This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
“We underachieved in 2023. We all did. Now we’re in a situation where we need to get better. We overachieved in 2022, and we underachieved in 2023 and everybody recognizes that. It’s time for all of us to look into the mirror, myself included, and move forward.”
John Schneider, with those words – spoken in his first press conference after Pete Carroll was fired – set in motion one of the most impressive offseasons in Seahawk history.
Gone was one of the longest-tenured coaches in the NFL. His replacement? A brilliant young tactician without any head coaching experience at this level.
The Offensive Coordinator who frustrated fans and players alike? Also gone. An innovator at the college level with no ties to the current administration was brought in to take advantage of all the weaponry the team had acquired.
The roster? Reshaped to fit their vision. Gone are expensive players who lacked the ability to dramatically alter the outcome of the game. In their place, a rededication to adding depth and talent to the trenches, along with an aggressive mentality that both incorporates intelligence and rises above mere bravado.
The attitude of the whole organization has been shifted as well. Players are held accountable, as are coaches. Excellence in the fundamental aspects of the game is the expectation, not some higher goal to be spoken about motivationally.
Will all these offseason changes bear fruit?
We are about to find out.
First up, the Denver Broncos are in town, themselves having undergone an organizational shakeup.
Gone is Quarterback Russell Wilson, leaving behind a whopping $85 million dead cap number.
Gone are talented players they could not afford.
Wide Receiver Jerry Jeudy and Center Lloyd Cushenberry each signed $50+ million contracts with other teams. Four-year starting Linebacker Josey Jewell signed with the Panthers. Pro Bowl Safety Justin Simmons was cut and signed with Atlanta.
In their place are rookie Quarterback Bo Nix, Wide Receiver Marvin Mims (a second-year player who was more of a returner than a receiver last year), Center Luke Wattenberg (who has one career NFL start), old friend Cody Barton at Linebacker and Safety Brandon Jones, who lost his job at times in Miami due to coverage issues.
The talent pipeline is thin in Denver. Pound for pound, they might be one of the NFL’s least talented rosters.
Their saving grace might be that they have one of the NFL’s best coaches in Sean Payton. He guided the Broncos from an awful 0-3 start (which included an embarrassing 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins) to a respectable 8-9 record, which included wins over Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo and Minnesota in consecutive games.
Therefore, despite the clear talent advantage the Seahawks have, nobody should be taking this game lightly.
How can the Seahawks start their new era with a win? Let us dig into the watch points.
Use the Offense to Control the Game
The Seahawk offense is loaded for bear with talent at the skill positions. They are deep and each player brings something different to the table.
The offensive line – while admittedly being the biggest concern on the team – has made an excellent addition in new Center Connor Williams. He will help stabilize the interior.
Meanwhile, the Broncos featured one of the NFL’s worst defenses last year and yet retained Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph. Due to the constraints we mentioned, they were not able to add significant talent this offseason, and in fact lost some of their better players. They are desperately needing tremendous steps forward from their younger players.
The skill advantage is clear. This is where the Seahawks should plan to exert their will and control the game.
How? Let’s look at Joseph’s numbers as a defensive coach the last five seasons and see what we can discern:
As you can see, Joseph’s defenses have rarely reached the top half of the league in defending the run game. Last year, they were dead last in terms of Yards per Attempt allowed. Even if you scratch out the game where Miami ran for an amazing 350 yards, the Broncos still finish in the bottom five.
Oddly enough though, twelve teams faced more total rushing attempts than the Broncos did last year. When you are getting five yards per carry, why would you not simply lean hard on the run game to trample your opponent?
The Seahawks have a dynamic rushing attack and they need to use it liberally in this game. It gives the offensive line confidence at a very early stage, keeps the clock running, allows the defense to rest and maybe keep some of their tricks hidden for other teams, and opens up the passing game via play action.
In Week 15 last year, the Detroit Lions used the running game against Denver to great effect, rushing 28 times and throwing 36 times. They gained 185 yards on the ground, using the Thunder & Lightning team of David Montgomery (17 rushes) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 rushes). They also gained the team ten first downs and broke four tackles.
After Montgomery tenderized the defense, Gibbs slashed through them. Look at all the explosive runs on his chart:
It is not hard to envision Ken Walker having exactly this kind of day against the Broncos defense. Particularly if they employ Zach Charbonnet to break some tackles and get some tough yards.
Take a look at that Vance Joseph chart for his stats on the pass rush he employs. Notice a pattern? He is one of the NFL’s heaviest blitzing coaches. The Seahawks saw it all the time when he coached the Cardinals.
And yet, is it effective? No. Particularly not last year. Joseph sent blitzers at the fifth-highest rate, and yet created one of the worst pressure rates, only three steps up from the worst unit in the NFL.
However, Joseph’s blitzes are not always designed specifically to get to the passer. They are used to create confusion. To get the Quarterback guessing about who is blitzing pre-snap, and then reacting to who is actually blitzing on the play. It is frequently used as a distraction technique, to disrupt the play and win the down. Sacking the quarterback is a bonus.
Successfully combating blitzes is something the Seahawks need to excel at. Or at least return to their 2022 form. In that year, they had a 65.8% completion rate when blitzed and averaged 5.65 yards per play. In 2023, it was more ‘feast or famine’ with passers completing 59.8% when blitzed, but with 6.36 yards per play and they gained first downs at a better rate.
How can they be better this year? One factor is by having good First and Second downs, which can dramatically reduce the high-pressure Third downs.
Another is by something I have seen in training camp: This creative Mike Macdonald defense has thrown blitzers at the offense in scrimmages from every angle imaginable. From standard pre-snap looks to bizarre concoctions that the Quarterback has to decipher and respond to in real time.
There will not be anything the Broncos throw at Geno Smith that he has not already seen in camp. Likely several times. Can that experience benefit him to a degree that it can alter the outcome of the game?
Finding the hot read or dumping the ball off to a waiting running back will be very important to keep the offense on track.
A bit of good news there: the Linebackers are awful in coverage. Alex Singleton was picked on in the passing game as much as any Linebacker in the NFL, with an ugly 85 targets. He gave up an 80% completion rate and 8.4 yards per catch.
Cody Barton was no better in Washington, with 47 targets with a 78.7% rate and 7 yards per catch.
If Ryan Grubb can find a way to get them in coverage, they should exploit it all game long.
Defend the Entire Line of Scrimmage – Particularly the Middle
Sean Payton’s offense does two things that are difficult to defend: The Quarterback is coached to process quickly and get rid of the ball in a hurry to nullify the pass rush, and they regularly use screen passes as a run game substitute.
Seeing as this is Bo Nix’s first NFL game, we can expect several screens as a way to ease him into his rookie season. Last year, Russell Wilson threw passes to receivers behind the line of scrimmage 27% of the time – a pretty odd number for Wilson considering his profile. What did Nix do at Oregon last year? Glad you asked. The same 27% of his pass plays were to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. He will have no problem operating this part of the offense, and will likely do so better than Wilson did, as he is simply a better fit.
Players will need to be ready for this, having practiced noticing the signs of a screen (like linemen letting rushers come free right off the snap) and pursuing the receiver with all due vigor.
What about the quick passing game? Corners need to respect wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, but if they can jam or disrupt a route even slightly, that could knock the timing off and make Nix have to think on his feet. Most NFL Quarterbacks have trouble with finding their second or third read (just ask Jared Goff), let alone a rookie in his first start. It might be worth occasionally gambling on getting beat to try jamming their receiver to knock the offense out of alignment at a key point in the game.
Something to keep in mind though: Nix has the legs to get out of trouble if his first read is not there. If the edges are cleared out by a pass rusher going too deep, he will take off and run and gain yards that way.
Look at this play in the preseason against the Packers.
The Broncos come out with five receivers and an empty backfield. Also notice Left Tackle Garett Bolles is way off the ball – a sure flag if he does it in a real game.
At the snap, the inside rusher on the left side retreats to a coverage spot, practically turning his back to Nix, and Bolles (using his position advantage) routes the pass rusher upfield.
Notice in the next picture the pass rusher is nearly 10 yards upfield now.
This creates a wide open edge for Nix to scramble and pick up yardage.
Nix will take advantage of holes like that all day if he has them. The Seahawks need to coach their edges to maintain their gaps and use good judgement about when to really step on the gas in the pass rush.
Does that mean they should not try to put pressure on Nix? Of course not. But that pressure needs to come from the middle of the field, be it from standard rushing of Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed or Byron Murphy, or from blitzing Devon Witherspoon or one of the Linebackers. Why?
One of the reasons Bo Nix was so effective in the preseason is he had a clean pocket and got into a rhythm with it. Take the shotgun snap, 3-step drop, 2-steps forward into the pocket as he assesses and then pass. If he has no ability or time to get into that kind of a groove, his processing will struggle. As will his mechanics. He has good feet and can throw on the run, but he has a tendency to get out of alignment in the pocket and make inaccurate throws because he is not square to the receiver. Pushing the middle of the field with intensity will force this kind of reaction from him.
Luke Wattenberg will be in his first game as the starting Center at the position, and Bo Nix rarely took snaps from the Center at Oregon – preferring to work from shotgun – so there may be some inexperience there that the Seahawks can take advantage of. True, he will be flanked by $120 million of guard with Ben Powers on his left and Quinn Meinerz on his right, but this could prove to be a real area of trouble for the Broncos.
Speaking of shotgun, when Sean Payton called for the Quarterback to take the snap from under Center last year instead of from shotgun, 72% of the time it was for a run. With Payton likely wanting to ease Nix into his career, when we see him line up under Center, it may be a tell to the defense that a run is coming.
Win the Unknowns of Week One
There are always surprises in the first week of the season. New players, new plays, wrinkles teams have been working on all offseason in order to catch the opposition off guard, things like that.
The Seahawks have to win their share of the unknowns.
Primarily, that means winning the turnover battle (that impressive four-game winning streak by the Broncos last year? They were +11 in turnover ratio!), playing clean Special Teams and not committing penalties at key times in the game.
Good coaching and solid fundamentals go a long way towards being successful here.
How will Riley Moss fare at Cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain? He only has 23 snaps of NFL experience, but appears to have won the job in camp. Surtain is one of the best and Ja’Quan McMillan is a very solid nickel corner. Will the Seahawks try to exploit that matchup?
What will Jerome Baker look like at Linebacker, having missed so much time in the offseason?
Can George Fant be more than just a fill-in at Right Tackle while Abe Lucas heals? Can they run their full offensive complement with him on that side?
Will Dre’Mont Jones have an impact on the game in this new defense?
Will a Bronco receiver other than Courtland Sutton rise to the occasion when called?
They will need him to. Mike Macdonald has a knack for keeping the opposition’s top receiver weapon in check. In 2022 and 2023, he faced Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens and Amari Cooper a total of thirteen times. Result? He held them to an average of 4.3 catches for 57 yards and .3 touchdowns. Now that is impressive. How did he do it? One of the ways is by using deception in a technique described in this video.
The Seahawks need to turn an impressive offseason into a successful season on the field. That may not come in the form of winning every single game, but playing tough, fundamentally sound football that makes use of the talent on the roster. That will go a long way toward restoring team pride and fans’ confidence in this organization.
