380202696706
https://twitter.com/WillHan97720734/status/1375204676057006080
And that’s before we get into being sent messages about how my four-year-old daughter will grow up to be a prostitute because I’m her dad (because, you know, I think the Seahawks have a few issues) or all of the angry, abusive emails I get. The people saying I must have mental health issues or problems at home.
It’s just become a chore writing about the Seahawks now. If this gig came with a salary — I’d embrace it. Just as I do with my BBC job, where the abuse, when I worked in Sheffield, was 10x worse.
But it isn’t. It’s supposed to be a hobby. And clearly if you want to challenge, probe and express concern — that is unacceptable to many. And when you constantly have to deal with people seeking to undermine, it sucks all of the enjoyment out.
I’m happy to just watch the draft prospects and the Seahawks games, maybe be part of a discord with a few of you and do that after the 2021 draft. At the moment, it’s trending that way.
Rob,
Long time reader. Would miss your analysis and site if you decide to hang it up. Sucks that people can’t talk football or anything really without making it personal. This last year you have gone above and beyond to bring this site to a new level. I will always appreciate that. Hopefully after the draft you take some time to recharge and step away for awhile.
Thanks for making this site what it is. Take care.
It’s really sad and discouraging to hear this Rob, Seems like the whole world is just getting angrier and more toxic by the day. The days of people being able to think critically and rationally for themselves and having a civil debate seem like a distant memory.
It would be a huge loss to Seahawks fans if you were to close down the site. I don’t always agree with you but I do always enjoy reading your analysis. And sometimes I actually end up changing my mind (I’m all in for trading Jamal now).
Forget the haters. You have far more fans.
Hope you decide to keep it going.
Man, it is really a huge bummer to hear about the abuse you and your family are getting. Really quite ridiculous, it amazes me how shitty people can be to one another for having an opinion. Hearing about that just makes me lose faith in humanity, but then you also have to remember that its really a small % of people who do that sort of thing, most people will just read and never comment.
Of course I selfishly want you to keep writing cause you do a great job of picking apart and dissecting the draft/team/strategies at play, but I totally get it that dealing with the abuse would dampen the fun to the point you don’t want to do it anymore.
I’ll be a fan regardless.
Rob – I have never had a social media account and never will. To me the benefits of those don’t outweigh the kind of garbage you have to put up with there. This is the only site I do any sort of posting on because of the great content and respectful community and it took me 7-8 years to even get to that point from being a lurker. Of course you have to do what’s best for you and your family but I hope you give up Twitter before SDB brah.
+1
Everyone I know with an active Twitter account has at some point had the same reaction as Rob. I don’t understand it. If it’s causing you grief, and it clearly is, ditch it. It’s not like it’s something you have an emotional relationship with, like a spouse or a sailboat. Or a safety.
With respect, Twitter is vitally important in the media.
I’m not on the radio twice last week without Twitter for a start.
Most people wouldn’t know this place existed.
You’ve got to play the game if you want to do this.
Understood, but if it’s just supposed to be a hobby then you don’t need Twitter to do what you do here. Looking forward to the Dunlap analysis…
There’s no point running a blog if you’re not putting it out there
KennyBadger, I am the same. No social media for me, this is the only site I comment on. And further, I have a business which doesn’t have an fb page or anything. The reviews for my biz on Yelp or fb or wherever, I never engage. I see no benefit to it and my business is good and long time running.
I respect Rob greatly for doing all this and (to me at least) seeming so genuine and straightforward.
Gonna say it again. Please consider going subscription only if you stay seriously considering sitting down
Second that. I would happily pay for a subscription if it meant keeping you around. Best Seahawks source out there.
For the articles and the comments section, it would be worth a subscription to keep it going.
Man, people are taking their Seahawks a bit too seriously 😀
Don’t even touch that nonsense. Hit the delete button on those muck savages, Rob!
Well I hope that isn’t the case. I think you have some real insight on how the media works and there’s a lot of stuff you were very early reporting on. I may not agree on every single opinion 100% but oddly its the non-draft stuff I think this blog is most valuable for now. The recent Wilson stuff is a great example of that, it’s very hard to find people who will talk about it without letting pro- or anti- Wilson sentiment get in the way of their ability to use logic. This place has been a sanctuary of sanity on a lot of these difficult topics.
I think if you just shut this place down and went into a shell on discord, it would definitely come at a price to the fanbase at large. So I hope it doesn’t come to that.
Sidenote: I hate twitter and am proud to have never used it.
Winston Churchill took a lot of crap from many quarters during the 1930’s for his incessant “alarmist” warnings about certain concerning trends developing in Germany. The public largely didn’t want to ponder these things, and Churchill’s political career was sidelined until the events he warned of came to pass. Not really comparing you to the great (if imperfect) Churchill, Rob, but I’ll quote one of his famous lines: “Never give in!” It’s only football, but your measured, well-informed and frequently humorous voice is important, and appreciated.
How does the trade go down? Is Seattle calling around? If so, seems like they’d be selling low. Is Miami or Baltimore or wherever calling Seattle saying Jamal is the man who puts em over the top? Then maybe a better deal would come about. I just don’t want Seattle to be desperately trying to unload Jamal. If the right opportunity comes about, great. They can’t sell low though. It’s unfortunate they put themselves in this situation.
There are ways of getting people involved without necessarily ringing them in a sweaty fluster shouting ‘please take him off our hands!’
Let’s assume for a second that they do trade Adams. Is it most likely a draft day deal? Who do you think the most likely trade partners would be, and if you had to take a stab at the compensation what would you guess? Thanks!
Sadly the free agent safety market has been abundant with players and depressed in pricing in recent years.
Another good read
Definitely a poor trade in value but can you see PC giving up on someone he nvested so heavily in. – I’m not too sure.
If that’s the case is Adams intelligent enough to change his game to fit Seattle better as great players can do.
And what other options for a trade Wagner / Reed is that enough to get back in the dear and cap space
Of course. He’s never been too proud to move on.
I think the Seahawks know they are trading someone, they are just waiting to see whether it’s Wilson or Adams… Not sure exactly when they will know.
This is a really compelling point. I’m unconvinced they will ever trade Bobby. He means too much to this team’s leadership. If they get rid of Russ, it makes sense to pay Jamal. IMO.
Plus, I think Brooks’ emergence and play means KJ ain’t coming back. There’s just no way to justify that sort of investment after a first round pick.
I don’t see any scenario where paying Adams $18-20m a year is justified
Totally fair enough. I wouldn’t pay him that this year either. I think give him another year in the system, see how he does, if he gets injured again etc and then approach from there.
As of now, he has not justified that sort of cost, but I do think he is capable of doing so.
Rob, that’s a solid group of arguments you’assembled, the best being from the stance of considering the team’s needs.
If called upon to speculate, what timing would you guess at vis a vis draft day, and what trade partners do you see as least far-fetched?
I know that’s asking a lot, but I promise not to hold you to it.
Also, isn’t the opposite the case? Or am I just reading this wrong?
You’re right I missed a word out.
Just from a cap standpoint it kinda seems like the ‘Hawks are now in a position where they basically have to trade either Russ (heaven forbid), Adams or both. Assuming Russ doesn’t force their hand that’s the easiest choice of all time.
Agreed. Perhaps this has been Wilson’s strategy all along. Force JS/PC into choosing between Russ(and his vision for the team) or giving Adams a record deal at SS.
Rob’s air tight article makes it obvious Adams should be on the block. Miami looks like a prime trade partner- scheme wise and the draft lacks an impact safety.
Adams for #36+ 2022 2nd. Who says no?
Just because it’s the right thing to do doesn’t mean the Seahawks will do it or even consider it. I think this season has exposed Adams as the player he probably is, one dimensional with a lot of warts. He may be better in other systems but the Seahawks are working with very little leverage here, most of it self induced. How little are the Seahawks willing to take just to move off his salary and get some picks in the draft this year? If it’s a third round pick, would you still do it? We’d like to think it would be a haul but there’s a good chance it won’t.
This front office has shown itself to be one that makes ill considered choices , most due from previous holes they’ve dug themselves. To your point Rob, they SHOULD be making better draft selections than they do but will they? Is this present front office learning from past mistakes and improving each year and not making the same mistakes? Most of the evidence would say no. Then you have to figure out who is really making these bad choices, Pete or John? Is John really just a researcher presenting choices for Pete to make? Is Pete the one really making these bad draft choices, trades and free agent signings? It’s felt like despite the PR of them working together, Pete’s the one making this happen. If not, he’s not getting what he needs from a smart GM. Until they get this sorted out, improvement will be sketchy at best.
Some People Just live for reading your blog….
https://twitter.com/mattyfbrown/status/1375193847987367937?s=19
Sad
He once asked me for help with his CV and I was happy to help with that and some career advice. Not sure why he’s decided to go down the path he has on Twitter
Ah yes the “he was good but he would’ve been better if he wasn’t always hurt” argument.
My second-favorite offseason fallacy. Right after “Our kicker makes that field goal in Game A and we don’t fumble the ball in Game B and we’re a playoff team! All is well!”
This one baffles me:
” Breaks single szn DB sack record winning 1v1″
Did you SEE how many all out blitzes we sent to free him up??? Wow.
OK first of all Rob, 65/35 is worrisome because there is no other Hawks site worth being involved in. I know you’re loathe to put up a pay wall, but it really seems like the best solution. I believe you said it would cut visits by more than 50%. I’m not sure I agree but have you considered some sort of poll to gauge how many folks would pay a reasonable fee to be part of this community? I mean you may get say 300 “yes” response which means you’d likely get around 180 actual pays (just guess numbers on my part for illustration purposes). I think there’d be enough interest to make it work especially considering the amount of content you put up here. It’s not like folks wouldn’t get what they paid for. Please think about it.
As for fucking Twitter, to hell with that platform and the rest of social media. It’s the cesspool of 21st century world society. My opinion is either just quit posting or just utterly ignore the asshats that make it personal. I don’t do social media and never will.
As for email, maybe make it private for paying members only?
Seconded
THIS!!!!
Carried!
i like this idea….even charging a buck would get rid of 90% of the riff raff
Hey cha:
53rd LOL
Well laid out and logical piece Rob. You did leave out one other factor that imo also contributes to making Adams a must trade and yesterday at that, injuries. He missed 4 of 16 games last year and was ineffective in 2 others due to injury. That’s 37.5% of the Hawk games he did miss or might as well have missed, Because of the way the Seahawks use him, it seems unlikely injury situation will improve. Blitzing a 225 lb man 8 and a half times a game is a recipe for continued injury issues.
Actually he’s more like 215 perhaps up around 220 pounds nowadays, and i’m confident that stature combined with his full throttle play style has and will add to his injuries going forward. The current (with Seahawks 2021) listing of his weight is 213 pounds per multiple sources and he was listed at 214 for his draft measurements.
So the Seahawks are cutting or trading Jarran Reed instead:
https://twitter.com/jarranreed/status/1375223165253718027
Gotta pay Jamal?
They’re not even trading him.
Just cutting him.
What the hell?? At least get a 4th or 5th for him. Don’t just give him away. He still has a 5 mil. dead cap hit either way. So stupid. Even a 6th and a 7th. We have only 3 picks and we’re just letting him go. Idiots.!!
Surely he’s trolling before signing an extension tomorrow?? 🤞
Nope. Schefter says he’s off.
This team sometimes… 😡
What’s going on with no deals beyond 2023? Isn’t that what this is about? Not wanting to extend Reed beyond next year?
Is there a contract on the books that extends past 2023, other than Wilson?
Seriously?!? Someone called us a team of mercenaries a few days ago.
Really building that culture…
“Jarran, we want to convert your salary to bonus money to free up some cap.”
“What about an extension?”
“You’re cut.”
Pathetic, absolutely pathetic if they’re just cutting him.
Pulling a Raiders…hopefully
My guess is they were trying to extend him and he thought he was worth alot more than they did. So John being such a nice goody goody gm just released him rather than trade him somewhere that he might not appreciate. On second thought John may have even tried to trade him but no one was willing to take on that contract after free agency in a down cap year for the player he is.
Any way around this has been handled poorly from start to finish. A bad contract followed by trying to do something about it in this cap environment after most of the money in free agency has been spent already. Again where is the harder edged business handling of things? Where was the thinking ahead and planning/timing to rectify things before you got to the point of just releasing him like this? Poorly run NFL team.
Damn. Question, by releasing him this late into free agency, can this be taken as the team screwing the player’s earning potential or is it a nicety of some kind by ensuring he received some hypothetical roster bonus?
(TLDR – Did the Hawks screw over or help J Reed by releasing him at this time?)
Well, add DT to the list of needs, unless they’re comfortable riding a Poona/Cedric Lattimore partnership to the promised land. Skimping on the DL seems to be part of our “philosophy” now, if there is still any semblance of one.
Well that’s just swell.
I’m really hoping Sea Mode is right and he’s just being a prankster and something else is up, like an extension to reduce this year’s cap hit. We should at least get some day 3 picks this year and/or next year rather than nothing.
Schefter reporting he’s gone
Looks like a contract dispute
Well at least the D-line isn’t an important position
Not when you have the likes of Rasheem Green and LJ Collier on roster.
This is fine
Championship
I am SOOOOO glad I gave up the Sunday ticket… It seems like we’re headed to a total shhhhh show…
This is inexcusable. They will end up overpaying for someone that isn’t as good.
If they play hardball with guys like Reed and Dunlap and still play Adams $20 mil, I’m gonna get an aneurysm.
I’m right there with u leo
It has been my contention all along that is what will happen and I stand by it. Obviously want to be wrong.
WTF? Why are they so loathe to give anyone an extension?
Reed made as much sense as anyone on the entire team!
This is really shitty. In particular if they outright cut him for nothing.
Stupid move
“@AdamSchefter 9m
Jarran Reed is expected to leave the Seahawks, per source. They could try to trade him or release him. Ending still to be determined.” Similar to Rapoport. Well at least it leaves an opening to be traded and get a pick or some picks, even if they’re low day 3 ones.
To just cut him makes 0 sense. I’m guessing they asked him to take a paycut and he said no. Then 0 trade interest.
Just proves how right on point your piece was Rob. The Adams trade just keeps on hurting this team.
Hello Mr. Collier being expected to take over Reeds Role. Unless Dunlap is the next move; I really don’t get it.
So much for all these people thinking Reed would bring additional draft capital.
Releasing Reed just is infuriating to me.
More likely they just wanted a restructure to free up cap, and Reed decided to use his leverage to get a new deal.
Restructure = extension, even if it’s just with a voidable 2022 to spread out his $8 million salary.
So another piss poor contract bites us in the rear. This contract was a bad overpay to start with(that i heavily disliked immediately) so now we have to swallow a 5 million$ dead cap hit and create a hole in our defense in doing so – all because they were desperate to not let Reed get to free agency and let him/his agent bully them into a bad contract. At least we can assume they won’t trade our second round pick to fill this latest hole with someone else’s underacheiver/problem child.
Hey Rob. Not sure if I missed an earlier question, reply or statement about this. On YouTube you have a video titled “Seahawks sign Kerry Hyder & Benson Mayowa: REACTION” that I’ve been looking fwd. to watching since yesterday. It says “Waiting for Rob Staton March 24, 2021 at 6PM” on my TV, and 7PM on my computer. That was yesterday. Did you mean to say the 26th, or was Robbie or whoever not able to join you?
We had to cancel, apologies.
Can you send me the link to that so I can delete it?
Is Pete going to run a 3-4 and let Jamal be the focus of the defense?
Reed and Ford are two good starting DTs. The depth is terrible.
Now they’re only going to have one good DT (Ford). How is that going to work?
I don’t get the “plan” anymore (not that I ever did these past few offseasons).
“Making crap up as they go”
There is no plan Bobby. The two Alpha Dogs they drafted to lead the defense in the post LOB era were Reed and Clark. Both played well and looked like good team mates / leaders. Both are now gone.
Appears to be no plan whatsoever
Yep. There is no plan.
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1375228159910682625?s=19
Well that’s OK, we’ve got amazing DT depth
And we can just draft a replacement
Easy
So we trade a 5th for Gabe Jackson but can’t ven get a 7th for Reed? Boy JS is a master negotiator.
It’s OK — when they trade Russell Wilson in 3-4 weeks time, the penny will drop
nO, WE doN’t nEEd tO trADe RuSs wITH alL ThIS caP sPaCe wE FReeD uP frOM ReEd…
What are the cap savings if they cut Gabe Jackson during camp? That trade made zero sense to me. Pay him $9 mil but cut Reed to save $?
No Reed? That’s pretty rough. Could this be part of a plan where they are switching to a 3/4 kind of a defense? What would that even look like?
I like Poona Ford but he’s not a 3-4 NT. And while Mone may be more like a 3-4 NT, he’s not starting material.
I hope that’s the case, but if they were really planning to switch to 3-4 why would they approach Reed to restructure instead of just trading him? Seems like they were caught unawares (yet again) when Reed didn’t cooperate and the relationship just collapsed.
Alienating your core players to save pennies on the cap is TIGHT!
John: I told him to restructure or we’d cut him, no way on an extension.
Pete: Ok. What did he say?
John: He said – Cut me.
Pete: Whoops
John: Whoopsie
Maybe somebody will pony up a 6th or 7th for him.
unfortunately, my emotions would be much better expressed with a GIF right now.
Wonder how Jarran Reed looks playing next to Aaron Donald
Part of me hopes to find out. This decision doesn’t make any sense to me. I was actually pretty happy with the off-season until this report.
Right dcd2. At least we were more pro-active than last year and made a few good moves. Now we’ve lost our 2 best pass rushing DL in Dunlap and Reed.
Part of me would like to see Reed flounder in trying to find a contract that he thinks he deserves. This all pretty much started with his self – aggrandizing texts of how disrespectful 10 million or less would be in his media pre negotiations back when. It would seem he thinks extremely highly of himself(and is all about the monie$) and for John and Pete to be so quick and decisive in moving on from him, well it sure seems to back such an assumption up. If it did’nt leave such a big hole in the defense i’d say good riddance.
They’ll do anything to avoid trading Adams. Ugh.
Sadly I could see him on the Rams or Az.
#LetRussWalk
Is the team being sold next year? What logical reason is there to be so stingy on the years?
The only other thing that makes any sense is a tear-it-down-to-the-studs approach for next year. Trade RW and start from scratch… why does a 71 year old coach want to do that?
Anyone have a theory on why the REFUSE to sign anyone long-term?
Wouldn’t want to lock up anyone long-term before the cap spikes next year… that wouldn’t be cool with the players…
And yet, we see other teams around the League signing players to 4+ year contracts.
Sorry, it was meant to be sarcastic
Oops I suppose that’s obvious. Sorry
Just trying to put some pieces together. They’re clearly trying to free up some cap space because this situation with Reed arose from them trying to restructure his contract, which apparently they need his permission to do. But it blew up in their face because he said extend me or lose me.
They could free up cap space, a lot of cap space, by restructuring Wilson’s contract. And they don’t even need his permission to do that. But they didn’t. Instead they had to mess with Reed and now he wants out.
Anyway, it seems that they’re avoiding restructuring Wilson’s contract. Which makes sense if they think he might yet be traded.
Only way this makes sense is if they are doing something for the pass rush w this space. I wouldn’t give Reed a big extension either – he’s solid, but uneven.
And with all the free agents D-lineman out there (i.e. Geno Atkins) for whom you don’t need to give up a pick – it may not be so easy to get something back for him and his salary.
Agree that it feels like a crappy end to a solid stint in Seattle – which sort of sucks.
Rob, you piss me off at times, but not for your opinions or analysis of the Seahawks. I’m so sorry people say stuff about your kid…what you report is awful. People that don’t bat an eye or jump on a keyboard over systemic racism, white supremacy, the treatment of refugees, etc in their own country getting worked up to the point of that kind of evil over pointing out the flaws in a sports teams management is sickening.
That stuff is why the founder of Seahawks Addicts gave up his blog. Now he does golf blog, last I heard….yuck!
You are right on with your criticism of Seattle. It took you years longer than I to reach this point, I’ve been ready to see Carrols gone since the last year with Cable. I’ve tried to give them chances, but they have long since gone off the rails.
Dumping Reed is asinine. I’ve had enough with Carrols not valuing DT, and paying so much for LBs and SS….
I think you should do Internet Radio. I’d rather listen to you than Cowherd or Rome. But whatever you do, don’t let the insane ruin your joy. Do what you must, but don’t let them win by hanging on past the point you can take, either.
Outstanding post
White supremacy?
Lol
If you’ve ever had to deal with those creeps, you wouldn’t think it’s funny Poli. I have. This is Robs blog, and it’s not about those issues, so I won’t take it any farther.
Kudos to Reed for saying No.
Oh please
https://twitter.com/hawkblogger/status/1375237095942328321
Bwa ha ha ha
Stopped listening to that a while ago… Evan is such a waste of space…
Rob – you deserve much better. It’s sad how people are upset with the team being terrible and take it out on you. Too immature to face the reality of it all.
I wonder how Russell will respond to Reed’s tweet.
Well, off to bed. Tomorrow’s gonna be a fun day… 😬
What you guys don’t understand is Jamal Adams can play Defensive Tackle too. Everybody just needs to calm down and trust the plan.
How do these moves inspire the team? Seriously. What are you thinking if you’re in the defense?
We lose Dunlap and Reed, but somehow some of these writers still think we improved the passrush. This is getting ridiculous
If this allows them to sign Dunlap then I’m all for it. I honestly don’t think Reed was ever that great but woof …. LJ collier and Poona are not the answer either.
Either way, We’re still back to needing to trade Adams. There’s no scenario where keeping him makes any sense.
I love Dunlap, but having him and Reed with the depth we aquired yesterday would have been great. I hated the Adams trade day 1 and it only continues to get worse.
But, but, but 12 and 4!!! In PCJS wee trust.
Can’t say anything that isn’t ultra positive or you’re a bad fan. Blah, blah, blah……………….
“Dianna Russini goes on ‘Get Up,’ and she’s like, ‘Listen, everything you heard is still real,’” McAfee said. “Russell Wilson’s team, from her sources, on ‘Get Up’ she said, Russell Wilson’s team not happy with what the Seattle Seahawks did this free agency— 75 to 80% of that offensive line that he doesn’t like are coming back. So all these things are still being said. Still wants to be traded.”
“He gave permission to his agent to allow four teams to be announced as possible trade locations,” McAfee said. “Dianna Russini said he’s open to other teams as well.”
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/russell-wilson-trade-seahawks-qb-still-wants-be-dealt
Well well well and the other shoe drops. If indeed what she says is true and Russ has warmed up to being dealt to other teams then my previous thinking after Chicago’s offer was more in line with where things really stand with Russ and Pete. Russ is not happy with this team’s construction and direction. Pete knows this is an untenable scenario under his ‘positive team atmosphere’ philosophy. Chicago offered a poor deal and Pete and John still took 24 hours to turn it down – showing their hand with how badly they actually want to move on from Russ.
I think the things holding up a Russell Wilson trade are fair compensation along with a need to have a tenable qb in place. Easier said than done. Chicago can’t muster a good enough compensation package. The Jets are (wisely) going to leverage Darnold for the highest possible return and may very well be hesitant to let him get to the Hawks(as they hold our first round picks coming up). The draft looms but how do we get the cart before the horse in trading Russ for the proper draft pick(s) to select the rookie qb we’d want?
A tough situation. A bad situation. Yet another situation the team was put in by Pete Carroll.
Step 1: Jacksonville needs a safety and we have him, trade Adams for their late first rounder and second (25 & 45)
Step 2: Swallow pride considering what we gave up.
Step 3: Draft Ojulari or Williams if RBs are going quickly with 25. Get an edge like Joe Tryon at 45.
Step 4: Trade back from 56 and pick one of Quinn Mienerz or Ben Cleveland along with Kellen Mond as Russell Wilsons successor.
Step 5: Select Olaijah Griffin at 250.
Step 6: Get Jarran Reed back because letting him go was a bonehead move.
This is going to be a real ugly season even if RW stays. With a good DE, Reed is an above average DT, he just needs a running partner. This team is really starting to turn into a train wreck.
Swapping Reed for Dunlap, 2 years $16.6M, 8.5M guaranteed.
Happy to have Dunlap back. Hopefully now we atleast get a pick for Reed and it’s an AFC team
Yeah I’ll miss Reed.. but atleast we’re not losing both him and Dunlap
Problem is(was i guess), a somewhere above average DT who’s largely ineffective without ‘help’ from other players on the line is’nt worth anything close to 14.5 million dollars. We overpayed him to the point to where we were forced to get rid of him – all at one of the worst possible times. All in line with being part of your train wreck sadly.
Dunlap back
Wtf? I go out for a walk and now Reed is out. Getting ready to just say burn it down. OMG
Now the front office is getting smart with their own players. It’s over. I am logging off from seahawks for a bit. Front office is clearly prideful and blinded by hubris. At this point it’s just unattractive to look at.
To clarify, not being able to trade Reed, is abject and unforgivable failure.
They have till 1pm tomorrow to trade him. If they don’t trade him they could still resign him like they did Dunlap.
Resigning him will not happen if he gets released. He is all about respect and getting top dollar$ so there’s no way he’d come crawling back to us of all teams for less.
That’s what many said when Dunlap was released
Not at all. It’s been widely reported/known that the Hawks and Dunlap had a gentleman’s agreement in place to where he’d be released freely from his contract before free agency to see if he could get a big deal. Both sides moved forward with this on good terms and after he did’nt get the bigger contract he happily came back to the Hawks on a good deal for both sides.
Rob / the field – do you think there is any chance Jamal Adams accepts a contract at less than $18mil/year and if so, at what number do you think keeping him would make sense? Seeing Dunlap take what I assume is less money to stay with the Seahawks got me thinking that perhaps Adams would do the same. He seems to like playing here, was ecstatic about making the playoffs/being on a contender, and has the chance to build upon his records, which he may exceed with a healthy year and equal number of blitzing opportunities, which seems likely with KNJ still the D-Coordinator.
Some other commenters have mentioned two picks within the first three rounds as a fair trade and I generally agree (maybe with the addition of a cheap player that is likely to make the roster at a position of need). If the Seahawks come to the same conclusion about his value/cap hit and execute a trade at a much lower price one year later, doesn’t that make it unlikely that another team will conclude that he is worth $18mil, thereby lowering his next contract ceiling, especially with the cap reduction this year? Assuming this is the writing on the wall and Adams sees it, with greater clarity than Clowney at least, could this result in him taking $13-$14mil/year or a shorter deal and keeping on the Seahawks? Or is the assumption that he will get $18/mil either from the Seahawks or another team one way or another?
Thanks for the great work, Rob. Sorry and annoyed to hear of all the backlash you have to live with. I have been on the “trade Adam’s” bandwagon a long time. The trade seemed like a solution to a problem we didn’t have. Safety was Nowhere near our biggest need. I’m frustrated by the media being blinded by the 9.5 sacks while seemingly failing to grasp what we gave up by having to set the plate for all those blitzes and giving a free pass on the lackluster coverage. I am further perplexed by those who assume we can just dump KJ (or Bobby) to help create cap space. I keep reading how Brooks can replace KJ. Can someone explain how this would work, because once Irvin was out, Brooks was already starting along side KJ and Bobby. Given that they used a # 1 pick on Brooks, you have to question how much upside potential they envision from Barton. Yet those who tout replacing KJ or Bobby with Brooks never address that issue. We are in for a drop on capability if we lose LJ now.
I think it could be a scheme fit if they tried.. carrolls defense is more of a hybrid 4-3 that can mimic a 3-4.. thats why they love linebackers and edge rushers in the “leo” spot..
A trade wont happen for the simple fact petes always going to be optimistic and provably believes a full offseason and training camp will improve adams’ effectiveness for him..
Im mostly just tired if the bandaids theyve been putting on lately.. with all the drama this off-season it might have been their chance to go full reset.. but now theyre gonna cut jarran reed and borrow against next years cap..
Love the analysis, Rob! A safety that struggles in coverage is a liability, and if we can get a decent return, I’m all-in on a trade. Hawks’ mgt have robbing Peter to pay Paul and then not getting anything when the bell tolls. I hate that!
It’s time to make that trade and get future draft choices, which teams may be more inclined to do. If the new OC has a new offensive scheme in mind and players don’t fit it, trade them for future choices. For example, DK Metcalf is an absolute stud mismatch and RW favorite, but imagine the return on a wide receiver that doesn’t fit the scheme. We will go 9-7 next year, and the situation will be obvious to even Pete and John. Time to rebuild. Stop trading for then letting go rental players. Store up great draft choices and get the best players available v. best guesses to fill needs. Go back to 2010 thinking.
Sounds like what the Seattle Mariners did…
I really, really don’t think they’ll trade Jamal this year. Something Rob said on the podcast got me thinking though. If trading Adams is more about building towards the future and less about making a run in 2021, then the future pick (which is usually discounted) could be just as important.
Houston doesn’t have a 1st this year. What about their 4th this year and a 2022 first?
Maybe the Lions? They have the Rams #1 next year, so the same format as above, going for Detroit’s native pick? Dan Campbell makes a splash by getting a ‘top 100, all-pro safety’ and someone like Devonta Smith this year.
Again, I don’t think he’ll be traded, but Detroit/Houston could very easily be picking in the top 5 next year.
For what it’s worth, Adams blitz success rate was #2 in the NFL last season. And on most of those blitzes, there was a blocker assigned to Adams. It’s fine to criticize the trade or the player, but to be fair, Adams is an elite blitzer.
But how do you define having a blocker assigned? Does the running back trying to pick up the blitz work as having a ‘blocker assigned’? And what if that running back is crap in pass pro, which many are?
Because you don’t need to be an X’s and O’s genius to see that on a lot of his pressures, he moves up the LOS pre-snap. Unlike in the Gregg Williams/Todd Bowles schemes where you never knew where the pressure was coming from in New York — more often than not just watching at home on your TV, you could tell when Adams was going to blitz. He’d move up to the line and charge into the backfield off the snap.
It’s also very clear that the Seahawks used Bobby Wagner a LOT to help Adams. Wagner blitzed 100 times last season. 100 times! As Hugh Millen explained after the Rams playoff defeat, so much of this was to create openings for Adams with Wagner sitting in the A-gap.
If you’re creating ideal opportunities for Adams to blitz as a free runner off the edge, with only a covering RB or TE in protection, with Wagner supporting him with a complementary blitz, wouldn’t that have a positive impact on ‘blitz success rate’?
As Millen said passionately, Wagner should probably go up to Carroll and say — I’ve been here a decade. Why don’t you ask him to run into the brick-wall that is the interior O-line 100 times and I’ll get all the glory rushing free off the edge collecting sacks?
If you’ve got your linebacker and safety blitzing a combined 198 times in less than a complete season for both, but your sack percentage is worse than when you blitzed literally half as much in 2018, doesn’t that count for something?
And is a great blitzer, if that’s what he is (I remain unconvinced), worth $18m a year? Especially if we also acknowledge that his coverage grades last year were abysmal? And that he’s never been a player to collect picks/turnovers?
That’s before we even get into the injuries and the seeming unwillingness of the Seahawks to sit him down when injured, costing them two embarrassing touchdowns in two games against the Rams, where Adams basically ducked out of the tackle because he was hurt.
The Hugh Millen video is in this article by the way: https://seahawksdraftblog.com/why-the-seahawks-should-trade-jamal-adams
I would recommend everyone watch that video.
I can’t really quantify better than saying #2 in the NFL at blitz success rate. That’s for all NFL positions not just safety. It’s fine if you see something different, but it matches the eye test for me.
Wagner blitzing, and to a lesser extent Adams, was largely a product of the Seahawks base four pass rush being arguably the worst in the NFL pre-Dunlap. Once Dunlap came in Seattle was able to run their normal defense a lot more comfortably. It’s pretty common to blitz multiple especially when your front four was THAT bad.
Seattle was one of the NFL’s most injured teams last year by starter games lost year. Rightly or wrongly, I think Seattle’s sense of being up against the wall health wise led them to gamble (and lose) on Adams health in the playoffs. It’s unfortunate.
And to reiterate, I don’t mind that you have a strong opinion on trading Adams. There was a point around mid-season last year where I thought pretty similarly. The 2nd half of the year changed my mind.
I do think a trade of Adams this year is basically zero, and unless things go really really wrong in 2021, I think he’s probably extended. I’m just trying to save you from pulling your hair out a little bit by helping to explain what I believe is Pete’s view on the situation to the best of my ability to guess.
I’m not pulling my hair out (not that I have much left to pull out).
I simply have an opinion on what’s best for the Seahawks
I do not believe that is paying Adams $18-20m a year and being hampered in the draft
I’ve neither asserted a trade ‘will’ happen or voiced any anger that it won’t.
I am purely and simply saying I think it would be madness to make such an investment in Jamal Adams
That’s good then. I’ve seen some people online drive themselves literally insane by pushing for football moves that were never ever going to happen. Just didn’t want to make sure you weren’t heading down that road.
It’s not so much that I see anything different. I just wonder if it’s fair to question what goes into being #2 in blitz success rate? For example, does it take into account whether your team mate is also blitzing 100 times to shift protection, affording you an advantage rushing off the edge? If you get 9.5 sacks does that influence the numbers, regardless of whether you blitz 8.2 times a game or not? Does it account for a ‘blitz’ if the quarterback runs out of bounds and you’re the nearest guy (as happened vs the Jets) and you get a cheap sack?
Is that just it though? Because as Hugh Millen opined, they blitzed Wagner as much as they did to shift protection to create openings for Adams. He actually said, explicitly, that Wagner could complain to Ken Norton about how he was being used to create easy wins for Adams.
Perhaps — but that doesn’t account for them making the same decision in week 10 and Adams bailing on a similar goal-line tackle giving up a touchdown. They did it twice, in two separate games, coincidentally both against the Rams. Both heavy defeats.
It almost feels to me like the massive investment spent on him means they feel obliged to use him at all costs. Which isn’t healthy. You should never feel like you have to play a player who clearly isn’t right. They did it with Adams.
How do you block quote?
“It’s not so much that I see anything different. I just wonder if it’s fair to question what goes into being #2 in blitz success rate? For example, does it take into account whether your team mate is also blitzing 100 times to shift protection, affording you an advantage rushing off the edge? If you get 9.5 sacks does that influence the numbers, regardless of whether you blitz 8.2 times a game or not? Does it account for a ‘blitz’ if the quarterback runs out of bounds and you’re the nearest guy (as happened vs the Jets) and you get a cheap sack?
On top of that, is the blitz success rate ranking an adequate enough statistic to push back against some of the other concerns raised?”
Correct, it doesn’t account for ease of sacks. It’s probably fair to say that Adams had an easier path to sacks than Wagner did, for example. But Adams was also an elite blitzer before coming to Seattle as well, so it’s not like Adams can’t do anything without Wagner. To an extent both Pete and Gregg Williams created situations to aid Adams as a blitzer. But there’s also a good reason why Adams gets this kind of treatment and no other safety in the history of the league has, it’s because of his obvious talent.
“Perhaps — but that doesn’t account for them making the same decision in week 10 and Adams bailing on a similar goal-line tackle giving up a touchdown. They did it twice, in two separate games, coincidentally both against the Rams. Both heavy defeats.
It almost feels to me like the massive investment spent on him means they feel obliged to use him at all costs. Which isn’t healthy. You should never feel like you have to play a player who clearly isn’t right. They did it with Adams.”
Pete has been known to start alpha type guys in the past when hurt when they insisted on playing. Kam played XLIX on a bad MCL (made public later), Sherm played with one arm for the NFCCG and XLIX, the Wagner 2017 game, etc. So I don’t think it’s about justifying investment. Pete just doesn’t think that way.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Pete handled Adams with kid gloves in 2021. At the very least, if Seattle is playing in a meaningless final regular season game, I’d expect Adams to be pulled pretty early to avoid what happened last year. But I guess we’ll see.
It’s easy for me in the wordpress admin section because it’s all laid out. I think Sea Mode knows how to do it for just comments.
Well, maybe. Gregg Williams blitzed him 90 times in 14 games though in a scheme designed to blitz a ton, to the extent he rather pathetically gave himself the nickname ‘Doctor Blitz’. Plus, in Williams scheme he consistently shows pressure from multiple spots and then backs out. You never know where the pressure will come from — OLBx2, MLBx2, safetyx2 CBx2/3. Seattle simply didn’t do this. I would argue they telegraphed most of Adams’ blitzes.
Seattle blitzed Adams 98 times in 12 games, a higher rate than Williams in a non-blitzing scheme traditionally. Their blitz percentage doubled in 2020. At one point he was blitzing 10 times a game. That reduced to 8.2 times per game at the end but I think in part that’s because they played WTF, the Jets and beat-up San Fran.
I think the Jets blitzed him because Williams/Bowles love creative pressure. Seattle blitzed him to compensate for a crap pass rush and because they needed to justify the investment.
And I don’t think Pete and Ken Norton know how to blitz anywhere near as creatively as GW or TB.
I see your point. But he needs to learn from this with Adams. As far as I can tell, neither Sherm nor Kam gave up easy TD’s. Wagner had no business playing in 2017, that was a huge error.
I definitely agree with you that Adams is schematically a better fit for other defenses and other DCs. Williams even joked about it when the trade happened. That Seattle found a comfort zone with Adams in the 2nd half, it was by no means that best use of Adams possible in the NFL. Ken Norton being over his head at DC doesn’t help.
“I see your point. But he needs to learn from this with Adams. As far as I can tell, neither Sherm nor Kam gave up easy TD’s. Wagner had no business playing in 2017, that was a huge error.”
Exactly. Sometimes Pete gets away with it, sometimes he doesn’t. I think because Adams is a DB like Kam and Sherm, he thought he could get away with it. It was a miscalculation though because Adams is so physical and downhill that he much more resembles Wagner than a true DB, so it’s not surprising in retrospect that injuries took so much out of him as it did to Wagner in 2017.
As far as trading Adams. If you were the GM, and you traded Adams for a reasonable amount, I’d be fine with it. Because I’d trust you to spend that money on the Thuney’s or Conklin’s of free agency when the chance arrives. And I’d trust you not to reach by entire rounds with early picks. Unfortunately, I just don’t have that same trust with PCJS right now. Look at what they did with the resources from the Clark trade. It was an utter waste. I’d rather keep Adams than repeat that.
I understand that. Frankly, I don’t trust them either.
But I’d rather take the risk that they might rekindle the magic because I see a roster with holes everywhere from 2022 (see my new article today). And I simply don’t think a.) Jamal Adams is worth $18-20m a year or b.) this team is remotely close to a Super Bowl, with or without him.
Well you have more optimism in them than I do. And I have more optimism in Adams than you do.
It’s not even that I have optimism in them.
I just don’t Adams is worth $18-20m so to me, you might as well just move on. Especially given the potential black hole at LT, C, WR, DE etc that is looming
Maybe PCJS could rekindle the magic if they completely started over. But I think as long as Russ is here, they will be in Saints-mode of constantly running on a hamster wheel to be good but not good enough.
I’m increasingly open to a more dramatic shift in the roster, including at QB if needs be.
This team isn’t a proper contender. Pretending we are year after year is a waste of time. Might as well get on a different path
If somehow the offense could play like they did in the first 5 game last year for an entire season, I could see an MVP Russ carrying this roster kicking and screaming to a SB, much the same way that a historic defense carried a sagging offense late in 2013 and 2014.
So I “get” why PCJS act as though we are close.
But not only is that unlikely to happen, but it wouldn’t even be an ideal SB team. We would be punching our SB ticket as the next 2013 Broncos, 2015 Panthers, or 2016 Falcons.
No edit button, I suck.
Adding on to the injury thought. It reminded me of that awful Rams game in 2017 where Wagner should not have been out there, the decision to play a badly injured player highlighted the value of that player schematically in the coaches mind. Wagner was the glue guy of that 2017 defense, Pete probably felt he had no choice but to take a health gamble there.
Similarly, I thought Adams kind of took on that glue guy feel late in the year. Pete had a healthy safety option and could have sat Adams but didn’t. So I think Pete probably got the same sense that I did as far as Adams making the engine run.
I’ve never bought into that personally.
When players become the glue it’s often just a natural thing. They develop, grow, become the mainstay. We saw that with Kam and to an extent Marshawn.
I don’t think you can ‘trade’ for that. And I don’t think Jamal Adams is that
Yeah, they didn’t trade for that. He wasn’t that on day one. It’s something that is developed into, just like you said.
In my opinion, I thought he developed into that 2nd half last year.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that. At no point did I feel Adams developed into any kind of leader or emotional force.
I did think he did a very good job at applauding opposing players after they made a play though
To be fair, he was 2nd team all-pro. Which to me carries a lot more weight than a PFF ranking. I’m not saying you are totally wrong, but I felt that if I didn’t speak up and say something, that the discussion would lack even-handedness. BTW I hope you saw my message above about your future at SDB and potential decision to leave the blog.
As Hugh Millen says though (I’m quoting him a lot) — when you break the sack record for a DB — manufactured or not — being named 2nd team All-Pro is a given at that point. However well you’ve played overall.
And let’s be right here — Cole Beasley was named 2nd team all-pro last year.
So it’s not a great benchmark.
No problem at all. I’m happy to debate this
Yeah thanks for the discussion, it probably went about as well as it could.
Just dumping this fascinating thread link here to add to the convo.
https://twitter.com/futbolguysguy/status/1341491877913178114
And look where Wagner is on the first four sacks and what he does, plus the seventh and eighth sack.
The ninth sack is a load of bollocks really.