Today I was joined by Robbie Williams & Adam Nathan to discuss all the big topics surrounding the Seahawks, free agency and more. Watch the video below.
I’ve posted a number of new articles this week — be sure to check them all out and let me know your thoughts in the comments section.
Cool. Hoping for an appearance by Robbie’s dog too.
Rob, have you seen this PFF video highlighting various draft prospects? Not saying they’re sneaking a peek at your notes, but astoundingly similar names highlighted at similarly high levels relative to you.
https://youtu.be/_Xrycy64rAs
The more I think about Quandre Diggs, the more concerns I have about making him a free agent priority.
1-The Injury. He should experience a full recovery in time to play this fall. But I have zero confidence in the Seahawks’ training staff. The last 2-3 seasons have been an abomination. It’s not too farfetched to see him miss camp, preseason and a few weeks of the regular season. All the while, we’re forced to hear PC defend a terrible defense with the following cycle:
A-we’ll be better once our star FS gets back on the field
B-we’re not very good because our star FS needs time to get up to speed
C-our defense was bad this year because our star FS got hurt and ‘we’ll get ’em next year.’
2-The cost. The Seahawks have the most expensive safety in the NFL already. Having two in the top 10 most expensive is just not a roadmap for success, unless you have a defense stacked with young talent at CB, LB and the DL. They don’t. I have very low confidence the Seahawks will cut Wagner loose. Having so much cap room for Adams, Diggs and Wagner is untenable.
3-The scheme. Diggs was invisible for the first half of 2020, as this defense couldn’t rush the passer to save their lives and Jamal Adams was a) blitzing 10-11 times per game and then b) hurt. Massive disappointment was expressed that the 2019 spark Diggs brought to the defense was gone.
In 2021 the Hawks chose to reel Adams back and have him covering more of the field instead of constantly blitzing. They also had the brilliant idea down the stretch to play Carlos Dunlap more. That coincided with Diggs’ much improved play.
But now all early signs are pointing to the Seahawks having Adams return to a more aggressive role in 2022. What does that mean for Diggs? Will he have another stretch of games where he has very little impact because he is covering more of the field while Adams goes on safari?
And even if that is not the case, will having $50m invested in the back of the defense while having only say $20-25m invested in the DL be a good investment? We’ve all had a front row seat to what a poor pass rush and an expensive back end results in. Do we have enough faith that Hurtt and Desai can do that much better than Ken Norton did with the same personnel strategy?
I think the Seahawks need to prioritize the pass rush and the OL and settle those pieces first before going after Diggs. This might have a double benefit of improving the team more greatly, and allowing Diggs to explore his market. He might find out with his injury and age, there isn’t a massive push to ink him right away, and could give the Seahawks some leverage.
It feels like Diggs could be one of those guys like Olsen, Hollister, Mayowa, Irvin, etc. The Seahawks rush to pay or retain them at the expense of (what should be) higher priorities getting away, and it could really cost them come November when a key part of their team isn’t performing.
Don’t worry, if the Seahawks start using Adams more aggressively, it just means he will reinjure his shoulder sooner.
But seriously, i dont think its smart to resign Diggs either.
He’s a solid safety, but not elite.
Throw in the age and injury, and chances are good you wont get a return on the investment.
He should be replaceable.
If he’s not, thats another edictment on JS.
He is replaceable, they all are. There are some good safeties available this year in FA so I hope we at least explore some of those players.
How long did Tyler take to fully heal, same Q about Dak. They both had similar injuries. If I remember, Tyler said it took him almost the entire year to get back to normal. If we can get Diggs at a “prove it” type of deal I’m all for it, but not full price, at least not this year.
You may have said “seriously” about the 🦚 shoulder bit I actually think k that’s likely and after he’s out for the season around week 10 the Seahawks will move to a more conventional approach with their Safeties.
I agree, Big Mike.
I fear that his shoulder will always be a ticking time bomb going forward.
I think Adams knew it was last year, and that’s why we saw so many “business decisions”.
It may also be one of the reasons that the Seahawks used Adams so differently last year…playing him deeper and not around the line of scrimmage where the bigger collisions usually happen.
There is a reason why, historically, safeties don’t blitz 11 times a game.
Go figure.
Feel terrible for the guy, but hope his market is cold and we can buy low
There’s a a scenario where we would need to replace the Wagner/Diggs leadership
Maybe Calais Campbell
I’d argue Bobby Wagner’s leadership is declining as much as his play is.
Teammates aren’t stupid. When they see Wagner hesitating or giving half-hearted efforts on the field, his currency as a leader of men is falling like an anchor. Doesn’t matter if PC raves about him and the press is super-excited to find out what Wagner’s Book of the Week is.
I linked this play in today’s stream.
https://youtu.be/r9ZCKXpxvt0
Wagner is hesitant to engage. Taylor flies past him and levels the running back. Watch Wagner after. Does he yell and scream and pound Taylor on the back? Nope. He shows nothing. Mayowa does. Brooks does. Wagner just goes back to the huddle with no emotion.
It’s just one play but it’s emblematic of why Wagner is no longer effective as a leader or a player.
I vividly remember that play.
It stands out because of the stark difference seen between Wagner’s “effort” and Taylor’s, all in the span of a few seconds…
… but there are many plays like that, where Wagner drifts and waits, rather than attacks. Or seemingly avoids the clear path to the ball carrier, instead taking the wrong angle or half heartedly allowing himself to get blocked.
It difficult to watch.
Watch this one
https://twitter.com/49ers/status/1444802258453995522
BW contacts Deebo at the 3 yard line. Deebo scores.
Unacceptable.
Ugh… yep… I remember that one, too.
He reads/diagnoses the play right away, as you’d expect.
But then he just sort of… stops at around the 3 yard line, rather than make a beeline to Samual.
Then it’s like he’s hoping/expecting the Reed makes the tackle, and when he doesn’t, he has lost all forward momentum and his half hearted attempt at a tackle was simply limp.
Part of Bobby’s play has to be a result of him playing way too much. He looks kinda of like a NBA player trying to make it through the long season, at times.
Thanks, guys, for the great conversation. The discussion around Wagner reminds me of a point that Matt Mikolas made on the pod during the season. 2021 was the first time that Wagner played without KJ Wright. This seems to offer at least some explanation for his hesitancy and lack of aggression. Not only was he being tasked with too much responsibility (as evidenced by his playing 100 per cent of the snaps until his injury), he also didn’t trust the defense. Changing scheme likely makes the issue worse.
Totally agree get Campbell and Chandler Jones in FA then the rebuild plan starts to take shape,
Good Stuff.
When you consider all of the championship teams that had $30m invested in 2 safeties, the list gets pretty short.
Personally, I’d rather the Diggs’ money be added toward Chandler Jones and Calais Campbell deals and then find a safety elsewhere. I mean, don’t the Seahawks employ the DB-whisperer?
Yeah great thoughts cha. I’m with Gross, spend the money on the DL.
Just thinking out so….
But what if there’s a chance that PC is not only not a db whisperer but maybe actually bad at finding let alone developing db’s? What if kam, earl, and sherm were just good?
I know you must be reeling from reading this. And I apologize for even suggesting it.
What about Walter Thurmond, Jeremy Lane and Byron Maxwell?
And to a lesser extent DeShawn Shead, Jerron Johnson and Ryan Neal.
I’ll give you lane. Thurmond bordered on a bust. Maxwell was sort of good but the team didn’t feel the need to retain him. Juries out on Neal. No drop off from one of tge worst trades in history isn’t a glowing endorsement. Shead was good. Johnson unremarkable.
I don’t really see it as development into great players.
I see some legends a few solid players, and a ton of whiffs because you are omitting griffin, the four safeties that didn’t do anything, not keeping witherspoon who turned out okay this season.
I’m most worried about the news they’re trying to sign him before he gets to free agency. It’d be so dumb for them to overpay now, cause Diggs may find a cool market.
It’s a terrible year to he a free agent safety, there’s tons of them coming out. Maye, Bates, Mathieu, Woods, Hooker, Williams, Harris and Reid. They’re not all gonna get big money, and you’d think the top deals will go to Bates and Williams.
If they’re set in bringing him back then I’m ok with it, but let him see what’s out there first. He won’t cost 15 a year once the first wave is over.
History shows and proves that it’s generally stupid to give big 3rd contracts to defensive players.
The exceptions to the rule are generally the HOF talent guys like Bobby Wagner. But even a future HOFer like him isn’t worth the full extension he got and is a liability in terms of measuring what he provides on the field in comparison to the salary cap.
I am fine with defensive guys on their 3rd and 4th contracts if they’re merely short term deals that don’t break the bank. Players naturally need that carrot at the end of the stick though.
Diggs and Wagner are the canaries in the mine. If they are both back, and at full fare, I feel like I can skip having to watch most games.
I continue to remember after Jarran Reed being let go Diggs really saying WTF you need to be able to get pressure with your front 4.
He’s right & likely the best way to do it is by cutting Wagner & letting him go as well. Then use that money on fixing that front 4.
I think 13.5M franchise tag price is about where the Seahawks will go $ wise on Diggs, but I still think it’s far too much.
We have too many other needs.
It’s a miracle…
They meet with the media every year at the combine so this was expected.
I hope it’s the cutouts.
They need to step their game up. Let’s have Tupac-style 3D holograms.
That would be tremendous.
I’d also approve of those AI robots…”We are…pumped…and…jacked…looking forward to…getting back to…the way we…know how…to…play…the game Pumped…and jacked. Pumped and…jacked.”
STACK OVERFLOW ERROR.BORING PLATITUDE LIMIT EXCEEDED.
🤣🤣
Ooh look at Condotta breathlessly announcing something that happens every year. The funniest part is that these bobos in the Seattle media seemingly don’t even realize they’re being manipulated and used by Pete.
Has Condotta tweeted about how unusual it is that Russ hasnt had an end of season press conference?
The one thing that may concern is are bigger name free agents are going to want to play for Seattle if they don’t know what Russell situation is? Maybe there mind set is I signed the Seahawks contact I didn’t sign up for teddy or Tyrod. They’re agents are probably bringing up that same question who’s there QB one
This is a good listen. Dan Graziano of ESPN (who has sources in Seattle) speaking on the Wilson situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk6DaPpF718
From about 8 mins in
And John Keim, ESPN’s Washington reporter, claims Wilson was doing ‘due diligence’ on the Commanders ‘a week or so ago’.
As soon as the Rodgers situation is resolved, this will be interesting.
“due diligence” is an odd turn of phrase for this situation.
Unless, of course, Russ is still of a mind that he may be moving on this off season.
Perhaps a leak like this is posturing, and Russ’s way of putting pressure on the team to make substantial moves in free agency?
When was the last time Russ finished an interview with “go hawks”?
Well yeah — but we know this already.
He’s very clearly keeping his options open. I just think he knows Carroll is minded to hold on to him. So all he can do is keep his options open. Do due diligence. Await to see what happens in free agency.
And if free agency goes poorly, and he does request a trade, it pays to have done your homework.
100% makes sense for Russ’s camp to do their homework. But in my opinion, it keeps going back to what Graziano is saying. Until a team can answer what SEA can do at QB, not a ton to talk about from the SEA’s perspective.
If Russ does force the issue, he risks being the villain. Hard to see him doing that.
Should be a fascinating couple of months.
Well yes, these are the arguments I’ve made
I answered why he is still doing due diligence
He might be the villain in Seattle but he’d be the savior in DC
Maybe so.
But knowing Wilson as we do in Seattle, it’s 100% clear to us that RW will not burn any bridges on his way out. And a big part of why he’s staying quiet right now is exactly that.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
No hopes here for that, I can just see where if he has to force his way out a franchise and fan base will roll out the Red carpet and imo would negate any negative Seattle press
Then, with respect, you don’t know Wilson as well as we do.
Because there’s no way — no way — he’s burning bridges in Seattle.
As I’ve pointed out a lot recently, this is partly why he’s so cautious about forcing anything. Image is huge to Wilson and having built up so much of his brand around Seattle (and with a lot of business and personal interests in the city) — he’s not going to burn that down.
He wants to have his cake and eat it to an extent. He wants Matt Stafford’s ‘cheer for him from afar’ type parting.
I think fans on other teams need to be aware of this.
Excellent Podcast by all 3 of you guys. Loved it. Hoping the Seahawks surprise us with an early aggressive Free-agency.
In regards to what would it take me to take Russ.
I’ve had two deals I’d take for quite a long while while now.
Rob your deal with the Commanders was very close to mine.
The Philly deal I’d be ok with is picks 15, 16, & 51, Hurts, Dillard, & their 2023 1st.
The Washington deal I’d take in a heartbeat is picks 11, 42, Young & Payne, & their 2023 1st & 2nd.
Obviously I want to see them build around Wilson, but if the Seahawks anounced either of these deals It would be difficult for me to say anything negative.
I’d prefer the Washington offer even without a QB in place; & have had fun playing with the draft & roster building around that trade. Especially since it fixes you D-line & PassRush.
Regardless if they do trade Wilson it has to exceed the Chicago deal. Both the deals above do that.
Swap out Minshew for Hurts on your Philly deal then I’m in.
Minshew leading the Hawks against the Rams, Cards, and Niners will secure us nothing except more high draft picks – why would PC and JS sign up for that intentionally?
One trade scenario I’ve contemplated is sending Wilson to Las Vegas for Derek Carr, Clelin Ferrell, and picks: 2022 1st and 2nd and 2023 1st and 2nd. Carr gives the Seahawks a chance to compete now, Ferrell badly needs a change of scenery, and the draft picks give you the opportunity to retool the roster this year and next. Not ideal, but something that should be seriously considered if and when Seattle loses free agency.
Rob I quick question for you a lot of Seattle Seahawks fans think that Duane Brown is coming back I really hope so but what if the Cincinnati Bengals call Duane and offer him a good size contact. They Cincinnati Bengals have plenty of cap space and what do they need offense line .plus brutal honest true is Cincinnati has a better chance of going to super bowl next than Seattle..if I am the GM of Cincinnati I am going hard for o lineman this off-season.
Rob, thank you so much for the stream. I really enjoy these conversations and… As a big Dan Carlin and Hardcore history fan, I have absolutely no problem if you choose to make these streams even longer. To our conversation about the Seahawks? Bring it on.
I am in agreement that you not want to see Russell treated. However if he was to be treated I think there are some factors that need to be considered. First, quality quarterbacks are hotter than real estate on the West Coast ( or Denver for that matter.) That is to say, the “fair” offer should not be considered. To win a quarterback, you have to go way above and beyond a “fair” asking price. The standard, three first round picks it’s probably in the realm of “fair.” Not Enough. It needs to hurt.
I live in Denver, and these people are absolutely desperate. And frankly, if we’re going to give up our franchise quarterback and suddenly be just like the Denver‘s, Carolinas, Philadelphia’s, Washington DC, (good teams w/out a qb) they need to compensate us above and beyond.
Denver: 3 first rd picks (one decent and two likely late) Surtain, Williams and Meinerz. Well a lot, it actually doesn’t hurt Denver as much as one would think, but it gives Seattle capital as well as at least one or two blue chippers and a path to a devastating run game.
Philadelphia: 5/ first rounders. Three mid round first round picks does not impress me so tack on likely be late first round picks for the next two years. Then throw in Hurts or Minshew or both.
Was- Three first rounders, three second rounders, and Chase young
Not sure if the other interested teams can meet used types of standards. But that is the type of deal Seattle should be looking for. If If these teams do not like the asking price, then we simply would tell them to enjoy their continued mediocre status.
Rob I am probably looking into this too much . But Karl Scott the new defense hire for the Seahawks was on the coaching staff at Alabama in 2018 and guess what Jalen Hurts was a QB at Alabama in 2018. Could Pete get in film room and watch every single game Jalen played for in Philadelphia.Then bring in Karl and seat him down and ask everything he knows about Jalen Hurts is he coachable. Was he good teammate .how did treat training staff could I get pick 15 and 16 this year and there second round pick this year . next year number one pick and Jalen Hurts. Hmm maybe Philly could throw in a 5 rounder as well they have 3 of them this year
No
PFF on Harold Landry: “2021 has been a breakout season statistically for Landry as a pass rusher, but no player has benefitted more from cleanup and unblocked pressure opportunities than he has. Landry is a reliable every-down starter, but he’s not going to single-handedly change the fortunes of a pass-rushing unit.”
Lot of people said the same about Trey Hendrickson a year ago
I didn’t see much of Landry last season so I can’t comment too much on him. I did see my fair share of Saints games because of Fantasy Football reasons haha.
I saw quite a bit of Hendrickson during his last season with the Saints. A bunch of his sacks and pressures did not come from mop up duty. He beat his man mostly on speed to power moves. The most important thing was he showed he was clearly progressing and on the rise. I was not surprised by his big contract and I thought he was completely worth it based on what I saw that season.
If Landry showed the same type of process then I would be happy to pursue him.
But that’s the point isn’t it?
Everyone is reacting to one persons opinion of Landry’s play
And a year ago Bengals fans were complaining about losing Lawson and going for Plan B
Completely. He checks a lot of boxes that you’re looking for when shelling out a big contract to a player.
– He’s young
– He has a high pressure rate
– The stats are there
– The physical attributes are there
I’ll have no problem pursuing him. The article has some warts to its arguments against Landry. If we have Landry and Taylor, you can’t double team both. Plus with a 3-4 look, it’s hard to designate double teams like a 4-3. The only worry can be his win rate. That’s something you can look at and raise an eyebrow. Overall, he’s someone I want. The process is right.
Now on the flip side, someone that gives me all sorts of bad juju is Rasheem Green. He’s an example of someone you don’t pursue based on stats and age. He is also young but has a horrible 6.7ish pressure %. Unlike Hendrickson, more snaps didn’t lead to better play. I think it just further exposed him as someone that is average and extremely inefficient. The process isn’t right here.
Maybe this is correct in Green. Or alternately maybe don’t have him out there 80% of the snaps while cooling Dunlap, robinson, hyder, and Mayowa. It would be one thing if it was 80% of snaps and Seattle wasn’t setting records for defensive snaps. He may not be worth it or Seattle may be running him down into the ground since he’s the only one that can apparently go more than 50% of the time since he’s a young man and the defense is generally too old.
I agree with that counter-argument. He did play a lot…But to run a really low pressure rate in the 6%ish is just not good. Almost every other defender on the Dline ran a better % but Green played the most snaps?
I do want him back because of the potential but I’m not convinced he’s going to turn into anything. He should be better in a lesser role. Then we run into scheme problems. Still, I much rather have Robinson and Dunlap to rush over Green.
So i’m convinced now it’s he is playing too much. We focus on his pressure rate but they are playing him like a multi down tackle and not as any kind of edge rusher in terms of volume.
Green had 67% of snaps the most of any of the linemen. 48 tackles. 6.5 sacks. 4 passes defended.
Ford: 65% 53 tackles. 2 sacks
Woods: 52%
Mayowa: 46%
Hyder: 45%
Mone: 38%
Dunlap: 38%
Robinson: 31%
This is bad coaching which I hope is fixed this year. If a player is less effective then how are you leaving him out there for the most snaps? Dunlap i get because of age. But how is robinson never getting in? Ridiculous.
Sign me up for 10-12 cleanup sacks, pressure was lacking last year but so were the finishes on the pressures we did create.
PFF’s scores are great. Their data-tracking in game situations is awesome.
Their offseason roster and player articles are horrible. Their position rankings are silly. Their ‘team needs’ pieces display no clear understanding. They’re almost of the level of 12thmanrising.
Another question for you Rob as far as the draft is concern can you rank the importance , the game tape or Senior bowl week and the combine.is there one of those 3 options that you counts more then the others. Does the player position add into the factor.
It all matters significantly
1a: game tape. There’s a ton of clues to be found in this. Take CB’s. Do they stand around? Initiate contact? Do they track the reciever but never get their head around? Same with a lot of the LB discussion. Rob has shown a ton of players that fly to the ball carrier vs. whatever is happening with Wagner. Does a Running back have great yards? Are those always outside? Pretty hard to replicate in the NFL where the lamest, lumbering Dlinemen is still in the top 1% of 1% faster and stronger than virtually all players in college.
1b. Senior bowl/combine. Numbers at the combine don’t lie. Rob has detailed for years the “forgotten,” numbers: 3 cone. 10yrd split. A 1.5-1.59 split can be the deal breaker for certain positions. I love the Senior bowl. I think it’s value is how do players come to play. Travis Jones per example. A good sized, well built DT runs wild on players from myriad programs and regardless that he played for do nothing Uconn looks like a player that can go in a new environment.
Rob – what are your thoughts on Cordarrelle Patterson? Upside hedge against Penny injury and a swiss army knife that PC has always loved. Think his price will be reasonable? Thanks.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/a-free-agency-draft-plan-for-the-seahawks
Baseball used to be America’s Pastime. Now the owners are players are having a contest to see how far they continue to kill the sport. Pretty frustrating for someone who loves both football and baseball pretty equally.
It seems they have decided they really want to bust the union.
I wish there was a feasible way for the players to form their own league, or for a USFL style competitor league to evolve out of this.
Ali Marpet retires
Ali Marpet! One of Rob’s blog favorites. Good for him.
Yep. Good for him. He has money, won a Super Bowl, and now it’s time to focus on being healthy the rest of his life. Can’t put a price on your body/health.
What day is Aaron Rodgers Decision Day?
Seems like everyday is Aaron Rodgers Day these days.
And I for one am farking sick to death of it.
Despite the ups and downs at the Sr. Bowl, this is impressive fwiw:
I can’t remember a more divisive time for Seahawks fandom. The recurring Russell Wilson drama combined with the Wagner situation, and “running it back” again with Pete are tearing a of of fans I know apart. It’s a constant argument with friends and coworkers, and it seems like most people are either pro-Wilson or pro-Carroll but not both. And the guys I know who have this sanctimonius, sentimental opinion of Carroll, also feel the same way about Wagner. Winning can cure most ills but until that happens I view all this as a major sign of bad leadership. And about winning: is there anybody worth mentioning besides Pete and JS who honestly thinks this team, as currently constructed, can compete for the division title? Because I don’t think they can. And if they can’t aim for that, they should probably trade Wilson now and get on with it. I don’t exactly support that, but if it comes to pass that Pete and John don’t have a solid plan, this will all have been wasted.
Grimly this may be the correct assessment. To that end hopefully if that dominoe falls then it ushers in a new regime post-haste. I’m trying to be optimistic with the bew hires but the same FO that thought it was somehow one safety away from contention probably isn’t turning wilson picks into gold anytime soon.
Or she could’ve fired Carroll
The ‘ultimate combine preview’ for 2022 is written and ready to roll tomorrow.
Can’t wait. One day I’ll remember all the key numbers for testing.
Rob your recent articles has generated lot of interest in draft. I hope we do trade players for the draft picks not other way round.
Can’t wait! Always appreciate the crazy amount of work you put in. Any changes to the OL section this year in light of the possible changes to a more Rams style lineman?
If I were the Hawks owner and I decided to staus quo or run it back…..The entire front office and head coach would be on a common thing the players deal with……..A ONE YEAR Prove It Deal…
PROVE that you can make tough decisions like cutting Wagner.
Prove that you can draft prven college players, not some “who in the F**k is that player.
NO ridiculous trades saddling the franchise for years.
GET involved EARLY in free agency and spend the money on proven players.
Lastly…Do your job CORRECTLY or Sayonara.