Russell Wilson’s vision for the offense could be very different to Pete Carroll’s
Warning!
If you are easily triggered by speculative articles relating to your favourite quarterback, you might want to sit this one out.
Right, if you’re still with me, here it goes…
What’s the lay of the land with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks?
Clearly at the moment all thoughts are focused on the post-season. The win against the Rams secured the NFC West for the first time since 2016.
I do wonder, though, whether the next few weeks could have an important impact on the long term relationship between team and quarterback.
Let me explain…
Following the week one victory in Atlanta, Mike Florio appeared on Sunday Night Football and revealed that Wilson had told the Seahawks ‘let me cook or we’re going to have a problem’.
He then followed that up on PFT the next day:
I wrote an article in September detailing why it’d be foolish to dismiss Florio’s reporting on anything to do with Wilson because he has a strong connection to Mark Rodgers (Wilson’s agent).
The report from Florio, which has never been denied or contradicted, followed a prolonged off-season monologue by Colin Cowherd who argued throughout the summer that Patrick Mahomes has an offense tailored to him and input in Kansas City’s draft picks.
He made an unflattering comparison to Wilson’s situation in Seattle:
Florio and Cowherd have something in common. A source.
For Florio, it’s Rodgers.
For Cowherd, it’s Wilson. They talk. Wilson has appeared on his FS1 show numerous times.
Whether you like him as a host or not — when he specifically talks about how Wilson feels about a particular situation, you have to acknowledge they are close.
After all, how realistic is it for Cowherd to say some of the things he has about Wilson’s future and his relationship with the Seahawks — only for Wilson to then appear on his show as often as he does? If Cowherd was talking nonsense and making stuff up, that likely wouldn’t happen.
It doesn’t take much dot-connecting to go from Cowherd’s take to Florio’s report. Wilson made the team very aware of his preferred method of offense, possibly in the form of an ultimatum, and it’s likely he craves the kind of status Mahomes has with the Chiefs.
Wilson wanted Seattle to add ‘superstars’. Wilson wanted to cook. The Seahawks let him cook. It worked for a few weeks, until it didn’t any more.
Whoever or whatever was to blame — Wilson, Brian Schottenheimer, Seattle’s opponents, injuries, an inability to adjust — the Seahawks had a prolific start to the season and then a crash.
Wilson turned the ball over more than he’s ever done before and Pete Carroll has clearly decided that, once again, he’s going to do things his way.
In recent games the passing offense has been much more conservative. It’s a far cry from the first few weeks of the season. The Seahawks are back to protecting the football and if anything — the passing game is now trying to complement the defense and the running game, rather than the other way around.
Wilson is back to being a point guard too. In his first nine games of the season, he averaged 310 passing yards a game and scored 28 touchdowns. Since that ninth game, against the Rams, he’s averaged 207 yards per game and thrown only 10 touchdowns — with four coming against the New York Jets.
Carroll is purring about the switch in his press conferences. Rightly so, in fairness. The Seahawks appear to be playing a sustainable brand of football for the first time this season — the type that typically succeeds in the playoffs. This is his brand of football. A complete circle. Everything connecting.
In his eyes, this is how you win. While the Seahawks will no doubt happily ask Wilson to try and rescue them through the air if they get into another playoff hole — it seems inevitable that they will go into the post-season with renewed clarity on what Carroll wants his team to be.
I think he’s had his fill of the ‘Let Russ Cook’ approach. That’s just my hunch. I think he has seen a much more connected team in recent weeks and whether it’s the right decision or not — I think we know by now this is what he wants.
I don’t know how Wilson will feel about that. Clearly if it delivers a Super Bowl in a few weeks time, it’ll be a moot point. If they lose in the Wild Card round playing the way they did against Dallas in 2018, it could be an issue.
For many this is a taboo subject. A lot of people want to imagine that Wilson merely sees it as a privilege to play for the Seahawks. That the consistent winning seasons are enough, that he has no further wants or desires.
I think the near-ultimatum reported by Florio and the purported envious glances towards Mahomes speak to it not being as simple as that.
Wilson only gets one crack at a NFL career. He will have his own ideas on how he wants it to be shaped.
Maybe you’ll disagree with this but Andy Reid’s vision is Mahomes’ vision. Matt LaFleur, as far as I know, isn’t running an offense that isn’t conducive with MVP numbers for Aaron Rodgers. The offense in Baltimore is tailored to Lamar Jackson. Deshaun Watson is about to pick his own coach.
Seattle is different. Wilson fits into Carroll’s vision. It isn’t the other way around.
I’m not trying to imply that the two parties don’t respect each other. I think Carroll loves Wilson and vice versa. I also believe that players and teams, in all kinds of sports, sometimes want a fresh start.
Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. It happens though.
I don’t think it’s completely unlikely that there will come a time where Wilson decides he wants a change. I also think, when that time comes, the Seahawks will be pro-active.
Again, I will stress, that winning solves everything. Super Bowls keep everyone happy. Another playoff disappointment, however, playing a Carroll brand of offense, could create an interesting situation. Not necessarily for 2021 but perhaps beyond that (as I’ll explain later).
Wilson and the Seahawks have had a bit of a weird relationship for some time.
The two contract negotiations he’s had with the team were protracted and difficult.
There’s also been consistent chatter for going on three years that a trade could happen. You have to admit, this is unusual for a franchise quarterback during his peak years.
Prior to the 2019 draft, leading NFL insider Adam Schefter suggested that Wilson could be traded:
In the video above you’ll also notice Jack Del Rio mentioned he had also heard similar whispers doing the rounds. Schefter followed up those remarks on ESPN with this report — adding at the end that the Seahawks would listen to trade offers for Wilson.
This isn’t ‘clickbait’. This isn’t Florio or Cowherd either. It’s Adam Schefter — the definitive breaker of news in the NFL.
Another established journalist with proven connections to Seattle, Mike Garafolo, also reported that Seattle was willing to draft a quarterback early in 2019, ‘preparing for a potential life without Wilson‘.
A year earlier, it caused a bit of a stir when John Schneider was seen attending all of the pro-days of the leading quarterbacks available in the 2018 draft.
Chris Simms revealed on NBC earlier this year that he had heard from sources he trusted that Seattle talked to Cleveland about acquiring the 2018 first overall pick. Simms claims the Seahawks were willing to trade Wilson for the rights to the #1 selection (and presumably more).
Browns coach at the time, Hue Jackson, later said he hadn’t heard anything of that nature (although it’s worth remembering that he and GM John Dorsey had a frosty relationship).
Florio, who works with Simms at NBC, followed up the story:
Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Browns contend that the idea was “floated” conceptually, but that the discussion did indeed happen. At the time, the Seahawks were staring at another extension for Wilson, one that would result a year later in a contract with a new-money value of $35 million per year. And the placement of a no-trade clause in the latest contract was indeed influenced by chatter regarding the potential trade to Cleveland, we’re told.
The point on the no-trade clause is important. Whenever anyone brings up the possibility of Wilson being dealt, fans quickly point to the clause as a reason why it can’t happen.
This is a misunderstanding of what a no-trade clause is.
It is not a handcuff for the player and team. It purely prevents the Seahawks from trading Wilson to an undesirable location. Per Florio’s report, the main motivation for including the cause was to avoid him being traded in the future, against his wishes, to a team like the Browns.
However, this clause can easily be waived. If Wilson wanted to be traded to a team or location, all he needs to do is waive the no-trade agreement. By insisting on the clause, he simply has control over his future.
Florio validates Simms’ suggestion that talks between the Seahawks and Browns took place. So while you might dismiss both individuals and their credentials when it comes to legitimate breaking news — it’s a bit of a stretch to think this idea was made up, backed up and never denied. Nobody else, aside from Hue Jackson, has contested these talks took place.
In 2019, Cowherd did a whole segment suggesting that Wilson ‘fancied a trade to the New York Giants’:
“So just remember this, a lot of things add up. Last year of Russell’s contract, his wife would prefer New York, Seattle is not an entertainment Mecca. New York needs, the Giants need, a star quarterback to replace Eli. Also Russell Wilson, good looking guy, classy guy, incredibly marketable and kind of buried in the Pacific North West. And the Giants also have an offensive head coach, not a 66-year-old defensive head coach.”
Wilson himself somewhat added fuel to the fire when, shortly after Cowherd’s take was aired, he appeared on Jimmy Fallon’s TV show. Not exactly a platform for a hotbed sporting discussion, Fallon asked Wilson about contract negotiations and a potential switch to the Giants. Helping out the guest, no doubt.
Personally I think in both instances — with Cowherd and Fallon — it was ‘negotiating through the media’. It happens all the time. The Seahawks dabbled in that tactic too. If anything, it was indicative of how fractious things became. Seeing both parties trying to gain leverage in the media was unpalatable — especially when other teams and other quarterbacks have since been able to get deals done with minimal drama.
I’m not convinced a trade to the Giants was ever realistic or likely. It does show, however, that the prospect of a trade was being used in negotiations.
Whether it was Wilson showing a bit of leg to the Giants or the Seahawks being willing to contemplate moving him to Cleveland the year before — both parties were prepared to use the threat of a trade to get what they wanted.
The prospect of a Wilson trade re-emerged again in May this year, when Florio reported the following:
Some who are close enough to the situation to know what may happen believe that Wilson eventually will be traded. Intriguing potential destinations would include, in our view, the Cowboys, Raiders, and Saints. (Or, as Simms says, any team “that doesn’t try to establish the run for three quarters and then ask him to save them in the fourth.”)
Still only 31 and determined to play until he’s 45, Wilson may not have to wait until his fifth decade (like Tom Brady) to land in a new place. Some think it’s just a matter of time before he’s traded by a team that talked about trading him just two years ago.
It’s impossible to deny that for the last two or three years, there’s been a regular murmur about a possible trade in the media. Many fans will dismiss it because they don’t want to contemplate it. It is simply a fact that, unlike any of his true peers, Wilson has been talked about as a potential trade candidate for some time.
That’s uncomfortable to think about but it’s out there. No smoke without fire.
That’s why, occasionally, I want to write about it. You just don’t see this with other top-level quarterbacks. Not in their prime.
I think it’s intriguing. Even if a trade never materialises — I think we should discuss why this gets talked about as much as it does.
From Wilson’s perspective, he might like the idea of playing in a huge market. A prospective suitor could, potentially, offer him a bigger say in personnel and draft decisions.
Mahomes was consulted on Kansas City’s first round pick this year and he personally recommended Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Meanwhile in Tampa Bay, Tom Brady has basically dictated the signing of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown — despite neither position being a need for the Buccs. They were simply guys Brady wanted.
A new team would presumably build the roster how Wilson wants. They’d play his brand of football. He would be in control — with no Head Coach dictating the style or identity of the offense.
In return, that team would receive a huge commercial boost.
Can I imagine a scenario where Wilson moves to a new city in a big market, basically becomes king of the franchise and is able to dictate every facet of the way the offense functions? Yes.
Can I also imagine a scenario where the Seahawks decide they can draft a quarterback and make a huge cap saving, acquire a ton of picks to load up the roster and free up money to make some key free agent additions? All the while zoning in on Pete Carroll’s preferred identity for his franchise? Yes.
And I do believe how the rest of this season plays out could potentially steer both parties towards that.
If they win playing Pete-ball, none of this will be relevant. First and foremost Wilson wants to win and if he’s doing that, I doubt anything else will really matter.
If they go into the playoffs and suffer an all too familiar experience of trailing early playing a certain style and needing Wilson to try and save the day (and failing), then things could get interesting.
It’s also important to look at the reasons why this won’t happen any time soon.
The first is obvious — money. In 2021, the Seahawks would absorb a $39m cap charge by trading Wilson ($7m more than his $32m cap number). By 2022, the cap charge falls to $26m, $11m less than the cap charge if he’s still on the team.
So a trade is far more likely after the 2021 season than it is before and there are two seasons to conclude before then, so who knows what’s going to happen?
It would also be a huge gamble. Trading away the best quarterback the franchise has ever had? Trading away an icon?
It would be a stunning move.
If it didn’t work out you’d forever be known as the decision maker (Carroll) and GM (Schneider) who traded away Russell Wilson. You also look like geniuses if it does work. If anyone was going to do it, it’d probably be Carroll and Schneider. They’re bold enough to make a call like that. There’s a big difference, however, between talking about a trade of this magnitude and actually doing it.
You also run the risk of growing pains with a young replacement that could zap Carroll’s final years in Seattle.
When Chris Simms speculated on the Seahawks/Browns trade earlier this year, he added that they would’ve drafted Josh Allen first overall if the deal had materialised.
Personally, I can see that. Allen was basically the prototype for the position based on Schneider’s checklist of physical attributes.
While Allen has gone on to develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, he also experienced two challenging seasons to begin his career. Are the Seahawks willing to endure a similar experience, reducing Carroll’s title timeline to maybe a couple of seasons at best?
It seems unlikely — especially given neither Zach Wilson or Justin Fields are particularly close to the Schneider physical prototype. And while Justin Herbert has looked terrific with the Chargers, he’s very much a unique case rather than the norm.
I also struggle to imagine them adding another veteran quarterback. It’d be a hard sell to the fanbase, trying to pitch a Carson Wentz reclamation project or a last dance for Matt Stafford to replace the best player on the team.
While Wilson might privately desire to play a different brand of football and while the Seahawks might be fully prepared to contemplate life without him (as they seemingly have in the past) — the two parties have also been really good for each other.
Prior to Wilson’s arrival, the Seahawks were 7-9 in both 2010 and 2011. Granted that was with a young, developing team. They’d also probably add a better replacement than Tarvaris Jackson (RIP) if they made a move.
However, there’s a lesson to be learnt there. Without Wilson this was a team left trading significant resources for Charlie Whitehurst, hoping Jackson could provide a solution and then signing Matt Flynn. Returning to those days would be a surefire way to slam shut Seattle’s Championship window.
The bravado of being prepared to trade a franchise quarterback in the midst of a contract negotiation could easily be replaced by panic if they did actually pull the trigger without having a ready made, quality replacement in the pipeline.
For Wilson it’d also be a big risk. He may well prefer to ‘cook’ than point guard his way through Carroll’s preferred vision. He might crave Mahomes’ power and control. Not to mention his contract.
Yet in Seattle he’s only known winning seasons and a top notch culture. You don’t get to take that somewhere else. However appealing the bright lights of a city like New York might be — you can still only play for the Giants or the Jets. They’ll still be the Giants or the Jets if you get to help pick the skill players in the draft or free agency, or throw the ball 50 times a game.
The Seahawks also tried a pass-heavy offense and while it worked for a few weeks, it never felt truly sustainable. Seattle has also recently improved the offensive line and delivered a receiver in D.K. Metcalf who any quarterback would want to play with.
So while I think it’s a thought worth delving into, I also think it’s highly unlikely that Wilson goes anywhere in the near future.
I do think one day though, there will likely be a time when Wilson is playing somewhere else. It happened to Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Tom Brady and others.
Even the legends of the game rarely stay with one team forever. Especially when they play for a long time — as Wilson says he intends to.
A trade in 2021 is unlikely. Beyond that? We’ll see.
I think it’s a topic worth being open minded about. There’s simply been too much media chatter about a possible trade over the years to ignore. There’s nothing wrong with talking about it now, either. Discussing ideas, contemplating scenarios. Wondering what the full consequences of success and failure in the post-season are.
That’s what a place like this should be for.
If you got this far with the article, I suspect you appreciate that.
Happy new year to all.
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