Month: February 2019 (Page 2 of 2)

Something for the weekend…

(This is not a ranking list it’s just a bunch of thoughts on some players)

Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
The most talented player in the draft and the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes you’ll find in a prospect.

T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
The second best offensive prospect in this draft class after Kyler Murray.

Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
There are flashes of talent for sure but there are enough moments to make you think — would you really want to stake your future on him?

Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
A complete pass rusher with the ability to start quickly and be a real force.

Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
It almost feels like people have forgotten just how dominant he was in 2019 and at times he was unstoppable.

Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Just a fantastic player, a clear top-10 talent and it’s an absolute nonsense that people keep mocking him late in the first round.

Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
He’s been destined to be a high pick since High School and he just has a physical profile teams will be willing to gamble on.

Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
Simmons’ frame is reminiscent of Ndamukong Suh’s and that’s who he could be at the next level.

Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ferrell is very talented with good character but when he gets to the combine he’ll need to perform as well as the other top edge rushers in this class.

Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Like Rashan Gary, the league has been watching Lawrence for a long time and there aren’t many human’s on the planet with his size and athleticism.

Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
He’s a great college pass rusher and you have to like his character and savviness but when you see tight ends handling him in the run game you have to wonder what this top-three pick talk is all about.

Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
You could never doubt Oliver’s effort, physicality and athleticism but it’s really hard to work out what his full-time position is at the next level.

Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
Bush makes mistakes against the run and won’t be able to be as aggressive as he was for Michigan but extremely fast and physical linebackers like this will go in round one.

Devin White (LB, LSU)
He’s more consistent with less flaws than Devin Bush but ultimately they’re cut from the same cloth.

Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite is a top-20 talent because he combines relentless effort with enough speed and explosion to be a real threat at the next level.

Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
It’s not often you find a prospect with his size and fantastic footwork and agility.

Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
His size and athleticism are plus points but he could be more physical and he needs to track the ball better.

Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
He has a better arm than some people think and poor mechanics are the reason why he sometimes struggles to generate velocity.

D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
He might be the biggest boom or bust candidate in this draft because you’ve got to love the rare size and athleticism but there are way too many focus drops, he doesn’t use his size like he should and there’s the neck injury.

Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
He’s not athletic or long enough to play tackle and I’d have major reservations about his strength and power at guard or center.

L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
He’ll need a strong combine to really propel his stock but Collier is as good as many of the ‘big names’ in this class when it comes to pass rushers.

Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
Some tight ends are the complete package and others (like Irv Smith Jr) are essentially big slot receivers.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
He’s a receiver who can stretch the field, compete for the ball in the air, separate with a quick release, block downfield and provide major special teams value.

Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
Murphy is tough and physical but lacks size and I’d really like to see how he’d fair at safety in the NFL.

Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
He has the production and the athleticism but he’s so incredibly raw when it comes to technique.

Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
He’s in danger of being underrated as a dynamic interior pass rusher who had an excellent 2018 season.

Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
Dillard doesn’t wow you with size or athleticism but he’s a pillar of consistency and the best pass blocker in this O-line class.

Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
The speed and the length is massively appealing but he needs to have a good combine and prove to teams that his Michigan State exit shouldn’t be a cause for concern.

Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
The nearest thing to Percy Harvin without any of the character problems and an extra 10lbs of muscle.

Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
Antonio’s cousin is incredibly quick and dynamic but I don’t think he’s as sudden as DeSean Jackson (who he’s often compared to).

Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
Built like a runner but has surprising shiftiness and he proved at the Senior Bowl he can get open with a fantastic release.

Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)
The most talented running back in the draft and if he can stay healthy in the NFL he could be great.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WR, Stanford)
An outstanding red-zone threat with great size but he needs to run well at the combine and show he isn’t going to need to rely on winning jump-balls to succeed.

Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
There’s definitely some potential with Lock and considering he could’ve been a first round pick a year ago it won’t be a shock if he lands in the top-10 this year.

Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
He’s really explosive and tough but people need to stop with this top-five pick silliness.

Most talented players in the class?
Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Christian Wilkins, T.J. Hockenson.

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Every year NFL.com publishes quite detailed draft profiles for most of the prospects. For the last few years Lance Zierlein has authored these profiles. He does a terrific job and they’re well worth checking out (click here).

I wanted to post some snippets here on some of the players we’ve discussed so far…

D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)

Full profile

Lance says: “While he has the talent to become a full-field threat, Metcalf is still an unpolished gem who was the second-best receiver on his college team. Until his skill-set is more developed, he could begin his career as a hit-or-miss long-ball threat.”

Lance also notes he had too many drops, especially focus drops when working back to the ball. This is something that concerned me watching Metcalf. He is an incredible athlete. He’s basically the prototype for a big receiver. He creates separation downfield which is no mean feat for his size. But his overall game is sloppy at times and he doesn’t make the most of his size. Plus there’s the health concern, even though he was given the all clear from his neck injury to work out at the combine.

I can imagine Pete Carroll being fascinated by his potential though.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)

Full profile

Quote from an AFC national scout at the Senior Bowl: “There are some routes here that make me feel like I am looking at a different guy than the one I saw during the year. He looks a lot more refined right now in practice.”

Few players did more to boost their stock in Mobile than McLaurin. He will have a superb combine and test through the roof. He has great character, he blocks and he has special teams value. The Ohio State offense is not attractive. It’s lots of passes into the flat, screens and short stuff — mixed in with a few deep shots. The Buckeye’s also have a wealth of dynamic receivers. It’s not a surprise McLaurin needed the Senior Bowl to show what he can do.

Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)

Full profile

Lance says: “Murray is an electric talent with a live arm, good mental makeup and the skill-set to produce at a high level in the right offense.”

He also has a great quote on Murray, suggesting he’s a “complex burgundy with notes of Baker Mayfield, Johnny Manziel and Russell Wilson in his play.” In the player comparison he chose Wilson for Murray.

Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)

Full profile

Lance says: “Highly organized and known as galvanizing locker room guy… Plays with attacking, downfield mindset.”

He also notes: “He is a confident leader who would much rather press for the big throw than play it safe underneath. His lack of plus arm talent and release quickness might not match his gunslinger mentality against an NFL secondary.”

And there’s this quote from a NFC national scout: “You really like his character makeup and his confidence and the way he throws the deep ball. What you won’t like is that so many of his throws are tied directly to scheme and pre-snap reads. His week at Senior Bowl outside of what he’s used to is going to be big for him.”

T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)

Full profile

Quote from a pro-personnel director for a NFC team: “Freaky athlete. I thought he would go back, but I’m glad he didn’t. I think he will beat Alabama (Irv Smith, Jr.) off the board first.”

Lance compares Hockenson to Travis Kelce. He’s a top-15 lock.

Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)

Full profile

Lance says: “Lindstrom is one of the most athletic interior lineman in the 2019 draft with a rare ability to match movement quickness with anyone across from him. His quickness can place him in position to make blocks on both the first and second levels and he has an impressive ability to cover lateral space and protect his gaps as a pass blocker.”

He also compares Lindstrom to Joel Bitonio — a former blog favourite. We’ll see if Lindstrom matches Bitonio’s fine combine from 2014. Was that really five years ago?!

Renell Wren (DT, Arizona State)

Full profile

Lance says: “Enticing prospect offering size, strength and athleticism to entice NFL general managers who covet elite traits over college production. Wren’s play was uneven while aligned on the nose in 2018, but he should benefit from a move to defensive tackle in an odd or even front as a pro. The cheat code in unlocking his ability and production might rest in a team’s ability to correct his hands and feet while improving recognition. With all things considered, “boom or bust” might be an appropriate tag for him.”

It’s highly appropriate. There are snaps where Wren dumps a center on his backside and looks like the Incredible Hulk. There are other plays where he’s too busy, lacks the necessary footwork to simply hold position and do his job and he’ll often become unbalanced and an easy target to block. The athletic potential is enormous but he needs work to harness it.

Gerald Willis (DT, Miami)

Full profile

Quote from an AFC personnel director: “He’s going to have to get that pad level corrected or he’s going to have a hard time staying on the field. He’s either in the backfield or getting knocked around. No in-between with him.”

Willis will test very well in the short shuttle and has excellent agility and short-area quickness. He might be limited to a pass-rushing specialist role at the next level.

Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)

Full profile

Lance says: “Jones is an extremely athletic one-gapping three-technique with the ability to play a disruptive brand of football on all three downs. His potential has never been in doubt, but in 2018 the production finally matched the talent. His body type and playing style will open him up to more feast-or-famine snaps than some of the other defensive tackles in this draft, but in the right scheme, he can become part of a swarm unit that plays on the other side of the ball.”

He’s compared to Nick Fairley. This was a really positive write-up by Lance who credited Jones’ hand-use and athleticism. Jones is actually pretty underrated by a lot of draft pontificators.

L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)

Full profile

Lance says: “Hands are equally violent and sudden… Consistent to contain when run play flows his direction… Strikes with quick extension and lock-out to keep his frame clean.”

Collier has quickly developed into one of my favourite players in the draft. He’s not the biggest or the most athletic but he’s a terror working the edge. He has long arms and knows how to use them, has enough quickness to win outside and the power to bull rush. He had a great Senior Bowl and looked the part.

Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)

Full profile

Lance says: “Long, thin pass-rush specialist who possesses elite get-off and stride length to simply outrun overmatched tackles around the rush arc and into the backfield. Burns’ edge speed and varied rush approach should translate to the league, but his skinny frame and lack of play strength are absolutely concerns moving forward.”

He also notes his “spindly limbs“, a frame that might not be able to carry extra weight, a lack of functional play strength and suggests he will have issues converting speed to power. Burns was an excellent speed rusher in college but there aren’t many 6-5, 227lbs pass rushers in the NFL.

Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)

Full profile

Quote from an AFC director of college scouting: “He’s big, can run, can cover. He’s got the talent, but I thought he was hot or cold this year. He didn’t improve on last year to me.”

I also felt this watching Wilson. He’s a player you want to like more. I came away thinking — he’s a decent prospect but why don’t I love what I’m seeing?

Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)

Full profile

Lance says: “Long, lean rush backer with above-average athletic traits that could serve him well as a pass rusher. Teams could be a little gun-shy with Miller considering the talent he played alongside and his solo season of production. What will be hard to ignore are his long arms, ability to attack the edge with speed and footwork to manufacture dangerous inside counters.”

I really like Miller. If you want a guy who can provide some value later on as a specialist rusher, this is the type of player I’m looking at. He’ll test well at the combine if he’s healthy (he was injured in the Playoff semi-final). He has the length and a frame that would make a great fit at SAM/LEO.

Marvell Tell (S, USC)

Full profile

Lance says: “Built like a tall cornerback with thin legs and arms… Able to pedal, open and sprint to top speed quickly… Tall, long and athletic… Glides around the field with desired fluidity.”

I just wonder — could he be another corner convert for Seattle?

Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)

Lance says: “Very tough and very competitive… Intimidating striker… Alpha demeanor on the field… Fiery attitude rubs off on his teammates… Good communication skills on the backend.”

He also compares him to Keanu Neal. Personally I think Neal was a fair bit better than Abram entering the league. However, this is a very positive review for the player most likely to be the first safety drafted in 2019. He’s not expected to have a great combine though which could hurt him a little.

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A section of Seahawks fans are fed up. They don’t want the team to trade down in the draft every year. The higher you pick, the more exciting it is. That’s just a fact. You’re more likely to get a hyped-up player or someone you know about.

There are three things to consider though…

1. There are never 32 ‘first round grades’ in a draft class and if you’re not picking in the first half of round one you’re unlikely to get a great player

2. For years the Seahawks haven’t picked high enough to get at the top-level talent

3. Elite talent can be found at any point in the draft

For sure they’ve traded out of range for some really good players recently. In 2017 we talked a lot about T.J. Watt. He has 20 sacks in two seasons. Seattle instead traded down multiple times and selected Malik McDowell.

With hindsight, it wasn’t a great idea.

Overall though there’s plenty of sense in the moves they’ve made.

Usually they’ve been able to acquire targeted players after moving down. Paul Richardson, Germain Ifedi and Rashaad Penny all filled specific needs. All could’ve been Seattle’s choice with their native pick. Whether you agreed with their thinking or not — they did what they wanted to do while also collecting extra stock.

They’ve found the sweet spots at different positions. A year ago they traded down from #18 to #27 and still were able to get their pick of the non-Saquon running backs. They didn’t trade out of range for the wide receivers in 2014 and they moved down a few spots in 2012 to get Bruce Irvin — the first pass rusher off the board. Bobby Wagner was acquired after a trade down in round two. Richard Sherman was acquired with a pick collected in a trade. Golden Tate was acquired after swapping picks with the Chargers.

Their average first round pick in the Pete Carroll era is #21. That includes the two picks (#6 and #14) they inherited from the Jim Mora season. Take away those two picks and their average position is #24. The Patriots are probably the only team with an average that comes out later in round one.

If you’re consistently picking in that range or later, a lot of the top prospects will be gone. You’ll be looking at a list of players where the options at your spot likely carry similar grades to the players available in round two.

In 2010 they stayed put and collected Russell Okung and Earl Thomas (wise moves). In 2012 they moved from #12 to #15 before taking the guy they wanted (Irvin). Aside from that they’ve never picked earlier than #18 overall under Carroll.

Had the Seahawks not improbably qualified for the playoffs in 2010 they probably wouldn’t have traded down in the 2011 draft. They would’ve had the #8 pick if they’d lost in week 17 to St. Louis (preventing Beast Quake ever occurring).

In 2011, 12 of the first 16 picks ended up qualifying for the Pro-Bowl in their careers. The group includes:

Cam Newton
Von Miller
Marcell Dareus
A.J. Green
Patrick Peterson
Julio Jones
Aldon Smith
Tyron Smith
JJ Watt
Robert Quinn
Mike Pouncey
Ryan Kerrigan

The only four players not to make a Pro-Bowl in the top half of round one were three over-drafted quarterbacks (Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder) and Nick Fairley (who had a solid career).

In the second half of round one, only four players made a Pro-Bowl (Cam Jordan, Mark Ingram, Muhammad Wilkerson, Cameron Heyward).

Seattle had the #25 pick that year and selected James Carpenter.

The difference between the two halves of round one is stark and highlights one of the reasons a team perennially picking later on is tempted to trade down.

The Seahawks aren’t the only team either that has identified major talent between rounds 3-7. Here’s a run down of some of the players drafted in that range between 2010-2013:

2010

91 NaVorro Bowman
95 Jimmy Graham
100 Everson Griffen
104 Alterraun Verner
120 Geno Atkins
133 Kam Chancellor
163 Reshad Jones
195 Antonio Brown

2011

70 Justin Houston
71 DeMarco Murray
77 Jurrell Casey
99 KJ Wright
129 Julius Thomas
154 Richard Sherman
180 Tyrod Taylor
191 Jason Kelce

2012

72 Olivier Vernon
75 Russell Wilson
76 Brandon Brooks
88 Nick Foles
89 Akiem Hicks
92 TY Hilton
97 Lamar Miller
102 Kirk Cousins
132 Mike Daniels
137 Malik Jackson
143 Josh Norman
171 Greg Zuerlein
225 JR Sweezy

2013

63 Travis Kelce
65 Larry Warford
69 Tyrann Mathieu
75 Terron Armstead
76 Keenan Allen
85 Jordan Reed
94 Brandon Williams
109 David Bakhtiari
130 Kyle Juszczyk
159 Micah Hyde
168 Ricky Wagner
181 Latavius Murray

Admittedly you’ve got to identify and draft these players. But clearly you can find elite talent even at the key positions (QB, WR, LT, DE, CB) at any stage in the draft.

There’s no right or wrong position to take on this really. Sometimes you’ll trade down and with hindsight wish you hadn’t. Another time you might be able to unearth the next Antonio Brown, Richard Sherman, David Bakhtiari, Geno Atkins, Keenan Allen or Russell Wilson simply because you acquired that extra stock.

The best position to take is probably that of an open mind and to reserve judgement for a good two or three years. After all, a lot of people had started to claim Seattle lost its draft magic after 2012. Yet now we can see their first two picks in 2014 have had good careers (Paul Richardson, Justin Britt). The first two picks in 2015 have developed into blue chip players for the Seahawks (Frank Clark, Tyler Lockett). Their first two picks in 2016 have become a solid 2018 starter (Germain Ifedi) and the best pass-rushing defensive tackle they’ve had in years (Jarran Reed). And in 2017 they added Shaquill Griffin, Chris Carson, David Moore and several others who could emerge as key starters in 2019.

The 2018 class is already showing promise too.

Trading down is inevitable this year with only four picks to spend. That doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing.

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The latest on Kyler Murray

Yesterday we highlighted Tony Pauline’s two-round mock draft. Today, Tony has provided an update on Kyler Murray on the ‘Journey to the Draft’ podcast.

It’s worth a listen. Although there’s a lot of negativity around Murray at the moment — mostly due to his awkward appearance on the Dan Patrick show — I still firmly believe he is the most talented player in this draft class. If the Seahawks are considering taking a quarterback early this year, as we’ve discussed a lot recently, Murray and Will Grier might be the two most likely candidates.

About the offensive line

It’s been discussed a few times in the comments section about spending a pick on the offensive line. It’s certainly a possibility. I think there are a few things to consider though…

1. I think D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy will both be re-signed. The players and the team are motivated to make this happen. Both deals should be relatively cost effective. I think everyone will be quite relaxed about the situation and I think it’ll get done. While neither player can reliably be considered a long-term fixture, both players would begin 2019 as automatic starters.

2. They have better depth than people maybe are willing to recognise. Jordan Simmons is under club control and played well as a spot starter. George Fant can back up either tackle position plus Jamarco Jones will return. There are big question marks about Ethan Pocic but he remains on the roster for now. Joey Hunt played well as the starting center against the Cowboys in week three. They could add some competition here but it’s not necessarily a priority compared to other positions.

3. It’s possible they could add more cheap veterans. A year ago they signed Fluker and Sweezy. They could follow a similar path in 2019.

4. Rookies generally struggle and need time unless they’re the best of the best (eg Quenton Nelson). A lot of Seattle’s former young offensive linemen experienced growing pains — Max Unger, James Carpenter, Justin Britt, Ethan Pocic and Germain Ifedi for example. Others adjusted quicker (Okung, Sweezy). The Seahawks benefitted in 2018 from a more experienced group. Whenever the Seahawks come to eventually replace Sweezy, Fluker and any other lineman — they might be better off looking for veteran replacements.

On the other hand, of course it is possible that they select an offensive lineman — at any stage in this draft. Pete Carroll has already stated he doesn’t believe they have any glaring needs. If a particular opportunity arises to land a quality offensive lineman they may well consider it.

There could also be a ‘sweet spot’ within this draft. The third round, for example, could provide some good value. A few teams seem to have taken to Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom. Is he around in that range? Where does Kaleb McGary land? What about Erik McCoy or Michael Deiter? Is Dalton Risner going to be available in the middle rounds? Where does Ben Powers go after a decent Senior Bowl?

There’s also Chuma Edoga who is a fascinating prospect. He was fantastic in Mobile and looked very comfortable at left tackle. He lacks some of the height and size you want from a NFL tackle (between 6-3 and 6-4 in height plus 303lbs) but he has fantastic length (35 inch arms and an 81 inch wingspan).

Edoga’s a former five-star recruit and played right tackle for USC. With Germain Ifedi and George Fant both unrestricted free agents after the 2019 season, Edoga could be someone they look to develop. He’s definitely one to watch at the combine considering how he looked at the Senior Bowl.

If the Seahawks are able to acquire an extra round three pick by trading down from #21 — they could do a lot worse than a Senior Bowl double of Chuma Edoga and L.J. Collier in the third frame.

Dre’Mont Jones continues to intrigue

For some players you just need a combine. You have to see how they test, work out what their ceiling is. Ohio State pass rusher Dre’Mont Jones is one of those players.

On tape there is an awful lot to like. He’s extremely quick off the snap, has the ability to shoot gaps and live in the backfield. If you’re able to watch his tape on Youtube — pause the video right off the snap. You’ll regularly see Jones well ahead of his team mates. His get-off is excellent.

He can swim when needed. He’s slippery to block. Jones played consistently well in 2018 with 8.5 sacks and 13 TFL’s. He also had an incredible pick-six on a very instinctive, athletic read of a shovel pass and a second touchdown on a fumble recovery.

You watch him and see a player with good size to play as a modern interior rusher. He’s definitely not an every-down defensive tackle and would likely have some issues against the run if you asked him to play that role. If you want to go big and athletic on early downs though, he could be an option to play some end and then kick inside.

Whether the Seahawks would look for a player like that a year after selecting Rasheem Green remains to be seen. A great combine could provide some clarity.

Can he run a great short shuttle? The tape suggests it’s possible. How does he measure up for size/length? Can he flash some explosive ability in the vertical and broad and can he provide an excellent 10-yard split?

He is a bit one-dimensional in terms of his NFL worth but given the way he played in 2018 and considering the importance of rushing the passer — a great combine provides him an opportunity to really boost his stock.

While other defensive linemen have stolen the headlines recently because of the Senior Bowl, Jones is one to keep in mind in Indianapolis. We’ll see if he can aid his stock with a combine to match the way he flashed during the season.

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You know this already but Tony Pauline is the best draft insider in the business. The draft wouldn’t be the same without Tony, his analysis and his information.

Today he posted a two-round mock draft. I wanted to spend some time discussing how it would play out for the Seahawks.

The mock doesn’t include any trades so the Seahawks pick at #21. They’ll almost certainly move down, possibly multiple times, to add to their league-low four draft picks. Tony has them selecting Florida State’s Brian Burns.

If they were to move down to a range between #30-40, who else would be available based on Tony’s projection?

#31 — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#32 — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#33 — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#36 — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#46 — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#47 — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#52 — Terrill Hanks (LB, New Mexico State)
#59 — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#62 — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#63 — D’Andre Walker (EDGE, Georgia)

Not included:

Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)

This would be a good looking scenario for the Seahawks. They’d be able to trade deep into the second round and find some superb options remaining on the board.

In my last mock draft I had Andre Dillard, Cody Ford and Marquise Brown as top-20 picks. Here they’re all available in the late first or second round. Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin are late second round picks while Montez Sweat and Jaylon Ferguson are still on the board too.

It’d be a fantastic opportunity to trade down and still land a significant talent.

It’s also interesting that no quarterbacks go in round two after the initial four in round one. This would present a possible opportunity for the Seahawks to take a QB in rounds two or three, as discussed recently on the blog.

I’m not sure how likely it is that some of these names will last as long as suggested. But it’s important to consider other projections and scenarios. In Tony’s mock there would be plenty of options for the Seahawks after inevitably trading down from #21.

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When we talk about a Russell Wilson contract saga and make reference to how frustrating it will be, there are many reasons for that.

At some point in the next six months Wilson’s agent Mark Rodgers will make an appearance on the radio. You’ll hear rumours and conjecture. Both sides will be striving for any leverage they can get.

And you’ll get ‘updates’ like this…

Despite fact that he is entering the last year of his contract, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks still haven't talked about a new deal for the QB, per sources.https://t.co/1XtjQm2rAN

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 3, 2019

The word ‘still’ is important here. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks still haven’t talked about a new deal.

The headline presents this as a problem. They haven’t talked. Yet realistically, why would they?

It’d actually be a surprise if they had started talking.

As we discussed last week — the eventual negotiating barometers are clear.

Russell Wilson and his team can use the franchise tag to ask for $110m fully guaranteed from 2020-2022. Why? Because if they’re willing to do what Kirk Cousins did and collect franchise tags, Wilson will receive guaranteed salaries of $30.34m, $36.41m and $43m for the three seasons.

There’s simply no pressure for Wilson to ‘secure’ his long term future. He’s incredibly rich. The Seahawks are highly unlikely to just let him walk if he picks up one injury. Even if they did, he’d be able to name his price to any prospective employer on the open market. There is no scenario where Wilson does not get a ton of cash.

So he can say, not unfairly, give me $110m guaranteed or something similar. And the Seahawks would be unwilling to accept that as a proposition. So Wilson’s team are unlikely to propose it and the Seahawks are unlikely to initiate talks knowing what the response will be.

This is business. And it takes time. Knowing when to make the first move, gaining leverage, biding your time. It’s a slow process that takes a while. Just look at 2015. A formality of a new deal with Wilson ended up taking months.

Here’s the reality of the situation. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if talks didn’t happen at all until after the draft. By that point the Seahawks have done free agency and potentially even drafted a quarterback. That would be a preferable time to open talks. They can explain to Wilson their full financial situation. By then they might have an idea on Frank Clark’s future — plus Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner. They’ll have a lot more information at their disposal and may even be able to challenge Wilson with the addition of a new QB on the roster.

‘How badly do you want to be here long term because we’re willing to draft others?’

By saying that it doesn’t mean they intend to move on from Wilson. It’s a bargaining position. The type you need to gain any kind of foothold in talks.

If no deal is forthcoming before training camp — the 2020 franchise tag amount of $30.34m is not an issue. The only problem will be if they can’t negotiate new deals with Clark, Wagner and Reed before the end of 2019 and risk losing one of those players due to the limit of one franchise tag per team.

Essentially there’s no rush here. It’s going to take a long time. We’re going to see plenty more articles like this. ‘Still haven’t talked’ will be a phrase you read a lot. Then it’ll be ‘haven’t made any ground’. Then it could be ‘Seattle considering their options’. Then it might be ‘Seahawks draft quarterback’.

It’s going to be a saga. It’ll be a battle of business. And it could go either way.

Unfortunately you’re going to get a lot of non-information about a situation that isn’t that complex to understand or work out. It’s simply a difficult deal to do and it’ll take time to conclude.

If you missed yesterday’s piece on Khalen Saunders and Parris Campbell, click here.

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Khalen Saunders tape review

Saunders was one of the big winners at the Senior Bowl. He had the backflips, the new-born baby at home. He became a story before even taking the field. Then he made a few headlines with his play.

I wanted to go back and have a closer look at his tape and pull out some highlights. He’s an incredibly impressive player with major potential. His splash-plays are fantastic. There are also some moments where there are noticeable technical flaws (hardly surprising) and maybe a nod that he’ll need some time to adjust to the pro speed and intensity. Overall he’s an exciting addition to a deep D-line class.

Let’s start with the positive plays. There aren’t many humans that can do a backflip at 320lbs. It’s not just a social media gimmick. Both on tape and at the Senior Bowl, Saunders did crazy things for a man with his size. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 320lbs defensive linemen rush the edge before with some degree of success. Saunders manages it. He covers ground quickly and wins with strength and speed.

I wanted to focus on his performance against North Dakota State seeing as they’re the best team at his level of pre-NFL football:

Here are the plays that really stood out:

0:53 — Saunders lines up over the left guard. The blocker comes off Saunders because he’s wary of the left tackle being occupied by a blitzing defensive back. The guard takes the EDGE and leaves Saunders unblocked. The running back fills the holes in pass protection and Saunders just shoves him out of the way with utter disdain before hitting the quarterback. You might expect a 320lbs lineman to win that battle especially against a runner who isn’t any good in pass-pro. The impressive thing is the way he just abuses the RB. ‘Get out of the way’. No messing about.

1:01 — This isn’t a splash play but he’s lined up over the center. He gets underneath the blocker and gains leverage with good hand placement and a decent jolt. He holds position. It ends up being a QB-run up the gut but he has nowhere to go because Saunders controls the interior. He finishes by throwing the center to the turf then stands over him to admire his work. This is the kind of play you want to see if you intend to use him as an athletic nose tackle. Can he control blockers up the middle, can he secure the interior run defense? Although not a dominating play vs a double team this was a decent look.

1:11 — Saunders rushes from the edge as a defensive end. He dips inside the left tackle and sprints to the quarterback. It’s a terrible job by the tackle who was probably surprised he was being asked to cover a 320lbs EDGE. Even so, look at the quickness and mobility at that size. He’s so smooth working into the backfield and finishing. How many guys with his size and weight move as well as this?

2:29 — This is a run play where Saunders absorbs contact and then judo throws the interior linemen to the turf before hammering the ball carrier and driving him backwards (and finally into the turf). This is exactly how you want to see a player at this level perform if you’re projecting him to the NFL. It’s a stand-out play. No issue getting off the block after initial contact. Great power to make a mismatch with the blocker. Finishes the play with a bang.

7:28 — Saunders does a great job to disengage from the center and create a clean path to the running back, dropping him for only a short gain.

10:04 — You can’t leave him unblocked. This is great quickness to exploit the blown protection (he covers 10-yards very quickly here) and then hits the quarterback to force a fumble. In the NFL he’s not going to get an invitation to hammer the QB like he did here. He’s going to have to create opportunities. Even so, it was impressive to see his quickness to get into the backfield and eliminate any thinking time before a potential throw.

There are other positive examples in this video too (including a second rush from the EDGE where he again shows quickness and a natural ability to rush the passer). I selected the above mainly for impact.

You will also notice that a lot of the highlighted plays come early in the video. There’s then a five-minute gap where he doesn’t really have much impact. I thought he tired a little after a fast start. I’m not sure if this is a conditioning thing. Is it a review of the level and how he’s probably not getting the same benefits a Clemson defensive linemen would get in terms of support staff, nutrition or facilities? Is he simply being asked to play too many snaps because he’s their best defensive player? It could be a combination of all things. Yet it was noticeable that there was a stretch in the game where he wasn’t quite as effective after a great start.

There are also some slight technical corrections that are needed. You can see his hands are quite wide when he initiates contact. On one snap he was trying to drive an interior lineman off the LOS by hooking the sleeves of his jersey. He doesn’t have great length but at 6-0 in height he should be able to get low and secure leverage. It’s vital he plants his hands inside and presses and doesn’t grab on the outside. There was one snap where the center got the better of him and he ended up on the turf as a consequence.

He’s a freaky athlete but length is not a plus so his technique will need to be on point to keep his frame clean at the next level.

Considering he can do backflips and he covers ground really well, it’s possible Saunders will have a good combine. If that happens it won’t be a shock if he sneaks into round two. At the moment though I think he’s at least a round three prospect with major potential and upside to be a force as a run stopper and pass rusher. Those types of players, at 320lbs, are highly valued.

Is he a Seahawks fit? I think in many ways he is. The way he dominates in a unique way for a big defensive tackle will likely appeal. He only has 32 3/8 inch arms though and they’ve never selected a defensive tackle with sub-33 inch arms based on my own quick research. It’s probably not a deal maker but let’s put it out there.

He might need a year or two to reach his maximum potential (similar to Jarran Reed) but there’s no doubting that even in this loaded D-line class, Saunders matches up well. It’s an appealing thought that you could line up two big, physical DT’s like Saunders and Reed together and still be able to get some pass rush from both. With Poona Ford also part of the rotation (and maybe one other) it’s a group you can keep fresh and productive.

Saunders will be one to keep an eye on at the combine. Look out for his short shuttle time — it’s a test the Seahawks seem to value at defensive tackle.

Further thoughts on Parris Campbell

The more I’ve studied Parris Campbell the more I like. In fact I think he’s seriously underrated within this draft class at a time everyone is talking about other receivers.

I wrote a bit about him here but here’s what he brings — excellent catching technique, developed routes and understanding of how to exploit a defense, sensational speed and explosive athleticism (121.8 SPARQ). He’s well sized at 6-1 and 208lbs as a converted running back.

To me, he looks like Percy Harvin with a little less suddenness but without the character red flags.

I’m starting to wonder why a consensus has emerged that Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf are two receivers worthy of top grades but Campbell isn’t. Especially in this modern NFL where misdirection, sweeps and explosive athleticism is so important.

Metcalf has really only shown an ability to get deep. Yes, his size and athleticism is really exciting. He also has a number of frustrating drops and there’s no evidence of him running any kind of variety of routes or using his size as a major weapon. Brown is incredibly dynamic, quick and savvy but he might weigh-in at 170lbs.

Campbell can get deep, settle into zones, win with quickness to separate on slants and crossing routes, you can have him run the ball in certain looks or take a sweep. He’s also well equipped to take a hit with his size.

If the Seahawks trade down into the late first instead of the early second round, I think Campbell would be a fine option for them. Good character, competitive, productive, athletic. He would provide an exciting weapon that’s different to anything else on the roster currently.

And with terrific players like L.J. Collier potentially available in the round three range, they might be willing to use the depth of this D-line class to their advantage and get a weapon early. T.J. Hockenson would also be an excellent option but increasingly it looks like he will go in the top-20.

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