This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
In a seventeen game NFL season, every week counts. Every week can be pointed to as a turning point for a team, one that cuts both ways. The beginning of something good, or the game fans point to that just confirms that the wheels that were wobbly have truly fallen off.
It is no small matter that the Seahawks have dropped three games in a row and have tumbled from an exhilarating 3-0 start to a maddening 3-3 team with more questions than answers.
They had a mini-bye to take stock of their program and reassess some things. Frankly, everything needed a close look. Execution in all three phases, player motivation and play calling.
Sporting a -5 turnover ratio while giving up over 500 rushing yards in three losses will sure make you look at things differently.
They will need every bit of coaching they can get for this game against the Falcons. While it is a relief to get some of their Defensive Linemen like Boye Mafe and Byron Murphy back, now the defensive backfield is being hammered by injuries. Starting Cornerbacks Tre Brown and Riq Woolen are out. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins was placed on Injured Reserve. Right Tackle Stone Forsythe will be replaced by Mike Jerrell, who is getting his first-ever NFL snaps in the NFL.
Every team has ‘roster decimation games’ like this at least once or twice a season. It is up to the coaches to know the skills of the healthy players they have available and tailor a game plan accordingly. Primarily that means leaning on and accentuating your personnel’s strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.
It is needed particularly this week, as Atlanta looks very capable at 4-2. After a clunky opening loss to the Steelers, they have won four of five games — including all three of their division games. Their lone loss was to Kansas City and they twice were in the red zone late in the fourth quarter and did not come away with any points in a five point loss.
With a defense that has been far softer than expected, an offense that has too often been one-dimensional and special teams that are almost always an adventure, the Seahawks will need to play smart, tough, dedicated football to come home with a win today.
Those are the real points to keep an eye on:
— Can the defense take good angles and make the tackles they should?
— Can the offense run the ball?
— Can Geno Smith deliver under duress if this game turns into a shootout?
— Can the special teams unit deliver a ‘we’re not the reason we lost the game’ performance?
— If the team gets behind in the game, will see pouting and loafing on the sidelines from their top players?
We will see.
But for now, let us take a look at some of the finer points to watch in this matchup.
Put Pressure on Kirk Cousins – By Any Means Necessary
We have long discussed Cousins’ kryptonite: He is a very poor quarterback when blitzed. To quote from our 2021 article when the Seahawks played the Vikings in Week Three:
In Kirk Cousins’ three-year tenure in Minnesota, you can practically draw a straight line between the amount of pressures the Vikings allow and whether they win the game or not:
Average pressures in a Viking win: 6.9
Average pressures in a Vikings loss: 12.4
But that is just academic, isn’t it? Just about every team in the league can tie winning the game to pressuring the quarterback, right?What makes Kirk Cousins any different?
This does — when Cousins was blitzed in 2020, his completion percentage dropped from 71.40% to 59.50%.
You read that correctly. He goes from sharpshooter to peashooter when blitzed.
Has he gotten better since then? Has the move to Atlanta remedied that weakness?
Good heavens no. In fact, he has gotten worse.
When Cousins is not blitzed, he completes 69.1% of his passes.
When he is blitzed? That number drops to a horrid 55.8%.
There are several reasons why this is the case.
Cousins has found a lot of success getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible to avoid pressure. He has always had playmakers to work with. If he can get the ball in their hands, they will make things happen. There are some plays that are pure rhythm. Snap, drop, throw. The Seahawks will need the occasional press play from their corners to disrupt his timing.
Another reason is he is not an off-script playmaker nearly to the extent other NFL quarterbacks are. He has one scramble in six games so far. For one yard. It is just not his game to extend plays and torch defenses when things break down.
And the third – and maybe the biggest reason – is he does not have the natural arm talent other top quarterbacks have. If he is throwing it more than 15 yards in the air, he needs his full windup in order to get it there in time. Bullying offensive linemen into his field of vision takes a good chunk of his arm out of the game.
Look at an example of what happens when he has time:
What a catch by Darnell Mooney! 😱#TBvsATL on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/YdkrfoRFXn— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2024
Tampa Bay has gotten no rush with their front four and Cousins has time to scan the field and really put some mustard on the pass. He puts it where only Mooney can make a play – with three defenders in close proximity – and nails it.
That is Cousins’ game in a nutshell. Quick throws to playmakers and when his immediate first read is not available, he will pick you apart.
If he has time.
Given this data, would you rather as a rule flood coverage in an effort to assist your depleted backfield? Or sprinkle in some blitzes to get him off his game? I would select the latter.
Notice a typical example of what happens when he is not comfortable:
This @Steelers defense 🔒 Donte Jackson INT!
📺: #PITvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/M5C6TTuLgH— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
He cannot step into his throw due to the lineman in his face. He loses velocity and throws an easy interception.
Geno Smith can make that throw flat-footed. Cousins cannot.
Armed with this long-standing catalog of Cousins’ trouble facing pressure, teams should be arming themselves to the teeth and blitzing at every opportunity.
They are not.
Only two starting quarterbacks in the entire NFL are being blitzed less-often than Cousins: Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold. Is there a reason those two do not get blitzed much? There is. They eat blitzes alive. Both are far more efficient when being blitzed than in normal rush.
This is one of the NFL’s greatest market inefficiencies in 2024. The Seahawks absolutely must take advantage in order to keep this offense in check. If they can do it with just Mafe, Williams, Hall and Murphy, all the better. But some well-timed blitzes will pour some gas on the fire.
A word on what kind of blitzing is needed: In that 2021 game, the Seahawks blitzed Cousins 11 times but were mostly ineffective. Why? They often tried delayed blitzes, and by the time the rusher got near Cousins, the ball was gone. The defense could not match up tight coverage with the blitz and Cousins often found the open man.
You can see on the Mooney touchdown that Anthony Nelson tried a stunt and was way too late to make a difference.
Mike Macdonald can disguise his blitzes, but they have to fire off at the snap and not be the long-developing Sunday drive types of blitzes. They very rarely work with Cousins.
Take What the Falcons Defense Gives You
Just as the potent Falcon offense is a concern for Seahawks fans, Falcons fans are rightly worried about how the Seahawks will attack their defense with their multiplicity of weapons.
And like the Seahawks’ new staff, they have a first-time Defensive Coordinator who made his bones in the college game (old Husky friend Jimmy Lake). How is it going so far?
Not unlike the Seahawks. Players are trying to grasp their roles, Lake is sticking to his principles and trusting that success will come. A big, big benefit they have going for them is the high-powered offense. The defense has not had to frequently make a big play to turn the game around. Just keep things in front of them and let the offense do its job.
Lake is employing a ‘bend don’t break’ philosophy that many Seahawks fans are familiar with: allow the smaller stuff, protect explosive deep passes and play the odds. In the red zone, use the shortened field to your advantage and keep them out of the end zone. Asking offenses to run 10-15 plays to get a touchdown is playing the odds that teams will eventually sputter and not be able to gain ten yards in three plays.
The result is a very intriguing mix:
— On the ground, they are in the middle of the pack in yards per rush but bottom 10 in rush attempts against and rushing yards per game. What is happening? They one of the NFL’s worst at conceding rushing first downs. So, they cannot get off the field when the defensive line needs to just man up and make a stop. They badly miss Calais Campbell. They can be run on, with patience and persistence.
— In the air, the philosophy is even more evident. They are top ten in passing yards conceded but middle of the pack in passing attempts against. The Falcons pass rush is almost non-existent with only five sacks in six games and a 14% pressure rate. They are conceding a 73.15% completion rate. I had to rub my eyes and do a double-take on that number.
As a result, they have only given up eleven plays of 20 yards or more, the lowest in the NFL. Eight of those are passes and three are rushes. (The flipside is, the Falcons offense is one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of time of possession.)
All of this does not mean the Seahawks must abandon the explosive nature of their offense and just plod down the field with dink and dunk type plays. It does mean that the Seahawks should liberally apply the run to their mix and tenderize this defense and then implement some play-action and let Geno survey the field with all the time he will have.
A 22 for 26 day for 275 yards and 2/3 touchdowns complemented by 30 rushes for 140 yards or so would be just what the doctor ordered.
Patience will be the key. If the Falcons are happy to give the Seahawks crossing patterns and short slants and other in-breaking routes, take them. Give the defense some time to rest and be ready to attack the Falcon offense.
And then when they get into the red zone, overwhelm them with talent.
Like this:
my goodness, DK Metcalf. pic.twitter.com/Rk4DXfEMj9
— Patty Honcho 🤹🏾♂️ (@PATTY_HONCHO) September 10, 2023