Month: October 2024 (Page 1 of 4)

Max Brosmer is underrated

One thing you notice scouting college quarterbacks is the total lack of snaps taken under center. They are operating 100% from the shotgun. It’s not necessarily a huge issue. It was reported last year that 83% of all NFL offensive snaps are from the shotgun, with Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts operating almost entirely from the gun. Recently, we’ve seen the Seahawks use a high percentage of snaps from the shotgun.

However, you do need to still operate under center. One of the bigger problems with college scouting is you don’t even know even know if these quarterbacks can take a snap under center. It’s very different having to turn your back to the defense, set and throw. This isn’t easy. You can’t project how good they are at this at a scripted pro-day. It’s why the Senior Bowl can be so useful and why seeing clear evidence on tape is vital.

Garrett Nussmeier, Cam Ward, Quinn Ewers, Shedeur Sanders, Kurtis Rourke. It’s all shotgun. Then you watch Max Brosmer and you finally see effective under-center snaps.

That’s not the only positive though. We talked about Brosmer over the summer as a player with real potential. He impressed at New Hampshire and transferring to the BIG-10 was a good opportunity to take his game to the next level. I think a few people overreacted to a so-so start where he didn’t immediately set the conference on fire. He has gradually improved, which is what you want to see. This culminated in a superb performance against Maryland on Saturday.

Look at this redzone touchdown. He’s under center. You can clearly see he’s eyeing up the receiver he eventually throws to. I don’t know what his instruction is here but you could arguably make a case he’s open on the slant very early in the route and Brosmer makes life harder by hesitating. However, how can you be critical when you see what happens next? He lets the receiver run through to the back of the end zone and then, off balance and under pressure, he delivers a perfectly accurate, lofted pass into the only area he can throw it to score a touchdown:

It’s a fantastic little flick of the wrist and the ball placement is spot on. He might’ve made the throw harder by waiting on the route but he still executes that throw brilliantly.

The next clip shows Brosmer under center again. It’s a play-action pass thrown 35-yards downfield on a dime.

Look at the anticipation on this throw. The graphic below highlights the direction of the pass. The receiver is off-screen in the TV copy tape so I’ve circled where he is. When this ball is released, he is behind the covering defender. Brosmer guides him to the perfect opening and he runs underneath the pass. This is a NFL throw:

Not only that, the velocity and touch is spot on.

The next clip shows off excellent poise in the red zone. This time he’s in the shotgun. Watch how he initially reads to the right, comes back to the receiver running across the middle and he adjusts his arm angle to deliver a perfect pass, keeping the ball away from harm’s way. It might seem simple as the receiver is open — but the adjustment with the angle of the throw never gives the defender a chance to recover:

Here’s another example of the anticipation he showed in this game. A lot of quarterbacks can execute a back-shoulder throw. Look at the clip and keep an eye on when Brosmer releases the football. The receiver is reaching the line to gain and is still sprinting through his route. He then turns at the 20-yard-line to track the ball, seeing it’s already on its way, and adjusts to make the catch. This is excellent timing:

The final clip highlights the kind of throw I like to see when I’m watching a quarterback. It’s a throw over the middle for approximately 30 air-yards, exploiting a physical mismatch, thrown in an area where only the receiver — in this case a tight end — can make the catch. Look at the ball placement and velocity here. You can’t defend this:

It should be mentioned that Minnesota got on top of Maryland early and there was very little pressure on Brosmer either in terms of game-situation or pass rush. He didn’t have to scramble once in the game — the first time that has happened this season. He wasn’t sacked and was only pressured seven times — the third fewest pressures he’s faced this season (Nevada & USC created fewer pressure vs Minnesota).

I don’t think Brosmer has fantastic physical upside. He’s about 6-2 and 225lbs. He doesn’t have a difference making arm, although it doesn’t look weak. He isn’t an escape artist and is more of a ‘decent’ athlete than an X-factor player on the move. I’m not convinced he’s a special player and will probably require a suitable scheme to make the most of his talents.

However, there is evidence on tape of NFL throws. He seems to be improving every week. His ceiling might be Kirk Cousins — and Cousins has had a very productive NFL career.

I think Brosmer deserves more attention from the scouting community.

Garrett Nussmeier has a weird day

The first half against Texas A&M was a continuation of Nussmeier at his best. He was delivering challenging NFL throws to all areas of the field. People like Jim Nagy and Todd McShay were tweeting about how impressive he looked. I joined in. Social media was buzzing with talk of Nussmeier potentially being QB1 in the 2025 draft.

He carries a confident, dude-like demeanour in the huddle. He’s good on third downs. He made big throws under pressure. He used creative arm angles to get the ball out. His anticipation was mostly spot-on. It was a terrific first two quarters.

Look at this throw (note the rare snap under center):

Garrett Nussmeier gives you NFL throws every week pic.twitter.com/Mc49eBiNFA

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) October 27, 2024

That’s a perfectly executed play-action pass in the red zone.

Here’s another example of a NFL-level throw that should’ve been caught:

Dropped but this was PRETTY from LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier pic.twitter.com/GgveRvRyiv

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) October 27, 2024

Upside isn’t always about being able to run around or throw the furthest downfield, sometimes it’s about having the raw natural gifts to deliver high quality throws consistently. Everything was going extremely well for Nussmeier.

Then the second half happened.

LSU completely collapsed and he started to make the kind of occasional errors we’ve seen in prior games (eg South Carolina).

It’s worth saying that overall LSU chucked this away. They had missed field goals in the first half and could easily have been home and hosed by half-time. They allowed Texas A&M to stick around. When their opponents swapped quarterbacks and went with a runner instead, they had no idea what to do. The game-plan for Connor Weigman that worked so effectively was now redundant with Marcel Reed.

Suddenly the pressure was ramped up to 11 for Nussmeier to keep scoring and keep his team in the game. He struggled to do this and made unforced errors, with a touch of misfortune on two of the three picks he threw, I thought. However — this is where I think the inexperience shows. He might have been in college football for years but this is his first season as a starter. Frankly, it’s impressive how well he’s performed given the circumstances. He has delivered more NFL-level throws than probably the rest of the 2025 quarterback prospects combined. Yet he is still susceptible to ‘oh no what have you done’ errors.

He’s thrown 15 ‘big time throws’ compared to 10 ‘turnover worthy plays’ this year and the tape checks out with that. What is more problematic, however, is when you look at his numbers under pressure. He’s only thrown two BTT’s and six TWP’s. Compare that to Shedeur Sanders (6/3 ratio), Kurtis Rourke (5/2) or Cam Ward (8/4).

This might be why he ultimately returns to LSU next year. He’d benefit from another year of starting and his team would have a shot to be a playoff threat. I’ve always thought he wouldn’t declare unless LSU had a great playoff run and that feels less likely after their second defeat of the season.

Nussmeier has a ton of NFL potential and is a very intriguing player for the next level. There’s no substitute for playing experience though and working out the issues in your game. He does need to cut out the mistakes and I’d imagine he’ll try to do that in 2025.

A final point on this game — can commentators please stop assuming things? Chris Fowler, who is excellent mostly, said at the end of the game that it was unusual to see Nussmeier face pressure because he’s been protected well all season by ‘two NFL tackles’. Will Campbell and Emery Jones have been average or poor all year. They might not have given up a bunch of sacks but Nussmeier faced a whopping 17 pressures against Texas A&M. That wasn’t even his most pressured outing — he was pressured 21 times against Ole Miss. In comparison, Max Brosmer has only been pressured 13 times all season.

It was the same on Sunday when Kevin Burkhardt said it was a surprise to see the Seahawks lose three games in a row at home — yet their record in front of their own fans since 2019 is a mediocre 19-19. Lot’s of assumptions.

Some thoughts from Texas’ win against Vanderbilt

Quinn Ewers had a mixed day again. He had a tipped pass interception to start the game which was no fault of his. To his credit, he came roaring back with 17 straight completions — including the throw below for a touchdown:

🎯🎯🎯@QuinnEwers @DeandreMooreJr pic.twitter.com/dDQPuGZ7Ai

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 26, 2024

He would’ve had 18 straight completions but Ryan Wingo the freshman clearly can’t track a football in the air at the moment.

In the first half I thought Ewers generally looked confident and in control. However, things got a bit ragged again later on. He didn’t handle the blitz well, failing to identify unblocked defenders and taking sacks. He appeared hesitant. He had a second interception on another tipped pass due to unblocked pressure jumping into his grill.

He did convert a great 3rd and 20 by buying time in the pocket, stepping up, then delivering a side-arm release to get the ball to the intended target for a key conversion in a one-score game.

I still don’t think he’s close to his best. He’s either still injured, he’s taken a huge confidence hit or both. The player we saw earlier in the season played with a swagger that is missing at the moment. His deep ball is also fluttering more than usual — which hints at some longer lasting health problems from the abdomen injury.

Ewers still possesses a lot of natural talent and potential. The angle on his draft stock will be — at what point do you take a chance on his upside, compared to having concern about his ability to stay healthy, consistent and avoid becoming erratic and hesitant?

On the offensive line, I thought Kelvin Banks Jr the left tackle (who will likely move to left guard) had another iffy day. Jake Majors the center looked great on the pull running into space, landing his block downfield. I thought he looked tremendous again.

Right tackle Cameron Williams had an absolute mare for the second week in a row. He’s given up two sacks and seven pressures in two games and it’s felt like more. His technique is all over the place. He might have the frame and the athletic upside but he can’t block properly at the moment. Williams shouldn’t declare. He needs games to work on his technique. He’d be a major liability in the NFL based on the way he’s playing at the moment.

Quick notes

— Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell just looks the part. He might be high-cut but he’s a unit who just looks destined to be a dude in the NFL. He’s a very consistent player and he’s only missed five tackles all season — despite playing on a struggling Alabama defense. His missed tackle percentage (6.8%) is 17th best among college football linebackers. I suspect he’ll be a second round pick.

— Another week, another injury. Drew Allar left Penn State’s win against Wisconsin with a knee problem. It’s unclear how serious it is and he’s being described only as a ‘game-time decision’ at this point — which could mean anything. Teams are not obliged to reveal the status of his injury and give their opponents an advantage. They are saying it’s probably not a long-term issue.

— Add another quality running back to the incredible depth for 2025. Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter looks ready made for the pro’s. He lacks truly dynamic change of direction skills and he’s not a ‘puts his foot in the ground and explodes off the cut’ type. However, he’s physical to run through contact like a lot of the players eligible for the draft (556 yards after contact this season, 11th most in CFB) and when he sees an opening he’s quick to shoot through gaps and make big gains. The NFL is going to see a major influx of running back talent in 2025.

If you appreciate what we do — and I don’t think there’s another site combining Seahawks and draft coverage like we do — you can support the blog by contributing via Patreon (click here).

On top of my weekly stint with Puck Sports (where we had a good 40 minutes on how to fix the offensive line) I was also invited on to the Hawkzone Rundown podcast for an extended 90 minute conversation. Please check out both videos below — it’ll help out both channels and if you have a second, give them a like too.

My latest scouting notes piece will be published tomorrow.

Since the early summer I’ve been studying draft eligible offensive linemen, predictably anticipating it’d be a major need for the Seahawks. My first prospect article covered Alabama left guard Tyler Booker.

Clearly the roster has multiple issues. They don’t have enough of a physical edge. They don’t have a clear long-term plan at quarterback. The defense still needs more. Despite all of the picks used since the Russell Wilson trade in 2022, they haven’t crafted a team. As Jeff Simmons brilliantly put it during our stream on Monday — they’ve done a reasonable job identifying players with talent since 2022. There’s a difference between that, however, and actually building a team to support your publicly stated preferred identity and vision.

They say they want to be tough, physical and run-orientated — yet their personnel moves over the last few years have failed to make that a reality. Instead, they look quite finesse, remain overly reliant on the quarterback and can neither run the ball consistently or defend the run at all.

Change will only happen if they take the actions to make it happen. It’s time for a more aggressive, perhaps even riskier approach (at least financially) to address the offensive line. This team will not possess the identity it says it wants unless it goes out and fixes the O-line. If you want to be a team that wins in the trenches, that has to be the priority until you’ve sorted things out. The only deviation away from that in terms of resource spend should come if you see an opportunity to acquire a possible franchise quarterback for the long term or a game-wrecking pass rusher.

So how do they do this?

It isn’t a deep O-line class in 2025. I’m going to discuss some names in this piece but remember — there are plenty of other teams also in the offensive line market.

There’s a further dilemma in relying on the draft to try and solve this problem. Look at the Christian Haynes pick. Most people approved of it, myself included, and it felt like it was good value. However, he can’t beat out struggling Anthony Bradford and the offensive coordinator recently admitted he simply isn’t strong enough to start.

Using the draft to construct a new line will likely come with teething problems. Rookies you pencil in as immediate starters might end up needing a redshirt year. It’s not clear at the moment whether Haynes is even capable of being a NFL player, despite being taken in round three.

One of Seattle’s biggest problems is a lack of chemistry too. They change centers every season. The guard positions have been a continuous shifting cycle of players. Due to Abe Lucas’ injury, they’ve had no consistency at right tackle. The only consistent presence has been Charles Cross.

Let’s say you draft two offensive linemen next April. You might need to commit to them starting, come hell or high water, in order to establish some consistency. It could be a disaster in 2025, even worse than we’re currently seeing. But until the Seahawks actually find some consistency up front, they’ll never get on track.

This is why I would try to combine a free agency splurge with drafting. The best thing to do is to try and manufacture a situation where you can mimic what the Eagles have done. They had a bunch of established starters, then drafted players to develop over time. This has created a transition from the old guard to the new. They also took players we felt very good about coming into the league. Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens were two blog favourites who perfectly fit the bill for what the Seahawks currently are missing — brutal, physical blockers with an edge.

What can the Seahawks do to try and create something like this?

Work out a way to create cap space in order to invest heavily in veteran offensive linemen. Then draft younger players to develop behind them. You build chemistry with proven veterans instead of young unknowns, then set the table for the future.

It’s a lot of resource and might leave you lacking in other areas. So what? It’s about time the O-line was loaded.

Firstly, free agency.

Ryan Kelly the Colts center is out of contract at the end of the season. Indianapolis drafted another blog favourite Tanor Bortolini this year as his heir apparent. It seems reasonably likely he will reach the market.

I am not against re-signing Connor Williams if he finishes the season strongly. Retaining a center would finally create some consistency. However, I’ve always admired Kelly’s gruffness. I like the way he held Anthony Richardson accountable this week. I want the Seahawks to build their future identity through the trenches and running game and I want a player like Kelly, with his mentality, to be at the forefront of it.

I would look to sign a right guard. Pittsburgh’s James Daniels is out for the season through injury but has consistently graded well. He could be an option. I’d consider Brandon Scherff if the Jaguars void his contract. I’d also look at Austin Corbett and Kevin Zeitler. I want a proven, veteran presence at right guard — ending the musical chairs rotation between Anthony Bradford and Christian Haynes. There are several options here that could be available to add a plug-in-and-play veteran.

This would also give Haynes an opportunity to develop in the background or simply be a backup.

Left guard is a problem area for free agency because the options are dreadful. You might need to draft an immediate starter here (more on that in a moment) but I wouldn’t just give up. I’d make a few calls and check on the trade market. If there was a chance to be pro-active, I would seriously consider it.

My first call would be to the Colts about Quenton Nelson. There’s no harm in asking the question. I’d be willing to pay quite a price to get an elite guard still in his 20’s. I highly doubt the Colts would trade him but I’d make them say ‘no’.

The Chiefs are really pushed for cap space and have two vital young players on expiring contracts. They will be desperate to keep right guard Trey Smith and linebacker Nick Bolton. They can create $16m in cap space by trading Joe Thuney in the off-season. Thuney has one year left on his contract and turns 32 next month. Kansas City has already faced ‘pick your poison’ decisions with their roster — trading Tyreek Hill trade and deciding not to keep Orlando Brown Jr. This will be another big call. I don’t think it’s that unlikely they’d at least listen to offers for Thuney — although a front office like Kansas City’s will probably find a way to keep him and still pay Smith and Bolton. Again though, I’d make the call.

If you could acquire Nelson or Thuney, I’d be willing to make it worth their while in terms of a new contract. If you’re going to pay a fortune for the likes of Jamal Adams, Dre’Mont Jones and others, there’s no excuse not to pay big money for a proven guard.

Do you run the risk of adding ageing players who have maybe seen their best football come and go? Yes. Will this be expensive? Absolutely. However, I sense the entire Seahawks fan base is ready to give this approach a go. They want to see the front office be aggressive with the offensive line for once.

Going all-in to land proven, grizzled veterans would be a statement of intent. Imagine if next season they had a line with Cross at left tackle, Thuney at left guard, Kelly at center, one of Daniels or Zeitler at right guard and then either a healthy Abe Lucas or George Fant at right tackle. For the first time in years, this wouldn’t feel like a problematic unit.

I appreciate such a transformation probably feels unrealistic. They’ve got to go for it though. They’ve got to try and make it happen. They’ve got to be as aggressive here as they were in the Adams trade. They made that happen. Make improving the O-line happen.

Solve this problem in free agency and you can be open minded in the draft. With the way the season is heading after four defeats in five games, they might be in a position to land Jalon Walker or Abdul Carter — both perfect fits for the Mike Macdonald defense.

If they aren’t picking high enough for either, I’d continue investing in the line via the draft. Copy the Eagles. Draft younger guys to develop behind your older veterans. I have absolutely no problem drafting offensive linemen in the first two rounds to sit, develop, learn and prepare to replace the older players you drafted. Philly did this with Dickerson and Jurgens and it paid off.

If it isn’t possible to acquire a stud left guard like Nelson or Thuney (which I accept is likely a long-shot), Alabama’s Booker is the prospect I’d be willing to throw in at the deep end and have confidence he’d succeed as a rookie starter. I’d possibly also include Kelvin Banks Jr in that discussion because I think he will kick inside to guard.

Booker is an ideal combination of brilliant size, athleticism, power at the point of attack, maturity and leadership. He is ‘the dude’ in the Alabama locker room. If it simply isn’t possible to acquire a veteran via trade, I wouldn’t have a problem with the Seahawks taking Booker in the first round and installing him as a day one starter. I think he can handle it and has the potential to develop into a very useful NFL player within a couple of years.

This season he hasn’t given up a sack to go with only two hits conceded, five hurries and seven pressures. It’s his physical tone setting that I think is so impressive. He drives defenders off the screen to finish blocks. He loves a pancake. I think he had a few more last season but it’s still in his locker. He just absorbs opponents with his incredible frame yet has five-star athleticism so he’s able to get on the move and pull, latch on to targets at the second level and do anything you need your left guard to do.

The Seahawks will have good intel on Booker given he’s being coached by Kalen DeBoer. I’m not planning to do a mock draft any time soon but unless the Seahawks lose enough games to end up picking in the top-10, I’ll almost certainly be pairing them with Booker with their first pick.

Josh Conerly Jr at Oregon is an interesting option albeit with a different outlook. He is playing left tackle in college but lacks the size to stay there in the NFL. He has a guard frame. I think there’s a reasonable chance he will need time in the pro’s to transition, get in a pro-weight programme and might need a year. That said, I love watching him play. He’s angry, aggressive and gets after opponents. He’s given up one sack this season, one hit, three hurries and just five total pressures.

Conerly Jr has the kind of intense playing style the Seahawks lack. He reminds me of a smaller version of Matthew Bergeron. Even during interviews he looks angry, with a classic offensive lineman grimace on his face while he answers questions. He’s actually interesting to listen to when he gets into an answer — but you can just tell he’s more comfortable hitting someone in the face on the field. That’s what I want. I think he’s a top-40 pick but might need a red-shirt season.

Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson is a tremendous athlete and he looks the part. I think his recent performances have been good after a challenging 2023 season. I think he’s playing better than Buckeye fans online are giving him credit for. He’s given up zero sacks, one hit, three hurries and four pressures this season. He’s explosive, shows a level of physicality and you feel like he’s only scratching the surface of his potential. He’s an upside pick rather than a sure thing — but I do think he has talent to become one of the better guards in the league and will also likely be a top-40 pick.

After watching the Bills debacle on Sunday it’s not implausible that the Seahawks end up in a position to select the likely first offensive lineman off the board, Kelvin Banks Jr. As mentioned, I think he’s a guard based on his frame. I think he could potentially be a player similar to Alijah Vera-Tucker. His last two performances against Vanderbilt and Georgia were underwhelming but for the season he’s only given up one sack, one hit, one hurry and three pressures. He has the personality that the Seahawks need up front. Banks Jr is very engaging, mature and has a ‘dude’ factor to him. He’s a very appealing talent. I’m convinced that as a guard he can have a long productive career. Measurements during the draft process will determine whether teams prefer to keep him at tackle or move him inside.

At center, I think there are a handful of intriguing players. Iowa’s Logan Jones might be an even better athlete and overall talent than Tyler Linderbaum. He’s been underrated by the draft community all year, mainly I suspect because his tape prior to this season was messy. He’s worked out some technical flaws and has taken a major jump this year — giving up only one sack, one hit, one hurry and three pressures. I’ve been so impressed with his tape I think he’s a top-50 pick and could easily develop into one of the better centers in the NFL within three years.

I think there’s something to be said for drafting Iowa linemen and tight ends. I realise Noah Fant isn’t pulling up any trees but he’s not a typical Hawkeye tight end. I would take a serious look at Jones the center, Luke Lachey the tight end and Gennings Dunker who can potentially play guard or tackle.

Jake Majors is having an excellent season for Texas and I’ve been really impressed with him, even during games (eg Georgia) where the line struggled. He’s given up zero sacks, two hits, six hurries and eight pressures this year. He’s an excellent athlete, he’s tough, physical, technically sound and again looks like a player destined for a long NFL career. I’ve given him a strong day-two grade.

Illinois’ Josh Kreutz isn’t likely to be a high pick — think more rounds 3/4 if he declares — but I just love the intensity with which he plays. Forget pulling or reaching up to the second level — he’s a front-on, head-up brute who bullies defensive linemen 1v1. He plays like he belongs in the AFC North. He’s given up one sack, zero hits, six hurries and seven pressures this season. His upside isn’t as high but I like the way he plays.

Jared Wilson at Georgia is a tremendous athlete and was a bit of a surprise package when I watched him. He combines traits with power and I thought he was mostly technically sound. There’s a lot of upside here and I’ve given him a third round grade. He’s quite softly spoken and not necessarily the kind of edgy tone-setter I think the Seahawks need — but his tape was solid. He’s given up zero sacks, zero hits, three hurries and three pressures this season.

There are three other players worth mentioning. I much prefer Georgia’s Dylan Fairchild over his more highly touted team mate Tate Ratledge. Fairchild was a strong wrestler and it shows on tape. He’s a brawler when matched-up and has a great mix of size, strength and attitude. I think he could easily end up being a long-term NFL starter with the kind of grizzled attitude the Seahawks should target. I have him graded in round three but could see a second round placing. He’s given up zero sacks, one hit, four hurries and five pressures this season.

Wisconsin’s Jack Nelson has been on our radar for three seasons. He’s playing tackle but I think he’ll make an excellent guard. He’s got good size, plus athleticism, he has a classic Wisconsin lineman attitude and while I’m not convinced he has an amazing upside — I think he has a chance to be a very solid, dependable interior blocker. He’s playing left tackle in college and this year he’s given up one sack, zero hits, six hurries and seven pressures. I think he’s a day two pick.

Then there’s Jonah Savaiinaea from Arizona. I think he shows real aggression in his play and will be at home in the interior of a NFL line. He’s playing tackle in college and I think he struggles a bit there — he’s given up 13 pressures and 11 hurries this season. Let him move inside and block 1v1 from a square position and he can bully opponents. I think he will be a day two pick.

As you can see, there are options — both in the draft and the veteran market. The Seahawks need to really commit to fixing this problem with an aggressive plan. They can’t go into next year waiting to see what’s left at guard like they did with Laken Tomlinson. They can’t let it be known they dabbled with trading up for Cooper Beebe, only to stand pat and end up drafting a player who can’t get on the field. They can’t have a situation at center where the starter changes every year and they’re looking around for players to sign in August. And while all this is going on, they tell everyone they want to run the ball and bully people up front.

They have to go for this. They need to find a way to fix this problem. Nobody will criticise them if they’re aggressive and it doesn’t work. The criticism comes when they do what they did this year, everyone anticipates problems, and the line plays like crap in the first eight games.

If you want to be a tough, physical, bullying team that wins in the trenches — that’s where you need to spend your resources. That’s where you need to craft your identity. It really is as simple as that.

1. Be honest

It’s time to accept the reality. This team is not on a path to glory. They’re not being honest with themselves again.

A year ago they beat the Cleveland Browns and the 49ers were slumping. They were top of the NFC West and made a very aggressive trade for Leonard Williams — using a second round pick to rent the remainder of his contract from the Giants. A few days later they were blown away 37-3 by the Baltimore Ravens, an actual contender, and within a few weeks the Niners had re-established control of the division because they were the clear best team in the NFC West.

This season, they spent a fourth round pick on Ernest Jones IV weeks after he was traded to Tennessee by LA for a ham sandwich. They again used a pick to rent him for the remaining 10 games on his contract. I heard similar arguments last week about the NFC West ‘being there for the taking’ after the win in Atlanta. The Seahawks were in first place with the 49ers injured and struggling.

It’s incredible that history has repeated. A few days later they’ve been humiliated by the Bills at home 31-10. The Falcons win is placed in the context of a run of four defeats in five miserable games. Meanwhile, the Niners handled the Cowboys and suddenly if the Seahawks lose next week to a resurgent Rams, they’ll be in last place in the NFC West.

For years the Seahawks have deluded themselves into thinking they’re constantly in contention. It’s time for honesty. They have enough good players to have the occasional good win like we saw in Atlanta. I suspect they’ll win seven or eight games and be around the same mark they’ve been for the last two years.

They are not one more off-season, one more draft, one more in-season trade away from being a contender. The sooner this is accepted and the work begins to create a team that can be, the better. Otherwise they’ll just carry on as they are — never being bad enough to force change and never being good enough to get you dreaming about a post-season run.

Performances like we saw on Sunday against a serious team like the Bills, the Ravens a year ago, or any time you face the 49ers, will continue until this team embraces that change is required to remake aspects of the roster.

They say they want to be tough and physical. You have to build a team to be that and it starts up front.

2. Embrace they’ve taken a disastrous approach to the offensive line

Most of the NFL is struggling to put together a functioning, competent O-line. College football is not creating a lot of solutions and average pro linemen are getting paid elite salaries in free agency.

If creating an offensive line is a system, it is broken.

That still doesn’t excuse the terrible, ham-fisted job the Seahawks have done.

They knew going into the last off-season they’d have holes to fill. So what did they do? They basically waited for whatever was left in the bargain bin to sign a left guard. Laken Tomlinson was added because he was the best of what was left. They drafted a right guard who, by Ryan Grubb’s own admission, isn’t strong enough to start in the league. It means Christian Haynes and Anthony Bradford play a weekly game of musical chairs at the position, where nobody stands out and gets any closer to being given the full-time gig.

At center they opted to go with late round pick Olu Oluwatimi and Nick Harris, signed as a free agent. When it became clear this wasn’t going to cut it, they signed Connor Williams — fresh off a very serious knee injury — on August 6th. Williams was a big name but there was an air of desperation about the move.

The line they’ve put on the field has been a shambles and it isn’t surprising. None of the teams with competent offensive lines build them this way.

For far too long now the Seahawks have drafted players and failed to develop them into effective starters. They haven’t signed a home-grown O-liner to a second contract since Justin Britt seven years ago.

They change center every year. It’s incredible. They are swapping players in and out annually. That might happen again next season, given Williams is only on a one-year deal and isn’t showing ‘must keep’ form at the moment.

If you spoke to John Schneider about this he may be ask, ‘what would you have done differently?’. My response would be this. For a team that traded away so much for a box safety and paid him a fortune, for a team that has happily given out significant contracts to under-performing players in recent years, and a team that has recently spent two second round picks on running backs — why weren’t they prepared to go above and beyond on offensive linemen? Either in the market when good players have become available — Joe Thuney for example — or via trade.

Why haven’t they been able to identify the players in the draft that have become established starters, re-signed to new deals? Nobody expects every pick to hit. But to not have any hits over many, many years? They had the opportunity to draft some of the better current linemen in the league and passed — only to draft for other positions, such as receiver, and watch those players amount to nothing.

From the first minute Jim Harbaugh arrived in LA to take over the Chargers he made it very clear they were going to be an O-line team. He was going to recreate Stanford, the 49ers and Michigan. Their first pick was a right tackle, when better players at the skill positions were available, and he committed to the identity of his team. They moved on from expensive skill players like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

I bet anything that this time next year, the Chargers will look like a classic Harbaugh outfit and will be a very challenging, physical opponent.

The Seahawks need to learn from that. They appointed a protégé of the Harbaugh brothers to be their Head Coach. They need to re-shape their roster to be a Harbaugh-style team. They need to make a firm commitment to the O-line — being aggressive in any way necessary to create an identity through the trenches.

If that means sacrificing other players to make it a reality, so be it.

Drastic measures are needed. It’s time to stop paying lip service to the offensive line while shouting about the identity you want as a team. Mission #1 in the upcoming off-season has to be to fix the O-line and put down some long term plans and investments. No more cheap guards, a conveyor belt at center and a carousel at right guard.

Enough. This team has been bullied in the trenches for far too long.

3. Add more leadership

I had no problem with Jarran Reed getting into it with Derrick Hall on Sunday. Reed is one of the few serious leaders on the roster.

Don’t just take my word for it. K.J. Wright, who at least had some connections to the locker room last year gave an infamous interview on 710 Seattle Sports a year ago questioning how many leaders the Seahawks actually had.

Wright said you need four legit leaders. When pressed as to who that could be in Seattle at the time, he could barely think of any — name-checking only Reed. He scoffed at the idea people like Geno Smith could be placed in that category.

Nothing has changed. They still lack presence and leadership. You can see it on the field and on the sidelines. When things start to unravel, that’s it. Nobody stands up to be counted.

Here’s more from Wright:

“In my locker room, players, we handled it. We handled each other. If you’re doing this, you’re pushing (against) the grain, we handled each other. When I look at this team right now, no brother is holding the other brother accountable.”

It is the same with the current group.

If anything, the Seahawks need more Jarran Reed’s. They need more people willing to get into it with a team mate and say get your head in the game.

They also need to establish exactly what leadership is.

I talked about it in this short video:

The Seahawks have drafted a lot of high character players since 2022. They’ve doubled down on being risk averse with character. They’ve added a lot of players with high football character and work ethic.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that but what they haven’t been able to find is an edge. Sometimes you need edgy players. People who aren’t what you’d call traditional leaders but for whatever reason, everyone gravitates to them.

The Seahawks have a dearth of individuals who fit that bill right now and it shows. They are not difficult to play against, nobody is standing up to be counted when the going gets tough, there does look like a lack of accountability within the group and there’s too much sulking and pouting and not enough action.

How do you fix this? For me there are only two ways. Find non-typical leaders like Kam Chancellor and Marshawn Lynch who create your soul through physicality. Or your personality and leadership needs to be driven by the type of team you are — namely being tough, physical and dominant up front with strong leadership from an alpha at quarterback.

4. Add more experience to the coaching staff

In 2017 the Rams appointed the youngest coach in the NFL. Sean McVay hadn’t even been an offensive coordinator before. One reason the 30-year-old McVay convinced the Rams to take a chance on him is because he famously threw his phone down on the desk during his interview, told them Wade Phillips was expecting a call and he’d agreed to be his defensive coordinator.

Not only had McVay secured the architect of Denver’s Super Bowl winning defense from the 2015 season, he’d also secured someone with legit NFL Head Coaching experience to be his right hand man.

Now let’s look at the appointment of Mike Macdonald. He was also made the youngest coach in the NFL this year. However, he didn’t appoint a vastly experienced coordinator to his staff. Instead, he brought in Ryan Grubb who had never even coached in the NFL before to run his offense. Then he added Aden Durde to be defensive coordinator — someone who’d only previously been a position coach.

The addition of Leslie Frazier was rightly applauded to add some experience and support for Macdonald. Yet Frazier, as far as we know, is not running either side of the ball for Macdonald. He’s more of a sounding board.

With hindsight, the Seahawks probably needed more experience around their young Head Coach. Preferably an offensive play-caller who’d been there, done it and got the T-shirt. Someone who knew the job and could be relied upon, like Phillips in LA, to look after his brief.

There was some chatter that Arthur Smith was set to join Macdonald if he got a Head Coaching gig but the timing of Baltimore’s run to the AFC Championship meant he had to accept a job in Pittsburgh before Macdonald became Seahawks Head Coach. Looking back, Smith might’ve been an ideal candidate given his prior experience coaching in Atlanta.

Instead they went with a very different alternative. They went with someone with zero NFL experience.

This isn’t all on Grubb and he doesn’t need to be made a scapegoat when Macdonald, Durde, Frazier and everyone else are not exactly doing a stellar job. However, it’s fair to wonder whether the Seahawks got this one wrong in the off-season and whether they should rectify the problem for next year by adding more proven NFL experience to the staff.

I must admit I have some concern about Macdonald too. He only had two years’ experience as a defensive coordinator in the NFL. It’s clear, with hindsight, that he didn’t have great connections in the league to build a staff. Virtually everyone who came in hadn’t worked together before. It’s very difficult to throw a whole bunch of coaches together as strangers and expect everything to click.

I didn’t want Dan Quinn to replace Pete Carroll and wouldn’t go back in time and change that now if given a chance. However, it’s clear that he had his staff lined up and ready to go based on years of networking and NFL experience. There was a built in chemistry that Macdonald doesn’t have at the moment.

The chances are that behind the scenes, the coaches might not be as connected as you’d hoped because they’ve been thrust together. And they’re all working for a boss who, if we’re being honest, is not experienced himself.

There’s an even bigger concern I have based on the performance of Seattle’s defense so far. The Ravens’ defense benefitted from weekly scoreboard pressure applied by the NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. In most games last year, Macdonald’s unit played with a lead.

I noted this in an article before Macdonald emerged as a leading candidate to replace Carroll. Within that piece we highlighted that Baltimore had just 88 total snaps in 2023 when trailing — an incredible benefit to Macdonald and the defense.

When Seattle’s offense grabs the lead, as we saw in Atlanta, the defense can thrive. Yet the Seahawks’ offense is streaky, inconsistent and prone to tripping over its own feet. When they can’t apply scoreboard pressure, the defense has looked totally useless.

We’re weeks into the season now and there are no solutions to fixing the run defense (they tried the trade route and it hasn’t made any difference). The pass rush is mostly unimpressive. Players like Devon Witherspoon are regressing badly.

I’m starting to wonder if, actually, it’s not just the offensive coordinator position that needs more experience. Maybe they need to go and get someone like Wink Martindale out of Michigan, who Macdonald sees as a mentor of sorts, to help run the defense?

5. Learn from contract mistakes

I had no problem with the Dre’Mont Jones signing. I celebrated the decision to be pro-active in free agency like everyone else. However, it was very clear after his first season in Seattle that it might’ve been a mistake.

The Seahawks ignored that, spoke about switching his position around to play more off the edge (a risk), then doubled down on his contract — re-working it to make it harder to move him. They did this before they’d even seen how he fit in the Macdonald scheme.

Why?

Why do they re-work these contracts so often? They did it to Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams too when they were clearly coming to the end of the road. It just creates financial pain.

Also, why did they re-sign Noah Fant? It’s pretty clear they have no intention of using a dynamic pass-catching tight end. They seem to prefer to use AJ Barner, a fourth round pick. Did they not think about how they intended to utilise this position before bringing him back?

I would trade Fant now for whatever you can get if possible. You’d save a little bit of money now and the dead money for 2025 will be the same if you trade him today or in March. Maybe someone will swap a token pick for him.

Either way, it feels like the Seahawks have made a lot of questionable contract decisions over the years and too often have doubled down on them. They need to be better here.

6. Do not extend Geno Smith’s contract

This needs to stop. Please.

Smith is contracted for 2025 on a cap hit worth $38.5m. There is absolutely zero pressure to extend his contract into 2026, when he’ll turn 36, or beyond.

There are basically two options for the Seahawks in the off-season. Either you carry on with Smith under his current deal and accept he will be the starter again next season, or you move on and make a decision to go younger and cheaper at the position.

I am open to either.

Smith is not the raging disaster zone that some fans will have you believe. Equally, he is not a ‘legit franchise quarterback’ who is destined to lead the Seahawks to the promise land. For me, he’s been an above average bridge who has enabled the Seahawks to be more competitive than they otherwise would’ve been transitioning from the Russell Wilson era.

He has some games where he looks excellent because he’s a physically impressive player. The games against New England and Atlanta in particular showed off Smith at his best. He was superb in both games.

Yet as we noted over the summer, Smith has been up-and-down in all three of the most significant seasons in his career. That is continuing this year.

The objective has to be to find a young, long term solution at the position. Not youth for the sake of it — you need someone with the quality to drive the team forward. Someone who can tilt the field, as Schneider would say, and compensate for issues elsewhere on the roster.

If the plan is to stick with Smith on a year-to-year basis while they wait to find that individual, that’s fine by me. Provided they are looking, which I believe they are.

Equally if they decide for the purpose of an overall roster re-shape the best thing to do is be younger and cheaper at quarterback to save money and invest in other areas, I wouldn’t be opposed to that either. I think major surgery is needed to the way the roster is constructed and resources used. I can handle a year of Sam Howell or a rookie, for example, if it means finally fixing the offensive line.

The idea of paying Smith around $50m a year, eating up a huge chunk of cap space, to be financially committed to him as he approaches 40, is so unbelievable I can’t believe it is broached as a serious subject. Look around the league. There are a bunch of teams currently paying way too much for their quarterbacks, achieving the square root of nothing. Why would you want to join them? Especially for a player who is already in his mid-30’s?

Finding a great young quarterback is so difficult I can understand why the Seahawks are being patient and not forcing things. Sticking by a veteran like Smith during the process is fine and I’ve no issue with the year-to-year approach they’ve taken with him.

This has to be a means to an end though. It has to remain a year-to-year venture. The Seahawks are not a tweak, a nudge, a nurdle away from Geno Smith, armed with a mega-contract, leading this team to a Super Bowl. Yesterday showed they’re miles away. Extending Smith to massive money would be the ultimate act of hubris — implying they think they’re closer than they are and that they can afford to invest so much in the quarterback position and just tweak other areas.

Sunday’s game against the Bills and the recent sixth-straight loss to the 49ers highlighted the vast chasm between the Seahawks and legit contention. They need to re-shape and restructure their roster, not invest more money in the status quo.

Smith is a bridge to the future — but the future must be sought.

Join Jeff and I at 2pm PT for a live stream debate on the state of the Seahawks:

That was appalling. It was as bad as the Giants game. It was as bad as the Steelers game last season. I’d say it was worse than both. It reminded me of the Rams game in 2017. A total embarrassment.

The Seahawks were a disorganised mess. They made so many routine, high-school level errors. A center snapping the ball too high or standing on the quarterback’s toes. Geno Smith getting a penalty for throwing a ball at a Bills defender like a petulant child. Two players fighting after one of them makes a dumb mistake for a penalty. Another mistake by Dee Williams on a punt.

Not for the first time this season, the Seahawks didn’t appear ready to play. This time there are no ‘short week’ excuses either.

Nothing sums it up better than the running game. They keep saying every week they want to be able to run, that’s their identity. Today they managed 32 yards. The Bills had 166. Everyone runs against this defense. The Seahawks, meanwhile, simply cannot establish the kind of team they say they want to be.

It’s time to start being honest. Not enough people are. They are capable of beating a similarly flaky team like Atlanta. Great. Roll out the parade. They’re also capable of being embarrassed like they were today and losing four games out of five.

Good teams will lose games — but they don’t lose like this. It was non-competitive, slop-fest, undisciplined, waste of time football.

So let’s just admit it. The way this team is built isn’t capable of being more than a team that occasionally will flatter to deceive by beating someone like the Falcons. They won’t win a Super Bowl. They won’t make a playoff run. Playing like this, you can forget the playoffs altogether. Bin off the hubris. Use this as a reality check.

Questions need to be asked about how John Schneider has built this roster. If they have any more games like the Giants, 49ers and Bills beatings, questions will need to be asked about whether he deserves the chance to put things right, plus the staff he’s put together — rookie season or not — will need to be challenged. This isn’t good enough. I, like many, had high hopes for this staff. Are they bogged down by the makeup of the roster? Are they too inexperienced? Are they just not good enough? It’s painful that these questions feel necessary — but a performance like that makes this kind of conversation unavoidable.

There’s no benefit of the doubt to give when they are this bad. And they are bad on every level. There isn’t a single aspect of this team playing mostly error-free, consistent football.

They are not tough. They are not difficult to play against. At home they are awful. They’re 19-19 at home in front of fans since 2019. It’s a massive problem that not enough people talk about. The famous ‘home-field advantage’ in Seattle is gone. It is consigned to the history books. Now home games are full of away fans buying tickets because people are clinging on to Seahawks season tickets in the expensive seats as a side hustle.

This is something the people at the top of the franchise needs to sort out. On the field, the GM and the coaches also have to produce a team that can actually be competitive, physical and live up to all the talk of what they want to be.

They rely too much on the offense. If the offense can score points and apply scoreboard pressure, the defense has half a shot. When the offense stumbles and bumbles, which is happening too often, it’s game over. The defense is so bad, there is no resistance.

We’re eight games into the season and the run defense is still appalling. Even after the two trades. They’ve thrown loads at the D-line and it can’t stop the run or rush the passer consistently.

This is a disorganised team lacking on-field leadership. I’m starting to wonder if they have enough of it on the sideline too. If you can’t get your schemes going and you’re consistently easy to play against, that isn’t good enough.

Are they too inexperienced? They have a Head Coach who previously had only been a defensive coordinator in the NFL for two seasons. Their offensive coordinator had never coached in the NFL before he took the job. The defensive coordinator was previously only ever a position coach. Their special teams coordinator mainly worked for his dad at Michigan. I’m not sure having Leslie Frazier on the staff is enough. Are there simply too many people who haven’t done this before?

Sean McVay won coach of the year in his first year as the Rams Head Coach. His first act was to appoint Wade Phillips as his defensive coordinator.

The Seahawks are scrambling for an identity. If you want to be a tough, physical team you can’t be waiting to shop in the bargain bin at left guard then adding a center late in the summer who’s only just recovering from a serious knee injury. Neither can you pay a big fat whopping contract to an epic disappointment like Dre’Mont Jones on the D-line.

The O-line stinks and has done for too long. I get it, the whole league is struggling here. You can still ask legitimate questions as to why the Seahawks were basically just waiting to see who’s left at guard (Laken Tomlinson? I guess he’ll do), change their center every season and are playing musical chairs every week at right guard. No other team does this and has success.

Geno Smith has been one of the few positives this season. He isn’t the solution for the future though. The people clamouring to invest major money in him like the Seahawks are on the right track here need to give it a rest. The last thing they should be doing in their current form is giving Smith, who turns 35 next year in the final season of his current deal, a massive salary. They’ll just end up like so many other teams who are paying mega bucks for a quarterback who isn’t at the elite end. Why on earth would you do this? They’re so far away from being a team that should be handing a big contract to anyone at the moment.

The Seahawks have hovered around .500 for the last two years and they’re 4-4 now. This is what they are. Losses like this make a .500 record feel better than the reality.

Making rental trades before the deadline isn’t fixing anything. You need serious change to the roster. You need to actually build the team you want to be — like the Lions have done. This game should act as a brutal exposure of just how far away this team is.

My biggest fear is they end the season with an Atlanta-type win and everyone goes into the off-season talking like the team is just an off-season away. I said it before and after the Atlanta game and got pelters from some. They might need a six-win season to actually act as a slap in the chops to realise this team isn’t built for success.

You’re either on the right track or you’re not. The Seahawks aren’t.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Last week we talked about the Seahawks having a game that could be a turning point for them in this young season. And boy did they deliver.

A 34-14 win over a hot Atlanta Falcons team in their building was impressive. The offense played a clean game with no turnovers, Ken Walker ran well despite being ill, the defense harassed Kirk Cousins and forced three turnovers despite giving rookies and Practice Squad players copious amounts of snaps.

They provided an answer about their season in that game. But it is only the beginning. To truly make the Atlanta win a turning point, they need to play well against Buffalo this week (and the Rams next week).

And so, we have another litmus test in the Buffalo Bills today. They are in a prime position to secure a playoff spot. They stand at 5-2 and are three games ahead of every team in their division.

How have the Seahawks fared against playoff teams?

In 2022, they were 2-5 against teams that ended up in the playoffs. In 2023, they went 3-7.

Hence the regime change.

A win against the Bills today would further legitimize this team and build momentum for an always-tough game against the Rams next week and a post-bye matchup with San Francisco. It is possible an insurmountable lead for the division title could be up for grabs by then.

If they beat Buffalo today, they take a step towards making that lofty thought a reality.

How do they do it?

It Starts and Ends with Josh Allen

No shock there. He is their MVP and one of the league’s most talented players. Containing, confusing, pressuring and outright stopping him is goal #1.

Just one stat to illustrate how the offense runs through him: Buffalo has had 77 third downs this year. The offense has called Allen’s number for a run or pass on 71 of those 77 plays. On only six plays have they handed the ball off to their running backs. That is 8% of third downs.

Defenses that are keying on Allen are more likely to make the stops. And they have been. Buffalo are converting third downs at a 33% rate, good for #25 in the NFL at this point. And not many teams have more three-and-outs this year. Why so much Josh Allen? And why so bad at converting third downs? They are having a first down problem. They run a ton of second-and-10’s and second-and-11’s and that limits their flexibility.

If the Seahawks defense can limit gains on first down, they will be well on their way to getting the ball back.

And while keying on him seems like an obvious statement, a lot of teams have been giving Allen plenty of room to operate. Many have been playing two-high safety and conceding the 7–15-yard zones, and Allen has been taking advantage of their generosity with his arm and his feet.

Why have teams been doing this? For some, it is their standard formation. For others, they prefer death by a million paper cuts to death by one killing blow of a deep pass.

The problem is, Buffalo has been terrible when they throw deep. They do not have a great deep threat, and Josh Allen typically responds to pressure with some scramble-hero-ball instead of throwing designed plays.

Evidence: Allen has an awful 32.26% completion rate on passes over 20 air yards through seven weeks.

A single-high strategy that gets more men into the intermediate zones would appear to be a way to defend him. The Houston Texans employed it in their Week Five matchup against Buffalo, and combined with 11 pressures (from a nice mix of getting pressure with four and blitzing) forced Allen into a horrid 9-for-30 day in a close loss to the Texans.

Teams have been keen to take advantage of the lack of weapons on the Buffalo offense. Josh Allen has had an uncharacteristic 55.4% completion rate when throwing to the right side of the field. He was far better there in previous years because he had Stefon Diggs frequently lining up there.

When you take away half of the field and do not have to respect the deep pass, it gives you a tremendous advantage.

That begs the question then: How are the Bills rolling at 5-2?

Answer: A combination of Josh Allen magic and getting lucky. Nobody walks the tightrope more than him – and by extension the Bills.

Allen can take that 55% rate to the right side of the field and turn it on its ear with his spectacular natural talent.

Teams that blitz Allen are holding him to a 50% completion rate. But they have also conceded seven touchdowns in seven games while blitzing.

Allen is a Top-5 player on PFF’s lists of Big-Time Throws and Turnover-Worthy Plays and yet he has zero interceptions on the year.

The Seahawks are just the team to make Allen have a market correction game. Coming off intercepting Kirk Cousins twice and stripping him for a game-turning touchdown, they have an excellent blend of pass-rush depth and ball hawking ability.

Allen is much better throwing to the left side of the field, with an impressive 69.23% completion rate. It will be fine matchup with Riq Woolen, who is currently conceding a 27.3% rate.

What of new acquisition Amari Cooper? Getting settled in and forming chemistry with Allen will take time. They will no doubt have a few routes for him to run, and Julian Love and Coby Bryant will need to be on their game.

As for Josh Allen running, I wonder if the Seahawks have someone who can shoot gaps and tackle him like a man.

Some Other Game Notes

-The Atlanta game was good for more reasons than one. Seattle got out to a great start and led 17-7 at halftime. They corrected a porous first-half run defense, stuffed the Falcons in the third quarter, and made them one-dimensional. They then stepped on the gas with the pass rush and forced Cousins into some terrible choices. That is the model for this game. The Bills are a horrible first-half offense and a great second-half one. After seven weeks, nobody in the NFL turns it around in the second half like Buffalo. The Seahawks need a repeat performance in this area.

-James Cook and Ray Davis are each averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Both are also averaging 1.9 yards before contact, one of the lowest averages for starting running backs in the NFL. If the Seahawks can successfully integrate Ernest Jones and make the transition back to WILL effective for Tyrell Dodson, and Byron Murphy can continue to be Byron Murphy, there is a real chance they can put even more of the game in Josh Allen’s hands.

-Terrell Bernard being out for this game could tip the balance. The Bills had already been conceding 5.1 yards per carry, one of the worst rates in the NFL. Of course, that includes a 271-yard disaster against Baltimore. Aside from that game, they are still at 4.42 yards per carry. Expect the Seahawks to simultaneously keep Josh Allen off the field and run up the score with a liberal mix of the running game. As well as get some play-action passes going with their backup Linebackers being forced into the lineup.

-Mike Jerrell is once again starting at Right Tackle. Buffalo will no doubt test him by putting Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa on him on nearly every play. He had a nice NFL debut last week ( here he is blocking out Matt Judon on a Ken Walker touchdown ) and it will be fascinating to see how he does with George Fant and Abe Lucas practicing again. It would not hurt to get him some occasional help from Pharaoh Brown or a chip from a releasing Running Back.

Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
I think he’ll be a top-10 pick. He has 914 yards after contact this season, 227 yards more than second placed Omarion Hampton on 29 fewer carries. He’s forced 56 missed tackles, way ahead of anyone else in college football. He runs through people, around people and he’s an unbelievable force of nature who should be the leader in the clubhouse for the Heisman.

Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
He’s taller and perhaps more elegant than Jeanty but he also packs a punch with 676 yards after contact — third most in college football. It’s been evident in multiple Iowa games this season that he was the best player on the field. I think he has star potential for the NFL and deserves a fringe first round grade.

Luke Lachey (TE, Iowa)
The son of a former first round Pro-Bowl offensive lineman, Lachey plays with that pedigree. He’s a terrific, willing blocker who does the dirty work very well. However, he’s also a very consistent, reliable receiver with better athletic qualities than I think people realise. He’s a complete tight end worthy of a second round grade and could be the next quality Iowa tight end to excel in the league.

Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
I don’t think he’s had as many highlight-reel pancakes this year but Booker always seems to be on top of his blocks, winning 1v1. He hasn’t given up a sack this season. He’s big at 6-5 and 325lbs but flashes 5-star recruit athleticism when he has to get on the move. Booker is well known for his excellent character. I think he could be a solid, reliable guard at the next level and he warrants a grade in the top-40.

Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
After an underwhelming 2023 season, Jackson returned to college instead of turning pro and it’s paid off. He’s returned to form and shone in games against Oregon and Iowa. A top athlete who can reportedly run a 1.59 split (I’m sceptical) he can also deliver a 30 inch vertical and an explosive 9-7 broad. These numbers and better performances could propel him into the top-40.

Josh Conerly (G, Oregon)
He’s playing left tackle for the Ducks but lacks the size and length to stick there at the next level. However, I absolutely love his playing style. Conerly gets after opponents — he is one of the most aggressive linemen I’ve seen in a while. He reminds me of a more compact version of Matthew Bergeron, taken 38th overall by the Falcons last year. I really like Conerly and think he’s a top-40 pick as a guard.

Jack Nelson (G/T, Wisconsin)
I’ve been watching Nelson for three years and it’s always struck me that while his tape is never spectacular — he just gets the job done. I don’t think he has the quickness with his kick-slide to stick at left tackle but do think he could be an excellent right tackle or guard. Personally I’d draft him to play left guard and think he deserves a day two grade.

Logan Jones (C, Iowa)
Jones is one of the most improved players in college football this year. He’s always been a fantastic athlete (36 inch vertical, 695lbs squat, 4.09 short shuttle) but his tape showed hit and miss technique and execution. This year he’s a different player completely. Everything has clicked. He’s only given up one sack and now the technique matches the elite athleticism. I’d draft him in the top-50 and within a few years I wouldn’t bet against him emerging as one of the better centers in the league.

Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
He wrecked the game against USC with an outstanding solo performance and he has consistently caused disruption thanks to a great burst off the edge, an aggressive mindset and a non-stop motor. His pass-rush win percentage of 28% leads all edge rushers by a mile — his team-mate TJ Guy is second with 21.8%. James Pearce Jr is at 20.8%. Keep an eye on Stewart for the Seahawks. Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves him apparently and Martindale was Mike Macdonald’s mentor back in the day. I think he’s a day two pick and size/testing will determine how early he goes.

TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
I think he’s the second best defensive tackle in the draft. His pass-rush win percentage is eighth among defensive tackles (13.3%) and he has an ability to wreck games from the interior that most players don’t have. He’s very quick, disruptive, good with his hands and he’s better than other bigger name DT’s eligible for 2025.

Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
What a player. He’s 6-3 and 227lbs but plays with better range than some smaller safeties. He has four interceptions this season, returning two for touchdowns. He has a NFL passer rating of just 20.5 against when targeted. He splits his snaps between free safety (101), the slot (100) and the box (221). He has as good a chance as anyone to be a Kyle Hamilton style safety and I think he deserves a fringe first round grade — provided he tests as well as I think he will.

Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
He was the best player on the field against Texas. Walker acted mostly as an impact edge rusher in the past but has now converted into a full-on modern-day hybrid. You can play him as a conventional linebacker and let him read/react to play downfield. He’s agile enough to drop. Then on passing downs he can rush the edge. He blasted Kelvin Banks Jr last weekend. He will be a high first round pick if the testing matches the tape.

DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
I like running backs who run through contact and Giddens has 602 yards after contact this season — good for fourth in college football. I graded him as a day two pick last year and was surprised he returned to school. He’s not missed a beat and at times looks like a poor man’s Alvin Kamara with his running style, elusiveness, strength and versatility.

Jordan James (RB, Oregon)
A powerful runner who dishes out punishment and loves to get his head down and embrace contact. He delivers explosive runs to go with the power, generated from a lower center of gravity on a thick build. He has 23 +10 yard runs this season, two fewer than Ashton Jeanty and three fewer than Kaleb Johnson. I think James will be excellent value on day two.

Ricky White III (WR, UNLV)
One of my very favourite players to track this season. White has a frame reminiscent of Nuk Hopkins. I think he plays with the same kind of nouse and natural talent as Hopkins showed at Clemson. He’s a natural hands catcher, he tracks the ball in the air brilliantly, he can create late separation and he delivers the key conversions and the big plays. I can’t believe he isn’t talked about more. Testing is important but I think he could be a second rounder.

Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
You don’t expect to be moved to excitement watching a Bowling Green tight end but Fannin Jr is the real deal. He isn’t asked to do any real blocking (only four blocking snaps this season so far) but as a receiver he’s highly dynamic — showing off great athleticism, eye-catching grabs and he could be a X-factor weapon in the right NFL offense. He’s a day two talent.

Xavier Restrepo (WR, Miami)
A pillar of consistency, Restrepo just seems destined to come into the league and be a reception machine. He can run all the routes, his hands are very safe (only one drop this season so far) and while he’s not going to run a blistering forty — he’s quick enough. It won’t be a surprise if, like a few other receivers over the years, he goes on day two and everyone wonders how the hell that happened in a few years time.

Nicholas Singleton (RB, Penn State)
His athleticism really stands out. He looks like a Penn State athlete. Singleton is a great combination of explosive traits, quickness and power. I think his best football might come at the next level and there’s an untapped potential here that could really be harnessed. I’ve given him a day two grade.

Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The heart-beat of the Penn State offense. Warren lines up at quarterback and throws the ball, he’ll plow ahead in short-yardage situations as a ball-carrier, he blocks and he’s their most dynamic pass-catching weapon. Drew Allar tends to force the ball to him. He’s big, athletic and he can make spectacular grabs. Depending on testing he’s a fringe first rounder.

Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU)
No other quarterback eligible for 2025 has thrown as many NFL caliber throws as Nussmeier. His anticipation, accuracy and processing is on a different level. His arm is good not great and he lacks the athleticism to be a creative off-platform thrower or an escape artist under pressure. He also needs to cut out the mistakes. However, there’s so much technical ability to work with here. I have him among four quarterbacks with second round grades (I have no quarterbacks with a first round grade at the moment).

Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
The son of former Miami pass-rusher Jason Taylor has everything needed to be a very good NFL tight end. He’s incredibly quick and dynamic for his size and can slip into coverage holes with ease to make big plays. His run after the catch ability is unusually good for his position. As a blocker there’s potential to be above average at the next level. Taylor has a second round grade on my horizontal board.

Jake Majors (C, Texas)
The only Texas O-liner, for me, who played well against Georgia. Majors is a former four-star recruit and his athleticism shows on tape. He’s very technically sound and gets his hands on opponents quickly. He has a strong back to stall bull-rush attempts. He’s played at a high level all year and has the makings of a long-term NFL center who should go on day two.

Kurtis Rourke (QB, Indiana)
I didn’t expect to be as impressed with Rourke as I was, given nobody’s really talking about him from a NFL perspective. He likes to attack opponents and you see complex throws deep to the sideline into tight windows. He delivers over the middle. He scans the field well to find open receivers. His arm is decent and prior to his injury, he was leading one of the best functioning offense’s in college football. I’ve given him a day two grade and hope he can return to face Michigan and Ohio State.

Josh Kreutz (C, Illinois)
Kreutz is a no-nonsense, physical tough guy who’ll beat you up in a head-on situation. The son of NFL great Olin Kreutz, he isn’t much of an operator in space and isn’t often seen reaching to the second level. He likes to attack 1v1 at the line of scrimmage and he does an excellent job winning those battles with an aggressive attitude. I think he’s a third rounder like his dad who could end up having a good career.

Kyle Monangai (RB, Rutgers)
Rutgers has this knack of chucking solid running backs into the league and Monangai is a lot of fun to watch. He has 550 yards after contact this season, good for eighth most in college football. His gait makes him tough to bring down and he finishes runs. He can also deliver explosive plays with 22 runs of +10 yards. I have him graded in round three.

Josh Williams (RB, LSU)
He works in a rotation and it’s clear that LSU really like their younger, upcoming backs to provide a spark. However, every time I see Williams run I think ‘this guy can play’. He’s well sized at 5-9 and 210lbs, has an aggressive running style and could lead a rushing attack for many other teams. He wears the legendary #18 jersey for LSU. He’ll not be drafted early, if at all, but I’d back him to make a roster and maybe provide a rotational impact somewhere.

Billy Edwards Jr (QB, Maryland)
He really caught the eye when I studied his tape. He’s unheralded by the media but he can deliver the ball to all areas of the field, he can make gains with his legs and he does a good job on third downs. He plays on a team that has given up 69 pressures this year (31st most in CFB) yet he’s only been responsible for three personally. He leads college football for big time throws (21), his turnover worthy play numbers compare well (7) and when under pressure he has a BTT/TWP ratio of 6/2. He might not declare for the 2025 draft but he’s one to watch.

Ja’Quinden Jackson (RB, Arkansas)
Yet another running back with a physical running style, good size, finishes his runs and has an explosive element to his game (20 runs of 10+ yards this season). This draft class is loaded with running backs who can start or at least contribute in a one-two punch at the next level. I have Jackson graded in round three currently.

Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
He has 30 pressures this season (fifth most in college football) and nine sacks. However, beyond the stats the most impressive thing with Ezeiruaku is how he moves in space. He’s adept at holding the edge, reading and reacting. His closing speed can then kick into gear and he flies to the ball — so he’ll have no trouble fitting as a 3-4 OLB. He can also dip under a tackle 1v1 and straighten to the quarterback. Testing will determine how early he goes but I’d suggest he’s a day two pick.

Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
For me he’s the complete defensive tackle and vying with Travis Hunter and Will Johnson to be the most talented player eligible for the 2025 draft. He can win with pure power or quickness, he can counter with a spin move or a push-pull, he’s stout against the run. He has 21 pressures this season, fourth most among defensive tackles. Graham is going to be a top pro at the next level and play for a long time. He’s a top-five pick in this class for me.

Players I think are a bit overrated

Will Campbell (T, LSU)
Short arms (32 inches) mean he’ll almost certainly have to kick inside, he’s struggled in pass-pro this year and I’ve always been left wanting more aggression in his play. I have him as a day two guard.

Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
Good athlete he may be but I think his tape has been average this season. He’s playing next to one of the best defensive tackles we’ve seen in recent history and has minimal impact. I think he’s a mid-rounder based mostly on athletic upside.

Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
A lot of these bigger edge rushers come into the league and never really amount to anything. I don’t think he has the quickness to be a top pass rusher at the next level and will be limited to early down work. He only has three sacks this year and 19 pressures. I think he’s a third round type for a team that wants to add a bit of edge robustness.

JT Tuimoloau & Jack Sawyer (Ohio State)
I’m just not convinced either are dynamic difference makers at the next level.

Deontae Lawson (LB, Alabama)
I thought his build and ability to attack around the LOS was worth mentioning as a fourth round type but suddenly he’s being talked up a lot more. I think there’s a lack of quickness that will make him a one-dimensional linebacker at the next level.

Carson Beck (QB, Georgia)
I know people are increasingly dropping him due to his performances this year but I think his ball-placement and accuracy has always been an issue and it’s only getting worse with every passing week. I don’t think he has enough upside to look beyond that and likely isn’t a NFL starter.

Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
With better weapons and a functioning offense this year, Allar has looked better. I still think he reminds me of Mike Glennon. There’s an awkwardness to his mobility that puts me off and while he is capable of making some eye-catching passes with his size and arm — he only has a paltry eight ‘big time throws’ this year compared to four turnover worthy plays. I think he’s a day three type.

This week I spent some time studying Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke. He burst onto the scene this season with the Hoosiers starting 7-0 under intriguing Head Coach Curt Cignetti.

I’m not familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (no relation to Kyle) but the first thing that stood out to me was how well the Indiana offense functions. Their pass protection is good, the receivers run crisp routes and everything is effective, on time and it works.

Rourke certainly plays his part in this — he gets the ball out quickly, he seems to have a strong grasp of the scheme and as the distributor of the football, he is the focal point. Yet it’s been quite a while since I watched an offense function at this level. Cignetti and his staff deserve a lot of credit.

From a draft perspective it’s actually helpful that Rourke isn’t playing against Washington this weekend due to a thumb injury. Now we get to see how the offense operates without him to compare. Hopefully he’ll be back for contests against Michigan’s NFL-heavy defense and Ohio State — two vital games that will help shape his stock (and Indiana’s season).

With all this in mind, how do you assess his play? The first thing I’d say is he’s always in attack mode and I like that. He’s willing to go after every area of the field. Often a highly functioning offense includes a lot of cheap short passes and run after the catch situations. That isn’t the case with Indiana. They go for chunks of yardage with their throws.

I think he scans the field very well. You can see him waiting for routes to develop. He does a good job with his ball placement and he’s mastered the back-shoulder throw. There are some impressive passes on tape that I would compare to Michael Penix last year where he throws from the far hash to the opposite sideline with timing, velocity and accuracy. He doesn’t have Penix’s arm talent but that’s not a knock, few do.

Indiana’s giving up just 2.5 sacks per game which is pretty good — it’s the 29th best rate in college football. In comparison, Garrett Nussmeier at LSU is being sacked four times a game — the second highest rate. Everyone talks up the two LSU tackles as NFL prospects but they haven’t played well this season.

Part of Indiana’s low sack rate, though, is the quickness with which Rourke distributes the ball. There’s never any messing about. Yet while watching tape, I didn’t see him under constant duress at any point.

PFF tracks pressures allowed/created by the quarterback and not the O-line. Here are the numbers for the season so far:

Shedeur Sanders — 20
Garrett Nussmeier — 13
Cam Ward — 10
Brady Cook — 10
Carson Beck — 9
Seth Henigan — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Jaxson Dart — 9
Drew Allar — 8
Miller Moss — 8
Quinn Ewers — 7
Kyle McCord — 6
Will Howard — 5
Billy Edwards Jr — 3
Kurtis Rourke — 3

I think this is a combination of everything clicking for Indiana on offense — the quarterback getting the ball out quickly and the protection being good. It’s a positive all round. Can Rourke do this at the next level? Will he get an environment that allows him to be this economic and effective? That’s a question teams will ask.

He only has 10 ‘big time throws’ for the season compared to six ‘turnover worthy plays’. So while he’s PFF’s top graded passer in college football currently — he’s not asked to complete many difficult throws. Meanwhile, the six turnover worthy plays within this environment is a bit of a concern — because you wonder if that number grows in a harder pro environment.

Here are some of the names among the top ‘big time throw’ leaders this season:

Billy Edwards Jr — 21
Kyle McCord — 21
Cam Ward — 20
Shedeur Sanders — 19
Seth Henigan — 15
Garrett Nussmeier — 14
Jaxson Dart — 14
Kurtis Rourke — 10

Here are the TWP numbers for the list above:

Kyle McCord — 11
Cam Ward — 9
Jaxson Dart — 8
Billy Edwards Jr — 7
Seth Henigan — 7
Garrett Nussmeier — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 6
Shedeur Sanders — 4

Now here are the BTT/TWP numbers when a quarterback is under pressure:

Cam Ward — 8/4
Kyle McCord — 7/3
Billy Edwards Jr — 6/2
Shedeur Sanders — 6/2
Kurtis Rourke — 5/2
Garrett Nussmeier — 2/4
Jaxson Dart — 2/4
Seth Henigan — 2/5

I think this stat is interesting because it highlights how pressure has effected quarterbacks in a bigger way than others. The fact that half of Rourke’s big time throws have come when he’s under pressure is a positive. Meanwhile, only two of Nussmeier’s 12 came under pressure.

Note how well Billy Edwards Jr rates in these categories — a player I wrote about here.

Rourke has good size, a very decent arm and he does deliver passes with touch to varying levels of the field. There are certain offensive schemes where you can imagine him having a lot of success. He’s another player who I think would work very well in the Shanahan system — one that lays the table for a quarterback and they have to read their keys and distribute the ball quickly and accurately.

I also think he’d look great in the DeBoer/Grubb offense we saw at Washington. Thus, he might be considered a fit in Seattle. He definitely has the size and attacking mindset I think John Schneider likes.

I’m increasingly convinced that you need a level of mobility, escapability and an ability to play off-platform if you’re going to thrive in the NFL. Rourke is not agile or a great mover. He’s not terrible either. Looking at some of his Ohio tape I thought he was a bit leaner and more mobile/nimble. He looks bigger and a bit slower at Indiana.

There are examples where he does get out of the pocket and he can deliver on the run. He can also scramble for a few yards when the opportunity emerges and he can manipulate the pocket to extend. At the next level though, where everyone is faster, I’m not sure he’ll be effective to extend, create and play off-platform.

Overall I was impressed. His ball placement is good, he’s executing the offense at a high level, he attacks the defense to every level, he’s a big, tall passer with a good arm and I’m intrigued to see more.

I think you have to look for special physical qualities in college QB’s and/or look at the players who are performing in situations that are transferable (eg — anticipation throwing, dealing with a lot of pressure, third down conversions etc). I’m not sure Rourke has special qualities or the transferable situational tape — but there’s something here that at the very least makes him interesting from a NFL perspective.

For what it’s worth, Indiana has the seventh best third down conversion percentage in college football (50.8%). I will go back and track Rourke in third down situations before the end of the year.

This isn’t a great quarterback class. I don’t think it’s as bad as 2022 — but I don’t currently have anyone I feel comfortable grading in round one. It won’t be a surprise if Rourke’s star rises if he can return to health and play well in the big games coming up for Indiana.

I wrote some thoughts down on the Ernest Jones IV trade earlier (have a read if you missed them). I was also on with Puck Sports shortly after the deal was confirmed to provide some near-instant reaction. You can watch our conversation below:

The Seahawks are trading LB Jerome Baker and a fourth-round pick to Tennessee for LB Ernest Jones IV, a source tells me.

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 23, 2024

Brady Henderson has confirmed the Seahawks are sending a 2025 fourth rounder to the Titans, plus Jerome Baker, for the former Rams linebacker Ernest Jones.

My initial thought is I don’t know what to make of this move. While it’ll be a decent immediate benefit if the Seahawks gain better run defense and health at the linebacker position, Jones only cost the Titans a swap of 2026 late round picks a few weeks ago (a sixth for a fifth). Now, seven games into the season, his price has suddenly jumped to a fourth rounder in 2025.

That doesn’t really make sense in terms of value from a Seahawks perspective.

Furthermore, it’s very much a rental deal. Jones is out of contract in the off-season. It’s possible this is a trade with a view to retaining him beyond 2024 if things work out. If not, they just spent a non-throwaway pick on a short-term measure that I’m not entirely sure will be a quick fix.

It could be. Jones’ run defense grade last season, per PFF, was a superb 90.0. The year before it was a 78.8. Let’s not forget though that he was playing behind Aaron Donald in LA. Without Donald, Jones’ run defense grade dropped to 68.4. Jerome Baker’s was a 62.6.

It also speaks a little bit to a lack of trust in Tyrice Knight, who they recently used a fourth round pick on, that they felt obliged to spend a decent amount to replace Baker, rather than just give Knight more opportunities.

I’m sure someone will point out that if he leaves as a free agent next off-season he could get a contract that returns a comp pick to Seattle. I’d suggest that might be unlikely given he was dealt by the Rams for so little to Tennessee and now he’s been traded again to the Seahawks. Perhaps Mike Macdonald can elevate his play to the level where a big contract is forthcoming? The Rams made a decision they wouldn’t pay him, which is why he wanted a trade in the first place.

The Seahawks are scheduled to have two fourth round picks in 2025 thanks to a comp pick — so you could reason it’s a worthwhile shot to see if Jones can provide an answer for Seattle. It just all feels a bit like a ‘band-aid’. That once again the team is trying to fix issues during a season — and this one (run defense) has been around for too long now, through two Head Coaches.

I’ve not studied Jones’ play enough in LA or Tennessee to have an opinion on whether he’s likely to become a figurehead for the defense. Per PFF, he had a breakout 2023 but has otherwise not had spectacular grades. He has a reputation for being a physical, thumping linebacker. They do need more of that. If he plays lights out, adds further tone-setting to the defense, shores up the run and eventually signs an extension — spending a fourth rounder won’t be a problem in the slightest. The risk of a rental is always that, on the other side, if he just walks away in a few months it won’t be great.

I look forward to watching him play and seeing if Seattle can fix their problems defending the run. I’m just not keen on the price — Baker plus a 2024 fourth rounder for 10 games of Jones, when the Titans didn’t even give up a pick to acquire him before the season — doesn’t sound right.