The latest on Kyler Murray
Yesterday we highlighted Tony Pauline’s two-round mock draft. Today, Tony has provided an update on Kyler Murray on the ‘Journey to the Draft’ podcast.
It’s worth a listen. Although there’s a lot of negativity around Murray at the moment — mostly due to his awkward appearance on the Dan Patrick show — I still firmly believe he is the most talented player in this draft class. If the Seahawks are considering taking a quarterback early this year, as we’ve discussed a lot recently, Murray and Will Grier might be the two most likely candidates.
About the offensive line
It’s been discussed a few times in the comments section about spending a pick on the offensive line. It’s certainly a possibility. I think there are a few things to consider though…
1. I think D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy will both be re-signed. The players and the team are motivated to make this happen. Both deals should be relatively cost effective. I think everyone will be quite relaxed about the situation and I think it’ll get done. While neither player can reliably be considered a long-term fixture, both players would begin 2019 as automatic starters.
2. They have better depth than people maybe are willing to recognise. Jordan Simmons is under club control and played well as a spot starter. George Fant can back up either tackle position plus Jamarco Jones will return. There are big question marks about Ethan Pocic but he remains on the roster for now. Joey Hunt played well as the starting center against the Cowboys in week three. They could add some competition here but it’s not necessarily a priority compared to other positions.
3. It’s possible they could add more cheap veterans. A year ago they signed Fluker and Sweezy. They could follow a similar path in 2019.
4. Rookies generally struggle and need time unless they’re the best of the best (eg Quenton Nelson). A lot of Seattle’s former young offensive linemen experienced growing pains — Max Unger, James Carpenter, Justin Britt, Ethan Pocic and Germain Ifedi for example. Others adjusted quicker (Okung, Sweezy). The Seahawks benefitted in 2018 from a more experienced group. Whenever the Seahawks come to eventually replace Sweezy, Fluker and any other lineman — they might be better off looking for veteran replacements.
On the other hand, of course it is possible that they select an offensive lineman — at any stage in this draft. Pete Carroll has already stated he doesn’t believe they have any glaring needs. If a particular opportunity arises to land a quality offensive lineman they may well consider it.
There could also be a ‘sweet spot’ within this draft. The third round, for example, could provide some good value. A few teams seem to have taken to Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom. Is he around in that range? Where does Kaleb McGary land? What about Erik McCoy or Michael Deiter? Is Dalton Risner going to be available in the middle rounds? Where does Ben Powers go after a decent Senior Bowl?
There’s also Chuma Edoga who is a fascinating prospect. He was fantastic in Mobile and looked very comfortable at left tackle. He lacks some of the height and size you want from a NFL tackle (between 6-3 and 6-4 in height plus 303lbs) but he has fantastic length (35 inch arms and an 81 inch wingspan).
Edoga’s a former five-star recruit and played right tackle for USC. With Germain Ifedi and George Fant both unrestricted free agents after the 2019 season, Edoga could be someone they look to develop. He’s definitely one to watch at the combine considering how he looked at the Senior Bowl.
If the Seahawks are able to acquire an extra round three pick by trading down from #21 — they could do a lot worse than a Senior Bowl double of Chuma Edoga and L.J. Collier in the third frame.
Dre’Mont Jones continues to intrigue
For some players you just need a combine. You have to see how they test, work out what their ceiling is. Ohio State pass rusher Dre’Mont Jones is one of those players.
On tape there is an awful lot to like. He’s extremely quick off the snap, has the ability to shoot gaps and live in the backfield. If you’re able to watch his tape on Youtube — pause the video right off the snap. You’ll regularly see Jones well ahead of his team mates. His get-off is excellent.
He can swim when needed. He’s slippery to block. Jones played consistently well in 2018 with 8.5 sacks and 13 TFL’s. He also had an incredible pick-six on a very instinctive, athletic read of a shovel pass and a second touchdown on a fumble recovery.
You watch him and see a player with good size to play as a modern interior rusher. He’s definitely not an every-down defensive tackle and would likely have some issues against the run if you asked him to play that role. If you want to go big and athletic on early downs though, he could be an option to play some end and then kick inside.
Whether the Seahawks would look for a player like that a year after selecting Rasheem Green remains to be seen. A great combine could provide some clarity.
Can he run a great short shuttle? The tape suggests it’s possible. How does he measure up for size/length? Can he flash some explosive ability in the vertical and broad and can he provide an excellent 10-yard split?
He is a bit one-dimensional in terms of his NFL worth but given the way he played in 2018 and considering the importance of rushing the passer — a great combine provides him an opportunity to really boost his stock.
While other defensive linemen have stolen the headlines recently because of the Senior Bowl, Jones is one to keep in mind in Indianapolis. We’ll see if he can aid his stock with a combine to match the way he flashed during the season.
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“As Steven Ruiz highlights; only four quarterbacks since the implementation of the salary cap before the 1994 season have ever won a Super Bowl while accounting for at least 11% of their team’s cap room: Steve Young, Peyton Manning (twice, once because of an elite defense), Tom Brady (twice) and Eli Manning. Young’s victory came in the first season of the salary cap and is the record for the highest cap hit percentage at 13.1%.”
If Russell Wilson gets paid $35 million per year and the the cap is $180 million that’s an insane 20% of payroll. If you’re John Schneider don’t you have to wonder if any combo other than Belichick/Brady are capable of winning the SB with such a severe payroll handicap? The NFL has to do something to mitigate the impact of QB salaries on the cap structure. Exclude QBs from the cap calculus? Other ideas anyone?
No, this is repeatedly overplayed.
Quarterback contracts are not the same as they were in 1994. The game has completely changed. It’s an unreliable statistic and won’t mean anything in 10 years time providing the CBA doesn’t revolutionise the league.
Look at like this. What’s the alternative? Get rid of your quarterback every four years instead of paying them? Should the Chiefs just release Patrick Mahomes in two years?
And then when Mahomes hits the market should he be kicking his heels around until he takes less than 11% of the cap room otherwise he’s doomed to never win a title?
In 10 years time all the Super Bowls might’ve been won by QB’s earning mega money. It’s very possible. And then the stats look very different.
I’ve hear as recently as today that Dremont Jones is in the 260’s range of weight. How concerning is this?
It’d be great if he was 299 lbs of lean muscle but he’d also be Aaron Donald and the first pick in the draft. An NFL weight room and training table would readily get him back to 290 and I’d take that for a fast-twitch, inside-out 3-tech.
He looks about 280 to me
Watching him play, the first thought I had was that in the NFL he should play a Michael Bennett type roll. Play a 5 Tech on running downs, and kick inside on passing downs.
I know Ohio St. played him as a 3 Tech, but I think he would have to beef up too much to be that position in the league, probably taking away his quickness.
What I’m suggesting is that QB salaries be removed from the cap so that retaining the long time ‘face of the franchise’ didn’t cripple a team’s ability to acquire talent. Remove QB from the cap, lower the current cap by $30 million, and change the CBA so players can get paid by year three. I don’t see how one player making 20% of the cap is good for the game.
The way contracts are normally structured, the year one cap hit wouldn’t be anywhere near $35M, unless they really front load it. For reference, Aaron Rodgers 2019 cap hit is $26.5M.
I’ve never given the specifics a whole lot of thought, but I’ve always thought that a team should be able to designate “X” number of players whose contracts only count a certain percentage against the cap.
For example, the team picks three players and only 85% of their cap hit that season would count against the team’s salary cap. Would they be allowed to designate which players this would be applied to on a year to year basis like the franchise tag? Or would they need to pick the players and ride it out the length of their contract? Then if that player is cut before the end of the contract, would the dead cap hit only be 85% of what it should be?
Again, haven’t given it much thought.
So what if Murray were sitting there at #21? Do you take him? Or, given the lack of picks, do you still pass in favor of moving down and getting another 3rd round pick?
I think they’ll trade down in any scenario. You can’t pick only four times. If you trade down in round three you’re only going to get a late rounder.
Williams, Bosa, Allen, Oliver, Ferrell, and White, Lock, and Haskins are top ten locks. Ed Oliver and Rashan Gary are probably top 15 locks. Of the remaining group is there a player you absolutely cannot pass on at 21?
People, we are not the patriots. Stop giving suggestions based on the patriot way. We’ll never be the patriots. For a couple years we were close in a weak division just like the pats but realize that our division is closer to the afc north.
We have a great coach, BB is the greatest coach in the game and Tom Brady does a great job of executing his game plan.
Their are limitations to our offense & strengths. We run the football, play tough defense over the top and try to control the clock. It works a lot but sometimes it might be best to take what’s given. Pete uses his system as an identity, a mentality that the offense and defense can share in.
BB is fluid, the identity is doing your job, if you have to run 30 times you do that or pass 50 times than you do that. BB can tear up script on the thought and bring people in or kick them out as the game seems fit. It’s a different mentality and it works for them.
We’ll never be a system like the pats and that is okay, it doesn’t fit the mental model of our team.
All true. I can’t think of another team that is as scheme flexible as the Patriots have been. Ever, actually. Although there are some Seahawky things that are similar to the Patriot way. Trading down for example. Attempting to build a team first culture, albeit with a vastly different exterior style.
To me, when it comes to Fluker, Sweezy, and Simmons. As long as two of them healthy for each game it really doesnt matter which two are in there. The problem at the end of the year was when you only had one.
What games did Simmons start? Might go back and take a look. At this point, I’m not sold. I think it was rams, cheifs and I was at both those games so just watched the ball.
Simmons played very well vs the Rams
I really wonder if the team would be able to trade Pocic. I know, he’s looked extremely meh, but… Is there a possibility for an ‘our trash for your trash’ attempted reclamation project out there? Is there a player that just has not been able to make it work with another team that would intrigue the Hawks, and vice-versa with Pocic?
In a related note, I wonder why more NFL teams don’t try this (provided salary structures provide the ability to do so)… Our 3rd/4th year guy that hasn’t clicked for yours. If new set of eyes earls works, awesome, a guy gets to make a living… If it doesn’t, cut during training camp and everyone moves on.
I agree with Rob that Pocic just doesn’t have much trade value now. One more cheap year of his versatility to fill in anywhere on the OL in a pinch (albeit not without his flaws) and see if he can still develop is more valuable than what I think we might get for him in a trade (probably a R7).
That aside, if the Cards are crazy enough, I’d dangle Pocic and a 2020 R6 for the chance to check out Haason Reddick.
I wouldn’t mind that trade it all. It’s hard to believe Haason hasn’t done any better than he has. Worth making a trade and seeing if he has any more upside. I have to believe there’s a lot more in his tank, i’m just not sure what his scheme fit is with the Seahawks.
Round 3 and still get a hell of a prospect on the DL in this draft?
+12
After many an article read and opinions formed I think I’ve settled on what I would see as the “perfect ” offseason.
First off, I think the best way to address the pass rush issue is though free agency and what we already have in the building. The one player I really want is Anthony Barr. Imagine on early downs having clark, Reed, Poona, and green with barr, Wagner and kendricks at linebacker. Then on third down you slide green inside and have Barr rush of the edge. That is an elite pass rush and run defense and also has great depth potential with Jacob martin and naz jones.
For the draft, I would like to see a trade down similar to last year where we can Hopefully get a 3rd and 5th but still add a offensive weapon that Pete falls in love with. My personal favorites are mclaurin , Campbell and samuel. There could be many debates about what lost us the wild card game but I’m going to stick with Pete and say it was the inability to convert on 3rd down. Adding one of these receivers would Hopefully help that and one day replace Baldwin.
With their 3rd rounders I’d like to get depth at d-tackle and possibly a o-lineman though my hope is we draft drew sample to pair with dissly. The later rounds can address depth at linebacker, corner, and safety.
I’ve seen a lot of people wanting to look to the o-line but I think you shouldn’t change what isn’t broke. We have no idea what we have in jamarco Jones or if pocic will improve in his 3rd year, I have hope for him after watching the improvement from ifedi. The point I’m trying to make is next year will give a clearer picture of where we stand on the online.
I’m interested in hearing what you all think of this. Am I the only one who thinks this is the best possible scenario? I didn’t include any contract talk because I honestly don’t now enough to have a solid opinion, and I don’t want to be one of those people who has a strong opinion on something they don’t know. Anyway thanks for reading and let me know your opinions.
I love this scenario. I didn’t include Barr or any outside FA, but it’s basically exactly the plan I followed in my Seahawks mock 10 days ago:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/senior-bowl-2019-game-notes#comment-400570
Would be happy with any of those 3 WRs as well, though I prefer McLaurin.
I like your point on the OL, but also feel that in the trenches you should add a guy anytime you find one you really like and the value is right. I don’t think OL will be their first pick of the year, but if they see a guy like Edoga in R3, I could easily see them thinking two years down the road and taking him. To your point about not fixing what isn’t broke, as Rob said, you wouldn’t be drafting a guy to start right away, but to develop and fill in 1-2 years down the line.
I don’t see Sample as a R3 guy, more like R4-R5, but that’s just my opinion.
SeaMode
Great response to Sams excellent post. Glad I didn’t need to use a clever “what in the SamL are you thinking” in response to SAMs post. Fortunately no need.
Your previous post is my favorite draft scenario to date, except for the reservation I have about not picking up a good QB for contract negotiation purposes. I don’t ever want to lose Russ, but his agent negotiates like one of Michael Vick old pit bulls. Not friendly at all.
SeaMode, I’d sure like you to continue using your previous mock as a template for adjustments going forward. Man I love this blog.
Just kills me when I see so many mocks where we don’t trade down and/or have a Safety or OL as out first pick. Makes me pull my hair out!!! LOL
It’s good to take the comp picks into consideration when mocking the picks. It gives a more realistic view of where picks may land. These are two sources that are out there. I tend to lean towards the one that is employed by the league which differs somewhat. The end result would be 32 comp picks taken after Rd 3:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000933360/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2019-nfl-draft
https://overthecap.com/projecting-the-2019-compensatory-picks/
Adding those picks after the end of each round is a more realistic view of the values that you’d need for each selection.
I’m not a Dre’mont Jones fan. Unless he can play DE like you mentioned if has the length/athleticism to do that.
I’d be bummed if he was our first pick. I think your assessment was spot on. I don’t think there’s any doubt he has a good combine. Some nice flashes shooting gaps & against the pass. But I hated seeing him get absolutely HANDLED in the run game. I want interior players that can hold their ground and stack and shed blockers. The dude just isn’t tough enough for me. He’d be a nice rotational piece as an interior pass rusher but I want more with our first pick. Similar to how you don’t think Burns would have enough impact playing situationally. I want guys that can dominate the line of scrimmage, Jones ain’t it for me. Ima keep banging the drum for Tillery, much prefer his game to Jones’s.
Also, read somewhere that Edoga has some kind of attitude problem. Don’t remember where. Also, also I bet Lindstrom goes R2.
Huh? You slam Jones for not holding up in the run game, then go on to bang the drum for Tillery of all people?
When you said “Some nice flashes shooting gaps & against the pass” and “The dude just isn’t tough enough for me”, IMO you literally just gave a perfect description of Tillery.
Don’t mean to sound harsh, I’m just confused.
Jones is a far better pass rusher too. Tillery has a size advantage but drifts in and out of games and doesn’t impose himself. There are some character questions too. Jones is smaller and has a defined role as a gap-shooting, quicker inside/out type. He will be a problem in run defense at his size if he lines up inside. But he’s a good pass rusher.
Yeah man idk I think it shows in the tape who is the more powerful dude. Tillery gets washed out by the occasional double team but Jones gets put on his heels by single blockers from time to time. Tillery can bullrush straight over guys and Jones doesn’t show that from what I saw. PFF has Tillery graded as their #1 interior pass rusher so you might think jones is the far better pass rusher but not everyone holds that opinion. Jones looks more nimble more finesse Tillery looks more powerful but they are both pass rushing interior guys that have questions against the run. Maybe I’m way off but I prefer Tillery if we’re going in that direction.
Both are very good, but I agree with ya.
There’s some Chris Jones in Tillery’s game.
Ditto.
From what I have seen of Tillerey, he ends up on the ground too much for a DT. I also don’t see him playing up to his size, didn’t see him manhandle o-lineman. But, his size and athletic ability are intriguing, if he fell to the 3rd round.
That Dan Patrick Show interview was excruciating. If I was Murray’s agent, I’m crying myself to sleep every night now.
Its one thing to say “I haven’t made any decisions on my future, and that includes whether or not I will have a pro day, attend the combine, or attend spring training.” Its entirely another to throw an attitude and smugness on top with the “that would imply I’ve made a decision” to every answer. NO IT DOESN’T!! It only means you are exploring all your options and doing all you can to keep the best option open!
This was something I was really interested watching this off season but the cringe is starting to turn me off.
It wasn’t good but I also think we should try not to overreact to it. Clearly not being advised well (apparently by his dad) and he’s 21 and facing a huge decision. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
As am I. I still think he is an incredible talent and could do some amazing things int eh NFL. I do think though that the more this drags on and the more he refuses to answer simple questions, he starts costing himself money.
People can defend that all they want. No matter how you slice it, wasn’t a good look for the kid.
Nobody is defending it.
The point is — there’s also no point flipping out about a very short, awkward appearance on the Dan Patrick show.
Perspective, people.
WALL UP, I have been busy so unable to reply until now, but since he received praise at the Senior Bowl and you and a few others have mocked him to us early, I took a longer look at Terrill Hanks (vs. Minn, Utah St. 2018) and… unfortunately was not impressed overall.
What is absolutely impressive is his build. Wow! (and this was 2 yrs. ago…)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZiag8dVO0c
He also shows great athleticism and movement at his size.
That said, I was very unimpressed by his tape and feel that whoever drafts him is buying into more of a project than I might have thought. Slow to read, over-pursuit, mostly ineffective/grabby in coverage, inability to get off/around blocks and get to the action.
To sum it up, he’s got all the physical tools, toughness, motor you want, but still looks a long ways off to me as far as instincts and discipline. Maybe the coaches at NM St. just told him to kind of “go get it” since he was usually the best athlete on the field, idk.
Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have potential, and he could very well still go in the R2 range just like similar athlete/project LBs Zach Cunningham (57) and Tyus Bowser (47) did in 2017. But the Darius Leonard comps, however popular, are pretty far off IMO. Even went back and watched a college game of his, and you can see the difference, especially “upstairs”.
I tend to agree with you regarding his game tape, initially. I came to the conclusion that he was thinking too much, and not reacting. His role was to relay calls, and make sets for the defense, and man his position. In doing this, he’d take the wrong angles, and make wrong fits, and leaving gaps that are his responsibility.
The game with Utah State, when NM St. was getting their lunch handed to them, there was one point when he just stopped thinking, and started to ball out. Some guys are best suited for a leadership role and others struggle to balance things. But not having that on his table, he should excel. Pauline has him rated @ 52 also.
That’s what I appreciate about BWag. He excels in that capacity. Another person that I’ve grown to appreciate is Khalil Hodge. He reminds me so much of Bobby, but not having the speed of Bobby. Hodge is a tackling machine. He is willing to go get down & dirty in the trenches, and has great instincts weaving thru traffic. He does this and still sets up the defense. Perhaps JS & PC are planning ahead in taking Hodge to play Mic in the future??
For those reasons I’ve reevaluated the LB position a few days ago with a different outcome. Oh, thanks for bringing that sore wound I have, of losing out on Zach Cunningham. I still think having him along with KJ and BWag, would be the best LB group in the league. I also agree with you about Bryant, which will be a steal in the 3rd Rd. I’ve had him as the 3rd pick @ 84, but I’ve been tempted to have him as the 2nd pick @ 75. But, I don’t think Saunders would last to 84.
There may be another possibility of trading down with CAR to 47 for them to acquire Jaylon Ferguson, in order to replace the retired HOF Julius Peppers. I hope they trade down as many times as possible in the 2nd Rd. These are the players I hope are taken:
2. T(47) Renell Wren DT 3. T(75) Khalen Saunders DT 3. (84) Austin Bryant DE 4.T(109) Preston Williams WR 4.T(116) Jamal Peters CB/S 4. (124) Chukwuma Edoga OT 5.T(144) Khalil Hodge LB (Sr.) 6.T(180) B.J. Autry OG (Sr.) 6.T(195) Alec Ingold FB (Sr.)
They’re not going to take three consecutive defensive linemen.
I’m surprised at you Rob! You never really know what Pete & JS would do. 😉
This is by far one of the better DL talented drafts in a long time. This second tier is not that far behind that first tier, and may be a bit more hungry, because of it. The two DT prospects could multiple positions along the line. Saunders has played, very effectively, a stand up RDE.
If that talent is there, why not rebuild that formidable defense once again. Remember that 2012 DL
1.Country strong Big Red Bryant
2. Tony McDaniel
3. Clint McDonald
4. Brandon Mebane
5. Michael Bennett
6. Chris Clemons
7. Cliff Avril
8. Even O’B Schofield had fun that year.
The first (5) were impactful, trenchlike DL players that stopped the run and got after the QB.
With the addition of these two DL players Wren and Saunders to this young group, they can be more impactful than the (5) former ones mentioned in stopping the run. On run downs:
Wren could play 5Tech with the same strength as “Big Country”. Jones and Jefferson don’t have that strength to disrupt that RT and TE to stop the run. Wren has been facing double and triple teams most of his career.
Saunders can play anywhere along the line. He is that quick for his size. But, 1Tech @ right side of center, in the McDonald role, but much bigger profile would be his fit, but much quicker and stronger than McDonald. On run downs I’d have him @ (RDE)
Reed would take the 3Tech McDaniel role. Ford would take the Mebane position @ 1Tech.
That’s how they were able to stop run with the 5Tech role of Red. They were trying to implement that with Jefferson. But, it wasn’t quite impactful. Green hasn’t quite matured as yet. I think Wren would fill that role quite well.
Sorry, 2013 DL Group, not 2012.
*whispers* he ain’t Darius Leonard.
Rob, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on Austin Bryant. Some commenters here have pegged him as the value DL pick for the Hawks in R3. He certainly seems to be the “forgotten man” of the Clemson DL.
He has great size, I definitely liked the relentless motor, and he has back to back years of good production (8.5 sacks, 15 TFL). Some will say he got those numbers more because of the talent he played next to. What do you think?
I haven’t watched much, but I already like him more than Zach Allen if we are talking plus-size DEs. Seems like a guy I could envision opposite Clark to improve the toughness and defend the edge, while still offering some solid pass rush. (kind of like a bigger version of what D’Andre Walker might offer our defense)
I think he’s very good as a specialist EDGE. A nice compliment to a pass rush. Low percentage snap guy and won’t appeal to every scheme. But he just kept finding ways to make plays at Clemson.
I have no idea why they started listing him as 6-6 and 280lbs. I will be absolutely amazed if he gets close to that. The combine is big for him. If he tests well he could regain all the supposed lost stock.
Bryant is one of the most underrated players in this draft. Because of his surrounding cast he was placed in situations, or schemes, that won’t always show up in the stat sheet.
They utilized him alot in open space, to cover zones in pass coverage situations rather than rush the passer. They at times just left that to the other (3), with the occasional Lamar and Simmons, LB & S blitzes. Quite frankly, there just wasn’t enough sacks or hurries to go around for all of them, but he did get his share.
His length and football IQ is his greatest asset. His experience in championship opportunities will also help him to adjust to the pro game, and hit the field and keep running. He’s a great fit for their defense opposite of Clark. More importantly, besides applying pressure to get the QB off his spot, he is very stout against the run, unlike many speed rushers that will be picked before him. But, DGMW, he does get after the QB. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YU8_Xp8r04
Another guy I looked at that would be similar to Dre’Mont Jones in his role as an interior pass rusher and might be a sleeper in this DL class is:
Kyle Phillips, Tennessee, DT, 6036, 272, 9 5/8 hand, 33 1/4 arm, 81 wing
Hard to evaluate because they lined him up mostly at DE (where I see him as a solid run defender, but not fast enough to rush), but almost every snap I saw where he did line up at DT he made an impact. So it was easy to see IMO why they listed him straight up as a DT at the Shrine Game. His size and length also fit that role.
I recommend watching the very first play of the game below as a good summary of what he is as a disciplined, solid edge defender, then jump through and check out these plays where he lines up at DT:
Kyle Phillips (Tennessee DL #5) Vs. Charlotte 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Dwnz8DceXI
3:33- TFL
4:04- penetration
5:01- initial pushback and push-pull win
5:51- near safety
6:01- strong, tosses guard aside
7:17- holds ground vs. double team
A real lively, upbeat, genuine interview. Nice to watch.
Also, plenty of academic honors: SEC Academic Honor Roll, named to the 2018 Google Cloud Academic All-District Football Team, Semifinalist for the 2018 William V. Campbell Trophy — college football’s premier scholar-athlete award, etc. etc.
Also also, like:
I think he is going to be day #3 gem for some team. Former 5 star recruit played out of position on a bad defense most of his time at Tennessee but really came on this year when Jeremy Pruitt took over.
I saw Dane Brugler’s mock on The Athletic. He’s mocking Brian Burns to the Hawks (I think he’s restricted to no trade down in the mock) with the following:
“21. Seattle Seahawks – Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
It is highly unlikely the Seahawks allow impending free agent Frank Clark to reach the open market, but Seattle needs more pass rush help opposite him. Burns is light in the pants, but he has terrific edge speed, bend and baseline understanding of how to incorporate his hands.”
The reasoning seems good. I watched some highlight film, and he reminded me of Bruce Irvin. Does this seem reasonable to you if we don’t have any “glaring needs”?
For starters, I don’t really understand why any mock should limit trades. They happen every year. Could the Seahawks take an EDGE with their first pick? Yes absolutely. Is Brian Burns a top-25 prospect? I have major major doubts. He’s said to be 225lbs. He is very skinny. He’s a speed rusher not a complete player. He isn’t really anything like Bruce either in terms of body type and profile. He needs to have added weight by the combine and then he needs an outstanding work out to have any chance of going in the top-50. I’m massively dubious.
Rob I think you are really underestimating Burns potential an upside. He played on a bad FSU squad where he was the guy other teams schemed to block and he still had a great season. He is a more advanced pass rusher than I expected with good length and bend around the edge.
If he shows up at the combine at 225lbs then yes I agree cross him off the list and he is likely a Day #3 guy. Buy if he shows up at 240+ and tests well then I think he would have to be a consideration after the expected trade back into the late first, early 2nd.
His body type reminds me a little of Randy Gregory who I think is a fair comp physically. He was 6-5 235lbs at the combine. The difference is Burns is a much better pass rusher then Gregory was coming out of college. Not to mention none of the off field baggage.
Also in College the games I watched I thought he played the run well setting the edge and keeping containment. He is not like some skinny guy getting blown off the ball. I was surprised actually how well he used his arm length to keep defenders off. If he fills out and eventually gets in the 250 range then he should not be a liability in the run game.
I think if he is 240+ and tests well at the combine I think if the Hawks got him in the late first or early 2nd they would be getting a steal. He could come in as a situational pass rusher year #1 with his eventual potential on the upside being a double digit sack guy in 2-3 year.
If I had to pick between Montez Sweat and Burns I would take Burns all day. If Burn’s had played on a DL with talents like Simmons to take some attention I think his numbers would have be ridiculous. He has a much better motor than Sweat and does not disappear for large portions of games.
Once again this whole opinion is based on him coming to the combine at 240lbs +. If he does I think he goes top 20 to a 3-4 team with Green Bay being the likeliest landing spot.
If I had to rank pure edge rushers in this class they would be.
#1 Bosa
#2 Ferrell
#3 Polite
#4 Burns
#5 Allen
#6 Sweat
I don’t think I’m underestimating Burns at all. Players like this enter the league all the time. People get enamoured by them because the win with a speed rush in college and it looks good. NFL is a totally different game. Totally different. Very few smaller pass rushers succeed. The ones who do are surprisingly strong and explosive. EG — Danielle Hunter. The rest end up like Barkevious Mingo.
Look at Vic Beasley. He was 246lbs at his combine and had an UNREAL workout. 41 inch vertical. 10-10 broad. 1.59 10-yard split. 4.53 forty. Incredible college production. What’s he done in the league? And Burns isn’t close to Beasley’s college level — and he won’t be 246lbs at the combine either.
Not to be contrarian, but didn’t Beasley lead the league in sacks and make 1st team All Pro the year they went to the superbowl? That’s not nothing. I guess, we don’t know if hes just a flash in the pan due to his injuries…
Yes he had one good season.
And three seasons where he had the sack production of the season Jacob Martin’s just had.
I liked Beasley a lot and would welcome him to Seattle if he’s cut by the Falcons. Just pointing out his lack of overall production so far despite his amazing physical profile.
This is pretty interesting. I hate the idea of drafting for one year of production (even though it felt that way with Bruce sometimes). I’ll be super curious to see what Burns measures at – honestly, I thought that Bruce really only had the speed moves too. I don’t think I ever saw him really convert that to power or make any headway with the bull rush no matter how hard he tried.
Maybe that’s revisionist, though.
Really enjoy this thread.
He wins with much .ore than a speed rush.
Practically all of his sacks in 2018 were the same. Dip round the arc, win to the outside. He had one on a spin move (still a speed rush). He had another on an inside swim (was a speed move, didn’t engage). Another sack was earned chasing down the QB on a scramble and bringing him down one yard short of the LOS. One was an ill-advised, long bootleg by Miami where the QB just sat and waited to be sacked. On one sack against Wake Forest he jogged by the tackle and didn’t even have to do anything but wait for the QB to scramble into his path.
There’s no bull rush, no disengage, now power, no push-pull, very little evidence of him ever getting his hand on a lineman. He isn’t going to win bending the arc and dipping his shoulder over and over again at the next level. Tackles will ward him off.
I like aspects of Burns’ play. But he simply HAS to get bigger, stronger and learn to beat blockers with variety. And if he really is 225-235lbs he’ll be the first successful NFL pass rusher at that weight.
What?!? His hand usage is excellent. Stdings moves together, his footwork is terrific, Man IDK what to say if you think he’s just running around OT’s.
Show me one sack from 2018 gained via excellent hand use.
For the most part he is just running around offensive tackles. That’s not 100% a bad thing but it doesn’t often translate if it’s you calling card and are undersized. If I have the time I’ll actively detail all 10 of his 2018 sacks to illustrate that point. At least half of his sacks were identical.
And again — I’m not anti-Brian Burns. But people need to be realistic here and not fall into the classic trap of the college speed rusher. At his size he will be a unicorn in the NFL if he succeeds. He needs to prove he’s gained weight at the combine, then he needs to prove he’s kept it on a month later.
Speed rush (runs around the RT) vs Clemson — https://twitter.com/JonahTulsNFL/status/1008472896031940609
Drops into coverage, QB takes too long vs Clemson — https://twitter.com/NFLDraftDoctor/status/1091100071385546753
Two sacks here include running by the tackle and jogging by the tackle (QB sacks himself) vs Wake Forest — https://twitter.com/theACCDN/status/1054422380200681472
Spin move vs Virginia Tech — https://twitter.com/DoakWillie/status/1045155002883411968
(The other sack vs Virginia Tech was a QB scramble… Burns ran after him and tackled him a yard short of the LOS. It was one of those Russell Wilson not really a sack but is moments)
Easily swims by a tight end (and so he should) vs Boston College — https://twitter.com/dribbler4life/status/1087902246623432705
Sets up and runs by the Miami tackle — https://twitter.com/JrodDraftScout/status/1073021450167173120
Works in space, QB takes forever and sacks himself vs Miami — https://twitter.com/dribbler4life/status/1087905822041083904
I’m one sack short.
None of these are ‘bad sacks’. I’m not trying to be negative about Brian Burns. I’m trying to be realistic.
Beasley also took plays off routinely. Burns has more snaps played than just about D-lineman in this class and his production against P5 opponents is through the roof.
He was ranked 35th in the country for TFL’s.
His production isn’t a problem at all. It’s good. But it wasn’t through the roof.
He had zero TFL’s or sacks against Florida and Notre Dame — the two top-10 teams he faced.
I really don’t want to position myself as ‘anti-Brian Burns’ because I am not. But let’s be realistic here. He’ll be a unicorn if he succeeds at the next level without major work in the gym.
He led the nation in total pressures. And was 9th in total sacks.
He wouldn’t be a unicorn. Robert Mathis, Chris Clemons, James Harrison all weighed sub 245 at one point in their career. Not the most exciting list I know, but why wouldn’t a S&C team in the NFL put in work with him?
They are all very different though. Mathis is 6-2, Harrison 6-0 and Clemons 6-3. Brian Burns is 6-6. I’ve also seen his High School rivals video. He’s always been long and wiry. I suspect he struggles to add and keep weight on. He’s naturally lean and skinny. There’s a difference between being compact, powerful and built and being long limbed and stretched out and lean. I’m 6-4 myself but someone weighing 14 stone at my height and someone weighing 14 stone at 6-0 — we’re not going to be anything alike.
Furthermore — as I keep repeating on Burns — there was recent talk he weighs in the 220’s. If he arrives at the combine weighing even 230 — how can people not be concerned about that? Name me the last 6-6, 230lbs pass rusher to produce in the NFL?
I’ll say this for the fifth or sixth time because I want to make it clear — I’m not anti-Brian Burns. I hope he rocks up at the combine weighing 245lbs and puts on a show. Let’s just be realistic about what he is until that happens (while appreciating there’s a decent chance it won’t).
In defense of Beasley, who may become a cap casualty, whom I hope the Hawks keep on eye on, he played out position as an OLB in there 3-4 scheme at ATL, after his breakout season in 2016.
It wasn’t until last year that the let him put his hand in the dirt again. Things didn’t go well for him and he just might be released, if he is not willing to redo his contract. He’s still 26 yrs old, and in his prime! https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2018/12/19/18146334/vic-beasley-and-the-fifth-year-option-everything-you-need-to-know-bust-or-not-bust
They just released Alford and have limited cap space problems. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001017086/article/falcons-releasing-robert-alford-after-six-seasons
The advantage of Beasley is, if he clears waivers, he won’t count against any comp picks. Seattle does need edge help. It would be good to get experienced help that’s had 16 sacks in a season before.
I was hoping to put him beside Frank(RDE) as the right side OLB in blitz packages. Or, on the side of Bryant, the (LDE), who drops in coverage instead of rushing. His skills can be utilized, having a fresh start. He may be one that would take that one yr prove it deal. Who know what can happen.
He’s much better than Josh Allen. I like Allen as 4-3 SAM. Anything else and I think he’ll struggle. Might be the most overrated prospect in this class right now.
Agree completely. I think Allen is the most over rated prospect in this draft. I like him but when I see him mocked at #2 it makes me shake my head. I would love if the 49ers did take him at #2 though.
If you put Burns in Allen’s body he’d be right up there with Bosa.
I would bet they limit mocks from trades for a few reasons: 1) to show what each team might pick up and keep all fanbases interested – i.e. why would a Seahawks fan care about a mock draft if their team just trades out, and 2) at this point these mock drafts are just glorified big boards with a little rearranging to try and match up to team needs.
Its being reported in Minnesota that Everson Griffen may be a cap casualty for the Vikings. John Clayton really thought the Seahawks were interested in him the last time he was available. Hes 31 now and has baggage. Seems like he would be a nice buy-low candidate for the Hawks. Also, Pete Carrol may be the perfect style of coach for him at this point in his career. Thoughts anyone?
Pete had him at USC. Interesting he didn’t draft him given his big fall
His mental health issues were well documented here in Minnesota. Can he be trusted? How many players are you willing to take that gamble on? Tremendous upside though, no doubt.
Was just looking at the 2010 draft.
Navarro Bowman was pick #91
Jimmy Graham pick #95
Everson Griffen pick #100
Geno Atkins pick #120
Kam Chancellor pick #133
Reshad Jones pick #163
Antonio Brown pick #195
It’s why I don’t ever have any issue with this team trading down. You can find talent at every level of a draft.
Rob et al, have you watched Missouri DL Terry Beckner? Former 5 star recruit. Tore ACLs in both of his knees in freshman and sophomore season. Serious mental fortitude to come back from that. Disruptive interior presence with good size (300lbs). Has a nasty swim move. Would recommend his tape against Florida: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrAan7dhlEk
Clearly, a lot will depend on his medicals. And the combine. But again, here is another very intriguing DL prospect that could be had on Day 2. More and more, the clues are starting to signal that Seattle doesn’t have to rush DL.
I haven’t seen him but will take a look
Very interested to hear what you think. He was a team captain and considered one of the better run defenders in the SEC. From watching his tape it looks like his motor is sort of hot and cold. That could be an issue for him. But the talent is certainly there. I’ve watched three games of his now and he has shown up big on third and fourth downs.
Didn’t he have a few ACL tears? He is a leader of men though. I hope he stays healthy.
Rob, curious if see patriots as a potential trade partner up to 21 if TE Hock is available there? Not sure what return, but he just seems like someone they feel they need, especially with Gronk possibly retiring.
I think that would be possible. I think a lot of teams would be willing to move up for Hockenson.
I think his floor will be #19 to the Titans though and after the combine I’d expect Hockenson to be considered a top-20 lock.
Kicker Matt Bryant from Falcons is available, would you sign him?
Possibly, but this might also be a situation similar to Seabas this past year. An older kicker who’s been very good in his career, but starting to wear down now. If we can’t find a young, quality kicker for the next 5+ years then lets give Bryant a chance on a prove it deal.
Absolutely.
I love what Murray does. Hope he falls and the Hawks can pick him:D I wouldn’t be happy if they’d pick Grier in rd2. I don’t think Grier is a franchise QB ever. I even doubt he’s a starter. He can be a really quality backup, but I have my doubts for any more than that.
But I wouldn’t mind picking Murray in the second. He could push Russ soon to sign and play better. Let the competition begin. And I think Murray could have better trade value. So yeah, I’d like him to fall into the Hawks range.
As for OL: I like Swuker (Sweezy + Fluker). But they are always hurt. I like Simmons. But he only played a little. I like Fant, but he’s not a starter at OT. I like Jones, but he didn’t show anything yet. I don’t think Hunt played well, he was overpowered a couple of times. I don’t trust Pocic.
Maybe we could try Pocic at C and draft an OG to back up Swuker with Simmons? Vets are OK, but they usually either suck bad or really-really expensive. Even the guards start to become more and more costly.
I thought about height. Most teams like their lineman 6-4 and over. Would it be bad if Hawks would try to look for short (from 6-1 to 6-3 guys), but powerful guys with solid techniques? Might be easier to find solid guys because some of the team will remove these dudes from their board because of their height. And it would help Russ see through their OL.
And smaller guys might be able to create better leverage. Obviously, they need to be big and strong…just shorter than usual…Thoughts?
As for DL: I don’t hate Jones, but stopping the run was spotty for the Hawks. So I hope it’ll be a priority. So cool, draft Jones, but get at least another guy who’s great against the run
Sweezy played 15 games and Fluker 10. I think it’s a bit much to say they’re always hurt.