This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
Last week we talked about the Seahawks having a game that could be a turning point for them in this young season. And boy did they deliver.
A 34-14 win over a hot Atlanta Falcons team in their building was impressive. The offense played a clean game with no turnovers, Ken Walker ran well despite being ill, the defense harassed Kirk Cousins and forced three turnovers despite giving rookies and Practice Squad players copious amounts of snaps.
They provided an answer about their season in that game. But it is only the beginning. To truly make the Atlanta win a turning point, they need to play well against Buffalo this week (and the Rams next week).
And so, we have another litmus test in the Buffalo Bills today. They are in a prime position to secure a playoff spot. They stand at 5-2 and are three games ahead of every team in their division.
How have the Seahawks fared against playoff teams?
In 2022, they were 2-5 against teams that ended up in the playoffs. In 2023, they went 3-7.
Hence the regime change.
A win against the Bills today would further legitimize this team and build momentum for an always-tough game against the Rams next week and a post-bye matchup with San Francisco. It is possible an insurmountable lead for the division title could be up for grabs by then.
If they beat Buffalo today, they take a step towards making that lofty thought a reality.
How do they do it?
It Starts and Ends with Josh Allen
No shock there. He is their MVP and one of the league’s most talented players. Containing, confusing, pressuring and outright stopping him is goal #1.
Just one stat to illustrate how the offense runs through him: Buffalo has had 77 third downs this year. The offense has called Allen’s number for a run or pass on 71 of those 77 plays. On only six plays have they handed the ball off to their running backs. That is 8% of third downs.
Defenses that are keying on Allen are more likely to make the stops. And they have been. Buffalo are converting third downs at a 33% rate, good for #25 in the NFL at this point. And not many teams have more three-and-outs this year. Why so much Josh Allen? And why so bad at converting third downs? They are having a first down problem. They run a ton of second-and-10’s and second-and-11’s and that limits their flexibility.
If the Seahawks defense can limit gains on first down, they will be well on their way to getting the ball back.
And while keying on him seems like an obvious statement, a lot of teams have been giving Allen plenty of room to operate. Many have been playing two-high safety and conceding the 7–15-yard zones, and Allen has been taking advantage of their generosity with his arm and his feet.
Why have teams been doing this? For some, it is their standard formation. For others, they prefer death by a million paper cuts to death by one killing blow of a deep pass.
The problem is, Buffalo has been terrible when they throw deep. They do not have a great deep threat, and Josh Allen typically responds to pressure with some scramble-hero-ball instead of throwing designed plays.
Evidence: Allen has an awful 32.26% completion rate on passes over 20 air yards through seven weeks.
A single-high strategy that gets more men into the intermediate zones would appear to be a way to defend him. The Houston Texans employed it in their Week Five matchup against Buffalo, and combined with 11 pressures (from a nice mix of getting pressure with four and blitzing) forced Allen into a horrid 9-for-30 day in a close loss to the Texans.
Teams have been keen to take advantage of the lack of weapons on the Buffalo offense. Josh Allen has had an uncharacteristic 55.4% completion rate when throwing to the right side of the field. He was far better there in previous years because he had Stefon Diggs frequently lining up there.
When you take away half of the field and do not have to respect the deep pass, it gives you a tremendous advantage.
That begs the question then: How are the Bills rolling at 5-2?
Answer: A combination of Josh Allen magic and getting lucky. Nobody walks the tightrope more than him – and by extension the Bills.
Allen can take that 55% rate to the right side of the field and turn it on its ear with his spectacular natural talent.
Teams that blitz Allen are holding him to a 50% completion rate. But they have also conceded seven touchdowns in seven games while blitzing.
Allen is a Top-5 player on PFF’s lists of Big-Time Throws and Turnover-Worthy Plays and yet he has zero interceptions on the year.
The Seahawks are just the team to make Allen have a market correction game. Coming off intercepting Kirk Cousins twice and stripping him for a game-turning touchdown, they have an excellent blend of pass-rush depth and ball hawking ability.
Allen is much better throwing to the left side of the field, with an impressive 69.23% completion rate. It will be fine matchup with Riq Woolen, who is currently conceding a 27.3% rate.
What of new acquisition Amari Cooper? Getting settled in and forming chemistry with Allen will take time. They will no doubt have a few routes for him to run, and Julian Love and Coby Bryant will need to be on their game.
As for Josh Allen running, I wonder if the Seahawks have someone who can shoot gaps and tackle him like a man.
Some Other Game Notes
-The Atlanta game was good for more reasons than one. Seattle got out to a great start and led 17-7 at halftime. They corrected a porous first-half run defense, stuffed the Falcons in the third quarter, and made them one-dimensional. They then stepped on the gas with the pass rush and forced Cousins into some terrible choices. That is the model for this game. The Bills are a horrible first-half offense and a great second-half one. After seven weeks, nobody in the NFL turns it around in the second half like Buffalo. The Seahawks need a repeat performance in this area.
-James Cook and Ray Davis are each averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Both are also averaging 1.9 yards before contact, one of the lowest averages for starting running backs in the NFL. If the Seahawks can successfully integrate Ernest Jones and make the transition back to WILL effective for Tyrell Dodson, and Byron Murphy can continue to be Byron Murphy, there is a real chance they can put even more of the game in Josh Allen’s hands.
-Terrell Bernard being out for this game could tip the balance. The Bills had already been conceding 5.1 yards per carry, one of the worst rates in the NFL. Of course, that includes a 271-yard disaster against Baltimore. Aside from that game, they are still at 4.42 yards per carry. Expect the Seahawks to simultaneously keep Josh Allen off the field and run up the score with a liberal mix of the running game. As well as get some play-action passes going with their backup Linebackers being forced into the lineup.
-Mike Jerrell is once again starting at Right Tackle. Buffalo will no doubt test him by putting Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa on him on nearly every play. He had a nice NFL debut last week ( here he is blocking out Matt Judon on a Ken Walker touchdown ) and it will be fascinating to see how he does with George Fant and Abe Lucas practicing again. It would not hurt to get him some occasional help from Pharaoh Brown or a chip from a releasing Running Back.
