Here is the first release of my horizontal board for the 2025 draft cycle. The board is based on tape study since the summer, with tentative grades offered to the players listed. These will change based on the rest of the college football season, the Senior Bowl and the combine. Let me be clear, this is about 15% of the work that will be done leading up to my final horizontal board in April.
Below you will find the board in its entirety. At the moment it includes 173 scouted draft eligible players. I’ve also written thoughts on each position group and an overall thought on the draft class.
Those marked in red either have current injuries or reported injury concerns/injury history. Click the image to enlarge:
Horizontal board (first draft)
Is it a good draft class?
This is the thinnest class I can recall in terms of legit first round talent and it’s extremely hard to identify players who deserve to go in the top-10/15. If you are a bad football team pinning your hopes on a game-changing first round pick next April, this isn’t the draft class you want to see.
I only have nine players with legit first round grades. This includes a running back and a tight end — not considered premium positions — a ‘complete’ defensive tackle (rather than a game-wrecker), two hybrid linebackers, a cornerback, a safety and two receivers.
I think a player who otherwise might’ve been a good pick in the 30-50 range in previous drafts could end up being the 15th overall pick this year. That’s how thin it is at the top.
I have 95 players graded in the first three rounds, where there are 101 total picks. It is going to be a challenge for a lot of teams to find value.
Quarterbacks
I haven’t given any quarterback a first round grade. I suspect at least one will be taken in the first round and my guess is it’s most likely to be Shedeur Sanders.
I wouldn’t overreact to six QB’s being taken early in the 2024 draft. We’re only two years removed from only one QB going in the first round. In 2022, many in the media projected Malik Willis to go in the top-five. Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and others were also talked up as high picks. All went in the middle rounds. That could happen again in 2025, quite easily. There’s always a chance some quarterbacks sneak into the late first, particularly in a thin draft, due to the fifth year option. But I think a realistic projection right now is we’re more likely to see only 1-3 in the first round, rather than 3-5.
Sanders is arguably the most gifted quarterback but this is paired with occasionally bizarre decision making and concerns about the noise and influence of his father. He’s thrown 20 ‘big time throws’ this year compared to only five ‘turnover worthy plays’.
I’m not sure ‘team Sanders’ are reading the room properly though. They’re talking about dictating where Shedeur plays in the NFL. Is he a good enough player to warrant this? Typically only sure-fire #1 overall picks generate that kind of debate. Shedeur is not at that level. The Sanders family may get their wish — he might land with a non-awful team. It might be because he lasts on the board longer than they think he should.
Garrett Nussmeier has shown a level of technical quality none of the other draft eligible quarterbacks possess. He has a gunslinger’s mentality, he’s throwing NFL-level passes every week and he’s been the most impressive of the quarterbacks so far this season. However, he’s not physically outstanding or elusive and has made mistakes in big moments. He’s thrown 10 TWP’s compared to 15 BTT’s. My guess is he will not declare and will opt for another year starting at LSU. If he does turn pro, there’s a strong chance he will go in round one.
Quinn Ewers has clear natural talent and teams will be more attracted to that than I think many in the media are saying. However, he’s never shown he can stay healthy and consistent. This year is a great example. He started superbly, got injured and his play has been patchy since returning. Teams will need to weigh up his potential versus a college career that hasn’t really taken off, given the huge recruitment hype he had in High School. There will come a point in the draft where the upside of taking a chance on him working out at the next level — albeit as a development prospect — will be too good for a GM to pass. I think the most likely scenario for Ewers is he’ll be taken by a team willing to bring him along slowly, not with the intention of throwing him into a starting role right away. He will go in the first two rounds and the way he ends this season will dictate how high.
Cam Ward is an interesting case. Jim Nagy warned people about the dangers of hype last week, noting Ward wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl at the end of last season and he was receiving day three grades by teams. As a consequence he unusually reneged on a decision to declare for the draft and instead transferred to Miami.
He has since had an excellent season in the ACC. The Hurricanes are unbeaten because of Ward and there’s a lot to be said for that. He has produced dazzling throws, highlight-reel moments and he’s led death-defying late comebacks. He’s also shown off physical tools that were not always obvious at Washington State (I’ve seen him live and he didn’t look physically gifted in person).
However, Miami hasn’t really faced anyone of note so far. It’s been a very friendly run for Ward to build his stock. He also continues to show technical flaws — drifting backwards unnecessarily, instinctively turning to backyard football even when there’s a clean pocket while making horrible decisions that lead to turnovers. This happened just last weekend:
He has done this all season — drifting backwards for no reason. Having put himself in the worst possible position to throw because of his own movements — he then makes a horrendous decision to throw back across his body to midfield.
Ward has undoubtedly improved his stock. I think he warrants day two consideration at the moment, an upgrade from his day three grades a year ago. The challenge for teams will be to establish how much upside he has and whether technical improvements are a.) possible b.) possible without taking away the creative edge that he plays with. I don’t think he will be taken in round one as things stand today.
I’ve placed Kurtis Rourke in round three. Physically he is not impressive to look at. When he was in street clothes against Washington, he looked like a fan who was given a sideline pass. Yet on the field he is an attack-minded, decisive, aggressive, accurate passer who has played extremely well for Indiana. It’s difficult to work out how that will translate to the NFL. I do think he deserves a draftable grade (with quarterbacks, a third round grade for me warrants an ‘I would take them’ rather than the idea I’d run to the podium in round three to take him). Rourke has upcoming games against Ohio State and Michigan that will help further shape his stock. I think he’s a very interesting player who deserves consideration.
I have 13 quarterbacks graded for day three. I like some of these players. Max Brosmer has really improved in recent weeks and is playing superbly for Minnesota. Seth Henigan has some of the tools to make him an interesting prospect. Will Howard shows flashes. However, I don’t think any of the quarterbacks graded in this range are destined to be NFL starters. That includes Carson Beck, who has major issues with ball placement and he’s become highly erratic and turnover prone this season.
Running backs
This is the deepest running back class for some time. It has two top-end stars in Ashton Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson. There’s depth through day two and deep into day three. I have 21 players graded between the first round and the top end of round five and all will have a shot to stick in the league. I haven’t even studied all of the players available yet, that’s how good the depth is this year.
At this position I like prototype size, contact balance, evidence of yards after contact, the desire to finish runs, decisive cuts and quickness/suddenness to exploit opportunities.
Everyone knows about Jeanty by now but I want to speak about Iowa’s Johnson. For me, he is another player with star potential. I’m not sure what Iowa’s record would be without him. He is a special talent with the combination of size, speed, power and home-run hitting capability. He should be a top-50 lock and will likely go earlier based on the thin first round in 2025.
I also think this is a running back class where a lot of players are yet to play their best football. There’s going to be a ton of value to be had here. Keep an eye in particular on DJ Giddens and Nicholas Singleton. Giddens often reminds me of a poor man’s Alvin Kamara while Singleton is so explosive, dynamic and quick.
Wide receiver
I’m listing Travis Hunter as a receiver because I think that’s where he’ll do the most damage at the next level. He could easily be the #1 overall pick. Luther Burden has had a muddled role within Missouri’s offense — which is fairly conventional. It’s prevented him from having the opportunity to put up major numbers but I think he’s shown enough to be classified as a top-end talent worthy of being a high first round pick.
Tetairoa McMillan is just a naturally gifted player. He gives off a vibe of being born to play receiver. He’s admitted he likely won’t jump a very good vertical at the combine and his testing could underwhelm. Yet his natural gifts will still secure a home in round one.
I do think some of the receivers talked up by the media are a bit overrated. I also think Ricky White III and Xavier Restrepo are being underrated and have as good a chance as anyone to come into the league and develop into very effective NFL pass-catchers. Elic Ayomanor and Tai Felton could also provide plus value in the third round range and keep an eye on former Washington State wide out Josh Kelly. I really liked him last year and he’s continued to play well for Texas Tech.
Tight end
I don’t think it’s an overly deep class at tight end but there are some very interesting players available. If Michigan had a proper quarterback, Colston Loveland would be widely considered a top-12 lock. He is a superb player and worthy of a legit first round grade.
Tyler Warren is a unique player — he has fantastic size, agility and hands. Penn State use him as a blocker, pass-catcher, runner and occasional passer. If he tests as well as the tape suggests he might, there’s no reason why he can’t find a home in round one.
Luke Lachey is one my favourite players in the draft. He’s a typical Iowa tight end — unselfish, blue-collar, more athletic than you realise and a willing blocker. I would happily take him in the top-50, pre-testing, and think he has a chance to become the next excellent tight end from his school.
LSU’s Mason Taylor, like Lachey, has excellent NFL bloodlines and the ability to do everything at a high level. Harold Fannin Jr at Bowling Green is an X-factor weapon who could also find a home in round two. Mitchell Evans and Elijah Arroyo are also worth a mention as early round three possibilities.
If you want a good quality tight end you might need to take one early — but there are some appealing options available.
Offensive tackle
It’s an awful year at the position, after a loaded 2024 class. Most of the high-profile tackles in college football are guards in the NFL. Ohio State’s Josh Simmons was the clear top left tackle for me and he’s out for the season with an injury. I have no other tackle with a grade in the first two rounds.
Aireontae Ersery looks a bit stiff and sluggish with his feet to stay at left tackle and will likely need to move to the right side. He’s said to be a promising athlete so testing could secure a place in round two but I didn’t see anything close to a first round pick on tape.
Charles Grant is a small-school athlete who could provide round three value. He needs to prove he has a mean streak to match the athletic tools. Texas’ Cameron Williams has been a turnstile for the last two weeks. He has impressive size and physical potential but his technique is all over the place. He needs to return to school and get more game time to work on his craft.
Guard
The options here are inflated by the number of tackles I believe will need to kick inside. This includes Kelvin Banks (who could be another Alijah Vera-Tucker), Josh Conerly (has nowhere near the size to stick at tackle), Jonah Savaiinaea (giving up way too many pressures off the edge), Jack Nelson (could be really good at guard, probably a middling tackle), Will Campbell (32-inch arms) and Emery Jones (just hasn’t played well at right tackle although I like his aggression).
Tyler Booker is the best pure guard in the class. His attitude, size, athleticism and finishing ability should secure a first round placing. I think he would be a tremendous option for the Seahawks, slotting in at left guard as a week one starter. Donovan Jackson, who is filling in at left tackle during a crisis for Ohio State, has excellent physical upside and the ceiling to be one of the better left guards in the league.
I really like the way Banks, Conerly, Savaiinaea and Nelson coould fit in at guard. I think this is good news for the Seahawks. They will have opportunities to upgrade the position next April with their first and/or second round picks.
On day two, Dylan Fairchild is a ‘steady Eddie’ for Georgia. Sometimes that’s all you need. I think he’s a superior player to team mate Tate Ratledge, whose play is a bit up and down. I think the problem with Will Campbell is he lacks the length to stick outside and he doesn’t play with the violence you want to see at guard. He and right tackle Emery Jones have given up a lot of pressures this year.
Center
There’s little depth at center but there are some attractive options from what’s available.
Iowa’s Logan Jones has a chance to be the next top center in the league. He has the physical testing — agility, explosive traits, unreal squat numbers — to be an elite player at his position. This year he has taken a major technical leap and his performance has rapidly improved.
I have Jones graded as a top-40 pick. I’m not sure he will actually go that early — but if he lasts beyond the 50th pick, he will provide outstanding value. Centers do, sometimes, last longer than their talent suggests they should. There’s too much upside, growth on tape, physical excellence and intensity (loved him getting a Bozeman-style 15-yard penalty recently) to ignore. Jones is a legit talent for the NFL and given Seattle’s endless chopping and changing at the position, should be firmly on their radar.
He is not the only interesting prospect. Texas’ Jake Majors has had an outstanding season. He too is also an excellent athlete with the toughness and attitude to be a top-level starter. There’s absolutely nothing preventing Majors from becoming an accomplished top-end starter at the next level.
I’ve been a fan of Parker Brailsford’s after watching him excel for Washington and he continues to show a lot of upside and potential at Alabama. Size measurements will be key for him and will determine his stock but there’s no doubting his ability.
The two other players I want to mention are Jared Wilson and Josh Kreutz. Georgia’s Wilson is highly athletic thanks to a soccer background and he’s played fundamentally sound, consistent football all year. He’s not an aggressively outward player (I think that’s what Seattle needs up front) but he is a good combo of mistake-free with plenty of physical upside. Illinois’ Kreutz is a tough, angry player who loves to get after it 1v1.
EDGE
It’s not a great edge rusher class. Josaiah Stewart is my top graded player. At times he has been unstoppable for Michigan — wrecking the USC game and providing consistent pressure. He clearly leads every other player in college football for pass rush win percentage (25.6%). I suspect he will be on Seattle’s radar — Wink Martindale is said to love Stewart and he features in a Baltimore-style defense. Size measurements and testing will determine how early he goes.
James Pearce Jr is more likely to be drafted early and he certainly looks the part. He’s second for pass rush win percentage at 22%. I just worry about his ability to set the edge and be more than a pure pass rusher. It would’ve also been nice to see him wreck a game or two this year — something Stewart has achieved.
I think the Ohio State duo of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are overrated and deserve middle round grades. Kyle Kennard has had a brilliant season but expectations are very low on his testing profile, which would limit his upside. LSU’s Harold Perkins suffered a season-ending knee injury early in the season.
Defensive end
Mykel Williams was excellent against Texas but he’s had to deal with injuries this year. He’s only ever played in bursts in his career at Georgia. Upside will likely put him in the round one mix but the expectation that he could drive his stock into the top-10 hasn’t happened yet.
There’s limited depth based on what I’ve seen so far. Nic Scourton has had his moments for Texas A&M but he’s a bigger defender and doesn’t play with a lot of twitch. Those types often struggle to have much of an impact in the league. It feels to me like he’ll be another Boogie Basham — someone talked up endlessly by draft twitter who doesn’t go anywhere near as early as some think he will.
Defensive tackle
Mason Graham is one of the very best players in the draft and one of the few legit top-10 prospects. He isn’t a game-changing pass rusher but he does everything well. Whichever team takes him will not be disappointed.
South Carolina’s TJ Sanders is my DT2 on the board. He has legit pass-rushing quality (14.6% pass rush win percentage) and has shown the ability to impact games against good opponents. I think there’s a reasonable chance, in this class, he finds a home in round one.
I think there are some overrated players in the class too. Walter Nolen is more upside than anything while Deone Walker is big and aggressive but he is a difference maker at the next level? I really like Tyleik Williams but he has short arms and hasn’t developed as a pass rusher. Kenneth Grant has been underwhelming to watch and is more athlete than impact player. Derrick Harmon has played well for Oregon but doesn’t have the prototype profile of an early pick.
Linebacker
This isn’t a very impressive group. I think you have a collection of bigger name, ho-hum types and a couple of stars at the top end. Abdul Carter and Jalon Walker are hybrid pass rushers who can act as conventional linebackers too. Both could/should go in the top-10. Meanwhile, Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell is built like a tank and can move — so expect him to go in the top-60.
After that, I’ve been mostly unimpressed with the group. Deontae Lawson plays well at the LOS but looks a bit stiff and slow and I’m not sure how he’ll handle working in space. Danny Stutsman and Barrett Carter didn’t really stand out to me. Cody Lindenberg is the same but at least he’s expected to test well.
Two players who have stood out on tape are Ohio State’s Cody Simon and South Carolina’s Demetrius Knight — I’m just not sure if their respective testing profiles will suggest they warrant high grades.
Cornerback
I haven’t studied this group that much so far so my list is limited.
Michigan’s Will Johnson should go in the top-10, even if his season has been impacted by minor injuries. East Carolina’s Shavon Revel would’ve been a top-20 pick but for a season-ending knee injury. He might still go in that range, given the lack of depth in this draft.
Benjamin Morrison is a good player who is also out for the year through injury. Ohio State’s Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun show flashes of quality but also flashes of disappointment. They’re both inconsistent. I really enjoyed watching Illinois’ Xavier Scott but think he’s limited to the slot.
Safety
Malaki Starks is a legit top-15 pick who could even find a home in the top-10 due to the class. Nick Emmanwori is a remarkable combination of size and athleticism and teams could view him as being capable of handling a Kyle Hamilton style role at the next level. When he tests better than people realise, his stock will go off.
Kevin Winston Jr likely would’ve been considered a high pick too but he’s been out with a long-term injury for a while. Aside from that, there are a collection of players who warrant day three grades. As with most positions, it’s a thin looking group.
Final thoughts
The good news for the Seahawks is they will have an opportunity to improve their offensive line in the 2025 draft. The bad news is it’s a thin looking class with little depth — meaning it’ll be difficult to project areas where you can feel confident about getting players you like.
If most of the quarterbacks declare the Seahawks will have opportunities to finally draft one for only the third time in a 15-year spell for John Schneider. I’m not sure he’ll want to — once again this is not a class full of quarterbacks he is typically attracted to. If he wants a talented Brett Favre style creative gunslinger, who is that in this draft? I do think he might admire the upside of Ewers and a couple of others.
The key questions for me currently are — will they be picking high enough for one of Abdul Carter or Jalon Walker? If so (and they take one of them), can they still sufficiently address the offensive line? Will they be picking early enough to take Kelvin Banks, assuming they’re comfortable moving him inside? Will a draft where they take, say, Tyler Booker and Logan Jones/Jake Majors finally set them on a path to improve up front? I’d still say they need to invest in experienced offensive linemen on top of this, regardless of their draft plans.
