Richard Sherman doesn't approve this projection
The Seahawks will be extremely unlucky if it plays out like this.
But it isn’t impossible — and it might not even be that unlikely.
As everyone keeps saying this is a deep draft class (as you’d expect when 98 underclassmen decide to turn pro). Yet there isn’t an endless pool of talent. The depth on the defensive line is particularly weak. Anyone wanting an impact pass rusher better get in there quickly.
All of the talk at the moment is about the quarterbacks falling like they did last year. There’s only one tight end likely to go early while nobody expects a running back to be taken in the first frame.
We could see teams being quite aggressive to:
a.) fill needs
b.) tap into the top echelon of prospects
Here’s what I’d consider to be a ‘worst case scenario’ projection as far as the Seahawks are concerned:
There’s a lot of potential Seahawks gone by #32. A heck of a lot.
Provoking factors
— Teams picking in the top ten haven’t gone after the quarterbacks. All of the media reports in the last two weeks have been about teams waiting to draft a QB. If this is more than a smokescreen (and only one QB was drafted in round one last year) this isn’t good news for any team that already has a franchise quarterback. Ideally you’d see the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Minnesota grabbing QB’s early, pushing players at other positions down the board. The first QB taken in this projection is Blake Bortles at #20 — and even that assumes the Cardinals are prepared to draft Carson Palmer’s eventual replacement in round one.
— When projecting 7-8 receivers to be drafted in the first round, it’s not because of need. It’s all about quality. They are just better than players at other positions. I could be wrong, but I think teams will be falling over themselves to get a receiver from this class. Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham Jr could easily go in the top-12. The two teams taking them here — Tampa Bay and Tennessee — get impact players with a ton of upside. If we see four receivers going as early as this, don’t be shocked when Kelvin Benjamin, Cody Latimer and Brandin Cooks also go in the 12-23 range. These players are too good to fall into round two.
— It’s a really poor draft for pass rushers. I’m not seeing what a lot of people see in Timmy Jernigan, Dee Ford and Kony Ealy. I think there’s a really good chance all three players are available in rounds two or three. So who’s the next best edge rusher after Anthony Barr (who leaves the board at #10 here)? It could be Demarcus Lawrence or Marcus Smith. Dallas is in desperate need of further additions to its defensive line. They might have consider reaching to get another pass rusher. If they don’t take one at #16 they could miss out altogether. And a historically bad defense in 2013 could get even worse. If the likes of Barr, Lawrence and Smith are gone by #32 I think it makes it incredibly unlikely the Seahawks will draft an edge rusher in round one.
— Offensive tackle remains a premium position and every year teams go after the top prospects very early. In this projection there’s a consistent flow of tackles leaving the board. Three go in the top ten (Robinson, Matthews and Lewan), three more go between 11-20 (Martin, Moses and Kouandjio) and Joel Bitonio is taken by the Panthers at #28. All of the teams are filling needs.
How likely is this?
This is an extremely negative projection for the purpose of the article and it’d be a pretty remarkable hand to be dealt. I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to play out like this. Even if it does, there are still attractive alternative options.
I think it’s very possible that a high number of offensive tackles will be gone before #32. Last year nine offensive linemen were taken in round one — I’ve only named seven here. There are enough teams in the market for a tackle and the Seahawks could run out of first round options. Even clubs like Baltimore and Miami who made free agent splashes at left tackle will consider further investment on the right side.
I’ve felt for a while that Seattle’s best chance at drafting an offensive lineman in round one will be if teams undervalue Joel Bitonio.
The cause for a receiver will be aided if Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham Jr don’t go as early as the top-12. They’re both top prospects so it could happen. But I could also see both lasting into the teens.
I suspect a player like Cody Latimer will have a great deal of appeal to the Seahawks given his combination of explosive athleticism, strong hands, size, ability to compete for the ball in the air and run blocking. I actually think it’ll be a surprise if he lasts until the #32. In fact I’d say Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks and Donte Moncrief are more likely to be available later in round one.
It might be a stretch for all four of Benjamin, Cooks, Moncrief and Latimer to be gone by #32. And yet all four are good enough for it to happen.
One thing I’m not sure about is the likelihood of there being no attractive defensive options if the OT’s and WR’s go early. Whether it’s a Ryan Shazier or a Ra’Shede Hageman, I think there’s every chance an appealing prospect could be left at #32. Even a Demarcus Lawrence or Marcus Smith would carry some value.
Part of the motivation for this piece was Mel Kiper’s mock earlier in the week. Many good options for Seattle were off the board by #32 according to Kiper’s projection. Yet it’s worth noting his ESPN colleague Todd McShay had both Anthony Barr and Shazier available for Seattle.
If the first round falls like this, who do they take?
Several big names dropped. They just don’t really fit the Seahawks.
C.J. Mosley is a talented linebacker but he’s far from an explosive athlete. Lingering concerns about his health could see a fall into round two and he just doesn’t seem like the type of player Seattle would draft in round one.
Justin Gilbert is still on the board and he has the length, speed and production (interceptions) that screams ‘Seahawks’. And yet his tape doesn’t match up. He was nearly benched last year and with good reason. There are one or two attitude concerns. Given Seattle’s prolific ability to find cornerbacks later in the draft, I’m not sure they’d be willing to take a chance on Gilbert in round one. After all, they passed on Jimmy Smith in 2011 (a vastly superior player in my eyes).
Calvin Pryor is still there — a decent safety who’s perhaps not quite as good as the national pundits have suggested. He’s a hard hitter but doesn’t have great range. He ran a mediocre 4.58 at the combine at 5-11, 207lbs. I can’t see the Seahawks drafting a safety this early anyway.
There are still receivers who could make sense. Martavis Bryant and Brandon Coleman are wildcard options. Stephon Tuitt is there. As we’ve discussed this week — would they consider Dominique Easley? A legit top-25 pick (maybe even top-15) with injury history?
I don’t think they’ll take a pure guard in round one despite it being a trendy pick with the national pundits. J.R. Sweezy is locked in at right guard while I think they’re comfortable using a rotation on the left side and letting Tom Cable fit guys into his scheme.
And yes — several big name quarterbacks are still on the board. I wouldn’t rule anything out so I can’t say with any certainty that a trade down won’t happen. The odds are against it though.
For starters, since they made day one of the draft exclusively the first round — no Super Bowl winners have traded out of the first. I’m not convinced that’s a coincidence.
Most teams looking to trade back into the first round don’t wait until the final pick of the day. They’ll often make their move in the 20’s. New England at #29 are always willing to deal, while there are other potential candidates (San Diego at #25, New Orleans at #27).
The 5th year option on a contract for first round prospects is incredibly valuable — especially to a team like Seattle that is preparing to spend big on Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman. Any trade offer would have to be worth the deal. Moving down 5-6 spots for a 5th rounder just isn’t that appealing. I think the Seahawks are more likely to deal the final selection in round two to try and accumulate more picks.
Every year we talk about teams moving back into the first round for a quarterback and let’s be right — it rarely happens. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen this year, but haven’t we been here before?
Presuming the Seahawks keep the #32 pick, who would you take in this scenario?
The value of Bridgewater at 32 is alluring. So is Su’a-Filo. But I must believe this scenario warrants a trade down.
One of the twitter draftniks, Cian Fahey I think, was talking about the possibility of SF taking Bridgewater and letting Kaep walk after this year. Kaep obviously has off field stuff that might make that appealing where Russell doesn’t, but hey…. another 5 years of cost controlled QB wouldn’t be the worst thing.
I know Rob likes Kaepernick, but I am just really underwhelmed with him as a QB. What happens when he loses a step or 2? Great tools but severely limited on the finer nuances (reads, progressions, etc). I don’t think SF would do QB in R1, but R2 or 3 would not surprise me at all. I sure as heck wouldn’t pay CK $18M a year.
He’s a decade away from losing a step or two.
A decade…really?
You think a 30 year old CK won’t be slower than 26 year old CK? That’s only 3 years away. But, he could totally defy the normal human aging process, I guess.
*I meant a 27 year old. Haha, not that bad at math.
I remember my peak year physically was 24. There was not a precipitous drop off each year thereafter, but there was a slight drop off. But what took my toll on my body as a professional mountain climber was the wear and tear of the sport, and I m sure we’re all certain a pro football player would go through way worse since he’s getting hit and piled on on a constant basis.
I’d rather have RW than Kaep, since he has that squatty body that seems more conducive to hits. I think Kaep is an injury waiting to happen.
Hmmm … 24’s pretty young to be saying that on average, pro athletes hit their physical primes at 24. I’d consider that using just your own experience alone is suffering from a miniscule sample size and is kind of contrary what we know about pro athletes and when they hit their physical primes on average, between 26-30+ with QBs capable of playing at an elite level to a far more advanced age. Check out Brady and Peyton. I know his mobility is a big part of Kap’s game now, but then again so it was for guys like Steve Young and Elway earlier on in their careers.
Russell is here for the long haul. I think if there’s one thing we can say with any certainty it’s the Seahawks won’t take a QB in round one.
But the Seahawks are whaaaaacky!
No, I agree. I’d be completely floored if Seattle took Bridgewater and if it somehow did happen I’d assume it’d be to flip him for picks down the road.
What if Manziel is there? Don’t laugh.
PC & JS are bold but not crazy. The Christine Michael pick is a chessboard pick. He is an elite prospect who needed a redshirt year. The salary cap will require this to be Beast Mode’s last season in Seattle. Michael can maintain the running game at a championship level, so his pick made lots of sense when you think about it. A QB makes no sense whatsoever. You would only take a QB in R2 or R3 is you were virtually certain you could trade him for a R1 in a couple of years, but what is the point in taking a QB in R1 to only trade him for a R1 later on….so what if the pick would be a few slots higher….the value is not there. The Seahawks will not go QB or RB in R1….anything else is fair game if their board falls that way. TE and S less likely than all other positions, but still possible if the player grades out.
I could maybe see that with a QB with more upside than Bridgewater. But for a limited upside guy with flaws in his game and a lot less mobile than Kaep I can’t see them burning the first and betting the farm on him post-Kaep.
The value of this scenario would be getting a better than average return from a team wanting to move up for Bridgewater, that would be a dream scenario imo. In a deep draft, it’s about volume. Seahawks want more picks.
As unlucky as this might be, there are still lots of interesting options barring a trade back:
Ealy
XSF
Tuitt
Jeffcoat
Bryant
It’s an unlucky draft in terms of getting value, but the guys left over could still step in and be day 1 starters (except maybe Jeffcoat). This draft is just so deep.
I personally have never understood the appeal of Ealy and XSF. Bryant would be intriguing because of his rare physical talent.
Whoops, was supposed to be Easley. Agreed on Ealy.
Easley in this scenario would have to be considered. Totally agree.
Or move back and still get Easley.
Just my take, but I’d see Jeffcoat as a mid rounder with health issues, Ealy as an average R2-3 type and ditto XSF.
Well, when you’re picking 32 you’re basically picking in round two.
I guess. I’m not a big fan of either in Seattle though.
You just keep making this harder and harder for me. My big Board says Troy Niklas TE from Notre Dame. He really the only TE I like.
My personal recommendation for the Seahawks: find a team desperate to trade up for a QB, trade out of that 32nd pick, draft a Bitonio, Dee Ford, Niklas, ASJ, Easley, whoever is the BPA
That would be a nightmare scenario. I’d honestly have to consider Stephon Tuitt or Justin Gilbert. When in doubt, go with the top end talent. Gilbert could form a crazy 1-2 with Sherman in future years while providing return ability. Tuitt is a big body with good athleticism.
Yeesh, hope it doesn’t play out this way. I don’t feel great about either of those picks.
Didnt the broncos trade back into round 1 for tebow with the Seahawks ?
Not with Seattle but point taken. They moved from #43 to #25 by trading with Baltimore so I’ll adjust the piece. It’s worth noting this deal was done pre-CBA.
Who did Denver trade with seattle to pick up that pick became either earl Thomas or okung
Denver traded for Seattle’s 2nd round pick to draft Alphonso Smith from Wake Forest.
Wow they traded a 1st for a 2nd what idiots
SEA’s 2nd in ’09 for DEN’s 1st in ’10. Trading for a current pick w/ a future picks always drops the future’s worth
Desperation moves by final year contract GMs/Coaches lead to aggressive moves that are less likely to pan out. Josh McDaniels was on hit way out when he made those moves.
We will disagree, but I don’t see what you don’t see in Kony Ealy. That’s what I’d do at 32.
I’d rather have Kareem Martin over Ealy. Not sure where Ealy fits in SEA.
Agreed, I think Martin and Kelsey Quarles of South Carolina have big potential.
Just looks like a really average player to me. Minimal edge pressure, lack of burst. Better inside but not an early down guy at tackle.
Ealy does have some very good short times, 3 cone, 20 yd, doesn’t he? But he seems at best a clone of Michael Bennett, so I don’t see the fit. I know some national scouts still rave about him, but he is a basic 4-3 DE, which PC does not deploy.
I’m not a big Ealy guy, but I do think he’s got a good shot at being a solid starter for someone. Just not the Hawks. They value specialization along the d-line so much, and Ealy is more of a jack of all trades type.
BPA, which would be Gilbert, Lawrence, Pryor and Ealy. Talk it over with the top people, if his character were to check out, Lawrence would be my pick.
Lawrence is off the board in this projection.
Martavis Bryant would be my guess for the Seahawks.
As you pointed out, I would also imagine that Stephon Tuitt would also be heavily considered with his 34 3/4 inch arms. If they felt confident that Tuitt could get down to 280 lbs range to increase his quickness, than I could see him being the pick too.
Mine for Bryant as well, and I’d be happy with the pick.
I would be happy to take Bryant in this situation.
I have to agree.
I like Pryor a lot, but you’re right. He doesn’t have the range to play single high. Would be a great SS in a cover two. Perhaps San Fran looks to add to their secondary in that way. I think he is a better prospect than HHCD. Similar skillsets and limitations, but Pryor is also a thumper. Dix didn’t flash on tape for me. I need Dix to flash.
I’ll go back to the film, though
Would still love to see a piece specifically on the Corners in this draft.
The Texans obviously need a QB. If they take Clowney first over all then they’re, most likely, targeting a QB at pick #33. In Rob’s scenario Bridgewater, Carr, and Garapolo are all sitting there at the Hawks pick at #32. To me I’d think teams like Oakland, Minnesota and Jacksonville would be looking to jump ahead of Houston to get the QB they value most. Yes NE, NO and SD are sitting in front of us and may be willing to make a trade. Of these team’s only SD at #25 makes sense to get up to, as Cleveland has #26. Us trading down, into the early second round, with one of these teams could be in the cards. Dropping down to 35-40 and picking up a 4th and/or a 5th sounds like a good deal to me, in this worst case scenario. If we have 4-5 players we’re targeting at #32 it’s probable that 2 or more is going to be there after we moved down 3-8 spots.
The thing is — if a team wanted to jump Houston they won’t necessarily wait until the last pick possible to do it. New England would presumably accept any deal the Seahawks are willing to accept. They move down nearly every year. So Seattle’s place right in front of Houston doesn’t necessarily make it an ideal trade spot. In fact I’d be stunned if teams waited until the last pick (and therefore the last chance) of the day to trade up for a QB because they feared Houston at #33.
And I’m not sure a 4th or 5th rounder is worth losing the extra year on the contract for a first round pick.
Agreed. Just saying it’s a possibility.
Hadn’t thought about the extra contract year. Guess I’m looking more for quantity of picks, especially with us not having a 3rd this year. There could be a very talented player to be had early in the 4th. We’re splitting hairs. There’s positives in either staying put at #32 or trading down.
…but that 5th year option is exactly what could make pick 32 appealing to other teams.
Speaking of New England -I would think they are going to play their board to the te from uw,Jenkins. It seems like a perfect n.e pick scheme wise and bpa based on their scheme. It has been very quiet considering what Jenkins could bring to the te position…perfect size and good speed. This is a player that n.e could grab late on the 1st or early in the 2nd. If the top six wr’s are taken before 32 and Jenkins is still on the board I think the hawks take him. Do you take 7-10 rated wr? Or do you take 1-2rated te? Based on the Seahawks offense, you take the 1-2 rated te.
AS-F to NE is a nice call. The way they use their TEs, and with the ability of Bellichek and Brady to motivate, he could find his niche there.
What a great problem to have. Hope we’re talking the same way next year. There are still a lot of intriguing players left.
Easly, Kareem Martin, Smith, Tuitt, Jeffcoat, Anthony Johnson, Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Martavius Bryant. None are sure things, but picking this high what are you going to do?
I’d be more interested in Verrett, Gaines, or Gilbert than Baptiste I think, but I’d be pretty surprised if Seattle went corner earlier even in this scenario.
Gilbert at #32 could be the steal of the draft! Highly doubt he’ll fall that far though.
I like McGill as well.
McGill is intriguing but he is really, really old.
If the draft plays out like this, and we cant trade down, agree with Tuitt or Bryant.
R-1 needs to be a special talent, difference maker. Easley is exactly that, but coming off 2 ACL’s, not worth the risk, unless, PC/JC know something we dont…..which is always the case…..
Easley just makes me nervous in rd 1. Makes me think of Marcus Tubbs- dominant when on the field but can you expect damaged knees to hold up under a lineman’s weight?
Might be willing to take him though if he would change his name to Kenny
In this scenario, I’d love to go after Coleman or Easley.
By the by…you’re doing excellent work Rob. These are great scenarios/talking points.
Bucky Brooks has us getting Morgan Moses and Jarvis Landry in his latest 2-round mock draft. You’d have to imagine that would be a solid enough first couple rounds.
Can’t argue with that scenario.
Fundamentally, our bread and butter is still: ‘Run the ball…stop the run’.
This scenario appears to be a tough choice at #32, (assuming no trade downs), but it all comes down to priority for me.
IMO our #1 priority throughout 2014-2017 is to stop the run on 1st & 2nd downs, and force opposing offenses to throw into the teeth of the LOB on 3rd & longs. This is a winning formula for us… BUT only if we stop the run consistently…
We lost 3 experienced D-Linemen this off-season. My choice here is Stephon Tuitt.
Tough to argue that. I wouldn’t be excited by Tuitt, but definitely wouldn’t be disappointed.
Well put! Wouldn’t be upset with Tuitt at all.
Good points and good value – if Tuitt would have posted his sophomore stats last year, he’d be a Top 15 pick!
I ‘d take Bryant here, but if 5 receivers go early and the guys who are really on Schneider’s radar start dropping, the proactive move i.m.o. is a move up. Especially this year when moving up is expected to be cheap and in a scenario where staying put would be costly. Get Latimer if hes the guy, hageman etc, just make sure you get someone good since it shouldn’t cost much.
This is another conversation but I wouldnt mind packaging next years first for a big move if it could bring us a guy like Donald or Mike Evans.
Jarvis Landry or Stephan Tuitt. Landry will bust his ass for greatness, we know that. Tuitt with a coach like Dan Quinn could be a steal. These picks based on your mock.
Full agree. Landry > Bryant for me, and Tuitt is a solid pick. I was gonna say Nix (next Mebane), but then I noticed he was off the board as well.
Landry
Tuitt
Bryant
Great points, yes,Tuitt then in R-1.
Rob has given us so many different possibilities daily, thank you!!!
If Dominique Easley is there at 64, he has to be the pick. He has to. I don’t care about the knee concerns, that man is a top 15 talent. It’s unbelievable watching him play.
I’d go Bryant if he was available at 32.
I think this coming week will determine where the holes are. In some ways, this is the perfect year for the draft to be pushed back for the Seahawks. They let guys go hoping others are ready to step up – Scruggs, Mayowa for Red and Clem. Bailey and Bowie – will they be ready to step in at guard and RT? if so, it frees up the pick of the best WR at 32.
Bryant flying down the sideline combined with Percy Harvin is a lethal combination. The FS must abandon the deep middle to help…or not. Either way, it’s pick your poison…
Robert – more specifically – Harvin giving amazing horizontal speed to spread the field wider and Bryant “flying down the sideline” to spread the field vertically. The defense can only cover so many zones on any given play. Put in a little Beastmode, Rice, Baldwin and Kearse (not to mention a tiny piece of Wilson) and my, oh my…could we actually become an offensive juggernaut? I think we can…
Jawaun James OT
Getter done
He will probably be available in round 3 or 4 but good player.
Either we get him by end of round 2 or he will be gone by our next pick.
James would make a solid pick at 64. He isn’t known for strong run blocking but he will help keep defenses off Wilson and he could potentially slide over to left tackle if Okung is hurt.
I’d take XSF in this scenario.. and I do think even if it has been rare in the past, the trade down for a team wanting to take a QB with the 5th year option is in play.. trade value chart most favors doing it with the Hawks and is more likely if the Texans draft Clowney, teams would want to jump #33.
Brutal. I’d go Tuitt or Landry….and what about Kyle Fuller (as opposed Justin Gilbert if a cornerback is taken @ 32)?
this may be a bad scenario but I still feel like it is an ok place to be.
Easly is good but injured
Tuitt would not be the worst thing to ever happen with the 32nd pick
At WR I really like Landry and Coleman and Bryant is still on the board as well
I think my pick would be Easly simply because the talent unless the knee is not cleared. If you feel like he is a value at 40 with the knee then he is still quality at 32. If he is worth the risk to draft early second then you cant miss out on him in order to take anyone else left on the board at 32.
Plus with the 5th year option it gives us time to red shirt him if necessary or use him in rotation as would be the plan anyway.
I really hope this is the year the Seahawks trade up and take Cody Latimer.
WR start leaving the board like this and it might happen.
In this mock scenario – if NE would go for it – I’d trade up to 29 & take Hageman or Smith. Our top of the 5th rd pick is about equal to that 29vs 32 slot differential in rd 1
While I agree with all the various sentiments about the difficulty of trading back from #32, it exposes a paradox: That is, if teams are going to trade up ahead of us to grab their QB, then this nightmare scenario won’t unfold in the way it has.
So I’d say trade back, and if you can’t because New England already accommodated Minnesota or Jacksonville, then wouldn’t, say, Ra’shede Hageman still be there?
Solid point. Of course there is also the scenario where teams are just content to wait until their pick in the 2nd.
I would be happy to snag Tuitt if this was how it played out. I think he has a lot of potential to be a special player.
I hadn’t considered Mack at 2, but it makes sense. An intriguing idea.
I love Latimer. I also think the Seahawks might consider Martavis Bryant in the same spot. Latimer is a better player, but we know how much our FO loves size/speed guys…Bryant offers some huge upside.
I don’t see how any team takes a Right Tackle within the top-5 no matter how good he is. Positional value doesn’t jibe with me on the Cleveland pick.
If this is a nightmare scenario then I’m gonna watch more scary movies. I recently read and article (sorry I can’t give credit because I don’t remember who wrote it) that analyzed the draft based upon Seahawky measurables. Kony Ealy was right up there. Another name I haven’t seen mentioned is Robinson the Penn State receiver who’s athleticism is amazing. Seems like there is plenty of good talent to choose from. My disappointment is the lack of a 3rd round pick.
Yeah. I was trying to remember the Penn State receivers name. Robinson is an option at 32 along with Bryant. Heck Brandson Coleman even.
I just went along with the crowd thinking that Coleman was a possibility but this same article put his measurables in perspective by comparing the top 75 or so receivers. Coleman was down at about 50th.
Well your making it harder but when I went to my big board I found the next option up and that would be a
Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame 6’6″ 270lbs.,34 1/8″ arms, 10″hands, 32″vj, 114″bj, 27reps, 7.57 3cone, 4.55 shuttle, and a best 12.19 60 yd shuttle which is more endurance test not used much.
He didn’t do the 40yd dash at combine or preform in his pro day after having a double hernia surgery.
Now I don’t know if Bloodlines mean a lot but he is the nephew of hall of famer Bruce Mathews and cousin to Casey and Clay Mathews which is a pretty good pedigree. Cable and miller could get this guy going in the 1st year on the ZBS and have him ready to take over as number 1 TE for a long time.
He can be that big target in the red zone everyone wants. My mock has changed in the first 2 picks and one of the reasons is I think the value of the 2 now is better value than the 2 pre
32 Donte Moncrief WR Ole Miss, I want his stretching the field ability.
64 JaWuan James RT Tennessee, He completely what Cable wants at right Tackle.
128 Ed Stinson DE/DT Alabama, tough, hardworking, ultra competitive, and outstanding endurance
146 Antone Exum CB/FS Virginia Tech, played 3 years at FS, 1 year CB playing press.
172 Zack Moore DE/LEO Concordia(MN), Raw but has abilities that makes a coach drool.
208 Marquise Flowers WILL/SS Arizona, Big like Kam and pete tried to recruit him at USC.
247 Joe Don Duncan TE/LS Dixie State, super stats small school but he’s a long snapper
UDFA Greg Shultz G/T Utah St.
A.C. Leonard TE Tennessee
A note on Cody Latimer who I think is more a possession receiver who doesn’t really show YAC. Its not that I don’t like the guy but I want that guy that has speed to go verticle done the field and can shake the 1st guy and get a chuck of YAC. Seattle on average throws about 25 passes in a game of which 18 are caught and 5 are to RB. The play action fake is the bread and butter play for going long. You stick a Moncrief and Harvin in the 1 and 2 spot with a Baldwin in the slot and a Willson in motion it going to be hard on any defense. This team has always been about speed and when you get it at 221lbs well I just leave it at that.
Pretty sure Latimer runs a 4.4, he definitely has the speed to get vertical.
Cody just doesn’t show that explosion at the start of the play. Go read the write up on Latimer at the scouting combine, lacks foot speed to gain separation vertically and watching the tape it shows. The NFL combine grades these receiver on everything and some stuff we don’t get to know. when you look at the grade they tend to be dead on until you get to a point where you talking a .1 or .2 difference.
Watkins 7.0 highest rate WR
Benjamin 6.4
Lee 6.2
Evans 6.15
Beckham 5.9
Cook 5.85
Moncrief 5.85
Mathew 5.6
Landry 5.6
Coleman 5.43
Latimer 5.24
I don’t just go by grades I read positives and weakness and then I see if its what I see watching game tape. They didn’t go wrong on latimer evaluation at all. I want more than a jump ball receiver.
Benjamin over Lee and Evans?
Moncrief grading equal to Cooks?
This is pure crazy talk.
Latimer didn’t work out at the combine.
Well I got some satisfaction today. On the way to the store I listen to ESPN 710 radio out of Seattle and on the Brock and Danny show Brock said he like the WR from Ole Miss. He might not have been a top notch QB in the NFL but he was a pro.
Martavis Bryant or Justin Gilbert. Id be happy with either.
I’ve got it – let’s just pass on our 1st round pick for 5-10 picks and end up in the second round even if we can’t trade down 🙂
Passing even once would give us all night to try and trade back from 33. Could be a bold move that pays some dividends.
In the similar discussion below, someone points out we lose the 5th year option by falling out of the 1st round, which is a very good point…but still like the idea somewhat if we therefore pay someone at 2nd rather than 1st round rate
Hey Rob, this could be the best draft for girlfriends (see AJ McCarron, Johnny Manziel). Maybe you with some research and do a mock draft based on their better looking partners.
If it’s mildly football related, and involves no actual analysis it is probably already up on B******* R*****
maybe check there…
McCarron GF >>>>> Manziel GF
by a track length. Not even close.
Option 1 – New England loves to trade back. Trade up 3 places with NE using next year’s 3rd or 4th and get Hageman.
Option 2 – The Browns want Manziel and none of the teams behind them need a QB. The should be glad to trade back with us and pick him at 32. Pick Bitonio or Moncrief.
Or, in a story:
When Benjamin is picked at 15 and I am beginning to get nervous. I start looking at my first round candidates disappearing in an alarming rate. With Latimer and cook going at 22 and 23 i am in full blown panic mode. Looking ahead, the only team that will be interested in a QB is the Browns so everybody else will pick my last few candidates. Then it hits me – The Browns will get their QB at 26 and the next team to be interested in a QB is Houston picking at 33rd. This has the making of a perfect win/win situation. I’ll give the Browns their QB plus an extra pick. They should love it. I’ll move ahead 6 places and pick either Bitonio or Moncrief. I pick up the phone and the rest is history. Everybody compliments the Browns for their draft savvy and we get the guy we wanted.
if they are dump enough to reject it and Joel, Donte fly of the board next there is always the option to drop our pants with the Patriots and get Hageman.
I breath again. Mel Kiper will hate the pick and the trade. We did really good.
Rob,
I am wondering where things stand with both Jesse WIlliams and Jordan Hill. Assuming Williams rehab has gone well and he can play at Alabama level and Hill lives up to his draft status, that negates a real need for a DT anywhere above rd 5 in this draft. Would you agreee?
I’m sceptical on Williams ever contributing. Hill could have an impact though.
Jesse has been in Seattle working out the past few weeks and reports are positive, though we are right to remain skeptical. If he can play like he did at Bama, he totally and completely shuts down the between-the-tackles run game.
Random question.
Is the last pick of Round one “on the clock”?
what happens if the last pick goes over their time? We all know what happens if an early pick goes over. Other teams race to the podium.
So what happens if the Seahawks go over their time? Can the teams at the top of round two run up even though round two isn’t until the next day?
If they can run up is their pick a first round pick? What about when Seattle actually got their pick in. Would it still be technically #32?
lol, just wondering if the Seahawks could somehow troll the draft.
Pretty sure if we go over time, Houston would jump us and get the 32nd pick. And then we would have all night to trade down from 33.
Interesting situation. I don’t know if losing the 5th year option on a 1st rd pick would be worth it. I can imagine that PC/JS have 3-4 guys they WANT when that pick is to be announced.
But… an extra pick is an extra pick.
We know we like to walk away with 9 or 10 picks each year and I believe we have 8 right now. Not 100% on that ike I should be but Im lazy this year with the push back into May.
Also, Ive made the point before that #32 could end up being prime trade property BECAUSE of the 5th year option on the contract. So an actual trade down, instead of just passing, could be more likely than most think.
That 5th year on the contract is just as valuable to Seattle to be fair…
In this setup, Justin Gilbert without question. Honestly I think you need to have him gone for a ‘worst case’, he’s a fantastic fit with our preferred parameters and he’s at what will be a big position of need if you look at who we’ve actually got under contract after next year (and we will be in the market for a starting corner next year because either Maxwell underperforms and needs replacing or we won’t be able to afford him).
This is up there with Shazier falling. Just make the pick and don’t fight the board.
In this scenario, the pick would probably be Martavis Bryant.
However here’s another point: in this scenario, the trade market would go on hyperdrive at the end fo the first round. If the Texans don’t pick a qb, everyone knows they will use their first pick in the second for one. So every other qb needy team will be interested in skipping ahead to get their favorite qb. Seattle might not have a trade partner, but the guys right in front of them will and will also be interested in moving into the high second.
OMG I love it!! http://www.fieldgulls.com/football-videos/2014/4/20/5533858/the-chawkboard-oregons-jet-lead-fly-sweep-video
I’d be happy to pick Tuitt here.
Reminds me of Calais Campbell; around the same dimensions/athleticism, big time prospect in college but underachieved to a point that he dropped to the 2nd. The Hawks took the vastly inferior Lawrence Jackson ahead of him probably because Jackson tried harder in college.
Tuitt should be a top 20 prospect based on ability if he puts it together. Travis Jones, Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll can make that happen.
Amongst the guys I’ve looked at, Verrett stands out to me as the truly the BPA in this scenerio; regardless of the teams ability to turn mid round cbs into bigtime players.
Of course, there is no way Justin Gilbert, CB, Ok St, will be there at #32, but to create the nightmare scenario, other players have to fall (CBs and QBs here). If Gilbert is there, you grab him in an instant. 6-0, 200 lbs, sparq off the charts, how would you ever complete a pass against that Seahawks secondary?
Then, Tuitt would be my next choice, due to elite bigger/faster/stronger attributes; and then XSF will be a pro-bowler within 3 years, once he adds 15 lbs of muscle that he would have had but for his Mormon mission…the guy is a born leader and will protect RW no matter what.
Keep in mind, WR is the worst possible choice in R1 for those who think rationally, and many NFL GMs do. The failure rate for R1 WRs is 75% !!!!. The failure rate for R1 OGs is only about 35%. XSF adds an almost certain winning player, and Tuitt is the rare 6-6, 300 lb specimen with 4.8 speed, Pete and Quinn would know exactly how to use him. The nightmare scenario is no nightmare, just looking beyond the usual suspects.
Nice analysis! I like guys that think for themselves. I haven’t studied Gilbert much because I doubt he will be there and we do not need help at CB. Tuitt, Hageman and XSF seem more likely. I would could see us taking an O Linemen in round one. XFS has the size Bitonio lacks and has been compared to Steve Hutchinson. I would follow that pick with the injured Brandon Thomas in round 5. Let Thomas have a redshirt year. By 2015 we would have one of the top lines in the NFL when Thomas replaces Sweezy.
I think there’s every chance Gilbert drops into round two. There’s a reason OKST nearly benched him in 2013.
I’m also not buying that failure rate on WRs. Most recent R1 receivers have been very successful. Plus just because other players bombed doesn’t mean this years group will. The highest risk position for draft in round one for me is defensive line. You just don’t know how those guys are going to translate against pro blockers. Even the top college athletes at DE struggle to adjust.
Was going to bring up the same point. Failure Rate at WR is such an overblown stereotype now. As a matter of fact, in recent years, WR has actually been very safe. Conversely, there has been a lot of OL/DL busts despite the notion that players in the trenches having this arbitrary “safe” label applied.
I wouldn’t pass on a Megatron, Green, or draftees Watkins or Evans just because there is a high failure rate. When you have a chance to get the elite of the wide receivers you need to take it. I’m also of the opinion that it is an urban myth that there are a high number of failures. Even if there are, there are also about 12 wide receivers on the Seahawks regular and practice squad, so there are a lot of players who won’t make it just because of numbers.
Did we just land our big WR in Terrelle Pryor?!?!
http://fansided.com/2014/04/21/raiders-trade-terrelle-pryor-seahawks/
Terelle Pryor to back up Wilson then
…..or a 6-5, 4.4/40 SE? Or both? Most likely, RWs long-term backup, but with Pete, who knows?
Pryor to Hawks…perfect TE convert…6’5″ 240 4.4
Rob, a few weeks ago you listed your favorite picks for the Hawks, in order. It was crystal on which players you wanted over other players etc.
Could you do an updated one for R-1 if you have changed your opinions?
Could you do one for #64?
Just heard the Hawks traded for Terrell Prior, tremendous athlete. Unknown what the terms of trade were.
Later this week I’m doing a piece on who I think the Seahawks will give first round grades too.
This mock was interesting as it forced one to come off the standard wish list and start looking for “plan b” players. I wanted to have another look at Easley and that got me thinking about similar players. I watched a bunch of Aaron Donald then started to look at Will Sutton. Wow!! I had forgotten just what a beast he was in 2012! His disruptive play just leaps off the screen. He is noticeably heavier in his 2013 tape but you can still see the raw talent. If one would be willing to take a chance on a damaged Easley why not Sutton? If he had come out after his junior year he’s a slam dunk early first rounder. I’d like to hear what others think about him.
Personally, I’ve never been a big fan of Sutton even after the 2012 season. He’s what a lot of people think Donald is. He’d get blown up against the run, get pushed around for three quarters then have an impact on one drive with a couple of sacks. Donald is actually much more stouter than that and he’s consistently effective during a game.
Sutton’s conditioning is enough of a concern to put me off in the first place, but I just don’t see his 2012 season translating to the pro’s. For me he’s going to end up being a late rounder.
I would run to the podium and take Allen Robinson WR – Penn State. Watching his tape he looks like he would fit in perfectly with Seattle. He works the redline well, he comes back to the ball better than any receiver I’ve seen this year which would suit RW and our offense perfectly. He’s got size and, thanks to his pro day numbers, the speed he showed on game tape.
Also, according to Zach Whitman (@Cablinasian), Robinson ranked #1 in his SPARQ WR rankings (details on his Fieldgulls article):
“Actually, Robinson’s numbers weren’t fully updated — add in 4.47 40 from his pro day and he’s first with a 147 SPARQ. Freak athlete.”
In the second tier of WR I would rank them like this:
*Allen Robinson – great fit with athleticism, size, ability to get open
*Cody Latimer – you make a better case for him than I ever could
*Martavis Bryant – I love this kid, great size and speed, good hands. I think his pro career could end up being better than Sammy Watkins when all is said and done
*Donte Moncrief – His athleticism doesn’t show up on tape a lot to me, seems to be a crisp route runner too. Seems like he could be very good or even very bad.. somewhat of a gamble to me.
Tier 3:
*Jordan Mathews
*Paul Richardson
*Kelvin Benjamin
*Davante Adams
*Jarvis Landry
Lastly, thanks so much for everything you post! I am frequently checking the site for updates, it’s one of my favorite Seahawk blogs, if not my favorite!
The problem with referring to Robinson’s pro day in terms of SPARQ is he ran in the 4.6’s at the combine. All players run faster at their pro days. He never once looked like a 4.4 guy on tape and the 4.6 was about right. The combine times have to be used when judging SPARQ because they’re the only numbers we can really trust.
LOL but Cody Latimer didn’t perform at the combine. Sorry rob had to say that.
He didn’t, but it’s all we have to go off. And on tape he looks like a 4.4 runner. If he’d run a 4.6 at the combine and then a 4.3/4.4 at the pro day I’d be saying the same things.
I don’t see how Martavis Bryant could end up with a better career than Sammy Watkins. Bryant has size and speed and can get down field. Sammy Watkins has just as much speed and carries more weight. He is more than just a down field threat. He’s also a red zone threat and can with 50/50 balls. He can do anything and everything and run the full route tree. There’s a reason why he’s the best WR in this class, he can do it all. Oh how I wish he would end up a Hawk and line opposite Percy.