The San Francisco 49ers hit the jackpot in 2022. With the final pick in the draft they added a starting quarterback. It’s always more luck than judgement when you find a player in that range (if the Niners thought he would be what he’s become they would’ve taken him earlier) but Kyle Shanahan and co. deserve credit for their part in developing Brock Purdy.
The Trey Lance trade could’ve been a career-ender for Shanahan and GM John Lynch. Instead that gaffe was more or less brushed aside. They found a player to fill the void of the top-five bust they spent so much to acquire.
Purdy cost the Niners $7.9m over the entirety of his rookie contract. It undoubtedly enabled them to add and retain a number of blue-chip players. Their loaded roster took them to a Super Bowl and a NFC Championship in Purdy’s first two seasons in the league.
It was one of the most inspired draft-and-develop moves in recent NFL history.
And now, Purdy could cost them their future.
He’s reportedly agreed a contract worth $53m-a-year with $181m guaranteed. He’s on a deal worth only $2m-a-year less than Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. We’ll need to see the full details and the 49ers might have team-friendly outs attached. However, Purdy has gone from one of the best bargains in football to potentially one of the biggest white elephants.
The problem is that he’s a good not great player. He’s very effective within Shanahan’s scheme, he’s more athletic and elusive than most initially realised and he’s a decent player. He had the 10th best PFF grade in 2024 (82.4) sandwiched between Geno Smith and Kyler Murray in the rankings.
Purdy isn’t a difference maker though. He isn’t someone you’d fancy to win you a big game or a playoff matchup on his own with his arm. You can well imagine Burrow doing that, or Allen. Not Purdy. Not based on what we’ve seen.
He’s a player who you’d imagine is going to need a great supporting cast. Yet the 49ers have made it harder to build a great supporting cast by committing so much to their non-elite quarterback.
This isn’t a new phenomena. The other highest paid quarterbacks include Dak Prescott ($60m), Jordan Love ($55m), Trevor Lawrence ($55m), Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1m) and Jared Goff ($53m). None of these players have enjoyed any playoff success. They’re not necessarily players you’d expect to be in the MVP mix or even winning quarterbacks. Some have been pretty average.
The league is so dependant on the quarterback position though that teams panic. They’re unwilling to enter the world of the unknown. If they have a player with some potential, reputation or has shown at least a moderate amount of talent, they’d rather pay them a massive salary than risk moving on.
The Seahawks in fairness took a different path. They could’ve paid Geno Smith a major new deal but chose the unknown. I think they deserve credit for that. I don’t think their situation with Sam Darnold, on less money than the players named above, is less attractive.
However, if Jalen Milroe turns into Seattle’s starter over the next 2-3 years, I hope they’ll show restraint if he doesn’t emerge into an elite starter. Paying brilliant money for OK play is a sure-fire way to get absolutely nowhere. You’re better off, in my opinion, taking cheaper shots at quarterback and continuing to search for greatness.
The 49ers made their bed. They do have a joker in the pack with Shanahan — he’s capable of coaxing a lot out of limited quarterbacks. I still think it’ll be interesting to see how they handle paying Purdy a fortune though. Trent Williams is coming to the end. Christian McCaffrey isn’t far away. George Kittle is 32 in October. Their once fearsome D-line is now Nick Bosa and a collection of rookies.
They’re putting a lot of pressure on their ability to draft well. They’ve had some high moments during Shanahan and Lynch’s tenure but they’ve also blown a lot of stock. For example, in 2022 their top three picks were Drake Jackson, Tyrion Davis-Price and Danny Gray. None of them remain on the San Francisco roster. In 2021 their top three picks were Trey Lance, Aaron Banks and Trey Sermon. Again, none remain on the roster. In 2020 they had two first round picks and then nothing until round five. Javon Kinlaw is long gone and Brandon Aiyuk might be a huge financial black-hole for them coming off a major injury.
The 49ers have been the cream of the NFC West for several years. Last season it felt like they were on the decline. This contract for Purdy might accelerate that fall. It might be time for someone else to lead the division.
