This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
The Seahawks started off their new era with a win against Denver that was both comforting (a return to a smothering, good-tackling defense) and concerning (the all-too-familiar offensive line issues that threaten to keep them from progressing).
What will be interesting to see with this rookie coaching staff is: how do they react to last week’s game in their planning for the Patriots this week? Do they rely more on establishing their running game in the early going? Can they employ some passing concepts that keep the Patriot pass rush at bay, helping their unstable offensive line?
Or do they carry forward with a plan that trusts that another week of practicing together (particularly the three interior players) will yield at least middling results?
We will see.
The Patriots are an interesting challenge. Coming off a four-win season which led to a parting of ways with legend Bill Belichick, they might seem like a team rebuilding from scratch. The truth is, they – like the Seahawks – have some great pieces to work with as they forge a new path.
Last year, they had one of the league’s top defenses and a fantastic rushing game on offense.
Usually, that adds up to a pretty solid team. So how did they end up picking third overall? Their passing game was dreadful and they were one of the worst teams in the NFL in turnover ratio at -11.
They moved quickly to remedy that, drafting Drake Maye with their top pick and signing Jacoby Brissett – the NFL’s active leader in lowest career interception percentage – and adding Ja’Lynn Polk at Wide Receiver and some very nice building blocks on the offensive line in the form of Caeden Wallace and Layden Robinson in the draft.
The plan has already proven fruitful, as they beat the Bengals last week on the strength of two turnovers, 170 yards rushing, Brissett making no major mistakes and the defense limiting the powerful Bengals offense to just 224 yards.
They will want to replicate that exact model this week against the Seahawks.
What keys do the Seahawks need to be focused on in order to win?
Win the Little Things
When you go on the road, in a different time zone, to play a team you do not come across very often (they last played New England in Week 2 of 2020 – the thriller where they stuffed Cam Newton at the goal line to win it) and are still finding your footing with a new coach, the best thing you can do to help yourself win is to play a clean game.
More so when you are playing the Patriots, a team with a profile we mentioned above. They very likely will not help you beat them, so you are going to have to do it yourself.
The Bengals had sequences just before and after the half with three key errors that ended up being the difference in the game.
The first: Joe Burrow lofts a perfect corner pass to Mike Gesicki and he gets his hands on it but the new Replay Assistant properly challenged it and it showed he could not complete the catch:
Bengals fans, Mike Gesickis touchdown should not have counted, it clearly hit the ground and he did not complete the catch.
Play better next time is what they need to do. pic.twitter.com/HcAcJp0rho
— Patrick LB3 (@Patrick_LB3) September 13, 2024
On the very next play, Burrow hits Tanner Hudson on a beautiful play call and as he is gliding toward the end zone, he allows the ball to get away from his body for a split second and Kyle Duggar takes advantage with a strip at the one-yard line:
WHAT A PUNCH OUT BY KYLE DUGGER
📺: #NEvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/nSE0lmY3TX— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
The Patriots recovered, marched down the field and kicked a field goal. But just as important, they burned the last 5 minutes of the half off the clock and did not allow Burrow another shot to get on the scoreboard.
Coming out of the half, the Bengals forced the Patriots to punt. Returner Charlie Jones fumbles and the Patriots recover, flipping the field. The offense burns some more clock before settling for a field goal.
Two Bengal turnovers in back-to-back possessions deprive them of a sure touchdown, and lead to six Patriot points.
The Patriots won the game by six points.
It’s nice that an underdog story like the Patriots’ was a Week One headline but an inch more attention to detail by Cincinnati and we are talking about an unimpressive but very acceptable Bengals win and talk of the Patriots not being dynamic enough on offense dominates the week’s discourse.
One of the reasons the Bengal offense was not very productive? They only had eight possessions (for reference, the Seahawks had 14 last week vs Denver). With so few bites at the apple, it raises the margin for error to uncomfortable levels.
Penalties. Completing crucial catches. Avoiding turnovers.
The Seahawks have several resources for crucial catches but we all know one who stands above the rest. I think that category is in sure hands (pun intended).
What about penalties and turnovers? That leads us to our next point.
Win the Battle of Poor Offensive Lines
As frustrated as we are with the Seahawks’ offensive line performance – particularly in pass protection – in Week One, New England’s was worse.
Both of these teams are banged up and still finding their footing. Which offensive line plays better will likely determine the winner of this game.
Each team tackled their problem in different ways and had success: The Seahawks balanced out their play calling in the second half and employed motion and quicker passing. The Patriots? They ran several two tight end sets, bullying a weak Cincinnati defensive line into submission with pure strength.
On offense, the Seahawks will need some stabilization. The Patriots defensive line – even without star tackle Christian Barmore – looked fantastic, as second-year player Keion White had a monster day with 2.5 sacks, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble.
The Patriots unlocked the key to success on defense, getting pass rush with just four players at several key points in the game. True, they did not spend the whole day in the Bengal backfield but they struck when it mattered most and allowed the excellent backfield lots of help, with a flood coverage of seven players to deploy.
Brass tacks: The offensive line looks to have another challenging day against the Patriots. Procedural penalties, holding penalties and pressures on Geno Smith that can lead to turnovers must be kept to a minimum.
This will be a play calling challenge of very interesting proportions for Ryan Grubb. If the pass rushers do not cause problems, the backfield (one of the NFL’s best) likely will.
There are a couple of ways they can attack this superb defense.
Firstly, script up some plays to get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. The Patriots love to play man defense and defenders following receivers can open up some pockets of opportunity the Seahawks can attack. All of Seattle’s running backs are versed in catching passes and gaining yards and are ready to be deployed.
Have a look at about 1:54 in this video. The Bengals take advantage of the Patriots’ aggressiveness and set up a nice little dump off to Zach Moss for 12 yards. Notice the Patriots have blitzed to the other side and the Bengals have a ‘hat on a hat’ downfield in blocking.
That is the one and only time the Bengals attacked them in this manner. Last year, the Patriots conceded 6.8 yards per catch and three touchdowns to running backs in the passing game.
The Seahawks can use this as a pressure release valve when they need a few yards in some key spots.
Secondly, if the Patriots are intent on flooding the secondary with bodies, the Seahawks can take advantage by using the inherent awkwardness of too many defenders in too little space.
Have a look at this play and try to focus on the route concept and not the result of Hudson being stripped:
.@KingDugg_3 forces, @MarcusJonesocho takes OFF!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/F3INDDu2nI
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 8, 2024
Hudson is in motion pre-snap and settles behind teammate Andre Iosivas in a bunch formation. The Bengals have Gesicki take his man and run straight at another defender, opening up a pocket for Hudson to get into. Bunching pre-snap shields him from his cover man (Kyle Duggar) and he is wide open and has a direct route to the end zone.
I have no trouble believing the Seahawks can scheme up similar plays, sacrificing route runners to open up opportunities. In fact, in training camp scrimmages, the Seahawks loved to line up D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this way on the right side of the formation, with Metcalf drawing focus with his size and speed and Smith-Njigba taking advantage of the open space.
This game has been viewed as a potential slugfest and with good cause. But the Seahawks do not have to concede that their passing game is going to be limited.
With some decent runs and a few of these clever pass concepts proving successful, they can make the defense more pliable and open up the field a little more and allow Geno Smith to do what he does so well – throw deep with accuracy.
Make Jacoby Brissett Beat You
Rhamondre Stevenson had a fine game Sunday, rushing for 120 yards on 25 attempts. He let the Patriots play a balanced game that ate the clock up, covered for a poor pass-protecting offensive line and did not make Brissett play hero-ball.
However, it should be noted that Cincinnati had one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses last year and did little to substantially improve the situation in the offseason. They did draft two defensive tackles in April but neither played in Week One.
Stevenson had a field day, feasting off of poor tackling and bad angles taken by defenders. He had an impressive 3.0 yards after contact, easily the best day in the NFL for running backs with more than 20 carries.
How can they keep him in check? By making sure they are sound in the very middle of their defense.
Have a look at his run chart from Week One:
That is an awful lot of running behind your center and guards.
The Seahawks can combat this by employing Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy in their interior roles. Also, it appears to make sense to give Jonathan Hankins more than the 17 snaps he had last week. Particularly when the Patriots try their two tight end run packages. The snaps will likely come from K’Von Wallace and/or Dre’Mont Jones.
That does not automatically mean the Seahawks will keep him bottled up. But if they continue their sound tackling and ‘everyone swarm to the ball carrier’ energy we saw last week, this could force the Patriot offense to put more of the game in Brissett’s hands. That is a good thing for the Seahawks.
What kind of player is Brissett?
He has carved an interesting career in the NFL, starting for five different NFL teams and serving as a backup for a sixth.
Teams like him because he plays smart. He does not turn the ball over and he can gain some yards with some well-placed scrambles.
So why is he on his fifth team in five years?
He does not win you games.
He is best utilized when he throws about 20-24 times and just keeps the offense on schedule. He rarely makes dynamic plays and that low turnover percentage comes with a price: He has a career 61.3 completion percentage. Throwing away the ball instead of forcing things keeps things on schedule but the defense does not have to adjust for his ability to attack the whole field with his arm.
Look at his passing chart for last week:
Look familiar at all? That is very similar to Bo Nix’s performance last week: Getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible, lots of throws behind or around the line of scrimmage, with true shots downfield unsuccessful. Also, running for his life when his offensive line was overwhelmed.
If the Seahawks can keep a lid on the running game – particularly in key spots, like third-and-6 or so – the pendulum of success swings heavily in their direction.
At that point, using coverages to take away easy targets (or swarming to keep the YAC as low as possible) will prove a very successful way to attack this offense.
Why?
When Brissett gets the ball out of his hands in under 2.5 seconds, his career completion percentage is 68.7 – an incredible number.
Over 2.5 seconds? When he has to process and get to his second or third read or throw off-balance? It plummets to 55.9%.
As for clutch moments, he is one of the worst in the NFL. He has a 46.3% completion rate in the red zone (where the windows are much, much tighter) and on third downs his rate is 57.4%.
We all know the reason the Patriots employ Brissett. He is a steady placeholder quarterback that will not win you games but also will not lose you games. Drake Maye needs development and keeping him from having to play behind the current offensive line is more than wise – it’s an investment that is as sound as any in the NFL at this point.
Keep the Patriots from their plan of attack: Running the ball liberally and having Brissett distribute safe but short passes to the playmakers.
Disrupt it. Make them change it and go to a less-desirable option. It is very doable with this new defense that Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks have cooked up.
A quick note from Rob — tonight’s post-game live stream will take place later than usual. It will begin approximately 30 minutes after the Bengals vs Chiefs game has finished.