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Let me be clear, I’m a fan of Mike Macdonald’s. He speaks with a real authority during interviews and there are no wasted words. He’s succinct, his messaging is clear and there’s no doubt he’s a good communicator without needing to speak like Mel Gibson in Braveheart.
You can see he’s having a positive impact on a Ravens defense that ranked #1 per DVOA. Baltimore became the first defense in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed, sacks and turnovers this season. Macdonald absolutely is the kind of candidate the Seahawks should be talking to, picking his brains, seeing what his broader vision is and considering whether or not he should be the Head Coach for the next era of this franchise.
But I’ve noticed in recent days that Seahawks fans and media have started to go a bit too far. Macdonald’s reputation is taking on a life of its own. I’ve seen the words ‘defensive wunderkind’ used. People are saying he’s the antidote to ‘McShanahan’. Really? As we’ll see, the statistical evidence doesn’t back that up. All the while it’s being ignored that the structure of the Ravens, crafted over two decades, has enabled coordinators to be swapped in and out with little drop-off in performance.
Did you know that in the last 27 seasons, the Ravens have been the #1 ranked defense per DVOA five times and they were ranked in the top-10 every year between 1999 and 2011? There’s been a consistent run of success, irrespective of who the defensive coordinator is.
It’s also pretty clear that the Ravens benefit from having the NFL MVP quarterbacking their team. Lamar Jackson has been a revelation this season, earning a 90.9 PFF grade. We’ll come on to just how effective Baltimore’s offense has been in a moment — because it’s helped the defense in a way that has to be seen to be believed.
Firstly though, let’s fact-check some things about Macdonald and his ability to push back against Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.
Here’s how Baltimore’s defense faired against the Rams:
— 410 total yards conceded
— 6/16 third down
— 31 points conceded
— 128 rushing yards
— 34:35 TOP
— Zero turnovers
This was a game played in Baltimore, won in overtime 37-31 thanks to a kick-return walk-off touchdown. The Rams really should’ve won this game, despite a fairly typical offensive performance from Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense (449 total yards).
Baltimore’s defense and their inability to get an angle on McVay and Matt Stafford almost cost them a win and contributed very little to a victory spurred by the offense and special teams.
Now let’s look at Baltimore’s impressive 33-19 win against the 49ers and how they handled Shanahan’s offense:
— 429 total yards conceded
— 6/14 third down
— 121 rushing yards
— 6.7 yards per rush
Again, it’s not exactly a reassuring set of statistics. These are the kind of stat-lines we’ve come to expect from the Seahawks against the Rams and Niners.
Baltimore won the game in Santa Clara mainly due to four Brock Purdy interceptions. You can watch them all by clicking here. Two are bad Purdy mistakes, two involve a large slice of turnover luck:
Interception #1 — A bad read from Purdy, not doing enough to hold Kyle Hamilton away from the intended target and throwing into a dangerously tight window that was easy to undercut.
Interception #2 — A batted pass at the LOS which wildly lands right into the hands of another pass rusher at the opposite end of the line.
Interception #3 — Purdy does his best Russell Wilson impression to scramble away from trouble, throws into tight 1v1 coverage and the ball is deflected up into the air and picked off on the rebound by another Ravens defender.
Interception #4 — An inaccurate throw by Purdy going to Christian McCaffrey, right into the hands of a grateful Patrick Queen.
To be fair, the Ravens’ defense was flying around all night and that no doubt flustered Purdy and led to mistakes. It should be acknowledged, though, that Shanahan moved the ball pretty much at will in the game and avoidable turnovers cost San Francisco. Lamar Jackson was also superb on the night.
Now let’s look at some other examples. The Ravens hammered the Dolphins a few weeks ago 56-19. I’ve seen this game used as an example of a Shanahan disciple in Mike McDaniel being ‘shut down’ by the Ravens’ defense. Miami still recorded 375 total yards and ran for 154. They were 6/15 on third downs. Why did the Ravens blow them away? Lamar Jackson. He had five touchdowns passes, over 350 total yards and was a relentless scoring machine. The scoreboard pressure applied was immense. McDaniel and his Shanahan-esque offense, though, still moved the ball.
The two teams also played in 2022, with Miami winning 42-38 in Baltimore. McDaniel’s offense produced 547 total yards, were 7/11 on third downs and Tua Tagovailoa had six touchdown passes. Again, there was very little pushback against the Shanahan scheme.
Remember when the Seahawks beat the Browns this season? Two weeks later, that same Cleveland team went to Baltimore and beat the Ravens 33-31 with a barely healthy Deshaun Watson limping around at quarterback. They won by running for 178 yards and going 8/16 on third downs.
There’s a bit of a common theme here — the Ravens not defending the run very well. They gave up 4.5 YPC on the season, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league.
None of this really speaks to a formula that can consistently shut down the 49ers and Rams.
Now in fairness, over the course of the season Baltimore’s opponent third-down conversion rate (36.26%) ranked sixth best in the league. As we see above though, they weren’t too clever against the Shanahan/McVay systems in this area.
It’s also a lot easier to play great defense when your offense stacks up points, applies weekly scoreboard pressure and can tee-off. That is what the Ravens do because of the brilliance of Lamar Jackson.
Curtis Allen pulled out a great statistic to highlight this advantage for Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens’ defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They barely played any time at all without a lead, in the entire 2023 season. Baltimore’s offense ranked top-five in first, second and third quarter scoring as well as time of possession. They had 193 snaps when tied to go with the 88 when trailing, compared to the defense playing 831 snaps when ahead. This is unprecedented.
Now, maybe it’s possible for the Seahawks to similarly create an offense that can achieve all of this, rank fourth in DVOA and produce the NFL MVP in 2024 or beyond? Until that happens though, you won’t be creating the kind of environment where Macdonald’s defense thrived this season.
A shout-out too to blog commenter Peter who highlighted another statistic of note. From 2003-2023, the Ravens have only had four seasons where they didn’t rank in the top-10 for defensive points allowed. Within that 20-year span, they were in the top-five 14 times. Since Lamar Jackson was drafted, there’s only been one season where the defense didn’t rank in the top-five in points allowed — and that was a year where he only played 12 games.
There are two things to take from this. Firstly, we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of having a phenomenal quarterback who helps the Ravens score points quickly with explosive plays, manages the offense like a more traditional QB when required yet can also be an incredible playmaker as a runner. Jackson is basically what everyone hoped Michael Vick would be, and then some. He’s going to be a two-time NFL MVP in a few weeks and possibly a Super Bowl winner. If he wins a ring, he’ll be on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.
Secondly, the Ravens have done a tremendous job building a defense whoever the coordinator is. From Rex Ryan to Chuck Pagano to Dean Pees to Wink Martindale and now Mike Macdonald. They’ve all enjoyed success. Yet aside from Ryan’s fleeting purple patch with the Jets, neither he nor Pagano enjoyed lasting glory as a Head Coach. Let’s put it this way, if Macdonald departs Baltimore — it’ll be a safe bet that their defense will continue to excel.
The Ravens are a unique animal. We should probably talk about this more. They haven’t always been an amazing team — but they have consistently been able to build a roster that fits a certain style and image. Ozzie Newsome was the architect of identifying ‘what is a Raven?’ and his chosen heir — Eric DeCosta — has carried it on. The results speak for themselves.
This has enabled Baltimore to consistently produce a strong defensive brand of football, a running game and they’ve done a good job drafting for the quarterback position (Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl as the 18th pick in round one, Jackson may win one as a former 32nd overall pick).
That’s not to take anything away from the coordinators, who still need to bring everything together. The point is though, there are a lot of moving parts within the greater Baltimore machine. Can you plausibly take one part of that machine, have it shipped to Seattle and transfer the successful formula? Can anyone truly copy ‘what it means to be a Raven’ and apply it to their own structure? Or do you have to try and work out your own style and identity?
Not enough time has been spent wondering if Macdonald is a system coordinator, ideally suited to working within the structure he’s been brought up in. That might sound harsh but it’s an inconvenient topic we should broach if he’s going to lead the next era of Seahawks football. Can you take him out of Baltimore and transfer it to Seattle with the players and situation he will inherit? Or is he a young coach working in an ideal environment to succeed, with everything in place — a great front office making excellent personnel decisions, an experienced Head Coach and staff in support, a brilliant quarterback aiding the defense by scoring so many points. It’ll be different in Seattle.
This warrants some contemplation, yet at the moment the feeling around Macdonald is more one of wanting the trendy new, young coordinator on the team who is doing well without really digging into whether this is a Macdonald thing, a Ravens thing, a Lamar thing or — most likely — a bit of everything.
Then there’s another dilemma to consider. Who’s going to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator? This is a key question. The Seahawks will not become a great team without the right caliber of play-caller and quarterback for the long haul.
Robert Saleh was similar to Macdonald a few years ago — a trendy young coordinator hire who benefitted a lot from the Shanahan offense and stars on defense. Once he was given the main job, what happened? His defensive output translated but very little else has. The Jets have a good defense every year but they’re hopeless on offense. They’ve fired one offensive coordinator, seen a quarterback drafted #2 overall bust, ended up trading for Aaron Rodgers and they’re going to spend the next off-season scrambling to put a functioning offense together.
The Seahawks will do well to be as dysfunctional as the Jets and they have better pieces on offense. But it goes to show that a team, even with a good defense, tend to only be as good as the offensive play-caller and quarterback. After all, it’s not just the Jets. The Patriots, Raiders and Jaguars all ranked in the top-10 for defense per DVOA. All struggled on offense and had disastrous seasons.
It’s also worth noting, interestingly, that nine of the 13 highest ranked defenses started last season without a defensive-minded Head Coach. Only three of the 13 highest ranked offenses had a non-offensive mind in charge.
Macdonald has only ever worked for the Harbaugh’s in Michigan and Baltimore. What is his contact list like? How is he going to compete with Jim Harbaugh as he puts a staff together in LA? Who can he take from Baltimore, given John Harbaugh will likely seek to promote from within if he loses his defensive coordinator?
Is the plan to try and coax Mike Kafka to ask for his release from the Giants to be offensive coordinator? I guess that might work. Maybe. But if it’s not him, what are the other options? At a time when Shane Waldron was snapped off the market straight away, Kliff Kingsbury is getting a good look by multiple teams and Chip Kelly’s name is seriously doing the rounds — there aren’t many good options to bring in as a coordinator. If you find someone who succeeds, you also run the risk of losing them straight away and having to go through the whole process again.
I’ll say it again — this isn’t something that ever seems to get talked about amid all the ‘get Macdonald to Seattle pronto’ chatter online.
The situation won’t be helped, either, by the fact the Seahawks have to wait until February 12th to even have an introductory meeting with Macdonald. That’s a long time to wait to find out how much shared interest there is in the position, whether visions mesh and whether you think this is the right direction to take. By the time the Super Bowl has finished, are you left sifting through the remaining available staff? What if the Ravens lose the Super Bowl if they get there and he has a change of heart and opts to stay put to finish the job?
All of this probably sounds like I’m anti-hiring Macdonald. Again, I’m not. I feel like I have to talk about these things because nobody else seems to want to. I think he comes across well, his players are clearly very organised, the Ravens might win the Super Bowl and he would’ve played a key role in that.
However — all of the context above in this article also matters.
My preference has been the same from the moment Pete Carroll was fired. Rightly or wrongly, the Seahawks have built their team around offensive skill players. They’ve paid the likes of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett huge salaries, they’ve used high picks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet and if Geno Smith is retained, he’ll possibly be earning $31.2m next year.
Rather than say, ‘well the offense is fine, find a defensive coach’ — I’d rather focus on maxing out the production of the weapons you have. The Seahawks should be getting more out of the likes of Metcalf. They should be trying to do what the Ravens are doing — outscore opponents and apply pressure. They have the personnel to do it.
We’ve seen how Metcalf and co. underachieved under a defensive Head Coach. I want to see the kind of production Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are enjoying in Detroit. We’ve tried the defensive route for the last few years, isn’t it time to try something else?
Whether we want to accept it or not, the Seahawks are far closer to the Lions than the Ravens. They have the weapons, they don’t have a great defense. The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to try and emulate the Lions by being an offense-driven team with a complementary defense. If Detroit can parlay that into a legit run at the Super Bowl, there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t.
I’m hoping all of the talk about Ben Johnson being ‘a done deal’ to the Commanders is inaccurate and there’s still a card to be played by John Schneider and the Seahawks this week. If there is, they should push all of their chips into the middle of the table and play that card. Get Johnson in Seattle, set him the task of turning the Seahawks’ offense into the Lions and then go and get a defensive coordinator to help support him. Offer Ejiro Evero or Patrick Graham a pay rise and an Assistant Head Coach title to make it happen. This, to me, would be the best decision based on the current state of the Seahawks’ roster, with the intention of resetting in a new direction quickly with the intention of being more than a team that muddles around making up the playoff numbers.
And before anyone says anything about Detroit’s offensive line — both of their guards are free agents. Go get them.
I don’t think any defensive-minded Head Coach is coming in to ‘limit’ Shanahan and McVay without a significant period of transformative work to the roster, including being bad enough to one day draft a blue-chip talent. I think the best thing to do is square-up to your two division opponents and try to outscore them.
Ben Johnson, to me, has always been the home-run hire. If it’s simply not possible to get him and the Seahawks pivot to Macdonald, fine. But let’s at least be honest about what that means.
This is a great, spot-on assessment of MacDonald. To me, this seems like hiring one of Belichick’s assistants and expecting your team to become the Patriots. MacDonald may become a fine HC, but there are valid concerns.
Meanwhile, here’s a guy I’d be interested in pairing with Johnson/Slowik as DC. He’s from the Ravens’ tree, as well.
https://twitter.com/JoshHenschke/status/1751287074676744495?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Chargers DC
Agree with you 100%. I think what makes 49ers , Ravens, and Browns so good on defense is because of the talent they have. 49ers have gone through 3 different defenses coordinators but still play like a top 5 defense because of the talent they bring in. With everything JS in his press conference, there should be no excuses to not get someone like Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik. Time will tell if what he said about offensive coaches and the word “stagnant” are all talk.
Rob, just curious, but are you increasingly getting to a place where anyone but Johnson will feel like a missed opportunity? The vibe in your written thoughts in recent days about this process leads one to think so. Would Slowik suddenly feel like an afterthought if JS went that way?
After Evero’s second interview today, it’s entirely possible that John, Jody and Vulcan are going to make a full court press on Johnson…. which sounds filthy, but I digress. I’d be curious if any of the Seahawks upper management will be in Santa Clara tomorrow and making their presence felt by the Lions’ OC. Perhaps a “press the flesh” opportunity?
I would fully support Slowik if they can’t get to Johnson
Sounds like Johnson to the Commanders is all but confirmed. JS should pivot to Slowik if thats the case.
Don’t give up until it is a done deal. Don’t give up because of rumors.
Do you have any thoughts on why the Hawks have not extended a second interview request to Slowik? I was really hoping to see him on that list of in-person interviews.
Presumably the interest isn’t there. But we’ll see what happens this week
Rob,
Once again, outstanding post! It amazes me how journalists and journalism have fallen off over the past 30 years to the point that they and their readers have become parrots of the trendy statement. I tend to agree with your views for the most part WRT the hawks but that’s only because I appreciate that you put effort into looking at all angles, investigate and discuss context regardless if it supports your views, and you thoroughly explain and support your rationale. Keep it up!
On the draft, do you see JS moving one of the players on a large contract for additional picks? I would think Tyler Lockett would bring a lot of interest from teams with a young QB and WR room.
Thanks again!
I think it’s really hard to find a player whose contract + age matches up with getting anything viable in return via trade, thus they’re probably stuck. Which is why I want to see an offensive-minded HC to max out the investment they’ve made in the skill players
Some have spun a scenario where Shane Waldron says ‘get me Tyler Lockett’ and the Bears can pair him with DJ Moore and Cole Kmet to give Caleb a potent trio, then spend #9 on a pass rusher or an OL piece.
The appeal is Lockett is eminently flexible. He’s produced through the OC changes and QB changes in Seattle. No dropoff.
But that’s also an argument for keeping him.
If they trade him, they’d pick up $7m of cap room and eat almost $20m. And for what? Maybe they could get the Bears’ pick at #75 and give up their fourth round pick, so they’d have 3 Third round picks.
People have been spinning a trade or cut of Lockett for years. It never happens and he just keeps producing. It is not hard to support keeping him for at least one more season.
I think Lockett could explode with a proper offensive-minded schemer leading the team
The possibilities are endless if you get the right HC in Seattle
There’s this thought I cannot get with, that JSN’s rise pushes Lockett out.
It doesn’t. It actually could make him more potent in the hands of a smart coach/coordinator.
They only have one tight end under contract (Dissly) and may not have the money to bring another vet in this year worthy of being a big target.
It seemed like Lockett finally showed some decline last year, right? A few drops, getting bullied more and constantly avoiding contact that is starting to look weak rather than smart. His salary next to Metcalf’s is poor salary cap structure given their roles and with 3 other young talented skill players needing more opportunities to show their potential. A post june cut splits the $20M cap over 2 years and makes it tolerable. Cut Adams, Lockett (both post J), Diggs, Dissly, Mone, Eckridge, Belore, restructure Geno and that should give you around $70M of 2024 cap. Adjust the roster to maximize the new HC vision and young talent. It would add a chunk of dead cap to 2025 but GMs seem to be doing it more and more.
Of all the expensive pieces on the roster, Lockett is the first one that I would keep.
When I watched Diggs miss that deep pass against KC first thought i had was Lockett could do well with Josh Allen. That and Diggs may be on the outs in Buffalo too.
The key info is that haven’t even talked to Macdonald, yet. If Baltimore wins tomorrow, the ship has likely sailed. It appears to be going down one of these paths, although purely speculation based on reported interest:
1. Quinn (HC) with Kafka (OC)
2. Johnson (HC) with Evero\Graham (DC)
One of those options would get me so excited, the other would encourage me to find a CFL team to cheer for.
I wonder if Quinn/Kellen Moore is a package deal? A season or two ago that would have been an elite pair.
I could get behind a Kafka (HC) / Evero (DC) combo.
Moore’s having interviews elsewhere so I suspect not
I can’t imagine MacDonald ‘mooning’ the opposition when they emerge from the tunnel, so, yeah, he’s no Mel Gibson… thank God!
Give me Johnson or Slowik, or anybody (almost) but Quinn
I feel like the knee jerk reaction is to hire a defensive minded HC because the defense was so bad, is just wrong.
An offensive minded HC paired with a very good DC solves the problem on both sides of the ball.
Johnson, Slowick, Kafka are the best options in my opinion.
As does a defensive minded HC paired with an excellent OC. All 3 hires (HC, DC, OC) are pivotal. So is intelligent use of financial resources to optimize talent on the roster.
“As does a defensive minded HC paired with an excellent OC. All 3 hires (HC, DC, OC) are pivotal. So is intelligent use of financial resources to optimize talent on the roster.”
Agree 100% https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/red-one-hundred-percent-100-symbol-1900845583
This is a critical moment. Who John Schneider hires (HC, DC, OC) is going to have repercussions for the next decade. For the Seahawk franchised these hires by John Schneider will go down in infamy. https://www.amazon.com/Day-Infamy-Attack-Tangled-History/dp/1491470828
John Schneider has to get it right. He has to. He no choice. Failure is not an option. https://www.amazon.com/Failure-Not-Option-Mission-Control/dp/1439148813
If John Schneider doesn’t not hire the right people the Seahawks are “Doomed to Wallow in mediocrity!”
Finally: Notice how Jody Allen let Pete Carroll go. Jody Allen did NOT fire John Schneider. To me that says TON. Jody Allen kept John Schneider. I think Jody Allen trust John Schneider to make the right decision.
But as discussed here repeatedly, good OCs are constantly poached for head coaching jobs and are harder to replace.
This is turning into homework at this point. I’m like 4 articles behind! Great work Rob
My apologies 😂 I hope it’s not too much
What if we’ve been looking at the wrong side of the ball in Baltimore? Ravens OC Todd Monken?
I think he’d be great if he gets to bring Lamar with him
😆
I had this same thought earlier today. Monken is 57 (not young/up and coming) but he has had success in Baltimore. How much is due to Jackson? Probably a lot, other worldly talents are funny like that. However, watching Baltimore I get the sense they really are a sum of the parts. Strong running game even without Lamar, use of the tight ends and WR is clever and well schemed. Andrew’s is a strong TE and Flowers has hit the ground running as a rookie but I wouldn’t put the talent on par with say the 49ers across the board.
I remember watching his Southern Miss squad give Petersen and the dawgs a run for their money in a bowl game and was widely impressed with the offensive scheme and his play calling. Obviously at Georgia he was massively successful, however, again the talent advantage was superior but schematically I sensed he played to strengths and schemed tons of success.
Having been a head coach and having a strong fiery demeanor, I think he could galvanize and lead a locker room. Along with seemingly “getting” this generation of offense, I could see him being successful in the seasons to come.
My drawbacks to him are his two stints over the years as an OC in Cleveland under Kitchens 🤣 and OC in TB under Koetter neither of those were successful stops but I question how much was on Monken and how much was on the clown shows he was apart of? I wouldn’t mind an interview or two to figure that out.
Let’s not underestimate how good Lamar has been this year
He has been remarkable
The new coach and John Schneider must be on the same philosophical page to achieve success.
There is no magic offensive or defensive scheme. The trick is finding, acquiring and developing players who fit the scheme.
It’s also about being current. Pete’s defensive scheme was figured out years ago. He never adapted and the players stopped listening to him.
I am excited to see a young mind arrive and mold the team into something new. Nobody knows whether it will work, but the journey will be interesting.
Well you best hoope Dan Quinn isn’t the choice.
Thank you for the spot on analysis. As a faithful Seahawks fan since day one in 1976, with all due respect, I sincerely support the decision to move on from Pete, and am praying we don’t just settle with a familiar face, that I believe is a Pete 2.0. Dan Quinn.
My first pick would be Ben Johnson and if Commanders hire him, my second pick would be Mike MacDonald. Both are young, innovative minds that would give us a fighting chance to keep up with the other three young coaches in the NFC West. Fingers are crossed that John Schneider is also focusing on one of these two as Pete’s replacement, since he will be the one making the final decision.
I am super nervous and quite frankly disappointed to hear Dan Quinn is still the leading candidate and that him and Chip Kelly would be a package deal. Hoping Commanders hire them both so they are out of contention for our job.
We have a ton of young talent and an amazing fan base that mirrors no other. This is our chance to finally get our franchise back on the right track, but it all depends on who Schneider decides is the best fit. GO HAWKS!
I am all in on Ben Johnson. https://blog.apuestasdemurcia.es/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/all-in-1.jpg
Am I missing something to why we wouldn’t have a 2nd interview set with Johnson yet? Is it just purely a matter of BJ doesn’t know his schedule until the outcome of their game?
Either Johnson wants WAS as is being widely reported (and Seattle knows his intentions) OR Seattle will make a strong push this week if Detroit gets eliminated.
I have no idea. I don’t know whether it’s tactical, game-playing, no interest or whatever.
Maybe John is going to turn up at his front door on Monday lunchtime and not take no for an answer? Or maybe they’re going to announce he’s the new Commanders coach 10 minutes after the Lions’ NFC Championship game
Either way — he is the guy to target, 100%
Damn, Rob, hell of an article, couldn’t have laid it all out any better. In today’s NFL, the best defense is a good offense. I would 100% go all in on offense, then create a defense that can get after the QB and cause turnovers. When you count in the “good OC always leaving” problem I don’t see any other way.
Thanks Geoff
I have two hopes for this piece:
1. That people read it as perspective, not an all-out assault on Mike Macdonald (who I like)
2. That it gets plenty of eyes on it — because I think a piece like this is important at a time when people are just rushing to crown MM as the next great defensive wizard
I dont see this piece as an indictment on MM, just that there’s a lot of unknowns. The big one being, can he travel with Baltimores defense and make it work elsewhere, on his own? And can he build an offense or find someone who can? Big questions that can only be answered years after getting the job.
Slowick has not gotten a second interview, which is also concerning. If not Johnson, then …. Lots of underwhelming
Great analysis again, Rob. I agree that Ben Johnson is the better hire; but let me make a case for MacDonald. McVay and Shanahan are light years ahead of us; so let’s fix the other 13 games ( even though the Hawks went 8-5 in those games). Right now we offer zero resistance to the offenses of the Rams & Niners. Maybe MacD can shave 5-7 points a game off those offenses to give us a fighting chance. Like the old saying, “you got to crawl before you can walk.” If he can stop teams like Pittsburgh and Carolina running for 200 yards and eating up time of possession that would be a start.
Honestly, I hope the plan is for someone like Johnson. But, I also hope there is a plan B if it doesn’t happen.
To me though, that seems like settling for 2nd or 3rd best. We can’t compete, so let’s just beat the crappy teams.
I’d rather take the game to SF and LA. The way to do that, IMO, is to use the strength of this roster — which is the weapons on offense
A little more on the snaps:
193 snaps when tied to go with 88 when behind.
How many when ahead? 831.
That is quite simply insane. Yes some of it is due to the defense being good as well. But it cannot be ignored how red-hot this offense is.
(Also why I was stumping so hard all season for the Seahawks to – for the love of God – run the ball. At least give the defense a breather.)
I’m adding this to the piece
You’re the man
So…you’re saying that Macdonald MIGHT be the Brock Purdy of coordinators? =)
😂😂😂
If anyone has any means to share this around to get a few eyes on it online, it’d be much appreciated
I like Macdonald and would be intrigued to see the direction the Seahawks take if he’s appointed. But I’m also surprised that he’s become the darling of Seahawks Twitter without much care or thought into some of the things raised in this article
I am choosing to believe John when he flat out stated that an offensive guy was the right choice. That means no Quinn, no MacDonald, etc. Until I see/hear otherwise, I will cling to HIS words with all my might.
Thanks for another excellent article Rob.
Thanks Mike
What this coaching search has shown me is how badly I wish we had a McShannahan of our own. To watch the wonders McVay has worked over the years offensively and how they have for the most part overperformed relative to talent, I’m starting to dread what lies ahead for the Hawks. As Rob has stated the best Offensive minds have been hired for head jobs over the last several years leaving what feels like a dry market.
I want Johnson so badly but am dreading what happens if he takes the WAS gig. The snowball effect will feel real and I’m not sure any other option will really move the needle for me. To have made this break a couple years ago I think the Hawks would probably have found “their” guy and be ahead of the curve. Instead, sans Johnson where we’re heading scares the shite out of me. Moving on was definitely the right call even if the next HC fails, i can’t help but wonder what the change 2/3 years ago would’ve yielded.
The recent content has been amazing! Kudos!
I’m glad you’re bringing up things that I’ve wondered if some are overlooking. Having only worked for the Harbaughs (and Jim needing to put together a staff himself) really makes you wonder what kind of staff he’d be capable of putting together.
I think another way to look at this coaching hire is what “trio” of coach/coordinators would make the biggest impact. Not sure where a Macdonald trio would fall compared to other.
Thanks
ABQ….anyone but Quinn.
Does JS and his staff never leak any information (unless wanted to) out into the press? Every other organization has leaks all the time too.
The media speculates a lot about what John will do but we never know at all who he really wants. The only info we really can know is his preferences is offense at HC. Hoping he goes to his GB days with offense HC.
No leaks lately. Any leaks in prior seasons may have been by someone who isn’t there anymore? Hmmmm.
John’s pretty good at using the media when he wants to 😂
I think he’s being very deliberate on this occasion, nobody knows anything for a reason
From Tony Pauline’s latest piece:
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-insider-notes-jim-harbaugh-personal-touch-chargers-david-tepper-locker-room-spy-cfl-qwan-tez-stiggers-impressions
Welp.
Well, so much for having a good offense. Looks like we’ll be getting Quinn like it was projected all along 🙄
Not getting Johnson doesn’t mean we have to settle for Quinn. They could hire literally any other candidate.
This X 1,000,000
If it’s Quinn then JS failed massively at this whole thing. He should just pivot to Slowik
A.B.Q.
ABQ
Since Ben Johnson is headed to Washington (presumably) and you’re wanting an offensive mind as our next head coach, who intrigues you outside of Slowick? I could see a few other (new) interviews this week with no other openings. Maybe John hasn’t interviewed his true #1 choice? What about Mike Lafleur? Brian Johnson?
Ben Johnson is my top pick for HC too. But is trying to copy the Lions really plausible? They basically have hit every draftpick for three years in a row. That certainly was the way to build a winner for the Seahawks too in the early 2010s, but it didnt do much for the coordinators that were poached as head coaches from the Hawks of that era.
Still, Johnson seems to be the best bet. Not a slam dunk, but the bet I’d be willing to make from the (possibly) available options.
It’s plausible because we already have a lot of the pieces to make it happen
Just saw this posted on Seahawks sub reddit
https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1751398624700080610
take it as you will.
Better than Quinn.
But John , you said offensive guy, remember?
We’re gonna be the last team to fill the position it would seem. “Deliberate” indeed.
My knee-jerk over-reaction to all of this is that either:
A) The guy JS really wants and is By God going to get is still coaching.
or
2) JS is an indecisive, (borderline) incompetent apple polisher who is about to do something stupid.
Please, for personal reasons, I don’t want a HC who even remotely resembles Skeletor, or whose initials make me think of an Oreo Blizzard. (Both DQ)
My feeling remains that Quinn > Macdonald.
I’ve studied Mac and see little to indicate that he would even move the ball forward for the Seahawks, Ind fact we might be worse. I’m taking down names and numbers of the ‘just get Mac stupid’ media members. It is interesting to me they are also some of the earliest to back Spoon. Also curious that some of them are suddenly down on Johnson – harping on his Bevell connections. Just, very convenient.
For all the Baltimore DVOA #1 , someone give me a list of the former Ravens DCs currently tearing up the league as HC.
Johnson to me is 1, has been, will be. After him? Slowik or Smith, Kafka I guess.
I’d rather see Weaver get the nod than Macdonald, as Weaver has some smoke suggesting he could be a solid executive.
It is fascinating to me how unified the Commies fans are, opinions are almost monolithic. Seattle fans are so fractured and facrionalized – I wonder if this is a hangover from the RW era
Weaver.
He’s tough. I’d love him but he’s an associate and dline coach. Does DC trump that?
Also….he’s a raven. Drafted by them when he went pro. Is he interested in moving up or does it just go…Macdonald to us Weaver moves up?
Dan Viens offers his opinion on why he thinks McDonald will be the next HC of the Seahawks:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signs-pointing-to-seahawks-having-decided-on-their/id1439916957?i=1000643216529
Might have to send him Rob’s article.
Listening to it now.
Rob: Pondering all you have written, there seems to be a very high stakes POKER GAME that JS has been playing against 7 other players. Every team who was dealt cards knows that Ben Johnson is the coveted prize, with Jim Harbaugh a divisive second, i.e. not for everyone. Pats folded early as did the Raiders. Titans settled hung in there until it was clear they didn’t have enough chips and WISELY settled for Callahan. Panthers were never really in the game, while the Chargers had been playing their own game, going all-in for Harbaugh. Atlanta takes their version of DQ , so now it’s just the Commanders and SeaHawks. JS knows he has a good hand, which is why he’s keeping his cards close to the vest; not giving any hints or reads, no bluffs. He’s confident. In fact, if there’s anyone bluffing it’s the Commanders. Washington DC is the capital of mis/dis and mal-information. Everything going round about Johnson/Peters relationship, about Johnson wanting to live in the NE region, about Quinn being a lock for Seattle, the Shrine Bowl reports, etc. has been promulgated and paid for by the Washington establishment. They don’t have the cards and they know it; their only hope of signing Johnson is if JS waivers and throws in his cards. Ain’t gonna happen. Prediction: Tony Pauline and all the other experts (so-called) eat crow as Johnson agrees to be the next SeaHawks Head Coach.
I actually agree with a ton of this. I’ve long thought WAS is not as confident as people think about what happens next for them.
This post gives me hope. I probably should know better with the Seattle Seahawks but I can’t help myself.
This line of thinking reminds why the interview itself is as important as the resume. Maybe MacDonald has the vision and the juice to be successful, maybe not. You got to try to see what’s inside him and not base your assessment solely on his job titles with different teams.
The Seahawks’ coaching decision reminds me of something else I’ve learned by experience, which is that, the decision itself matters, but so does what happens next. Looking back on my own major career moves, the matter of how I embraced each opportunity has been just as important as the opportunity itself.
What I mean to say is that *who* the Seahawks choose is important, but for JS, it’s the beginning of the story, not the end. How JS supports his coach and surrounds him with talent will be just as important as to the coach’s success as the choice of the coach.
Philly has hired Kellen Moore
So unless you get Kafka out of NYG, who exactly is your play caller if you appoint a defensive minded coach???
Been a lot of praise for JS for waiting out this process and if he lands Ben Johnson it’ll be a job well done
But the reason everyone else hired this week was to get into the staff hiring market
And if you don’t have a proper offensive play caller, this isn’t going to end well
Well Johnson or Slowik is there for the hiring no matter what happens from here on out.
That’s all I can reckon.
Andy Dickerson is still under contract.
Half joking/half serious.
Been listening to a lot of talk about stopping mcshannahan…..sounds good.
What’s the plan for the macdonald fans to put pressure in their defenses. Specifically niners.
It just feels very reductive that a better defense by half ( 12 dvoa let’s say) and our offense is still getting over those teams.
None of it makes sense to me
Another defensive coach to completely rebuild the defense which could take a couple of off seasons
While hoping to find a play caller from somewhere (who?) to lead the offense
Or drive your team through the offensive weapons you’ve already invested in and go and find a DC… Wink Martindale if you want the Ravens way
Agreed. It’s the side with the most pieces under contract to get better quicker.
I like Macdonald but I’m dreading talk of signing their players.
Spotrac has Madubuike at 20+ mil / year cap.
Queen at 18 mil/year. And clowney will most likely get his 1yr/8-10 million. That he has a lot of years minus last year.
I like those players and the Ravens don’t have a ton of cap room….bit they have more than us to start with.
Well military doctrine would back up your argument, Rob. Never re-inforce failure. Attack where you are strong. Of course, Tsun Tzu also said that the greatest warrior is the one who can win without fighting, which would make for a pretty boring NFL season.
Such a great piece of writing!!
I can’t be the only one who is at least mildly interested in Detroit ( no) or Ravens losing tomorrow just to see the last pieces fall.
Thanks for the shout.
Adam Schefter on Ben Johnson:
Go get him, Seahawks! Although part of me wonders if this is because they haven’t fulfilled the Rooney Rule yet and don’t want to make interviews seem like a sham this week.
https://t.co/pcHIIrFZUR
More from Schefter:
They got Graham, Kafka and Ejiro in persons this week so they should be compliant now.
I meant Washington, they’ve only done Bieniemy in person I believe and need to do two outsiders, thus Glenn & Weaver this week
This report from Schefter might, sadly, be Washington trying to prevent either from pulling out of the interview if they think it’s futile
“The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to try and emulate the Lions by being an offense-driven team with a complementary defense.”
Totally agree. This was my issue with Pete Carroll and why I felt it was finally time for him to go. He was hopelessly stuck on the idea of recreating the Super Bowl rosters. Instead of prioritizing the o-line interior this off-season, they went with rookies and low cost veterans, then threw a bunch of money and draft capital at the d-line. And even when it became obvious that the team’s strength was on offense and the defense was increasingly porous, Carroll continued to coach hyper-conservatively (e.g. punting near midfield on 4th-and-1).
Completely agree
And they can rectify the issue this off season by hiring Ben Johnson, signing Detroit’s two free agent guards and drafting youth on defense
[Rapoport] The #Seahawks plan to interview #Ravens DC Mike Macdonald for HC this week if Baltimore loses, sources say. If the Ravens win, Seattle has to wait. And SEA seems willing to do so — a la Shane Steichen last year.
https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1751563319343796557
Patience is a virtue
I’m not worried about John’s patience with Macdonald. I’m worried that he is going to hire the next Mike Tomlin. A guy that is always good never great whose season’s turn on the strengths of currently available coordinators.
However unlike Ravens Seattle doesn’t have ( apologies to some fans) enough of an actual cultural framework that says we are the team looks, feels, and does things a certain way.
If it’s Macdonald let’s hope he brings that front 7 coaching and gets some great assistants. As Rob noted it’s already happening with Jim pulling coaches from Michigan for his staff.
For those who can get behind the pay wall, a very nice up-close-and-personal article on MacDonald:
https://theathletic.com/5220295/2024/01/24/mike-macdonald-ravens-defense?source=user-shared-article
Per Rapp: From @NFLGameDay: The #Lions may make QB Jared Goff a rich man (again) this offseason, while his impressive OC Ben Johnson is getting visits from the #Commanders and #Seahawks this week.
Seattle plans to meet for a second time with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson early in the week. After that, the Seahawks’ search committee expects to be in Baltimore if the Ravens lose. That way, it can speak with impressive young defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald for the first time.
Sunday musings as we wait and wait….
In the last decade we’ve seen two solid and one legendary defensive coach run into a wall the day their OC left.
Quinn, Vrabel, Bill.
Listened to a Podcaster I like say it’s no big deal if our OC gets poached under Macdonald because that means we are good….?….even Buffalo has struggled recently along with the Stealers with locking down OC’s that can produce.
There’s a bit of divide here on this site on John. I think most of us our hopeful if guarded. Talk of him holding his cards, slow playing, or getting his choice by waiting. That’s nice and all. I hope he crushes this hire and our team is rolling very soon. However he doesn’t get his “pick.” Two points: 1. That coach has to want to come here which, no guarantees. 2. And this one relates a bit to trader John and his rep…has John always caught the best option in the draft or seen every market up/downswing? Of course not. We all like JSN ( an example) but someone(s) missed the mark by a mile that the best WR rookie was not “the first off the board.” Or the cap hell of missing the safety market greatly by almost one year as that position cratered in value.
We’re all pulling for you John. I know in my bones you would not make those self-knowing statements about OC’s, QB’s, Alex Smith, the direction of the league….simply to ‘zag’, while the league ‘zigs,’ because you have no plan and we are definitely not trying to outsmart the league anymore as that has not worked in a decade.
Rob,
Excellent piece!
Most successful organisations that are set up to succeed and function well are not dependent on who rotates in and out. You pointed out how Baltimore is well run from GM to coach.
Most NFL execs and owners miss this point. It’s the same circus every January. A rehire or retread of HC’s and whoever the ‘hot’ name up and comer is. As you validly point out McDonald could very well fall flat on his face elsewhere outside of Baltimore. Most new hot hires do.
Hope JS reads this article!
PC did well and strived for setting a long lasting culture. But he was too part of it and held too much power. If it was structured more like Baltimore – execs, HC and coordinators could rotate in and out more easily instead of the new regime hire and start over.
Just another well thought out and written article by Rob. So glad you are a Seahawks fan.
My preferences;
1) Ben Johnson
2) Slowik. For his asst coach…. a former HC who’s made plenty of money, hates dealing with the media, won multiple SB’s, has background roots as a D coordinator and knows everyone in the league. Would make a great mentor if you promised him he never had to do PR or deal with the media ever again and might just love riding out his career as it begun as a coordinator.
3) Vrabel
In Brian Nemhauser’s twitter feed, someone asked him if he had read your piece on McDonald.
Brian Nemhauser
@hawkblogger
·
45m
Rob is really clear about who he wants and it’s not Macdonald. Ben Johnson has flaws as well, including his performance against Macdonald. I’d be happy with either.
Brian Nemhauser
@hawkblogger
·
36m
I think Rob makes some good points. I also think he cherry picked stats. Anyone who watched that 49ers game saw how confused Purdy was and how dominant the defense was. He also fails to mention the Ravens D was 19th in pts allowed/25th in yards the year before Macdonald took over
Ah… the ol’ “cherry picking” argument.
Of course, your piece was balanced and actually pointed out the good and the bad.
But no… you are cherry picking to make a case, I guess.
I don’t think I’m the one cherry-picking
I think there’s been an awful lot of cherry-picking when it comes to Macdonald (who I like) and that was the point of the piece — to provide some balance to the fairly limited ‘get him to Seattle’ talk on Twitter
I don’t know why we are trying to gaslight people against each other?
Rob has stated he likes both coaches. He has a preference. Brian has a preference. I rather not drive up drama.
Both coaches have flaws but I would be fine with either.
Cherry picking would be looking at Macdonald in one year and say “look what he’s done!!”
Not cherry picking:
If a franchise has 20+ years of being a dominant defense including just a few years ago when you are a positional coach plus quite a few years when you weren’t on staff and the nearest analog we can find “relative” to that person’s career is looking at the success of Michigan with and without him at the controls.
I like Nemhauser. This is also a guy that thinks it’s going to be easier to build a dominant oline, dominant defense, keep the youth, and get all that done before time reaches out and catches Geno who is ONE game over .500 in two seasons and lamented for around 2-3 weeks that Myers ‘cost,’ Geno the game against the Rams when Myers ( who I don’t care for) was and I mean this…..literally the reason why we were within any scoring position to win in the final moments after Geno did Jack all that whole game.
And also says things regarding Free Agency like: might as well pay so and so cause it’s not like there’s anyone else to spend money on.
People think Rob is negative because he doesn’t sing the Seahawks fight song and think that every practice squad guy is some great steal from another team.
I’ve watched Nemhauser nearly every podcast he’s done for some time. He’s not negative per se. He’s actually deeply apathetic bordering on giving up.
It’s actually really annoyed me to be accused of cherry-picking. That piece took a couple of days to write and deserves a better review than that
The whole point was to offer some perspective to the hype. It fleshed out some interesting points that should be part of the conversation, beyond ‘stats’. It wasn’t designed to stop anyone wanting Macdonald. It’s sole purpose was to provide more meat on the bones for a coach most fans hadn’t heard of eight months ago and a better overall picture of his candidacy
It’s dismissive and lazy to call it cherry-picking, while inferring I have my favourite and that’s why it was written
I have a favourite, sure. I’ve also said all along I’m open to Slowik, Macdonald and Vrabel. I wasn’t that interested in the people getting second interviews last week — but still ‘made the case’ for Quinn and Kafka
So yeah, I think that’s really unfair
I agree Rob.
To just “wave away” the entire article with a baseless accusation of “cherry picking”, is disingenuous and, frankly, disrespectful.
I’ve mentioned this before bit I think a lot of modern analytics is cherry picking.
From PFF grading players with 10’s of snaps to literal 100’s of snap differentials as ‘qualifying.’
To EPA. Pressure rates. S2 ( we hardly knew you).
Sometimes it’s really boring to pull up pro football reference and just look at the info in front of you. Total points. Points allowed. Yards per target. Rushing yards allowed and not take games that don’t fit your point.
I love all the detailed posts.
I think a lot of us would like Macdonald. But there is real mounting evidence that defensive head coaches have an inherent weakness….the day you find a great OC the clock starts on when you lose them and it’s been thus far very hard for those coaches to find another one before time runs out on them.
It boils down to this, like everything else you write: THEY DIDN’T READ THE WHOLE THING. You literally have other pieces talking about how you would like MacDonald coming in and even in this article mention it. Your point was how he is being touted as the immediate fix, the anti McShanaVaynahan wunderkind.
Seahawk fans think that we can just do the opposite of what the league has shown has worked and that we would be outsmarting everyone: defensive coach, journeyman qb, having a “culture” as the backbone of the team.
It does feel like a lot of the time people aren’t debating things I’ve actually written
Reading comprehension is a skill that is not in possession of all people.
The internet has turned a thorough, nuanced take into ‘he hates this guy.’
I don’t think it’s even that, cha. This website has been black-marked by many because we talked about inconvenient things for a long time.
The Russ trade talk is legit — nope, don’t want to believe it or hear it
Jamal Adams trade sucks — nope, you are wrong, don’t want to know
Pete Carroll era is petering out — nope, how dare you, don’t want that talk out there
Jalen Carter won’t be drafted by Seattle — I want him! So nope, don’t want to hear it
There’s more nuance to the Mike Macdonald candidacy — nope! Mina Kimes says he’s a genius so I want to believe that and won’t accept any context
I could go on.
People don’t want to hear these things. So they lash out. Criticise. Smear. They ignore the praise, the positivity, because it doesn’t fit in with how they want to portray SDB.
But eh, bollocks to it. The people who get what this place is about, I like to think, will have felt the benefit over the last few years
I listen to the Hawkblogger podcast, as well.
Overall, I like Brian… but he does seem to have underlying issues with Rob, which irks me, I suppose.
Nothing overt, but he has said things at times that strike me as a tad…disrespectful.
As to his opinions… they are all over the place.
He was super optimistic about this Seahawks team early in the year.
But then, late in the year, he claimed he never thought the team would be that good this year.
He got overly emotional about the Geno Smith discussion, and seemed to be actively cheering against Lock when he played.
He complains about people “confirming their priors”, yet he blatantly does it himself all the time.
When your catch phrase, tag line is a pejorative somewhere else it’s time to change it up.
Re: geno. When you spend an entire season saying everything is the reason for an underperforming player. I mean every single thing….but them….priors confirmed mode activated.
Ah well
Can’t please everyone I guess
There are some that have issues with Rob coming in and doing better/being more accurate than them, watching the wrong soccer, all while him covering “our football” better. Quite a few actually. Jealousy. Even a lot of commenters.
Every radio hit Rob gets a redditor with nothing to offer but reposting others work cries in their basement waiting for their mom to bring them pizza bites.
Could this happen? Seahawks hire Johnson as HC, and MacDonald as DC/co-HC?
No
Probably not.
If MacDonald isn’t hired as a HC, his best bet is to stay put one more season. He would be a top-candidate next year along with Slowik.
Or, could this happen? MacDonald as HC and Slowik as OC/co-HC?
Again, no
So is Slowick just not ready to be an HC ? He seems to be out everywhere.
As so it seems.
Him and Frank Smith fell off really quick. Maybe teams just weren’t impressed with their leadership just yet.
Probably just a bit too green. Give it another year of successful OC duties and he’ll be at the top of some lists
Lamar comes up small again in the playoffs, and Flowers appears to be Baltimores pint size version of DK physical talent but questionable ability to control emotions.