
Like it or not, a decision on Jamal Adams’ is forthcoming
For the Seahawks and Jamal Adams, the next six games are crucial.
With a not overly daunting schedule, Seattle can still emerge as the team with the best record in an unpredictable NFC.
They also need to determine what the future holds for their big name safety.
The scheme fit. The future contract. The fact the Seahawks have three 2021 draft picks, $16-19m in projected cap space and only 34 contracted players.
There’s a call to make. A bigger one than most people realise.
Ideally you’d have more time. Seemingly nothing about 2020 is ideal, however.
By March, a decision is likely due.
Let’s start with the scheme.
By Adams’ own admisison, this is a relationship that is still trying to work things out:
“They’re still trying to figure out me just as much as I’m still trying to figure out the defense and everything.”
In the six games he’s played this year, Adams has 5.5 sacks. On paper that’s a big positive and actually puts him among the league leaders in the category.
However, he’s also blitzed 63 times in those six games. His average of 10.5 blitzes per game is by far the most in the league.
He has delivered 17 pressures — 2.8 per game. He also has seven hurries — 1.2 per game.
Therefore it’s fair to describe Adams as a very productive blitzer. If he is producing about three pressures, a hurry and a sack per game — that’s a positive tally.
Seattle’s isn’t traditionally a blitzing scheme though. His role as a heavy blitzer isn’t something we’ve seen this team do before.
Having an aggressive, freelancing player does come with a consequence and I think we saw that against Arizona.
Suddenly a scheme that has always preached ‘do your job’ is carrying a player who seems, mostly, to be playing with instinct. Take the Chase Edmunds touchdown last Thursday. He released out as a receiver and was alone in the end zone, with Adams standing in no-man’s land, arms aloft. It’s the kind of coverage bust you just don’t see that often.
Per PFF, Adams is currently carrying a fantastic pass rushing grade (79.8). However, his coverage grade (44.5) is extremely poor. His overall grade (57.0) is comparable to Quandre Diggs — who most people would accept has had a difficult second season.
Adams is giving up 12.8 yards per target — third most in the league. He’s giving up 16.3 yards per completion — 14th most in the league.
As a point of comparison, Bradley McDougald gave up 6.2 yards per target and 11.5 yards per completion in 2019. That’s a stark difference. When quarterbacks targeted McDougald last year, their rating was 58.8 — one of the lowest in the league and comparable to Tyrann Mathieu (57.8).
McDougald didn’t provide the sacks (he recorded only half a sack last season) but he only blitzed 21 times in 15 games. Adams has already tripled that number in nine fewer games.
McDougald’s PFF grade a year ago was 63.1 as a pass rusher and 64.5 in coverage. So while he clearly isn’t reaching Adams’ rating as a blitzer — he delivered an average performance level for the safety position.
You could speculate that McDougald’s role as a more traditional strong safety is one of the reasons why Quandre Diggs performed better in 2019. I haven’t studied Diggs enough to comment but it stands to reason that if his safety partner is blitzing at the rate Adams is — that’s putting a lot more strain on him as the free safety in coverage.
Again, this isn’t something we’ve seen from the Seahawks before. Kam Chancellor had two career sacks — one in 2010 and one in 2011. From the 2012 season through to 2017 — Chancellor didn’t record a single sack in 78 regular season games. He did have 12 career interceptions though. In Adams’ four year career so far, he has just two interceptions and 17.5 sacks.
It’s not just that Chancellor, McDougald and Adams have physical differences. Adams is being used in a totally different way than any other strong safety in the Carroll era.
Greg Cosell appeared on Colin Cowherd’s show on the day of the Arizona game. He was asked about Adams and the Seahawks defense and offered the following opinion:
“I think Jamal Adams is a linebacker. And I think at the end of the day in some ways, and maybe Seattle would tell me I’m crazy, but I think that limits some of the things you can do with him because he is really a linebacker not a safety. He’d almost fit perfectly to me in Bill Belichick’s defense with the way they use #21 Adrian Phillips who’s really a linebacker for them. So to me that’s what Jamal Adams is but when you use him as a safety I think it presents some limitations in coverage. He’s a linebacker, he’s a glorified linebacker.”
That review doesn’t exactly portray a precise fit for Adams within Seattle’s scheme.
Does he fit in? At the moment it’s hard to argue that he does — at least enough to justify the compensation of the trade and a big future contract. That perspective could change before the end of the season but ultimately time is running out.
He’s clearly a very talented individual. In the right situation he is an All-pro.
This is about the cost and fit. Does he suit the Seahawks? Even if the answer is yes — does he suit them enough to pay him a massive salary?
It’s assumed by some that there’s no real urgency regarding Adams’ future due to the security of the franchise tag. I’d argue a decision needs to be made at the end of the season — essentially giving the Seahawks six more regular season games and a playoff run to make a call.
The current highest paid safety in the league is Budda Baker ($14.75m a year). Adams will expect, not unfairly, to top that number.
The trade compensation that the Seahawks gave up creates a problem.
We saw with the Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey trades that if you spend multiple first round picks on a player and don’t have an oven-ready contract to sign, you cede all leverage in negotiations.
Tunsil agreed a deal worth $22m a year. That was $6m more expensive than the next highest paid left tackle on $16m. The Texans either had to cave to Tunsil’s demands or risk losing a player they’d spent a fortune on in draft picks.
Ramsey signed a record contract for a cornerback worth $20m a year in LA. The previous highest paid corner was Darius Slay on $16.8m a year in Philadelphia. Again, the Rams had little choice but to accept Ramsey’s demands.
It’s very difficult to drive a hard bargain with a player once you’ve traded multiple first round picks to acquire them.
It wouldn’t be unrealistic for Adams to ask for a significant increase on Baker’s top salary. A deal worth $18m a year is plausible. Maybe he feels generous and is willing to simply set a new record for a safety and go with about $16m a year? That would still be a princely sum.
And make no mistake, that’s the minimum you’ll end up paying.
If you’re going to commit that amount of money, you’ve got to be sure about the fit.
The Seahawks already know this. They chose not to pay Frank Clark $20.8m a year and traded him to the Chiefs. They chose not to pay Jadeveon Clowney. They did decide they wanted to break the bank for Bobby Wagner.
They’ve taken on difficult financial challenges before and been calculated and deliberate in their decision making — with mixed results.
They now face a big call with Adams. They can’t let pride get in the way. Yes — it would look somewhat embarrassing to trade a player months after acquiring him in a blockbuster deal.
However — the only thing worse than taking that on the chin will be absorbing the cost of an enormous contract for a player who doesn’t provide value for money.
Personally, I wouldn’t criticise the Seahawks at all if they decided to trade Adams in March and took a hit on the compensation. If they come to the conclusion he just isn’t the kind of fit that justifies a record-breaking salary, then the right thing to do is be proactive and move on.
It’s OK to take a chance and it not work out.
The entire NFL is facing a financial crunch due to coronavirus. The salary cap could drop to $175m in 2021 — putting severe pressure on most teams.
Every dollar is going to count. It’s not an overreaction to suggest smart cap management will decide the winners and losers over the next 3-5 years.
In an ideal world the Seahawks would have more time to assess Adams’ fit. However, the cap crunch is coming now. Not in 2-3 years. It’s on the horizon.
Adams has a cap hit of $9.8m in 2021. He could be franchised the following year for about $11-12m depending on the state of the league at the time.
I’m not sure you want to get into a scenario where you’re going year-to-year. It’s a situation few players take well to. They want long term security. Part of Adams’ issue with the Jets was their unwillingness to reward him financially. I’m not sure he’d be any more willing to entertain a similar reluctance from the Seahawks.
I think Seattle has two options. They need to be prepared to pay him this off-season and commit to him, or they need to move on.
I also can’t help but wonder if they’d be investing in the wrong position.
We’ve already seen how a great D-line can make Seattle’s defense tick. Remember the days of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and one of Chris Clemons or Frank Clark? Remember the rotation they had in 2013?
Look at the impact Carlos Dunlap is having. For all the talk of building from back-to-front prior to the start of the season, I think we’ve all seen by now how important a pass rush is within this specific scheme, given it relies on a four-man rush.
Are the Seahawks better with Adams at say $18m a year — or would they be better off investing that money in the D-line to try and create a loaded front?
After all, aren’t we a year removed from the 49ers rolling to the Super Bowl with this exact defensive scheme while boasting a fantastic defensive line rotation? All while having a slightly suspect secondary?
It’s a worthwhile discussion to have — even if you’d prefer to keep Adams.
After all, look at the players who are scheduled to reach free agency or could be cut or traded for cap purposes:
Von Miller
Matt Judon
Leonard Williams
Fletcher Cox
Brandon Graham
Derek Barnett
Cam Jordan
Dante Fowler Jr
Grady Jarrett
Melvin Ingram
Shaquil Barrett
Bud Dupree
Jadeveon Clowney
Yannick Ngakoue
Ryan Kerrigan
Sheldon Rankins
Larry Ogunjobi
Remember, the likes of New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta are tens of millions of dollars over the cap for 2021. They will have to act. In the case of the Saints, they might have to gut their roster and start again.
The thought of pairing Von Miller with Dunlap is very appealing. Combined with Seattle’s youth at defensive end — you could create a rotation that is a match for anyone in the NFC.
Could you go down that route and simply replace Adams with Marquise Blair (a player you spent a second round pick on to play safety) or could you potentially target someone like Keanu Neal (who is also scheduled to be a free agent)?
It’s also a good looking draft at the safety position with the likes of Andre Cisco, Paris Ford and Jevon Holland among a decent group.
Again — this isn’t a review of Adams’ talent or a witch-hunt against the player or the trade. It’s simply a team construction debate about what’s best for the future.
You might ask who would trade for Adams?
In the right scheme he is a fantastic talent. It’d be wrong to think there wouldn’t be suitors. You probably won’t get two first round picks but a deal similar to the Frank Clark trade isn’t out of the question.
He was born to play in the aggressive, attacking 3-4 schemes or, as Greg Cosell noted earlier, those from the Bill Belichick way of doing things featuring a lot of hybrid players.
Adams would be superb in Brian Flores’ scheme in Miami. The Dolphins were unrealistic trade partners when he played for the division rival Jets. Now? He’s a more realistic option.
Miami also has two first round picks in 2021. Would they be willing to part with their native selection (possibly in the 20’s) plus a 2022 pick? That could make a lot of sense.
They also have the cap space ($37m) to extend him and will feel the benefit of Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie deal for the next few years.
The Patriots have $64m to spend in 2021 even with the significantly lower cap. Adams would be a great fit for Belichick. However, they might be picking too early in round one to make a deal realistic.
The Ravens are very much in win-now mode. They have a heavy-blitzing scheme where Adams would thrive and an estimated $29m in cap space. They would be a strong option.
The Buccaneers are also very aggressive in terms of roster building. They are living in a small window with Tom Brady as quarterback. Adams would be an ideal fit in a Todd Bowles scheme he’s already familiar with. The Buccs will be picking later in round one and might be willing to make an aggressive move. They have $31m in available cap space for 2021.
It’s also not unprecedented for players to be traded multiple times for high picks. Brandin Cooks went from New Orleans to New England to LA and then Houston. Teams have spent three first round picks and a second rounder for his services. Sam Bradford was traded twice — once for a second round pick and Nick Foles, then for a first round pick.
Certain players seem to retain value.
It stands to reason that if the Seahawks are going to give Adams a whopping contract worth anywhere between $16-18m they should at least utilise a defensive scheme that plays to his strengths. That simply isn’t Carroll’s scheme. If they decide to go down that route they have a duty to consider major structural changes to the defense — with a new defensive coordinator, possibly from the Belichick tree, to come in and oversee things.
That sounds great on paper — yet look at the teething problems Dallas have experienced going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this year, having spent years acquiring players for the 4-3.
The Seahawks aren’t going to be $96m over the cap like the Saints in 2021 but they have very little money to spend. Spotrac says around $16m, Over the Cap says $19m (with $8m in effective cap space). With only 34 players contracted, that money will evaporate quickly simply filling out the roster.
With only three draft picks in 2021 and no first rounder, it’s going to be extremely difficult to fill out the depth with cheap, young talent.
Something’s got to give. How can they fill out their roster with minimal cap space and draft stock?
Increasingly I think the Adams trade was a highly aggressive, win-now move. An opportunity to see if he could come in and deliver the kind of major impact they’d been unable to acquire in free agency or the draft. The main motivation was to win now — chase a title in 2020.
I suspect they knew they were investing in someone with retainable value and all options would remain on the table in the off-season.
When the season ends the Seahawks have to make a big decision.
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